Topic 5

Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

Greenhouse Effect
The land and ocean surface absorb incoming high-energy,
short-wave energy.
The earth’s surface warms as it absorbs energy faster than it
radiates energy back to the atmosphere.
The energy radiated to the atmosphere contains less
energy and has a longer wavelength than the incoming
radiation from the sun.
The change from the short-wave to long-wave radiation
is significant because some atmospheric gases, which are
known as greenhouse gases, absorb much of this long-
wave radiation.
Greenhouse gases include water vapor (H2O), carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs) and nitrous oxide (N2O).
 Greenhouse Effect
The atmospheric’s ability to absorb energy with longer
wavelengths and convert it to heat is known as the
greenhouse effect.
The greenhouse effect makes the atmosphere warmer than it
would be if the outgoing long-wave radiation passed through
the atmosphere in the same way as incoming short-wave
radiation.
The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon that warms
the lower atmosphere by about 350C.
Without the greenhouse effect, earth’s average temperature
would be a chilly -150C.
Natural greenhouse effect is essential to life.
If the average temperature of the earth was below the freezing
point of water, life probably would not have evolved.
The Mauna Loa monitoring station reports the carbon dioxide level in the
atmosphere today as about 380 parts per million compared to 315 ppm in 1958
when modern measurements were initiated. Measurements of air bubbles
trapped in the Greenland ice sheet indicate concentrations of 270 ppm in
preindustrial times.
The annual growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide measured at NOAA’s
Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii jumped by 3.05 parts per million during 2015,
the largest year-to-year increase in 56 years of research.
These are sketches of the graphs produced in the IPCC 2007 report of the
increase in key greenhouse gases. They make clear that most of the increase
of the last thousand years has occurred in the past 200 years. The radiative
forcing of these gases is related to their concentration .
Radiative Forcing
The strength of greenhouse effect is measured by
radiative forcing.
Radiative forcing, measured in units of watts per square
meter, can be thought of as the total amount of
energy(watts) that is absorbed by the gases that lie above a
square meter of Earth’s surface, from ground level to the
top of the atmosphere.
The types and quantities of gases and particles in the
atmosphere determine its radiative forcing.
The ability to absorb long-wave energy often is measured
relative to the quantity that is absorbed by a molecule of
carbon dioxide.
A gas’s ability to absorb energy and its concentration
determine which gases play the most important role in the
greenhouse effect.
Characteristics of greenhouse gases
Gas Radiative Forcing Atmospheric Concentration
Relative to CO2 Lifetime (Units of Measure)

CO2 1 120 years ppm

CH4 11 10.5 years ppb

N 2O 270 12.2 years ppb

CFC-11 3,400 55 years ppt

CFC-12 7,100 116 years ppt

 Carbon dioxide, CO2
CO2 is most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
CO2 also occurs as a natural consequence of respiration.
However, much larger quantities are put into the atmosphere
as waste products from energy production from combustion of
coal, oil, natural gas and biomass for industrial processes,
home heating and cooking.
Deforestation increases level of CO2. and a reduction in the
amount of forest reduces its ability to remove CO2 from the
atmosphere.
Measurement of CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii
shows CO2 level increased from 315 ppm in 1958 to 376 ppm in
2003, an increase of 19 %.
CO2 shows absorption bands only in the IR region.
This, its abundance and its high residence time/atmospheric
lifetime makes CO2 a major contributor to the greenhouse
effect.
CFCs
Are entirely the result of human activity.
Widely used as refrigerant gases in refrigerators
and air-conditioners, as cleaning solvents, as
propellants in aerosol containers and as expanders
in foam products.
Though present in minute amounts, they are
extremely effective absorbers of long-wave
radiation.
CFCs also only show absorption bands in the IR
region , just like CO2
CH4 (methane)
Comes primarily from biological sources,
although some enters the atmosphere from fossil
fuel sources.
Several kinds of bacteria that are particularly
abundant in wetlands and paddy fields release
methane into the atmosphere.
Methane-releasing bacteria has been found in
large numbers in the guts of termites and cattles.
Control of methane sources unlikely since
primary sources involve agricultural practices.
This would be very difficult to change as food
production in most parts of the world need to be
increased not decreased.
N2O (Nitrous Oxide)
Minor component of greenhouse gases.
Enters atmosphere primarily through fossil fuels
and fertilizers.
Can be reduced by more careful use of fossil fuels
and nitrogen-containing fertilizers.
Ozone
In the stratosphere, ozone has a negative greenhouse
effect.
However, in the troposphere, there is slightly positive
greenhouse effect.
OTHER HUMAN INDUCED GHGS
GHGs Activities

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Electronics,

Refrigerants , Industrial
processes

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) By-product of aluminium

smelting, purging agent
for semi-conductor
manufacturing.

