Press F9 to recalculate

MinVal MaxVal RAND () b/w 0

e.g.
and 1
250 475 0.3189742944

RISKUNIFORM() b/w MinVal

438.201288012275 and MaxVal
to recalculate
@RISK must
RANDBETWEEN () b/w MinVal be open
and MaxVal
353
 Excel simulation of Walton's Bo
Cost data Demand Distribution
Unit cost $ 7.50 Cumul. Prob.
Unit price $ 10.00
Unit refund $ 2.50

Decision variable
Order Quantity

Simulation
Replications/Iterations Random # Demand Revenue
on of Walton's Bookstore (no add-in used)
Demand Distribution Summary measures for simulation
Demand Probability Average profit
100 0.30 St. Dev. Of Profit
150 0.20 Minimum Profit
200 0.30 Maximum Profit
250 0.15 95% confidence interval of expected profit
300 0.05 Lower limit
Upper limit
n
Cost Refund Profit Distribution of Profits
Value
$ (250.00)
$ 125.00
$ 500.00

"Data table" for "Trial order quantities"

(Avg. Profit vs Order qty)

Order qty

100
125
150
175
200
225
250
 275
300

Which order quantity is the

best option....????
ures for simulation

erval of expected profit It means that we are

now 95% sure that
mean profit will fall
within this range

on of Profits
Frequency

0 Total #NAME?

ial order quantities"

g. Profit vs Order qty)

Avg. Profit

Maximum
EMV
quantity is the
on....????
 com prob Accident prob
0 yes 0.025
0.025 no 0.975

