Analysis of the level of suitability of the

average-based fuzzy time series method for

predicting national salt production
Cite as: AIP Conference Proceedings 2679, 020015 (2023); https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0112120
Published Online: 04 January 2023

Novi Prastiti, Diana Rahmawati, Rikha Bramawanto, et al.

ARTICLES YOU MAY BE INTERESTED IN

Impact of solar photovoltaic systems on low voltage in buildings distribution networks

AIP Conference Proceedings 2679, 020013 (2023); https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0116852

Comparison of normality testing with chi quadrat calculations and tables for the statistical
value departement of elementary school education student at the University of Jember
AIP Conference Proceedings 2679, 020018 (2023); https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0111307

Distribution and aglomeration of regional businesses of education (Case study area state
University of Jember)
AIP Conference Proceedings 2679, 020017 (2023); https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0111281

AIP Conference Proceedings 2679, 020015 (2023); https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0112120 2679, 020015

© 2023 Author(s).
 Analysis of The Level Of Suitability of The Average-Based
Fuzzy Time Series Method For Predicting National Salt
Production

Novi Prastiti1,a), Diana Rahmawati1), Rikha Bramawanto2) , Shofia Hardi1)

1
The University of Trunojoyo Madura, Jl. Raya Telang PO BOX 02, Bangkalan, Indonesia
2
Marine Research Center, Agency for Marine and Fisheries Research and Human Resources, Republic of Indonesia
Ministry of Marine Affairs
and Fisheries, Jakarta, Indonesia.
a)
Corresponding Author: prastitinovi@trunojoyo.ac.id

Abstract. Based on data obtained from the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries reported by kompas.com, in 2021,
Indonesia will import 3.07 million tons of salt. This is because the stock from local salt farmers is insufficient and does not
meet the quality for industrial salt standards. Variables that affect the amount of salt production and quality in Indonesia
are Nino 3.4, negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These two variables will affect the dry season that will occur in the
form of wet or dry drought. If the dry season is wet, the national salt production will decrease which will result in crop
failure. The Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (KKP) has predicted national salt using several methods. However,
the results of the salt prediction are still not able to approach the number of predictions of national salt accurately. Thus, in
this study, the Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series method was used.

INTRODUCTION
Currently, Indonesia's salt production is only able to meet consumption needs. In addition, from the total existing
salt production, not all of them are able to meet consumption standards. Thus, further processes are needed to meet
these standards. In the production process, the amount produced is highly dependent on weather factors [1].
Based on data from marine studies research from the marine studies center of the Ministry of Marine Affairs and
Fisheries, in 2020, the national salt requirement is +-4 million tons and this need is greater than the total national salt
production[2]. In addition, the demand for industrial salt also continues to increase every year. This is influenced by
the addition of industrial capacity and the emergence of various new industries. For this reason, Indonesia still has to
import salt[3].
In addition, salt production in Indonesia is highly dependent on annual natural phenomena, namely ENSO ( El
Niño-Southern Oscillation ) and IOD ( Indian Ocean Dipole ) . According to Nur'utami in Bramawanto, 2017, ENSO
or commonly called Nino 3.4 is a natural phenomenon involving fluctuations in sea surface temperature in the
equatorial Pacific Ocean, followed by changes in conditions in the atmosphere [3]. Meanwhile, according to Saji in
Bramawanto, 2017, IOD is an atmospheric ocean phenomenon in the equatorial Indian Ocean that affects the climate
in Indonesia and other countries around the Indian Ocean basin [3].

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs every two to seven years. When the Pacific Ocean experiences
an increase in temperature and humidity in the atmosphere above its waters, it triggers cloud formation and increases
rainfall in the region. This makes the western part of the Pacific Ocean experience increased air pressure and inhibited

The First International Conference on Neuroscience and Learning Technology (ICONSATIN 2021)
AIP Conf. Proc. 2679, 020015-1–020015-7; https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0112120
Published by AIP Publishing. 978-0-7354-4300-6/$30.00

