Ph.D.

Synopsis

Topic- Changing dynamics of Indo-Russia relations in an era of global

crisis :Comparative analysis of factors shaping the respective foreign policies towards
each other in the 21st century.

By: Mir Abdul Mujeeb

INTRODUCTION
The World has witnessed intense global power rivalries towards the latter end of the
previous decade . The narrowing gulf between the global powers in
economic ,technological and military domains, has thrown up a multipolar world
order characterised by the rise of Asian powers - China and India.While China’s
determined rise under Xi Jinping has brought it at the cusp of displacing U.S as the
reigning superpower of the world, India's ascension in the 21st century and an
assertive foreign policy push under the Modi era too hasn't gone unnoticed and
needs a detailed examination.Simultaneously the global power scenario has
witnessed a retreat of US hegemony symbolised by the setbacks it faced in Syria
and more recently in Afghanistan. It is in the shadows of these shifting tectonics
that a resurgent Russia led by Vladimir Putin has risen through the ranks creating
ripples in the global power scales and setting the stage for a return of a 'Coldwar
2.0 ' confrontation with the West .

The war in Ukraine represents the climax of a series of manoeuvres right from the
annexation of Crimea unleashed by Putin led Russia that in view of many political
analysts seeks to ‘restore the glorious past of the Soviet era’ and to counter what
Russia calls ‘an eastward expansion of NATO’.

Furthermore the ongoing Ladakh standoff con ict between India and China is
posing a fundamental challenge to Russia‘s foreign policy. The China-India standoff
at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Himalayas typi ed by Galwan valley
clashes in Ladakh emerged as a serious test for Russia‘s policy in Asia. Despite
Moscow‘s proximity to Beijing, the Russia-China connection is still far from an
alliance relationship. India and China are both strategic partners, so Moscow has
been following the situation with a cautious approach toward their border crisis .

Russia can be a key factor to resolve the issue because it has good relations with
both India and China. Russia hosted a meeting in June ,2020 with the Chinese and
Indian foreign ministers in Moscow as part of the Russia-India-China trilateral
grouping (RIC)
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It is in this backdrop of these events that India's relationship with Russia needs a
holistic and in-depth study especially in the immediate years gone by.
A GLIMPSE INTO THE HISTORICAL NATURE OF INDO -RUSSIA TIES SPANNING THE
SOVIET ERA & IMMEDIATELY AFTER ITS COLLAPSE:
India’s diplomatic relations with Russia began before India achieved independence.
Russia was one of the rst countries to recognise Indian independence in 1947 to
strengthen its image as anti-imperialist. By the mid-1950s, India and the Soviet Union
(Russia, before disintegration, was known as Soviet Union/USSR) appeared all poised to
establish closer relationships and help India in attaining economic self-suf ciency through
investment in heavy industries.This was characterised by the following signi cant
milestones:

