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Influence of Ship Design Complexity On Ship Design Competitiveness
Influence of Ship Design Complexity On Ship Design Competitiveness
181–195
http://dx.doi.org/10.5957/JSPD.08200020
Complexity is discussed in design literature mainly through its negative and in some
cases positive consequences. This article critically reviews and elaborates the effects
of complexity on competitiveness in ship design, its directionality, and magnitude. The
article introduces a model for the measurement of ship design complexity and ship
design competitiveness based on predefined factors. Archival data of 100 ship design
projects from eight different Norwegian designers are used as case study. Multivariate
data analysis techniques are employed to study the research model. The results
show a significant correlation between complexity and competitiveness in ship de-
sign, where the magnitude and directionality of influence vary among different
complexity factors. Our findings provide a basis for enhancing complexity man-
agement in ship design.
Complexity
factors Definition Relevant items Measurement criteria
F1 Directional Unshared goals and goal paths, unclear F1-1 interaction of organization with society Company age in the design development year
complexity meanings, and hidden agendas. F1-2 Design company size Number of employees in the year of contract
Ambiguities raised due to multiple F1-3 major organizational changes in design The number of management changes in the
potential interpretations of goals and company organization, acquisition and mergers
objectives F1-4 nos. of new rules and regulations Count of new rules and regulation over the
coming into place in the year of design years
F2 Spatial Network of infrastructure or customers or F2-1 Owning several design offices in Nos. of design offices in the year of design
Complexity
factors Definition Relevant items Measurement criteria
F8 Temporal Historical decisions and events and present of F 8-1 market trends Changes in annual contracting activity
complexity system dimensions over the time, time F 8-2 Shipbuilding price changes New building price index in changes the year
needed for running process of contract
F 8-3 Global business situation Business confidence index in the year of
contract
F 8-4 Global economy situation Global economic growth rate in the year of
contract
Longevity specifies how a design solution over time is perceived as different particulars. Competitiveness items relating to the effi-
an old/outdated design or can still be an attractive solution for new ciency of a design solution, such as size utilization (Lee et al. 2014),
customers. To quantify the longevity of a design solution, the total energy efficiency, environmental friendliness (Turyakira et al.
duration between the first and last contracts of a specific design 2014; Flak and Głód 2015; Lei et al. 2020), and functional/
class in the market is taken into account. For example, the A01 technical performance of the solution (Szerb and Terjesen 2010),
design class in our database is sold five times over the years between are covered in the developed indexing. Vessel performance yield
2006 and 2013. Hence, the longevity index of the design is cal- indicators follow a similar idea to those of the EEDI index (Efficient
culated as 7. By contrast, although A05 is sold six times, all and Operation 2016), which measures the environmental friend-
contracts were made in the years between 2007 and 2008. liness of vessel designs based on available particulars and capacity
Therefore, this design is scored one in the longevity item. data. Equation 3 depicts the developed power utilization index
The financial performance of different designs is measured by the (PUI) for anchor handling tug supply (AHTS) vessels. The index
annual profit margin of design companies divided by the total shows how efficient vessel-installed power is used to cater for
number of sold designs per year. This item is a prominent measure needed bollard pull, winch capacity, environmental forces, and
to demonstrate that sustainable competitiveness is not achievable vessel speed. Power balancing in the design of AHTSs is a key
only by the number of sales per design or the longevity in the market design task, which is also measured indirectly by this index. Similar
but rather what significantly counts is the created financial margins. indexes also exist for other vessel types based on their core
Reputation and awards for each design are counted based on the functionalities. Size utilization, site operation capability index,
number of global or local awards, such as ship of the year, or global cargo handling capacity, and general services capability index are
commendations for innovation or an environmental-friendly de- examples of such indexing methods.
sign. These accolades can enhance the image of the design com-
panies or improve the perceived attractiveness of a design solution
Bollard Pull Winch Pull Sea State Speed
in the marketplace. The last item for measuring the effectiveness
74 143 5; 4 12; 2
of a design solution relates to the utilization of a built vessel over PUI ¼ : (3)
Power
time. The utilization rate is quantified based on the contractual 4177
status of built vessels over the years. Vessels being in operation
since their delivery are classified as 100% utilization, while those
vessels which are laid off within the time period are scored lower
depending on the proportion of their idle period. 4.2.3. Efficacy. The efficacy aspect of competitiveness means
using the right resources to do the right things right. To address the
use of the right resources in the design phase, three items of total
4.2.2. Design for efficiency. The design for efficiency means profit per employee, total number of contracts per employee, and
doing the right things right. To quantify the efficiency of different different vessel segments covered by each employee in the year of
design solutions, Ulstein has developed a set of technical opera- the design contract are selected. The expertise and domain
tional performance indexes, which are used in this analysis (Ulstein knowledge of designers and their efficiency in the design devel-
and Brett 2015; Garcia et al. 2016; Ebrahimi et al. 2018). The opment process (Szerb and Terjesen 2010; Španja et al. 2017;
indexes are developed according to the set of expected function- Stavropoulos et al. 2018) are covered through these items. To use
alities of the vessel design solutions being adjusted as a base for a the right ship design tools in the design process is another item
purpose-built ranking and benchmarking method for offshore covered in this factor.
