Sudha Goel, Ph.D.

Professor, Env Eng and Management

Civil Eng. Dept., IITKgp
Kharagpur 721 302

1
Reports Assessment Main conclusion
cycle
IPCC, First The observed increase in temperature could be largely due to
1990 natural variability; alternatively, this variability and other man-
made factors could have offset a still larger man-made
greenhouse warming
IPCC, Second The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence
1995 on global climate
IPCC, Third There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
2001 observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities
IPCC, Fourth Most of the increase in global temperatures since the mid-
2007 twentieth century …are due to increase in anthropogenic GHG
concentrations
IPCC, Fifth Human impact on climate change is clear and anthropogenic
2014 GHG emissions are highest in history
IPCC, Sixth Total net anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued to rise
2022 during the period 2010–2019, as have cumulative net CO2
emissions since 1850. Average annual GHG emissions during
2010–2019 were higher than in any previous decade, but the
rate of growth between 2010 and 2019 was lower than
that between 2000 and 2009. (high confidence) (Figure SPM.1)2
3
 Climate change
mitigation options for
the future, IPCC-
2022 summary for
policy makers

4
5
IPCC, 2014

1. Anomalies are relative to

average of datasets from
1986 to 2005
2. Data are aligned to 1993
values, i.e., all have the
same value for 1993 when
satellite altimetric data were
available.

6
 Climate Change
◦ Greenhouse effect
◦ Evidence, causes and effects
◦ Keeling curve, Global warming potential
◦ Ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere and the Montreal
Protocol
◦ Role of IPCC in the understanding of climate change
 Global climate agreements
◦ The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
◦ The Kyoto Protocol
◦ The Paris Agreement
 Mitigation strategies
◦ Carbon capture, utilization and storage
◦ Adapting to climate changeMasters and Ela, 2012 and other sources
7
Constituent Formula % by volume
Nitrogen N2 78.08
Oxygen O2 20.95
Argon Ar 0.93
Carbon dioxide CO2 0.038
Neon Ne 0.0018
Helium He 0.0005
Methane CH4 0.00017
Krypton Kr 0.00011
Nitrous oxide N2 O 0.00003
Hydrogen H2 0.00005
Ozone O3 0.000004

Masters and Ela, 2012 8



High degree of
mixing

Stable, less mixing

Turbulent

9
https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/climate-science-
data/climate-science/greenhouse-effect
10
https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2166/ 11
 CO2
 Methane
 Nitrous oxide
 Halocarbons (eg., chlorofluorocarbons)
 Ozone
 Aerosols
 Additions in IPCC, 2022:
◦ SF6 (sulfur hexafluoride) used in electricity transmission and
distribution; it is 23,500 times more potent than CO2 as a
GHG
◦ NF3 (Nitrogen trifluoride) used in flat panel displays,
photovoltaics and LED bulbs; it is 17,200 times more potent
than CO2 as a GHG

12
https://en.wikipe
dia.org/wiki/Abso
rption_band

13
Khoiyangbam and Gupta, 2015
14
 Increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration
 Global temperature rise
 Warming of the oceans
 Shrinking ice sheets
 Glacier retreat
 Decreased snow cover
 Sea level rise
 Declining Arctic sea ice
 Extreme events
 Ocean acidification

15
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ 16
 Respiration/ Photosynthesis

C6H12O6 + 6O2 ↔ 6CO2 + 6H2O

 Graph of concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in Earth’s atmosphere since
1958. Measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, USA, 3000 m above MSL.
 Name is based on its creator, Dr. Charles David Keeling.
 Keeling began studying atmospheric carbon dioxide in 1956 by taking air
samples and measuring the amount of CO2 they contained.
 Daily variations: Air samples taken at night contained a higher concentration
of CO2 compared to samples taken during the day. Based on his
understanding of photosynthesis and plant respiration to explain this
observation: plants take in CO2 during the day to photosynthesize—or make
food for themselves—but at night, they release CO2 during respiration.
Respiration is the conversion of organic compounds (produced during the
day) to energy.
 Seasonal variations: By studying his measurements over the course of a few
years, Keeling also noticed a larger seasonal pattern. He discovered
CO2 levels are highest in May, when decomposing plant matter releases
CO2 into the air, and are lowest in autumn (Sep & Oct) when plants stop
taking in CO2 for photosynthesis (applies to temperate regions and
deciduous forests/trees) https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/keeling-curve/ 17
18
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends
/monthly.html

https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/cc
gg/trends/co2_weekly_mlo.png

