Zeke’s Hardware Store sells furnace filters.

The cost to place an order to the distributor is $24 and the annual
hold a filter in stock is $5. The average demand per week for the filters is 30 units with a standard deviation o
units, and the store operates 50 weeks per year. The weekly demand for filters has the probability distribution
shown on the left below. The delivery lead time from the distributor is uncertain and has the probability distrib
shown on the right below. Suppose Zeke wants to use a P system with EOQ in the Q system and a cycle-ser
level of 95 percent. What is the appropriate value for T and the associated annual cost of the system? (Calcu
and Safety Stock by using the maximum probability Lead Time.)

Lower Range Lead

Demand Probability Probability
Probability Time(wks)
18 0.1 0 1 0.1
22 0.25 0.1 2 0.15
26 0.15 0.35 3 0.3
30 0.3 0.5 4 0.2
32 0.1 0.8 5 0.15
36 0.1 0.9 6 0.1

The cost to place an order to the distributor $ 24.00

The annual cost to hold a filter in stock $ 5.00
The average demand per week for the filter 30 units
The store operates 50 weeks
Use a P system with P = 4 weeks
Cycle-service level of 95%
Standard deviation of demand 5 units

T= 346.5
vg. Demand During Protection Interval = 325
The Safety Stock = 22
C= $ 709.40

Demand During Protection Interval

70 120.0%

60 100.0%
100.0%
50
80.0%
73.7%
40
60.0%
30 58
40.0%
20
25 20.0%
10
1112.6%
0 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 1.1% 0.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Frequency Cumulative Percentage

 Lower Range
Demand Probability
Probability D*P D^2 D^2*P
18 0.1 0 1.8 324 32.4
22 0.25 0.1 5.5 484 121
26 0.15 0.35 3.9 676 101.4
30 0.3 0.5 9 900 270
32 0.1 0.8 3.2 1024 102.4
36 0.1 0.9 3.6 1296 129.6
sum 27 756.8
σd 5.27257053059
tor is $24 and the annual cost to Lower Range Lower Range
Demand
ith a standard deviation of 5 Probability Probability
e probability distribution
has the probability distribution 0 18 0
Q system and a cycle-service 0.1 22 0.1
ost of the system? (Calculate T 0.35 26 0.25
0.5 30 0.55
0.8 32 0.75
0.9 36 0.9
Lower Range
Probability
0
Lower Bound 90 min(demand)*min(Protection Interval)
0.1
0.25
Upper Bound 360 Max(demand)*Max(Protection Interval
0.55
0.75
0.9 Range 270 Upper Bound - Lower Bound
Bins 10 (Parameters)
Bin Range 27 Range/Bins (無條件進位)

