Russia–Pakistan Strategic Relations

An Emerging Entente Cordiale

Introduction
Since the famous American raid in 2011 that killed Osama bin Laden and given the US
exceptional favor to India’s nuclear ambitions, Islamabad has gradually moved away from the
United States, deepened Pakistan’s relations with China, and sought rapprochement with
Russia. While Pakistan’s strategic relations with China have been developing for more than
five decades, Islamabad’s relations with Moscow are new, evolving for less than a decade.
Russia has always preferred India to Pakistan and shied away from any proactive role in
conflict reso- lution between India and Pakistan.
Additionally, Russia has been unsure of Pakistan’s future and its strategic direction. In South
Asia, Moscow seems to balance. Pakistan is a relatively small power undergoing internal and
economic perils. It cannot match India’s power potential and offer the same scope of political,
strategic, and economic influence

The relationship between Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) and Pakistan has been
complex and marked by periods of cooperation, mistrust, and rivalry. Here is an overview of
their relationship from 1947 to 1990:
1. Early Years (1947-1950s):
 After Pakistan's independence from British India in 1947, the Soviet Union was
among the first countries to recognize Pakistan.
 Initially, both countries maintained cordial relations, with the Soviet Union
offering economic and technical assistance to Pakistan.
2. Alignment with the West (1950s-1960s):
 In the 1950s, Pakistan started developing close ties with the United States and
joined various military and economic alliances, including the Central Treaty
Organization (CENTO) and the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO).
 The Soviet Union viewed Pakistan's alignment with the West and its military
ties with the U.S. as detrimental to its own influence in the region.
 As a result, Soviet-Pakistani relations became strained, and the Soviet Union
grew closer to Pakistan's rival, India.
 3. Détente and Limited Cooperation (1970s):
 In the 1970s, a period of détente between the superpowers provided an
opportunity for a limited rapprochement between Pakistan and the Soviet
Union.
 After a military coup in Pakistan in 1977, General Zia-ul-Haq came to power
and sought to improve relations with the Soviet Union.
 The Soviet Union, facing its own geopolitical challenges in Afghanistan,
engaged in talks and provided some economic assistance to Pakistan.
4. Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan (1979-1989):
 The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 marked a turning point in Soviet-
Pakistani relations.
 Pakistan became a key player in supporting the Afghan Mujahideen resistance
against the Soviet forces.
 The U.S., along with Saudi Arabia and other regional allies, supported Pakistan
and the Mujahideen, providing them with weapons and financial aid.
 The Soviet occupation of Afghanistan strained relations between Pakistan and
the Soviet Union, as Pakistan became a base for training and arming the
Mujahideen, many of whom were supported by the CIA.
5. Post-cold war Era (1990):
 With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia emerged as its successor
state.
 In the post-Soviet era, Russia sought to maintain cordial relations with both
Pakistan and India.
 While the legacy of the Afghan war and historical mistrust persisted, Russia
gradually expanded its engagement with Pakistan in the fields of trade, defense,
and counterterrorism cooperation.
 Emergence of SCO , Pakitan wanted to become member of it and Russa
welcome it … Pakistan join sco in 2017
Overall, from 1947 to 1990, the Soviet Union/Russia-Pakistan relationship was marked by
periods of cooperation, particularly during the 1970s détente and limited cooperation, but also
by significant strains, especially during Pakistan's alignment with the West and the Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan.

Russia and Pakistan have been working to improve their bilateral

relations in recent years.
Historically, the relationship between the two countries has been complex, with periods of
cooperation and periods of tension. However, in recent times, both countries have shown a
willingness to enhance their ties in various areas. Here's a small overview of Russia-Pakistan
relations:

1. Military Cooperation: Russia and Pakistan have strengthened their military

cooperation through joint exercises and arms deals. In 2016, the two countries conducted
their first-ever joint military exercise called "Friendship." Since then, several military
exercises have taken place, including the naval exercise "AMAN" in the Arabian Sea. In
2018, Russia delivered Mi-35 Hind-E attack helicopters to Pakistan, further enhancing
defense ties.

2. Economic and Trade Relations: Russia and Pakistan have also been exploring
opportunities to boost economic and trade relations. Both countries have expressed interest
in increasing bilateral trade and investment. In 2019, a Russian-Pakistani Business Forum
was held in Moscow to promote economic cooperation and explore potential areas of
collaboration.

3. Diplomatic Engagements: High-level diplomatic engagements between Russia

and Pakistan have increased in recent years. In 2018, Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan
visited Russia, and in 2019, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Pakistan.
These visits have helped to strengthen political and diplomatic ties between the two
countries.

4. Regional Cooperation: Russia and Pakistan have cooperated on regional

issues, including their shared interest in promoting peace and stability in Afghanistan. Both
countries have participated in multilateral initiatives, such as the Moscow Format and the
Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process, aimed at finding a peaceful resolution to the Afghan
conflict.

5. Russia interest in BRI

Russia is interested in china BRI project and want connectivity that’s why is shaking hands
with pakikstan

6. Energy Cooperation: Energy cooperation is another area of interest for Russia

and Pakistan. There have been discussions about potential collaboration in energy projects,
including the possibility of Russian companies investing in Pakistan's energy sector.

