CHAPTER 4

BASIC PROBABILITY
 Introduction

4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability

4-2 Addition Rules for Probability

4-3 Multiplication Rules & Conditional Probability

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 DEFINITION

• Probability is the numerical measure of the likelihood that an

event in the future will happen or

Probability can be defined as the chance of an event occurring

 SAMPLE SPACES AND PROBABILITY
❑A probability experiment is a chance process that leads to well-
defined results called outcomes.
❑ An outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability
experiment.
❑ A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment. The symbol ( S ) is used for the sample
space .

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 SOME SAMPLE SPACES

Experiment Sample Space

Toss a coin S={Head , Tail }

Roll a dice

Answer a true/false question S={True, False}

Toss two coins S={HH,HT, TH, TT}

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 ❑ An event consists of outcomes of a probability
Experiment .
event

Simple event Compound event

is an event with is an event with containing
one outcome. more than one outcome.
For example : roll a die
S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
A={6} B = Odd no. = { 1 , 3 , 5 }
Simple event Compound event
E = Even no. = { 2 , 4 , 6 }
6 Compound event
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❑ Types of probability:

➢ Classical Probability

➢ Empirical Probability or Relative Frequency.

➢ Subjective Probability.

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 Classical probability
❑ Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine
the numerical probability that an event will happen and
assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are
equally likely to occur.
❑ Equally Likely Events are events that have the same
probability
of occurring

n(E)# of desired outcomes

P(E) = =
n ( S ) Total # of possible outcomes

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 EXAMPLE

When a single die is rolled ,what is the probability of getting a number

less than 7 ?

S={1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6} , A ={1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6}

P(A)= = 6/6 = 1

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EXAMPLE
 CLASS WORK
• The sample space of the toss of a fair die is
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
If the die is balanced each simple event has the same
probability. Find the probability of the following
events.
a. An even number
b. A number less than or equal to 4
c. A number greater than or equal to 5
d. A number 9
 CLASS WORK # 1

1. Consider the experiment of tossing a coin twice.

a. Develop a tree diagram for the experiment.
b. List the experimental outcomes.
c. What is the probability for each experimental outcome?
 CLASS WORK # 2
1. An experiment has four equally likely outcomes:
E1, E2, E3, and E4.
a. What is the probability that E2 occurs?
b. What is the probability that any two of the outcomes
occur (e.g., E1 or E3)?
c. What is the probability that any three of the outcomes
occur (e.g., E1 or E2 or E4)?
 CLASS WORK # 2

• The sample space of the toss of a fair die is

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
If the die is balanced each simple event has the same
probability. Find the probability of the following
events.
• a. An odd number
• b. A number less than or equal to 5
• c. A number greater than or equal to 3
 Probability Rules
There are four basic probability rules:

➢ First Rule: For any event E 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1

Second Rule: If an event E cannot occur then P(E)= 0.

➢ Third Rule: If an event E is certain to occur,

then P(S) =1.

➢Fourth Rule: The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in

the sample space is 1 ∑ p = 1
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 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
•.
 Example
Find the complements of each event.
Event ( E ) Complement of Event ( E )
Rolling a die and getting a 4
Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6

Selecting a month and getting a Getting February, March, April,

month that begins with a J. May, August, September, October,
November, or December

Selecting a day of the week that Getting

begins with the letter T Sunday,Monday,Wednesday,Friday
and Saturday
 Rule for Complementary Events

Example :
If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized
country of the world is , Find the probability that a person
does not live in an industrialized country.

P (Not living in industrialized country )

= 1 − P ( living in industrialized country )
1 4
= 1− =
5 5
Example:
In a study, it was found that 23% of the people surveyed said
that vanilla was their favorite flavor of ice cream. If a person
is selected at random. Find the probability that the person’s
favorite of ice cream is not vanilla.
Solution:
P( not vanilla) = 1 – P(vanilla)
=1 – 0.23 = 0.77 = 77%
 CLASS WORK 1

If it is known that 65% of IT technicians in Hargeisa are male.