Bins Demand Frequency

90 90 0
117 103.5 0
144 130.5 0
0 171 157.5 0
0 198 184.5 0
0 225 211.5 0
0 252 238.5 0
0 279 265.5 1
0 306 292.5 11
0 333 319.5 58
120.0%
0 360 346.5 25
0 Total 95
100.0%
100.0% 0 Bins Bin Range is set by ??
346.5 Demand (current - previous) / 2 + previous ->average demand
80.0%
73.7% sum 346.5 Frequency the number of samples occurred in the Bins
60.0% Cumulative% Cumulative percentage of frequency
58 Frequency is an array-formula, select the corresponding table and then press"Ctrl+
40.0% VLOOKUP最後一個參數 = 欲回傳之欄位索引
25
EX:
20.0%
.6% VLOOKUP(U4,P4:Q8,2) -->從P4:Q8中搜尋U4，並回傳P4:Q8的第二欄
0.0% (即Protection Interval欄)
10 11
 Random Number
Protection Interval(P+LT)
No.
Lead Time Period 1 Period 2
5 1 0.9938 0.5792 0.5604
6 2 0.8887 0.8950 0.2123
7 3 0.4275 0.7129 0.2700
8 4 0.2318 0.2402 0.3034
9 5 0.6714 0.0960 0.6527
10 6 0.5496 0.6889 0.6353
7 0.4873 0.3348 0.9486
8 0.7324 0.5785 0.8394
9 0.2916 0.2838 0.3442
min(demand)*min(Protection Interval)
10 0.1102 0.3624 0.2933
11 0.1922 0.8801 0.3705
Max(demand)*Max(Protection Interval)
12 0.6682 0.1646 0.1872
13 0.6875 0.5248 0.2822
Bound - Lower Bound 14 0.0943 0.0516 0.9764
meters) 15 0.6061 0.9023 0.9905
/Bins (無條件進位) 16 0.6672 0.3001 0.0810
17 0.8774 0.3112 0.1157
18 0.7697 0.1667 0.3058
Cumulative Percentage
19 0.5877 0.2673 0.9108
0.0% 0 20 0.7570 0.8613 0.5413
0.0% 0 21 0.1680 0.6887 0.7092
0.0% 0 22 0.4505 0.4683 0.7653
0.0% 0 0 23 0.3228 0.8626 0.1182
0.0% 0 0 24 0.6233 0.9007 0.1471
0.0% 0 0 25 0.3343 0.0925 0.1234
0.0% 0 0 26 0.9150 0.3071 0.5995
1.1% 0 0 27 0.3990 0.6128 0.6208
12.6% 0 0 28 0.2844 0.1821 0.8506
73.7% 0 0 29 0.3099 0.5487 0.0942
100.0% 1 0 30 0.3490 0.7215 0.0174
0 31 0.4921 0.7192 0.4640
?? 0 32 0.1758 0.2910 0.8762
2 + previous ->average demand 1 33 0.0657 0.3430 0.8929
es occurred in the Bins 34 0.6857 0.8152 0.6825
ge of frequency 35 0.3251 0.6431 0.1821
orresponding table and then press"Ctrl+Shift+Enter" 36 0.8124 0.4799 0.7179
傳之欄位索引 37 0.9257 0.4216 0.9555
38 0.2366 0.4842 0.0520
Q8中搜尋U4，並回傳P4:Q8的第二欄位 39 0.5731 0.8187 0.0086
40 0.4586 0.2473 0.3312
41 0.9897 0.4605 0.1970
42 0.7216 0.0928 0.0255
43 0.3967 0.2763 0.6686
44 0.3245 0.2959 0.8530
45 0.1007 0.9327 0.2379
46 0.8350 0.8137 0.1376
47 0.0177 0.7049 0.0873
48 0.6513 0.7570 0.9510
49 0.1566 0.0515 0.4087
50 0.5697 0.3912 0.5619
51 0.0086 0.0961 0.3053
52 0.5744 0.5474 0.0834
53 0.5758 0.6826 0.2757
54
0.9058 0.5571 0.0743
55 0.4556 0.1584 0.2695
56 0.4927 0.7697 0.2290
57 0.5252 0.8615 0.9304
58 0.2118 0.6083 0.9060
59 0.3472 0.2868 0.3772
60 0.2445 0.8948 0.8834
61 0.0664 0.9672 0.4444
62 0.2466 0.0775 0.8138
63 0.5900 0.9985 0.9751
64 0.6235 0.4242 0.2844
65 0.7563 0.8249 0.9449
66 0.8043 0.6040 0.5465
67 0.9883 0.8395 0.6170
68 0.3327 0.2331 0.7357
69 0.9035 0.5099 0.3425
70 0.5964 0.1829 0.3067
71 0.5654 0.9195 0.3816
72 0.4218 0.7472 0.9158
73 0.5672 0.6163 0.8073
74 0.8116 0.6994 0.5434
75 0.7740 0.2130 0.4807
76 0.6075 0.4870 0.6616
77 0.0487 0.1236 0.5983
78 0.9868 0.0375 0.0478
79 0.3141 0.3667 0.5491
80 0.0979 0.2956 0.3881
81 0.8902 0.9930 0.0243
82 0.0750 0.0543 0.8979
83 0.8410 0.1893 0.5943
84 0.5936 0.4726 0.6440
85 0.4615 0.2653 0.8907
86 0.6211 0.3217 0.1457
87 0.8690 0.5399 0.4961
88 0.0286 0.0885 0.9686
89 0.6713 0.5804 0.6990
90 0.8656 0.6129 0.0809
91 0.7979 0.1364 0.1280
 92 0.2140 0.4682 0.4766
93 0.2548 0.7022 0.2251
94 0.0408 0.5880 0.4579
95 0.8204 0.7851 0.1915
96 0.8968 0.3462 0.1806
97 0.6349 0.1667 0.2245
98 0.3012 0.4442 0.8261
99 0.2418 0.8957 0.3748
100 0.6123 0.8891 0.8594
Random Numbers (Demand per period in protection interval)
Period Period Period
Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Period 6 Period 7 Period 8 Period 9 10 11 12
0.0167 0.9158 0.1119 0.2669 0.5870 0.8779 0.2204 0.8016 0.2401 0.4011
0.6939 0.6078 0.7017 0.8209 0.8344 0.9732 0.1727 0.6366 0.7965 0.1020
0.3970 0.6949 0.3966 0.0824 0.4520 0.9046 0.0705 0.8099 0.7290 0.5386
0.2727 0.1108 0.9433 0.4375 0.1019 0.8183 0.0662 0.9709 0.9252 0.2085
0.7226 0.9404 0.1977 0.7687 0.1105 0.5390 0.3613 0.5427 0.1408 0.3625
0.3514 0.9484 0.0103 0.4327 0.0768 0.4116 0.8015 0.1659 0.7651 0.0585
0.8163 0.6534 0.8507 0.1924 0.6985 0.7297 0.0266 0.6121 0.4341 0.4534
0.9493 0.2631 0.7762 0.4620 0.3738 0.8700 0.8390 0.3479 0.4549 0.7239
0.7796 0.2817 0.9732 0.0859 0.6939 0.4119 0.7930 0.6236 0.7832 0.8865
0.9170 0.4396 0.3409 0.3786 0.9232 0.0671 0.8852 0.9683 0.0194 0.1886
0.2841 0.4624 0.2993 0.7238 0.4839 0.7256 0.7626 0.2774 0.3395 0.8041
0.0970 0.8674 0.4332 0.0137 0.0103 0.0600 0.7088 0.2070 0.3599 0.0378
0.7589 0.1271 0.6907 0.6254 0.9923 0.5080 0.1787 0.2245 0.7354 0.2664
0.9130 0.5654 0.2302 0.3537 0.0979 0.6317 0.0273 0.9768 0.9561 0.0292
0.4762 0.4010 0.6067 0.9870 0.5467 0.7668 0.9993 0.7427 0.1271 0.4770
0.6481 0.5581 0.8413 0.0964 0.9016 0.8783 0.7570 0.3660 0.7156 0.6896
0.2809 0.1624 0.9997 0.0503 0.1541 0.5460 0.2286 0.0242 0.0134 0.9180
0.5724 0.2659 0.3103 0.1501 0.5769 0.7745 0.3887 0.5089 0.3338 0.3084
0.7730 0.4681 0.0408 0.1779 0.5540 0.6119 0.6289 0.5158 0.4476 0.6596
0.3090 0.2052 0.2875 0.7127 0.9496 0.5646 0.9877 0.9542 0.5575 0.9498
0.9696 0.5253 0.0755 0.3334 0.6762 0.5671 0.3580 0.2963 0.1554 0.4509
0.1214 0.0654 0.2877 0.3536 0.1196 0.0734 0.6085 0.6806 0.3452 0.6590
0.2213 0.5684 0.6851 0.8483 0.3496 0.7582 0.5309 0.2149 0.3652 0.3154
0.1161 0.3040 0.9415 0.8977 0.4624 0.8248 0.3302 0.4476 0.7083 0.3922
0.6430 0.6808 0.0320 0.9570 0.9112 0.2075 0.6630 0.3137 0.4441 0.6402
0.0298 0.6016 0.8951 0.4061 0.0888 0.6817 0.0496 0.9203 0.3114 0.4565
0.2215 0.8935 0.7136 0.4193 0.0693 0.3722 0.3313 0.8623 0.6153 0.5272
0.5282 0.7996 0.3455 0.2881 0.8770 0.8161 0.5662 0.7700 0.4288 0.8369
0.4801 0.5765 0.3969 0.7648 0.2885 0.5177 0.9705 0.1462 0.2604 0.0962
0.6435 0.4196 0.0583 0.0377 0.7506 0.4080 0.8017 0.9455 0.1711 0.2680
0.0688 0.3199 0.1408 0.5367 0.4405 0.0446 0.1133 0.7689 0.1535 0.0442
0.8268 0.8050 0.4684 0.6215 0.9206 0.4684 0.0060 0.2563 0.0272 0.4647
0.0806 0.9723 0.1588 0.1979 0.4667 0.0804 0.2179 0.4905 0.8533 0.7431
0.7257 0.4191 0.3568 0.3864 0.1614 0.2272 0.4787 0.7811 0.8183 0.5386
0.0217 0.7048 0.2452 0.4142 0.9430 0.0469 0.9582 0.4579 0.2233 0.6036
0.6230 0.0229 0.8272 0.0217 0.7698 0.0929 0.8939 0.3144 0.2700 0.4293
0.1844 0.9723 0.9737 0.3719 0.0406 0.6400 0.6254 0.0924 0.6526 0.1234
0.6442 0.9489 0.8420 0.9167 0.3907 0.4109 0.6687 0.7527 0.3096 0.4024
0.0751 0.4037 0.6281 0.7837 0.4844 0.9200 0.2420 0.1238 0.6072 0.8449
0.9068 0.6449 0.8213 0.1128 0.8252 0.5414 0.3406 0.7226 0.8293 0.8187
0.9187 0.1277 0.2072 0.6668 0.5847 0.2146 0.2598 0.2887 0.8583 0.3351
0.6749 0.5451 0.8462 0.8432 0.4345 0.6942 0.8781 0.7752 0.5219 0.1332
0.8992 0.7983 0.2299 0.5054 0.5250 0.8357 0.8326 0.3367 0.6056 0.0776
0.0198 0.9374 0.0419 0.2187 0.5374 0.1211 0.4009 0.1889 0.8595 0.5978
0.7872 0.8365 0.8358 0.2812 0.0691 0.5436 0.3910 0.1334 0.6050 0.3926
0.6983 0.9829 0.2625 0.1541 0.5571 0.9662 0.7574 0.5208 0.2947 0.1583
0.9313 0.1674 0.5734 0.5951 0.7939 0.8111 0.6313 0.7612 0.5978 0.2956
0.7688 0.9806 0.1154 0.7366 0.9806 0.0938 0.5814 0.8539 0.9788 0.6073
0.4455 0.3590 0.1359 0.0468 0.6406 0.8182 0.6149 0.6855 0.0732 0.8091
0.8051 0.4433 0.1837 0.0195 0.3138 0.3664 0.4243 0.0520 0.9426 0.7032
0.8505 0.5661 0.4636 0.7438 0.0353 0.1007 0.3734 0.5902 0.7267 0.0973
0.4011 0.8299 0.5866 0.9175 0.0819 0.5769 0.1553 0.3443 0.8928 0.6714
0.0433 0.6933 0.5771 0.3197 0.1434 0.8122 0.6140 0.2311 0.6563 0.0554