7. Technology corporation
Changing nature of war hybrid warfare incrse the chances to cooperate in technological
sector
It is important to note that while Russia and Pakistan have made progress in improving their
relations, their partnership is still evolving and faces certain challenges. Factors such as
geopolitical considerations, regional dynamics, and existing alliances of both countries can
influence the trajectory of their relationship.
Conclusion:
Russia–Pakistan relations have grown under the shadow of dramatic shifts in geopolitical
competition and deteriorating regional security in South Asia. Pakistan’s diminished role as a
frontline state in the US war on terror in Afghanistan and India’s rise as an Asian power have
affected Pakistani threat perceptions Western powers prefer Indian hegemony as a model of
stability rather than a balance of power and resolution of the complex nature of India–Pakistan
conflict. With this premise, Islamabad began to hedge Pakistan’s bets and reached out to Russia
and China. Pakistan’s and India’s membership in the SCO has allowed Pakistan a forum in
which to expand its strategic and economic interests and balance against Indian moves to
diplomatically isolate Pakistan.With increasing geopolitical importance, however, especially
after China’s BRI featured the CPEC as its flagship project, Pakistan’s geophysical location
found new geo-economic significance. With the United States imposing sanctions on Russia in
the wake of the Crimea and East Ukraine crises, Moscow has reached out Beijing and
expanded its interests to Southwest and South Asia.Pakistan can provide win- win solution in
BRI and regional connectivity.

RUSSIA UKRAIN
1. Background:
 The conflict began in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea, a region previously
under Ukrainian control.
 Following the annexation, pro-Russian separatist movements emerged in
eastern Ukraine, leading to a series of clashes between Ukrainian forces and
separatist militias.
2. Escalation and Full-Scale War:
 The conflict escalated in 2014, with both sides accusing each other of aggression
and violations of ceasefires.
 Russia provided military support to the separatist groups, including weapons,
troops, and logistical assistance.
 The conflict intensified into a full-scale war in eastern Ukraine, primarily in the
Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

3. On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded and occupied

parts of Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which
had begun in 2014. The invasion has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on both
sides, and instigated Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II. The Feb. 24,
 2022, invasion has touched off a refugee crisis, as Ukrainians flee the conflict in their
homeland and many Russian men seek to avoid conscription.
4. Humanitarian Crisis:
 The war resulted in a significant humanitarian crisis, with thousands of people
killed and millions displaced from their homes.
 Heavy fighting, shelling, and landmines caused civilian casualties and extensive
damage to infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, and residential areas.
5. International Response:
 The international community condemned Russia's actions and imposed
economic sanctions on Russia in response to the annexation of Crimea and its
involvement in the war.
 Diplomatic efforts, including negotiations and peace talks, were made to resolve
the conflict, but a lasting solution has not been reached.

This crisis has significant economic and political implications for the entire world
including Pakistan.
 The surge in global oil prices, disruptions in the supply of agricultural products, and
decrease in foreign investment could lead to serious economic problems for these
countries.
 Additionally, the crisis could lead to increased arms sales, strained relationships with
Russia, and heightened tensions with India.
 One of the most significant economic impacts of this crisis is global oil prices. As a
result of the sanctions imposed on Russia, there will be a disruption in the supply of
Brent crude oil, which could lead to a global shortage of oil.
 This shortage could result in higher prices for oil and gas, which would increase the
cost of living for people in Pakistan.

Pakistan has maintained trade relations with both Russia and Ukraine, and these
relationships have been particularly important for imports of wheat.
 In 2020, Pakistan faced acute wheat shortages due to mismanagement and failed crops.
 Pakistan is caught in a complex situation diplomatically as it wishes to keep the
relations with both Russia and the West and European countries including the USA.
 Due to poor experience in camp politics Pakistan cannot go against Russia at UNGA
to stay neutral and he West may compell Pakistan to review its stance against Russia.
 In such a situation the government and stakeholders should maintain diplomatic ties
with Russia and China for geopolitical reasons as this crisis would not be resolved so
quickly. It is important for policymakers and the government of Pakistan to monitor the
situation closely and take measures to mitigate the potential impacts of the crisis.
Following the Russian invasion in Ukraine, Pakistan would likely consider a range of
foreign policy options. Here are some potential considerations for Pakistan:

1. Maintain Neutrality:
 Pakistan may choose to maintain a neutral stance and not take sides in the
conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
 By doing so, Pakistan can avoid antagonizing either Russia or its allies, while
preserving its own diplomatic and economic interests.

2. Strengthen Regional Alliances:

 Pakistan could seek to strengthen its alliances and partnerships with regional
countries, particularly those who share concerns about Russian aggression.
 This may involve deepening cooperation with countries like India, China,
Turkey, and Gulf states, who may also have an interest in countering Russian
influence.

3. Support Diplomatic Efforts:

 Pakistan could actively support diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict
between Russia and Ukraine.
 This may involve advocating for peaceful negotiations, supporting international
mediation initiatives, or offering diplomatic assistance to facilitate dialogue.

4. Enhance Defense and Security Cooperation:

 Given Pakistan's historical defense ties with Russia, it may carefully reassess its
defense and security cooperation.
 Pakistan could explore opportunities to diversify its defense partnerships and
strengthen cooperation with countries that are not directly involved in the
conflict, such as the United States, European Union states, or other regional
powers.

5. Economic Diversification:
 Pakistan might prioritize efforts to diversify its economic partnerships and
reduce reliance on any single country or region.
 This could involve expanding trade relations with non-Russian markets,
attracting foreign investment from diverse sources, and exploring new
economic opportunities beyond traditional partners.

6. Humanitarian Assistance:
 Pakistan could consider providing humanitarian assistance to Ukraine or
supporting international relief efforts for the affected population.
  This would demonstrate Pakistan's commitment to international norms and
humanitarian values, while also projecting a positive image on the global stage.
Ultimately, Pakistan's foreign policy response to the Russian invasion in Ukraine would depend
on a variety of factors, including its assessment of regional and global dynamics, its own
national interests, and the stance of key allies and partners