INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Int. J. Climatol. (2017)

Published online in Wiley Online Library
(wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.5286

Lightning activity associated with precipitation and CAPE

over Bangladesh
Ashraf Dewan,a* Emmanuel T. Ongee,a M. Rafiuddin,b Md. Masudur Rahmanc
and Rezaul Mahmoodd
a Department of Spatial Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
b
Department of Physics, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh
c
Department of Geography and Environment, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh
d Department of Geography and Geology, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY, USA

ABSTRACT: Satellite-derived lightning data for 17 years (1998–2014) were used to evaluate the relation between environ-
mental factors and lightning activity over the Bangladesh landmass. Time series convective available potential energy (CAPE)
data were extracted from ERA-40 reanalysis data while total and convective rainfalls were obtained from Tropical Rainfall
Measuring Mission’s monthly products. In addition, the product of CAPE and precipitation was computed and used as an
additional variable. Three timescales – monthly, seasonal and annual – were utilized to determine the influence of precip-
itation and CAPE on lightning activity. The results indicated that CAPE stands out as an important variable at all of these
timescales for predicting the occurrence of lightning. The correlation coefficient (r) between CAPE and lightning activity
was found to be 0.902 (monthly), 0.703 (pre-monsoon), 0.550 (monsoon) and 0.702 (annual), respectively. Total rain showed
strong positive correlation with lightning on monthly scale (r = 0.734) and in the pre-monsoon season (r = 0.701). However,
such relationship was moderate during monsoon (r = 0.455). In contrast, convective rain showed slightly higher correlation
during monsoon (r = 0.587) compared with that of pre-monsoon season (r = 0.532). Because of strong seasonality in the data,
convective rain did not exhibit strong relationship on annual scale (r = 0.227). The product variable (e.g. CAPE × precipitation)
showed significant correlation on monthly (r = 0.895) and seasonal scales (r = 0.818 during pre-monsoon and 0.686 in mon-
soon) but its influence appears to diminish on a longer timescale (r = 0.375). Spatial maps of correlation coefficient revealed
significant positive correlation along relatively drier northern parts of Bangladesh. As lightning-related fatality is on the rise,
this study, first of its kind, is expected to inform public policy and provide information necessary for effective management of
this atmospheric phenomenon to save lives and property in Bangladesh.

KEY WORDS Bangladesh; lightning activity; CAPE; TRMM; precipitation; lightning activity
Received 10 April 2017; Revised 6 August 2017; Accepted 8 August 2017

1. Introduction environments (Dowdy, 2016), knowledge of lightning

Research on lightning activity has received renewed
interest following growing concern that an unstable atmo-
sphere, caused by global warming, might lead to more con-
vection and thunderstorms (Price, 2009a), and therefore
more lightning (Price, 2009b; Ushio et al., 2015). Because
of the atmosphere’s sensitivity to temperature changes
(Williams, 1992, 2005; Reeve and Toumi, 1999), small
changes in global mean temperature can result in enhanced
lightning activity (Price and Rind, 1994; Williams, 2005;
Futyan and Del Genio, 2007). It is estimated that for each
degree Celsius increases in global mean temperature; for
instance, lightning would increase from 5 to over 100%
(Price and Rind, 1994; Kandalgaonkar et al., 2005; Futyan
and Del Genio, 2007; Romps et al., 2014). As lightning
can have a variety of impacts on natural and built
* Correspondence to: A. Dewan, Department of Spatial Sciences,
Curtin University, Kent Street, Perth, WA 6102, Australia. E-mail:
a.dewan@curtin.edu.au
distribution at any scale (e.g. local, regional or global)
is useful to understand changes in the Earth’s climate
(Reeve and Toumi, 1999; Williams, 2005; Avila et al.,
2010), interaction between the radiative properties of the
surface and the atmosphere (Kilinc and Beringer, 2007),
management of wildfires (Stocks et al., 2002), saving of
lives and property (Holle, 2016), and so on. In addition,
knowledge regarding factors that influence lightning is
important for understanding the mechanism of its genera-
tion and improving forecasting of the phenomenon (Saha
et al., 2017).
With the availability of data from optical transient detec-
tor (OTD) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission’s
(TRMM) lightning imaging sensors (LIS) (Christian et al.,
2003; Cecil et al., 2015) and lightning detection networks
such as the United States Precision Lightning Network
(USPLN) or World Wide Lightning Location Network
(WWLLN), research on lightning has recently gained
momentum (Virts et al., 2013). These studies are essen-
tial for facilitating a better understanding of lightning at

