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Journal of Ship Production and Design, Vol. 37, No. 3, August 2021, pp.

181–195
http://dx.doi.org/10.5957/JSPD.08200020

Influence of Ship Design Complexity on Ship Design Competitiveness

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Ali Ebrahimi,*,† Per O. Brett,*,† Stein O. Erikstad,* and Bjorn E. Asbjørnslett*
*Department of Marine Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

Ulstein International AS, Ulsteinvik, Norway

Complexity is discussed in design literature mainly through its negative and in some
cases positive consequences. This article critically reviews and elaborates the effects
of complexity on competitiveness in ship design, its directionality, and magnitude. The
article introduces a model for the measurement of ship design complexity and ship
design competitiveness based on predefined factors. Archival data of 100 ship design
projects from eight different Norwegian designers are used as case study. Multivariate
data analysis techniques are employed to study the research model. The results
show a significant correlation between complexity and competitiveness in ship de-
sign, where the magnitude and directionality of influence vary among different
complexity factors. Our findings provide a basis for enhancing complexity man-
agement in ship design.

Keywords: ship design; competitiveness; complexity; multivariate data analysis;


archival study

1. Introduction typical and traditional subset of performances. The implications and


the consequences of such strategies in ship design have led to a
Continual technology improvements and market volatility with growing need for a new set of design tools and project-making
its associated uncertainties have a significant impact on and partly skills, a more extensive design process with different disciplines
change ship design customers’ expectations. To be successful in involved, and many iterations in the design development process.
such a market, not only does it require the development of com- It is argued in the relevant engineering design literature that the
petitive products but also the accompanying work processes and the emerged complexity in the product and design development process
organization or firm framing the development of the vessel solution is a situation that ship design and manufacturing companies cannot
are involved. Ulstein and Brett (2015) define ship design competi- escape from or neglect. Instead, it is essential for them to deal with
tiveness in terms of doing the right thing (effectiveness), doing the such complexity appropriately (Asan and Albrecht [2013]; Vogel
right thing right (efficiency), and with the right resources (efficacy) to and Lasch [2015]; Kohr et al. 2017). Extra functional features and
cover product, process, and firm aspects of competitiveness. To new technologies employed in the design solution can add to the
improve their success, ship design companies typically tend to focus product’s competitiveness and strategic advantages. However, such
on the introduction of new technologies, and, in some cases, extra functional increments are normally associated with increased
functional capabilities, which have led to large and complex vessels design/system complexity (Maurer and Lindemann [2007]; Schuh
over the years. To a lesser extent, ship designers have put emphasis on 2016). Kotteaku et al. (1995) argued that product complexity also has
the overall needs of customers. Securing a higher overall performance implications for organizational efficiencies (Kotteaku et al. 1995). He
yield of the ship design solution than peer vessels out in the market is explains that high-complexity products require strong links among
not a common practice among ship designers; they rather focus on a designer, suppliers, and other external bodies to provide the required
initial information. Therefore, commercial complexity increases
Manuscript received by JSPD Committee December 17, 2020; accepted April
according to an increased number of people involved in the process and
20, 2021. an increased level of communication among the individuals. In general,
Corresponding author: Ali Ebrahimi, ali.ebrahimi@cavotec.com, ali.e- such an extra complexity can lead to productivity loss and rises in
brahimi@ntnu.com, a_ebrahimi235@yahoo.com complexity cost in the value chain (Kohr et al. 2017).

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In his study, Shulman concludes that extra prepurchase infor- technological complexity to explain and measure ship design
mation reduces competitiveness by negatively affecting consumers’ complexity.
decisions in regard to product purchase or service enrollment
(Shulman et al. 2015). Extra complexity, because of decentralized
design and manufacturing methods and their influence on com- 2. Research model and applied analytics methods
petitiveness, has also been investigated in other research. The re-
sults suggest that despite extra associated costs and an enlarged 2.1. Research model
number of communications, competitiveness will be enhanced as a
In this section, we present an investigative model to explore the
consequence of improved accessibility to new customers and
research question. Our generic investigative model is presented in
markets (Srai et al. 2016; Broekel 2017). On the contrary, other
Fig. 1. The independent variable ship design complexity contains
studies find lower competitiveness for organizations in situations of

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nine factors extracted from the literature. The dependent variable
high spatial complexity as a result of higher logistics costs and less
ship design competitiveness is measured by three main factors such
control (Azim 2010). Azim (2010) and Remington (2009) sug-
as effectiveness, efficiency, and efficacy, as suggested by Ulstein
gested that unshared goals and objectives in the organization, or
and Brett (2015).
organizational instabilities, reduce the effectiveness of the per-
Our research proposition in the form of the null hypothesis (H0)
formance of the organization or ship design project team. Such a
states that there is no correlation between complexity and competi-
reduction in the effectiveness directly influences its competitive-
tiveness in ship design. It is the task of this research to discredit this
ness. Typically, it is argued in the literature that organizational
hypothesis and prove the relationship between complexity and ship
inefficiencies, lack of response capacity or organizational inertia,
design competitiveness in ship design. An alternative hypothesis in
and even, in the worst cases, business failure might happen due to
this research states that there is a statistically significant and negative
increased product, process, and firm/organizational complexity if it
relationship between complexity in ship design and competitiveness.
is not dealt with appropriately (Pina 2010).
An alternative hypothesis proposes that the greater the intensity of the
There are diverse and most often contradictory arguments regarding
nine complexity constructs in conceptual ship design, the lower the
the influences of complexity on competitiveness in the literature, as
ship design competitiveness. This means that the lower complexity in
explained. Hence, the main objective of this article is to explore,
ship design is positively associated with competitiveness in vessel
investigate, and answer the following research question: How does
conceptual design processes. The null and alternative hypotheses of
ship design complexity influence ship design competitiveness? To
this research are examined based on the collected empirical data and
approach the problem at hand, first, we explore the existence of such
the corresponding analysis of this research work. In the next para-
relationship between these two constructs. Furthermore, the direction
graphs, applied analytics methodology is explained.
and magnitude of the influence are determined. A methodology is
introduced to measure the competitiveness of a ship design solution
based on the systemic design perspectives of design for effectiveness, 2.2. Applied data analytics methods
design for efficiency, and design for efficacy. This article defines ship
design complexity based on a model developed from a literature search We have used both a quantitative and a qualitative data analytics
and uses nine descriptive factors of directional, spatial, decision- method to study and answer the research question. Among the
making, structural, behavioral, contextual, perceptual, temporal, and different research methods suggested by Yin (Yin 2002), the

