Poisson Probability

Distribution
Theorem: Poisson distribution is limiting case of Binomial Distribution under the
following condition
(1) The number of Independent Bernoulli trials n, increases indefinitely, that is large 𝑛 →
∞
(2) The constant probability of success 𝑝 in each Bernoulli trials, decreases indefinitely,
that is 𝑝 → 0
(3) n𝑝 = 𝑚 , which is the expected number of successes, remain constant where m is
positive constant, In short when 𝑛 → ∞ 𝑝 → 0

Proof: Suppose that X be a binomial random variable with parameters n and p satisfying
the conditions (1), (2) and (3)
Here

𝑛 𝑟 𝑛−𝑟 𝑛 𝑟 𝑛−𝑟
𝑛 𝑝𝑟 𝑛
𝐵 𝑛, 𝑝, 𝑟 = 𝑝 𝑞 = 𝑝 1−𝑝 = 𝑟
1−𝑝
𝑟 𝑟 𝑟 1−𝑝
 𝑚 𝑚
Putting 𝑝 = and 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 1 − , and note that m is a constant, we have
𝑛 𝑛

𝑚 𝑟
𝑛 𝑛−1 𝑛−2 ⋯ 𝑛−𝑟+1 𝑚 𝑛
𝐵 𝑛, 𝑝, 𝑟 = 𝑛 1−
𝑚 𝑟
𝑟! 1− 𝑛
𝑛
𝑚 𝑛
1 2 3 1−𝑟 1− 𝑚𝑟
1− 1− 1− ⋯ 1− 𝑛
𝑚 𝑟
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 1− 𝑟!
𝑛
Taking limit 𝑛 → ∞ , we get

𝑚 𝑛
lim 1 − 𝑛 𝑚𝑟 𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚𝑟
𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑟 = 𝑛→∞ 𝑟 =
𝑚 𝑟! 𝑟!
lim 1 −
𝑛→∞ 𝑛
 𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚𝑟
𝑃 𝑋=𝑟 = (A)
𝑟!

Here we used the following results

1 2 3 1−𝑟
lim 1− 1− 1− ⋯ 1− =1
𝑛→∞ 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛
𝑚 𝑟 𝑚 𝑛
Also lim 1 − = 1 and lim 1 − = 𝑒 −𝑚
𝑛→∞ 𝑛 𝑛→∞ 𝑛

𝑛
1
∵ lim 1 + =𝑒
𝑛→∞ 𝑛
The probability law given by (A) is known as the Poisson distribution, it has just one
parameter namely, m
Poisson Probability Distribution: A Discrete random variable X is said to have a Poisson
Probability Distribution with parameter m, if, its probability mass function is given by

𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚𝑟
𝑓 𝑟, 𝑚 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑟 = 𝑓𝑜𝑟, 𝑟 = 0,1,2,3 …
𝑟!
0 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
If X is a poisson random variable with parameter m , we write it as X~P(m)

Remark: Poisson Probability Distribution is well defined because the probabilities

𝑓 𝑟, 𝑚 are positive for all values of r and the total probabilities is 1, that is.
∞ ∞ ∞
𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚𝑟 𝑚𝑟
𝑓 𝑟, 𝑚 = = 𝑒 −𝑚 = 𝑒 −𝑚 𝑒 𝑚 = 1
𝑟! 𝑟!
𝑟=0 𝑟=0 𝑟=0
Mean and variance

Mean= E  x  r    P  r  .r
i

re  m m r 
m r 1
  me  m 
r 0 r! r 1  r  1 !

 m2 
 me  m 1  m   ...  me m m
e m
 2! 
x  1  m
Variance :

  2  E  x  r    Pi x   x 
2
2 2 2 2
i


e m mr 2 
em mr
 r m 
2
 r  r  1  r   m 2
r 0 r! r 0 r!

 m r  m r  r 2
e m re m m
  r  r  1    m m e 
2 2 m
mm 2

r 0 r! r 0 r! r 2  r  2  !

 m2  m  m2  m
  m
The mean and variance of P.D. are equal to m.
Moment Generating function: We know that
𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚𝑥
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥 =
𝑥!