© 2017 Royal Meteorological Society

 A. DEWAN et al.
different spatial and temporal scales (Matsangouras et al.,
2016).
Many environmental and atmospheric parameters have
been used to model (and/or predict) lightning activity
at various scales. One of the most widely used vari-
ables is rainfall (Jayaratne and Kuleshov, 2006; Pessi and
Businger, 2009; Petrova et al., 2014; Romps et al., 2014).
The relationship between rainfall and lightning appears to
be highly regime dependent (Petersen and Rutledge, 1998;
Jayaratne and Kuleshov, 2006; Price, 2009b). Petersen
et al. (2005) showed that precipitation ice water path and
lightning flash density are invariant on a global scale. Price
(2000) showed a close link between upper tropospheric
water vapour variability and global lightning activity. Con-
vective available potential energy (CAPE), an indicator of
atmospheric instability, was evaluated to reveal its influ-
ence on lightning in various settings (Williams and Renno,
1993; Romps et al., 2014; Galanaki et al., 2015). These
studies demonstrated an increase of lightning activity with
increasing CAPE. Romps et al. (2014) analysed CAPE,
precipitation and the product of these two and found that
the product of CAPE and precipitation explained 77%
of the variance of lightning flash rate. The effect of El
Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on lightning at
local and global scales has also been evaluated, indicat-
ing a strong association (Chronis et al., 2008; Dowdy,
2016). Avila et al. (2010) demonstrated that the correla-
tions between deep convection and lightning activity over
land in Northern and Southern Hemisphere are 0.8 and 0.6,
respectively. In addition, surface air temperature (Williams
et al., 1992; Reeve and Toumi, 1999) and air pollution
(Kar et al., 2009; Coquillat et al., 2013) have been found
to influence lightning, at both global and local scales.
South Asia ranks high among world regions impacted
by lightning activity with a high to very high flash rate
density (>30 fl km−2 ) as inferred from high-resolution
lightning data set, particularly the high-elevation envelop
of the Himalayas (Albrecht et al., 2016). Because of
high population density and labour-intensive agriculture,
lightning-related fatality is found to be increasing with
time in the Indian subcontinent (Illiyas et al., 2014; Dewan
et al., 2017). This situation may be exacerbated by pro-
jected increase of lightning activity under warmer climate.
Extensive studies were carried out in the past on
monsoon-dominated regions of Asia to understand
spatio-temporal variation and factors governing light-
ning using both ground-based and satellite-derived data.
Factors studied include meteorological factors (Zheng
et al., 2016; Chate et al., 2017; Saha et al., 2017); latitu-
dinal variation (Revadekar et al., 2013); environmental
pollution (Siingh et al., 2013; Kumar et al., 2016; Saha
et al., 2017); effect of ENSO (Yuan et al., 2016); pre-
cipitation (Kodama et al., 2005); and climate warming
(Kandalgaonkar et al., 2005).
Using LIS data over the Indian subcontinent, for
example, Kandalgaonkar et al. (2005) reported that a 1 ∘ C
rise in surface air temperature could lead to 20–40%
increase in lightning activity. Siingh et al. (2013) demon-
strated that total lightning flashes and convective rain
© 2017 Royal Meteorological Society
exhibit positive correlation in South and Southeast Asia.
Saha et al. (2017) indicated that upper tropospheric water
vapour (300 hPa) strongly influenced lightning activity
of Indian region. Chate et al. (2017) showed that the
total heat flux is the single best parameter to explain
lightning flash counts over Indian land whereas, for seas,
cloud-base height can be an indicator of lightning. Lal
and Pawar (2009) observed that rainfall and lightning are
well-correlated during pre-monsoon season but the rela-
tionship weakens during monsoon in central India which
was attributed to cloud-base height and aerosol concen-
tration. Pawar et al. (2012) indicated that CAPE plays an
important role in lightning activity during monsoon over
central India which is consistent with Murugavel et al.
(2014). However, in another study, Pawar et al. (2010)
found dissimilar relation between lightning and CAPE in
northeast India. They attributed the discrepancy to topo-
graphic forcing. Siingh et al. (2014) assessed relationship
between surface temperature, convective rain, CAPE and
lightning activity over several regions of India. While
lightning activity showed good correlation with surface
temperature and convective rain, varying relationship was
observed with CAPE which they attributed to orography
and the presence of vegetation cover.
Although studies, noted above, provide an overall picture
of lightning in the region, they lack more specific informa-
tion on factors affecting lightning activity of densely popu-
lated Bangladesh. Owing to its unique orographic pattern,
geographic location and strong seasonal variation (Ohsawa
et al., 2000; Rafiuddin et al., 2010), it is expected to be
different.
Bangladesh is a densely populated country in South
Asia. With an estimated population of 164 million and
density of 1237 persons per km2 (Bangladesh Bureau
of Statistics (BBS), 2016), the country (Figure 1) is fre-
quently impacted by various natural hazards including
lightning. Although floods and cyclones are the most fre-
quent, weather-related hazards such as thunderstorms, hail
and tornadoes are also common. Unfortunately, the impact
of lightning hazards has been overshadowed by exten-
sive damage caused by floods and cyclones (Ono and
Schmidlin, 2011). Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)
(2016) indicated that between 2009 and 2014, a total
of 1 350 094 (21.9% of total) households were affected
by tornadoes, thunderstorms and hailstorm (collectively
referred to as thunderstorms), whereas 1 503 742 house-
holds (24.4% of total) were affected by floods during
the same period. The study also estimated that thun-
derstorms resulted in a total loss of 26 710 million [1
US$ = 78 BDT (Bangladeshi Taka); 14.5% of the total
loss due to natural hazards], while flood damage was 23%
(BDT = 42 807.19 m) of the total loss in the same period.
This suggests that impacts of thunderstorms including
lightning are not insignificant compared with damages
caused by floods. Unfortunately, no study has been con-
ducted that addressed lightning activity or its governing