iteration prob of acc accident accident damange amount paid by insurance amount paid by you
1 0.4323953417 no 0 0 0
2 0.3463611786 no 0 0 0
3 0.1875708704 no 0 0 0
4 0.8203370107 no 0 0 0
5 0.022819079 yes 1796.908 796.908444733117 1000
6 0.6393703635 no 0 0 0
7 0.3084152349 no 0 0 0
8 0.5693731227 no 0 0 0
9 0.5016011019 no 0 0 0
10 0.6622521047 no 0 0 0
11 0.8985098737 no 0 0 0
12 0.3930164321 no 0 0 0
13 0.8555984463 no 0 0 0
14 0.7643622859 no 0 0 0
15 0.9128264876 no 0 0 0
16 0.026228921 no 0 0 0
17 0.7006453409 no 0 0 0
18 0.8315044009 no 0 0 0
19 0.5296038672 no 0 0 0
20 0.9326098151 no 0 0 0
21 0.038308057 no 0 0 0
22 0.680455498 no 0 0 0
23 0.7386477941 no 0 0 0
24 0.0098270154 yes 4146.804 3146.80380935981 1000
25 0.4014501244 no 0 0 0
26 0.5127757516 no 0 0 0
27 0.2124515258 no 0 0 0
28 0.6582818548 no 0 0 0
29 0.024827016 yes 2542.279 1542.27868717363 1000
30 0.3700650164 no 0 0 0
31 0.1276757167 no 0 0 0
32 0.1113422876 no 0 0 0
33 0.0804904316 no 0 0 0
34 0.1783626735 no 0 0 0
35 0.1127643947 no 0 0 0
36 0.9429330846 no 0 0 0
37 0.9465960887 no 0 0 0
38 0.5910106192 no 0 0 0
39 0.8987437193 no 0 0 0
40 0.3061382268 no 0 0 0
41 0.3943122301 no 0 0 0
42 0.5085675654 no 0 0 0
43 0.0728315126 no 0 0 0
44 0.859107534 no 0 0 0
45 0.5576416097 no 0 0 0
46 0.178216172 no 0 0 0
47 0.5683736703 no 0 0 0
48 0.9916364252 no 0 0 0
49 0.0411830813 no 0 0 0
50 0.3752415752 no 0 0 0
51 0.0908416504 no 0 0 0
52 0.4830892807 no 0 0 0
53 0.8366250492 no 0 0 0
54 0.8115878873 no 0 0 0
55 0.1301315685 no 0 0 0
56 0.4407231585 no 0 0 0
57 0.3725962768 no 0 0 0
58 0.9230660879 no 0 0 0
59 0.0932233524 no 0 0 0
60 0.323152032 no 0 0 0
61 0.7785589465 no 0 0 0
62 0.0434059098 no 0 0 0
63 0.692313437 no 0 0 0
64 0.3364194252 no 0 0 0
65 0.384432048 no 0 0 0
66 0.5799076765 no 0 0 0
67 0.1585373974 no 0 0 0
68 0.594707547 no 0 0 0
69 0.1248905327 no 0 0 0
70 0.4618345721 no 0 0 0
71 0.4381930999 no 0 0 0
72 0.7977969979 no 0 0 0
73 0.4844998952 no 0 0 0
74 0.8062121405 no 0 0 0
75 0.8443442492 no 0 0 0
76 0.238487015 no 0 0 0
77 0.2040949714 no 0 0 0
78 0.5681851667 no 0 0 0
79 0.0506504111 no 0 0 0
80 0.9445698644 no 0 0 0
81 0.366644758 no 0 0 0
82 0.6377573737 no 0 0 0
83 0.3061468653 no 0 0 0
84 0.917074246 no 0 0 0
 85 0.12143595 no 0 0 0
86 0.1222720585 no 0 0 0
87 0.676238685 no 0 0 0
88 0.192407874 no 0 0 0
89 0.9443807249 no 0 0 0
90 0.4103089841 no 0 0 0
91 0.2054118333 no 0 0 0
92 0.6063457945 no 0 0 0
93 0.2105123318 no 0 0 0
94 0.7792008981 no 0 0 0
95 0.1081428258 no 0 0 0
96 0.1175666792 no 0 0 0
97 0.9573402375 no 0 0 0
98 0.4324781621 no 0 0 0
99 0.9162500732 no 0 0 0
100 0.9222176119 no 0 0 0
101 0.8349614333 no 0 0 0
102 0.3632961099 no 0 0 0
103 0.7911127356 no 0 0 0
104 0.1776022508 no 0 0 0
105 0.5107436962 no 0 0 0
106 0.7665870726 no 0 0 0
107 0.7728539168 no 0 0 0
108 0.0520924004 no 0 0 0
109 0.7351862569 no 0 0 0
110 0.3708944109 no 0 0 0
111 0.8786918604 no 0 0 0
112 0.5937678778 no 0 0 0
113 0.1947273251 no 0 0 0
114 0.8129319882 no 0 0 0
115 0.8249658694 no 0 0 0
116 0.3731021122 no 0 0 0
117 0.0427395015 no 0 0 0
118 0.1885949948 no 0 0 0
119 0.0722437081 no 0 0 0
120 0.5470402104 no 0 0 0
121 0.4489823961 no 0 0 0
122 0.9780768505 no 0 0 0
123 0.8275951326 no 0 0 0
124 0.8199705005 no 0 0 0
125 0.9064290673 no 0 0 0
126 0.8340147164 no 0 0 0
127 0.6228734573 no 0 0 0
128 0.3633767899 no 0 0 0
129 0.7484787799 no 0 0 0
130 0.4927143021 no 0 0 0
131 0.8656816055 no 0 0 0
