Accident Analysis and Prevention 91 (2016) 190–199

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Accident Analysis and Prevention

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/aap

Spatial regression analysis of traffic crashes in Seoul

Kyoung-Ah Rhee a,1 , Joon-Ki Kim b,∗ , Young-ihn Lee a,1 , Gudmundur F. Ulfarsson c,2
a
Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, Main Campus, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, Republic of Korea
b
Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements, National Infrastructure Research Division, 224 Simin-daero, Dongan-gu, Anyang-si, Gyeonggi-do 14067,
Republic of Korea
c
University of Iceland, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hjardarhagi 2-6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Traffic crashes can be spatially correlated events and the analysis of the distribution of traffic crash
Received 31 May 2015 frequency requires evaluation of parameters that reflect spatial properties and correlation. Typically this
Received in revised form 26 August 2015 spatial aspect of crash data is not used in everyday practice by planning agencies and this contributes to
Accepted 26 February 2016
a gap between research and practice. A database of traffic crashes in Seoul, Korea, in 2010 was developed
at the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level with a number of GIS developed spatial variables. Practical spatial
Keywords:
models using available software were estimated. The spatial error model was determined to be better
Spatial econometrics
than the spatial lag model and an ordinary least squares baseline regression. A geographically weighted
Policy analysis
Transportation planning
regression model provided useful insights about localization of effects.
Spatial data The results found that an increased length of roads with speed limit below 30 km/h and a higher ratio
Traffic analysis zone (TAZ) of residents below age of 15 were correlated with lower traffic crash frequency, while a higher ratio
Spatial correlation of residents who moved to the TAZ, more vehicle-kilometers traveled, and a greater number of access
points with speed limit difference between side roads and mainline above 30 km/h all increased the
number of traffic crashes. This suggests, for example, that better control or design for merging lower
speed roads with higher speed roads is important. A key result is that the length of bus-only center lanes
had the largest effect on increasing traffic crashes. This is important as bus-only center lanes with bus
stop islands have been increasingly used to improve transit times. Hence the potential negative safety
impacts of such systems need to be studied further and mitigated through improved design of pedestrian
access to center bus stop islands.
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Traffic crash risk may vary significantly across similar, or even
identical, road geometry and conditions. This heterogeneity is due
in part to traffic crashes being spatiotemporal occurrences which
are likely not independent across space. A spatial analysis of traffic
crashes allows for the consideration of various spatial factors affect-
ing crash occurrence. Furthermore, it can be determined whether
spatial factors can be controlled for or not, and if spatial factors can
enhance the development of effective planning, policy or engineer-
ing solutions to reduce traffic crashes.
There have been important improvements in analytic methods
for traffic crash analysis but there is still a gap between practical
∗ Corresponding author. Fax: +82 31 380 0484.
E-mail addresses: lka1974@snu.ac.kr (K.-A. Rhee), kimjoonki@krihs.re.kr
(J.-K. Kim), yilee@snu.ac.kr (Y.-i. Lee), gfu@hi.is (G.F. Ulfarsson).
1
Fax: +82 2 871 8847.
2
Fax: +354 525 4362.
methods and the frontier of research (Mannering and Bhat, 2014).
The handling of spatial correlation is one area with a considerable
gap between practice and research. Spatial analysis requires large-
scale spatial data in a format amenable for geographic information
system (GIS) analysis. The location of this study is the City of Seoul,
Korea, which is a large, dynamic city with enormous amounts of
data. The infrastructure for spatial analysis by GIS has recently been
established in Seoul.
This paper presents an investigation aiming to put the standard
models of spatial analysis into practice—acknowledging that there
are even more advanced methods available—to demonstrate the
use of newly available spatial datasets. Second, this study aims to
identify factors affecting traffic crashes in Seoul based on spatial
analysis to guide development of new effective projects to reduce
crashes.
Previous studies on spatial characteristics of traffic crashes have
identified or suggested various spatial variables related to traf-
fic crashes. Some variables have clear trends in different studies
conducted in various regions. Population and traffic volume vari-