factors in Bangladesh. Recently, following the deaths of 89
people on 12 and 13 May 2016, Bangladesh government
Int. J. Climatol. (2017)
 LIGHTNING IN BANGLADESH
declared lightning as a natural disaster. In order to man-
age and minimize risk associated with this weather-related
hazard in Bangladesh, understanding environmental char-
acteristics of lightning occurrence is of great importance.
In the context of these underlying conditions, this study
examines the influence of meteorological factors on light-
ning activity over Bangladesh using 17 years of lightning
data from TRMM’s LIS. Through this work, we hope to
provide some insights on environmental characteristics of
lightning activity over a country which is at greater risk of
anthropogenic climate change due to its large population
and low levels of economic development.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
Bangladesh is located between 88.05∘ and 92.74∘ E lon-
gitudes and 20.45∘ and 26.63∘ N latitudes (Figure 1).
Its topography is characterized by lowlands and most
of the land seldom rises to 10 m above sea level
(Ohsawa et al., 2000). It has a coastline with a length
of 710 km. Pre-monsoon (March–May), monsoon
(June–September), post-monsoon (October–November)
and winter (December–February) are four distinct sea-
sons of the Bangladesh’s climate. However, its climate is
dominated by the summer (June–September) and winter
(December–February) monsoons with marked seasonality
in rainfall and temperature (Salahuddin et al., 2006). The
average temperature ranges from 27.8 to 29 ∘ C in summer
and from 18.5 to 21 ∘ C in winter. Pertaining to total
rainfall, 71% occurs during monsoon season, with the
highest occurring in the northeastern part of the country
under the influence of the bordering Meghalaya Plateau
(Khatun et al., 2016).
2.2. Data
TRMM’s LIS is specifically designed to capture lightning
activity between 35∘ N and 35∘ S latitude (Christian et al.,
2003). Its instrument is an improved version of the OTD
sensor (Yuan et al., 2016), in terms of detection sensitivity
(Bond et al., 2002). Although it has a smaller field of view
(FOV) compared with OTD, the detection efficiency of LIS
is higher with little regional bias as it is equipped with a
real-time event processor (RTEP) (Boccippio et al., 2001),
a device that can efficiently detect weak and daytime light-
ning flashes (Bond et al., 2002). LIS detection efficiency
varies with local hour and ranges from 69% near local
noon to approximately 88% around midnight (Cecil et al.,
2014). With a spatial resolution of 4–7 km, LIS captures
both cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning flashes
and delivers them as total flash count. Furthermore, with an
orbital inclination of 35∘ and low altitude (350 km) from
surface, the total dwell time of any point of Earth’s surface
or a cloud is about 90 s, meaning that the sensor is able
to capture individual storm when a storm passes through
its FOV. The LIS is highly useful in identifying the spatial
location of lightning, the time of events and measuring the
radiant energy from lightning activity (Qie et al., 2003).
© 2017 Royal Meteorological Society
Quality-controlled LIS lightning data covering 17 years
(January 1998 to December 2014) was acquired from
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
website (http://dx.doi.org/10.5067/LIS/LIS/DATA201).
Hierarchical data format (HDF) reading software from the
NASA (https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/pub/doc/lis/LISOTD_
1.1.tar.gz) was used to access the lightning data. We
used custom scripts to extract lightning flash informa-
tion – including location coordinates and timestamp
of occurrence – for a given bounding box (20∘ –27∘ N,
86∘ –93∘ E) over the study area. A geographic information
system (GIS) was used to create subset data sets for
Bangladesh.
Previous studies have employed several metrics to quan-
tify lightning activity, including thunderstorm duration,
thunder days, flash radiance (Chronis and Koshak, 2017),
flash counts (Kotroni and Lagouvardos, 2008; Chate et al.,
2017), flash density (Dowdy, 2016) and flash rate density
(Cecil et al., 2014; Albrecht et al., 2016), among others.
A cursory search of literature reveals that flash counts and
flash rate density are two of the most popular metrics for
measuring lightning activity. Generally, flash counts have
been employed in local-scale studies (e.g. Jayaratne, 1993;
Kandalgaonkar et al., 2003; Lal and Pawar, 2009; Siingh
et al., 2015; Kumar et al., 2016) and flash rate density
in regional-and-global-scale studies (e.g. Petersen et al.,
2005; Albrecht et al., 2016; Saha et al., 2017). Flash rate
density normalizes flash counts by accounting for dura-
tion of observations and detection efficiency (Cecil et al.,
2014). Detection efficiency varies by local time due to diur-
nal variation in relative brightness of individual lightning
events (Rudlosky et al., 2017). Over long time periods,
flash counts are a good proxy for flash rate density as flash
observations are sufficient to capture long-term lightning
climatology.
In this study, flash counts were used to quantify lightning
activity over the study period. A total of 83 641 flashes
were estimated to have occurred within the territory of
Bangladesh, with 86% (71 535) occurring over land and
the rest (14%) over the Bay of Bengal. This agrees with
consensus that lightning activities occur predominantly
over land (Zipser, 1994). Gridded flash count climatol-
ogy data sets, at a spatial resolution of 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ , were
obtained by summarizing flash counts according to month,
season and year. To obtain mean monthly flashes over
17 years, entire lightning records for a given month were
summed and divided by the number of years. Mean sea-
sonal flashes were derived by taking number of months
of a season into account. Furthermore, yearly flash count
totals were computed, over the 17-year (1998–2014) study
period.
Boxplots were used to compare atmospheric instability
(as measured by CAPE) between flash and non-flash
days. Owing to limitations in the temporal coverage of
the TRMM satellite, it was not possible to accurately
determine days when no lightning occurred. To address
this shortcoming, days on which the LIS sensor lacked
flash records were used as a proxy for no-lightning days.
Int. J. Climatol. (2017)
 A. DEWAN et al.