132 0.8215918986 no 0 0 0
133 0.521566461 no 0 0 0
134 0.7450207699 no 0 0 0
135 0.2493419092 no 0 0 0
136 0.1432769239 no 0 0 0
137 0.2027263937 no 0 0 0
138 0.5522458812 no 0 0 0
139 0.2284673242 no 0 0 0
140 0.0202166598 yes 2063.797 1063.79688991351 1000
141 0.0709907133 no 0 0 0
142 0.2210853262 no 0 0 0
143 0.7895934752 no 0 0 0
144 0.9107660271 no 0 0 0
145 0.3274150593 no 0 0 0
146 0.4692469719 no 0 0 0
147 0.8391400726 no 0 0 0
148 0.6532409457 no 0 0 0
149 0.2004426175 no 0 0 0
150 0.349985863 no 0 0 0
151 0.4178058811 no 0 0 0
152 0.0800061203 no 0 0 0
153 0.7619255096 no 0 0 0
154 0.9789133177 no 0 0 0
155 0.2537900684 no 0 0 0
156 0.2267342864 no 0 0 0
157 0.2755642444 no 0 0 0
158 0.4000437398 no 0 0 0
159 0.5702293023 no 0 0 0
160 0.0112983118 yes 1481.569 481.568564521266 1000
161 0.1550507638 no 0 0 0
162 0.5895529068 no 0 0 0
163 0.8969227688 no 0 0 0
164 0.3090894384 no 0 0 0
165 0.3552218713 no 0 0 0
166 0.9745151636 no 0 0 0
167 0.7434527573 no 0 0 0
168 0.0558183238 no 0 0 0
169 0.2560585818 no 0 0 0
170 0.8519789294 no 0 0 0
171 0.179727021 no 0 0 0
172 0.6425983051 no 0 0 0
173 0.1998582197 no 0 0 0
174 0.6637305845 no 0 0 0
175 0.5668203584 no 0 0 0
176 0.5084459629 no 0 0 0
177 0.7658666861 no 0 0 0
178 0.4959183027 no 0 0 0
179 0.1489205701 no 0 0 0
180 0.2184460603 no 0 0 0
181 0.7415201595 no 0 0 0
182 0.4029184944 no 0 0 0
183 0.5039223909 no 0 0 0
184 0.9501307822 no 0 0 0
185 0.6648419761 no 0 0 0
186 0.7667342387 no 0 0 0
187 0.3549910269 no 0 0 0
188 0.2534641554 no 0 0 0
189 0.0565423982 no 0 0 0
190 0.189559806 no 0 0 0
191 0.0691671503 no 0 0 0
192 0.4989701857 no 0 0 0
193 0.9621672367 no 0 0 0
194 0.8394030022 no 0 0 0
195 0.516180002 no 0 0 0
196 0.9330346466 no 0 0 0
197 0.1852286267 no 0 0 0
198 0.8223289502 no 0 0 0
199 0.9671284404 no 0 0 0
200 0.882718657 no 0 0 0
201 0.6184120206 no 0 0 0
202 0.6998191679 no 0 0 0
203 0.2160923359 no 0 0 0
204 0.5788911734 no 0 0 0
205 0.7258897585 no 0 0 0
206 0.5157232293 no 0 0 0
207 0.0336180907 no 0 0 0
208 0.7048794654 no 0 0 0
209 0.0818139205 no 0 0 0
210 0.6150532677 no 0 0 0
211 0.7669582275 no 0 0 0
212 0.4118926059 no 0 0 0
213 0.3441390831 no 0 0 0
214 0.7841344646 no 0 0 0
215 0.1318895757 no 0 0 0
216 0.3372372747 no 0 0 0
217 0.8495834202 no 0 0 0
218 0.9453357111 no 0 0 0
219 0.2334802465 no 0 0 0
220 0.7817331145 no 0 0 0
221 0.8445944342 no 0 0 0
222 0.5780714674 no 0 0 0
223 0.0991931765 no 0 0 0
224 0.8655250058 no 0 0 0
225 0.1949266639 no 0 0 0
226 0.1667669766 no 0 0 0
227 0.5595440864 no 0 0 0
228 0.0586610853 no 0 0 0
229 0.6149486814 no 0 0 0
230 0.1692997005 no 0 0 0
231 0.9266334966 no 0 0 0
232 0.9669039947 no 0 0 0
233 0.7479393708 no 0 0 0
234 0.7385841521 no 0 0 0
235 0.8708245901 no 0 0 0
236 0.1066069597 no 0 0 0
237 0.1692651835 no 0 0 0
238 0.8065913929 no 0 0 0
239 0.9633485808 no 0 0 0
240 0.5707410469 no 0 0 0
241 0.5609575201 no 0 0 0
242 0.3230268148 no 0 0 0
243 0.0825733889 no 0 0 0
244 0.7910630517 no 0 0 0
245 0.3183617716 no 0 0 0
246 0.5074550538 no 0 0 0
247 0.9838588508 no 0 0 0
248 0.7257003005 no 0 0 0
249 0.0753104878 no 0 0 0
250 0.2614139563 no 0 0 0
251 0.0049339606 yes 4038.019 3038.01912303518 1000
252 0.9081457841 no 0 0 0
253 0.5187994085 no 0 0 0
254 0.7722724236 no 0 0 0
255 0.4061172538 no 0 0 0
256 0.519608667 no 0 0 0
257 0.0691778673 no 0 0 0
258 0.1980362793 no 0 0 0
259 0.9104639116 no 0 0 0
260 0.7752479934 no 0 0 0
261 0.0455842812 no 0 0 0
262 0.2849848652 no 0 0 0
