Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Summary
Lancet 2007; 370: 1078–88 We examine the links between fossil-fuel-based transportation, greenhouse-gas emissions, and health. Transport-related
Published Online carbon emissions are rising and there is increasing consensus that the growth in motorised land vehicles and aviation
September 13, 2007 is incompatible with averting serious climate change. The energy intensity of land transport correlates with its adverse
DOI:10.1016/S0140-
health effects. Adverse health effects occur through climate change, road-traffic injuries, physical inactivity, urban air
6736(07)61254-9
pollution, energy-related conflict, and environmental degradation. For the world’s poor people, walking is the main
This is the third in a Series of six
papers about energy and health mode of transport, but such populations often experience the most from the harms of energy-intensive transport.
London School of Hygiene
New energy sources and improvements in vehicle design and in information technology are necessary but not
and Tropical Medicine, sufficient to reduce transport-related carbon emissions without accompanying behavioural change. By contrast, active
London, UK (J Woodcock MSc, transport has the potential to improve health and equity, and reduce emissions. Cities require safe and pleasant
P Edwards PhD, environments for active transport with destinations in easy reach and, for longer journeys, public transport that is
Prof A M Prentice PhD,
Prof I Roberts PhD); and
powered by renewable energy, thus providing high levels of accessibility without car use. Much investment in major
St Anne’s College, Oxford road projects does not meet the transport needs of poor people, especially women whose trips are primarily local and
University, Oxford, UK off road. Sustainable development is better promoted through improving walking and cycling infrastructures,
(Prof D Banister PhD) increasing access to cycles, and investment in transport services for essential needs. Our model of London shows how
Correspondence to: increased active transport could help achieve substantial reductions in emissions by 2030 while improving population
James Woodcock, London School
of Hygiene and Tropical
health. There exists the potential for a global contraction and convergence in use of fossil-fuel energy for transport to
Medicine, Keppel Street, London benefit health and achieve sustainability.
WC1E 5HT, UK
james.woodcock@lshtm.ac.uk Unsustainable transport
Motorised transport is over 95% dependent on oil and 10 000
accounts for almost half of world use of oil.1 9000
Non-OECD
8000
Greenhouse-gas emissions from transport are projected OECD
7000
CO2 (megatonnes)
Million vehicles
inequalities in transport energy use both between and
200
within countries. In 2003, global average consumption of
petrol and diesel was 283 L per person per year, ranging
150
from about 12 L per person per year in Nepal, Bangladesh,
and Ethiopia to 2135 L per person per year in the USA.4 100
Walking remains the main mode of transport for the
poor in most countries. 50
Attention is increasingly focused on China, with a fifth
of the global population and rapid economic growth, and 0
2005 2008 2015 2025 2035
where consumption of petrol for transport nearly doubled
between 1990 and 2003.5 Although still substantially Figure 2: Vehicle populations forecast in China7
below per-head distances in high-income countries, total
motorised passenger-km rose six-fold between 1980 4000
India
and 2003, and freight distance increased nearly five-fold.6 China
3500
Rapid urbanisation and motorisation have seen road
space for cycling curtailed. The number of cars and 3000
Million tonnes of carbon dioxide
by 2050. In 2003 there were 1·6 billion trips by passengers Figure 3: Total carbon dioxide emissions (well to exhaust) from on-road
worldwide and, by 2010, this figure could exceed vehicles: India and China7
2·3 billion. The UK has the highest air travel per head in
Europe, with a fifth of international flights passing wealthier individuals flying more. Trips by those in the
through UK airports. According to the UK Civil Aviation lower-income bands fell between 2000 and 2004.10 Even
Authority, passenger numbers at UK airports have been with cheap flights, foreign holidays remain too expensive
growing at about 6% per year since the mid-1970s—more for those on low incomes. The average household income
than twice the rate of economic growth—and show no of UK leisure passengers travelling through Stansted
sign of slowing. The UK Department of Transport airport was £51 000 in 2005, according to the Civil
estimates that aviation contributes about 5·5% of UK Aviation Authority’s 2005 Passenger Survey Report,11
carbon-dioxide emissions, but about 11% of the UK’s compared with an average household income of £31 000.