Figure 1. The study area. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com].

2.3. Temporal relationship between lightning
and environmental factors
Four meteorological variables were used to determine
factors associated with lightning. Gridded monthly means
of CAPE with a spatial resolution of 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ , between
1998 and 2014, were obtained from European Cen-
tre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
ERA-Interim database (http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/
data/interim-full-daily/levtype=sfc/). Although there are
a few variants of CAPE (e.g. normalized CAPE, most
unstable CAPE, mixed-layer CAPE, surface-based CAPE
or SB-CAPE), we utilized SB-CAPE owing to the fact
that it is considered most representative for the tropical
environment (Saha et al., 2014). Monthly total rain and
convective rain (mm h−1 ), with a spatial resolution of
0.5∘ , were obtained from TRMM’s 3A12 v7 (ftp://disc2
.nascom.nasa.gov/data/s4pa/TRMM_L3/). They were
then processed and averaged according to month, season
and year. A new variable, CAPE × precipitation (Romps
et al., 2014), was also used. It was calculated by multiply-
ing total rain and CAPE variables over the study period.
The purpose of using this variable (CAPE × precipitation)
was to assess whether the product variable was a good
predictor of lightning activity, as found in the United
States by Romps et al. (2014).
To understand the influence of precipitation and CAPE
on lightning activity, the Pearson’s product–moment
correlation coefficient (r) was calculated. Tests for
significance of r were performed at 95 and 99% signifi-
cance level.

© 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. (2017)