263 0.9790144707 no 0 0 0
264 0.3199362999 no 0 0 0
265 0.5409284653 no 0 0 0
266 0.1913447621 no 0 0 0
267 0.0098942596 yes 3650.648 2650.64848321078 1000
268 0.0660727273 no 0 0 0
269 0.1429719972 no 0 0 0
270 0.3729892666 no 0 0 0
271 0.9619356479 no 0 0 0
272 0.09336218 no 0 0 0
273 0.8197160717 no 0 0 0
274 0.2224564816 no 0 0 0
275 0.5955841014 no 0 0 0
276 0.5574173864 no 0 0 0
277 0.4625173197 no 0 0 0
278 0.8300573765 no 0 0 0
279 0.5183147422 no 0 0 0
280 0.9766468866 no 0 0 0
281 0.6067788121 no 0 0 0
282 0.6388560949 no 0 0 0
283 0.426485762 no 0 0 0
284 0.9520454809 no 0 0 0
285 0.8857348496 no 0 0 0
286 0.4419021549 no 0 0 0
287 0.3610488826 no 0 0 0
288 0.3742617423 no 0 0 0
289 0.5650520724 no 0 0 0
290 0.7000416245 no 0 0 0
291 0.8400542523 no 0 0 0
292 0.4343634085 no 0 0 0
293 0.0797229739 no 0 0 0
294 0.5227646843 no 0 0 0
295 0.0867730948 no 0 0 0
296 0.4529618438 no 0 0 0
297 0.1023560864 no 0 0 0
298 0.5599973708 no 0 0 0
299 0.9231146182 no 0 0 0
300 0.0495046435 no 0 0 0
301 0.3136131109 no 0 0 0
302 0.748634361 no 0 0 0
303 0.2485710431 no 0 0 0
304 0.3783122046 no 0 0 0
305 0.3388643084 no 0 0 0
306 0.3498492094 no 0 0 0
307 0.766209085 no 0 0 0
308 0.6180884275 no 0 0 0
309 0.5656502749 no 0 0 0
310 0.8386346494 no 0 0 0
311 0.7220506808 no 0 0 0
312 0.4434172505 no 0 0 0
313 0.8612575049 no 0 0 0
314 0.8252876177 no 0 0 0
315 0.0034481291 yes 3694.476 2694.47586574666 1000
316 0.7026822733 no 0 0 0
317 0.4247722464 no 0 0 0
318 0.6806621742 no 0 0 0
319 0.3248977149 no 0 0 0
320 0.0185259518 yes 3442.875 2442.87509612773 1000
321 0.8859052704 no 0 0 0
322 0.2154554878 no 0 0 0
323 0.3450798286 no 0 0 0
324 0.4711878681 no 0 0 0
325 0.3609559507 no 0 0 0
326 0.6955693201 no 0 0 0
327 0.6109905044 no 0 0 0
328 0.6107575173 no 0 0 0
329 0.906730299 no 0 0 0
330 0.0831293191 no 0 0 0
331 0.738475257 no 0 0 0
332 0.5096091141 no 0 0 0
333 0.6355903055 no 0 0 0
334 0.0305511794 no 0 0 0
335 0.7798241477 no 0 0 0
336 0.0361310329 no 0 0 0
337 0.4834548246 no 0 0 0
338 0.0546167435 no 0 0 0
339 0.885248296 no 0 0 0
340 0.8861318636 no 0 0 0
341 0.2622069673 no 0 0 0
342 0.7571799784 no 0 0 0
343 0.0556164855 no 0 0 0
344 0.090303771 no 0 0 0
345 0.9419843405 no 0 0 0
346 0.6232693695 no 0 0 0
347 0.0876780397 no 0 0 0
348 0.1194481862 no 0 0 0
349 0.5007412926 no 0 0 0
350 0.5077005244 no 0 0 0
351 0.9251343296 no 0 0 0
352 0.6489183203 no 0 0 0
353 0.1594571509 no 0 0 0
354 0.7727644844 no 0 0 0
355 0.8051479531 no 0 0 0
356 0.9822677555 no 0 0 0
357 0.7333856982 no 0 0 0
358 0.0517740771 no 0 0 0
359 0.810959824 no 0 0 0
360 0.3785660605 no 0 0 0
361 0.9970241996 no 0 0 0
362 0.0836264568 no 0 0 0
363 0.2595292182 no 0 0 0
364 0.9318921492 no 0 0 0
365 0.9728975552 no 0 0 0
366 0.9384992029 no 0 0 0
367 0.3755123964 no 0 0 0
368 0.6854587686 no 0 0 0
369 0.80645865 no 0 0 0
370 0.3217349862 no 0 0 0
371 0.6092654086 no 0 0 0
372 0.5120161004 no 0 0 0
373 0.359552876 no 0 0 0
374 0.9253169295 no 0 0 0
375 0.9674359813 no 0 0 0
376 0.9235380566 no 0 0 0
377 0.5726586532 no 0 0 0
378 0.8702994044 no 0 0 0
379 0.4797097312 no 0 0 0
380 0.2686819892 no 0 0 0
381 0.9998957299 no 0 0 0
382 0.6950875142 no 0 0 0
383 0.1490135923 no 0 0 0
384 0.028299034 no 0 0 0
385 0.0140895462 yes 2689.937 1689.9369866166 1000
386 0.008595785 yes 4459.684 3459.68431534739 1000
387 0.7794781916 no 0 0 0
388 0.8145165806 no 0 0 0
389 0.4892270075 no 0 0 0
390 0.9150734082 no 0 0 0
