1. (a) p(A Ç B) = 0.6 + 0.

8 – 1 (M1)
= 0.4 (A1) (C2)

(b) p( A È B) = p( (A Ç B)) = 1 – 0.4 (M1)

= 0.6 (A1) (C2)
[4]

120  1 
   0.333 
2. (a) 360  3  (A1)(A1) (C2)
90  120  210 7 
   0.583 
(b) 360  360 12  (A2) (C2)

90  3   1 
 Accept
4
   0.429  7 
(c) 210  7   12  (A1)(A1) (C2)
[6]

3. (a)
Boy Girl Total
TV 13 25 38
Sport 33 29 62
Total 46 54 100

38
P(TV) = 100 (A1) (C2)

13
(b) P(TV | Boy) = 46 (= 0.283 to 3 sf) (A2) (C2)
Notes: Award (A1) for numerator and (A1) for denominator.
Accept equivalent answers.
[4]

1
4. (a)
6, 6 1
6
1– 36
6
6
1–
6 –5
6 5
not 6 6, not 6
36
not 6, 6 5
6
1– 36
6
–5
6 not 6

–5
6 25
not 6 not 6, not 6
36
(M2) (C2)
1 5
,
Notes: Award (M1) for probabilities 6 6 correctly entered on
diagram.
Award (M1) for correctly listing the outcomes 6, 6; 6 not 6; not
6, 6; not 6, not 6, or the corresponding probabilities.

1 1 1 5 5 1  5 5
     1   
(b) P(one or more sixes) = 6 6 6 6 6 6 or  6 6  (M1)
11
= 36 (A1) (C2)
[4]

5. (a)

A B

(A1) (C1)

(b) (i) n(A Ç B) = 2 (A1) (C1)

2  1
 or 
(ii) P(A Ç B) = 36  18  (allow ft from (b)(i)) (A1) (C1)

2
 (c) n(A Ç B) ¹ 0 (or equivalent) (R1) (C1)
[4]

6. (a)
Males Females Totals
Unemployed 20 40 60
Employed 90 50 140
Totals 110 90 200
Note: Award (A1) if at least 4 entries are correct.
Award (A2) if all 8 entries are correct.

40 1

(b) (i) P(unemployed female) = 200 5 (A1)

90 9

(ii) P(male I employed person) = 140 14 (A1)
[4]

7. P(different colours) = 1 – [P(GG) + P(RR) + P(WW)] (M1)

 10 9 10 9 6 5 
      
= 1 –  6 25 26 25 26 25  (A1)
 210 
 
=1–  650  (A1)
44
= 65 (= 0.677, to 3 sf) (A1) (C4)

OR
P(different colours) = P(GR) + P(RG) + P(GW) + P(WG) + P(RW) + P(WR) (A1)
 10 6   10 10 
4    2  
=  26 25   26 25  (A1)(A1)
44
= 65 (= 0.677, to 3 sf) (A1) (C4)
[4]

3
8. (a) U

B
A

(A1) (C1)

(b) n(A È B) = n(A) + n(B) – n(A Ç B)

65 = 30 + 50 – n(A Ç B)
Þ n(A Ç B) = 15 (may be on the diagram) (M1)
n(B Ç A¢) = 50 – 15 = 35 (A1) (C2)

n( B  A) 35

(c) P(B Ç A¢) = n(U ) 100 = 0.35 (A1) (C1)
[4]

9. (a)

0 .6

0 .4 0 .4

0 .6 0 .5

0 .5
(A1) (C1)

(b) P(B) = 0.4(0.6) + 0.6 (0.5) = 0.24 + 0.30 (M1)

= 0.54 (A1) (C2)

P( B  C ) 0.24 4
 
(c) P(CïB) = P( B ) 0. 54 9 (= 0.444, 3 sf) (A1) (C1)
[4]

4
 22
10. (a) P = 23 (= 0.957 (3 sf)) (A2) (C2)

(b)

R
21 3
24 23

R
G
22
25

etc
3
25
G
(M1)
OR
P = P (RRG) + P (RGR) + P (GRR) (M1)
22 21 3 22 3 21 3 22 21
       
25 24 23 25 24 23 25 24 23 (M1)(A1)
693
= 2300 (= 0.301 (3 sf)) (A1) (C4)
[6]

5
11. Sample space ={(1, 1), (1, 2) ... (6, 5), (6, 6)}
(This may be indicated in other ways, for example, a grid or a tree diagram, partly or fully
completed)
1
2
3.
..
1
1
2
2 3.
..

