North-South Divide in India's Demographic Scene

Author(s): Ashish Bose

Source: Economic and Political Weekly , May 13-19, 2000, Vol. 35, No. 20 (May 13-19,
2000), pp. 1698-1700
Published by: Economic and Political Weekly

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 Commentary
100 members. Bravo. A commission nor-

North-South Divide in mally has 3 to 11 members. I have not

heard of a commission like this. It will

India's Demographic Scene

meet twice a year in Vigyan Bhawan and
going by my experience, most of the time
of the secretary of the commission will be
spent on sending out invitations, arrang-
The buffoonery over the country's population crossing the one ing security passes, good snacks and lunch,
billion mark is no doubt hilarious, but we have allowed ourselvesTA and DA for members of the commis-
sion who, no doubt, will come out with
to be carried away by numbers andfailed to grasp the more
brilliant ideas on population stabilisation
fundamental demographic issues facing our economy and society. in 2045!
One such issue is discussed here. This buffoonery is no doubt hilarious
but I feel deeply disturbed at the demo-
ASHISH BOSE before the electronic media with the bless-
Table 1: Year by which Projected TFR
ings of UNFPA and GOI. The baby was
Will be 2.1 in Selected States
find nothing more hilarious than the subjected to torture by exposing her con-
media frenzy, especially the westerntinuously to the multitude of people and South Achieved in
Kerala 1983
print and electronic media, trying torepresentatives of the press assembled Tamil Nadu 1993
project May 11, 2000 as an earth-shatter-there. Some doctors fear that the eyes of Andhra Pradesh 2002
ing day when India's population crossed the newborn child might have been per-Karnataka 2009
North
the billion mark. Given the demographic manently damaged by the camera flash-
Rajasthan 2019
momentum, this was inevitable and I find lights, apart from the danger to her tenderBihar 2039
nothing exciting about it. Indians have askin and the possibility of infection. The
Madhya Pradesh Beyond 2060
penchant for celebrating 'days' which UNFPA
is announced a cash award for the Uttar Pradesh Beyond 2100
girl child and the GOI too joined in of-
perhaps a brahminical legacy. I was there- Source: Registrar General's Expert Comm
fore not amused when a serious demo- fering many incentives to the girl child. Population Projections, 1997.
But one may ask: Why pamper a girl born Table 2: Per Cent of India's Total
grapher, the executive director of the Popu-
lation Foundation of India (earlier knownof a middle class family in a city hospital Population in Different States
as the Family Planning Foundation) wrote when thousands of children are born every
1991 2021 2051
to me: "As you are aware, populaticnday of without any institutional care? I am
North
India is going to cross the billion mark tired
on of commenting on foreign 'kubuddhi'
Uttar Pradesh 16.4 20.0 26.8
May 11, 2000 around 1 pm, according(bad to advice) which has vitiated our familyBihar 10.2 10.4 9.9
the projections made by the Registrar planning programme. To make peopleMadhya Pradesh 7.8 8.1 7.8
General of India. This day is going to aware
be of the gravity of the populationRajasthan 5.2 6.1 6.9
problem of India on May 11 when theSub-total 39.6 44.6 51.4
observed as the Day of the Billion..." I was
South
population was supposed to have crossed
a member of the Registrar General' s Expert Andhra Pradesh 7.9 6.7 5.6
Committee on Population Projections one up billion (in my view, we crossed thisKarnataka 5.3 4.9 4.3
to 2016 (as required by the Planning Com-figure last year), was it necessary to projectTamil Nadu 6.6 5.3 4.2
Kerala 3.4 2.9 2.4
mission) but I do not recall our fixing inathe media how great an event the birth
Sub-total 23.2 19.8 16.5
precise 'muhoort' (sacred moment) for of a baby was and how happy the UNFPA
India attaining the billion-plus status.andIn GOI were to have showered so manySource: Population Foundat
New Delhi, there was a frantic search formonetary rewards on the baby? I think it
Table 3: Number of Lok Sabha Seats if
identifying a baby who will be born withinwas an insipid idea, to say the least. In- the Current 'Freeze' is Lifted
one second after midnight of May 10-11 cidentally,
! May 11 was celebrated as
1991 2001 2016
High level officials in the department National
of Technology Day - the second
family welfare (Government of India) also anniversary of Pokhran II, India's nuclear North