service vessels. Each individual number is normalized to the av- The summary of the factors and items to quantify ship design
erage of the total fleet of the relevant segments of vessels to en- competitiveness in this study is presented in Table 2. The com-
compass and mitigate the impact of scale differences among petitiveness items are the result of literature review. The item
categorization for each factor was the result of expert judgment at particulars and the websites of different ship design and ship
Ulstein. Each item is measured based on real data of design so- owning companies are also used in the data collection and analysis.
lutions and design firms. In the succeeding step, real calculated Offshore support vessel designs developed after 2000 from eight
values are converted to scale measures between one and five based major Norwegian ship designers (designers A–H to maintain an-
on the distribution of the real data. Each competitiveness factor is onymity) were selected for this study. Based on the available
the total sum of its relating items. Similar weights are assigned to all statistics, almost 26% (687 vessels of 2622 registered vessels) of the
three factors, and competitiveness is calculated as the sum of the offshore vessels contracted after 2000 with a size larger than 2000
effectiveness, efficiency, and efficacy scores. To avoid scale effect, tonnes deadweight tonnage (DWT) were designed by selected
the factors are normalized before final aggregation. Norwegian designers, including Ulstein. Among the different
vessel types in the sample, 48% were platform supply vessels
(PSVs), 26% were AHTS, and the remaining 26% were offshore
5. Data analysis and research results vessels. The selection of 687 vessels represents 134 different design
classes, which are sold to more than 190 different ship owners. By
This section explains both the exploratory and confirmatory steps reviewing the availability, reliability, and robustness of the data in
of our data analysis. In the exploratory analysis, which is the first the dataset, 34 designs were excluded and the remaining designs
part of this study’s data analysis process, appropriate insights into selected for the rest of the analysis. The remaining dataset contains
the available archival data are developed. In this phase, we 100 different designs representing 492 offshore vessels. This means
establish a structured, comprehensive dataset, where the data have that almost 74% of the design solutions and 76% of the contracted
been presented and manipulated in such a way so as to draw out vessels from the original database are already covered in the new
important necessary insights. In the confirmatory phase, observa- database for the rest of the analysis. This, however, meets the
tions and evidence using traditional statistical tools, such as sig- minimum recommended level of 5:1 observations for statistical
nificance, power of analysis, and confidence level, has been analysis with respect to the number of independent variables (Hair
evaluated. By running the confirmatory analysis, any existence of et al. 2010). Still, the generalization of the results can be ques-
deviation from the developed investigative model in the results of tionable because of the focus of the study on Norwegian designers
the data analysis is examined. Testing hypotheses, performing a and a set of specific vessel types.
regression analysis of the theorization model, conducting an The final dataset contained 492 vessels built based on 100 dif-
analysis of variance, and investigating the level of correlation ferent designs and being sold to 123 different ship owners. Figure 2
between complexity and competitiveness are all part of the presents the number of vessels designed by each designer and the
research’s confirmatory analysis. type of vessels in the final database. As illustrated in the figure, 24%
of the vessels in the final database are designed by Designer A,
5.1. Statistical characteristics of the developed vessel database while Designer B holds 22% of the share. Designers C, D, and E are
in the next places, respectively, by 15%, 14%, and 13% of the
For the selection of the sample data, we have mainly used the designed vessels in the dataset. To conduct the research analysis, the
registered vessel information available in the “World Register of final database was randomly divided into two—small and large
Ships” and the Ulstein vessel segment databases (IHS Fairplay samples. The small sample was used as a test case for quick
2020) (“Ulstein segment vessel data basis,” 2020) as well as en- analysis. The sample included 25 designs (25% of the dataset). The
terprise information webpages, including Proff.no (Flak and Glód, combination of 51 construction vessels, 23 PSVs, and 22 AHTSs
2015), Bloomberg.com (Bloomberg 2020), and (Linkedin.com) represented the 96 vessels and 25 designs of the small sample. The
(Linkedin webpage, 2020). Other relevant supplementary public remaining 75% of the designs were used in the large sample for the
information, available on the Internet, about different vessel main analysis. Quick sampling was used to test the investigation
model and to find any need for modification or changes in the data
gathering methods, add or reduce the items, or update the factors or Furthermore, we have run the normality test based on both the
constructs. Based on the findings and observations from the quick Kolmogorov–Smirnov and the Shapiro–Wilk tests (Ghasemi and
sampling, the final analysis was conducted on the large sample. The Zahediasl 2012). Visual inspection of the data distribution and
large sample of this study included 75 designs representing 396 residual curve was also acceptable as an alternative method for a