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2016.02.023
0001-4575/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 K.-A. Rhee et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 91 (2016) 190–199
ables, e.g., annual average daily travel (Venkataraman et al., 2013)
and vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) (de Guevara et al., 2004; Aguero-
Valverde and Jovanis, 2006; Hadayeghi et al., 2003; Karlaftis and
Tarko, 1998; Quddus, 2008), reflect exposure and were positively
correlated with frequency of traffic crashes. So is also pedes-
trian exposure an important factor for crash frequency in dense
urban areas (Lam et al., 2013). Crash occurrence increased as
the road length increased (Levine et al., 1995; de Guevara et al.,
2004; Aguero-Valverde and Jovanis, 2006; Hadayeghi et al., 2003;
Karlaftis and Tarko, 1998; Quddus, 2008; Venkataraman et al.,
2014b). Higher traffic signal density and AADT occupancy ratio
of trucks led to increased number of crashes (Huang et al., 2010;
Siddiqui et al., 2012).
The trends of several variables, however, remain unclear. Degree
of urbanization (Noland and Quddus, 2004) and the ratio of vol-
ume to capacity (Hadayeghi et al., 2003), which are proxy variables
for traffic congestion, have been found negatively correlated to
crash severity. Shefer and Rietveld (1997) maintained that poli-
cies aimed at reducing traffic congestion may lead to unexpected
consequences in terms of traffic safety. Studies have suggested
that improving road geometrics affects traffic crashes and fatalities
(Noland, 2003; Noland and Quddus, 2004; Noland and Oh, 2004;
Venkataraman et al., 2011). Some studies have suggested that a
higher speed limit has an effect on major traffic crashes due to the
behavior of some drivers to go faster than the speed limit (Siddiqui
et al., 2012).
In terms of demographic indices, more crashes occurred in areas
with higher population density (de Guevara et al., 2004; Levine
et al., 1995; Hadayeghi et al., 2003) and greater pedestrian exposure
(Yao et al., 2015), whereas less densely populated regions expe-
rienced a higher ratio of traffic crashes leading to severe injuries
(Noland and Quddus, 2004). To rationalize this result, it is nec-
essary to understand the relationships among population density,
traffic volume, and traffic crashes. In general, it may be expected
that higher population density increases traffic volume and this
in turn increases traffic conflicts and consequently the number of
traffic crashes. However, increased traffic volume leads to conges-
tion, which reduces speed differences among the vehicles and may
decrease the likelihood of fatality in a crash. On the other hand,
areas with low population density and traffic volume have a lower
number of traffic crashes, but the speed difference among the vehi-
cles will be greater such that traffic crashes may be more severe
when they occur. This shows that population density or traffic vol-
ume variables cannot be used alone to determine the risk of traffic
crashes.
Socio-demographic data has often been included in research, for
example age, gender and level of education distributions of the pop-
ulation. Some studies report that a higher ratio of the population
aged 75 years or older leads to a lower number of traffic crashes,
while others report increases in casualties (Karim et al., 2013;
Huang et al., 2010; Noland and Quddus, 2004; Aguero-Valverde
and Jovanis, 2006). Various conclusions were drawn from variables
related to younger drivers. Variables related to trip generation have
been included in the form of trip production and attraction for each
trip purpose and amount of attracted traffic per unit area (Naderan
and Shahi, 2010). However, not all trip production or attraction was
always positively correlated with traffic crashes.
Main socio-economic variables considered in prior research
were income levels, ratio of households without a vehicle, and
unemployment rate. More impoverished regions had higher traffic
crash frequencies whereas crashes involving pedestrians occurred
less frequently in regions with high unemployment rate or high
income levels and more frequently in regions with higher young
adult population density (Noland and Quddus, 2004; Quddus, 2008;
LaScala et al., 2004). Loukaitou-Sideris et al. (2007) asserted that
the risk of a pedestrian traffic crash is higher in regions with
191
lower income level when other risk factors are controlled. Aguero-
Valverde and Jovanis (2006) also reported that a higher ratio of
persons under the poverty level was indicative of a higher number
of traffic crashes. Noland and Quddus (2004) and Quddus (2008)
used wards of census-level as their unit of analysis, and Noland
(2003) analyzed the 50 states of the U.S. to reach the previously
mentioned conclusion. Huang et al. (2010) criticized that the effect
of low income level on traffic safety has not yet been clearly
explained, and expected that in general the residents of wealth-
ier regions will be less likely to engage in risky activities, thereby
leading to safer environment in those areas.
The objective of this paper is to demonstrate a practical pro-
cedure for a policy analysis of traffic crashes which accounts for
spatial correlation in a major metropolis. For the procedure to be
practical, data available at the TAZ level is used and standard spa-
tial regression methods in available software are applied. This paper
will systematically test the major effects discussed above and local
features using spatial models and data from Seoul.
2. Data
Seoul is the capital of Korea and its center of politics, economy,
society, and culture. Geographically, the area of Seoul is 605.27 km2
and the longitudinal distance is 30.3 km. Although Seoul accounts
for only 0.6% of the total area in South Korea, more than one
fifth of the Korean population, 10.4 million people, populate the
metropolitan city. In Seoul, 39,743 traffic crashes were recorded in
2010, with 390 casualties and 34% of the crashes resulting in serious
injuries.
The objective of this research is to contribute to a practical
analytic process for planning agencies. The unit of analysis was
therefore the standard traffic analysis zones (TAZ) of Seoul. There
are 423 TAZs in the city and the available data for them is shown
in Table 1. Recent research on the appropriate geographical unit
of analysis for traffic safety was reviewed, especially Siddiqui et
al., (2012), Abdel-Aty et al. (2013), Wang and Kockelman (2013),
and Lee et al. (2014). Lee et al. (2014) pointed out that the size of
some TAZs is too small for macroscopic safety analysis and sug-
gested a new zoning method, the so-called traffic safety analysis
zone (TSAZ), which is based on merging multiple TAZs into a single
larger TSAZ using specific rules. Lee et al. (2014) found that using
TSAZs yields a better statistical fit than using regular TAZs. How-
ever, the use of more sophisticated areas than the regular TAZs
is not immediately practical due to numerous data sources being
only available for the TAZs. It would presently require imputation
or interpolation of data to change the unit of analysis. The TAZs in
Seoul are somewhat large. The minimum area of TAZs (0.09 mi2 )
in Seoul is larger than the minimum TAZ (0.021 mi2 ) but smaller
than the minimum TSAZ (1.51 mi2 ) in the study of Lee et al. (2014).
Due to the relatively large size of TAZs in Seoul, there was no TAZ
without crash and TAZs without a severe crash in Seoul are only 3
(0.7%). However, in the study by Lee et al. (2014) there are 341 TAZs
(30.6%) and 71 TSAZs (14.2%) without a severe crash.
Since the size of the TAZs varies considerably in Seoul it is nec-
essary to account for the differences in size in the models using
size-dependent variables. This study had the land area of each TAZ,
vehicle-kilometers-traveled in a year, the number of subway and
transit stops, along with various other data which capture the effect
of the size of the TAZs. These variables are tested in the models.
This research deals with the limitation of geocoding crashes
into TAZs by using a GIS system. The Korea Road Traffic Authority
(KoROAD) manages the crash database under the Traffic Safety Act,
which is called TAAS (Traffic Accident Analysis System). The TAAS
database is based on GIS and all crashes have (x, y) location coor-
dinates accurate enough to specify the travel direction on major
192 K.-A. Rhee et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 91 (2016) 190–199

Table 1
Data description.

Variables Mean Min Max S.D.

