Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Policy
Block 4, 2023
Agriculture and
development
Dagim Belay
Department of Food and
Resource Economics
Email: dgb@ifro.ku.dk
• Learning outcomes
• Describe the significance of agriculture’s contribution to
developing economies
(1) Agriculture is a very large and key sector in most poor countries.
• Shifting Cultivation
• True whether we look at output per unit of land (yield) or output per unit
of labor ( "productivity" )
Agr icu lt u r e a n d D ev e l o p m e n t
M i c r o Estimates of Output per Land
Agr icu lt u r e a n d D ev e l o p m e n t
M i c r o Estimates of Land Per Worker
• Some micro studies compute not only yield but also labor.
▪ Hint:
Agr icu lt u r e a n d D ev e l o p m e n t
Evidence: Yield Gaps in Sub-Saharan Africa
Example: Multiple Crops in Ethiopia
Agr icu lt u r e a n d D ev e l o p m e n t
Evidence: Fertilizer Use
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Agr icu lt u r e a n d D ev e l o p m e n t
Input Use
What Do These Data Really Show?
farmers’ fields.
• How are technologies evaluated?
• How would one measure on-farm effectiveness of a technology?
Technologies Are Not P r o f i table
• Prices of inputs and outputs may make technologies
unattractive to farmers.
• Shadow prices; not market prices!
• In particular, shadow price of labor, as the key input.
• Also shadow prices of home consumed goods...
• Huge measurement problems.
• Shadow price of labor may also vary over the course of the year.
• Shadow price of labor may vary across tasks, time of day.
• Not the same price for all members of the household...
• Linking credit with insurance has even been shown to drive down
credit demand (Banerjee et al. 201417 and Giné and Yang 2009).
• Adopting insurance can increase risk-taking in
production decisions
• Where insurance projects have been successful in achieving
widespread uptake (largely via free distribution) they tend
to increase the appetite for activities vulnerable to risk
(Cole et al. 2013, Mobarak and Rosenzweig 2012,
Gunnsteinson 2014, Cai et al. 2009 and Cai 2016).
Evidence Summary
• Price information can lead to a reduction in price dispersion;
however, farmers often need more than price information to
access more profitable points of sale
• RCT
Using 1/4, 1/2, and 1 teaspoon of fertilizer increases yield by 28, 48,
and 63 percent, respectively. The full package increases yield by 91
percent.
Agricultural marketing and commercialization
“Consumption is the sole end purpose of all production: and the
interest of the producer ought to be attended to only so far as it
may be necessary for promoting that of the consumer.”
Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations (1776)
Belay, D., Ayalew H. 2020. “Nudging farmers using price information in crop choice:
Evidence from Ethiopian Commodity Exchange”. Agricultural Economics 51(5): 793– 807
Motivation
• Most rural households in developing countries make a large part of their livelihood
from rain-fed crop production, susceptible to incidences of crop failure due to
various agricultural shocks (drought, flooding, pest attack, etc.) and price volatility.
• Decision to produce cash crops entails market-related risks, often inhibiting the
potential of households to benefit from growing cash crops in developing countries.
• Reducing uncertainty, the most pervasive aspect of market risk, by ensuring access
to market price information is theoretically considered to be among the least costly
methods of inducing farmers to plant risky but high-return cash crops.
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• Access to reference market price information can also influence the decision of crop
choice, the most important decision in the farming activity.
• Very scant literature on crop choice response to PI. Only Goyal (2010) attempted to
estimate output response to price information
• Existing studies mostly rely on prices from private source of information, single crop or
mobile coverage,
• Variation in timing and spatial distance of price display screens as an indicator for
variation in intensity of access to price information.
The Ethiopian Commodity exchange (ECX)
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Theoretical Framework
Increased
allocation of inputs
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Research Questions
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76
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Internal Validity tests
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Mechanisms
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Findings
• Access to price information through price display screens has nudged farmers
to plant more of ECX traded commodities.
• If we reduce the distance from households to the nearest plasma display
screen by half, then the output share of ECX-traded commodities increases
by 9.6 percentage points.
• reducing the distance from the EA to the nearest plasma display screen by
half increases the share of land allocated to ECX-traded commodities by
4.25 percentage points.
• More fertilizer and other inputs allocated to traded commodities in ECX
Mechanisms
• Increased average farm gate prices for traded commodities
• Reduced price variance of ECX traded commodities
WDR 2008: Four Policy Objectives
Suggestions for agricultural
based countries
• Improve access to markets and
develop modern market chains
• Capitalize on agricultural
growth to develop the rural
nonfarm sector
Thank You!
Top three take-home message of today’s lecture
1. Message 1
2. Message 2
3. Message 3