Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Manila’s New Assertiveness in
the West Philippine Sea
November 9, 2023

We are writing a report about the Philippines’ well publicized missions in the South
China Sea, especially those aimed at resupplying troops on the BRP Sierra Madre,
Manila’s military outpost on Second Thomas Shoal.
The publicized resupply missions that show Philippine ships defying moves by Chinese
vessels have become a key part of President Marcos’s South China Sea strategy and
Manila’s push to assert its maritime claims.
Q1. How do you assess the effectiveness of this campaign by Manila?
ANSWER: President Marcos Jr’s new assertiveness of Philippine sovereignty in the
West Philippine Sea has been enormously successful in generating publicity and
exposing China’s intimidation against Philippine vessels. China is definitely incurring
some damage to its reputation, particularly when the Philippines succeeds in
resupplying its troops on Second Thomas Shoal.
The Philippines’ new assertiveness has resulted in a reaffirmation of United States
commitment to their 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). In addition, the Philippines
has received diplomatic support from Japan and Australia.
Q2. If there’s any, what has been the impact of this campaign on China?
ANSWER: There have been no signs that China will respond with self-restraint. To the
contrary, Admiral Samuel Paparo Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, recently told
journalists on the sidelines of the Indo-Pacific Maritime Expo in Sydney, that Chinese
naval officers have been ordered to be more “aggressive” in their encounters with
Western militaries.
Q3. Following the collision between Philippines and Chinese vessels last month, how
risky do you think these missions have become? What are the chances of
miscalculations that may lead to actual, armed conflict?
ANSWER: The U.S .Defense Department issued a report in October that documented
one hundred cases of Chinese challenges to U.S., allied and partner ships and aircraft
in the South China Sea since mid-2021, that is, before Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was
elected president of the Philippines. In addition, over the same period, China
separately intercepted 180 U.S. military aircraft. The frequency and intensity of
Chinese challenges to the Philippines since June 2022, fits this larger pattern.
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In sum, China is likely to step up the pressure against the Philippines by deploying even
more Coast Guard ships and maritime militia vessels and acting aggressively against
Philippine resupply vessels. The scene is being set for a serious test of wills and an
incident leading to physical damage and injury and possibly loss of life.
Other forms of Chinese sanctions – political and economic – could be in train.
Q4. How will trilateral cooperation among Philippines, U.S. and Japan change the
dynamics in the South China Sea?
ANSWER: The key to changing present dynamics in the West Philippines Sea rests
mainly with the Philippines and the United States as treaty allies. Chinese behaviour
will bring forward a “make or break” moment when one side either stands down or
escalates. Will the U.S. conduct combined patrols with the Philippines? Will U.S. ships
intervene tactically to deter China from physical intimidation?
It should be noted that the US is only obliged to act under the MDT if China uses armed
force.
Trilateral patrols involving the U.S., Japan and the Philippines will be largely ineffectual
in preventing clashes between China Coast Guard and Maritime Militia vessels and
Philippine resupply vessels because they involve naval warships that are unlikely to be
deployed tactically to physically confront Chinese civilian vessels.
Trilateral naval patrols by the U.S., Japan and the Philippines (and possibly Australia)
primarily serve a deterrence function against the People’s Liberation Army Navy.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Manila’s New Assertiveness in the West

Philippine Sea,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 9, 2023. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer.. To remove yourself
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.