Crash Number of all crashes 93.96 1 544 67.18

Number of fatal and severe injury crashes 34.95 0 179 23.96
Number of minor injury crashes 59.01 1 365 44.32

Traffic Area of TAZ (km2 ) 1.43 0.23 12.69 1.59

Vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT) 208,878 2302 3,003,142 267,285
Number of subway stations and bus stops 23 1 83 13
Trip production for automobiles in TAZ (vehicles/day) 12,575 1631 112,025 10,996
Number of crosswalks in TAZ 76 1 359 49
Number of school zones in TAZ 2.36 0 8 1.56

Road network Ratio of road length in TAZ to total length (%) 2.74 0.06 7.54 1.37
Road length with posted speed 30 km/h (centerline m) 2461 0 13,521 1915
Road length with posted speed 50 km/h (centerline m) 1054 0 11,828 2010
Road length with posted speed 60 km/h (centerline m) 3020 0 18,340 2314
Length of central bus-only lane (lane m) 627 0 4302 804
Length of major arterial (centerline m) 1342 0 10,458 1592
Total lane meters (lane m) 24,757 3756 91,726 12,793
Number of access points where speed limit difference with mainline is over 30 km/h 4 0 85 11
Number of major 3-legged signalized intersections 10 0 87 10
Number of major 4-legged signalized intersections 4 0 25 4
Number of major 5-legged signalized intersections 0 0 3 0

Demographic Population 23,139 809 49,837 8596

Number of households 8277 274 18,924 3104
Number of employees in TAZ 10,629 700 141,960 16,154
Population ratio younger than 15 years old (%) 13.68 5.41 21.73 2.83
Population ratio older than 64 years old (%) 10.00 5.11 17.79 2.25
Population ratio under poverty limit (%) 1.68 0 19.54 2.15
Population ratio of males (%) 49.14 42.37 60.52 1.69
Population ratio of those moving to TAZ in year (%) 17.97 10.52 62.66 5.00

Socio-economic & neighborhood Household income, monthly average (decile) 4.36 2.50 8.74 1.28
Number of elementary and lower schools 19 0 101 12
Mixed land use index (0–1) 0.33 0.05 0.63 0.10
Ratio of large planned condominium/apartment (APT) complexes in TAZ (%) 52.24 0 100.00 30.50
Price of land ($/m2 ) 2638 40 16,512 1805

roads. Therefore, it is straightforward to aggregate crashes accu-
rately for each TAZ since their boundaries lie on the centerlines
of major roads. This does, however, mean that on the boundary,
crashes in one direction are in one TAZ and crashes in the other
direction are in another TAZ. This is a limitation in terms of identi-
fying a crash location that is systematic across all lanes and for both
travel directions but specific location is not the purpose of analysis
for aggregated crashes in an entire TAZ.
Trip production in each TAZ was collected from the Seoul
Metropolitan Household Travel Survey. Vehicle-kilometers trav-
eled (VKT) within each TAZ were estimated from the transportation
demand analysis software package Emme/3. To improve the VKT
estimation, traffic volume and speed data collected annually at
major locations in Seoul were used in the adjustment of the trans-
portation demand estimate.
Road and safety facility data and a base map were obtained from
the Seoul Metropolitan Government and the Seoul TOPIS (Transport
Operation and Information Service). Similar to the crash data, the
road lengths (centerline meters), number of major crossroads, and
number of safety facilities were grouped by TAZ.
Data such as population, dwelling type, employment, land use,
land price, and household income were obtained from the Seoul
statistics database.
The definitions of most variables are straightforward and similar
to previous studies but a few require more explanation. We use the
number of access points where speed limit differs from that of the
main road by over 30 km/h in absolute value. It is expected that
the connection of two roads with significant speed difference will
increase the probability of unexpected traffic events and lead to a
higher frequency of crashes.
The mixed land use index (MLI) denotes the extent of mixed use
of land (Kockelman, 1997). The value of MLI is between 0 and 1, with
0 denoting homogeneous land use and 1 denotes mixed land use.
Land use in Seoul was classified into five categories (residential,
commercial, industrial, entertainment, and green) in calculating
the MLI.
Household income is the monthly average income of a house-
hold. Income is classified into 10 groups. The mean of 4.36 in Table 1
means the monthly average household income is about $4360.
The ratio of large condominium/apartment complexes (APT
areas) in each TAZ is the area ratio of large condominium/apartment
complexes within the TAZ. Of the various housing types (e.g.,
single-family detached house, multi-family attached housing, and
apartment buildings) in Seoul, APT areas, such as so-called new
towns, often lead to improvement in the traffic environment. Seoul
contains both older areas that developed naturally over a number
of years as well as planned, high-density new towns. The relation-
ship of such changed spatial environment with traffic crashes was
therefore also investigated.
3. Methods
Spatial autocorrelation occurs when events occurring at dif-
ferent but nearby locations are correlated. This is quite likely to
occur for traffic crashes within a city. Spatially autocorrelated data
should not be analyzed by normal regression analysis as the corre-
lation violates the basic assumption of ordinary least squares (OLS)
regression. A straightforward spatial regression analysis uses a spa-
tial weight matrix and maximum likelihood estimation in order to
minimize this bias (Anselin and Griffith, 1988; LeSage, 1998, 1999;
LeSage and Pace, 2009).
In a typical current investigation by a transportation or plan-
ning agency, OLS is used on the number of crashes or the crash
rate. Crashes are discrete, non-negative integer values so it would
 K.-A. Rhee et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 91 (2016) 190–199
be more appropriate to use a count model. Many such models have
been developed and described in the literature. The Poisson and
negative binomial models are the most basic but a whole typology
of such models is available. The advanced model variants are not in
general use at planning agencies although work is underway to put
them into more practice (Venkataraman et al., 2014a). The count
models are especially useful when considering small areas, such as
1 km road sections or intersections, with time windows up to one
year since then the crash frequency is typically low. However, when
using large areas on an annual basis, with dozens of crashes, the
practical benefits of count models become lesser and even negligi-
ble. OLS is therefore still being actively used by agencies to model
crash frequencies in large areas over long time periods.
This work intends to meet agencies where they are and there-
fore begins with OLS as the basis and the dependent variable, Yi , is
the natural logarithm of the total number of traffic crashes in each
TAZ in one year. Since no TAZ in this data set has zero crashes, the
use of the natural logarithm does not pose problems due to zeros.
The logarithm was taken for normality reasons and to ensure a
non-negative crash frequency. Spatially autocorrelated extensions
of OLS have now become standard to many software packages and
are textbook material.
Spatial dependence can be denoted as in Eq. (1) (Anselin and
Griffith, 1988). TAZ locations i and j are affected by values of neigh-
boring regions. In a time series the influence is unidirectional and
one-dimensional but in space the effect is bidirectional and two-
dimensional,
 