total effect on climate change. The UK’s share is A survey of emissions in the UK, including all transport
calculated by allocating emissions from half the flights to modes, found that the top 10% of emitters produced
and from UK airports to the UK, but more than half of almost 43% of emissions whereas the bottom
these flights are by UK citizens. Therefore, at the 10% produced only 0·1%.9
household level, the contribution of flying is higher and Aviation is believed to have a greater effect on climate
could be greater than from driving.8,9 Recent studies change than its carbon emissions alone. Additional
estimate that by 2030 UK total aviation emissions of contributors include nitrogen oxides, soot, sulphate
carbon dioxide will rise from 32 million tonnes in 2000 to particulates, and water vapour, which lead to the
65–85 million tonnes.10 These predictions include formation of contrails and cirrus clouds at altitude. Cirrus
probable gains in efficiency. cloud formation is difficult to predict and model. The
Most of the increase in UK flights has come from effects of nitrogen oxides and water vapour vary by
Increases outcome
Energy
Reduces outcome intensive
transport
Resource
use
Community Deaths Physical Local and Climate Social Health gains Several Health Dutch
severance and inactivity regional change capital of health promoting disease/
injuries pollution development pathways expenditure conflict
and the UK.15 Child pedestrians are at high risk in the UK, Climate change
with twice the rate of injury seen in France or Germany. The effects of climate change on health are discussed
Walking and cycling become safer when they are more elsewhere in this Series by Wilkinson and colleagues24 and
common, so increasing active travel can improve its safety.16 Haines and colleagues.25
The World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention argues
for a systems approach to injuries.13 The vulnerability of Air and noise pollution
the human body should be the system limit and speed Pollution from road transport is a major health hazard.
management is considered essential. Systems need to In addition to carbon dioxide, tail-pipe emissions include
accommodate common behaviours without leading to nitrogen oxide, hydrocarbons, ozone, benzene, lead, and
death and serious injury. Therefore, prevention strategies particulate matter, with attention increasingly focused on
should prioritise vulnerable road users by requiring particles measuring 10 μm or less (PM₁₀). The Global
motorised traffic to anticipate the variation in walking and Burden of Disease Study estimated that lead exposure,
cycling behaviour, and by limiting the speed and volume of mainly from transport, was responsible for 12·9 million
motorised traffic. Evidence-based recommendations DALYs in 2002.26 Suspended road-dust and wear of tyres
include alcohol control, changes to vehicle fronts, reduced and brake linings are the main sources of particles
hours for lorry drivers, speed enforcement, and traffic measuring 2·5–10 μm in many cities. A systematic
calming.13 review of the effects of transport pollution27 found good
evidence for an increase in total mortality, respiratory
Physical inactivity morbidity, allergic illness and symptoms, cardio-
Road danger is a disincentive to active transport, which pulmonary mortality, non-allergic respiratory disease,
creates a vicious circle. Over the past century, oil has and myocardial infarction and a possible link to lung
increasingly displaced food as the energy source for human cancer. Long-term decreases in air pollution are associated
movement. At the same time, occupational and domestic with reduced bronchial hyperactivity and respiratory and
physical activity have fallen. Replacement of short trips in cardiovascular disease, and consequent gains in life
cars by walking or cycling would enable most motorists to expectancy. Pollution interacts with physical inactivity on
achieve recommended levels of physical activity. Public cardiovascular disease, and some studies have found
transport trips usually include a walking component, and diabetes increases susceptibility to air pollution.28 Rising
hence greater physical activity than car trips. The Global temperatures from climate change will probably
Burden of Disease Study estimated that physical inactivity exacerbate the problems of air pollution.29
is responsible for 3·3% of deaths and 19 million Rapid urbanisation and increasing time spent in
disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide, through congested traffic means that exposure is increasing even
diseases including ischaemic heart disease, diabetes, colon where pollution levels are falling. The greatest burden is
cancer, stroke, and breast cancer.17 There is evidence of an in the mega-cities of developing countries. With use of
independent effect of physical inactivity and weight on the 2006 WHO guidelines, urban outdoor air pollution
risk of diabetes. accounts for 750 000 deaths every year, of which 530 000 are
The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in urban adults in in Asia. 16 of the world’s 20 most polluted cities are in
India is reported to have increased from less than 3% China, with vehicle emissions increasingly the dominant
in 1970 to around 12% by 2000.18 Cardiovascular disease source of pollution.5,30 Motorcycles form 75–80% of the
accounts for 27% of deaths in low-income countries; by traffic in most Asian cities. These vehicles are usually
contrast, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, combined, two-stroke engines and burn an oil-petrol mixture, with
account for 11%.19 In these countries, cardiovascular higher emission levels than four-stroke engines. Within