Moment generating function is

𝑥
∞ 𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚𝑥 ∞ 𝑒 𝑡𝑚 𝑡 −1
𝑀𝑋 𝑡 = 𝐸 𝑒 𝑡𝑋= 𝑥=0 𝑒
𝑡𝑥 = 𝑒 −𝑚 𝑥=0 = 𝑒 𝑚 𝑒
𝑥! 𝑥!
Now we find mean and Variance using MGF

Mean
−𝑚 𝑚𝑒 𝑡
𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 = 𝐸 𝑋 = 𝜇1′ = 𝑀 ′
𝑋 𝑡 𝑡=0 = 𝑀 ′
𝑋 𝑒 𝑒
𝑡=0

−𝑚 𝑡 𝑚𝑒 𝑡 −𝑚 𝑒 𝑚 𝑚 = 𝑚
= 𝑒 𝑚𝑒 𝑒 𝑡=0
= 𝑒
 𝑡
And 𝜇2′ = 𝑀′′ 𝑋 0 𝑡=0 = 𝑀′′ 𝑋
−𝑚
𝑒 𝑒 𝑚𝑒
𝑡=0

𝑡 𝑡
𝑒 −𝑚 𝑡
𝑚𝑒 𝑒2 𝑚𝑒 −𝑚 𝑡
+ 𝑒 𝑚𝑒 𝑒 𝑚𝑒
𝑡=0

𝑒 −𝑚 𝑒 𝑚 𝑚2 + 𝑒 −𝑚 𝑒 𝑚 𝑚 = 𝑚2 + 𝑚

𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋 = 𝜇2′ − 𝜇1′ 2 = 𝑚2 + 𝑚 − 𝑚2 = 𝑚

Theorem: Let X be a Poisson random variable with parameter m. Then the following
properties hold:
(a) The central moments, 𝜇𝑟 , satisfy the recurrence relation
𝑑𝜇𝑟
𝜇𝑟+1 = 𝑚 𝑛𝑟𝜇𝑟−1 + ( Renovsky Formula)
𝑑𝑚

(b) The second, third and fourth central moment are

𝜇2 = 𝑚 ; 𝜇3 = 𝑚 ; 𝜇4 = 3𝑚2 + 𝑚
Proof: Since X has 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 = 𝑚 , the rth central moment 𝜇𝑟 is given by
∞
𝑟 𝑟
𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚 𝑥
𝜇𝑟 = 𝐸 𝑥 − 𝑚 = 𝑥−𝑚
𝑥!
𝑥=0
Hence, it follows that
∞
𝑑𝜇𝑟 𝑟−1
𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚 𝑥
= 𝑟 𝑥−𝑚 −1
𝑑𝑚 𝑥!
𝑥=0
∞
𝑟
1
+ 𝑥−𝑚 −𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚 𝑥 + 𝑒 −𝑚 𝑥𝑚 𝑥−1
𝑥!
𝑥=0
Simplifying, we have
∞
𝑑𝜇𝑟 𝑒 −𝑚
= −𝑟𝜇𝑟−1 + 𝑥 − 𝑚 𝑟 𝑚 𝑥−1 𝑥−𝑚
𝑑𝑚 𝑥!
𝑥=0
 ∞
𝑑𝜇𝑟 1 𝑒 −𝑚
⟹ = −𝑟𝜇𝑟−1 + 𝑥 − 𝑚 𝑟+1 𝑚 𝑥
𝑑𝑚 𝑚 𝑥!
𝑥=0
we have
𝑑𝜇𝑟 1
= −𝑟𝜇𝑟−1 + 𝜇𝑟+1
𝑑𝑚 𝑚
Rearranging terms, we have
𝑑𝜇𝑟
𝜇𝑟+1 = 𝑚 𝑟𝜇𝑟−1 +
𝑑𝑚
(b) For any distribution, 𝜇0 = 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜇1 = 0 . Hence taking 𝑟 = 1 in the formula (a), we have

𝑑𝜇1
𝜇2 = 𝑚 1. 𝜇0 + =𝑚 1+0 =𝑚
𝑑𝑚
Thus 𝜇2 = 𝑚
Taking 𝑟 = 2 in (a), we have

𝑑𝜇2 𝑑 𝑚
𝜇3 = 𝑚 2. 𝜇1 + = 𝑝𝑞 0 + =𝑚 0+1 =𝑚
𝑑𝑚 𝑑𝑚
Next taking 𝑟 = 3 in (a) , we have

𝑑𝜇3 𝑑𝑚
𝜇4 = 𝑚 3. 𝜇2 + = 𝑚 3. 𝑚 +
𝑑𝑚 𝑑𝑚
𝜇4 = 𝑚 3𝑚 + 1 = 3𝑚2 + 𝑚
Note: some important applications of Poisson distribution are
(1) The load on web servers.
(2) The number of air accidents in some unit of time.
(3) The number of wrong telephone numbers dialed on a day.
 𝟑(𝒆𝒕 −𝟏)
Q.1. The MGF of a random variable X is given by 𝚳𝑿 𝒕 = 𝒆 Find P(X=1).

