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Biodiversity: Climate Change or Habitat Loss — Which Will Kill More Species?

Article in Current Biology · March 2008

DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2007.11.055 · Source: PubMed

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Dispatch
R117
behavior, whereas activation of the
other classes of neurons caused an
accordion-like contraction of the
larvae. This experiment is not only
fascinating because of the modern
genetic tricks that allowed Hwang et al.
[8] to turn light into a ‘harmful’ stimulus.
The experiment clearly demonstrates
that activation of class IV neurons is
sufficient to cause the nocifensive
rolling behavior, whereas the other
classes of multidendritic neurons might
serve different functions in the context
of coordinated locomotion.
One observation was puzzling,
however: the larvae rolled more often
towards the side from which the
noxious stimulus came rather than
away from it. To understand this
seeming paradox, Hwang et al. [8]
considered how such a behavior might
have evolved. In nature, a serious
threat for insect larvae are parasitoids,
insects whose larvae feed from the
body of other insects [11]. Drosophila
melanogaster has such an enemy in the
parasitoid wasp Leptopilina boulardi,
whose females penetrate the larvae
with their ovipositor and lay their eggs
Biodiversity: Climate Change or
Habitat Loss — Which Will Kill More
Species?
Habitat loss and climate change both kill off species. New studies show that the
latter is a potent threat. Worse, its victims will likely be mostly those not
presently threatened by habitat loss.
Stuart L. Pimm
The important questions about species
extinctions in the face of global climate
change are clear. As geographical
ranges shift, some may contract. For
some, the envelope of climatic
conditions that describes the species’
present range may no longer exist. The
species will likely go extinct. How many
species might suffer this fate [1]?
Vitally, because a species cannot go
extinct twice, are the species that
global change dooms different from
the ones that habitat losses have
exterminated or soon will?
The problems come from predicting
future species’ ranges. The idea that
species ranges might be neatly
inside the larval body. Hwang et al. [8]
showed that indeed Drosophila larvae
can defend themselves against such
wasp attacks by performing their
rolling behavior. In a kung-fu-like
fashion, the larva wraps the wasp’s
sting around its body, flips the
attacking wasp through the air and
onto its back, which gives the larva time
to escape. This fascinating new study
by Hwang et al. [8] vividly illustrates
that animal behavior often can be
understood only if the context of the
animal’s natural ecology is taken into
account.
References
1. Tracey, I., and Mantyh, P.W. (2007). The
cerebral signature for pain perception and its
modulation. Neuron 55, 377–391.
2. Vosshall, L.B., and Stocker, R.F. (2007).
Molecular architecture of smell and taste in
Drosophila. Annu. Rev. Neurosci. 30,
505–533.
3. Kernan, M.J. (2007). Mechanotransduction and
auditory transduction in Drosophila. Pflugers
Arch. 454, 703–720.
4. Tobin, D.M., and Bargmann, C.I. (2004).
Invertebrate nociception: behaviors, neurons
and molecules. J. Neurobiol. 61, 161–174.
5. Woolf, C.J., and Ma, Q. (2007). Nociceptors–
noxious stimulus detectors. Neuron 55,
353–364.
constrained by temperature and other
climatic variables is irresistibly
seductive to anyone capable of gaining
access to databases on species’
ranges and the output of climate
models predicting future climate
variables, and who has the ability to
write the necessary computer code to
connect one to the other. The
assumptions to do this, however, are
many and important. Are such
modelling exercises predicting future
ranges simply pointless?
Science has measured the
increasing atmospheric concentrations
of greenhouse gases with improving
precision for decades. The physical
consequences range from simple
increases in global temperatures to
6. Tracey, W.D., Jr., Wilson, R.I., Laurent, G., and
Benzer, S. (2003). Painless, a Drosophila gene
essential for nociception. Cell 113, 261–273.
7. Song, W., Onishi, M., Jan, L.Y., and Jan, Y.N.
(2007). Peripheral multidendritic sensory
neurons are necessary for rhythmic locomotion
behavior in Drosophila larvae. Proc. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA 104, 5199–5204.
8. Hwang, R.Y., Zhong, L., Xu, Y., Johnson, T.,
Zhang, F., Deisseroth, K., and Tracey, W.D.
(2007). Nociceptive neurons protect Drosophila
larvae from parasitoid wasps. Curr. Biol. 17,
2105–2116.
9. Boyden, E.S., Zhang, F., Bamberg, E.,
Nagel, G., and Deisseroth, K. (2005).
Millisecond-timescale, genetically targeted
optical control of neural activity. Nat. Neurosci.
8, 1263–1268.
10. Schroll, C., Riemensperger, T., Bucher, D.,
Ehmer, J., Völler, T., Erbguth, K., Gerber, B.,
Hendel, T., Nagel, G., Buchner, E., et al.
(2006). Light-induced activation of distinct
modulatory neurons triggers appetitive or
aversive learning in Drosophila larvae. Curr.
Biol. 16, 1741–1747.
11. Godfray, H.C. (2004). Parasitoids. Curr. Biol. 14,
R456.
Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg,
Lehrstuhl für Genetik und Neurobiologie,
Theodor-Boveri-Institut, Biozentrum,
Am Hubland, 97074 Würzburg, Germany.
E-mail: afiala@biozentrum.uni-wuerzburg.de
DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2007.11.054
many more complex, and so
sometimes less certain, changes. Yet,
temperature increases alone create
ineluctable biological complexities.
Every species has to worry about
finding food, avoiding predators,
disease, and other enemies, selecting
the nooks and crannies and other
physical features that afford
protection, and so on down a long list.
The temperature at which Mother
Nature sets her thermostat is only one
of many concerns. That said, many
plant species are limited by frosts and
much solid natural history suggests
that temperature and rainfall are key
predictors of species’ ranges. Root’s
[2] quantification of the large fraction
of North American bird species that
have their northern winter ranges
corresponding to particular average
winter temperatures confirms that
temperature is a factor that either
directly or indirectly affects many
species over large areas.
Does a warming climate actually
change what species do? That is
a tougher question. The important
answer must again be a general one
that evaluates most species across
Current Biology Vol 18 No 3
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widespread. In fact, it no longer breeds

in Britain regularly.
Perhaps one should not expect to
be able to predict future ranges.
Studies of British insects show that the
patterns of northward range expansion
are mechanistically very complex [9],
with changes in habitats, food plants,
and dispersal that conventional
wisdom might have easily expected to
be in the opposite directions to those
observed [6]. Studies in the
Netherlands of pied flycatchers and
their insect prey show equally complex
patterns varying from year to year and
place to place [10]. Ecological reality
may not respect computational
convenience.
Given these difficulties, how should
one respond to recent work by
Sekercioglu et al. [11] that predicts the
Figure 1. A perspective view of the coastal moist forests of (mostly) the State of Rio de Janeiro fate of the world’s 8500 landbird
in Brazil, looking towards the north-east. species. They predict that 400 to 550 of
From the island in the bottom centre to the point (Cabo Frio) at the middle right is roughly them will go extinct by 2100 for
360 km. Forested areas are green, while cleared land is buff-coloured. Little forest remains a warming estimate of 2.8 C, with
except along two mountain ranges — one following the coast, the other further inland. Within a further 2150 species at risk of
the ‘field guide range’, of T. atra, Sekercioglu et al. [11] chose areas within the present day extinction. Perhaps their most alarming
elevations, shown here in translucent blue. This species presently lives in areas that have
retained almost all their forest cover. With global warming, this species will have to move
prediction is that only 21% of these
uphill to retain the same envelope of temperatures — into the very much smaller areas species are presently on the watch-list
shown in green. Figure generated using imagery from ESRI’s ArcGIS Online data service of species at risk of extinction [12]. That
(ESRI, Inc., Redlands, California). Species range map data provided by NatureServe in list already contains about 12% of the
collaboration with Robert Ridgely, James Zook, The Nature Conservancy’s Migratory Bird world’ birds, ones mostly threatened
Program, Conservation International’s CABS, World Wildlife Fund - US, and Environment by habitat loss, but also a basket of
Canada - WILDSPACE.
other factors.
In the Americas, the coastal moist
many ecosystems. Ecological effects expanding. Increasingly compelling tropical forests of coastal Brazil contain
are so diverse and multi-factorial compilations find that many complete the greatest concentration of
that one can usually find a few ranges are shrinking [7]. threatened bird species [13]. This
cherry-picked examples of almost Genetic algorithms, such as GARP [8], biodiversity hotspot contains more
anything. Comprehensive analyses by can provide near-perfect descriptions than 200 endemic bird species. It has
Root et al. [3], Parmesan and Yohe [4], of present day species ranges. With no lost more than 90% of its natural forest
and Fitter and Fitter [5] examined constraint on the number of parameters, cover, with the greatest losses in the
a thousand or more individual studies. they would also readily describe the accessible lowlands. The rugged
Not every study finds significant Mona Lisa’s smile. Understanding is higher elevations still have extensive
changes, but these analyses found another matter. Few studies can test the forest cover (Figure 1).
a huge preponderance of biological predictions of future ranges against real Sekercioglu et al. [11] compiled
changes in the expected direction. The data, for one needs spatially detailed species range maps and then
most common data are from one and consistent observations over ‘trimmed’ them. For a detailed view of
location over many years — the widely separated times. British their methods, consider the black and
flowering times of plants or the arrival birdwatchers are up to the task. gold cotinga, Tijuca atra, that lives
dates of bird migrants, for example. As Araújo and Rahbek [8] report, between 1200 and 2050 meters above
Importantly, there are studies across the models are not. Some 90% of the sea level in the region’s cloud forests.
many locations. They show species 116 species modelled using their Its ‘field guide range’ consists of an
moving to places previously too cold actual 1970s distribution ‘‘differed area that spans the two roughly parallel
for them. Great Britain, cold, damp, markedly’’ in their actual and predicted mountain ranges running from the
with depressingly few species, but ranges in the 1990s. One of the more bottom left of the figure to the top
inexplicably large numbers of amateur obvious examples is the red-backed right — and all the lowland areas in
naturalists to care for them, provides shrike, Lanius collurio, a bird I between. Sekercioglu et al.’s [11] first
studies with detail rarely duplicated remember fondly from my youth step was to trim the ‘field guide ranges’
elsewhere [6]. because it occurred in warm, open to the appropriate elevations. In this
Whether species ranges shrink with habitats that afforded a chance to dry case, only a very small fraction of this
global warming is yet another issue. We out my usually sodden camping possible range is within the bird’s
know species best at their cold, equipment as I looked for it. As the elevation limits — visible in the figure as
northern limits, where they are climate warmed it should have become small isolated patches of blue.