joined in this hunt. As one critic com- explosion. I don't know what message Uttar Pradesh 85 93 99
Bihar 54 54 56
mented: 'Why not get a lady doctor who people got but the message that I got wasMadhya Pradesh 40 43 44
will plan a Caesarean operation and that India, like China, had the 'manpower'Rajasthan 25 29 30
deliver the baby right on time to satisfy (one billion-plus population) and theSub-total 204 219 229
South
the ministry of health and family welfare?'
nuclear power to be a world power. I still
Andhra Pradesh 42 41 39
don't
Finally, on the fateful day, at 12.56 pm know what the UNFPA and GOI
Tamil Nadu 39 33 31
to be precise a drama was enacted wanted at to project. To cap it all, the prime Karnataka 28 28 27
Safdarjung Hospital (a government hos- minister, under the misguided advice of Kerala 20 17 16
Sub-total 129 119 113
pital) in New Delhi where a girl baby bornsome bureaucrats, announced a National
at 5.05 am on May 11 was presented Population Commission with more than Source: Population Founda

1698 Economic and Political Weekly May 13, 2000

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graphic scene, not so much because our
population has crossed one billion but
because we have been carried away by
numbers and failed to grasp the more
fundamental issues afflicting our economy
and society. I wish to share with my readers
at least one disturbing thought. (Based
on my Veda Prakash Memorial Lecture
delivered at the National Institute of Health
and Family Welfare, New Delhi, on
April 28, 2000, where I have discussed
five disturbing thoughts.)
This disturbing thought concerns the
growing demographic disparity between
different states in India, and in particular,
the disparity between the 'north' (my
acronym is BIMARU which stands for
Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and
Uttar Pradesh) and 'south' (Kerala, Tamil
Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka).
The southern states are doing well on the
family planning front. Kerala and Tamil
Nadu have already attained the replace-
ment level of fertility while the record of
the BIMARU states is most unsatisfactory.
These four states are truly sick ('bimaru'
in eastern Hindi dialect), demographically,
socially, economically and politically.
Bihar is a picture of anarchy. UP is not
very much better.
Morarji Desai government took over afterequated with demography. Political de-
the fall of the Indira Gandhi governmentmography is certainly a neglected field in
India. It was left to Myron Weiner of MIT
and put forward another Population Policy
which, however, retained the 'freeze' and
to do research on migration in Assam and
subsequent governments which came to its political implications. With the un-
power continued to do so (probably be-
employment problem not getting solved
cause 2001 was quite distant). The
Swaminathan Committee which submit- Table 5: Infant and Child Mortality Rates,
1998-99
ted its Draft National Population Policy to (Four Years Preceding the Survey)
Narasimha Rao government in 1994 (Per thousand)
recommended that the freeze be extended
IMR Child Under-5
up to the year 2011. Mortality Mortality
The Vajpayee government's National (1-4) (0-5)
Population Policy announced in FebruaryNorth
this year extends this freeze up to 2026. Uttar Pradesh 86.7 39.2 122.5
To quote the policy statement: Madhya Pradesh 86.1 56.4 137.6
Rajasthan 80.4 37.6 114.9
The 42nd Constitutional Amendment has
Bihar 73.0 34.6 105.1
frozen the number of representation in LokSouth
Sabha (on the basis of 1971 Census levels),Andhra Pradesh 65.0 21.0 84.7
and is valid until 2001. In order to enable Karnataka 51.5 18.9 69.4
Tamil Nadu 48.2 15.9 63.3
state governments to fearlessly pursue the
Kerala 16.3 2.6 18.8
agenda for population stabilisation, this
freeze must be extended until 2026.2 Note: States are arran
Source: Compiled fro
On the face of it, this seems to be a good Reports, 2000.
move in the sense that it does not favour
the poorly performing BIMARU states with Table 6: Total Fert
Woman (15-49
more seats in parliament while the south-
NFHS - 1 NFHS - 2
ern states have to pay a price for their
efficiency in running the family planningNorth
programme. But the catch is that if in the Uttar Pradesh 4.82 3.99