Suflur Hexafluoride (SF6) Insulation of switchgear

 GLOBAL WARMING
The gradual increase of the temperature of the earth's lower
atmosphere as a result of the increase in greenhouse gases.
Due to enhanced greenhouse effect
Extra absorption of re-emitted heat due to anthropogenic
emissions of greenhouse gases, including chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs).
Gives warmer temperatures which leads to increased
incidences of severe weather and changes in rainfall patterns.
This leads to climate change.
Because major disagreements arose over the significance of
global warming, the United Nations Environment Programme
established an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) to study the issue and make recommendations.
GLOBAL WARMING
 GLOBAL WARMING
A main activity of the IPCC is to provide at regular
intervals an assessment of the state of knowledge about
climate change.
The first IPCC Assessment Report (1990) helped
established Intergovernmental Negiotating Committee
(INC) for a UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) for the UN General Assembly. The
UNFCCC provides the overall policy framework for
addressing the climate change issue.
The second IPCC Assessment Report (1995) led to the
adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997.
The third (2001) and the fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment
Report.
 GLOBAL WARMING
The IPCC has reached several important conclusions:
1. The average temperature of the Earth has increased 0.3 to
0.60C in the past 100 years. During the same period, sea
level has risen 10 to 25 cm (4-10 inches).
2. A strong correlation exists the increase in temperature
and the concentration of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere.
3. Human activity greatly increases the amount of these
greenhouse gases.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Magnitude and rate of climate change will differ
from region to region.
Some natural ecosystems of human settlements will
be able to withstand or adapt to changes while others
will not.
In addition to changes to weather, there are many
other potential consequences of warmer temperature
and changes in climate.
These include rising sea levels, disruption of the
hydrological cycle, potential health concerns,
changing forests and natural areas and
challenges to agriculture and the food supply
 RISING SEA LEVEL
When water increases in temperature, it expands and
takes up more space and melting of glaciers would
add more water to the oceans.
Rising sea level will erode beaches, low lying areas
and coastal wetlands
Coastal areas will be vulnerable to flooding from
storm surges and intense rainfall.
By 2100, sea level is expected to rise by 15 to 90 cm
A 50 cm sea level rise would double the global
population at risk from storm surges from 45 million
at present to more than 90 million.
Sea level rise of more than 100 cm is associated with
550 ppm CO2.
Disruption of hydrological Cycle
Rising temperatures are expected to result in
increased evaporation which will cause some
areas to become drier while the increased
moisture in the air will result in greater rainfall.
This will cause droughts in some areas and
flooding in others
In areas where evaporation exceeds precipitation,
soil will become drier, lake levels will drop and
rivers will carry less water. This will impair
navigation, hydroelectric power generation and
water quality as well as reduce the supplies of
water available for agricultural, residential and
industrial uses
HEALTH EFFECTS
Climate change will impact human health.
Extremely hot temperatures will increase the number
of fatalities.
Climate change will aggravate air quality problems.
Higher temperature increase ozone at ground level.
Warmer temperatures increase incidences of certain
diseases especially caused by mosquitoes and other
insects.

