challenges faced by pakistan post afghan wa

https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1482636/FULLTEXT01.pdf

Pakistan's Critical Challenge in the Afghanistan War

This paragraph introduces the main topic of the text, highlighting how Pakistan presents a significant
challenge to the United States in fighting the war in Afghanistan. It acknowledges the progress made
by US, ISAF, and Afghan forces, but emphasizes that achieving a stable transition in Afghanistan
beyond 2014 relies heavily on major changes in Pakistan's de facto strategy and addressing internal
problems leading to growing instability and violence.

Reports on Pakistan's Challenges

This section mentions two reports that raise questions about Pakistan's ability to make the necessary
changes. The first report, "The Problem of Pakistan," offers an overview of developments in Pakistan
from the Afghan theater's perspective, while the second, "Pakistan: Violence vs. Stability," provides a
net assessment of violence patterns in Pakistan, going beyond the conflict in FATA and highlighting
various internal threats contributing to instability.

Implications for Pakistan's Future

The paragraph discusses the broader implications of Pakistan's internal violence and instability,
indicating a "perfect storm" of threats, including rising extremism, a failing economy, chronic
underdevelopment, and an intensifying war. It emphasizes how these challenges have serious
implications for Pakistan's future, regional stability, and core US interests. Pakistan's centrality in
global terrorism is acknowledged, and its cooperation with the US in certain aspects is mentioned
alongside the growing domestic threat of terrorism and extremism.

Shortcomings in Governance and Development

This section highlights Pakistan's governance failures and lack of development, which contribute to
rising violence and separatist movements. The text emphasizes that despite the existence of a
vigorous civil society and talented secular elite, there is a significant gap between Pakistan's official
rhetoric and reality. The resistance from entrenched organizational interests, both political and
security elites, as well as religious radicals, hampers effective reforms.

The Need for Comprehensive Stabilization Strategy

The paragraph stresses the need for a better planned and managed stabilization strategy that
addresses all the various causes of extremism and violence in Pakistan. It highlights the importance
of implementing real, large-scale reforms to bring security and stability to the people. Selective
attempts to address grievances alone cannot fundamentally alter or reverse Pakistan's problems.

Prioritizing Internal Needs Over External Threats

The text emphasizes the need for Pakistan to prioritize its internal needs over strategic competition
with India. It notes that the current focus on external threats is at the expense of the welfare and
future of its people. To move forward, Pakistan's leaders must invest in the welfare of their citizens
and address their core grievances.

The Challenges of Internal Violence

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Convergence of Conflicts and Militancy

This section highlights the challenges Pakistan faces due to the convergence of various localized
conflicts that were once separate from each other. The growth of militancy in the Pakistani-Afghan
border area interacts with threats in other regions of Pakistan, including the Punjabi, Sindhi, and
Balouchi interiors. The instability is multi-faceted, with no single cause or center of gravity.

Influence of War in Afghanistan

The war in Afghanistan has spilled over into Pakistan, with the movement of al-Qaeda, Taliban,
Haqqani network, and Hekmatyar's forces into Pakistani territory. Additionally, Pakistan is dealing
with separatist pressures in Baluchistan and Sindh and facing neo-Salafi threats with ties to al-Qaeda.
Insurgency continues in the FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions, and while some progress has
been made in counterinsurgency efforts, the root causes of militancy remain unaddressed.

Diverse Array of Militant Actors

Various militant groups, including al-Qaeda, operate in the tribal areas and support different
agendas, including global and regional jihads, as well as anti-state and sectarian objectives. These
groups have disrupted traditional tribal governance and stability, and selective counterinsurgency
approaches by the Pakistani military have complicated efforts to restore order. Some elements within
Pakistan's governance and security forces are supporting groups hostile to the US and Afghanistan,
causing strain in Pakistan-US relations and threatening future US aid.

Violence and Tensions in the Rest of Pakistan

The conflicts in Pakistan are not limited to the tribal areas. South Punjab has become a historical
hotbed of militancy, with groups splintering and migrating to the tribal areas, contributing to
terrorist violence in urban centers. Karachi, an economic hub, is facing ethno-sectarian violence that
could escalate into communal conflict. Baluchistan is experiencing a fifth separatist insurgency,
influenced by regional geopolitics and driven by poverty, underdevelopment, and alienation from
mainstream Pakistan.