391 0.2908106455 no 0 0 0
392 0.2765328498 no 0 0 0
393 0.2109603495 no 0 0 0
394 0.7290594496 no 0 0 0
395 0.8472271231 no 0 0 0
396 0.7686654883 no 0 0 0
397 0.0245719461 yes 3160.304 2160.30388510383 1000
398 0.8010674717 no 0 0 0
399 0.5611123411 no 0 0 0
400 0.2707227526 no 0 0 0
401 0.1083344302 no 0 0 0
402 0.1301821683 no 0 0 0
403 0.4649434277 no 0 0 0
404 0.2503836454 no 0 0 0
405 0.5836808741 no 0 0 0
406 0.4012830589 no 0 0 0
407 0.0482468785 no 0 0 0
408 0.7410095453 no 0 0 0
409 0.3312941566 no 0 0 0
410 0.3674193818 no 0 0 0
411 0.4693979277 no 0 0 0
412 0.3122249493 no 0 0 0
413 0.8786475232 no 0 0 0
414 0.1383019461 no 0 0 0
415 0.4428710941 no 0 0 0
416 0.5775797712 no 0 0 0
417 0.6700643672 no 0 0 0
418 0.0699068725 no 0 0 0
419 0.8653275854 no 0 0 0
420 0.3096174679 no 0 0 0
421 0.1910204611 no 0 0 0
422 0.2173200388 no 0 0 0
423 0.3142082921 no 0 0 0
424 0.0634850268 no 0 0 0
425 0.9938820629 no 0 0 0
426 0.1299328915 no 0 0 0
427 0.0542349497 no 0 0 0
428 0.6085912768 no 0 0 0
429 0.3529428096 no 0 0 0
430 0.2427018363 no 0 0 0
431 0.1407317672 no 0 0 0
432 0.0755982318 no 0 0 0
433 0.4087261735 no 0 0 0
434 0.4993479142 no 0 0 0
435 0.9314089677 no 0 0 0
436 0.3417376014 no 0 0 0
437 0.0224063691 yes 4123.986 3123.98624878176 1000
438 0.7242074781 no 0 0 0
439 0.7333421395 no 0 0 0
440 0.2076984067 no 0 0 0
441 0.1233527737 no 0 0 0
442 0.1065558241 no 0 0 0
443 0.7658916421 no 0 0 0
444 0.3820299924 no 0 0 0
445 0.6914336473 no 0 0 0
446 0.9101096306 no 0 0 0
447 0.433483432 no 0 0 0
448 0.1394846305 no 0 0 0
449 0.8895996088 no 0 0 0
450 0.3860281697 no 0 0 0
451 0.6287554017 no 0 0 0
452 0.8904021412 no 0 0 0
453 0.5267050014 no 0 0 0
454 0.081701639 no 0 0 0
455 0.4914684527 no 0 0 0
456 0.133493374 no 0 0 0
457 0.3421723779 no 0 0 0
458 0.7531848648 no 0 0 0
459 0.0613875703 no 0 0 0
460 0.455678301 no 0 0 0
461 0.1542421047 no 0 0 0
462 0.0384112424 no 0 0 0
463 0.4357861124 no 0 0 0
464 0.5125947327 no 0 0 0
465 0.0189334587 yes 3813.406 2813.40562469126 1000
466 0.7515488624 no 0 0 0
467 0.9966724128 no 0 0 0
468 0.0832770328 no 0 0 0
469 0.3079103985 no 0 0 0
470 0.601380184 no 0 0 0
471 0.6385229899 no 0 0 0
472 0.7922732318 no 0 0 0
473 0.2759837847 no 0 0 0
474 0.6048378895 no 0 0 0
475 0.0716044645 no 0 0 0
476 0.8640134871 no 0 0 0
477 0.9523230154 no 0 0 0
478 0.2455870315 no 0 0 0
479 0.1856563804 no 0 0 0
480 0.283239486 no 0 0 0
481 0.8935768325 no 0 0 0
482 0.4257651315 no 0 0 0
483 0.50118705 no 0 0 0
484 0.7335001169 no 0 0 0
485 0.0368524435 no 0 0 0
486 0.0453570044 no 0 0 0
487 0.3960050196 no 0 0 0
488 0.264789971 no 0 0 0
489 0.9981049677 no 0 0 0
490 0.2996248725 no 0 0 0
491 0.7621139355 no 0 0 0
492 0.9261868352 no 0 0 0
493 0.2928771394 no 0 0 0
494 0.3675044697 no 0 0 0
495 0.165945107 no 0 0 0
496 0.0456581061 no 0 0 0
497 0.0941970477 no 0 0 0
498 0.5533471238 no 0 0 0
499 0.1671466213 no 0 0 0
500 0.2384619338 no 0 0 0
501 0.7185684259 no 0 0 0
502 0.3014570729 no 0 0 0
503 0.2330272498 no 0 0 0
504 0.7877825067 no 0 0 0
505 0.0920979118 no 0 0 0
506 0.3039036156 no 0 0 0
507 0.5630147215 no 0 0 0
508 0.8950105948 no 0 0 0
509 0.2922325261 no 0 0 0
510 0.3350766937 no 0 0 0
511 0.2633880848 no 0 0 0
512 0.8206573415 no 0 0 0
513 0.5963223704 no 0 0 0
514 0.0100521422 yes 3883.252 2883.25159515305 1000
515 0.7017918518 no 0 0 0
516 0.7839541301 no 0 0 0
517 0.7333593092 no 0 0 0
518 0.8920718168 no 0 0 0
519 0.4362220469 no 0 0 0
520 0.1432010504 no 0 0 0
