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Procedia CIRP 93 (2020) 431–436
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53rd CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems

Application of Machine Learning for Product Batch Oriented Control

of Production Processes
Moritz Meiners*, Andreas Mayr, Maximilian Thomsen, Jörg Franke
Institute for Factory Automation and Production Systems (FAPS), Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU),
Fuerther Str. 246b, 90429 Nuremberg, Germany

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +49-911-5302-9073; fax: +49-911-5302-9070. E-mail address: moritz.meiners@faps.fau.de

Abstract

The digitalization in manufacturing offers high potential for optimization in terms of quality and efficiency. In particular, machine learning
techniques can be used to analyze data generated along the production chain for complex patterns. As the final product quality highly depends
on interactions within the production chain, a process control system needs to consider all information of the supplied semi-finished products to
achieve a continuously high quality. Using machine learning, this work presents a two-stage batch control system to optimize a batch process
with high interdependencies between the delivered material, used equipment and process parameters concerning the final product quality.
© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 53rd CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems
Keywords: batch process; batch control; machine learning; production optimization

1. Introduction When mapping the many interdependencies, however, clas-

Several types of industries, such as chemical, pharmaceuti-
cal, or ceramics production, use batch processes in production.
Typically, a batch is produced out of the same raw materials
and consists of several parts that follow each production step
simultaneously [1]. Throughout production, a high degree of re-
producibility is desired across batches to ensure the fulfillment
of quality targets [2].
The reproducibility often proves difficult for various inter-
acting reasons that lead to a high degree of complexity. Firstly,
the used raw materials are often nature products and vary sig-
nificantly in their composition and properties. Secondly, the
chemical reactions to process the raw materials are highly non-
linear and difficult to model. Lastly, the condition of production
equipment differs due to aging and corrosion processes as well
as different maintenance states. [3,4] For this reason, even
batches of the same raw materials produced with the same pa-
rameters may create different results if the condition of the pro-
duction equipment of the two batches diverges too far.
sic batch control systems based on fixed rules and expert expe-
rience are reaching their limits. In contrast to such rule-based
systems, a machine learning (ML) system is trained using sam-
ple data rather than explicitly programmed [5]. This makes it
suitable for solving complex, fuzzy problems for which it is
hard to derive explicit rules. Therefore, this paper proposes a
novel two-stage architecture for controlling process parameters
in batch production using ML techniques in order to achieve
near-optimal quality results. To validate the approach, data
from a manufacturer of piezo actuators were used. But before
the actual use case is presented, the necessary basics are to be
introduced.
2. State of the art and objectives
This section first gives a general overview of ML in manu-
facturing and then more specific applications for batch pro-
cesses. Based on this, current shortcomings are identified, and
the objectives of the present research activities are derived.

2212-8271 © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 53rd CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems
10.1016/j.procir.2020.04.006