 Dispatch
R119
With global warming, Sekercioglu
et al. [11] predict that this species
should live 560 meters higher,
corresponding to a 2.8 C warming.
Their model does not permit a future
range to fall outside of the geographical
‘field guide range’. It does allow
species to move upwards inside it.
There are some areas where it could
(theoretically) move uphill, to the places
shown in light green. Not every
population will be so lucky. Other
populations have no higher elevations
into which to escape.
T. atra lives in remote mountain
forests. It is common and has fared far
better than lowland forest species
because of its isolation. Yet, it is clearly
a species at considerable risk from
climate change. At even greater risk is
its congener, the grey-winged cotinga,
Tijuca condita. Sekercioglu et al. [11]
did not model for it as it is one of the
world’s rarest species and there was
insufficient information about it [12].
Living in forests at higher elevations
than T. atra, it has even fewer places to
which to flee the heat.
Understanding the details of
Sekercioglu et al. [11] is a daunting
task. So, too, is understanding Jetz
et al. [14], whose work covers similar
ground and draws broadly comparable
conclusions. I had many moments of
‘‘why did they make that assumption?’’
and ‘‘what would be different if they
used my scenario rather than theirs?’’
Moreover, these two species reach the
present day tree line in many locations,
so if the species are to move uphill,
then their forest habitat must do so
first — and do so within the century in
which the climate will warm. These
questions come on top of all the
concerns raised earlier about the entire
climate-envelope modelling process.
Do these results have any credibility?
My emphatic ‘‘yes’’ comes from
considering the governing dynamics.
First, across a wide range of taxa, most
species have much smaller than
average geographical ranges. This is
the reverse of the Lake Wobegon
effect, where famously all children are
above average. Simply, there are a few
species with huge geographical ranges
and they inflate the average. Second,
Mother Nature is unkind. Small-ranged
species are typically both locally rare
and have narrow elevational limits [15].
It gets worse. If New World passerine
birds are typical, a quarter of all species
live in mountains and so face moving
uphill into inevitably smaller areas.
View publication stats
Many rare, narrowly limited species
with small geographical ranges live
in lowland tropical forests and are
already threatened by the extensive
deforestation there. For New World
passerine bird species, w1500 live
mostly below 1000 meters. There are,
however, another w500 that live
entirely above 1000 meters above
sea level [15]. In coastal Brazil, they
have fared better than their lowland
counterparts. Thus far, that is. Simple
physics determines that there is always
less area, the higher one climbs.
Certainly, the climate models can
make the wrong predictions. The shrike
illustrates Sod’s law — everything that
can go wrong will and at the worst
possible moment. The bird did worse,
not better than expected. Faced with
a promising future in Britain,
persecution (from egg collectors) and
the bird’s small populations in
fragmented habitats likely doomed it. Of
course, massive habitat fragmentation
and hunting are threats to many of the
world’s small-ranged species.
The ecological details may be
sublime, and the models of them
worryingly simplistic, but the
overarching conclusion is chilling.
Large numbers of species, thus-far
largely unaffected by human actions,
are in danger of extinction from climate
change.
References
1. Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E.,
Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J.,
Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., Ferreira de
Siqueira, M., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., et al.
(2004). Extinction risk from climate change.
Nature 427, 145–148.
Developmental Biology: Cell
Intercalation One Step beyond
Formation of the primitive streak, the equivalent of the blastopore, is a critical
step during the early development of amniote embryos. Medio-lateral cell
intercalation and the planar cell polarity pathway play a role during this earliest
step of gastrulation in the chick embryo.
Bertrand Bénazéraf
and Olivier Pourquié*
Formation of the primitive streak is the
first sign of gastrulation in amniotes,
such as birds and mammals. The
primitive streak is a stripe of cells
defining the future midline of the
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(2007). Predicted impacts of climate change
and land-use change on the global biodiversity
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Nicholas School of the Environment and
Earth Sciences, Room A301 LSRC building,
Box 90328, Duke University, Durham,
North Carolina 27708, USA.
E-mail: StuartPimm@aol.com
DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2007.11.055
embryo and is considered to be
functionally equivalent to the
amphibian blastopore. During amniote
gastrulation, cells from the superficial
epithelial layer, the epiblast, ingress
ventrally throughout the streak to
form the two internal germ layers:
the mesoderm and the endoderm.