Fig. 1 Proposed investigative model

182 AUGUST 2021 JOURNAL OF SHIP PRODUCTION AND DESIGN


analysis of archival information is selected for this research. By situations, supply and demand fluctuations, global economics, rules
selecting this strategy, the research has focused on the past and and regulations, and required contingencies are defined (Baker et al.
changes over time using exploratory and explanatory analyses of 2001). The most important design decisions are taken in the
the reality happening. The empirical study is conducted based on conceptual phase, where the final product architecture, its pro-
the collected and collated data of 100 offshore vessel designs as duction process, final cost, and operational performance are the
study cases. The designs are developed by eight major Norwegian result of early design phase decisions (Levin et al. 2007). The
ship designers after 2000 and represent 396 offshore vessels in the developed concept is a design proposal that is detailed enough to
market. Several other design cases and anecdotes from daily design justify whether it is a proper answer to the task and intention of the
practices at Ulstein are also used to develop the arguments and business case at hand and show a high probability of realization and
interpretation of the results in this article. The research analysis is success (Andreasen 2015).
conducted in two main steps of a pilot study and the main study. In Among different engineering design fields, ship design is a

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the pilot study, 25 design solutions were randomly selected from the specific customer-oriented and customer-dominated activity, which
database to test and verify the developed methodology and is positioned in the category of make-to-order or engineer-to-order
the realism of the results on a smaller scale. Furthermore, based on design approaches (Ulstein and Brett 2012). Quite often, ship
the experiences and advancements coming from the pilot study, the designs are customized, adapted, and developed for a specific client
main research analysis was conducted on the remaining 75 designs (van Bruinessen et al. 2013; van Bruinessen 2016) and to be op-
of the dataset. The results were compared with those of the pilot erated over a relatively long period of time, such as 20–40 years
study and prepared for the final interpretation and verification of the (Keane et al. 2017). Generic ship design practice is a transformation
research model. We have used different multivariate data analysis from expected function/s to a physical object. This transition
techniques, including canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and represents the synthesis activity from “what needs to be achieved”
multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis (Hair et al. 2010), to to “how to achieve it” (Amro and Suh 2016). “What needs to be
determine the existence and magnitude of the correlation between achieved” is a ship design solution, and “how to achieve it” defines
complexity and competitiveness of ship design in this study. the design process and its context, the firm or its organization,
MLR in this study is used to study and explain the relationship which needs to be involved to achieve the desired design solution.
between multiple independent or predictor variables (X), nine The idea of a ship as a complex structure is well established in the
complexity factors, and one dependent or criterion variable (Y) of field, where, in 1959, Evans addressed the ship as an extremely
competitiveness in ship design. By applying the method, each of the complex problem (Evans 1959). The complexity of such a product
independent variables will have an effect (magnitude, sign, and among other things relates to its size, number of components, and
statistical significance) on changes in the dependent variable. A internal interactions between the components and the dynamics of
basic formulation is presented in Equation 1. The term b represents the context within which the ship design is developed or will be
the regression coefficients that represent both the type of rela- operated. A variety of stakeholders involved in the ship design
tionship (whether positive or negative) and the strength of it, and project with typically unclear, diverse, and in many cases, contrary
e represents the error of analysis or residuals. The results of this expectations lead to several design choices and alternatives in the
study show how the different nine complexity factors influence conceptual design phase. Therefore, ship design is a complex
competitiveness in ship design. decision-making process of achieving the right balance among
these needs and expectations (Ulstein and Brett 2015). Typically,
Y ¼ b0 þ b1 X1 þ b2 X2 þ … þ bn Xn þ e: (1)
one design parameter in ship design relates to several functional
CCA is a multivariate analysis of correlation which is a logical requirements, where some of the functional requirements are also
extension of the multiple regression analysis. With a canonical interrelated. In such circumstances, relatively small changes in the
analysis, the objective is to simultaneously correlate several metric design parameters are typically associated with very large conse-
dependent variables (x1, x2, …, xn)—nine complexity factors in quences in the resulting performance yield outcomes (Ebrahimi
ship design—and several metric independent variables (y1,y2, … et al. 2015). A new set of skills, tools, software, or technologies in
yn)—three ship design competitiveness factors—whereas multiple addition to the total required time to finalize a new design also
regression involves a single dependent variable (Hair et al. 2010). In influences the level of complexity in the ship design organization
this study, we use the canonical method to validate the robustness of and process.
the three factors of the dependent construct—effectiveness, effi- In the literature, different aspects/factors of complexity with their
ciency, and efficacy—to measure competitiveness in ship design. relating items are addressed to explain the complexity of ship
Furthermore, we examined if there was any relationship between design. These aspects are typically driven from different sources of
ship design complexity and competitiveness. product, process, design organization, and market situation.
Before discussing the result of the analysis, in the next two Structural and behavioral/functional aspects of complexity are
sections of this article, the notions of complexity and competi- discussed most frequently by different ship design practitioners
tiveness in ship design and their constituting factors and relevant (Andrews, 2018; Mistree et al. 1990; Singer et al. 2009;
measurement items are explored. Papanikolaou 2010). In their study, Gaspar et al. (2012) introduced
three more aspects of contextual, temporal, and perceptual com-
plexity in ship design (Gaspar et al. 2012). In the engineering design
3. Complexity in ship design literature, complexity is typically modeled and measured by in-
formation content, such as the Shannon entropy model (Suh 2005;
Engineering design is a process which starts as a response to a Kumari and Kulkarni 2016), or by the structural complexity of the
specific need or an inquiry by a customer (Suh 1990). Furthermore, system or product (Suh 2001; Lindemann et al. 2009). Measuring
the boundary conditions representing competitors, market complexity based on the number of functions and functional