Overall, Pakistan's internal violence and instability are fueled by a complex web of factors, including
militancy spillover from Afghanistan, separatist movements, and ethno-sectarian tensions.
Addressing these challenges requires comprehensive and well-planned stabilization strategies that
tackle the root causes of extremism and violence within the country.
 The Challenges of External Relations
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Focus on India and Influence in Afghanistan

One of the significant challenges to Pakistan's external relations is its focus on countering the
perceived threat from India. This focus influences almost every aspect of Pakistan's external
engagements. In Afghanistan, this competition for influence with India plays out through Pakistan's
ties with the Afghan Taliban, Haqqani network, and other groups. Pakistan aims to ensure its
influence over the future of Afghanistan and prevent any potential support for Pashtun
independence movements.

Divergent Perceptions of National Interest

Pakistan's leaders and officials have a fundamentally different perception of their national interest
compared to the US focus on Afghan security and stability. Despite being labeled as allies and
strategic partners, the reality behind the rhetoric has resulted in constant tensions between Pakistan
and the US. Cross-border violence into Afghanistan has been a major point of contention, leading to
deteriorating relations between the two countries.

Indo-Pakistani Border Tensions

The border between India and Pakistan remains one of the most threatening areas globally,
especially given the deployment of long-range missiles and nuclear weapons on both sides. Cross-
border violence can escalate into large-scale war, and the presence of Kashmiri militant groups
further complicates the situation. Splintering militant groups, as seen in south Punjab, and the risk of
militant proxies operating autonomously add to the instability.

Diversion of Resources and Security Forces

Pakistan's concern with countering India diverts significant resources and security forces away from
addressing more critical internal problems and threats. The current policies contribute to an arms
race with India, tensions with Afghanistan and the US, and waste vital resources on security concerns.
As a result, Pakistan's focus on self-defense and the perceived threat from India can be
counterproductive and even detrimental to the state and the well-being of its people.

Instability as a Self-Inflicted Wound

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Underlying Causes of Instability

Pakistan's internal instability is driven by a combination of factors, including ideology, religion,

politics, governance, economics, and demographics. Weak and underdeveloped governance
institutions, coupled with the constant fear of military coups, incentivize the pursuit of personal gains
rather than effective representation.

Economic Mismanagement and Underdevelopment

Chronic economic mismanagement and underdevelopment have led to deep inequalities and
alienation among significant portions of the population. The lack of investment in human capital
development, such as education and healthcare, further exacerbates the problem. Pakistan's
population growth, particularly among the youth, poses additional challenges to providing essential
social services.

Dysfunctional Civilian Government

The civilian government often faces internal conflicts and self-serving politics, exploiting ethno-
sectarian divisions for political gain. Organizational resistance to reforms impedes progress, and
corruption, nepotism, and favoritism further erode public trust in the government.

Entrenched Patronage Networks and Corruption

Power brokers and entrenched feudal interests prioritize their own benefits over the welfare of the
population, leading to widespread corruption and distortions in tax collections. The civil-military
imbalance also contributes to the prioritization of elite interests.

Efforts at Reform

Although some attempts at reform have been made, they have often fallen short due to political
opportunism and superficial approaches. Money allocated for critical sectors like education and
employment has not always resulted in meaningful outcomes, as corruption and inefficiencies in the
bureaucratic system hinder progress.

Importance of Meaningful Metrics

The focus on quantity rather than quality in resource allocation has limited the impact of reform
efforts. Developing accurate metrics to measure progress will be essential, shifting the emphasis
towards outcomes and ensuring that resources are effectively utilized. For example, building schools
in tribal regions would have limited impact without capable teachers, relevant curriculums, and
connections to the labor market.

Overall, Pakistan's internal challenges, if not adequately addressed, can exacerbate its instability and
impede progress towards lasting stability and development. A comprehensive approach, addressing
the root causes of violence and instability, is essential for Pakistan's future well-being and security.
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broader cost of Pakistan instability
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Pakistan's Impact on Regional and Global Security

Pakistan's stability and actions have significant implications for regional and global security. As a
pivotal player in the region, its actions can either contribute to stability or become a major source of
disruption. The situation in Pakistan directly affects the security of neighboring countries, including
Afghanistan and India, and can also impact the efforts to constrain Iran's ambitions in the Middle
East.

Current Downward Course

Unfortunately, Pakistan seems to be heading on a downward trajectory. Its leadership has not
effectively addressed the root causes of internal violence or the needs of its people. Corruption and
self-serving politics have led to policies that do not prioritize the welfare of the population. The
pursuit of a regional competition with India has fueled a nuclear arms race and increased religious
extremism, threatening not only minority communities but also the moderate Sunni majority.