19
 A decrease in 0.1 pH
units is equivalent to
30% increase in acidity
because the pH scale is
a log-scale.

Average sea surface pH

at present is approx.
8.069; pre-industrial
levels = 8.179

H2O + CO2 → H2CO3

20
 Global methane emissions
• Global methane emissions estimated for 2020 are 9390 million
metric tons of CO2 equivalent/year (MMTCO2E/y)
• Enteric fermentation by ruminants (cattle, deer) is the largest source
– cannot be controlled; Cattle are about 1 billion heads - global
• 54% of the total is from 5 major sources that are controllable – in
MMTCO2E/y for 2020 (based on USEPA data)
• Agriculture – 286; Wastewater – 672; Oil and natural gas systems
– 2276; Municipal solid waste – 1077; Coal mining - 799

https://www.globalmethane.org/documents/gmi-mitigation-factsheet.pdf 21
 Kaya identity is an application of the IPAT model for
carbon emission rate
 I = PAT where I = impact, P = population, A =
affluence and T = technology

 C = Popn x GDP/person x Primary energy/GDP x

Carbon/Primary energy
 Energy intensity = Primary energy (PE)/GDP = (Energy
used/year/(GDP/year) with units of Exa J/unit of
currency
 Carbon intensity = C in gigatons/PE (Exa Joules 1015)

22
 Current rise in the average temperature of the
atmosphere and oceans due to influx of short-
wave intense solar radiation to the earth’s surface
and emission of long-wave radiation from the
earth’s surface that is absorbed by GHGs

23
 Global warming potential (GWP) is the heat absorbed by
any greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, as a multiple of the heat
that would be absorbed by the same mass of carbon
dioxide (CO2). GWP is 1 for CO2.
 For other gases, it depends on the gas and the time frame for
calculation.
 Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e or CO2eq or CO2-e) is
calculated from GWP. It can be measured in weight or
concentration. For any amount of any gas, it is the amount
of CO2 which would warm the earth as much as that amount of
that gas. Thus it provides a common scale for measuring the
climate effects of different gases. It is calculated as GWP times
amount of the other gas. For example if a gas has GWP of 100,
two tons of the gas have CO2e of 200 tons, and 1 part per million
of the gas in the atmosphere has CO2e of 100 parts per million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential
24
 Lifetime Global warming potential, GWP
GWP values and lifetimes
(years) 20 years 100 years 500 years
21[2]; 25[4]; 28
56[2]; 72[4]; 84 /34f[5]; 32[7]; 39f 6.5[2]
Methane CH4 12.4[5]
/86f[5]; 96 [6] (biogenic)[8]; 40f 7.6[4]
(fossil) [8]
280[2]; 289[4]; 310[2]; 298[4]; 265
Nitrous oxide (N2O) 121.0[5] 170[2]; 153[4]
264 / 268f[5] / 298f [5]

HFC-
13.4[5] 3710 / 3790f[5] 1300 / 1550f[5] 435[4]
134a (hydrofluorocarbon)
CFC-
45.0[5] 6900 / 7020f[5] 4660 / 5350f[5] 1620[4]
11 (chlorofluorocarbon)
Carbon tetrafluoride (CF4 /
50,000[5] 4880 / 4950f[5] 6630 / 7350f[5] 11,200[4]
PFC-14)
HFC- 12,000[4]; 14,800[4];
222[5] 12,200[4]
23 (hydrofluorocarbon) 10,800[5] 12,400[5]
Sulfur hexafluoride SF 16,300[4] 22,800[4]
3,200[5] 32,600[4]
6 17,500[5] 23,500[5]

Hydrogen (H2) 4–7[9] 4.3[9]

25
 To understand global warming, historic records of
temperature are necessary
 Baseline temperature for calculating anomalies is 14 deg
C; baseline differs for each dataset depending on location
and time period analysed
 Global warming was first proposed by J Fourier in 1824
and quantified by Arrhenius in 1896
 Methods of measurement
Direct measurements
◦ Balloons (radiosonde measurements since 1950s)
◦ Satellites (microwave sounding since 1978)
◦ Thermometers (since 1850s)
Proxy measurements
◦ Tree rings (1000 to 2000 years ago)
◦ Ice cores (800,000 years ago)
◦ Geologic evidence (millions of years)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record)
26
 NOAA tracks anomalies relative to temperatures between 1901
and 2000. According to the NOAA's data, anomalies calculated
for 2017 were 1.5 degrees F (0.83 C) higher than the average
temperatures for all the years in the 20th century.
(https://www.space.com/17816-earth-temperature.html)
 GISS measures the change in global surface
temperatures relative to average temperatures from 1951 to
1980. GISS data show global average temperatures in 2017
rose 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) above the
1951-1980 mean. That would put the planet's average surface
temperature in 2017 at 58.62 F (14.9 C).