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d
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CHANGING FORESTS AND NATURAL AREA
Climate change will dramatically alter the geographic
distribution of vegetation types.
These kinds of changes would result in an accelerated
loss of species and an additional challenge to efforts
to protect biological diversity.
Challenges to Agriculture and Food Supply
Climate strongly affects crop yields.
Climate change may enhance food production as
greater concentration of CO2 could increase net
primary production and water use efficiency.
A warmer climate would reduce flexibility in crop
distribution and increase irrigation demands.
Expansion of the range of pests could increase
vulnerability and result in greater use of
pesticides.
 OTHER CHANGES
CORAL BLEACHING
Corals are animals that live in a mutually beneficial
relationship with a type of microalgae called zooxanthellae
The zooxanthellae provide organic carbon (energy) to the
corals, and receive inorganic nutrients (fertiliser) from their
coral hosts
Oceans trap most of the heat from greenhouse gas
emissions, Corals are sensitive to small changes in water
temperatures—long periods of higher temperatures result in
the breakdown of the coral-zooxanthellae relationship, and if
warm for long enough, will lead to coral death
Coral bleaching occurs when the zooxanthellae leave the
corals—without the nutrients provided by the zooxanthellae,
the corals eventually die of starvation and disease
CORAL BLEACHING
 OTHER CHANGES
EXTINCTION OF CERTAIN SPECIES OF FROGS
Unlike reptiles or birds, which have hard-shelled
eggs, amphibians have jelly-like, unshelled eggs that
cannot survive desiccation. Amphibians need moist
climates to reproduce, and this makes them extremely
sensitive to climate change.
At least 110 species of the vibrantly colored
amphibians once lived near streams in the Central and
South American tropics, but about two-thirds
disappeared in the 1980s and 1990s, including the
golden toad.
 FROGS
Global warming has allowed the chytrid fungus --
which kills frogs by growing on their skin and attacking
their epidermis and teeth, as well as by releasing a toxin
-- to thrive in Costa Rica and neighboring countries.
The higher temperatures result in more water vapor in
the air, which in turn forms a cloud cover that leads to
cooler days and warmer nights. These conditions favor
the fungus, which grows and reproduces best at
temperatures between 63 and 77 degrees Fahrenheit.
GOLDEN FROG
Unanticipated Changes
The greatest risks may be those yet to be discovered.
As in the case of ozone depletion, what we don’t
know can hurt us.

