Why China, Philippines Keep Clashing at Sea and What Comes Next

 Marcos discarded Duterte’s non-confrontation maritime strategy

 Rhetoric from both sides suggest neither wants to go to war
Dangerous sea maneuvers. Water cannons and laser light. Swarming and collisions.
These are just some of the flash points that are inflaming tensions between China and
the Philippines in the South China Sea.
Several Asian countries have overlapping claims on the maritime territories but it’s the
increasingly intense competition between Beijing and Manila that’s been drawing global
attention of late. The prospect of an encounter in the waters that could drag the US into
direct conflict with China is making the South China Sea at times more dangerous than
the Taiwan Strait, observers say.
Why are tensions rising now?
The Philippines’ maritime strategy has seen a dramatic shift under President Ferdinand
Marcos Jr. who took office in June 2022. Marcos discarded his predecessor’s non-
confrontational approach in the South China Sea and instead became more assertive,
backed by its longtime ally, the US.
Filipino authorities have increased military missions, including resupplying its lone
outpost in disputed waters. They have also ramped up efforts to call out China’s “gray
zone tactics” in contested waters, including dangerous sea maneuvers that have led to a
few instances of collisions.
Ties between Beijing and Manila that warmed during the time of former President
Rodrigo Duterte became more strained after Marcos granted the US military access to
more Philippines bases, including those facing the South China Sea and Taiwan in early
2023.
His administration also launched negotiations on reciprocal military visits with Japan —
an endeavor it also aims to forge with France. The Philippines has also held joint patrols
with US and Australia in the South China Sea, and is considering holding similar exercises
with other countries.
What has China said?
China, which claims almost the entirety of the sea where it has built artificial islands, has
responded by blocking access to the rocks, reefs and islands therein while maintaining
that its actions are lawful and within its rights.
Beijing claims areas that the Philippines says are part of its 200-nautical-mile exclusive
economic zone, which Manila calls the West Philippine Sea. Brunei, Malaysia and
Vietnam also lay claims over the waterway.
China has repeatedly blamed the Philippines for igniting maritime encounters and has
accused Manila of ignoring its warnings. A particular point of contention was the regular
Philippine convoys to provide food and medical supplies to a small contingent of
marines stationed in the grounded World War II-era ship as well as equipment and
materials to shore up the crumbling vessel.
The Philippines is being emboldened by “external forces,” according to Beijing, in an
apparent swipe at the US. The Philippines had branded China’s remarks
as disinformation.
How did the US react?
The US has criticized Beijing several times for its South China Sea actions, most recently
slamming its “reckless disregard” for international law.
At the same time, Washington has repeatedly assured the Philippines that it will come
to its defense in case of an armed attack, as stipulated in the nations’ decades-old
treaty. US President Joe Biden described this commitment as “ironclad,” as his
government seeks to counter China in the region.
Nations like Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Canada have also backed the Philippines
while also airing concerns over China’s conduct.
Could this lead to war?
While tensions intensify as instances of sea collisions are becoming more frequent, the
rhetoric from both sides suggest that neither is prepared to bring the discord to more
dangerous levels.
After meeting with President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation Summit in November, Marcos said: “I do not think anybody wants to go to
war.”
The Philippines said Chinese ships blasted water cannon and rammed Filipino boats
again on separate occasions on Dec. 9 and 10, but moves by Manila’s top trading
partner are not yet considered an “act of war,” National Security Council Assistant
Director-General Jonathan Malaya said.
“This is just part of the cat and mouse game that China seems to be utilizing to further
its own interests,” Malaya said.
What’s next?
The Philippines plans to continue its supply missions in the disputed waters, with
Marcos saying the latest incidents have steeled his nation’s determination to defend its
sovereignty. The nation is also exploring diplomatic and legal steps to respond to China’s
actions, including protests and another potential arbitration case.
China also said that it will continue asserting its maritime claims, opening the possibility
for more maritime encounters.
“China is turning up the dial, hoping the Philippines will lose its nerve and come back to
the negotiating table,” said Ray Powell, director of a Stanford University project tracking
Beijing’s activities in the South China Sea.