27
 Hottest September in recorded history in 2023. It was 1.75 deg C warmer
than the pre-industrial period.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1141937

 Global average surface temperature has increased by 1.18 deg C.

 Averaged as a whole, the global land and ocean surface temperature for
March 2020 was 1.16°C (2.09°F) above the 20th century average of
12.7°C (54.9°F) and the second highest in the 141-year record. Only
March 2016 was warmer at 1.31°C (2.36°F).
(https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202003)

https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ 28
 1972

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record 29
 1965

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-
maps/figures/global-average-near-
surface-temperature 30
•2022 was the sixth-warmest year on record based on NOAA’s temperature data.
• The 2022 surface temperature was 1.55 °F (0.86 °Celsius) warmer than the
20th-century average of 57.0 °F (13.9 °C) and 1.90 ˚F (1.06 ˚C) warmer than
the pre-industrial period (1880-1900).
•The 10 warmest years in the historical record have all occurred since 2010.

https://www.climate.gov/media/15021 31
 70% of the planet’s surface is covered by oceans
 Functions: absorbs heat and CO2 and distributes it
evenly over the globe (heat capacity of water is much
higher than air)
 90% of the heat is absorbed by the oceans; 0.33 deg
C increase in average ocean temperature
 Consequences:
◦ Acidification of oceans due to dissolved carbonic acid
◦ Higher temperatures will cause ice sheets and icebergs to
melt at the bottom and lead to higher mean sea levels
◦ Coral bleaching events are correlated to sun-cycles and El
Nino events – higher ocean temperatures may result in similar
consequences

32
33
Bhambri et al. (2023) 34
 Satellite observations reveal that the amount of spring
snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has
decreased over the past five decades and the snow is
melting earlier.
 Loss of ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland
◦ The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in
mass.
◦ Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment
show Greenland lost an average of 279 billion tons of ice per
year between 1993 and 2019.
◦ Antarctica lost about 148 billion tons of ice per year.
◦ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ 35
 Global sea level rose about 8 inches (20 centimeters) in the
last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is
nearly double that of the last century and accelerating slightly
every year.

36
 Lohachara Island was an islet which was permanently flooded in the
1980s. It was located in the Hooghly River as part of the Sundarban
delta in the Sundarban National Park, in the Indian state of West
Bengal. The definite disappearance of the island was reported by
Indian researchers in December 2006, which lead to international
press coverage. First inhabited island to disappear.
 The islet is one of a number of "vanishing islands" in India's part of
the delta: in the past two decades, Bedford, Lohachara, Kabasgadi
and Suparibhanga, Ghoramara – have been permanently flooded and
more than 6,000 families have been made homeless. The loss of
land has created thousands of refugees in the area.
 Gangasagar island refugee camp for those rendered landless due to
this phenomenon.
https://www.wwf.org.mx/?145761/1/
37
Satellite image from 2006 showing the expansion of the lake over four decades

38
 On 4 October 2023, heavy rains caused the glacial South Lhonak lake in Sikkim,
a state in northeastern India, to breach its banks, causing a glacial lake outburst
flood in Teesta River.[1]
 The flood reached the Teesta III Dam at Chungthang at midnight, before its gates
could be opened, destroying the dam in minutes.[2]
 Water levels downstream in the River Teesta rose by up to twenty feet, causing
widespread damage.[3]
 The South Lhonak Lake is a moraine-dammed lake fed by the meltwater of
the Lhonak glacier. It was first seen in CORONA satellite images from 1962 as
a supraglacial lake. Landsat MSS images show that it became a separate lake by
1977, with a surface area of 17 hectares. In four decades, as the
glacier retreated 1.9km, the lake swelled in size, covering nearly a hundred
hectares by 2008.[4] It was identified as potentially being at risk of causing glacial
outburst floods, and in 2018 pipelines were carried up by yak and installed to pump
water out of it.[5] Sentinel-1A images from 28 September 2023 showed the lake
covering an area of 167.4 hectares.[6]
 Before the flood, scientists and authorities were working on installing an early
warning system for glacial floods due to the lake.[7]
39
 The number of record high temperature events in the
United States has been increasing, while the number
of record low temperature events has been
decreasing since 1950. The U.S. has also witnessed
increasing numbers of intense rainfall events.