Yi = f Yj , where i, j = 1, . . ., n; i =
/ j,
and Yi is the natural logarithm of the number of crashes in TAZ i
in one year. Spatial heterogeneity can be represented by Eq. (2),
which implies that regression coefficients on dependent variables
change with TAZ location i (LeSage, 1999; LeSage and Pace, 2009).
εi is an unobserved error term assumed to be independently and
identically distributed normal(0, 2 ),
Yi = Xi ˇi + εi where i = 1, . . ., n.
The form of the general spatial model is (Anselin and Griffith,
1988):
Y = W1 Y + Xˇ + ,
 
 = W2  + ε where ε∼MVN 0,  2 In ,
where Y , the dependent variable, is a (n × 1) vector of the nat-
ural logarithm of crashes in the n TAZs in a year, X is a (n × k)
matrix of k explanatory variables,  and  are spatial autoregres-
sive coefficients, W1 and W2 are (n × n) spatial weight matrices,
 is the unobserved error term which now can possibly incorpo-
rate spatial correlation through its first term, ε is a (n × 1) vector of
unobserved error terms, identically and independently distributed,
MVN denotes the multivariate normal distribution, In is the (n × n)
identity matrix.
In Eq. (3), the model becomes a spatial lag model (SLM) when
the spatial weight matrix of the error term (W2 ) is 0, and a spatial
error model (SEM) when the spatial weight matrix of the depen-
dent term (W1 ) is 0. In the SLM, a dependent variable in a particular
region is subject to spill-over effects from the dependent variable
in neighboring regions. This effect is realized by the spatial weight
matrix, (W1 ). Similarly, in the SEM model the error in one region is
dependent on the error in neighboring regions through W2 . Here,
the spatial weight matrices W1 and W2 are defined using the rook
method of the spatial contiguity matrix proposed by Anselin and
Griffith (1988). The rook method defines neighbors such that if a
part of the boundaries of two regions is shared, the correspond-
ing element of the spatial weight matrix, Wij , is 1 but 0 otherwise.
193
The GeoDa 1.5.37 beta (Anselin, 2005) software was used for the
analysis.
An even more sophisticated approach would develop a spa-
tial count model. The primary such model in the literature is the
conditional autoregressive model (Quddus, 2008), which is even
available for multivariate settings (Wang and Kockelman, 2013)
where multiple dependent variables can be modeled simultane-
ously, e.g., multiple severity categories. There is still a practical gap
before these advanced methods can be put into general use at agen-
cies. These models require Bayesian estimation methods such as the
Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, which means a greater effort
is needed for specification and estimation of these models. As the
research advances, such methods can hopefully soon be made more
practical for everyday agency use.
OLS assumes the regression coefficients of the explanatory
variables are the same in all locations of the analyzed area. The
Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) (Fotheringham et al.,
2002) relaxes this constraint by allowing each regression coeffi-
cient to vary as a function of location. GWR has a smaller residual
and less spatial dependence than OLS, is consistent with the data,
and can be used to visually analyze spatial variation thanks to recent
incorporation in GIS (DeMers, 2004; LeGates 2005; Lo and Yeung,
2002). The GWR is described by Eq. (4), where i is the TAZ:
yi = ˇ0i + ˇ1i x1i + ˇ2i x2i + . . . + ˇki xki + εi . (4)
The GWR regression is performed here using a Gaussian form
kernel with a fixed bandwidth such that all regression points con-
tain the same number of sample points. It is known that GWR
(1)
is affected more by the bandwidth than the form of the kernel
(Fotheringham et al., 2002). The appropriate bandwidth may be
calculated by minimizing the cross validation (CV) value, which
is the difference between the observed and the estimated value,
or by minimizing AICc, which additionally considers the complex-
ity of the model. The bandwidth was calculated using AICc in this
study. The GWR is performed using the GWR 4.0 software pack-
age (Nakaya, 2009).Moran’s I (Moran, 1950) is used to test if the
(2) model residuals are spatially clustered. Moran’s I near +1 means
that regions with high values are spatially near each other, and
Moran’s I near −1 means that regions with high and low values
are evenly distributed. The Lagrange Multiplier (LM) method was
used to test if spatial autocorrelation still exists after removing the
spatial effect in the spatial lag model and the spatial error model.
The Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) (Hurvich
(3)
et al., 1998) was used to compare the goodness of fit of the mod-
els. The best fit among the models is indicated by the lowest AICc.
The AICc is useful for comparing models that use different explana-
tory variables in models of the same dependent variable. In general,
models are regarded as not significantly different when their dif-
ference of AICc values is less than 4 (Charlton and Fotheringham,
2009).
It is examined whether categorizing traffic crash frequency by
severity is important in this work. Venkataraman et al. (2013)
investigated various groupings of crash outcomes using random
parameter negative binomial models and found that this was
important. The number of all crashes was divided into those
that result in fatal or severe injuries and those that result in
minor injuries. Such models were estimated using OLS and a log-
likelihood test was used to test the significance of classifying the
crash frequencies by severity. Since a spatial regression model
based on OLS results in bias, a Jacobian matrix was created by con-
sidering spatial dependence, and this is included in the likelihood
function (Ord, 1975). Therefore, maximum likelihood estimation is
used and a log-likelihood value is estimated despite the method
being a linear analysis.
To statistically test if the separate modeling of crashes by sever-
ity is significant a chi-square log-likelihood test is used. The test
194 K.-A. Rhee et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 91 (2016) 190–199

Table 2
Results for models of all crashes.