𝜆(𝑒 𝑡 −1)
Solution: - We know that MGF for Poisson Distribution is Μ𝑋 (𝑡) = 𝑒 .
Therefore, 𝜆 = 3
𝑒 −3 (3)𝑥
P(X= 𝑥)= 𝑥!

𝑒 −3 (3)1
The required probability is P(X=1) = 1! =3× 𝑒 (−3) = 0.1494.
 2 4 6
−𝜆 𝜆 −𝜆 𝜆 −𝜆 𝜆
𝑒 2!
= 9𝑒 4!
+ 90 𝑒 6!
1 3 1
Simplifying, we have = 𝜆2 + 𝜆4
2 8 8

⇒ 𝜆4 + 3 𝜆2 − 4 = 0 ⇒ 𝜆 = ±2𝜄 , ±1
Since 𝜆 is a positive real number, we must have 𝜆 = 1, for Poisson distribution 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑥 ) = 𝜆.
Hence the variance of X is 1.
(i) 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 2) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝑋 = 2𝑘) + ⋯
2 4 2𝑘
−𝜆 −𝜆 𝜆 −𝜆 𝜆 −𝜆 𝜆
=𝑒 +𝑒 +𝑒 + ⋯+𝑒 +⋯
2! 4! 2𝑘!
𝜆2 𝜆4 𝜆 2𝑘
=𝑒 1 + 2! + 4! + ⋯ + 2𝑘! + ⋯ = 𝑒 −𝜆 cosh 𝜆
−𝜆

Therefore,
1 1
P 𝑋 𝑖𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 = 𝑒 −𝜆 𝑒 𝜆 + 𝑒 −𝜆 = 1 + 𝑒 −2𝜆 .
2 2
Q. 4. If the variance of the Poisson distribution is 2, find the probabilities for 𝑟=1, 2, 3.

Solution: - Since Variance =2 ⇒ 𝜇 = 2.

We also know that
𝑒 −𝜇 𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −2 2𝑥
𝑃(𝑥 ) = 𝑥!
= 𝑥!

𝑒 −2 20
∴ 𝑃(0) = 0!
= 0.1353

𝑒 −2 21
𝑃(1) = = 2 × 0.1353 = 0.2706
1!

𝑒 −2 22
P(2)= = 2 𝑒 −2 = 0.2706
2!

𝑒 −2 3 4 −2
P(3)= = 𝑒 = 0.1804.
3! 3
Q.5. Suppose on an average 1 house in 1000 in a certain district has a fire during a year. If there
are 2000 houses in that district, what is the probability that exactly 5 houses will have a fire
during the year.

1
Solution: - Here 𝑛 = 2000 , 𝑝 = 1000
1
∴ 𝑚 = 𝑛𝑝 = 2000 × =2
1000

𝑒 −2 25 0.1353×32
Also, we have 𝑃(5) = 5! = 120 = 0.036.
Q.6. Find the probability that at most 5 defective components will be found in a lot of 200
components, if experience shows that 2% of such components are defective, also find the
probability of more than five defective components

2 1
Solution: - Probability of a component being defective is 100
= 50
which is small and hence
the distribution can be taken as Poisson.
1
Here, 𝑝 = 50
, 𝑛 = 200
200
∴ 𝑚 = 𝑛𝑝 = 50
= 4.

Hence, the probability of 5 or less than five defective components is

𝑃(𝑟 ≤ 5) = 𝑃(0) + 𝑃(1) + 𝑃(2) + 𝑃(3) + 𝑃(4) + 𝑃(5)

−𝑚 𝑚2 𝑚3 𝑚4 𝑚5 32 32 128
=𝑒 1+𝑚+ 2
+ 6
+ 24
+ 120
= 𝑒 −4 1 + 4 + 8 + 3
+ 3
+ 15
= 0.785

Next, the probability of more than five defective components

= 𝑃(𝑟 ≤ 5) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑟 ≤ 5) = 1 − 0.785 = 0.215.
 1
Q.7. A factory produces razor blades. The probability of its defective is 500
. In 10,000 packets
of 10 blades each, calculate the approximate number of packets
(i) Having no defective blade
(ii) One defective blade
(iii) Two defective blades.