disease often occurs at younger ages than in higher-income lower-income cities, exposure to particles measuring
countries.20 10 μm or less is higher for slum residents than for other
Because food-energy intake has not decreased in line city dwellers. Slum residents may have to work in the
with reductions in physical activity, many countries are road among dense traffic, and people of lower
experiencing an epidemic of obesity. A survey in Atlanta, socioeconomic status suffer more from the same exposure
GA, USA, found that each additional hour spent in a car than do people of higher socioeconomic status.31
per day is associated with a 6% increase in the likelihood of Even in the WHO European region, tens of thousands
obesity.21 According to the Global Burden of Disease Study, of deaths per year are attributable to air pollution from
obesity accounts for 30 million DALYs lost.22 In the USA, transport.32 Although engines have become more efficient
the increasing size of air passengers has necessitated larger than older types, congestion and increasing numbers of
seats, increasing emissions per passenger. The intense short trips under cold-start conditions have offset this
marketing and ready availability of energy-dense foods in improvement.33 A UK study found that communities
conjunction with low levels of activity has created an with access to the fewest cars experience the highest
environment in which obesity can be seen as a normal levels of air pollution.34
biological response rather than a pathological state of an Traffic noise is the main source of noise pollution,35
individual.23 and has been linked to sleep disturbance and increased
cardiovascular risk.36 Aviation produces noise and air disabilities to transport can help us understand how
pollution. Night flights have the greatest effect on local car-dominated transport systems create disabilities
residents and there are high concentrations of nitrogen beyond those conventionally categorised as having a
oxides around airports, although most is from associated disability.45 Training, tricycles, hand cycles, and tandems
car traffic rather than directly from aviation.33 can increase the take-up of active transport among people
Shipping emissions contribute an estimated 10–20% to with impairments. Small electric scooters with speeds
the overall concentration of particles measuring 10 μm or similar to pedestrians or cyclists are a less active but still
less for most coastal areas in western Europe.33 Emissions low energy alternative.
from international trading ships in the seas around
Europe were estimated at 2·6 million tonnes of sulphur Other effects
oxides and 3·6 million tonnes of nitrogen oxides a year Environment and economy
in 2000. The main ports of southern California, USA, are Investment in motorised road transport is directly and
responsible for daily emissions of about 116 tonnes of indirectly resource-intensive. This use of resources is
nitrogen oxides, compared with about 92 tonnes from closely related to energy use, and raises questions of
the 6 million cars in the region.37 environmental sustainability beyond climate change.
Furthermore, such transport imposes considerable
Access and community severance external indirect costs on society. However, transport
Achieving high levels of accessibility to shops, markets, supports millions of jobs and businesses worldwide and
employment, education, health services, and social and is widely seen as having a special role in economic
community networks is essential for health, quality of development.
life, and social inclusion. However, transport policy often Transport resource use can be considered as having a
focuses on mobility rather than access. The 2006 EU health-related opportunity cost. That cost is the lost
mid-term review of transport strategy states that mobility opportunity to use these resources in ways with a more
is the quintessential purpose of transport policy.38 benign health profile. Although usually standardised in
Increasing use of cars improves access for those monetary units, the cost can be thought of as specific
individuals who are newly motorised but reduces access scarce resources. The opportunity cost can be measured
for others through danger and congestion. Danger from from an individual or societal perspective. Lower-income
high volumes of traffic can make reaching even nearby groups spend a higher proportion of their income on
destinations difficult, which can reduce access to services, transport than do richer populations. Expenditure on
employment, and social support networks. These effects transport is not then available for health care, food, or
are known as community severance, and can affect health education.46 There is little analysis of the health effects of
in several ways. Particularly hard hit are people who are these costs.
elderly or disabled, parents or carers pushing prams, and From a lifecycle and systems perspective, transport
children.39,40 In the longer term, urban sprawl can reduce resource includes vehicle production, use, and disposal,
social capital and increase social segregation.41,42 Ecological together with dependent industries such as construction,
studies show worse self-reported health in people living oil, steel, rubber, insurance, advertising, and finance.47,48
in sprawled cities.43 Car production uses nearly half the world’s annual output
Harms are created through too much mobility and too of rubber, 25% of its glass, and 15% of its steel.49 Most
little access. A Dutch study, including freight and motor vehicles are privately owned but road networks are
passenger transport, found that strategies to achieve usually led and financed by the state, with high costs.