Find the probability that IT technicians in Hargeisa are
female?
 CLASS WORK 2
• Suppose that we have a sample space with five equally likely
experimental outcomes: E1,E2, E3, E4, E5. Let
A ={E1, E2},
B ={E3, E4}
C ={E2, E3, E5}
Find the probabilities of complements A, B, and C
 HOMEWORK
1. A statistical experiment has 10 equally likely outcomes that
are denoted by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,and 10.
Let event A ={3, 4, 6, 9} and event B= {1, 2, 5}.
• a. What are the complements of events A and B, respectively,
and their probabilities?
 Empirical Probability
Empirical probability relies on actual experience to
determine the likelihood of outcomes.

f frequency of desired class

P(E) = =
n Sum of all frequencies

REMARK:
❑ or indicate the Union ( + ).[or =  = +]
❑ and indicate intersection ( × ). [and =  = × ]

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 Example :
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A
blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a
frequency distribution and find the following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 f
P (O) =
B 5 n
21
AB 2 =
50
O 21
Total 50

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 b. A person has type A or
Type Frequency type B blood.
A 22
22 5
B 5 P ( A or B ) = +
50 50
AB 2 27
=
O 21 50
Total 50
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 P ( neither A nor O )
B 5 5 2
= +
AB 2 50 50
7
O 21 =
50
Total 50
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 d. A person does not have type AB blood.

Type Frequency
A 22 P ( not AB )
B 5 = 1 − P ( AB )
AB 2
2 48 24
O 21 = 1− = =
50 50 25
Total 50

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 CLASS WORK

1) A hat contains 40 marbles. Of them, 18 are red and 22 are

green. If one marble is randomly selected out of this hat,
what is the probability that this marble is
a. red?
b. green?
2) There are 1265 eligible voters in a town, and 972 of them
are registered to vote. If one eligible voter is selected at
random, what is the probability that this voter is
a. Registered
b. not registered?
 CLASS WORK

• A sample of 500 large companies showed that 120 of them

offer free psychiatric help to their employees who suffer from
psychological problems. If one company is selected at random
from this sample, what is the probability that this company
offers free psychiatric help to its employees who suffer from
psychological problems? What is the probability that this
company does not offer free psychiatric help to its employees
who suffer from psychological problems?
 CLASS WORK

• Consider an experiment of selecting an accountant from

finance department to attend training in a new accounting
package. If there are 4 female and 10 male accountants.
What is the probability that:

a. a female accountant attends the training?

b. a male accountant attends the training?

 CLASS WORK

• Business person notes that out of 10 orders he made to a

supplier only 2 were delivered late. Find the probability that
an order he is making now will be late?
 Subjective probability
Subjective probability uses a probability value based on
an educated guess or estimate, employing opinions and
inexact information.
Examples: weather forecasting, predicting outcomes of
sporting events

A sportswriter may say that there is a 70% probability that the Pirates
will win the pennant next year.
A physician might say that, on the basis of her diagnosis, there is a
30% chance the patient will need an operation.
A seismologist might say there is an 80% probability that an
earthquake will occur in a certain area.

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 Addition Rules for Probability
❑ Two events are Mutually Exclusive if they
cannot occur at the same time (i.e., they have
no outcomes in common)
P(A or B)=P(AUB)= P(A) + P(B)
Mutually Exclusive
P (S)
❑ This means that P(A∩B)= 0.
B A

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❑ Two events are Not Mutually Exclusive
Events, then the probability of event A or B
occurs denoted by P(AUB), is given by

P(A or B)= P(AUB)= P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)

Not mutually exclusive
P(A∩B)
❑ Where P(A∩B) is the P (S)

probability both A A
B
and B occur.

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 EXAMPLE
a single die is rolled and getting the following events:
A ={1, 3, 5}, B= {2, 4, 6}, C ={3, 4, 6}, D= {4, 2, 5,6,}, and event
E ={1, 3}. Find the following probabilities:
a) P(A or B)
b) P(A or C)
c) P(A or D)
d) P(B or C)
e) P(B or D)
f) P(B or E)
g) P(A or E)

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 EXAMPLE

A box contains 3 glazed doughnuts , 4 jelly doughnuts ,

and 5 chocolate doughnuts. If a person selects a doughnut
at random ,find the probability that it is either a glazed
doughnut or a chocolate doughnut.

P(glazed) + P(chocolate) =
 Example :
In company XYZ, there are 8 accountants and 5 IT
technicians two accountants and one IT technician are
females.

Staff Females Males Total

Accountants 2 6 8
IT 1 4 5
Total 3 10 13

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 EXAMPLE

If a staff person is selected ,find the following probabilities

1. P(M or F)
2. P(Acc or F)
3. P(Acc or M)
4. P(Acc or IT)
5. P(IT or M)
6. P(IT or F)
 CLASS WORK
In a statistics class there are 18 juniors and 10 seniors; 6 of
the seniors are females, and 12 of the juniors are males. If a
student is selected at random, find the probability of
selecting the following.
a) A junior or a senior
b) A senior or a female
c) junior or a female
d) A male or a female
 CLASS WORK

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CLASS WORK
 HOME WORK

A statistical experiment has 10 equally likely outcomes that are

denoted by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,
• and 10. Let event A= {3, 4, 6, 9} and event B= {1, 2, 5}.
• a. find the probability of P(A or B)
 The Multiplication Rules and
Conditional Probability

Multiplication Rules
❑ Two events A and B are independent
events if the fact that A occurs does not affect
the probability of B occurring.