3
4
5

6
6  5  4  3  2 1
(a) P (S < 8) = 36 (M1)
7
= 12 (A1)
OR
7
P (S < 8) = 12 (A2)

11 6 111
(b) P (at least one 3) = 36 (M1)
11
= 36 (A1)
OR
11
P (at least one 3) = 36 (A2)

P(at least one 3  S  8)

(c) P (at least one 3½S < 8) = PS  8 (M1)
7
36
7
= 12 (A1)
1
= 3 (A1)
[7]

6
12. (a) P (A È B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A Ç B) Þ P (A Ç B) = P (A) +
P (B) – P (A È B) (M1)
3 4 6
 –
= 11 11 11 (M1)
1
= 11 (0.0909) (A1) (C3)

(b) For independent events, P (A Ç B) = P (A) × P (B) (M1)

3 4

= 11 11 (A1)
12
= 121 (0.0992) (A1) (C3)
[6]

13. (a) Independent (I) (C2)

(b) Mutually exclusive (M) (C2)
(c) Neither (N) (C2)
Note: Award part marks if the candidate shows understanding
of I and/or M
eg I P(A Ç B) = P(A)P(B) (M1)
M P(A È B) = P(A) + P(B) (M1)
[6]

14. (a)

U (8 8 )
E (3 2 ) H (2 8 )

a b c

39

n (E È H) = a + b + c = 88 – 39 = 49 (M1)
n (E È H) = 32 + 28 – b = 49
60 – 49 = b = 11 (A1)
a = 32 – 11 = 21 (A1)
c = 28 – 11 = 17 (A1) 4
Note: Award (A3) for correct answers with no working.

11 1

(b) (i) P(E Ç H) = 88 8 (A1)
7
 21
PH ' E  88

PE  32
(ii) P(H¢½E) = 88 (M1)
21
= 32 (= 0.656) (A1)
OR
21
Required probability = 32 (A1)(A1) 3

56  55  54
(c) (i) P(none in economics) = 88  87  86 (M1)(A1)
= 0.253 (A1)
3
 56 
 
Notes: Award (M0)(A0)(A1)(ft) for  88  = 0.258.
56  55  54
Award no marks for 88  88  88 .

(ii) P(at least one) = 1 – 0.253 (M1)

= 0.747 (A1)
OR
 32 56 55   32 31 56  32 31 30
     3      
3  88 87 86   88 87 86  88 87 86 (M1)
= 0.747 (A1) 5
[12]

7 6 7 
  
15. P(RR) = 12 11  22  (M1)(A1)
5 4 5
  
P(YY) = 12 11  33  (M1)(A1)
P (same colour) = P(RR) + P(YY) (M1)
31
= 66 (= 0.470, 3 sf) (A1) (C6)
2 2
7 5 74
    
Note: Award C2 for  12   12  144 .
[6]

16. (a) P(A È B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A Ç B) (M1)

1 3 7
 
P(A Ç B) = 2 4 8

8
 3
= 8 (A1) (C2)

 3
 
P( A  B)  8

P( B)  3
 
(b) P(AïB) =  4 (M1)
1
= 2 (A1) (C2)

(c) Yes, the events are independent (A1) (C1)

EITHER
P(AïB) = P(A) (R1) (C1)
OR
P(A Ç B) = P(A)P(B) (R1) (C1)
[6]

17. (a)
1
4 L

7
W
8
3
4 L'
3
5 L
1
8
W'
2
5 L' (A1)(A1)(A1)(A1) 4
 7 1 3
 , , 
Note: Award (A1) for the given probabilities  8 4 5  in the
correct positions, and (A1) for each bold value.

9
 7 1 1 3
  
(b) Probability that Dumisani will be late is 8 4 8 5 (A1)(A1)
47
= 160 (0.294) (A1) (N2) 3

P(W  L)
(c) P(WïL) = P( L)
7 1

P(W Ç L) = 8 4 (A1)
47
P(L) = 160 (A1)
7
32
47
P(WïL) = 160 (M1)
35
= 47 (= 0.745) (A1) (N3) 4
[11]

18. (a)
G ro w s
0 .9

R ed
0 .4

0 .1 D o es n o t g ro w

G ro w s
0 .8

0 .6
Yello w

0 .2 D o es n o t g ro w
(A3) (N3) 3

10
 (b) (i) 0.4  0.9 (A1)
= 0.36(A1) (N2)