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decomposition of a product (Bashir and Thomson 1999) or a graph- competitiveness of companies using their comparative performance
based model on the complexity design structure matrix are popular in their manufacturing objectives. Using the Delphi method and
methods suggested in the literature (Shafiei-Monfared and Jenab expert opinion, they identify cost, environmental protection, de-
2012). Other more simplistic methods in the literature suggest to livery time, and flexibility as important competitiveness factors.
measure the complexity based on the geographical distribution of They define the general competitiveness measure as a weighted
the design or production facilities (Kohr et al. 2017), number of mean of the scores regarding a plant’s comparative performance of
hours or resources that are used to run the analysis (Liao 2016), and those factors and related items (Ocampo et al. 2017).
the number of internal or external entities involved in the process In the maritime industry, it is argued by Cristina et al. (2009) that
(Qusaibaty et al. 2004). Existing methods and complexity mea- competitiveness is related to the efficiency and effectiveness aspects
surement models use objective data to assess complexity (Efthymiou of the design solution, construction, and operation of the vessel.
et al. 2016). Competitiveness in maritime business is a relative term that can be

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In this study, we use nine descriptive factors of complexity, such measured in terms of price, unit production cost, labor productivity,
as directional, spatial, decision-making, structural, behavioral, fulfillment of customer needs, efficient operation, and higher
contextual, perceptual, temporal, and technological, as the main design performance yield than competitors (Cristina et al. 2009).
factors influencing ship design complexity (Ebrahimi and Brett Papanikolaou et al. (2009) related the competitiveness in the
2021; Ebrahimi and Erikstad 2021). Table 1 includes the definitions maritime industry with a “design-for-X” terminology. They set up a
of the nine factors with their references, relevant items, and general framework for the design-for-X process, which is defined as
measurement mechanism for each item (F1–F9). The table is the optimization of a ship with respect to specific important per-
adapted from the literature review study conducted and presented formance indicators and properties, such as design for safety, design
by Ebrahimi et al. (Ebrahimi and Brett 2021). For each factor, four for efficiency, design for arctic operations, or design for production.
to five items were identified and categorized by an expert group at In this approach, when the vessel is designed for a specific ob-
Ulstein. Items are scored between one and five on a Likert scale jective, the higher the vessel performance on that objective, the
based on real measured values. In this study, a quantile classifi- higher the competitiveness among the different ship design solu-
cation and standard deviation methods were carried out (Ştefan tions compared (Papanikolaou et al. 2009).
2012) to convert the calculated values into a scale score of 1–5. Each
complexity factor is calculated as a sum of its relating items
(Equation 2). The internal consistency of the items reflecting similar 4.2. Measuring competitiveness in ship design
factors is tested and validated by Cronbach’s alpha measure (Hair Ulstein and Brett introduced competitiveness as that which
et al. 2010). An approach to measure the complexity in ship design makes the vessel design solution more distinctive and the way
based on these descriptive factors is discussed and elaborated more performance measure analytics support or drive such a distinctive
in detail by Ebrahimi et al. (2020). vessel capability to enhance design firm brand. The competitiveness
X
n of a ship design solution in their definition is often related directly to
Complexity factor i ¼ Related complexity items: (2) the perceived cost–benefit or simply some higher capacities and, in
j¼1 some cases, the functional capabilities of a specific vessel design
solution (Brett et al. 2018). Over the years, the Ulstein company has
developed its competitiveness measurement model not only from a
4. Ship design competitiveness price or capacity/capability standpoint but also in a broader picture,
comparing how well the design is balanced from effectiveness,
4.1. Definitions and aspects of competitiveness efficiency, and efficacy points of view as competitiveness measures
(Ulstein and Brett 2015; Ebrahimi et al. 2018; Fig. 1).
The evaluation of product competitiveness for companies is one
of the key factors for their success in the market. The Oxford
Dictionary (2016) defined competitiveness as the “Possession of a 4.2.1. Design for effectiveness. The effectiveness of a design
strong desire to be more successful than others.” In the design solution means doing the right things. How well does the developed
domain, competitiveness is often related to notions such as quality, ship design solution fit the real and articulated needs of the ship
cost, technology advancement, innovations involved in the product, owners? The success of the design solution in the market over
and overall performance (Takei 1985; Gong 2017). The competi- previous years is a good indication of the effectiveness of a design
tiveness criteria may significantly vary in different sectors or dif- solution and design process. The number of sales per design/repeat
ferent study situations. Sometimes, the same product might need sales (Szerb and Terjesen 2010; Lei et al. 2020), the longevity of a
different competitiveness criteria depending upon the market state, design in the market (Haryanto and Moutinho 2017; Ocampo et al.
competitors’ activities, marketing strategies, or the appearance of 2017), annual profit per contract (Black and Scholes 1973; Tekce
new products and actors in the segment (Zaeh 2013). This means and Dikbas 2009), reputation and awards (Wernerfelt and Karnani
that the concept of competitiveness is context-dependent and that its 1987; Ambastha and Momaya 2005; Liao 2016), and the annual
measurement should also reflect and include the competitive en- utilization of built vessels (Parker 2016; Shipowners 2017) are the
vironment of the investigated industrial domain. Normally, com- selected items to measure the effectiveness factor in this study. The
petitive products are manufactured to sell for profit in specific total number of sales could be directly counted by the number of
markets where they can generate maximized results. built vessels for each design class. For example, there are 30 vessels
Companies use several methods to develop and measure the in the market with the design class of B11 (Fig. 5), which means the
competitiveness of their products. Ocampo et al. (2017) have in- design is sold 30 times over the years. The higher number of sales
troduced an integrated method for estimating the manufacturing indicates the more competitive design solution in the market.