substantial reductions in emission would reduce The widening of the M1 motorway in the UK is predicted
inequalities in the costs and benefits of transport, travel to cost £5·1 billion, around £21 million a mile. Investment
behaviour, and accessibility of economic and social in transport infrastructure mainly benefits those who can
opportunities.44 afford to take advantage of it. Decisions on transport
infrastructure determine the transport options available
Disability and impairment to individuals and firms, and can act as a substantial
Transport is a direct cause of impairments, through subsidy.
road-traffic injuries, and an indirect determinant, through The energy use of cars is closely related to their land
physical inactivity. Obesity can be considered an requirements. These requirements limit land availability
impairment. Moreover, transport affects the quality of for other uses, including agriculture. Estimates suggest
life of people with impairments by the creation of that increased transport infrastructure in China will
enabling or disabling environments. Traffic danger occupy an additional 270 000 km² between 2004 and 2020,
increases the requirements for social participation dispossessing 3·7 million farmers.5
through the need to judge speeds, see over traffic, and Although car and truck use bring substantial economic
cross roads quickly. The social model of disability views benefits, the harms impose costs on society not in the
certain environments as creating disabilities in people main borne by the vehicle user or business. This market
with impairments. Applying the social model of failure acts to both encourage further use and discourage
active transport. The economic cost of congestion is over financially viable. This would mean rising prices and
3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in many cities, with could put transport in conflict with production of plastics,
motor-vehicle speeds often slower than those by bike.50 fertilisers and drugs, and other energy demands, hitting
Road-traffic crashes cost developing countries about those least able to pay. However, the greatest health effect
1–2% of GDP each year. The victims of road-traffic of oil dependency is in countries highly dependent on oil
crashes are often young adults whose families depend on exports. On average these countries have worse health
their earnings. In some cities, air pollution imposes outcomes than other countries at similar levels of
major costs in lost productivity and health-care economic development,54 an event known as Dutch
expenditure. The consequences of physical inactivity are disease, and are at greater risk of armed conflict.55
major burdens on health-care resources, with the cost of
obesity in the USA estimated at around US$139 billion Economic growth and social development
per year.51 According to the IPCC, reducing transport emissions is
Transfer payments from states and international difficult because of the role that passenger and freight
institutions to automobile manufacturers and fossil-fuel travel have in social and economic development, and
corporations are not a resource use but a transfer that because emission-reduction strategies often challenge
could limit the resources available for health expenditure. the interests of the many transport stakeholders. In
Subsidies paid to car manufacturers to keep or attract webappendix 1 we investigate the role of transport in
jobs are common—eg, in January, 2007, the state of achieving the MDGs.
Michigan paid Ford $155 million. According to the Transport allows for a global division of labour and
Sustainable Energy and Economy Network, the World some believe transport investment has a privileged role
Bank approved payments, guarantees, and loans worth in economic growth. Although higher per-head GDP is
$10·7 billion to extraction projects for oil, coal, and gas associated with better health in low-income and
between 1992 and 2004.52 middle-income countries, there is little correlation in
wealthy countries.56 Air travel is the most energy-intensive
Environmental sustainability form of freight transport, followed by road, then rail and
Ensuring environmental sustainability is the seventh sea. Freight transport is growing faster than economic
Millennium Development Goal (MDG; webappendix 1). growth. The falling cost of transport by sea, air, and land See Online for webappendix 1
Sustainability has been defined as meeting the needs of combined with just-in-time production systems have
the present generation without compromising the ability encouraged development of global supply chains that see
of future generations to meet their own needs. This products transported many times between raw materials
definition is interpreted in two main ways. Proponents of and final disposal. A 2001 European White Paper
the weaker version argue that manufactured capital can describes transport networks as the lifeblood of
take the place of natural capital, so it is the combined competitiveness.57 However, the UK Advisory Committee
total capital stock of both that needs to be maintained or on Trunk Road Assessment found that transport
enhanced. The stronger interpretation recognises that cost-reduction had only a small contribution to economic
the functions of natural systems cannot be substituted by growth and productivity, and countries belonging to the
manufactured goods and so natural systems themselves Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
need to be maintained or enhanced. have large variability in their transport-resource use.58
Climate change is occurring in the context of increased Moreover, recent research has highlighted how poor
anthropogenic stress across a range of natural systems, health can restrict economic growth.59
including stratospheric ozone depletion, loss of It is important to consider the developmental effects of
biodiversity, spread of invasive species, exhaustion of transport expenditure separately from the resources
wild fisheries, and the depletion of freshwater supplies.53 transport itself consumes. Choice of transportation
In addition to its own resource use, transport facilitates system offers different pathways to social development.