0.4546 0.6676 0.2889 0.7563 0.0390 0.2856 0.6219 0.3055 0.1988 0.5555
0.5887 0.8016 0.4543 0.0575 0.9058 0.5371 0.3275 0.1665 0.0904 0.0500
0.4400 0.7393 0.9970 0.4795 0.5635 0.1634 0.5861 0.7910 0.7304 0.5943
0.2124 0.7754 0.6831 0.9681 0.8251 0.7841 0.9388 0.3466 0.4553 0.7018
0.4494 0.8881 0.8209 0.3586 0.1237 0.8953 0.5789 0.1990 0.0623 0.1153
0.3783 0.9586 0.7674 0.1149 0.2679 0.0087 0.7580 0.9502 0.9607 0.8613
0.5511 0.5606 0.1197 0.7513 0.5784 0.7184 0.7346 0.0420 0.9527 0.6788
0.4185 0.2457 0.1018 0.9775 0.5496 0.2633 0.7021 0.1242 0.7951 0.3479
0.7972 0.1413 0.1994 0.8873 0.5206 0.8997 0.4163 0.9076 0.9927 0.3454
0.7846 0.5466 0.3917 0.1603 0.6182 0.8927 0.1450 0.4701 0.5723 0.2125
0.0729 0.9500 0.8373 0.2894 0.2452 0.0008 0.7803 0.8427 0.4355 0.5759
0.3627 0.7513 0.6869 0.6673 0.7367 0.0186 0.9351 0.1752 0.9295 0.8052
0.5749 0.4206 0.7873 0.2962 0.2903 0.9742 0.4769 0.9606 0.0758 0.8942
0.8643 0.2997 0.5566 0.3504 0.2237 0.1253 0.8043 0.5024 0.3971 0.1648
0.9394 0.4048 0.4006 0.9421 0.9471 0.8438 0.7589 0.4136 0.9270 0.7389
0.7021 0.1613 0.2634 0.9468 0.2280 0.8203 0.3504 0.1226 0.1188 0.3531
0.8605 0.0156 0.9374 0.1082 0.0597 0.2682 0.4064 0.3959 0.1680 0.6397
0.0369 0.8875 0.1860 0.1861 0.5510 0.2664 0.3908 0.4250 0.3889 0.1481
0.0841 0.8921 0.7483 0.3557 0.1056 0.0345 0.7636 0.2117 0.4229 0.5166
0.8270 0.9191 0.3864 0.9564 0.6066 0.3986 0.1768 0.8000 0.8611 0.2091
0.7093 0.6899 0.5744 0.0081 0.1925 0.1594 0.5381 0.4853 0.6847 0.6224
0.2080 0.1744 0.5536 0.9385 0.7539 0.6089 0.7656 0.7039 0.3212 0.0070
0.2011 0.2235 0.2140 0.5394 0.4218 0.2028 0.9666 0.1058 0.2407 0.7100
0.4906 0.9585 0.1184 0.3876 0.9356 0.9932 0.9462 0.0052 0.2036 0.6439
0.8071 0.5299 0.7482 0.3292 0.6300 0.7596 0.8810 0.4583 0.7426 0.9506
0.9960 0.9916 0.4096 0.6450 0.2371 0.0988 0.3580 0.8167 0.8318 0.7292
0.3896 0.6809 0.2687 0.3734 0.7036 0.2670 0.3966 0.7303 0.8622 0.9629
0.7432 0.6098 0.0256 0.2130 0.7553 0.9146 0.0039 0.4541 0.2186 0.5307
0.6252 0.0392 0.6928 0.0587 0.8864 0.9227 0.9197 0.7143 0.9068 0.1297
0.6824 0.3220 0.4631 0.2643 0.1162 0.3013 0.4386 0.8761 0.8877 0.4264
0.9435 0.0471 0.3114 0.2767 0.1421 0.0809 0.9819 0.7710 0.9256 0.6641
0.6347 0.3682 0.7615 0.5503 0.4998 0.8876 0.6913 0.7578 0.5190 0.3503
0.1961 0.8307 0.0965 0.4282 0.8435 0.7334 0.4977 0.9438 0.6111 0.7106
0.3738 0.7888 0.0760 0.6040 0.3048 0.7661 0.3089 0.0557 0.8437 0.4993
0.6004 0.1051 0.6813 0.4706 0.0718 0.9704 0.4092 0.2774 0.8903 0.4168
0.9603 0.0445 0.4783 0.0525 0.3464 0.2192 0.8718 0.1921 0.5513 0.2192
0.7500 0.7337 0.3001 0.6233 0.8304 0.4213 0.1823 0.7880 0.7172 0.9206
0.1704 0.3573 0.2619 0.8156 0.4543 0.6162 0.5009 0.4613 0.7974 0.5037
0.1345 0.1007 0.9330 0.3846 0.9726 0.6439 0.1275 0.3568 0.0938 0.1787
0.6010 0.2571 0.9439 0.3578 0.6506 0.6449 0.6349 0.7651 0.1984 0.3804
0.8879 0.0902 0.7371 0.2691 0.6913 0.6773 0.2647 0.8843 0.6566 0.3110
0.6263 0.6205 0.8022 0.0016 0.3529 0.9997 0.1130 0.5579 0.5521 0.3079
0.5585 0.0955 0.3076 0.3608 0.5986 0.6251 0.6369 0.8351 0.8658 0.5632
0.1314 0.4220 0.9518 0.9823 0.8929 0.7812 0.0457 0.9880 0.2764 0.7744
0.4738 0.6641 0.7754 0.7339 0.1915 0.0761 0.2932 0.9842 0.8751 0.5551
0.4141 0.8965 0.2394 0.0585 0.7558 0.2737 0.8293 0.0248 0.3766 0.8913
0.7370 0.2239 0.3107 0.4854 0.1675 0.7056 0.5129 0.9570 0.2647 0.1419
 Simulation (Demand per period in protectio

Protection Interval(# Periods) Period1 Period2 Period3 Period4 Period5

Inventory Cycle
1 10 30 30 18 36 22
2 9 32 22 30 30 30
3 7 30 22 26 30 26
4 6 22 22 22 22 36
5 8 18 30 30 36 22
6 7 30 30 26 36 18
7 7 22 36 32 30 32
8 8 30 32 36 22 30
9 7 22 22 30 22 36
10 6 26 22 36 26 22
11 6 32 26 22 26 22
12 8 22 22 18 32 26
13 8 30 22 30 22 30
14 5 18 36 36 30 22
15 8 36 36 26 26 30
16 8 22 18 30 30 32
17 9 22 22 22 22 36
18 9 22 22 30 22 22
19 8 22 36 30 26 18
20 9 32 30 22 22 22
21 6 30 30 36 30 18
22 7 26 30 22 18 22
23 7 32 22 22 30 30
24 8 36 22 22 22 36
25 7 18 22 30 30 18
26 10 22 30 18 30 32
27 7 30 30 22 32 30
28 7 22 32 30 30 22
29 7 30 18 26 30 26
30 7 30 18 30 26 18
31 7 30 26 18 22 22
32 6 22 32 32 32 26
33 5 22 32 18 36 22
34 8 32 30 30 26 26
35 7 30 22 18 30 22
36 9 26 30 30 18 32
37 10 26 36 22 36 36
38 6 26 18 30 36 32
39 8 32 18 18 26 30
40 7 22 22 36 30 32
41 10 26 22 36 22 22
42 8 18 18 30 30 32
43 7 22 30 32 30 22
44 7 22 32 18 36 18
45 6 36 22 30 32 32
46 9 32 22 30 36 22
47 5 30 18 36 22 30
48 8 30 36 30 36 22
49 6 18 26 26 26 22
50 8 26 30 32 26 22
51 5 18 22 32 30 26
52 8 30 18 26 32 30
53 8 30 22 18 30 30
10 30 18 26 30 22
54
55 7 22 22 30 32 26
56 7 30 22 26 30 36
57 7 32 36 22 30 30
58 6 30 36 26 32 32
59 7 22 26 26 36 30
60 6 32 32 30 30 22
61 5 36 26 26 22 22
62 6 18 32 30 22 22
63 8 36 36 30 30 26
64 8 26 22 18 36 32
65 9 32 36 26 30 30
66 9 30 30 30 26 30
67 10 32 30 32 22 30
68 7 22 30 36 26 26
69 10 30 22 30 22 22
70 8 22 22 32 18 36
71 8 36 26 18 32 22
72 7 30 36 18 32 30
73 8 30 32 32 36 26
74 9 30 30 30 30 30
75 9 22 26 22 22 30
76 8 26 30 22 22 22
77 5 22 30 26 36 22
78 10 18 18 32 30 30
79 7 26 30 36 36 26
80 5 22 26 26 30 22
81 9 36 18 30 30 18
82 5 18 32 30 18 30
83 9 22 30 30 22 26
84 8 26 30 36 18 22
85 7 22 32 30 26 30
86 8 22 22 22 32 18
87 9 30 26 26 30 18
88 5 18 36 30 22 30
89 8 30 30 36 18 26
90 9 30 18 30 30 22
91 9 22 22 22 26 22
 92 6 26 26 22 22 36
93 7 30 22 30 22 36
94 5 30 26 32 18 30
95 9 30 22 30 30 32
96 9 22 22 30 18 22
97 8 22 22 22 26 36
98 7 26 32 26 30 30
99 6 32 26 26 32 22
100 8 32 32 30 22 22
emand per period in protection interval)