 LIGHTNING IN BANGLADESH
2.4. Spatial variation in relationship between lightning
and environmental factors
Because lightning incidences vary spatially, we obtained
r values for individual grids so that spatial dependence
on CAPE, total rain, CAPE × precipitation and con-
vective rain could be mapped to understand localized
effects (Kumar et al., 2016). This analysis, however, was
restricted to monthly scale. For each grid cell, multi-year
monthly averages (aggregated over 17 years) of flash
counts and meteorological variables were computed. Cor-
relation of the resultant 12 mean monthly flash counts and
corresponding values from each meteorological variable
were calculated and mapped.
3. Results
Monthly lightning data averaged over 17 years
(1998–2014) is plotted against monthly mean CAPE,
total rain, convective rain and CAPE × precipitation
(Figures 2(a)–(d)). The results indicated that an increase
in CAPE is associated with an increase of lightning activ-
ity. Except for slight discrepancies, trends of lightning
flashes and CAPE are temporally coincident (Figure 2(a)).
The maximum mean monthly CAPE during the study
period occurred in the month of April while the mean
maximum flashes occurred in May. The correlation coef-
ficient (r) between these two parameters was found to be
0.902 (p = 0.001).
On the other hand, mean monthly total rain showed
strong positive association (r = 0.734 at the 95%
confidence interval) with monthly lightning flashes.
However, lightning peaks a month earlier than total rain
(Figure 2(b)). Bimodal distribution of lightning flash and
convective rain is found at monthly timescale, indicating
a primary peak in May and a secondary peak in Septem-
ber (Figure 2(c)). The relationship between these two
variables exhibited strong positive correlation (r = 0.878;
p = 0.001). The product of CAPE × precipitation explains
89% of the variance (p = 0.001) in lightning flash activity.
This was the second highest variance on monthly scale
among four independent variables examined.
Because of low lightning activity during post-monsoon
and winter seasons, seasonal analysis was concentrated
on pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Mean seasonal
flash counts along with mean of environmental param-
eters for pre-monsoon (March–May) and monsoon
(June–September) were derived and regression analysis
was conducted. Table 1 revealed correlation coefficient
with corresponding p-value by season and annual times-
tamps. The results indicated that, generally, the product
variable (CAPE × precipitation) explained high lightning
variations followed by CAPE and total rainfall. While total
rain is significantly correlated with lightning activity dur-
ing pre-monsoon season (r = 0.701), the relationship was
moderate yet non-significant during monsoon (r = 0.455).
In contrast, convective rain appeared to have slightly
higher correlation with lightning activity during mon-
soon than the pre-monsoon season (Table 1). However,
© 2017 Royal Meteorological Society
as expected, total rain did not exhibit any significant
correlation on annual scale.
Further evaluation of the relationship between lightning
and environmental factors found that, again as expected,
they vary across the study area (Figures 3(a)–(d)). The
correlation between CAPE and lightning over 17 years
indicated that the majority of the grids (0.5∘ × 0.5∘ ) over
Bangladesh landmass have significant relationship at the
95% confidence level (Figure 3). Specifically, grid cells
from 24.50∘ to 26.00∘ N latitudes and 88.00∘ to 91.00∘ E
longitudes showed positive association with correlation
coefficient of ≥0.80. Note that these locations are rel-
atively drier, compared with other parts of the country.
A few locations along the coastal belt (e.g. centred at
92.00∘ E and 23.50∘ N) also exhibited moderate to strong
correlation.
Apart from those locations, two cells, one in cen-
tral (89.50∘ E and 23.75∘ N) and the other in southwest
(90.25∘ E and 22.25∘ N) Bangladesh revealed significant
positive relationship between CAPE and lightning flash
activity (Figure 3). Extreme northern edge of Bangladesh,
between 88.00∘ and 90.00∘ E and 25.50∘ and 26.50∘ N,
showed significant correlation (at the 95% confidence
level) between convective rain and lightning activity
(Figure 3(b)). In contrast, locations centred at 23.00∘ N
and 90.50∘ E along the Padma–Meghna confluence
showed strong relationship. A similar type of correlation
can be observed between total rain and lightning distri-
bution (Figure 3(c)). As far as the product variable (i.e.
CAPE × precipitation) is concerned, we observed that
northern edge and northern locations (88.50∘ –91.00∘ E
and 24.50∘ –26.75∘ N) of Bangladesh were significantly
correlated (r ≥ 0.7) while locations from 89.00∘ to
91.50∘ E and 23.00∘ to 24.00∘ N showed similar correlation
(r ≥ 0.72) between lightning activity and the product of
CAPE × precipitation (Figure 3(d)).
4. Discussion
4.1. CAPE and lightning activity
CAPE, a conditional instability parameter of the trop-
ical atmosphere (Williams and Renno, 1993), appears
to play a vital role in the occurrence of lightning in
Bangladesh, as it exhibited strong positive correlation at
every timescales. Analysis showed that CAPE increases
from March to May and begins decreasing with the onset of
monsoon. A concomitant increase of lightning with larger
CAPE was also observed; however, there seemed to have
a lag between larger CAPE and maximum lightning activ-
ity in Bangladesh (Figure 2). Interestingly, Yamane and
Hayashi (2006) reported that, over Bangladesh, the maxi-
mum median CAPE occurs in April while Rafiuddin et al.
(2010) showed that the frequency of squall-type systems is
highest in May (Rafiuddin et al., 2010, figure 5). Thus, our
findings are consistent. A range of factors appear to influ-
ence the lag between larger CAPE in April and maximum
lightning activity in May. These include seasonal varia-
tion of surface temperature (Tinmaker and Chate, 2013;
Int. J. Climatol. (2017)
 A. DEWAN et al.