184 AUGUST 2021 JOURNAL OF SHIP PRODUCTION AND DESIGN


Table 1 The nine complexity factors and relevant items adapted from (Ebrahimi et al. 2020a, 2020b)

Complexity
factors Definition Relevant items Measurement criteria
F1 Directional Unshared goals and goal paths, unclear F1-1 interaction of organization with society Company age in the design development year
complexity meanings, and hidden agendas. F1-2 Design company size Number of employees in the year of contract
Ambiguities raised due to multiple F1-3 major organizational changes in design The number of management changes in the
potential interpretations of goals and company organization, acquisition and mergers
objectives F1-4 nos. of new rules and regulations Count of new rules and regulation over the
coming into place in the year of design years
F2 Spatial Network of infrastructure or customers or F2-1 Owning several design offices in Nos. of design offices in the year of design

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suppliers distributed in different spatial different locations development
regions, required memories for process or F2-2 Diversity of building yards for same Nos. of different yards building similar
spaces or resources design design
F2-3 Diversity of country of build for similar Nos. of different countries building similar
designs design
F2-4 Product density Equipment weight/L*B*D ratio
F3 Decision-making Decision points in the design process and the F3-1 Domain knowledge of designer Nos of recorded designs in the segment
complexity diversity and influential power of different before the new contract
decision makers involved in design F3-2 Customer’s financial power Annual turnover
development| F3-3 Customer size Number of employees
F3-4 Operational knowledge of customer Nos. of vessels in the offshore fleet
F3-5 Potential competitors Nos. of vessels in similar size and function
from other designers
F4 Structural Intrinsic, measurable degree of complexity F 4-1 Vessel size GT (gross tonnage)* installed power
complexity driven by number and variety of elements, F 4-2 Functional variety Number of different offshore support
interrelationships, and dynamics functions installed
F 4-3 Design class size diversity Main dimension variations inside each design
class
F 4-4 Construction complexity CGT (compensated gross tonnage)/GT (gross
tonnage)
F 4-5 Brand choice diversity Nos. of different main equipment brands used
to construct similar design
F5 Behavioral Performance, operations, and reactions to F 5-1 Propulsion system diversity Nos. of different propulsion system types in
complexity stimuli and the interactions between the similar design class (diesel electric, diesel
elements of the system mechanic, hybrid configuration)
F 5-2 Design class functional diversity Nos. of different subtypes registered for
design class
F 5-3 Design speed variation Design speed variation inside each design
class
F 5-4 installed power variation Installed power variation inside each design
class
F 5-5 ice class diversity Different ice class registered for designs
inside design class
F6 Contextual Environment in which the system operates F 6-1 General maritime market situation Total number of NB contracts in the year of
complexity and corresponding uncertainties contract
F 6-2 Segment situation Total number of NB contracts in the same
segment
F 6-3 Designers general market share Nos. of sold designs up to the year of contract
F 6-4 Environmental diversity Beaufort scale of region/ERN (environmental
regulatory number) differences among
designs
F 6-5 Financial status of designer Design company turnover
F7 Perceptual Human perceptions and semantics of the F 7-1 Customer diversity Nos. of different customers
complexity design and the problem. Stakeholder F 7-2 Classification society and rules Nos. of different class societies selected for
preferences, perceptions, and cognitive diversity designs inside one design class
basis F 7-3 Communication simplicity between Local or international customer or both for
designer and customer designs inside one design class
F 7-4 Communication simplicity between Local or international building yard or both
designer and building yard for designs inside one design class
(Continued)

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Table 1 Continued

Complexity
factors Definition Relevant items Measurement criteria
F8 Temporal Historical decisions and events and present of F 8-1 market trends Changes in annual contracting activity
complexity system dimensions over the time, time F 8-2 Shipbuilding price changes New building price index in changes the year
needed for running process of contract
F 8-3 Global business situation Business confidence index in the year of
contract
F 8-4 Global economy situation Global economic growth rate in the year of
contract

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F9 Technological Doing something fundamentally new, where F 9-1 new technologies used Nos. of patents recorded for the design
complexity technology either must be developed from F 9-2 Power plant technological Diesel electric, diesel mechanic, hybrid, or
scratch or embedding new technology in advancement any other advanced type plants
the current product F 9-3 Redundancy level of dynamic DP level (DP1, DP2, DP3)—higher DP
positioning system redundancy is given a higher technological
complexity score

Longevity specifies how a design solution over time is perceived as different particulars. Competitiveness items relating to the effi-
an old/outdated design or can still be an attractive solution for new ciency of a design solution, such as size utilization (Lee et al. 2014),
customers. To quantify the longevity of a design solution, the total energy efficiency, environmental friendliness (Turyakira et al.
duration between the first and last contracts of a specific design 2014; Flak and Głód 2015; Lei et al. 2020), and functional/
class in the market is taken into account. For example, the A01 technical performance of the solution (Szerb and Terjesen 2010),
design class in our database is sold five times over the years between are covered in the developed indexing. Vessel performance yield
2006 and 2013. Hence, the longevity index of the design is cal- indicators follow a similar idea to those of the EEDI index (Efficient
culated as 7. By contrast, although A05 is sold six times, all and Operation 2016), which measures the environmental friend-
contracts were made in the years between 2007 and 2008. liness of vessel designs based on available particulars and capacity
Therefore, this design is scored one in the longevity item. data. Equation 3 depicts the developed power utilization index
The financial performance of different designs is measured by the (PUI) for anchor handling tug supply (AHTS) vessels. The index
annual profit margin of design companies divided by the total shows how efficient vessel-installed power is used to cater for
number of sold designs per year. This item is a prominent measure needed bollard pull, winch capacity, environmental forces, and
to demonstrate that sustainable competitiveness is not achievable vessel speed. Power balancing in the design of AHTSs is a key
only by the number of sales per design or the longevity in the market design task, which is also measured indirectly by this index. Similar
but rather what significantly counts is the created financial margins. indexes also exist for other vessel types based on their core
Reputation and awards for each design are counted based on the functionalities. Size utilization, site operation capability index,
number of global or local awards, such as ship of the year, or global cargo handling capacity, and general services capability index are
commendations for innovation or an environmental-friendly de- examples of such indexing methods.
sign. These accolades can enhance the image of the design com-
panies or improve the perceived attractiveness of a design solution        
Bollard Pull Winch Pull Sea State Speed
in the marketplace. The last item for measuring the effectiveness   
74 143 5; 4 12; 2
of a design solution relates to the utilization of a built vessel over PUI ¼   : (3)
Power
time. The utilization rate is quantified based on the contractual 4177
status of built vessels over the years. Vessels being in operation
since their delivery are classified as 100% utilization, while those
vessels which are laid off within the time period are scored lower
depending on the proportion of their idle period. 4.2.3. Efficacy. The efficacy aspect of competitiveness means
using the right resources to do the right things right. To address the
use of the right resources in the design phase, three items of total
4.2.2. Design for efficiency. The design for efficiency means profit per employee, total number of contracts per employee, and
doing the right things right. To quantify the efficiency of different different vessel segments covered by each employee in the year of
design solutions, Ulstein has developed a set of technical opera- the design contract are selected. The expertise and domain
tional performance indexes, which are used in this analysis (Ulstein knowledge of designers and their efficiency in the design devel-
and Brett 2015; Garcia et al. 2016; Ebrahimi et al. 2018). The opment process (Szerb and Terjesen 2010; Španja et al. 2017;
indexes are developed according to the set of expected function- Stavropoulos et al. 2018) are covered through these items. To use
alities of the vessel design solutions being adjusted as a base for a the right ship design tools in the design process is another item
purpose-built ranking and benchmarking method for offshore covered in this factor.
service vessels. Each individual number is normalized to the av- The summary of the factors and items to quantify ship design
erage of the total fleet of the relevant segments of vessels to en- competitiveness in this study is presented in Table 2. The com-
compass and mitigate the impact of scale differences among petitiveness items are the result of literature review. The item