offshore vessels of the following types: 104 OCVs, 72 AHTSs, and normality check (Hair et al. 2010). Based on our sample size, if the
222 PSVs. Collected OCV vessel data included different subtypes statistic value (z) exceeds the values 1.96 or 1.96, or if the sig-
of pipe layer vessel (PLV), dive support vessel, heavy lift vessel, as nificance level (p) is less than .050, the hypothesis of normality is
well as inspection, maintenance and repair vessel. rejected (Pituch and Stevens 2016). Table 4 includes an overview of
Different designs were grouped based on their design family in the skewness, kurtosis, statistic values (z), and significance levels
the final database. For example, for Design firm A, we identified 36 (p) for all variables studied based on both the methods. None of the
design classes in the database, as Fig. 3 shows. For example, design factors or constructs exhibits a statistically significant departure
class A 18/1 and A 18/2 or A 26/1, A 26/2, and A 26.3 are combined from normality in terms of statistic value (z), however, they do in
in the final database as presented. Such combination is implied to terms of their significance (p). Considering the significance levels
other design classes with similar design names. Various subtypes (p), the following three factors differ from normality based on the
under each design class are also distinguished by different colors in Shapiro–Wilk test: temporal, technological, and efficacy. A pos-
the figure. sible way to fix the normality issue is to apply a transformation
function (Hair et al. 2010; Pituch and Stevens 2016). Because of the
shape of distributions, the logarithmic function of x’j ¼ log xj was
5.2. Examination of data selected for normalization of the data. The new significant values of
transformed data were also included in the table. Still the p-values
Before running the final CCA and MLR analysis of the com- are slightly lower than .05. Therefore, the normality of these factors
plexity and competitiveness factors, we examined whether the by means of graphical representation was evaluated and accepted. A
following assumptions were satisfied: the independence of the regression standardized residual plot and residual scatter plot of the
observations, the linear relationship between the dependent variable analysis have also confirmed the normality of variables.
and each of the independent variables, data homoscedasticity, Figure 4 shows the visual distribution of the transformed data for
noncollinearity or multicollinearity, and normality of data distri- directional complexity.
butions. A summary of the descriptive statistic functions for both Homoscedasticity refers to the assumption that dependent var-
the dependent and independent variables was preliminarily cal- iables exhibit equal levels of variance across the range of a predictor
culated. These descriptive statistics included mean, median, vari- variable. From a visual inspection of the standardized residuals
ance, standard deviation, and minimum and maximum (Table 3). against the predicted dependent variable in Fig. 5, no major
deviations were perceived on the variance of error along with the important factors (VIF) lower than three and with a tolerance greater
values for the dependent variable. Thus, the data reflected homo- than .1 are the two factors the literature suggest for multicollinearity
scedasticity, and the standard errors were not biased. In such cir- testing (Hair et al. 2010; Yoo et al. 2014). The estimated VIF for the
cumstances, conducting significance tests and confidence intervals independent variables of our study were in the range of 1.116 to
will not lead to incorrect conclusions about the significance of the 1.871, and the tolerances ranged from .535 to .896. Both tolerance
regression coefficients (Pituch and Stevens 2016). and VIF values are inside the thresholds indicated by the literature,
A multicollinearity test was also carried out to study the rela- suggesting that collinearity and multicollinearity do not present any
tionship between more than two independent variables. Variance problems in this research.
organizations have been smaller in size and more flexible in their no universal consensus on the influence of ship design complexity
operations. The last factor with a negative influence is contextual on competitiveness and that different researchers have addressed
complexity. Critical financial situations or the low turnover of a design the issue from different perspectives. Very few have taken a broader
company, in addition to inferior market share and reputation in the approach to the issue at hand. In this article, we have approached
segment compared with competitors, can negatively influence com- complexity in ship design according to nine factors of complexity,
petitiveness. Ship design competitiveness is also negatively influenced such as directional, spatial, decision-making, structural, behavioral,
when the total number of worldwide new-building contracts is low. contextual, perceptual, temporal, and technological. A compre-
hensive method to quantify ship design complexity based on items
constituting each factor is applied in this research. Ship design
7. Summary and conclusion competitiveness was explored and measured by means of the
following three design perspectives: design for effectiveness, de-
In this article, we have critically reviewed and elaborated in both sign for efficiency, and design for efficacy and their constituting
quantitative and qualitative ways as to whether there is any rela- items.
tionship between ship design complexity and ship design com- In this article, we have collected archival data of 492 vessels built
petitiveness. After reviewing the literature, we propose that there is based on 100 different design classes and being sold to 123 different