north and south the seats remain the same Rajasthan 3.63 3.78
Assuming that a total fertility rate (TFR)
Bihar 4.00 3.48
of 2.1 per woman will pave the way for (under the freeze) but population increases Madhya Pradesh 3.90 3.31
population stabilisation, the Registrar at different rates, the size of the average South
Andhra Pradesh 2.59 2.25
General's committee made the projections constituency will be disproportionately
Tamil Nadu 2.48 2.18
shown in Table 1. The Population Foun- large in the northern states calling for larger Karnataka 2.85 2.13
dation of India has recently brought out resources to stand for election. Will this Kerala 2.00 1.96
a monograph which gives population not violate the norms of equity in a de-
Note: For UP and
projections right up to the year 2051. In mocracy? Will it not lead to more corrup- refers to 1990-92 and NFHS-II refers to
Table 2 we summarise the position in regard tion brought about by the need to find more 1996-98, For MP NFHS-1 refers to 1989-91
to north and south which shows the in- funds to fight the election? This may land and NFHS-II refers to 1996-98. ForAP and
Tamil Nadu NFHS-I refers to 1989-91 and
creasing demographic disparity. In other us in serious political problems while trying
NFHS-II refers to 1996-98. For Karnataka
words, the population of BIMARU statesto achieve population stabilisation. Politi- and Kerala NFHS-1 refers to 1990-92 and
will increase from 39.6 per cent in 1991cal stability is as much a crying need as NFHS-II refers to 1996-98. The states are
to 51.4 per cent in 2051 while the popu-population stabilisation. Thanks to our arranged in descending order of TFR in
NFHS-II.
lation of the southern states will decrease obsession with family planning, it is 'con-
Source: Compiled from NFHS-II, Preliminary
from 23.2 per cent in 1991 to 16.5 per centtraceptive demography' which is being Reports, 2000.
in 2051.
If seats are adjusted in parliament ac- Table 4: Illiteracy Rate, 1998-99
cording to population size, the political
Female 6+ Male 6+
leverage of the southern states will decline. Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total
In Table 3 we give the estimates made by
North
the Population Foundation of India.
Bihar 35.1 69.3 65.4 18.2 39.2 36.7
For those not familiar with the 'freeze',
Rajasthan 37.5 71.4 62.8 14.3 32.5 27.9
we may point out that during the Emer- Uttar Pradesh 33.9 63.8 57.3 16.6 31.2 28.1
gency (1975-77), the Indira Gandhi Madhya Pradesh 33.5 63.1 55.6 12.5 33.9 28.2
South
government had come out with a National
Andhra Pradesh 32.8 61.8 54.4 15.6 39.5 33.3
Population Policy which, among other Karnataka 25.9 54.7 44.6 12.1 33.6 25.9
things, ordained that "the representation Tamil Nadu 26.8 50.0 42.0 11.0 25.3 20.3
in the Lok Sabha/and the state legislatures Kerala 10.5 16.6 15.1 4.6 8.0 7.2

will be frozen on the basis of the 1971

Note: The data refer to househo
Census until the year 2001".1 In 1977 the Source: Compiled from NFHS-II

Economic and Political Weekly May 13, 2000 1699

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anywhere, there will be increasing antago- contrast between north and south in terms has certainly complicated the situation.
nism between the sons of the soil and of illiteracy, infant and child mortality and But without attending to a host of internal
'outsiders' - the migrants, not only in fertility rate (TFR).
total problems which cumulatively assume the
Assam but all over India, particularly The in figures bring out the striking con- form of the Kashmir problem, mere use
the north-eastern states. trast between north and south. The success of violence, which often becomes indis-
Leaving aside political demography, even of our National Population Policy will lie criminate, not only adds to local alienation
the standard demographic analysis pre- in our ability to bridge the gap between but also weakens the country, politically,
sents a disturbing scene. Let me quote north and south. Our failure to do so will economically, diplomatically and morally.
some figures from the preliminary reports spell political disaster of the Sri LankaThe agenda for action for Indian states-
of the National Family Health Survey variety. I13 manship - not for government alone -
(NFHS-2), sponsored by the ministry of Notes includes release of pending detained po-
health and family welfare (funded by US litical leaders, confidence-building mea-
1 For details, see Ashish Bose, From Population
AID and UNICEF and coordinated by the sures, strict observance of human rights
to People, Vol II, 1988.
International Institute for Population 2 GOI, National Population Policy 2000, February and better understanding of diverse aspi-
Sciences). Tables 4 to 6 bring out the 2000. rations and interests of various regions and
ethnic communities. Above all, a more
humane and intelligent approach to the

Time for Alternatives to entire problem is required.