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Table 2 Three competitiveness factors and relevant items

Factors Explanation Items


F1 Design for Doing the right thing: this aspect reflects the appropriateness F1-1 Number of sales for each design over the years
effectiveness of the design decisions. F1-2 Longevity of the design over the years
How right have been the design decision and up to which F1-3 Annual profit per design contract
extent the design solution has been successful in the F1-4 Reputations /awards
market over the years F1-5 Annual utilization of a built vessel
F2 Design for efficiency Doing the right thing right: this factor reflects how F2-1 PUI
efficient is the developed solution. Different indexes F2-2 Size utilization index
are used for measuring this factor F2-3 Site operation efficiency index

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F2-4 Energy efficiency index
F2-5 Vessel general service index
F3 Design for efficacy Doing the right thing right with right resources: this F3-1 Annual profit/employee
factor presents how well resources are utilized to F3-2 Total number of contract/Employee in different years
develop design solutions over the years F3-3 Different vessel segments covered by employees in different years

categorization for each factor was the result of expert judgment at particulars and the websites of different ship design and ship
Ulstein. Each item is measured based on real data of design so- owning companies are also used in the data collection and analysis.
lutions and design firms. In the succeeding step, real calculated Offshore support vessel designs developed after 2000 from eight
values are converted to scale measures between one and five based major Norwegian ship designers (designers A–H to maintain an-
on the distribution of the real data. Each competitiveness factor is onymity) were selected for this study. Based on the available
the total sum of its relating items. Similar weights are assigned to all statistics, almost 26% (687 vessels of 2622 registered vessels) of the
three factors, and competitiveness is calculated as the sum of the offshore vessels contracted after 2000 with a size larger than 2000
effectiveness, efficiency, and efficacy scores. To avoid scale effect, tonnes deadweight tonnage (DWT) were designed by selected
the factors are normalized before final aggregation. Norwegian designers, including Ulstein. Among the different
vessel types in the sample, 48% were platform supply vessels
(PSVs), 26% were AHTS, and the remaining 26% were offshore
5. Data analysis and research results vessels. The selection of 687 vessels represents 134 different design
classes, which are sold to more than 190 different ship owners. By
This section explains both the exploratory and confirmatory steps reviewing the availability, reliability, and robustness of the data in
of our data analysis. In the exploratory analysis, which is the first the dataset, 34 designs were excluded and the remaining designs
part of this study’s data analysis process, appropriate insights into selected for the rest of the analysis. The remaining dataset contains
the available archival data are developed. In this phase, we 100 different designs representing 492 offshore vessels. This means
establish a structured, comprehensive dataset, where the data have that almost 74% of the design solutions and 76% of the contracted
been presented and manipulated in such a way so as to draw out vessels from the original database are already covered in the new
important necessary insights. In the confirmatory phase, observa- database for the rest of the analysis. This, however, meets the
tions and evidence using traditional statistical tools, such as sig- minimum recommended level of 5:1 observations for statistical
nificance, power of analysis, and confidence level, has been analysis with respect to the number of independent variables (Hair
evaluated. By running the confirmatory analysis, any existence of et al. 2010). Still, the generalization of the results can be ques-
deviation from the developed investigative model in the results of tionable because of the focus of the study on Norwegian designers
the data analysis is examined. Testing hypotheses, performing a and a set of specific vessel types.
regression analysis of the theorization model, conducting an The final dataset contained 492 vessels built based on 100 dif-
analysis of variance, and investigating the level of correlation ferent designs and being sold to 123 different ship owners. Figure 2
between complexity and competitiveness are all part of the presents the number of vessels designed by each designer and the
research’s confirmatory analysis. type of vessels in the final database. As illustrated in the figure, 24%
of the vessels in the final database are designed by Designer A,
5.1. Statistical characteristics of the developed vessel database while Designer B holds 22% of the share. Designers C, D, and E are
in the next places, respectively, by 15%, 14%, and 13% of the
For the selection of the sample data, we have mainly used the designed vessels in the dataset. To conduct the research analysis, the
registered vessel information available in the “World Register of final database was randomly divided into two—small and large
Ships” and the Ulstein vessel segment databases (IHS Fairplay samples. The small sample was used as a test case for quick
2020) (“Ulstein segment vessel data basis,” 2020) as well as en- analysis. The sample included 25 designs (25% of the dataset). The
terprise information webpages, including Proff.no (Flak and Glód, combination of 51 construction vessels, 23 PSVs, and 22 AHTSs
2015), Bloomberg.com (Bloomberg 2020), and (Linkedin.com) represented the 96 vessels and 25 designs of the small sample. The
(Linkedin webpage, 2020). Other relevant supplementary public remaining 75% of the designs were used in the large sample for the
information, available on the Internet, about different vessel main analysis. Quick sampling was used to test the investigation
model and to find any need for modification or changes in the data