(ii) 0.36  0.6  0.8 (  0.36  0.48) (A1)

= 0.84(A1) (N1)
P (red  grows)
(iii) P (grows) (may be implied) (M1)
0.36

0.84 (A1)
 3
 0.429  
7 (A1)(N2) 7
[10]

 x P( X  x)
19. (a) Using E(X) = 0 (M1)
3  1 6  2  1
Substituting correctly E(X) = 0 × 10 10 10 A1
8
= 10 (0.8) A1 3

(b) (i)
3
5 R

R
4
6 2 G
5

4
2 5 R
6
G

1 G
5 A1A1A1 3
Note: Award (A1) for each complementary pair of probabilities,
4 and 2 , 3 and 2 , 4 and 1 .
ie 6 6 5 5 5 5

11
 21 2
(ii) P(Y = 0) = 5 5 30 A1
  4  2  2  4 
P(Y = 1) = P(RG) + P(GR)  6 5 6 5  M1
16
= 30 A1
4  3  12
P(Y = 2) = 6 5 30 (A1)
For forming a distribution M1 5

y 0 1 2

P(Y = y) 2 16 12
30 30 30

2   1 
(c) P(Bag A) = 6  3 (A1)
4   2 
P(BagA B) = 6  3 (A1)
For summing P(A Ç RR) and P(B Ç RR) (M1)
1  1  2  12
Substituting correctly P(RR) = 3 10 3 30 A1
27  3 , 0.3 
 
= 90  10  A1 5

P( A  RR)
(d) For recognising that P(1 or 6|RR) = P(A|RR) = P( RR) (M1)
1  27
= 30 90 A1
3  1 , 0.111 
= 27 9  A1 3
[19]

20. Total number of possible outcomes = 36 (may be seen anywhere) (A1)

(a) P ( E )  P (1,1)  P (2, 2)  P (3, 3)  P (4, 4)  P (5, 5)  P (6, 6)

6

36 (A1) (C2)

(b) P ( F )  P (6, 4)  P (5, 5)  P (4, 6)

12
 3

36 (A1) (C1)

P  E  F   P (E)  P (F )  P (E  F )
(c)
1
P (E  F ) 
36 (A1)

6 3 1   8  2 , 0.222 
PE  F      
36 36 36  36 9  (M1)(A1) (C3)
[6]

80  8 
P ( A)     0.381
21. (a) (i) 210  21  (A1) (N1)

35  1 
P (year 2 art)     0.167 
(ii) 210  6  (A1) (N1)

(iii) No (the events are not independent, or, they are dependent) (A1) (N1)
EITHER
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B) (to be independent) (M1)
100  10 
P ( B)    0.476 
210  21  (A1)
1 8 10
 
6 21 21 (A1)

OR
P (A)=P (A B )
(to be independent) (M1)
35
P (A B ) 
100 (A1)
8 35

21 100 (A1)

13
 OR
P (B )=P (B A)
(to be independent) (M1)
100  10 
P ( B)    0.476  P (B A)  35
210  21 , 80 (A1)
35 100

80 210 (A1) 6
Note: Award the first (M1) only for a mathematical
interpretation of independence.

(b) n (history)  85 (A1)

50  10 
P (year 1 history)     0.588 
85  17  (A1) (N2) 2

 110 100   100 110   110 100 

       2  
(c)  210 209   210 209   210 209  (M1)(A1)(A1)
200
   0.501
399 (A1) (N2) 4
[12]

 13   12   11   10 
 , , , 
22. Correct probabilities  24   23   22   21  (A1)(A1)(A1)(A1)
 13 12 11 10 
    
Multiplying  24 23 22 21  (M1)
17160  65 
  0.0673
P(4 girls) = 255024 966  (A1) (C6)
[6]

14
23. For using P(A È B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A Ç B) (M1)
Let P(A) = x then P(B) = 3x
2
P(A Ç B) = P(A) ´ 3P(A) (= 3x ) (A1)
2
0.68 = x + 3x - 3x (A1)
2
3x - 4x + 0.68 = 0
x = 0.2 ( x = 1.133, not possible) (A2)
P(B) = 3x = 0.6 (A1) (C6)
[6]

24. (a)

(A1)(A1)(A1)