• The Soviet Union invested in various new enterprises in energy production, mining,
steel plants, and heavy machine building.
• The two countries, in 1962, agreed to begin a program of military-technical
cooperation. In 1971, a historic moment in relations between both countries was the
signing of the Treaty of Peace and Friendship in August, 1971.
• In the 1990s, relations between both countries severely changed after the dissolution
of the Soviet Union, as India- Russia entered into a new Treaty of Friendship and
Cooperation in 1993 and a bilateral Military-Technical Cooperation agreement in
1994.
After the collapse of the erstwhile USSR, the successor state i.e., Russia became a pale
shadow of its predecessor . From such an economically crippled old friend, it was very
uncertain for India to get nancial and technological support.
It was in this backdrop that political scientists like Francis Fukuyama proclaimed the end of
Cold War as the ‘end of history’.The typical Ideological rigidity was abolished in world
politics very quickly just after the end of the Cold War. After the end of the Cold War
decades old confrontational bloc politics was put to an end. Russia became free from
ideological compulsion. After the conclusion of START-I and Start-II between the USA and
Russia, it was clear to India that the intensity of hostility between the two superpowers has
been abolished. That is why India decided to tilt towards the USA without discarding its
relations with Russia. But, viewing Moscow’s weaker diplomatic standpoint and
compromising approach and absence of say in world politics New Delhi decided to shake
diplomatic hands with Washington. Despite India’s closeness with the USA India never
went against Russia on any issue in international politics. Moreover, India has established
economic, technological, and defence relations with Russia.
In some cases, India has gained good experience and in some cases, India has to be a
sufferer. However, India is trying to balancing its Russia policy with new complex equations
with the changes in time. India‘s relations with Russia have been very complex in recent
times. For instance Cohen (2005) argues that in negotiating a large number of contacts
and arms purchases from the Soviet Union, Indians found Moscow though. Yet even
questionable deals became politically palatable because the Russians were silent about
the terms of a deal once it was completed.
A renewed effort strengthen the bilateral relationship was made at the beginning of the
presidency of Vladimir Putin in 2000 when the annual summits between India and Russia
were instituted. In 2010, marking a decade of the Declaration on Strategic Partnership
between the two countries, the joint statement proclaimed that the relationship had
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 reached ‘the level of a special and privileged strategic partnership’.Indo-Russian
diplomatic relations got setback on the issue of CTBT (1996) and the explosion of a
nuclear bomb at Pokhran in 1998. Russia was agreed with Western countries including the
USA that India should sign on CTBT. Most of the countries of Europe, the USA and China
had imposed economic sanctions on India, but Russia opposed it. The USA led West
European countries had pressurized Russia to discontinue its nuclear assistance to India,
but Russia refused to accept the American dictation in this regard. This was diplomatic
support for India. Russian Prime Minister visited India at the end of 1998. This visit was
diplomatically very signi cant to India after Pokhran-II. During his visit, he gave a proposal
to India to form a strategic triangle including China. India and Russia had set up a joint
working group in Afghanistan to assist the Northern Alliance to ght against the Taliban.
The process of re-establishing the multi-dimensional relationship has been long; it has also
had to contend with the geopolitical and geo-economic shifts both at the regional and
global levels. This has required the two countries to overcome the old romanticism of the
Indo-Soviet ties and engage at a pragmatic level.
Overview of ties at the dawn of 21st century
With the conclusion of ―Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership in October
2000, India-Russia ties have acquired a qualitatively new character with an enhanced level
of cooperation in almost all areas of the bilateral relationship including, political, security,
trade and economy, defense, science and technology, and culture. However, the growing
strategic relations between India and the USA are affecting India-Russia relations. Despite
India‘s closeness with the USA, it is purchasing an adequate quantity of defense
equipment. Russia is very much concerned about India‘s strategic engagement in the
Indo-Paci c region. This development leads Russia to make a friendliness with China in
the South China Sea and adjacent region. However, India should not assert any reactive
attitude towards Russia viewing its long-lasting relations. The positive side is both states
have agreed in developing ties with third countries will affect bilateral relations. Moscow
and Beijing have developed a closer military collaboration. India should try to maintain a
balance between Russia and China in exercising strategic and diplomatic relations.
Russia and India attach a lot of importance to their interaction in the energy sector, which
embraces the construction and modernisation of hydroelectric and thermal power plants.
In 2006, the rst assembly block of the Tehri hydro power plant (Uttaranchal) – the tallest
dam in Asia-erected with Russian assistance was commissioned. At the same time,
Silovye Mashiny (power machines) of Russia and Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL)