020015-1
cloud growth. This phenomenon has resulted in several regions in Indonesia experiencing a decrease in rainfall far
from normal or a prolonged dry season known as El Nino . On the other hand, when the sea surface temperature in the
East of the Equator or in the Pacific Ocean decreases, which is indicated by an increase in the thermocline layer in the
central and eastern parts. The Pacific Ocean and the shifting of the upwelling zone in the Pacific Ocean, have made
Indonesian waters warmer than normal. This triggers cloud growth and increases rainfall in most parts of Indonesia,
this condition is commonly known as La Nina . From the process of the occurrence of El Nino will lead to the
occurrence of La Nina . So it can be said that El Nino and La Nina are natural events that occur consecutively. Usually
an event like this will take place before December[[3].
The Indian Ocean also has a similar but not the same phenomenon, this phenomenon is often referred to as IOD
(Indian Ocean Dipole). According to Saji in Bramawanto, 2017, IOD is an atmospheric ocean phenomenon in the
equatorial Indian Ocean that affects the climate in Indonesia and other countries around the Indian Ocean basin [3]. In
contrast to ENSO which has a different name, IOD only has Positive (+) and Negative (-) conditions. IOD (+) is
indicated by the warming of the waters in the Western Indian Ocean (African Continent) which is warmer than the
Eastern Indian Ocean (Indonesia). Meanwhile, IOD (-) is the opposite of IOD (+), namely by warming the eastern part
of the Indian Ocean and lower temperatures in the western part of the Indian Ocean. This phenomenon plays an
important role in the weather in Indonesia for one year. According to (Endo & Tozuka, 2016) IOD is divided into
canonical IOD which corresponds to negative/positive anomaly of SST in the central to western part of the tropical
Indian Ocean and modoki IOD which corresponds to negative anomaly in the west and east and positive anomaly in
the middle of the Indian Ocean. tropical.
In addition to affecting rainfall conditions, El-Nino events also affect the shift of seasons, this results in changes
in annual climate patterns such as the delay in the start of the rainy season and the dry season. IOD also plays an
important role in seasonal conditions in Indonesia if it is accompanied by the ENSO phenomenon, both El-Nino and
La-Nina. To minimize the risk of loss to salt farmers and as a consideration for maintaining the salt balance, the
prediction of salt production based on climate-weather forecasts is one solution to maintain the balance of the salt
balance. The prognosis for the salt balance can be estimated more accurately by predicting domestic salt production.
In this research, a prediction system for national salt production was made using the Average-Based Fuzzy
Time Series (ABFTS) method. Then, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was calculated to see the
suitability of this method in the prediction of national salt. The variables used in this study were: ENSO, IOD, and
production yields from several salt centers in 2012. The availability of valid data is vital in measuring the achievement
of self-sufficiency. With this research, it is hoped that farmers will avoid the risk of crop failure or losses due to falling
prices triggered by excess salt stock surplus. Another advantage with the salt production prediction system is that the
salt raw material user industry is guaranteed from the salt scarcity caused by the stock deficit. In addition, it is also an
implementation of protection for salt farmers as mandated in the Law of the Republic of Indonesia Number 7 of 2016
and Permen KP number 66 of 2017[4].

METHODS
Based on Ujito in Vulandari, 2020, Fuzzy time series is a data forecasting method that uses fuzzy principles as a
basis. Forecasting systems with fuzzy times series capture patterns from past data and then use them to project future
data. A fuzzy set can be defined as a class of numbers with vague boundaries. Fuzzy sets are used to replace historical
data to be predicted[5].
Based on the problems described above, in this study the fuzzy time series average-based method will be applied
to predict national salt production, with predictor data being production data at several salt centers in 2012 and 2015.
Predictor data are taken from secondary data obtained from Marine Research Center, Ministry of Marine Affairs and
Fisheries[6]. The data analysis process was carried out using the Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series method
using Google Colab . In the system testing process, there are two methods of testing the validity of the system using
the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) method with actual data[7].

The steps for calculating the Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series are as follows:

a. Determining the Universal Set

The first step is to determine Dmin and Dmax. Dmin is the smallest value that exists
on existing historical data, while Dmax Determines Interval Based on Average is the largest data on historical
data[8].

Data =[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,14077.0,56308.0,102576.5,109148.0,28974.3,0.0]

020015-2
 Min = min(Data)
Max = max(Data) ................................................................................................................ (1)

b. Defining the Number of Intervals of a Fuzzy Set

The next step in this process is to determine the average base value and the number of intervals that occur.