Challenges for the United States

The instability in Pakistan presents significant challenges for the United States. Finding a favorable
resolution to the Afghan conflict and establishing regional stability in South Asia are crucial strategic
interests for the US. However, options for direct military intervention in Pakistan are limited and
deeply resented by the Pakistani people and leadership. Economic assistance has not yielded the
desired results, and cross-border sanctuaries for insurgents remain a problem.

US Dependence on Pakistan's Cooperation

Despite challenges, the US, its allies, and the Afghan government rely on Pakistan's cooperation in
countering militant threats. Intelligence support from Pakistan is vital for understanding militant
dynamics, and the logistic route through Pakistan remains crucial for their operations in Afghanistan.

US Unpopularity in Pakistan

One major obstacle to a fruitful strategic relationship between the US and Pakistan is the deep
unpopularity of the US in Pakistan. This makes it difficult to build a truly effective strategic
partnership and limits the success of economic and military aid. It also hinders the transformation of
the US role from constant pressure on Pakistan to a genuine strategic alliance.

Pakistan's Responsibility for its Future

Ultimately, Pakistan's fate lies in its own hands. Only Pakistan can save itself from its internal and
external challenges. This requires a shift in the leadership's approach and a reevaluation of what
"victory" means for the nation and its people. As long as policies prioritize short-term gains over the
long-term welfare of the population, Pakistan will continue to face instability and remain a
challenging partner for the US and the region.
1. Security Concerns: The withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan created a security
vacuum, which was quickly exploited by various extremist groups, including the Taliban and other
terrorist organizations. These groups found safe havens in Afghanistan's border regions and used
them as launchpads for attacks in Pakistan. Pakistan faced an increase in terrorism and insurgency in
its tribal areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, leading to loss of lives and damage to
infrastructure.

2. Refugee Crisis: The instability and violence in Afghanistan resulted in a significant influx of
Afghan refugees into Pakistan. Pakistan has a long history of hosting Afghan refugees, and the post-
2014 period saw a new surge of displaced people seeking safety across the border. This influx put
pressure on Pakistan's resources, including education, health, and social services, and strained its
economy.

3. Border Management: The Pakistan-Afghanistan border, known as the Durand Line, has been
historically difficult to manage due to its length and rugged terrain. With the increased movement of
militants, weapons, and drugs across the border, Pakistan faced challenges in securing the border
effectively. Improved border management and cooperation with Afghanistan became crucial to
prevent cross-border infiltration.

4. Sectarian Tensions: The Afghanistan conflict added to sectarian tensions within Pakistan,
particularly between Sunni and Shia communities. The rise of extremist ideologies and involvement
of militant groups fueled violence and targeted attacks against minority communities. Pakistan faced
challenges in countering sectarianism and promoting interfaith harmony.

5. Economic Impact: Pakistan's involvement in the U.S.-led war on terror came at a cost to its
economy. The country invested significant resources in supporting counterterrorism efforts, leading
to financial strain. Additionally, the closure of trade and transit routes through Afghanistan disrupted
regional trade, affecting Pakistan's economic growth and development.

6. Diplomatic Balancing: Pakistan had to carefully navigate its relations with both Afghanistan and
the United States. The U.S. accused Pakistan of providing safe havens to militant groups, while
Pakistan argued that it was doing its best to combat terrorism. Managing these complex
relationships and addressing mutual suspicions became a diplomatic challenge for Pakistan.

7. Cross-Border Terrorism: Pakistan has long accused Afghanistan of harboring and supporting
militants who launch cross-border attacks into its territory. This situation strained bilateral relations
between the two countries and made it difficult to address terrorism effectively. Increased
cooperation and intelligence-sharing between Pakistan and Afghanistan were essential to tackle this
challenge.

8. Regional Dynamics: The Afghanistan conflict has broader implications for regional stability.
Pakistan shares strategic interests and concerns with other neighboring countries like China, Iran,
and Central Asian states. Instability in Afghanistan could spill over and impact regional security and
economic interests, requiring Pakistan to engage in regional diplomacy and cooperation.
 9. Peace Process and Reconciliation: With the U.S. withdrawal, efforts to pursue peace and
reconciliation in Afghanistan became more critical. Pakistan has been involved in facilitating talks
between the Afghan government and the Taliban. However, the complex dynamics and divergent
interests of various stakeholders made the peace process challenging to navigate.