Period6 Period7 Period8 Period9 Period10 Period11 Period12 Total during protection interval
22 30 32 22 32 22 26 322
32 32 36 22 30 30 22 348
18 26 36 18 32 30 30 324
26 22 32 18 36 36 22 316
30 22 30 26 30 22 26 322
26 18 26 32 22 30 18 312
22 30 30 18 30 26 26 334
26 26 32 32 22 26 30 344
18 30 26 30 30 30 32 328
26 36 18 32 36 18 22 320
30 26 30 30 22 22 32 320
18 18 18 30 22 26 18 270
30 36 30 22 22 30 22 326
26 18 30 18 36 36 18 324
36 30 30 36 30 22 26 364
18 36 32 30 26 30 30 334
18 22 30 22 18 18 36 288
22 30 30 26 30 22 22 300
22 30 30 30 30 26 30 330
30 36 30 36 36 30 36 362
22 30 30 26 22 22 26 322
26 22 18 30 30 22 30 296
32 22 30 30 22 26 22 320
32 26 32 22 26 30 26 332
36 36 22 30 22 26 30 320
26 18 30 18 36 22 26 308
26 18 26 22 32 30 30 328
22 32 32 30 30 26 32 340
30 22 30 36 22 22 18 310
18 30 26 32 36 22 22 308
30 26 18 22 30 22 18 284
30 36 26 18 22 18 26 320
22 26 18 22 26 32 30 306
26 22 22 26 30 32 30 332
26 36 18 36 26 22 30 316
18 30 18 32 22 22 26 304
26 18 30 30 18 30 22 330
36 26 26 30 30 22 26 338
30 26 36 22 22 30 32 322
22 32 30 22 30 32 32 342
30 30 22 22 22 32 22 308
32 26 30 32 30 30 22 330
30 30 32 32 22 30 18 330
22 30 22 26 22 32 30 310
22 18 30 26 22 30 26 326
22 30 36 30 30 22 22 334
30 30 32 30 30 30 22 340
30 36 18 30 32 36 30 366
18 30 32 30 30 18 32 308
18 22 26 26 18 36 30 312
30 18 22 26 30 30 18 302
36 18 30 22 22 32 30 326
22 22 32 30 22 30 18 306
30 18 22 30 22 22 30 300
18 36 30 22 22 18 18 296
26 30 22 30 30 30 30 342
36 32 30 36 22 26 30 362
26 22 32 30 22 18 22 328
22 22 18 30 36 36 32 336
30 30 30 30 18 36 30 350
36 30 22 30 22 30 22 324
32 30 32 26 36 36 22 338
22 30 32 22 26 30 22 342
22 22 18 30 32 26 30 314
30 30 18 36 22 36 32 358
22 22 36 26 36 18 32 338
26 22 22 32 30 26 22 326
36 36 32 30 26 36 30 366
36 22 32 26 22 22 26 312
22 18 22 26 26 22 30 296
22 30 22 26 26 26 22 308
26 22 18 30 22 26 30 320
36 30 26 22 30 32 22 354
18 22 22 30 26 30 30 328
36 30 30 30 30 22 18 318
30 26 22 36 22 22 30 310
26 36 36 36 18 22 30 340
22 30 30 32 26 30 36 334
30 22 18 26 32 32 30 344
26 30 22 26 30 32 36 328
22 30 36 18 26 22 30 316
18 32 36 36 30 36 22 338
22 22 22 26 32 32 26 312
22 22 18 36 30 36 30 326
30 26 32 30 30 30 26 344
26 32 30 26 36 30 30 326
30 22 30 22 18 32 26 310
26 18 36 26 22 32 26 322
18 22 22 32 22 30 22 308
30 32 26 22 30 30 36 336
32 26 30 30 26 30 30 318
26 36 30 22 26 18 22 312
26 30 30 30 30 22 26 334
22 30 30 22 32 30 22 324
18 26 36 22 30 30 22 328
26 30 30 30 32 32 30 324
36 32 30 18 36 22 30 332
30 22 18 22 36 32 30 334
18 30 22 32 18 26 32 316
26 22 30 30 36 22 22 326
Average Demand During Protection Interval = 325
Zeke’s Hardware Store sells furnace filters. The cost to place an order to the distributor is $24 and the annual
filter in stock is $5. The average demand per week for the filters is 30 units, and the store operates 50 weeks p
weekly demand for filters has the probability distribution shown on the left below. The delivery lead time from
distributor is uncertain and has the probability distribution shown on the right below. Suppose Zeke wants to u
system for the filters. Initial inventory is 200 units. If the stockout cost is $7 per unit, what is the expected co
using the Q system?

Lower Range Lead

Demand Probability
Probability Time(wks)
18 0.1 0 1
22 0.25 0.1 2
26 0.15 0.35 3
30 0.3 0.5 4
32 0.1 0.8 5
36 0.1 0.9 6
Average Demand 30 Average LT
The cost to place an order to the distribut $ 24.00
The annual cost to hold a filter in stock $ 5.00
Stockout Cost ($/unit) $ 7.00
Order Size 120
Reorder Point 159
Beginning Inventory 200

Lower Range
Demand Probability
Probability mean (Di-D bar)^2
18 0.1 0 1.8 81
22 0.25 0.1 5.5 25
26 0.15 0.35 3.9 1
30 0.3 0.5 9 9
32 0.1 0.8 3.2 25
36 0.1 0.9 3.6 81
27