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Fig. 2 The number and type of the vessels designed by each designer

gathering methods, add or reduce the items, or update the factors or Furthermore, we have run the normality test based on both the
constructs. Based on the findings and observations from the quick Kolmogorov–Smirnov and the Shapiro–Wilk tests (Ghasemi and
sampling, the final analysis was conducted on the large sample. The Zahediasl 2012). Visual inspection of the data distribution and
large sample of this study included 75 designs representing 396 residual curve was also acceptable as an alternative method for a
offshore vessels of the following types: 104 OCVs, 72 AHTSs, and normality check (Hair et al. 2010). Based on our sample size, if the
222 PSVs. Collected OCV vessel data included different subtypes statistic value (z) exceeds the values 1.96 or 1.96, or if the sig-
of pipe layer vessel (PLV), dive support vessel, heavy lift vessel, as nificance level (p) is less than .050, the hypothesis of normality is
well as inspection, maintenance and repair vessel. rejected (Pituch and Stevens 2016). Table 4 includes an overview of
Different designs were grouped based on their design family in the skewness, kurtosis, statistic values (z), and significance levels
the final database. For example, for Design firm A, we identified 36 (p) for all variables studied based on both the methods. None of the
design classes in the database, as Fig. 3 shows. For example, design factors or constructs exhibits a statistically significant departure
class A 18/1 and A 18/2 or A 26/1, A 26/2, and A 26.3 are combined from normality in terms of statistic value (z), however, they do in
in the final database as presented. Such combination is implied to terms of their significance (p). Considering the significance levels
other design classes with similar design names. Various subtypes (p), the following three factors differ from normality based on the
under each design class are also distinguished by different colors in Shapiro–Wilk test: temporal, technological, and efficacy. A pos-
the figure. sible way to fix the normality issue is to apply a transformation
function (Hair et al. 2010; Pituch and Stevens 2016). Because of the
shape of distributions, the logarithmic function of x’j ¼ log xj was
5.2. Examination of data selected for normalization of the data. The new significant values of
transformed data were also included in the table. Still the p-values
Before running the final CCA and MLR analysis of the com- are slightly lower than .05. Therefore, the normality of these factors
plexity and competitiveness factors, we examined whether the by means of graphical representation was evaluated and accepted. A
following assumptions were satisfied: the independence of the regression standardized residual plot and residual scatter plot of the
observations, the linear relationship between the dependent variable analysis have also confirmed the normality of variables.
and each of the independent variables, data homoscedasticity, Figure 4 shows the visual distribution of the transformed data for
noncollinearity or multicollinearity, and normality of data distri- directional complexity.
butions. A summary of the descriptive statistic functions for both Homoscedasticity refers to the assumption that dependent var-
the dependent and independent variables was preliminarily cal- iables exhibit equal levels of variance across the range of a predictor
culated. These descriptive statistics included mean, median, vari- variable. From a visual inspection of the standardized residuals
ance, standard deviation, and minimum and maximum (Table 3). against the predicted dependent variable in Fig. 5, no major

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Fig. 3 Different design classes and their vessel types developed by Designer B

deviations were perceived on the variance of error along with the important factors (VIF) lower than three and with a tolerance greater
values for the dependent variable. Thus, the data reflected homo- than .1 are the two factors the literature suggest for multicollinearity
scedasticity, and the standard errors were not biased. In such cir- testing (Hair et al. 2010; Yoo et al. 2014). The estimated VIF for the
cumstances, conducting significance tests and confidence intervals independent variables of our study were in the range of 1.116 to
will not lead to incorrect conclusions about the significance of the 1.871, and the tolerances ranged from .535 to .896. Both tolerance
regression coefficients (Pituch and Stevens 2016). and VIF values are inside the thresholds indicated by the literature,
A multicollinearity test was also carried out to study the rela- suggesting that collinearity and multicollinearity do not present any
tionship between more than two independent variables. Variance problems in this research.

Table 3 Descriptive statistics of the data

Range Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation Variance

Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic


Effectivenes 13.0 6.0 19.0 12.2 2.4 5.7
Efficiency 13.5 8.4 21.9 14.5 2.7 7.4
Efficacy 15.4 4.6 20.0 11.9 4.6 20.9
Directional 13.8 6.3 20.0 13.4 2.7 7.3
Spatial 15.0 5.3 20.3 12.7 3.2 9.9
Decision making 13.0 6.9 19.8 12.1 3.0 8.8
Structural 11.8 8.3 20.0 13.1 2.6 7.0
S.Behavioural 13.0 7.0 20.0 9.8 3.2 10.2
Contextual 12.8 7.2 20.0 12.7 2.9 8.5
Perceptual 14.1 5.9 20.0 10.1 4.0 15.8
Temporal 13.8 6.3 20.0 13.1 4.0 15.9
Technological 11.5 8.6 20.1 15.3 2.4 5.9

AUGUST 2021 JOURNAL OF SHIP PRODUCTION AND DESIGN 189


more compatible with the results from the first canonical function
Table 4 Data normality test (root) of the CCA. The reason for less influence of efficacy factor in
our analysis can be explained by the nature of our gathered data. The
Kolmogorov- items constituting efficacy factor in our model reflect human re-
Skewness Kurtosis Smirnov Shapiro-Wilk
source competence–related aspects including annual profit per
Statistic Statistic Statistic Sig. Statistic Sig.
employee, total contract per employee, and the number of vessel
segments per employee. Because study period is limited to Nor-
Dependent variables wegian ship designers and offshore vessel segment, such findings can
Effectiveness .771 1.246 .176 0 .93 .045 be expectable. According to our experience, typically the level of
Efficiency .3 .513 .094 .098 .974 .117 competences among the designers in various design firms in Norway
Efficacy .043 .801 .125 .006 .934 .001
is not that different. Therefore, the influence of this factor seems to be