In conclusion, the post-2014 period brought significant implications and challenges for Pakistan
stemming from the Afghanistan war. Security concerns, refugee influx, border management,
sectarian tensions, economic impact, diplomatic balancing, cross-border terrorism, regional
dynamics, and the peace process were among the key issues that Pakistan had to address while
managing its relationship with Afghanistan and other regional actors.

provide a timeline of challenges post 2014

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Here's a timeline of some of the key challenges Pakistan faced post-2014 in relation to the
Afghanistan war:

2014:

 Security Concerns: The Pakistan military launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb in June to target militant
groups in the tribal areas. The operation aimed to eliminate terrorist sanctuaries and curb violence in
the country.

2015:

 Terrorist Attacks: Terrorist attacks continued in Pakistan, with notable incidents like the Peshawar
school massacre in December 2014, and the attack on Bacha Khan University in January 2016,
leading to civilian casualties and increased concerns about security.

2016:

 Pathankot Attack: In January, a terror attack on the Pathankot Air Force base in India raised
tensions between Pakistan and India, affecting regional stability.

2017:

 Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad: In February, Pakistan launched a new military operation, Radd-ul-

Fasaad, to counter terrorism and strengthen the security situation in the country.

2018:

 Election-Related Violence: Ahead of the general elections in July, Pakistan witnessed an increase in
election-related violence, with attacks targeting political rallies and candidates.
 2019:

 Balochistan Separatism: Balochistan continued to witness separatist movements, with attacks on

security forces and infrastructure, leading to instability in the province.

2020:

 COVID-19 Pandemic: Pakistan, like many other countries, faced the challenge of managing the
COVID-19 pandemic, which impacted public health and the economy.

2021:

 Afghanistan Conflict Escalation: Following the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, the
country witnessed a surge in violence, with the Taliban gaining territory. This raised concerns about
regional stability and the potential spillover of conflict into Pakistan.

2022:

 Cross-Border Incidents: Pakistan faced cross-border incidents with Afghanistan, with accusations of
militants launching attacks from Afghan soil.

2023:

 Refugee Crisis: The ongoing conflict in Afghanistan led to a fresh influx of Afghan refugees into
Pakistan, putting pressure on resources and humanitarian efforts.

2023 (Ongoing):

 Peace Process and Regional Cooperation: Pakistan continued to engage in the Afghan peace
process, supporting talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. Regional cooperation
remained essential to address security challenges and promote stability in the region.

Please note that this timeline is not exhaustive and only highlights some of the key challenges
Pakistan faced post-2014 in relation to the Afghanistan war. The security situation and regional
dynamics have been complex and constantly evolving, impacting Pakistan's domestic and foreign
policies