521 0.111067119 no 0 0 0
522 0.8583420954 no 0 0 0
523 0.6788610336 no 0 0 0
524 0.2657303075 no 0 0 0
525 0.7518118225 no 0 0 0
526 0.1683606178 no 0 0 0
527 0.903182088 no 0 0 0
528 0.7387595418 no 0 0 0
529 0.2978742134 no 0 0 0
530 0.1243103472 no 0 0 0
531 0.9845165433 no 0 0 0
532 0.1643407952 no 0 0 0
533 0.0677011196 no 0 0 0
534 0.9268637994 no 0 0 0
535 0.7701965566 no 0 0 0
536 0.4992680449 no 0 0 0
537 0.983160249 no 0 0 0
538 0.2352759757 no 0 0 0
539 0.2713805023 no 0 0 0
540 0.2688665069 no 0 0 0
541 0.5070081588 no 0 0 0
542 0.4012210655 no 0 0 0
543 0.3764034476 no 0 0 0
544 0.4148986757 no 0 0 0
545 0.8028281016 no 0 0 0
546 0.4991561474 no 0 0 0
547 0.6315961101 no 0 0 0
548 0.9261911997 no 0 0 0
549 0.3627928911 no 0 0 0
550 0.6347980345 no 0 0 0
551 0.0172994421 yes 2714.171 1714.17105732682 1000
552 0.0883284695 no 0 0 0
553 0.284596964 no 0 0 0
554 0.1757489222 no 0 0 0
555 0.7508786662 no 0 0 0
556 0.6870855564 no 0 0 0
557 0.187612671 no 0 0 0
558 0.3476655581 no 0 0 0
559 0.4764953965 no 0 0 0
560 0.1512465455 no 0 0 0
561 0.3428852201 no 0 0 0
562 0.7840746636 no 0 0 0
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5090 0.1486329068 no 0 0 0
5091 0.5248915507 no 0 0 0
5092 0.0987641292 no 0 0 0
5093 0.6391659689 no 0 0 0
5094 0.8303173662 no 0 0 0
5095 0.7977271427 no 0 0 0
5096 0.8255706771 no 0 0 0
5097 0.5258371792 no 0 0 0
5098 0.2594117714 no 0 0 0
5099 0.3971403812 no 0 0 0
5100 0.7347845112 no 0 0 0
5101 0.7626887437 no 0 0 0
5102 0.8067860431 no 0 0 0
5103 0.8785442601 no 0 0 0
5104 0.2568663953 no 0 0 0
5105 0.8110958094 no 0 0 0
5106 0.6497896115 no 0 0 0
5107 0.9628104256 no 0 0 0
5108 0.2065164128 no 0 0 0
5109 0.6520949091 no 0 0 0
5110 0.1650615609 no 0 0 0
5111 0.8566910632 no 0 0 0
5112 0.9786830941 no 0 0 0
5113 0.5096440936 no 0 0 0
5114 0.1030119678 no 0 0 0
5115 0.1814230841 no 0 0 0
5116 0.4293232905 no 0 0 0
5117 0.8851780331 no 0 0 0
5118 0.2534594312 no 0 0 0
5119 0.2866473015 no 0 0 0
5120 0.4582513817 no 0 0 0
5121 0.9202292431 no 0 0 0
5122 0.9007269829 no 0 0 0
5123 0.6063883403 no 0 0 0
5124 0.8510949076 no 0 0 0
5125 0.5921677847 no 0 0 0
5126 0.8725557947 no 0 0 0
5127 0.1975576161 no 0 0 0
5128 0.5539537683 no 0 0 0
5129 0.6755962269 no 0 0 0
5130 0.1836358418 no 0 0 0
5131 0.4135871107 no 0 0 0
5132 0.5467992658 no 0 0 0
5133 0.8726399517 no 0 0 0
5134 0.5766835986 no 0 0 0
5135 0.2760523617 no 0 0 0
5136 0.0558238168 no 0 0 0
5137 0.4064187177 no 0 0 0
5138 0.4349098854 no 0 0 0
5139 0.3386575114 no 0 0 0
5140 0.3093627654 no 0 0 0
5141 0.6427530494 no 0 0 0
5142 0.7648270246 no 0 0 0
5143 0.3651294668 no 0 0 0
5144 0.1461497491 no 0 0 0
5145 0.4452589534 no 0 0 0
5146 0.5254261311 no 0 0 0
5147 0.5501837712 no 0 0 0
5148 0.2586180902 no 0 0 0
5149 0.2350591768 no 0 0 0
5150 0.4728489878 no 0 0 0
5151 0.3068480433 no 0 0 0
5152 0.1880965131 no 0 0 0
5153 0.8168498152 no 0 0 0
5154 0.4128484346 no 0 0 0
5155 0.42377806 no 0 0 0
5156 0.1493323645 no 0 0 0
5157 0.1283373847 no 0 0 0
5158 0.1705611716 no 0 0 0
5159 0.474670699 no 0 0 0
5160 0.2852759036 no 0 0 0
5161 0.7589805847 no 0 0 0
5162 0.0743813081 no 0 0 0
5163 0.104769595 no 0 0 0
5164 0.2231172368 no 0 0 0
5165 0.2264031876 no 0 0 0
5166 0.5384530431 no 0 0 0
5167 0.0052803902 yes 3831.963 2831.96282005941 1000
5168 0.6623836758 no 0 0 0
5169 0.4300202648 no 0 0 0
5170 0.4223437612 no 0 0 0
5171 0.3590859115 no 0 0 0
5172 0.8484592046 no 0 0 0
5173 0.9273290959 no 0 0 0