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 432 Moritz Meiners et al. / Procedia CIRP 93 (2020) 431–436
2.1. Machine learning in manufacturing
In recent years, the intelligent analysis of production data
has been considered as one of the biggest levers for further pro-
cess improvements. Many terms have emerged in this context,
such as Industry 4.0, Smart Manufacturing, or Industrial Inter-
net of Things. [6]
In these advanced manufacturing systems, machines are
equipped with various sensors that transmit the measured data
through networks to be saved on a central storage server, typi-
cally a kind of manufacturing execution system (MES). The
collected manufacturing data can then be analyzed using clas-
sic statistics or more advanced algorithms that originate from
the broad field of ML. These powerful algorithms are capable
of identifying previously unknown patterns and trends within
the data set, allowing them to perform regression and classifi-
cation tasks based on self-learned rules that have not been ex-
plicitly programmed. [6,7]
Plenty of ML algorithms have been developed over time,
such as support vector machines (SVM), k-nearest neighbors,
k-means clustering, decision trees, random forests, or artificial
neural networks (ANN). Most prominently, deep learning
methods, a broader family of ML techniques based on ANN,
have achieved remarkable results. [6–8]
Although there are already numerous applications of ML in
manufacturing [9], they usually pursue the goal of increasing
quality while reducing costs and time [10]. In this context,
Wang et al. [6] identify three major applications of deep learn-
ing in smart manufacturing: product quality inspection, fault
diagnosis, and defect prognosis. In contrast, Bajic et al. [8] list
more general ML applications like optimization, control, trou-
bleshooting, security, verification for transparency, and im-
provement of process quality. This paper addresses the area of
process control, especially in batch production, to ensure a con-
tinuously high product quality despite numerous interdepend-
encies.
2.2. Machine learning in batch manufacturing processes
Batch processes represent dynamic systems with a high de-
gree of complexity due to varying raw material compositions,
nonlinear chemical reactions, and different machine units. Fur-
thermore, the chemical reactions of the raw materials as well as
the influence of different machine states are often not well un-
derstood. [1]
Thus, batch control techniques aim to compensate these de-
viations by adapting the process parameters in such a way that
batches of similar properties are still produced. Master recipes
define these processing instructions that are tailored to each in-
dividual batch in a control recipe. [1] Due to the low under-
standing of complex physical and chemical phenomena, these
recipes are often based on past experiences and not very pre-
cise. Unfortunately, these recipes do not always perform well,
resulting in quality losses, while they are still complex and
time-consuming to use. [10]
However, methods of ML have proven to be capable of gen-
eralizing complex relationships in data sets very well and have
already been used in some applications for batch processes. For
instance, Joseph and Hanratty [10] apply ANNs to control a
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simulated autoclave curing batch process. Kühnert and Bernard
[11] use SVMs to identify near-optimal control patterns in in-
dustrial batch processes. Besides, Chen and Lin [12] propose a
two-step multi-way partial least squares model for the control
of batch reactors. Furthermore, Tulsyan et al. [2] tackle the
problem of limited data for biopharmaceutical batch process
monitoring with ML methods. Last but not least, Flores-Cer-
rillo and MacGregor [3] use partial least squares models for the
prediction and control of final batch product quality.
2.3. Shortcomings and derived objectives
Most of the previous work on applying ML methods for
batch control processes focuses on predicting the quality of
parts at an early stage before the final product is completed.
Through this early information allocation, other process steps
can be adapted to improve the quality of the parts. Alterna-
tively, if it seems impossible to get the parts within tolerance,
they can be disposed of to prevent further waste of labor.
Although preliminary work has been done, the presented ap-
proaches need further investigation to find process parameters
to manufacture near-optimal quality. Ideally, the available data
can be used to determine better process parameters for the in-
dividual situations immediately and, thus, to automate the ad-
justment of the parameters.
Therefore, this paper uses ML methods to directly predict
the process parameters that will most likely produce parts with
near-optimal quality results for an unknown batch of raw ma-
terials. Furthermore, the system takes into account the change
in the plant condition between batches of the same raw mate-
rial. For this task, a two-stage architecture is proposed to handle
best the uncertainty associated with the unknown batch. From
the evaluation in a real-world environment, potentials as well
as risks become apparent when implementing ML models for
batch processes. Of course, the approach shown below can also
be transferred to any industry that relies on batch processes.
3. Development of a product batch oriented control of
production processes
This section will first introduce the original batch control
process that has been investigated at the industrial partner, a
manufacturer of piezo actuators. While describing the peculi-
arities of the process considered here, it will also highlight pre-
requisites for adopting the use case to other processes. Then the
proposed two-stage model architecture, the data preparation
process as well as the model training and selection phase are
presented in detail.
3.1. Existing batch control process
In the manufacturing of piezo actuators, one of the most in-
fluential process steps for the final product quality is a sintering