Lower Range
Lead Time(wks) Probability
Probability mean (Li-L bar)^2
1 0.1 0 0.1 6.0025
2 0.15 0.1 0.3 2.1025
3 0.3 0.25 0.9 0.2025
4 0.2 0.55 0.8 0.3025
5 0.15 0.75 0.75 2.4025
6 0.1 0.9 0.6 6.5025
3.45
safety stock reorder point
70.5336792054 65.563878687 163.68367921 158.7139
 Random Numbers (Dema
he distributor is $24 and the annual cost to hold a Lower Range
Lead Time(LT) R No.
ts, and the store operates 50 weeks per year. The Probability
ft below. The delivery lead time from the 0 1 1
ight below. Suppose Zeke wants to use a Q 0.1 2 2
$7 per unit, what is the expected cost per week of 0.25 3 3
0.55 4 4
0.75 5 5
0.9 6 6
Lower Range 7
Probability
Probability Lower Range 8
Weekly Demand
0.1 0 Probability 9
0.15 0.1 0 18 10
0.3 0.25 0.1 22 11
0.2 0.55 0.35 26 12
0.15 0.75 0.5 30 13
0.1 0.9 0.8 32 14
0.9 36 15
16
17
18
Expected cost = $342.34
units 19
20
units 21
22
23
24
25
σd^2 26
0 8.1 100.25 28 27
2.5 6.25 28
0.35 0.15 29
4.5 2.7 30
20 2.5 31
72.9 8.1 32
33
34
35
σL^2 36
0.60025 2.0475 37
0.315375 38
0.06075 39
0.0605 40
0.360375 41
0.65025 42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
 93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Random Numbers (Demand and Lead Time) Simulat
Beginning Simulated Ending Stockout
Demand Lead Time Week
Inventory Demand Inventory Units
0.9133 0.9314 1 200 36 164 0
0.5599 0.6879 2 164 30 134 0
0.2365 0.4294 3 134 22 112 0
0.3119 0.2307 4 112 22 90 0
0.1732 0.7426 5 90 22 68 0
0.5227 0.3119 6 68 30 38 0
0.1497 0.0049 7 38 22 16 0
0.4850 0.9092 8 136 26 110 0
0.2707 0.4801 9 110 22 88 0
0.5937 0.5124 10 88 30 58 0
0.5575 0.8052 11 58 30 28 0
0.0792 0.1578 12 28 18 10 0
0.9361 0.0922 13 10 36 0 26
0.9299 0.1207 14 120 36 84 0
0.7314 0.3962 15 84 30 54 0
0.1152 0.1469 16 54 22 32 0
0.7139 0.7534 17 32 30 2 0
0.9370 0.6654 18 2 36 0 34
0.2676 0.2595 19 0 22 0 22
0.7292 0.0636 20 0 30 0 30
0.5680 0.1242 21 120 30 90 0
0.2521 0.1978 22 90 22 68 0
0.2705 0.7904 23 68 22 46 0
0.6774 0.5379 24 46 30 16 0
0.5003 0.1563 25 16 30 0 14
0.6630 0.0428 26 0 30 0 30
0.9112 0.6644 27 120 36 84 0
0.3726 0.6304 28 84 26 58 0
0.5834 0.3830 29 58 30 28 0
0.7007 0.3357 30 28 30 0 2
0.1464 0.8511 31 0 22 0 22
0.2238 0.5275 32 0 22 0 22
0.5711 0.3419 33 0 30 0 30
0.4944 0.7555 34 0 26 0 26
0.1263 0.3354 35 0 22 0 22
0.2697 0.0434 36 0 22 0 22
0.4146 0.9366 37 120 26 94 0
0.0484 0.8122 38 94 18 76 0
0.5533 0.7496 39 76 30 46 0
0.5874 0.8217 40 46 30 16 0
0.3406 0.4794 41 16 22 0 6
0.9108 0.0098 42 0 36 0 36
0.3330 0.7931 43 120 22 98 0
0.5647 0.9275 44 98 30 68 0
0.7563 0.5347 45 68 30 38 0
0.0778 0.4001 46 38 18 20 0
0.0784 0.9758 47 20 18 2 0
0.6453 0.2873 48 2 30 0 28
0.7866 0.2558 49 0 30 0 30
0.9313 0.9597 50 0 36 0 36
0.2427 0.5384 51 0 22 0 22
0.1721 0.2555 52 0 22 0 22
0.3779 0.4900 53 0 26 0 26
0.0795 0.6698 54 0 18 0 18
0.8524 0.5304 55 0 32 0 32
0.1238 0.6828 56 0 22 0 22
0.2334 0.6655 57 0 22 0 22
0.1447 0.1833 58 0 22 0 22
0.8302 0.8786 59 0 32 0 32
0.6508 0.4782 60 0 30 0 30
0.0849 0.5419 61 0 18 0 18
0.7285 0.6550 62 0 30 0 30
0.8755 0.0598 63 0 32 0 32
0.4869 0.9258 64 120 26 94 0
0.4051 0.0627 65 94 26 68 0
0.1296 0.8172 66 188 22 166 0
0.5115 0.6416 67 166 30 136 0
0.2532 0.3834 68 136 22 114 0
0.8464 0.0147 69 114 32 82 0
0.2408 0.9437 70 202 22 180 0
0.5355 0.6371 71 180 30 150 0
0.8944 0.6785 72 150 32 118 0
0.9648 0.0039 73 118 36 82 0
0.9863 0.8997 74 202 36 166 0
0.2973 0.7859 75 166 22 144 0
0.4025 0.9236 76 144 26 118 0
0.4565 0.1638 77 118 26 92 0
0.6644 0.2425 78 92 30 62 0
0.7061 0.3063 79 62 30 32 0
0.8998 0.4359 80 32 32 0 0
0.0509 0.8686 81 0 18 0 18
0.3985 0.3222 82 0 26 0 26
0.6949 0.9974 83 0 30 0 30
0.4902 0.5405 84 0 26 0 26
0.1042 0.6519 85 0 22 0 22
0.8162 0.0891 86 0 32 0 32
0.3352 0.1725 87 120 22 98 0
0.3577 0.9507 88 98 26 72 0
0.9294 0.8596 89 72 36 36 0
0.1383 0.4571 90 36 22 14 0
0.4840 0.6715 91 14 26 0 12
0.8305 0.9920 92 0 32 0 32
0.9231 0.7118 93 0 36 0 36
0.4106 0.2132 94 0 26 0 26
0.9966 0.4821 95 0 36 0 36
0.8894 0.4870 96 0 32 0 32
0.0632 0.5972 97 0 18 0 18
0.5276 0.7209 98 0 30 0 30
0.2756 0.9306 99 0 22 0 22
0.3789 0.7158 100 0 26 0 26
Averages 54.80 27.10 39.60 11.90
 Simulation Result
Days to
Place Simulated Holding Ordering Stockout
Receive Total Cost
Order? Lead Time Cost Cost Cost
Order
No - - $ 910 $ - $ - $ 910
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ 745 $ 24 $ - $ 769
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 615 $ 24 $ - $ 639
Yes 2.00 2.00 $ 505 $ 24 $ - $ 529
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ 395 $ 24 $ - $ 419
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 265 $ 24 $ - $ 289
Yes 1.00 1.00 $ 135 $ 24 $ - $ 159
Yes 6.00 6.00 $ 615 $ 24 $ - $ 639
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 495 $ 24 $ - $ 519
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 365 $ 24 $ - $ 389
Yes 5.00 5.00 $ 215 $ 24 $ - $ 239
Yes 2.00 2.00 $ 95 $ 24 $ - $ 119
Yes 1.00 1.00 $ 25 $ 24 $ 182 $ 231
Yes 2.00 2.00 $ 510 $ 24 $ - $ 534
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 345 $ 24 $ - $ 369
Yes 2.00 2.00 $ 215 $ 24 $ - $ 239
Yes 5.00 5.00 $ 85 $ 24 $ - $ 109
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ 5 $ 24 $ 238 $ 267
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 154 $ 178
Yes 1.00 1.00 $ - $ 24 $ 210 $ 234
Yes 2.00 2.00 $ 525 $ 24 $ - $ 549
Yes 2.00 2.00 $ 395 $ 24 $ - $ 419
Yes 5.00 5.00 $ 285 $ 24 $ - $ 309
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 155 $ 24 $ - $ 179
Yes 2.00 2.00 $ 40 $ 24 $ 98 $ 162
Yes 1.00 1.00 $ - $ 24 $ 210 $ 234
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ 510 $ 24 $ - $ 534
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ 355 $ 24 $ - $ 379
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 215 $ 24 $ - $ 239
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 70 $ 24 $ 14 $ 108
Yes 5.00 5.00 $ - $ 24 $ 154 $ 178
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 154 $ 178
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 210 $ 234
Yes 5.00 5.00 $ - $ 24 $ 182 $ 206
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 154 $ 178
Yes 1.00 1.00 $ - $ 24 $ 154 $ 178
Yes 6.00 6.00 $ 535 $ 24 $ - $ 559
Yes 5.00 5.00 $ 425 $ 24 $ - $ 449
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ 305 $ 24 $ - $ 329
Yes 5.00 5.00 $ 155 $ 24 $ - $ 179
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 40 $ 24 $ 42 $ 106
Yes 1.00 1.00 $ - $ 24 $ 252 $ 276
Yes 5.00 5.00 $ 545 $ 24 $ - $ 569
Yes 6.00 6.00 $ 415 $ 24 $ - $ 439
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 265 $ 24 $ - $ 289
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 145 $ 24 $ - $ 169
Yes 6.00 6.00 $ 55 $ 24 $ - $ 79
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 5 $ 24 $ 196 $ 225
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 210 $ 234
Yes 6.00 6.00 $ - $ 24 $ 252 $ 276
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 154 $ 178
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 154 $ 178
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 182 $ 206
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ - $ 24 $ 126 $ 150
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 224 $ 248
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ - $ 24 $ 154 $ 178
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ - $ 24 $ 154 $ 178
Yes 2.00 2.00 $ - $ 24 $ 154 $ 178
Yes 5.00 5.00 $ - $ 24 $ 224 $ 248
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 210 $ 234
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 126 $ 150
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ - $ 24 $ 210 $ 234
Yes 1.00 1.00 $ - $ 24 $ 224 $ 248
Yes 6.00 6.00 $ 535 $ 24 $ - $ 559
Yes 1.00 1.00 $ 405 $ 24 $ - $ 429
No - - $ 885 $ - $ - $ 885
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ 755 $ 24 $ - $ 779
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 625 $ 24 $ - $ 649
Yes 1.00 1.00 $ 490 $ 24 $ - $ 514
No - - $ 955 $ - $ - $ 955
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ 825 $ 24 $ - $ 849
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ 670 $ 24 $ - $ 694
Yes 1.00 1.00 $ 500 $ 24 $ - $ 524
No - - $ 920 $ - $ - $ 920
Yes 5.00 5.00 $ 775 $ 24 $ - $ 799
Yes 6.00 6.00 $ 655 $ 24 $ - $ 679
Yes 2.00 2.00 $ 525 $ 24 $ - $ 549
Yes 2.00 2.00 $ 385 $ 24 $ - $ 409
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 235 $ 24 $ - $ 259
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 80 $ 24 $ - $ 104
Yes 5.00 5.00 $ - $ 24 $ 126 $ 150
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 182 $ 206
Yes 6.00 6.00 $ - $ 24 $ 210 $ 234
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 182 $ 206
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ - $ 24 $ 154 $ 178
Yes 1.00 1.00 $ - $ 24 $ 224 $ 248
Yes 2.00 2.00 $ 545 $ 24 $ - $ 569
Yes 6.00 6.00 $ 425 $ 24 $ - $ 449
Yes 5.00 5.00 $ 270 $ 24 $ - $ 294
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ 125 $ 24 $ - $ 149
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ 35 $ 24 $ 84 $ 143
Yes 6.00 6.00 $ - $ 24 $ 224 $ 248
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ - $ 24 $ 252 $ 276
Yes 2.00 2.00 $ - $ 24 $ 182 $ 206
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 252 $ 276
Yes 3.00 3.00 $ - $ 24 $ 224 $ 248
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ - $ 24 $ 126 $ 150
Yes 4.00 4.00 $ - $ 24 $ 210 $ 234
Yes 6.00 6.00 $ - $ 24 $ 154 $ 178
Yes 4.00 4 $ - $ 24 $ 182 $ 206
3.44 3.44 236.00 23.04 83.30 342.34
A newsboy can earn $12 by selling a newspaper, but he may lose $8 if
he orders more newspapers than needed: determine the optimal order Lower
quantity given the following information (uncertain demand) Range
Probability
0
Lower Range 0.1
Demand Probability
Probability 0.35
38 0.1 0 0.45
45 0.25 0.1 0.75
52 0.1 0.35 0.9
59 0.3 0.45
62 0.15 0.75
66 0.1 0.9