.
Selisih = []
for x in range(len(Data)):
if x+1 != len(Data):
Selisih.append(abs(Data[x]-Data[x+1]))
print(Selisih)
#jumlah selisih absolute
SelisihAbsolute = sum(map(float,Selisih))
#Rata Rata selisih absolute
AvgSelisihAbsolute = SelisihAbsolute / len(Selisih)
r= round(AvgSelisihAbsolute/2)
MaxR = Max + r
print(Min,Max,SelisihAbsolute,AvgSelisihAbsolute,r,MaxR) ..............................................(2)

b. Determining the Fuzzy Membership Function

In this process, the universal set U will be divided into subsets Ui by making the average base as the range
for each subset ui with the formula as follows:

Ui = (Dmin + (i-1) * r), Dmin + (i*r)

r is a predetermined average basis interval, provided that (Dmin + (i*r) is not greater than (Dmax + r).
a = []
b = []
for i in range(20):
x = Min + (i+1-1)* r
y = Min + ((i+1)*r)
a.append(x)
b.append(y)
if y > MaxR or x > MaxR:
break
print(a)
print(b) ....................................................................................................................................(3)

c. Fuzzy Logic Relationship Process

The next step in the prediction process is to determine the fuzzy membership. Under conditions of membership
functions (MBF) and fuzzy sets as illustrated in step 3 above, the actual value of the required number can be fuzzified
with the following rules:
If the actual value of the sales figure is p and the value of p lies in the interval U i , then p can be translated as
A j ”. Fuzzified final value of the number of data requirements based on these rules.

FLR = []
for i in range(len(Data)):
for l in range(len(a)):
if(a[l]<=Data[i]<=b[l]):

020015-3
 x= (b[l]-Data[i])/(b[l]-a[l])
y= (Data[i]-a[l])/(b[l]-a[l])
if(y>x):
FLR.append(l+2)
else:
FLR.append(l+1)
print(FLR) ..............................................................................................................................(4)

d. Process of Fuzzy Logic Relationship Group (FLRG)

Relationships are identified based on a fuzzification value from historical data. If the time series variable ( Ft
1) is fuzzified as Ai and F(t) as Aj, then Ai is related to Aj which can be expressed by the notation Ai → Aj. This can
be interpreted that Ai which is located on the left side of the relationship is called the current state and Aj which is on
the right side of the relationship is called the next state and if the relationship is repeated, it is still counted only
once [5].

Flrg= []
for i in range(len(FLR)):
Flrg.append(RataRata[sementara.index(FLR[i])]) ...............................................................(5)

e. Defuzzification Process
The defuzzification process is a calculation process from the forecasting output and then it is calculated so that
it gets results with crisp numbers [9].
RataRata= []
for i in range(len(SaveData)):
x=[]
for j in range(len(SaveData[i])):
x.append(a[SaveData[i][j]-1])
if(len(SaveData[i])>0):
RataRata.append(sum(x)/len(x))
else:
RataRata.append(0) ............................................................................................................(6)

Salt Production Forecasting Results

for i in range(len(Flrg)):

print("Peralaman bulan ",i+2," ",Flrg[i])

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

bulan = []
bulanPrediksi = []
for i in range(len(Data)):
bulan.append(i+1)
bulanPrediksi.append(i+2)
plt.figure()
plt.plot(bulan, Data,c='y',marker="^",ls='--')
plt.plot(bulanPrediksi, Flrg,c='c',marker="+",ls='-')
plt.xlabel("Bulan")

020015-4
 plt.ylabel("Prediksi")...........................................................................................................................(7)

h. Calculating the Mean Absolute Percetage Error (MAPE) value

The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value is used to see the size of the error generated.

MSE =[]
AD =[]
APE =[]
for i in range(len(Data)):
MSE.append((Data[i]-Flrg[i])**2)
for i in range(len(Data)):
AD.append(abs(Data[i]-Flrg[i]))
for i in range(len(Data)):
c = ((abs(Data[i]-Flrg[i]))/Data[i]*100) if Data[i] != 0 else 0
APE.append(c) ...........................................................................................................................(8)

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

a. Determining the Universal Set
TABLE 1. Actual Salt Data at the 2012 Sampang Salt Center
Sampang Salt
Year
No Production
2012
2012
1 Jan-12 0,00
2 Feb-12 0,00
3 Mar-12 0,00
4 Apr-12 0,00
5 May-12 0,00
6 Jun-12 0,00
7 Jul-12 14.077,00
8 Aug-12 56.308,00
9 Sep-12 102.576,50
10 Oct-12 109.148,00
11 Nov-12 28.874,30
12 Dec-12 0,00

In Table 1 there are actual data on salt production at the Sampang salt center in 2012. Salt production starts
from June to November every year. Because, in that month, Indonesia is experiencing a dry season. Meanwhile, from
December to May, Indonesia is experiencing the rainy season.