process in batch ovens. However, the raw materials for this pro-
cess are supplied in slightly varying compositions. One raw
material batch is usually divided into 70 to 80 sub-batches that
will be produced along the process chain into final products.
The assumption is that for each batch of raw materials, there
 Moritz Meiners et al. / Procedia CIRP 93 (2020) 431–436
exists one ideal sintering temperature that will produce parts of
near-optimal quality.
As this ideal temperature is unknown, three sub-batches are
first produced with a similar sintering temperature as the previ-
ously produced batches of raw materials. Depending on the
quality of this pre-batch, the sintering temperature of the rest of
the raw material batch is adapted once according to fixed rules
based on experience. Further controlling of the sintering tem-
perature is not performed as the throughput times are very long,
and the quality is thus only checked at the end of the production
of the main-batch. This general sequence of the existing batch
control is summarized in Fig. 1. According to procedural re-
quirements, 13 different sintering temperatures can be set as
parameters.
Batch of
Parameter of
previous raw
batches material
Pre- Main-
batch batch
Parameter for pre- Parameter for
batch main-batch
Production Production
Quality results Quality results
Fig. 1. General sequence of the existing batch control process.
In summary, the use case considered here can be character-
ized as follows:
 A large batch of raw materials of varying composition that
is used across more than one batch of goods
 A critical process step with high sensitivity in parameter
control and great impact on product quality
 A very long throughput time in production which does not
allow further control measures of the critical process
3.2. Proposed two-stage batch control system based on ML
Similar to the existing batch control process, a two-stage ar-
chitecture is developed with two ML models at its core. This
overall developed system is shown in Fig. 2. The first model
predicts the probably suitable sintering temperature for a com-
pletely unknown new batch of raw materials. The pre-batch
consisting of three sub-batches is then produced with the pre-
dicted sintering temperature.
The related ML models are trained to map the relationship
between quality and temperature, while also taking other input
data such as system and process parameters into account. As
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433
the target quality might change over time, it is considered a fea-
ture that can be easily adapted in the operating phase. In the
training phase, however, the quality actually achieved, not the
target quality, is inserted as a feature (see section 3.4). The pa-
rameter to be predicted, the sintering temperature, represents
the label of the models.
After the production of the pre-batch, the quality results
thereof are fed as additional parameters into the second model.
By adding the pre-batch results with the new raw material
batch, the second model is capable of giving more precise pre-
dictions on the suitable sintering temperature. It is therefore
adept at predicting a higher or lower temperature depending on
whether the quality results of the pre-batch were too high or too
low. Additionally, it considers the remaining system and pro-
cess parameters, which might have changed in the meantime.
For example, the sintering oven or its condition may have al-
tered. In summary, the second ML model offers a mechanism
that, if necessary, adapts the results of the first model.
Pre-batch control:
Raw material data
Temperature
Quality targets
Pre-batch Quality
Model 1
System and production results
process parameter
Main-batch control:
Raw material data
Temperature
Quality targets Main-batch
Model 2 Quality
production
System and results
process parameter
Fig. 2. Two-stage architecture for a batch control based on ML.
3.3. Structure of the given data set and suitable train-test split
Data for the different types of influences on the final product
quality are usually stored in different data sources. For a com-
bined consideration of all interdependencies in a ML model,
the various data sources have to be joint together. Accordingly,
the data set for the ML models is created by joining three data
sources:
 Raw material composition and properties information
within the supplier data
 System and process parameters, also including the condition
of the respective sintering oven, e.g. oven runs since last
maintenance cycle
 Quality data of the resulting parts such as electrical meas-
urements
The combination of these three data sources will allow the
algorithms to attain a better understanding of the nonlinear
chemical reactions and the crucial chemicals in the raw mate-
rial. In addition, influences such as the plant conditions are
taken into account. The aforementioned ML models can then
map the complex interactions of these variables, allowing for
better predictions of the adequate sintering temperature.
Usually, the data is split randomly into train, validation, and
test data. However, in this case, a random train-test split would
not lead to the promised results. Since a raw material batch is
subdivided into multiple sub-batches, the material data for
these sub-batches is the same of the main batch. Therefore, a
random train-test split would lead to data sets of the same raw
 434 Moritz Meiners et al. / Procedia CIRP 93 (2020) 431–436
material in both training and test data. This is a special kind of
information leakage that leads to too mistakenly high accuracy
scores on randomly selected test data.
To avoid this a developed approach of train-test split
adapted to batch production is applied, which is visualized in
Fig. 3. In this example, two years of data are considered,
wherein for each of the 13 possible output temperatures, an en-
tire batch of raw material or, in other words, the related 70 to
80 sub-batches are excluded from the training data to form a
first test data set. In total, this data set contains roughly 1000
batches. Thereby, the raw material batches of the test data set 1