the exploitation of other resources. From a climate-change The achievement of sustainable transport will require
perspective the most important effect is opening up areas decoupling social development and transport energy and
to deforestation. Through increasing the demands on resource use.
our environment’s carrying capacity—a capacity not
known in advance—energy-intensive transport reduces Freight and food miles
its human-carrying capacity. Although attention on the effect of climate change on
agriculture has focused on food miles, the total
Oil and energy security contribution of bovine emissions of methane is
Oil dominates transport energy use; ensuring supply is a substantially greater. Passenger travel is related to freight
driver of international policy. The potential for increasing because most air freight is carried in the hold of passenger
supply is a hotly debated issue. As conventional oil aeroplanes. Popular debate often singles out food freight.
supplies run down, lower-grade oil supplies with higher However, there is greater natural basis for regional
cost and greater effect on the environment will become specialisation with food than manufacturing. Moreover,
growing vegetables in heated greenhouses can consume provides a set welfare benefit to the traveller and the time
more energy than transporting them from warmer to get there is a cost. However, over time, changes in
countries. Locally grown seasonal vegetables are the most transport infrastructure alter the nature and perceived
energy efficient. The role of providing an increased range benefits of destinations. Furthermore, vehicle ownership
of non-seasonal vegetables and fruit in the reduction in and distant holidays often function as status symbols,
the rates of cardiovascular disease in developed countries reducing any net benefit.66
is an area for further research and could indicate a health There are areas in which motor vehicles and aviation
benefit from some food miles. However, attention has to provide health benefits. For example, in many settings
be given to the local effects of export crops on incomes, motor vehicles are central to the operation of health care.
the nutrient cycle, water supplies, food prices, and land However, these modes are able to provide greatest benefit
use. to society if allocated more sparingly and wisely.
There are strong links between the use of fossil fuels
Transmission of infectious diseases for energy and physical inactivity, air pollution, and
The movement of populations and livestock shapes the injuries. These health problems account for a substantial
patterns and distribution of infectious diseases.60,61 global disease burden and contribute to health
Reducing the spread of HIV and malaria is one of the inequalities. An integrated assessment of the health and
MDGs. One method of transmission that has received environmental effects of alternative transport is needed.
attention is the role of truck drivers in HIV transmission
(webappendix 1). African on-road settlements have an Low carbon and healthy transport
increased risk of injuries and greater risk of HIV There are four main strategies for moving to low-carbon
compared with off-road settlements.62 People on low transport while at the same time improving access and
incomes who live on these corridors have strong incentive equity: avoiding trips; increasing energy efficiency and
to engage in unsafe sexual activity. Climate change is alternative energy sources; shortening trip distances; and
expected to increase the range and seasons for malaria. changing travel modes. We look at the effect of these
Aviation also facilitates the rapid spread of infectious strategies on greenhouse-gas emissions and health in
See Online for webappendices 2
and 3
diseases, especially for emerging infections.60 London in webappendices 2 and 3.
aviation. Transport models that examined 60%70 and growth in flights. Radical changes to airframe design are
80%44,71 emission reductions in the UK, Germany, and not likely to be available for decades and could benefit
Holland by 2030 found that technological solutions alone long haul flights only.75 Biofuels are more problematic for
were insufficient. aviation than for cars. Hydrogen is not feasible in the
The average Ford car in the USA is now less fuel-efficient medium term, and would produce more water vapour,
than the Model T manufactured 80 years ago. which at altitude is a greenhouse gas.