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Independent Variables
Directional .136 .858 .16 0 .912 .001–(.021)
inconsiderable in our model compared with effectiveness and effi-
Spatial .444 .314 .099 .065 .973 .11 ciency factors. The results can be further validated in future re-
Decision- .684 .131 .091 .200* .981 .316 searches by adding data from non-Norwegian design firms in the
making database and reconducting the analysis.
(DM) Table 7 includes the results from the multivariate regression
Structural .489 .021 .105 .038 .973 .103 analysis of our research model from Fig. 3. The regression coef-
Behavioural 1.221 .728 .083 .200* .972 .092 ficients b and Beta (columns one and three of Table 7, respectively)
Contextual .509 .173 .097 .078 .98 .28 reflect the change in the dependent variable for each unit change in
Perceptual .665 .401 .076 .200* .983 .41 the nine independent factors. Exploring the standardized Beta
Temporal .581 1.216 .177 0 .917 .000–(.03)
coefficient, the independent variable spatial has the largest positive
Technological .288 .507 .302 0 .758 .00–(.0015)
contribution to competitiveness. Furthermore, the temporal and
*This is a lower bound of the true significance. decision-making factors have negative contributions to the de-
pendent variable ship design competitiveness. The results show that
the influence of technological complexity is trivial and nearly
negligible. These results and findings are discussed in the next
5.3. Canonical correlation analysis paragraphs of this article.

The result of the CCA is presented in Table 5. Three canonical


roots were identified within the analysis. Based on the results from
6. Findings and interpretation of the results
the first root, the full model is statistically significant, with a Wilks’s
λ of .279 and p < .001. The defined limit of .05 for p-value (level of The results of this study reject the null hypothesis and confirm
significance) in this analysis is the probability of rejecting the null that there is a strong relationship between ship design complexity
hypothesis when it is true (Pituch and Stevens 2016). Based on the and ship design competitiveness. The findings from the MLR
result of analysis, we can reject the null hypothesis that states “there analysis suggest that the presence of ship design complexity can
is no relationship between the independent and dependent variable explain 34% of the variability in ship design competitiveness. The
sets” (i.e., reject H0) and conclude that there is a strong relationship final structural model and the influence of each complexity factor on
between complexity and competitiveness. The magnitude of the ship design competitiveness are presented in Fig. 6. Four of the
relationship for root one is measured by squared canonical corre- factors—Spatial, structural, perceptual and technological—have a
lation as 52%. positive βeta value, indicating that one unit change in the factor will
produce a positive change in the competitiveness of magnitude βeta.
5.4. MLR analysis Alternatively, the factors directional, decision-making, behavioral,
contextual, and temporal complexity have a negative βeta value.
The model summary of the confirmatory analysis for both the These findings do not entirely comply with our alternative hy-
large sample and the convenience sampling study is presented in pothesis, which suggested that all nine factors have a negative
Table 5. The power of analysis (Sig. F) complies significantly with influence on ship design competitiveness.
our findings from the canonical correlation. The result shows a Among the factors with a positive influence on competitiveness,
strong relationship between ship design complexity and ship design spatial complexity is the one with the highest contribution. This
competitiveness (Table 6). In the small sample (due to the sample means that designers who have had different design offices
size), the Sig. F value is higher than .05, whereas in the large sample, worldwide in the period of study have shown a higher level of
the issue is resolved. The coefficient of determination R2 is cal- competitiveness in the market. The experiences from the Ulstein
culated to be .340 and .550 for both samples, respectively. Our offices in China, Singapore, Brazil, Turkey, and Poland well
canonical study explains more of the competitiveness by com- comply with such observations. Employing local people to better
plexity in root1 with 51% squared R, where efficacy has only a access the local market, handle the cultural differences with cus-
trivial influence on the synthetic canonical criterion. In our MLR tomers, and make better relationships with authorities and local
model, the produced competitiveness index is the total sum of shipyards to build the designs in different countries has had a
effectiveness, efficiency, and efficacy with equal weights. If we positive impact on ship design competitiveness over the years.
remove efficacy from our competitiveness index in the MLR model Although extra costs and complexities have been associated with
and re-execute the analysis, the results are improved considerably, such enlarging of the design environment for Ulstein, they have
resulting in an R-square of .490 and adjusted R is .420, which are improved our international sales. Almost 70% of Ulstein design

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Fig. 4 Visual normality test of directional complexity factor

Fig. 5 Homoscedasticity–heteroscedasticity test

AUGUST 2021 JOURNAL OF SHIP PRODUCTION AND DESIGN 191


Table 5 Result of canonical analysis Among the nine defined complexity factors, technological
complexity surprisingly has the lowest statistical significance and
Canon cor. Sq. Cor Wilk’s statistic Sig. magnitude in regard to a positive influence on competitiveness. A
Root 1 .719 .51,662 .279 .000
similar level of applied technologies among almost 80% of the
Root 2 .558 .31,136 .577 .002 vessels in the sample or the high cost of employing advanced
Root 3 .403 .16,273 .837 .101 technologies in the maritime industry can be the reasons for such a
finding.
Not surprisingly, temporal complexity and decision-making
complexity are the factors with the highest negative influences
sales in the years between 2005 and 2015 has happened through
on ship design competitiveness. When the market faces economic
offices in other countries, and vessels were built-in third-party yard
crisis and extreme volatilities, such as what happened in 2008 and
than Ulstein yard in Norway. Similar situation is observed for other