are entirely separate from the training and validation data. This
test set is used to prove the general functionality of the created
model and to see whether all temperature classes can be pre-
dicted correctly. This is particularly important as the tempera-
ture classes are imbalanced in this case.
X – 2 years X
Raw data
Training and validation data Test data 1
Fig. 3. Chosen split into train and test data.
In addition, a second test data set is suggested, consisting of
new raw material batches which are not included in the training
data. To be as realistic as possible, the last produced batches
are preferably used here. By using continuous data as opposed
to the first test data set, time trends in the prediction could be
made visible, improving the comparability of the new and old
control system.
To compare the performance of the two systems for sinter-
ing temperature prediction, the assumed ideal temperature for
each part is calculated based on the final quality results. Of
course, the ideal temperature can only be roughly estimated us-
ing known rules and expert experience since not all interactions
are fully understood. Nevertheless, the hypothetical ideal tem-
perature already gives a good impression of how well the ML
approach performs compared to the classic batch control sys-
tem.
As a result, three different sintering temperatures have to be
differentiated in the present paper:
 The original temperature actually used in the production,
which is stored in the historical data set and used as label
during the training phase
 The predicted temperature of the ML model(s)
 The hypothetical ideal temperature, estimated for later per-
formance comparison with the classic batch control system
(see section 4)
3.4. Model training and selection
The models shown in Fig. 2 were prototypically imple-
mented in Python using the Keras library. In the present case,
both models consist of an ensemble of 20 ANNs, i.e. multi-lay-
ered perceptrons in concrete terms. The result of the ensemble
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represents the most frequently predicted temperature class out
of all 20 predictions.
The process parameter to adjust, in this case the sintering
temperature, is used as label. As the temperature control only
allows setting whole numbers, classification instead of regres-
sion is applied, here with 13 classes. The input data consists of
all remaining available and influencing data, i.e. the raw mate-
rial information, system and process parameters as well as the
quality data. While for the later model operation the target qual-
ity is entered, for the model training the quality actually
achieved is used. In doing so, the model learns the actual inter-
relation between temperature and quality and does not just re-
flect the behavior of the classic batch control system.
As can be seen in Fig. 2, there is one ML model for the tem-
perature prediction for the pre-batch and one for the main-
batch. While their label is the same, the second model is trained
with further input data. It is enriched with added features rep-
resenting the results, temperature settings, and belonging plant
conditions of the pre-batch that have the same raw material.
Test data 2 To find a functional model complexity, different architec-
tures with different numbers of nodes in six hidden layers have
been tried. The training was performed with a batch size of 32,
early stopping, the Adam optimizer, a learning rate of 0.01 with
batch normalization, and cross-entropy as the loss function.
The tests were done without and with dropouts of 0.1 and 0.3
and were settled at 0.1.
Fig. 4 exemplarily shows the average accuracy and loss of a
single ANN for the first model on the test data set 1 and 2 with
low (32), medium (64), and a high (128) number of nodes in
each hidden layer. While the differences in the accuracies are
small, there is a significant difference in the loss between a low
and a high number of nodes. This indicates a better generaliza-
tion for models with a low number of nodes, meaning that the
false predictions are nearer to the correct classes. For further
investigations, it was thus opted for the models with the low
number of nodes.
60 4
%
3
40
Accuracy →
Loss →
30 2
20
Test1 Genauigkeit
Test data set 1 Acc. 1
10 Test data set 1 Loss
Test2 Genauigkeit
Test data set 2 Acc. Test data set 2 Loss
0 0
low medium high low medium high
Number of nodes
Fig. 4. Comparison of the average accuracy (left) and loss (right) of a single
ANN of the ensemble used for model 1 on test data set 1 and 2.
Next to the ensembles of ANNs, random forest models were
investigated. Here, limiting the depth was necessary since oth-
erwise, the models overfitted. While showing potential for im-
provement, the accuracy of the random forest models fell be-
hind the accuracy of the ensembles of ANNs. In the near future,
other ML models may be tried out as well.
 Moritz Meiners et al. / Procedia CIRP 93 (2020) 431–436
4. Evaluation of the proposed two-stage control system
The evaluation of the proposed architecture was conducted
in two steps. At first, the general classification functionality of
the two models was tested using test data set 1. In the second
step, the performance is compared with the existing batch con-
trol system.
With regard to the first step, confusion matrices are used to
visualize the prediction accuracy of the two models effectively
(Fig. 5). In both cases, the correct classification diagonal from
the top left corner to the bottom right is not exactly met. How-
ever, most classifications are more or less in the right tempera-
ture area. Parts that were sintered at a lower temperature are
also classified as low temperature, and the same applies to
higher temperature parts. The absolute accuracy for the first
model is about 37 %, whereas the accuracy for the second
model is about 47 %. As Fig. 5 shows, a tolerance of plus or
minus one or two degrees, which is suitable in the investigated
scenario, would lead to a significant rise of accuracy.
Fig. 5. Confusion matrix of the first and second model on test data 1.