Marginal Profit = $ 12.00

Marginal Loss = $ 8.00

Order Quantity Avg. Profit

38 $ 350.00
45 $ 304.40
52 $ 257.20
59 $ 204.80
62 $ 180.80
66 $ 148.80
Greatest Expected Payoff = $ 350.00
Order Quantity = 38
 Random value (For Demand) Q= 38 Simulation (100 times)
Order
Demand No. random Day Demand Daily Profit
Quantity
38 1 0.103820779 1 45 38 $ 456.00
45 2 0.570665475 2 59 39 $ 468.00
52 3 0.264297698 3 45 40 $ 480.00
59 4 0.514313323 4 59 41 $ 492.00
62 5 0.092578711 5 38 42 $ 424.00
66 6 0.553708497 6 59 43 $ 516.00
7 0.779070458 7 62 44 $ 528.00
8 0.280810821 8 45 45 $ 540.00
9 0.775248662 9 62 46 $ 552.00
10 0.587737032 10 59 47 $ 564.00
11 0.417781923 11 52 48 $ 576.00
12 0.420363201 12 52 49 $ 588.00
13 0.138354053 13 45 50 $ 500.00
14 0.774688845 14 62 51 $ 612.00
15 0.127807211 15 45 52 $ 484.00
16 0.341210074 16 45 53 $ 476.00
17 0.545667715 17 59 54 $ 648.00
18 0.273315635 18 45 55 $ 460.00
19 0.742698797 19 59 56 $ 672.00
20 0.376311936 20 52 57 $ 584.00
21 0.047341051 21 38 58 $ 296.00
22 0.398342605 22 52 59 $ 568.00
23 0.607013439 23 59 60 $ 700.00
24 0.503522337 24 59 61 $ 692.00
25 0.933363551 25 66 62 $ 744.00
26 0.816209378 26 62 63 $ 736.00
27 0.002824453 27 38 64 $ 248.00
28 0.756248188 28 62 65 $ 720.00
29 0.466961351 29 59 66 $ 652.00
30 0.245975457 30 45 67 $ 364.00
31 0.392307746 31 52 68 $ 496.00
32 0.155878151 32 45 69 $ 348.00
33 0.342623262 33 45 70 $ 340.00
34 0.947114411 34 66 71 $ 752.00
35 0.154460755 35 45 72 $ 324.00
36 0.91158155 36 66 73 $ 736.00
37 0.566595455 37 59 74 $ 588.00
38 0.77218936 38 62 75 $ 640.00
39 0.291141512 39 45 76 $ 292.00
40 0.512293911 40 59 77 $ 564.00
41 0.707004281 41 59 78 $ 556.00
42 0.175783797 42 45 79 $ 268.00
43 0.77804179 43 62 80 $ 600.00
44 0.822983405 44 62 81 $ 592.00
45 0.764505247 45 62 82 $ 584.00
46 0.31726472 46 45 83 $ 236.00
47 0.589807651 47 59 84 $ 508.00
48 0.045297596 48 38 85 $ 80.00
49 0.974844637 49 66 86 $ 632.00
50 0.177980186 50 45 87 $ 204.00
51 0.734698076 51 59 88 $ 476.00
52 0.438411239 52 52 89 $ 328.00
53 0.450055603 53 59 90 $ 460.00
54 0.465399072 54 59 91 $ 452.00
55 0.359722449 55 52 92 $ 304.00
56 0.222123352 56 45 93 $ 156.00
57 0.035171401 57 38 94 $ 8.00
58 0.304557478 58 45 95 $ 140.00
59 0.157787481 59 45 96 $ 132.00
60 0.774262855 60 62 97 $ 464.00
61 0.292073627 61 45 98 $ 116.00
62 0.410149959 62 52 99 $ 248.00
63 0.834595863 63 62 100 $ 440.00
64 0.666688181 64 59 101 $ 372.00
65 0.326849186 65 45 102 $ 84.00
66 0.96492946 66 66 103 $ 496.00
67 0.987981971 67 66 104 $ 488.00
68 0.435182341 68 52 105 $ 200.00
69 0.467787081 69 59 106 $ 332.00
70 0.236007927 70 45 107 $ 44.00
71 0.685110146 71 59 108 $ 316.00
72 0.374629904 72 52 109 $ 168.00
73 0.883964541 73 62 110 $ 360.00
74 0.1819652 74 45 111 $ 12.00
75 0.473900273 75 59 112 $ 284.00
76 0.592027003 76 59 113 $ 276.00
77 0.457744781 77 59 114 $ 268.00
78 0.207075503 78 45 115 -$ 20.00
79 0.735603478 79 59 116 $ 252.00
80 0.480898162 80 59 117 $ 244.00
81 0.719726421 81 59 118 $ 236.00
82 0.544170131 82 59 119 $ 228.00
83 0.439517008 83 52 120 $ 80.00
84 0.816789444 84 62 121 $ 272.00
85 0.092409594 85 38 122 -$ 216.00
86 0.160824314 86 45 123 -$ 84.00
 87 0.724962147 87 59 124 $ 188.00
88 0.722912803 88 59 125 $ 180.00
89 0.396375375 89 52 126 $ 32.00
90 0.575001355 90 59 127 $ 164.00
91 0.75476122 91 62 128 $ 216.00
92 0.101699153 92 45 129 -$ 132.00
93 0.509286111 93 59 130 $ 140.00
94 0.391695996 94 52 131 -$ 8.00
95 0.964306506 95 66 132 $ 264.00
96 0.294006649 96 45 133 -$ 164.00
97 0.642389705 97 59 134 $ 108.00
98 0.432685552 98 52 135 -$ 40.00
99 0.134340289 99 45 136 -$ 188.00
100 0.814207715 100 62 137 $ 144.00
$ 350.00
 Q= 45 Simulation (100 times) Q= 52 Simulation (100 times)
Order Order
Day Demand Daily Profit Day Demand Daily Profit
Quantity Quantity
1 45 45 $ 540.00 1 45 52 484.00
2 59 46 $ 552.00 2 59 53 636.00
3 45 47 $ 524.00 3 45 54 468.00
4 59 48 $ 576.00 4 59 55 660.00
5 38 49 $ 368.00 5 38 56 312.00
6 59 50 $ 600.00 6 59 57 684.00
7 62 51 $ 612.00 7 62 58 696.00
8 45 52 $ 484.00 8 45 59 428.00
9 62 53 $ 636.00 9 62 60 720.00
10 59 54 $ 648.00 10 59 61 692.00
11 52 55 $ 600.00 11 52 62 544.00
12 52 56 $ 592.00 12 52 63 536.00
13 45 57 $ 444.00 13 45 64 388.00
14 62 58 $ 696.00 14 62 65 720.00
15 45 59 $ 428.00 15 45 66 372.00
16 45 60 $ 420.00 16 45 67 364.00
17 59 61 $ 692.00 17 59 68 636.00