5174 0.7200636768 no 0 0 0
5175 0.1246743176 no 0 0 0
5176 0.4621477939 no 0 0 0
5177 0.2525525213 no 0 0 0
5178 0.3393374612 no 0 0 0
5179 0.4539910797 no 0 0 0
5180 0.3205356965 no 0 0 0
5181 0.5925274906 no 0 0 0
5182 0.363666218 no 0 0 0
5183 0.8847120801 no 0 0 0
5184 0.8034310117 no 0 0 0
5185 0.5993402084 no 0 0 0
5186 0.5079354053 no 0 0 0
5187 0.1241614013 no 0 0 0
5188 0.8335523952 no 0 0 0
5189 0.7301523001 no 0 0 0
5190 0.2713382643 no 0 0 0
5191 0.3401551971 no 0 0 0
5192 0.4533996101 no 0 0 0
5193 0.7589009129 no 0 0 0
5194 0.2080626205 no 0 0 0
5195 0.9441700525 no 0 0 0
5196 0.5667101032 no 0 0 0
5197 0.770037301 no 0 0 0
5198 0.7406898464 no 0 0 0
5199 0.1711901201 no 0 0 0
5200 0.1666284547 no 0 0 0
5201 0.5409135474 no 0 0 0
5202 0.9369667293 no 0 0 0
5203 0.8006682841 no 0 0 0
5204 0.3473038088 no 0 0 0
5205 0.6572172485 no 0 0 0
5206 0.305703823 no 0 0 0
5207 0.1456366838 no 0 0 0
5208 0.9018945023 no 0 0 0
5209 0.2235503599 no 0 0 0
5210 0.7878671633 no 0 0 0
5211 0.3840658117 no 0 0 0
5212 0.3991366079 no 0 0 0
5213 0.02317107 yes 2569.762 1569.76216966693 1000
5214 0.3278423613 no 0 0 0
5215 0.7095802296 no 0 0 0
5216 0.9008657293 no 0 0 0
5217 0.709534188 no 0 0 0
5218 0.7078443937 no 0 0 0
5219 0.0932444644 no 0 0 0
5220 0.2965740458 no 0 0 0
5221 0.7385781774 no 0 0 0
5222 0.0409913156 no 0 0 0
5223 0.3939798329 no 0 0 0
5224 0.8326846918 no 0 0 0
5225 0.8339498059 no 0 0 0
5226 0.1754776597 no 0 0 0
5227 0.8466818519 no 0 0 0
5228 0.7077590145 no 0 0 0
5229 0.9955462132 no 0 0 0
5230 0.2896790251 no 0 0 0
5231 0.1469611474 no 0 0 0
5232 0.7922532064 no 0 0 0
5233 0.4682003028 no 0 0 0
5234 0.9269533902 no 0 0 0
5235 0.5450579465 no 0 0 0
5236 0.8709805088 no 0 0 0
5237 0.6177821967 no 0 0 0
5238 0.8868123491 no 0 0 0
5239 0.521668373 no 0 0 0
5240 0.1692944137 no 0 0 0
5241 0.1939016947 no 0 0 0
5242 0.4371581202 no 0 0 0
5243 0.0862979055 no 0 0 0
5244 0.6254812514 no 0 0 0
5245 0.3079258293 no 0 0 0
5246 0.0145825607 yes 2476.099 1476.09918603367 1000
5247 0.4485698726 no 0 0 0
5248 0.0986956306 no 0 0 0
5249 0.483807813 no 0 0 0
5250 0.6183999589 no 0 0 0
5251 0.7813473157 no 0 0 0
5252 0.5548595533 no 0 0 0
5253 0.9919008634 no 0 0 0
5254 0.0859793512 no 0 0 0
5255 0.3630914346 no 0 0 0
5256 0.6551225296 no 0 0 0
5257 0.2656491079 no 0 0 0
5258 0.7085360611 no 0 0 0
5259 0.7693186611 no 0 0 0
5260 0.9531109402 no 0 0 0
5261 0.4328958489 no 0 0 0
5262 0.7705062439 no 0 0 0
5263 0.0234491679 yes 2946.075 1946.07467477567 1000
5264 0.4282952505 no 0 0 0
5265 0.2599699425 no 0 0 0
5266 0.5854938093 no 0 0 0
5267 0.2301589427 no 0 0 0
5268 0.2441973666 no 0 0 0
5269 0.7689184365 no 0 0 0
5270 0.0484587653 no 0 0 0
5271 0.4341459961 no 0 0 0
5272 0.2795260065 no 0 0 0
5273 0.0642003228 no 0 0 0
5274 0.6219409169 no 0 0 0
5275 0.0332803289 no 0 0 0
5276 0.0953685013 no 0 0 0
5277 0.6639915751 no 0 0 0
5278 0.3168218247 no 0 0 0
5279 0.6327897143 no 0 0 0
5280 0.1230340457 no 0 0 0
5281 0.8004756327 no 0 0 0
5282 0.5979872064 no 0 0 0
5283 0.7206254799 no 0 0 0
5284 0.4740828988 no 0 0 0
5285 0.0680979563 no 0 0 0
5286 0.8819308327 no 0 0 0
5287 0.7629180542 no 0 0 0
5288 0.1621707216 no 0 0 0
5289 0.2580246309 no 0 0 0
5290 0.7060443945 no 0 0 0
5291 0.6698000978 no 0 0 0
5292 0.7773264542 no 0 0 0
5293 0.6907739542 no 0 0 0
5294 0.9444934985 no 0 0 0
5295 0.4217917982 no 0 0 0
5296 0.0565405601 no 0 0 0
5297 0.3310817799 no 0 0 0
deductible damage
1000 mean 3000
sd 750