concluded a contract on the joint modernisation of ve power generating units of the Obra
thermal power plant (Uttar Pradesh), with an aggregate capacity of 1,000 MWe. Most
power generating units in India use equipment manufactured by BHEL according to
Russian designs.
During summit meetings held at the outset of the 21st century, the leaders of our nations
concluded a number of signi cant accords, including those relating to bilateral contacts in
science and technology.
In the year 2000, an agreement was reached between the two countries on the creation of
an Inter-governmental Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation, inter-governmental
accords were signed on the purchase and production in India of cutting-edge Russian
tanks, armoured vehicles and ghter aircraft under Russian licenses and also on the
transfer to India of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft-carrier.
In his rst visit to India in October 2000, Putin in his sentimental address to the Indian
Parliament had captured all the aforesaid thus:
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 ‘This is my rst visit to India. I am sincerely touched by the friendliness, sincerity and ...
cordiality that we experience on the Indian soil. This is proof that Russian-Indian relations
are free of any political uctuations. They are stable, rm and they are not altered by
time... our relations with India have always been and remain one of the most important
areas of Russian foreign policy, and they have a special in uence and signi cance for us‘
Twenty years down the line there is no denying the mutual trust and friendship that exists
between the two countries albeit with a host of challenges that deserve a holistic study.
Literature Review:
In a recently published research work, Kapoor (2019) in his ORF occasional paper
titled “Indi -Russia ties in a changing world order “ has mentioned India and Russia
shared decades of close linkages at the highest levels during the Soviet era. The
tumult of the immediate post-Soviet years, however, reverberated through the Indo-
Russia relationship as well, as the newly established Russian Federation sought to
rebuild its foreign policy. The years immediately following the collapse of the Soviet
Union saw the Boris Yeltsin administration adopting a pro-Western foreign policy
orientation (Kapoor, 2019). Both New Delhi and Moscow had tried their best to
rejuvenate the old friendship. After 22 years of Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace,
Friendship and Cooperation (1971), both had concluded a ―Treaty of Friendship
and Cooperation in January 1993. India and Russia went for Although in early
19990s India did not purchase much volume of arms from Russia, but continued its
defense connectivity with its old friend. By the mid-1990s, Russia‘s exports to India
and China were contributing 41 % of the total revenue of its defense industry
(Conley, 2000, p. 11). After the end of the Cold War, Russia took a policy to reduce
its arms manufacture. But, at the same time, to generate revenue by selling arms
was a source of national income of Russia. To survive its arms industry Russia tried
to conclude arms selling treaties with several countries. In 1992, India and Russia
had negotiated for arms agreements .
A particularly high point since then has been the evolution from ―a purely buyer-
seller relationship to joint research, design development, and production of state of
the art military platforms (The Embassy of India, 2019) -a successful example of it
being the Brahmos missile. The two areas also involved in the indigenous
production of tanks and ghter jets, along with the upgrade of existing systems. In
2017, on the occasion of 70th years of establishment of diplomatic relations
between India and Russia, PM Modi invited Russia as the Guest of Honour for the
St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). During his visit, he tried to
normalize bilateral relations.
Nandan Unnikrishnan in his article on Indo-Russia relations argues that Russia has
recently started viewing South Asia, and India in particular, from a tactical prism.
Within Russia, the worldview amongst the political and business elite is churning.
Russia is engaged with the task of making itself an indispensable power in many
parts of the world because it is worried that instead of a polycentric world, a bipolar
one might re-emerge with U.S and China poised for a protracted superpower
standoff. If, however, it becomes a power without whom some of the problems
af icting the world cannot be solved including terrorism, Syria,Afghanistan, and
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North Korea then it believes that it signi cantly improves its chances of staying
relevant as a great power in whatever new world architecture emerges. Therefore it
makes efforts to ll the vacuum wherever it perceives indecision on the part of a
great power.
Katherine Foshko( Russia Studies Fellow ,Geoeconomics Studies) points out that
despite the odd differences,there are still great stories of goodwill between Russia
and India, not just because of their historic relationship, but also due to the
enduring political trust linking the two countries: they almost always vote the same
way at the United Nations and Russia has shown support for India’s inclusion in the
UN Security Council.
A lot has been written on the historic nature of the ties but there is dearth of
literature on the evolving scenario especially in wake of some of the major crises
unfolding in such rapid succession involving India & Russia on the global
chessboard.This is what the proposed research study will focus on.