1
Solution: - Given 𝑁 = 10,000, 𝑛 = 10 , 𝑝= 500
10 1
∴ 𝑚 = 𝑛𝑝 = 500
= 500
1
− 1 0
𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚𝑥 𝑒 5
5
𝑃(0) = 𝑥!
= 0!
= 0.9802

𝑃(1) = 𝑚 𝑃(0) = 0.02 × 0.9802=0.019604

𝑚 0.02
𝑃 (2) = 2
𝑃(1) = 2
0.019604 = 0.00019604.
 (i) Number of packets containing no defective
= 10000 × 0.9802 =9802.
(ii) Number of packets containing one defective
= 10,000 × 0.019604= 196(appx.)
(iii) Number of packets containing Two defective
= 10,000 × 0.00019604 =1.96=2(appx.).

Q.9. If X and Y are independent Poisson variables such that 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 2); 𝑃(𝑌 = 2) =
𝑃(𝑌 = 3). Find the variance of (X-2Y).
𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚 1 𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚 2 𝑚 𝑚2
Solution: - Given 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 2) ⇒ 1!
= 2!
⇒ 1
= 2
⇒𝑚=2

Variance of X is Var(X)=2
𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚 2 𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚 3 𝑚2 𝑚3
Now, 𝑃(𝑌 = 2) = 𝑃(𝑌 = 3) ⇒ = ⇒ ⇒𝑚=3
2! 3! 2 6

Variance of Y is 3.
∴ 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋 − 2𝑌) = 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) + 4 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑌) = 2 + 4 × 3 = 14.
.10. A car hire firm has 2 cars. The number of demands for a car on each day is distributed as
Poisson variable with mean 0.5, Calculate the proportion of day on which
(i) Neither car is used
(ii) Some demand is refused.

Solution: - 𝑚 = 0.5
𝑒 −0.5 (0.5)𝑥
𝑃 (𝑋 = 𝑥 ) =
𝑥!

𝑒 −0.5 (0.5)0
(1) 𝑃(𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 ) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = = 𝑒 −0.5 = 0.606 𝑖. 𝑒 61%
0!

The demand is refused only when both cars in use

𝑃 (𝑋 > 2) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 2) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 2)
−0.5 (0.5)2
=1−𝑒 1 + 0.5 +
2!
= 1 − 0.606 + 0.303 + 0.075 = 0.016 = 0.2%
 𝑒 𝑡 −1
Q.11. A random variable has the MGF e 4 .Find its Mean, SD, 𝑃(𝜇 − 2𝜎 < 𝑋 < 𝜇 + 2𝜎) and
𝑃 𝜇 − 2𝜎 < 𝑋 < 𝜇 .
𝑒 𝑡 −1
Solution: - The MGF of Poisson random variable X is e 𝑚

𝑒 𝑡 −1
Solution: - The MGF of Poisson random variable X is e 𝑚
𝑒 −4 (4 )𝑥
∵𝑚=4 ∴ 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥 ) = 𝑥!

But for Poisson distribution

Mean = Variance =m=4 ∴ 𝜇 = 4, 𝜎 = 2
⇒ 𝑃(𝜇 − 2𝜎 < 𝑋 < 𝜇 + 2𝜎) = 𝑃(0 < 𝑋 < 8) = 𝑃(1 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 7)
−4 (4 )2 (4 )3 (4 )7
=𝑒 4+ + + ⋯+ = 0.9
2! 3! 7!

Also,
𝑃(𝜇 − 2𝜎 < 𝑋 < 𝜇) = 𝑃(0 < 𝑋 < 4) = 𝑃(1 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 3)
−4 (4 )2 (4 ) 3
=𝑒 4+ + = 0.4131
2! 3!
Q.12. Find probability that at most 5 defective fuses will be found in a box of 200 fuses, if
experience shows that 2% of such fuses are defective.
Solution: - 𝑛 = 200, 𝑝 = 2% = 0.02
𝑚 = 𝑛𝑝 = 200 × 0.02 = 4
𝑒 −4 (4)𝑥
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥 ) = = 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑓𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑠)
𝑥!

𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑜𝑠𝑡 5 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑓𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑠) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 5)

= 𝑃(1) + 𝑃(2) + 𝑃(3) + 𝑃(4) + 𝑃(5)
−4 4 42 43 44 45
=𝑒 1 + 1! + 2! + 3! + 4! + 5!

= 𝑒 −4 [42.866] = 0.785
Q.13. The probability that a man aged 35 years will die before reaching the age of 40 years may
be taken as 0.018, out of a group of 400 man now aged 35 years, what is the probability that 2
men will die within next 5 years.
Solution: - 𝑛 = 400, 𝑝 = 0.018
𝑚 = 𝑛𝑝 = 400 × 0.018 = 7.2
𝑒 −7.2 (7.2)𝑥
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) =
𝑥!

𝑃(2 men will die with in next 5 years)

𝑒 −7.2 (7.2)2
= 𝑃(𝑋 = 2) = 2!
= 0.01935