Improvements in engine design have been more than
counteracted by larger heavier vehicles and additional Shortening trip distances and changing travel modes
energy-consuming gadgets (eg, air conditioning). Even Urban form and infrastructure is key to transport
in the European market, the fall in emissions per vehicle sustainability.41 Higher-density land-use is inherently
km has not been sufficient to compensate for the increase more energy-efficient because distances are shorter.
in vehicle km. Recent plans to introduce tighter emission Combined with developments in public transport,
targets (average emissions from new cars to be 130 g higher-density enables a more frequent and
carbon doxide per km, down from over 160 g carbon higher-occupancy public transport with lower emissions
dioxide per km) met with stiff opposition from the motor per passenger. Mixed-use developments, better housing
industry. In all markets substantial improvements could location and building design, and support for local
be achieved if all motor vehicles had the emissions levels services can reduce travel distances to employment,
of the lowest, but this would require behavioural change education, health services, and shops. These developments
by producers and consumers, because higher-emissions in turn encourage a shift in the mode of transport, and
cars remain the most profitable and advertised. improve the safety and attractiveness of cities. Measures
Alternative energy sources offer another route to lower to encourage active and public transport should be
emissions. In this context it is essential to realise that the combined with strategies to reclaim so-called released
higher are the absolute energy demands, the lower is the space from the car and to restrict car travel, otherwise car
proportion that can be provided by a given amount of travel speeds will rise, increasing its attractiveness
low-carbon energy. Therefore, providing sufficient (rebound effects).68
renewable energy to power public transport is more There is substantial variation in active transport between
feasible than for private motor vehicles. Although high-income countries (eg, over four times greater in
biofuels can supply some transport energy, the process is Europe than in the USA).63 In some European cities,
inherently not efficient enough to substitute for all cycling accounts for about a third of trips (eg, 32% in
transport fossil-fuel use at current levels. The production Munster, 37% in Delft) compared with under 2% in
of soya and palm oil has increased greenhouse-gas London. High levels of active transport are achievable by
emissions through deforestation. A recent UN energy older people who have the potential for large absolute
report argued that bioenergy offers greater emission gains in health: in Holland and Germany, over 50% of
reductions used for generating combined heat and power, trips by those aged over 75 years are by foot or bike.63
rather than fuelling transport.72 Other effects on health In low-income and middle-income cities, most journeys
depend on how alternative energy sources affect air are by foot, public transport, or in some cases bicycle.
pollution, food production and prices, and farm income Here, the non-car-user should be able to win political
in poor areas. Electricity or hydrogen generated by backing for policies that support active transport. However,
nuclear power comes with long-term waste disposal the needs of the majority routinely fall far behind those of
problems and a shorter-term low probability of accident car users73,76 and infrastructure for pedestrians is often of a
risk. Development of renewable sources of electricity is low standard. Pavements, where they exist, are often
essential, but producing large amounts of hydrogen from obstructed,77 and restrictive measures imposed on
renewable energy is at least 30 years in the future. A pedestrians restrict choice of road crossing.7,78
review of funding of buses fuelled by hydrogen in When road space is shared between modes of transport,
developing cities by the UN Development Programme sharing tends to be on motor-vehicles’ terms. Cycling is
found the cost to be about $2·6 million per bus.73 thus seen as too dangerous, and buses are preferred where
Furthermore, if the hydrogen is derived from coal-based available and affordable. The transport needs of slum
electricity, greenhouse-gas emissions will be higher than dwellers receive little attention. Low-income populations
if a standard diesel vehicle was used. often live at the edge of the cities and have the furthest
Electric and hybrid vehicles offer the greatest distance to travel, often by foot, with corresponding
opportunity for short-term technological solutions. exposure to the harms of motor vehicles. Some end up
However, even if tail-pipe emissions are avoided, the living on the street during the week because the journey is
large energy and resource use of cars during their too long or expensive.46 Cycling in many large African
lifecycle make the development of a truly environmentally cities has collapsed. In Nairobi, the share of trips by bike
sustainable car an illusion.47 fell from 20% in the 1970s to 0·5% in 2004.78 In many east
Efficiency gains from aviation are not expected to Asian cities, although under threat, cycling retains a high
exceed around 1·2% per year,10 far below the predicted modal share and the opportunity exists for this to be
retained and expanded. Unfortunately, governments and For aviation, the greatest potential for replacing short
international institutions, even when willing to support flights is by rail. However, faster trains have greater
public-transport investment, see cycling as an intermediate energy requirements. For longer distance or trans-ocean
technology and characteristic of underdevelopment. flights, the potential for direct substitution is much less.