1 4  4 
   0.267
(b) (i) P(R Ç S) = 3 5  15  (A1) (N1)
1 4 2 1
  
(ii) P(S) = 3 5 3 4 (A1)(A1)
13
( 0.433)
= 30 (A1) (N3)
4
15
13
(iii) P(R÷ S) = 30 (A1)(A1)
8
( 0.615)
= 13 (A1) (N3)
[10]

25. (a) Independent Þ P(A Ç B) = P(A) ´ P(B) (= 0.3 ´ 0.8) (M1)

15
 = 0.24 A1 N2

(b) P(A È B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A Ç B) (= 0.3 + 0.8 - 0.24) M1

= 0.86 A1 N1

(c) No, with valid reason A2 N2

eg P(A Ç B)  0 or P(A È B)  P(A) + P(B) or correct
numerical equivalent
[6]

20
26. (a) P(P½C) = 20  40 A1
1
= 3 A1 N1

30
(b) P(P½C¢) = 30  60 A1
1
= 3 A1 N1

(c) Investigating conditions, or some relevant calculations (M1)

P is independent of C, with valid reason A1 N2
eg P(P½C) = P(P½C¢), P(P½C) = P(P),
20 50 60
 
150 150 150 (ie P(P Ç C) = P(P) ´ P(C))
[6]

16
27. (a)
3
R
5

M
1
3
2
5 G
2
R
10
2
3
N

8
10 G
A1A1A1 N3

1 2 2
 (  0.133)
(b) (i) P(M and G) = 3 5 15 A1 N1
1 2 2 8
  
(ii) P(G) = 3 5 3 10 (A1)(A1)
10  2 
   0.667
= 15  3  A1 N3
2
P( M  G ) 15

P(G ) 2
(iii) P(M ç G) = 3 (A1)(A1)
1
= 5 or 0.2 A1 N3

17
 2 1

(c) P(R) = 1 - 3 3 (A1)
Evidence of using a correct formula M1
1 2  1 3 2 2 1 2 2 8
2   5   or 2    2    5    5   
E(win) = 3 3  3 5 3 10 3 5 3 10  A1
 12 60 
 accept , 
= $4  3 15  A1 N2
[14]

28. (a) For attempting to use the formula (P(E Ç F) = P(E)P(F)) (M1)
Correct substitution or rearranging the formula A1
1
3
1 2 PE  F  2

eg 3 3 P(F), P(F) = P E  , P(F) = 3
1
P(F) = 2 A1 N2

(b) For attempting to use the formula (P(E È F) = P(E) + P(F)

- (P(E Ç F)) (M1)
2 1 1
 
P(E È F) = 3 2 3 A1
5
 0.833
= 6 A1 N2
[6]

3
29. (a) 4 A1 N1

(b) P(A È B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A Ç B) (M1)

P(A Ç B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A È B)
2 3 7
 
= 5 4 8 A1
11
= 40 (0.275) A1 N2

18
  11 
P( A  B)  40 

P( B)  3 
 
(c) P(A ê B) =  4  A1
11
(0.367)
= 30 A1 N1
[6]

46
 0.474
30. (a) 97 A1A1 N2

13
 0.255
(b) 51 A1A1 N2

59
 0.608
(c) 97 A2 N2
[6]

31. (a)
S eco n d d ie
in p air
F irst d ie
in p air 1 fo u r
6

fo u r
1
6 5
6 not
fo u r

1 fo u r
5 6
6 not
fo u r

5
6 not
fo u r
A1A1A1 N3
Note: Award A1 for each pair of complementary
probabilities.

1 5 5 1  5 5 
     
(b) P(E) = 6 6 6 6  36 36  (A2)

19
 10  5 
  or 0.278
= 36  18  A1 N3

(c) Evidence of recognizing the binomial distribution (M1)

 5 5 13
B 5 ,  or p  , q 
eg X ~  18  18 18
3 2
 5   5   13 
     
3
P(X = 3) =    18   18  (or other evidence of correct setup) (A1)
= 0.112 A1 N3

(d) METHOD 1
Evidence of using the complement M1
eg P(X ³ 3) = 1 - P(X £ 2)
Correct value 1 - 0.865 (A1)
= 0.135 A1 N2
METHOD 2
Evidence of adding correct probabilities M1
eg P(X ³ 3) = P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)
Correct values 0.1118 + 0.02150 + 0.001654 (A1)
= 0.135 A1 N2
[12]

32. (a) P(F È S) = 1 - 0.14 (= 0.86) (A1)