Defining the Number of Intervals of a Fuzzy Set

By using equation (2), the resulting interval value is 9923 in Figure 1:

020015-5
 FIGURE 1. Result of Interval

c. Determining the Fuzzy Membership Function and the Fuzzy Logic Relationship Process
Determining fuzzy membership serves to determine the communication system between sets of data to be
predicted. By using equations (3) and (4), the results are shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3

FIGURE 2. Fuzzification calculation results

FIGURE 3. Position of Fuzzy Set Membership Number

d. Fuzzy Logic Relationship Group (FLRG) Process and Salt Production Prediction
The process of fuzzy logic relationship group or FLRG is obtained from eliminating the results of Fuzzy
Relationship (FLR) which have the same and more than one relationship to become a group [10]. The results of the
FLRG process will provide a value for the prediction of salt production in the following year. The results of this
process are shown in Figure 4.

FIGURE 4 Predicted Results of Salt Production in Sampang Center in 2013

e. Calculating the Mean Absolute Percetage Error (MAPE) value

The MAPE value is used to see how big the error is. From these results, it can be concluded whether a method is
suitable for the related case. The resulting MAPE value for data at the 2012 Sampang salt center is 48%.

FIGURE 5 Results of MAPE values

020015-6
 CONCLUSIONS
The Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series method cannot be used to predict salt production. This can be seen
from several trials of inputting salt production data. However, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error results obtained
are very high, in 48%. In addition, salt production is seasonal. So that in certain months salt producers do not produce,
so the amount of production is zero. However, when forecasting using the Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series, in a
month that should not be the production season, there is a forecast value. This is because the Average -Based Fuzzy
Time Series method calculates the average value that will be used as a forecasting result.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We gratefully acknowledge a collaborative LPPM University of Trunojoyo Madura’s Mandiri Research Program from
the Dosen Pemula Scheme, from DIPA Universitas Trunojoyo Madura 2021. And also Mr. Rikha Bramawanto as a
researcher from Marine Affairs and Fisheries Ministry for providing the datas we need.

REFERENCES
1. R. Bramawanto, H. Triwibowo, and R. F. Abida, “Pemanfaatan Teknologi Mikrokontroler Untuk Pengukuran
Evaporasi Suhu Udara dan Air Pada Produksi Garam Skala Laboratorium,” J. Kelaut. Nas. 4(2), 155–164 (2019).
2. S. D. Zevalukito and Y. B. Lukiyanto, “The performance of salt farmer’s windmill from Demak for water pumping
with low-speed centrifugal pump,” J. Phys. Conf. Ser. 1724(1), 2021, doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/1724/1/012050.
3. R. Bramawanto and R. F. Abida, “the Climatology Aspect Review ( Enso and Iod ) Against the Production of Salt
in Indonesia,” J. Kelaut. Nas. 12(2), 91–99 (2017).
4. “PERATURAN MENTERI KELAUTAN DAN PERIKANAN REPUBLIK INDONESIA NOMOR
66/PERMEN-KP/2017,” Paper Knowledge . Toward a Media History of Documents. pp. 12–26, 2017.
5. R. T. Vulandari, S. Siswanti, and D. T. Laksono, “Penerapan Algoritma Fuzzy Time Series Average-Based untuk
Memprediksi Penjualan Kelapa,” Indones. J. Math. Nat. Sci. Educ. 1(2), 130–135 (2020), doi:
10.35719/mass.v1i2.31.
6. Pusat Riset Kelautan, “Prediksi Produksi Garam Nasional 2021,” Pus. Ris. Kelaut. BRSDMKP Kementeri. Kelaut.
dan Perikan. Indones., vol. 2021, 2021, [Online]. Available:
http://pusriskel.litbang.kkp.go.id/index.php/en/publikasi/prediksi-produksi-garam.
7. F. Pangestu, A. W. Widodo, and B. Rahayudi, “Prediksi Jumlah Kendaraan Bermotor di Indonesia Menggunakan
Metode Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series Models,” J. Pengemb. Teknol. Inf. dan Ilmu Komput., 2(9), 2923–2929
(2018).
8. K. Rachmawansah, “Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series untuk Peramalan Kurs Valuta Asing ( Studi Kasus pada
Nilai Tukar USD-IDR dan EUR-USD ),” J. Mhs. Stat. 2(6), 413 (2014).
9. Y. Ujianto and M. I. Irawan, “Perbandingan Performansi Metode Peramalan Fuzzy Time Series yang Dimodifikasi
dan Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan Backpropagation,” J. Sains Dan Seni ITS 4(2), 2015.
10. M. L. Tauryawati and M. I. Irawan, “Perbandingan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Cheng dan Metode Box-Jenkins
untuk Memprediksi IHSG,” J. Sains dan Seni ITS 3(2), A34–A39 (2014), [Online]. Available: www.idx.co.id.

020015-7