Dependent variable: ln(all crashes) Models

OLS SLM SEM

Spatial lag coefficient,  – 0.224‡ (0.058) –

Spatial error coefficient,  – – 0.341‡ (0.066)
Constant 1.604‡ (0.490) 0.655 (0.521) 1.426‡ (0.494)

Traffic
Ln(vehicle-kilometers traveled) 0.127‡ (0.041) 0.137‡ (0.039) 0.154‡ (0.040)

Demographic
Population ratio under 15 year old (%) −0.043‡ (0.013) −0.041‡ (0.012) −0.051‡ (0.013)
Population ratio of those moving to TAZ in the year (%) 0.018‡ (0.006) 0.017‡ (0.006) 0.018‡ (0.006)

Socio-economic and neighborhood

Household income, monthly average (decile) 0.076‡ (0.026) 0.061† (0.025) 0.091‡ (0.030)
Number of elementary and lower schools 0.012‡ (0.003) 0.012‡ (0.003) 0.010‡ (0.003)
Dummy for APT area (1 if ratio of large planned condominium/apartment complexes in TAZ is over 70%, otherwise 0) −0.155† (0.074) −0.157† (0.071) −0.145† (0.072)
Mixed land use index (MLI) (0:scattered–1:mixed) 1.622‡ (0.280) 1.397‡ (0.273) 1.373‡ (0.297)

Road network
Number of subway stations and bus stops 0.015‡ (0.002) 0.015‡ (0.002) 0.015‡ (0.002)
Ratio of road length with posted speed under 30 km/h versus total road length (%) −1.566‡ (0.603) −1.432† (0.582) −1.345† (0.612)
Ratio of length of central bus lane versus total road length (%) 4.808‡ (1.463) 4.690‡ (1.412) 4.822‡ (1.498)
Number of access points with over 30 km/h absolute difference in posted speed limit 0.011‡ (0.003) 0.010‡ (0.003) 0.010‡ (0.003)

Number of TAZs 423 423 423

Spatial Weight Matrix – Contiguity matrix (Rook)
Moran’s I of residuals 0.146‡ 0.039 −0.008
R2 0.49 0.51 0.53
AICc 713.523 700.845 691.391
Log-likelihood at convergence −344.761 −337.422 −333.696

Standard errors are in parentheses. Level of significance: all with p-value greater than 90%, † > 95%, and ‡ > 99%. Coefficients that were not significant at the 90% p-value were
restricted to zero and omitted from the model.

Table 3
Results for models of fatal and severe injury.

Dependent variable: ln(fatal and severe crashes) Models

OLS SLM SEM

Spatial lag coefficient,  – 0.220‡ (0.057) –

Spatial error coefficient,  – – 0.334‡ (0.067)
Constant 0.238 (0.451) 0.163 (0.464) 0.407 (0.455)

Traffic
Ln(vehicle-kilometers traveled) 0.145‡ (0.038) 0.151‡ (0.036) 0.164‡ (0.037)

Demographic
Population ratio under 15 year old (%) −0.035‡ (0.012) −0.033‡ (0.011) −0.041‡ (0.012)
Population ratio of those moving to TAZ in the year (%) 0.015‡ (0.005) 0.013‡ (0.005) 0.015‡ (0.005)

Socio-economic and neighborhood

Household income monthly average (decile) 0.073‡ (0.024) 0.057‡ (0.023) 0.082‡ (0.027)
Number of elementary and lower schools 0.009‡ (0.002) 0.010‡ (0.002) 0.008‡ (0.002)
Dummy for APT area (1 if ratio of large planned condominium/apartment complexes in TAZ is over 70%, otherwise 0) −0.149† (0.068) −0.155‡ (0.065) −0.148† (0.066)
Mixed land use index (MLI) (0:scattered–1:mixed) 1.393‡ (0.258) 1.218‡ (0.252) 1.226‡ (0.274)

Road network
Number of subway stations and bus stops 0.015‡ (0.002) 0.015‡ (0.002) 0.015‡ (0.002)
Ratio of road length with posted speed under 30 km/h versus total road length (%) −1.762‡ (0.556) −1.656‡ (0.537) −1.698† (0.563)
Ratio of length of central bus lane versus total road length (%) 3.888‡ (1.347) 3.800‡ (1.301) 3.869‡ (1.379)
Number of access points with over 30 km/h absolute difference in posted speed limit 0.010‡ (0.003) 0.010‡ (0.003) 0.009‡ (0.003)

Number of TAZs 423 423 423

Spatial Weight Matrix – Contiguity matrix (Rook)
Moran’s I of residuals 0.148‡ 0.046 −0.007
R2 0.51 0.53 0.54
AICc 644.072 632.055 622.124
Log-likelihood at convergence −310.036 −303.027 −299.062

Standard errors are in parentheses. Level of significance: all with p-value greater than 90%, † > 95%, and ‡ > 99%. Coefficients that were not significant at the 90% p-value were
restricted to zero and omitted from the model.

statistic that compares the constrained all crashes model with the
unconstrained two models for fatal & severe crashes and injury
crashes is (Ulfarsson and Mannering, 2004):
LR = −2 LLall crashes − LLfatal& severe − LLinjury .(5)
The LR statistic follows a chi-squared distribution with degrees
of freedom equal to the number of constraints, which can be found
by adding the number of parameters in the fatal & severe and injury
models and subtracting the parameters in the all crashes model.
The null hypothesis of there being no improvement due to the sep-
aration by severity was rejected. Therefore, the total number of
crashes was broken down into dependent variables for the severity
categories fatal and severe injury on one hand and minor injury on
 K.-A. Rhee et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 91 (2016) 190–199 195

Table 4
Results for models of minor injury crashes.