(a) (b)
1400 2000 1400 0.4
Lightning
Lightning 1800 0.35
1200 1200 Total rain

Monthly mean lightning flashes

Monthly mean lightning flashes

CAPE 1600
0.3
1000 1400 1000

Total rain (mm/h)

CAPE (J kg–1)
0.25
1200 800
800
1000 0.2
600 600
800 0.15
400 600 400
0.1
400
200 200 0.05
200
0 0 0 0
Fe ary

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A ly
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D

D
Months Months
(d)
1400 600
(c)
1400 0.25

CAPE × precipitation (J kg–1 mm/h)

1200 Lightning

Monthly mean lightning flashes

Lightning 500
Monthly mean lightning flashes

1200 Convective rain 0.2 1000 CAPE × precipitation

Convective rain (mm/h)
1000 400
800
800 0.15
300
600
600 0.1 200
400
400
0.05 100
200 200

0 0 0 0
Fe ary

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Months Months

Figure 2. Monthly variation of lightning activity over Bangladesh and (a) CAPE, (b) total rain, (c) convective rain, and (d) CAPE × precipitation.

Table 1. Correlation coefficients (r) and significance level (p value) between seasonal and annual mean lightning flashes and different
meteorological variables.

Variables Season Annual

Pre-monsoon Monsoon
r p value r p value r p value
CAPE 0.703** 0.002 0.550* 0.022 0.702** 0.002
Total rain 0.701** 0.002 0.455 0.066 0.058 0.825
Convective rain 0.532* 0.028 0.587* 0.013 0.227 0.282
CAPE × precipitation 0.818* 0.001 0.686** 0.002 0.375 0.138
*Significant at the 0.05 level; ** significant at the 0.01 level.

Siingh et al., 2015), increase in lapse rate due to advec-
tion of southerly and southwesterly warm air in the lower
troposphere and northwesterly cold air in the middle tro-
posphere (Ranalkar and Chaudhari, 2009), strong local
convection due to thermal structure of the troposphere
(Yamane and Hayashi, 2006; Das et al., 2015) and orog-
raphy and prevailing synoptic conditions (Goswami et al.,
2010; Murugavel et al., 2014). Our finding of a secondary
peak in both parameters (e.g. CAPE and lightning flash)
during monsoon (June–October) agrees with the findings
for northeastern India (Ranalkar and Chaudhari, 2009; Tin-
maker and Ali, 2012; Kumar et al., 2016).
On seasonal timescale, we found that CAPE had
high and moderate relationship with lightning during
pre-monsoon (r = 0.703; p = 0.002) and monsoon
(r = 0.550; p = 0.022). Although the result for monsoon
season is consistent with other studies (Pawar et al., 2012;
Murugavel et al., 2014; Siingh et al., 2014), pre-monsoon
season results contradict with Murugavel et al. (2014)
who reported little effect of CAPE on lightning during
pre-monsoon in Indian region. This could be attributed to
the scale of analysis and synoptic system (Goswami et al.,
2010). In addition, pre-monsoon climate of Bangladesh
is influenced by a variety of factors such as conditional
instability related to subsidence of Hadley circulation (Qie
et al., 2014), low-level convergence (Saha and Quadir,
2016), presence of moisture gradient or dry line (Weston,
1972), vertical wind shear (Yamane and Hayashi, 2006)

© 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. (2017)

 LIGHTNING IN BANGLADESH

Figure 3. (a)–(d) Clockwise correlation maps of lightning activity versus CAPE, convective rain, total rain and CAPE × precipitation. The correlation
was based on monthly mean for 17 years. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com].

© 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. (2017)

