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ModernAsian Studies22, 4 (1988), pp. 845-865. Printed in Great Britain.
Demographic
Reporting
onAfghanRefugeesin Pakistan
NANCY HATCH DUPREE
Duke University
The author wishes to express her gratitude to the Ford Foundation (Grant no. 835-
oii8), the Universities Field Staff International, and the American Institute of
Pakistan Studies for their support of the project which made this research possible.
845
846 NANCY HATCH DUPREE
Background
Settlement
Patterns.The GOP organization table states that individual
RTVs may not exceed populations of io,ooo, or approximately 1,5oo
E. von Schuh, First Semi Annual ReportCoveringthe Period up to 30th June ig80
(Islamabad: World Food Programme (WFP/FAO) in-house report, 1980), p.2.
2
Officially entitled by the GOP. Many families (an estimated 60%) have construc-
ted mud-brick housing, but the RTV designation emphasizes the assumed temporary
status of the refugees which is politically important.
3
Afghan Refugee Information Network (London: 77 Chelverton Road), ARIN, XXI
(March/April i986), p. i.
t b
/ (.
/' ?./.
iI-
_
'..- r?
(F
DI0
oB ..................
udae^ PUNJAB
/dWa15RzinstanTVs
:V, (10~
(6 j
aBr(/ L -ta\lD.
..
r.tan
. Khnir
/.
r^' -~Zhob \Z j
..(5)
( Pishin /
: Gulstan (14 )
(/ ) Quetta La
Loralai /
(10) (7)
Chga
BALUCHISTAN
I SIN
AL62 RTVss: Karch
r 326
Ch15) I/.Mohmond: knd *
( 15)
families (an average of 6.6 members per family, but families with more
than nine members are recorded). RTVs with populations of 30,000
registered persons do exist, however. In addition, contiguous RTVs,
which began as small separate encampments of kin-related families
have melded to form settlements covering vast areas. Nasirbagh,
outside Peshawar, capital of the NWFP, for instance, covers 32 square
848 NANCY HATCH DUPREE
Age/Sex Distribution. Official GOP statistics from the NWFP report that
45.69% of the population are children under 15; 28.9% adult females
and 25.41% adult males, who are described in GOP reports as being
'mostly old men.' In Baluchistan, 51% are reported to be children
under 15; 26% female adults; 23% male adults.
Population Size. All of the above ratios and percentages have been
gleaned from inadequate data, even though much effort has been
expended on quantitative enumerations and countless reenumerations.
Only general patterns can be discerned from these figures. The count
varies widely-from two to over three million-based on different
objectives pursued by interested parties. In addition to this registered
population there are over I50,000 awaiting registration. An estimated
40% of those who arrived in 985 are unregistered; some still wait after
three years. In addition, an uncounted number (variously estimated
from 130,000 to 200,000) living in cities do not qualify for registration
and are not entitled to rations and other assistance.5
4 Louis
5 N. H. Dupree, Afghanistan(Princeton: Princeton University Press, I980), pp. 55-6.
Dupree, 'The Demography of Afghan Refugees in Pakistan,' in Hafeez Malik
(ed.), Soviet-American
RelationsWithPakistan,IranandAfghanistan(London: Macmillan
Publishing Co., 1986). This chapter contains fuller discussions of the background
DEMOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON AFGHAN REFUGEES 849
Current Assessments
Health
The 1983 FAO Survey. If subject recall surveys have their drawbacks,
those dependent on interviews with officialdom are manifestly mislead-
ing. Even before the results of the UNHCR/NWFP 1983 survey were
submitted, contradictory information was obtained from an FAO (UN
Food and Agriculture Organization)-sponsored survey (October-
November 1983) to identify the nutritional status of the refugee
population (Islamabad: WFP in-house report, I983). This survey was
10 Personal
communication.
854 NANCY HATCH DUPREE
Education
Income-Generation
Exile has forced many Afghan refugees to modify ideals concerning role
and status. Most are from the rural areas. To till the land and be self-
reliant in providing well-being for a family is a matter of pride; a symbol
of identity, self-respect and esteem. The Pushtun, particularly,
generally look on trade and service as less desirable occupations.
And yet, about the only restraint the GOP places on the refugees is to
prohibit them from owning land and farming, except in minor ways on
government lands, or where they are able to make arrangements with
local landowners. Many, but not all, have successfully revised, if but
temporarily, their views on respectable pursuits and have entered
many new fields of occupations.