P(A and B)=P(A) . P(B) Independent Events

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❑ When the outcome or occurrence of the first event
affects the outcome or occurrence of the second
event in such a way that the probability is changed
,the events are said to be dependent events.

P(A and B)=P(A) . P(B|A) dependent Events

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 EXAMPLE
An urn contains 3 red balls , 2blue balls and 5 white balls
.A ball is selected and its color noted .Then it is replaced(not
replaced) .A second ball is selected and its color noted . Find
the probability of each of these.

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CLASS WORK #1
CLASS WORK #2
 Conditional Probability
❑ Conditional probability is the probability that the
second event B occurs given that the first event A has
occurred.

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 EXAMPLE:
In company XYZ, there are 8 accountants and 5 IT
technicians two accountants and one IT technician are
females.

Staff Females Males Total

Accountants 2 6 8
IT 1 4 5
Total 3 10 13

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 EXAMPLE
If a staff person is selected ,find the following probabilities
1. P(IT and M)
2. P(F/IT)
3. P(Acc/M)
4. P(Acc/F)
5. P(IT/M)
6. P(IT/F)
7. P(M/Acc)
CLASS WORK # 3
 CLASS WORK
In a statistics class there are 18 juniors and 10 seniors; 6 of
the seniors are females, and 12 of the juniors are males. If a
student is selected at random, find the probability of
selecting the following.
• a) A junior or a female
• b) A senior or a female
• c) A junior given that the first student was male
• d) A senior given that the first student was female
 HOMEWORK
In a statistics class there are 10 juniors and 15 seniors; 7 of the
seniors are females, and 7 of the juniors are males. If a student
is selected at random, find the probability of selecting the
following.
• a) A junior or a female
• b) A senior or a female
• c) A junior given that the first student was male
• d) A senior given that the first student was female
• e) A male given that the first student was junior
 HOME WORK
• A university president proposed that all students must take a
course in ethics as a requirement for graduation. Three
hundred faculty members and students from this university
were asked about their opinions on this issue. Table 4.9 gives a
two-way classification of the responses of these faculty
members and students.
• Find
a. The all marginal probabilities
b. The all conditional probabilities
c. The probability that one person selected at random from these
300 persons is a faculty member or is in favor of this proposal.
WARM UP
 WARM UP
If P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.4 , and A,B are mutually exclusive events, find P(A and
B).
a) 0
b) 1
c) 0.12
d) 0.7
If P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.4 , and A,B are independent events, find P(A and B).
a) 0
b) 1
c) 0.12
d) 0.08
 ❑ Factorial is the product of all the positive
numbers from 1 to a number.
n ! = n ( n − 1)( n − 2 )  3  2 1
0! = 1
❑ Permutation is an arrangement of
objects in a specific order. Order matters.
n ! = n ( n − 1)( n − 2 ) ( n − r + 1)
P =
n r
( n − r )! r items

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EXAMPLE 1
EXAMPLE 2
EXAMPLE 3
CLASS WORK
 ❑ Permutation is an arrangement of
objects in a specific order. Order matters.

n ! = n ( n − 1)( n − 2 ) ( n − r + 1)
n Pr =
( n − r )! r items

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 EXAMPLE
• club has 20 members. They are to select three office
holders—president, secretary, and treasurer for next year.
They always select these office holders by drawing 3 names
randomly from the names of all members. The first person
selected becomes the president, the second is the secretary,
and the third one takes over as treasurer. Thus, the order in
which 3 names are selected from the 20 names is important.
Find the total arrangements of 3 names from these 20.
SOLUTION
 CLASS WORK

A television news director wishes to use 3 news stories on an

evening show. One story will be the lead story, one will be the
second story, and the last will be a closing story. If the
director has a total of 8 stories to choose from, how many
possible ways can the program be set up?

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❑ Combination is a grouping of objects. Order
does not matter.

n!
n Cr =
( n − r ) !r !

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 EXAMPLE
How many combinations of 4 objects are there . Taken
2 at a time?

Solution :
This is a combination problem , the answer is

4c2

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EXAMPLE