Rising Philippines-China tensions in South China

Sea: 5 moments from 2023
From flashing lasers to collisions and water cannons, it has been an increasingly
incident-filled year in the brewing conflict between China and the Philippines in the
South China Sea, one of the most vital trade routes in the world and a potential global
tinderbox.
After a collision over the weekend between Chinese and Philippine vessels, and the use
of water cannons a dozen times, the Philippines on Monday condemned what it called a
“serious escalation” of Chinese aggression. The Philippines has a mutual defense treaty
with the United States.
China’s actions “really show a desire on their part to escalate the situation,” said
Jonathan Malaya, spokesman for the Philippines’ national task force on the West
Philippine Sea, the name for the region of the South China Sea under Philippine
jurisdiction.
China’s coast guard spokesman, Gan Yu, said Sunday that its operations were
“professional, standardized, legitimate and legal,” and that the collision that day was
deliberately caused by the Philippines.
The conflict is part of overlapping territorial disputes China has with other countries
around the South China Sea, including Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. China has been
militarizing the islands in the area to support its claims. In 2016, an international
arbitration tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines — a ruling that China has ignored.
Here are five incidents this year that capture the steadily escalating tension in the West
Philippine Sea.
February: China flashes laser
In February, China flashed a military-grade laser at a Philippine coast guard vessel
approaching the Second Thomas Shoal, temporarily blinding its crew, according to the
Philippines’ account. A laser attack is typically seen as hostile because as it can
also precede firing on a target.
The incident took place about a month after what was initially seen to be as a fruitful
visit by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to Beijing. Analysts cite the moment as a turning
point for Philippines’ policy after years of a more muted approach. The president
summoned the Chinese ambassador himself — an unusual move, as the Foreign
Ministry typically oversees such summons.
“This is where the Philippines made its choice,” said Ray Powell, SeaLight director at the
Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford University. Its decision
to release visuals of the event kick-started what Powell calls its “assertive transparency”
campaign. After February, the Philippines would actively document and publicize China’s
actions, shoring up support from other countries.
March, December: China swarms

Swarming, or the deployment of a flotilla of vessels to intimidate or overwhelm a target,

has been a signature move used by China to assert its presence. China sends a combination
of coast guard, navy and militia vessels to surround a site or block and cut off target
ships. Its maritime militia is a force of fishing vessels that works with the state.
One of the first swarms recorded this year was in March, when over 40 Chinese vessels
gathered around Thitu Island, known to Filipinos as Pag-asa, which is home to a civilian
settlement. On Dec. 3, the Philippine coast guard released video of 135 Chinese vessels
swarming Whitsun Reef, known locally as Julian Felipe.

Swarming is “at the core of [China’s] aggressive, coercive behavior,” said Victor Andres
Manhit, president of the Manila-based think tank Stratbase Albert del Rosario Institute.
All other actions are enabled by its capacity to swarm and bully its target, he added.
August: China deploys water cannon
The first recorded Chinese use of a water cannon against a Philippine ship this year
came in August. The ship was resupplying Philippine marines onto the Sierra Madre, an
outpost on a rusting ship that was run aground on the Second Thomas Shoal to support
the Philippine claim. The Philippine Foreign Affairs Department called an emergency
hotline — established during Marcos’s Beijing trip — after the incident but China did not
answer for six hours.
It was only the second known use of a water cannon in the West Philippine Sea and
important because it was caught “in broad daylight [with] multiple views,” maritime
expert Jay Batongbacal said in August. At the time, pro-China commentators were quick
to emphasize that the event was nonlethal.
“The truth is … the high pressure actually can potentially sink that wooden vessel,”
Batongbacal said. “It definitely can injure persons, perhaps seriously and even fatally
under the right conditions.”
September: Philippines cuts floating barrier
In two back-to-back incidents in September, the Philippines released footage of
extensive damage in Iroquois Reef, locally known as Rozul. It alleged the damage was
caused by the earlier swarming of Chinese militia ships in the area. Justice Secretary
Jesus Crispin Remulla called for environmental charges against China at the arbitration
court, a proposal that is under government review.
The next week, it cut a floating barrier that it said China planted in Scarborough Shoal,
another disputed site in the West Philippine Sea and a traditional fishing ground to
which China has been blocking access.
December: China uses water cannons again
In the past week, the Philippines sent two missions into the disputed area: a
humanitarian mission to distribute goods to fishermen near Scarborough Shoal, and a
resupply mission to the outpost on Second Thomas Shoal. China used a water cannon
eight times on the fishing vessels in the first mission, and then four times on the
resupply mission.
One vessel had to be towed back after water cannon damage disabled its engine,
“seriously endangering the lives of its crew,” the Philippine coast guard said. Another
sustained damage to its mast, and another was rammed.
The Philippine coast guard said it was harassed by a total of 13 Chinese coast guard and
militia ships. It also detected over 48 Chinese vessels in the area, the “largest number of
maritime forces we have documented” in recent resupply missions, spokesman Jay
Tarriela said Monday.
Following the uptick in harassment, Philippine officials said they were looking at
adjusting the nation’s strategy but declined to provide details.
A 30-vessel civilian convoy over the weekend was also interrupted after being harassed
by China, its organizers said. Donations meant for soldiers have been turned over to
authorities, and the volunteer ship returned to base for security reasons. But the
caravan was the first of “many more to come,” said Rafaela David, organizer of the “Atin
Ito” or “It’s Ours” coalition.
“Our goal is to regularize and normalize the travel and movement of the Filipino people
in this region,” she said. “After all, it is ours.”

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