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435
Furthermore, the scattering of the misclassifications in the
second model is lower. It confirms that the results of the pre-
batch give valuable information to the second model that im-
prove the classification results. Thus, the two-stage model ar-
chitecture improves performance compared to a single model.
In conclusion, the confusion matrices show that the models are
generally capable of mapping the achieved quality and other
input data with the respective temperature.
In the next step, it must be evaluated if the proposed ML
system outperforms the classic batch control system. To have a
common standard of comparison, the aforementioned hypo-
thetical ideal temperature is calculated for each part within the
test data set. These calculations are performed by comparing
the quality targets with the produced quality and using a rule of
thumb of the old system to calculate the assumed ideal temper-
ature. This ideal temperature, although being hypothetical, suf-
fices to give an indication which system would work better.
The data of the most current produced parts, represented by
test data set 2, are used to compare the two systems. Since his-
torical data are used, the coupling of the two ML models cannot
be simulated. Instead, model 2 uses the result values of the re-
spective pre-lot whose temperature was determined by the old
system. As the trained model 2 is now in operation mode, not
the achieved quality but the quality target is used as input.
Thereby, the ML models do not predict the originally applied
temperature but try to predict the ideal temperature. The origi-
nal sintering temperature, which is the temperature of the old
system, and the predicted temperature by the ML model, are
then compared to the hypothetical ideal temperature. The dif-
ference to the ideal sintering temperature is calculated for each
sub-batch in test data set 2. The diagram in Fig. 6 plots the ab-
solute differences in two boxplots.
Fig. 6. Boxplot of the average difference to the hypothetical ideal temperature
for the classic and ML-based system on test data set 2.
Both the average difference and the scattering of the differ-
ence to the ideal temperature are lower on the predictions made
by the new system compared to the old one. The average dif-
ference decreased from 2.23 Kelvin to 1.94 Kelvin or by 13 %,
whereas the standard deviation decreased from 1.2 to 1.02, i.e.
an improvement by 15 %.
To further evaluate how the ML-based system outperforms
the old one, a time series of the average original, predicted and
 436 Moritz Meiners et al. / Procedia CIRP 93 (2020) 431–436
hypothetical ideal sintering temperature for each batch of raw
materials is depicted in Fig. 7. It shows that, especially during
the raw material batch numbers 24 to 32, the new system cor-
rectly performs the change to lower temperatures. The older
system seems too slow to catch up to the trend shift. By the
time it lowers the temperature, which is around raw material
batch number 32, it is already too late, and higher temperatures
are necessary again. Consequently, the new system results in a
lower average deviation from the ideal temperature and im-
proves the quality of the sintered parts. Therefore, the devel-
oped approach improves the sintering temperature control pro-
cess. Since no more predefined rules and expert experience are
needed, the ML-based architecture also offers the possibility of
fully automating the batch control process.
Temperature
Original temperature Ideal temperature
Predicted temperature
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
Raw material batch number
Fig. 7. Time series of the original, the predicted and the hypothetical ideal
temperature for batches of the test data set 2.
5. Conclusion and outlook
This paper presents a two-stage approach based on ML that
optimizes and automates the process control in batch produc-
tion, also taking changes in raw material and plant conditions
into account. Unlike the classic control system, the ML-based
system does not rely on predefined rules and expert experience
but automatically extracts the interdependencies from existent
material, process and quality data.
First of all, ML algorithms have proven to be capable of
mastering the complexity of batch processes in manufacturing.
The proposed approach directly predicts the process parameter
value that is supposed to produce near-optimal quality. In the
present case, the new system has a significant optimization po-
tential compared to the old one. The proposed ML models not
only map the interdependencies in production but directly pre-
dict the appropriate sintering temperature class.
Secondly, a two-stage architecture consisting of two ML
models is introduced that handles the uncertainty of new
batches better than a single model. As with the old system, a
small pre-batch is first produced to optimize the parameters for
the remaining sub-batches, the main-batch. The developed pro-
totype shows promising results in the investigated application,
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with better parameter control mechanisms than the old system.
With a broader data set, the quality of temperature control
might increase even further.
Finally, with an adequate infrastructure, the new system has
the potential of acting entirely autonomously and thereby re-
ducing the workload on highly qualified engineers that have to
perform time-consuming tasks to operate the old system. Ad-
ditionally, the system allows splitting the entire batch into more
sub-batches and manufacture at different times as the suitable
sintering temperature can be determined individually depend-
ing on the respective equipment. This could lead to more flex-
ible manufacturing strategies in the future.
Acknowledgments
The research presented here is part of the project ‘Advanced
Analytics for Production Optimization‘, which is funded by the
Bavarian program for the “Investment for growth and jobs” ob-
jective financed by the European Regional Development Fund
(ERDF).
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