Addressing Climate Change

Energy Efficiency
Role of Biomass
Political and Economic Forces
1. FUEL EFFICIENCY
• - Efficient use of fuel conserves the shrinking supplies of
energy resources, thus reducing CO2.
• - To stimulate a move by placing a tax on the amt of
carbon, individuals and corporations release into the
atmosphere.
• - This would increase the cost of fuels and the demand for
fuel efficiency because the cost of fuel would rise. This
would also stimulate the development of alternative fuels
with a lower carbon content and generate funds for
research in many aspects of fuel efficiency and alternative
fuel technologies.
2. ROLE OF BIOMASS
• - Increase amt of CO2 removed from the atmosphere
by increasing biomass (planting more trees) thus
reducing the impact of CO2 released by fossil-fuel
burning.
• - Destruction of vast areas of rainforest in tropical
regions of the world, eliminates ecosystems efficient
at removing CO2 and storing carbon atoms in plant
structures. Grasslands and farms do not remove CO 2
as efficiently as rainforests
3. POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC FORCES
• International agreements to reduce CFCs and CO2
• Air pollution due to poorly controlled burning of
coal, leads to premature deaths, chronic bronchitis,
restricted activity days as well as other respiratory
illness. Fuel efficiency and reducing pollution costs
can be offset by lower health care costs and higher
worker productivity.
• -Wind energy systems are improving rapidly.
3. POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC FORCES
• -Direct conversion of sunlight to electricity is now possible
with photovoltaic cells and solar thermal technologies.
• - Resources and policies to increase investment in
renewables and other longer-term technologies will be
needed. Wind power purchase programs in Denmark and
Germany, the 10,000 rooftops photovoltaic program,
‘green marketing’ campaigns in the U.S and Europe.
• -The incentive for change is reinforced by globalization of
economy, which encourages manufacturers to make
products that have the widest possible market
acceptance. If countries continue to manufacture products
that contain CFCs, they will be excluded from the larger
export markets .
International Agreements on Climate Change
The two most important document directing global attention
towards climate change are the UNFCCC and the Kyoto
Protocol.
UNFCCC came into force in 1994 sets out an overall framework
for intergovermental efforts to tackle the challenge posed by
climate change.
It recognises that the climate system is a shared resource and
that its stability can be affected by industrial and other
emissions of GHGs.
As of September 2005, 189 countries have ratified the
Convention.
Implementation posed a serious challenge, so new round of
talks had to be launched to decide on stronger and more
detailed commitments for industralised countries – Kyoto
Protocol.
 UNFCCC
Under the convention, governments:
gather and share information on GHG emissions, national
policies and best practices.
launch national strategies for addressing GHG and adapting
to expected impacts, including the provision of financial
and technological support to developing countries.
cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of
climate change.
Malaysia ratified UNFCCC in 1994.
KYOTO Protocol
Sets targets for industralised countries. Known as
Annex 1 Parties to reduce their overall emissions of
GHGs by at least 5% below their 1990 emission
levels during 2008-2012.
Has more ‘teeth’ to ensure compliance among
Annex 1 Parties.
Has mechanisms to assist Annex 1 Parties to cut
their emissions –joint implementation, clean
development mechanism and emissions trading.
Introduced the clean development mechanism that
allows developing countries to achieve their
sustainable development goals.
Kyoto Protocol – Malay Mail (29th Nov 2007)
According to UN, carbon emissions in Malaysia have
increased by 221% (2004) since 1990.
Highest growth rate among the world top polluters (top
30).
With 0.4% of the world’s population, Malaysians account
for 0.6% global emissions.
Kyoto Protocol – Star (30th Nov 2007)
Each Malaysian discharge 7.5 tonnes of CO2 in 2004.
Chinese – 3.8 tonnes
French – 6 tonnes
Egyptians – 2.3 tonnes
Americans – 20.6 tonnes
Green Countries and Environmental
Performance Index (EPI)
A global report card on nations doing the most , and the least,
to clean up the environment.
Still nowhere near as accurate a measure of national
performance as GNP or GDP.
Aims to be a comprehensive assessment of the world’s
environmental challenges and how individual countries are
responding to them.
It is an effort to boil all activities of a nation that relate to the
environment down to a simple metric that runs from 100 (the
greenest) down to zero (the least green).
The index includes the best available data in 25 critical
categories, from fisheries to carbon emissions , forests to
water quality, assessment the hospitality of a nation’s
environment to humans, and plants and animals.
Overall Country’s EPI ranking
Rank Country Score
1 Switzerland 95.5
2 Sweden 93.1
3 Norway 93.1
4 Finland 91.4
5 Costa Rica 90.5
6 Austria 89.4
7 New Zealand 88.9
8 Latvia 88.8
9 Colombia 88.3
Overall Country’s EPI ranking
Rank Country Score
10 France 87.8
13 Germany 86.3
21 Japan 84.5
26 Malaysia 84.0
35 Brazil 82.7
39 U.S 81.0
102 Indonesia
105 China
 Climate Change in Malaysia
In Malaysia, forecasts have been made based on
climate modelling using 14 Global Climate Models
(GCMs) which show that Malaysia could experience
temperature changes from +0.70C to 2.60C and
precipitation changes from -30% to +30%. The impact
of climate change was indentified in several sectors in
Malaysia:
1. Agriculture
2. Water Resources
3. Public Health
4. Coastal Resources
5. Forestry
6. Energy Sector
How Climate Change Affects The Malaysian
Agriculture Industry
Increase in rainfall is bad for rubber but good for oil
palm unless flooding.
273, 000 ha of land or 15% of current rubber land
could be affected, without supporting mechanisms.
Rise in sea level could force the abandoning of low-
lying planted areas e.g plantations close to the coast
like in Kelantan could be exposed to floods.
Decreases in rainfall could affect crops that need wet
conditions e.g rice as it makes it impossible to sustain
the flooded rice ecosystem.
How Climate Change Affects The Malaysian
Agriculture Industry
Rice grain yields decline by 9% to 10% for each 1
degree celsius rise.
With more rains, crops could be exposed to diseases
and fungus thus affecting yield.
Climate changes affects biodiversity; the much-loved
petai may be lost when forests suffer from changes in
rainfall and temperature.
 How Climate Change Affects The Malaysian
Water Resources
With projected increases in temperature in
temperature and changes in precipitation, there could
be two possible scenarios.
1. Flood intensity and frequency could increase with a
higher storm magnitude. More floods essentially
mean destruction of properties and infrastructure,
and loss of livelihoods in critical areas.
2. Malaysia could experience lower rainfalls.That could
affect the availability of water thus placing a strain on
households, the agriculture sector and industries.
How Climate Change Affects The Malaysian Forestry
Forests are important to an ecosystem because of two
very unique features: as a reservoir for carbon,
through a cycle commonly known as carbon sinks;
and as an integral part of the global biological system.
While climate change seems to have lesser impact on
forests compared to the potential losses from land use
change, the government is seriously studying the
extent to which forests can adapt to the projected
changes.
 How Climate Change Affects The Malaysian
Coastal Resources
Loss of agricultural production from eroded
/inundated lands.
Displacement of flood victims with associated
disruption of business/economic activities.
Loss of fisheries production due to mangrove loss. As
mangroves are home to diverse flora and fauna, these
are under threat of destruction.
Interruption of port operation.
Popular tourists spots like Pangkor and Langkawi
Islands need to be protected against sea level rise.
How Climate Change Affects The Malaysian
Public Health
Possibility of increase in sea level would lead to a
corresponding rise in coastal vectors with more
breeding grounds as there will be more seas
covered with brackish water.
Deforestation, without proper and sound land
practice , could open more breeding areas, thus
leading to higher incidence of malaria.
Dengue which has become an urban phenomenon
can become more serious if rainfall increased to a
level that raises the transmission opportunities for
the vectors.
 How Climate Change Affects The Malaysian Public Health
El Nino is a weather phenomenon resulting
from temperature changes in the Pacific
currents, resulting in changes in the weather
around the world can bring about haze due to
prolonged droughts which contribute to forest
fires. Haze and smoke can lead to respiratory-
related health problems like asthma, bronchitis
as well as cardiovascular problems with
vulnerable groups like the very young and those
with pre-existing problems.
How Climate Change Affects The Malaysian Public Health