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its following economic downturn from 2009, it defaults on making
Norwegian design firms with distributed design offices. Moreover,
profits, and serving debt is deteriorated quickly. Consequently, the
the capability of ship design companies to collaborate with different
performance yield of vessel design firms has seen their accounts’
shipyards worldwide is also a great advantage, positively influ-
top-lines and bottom-lines drastically shrink. This situation may
encing the competitiveness of the design solutions.
Together with spatial complexity, the factor structural com- lead to bankruptcies or a lack of adequate financial funding/
support—unavailable lending opportunities and drastically depre-
plexity also has a positive contribution to ship design competi-
ciated competitiveness (Brett et al. 2018). Alternatively, as a con-
tiveness. This finding is supported by some researchers but in
sequence of a high level of decision-making complexity, it has been
contradiction with the arguments of others (Maurer and Lindemann
experienced at Ulstein entering into, e.g., the cruise exploration vessel
2007; Lindemann et al. 2009; ElMaraghy et al. 2012; Maurer 2017).
segment after almost 16 years of focused design and production
Our experiences at Ulstein also comply with this finding. It has been
activity of offshore vessels, has been much more challenging and
proven over time that Norwegian designers are not that competitive
resource demanding than what was expected. Although some ex-
in the design small PSVs (smaller than 2000 tonnes DWT) or
periences in the design of marine platforms and related main systems
AHTSs (less than 150 tonnes bollard pull) as the market is pop-
were transferred to the new segment, massive differences were also
ulated with low-cost Asian designers. The financial results and the
level of market share of different design firms show European ship realized. Wider possible solution spaces in terms of luxury level,
space arrangement issues in hotel function, different rule and reg-
design and construction firms; most specifically, the design firms of
ulation regimes, a segment more sensitive to stability criteria and
this study are more competitive in the global market in the design/
construction of complex products such as complex offshore vessels lightweight, and a greater necessity for better seakeeping perfor-
mance and comfort criteria were some of the main experienced
or cruise ships. Despite there being no competitive advantage for
discrepancies. In addition to these technical and operational differ-
Ulstein to enter into the design/construction of simplistic general
ences, dealing with more professional customers and entering into
cargo vessel types where East Asian firms are more competitive to
new market domains with their particular characteristics were some
produce less expensive product, the main competitive advantage of
of the commercial issues. Lack of enough know-how and experiences
Norwegian shipyards over the years has been the construction of
in these new domains enforced Ulstein to use at least double the time
more complex, equipment/outfitting intensive service vessels, and
and resources to develop the first cruise exploration concepts
Asian yards are more competitive with steel-intensive cargo vessels.
compared to the design of similar-sized offshore vessels. The same
Perceptual complexity and technological complexity are the two
issues happened in the vessel cost/price and construction time es-
remaining complexity factors with a positive influence on ship
design competitiveness. The results show that design companies timations in early design phases, which eventually led to lower
margins and even losses in some cases because of such increased
that have been able to handle the communication issue of dealing
decision-making complexity.
with a wide range of customers have achieved higher ship design
Behavioral and directional complexity factors have negative
competitiveness. Being able to deal with different classes of so-
consequences on competitiveness, with a beta value of .179. Our
cieties and to build in both local and international yards has helped
experiences at Ulstein show that to sell more of an existing design
the designers to enhance their competitiveness.
to a new customer typically requires making changes in vessel
design speed, ice-class notation, vessel operability, hotel size/
luxury level, mission equipment, and/or even bow and aft
shapes. These modifications are most often associated with extra
Table 6 MLR results summary for both samples
analysis and even, in many cases, new model tests in the early
design phase to compensate for emerging behavioral uncertainty/
Model summary*
complexity. Such extra design and construction costs might be the
Change statistics reason for lower competitiveness compared with more standardized
design classes. Moreover, the findings of this analysis also support
Model N R R Square Adjusted R square Sig. F change the literature addressing the issue of directional complexity. The
results depict those companies with more stable management over
Large sample 75 .583† .34 .249 .001
Small sample 25 .742† .55 .281 .107
time, less major changes in organization, and clearer goals and
objectives as well as appropriate integration in the target society
*Dependent variable: competitiveness have been more competitive by selling more designs and making
† more profit over the time period. Moreover, the results indicate that
Predictors: (constant), technological, S. behavioral, DM, temporal, direc-
tional, spatial, contextual, structural, perceptual more competitive design classes were developed when the design

192 AUGUST 2021 JOURNAL OF SHIP PRODUCTION AND DESIGN


Table 7 Results from the regression model by confirmatory analysis

Unstandardized soefficients Standardized coefficients

Indipendent factors B Std. error Beta t Sig.


(Constant) 53.718 11.834 4.539 .000
Directional .543 .338 .179 1.608 .113
Spatial .735 .302 .282 2.434 .018
Decision making .770 .313 .278 2.459 .017
Structural .454 .370 .147 1.229 .224
S.Behavioural .459 .354 .179 1.297 .199

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Contextual .440 .336 .157 1.308 .195
Perceptual .455 .273 .221 1.667 .100
Temporal .678 .219 .329 3.091 .003
Technological .036 .398 .011 .090 .928

organizations have been smaller in size and more flexible in their no universal consensus on the influence of ship design complexity
operations. The last factor with a negative influence is contextual on competitiveness and that different researchers have addressed
complexity. Critical financial situations or the low turnover of a design the issue from different perspectives. Very few have taken a broader
company, in addition to inferior market share and reputation in the approach to the issue at hand. In this article, we have approached
segment compared with competitors, can negatively influence com- complexity in ship design according to nine factors of complexity,
petitiveness. Ship design competitiveness is also negatively influenced such as directional, spatial, decision-making, structural, behavioral,
when the total number of worldwide new-building contracts is low. contextual, perceptual, temporal, and technological. A compre-
hensive method to quantify ship design complexity based on items
constituting each factor is applied in this research. Ship design
7. Summary and conclusion competitiveness was explored and measured by means of the
following three design perspectives: design for effectiveness, de-
In this article, we have critically reviewed and elaborated in both sign for efficiency, and design for efficacy and their constituting
quantitative and qualitative ways as to whether there is any rela- items.
tionship between ship design complexity and ship design com- In this article, we have collected archival data of 492 vessels built
petitiveness. After reviewing the literature, we propose that there is based on 100 different design classes and being sold to 123 different

Fig. 6 Investigative model with results (β-values)

AUGUST 2021 JOURNAL OF SHIP PRODUCTION AND DESIGN 193


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