18 45 62 $ 404.00 18 45 69 348.00
19 59 63 $ 676.00 19 59 70 620.00
20 52 64 $ 528.00 20 52 71 472.00
21 38 65 $ 240.00 21 38 72 184.00
22 52 66 $ 512.00 22 52 73 456.00
23 59 67 $ 644.00 23 59 74 588.00
24 59 68 $ 636.00 24 59 75 580.00
25 62 69 $ 688.00 25 62 76 632.00
26 62 70 $ 680.00 26 62 77 624.00
27 38 71 $ 192.00 27 38 78 136.00
28 62 72 $ 664.00 28 62 79 608.00
29 59 73 $ 596.00 29 59 80 540.00
30 45 74 $ 308.00 30 45 81 252.00
31 52 75 $ 440.00 31 52 82 384.00
32 45 76 $ 292.00 32 45 83 236.00
33 45 77 $ 284.00 33 45 84 228.00
34 62 78 $ 616.00 34 62 85 560.00
35 45 79 $ 268.00 35 45 86 212.00
36 62 80 $ 600.00 36 62 87 544.00
37 59 81 $ 532.00 37 59 88 476.00
38 62 82 $ 584.00 38 62 89 528.00
39 45 83 $ 236.00 39 45 90 180.00
40 59 84 $ 508.00 40 59 91 452.00
41 59 85 $ 500.00 41 59 92 444.00
42 45 86 $ 212.00 42 45 93 156.00
43 62 87 $ 544.00 43 62 94 488.00
44 62 88 $ 536.00 44 62 95 480.00
45 62 89 $ 528.00 45 62 96 472.00
46 45 90 $ 180.00 46 45 97 124.00
47 59 91 $ 452.00 47 59 98 396.00
48 38 92 $ 24.00 48 38 99 (32.00)
49 62 93 $ 496.00 49 62 100 440.00
50 45 94 $ 148.00 50 45 101 92.00
51 59 95 $ 420.00 51 59 102 364.00
52 52 96 $ 272.00 52 52 103 216.00
53 59 97 $ 404.00 53 59 104 348.00
54 59 98 $ 396.00 54 59 105 340.00
55 52 99 $ 248.00 55 52 106 192.00
56 45 100 $ 100.00 56 45 107 44.00
57 38 101 -$ 48.00 57 38 108 (104.00)
58 45 102 $ 84.00 58 45 109 28.00
59 45 103 $ 76.00 59 45 110 20.00
60 62 104 $ 408.00 60 62 111 352.00
61 45 105 $ 60.00 61 45 112 4.00
62 52 106 $ 192.00 62 52 113 136.00
63 62 107 $ 384.00 63 62 114 328.00
64 59 108 $ 316.00 64 59 115 260.00
65 45 109 $ 28.00 65 45 116 (28.00)
66 62 110 $ 360.00 66 62 117 304.00
67 62 111 $ 352.00 67 62 118 296.00
68 52 112 $ 144.00 68 52 119 88.00
69 59 113 $ 276.00 69 59 120 220.00
70 45 114 -$ 12.00 70 45 121 (68.00)
71 59 115 $ 260.00 71 59 122 204.00
72 52 116 $ 112.00 72 52 123 56.00
73 62 117 $ 304.00 73 62 124 248.00
74 45 118 -$ 44.00 74 45 125 (100.00)
75 59 119 $ 228.00 75 59 126 172.00
76 59 120 $ 220.00 76 59 127 164.00
77 59 121 $ 212.00 77 59 128 156.00
78 45 122 -$ 76.00 78 45 129 (132.00)
79 59 123 $ 196.00 79 59 130 140.00
80 59 124 $ 188.00 80 59 131 132.00
81 59 125 $ 180.00 81 59 132 124.00
82 59 126 $ 172.00 82 59 133 116.00
83 52 127 $ 24.00 83 52 134 (32.00)
84 62 128 $ 216.00 84 62 135 160.00
85 38 129 -$ 272.00 85 38 136 (328.00)
86 45 130 -$ 140.00 86 45 137 (196.00)
 87 59 131 $ 132.00 87 59 138 76.00
88 59 132 $ 124.00 88 59 139 68.00
89 52 133 -$ 24.00 89 52 140 (80.00)
90 59 134 $ 108.00 90 59 141 52.00
91 62 135 $ 160.00 91 62 142 104.00
92 45 136 -$ 188.00 92 45 143 (244.00)
93 59 137 $ 84.00 93 59 144 28.00
94 52 138 -$ 64.00 94 52 145 (120.00)
95 62 139 $ 128.00 95 62 146 72.00
96 45 140 -$ 220.00 96 45 147 (276.00)
97 59 141 $ 52.00 97 59 148 (4.00)
98 52 142 -$ 96.00 98 52 149 (152.00)
99 45 143 -$ 244.00 99 45 150 (300.00)
100 62 144 $ 88.00 100 62 151 32.00
$ 304.40 $ 257.20
 Q= 59 Simulation (100 times) Q= 62 Simulation (100 times)
Order Order
Day Demand Daily Profit Day Demand Daily Profit
Quantity Quantity
1 45 59 $ 428.00 1 45 62 $ 404.00
2 59 60 $ 700.00 2 59 63 $ 676.00
3 45 61 $ 412.00 3 45 64 $ 388.00
4 59 62 $ 684.00 4 59 65 $ 660.00
5 38 63 $ 256.00 5 38 66 $ 232.00
6 59 64 $ 668.00 6 59 67 $ 644.00
7 62 65 $ 720.00 7 62 68 $ 696.00
8 45 66 $ 372.00 8 45 69 $ 348.00
9 62 67 $ 704.00 9 62 70 $ 680.00
10 59 68 $ 636.00 10 59 71 $ 612.00
11 52 69 $ 488.00 11 52 72 $ 464.00
12 52 70 $ 480.00 12 52 73 $ 456.00
13 45 71 $ 332.00 13 45 74 $ 308.00
14 62 72 $ 664.00 14 62 75 $ 640.00
15 45 73 $ 316.00 15 45 76 $ 292.00
16 45 74 $ 308.00 16 45 77 $ 284.00
17 59 75 $ 580.00 17 59 78 $ 556.00
18 45 76 $ 292.00 18 45 79 $ 268.00
19 59 77 $ 564.00 19 59 80 $ 540.00
20 52 78 $ 416.00 20 52 81 $ 392.00
21 38 79 $ 128.00 21 38 82 $ 104.00
22 52 80 $ 400.00 22 52 83 $ 376.00
23 59 81 $ 532.00 23 59 84 $ 508.00
24 59 82 $ 524.00 24 59 85 $ 500.00
25 62 83 $ 576.00 25 62 86 $ 552.00
26 62 84 $ 568.00 26 62 87 $ 544.00
27 38 85 $ 80.00 27 38 88 $ 56.00
28 62 86 $ 552.00 28 62 89 $ 528.00
29 59 87 $ 484.00 29 59 90 $ 460.00
30 45 88 $ 196.00 30 45 91 $ 172.00
31 52 89 $ 328.00 31 52 92 $ 304.00
32 45 90 $ 180.00 32 45 93 $ 156.00
33 45 91 $ 172.00 33 45 94 $ 148.00
34 62 92 $ 504.00 34 62 95 $ 480.00
35 45 93 $ 156.00 35 45 96 $ 132.00
36 62 94 $ 488.00 36 62 97 $ 464.00