For those who have not been able to make this transition, idleness
and a sense of loss of purpose combine to create a predisposition toward
dependency which threatens to demoralize a people long lauded for
12
N. H. Dupree, 'Revolutionary Rhetoric and Afghan Women,' in M. Nazif
Shahrani and R. L. Canfield (eds), Revolutions and Rebellions in Afghanistan: Anthropo-
logical Perspectives(Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, University of California,
I984), pp. 306-40.
DEMOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON AFGHAN REFUGEES 857
their self-reliance. Dependency attitudes are insidious, and because
they can so easily become an attitudinal habit, theyjeopardize the very
essence of Afghan culture.
In all fairness, it must be noted that such attitudes are most
noticeable in the 'fashionable' RTVs frequently visited by foreigners
dispensing 'freebees' in the spirit of Lady Bountiful-whether for
political merit, or simply to assuage consciences. Thousands of rupee
notes and other commodities are distributed indiscriminately, and only
fools would fail to take advantage of such handouts and seek more from
the next visitor. Outsiders must, therefore, share in the blame for these
manifestations of dependency.
Several surveys to assess potential income-generation projects have
been fielded. Goals differ, but three main objectives remain constant.
Firstly, to examine the potential. Secondly, to promote skills which,
while generating extra income now, will establish a basis for
Afghanistan's future development. Thirdly, to contribute to the
development of the Pakistani areas in which the refugees reside.
The I982-1986 WorldBank Project. In April I982, the World Bank and
UNHCR formally initiated a 3-year project designed to provide
income-generating activities for Afghan refugees through labour-inten-
sive projects which would also benefit areas adversely affected by the
refugees and their large herds of livestock (an estimated three million
animals). The components targeted reforestation and watershed
management and the rehabilitation and/or upgrading of roads and
irrigation systems. Seventy percent of the labour is supplied by Afghan
refugees, but local Pakistanis also derive benefits from participation in
these schemes. Labour costs total 62% of the estimated US$20 million
to be expended by the project which is financed by donor contributions
and administered by the World Bank.
Consistent with standard World Bank practices, meticulous
feasibility studies were taken in cooperation with the provincial line
departments which are responsible for implementation. Beyond
ascertaining the availability of Afghan labour, however, few data
regarding the refugees were sought. The UNHCR conducts periodic
surveys to assess the extent of Afghan employment and average wage
earnings. The Bank also undertakes regular reviews of technical and
financial aspects. Because of the careful monitoring this project has
won international acclaim as a model for other nations seeking to
integrate refugee aid with host-nation development. Although this
858 NANCY HATCH DUPREE
training. For instance, since the refugees are presently prohibited from
substantive private farming because this would compromise their
temporary status as refugees, how will the children learn how to survive
should they return?
To assess the feasibility of these larger projects, UNHCR has
engaged NESPAK (National Engineering Services/Pakistan), a
Karachi-based private firm with over I,ooo professionals, to evaluate
the impact of projects on both the refugees and Afghan-Pakistan
relations.
In sum, many data are being accumulated, but coordinated and
systematic recording is still lacking.
14 Hafeez Malik, 'The Afghan Crisis and its Impact on Pakistan,'Jour. of SouthAsian
and Middle Eastern Studies, V, no. 3 (Spring 1982), pp. 40-52.
15
Akbar S. Ahmed, 'Afghan Refugees: An Assessment,' mss. (Islamabad, 1984),
p. i.
864 NANCY HATCH DUPREE
16
'Bomb blast,' The Muslim
(Islamabad: 23June i986), p. 8.
17 I.
'J. Jamaat-e-Islami] accuses NDP [National Democratic Party] and PNP
[Pakistan National Party] of bomb blasts,' and, 'NDP leader hits back atJamaat,' The
Muslim (21 June 1986), p. i.
18'Bid to blow upJandola bridge,' TheMuslim(9gJune I986), p. 8.
19For an
example of the rhetoric, see 'Frontier Pashtoons, Baluchis hail High
Jirgah,' Kabul New Times (Kabul: 24 October I985), p. i.
0 'Bomb blast
injures 21 in Peshawar,' The Muslim (23 June 1986), p. I.
DEMOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON AFGHAN REFUGEES 865
Conclusions21