Dependent variable: ln(minor injury crashes) Models

OLS SLM SEM

Spatial lag coefficient,  – 0.265‡ (0.056) –

Spatial error coefficient,  – – 0.402‡ (0.063)
Constant 1.013† (0.502) 0.027 (0.513) 0.815‡ (0.503)

Traffic
Ln(vehicle-kilometers traveled) 0.131‡ (0.042) 0.143‡ (0.040) 0.164‡ (0.041)

Demographic
Population ratio under 15 year old (%) −0.046‡ (0.013) −0.043‡ (0.012) −0.056‡ (0.013)
Population ratio of those moving to TAZ in the year (%) 0.020‡ (0.006) 0.018‡ (0.006) 0.019‡ (0.006)

Socio-economic and neighborhood

Household income monthly average (decile) 0.073‡ (0.026) 0.054† (0.026) 0.093‡ (0.031)
Number of elementary and lower schools 0.013‡ (0.003) 0.013‡ (0.003) 0.011‡ (0.003)
Dummy for APT area (1 if ratio of large planned condominium/apartment complexes in TAZ is over 70%, otherwise 0) −0.152† (0.075) −0.150† (0.072) −0.128† (0.073)
Mixed land use index (MLI) (0: scattered–1: mixed) 1.783‡ (0.287) 1.476‡ (0.278) 1.414‡ (0.305)

Road network
Number of subway stations and bus stops 0.015‡ (0.002) 0.015‡ (0.002) 0.015‡ (0.002)
Ratio of road length with posted speed under 30 km/h versus total road length (%) −1.508† (0.618) −1.330† (0.590) −1.164† (0.622)
Ratio of length of central bus lane versus total road length (%) 5.390‡ (1.499) 5.181‡ (1.432) 5.254‡ (1.528)
Number of access points with over 30 km/h absolute difference in posted speed limit 0.012‡ (0.003) 0.010‡ (0.003) 0.011‡ (0.003)

Number of TAZs 423 423 423

Spatial Weight Matrix – Contiguity matrix (Rook)
Moran’s I of residuals 0.173‡ 0.042 −0.011
R2 0.50 0.51 0.55
AICc 734.376 714.806 702.709
Log-likelihood at convergence −355.188 −344.403 −339.355

Standard errors are in parentheses. Level of significance: all with p-value greater than 90%, † > 95%, and ‡ > 99%. Coefficients that were not significant at the 90% p-value were
restricted to zero and omitted from the model.

the other hand, which were then analyzed in separate models for
the OLS, SEM and SLM models. The GWR, however, was performed
only using the all crashes combined to demonstrate its usefulness
for location analysis and mapping.
4. Results
The results of the OLS, SEM, and SLM regressions for all crashes,
fatal and severe injury, and minor injury are presented in Tables 2–4
respectively. Considering Tables 2–4, VKT, which represents expo-
sure, was linked with increased frequency of traffic crashes as
expected. Since both the dependent variable and VKT were in nat-
ural logarithm form, the regression coefficient of VKT represents
the elasticity directly. The effect was inelastic but with VKT having
a slightly larger elasticity in the spatial models than in OLS. When
VKT increases by 1%, the traffic crashes increase by 0.127% in OLS,
0.137% in SLM, and 0.154% in SEM. This seems low compared to the
typical effect of ADT on crashes in roadway sections which is typi-
cally closer to being 1:1 (see for example, Khattak et al., 2002). The
reason may be that this is an overall vehicle kilometers traveled
measure for an entire TAZ in one year, derived from a Emme/3 sim-
ulation, calibrated on observed values, which may have a weaker
link to overall traffic crashes in a TAZ than average daily trips have
on crashes in specific roadway sections.
A high ratio of the TAZ population below 15 years old reduced
crashes but a high ratio of newly moved-in population increased
crashes slightly. The population less than 15 is mainly children
that attend nursery, kindergarten, and elementary school. Traf-
fic crashes would decrease since the younger population is still
under the protection of their parents and they could benefit from
more traffic safety facilities in family oriented areas. Seoul has a
large population of people who are renters, and because the newly
moved-in population is less familiar with the nearby environment
they are more likely to be exposed to unexpected situations which
could explain the result.
TAZs with higher monthly average household income have more
crashes. This is opposite of what is often found (Noland et al., 2004;
Quddus, 2008; LaScala et al., 2004; Loukaitou-Sideris et al., 2007).
Although Aguero-Valverde and Jovanis, 2006 reported that a higher
ratio of persons under the poverty limit increases the number of
traffic crashes, this variable was not significant for Seoul. When
the effect of other variables was controlled, a higher ratio of per-
sons in poverty actually reduced the number of crashes. This may
be due to special characteristics of Seoul. Seoul has a high popula-
tion density and an expansive public transportation system. Public
transit use may be higher in lower income areas reducing exposure
to traffic crashes. Lower income areas are older with smaller roads
and lower speeds. High income areas are better served with higher
speed roads, and this may be captured in this result. The mixed land
use index of Seoul is high such that distinctions between areas with
high average household income and areas with high ratio of persons
under poverty may not always be clear at the TAZ level. Similarly the
distinctions of residential areas and commercial areas are unclear
at the TAZ level. As a result, the relevant variables affected traffic
crashes differently compared to other studies and the possible com-
plexity of the cause suggests more detailed analysis of this effect
could be beneficial.
A larger number of elementary education institutions in a TAZ
was linked with more traffic crashes. This was determined to be due
to increase of exposure, including pedestrian exposure. Pedestrian
exposure has been found important for crash analysis in urban areas
(Lam et al., 2014).
A dummy variable that has a value of one when the ratio of
high density condominium/apartment complexes to other housing
types is over 70% was shown to reduce the number of traffic crashes.
In Seoul, some aged areas have an inferior road environment. Such
areas experience improvement in road environment when condo-
minium/apartment complexes are built in new town projects, and
road alignment and safety facilities are improved as well. Traffic
into the condominium/apartment complex areas is also controlled
and limited to residents and guests, with low speed limits inside
196 K.-A. Rhee et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 91 (2016) 190–199

Table 5
Results of the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR): all crashes.