1.
The Threat: Militants in Pakistan and Afghanistan pose a direct threat to the United
States and its allies. They jeopardize the stability of Pakistan, a nuclear power that lives
in an uneasy peace with its rival, India. U.S.- and NATO-led military operations have
cleared the vast majority of international terrorist training camps in Afghanistan. But top
al-Qaeda leaders and other international terrorists fled to Pakistan, where they continue
to plan attacks against the United States and its allies.
2. Serious Attempts and Threats: Since 9/11, there have been more than a dozen serious
attempts—some successful, some thwarted—to attack the United States and American
allies that were planned or supported by groups on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
These include the Times Square bomber in 2010; the plot against the New York subway
system in 2009; the plan to attack the Barcelona metro system in 2008; and other plots
known and unknown to the general public.
3. Weakening Extremist Groups: Military operations in Afghanistan and missile strikes on
the Pakistani side of the border have placed intense pressure on al-Qaeda and other
militants. But the United States cannot destroy the threat posed by al-Qaeda without
weakening the other extremist groups in the region that offer it resources and safe
haven, including the Afghan Taliban. Parts of the Afghan Taliban can be brought into
the political fold in Afghanistan, but other elements have deep ties with al-Qaeda.
4. Afghan Taliban and Safe Havens: Some elements of the Taliban, including fighters in
the Haqqani network and groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), are already active inside
Afghanistan. The United States cannot underestimate the threat they pose to U.S.
security if they gain more operating space within Afghanistan. The Haqqani network,
based in Pakistan's FATA, is responsible for attacks on U.S., Afghan, and Indian targets in
Afghanistan.
5. Al-Qaeda Headquarters and Dangerous Home Base: Al-Qaeda's senior leaders have
established a stronghold in the border regions between Afghanistan and Pakistan,
making it a particularly dangerous home base. Afghanistan represents a rallying cry for
jihadists who believe they toppled the Soviet Union there.
6. Pakistan's Distinctions: Pakistan draws distinctions between militant groups, acting
aggressively against some while providing support to others targeting Afghanistan,
India, and others. Afghan Taliban leaders have operated from inside Pakistan since
being toppled by the United States.
7. Implications of Militant Networks: The Haqqani network and LeT go virtually
untouched by Pakistani authorities, and their activities could provoke crises between
India and Pakistan. These groups also recruit U.S. citizens to extend their reach and
avoid detection.
8. Instability and Terrorism Feed on Each Other: Terrorism and extremism in Pakistan
feed on the country's other challenges, including natural disasters, rapid population
growth, and poor economic prospects. This creates opportunities for militant groups to
exploit vulnerabilities and expand their networks.
9. Nuclear Program and Public Alienation: The existence of extensive militant networks
targeting Pakistanis is dangerous given Pakistan's expanding nuclear program. Rapid
population growth and poor economic prospects increase public alienation, allowing
militant groups to exploit power vacuums.
 The text does not have traditional headings, but these paragraph breakdowns highlight
the key points of each section.
1.
Pakistan's Positive Strides: This section discusses the progress made by Pakistan in
recent years. It highlights the capacity for political and social activism demonstrated by
its civil society and media, exemplified by the lawyer-led protests that brought back
civilian rule in 2008. Additionally, there has been growing support among Pakistanis for
military operations against the Pakistani Taliban based along the border with
Afghanistan. This shift in public opinion represents a significant change from the past,
where such operations might have been viewed as implausible or unpopular.
2. Unimaginable Natural Disaster: This part addresses the recent natural disaster faced
by Pakistan in the form of massive floods. The disaster has had immediate humanitarian
implications for millions of citizens, and the subsequent recovery and reconstruction
efforts will have far-reaching consequences for the country. How Pakistan copes with
this burden will impact its capacity to address various challenges, including combating
extremism and militancy. Given Pakistan's size and importance, the flood's effects have
global significance.
3. Pakistan as a Terrorist Hub: This section focuses on Pakistan's role as a significant base
for international terrorism. Despite efforts by the U.S. military and intelligence, terrorist
groups like al-Qaeda continue to operate in remote regions along the Afghan border
and in major cities like Karachi. The country's well-developed telecommunications,
financial, and transportation networks provide terrorists with access to resources and
international reach, making it difficult to choke off their financial support and
recruitment.
4. Attractive Terrorist Hub: This part delves into the reasons why Pakistan remains an
attractive hub for terrorists. It cites the presence of sympathizers within the public who
have been exposed to extremist rhetoric and ideologies over the years. It also discusses
Pakistan's history of officially sponsored militancy, which complicates efforts to combat
terrorism. Moreover, Pakistan's policy of distinguishing between militant groups,
supporting some while targeting others, poses challenges and contradicts U.S. regional
security efforts.
5. LeT: A Globalized Terror Network: Here, the focus is on Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a group
with strong historical links to Pakistan's intelligence community and al-Qaeda. The text
highlights LeT's growing globalized terror network, with hubs and operatives across
South Asia, linked to networks in the Persian Gulf and having supporters in the West.
The group poses a direct threat to Western targets in Europe and could potentially
surpass al-Qaeda in sophistication and danger if unchecked.
6. Mumbai Attack and Indo-Pakistani Tensions: This segment references the 2008
Mumbai attack carried out by Pakistan-based terrorists, illustrating the potential
dangers posed to American citizens and the risk of sparking a conflict between India
 and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed nations. Escalated tensions between the two countries
could disrupt the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan by affecting Pakistan's vital supply
corridors for NATO forces.
7. Weak Institutions and Political Uncertainty: This section addresses Pakistan's weak
and corrupt civilian institutions, including the judiciary and police force. These
weaknesses alienate the public and energize extremists. Additionally, Pakistan's tribal
areas along the Afghan border lack modern state administrative features, with militant
groups exploiting this power vacuum. Furthermore, the country's tumultuous politics,
alternating between civilian and military rule, have hindered economic growth and
discouraged private investment.
8. Nuclear Weapons: Finally, this part discusses Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, estimating it
houses between eighty and one hundred nuclear weapons. The presence of
sophisticated terrorist groups in Pakistan raises concerns about the safety and security
of its nuclear program. Pakistan seeks international acceptance of its nuclear status,
similar to India, and believes that U.S. nuclear policy reflects a double standard. These
differences over nuclear issues contribute to a lack of trust between the U.S. and
Pakistan.