Objectives:

The main objectives of the study are:

1) To understand the fundamental pillars of Indo -Russia relationship with

focus on the past two decades (2000- 2022) and understand the respective
foreign policies towards each other.

2) To examine the recent events shaping the relationship including the

ongoing war in Ukraine .

3) To analayse areas of co-operation between India & Russia with focus on

synergies in multilateral organizations like BRICS, SCO & UN.

HYPOTHESIS

1) Indo-Russia relationship has stood the test of time. Pragmatic realism is

guiding the special relationship as both the countries fully understand that
Russia is not the erstwhile mighty USSR while India of 21st century is no
longer dependent on Russia as it used to be in the 20th century.
Consequently mutual respect and mutual bene t is at the heart of their
diplomatic engagement.

2) Despite being under immense external pressure especially in wake of

recent Ukraine con ict, India has maintained a steady relationship with
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Russia which is testimony to its stand of maintaining strategic autonomy in its
foreign policy.

3) India faces the peculiar prospects of balancing the opposites. Being a part
of US led QUAD on the one side and Russia-China initiatives like SCO,
Indian foreign policy makers face a tight rope walk.

Research Methodology:
The study involves an extensive analysis of Indo-Russian
relations especially in the past decade typi ed by the Modi-
Putin era in the two respective countries.
The proposed research would use both quantitative
research and Qualitative Research techniques. In
quantitative research techniques like analytical technique
and comparative analytical technique where data will be
taken from the different sources which includes extensive
literature review of geopolitics, books, journal articles,
conference papers, think tank reports, government
websites, government or quasi-government publications and
organisations concerned with Indo-Russia relations and
tracking respective foreign policies . The data will be then
analysed and ndings will be presented. In qualitative
research techniques like historical research technique will
be used. the historical relations between the India and
Russia(formerly USSR) is well known. There is also a good
amount of Indian diaspora in Russia and vice versa.This will
help in conducting holistic research.While collecting this
entire data, research ethics will be kept in mind as well.
TENTATIVE CHAPTERIZATION

The research study will include the following 7 chapters:

1) Introduction: It will explain the signi cance of the topic, Hypothesis and
the methodology which will be used to conduct the research.
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 2) Pillars of Co-operation between India-Russia :It will explore broadly the
traditional pillars that bind the relationship viz Politics, Defence, Civil Nuclear
energy, Bilateral trade, Anti-terrorism.

3) Areas of friction: It will hinge on mutual concerns between the two as to

how India views Russia's growing proximity to China and a rather unusual
warming up to Pakistan while at the same time evaluating the Russian world
Calculus and how it weighs the deepening Indo-US partnership .

4) Comparison of foreign policy responses in a era of crisis:

With the twin crisis of covid-19 & Ukraine war having ripple effects on the
globe ,this chapter will deal with how both the countries have approached this
era of crisis.

Typi ed by Modi's exhortation to Putin that ' today's era is not of war ' , it will
dwell on the respective responses as well as the similarities and contrasts
between the two.

5) Promotion of core national interests as against western idealism

This chapter will analyse how India's engagement with Russia esp buying of
Russian oil and S-400 missile defense system stacks up against growing
western pressure on it .

It will dwell on whether India has managed to walk the tight rope without
antagonizing either West or Russia .

6) Striving for a multipolarity : This chapter will study aspects relating to

India's yearn for UNSC permanent membership as well as role of Russia in
this endeavour.

It will also try to understand how both Russia and India have a shared interest
in preventing the return to bipolarity in view of a rising China confronting the
U. S. It will try to understand the necessity of Russia of maintaining leverage
in Central Asia ,preventing it from becoming a subordinate power to China
and the Indian co-operation in carving out a multipolar world order bene cial
to both of them.

7) Conclusion: The ndings of research will be summed up in this chapter

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 Bibliography
Does the elephant dance by David M Malone

Pax Indica by Shashi Tharoor

The India Way : Strategies for an Uncertain World by S Jaishankar

Cooley, A. (2012). Great games, local rules: The new great power contest in central Asia. Oxford
University Press.

Ahmed, S. (2017, November). India‘s foreign policy in the sage of Narendra Modi: Achievements
and challenges. World Focus,

Kapoor, N. (2019, October). ¡: In pursuit of a special strategic partnership (ORF Occasional Paper
No.12).

Karnad, B. (2018). Staggering forward: Narendra Modi and India’s global ambition, Penguin.

Pant, H. V., & Super, J. M. (2015). India‘s ‗Non-Alignment‘ conundrum: A twentieth-century policy
in a changing world. International Affairs

Yadav, D. (2017, November). India Russia-China strategic co-operation: Myth or reality. (World
Focus)

Zakharov, A. (2020, June 26). After Galwan Valley standoff, does the RIC trilateral still matter…
(The Diplomat)

Trenin, D. (2015). India-Russia partnership. In A new era: Indi Russia ties in the 21st century.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

Exim Bank of India. (2019). Potential for enhancing India’s trade with Russia: A brief analysis
(Working Paper No. 42).

India’s Maddening Russia Policy Isn’t as Bad as Washington Thinks-

Foreign Policy magazine article, Derek Grossman .

The shifting balance of power obscures the continuity in India’s global ambitions (The
Economist editorial)

India – Russia relations – Then and Now

By Ambassador Divyabh Manchanda

Arthur Stein, “India and the USSR: The Post-Nehru Period”

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 REFERENCE BOOKS :

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