Dependent variable: ln(all crashes) Mean Min Max

Constant 0.718043 −0.95075 2.101054

Traffic
Ln(vehicle-kilometers-traveled) 0.18792 0.054926 0.344342

Demographic
Population ratio under 15 year old (%) −0.03571 −0.09096 −0.00535
Population ratio of those moving to TAZ in the year (%) 0.023451 0.009407 0.039869

Socio-economic and neighborhood

Household income monthly average (decile) 0.074492 −0.03155 0.143158
Number of elementary and lower schools 0.014302 0.006988 0.025695
Dummy for APT area (1 if ratio of large planned condominium/apartment complexes in TAZ is over 70%, otherwise 0) −0.18614 −0.33702 −0.03711
Mixed land use index (MLI) (0:scattered–1:mixed) 1.574178 0.938504 2.222473

Road network
Number of subway stations and bus stops −2.14378 −3.8073 −0.73195
Ratio of road length with posted speed under 30 km/h versus total road length (%) 0.014583 0.009598 0.018399
Ratio of length of central bus lane versus total road length (%) 3.613787 −1.10223 7.154756
Number of access points with over 30 km/h absolute difference in posted speed limit 0.009933 0.005038 0.014473

Bandwidth 281.000
Moran’s I (residual) 0.187 (Z-value: 6.71)
Moran’s I (Std. residual) 0.059 (Z-value: 2.23)
R2 0.57
Log-likelihood at convergence −306.239
AICc 703.563

the complexes. Therefore, a higher ratio of apartment complexes is
linked to a reduction in the number of traffic crashes in the TAZ.
Regions with MLI near one had more traffic crashes. Of the
socioeconomic variables MLI was shown to have the biggest impact
on crash frequency. It may be because MLI near one leads to larger
attraction of population and traffic that affects exposure to traffic
crashes beyond what is captured by VKT. This may also be impor-
tant since there is no direct measure of pedestrian exposure (Yao
et al., 2015).
A larger number of subway stations and bus stops were found
to increase traffic crashes. Bus stop and subway stations induce
activities of people, and an increase of such nodes would increase
the possibility of conflict between pedestrians and vehicle traf-
fic, and for the bus stops, between buses and other vehicles and
pedestrians.
An increased ratio of road lengths with speed limit below
30 km/h is significantly linked with fewer traffic crashes; show-
ing that low speed limit areas are beneficial from a traffic crash
frequency standpoint. Traffic safety is proposed to be included in
long-term transportation planning (Washington et al., 2006), so it
is important to realize that policy to reduce traffic congestion by
increasing road width and speed limits may threaten road safety
(Shefer and Rietveld, 1997).
The length ratio of a central bus-only lane had the biggest effect
on the number of crashes in the models examined in this study.
This may be because pedestrians jaywalk to reach or depart the
bus stop island in the middle of the road to catch the bus. Generally
these are located on large multilane roads. Another reason may
be confusion by unfamiliar drivers or inattentive drivers since the
occurrence of the bus-only lane and associated bus stop islands can
be unexpected to drivers and it can perhaps conflict or be confused
with left turn lanes. This is an important limitation to placing bus-
only lanes in the center of a two-way road with bus stops on a
center island. This has been done as a way to improve bus service
in congested corridors. This result shows that the safety experience
of these corridors needs to be studied further, including the use
of pedestrian exposure metrics (Lam et al., 2013, 2014; Yao et al.,
2015).
The number of access points with absolute speed limit difference
over 30 km/h between the side road and mainline was found linked
to increased traffic crash occurrence. The statistical significance of
this variable and the number of public transportation sites merits
discussion. Both variables are nodes of movement of people and
vehicles, and they both create situations in which the expectancy
of the driver and the pedestrian are not met in the real space. This
suggests the need for further local analysis of the design of these
locations and ways to mitigate the safety risk.
When the goodness-of-fit of the OLS, SLM, and SEM are com-
pared in terms of AICc, the SEM had the highest goodness-of-fit
followed by SLM and then OLS. The LR test also showed that SLM
and SEM had higher goodness-of-fit. If such traffic crash models
are analyzed by OLS instead of spatial regression, there is a dan-
ger of over- or underestimating the effect of variables on traffic
crashes. For example, the effect of VKT and road lengths with speed
limit below 30 km/h was underestimated and the effect of MLI was
overestimated in OLS when compared with the spatial regression
models.
As shown in Table 3, the crash model for fatal and severe injuries
shows a larger effect of VKT and road lengths with speed limit below
30 km/h compared to the model with all crashes (Table 2), whereas
the effect of MLI and length of central bus-only lane decreased. 
and , which denote the effect of neighboring space, were both
lower in the fatal and severe injury models compared to the model
with all crashes combined (Table 2). When the regression coeffi-
cient values were considered as absolute values in the fatal and
severe injury model, the effect of the central bus-only lane length
was the strongest, indicating possible negative safety consequences
of this transit improvement.
In the minor injury model in Table 4, the effect of neighboring
space increased by 20 to 30% compared to the previous two models,
and the effect of the MLI and the central bus-only lane variables
increased. When the absolute values of the regression coefficients
were considered in this model, the effect of the central bus-only
lane length was the strongest, followed by the MLI, and the ratio of
roads with speed limit over 30 km/h.
4.1. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) results
The results for the all crashes GWR model are presented in
Table 5. The GWR results are now used to visually confirm that
 K.-A. Rhee et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 91 (2016) 190–199 197

Fig. 1. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) coefficient estimates on the number of access points with speed limit difference over 30 km/h.