One city that has moved in the right direction is Bogotá, Shipping freight is considerably more efficient than by
Colombia, which has seen increases in cycling, air, but for passenger travel, the need for more space and
improvements in air quality, accessibility, and quality of facilities due to the longer travel time mitigate much of
life.73 In Bogotá, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) provides a the greater efficiency. However, aviation encourages
frequent and fast service on a separate network from longer journeys than would be undertaken by any other
other motor vehicles. This service was introduced in mode. Important decisions on aviation capacity are
conjunction with policies to restrict car use, including currently being made. A predict-and-provide approach
weekly car-free days and major parking restrictions, and would lock-in dependence on aviation, making future
improved active-transport infrastructure. BRT is more reductions more difficult.
affordable (around $1–$15 million per km) compared
with a $50–$200 million per km system for rail or Active transport
underground travel. Active transport offers the greatest potential to improve
The same principles can be applied to freight transport: health and lower transport-energy use. These modes
transferring to less energy-intensive modes, increase physical activity, are non-polluting, pose little
human-powered vehicles (especially in the urban danger to others, and are socially inclusive. In most settings
environment), and rail or shipping, rather than truck or the greater scope is to increase cycling, which is the lesser
plane. Developing policies to reduce the high proportion used mode of transport. Some cities—eg, Berlin,
of deaths caused by trucks is essential if active transport is Copenhagen, and Bogotá—have achieved substantial
to be supported.74 Sustainable freight would require the increases in cycling. Already substantially more bikes than
distance travelled by a commodity through its lifecycle cars are produced each year and global ownership is far
from raw materials to disposal to be reduced through higher. The bicycle is the most energy-efficient means of
relocating production closer to markets, redesigning transport and offers access to an area more than ten times
supply networks, and more local purchasing. The greater than walking. Cycling and walking are
movement of finished motor-vehicles, their components, complementary. Some people are able to walk or cycle but
oil, and other raw materials constitutes a substantial not both.
proportion of total freight volume, so a reduction in use of Cross-sectional studies have found environmental
motor vehicles would have knock-on benefits. attributes of streets and communities (eg, connectivity)
and accessibility of destinations to be correlated with
Walking Cycling increased active transport.79,80 However, there has been little
Reallocating space “Woonerfs” or home zones: Space shared by pedestrians, bicyclists, and low-speed good prospective work. The few controlled interventions
and time motor vehicles, without curbs or pavements. Vehicles are slowed <16 km/h by road have tested only small-scale interventions and found small
narrowing and obstacles, such as trees
effects.81 The best option for rapidly improving the evidence
Less car parking Less car parking
base is applying prospective study methods to the natural
Lower speed limits Lower speed limits
experiments offered by development and changes in
Longer pedestrian crossing times Priority at junctions
transport systems. The table shows policies to promote
Improved connectivity and permeability for pedestrians and cyclists including:
active transport in the urban setting.
Wider pavements Opening up road closures to cycle traffic
These strategies offer the opportunity to move towards a
Pedestrainised areas Closing roads to through motor vehicles low-carbon healthier transport-system. A combination of
Road crossings at most convenient Removing one-way systems or allowing approaches is necessary to ensure that gains from
places for pedestrians contraflow cycling
information and communications technology, energy
Grid layouts not cul-de-sacs Grid layouts not cul-de-sacs
efficiency, and low-carbon fuels are not lost due to
Making use easier Human scale, mixed-use urban villages, with unique identities. Improved local services,
and more pleasant neighbourhood events and activities substitution, larger vehicles, and longer distances. The key
Accessible public transport for pedestrians and cyclists
to urban sustainable transport is local neighbourhoods,
High-quality pavements, pedestrian Secure, convenient parking facilities.
well-serviced and easy to navigate by active transport,
orientated lighting, benches, and Changing rooms and showers at work. supplemented by high-quality public transport powered by
public art Ramps renewable energy for longer journeys. Physical activity
Legal priority Requiring motorists to anticipate the variability of walking and cycling practices would be increased while at the same time reducing local
Financial Carbon permits, fuel and road taxation, parking charges. Payments/discounts for air pollution, greenhouse-gas emissions, and community
cycling to destinations severance. Road danger is reduced through lower traffic
*Active transport principally refers to walking and cycling, but also includes non-motorised wheel chairs, scooters, volumes and better street design. The street becomes more
skateboards, and roller skates or blades. inclusive, and a central hub of the community for play and
informal socialisation. Such a future would provide
Table: Policies prioritising active transport*
inclusive levels of accessibility without cars.47
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