Choosing an appropriate formula (M1)
eg P(A È B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A Ç B)
Correct substitution
eg P(F Ç S) = 0.93 - 0.86 A1
P(F Ç S) = 0.07 AG N0
Notes: There are several valid approaches. Award
(A1)(M1)A1 for relevant working using any
appropriate strategy eg formula, Venn
Diagram, or table.
Award no marks for the incorrect solution
P(F Ç S) = 1 - P(F) + P(S) = 1 - 0.93 = 0.07

20
 (b) Using conditional probability (M1)
 P (F  S ) 
  
 P ( S ) 
eg P(F | S)
0.07
P(F | S) = 0.62 (A1)
= 0.113 A1 N3

(c) F and S are not independent A1 N1

EITHER
If independent P(F | S) = P(F), 0.113  0.31 R1R1 N2
OR
If independent P(F Ç S) = P(F) P(S), 0.07  0.31 ´ 0.62 (= 0.1922) R1R1 N2

(d) Let P(F) = x

P(S) = 2P(F) (= 2x) (A1)
2
For independence P(F Ç S) = P(F)P(S) (= 2x ) (R1)
Attempt to set up a quadratic equation (M1)
2
eg P(F È S) = P(F)P(S) - P(F)P(S), 0.86 = x + 2x - 2x
2
2x - 3x + 0.86 = 0 A2
x = 0.386, x = 1.11 (A1)
P(F) = 0.386 (A1) N5
[16]

19
 0.158
33. (a) 120 A1 N1

(b) 35 - (8 + 5 + 7)(= 15) (M1)

15  3 1 
   0.125
Probability = 120  24 8  A1 N2

21
 (c) Number studying = 76 (A1)
Number not studying = 120 - number studying = 44 (M1)
44  11 
  0.367
Probability = 120  30  A1 N3
[6]

34. (a)
3 /9 A

A
4 /1 0
6 /9
B

4 /9 A
6 /1 0
B

5 /9
B
A1A1A1 N3

 4 6  6 4
    
(b)  10 9   10 9  M1M1
48  8 
  , 0.533
90  15  A1 N1
[6]

3
35. (a) (i) P(B) = 4 A1 N1
1
(ii) P(R) = 4 A1 N1

22
 3
p
(b) 4 A1 N1
1 3
s , t
4 4 A1 N1

(c) (i) P(X = 3)

1 3
= P (getting 1 and 2) = 4 ´ 4 A1
3
= 16 AG N0

1 1 3  or 1  3 
 
(ii) P(X = 2) = 4 ´ 4 + 4  16  (A1)
13
= 16 A1 N2

(d) (i)

X 2 3
13 3
P(X = x)
16 16
A2 N2
(ii) evidence of using E(X) = ∑xP(X = x) (M1)
 13   3 
2   3 
E(X) =  16   16  (A1)
35  3
 2 
= 16  16  A1 N2

23
 (e) win $10 Þ scores 3 one time, 2 other time (M1)
13 3
P(3) ´ P(2) = 16 ´ 16 (seen anywhere) A1
evidence of recognizing there are different ways of winning $10 (M1)
 13 3 
2  ,
eg P(3) ´ P(2) + P(2) ´ P(3),  16 16 
36 3 36 3
  
256 256 256 256
78  39 
 
P(win $10) = 256  128  A1 N3
[16]

36. (a) (i) correct calculation (A1)

9 5 2 4  2  3 3
  ,
eg 20 20 20 20

12  3 
 
P(male or tennis) = 20  5  A1 N2
(ii) correct calculation (A1)
6 11 3  3
 ,
eg 20 20 11
6
P(not football | female) = 11 A1 N2

11 10
,
(b) P(first not football) = 20 P(second not football) = 19 A1
11 10
P(neither football) = 20 ´ 19 A1
110  11 
 
P(neither football) = 380  38  A1 N1
[7]

24
37. (a) evidence of binomial distribution (seen anywhere) (M1)
 1
 3, 
eg X ~ B  4 
3
 0.75
mean = 4 A1 N2

2
 3  1   3 
     
2
(b) P(X = 2) =    4   4  (A1)
 9 
 
P(X = 2) = 0.141  64  A1 N2

(c) evidence of appropriate approach M1

eg complement, 1 - P(X = 0), adding probabilities
 27 
  0.422 , 
P(X = 0) = (0.75)
3  64  (A1)
 37 
 
P(X ³ 1) = 0.578  64  A1 N2
[7]

25