But the leaders of the Azadi movement
are perhaps in greater need for rethinking,

Violence in Kashmir if not on the ends, at least on the means

they have adopted so far. Over a decade
ago they could argue that a violent seces-
sionist movement was the only course for
It is not easy for the leaders of the Kashmiri people's movement the
to expression of their aspirations. The
show the courage that Gandhiji showed in Chaura Chauri. The risk system that did not honour the verdict of
too is far greater for them, most of all from the pro-Pakistan, the assembly election of 1983 and did not
allow the people to elect the government
Muslim extremist terrorists. But they have hardly any alternative
of their choice through the use of the ballot
except to seriously think of alternatives to violence. in the election of 1987 forced them to opt
out of the system and turn to the method
BALRAJ PURI A number of instances can be recalled of the bullet. The militant movement may
where the use of violence hurt the interest
also claim credit for reviving and
ne of the first prerequisites forof the side that used it. The classical example interationalising the Kashmir problem
fruitful talks between the govern- is that of firing on the funeral procession which was almost dead for the preceding
ment of India and the dissident ofMirwaiz Mohd Farooq, widely suspected two decades. Within the country, too, there
leaders of Kashmir, which are being specu-to have been killed by militants, in the early were persons whose conscience was dis-
lated about in the media after the releasestage of militancy. The firing diverted turbed over the way the centre had dealt
of the Hurriyat leaders, is de-escalation popular wrath against them towards thewith the affairs of the state, in general, and
of violence in the state. Or that should Indian government. It was excessive and with the situation in the initial phase of
indiscriminate use of violence which turned the insurgency, in particular.
be the first item of the agenda of the pro-
posed talks. The recent tragedies at militancy into mass insurgency and invited But before long, the limits of violence
international sympathy for the secessionist became manifest. To be sure, international
Chhatisinghpora and Pathribal should make
the government and the leaders of themovement. It may also be noted that the concern over the Kashmir problem and
Azadi movement realise that violence can state government's action in suspending sympathetic liberal Indian voices proved
go out of control and become self-defeat-those responsible for the police firing at inadequate to get justice to Kashmir. But
ing for either side. the Barakpora demonstration, exhuming violence dictated an unintended course for
If the massacre of 35 innocent, unarmedand identifying the bodies of those killed the movement which caused a gradual
and uninvolved Sikhs on March 20 at by the security forces at Pathribal and decline in outside concern and sympathy.
Chhatisinghpora caused universal outrage,appointing an inquiry commission com- First, it was not easy for the violent
including among Kashmiri Muslims against
prising a retired Supreme Court judge for movement to retain its autonomy in view
the first time reversed the unpopularity of its exclusive reliance for arms and train-
continuing violence, the killing of five
graph of the Farooq Abdullah government ing on Pakistan. Pakistan had offered
persons at Pathribal claimed by the secu-
rity forces to be militant killers ofinthe
Kashmir. support to the Azadi movement, which
Chhatisinghpora massacre but later found In any case, it should by now be obvious was inspired by sentiments of Kashmiriat,
to be innocent local civilians, followedtobythe central aryl state governments that but soon diverted it to the pro-Pak and
killings of eight demonstrators, protesting
basically the problem of Kashmir is po- extreme Muslim militants. The earliergroup
against the latter killings neutralised litical,
the arising out of discontent of the was almost wiped out as withdrawal of
local anger against the militant violence
people on various grounds, though the arms supply by Pakistan made it vulner-
and even created doubts about the identity
violent form of its expression with the help able to the Indian security forces. Simul-
of the killers of the Sikhs. of arms and armed militants from Pakistan taneously the new brand of militants took

1700 Economic and Political Weekly May 13, 2000

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