37 59 95 $ 420.00 37 59 98 $ 396.00
38 62 96 $ 472.00 38 62 99 $ 448.00
39 45 97 $ 124.00 39 45 100 $ 100.00
40 59 98 $ 396.00 40 59 101 $ 372.00
41 59 99 $ 388.00 41 59 102 $ 364.00
42 45 100 $ 100.00 42 45 103 $ 76.00
43 62 101 $ 432.00 43 62 104 $ 408.00
44 62 102 $ 424.00 44 62 105 $ 400.00
45 62 103 $ 416.00 45 62 106 $ 392.00
46 45 104 $ 68.00 46 45 107 $ 44.00
47 59 105 $ 340.00 47 59 108 $ 316.00
48 38 106 -$ 88.00 48 38 109 -$ 112.00
49 62 107 $ 384.00 49 62 110 $ 360.00
50 45 108 $ 36.00 50 45 111 $ 12.00
51 59 109 $ 308.00 51 59 112 $ 284.00
52 52 110 $ 160.00 52 52 113 $ 136.00
53 59 111 $ 292.00 53 59 114 $ 268.00
54 59 112 $ 284.00 54 59 115 $ 260.00
55 52 113 $ 136.00 55 52 116 $ 112.00
56 45 114 -$ 12.00 56 45 117 -$ 36.00
57 38 115 -$ 160.00 57 38 118 -$ 184.00
58 45 116 -$ 28.00 58 45 119 -$ 52.00
59 45 117 -$ 36.00 59 45 120 -$ 60.00
60 62 118 $ 296.00 60 62 121 $ 272.00
61 45 119 -$ 52.00 61 45 122 -$ 76.00
62 52 120 $ 80.00 62 52 123 $ 56.00
63 62 121 $ 272.00 63 62 124 $ 248.00
64 59 122 $ 204.00 64 59 125 $ 180.00
65 45 123 -$ 84.00 65 45 126 -$ 108.00
66 62 124 $ 248.00 66 62 127 $ 224.00
67 62 125 $ 240.00 67 62 128 $ 216.00
68 52 126 $ 32.00 68 52 129 $ 8.00
69 59 127 $ 164.00 69 59 130 $ 140.00
70 45 128 -$ 124.00 70 45 131 -$ 148.00
71 59 129 $ 148.00 71 59 132 $ 124.00
72 52 130 $ - 72 52 133 -$ 24.00
73 62 131 $ 192.00 73 62 134 $ 168.00
74 45 132 -$ 156.00 74 45 135 -$ 180.00
75 59 133 $ 116.00 75 59 136 $ 92.00
76 59 134 $ 108.00 76 59 137 $ 84.00
77 59 135 $ 100.00 77 59 138 $ 76.00
78 45 136 -$ 188.00 78 45 139 -$ 212.00
79 59 137 $ 84.00 79 59 140 $ 60.00
80 59 138 $ 76.00 80 59 141 $ 52.00
81 59 139 $ 68.00 81 59 142 $ 44.00
82 59 140 $ 60.00 82 59 143 $ 36.00
83 52 141 -$ 88.00 83 52 144 -$ 112.00
84 62 142 $ 104.00 84 62 145 $ 80.00
85 38 143 -$ 384.00 85 38 146 -$ 408.00
86 45 144 -$ 252.00 86 45 147 -$ 276.00
 87 59 145 $ 20.00 87 59 148 -$ 4.00
88 59 146 $ 12.00 88 59 149 -$ 12.00
89 52 147 -$ 136.00 89 52 150 -$ 160.00
90 59 148 -$ 4.00 90 59 151 -$ 28.00
91 62 149 $ 48.00 91 62 152 $ 24.00
92 45 150 -$ 300.00 92 45 153 -$ 324.00
93 59 151 -$ 28.00 93 59 154 -$ 52.00
94 52 152 -$ 176.00 94 52 155 -$ 200.00
95 62 153 $ 16.00 95 62 156 -$ 8.00
96 45 154 -$ 332.00 96 45 157 -$ 356.00
97 59 155 -$ 60.00 97 59 158 -$ 84.00
98 52 156 -$ 208.00 98 52 159 -$ 232.00
99 45 157 -$ 356.00 99 45 160 -$ 380.00
100 62 158 -$ 24.00 100 62 161 -$ 48.00
$ 204.80 $ 180.80
 Q= 66 Simulation (100 times)
Order
Day Demand Daily Profit
Quantity
1 45 66 $ 372.00
2 59 67 $ 644.00
3 45 68 $ 356.00
4 59 69 $ 628.00
5 38 70 $ 200.00
6 59 71 $ 612.00
7 62 72 $ 664.00
8 45 73 $ 316.00
9 62 74 $ 648.00
10 59 75 $ 580.00
11 52 76 $ 432.00
12 52 77 $ 424.00
13 45 78 $ 276.00
14 62 79 $ 608.00
15 45 80 $ 260.00
16 45 81 $ 252.00
17 59 82 $ 524.00
18 45 83 $ 236.00
19 59 84 $ 508.00
20 52 85 $ 360.00
21 38 86 $ 72.00
22 52 87 $ 344.00
23 59 88 $ 476.00
24 59 89 $ 468.00
25 62 90 $ 520.00
26 62 91 $ 512.00
27 38 92 $ 24.00
28 62 93 $ 496.00
29 59 94 $ 428.00
30 45 95 $ 140.00
31 52 96 $ 272.00
32 45 97 $ 124.00
33 45 98 $ 116.00
34 62 99 $ 448.00
35 45 100 $ 100.00
36 62 101 $ 432.00
37 59 102 $ 364.00
38 62 103 $ 416.00
39 45 104 $ 68.00
40 59 105 $ 340.00
41 59 106 $ 332.00
42 45 107 $ 44.00
43 62 108 $ 376.00
44 62 109 $ 368.00
45 62 110 $ 360.00
46 45 111 $ 12.00
47 59 112 $ 284.00
48 38 113 -$ 144.00
49 62 114 $ 328.00
50 45 115 -$ 20.00
51 59 116 $ 252.00
52 52 117 $ 104.00
53 59 118 $ 236.00
54 59 119 $ 228.00
55 52 120 $ 80.00
56 45 121 -$ 68.00
57 38 122 -$ 216.00
58 45 123 -$ 84.00
59 45 124 -$ 92.00
60 62 125 $ 240.00
61 45 126 -$ 108.00
62 52 127 $ 24.00
63 62 128 $ 216.00
64 59 129 $ 148.00
65 45 130 -$ 140.00
66 62 131 $ 192.00
67 62 132 $ 184.00
68 52 133 -$ 24.00
69 59 134 $ 108.00
70 45 135 -$ 180.00
71 59 136 $ 92.00
72 52 137 -$ 56.00
73 62 138 $ 136.00
74 45 139 -$ 212.00
75 59 140 $ 60.00
76 59 141 $ 52.00
77 59 142 $ 44.00
78 45 143 -$ 244.00
79 59 144 $ 28.00
80 59 145 $ 20.00
81 59 146 $ 12.00
82 59 147 $ 4.00
83 52 148 -$ 144.00
84 62 149 $ 48.00
85 38 150 -$ 440.00
86 45 151 -$ 308.00
 87 59 152 -$ 36.00
88 59 153 -$ 44.00
89 52 154 -$ 192.00
90 59 155 -$ 60.00
91 62 156 -$ 8.00
92 45 157 -$ 356.00
93 59 158 -$ 84.00
94 52 159 -$ 232.00
95 62 160 -$ 40.00
96 45 161 -$ 388.00
97 59 162 -$ 116.00
98 52 163 -$ 264.00
99 45 164 -$ 412.00
100 62 165 -$ 80.00
$ 148.80