 A. DEWAN et al.
and land surface properties (Medina et al., 2010) – all
of which potentially provide necessary ingredients for
increased severe storms and lightning activity.
On the other hand, lightning activity is reduced con-
siderably during the monsoon season with simultaneous
lowering of CAPE. The reduction of CAPE during mon-
soon is mainly attributed to maritime cloud cover with
low cloud-base height (Pawar et al., 2012) and shift-
ing of the convective system (Romatschke and Houze,
2011; Qie et al., 2014; Choudhury et al., 2015). Wu et al.
(2013) showed that south slope of the Himalayas, partic-
ularly mid-latitude regions, is the active region of con-
vective activity during monsoon (Figures 3(b) and (d))
(Wu et al., 2013). As noted above, topographic forcing of
the region also supports the formation of deep convec-
tion during monsoon (Romatschke et al., 2010). Conse-
quently, deep convective activity reduces to a greater extent
in Bangladesh, causing smaller CAPE and low lightning
activity compared with pre-monsoon. Although several
studies reported a positive correlation between lightning
and CAPE, Adams and Souza (2009) noticed that the rela-
tionship depends on orography and local meteorological
conditions. We have also obtained reasonably strong rela-
tionship between lightning activity and CAPE on annual
scale (r = 0.702 at the 99% confidence interval), indicat-
ing that CAPE has a significant role in the occurrence of
lightning. It is noted in the scientific literature that lower
elevation contributes to higher CAPE and larger precipi-
tating areas (Xu, 2013). This also applies to Bangladesh as
it is a low-lying area.
To further examine the role of CAPE on daily lightning
activity, box-and-whisker plots were prepared to compare
CAPE distribution patterns between no-flash-detected
days (NFDs) and flash-detected days (FDs). Daily CAPE
data for Dhaka (23.76∘ N and 90.38∘ E), from 1998 to
2014 at 0000 UTC (local time 0600), was obtained from
radiosonde observation provided by the University of
Wyoming (http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding
.html). To limit the influence of extreme values, we
Figure 4. Box-and-whisker plot showing variation in CAPE values between NFDs and FDs. Boxes denote the 25th–75th percentiles, with horizontal
bar at the median value. Dashed vertical likes (whiskers) extend to the minimum and maximum values. The circles outside the box are outliers.
© 2017 Royal Meteorological Society
Table 2. Summary of daily satellite overpass, flash/no-flash and
CAPE values for Bangladesh.
Satellite overpass No satellite Total
overpass
Flash No-flash
CAPE 1049a 1173a 44 2266
No CAPE 1062 2831 52 3945
Total 2111 4004 96 6211
a Days used in the analysis.
conducted a ‘qualitative’ Quality Assurance and Quality
Control (QA/QC) and removed a few (5 out of 2222 CAPE
records) extremely large values (>6000 J kg−1 ) from the
daily time series. In addition, non-zero CAPE values were
taken into account. This analysis was completed for the
entire time series (17 years). To allow comparison between
CAPE and lightning activity, analyses were restricted to
days when data for both variables were available. Light-
ning data were regarded as present for days on which
the TRMM LIS satellite made a pass over Bangladesh,
whether or not lightning flashes were recorded. Owing
to the limited availability of radiosonde CAPE data,
only 36% of days were used to establish the relationship
between CAPE and lightning activity (Table 2).
The results indicated that median CAPE value for FDs
exceeded that of NFDs, for each year of the study period
(Figure 4). One should, however, be cautious with this
result as radiosonde data may not reflect actual convec-
tive activity during FDs and NFDs due to the fact that
CAPE measurements represented early morning (local
time). Unfortunately, the longest available time series of
CAPE data for Bangladesh is associated with 0000 UTC
(0600 local time), otherwise a more robust result could
have been captured as lightning peaks in the late afternoon
(approximately ∼1200 UTC) over South Asia (Kandal-
gaonkar et al., 2003). Furthermore, it was observed that
CAPE values increased from 2008 onwards (Figure 4).
Pawar et al. (2012) and Murugavel et al. (2012) reported
Int. J. Climatol. (2017)
 LIGHTNING IN BANGLADESH
similar increases in CAPE over India. While it is still
unclear why the temporal shift in CAPE occurred over
Bangladesh, it is possible that climate warming and the
ENSO phenomena may have played a role.
4.2. Rainfall and lightning activity
Although rainfall and lightning activities are found to be
associated, on a monthly basis, with a correlation coeffi-
cient of 0.734 (at the 99% confidence level), the relation-
ship at seasonal scale was low, relative to monthly scale,
while there was no statistically significant relationship
found on an annual scale (Table 1). However, our finding
agrees with Lal and Pawar (2009), Siingh et al. (2014,
2015) and Price and Federmesser (2006) but contradicts
with Zheng et al. (2016). Lal and Pawar (2009) indicated
that total rainfall has the highest correlation with lightning
activity during pre-monsoon (r = 0.94) than monsoon sea-
son (r = 0.53). We also found positive correlation during
pre-monsoon (r = 0.663) than monsoon (r = 0.455). Rela-
tively low correlation in this study may be attributed to a
variety of factors such as mesoscale convective system of
the region (Choudhury et al., 2015), seasonal transition of
precipitation characteristics (Ono and Takahashi, 2016),
cloud height, intensity of rainfall, ice content per lightning
flash and properties of precipitation systems (Islam and
Uyeda, 2008; Lal and Pawar, 2009; Rafiuddin et al.,
2010). Rafiuddin et al. (2010) reported that precipita-
tion related to squall lines dominates during pre-monsoon
while widespread precipitation associated with monsoonal
troughs and depressions are common during monsoon.
These could be the reasons of having moderate correlation
between lightning activity and rainfall during monsoon
in this study. Zheng et al. (2016), however, found an
inverse relation between lightning and rainfall in the
Pearl River delta and Leizhou Peninsula in China. They
noted land–offshore contrast (i.e. surface characteristics)