Fig. 2. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) coefficient estimates on the length ratio of central bus lane in all crashes model.

the effect of independent variables is significantly different for dif-
ferent locations within Seoul. Since the GWR estimates individual
regression equations for all 423 TAZs, only the mean, minimum,
and maximum of the regression coefficients for each independent
variable in each TAZ are presented in Table 5.
The traffic exposure, ln(VKT), increases traffic crashes in all TAZs.
But some variables, such as household income and the length ratio
of central bus-only lanes, are not always the same in the local TAZ
models. Also the significance of some variables became lower in the
GWR. The reason is that the data in individual TAZs may be locally
correlated (Wheeler and Tiefelsdorf, 2005) or because of the GWR’s
method for estimating standard errors (Hadayeghi and Persaud,
2010). Standard errors in a GWR may be roughly estimated because
of reuse of the data at multiple TAZs (Congdon, 2003).
Locations with higher-than-average statistics can be grouped
to develop a suggested area plan for improving traffic safety. Fig. 1
shows the estimated coefficients for each TAZ depending on the
access points with speed limit difference over 30 km/h. Consider-
ing that the average regression coefficient for this variable is 0.01,
the southern regions (C and D) are more sensitive to this variable
198 K.-A. Rhee et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 91 (2016) 190–199
compared to the northern regions (A and B). Fig. 2 shows the change
in the regression coefficient estimate of the central bus-only lane
length ratio for each TAZ. From this result, traffic crashes that occur
in the eastern regions are more affected by central bus-only lanes
compared to the western regions (A and C).
From these differences in the effect of explanatory variables
for different TAZs, it is possible to establish a localized strategy
to improve traffic safety. For example, TAZs in region C should
improve the environment of access points with large speed limit
difference while region D should improve the environment near its
central bus-only lanes, based on the GWR analysis.
5. Conclusion
A practical procedure for investigating traffic crashes in a large
metropolitan area using now standard spatial regression models
was tested for Seoul. In terms of goodness-of-fit based on AICc
and the LM test, the spatial error model performed better than
the spatial lag model and the OLS model. It is therefore recom-
mended to use the spatial error model for such applications. The
Jarque–Bera test of homogeneity was, however, rejected; showing
that the spatial regression models did not eliminate heteroskedas-
ticity. It is noted that more sophisticated count model frameworks
using Bayesian estimation exist and have received considerable
research. Such models may soon become more practical. The mod-
els presented in this paper are already practice-ready based on
typical data and software available to cities and planning agen-
cies. The results confirm that crash data is spatially correlated and
should not be analyzed using OLS. Biases were noted when com-
paring the OLS and the spatially correlated models.
The GWR model accounts for spatial heterogeneity but the
goodness-of-fit was not significantly improved in terms of log-
likelihood and AICc values compared to the spatial error model.
The GWR model is, however, expected to be useful for identify-
ing and selecting TAZs based on where safety can be improved the
most since GWR creates a visual overall picture of the entire area
as a function of a particular variable.
Turning to specific results, increasing ratio of high density con-
dominium/apartment complexes in a TAZ led to a decrease in crash
frequency. This may not be interpreted in general that high popu-
lation density leads to greater safety. This is a local effect which
may be specific to Seoul due to the road and pedestrian facility
upgrades that come with these areas along with limited traffic and
low speeds within the complexes themselves. This effect needs to
be estimated in other regions and for other spatial analysis units
(Abdel-Aty et al., 2013).
This study has important and direct implications for transport
policy. The largest marginal effect to increase the number of crashes
of all severity types was the increasing ratio of a central bus-only
lane. This has important implications because these lanes are being
installed in Seoul to improve bus transit in congested corridors.
These installments need to be locally investigated and mitigation
strategies developed to reduce the number of crashes in these areas.
The GWR helps suggest the TAZs with the worst performance.
The effect of road length with speed limit below 30 km/h was
also important and reduced the number of crashes as could be
expected. This supports the policy of using 30 km/h zones for traffic
crash frequency reduction in targeted areas, especially areas with
high pedestrian and bicycle traffic. The MLI indicator for mixed use
was linked with a larger number of crashes. This result may be
linked to the type of mixed use in Seoul and the increased points
of conflict between various vehicles, bicycles, and pedestrians. This
suggests that in the mixed use areas, additional local-level research
is needed to develop treatments to improve safety.
The number of access points with a large speed differential was
linked to increased crashes. This suggests that access by low speed
facilities to higher speed roads needs to be better controlled, either
by limiting this access or with design improvements, for example,
to improve merging. A more localized study would be necessary to
determine the best countermeasure in each case.
Assigning risk to areas based on the number of traffic crashes
alone will lead to error in policy decision making. A variable that
has an overall effect on a large region may be negligible at a local
level. The spatial environment and its interaction may vary signifi-
cantly within local regions. In other words, although the number of
crashes may be the same in two areas, their potential risk may differ
depending on the environment. Therefore, to determine high-risk
regions, it is necessary to capture local effects using a multivari-
ate approach and to account for the spatial heterogeneity of traffic
crashes in addition to the number of crashes that occurred.
The application of spatial analysis of traffic safety is still in its
early stages at planning agencies. It will be more actively applied
with further developments in data collection, computer technology
and implementation of new models being researched. As methods
advance, it will be helpful to achieve institutional standardization
of the unit of analysis in order to harmonize traffic safety analy-
sis and transportation planning. Recent studies have focused on
optimizing the spatial aggregation unit with the aim to not only
address traffic safety policy in a retrospective manner but to estab-
lish a system that integrates safety analysis with the transportation
planning stage (Abdel-Aty et al., 2013) in order to provide proac-
tive guidance. To meet agencies where they are at, this work has
analyzed traffic crashes at the TAZ level, which is the spatial unit
used in transportation planning. Further study is required to iden-
tify the optimal aggregation unit for analyzing the characteristics
of traffic crashes in Seoul and elsewhere, and how this unit can be
integrated with transportation planning.
Acknowledgment
This paper was developed as part of the project ‘Safe Envi-
ronment against Traffic Accidents’ funded by the Korea Research
Institute for Human Settlements.
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