average damage paid by you 25.67491

st dev 158.1785

upper limit 335.7047

lower limit -284.3549

Data Table
25.67491
500 12.83746
1000 25.67491
1500 38.5016
2000 50.91047
Average of damages paid by insurance 54.06958
st dev 351.9007

upper limt 743.7949

lower limit -635.6558
 Demand
Cost data 5

Unit cost $ 3.00 10

Unit price $ 10.00 15

Unit refund $ 6.00 20

25
Decision variable
Order Quantity cakes per day baked 20
Simulation
Replications/Iterations Random # Demand Revenue
0.2632 15 $ 150
0.3679 15 $ -
0.0565 10 $ -
0.6901 20 #VALUE!
0.4843 15 $ 3
0.4256 15 $ 4
0.6925 20 $ 1
0.8321 20 $ 7
0.9592 25 $ 5
0.1766 10 $ 4
0.1400 10 $ 7
0.5266 15 $ 8
0.1427 10 $ 10
0.3014 15 $ 2
0.4729 15 $ 1
0.5464 15 $ 5
0.2068 10 $ 1
0.2920 15 $ 3
0.3317 15 $ 5
0.8589 25 $ 5
0.4634 15 $ 2
0.4721 15 $ 3
0.2961 15 $ 3
0.0802 10 $ 9
0.1486 10 $ 5
0.1370 10 $ 5
0.6022 15 $ 3
0.1468 10 $ 1
0.9133 25 $ 1
0.1876 10 $ 1
0.1558 10 $ 6
0.2177 10 $ 1
0.6102 15 $ 9
0.8218 20 $ 2
0.0559 10 $ 2
0.5069 15 $ 2
0.5076 15 $ 6
0.7428 20 $ 8
0.8246 20 $ 1
0.5026 15 $ 5
0.6181 15 $ 5
0.5891 15 $ 7
0.0395 5 $ 8
0.8052 20 $ 5
0.4173 15 $ 6
0.8964 25 $ 6
probability comm prob Demand

0.05 0 5

0.2 0.05 10

0.4 0.25 15

0.2 0.65 20
0.15 0.85 25

Cost Refund Profit

$ 60 $ 30 $ 120
$ 60 $ 30 $ (30)
$ 60 $ 60 $ -
$ 60 $ - #VALUE!
$ 60 $ 30 $ (27)
$ 60 $ 30 $ (26)
$ 60 $ - $ (59)
$ 60 $ - $ (53)
$ 60 $ - $ (55)
$ 60 $ 60 $ 4
$ 60 $ 60 $ 7
$ 60 $ 30 $ (22)
$ 60 $ 60 $ 10
$ 60 $ 30 $ (28)
$ 60 $ 30 $ (29)
$ 60 $ 30 $ (25)
$ 60 $ 60 $ 1
$ 60 $ 30 $ (27)
$ 60 $ 30 $ (25)
$ 60 $ - $ (55)
$ 60 $ 30 $ (28)
$ 60 $ 30 $ (27)
$ 60 $ 30 $ (27)
$ 60 $ 60 $ 9
$ 60 $ 60 $ 5
$ 60 $ 60 $ 5
$ 60 $ 30 $ (27)
$ 60 $ 60 $ 1
$ 60 $ - $ (59)
$ 60 $ 60 $ 1
$ 60 $ 60 $ 6
$ 60 $ 60 $ 1
$ 60 $ 30 $ (21)
$ 60 $ - $ (58)
$ 60 $ 60 $ 2
$ 60 $ 30 $ (28)
$ 60 $ 30 $ (24)
$ 60 $ - $ (52)
$ 60 $ - $ (59)
$ 60 $ 30 $ (25)
$ 60 $ 30 $ (25)
$ 60 $ 30 $ (23)
$ 60 $ 90 $ 38
$ 60 $ - $ (55)
$ 60 $ 30 $ (24)
$ 60 $ - $ (54)
#NAME? 3 0.1
4 0.2
#NAME? 5 0.6
6 0.1
 Walton Booksto
Demand distribution:
Cost data Triangular
Unit cost $ 7.50 Minimum 100
Unit price $ 10.00 Most likely 175
Unit refund $ 2.50 Maximum 300

Summary measures of profit from

Decision Variable
Order quantity 150 Minimum
RiskSimtable(H21:L21) Maximum
Average
Standard deviation
Educated 5th percentile
95th percentile
Forecast
P(Profit <= 300)
P(Profit > 400)

150
 Walton Bookstore Calendar Purchasing Case

Simulation
Demand Revenue

ROUND(RiskTriang(G4,G5,G6),0) MIN(I5,C10)*C5

measures of profit from @RISK

(based on 1000 iteratio

viation
e
ile
300)
00)

Order quantities to try

175 200
Case

mulation
Cost Refund Profit

C4*C10 IF(C10>I5,C10-I5,0)*C6 J5-K5+L5

(based on 1000 iterations)

ies to try
225 250
 Walton Bookstore Calendar Purchasing Case (with a
Cost attributes Demand attributes
Unit cost 1 $ 7.50 Regular price Sale price
Unit cost 2 $ 7.25 Min 100 0
Regular price $ 10.00 M.Likely 175 50
Discounted price $ 5.00 Max 300 75

Decision variable Order quantities to try

Order Quantity 150 150 175 200 225
RiskSimtable(D10:H10)
Simulated quantities At Regular Price
Maximum supply Actual supply Cost Demand Revenue Leftover

ROUND(RiskTriang( ROUND(RiskTrian B6*MIN(C1

MIN(B14,B10) IF(B14>=B10 MAX(C14
I5,I6,I7),0) g(E5,E6,E7),0) 4,E14)
,B4,B5)*C14 -E14,0)
g Case (with additional uncertainty)
Supplier Summary measures of profit from @RISK (based on 1000
attributes iterations for each simulation)
Min 125 Simulation 1 2 3 4 5
M.Likely 200 Order Qty 150 175 200 225 250
Max 250 Minimum
Maximum
o try
Get this information from
Average
250 StDev
summary Tab in @RISK and
5th percentile select best order qty
At Sale Price 95th percentile
Demand Revenue Profit

Name it "ProfitAdditional" and Designate it as

ROUND(Risk an output cell in @RISK
B7*MIN( F14+I14-
Triang(F5,F6
G14,H14) D14
,F7),0)
from
K and
ty