played a role. Liou and Kar (2010) also reported that the
relationship between lightning and rainfall varied with
season, climatic conditions and geographical location.
A somewhat similar correlation coefficient (r) between
convective rain and lightning activity was obtained for
monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons (Table 1). This was
unexpected considering that monsoon season experienced
relatively low amount of convective rain than pre-monsoon
season. Note, however, that a strong relationship was
observed on a monthly scale (r = 0.878 at the 99% con-
fidence level) and a weak relationship on annual timescale
(Table 1). Our result contrasts with the finding of Lal
and Pawar (2009) in Central India but agrees with Tin-
maker and Ali (2012) over northeast India. Although
the results are not directly comparable to those noted
above, we believe that the difference in correlations may
have been caused by the amount of rain yield per light-
ning flash. Tinmaker and Ali (2012) examined convective
rainfall and lightning activity over northeast India from
1998 to 2007 and found that the rain yield value during
monsoon is greater than pre-monsoon due to differences
in cloud microphysical and electrical properties. Other
© 2017 Royal Meteorological Society
research also demonstrated that thunderstorms producing
more lightning tend to yield low rainfall (Williams et al.,
1992; Zipser, 1994). Precipitation pattern and characteris-
tics (Romatschke et al., 2010) may also be responsible for
such subtle variation as rain yield varies according to cli-
matic regime. Soriano et al. (2001), for instance, reported
that the relationship between convective precipitation and
cloud-to-ground was higher for semi-arid zone (0.75) than
for the humid zone (0.65).
4.3. CAPE × precipitation and lightning activity
Lightning flash appears to be directly proportional to
CAPE × precipitation in Bangladesh (Figure 2(d)). Romps
et al. (2014) found that CAPE × precipitation explains
77% of the variance in lightning flash rate while we found
89% variance on monthly scale. Both pre-monsoon and
monsoon exhibited significant positive relationship. How-
ever, correlation was weak on annual timescale (Table 1),
which signifies strong seasonality in lightning activity
which is also observed elsewhere (Kumar et al., 2016). As
Romps et al. (2014) used only 1-year data to demonstrate
the relationship, this may be the reason for large variance
in their study. In contrast, we used 17 years data to examine
the relationship. Hence, the sensitivity of lightning to the
product variable on a longer timescale appears to diminish.
A similar observation was reported between lightning and
temperature by Williams (2005).
4.4. Grid-based correlation maps
Spatial maps of correlation coefficient suggest that few
locations in the northern part of Bangladesh exhibited
significant positive relationship (Figures 3(a)–(d)). As
these locations are relatively drier compared with other
parts (Shahid, 2011), this reinforces observation by Price
(2009a) that drier climate supports more lightning activ-
ity which is also observed by others in the region (Siingh
et al., 2015). Furthermore, squall lines developed over
this area during pre-monsoon season (Rafiuddin et al.,
2010) also support sustained lightning activity. As four
grid-based correlation maps exhibited positive correlation
somewhere at the same locations, we believe that this has
not occurred at random.
5. Conclusions
To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study
of its kind to evaluate environmental factors associated
with lightning occurrence in Bangladesh using LIS data,
ERA reanalysis and TRMM monthly products. Three
timescales – monthly, seasonal and annual – were used to
understand the association between lightning and several
environmental parameters. In addition, a series of correla-
tion maps were developed that revealed important spatial
aspects of lightning which may be useful for improving
local-scale climatic models.
Among four variables employed in this study, CAPE
stood out to be the major factor affecting lightning activity
over Bangladesh as it indicated statistically significant
Int. J. Climatol. (2017)
 A. DEWAN et al.
correlation at monthly, seasonal and annual timescales.
Therefore, CAPE could be an important indicator for
predicting thunderstorms-related lightning in Bangladesh.
While the relationship between total rain and light-
ning activity is strong at monthly and seasonal scales,
it appeared that the relationship is weak at a longer
timescale (e.g. annual). A similar type of finding is also
noted between lightning activity and the product of CAPE
and precipitation variable. The spatial maps of correla-
tion coefficient showed that, generally, northern part of
Bangladesh had higher positive and significant correlation,
suggesting that relatively drier climate tends to produce
more lightning. As moist convection is expected to be
stronger in warmer climate (Hartmann, 2002), further rise
in global temperature due to anthropogenic activities could
enhance the risk of lightning activity in Bangladesh, and
placing it at par with other natural hazards (e.g. floods).
Hence, the findings of this research are expected to assist
improved forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activ-
ity. In addition, the results are particularly relevant for
densely populated countries in the world.
As lightning activity is expected to increase in the
future, use of meteorological models to understand
spatio-temporal pattern under warmer climate deserves
attention. In addition, mechanisms behind observed rela-
tionship between lightning and environmental variables
require further investigation to examine spatially varying
factors (e.g. topography) accountable for lightning activity
over Bangladesh and elsewhere.
Acknowledgements
We would like to express our gratitude to Prof. Daniel
Cecil, Dr. Dennis E. Buechler, Ronald Holle and M. I. R.
Tinmaker for assisting us on various occasions during the
progress of this work. We are highly indebted to them.
We very much appreciate the careful and constructive
comments of three anonymous reviewers that significantly
improved the original submission.
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