6.

3 Testing for one proportion

Setup Xi Xn it Bernoulli p
X X t t Xn Binomial hip summarizes all data
Want to explore hypotheses about p
Ho p p us Hi p
E Po
Need test statistic
X M X M
CLT IN Coin a Nco
on f npf it
PNEIXI
1pct min
P I N Lo 1

p Po
test stat
i We can use Z fp.ci pain as a

ifnistangen ble CLT requires large n

 Po
c

7
Step 1 Define parameter R V and set up hypotheses ignoring
the data
Let p true proportion of U.S baby girls born in 2017
who were named Alexa
We want to test
Ho p 311 100000 us Hi P I 311 100000
at 2 0.05 level of significance
Step 2 Define the test statistic and find its distribution
assuming Ho is true
p Po Ho 101011
Test statistic Z
type pot
Step 3 Draw the sampling dist and decide how strange
critical value region
your data are using p value
52125000 0.00311
Observed test z
stat
f 0.00311 1 o 003111 25000

21925
7 2.925
N p value P Z C 2.925 2 Reject Ho if 22 Zo.us
I P Z 2.925 2.925 Z C Zo 05 1 64

1 0.9983
0.0017 LL
Step 4 Make a choice between Ho and th express this carefully
Since lil p value a 121 Za Za 1.64 we

reject Ho in favor of H at 2 0.05 level of significance

It appears that usage of de name Alexa was lower
in 2017 than in 2015
 Wait Is that Normal Approx Any Good
It
Earlier Z ÉIgn by at
NCo.nl When can
the sign
we trust

Some introductory textbook Need npo 10 na poi 710

Check Npo 25000 0.00311 77.75 310
Nfl po 25000 1 0.00311 24922.25 3 to

Larsen and Marx Need max of

Binomial
min of
Binomial
O Npo 3 npo G pot Chlo 13 npo i pot Cnt A

this ensures the D

meant3E.sn
of Xn Binomial Chip is
in range Mo
299.97 Normal
Check for n 25000 Po 0.00311
0 51.342 104 16 C 25000
Consider X Binomial 50 pl What is the 1st picture that
feels normal to you

increase npo and decrease nap

Condition p 0.05 17 0.12 17 0.17 12 0.23

A inequality X X V V
np na p 10 X X X U

In our class you may check either condition

Option 1

Option 2

Hi P Po p value P Z z

H pepo p value P Z ez

H p p p value 217 23121 2P Ze 171

 O O
Fn T successes
Step 1 Define parameter R V and set up hypotheses ignoring
the data
Let p the proportion of death in the 3 month window
before their birthdays We want to test
Ho Death postponement is nonsense P 3 12 0.2

H Death postponement is real p c o 25

at a 0.01 level of significance
Step 2 Define the test statistic and find its distribution
assuming Ho is true
Test stat Z
JEFF É N Coil if npo 10
n fi Po 310
Npo 747 0 25 3 10 n i pot 747 0.75 310
Step 3 Draw the sampling dist and decide how strange
critical value region
your data are using p value

Observed test stat

60 747 0.25
Z 10.71
0 2510.751 747

Step 4 Make a choice between Ho and th express this carefully

Since 10.71 L Zo o
2 2.31 we
reject H
in favor of th at 2 0.01 level of significance
There seems to be statistically significance evidence
to support the death postponement claim
 Optional Material
What if
normality conditions are not met Np to

can happen when or

n is small
n t Po 10
expensive to conduct experiments
p is small rare traits events

Recall X X t r
t Xn X Binomial in.pl summarizes all dat
n

can use X as a test statistic

gives an EXACT test
uses Binomial PMF to calculate an EXACT

p value

Exact tests do not rely on approximate distributions

of the test statistic
Approximate tests require use of a distribution that only
approximate the situation
 10

SI Let X of
females with migrains who benefit from
real acupuncture Then Xu Binomial 43 pl We want
to test
Ho p 0.043 us Hi p 0.043
at the x 0.05 level of significance
observing the
p value P same or more
1 Ho is true
extreme data

P X 10 17 0.043

It 4 0.957743
P X K p 0.043 0.043

T C 2 0.05
I 1 12 10
So we reject the in favor of H at x 0.05 level of sig

Binomial 43 0.0437