Normal Conditions El Nino

In normal years, the cold water in the eastern Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru and Equador is blown
west by trade winds. As it makes its way toward Australia, it is warmed by the tropical sun. By the time it
gets to the western Pacific, it is a few degrees warmer. The water warms the air above it, the air rises and
creates clouds that bring rain. During El Niño, the trade winds are weaker, the sea surface temperatures
are warmer over the equatorial east Pacific, and the rains shift from the western to the central Pacific.
El-NINO
How Climate Change Affects The Malaysian Public Health
Other diseases, common to Malaysia could spread wider due to
temperature and humidity rise include arboviral diseases like
viral encephalitis (Viral encephalitis is an inflammation of
the brain caused by a virus. The major risk is permanent brain
damage. Children aged one year or less and adults aged 55
years and over are at increased risk of life threatening
complications). This happens as increase in temperature
shortens the reproductive cycle.
Another example is Nipah virus (1998-1999) which resulted in
more than 100 human fatalities. The flying fox (Pteropus
hypomelanus; the fruit bat) is a likely reservoir of this virus.
The outbreak in Malaysia was controlled through the culling of
>1 million pigs.
Sector
(Oil and Gas Sector)
Climate Change
Rise in sea level
Higher rainfall (flooding)
Increase in tropical storms
Increase in air & water
temperature
Impact
Offshore boat landing facilities will be submerged.
Coastal facilities will be flooded
Loading and unloading activities at the port will be
interrupted
The port cannot function for its intended purpose
Operation of coastal facilities will be affected
Overflow of wastewater treatment
Soil and ground water pollution.
An increase in late cargo deliveries
Crew changeovers at the offshore terminals will be
delayed.
Reduced efficiency of cooling water systems
Higher make-up water requirement
More fuel consumption in transport
How Climate Change Affects The Malaysian
Energy Sector
(Electricity Sector)

Climate Change Impact

For every 10C rise in ambient air Loss in gas turbine power output by 2%
temperature Loss of 2% power output of hydro
turbine

For every 10C rise in water air Loss of 8% power output of steam
temperature turbine.

1m rise in sea level Erosion of beaches fronting power

station
Corrosion