40
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion 41
42
 Came into effect from 1 Jan 1989; several revisions
since then, last one in 2016
 Largest ozone hole over Antarctica – Sep 2006

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol
43
EECl = Effective equivalent
chlorine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol
44
 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is
an intergovernmental body of the United Nations[1][2]
 Mission: to provide the world with objective, scientific information relevant
to understanding the scientific basis of the risk of human-induced[3] climate
change, its natural, political, and economic impacts and risks, and possible
response options.[4]
 Established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and
the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and was later
endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly. Membership is open to
all members of the WMO and UN.[5]
 The IPCC produces reports that contribute to the work of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the main
international treaty on climate change.[6][7] The objective of the UNFCCC is
to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference
with the climate system."[6] The IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report was a
critical scientific input into the UNFCCC's Paris Agreement in 2015.[8]

45
 In effect from 2005 to 2020;
To protect ozone layer by Superseded by Paris
phasing out compounds that Agreement, 2015. Reduce
destroy it GHG emissions

Montreal Protocol, 1989 Kyoto Protocol, 1997

1989 1997
1992 2015
Earth Summit, 1992 Paris Agreement, 2015

United Nations Conference Reduce Greenhouse gas

on Env and Development, Rio emissions and reduce global
de Janeiro, Brazil warming.
 The issues addressed included:
• systematic scrutiny of patterns of production —
particularly the production of toxic components, such
as lead in gasoline, or poisonous waste including
radioactive chemicals
• alternative sources of energy to replace the use of fossil
fuels which delegates linked to global climate change
• reliance on public transportation systems in order to
reduce vehicle emissions, congestion in cities and the
health problems caused by polluted air and smoke
• the growing usage and limited supply of water

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Summit 47
 Two approaches:
◦ Reduce emissions of GHGs (source control)
◦ Capture emissions of GHGs (create sinks)
 Sinks for GHGs are oceans, forests and soils
 Increase forest cover
 Carbon capture and storage methods

48
 The biggest sink for CO2 is vegetation and in the process O2
is generated
◦ IPCC’s current stand is that carbon sequestration by vegetation is
inadequate as the lifetime of vegetation is a few years and
eventually the organic C will be returned to the atm as CO2 when
the plant dies.
◦ They are promoting technological solutions for carbon
sequestration such as subsurface deposits that will last for
millennia
 The threshold for minimum O2 conc in confined spaces
(OSHA) is 19.5%
 Global forest cover = 31% of the land area
 50% of the global forests are in 5 countries: Brazil, Canada,
China, Russian Federation and United States of America
 India’s forest cover (2019) = 21.67%
 West Bengal’s forest cover (2019) = 19%

49
 Forest Cover of India, 2019
Definition
Class Area (sq km) Percentage of (based on
Geographical canopy density)
Area
Very Dense Forest 99,278 3.02 >70%

Moderately Dense 3,08,472 9.39 40 to 70%

Forest
Open Forest 3,04,499 9.26 10 to 40 %
Total Forest Cover 7,12,249 21.67
Scrub 46,297 1.41 <10 %
Non-Forest 25,28,923 76.92 Not in any of the
above
Total Geographical Area 32,87,469 100.00

Forest Survey of India, 2019

50
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Forest_cover_by_state_in_India
#/media/File:Indian_Forest_Co
ver.png 51
 Carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture and sequestration[2] is
the process of capturing emitted carbon dioxide (CO2), transporting it to a storage
site, and depositing it where it will not enter the atmosphere.
 Usually the CO2 is captured from large point sources, such as a chemical
plant or biomass power plant, and then stored in an underground geological
formation. The aim is to prevent the release of CO2 from heavy industry with the
intent of mitigating the effects of climate change.[3]
 Although CO2 has been injected into geological formations for several decades for
various purposes, including enhanced oil recovery, the long-term storage of CO2 is
a relatively new concept.
 CO2 can be captured directly from an industrial source, such as a cement kiln,
using a variety of technologies; including absorption, adsorption, chemical
looping, membrane gas separation or gas hydration.[4][5]
 As of 2020, about one thousandth of global CO2 emissions are captured by CCS.
 Most projects are industrial.[6]

52
 See problems 8.1 to 8.12

53
54