SHAHJALAL UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, SYLHET

Course: CEE-561
Assignment on Transportation Modeling
Assignment-01

Submitted by Submitted to
Uday Kumar Das Dr. Bashirul Haque
MSc (General)/M1 Professor, CEE, SUST
Session 2022-23
INTRODUCTION

The objective of a basic linear regression is to make predictions about the value of a
dependent variable using an independent variable. The accuracy of the prediction improves
as the strength of the linear connection between the independent variable and the dependent
variable increases.

OBJECTIVES

 To estimate three linear regression model that predicts the average Trip per
Occupied Dwelling Unit (TODU), which serves as the dependent variable. The
independent variables used for prediction include Average Car Ownership (ACO),
Average Household Size (AHS), Social Rank Index (SRI), and Urbanization Index (UI).
dwelling unit.

The objective is to identify the most suitable linear regression model among the
options provided, along with an explanation for the selection.

DATA ANALYSIS

Hypothesis

Hypothesis testing is a statistical method employed to evaluate assertions or assumptions

concerning the distribution of a dependent variable and an independent variable. In the
context of linear regression, the assertion is that a correlation exists between the dependent
variables and independent variables. This claim is represented by non-zero coefficients of
predictor variables or independent variables in the linear equation or regression model, and
it is assessed using "t-tests".

Potential reasons for the independent variables can be considered as follows:

Variables Effect Explanation

ACO + The increase in car ownership typically leads to positive
outcomes.
AHS + The usual outcome is a positive impact when the size of a
household grows. However, the situation can either stay
unchanged or become less favorable if the number of
residents remain the same or decrease.
SRI + Social Rank Index often results in positive outcomes.
UI - This index measures in a rather negative way the degree of attachment to
the home. High values for this index imply less attachment to the home
because of fewer children, a higher likelihood of women being
employed, and less permanency of dwelling unit type in terms of average
tenure. However, UI often leads to positive outcomes.
Model – 1: Predicts the average Trip per Occupied Dwelling Unit (TODU) with Average Car
Ownership (ACO) and Average Household Size (AHS).

Model – 2: Predicts the average Trip per Occupied Dwelling Unit (TODU) with Average Car
Ownership (ACO), Average Household Size (AHS) and Social Ranking Index (SRI).
Model – 3: Predicts the average Trip per Occupied Dwelling Unit (TODU) with Average Car Ownership
(ACO), Average Household Size (AHS) and Urbanization Index (UI).

RESULT:
After examining three proposed models, it has been discovered that,

Model -1:
TODU = -1.2722 + 5.5049ACO + 0.6834AHS

Model-2:
TODU = -2.14374 + 5.13351ACO + 0.91232AHS + 0.00896SRI

Model-3:
TODU = 3.6486 + 3.8431ACO + 0.1538AHS - 0.0358UI
Evaluation of proposed Models:

1. Hypothesis evaluation

Models Variables Considered Evaluation of Hypothesis

ACO
Commonly positive Discovered the accurate one

Proposed AHS Commonly positive Discovered the accurate one

Models 1 to 3
SRI Commonly positive Discovered the accurate one

UI Commonly negative Discovered the accurate one

2. The calculated "Adjusted R square" values obtained from the suggested models are as follows:

Model No “Adjusted R square” value Observation

Model-1 0.641373
Model-2 0.641368
Model-3 0.67956 Highest value

3. “T-Test”:

T-test
Model No Variables
Values Comments
Model-1 ACO 8.9637 Significant
AHS 2.4370 Significant
ACO 7.0958 Significant
Model-2 AHS 2.4909 Significant
SRI 0.9723 Not Significant
ACO 4.555 Significant
Model-3 AHS Not Significant
0.4673
UI -2.715 Significant
DISCUSSION:

Using the given data, the model determines the highest achievable number by comparing the
results of linear regression data analysis. It aims to find the optimal solution that maximizes
the average Trip per Occupied Dwelling Unit (TODU), which will be used to design the traffic
network for the specified city.

The first model start with two variables ACO and AHS. From the regression analysis, it is found that the
hypothesis of those two variables is correct and both are found significant by T-test. The adjusted R2
value (0.641373) is also reasonably accepted. Hence, from Model-1, we kept both ACO and AHS as
basic variables in the model analysis.

In the second model, we include the variable SRI along with ACO and AHS. From the regression
analysis, it is found that the hypothesis of those three variables is correct but SRI is found insignificant by
the T-test. So, we drop SRI in the next model.

In the third model, we include the variable UI along with ACO, AHS and drop SRI, it is found that the
hypothesis of all three variables is correct but AHS are insignificant by T-test. But the value of the
adjusted R2 increased to 0.679 and the other two variables (ACO and UI) including the intercept are
significant under T-test. Hence, Model-3 is considered the best model among in this regard.

Also, analyzing the coefficients of the four independent variables reveals that –
i. The Average Car Ownership (ACO) is the primary factor including the average Trip per Occupied
Dwelling Unit (TODU) in that city.
ii. The regression analysis revealed that the average Trip per Occupied Dwelling Unit (TODU) does
not increase as the Urbanization Index (UI) increases.