How Should ASEAN Respond to China’s

‘Grey Zone’ Tactics in the South China Sea?

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to
3rd Virtual International Conference
on the South China [West Philippine] Sea
hosted by the National Youth Movement West Philippine Sea
Manila, The Philippines,
May 22-23, 2021
 Outline

1. China’s Three Warfares and Grey Zone tactics

2. Factors Shaping World and Regional Order
3. How Should ASEAN Respond?
4. How Should ASEAN Littoral States Respond?
5. Concluding Remarks
 1. China’s Three Warfares*
• Psychological Warfare
• Disrupt opponent’s decision-making capacity
• Legal Warfare (lawfare)
• Enact domestic law to make claims in international law
• Public Opinion Warfare
• Use of media to advance the other two warfares
*Political Work Guidelines of the People’s Liberation Army (revised
2003)
 Grey Zone Operations and Tactics

• The space below the threshold of major war

• Operational zone between peace and war
• Hybrid warfare
• Use of ostensibly ‘non-official’ units and forces
• China Coast Guard
• China Maritime Militia
• Chinese fishing fleets
 CCG Vessels by
Weight (tons)

9 at 2,700 tons +
1 at 3,000 tons +
20 at 4,000 tons +
5 at 5,000 tons +
2 at 10,000 tons +
2. Factors Shaping World and Regional Order
Balance of
Power

Great International
Powers Law

War Diplomacy
 International Law and a Rules-Based Order
China-U.S. Contestation
China
• International system with China at the centre, concentric sets of
interests, China to shape rules based order
• International expert on China, under Chatham House Rules
United States
• restore U.S. credibility and global leadership to ensure that “America,
not China, sets the international agenda” working with allies and
partners
• Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (2021)
 UN Charter Recognizes
the Role of Regional Agencies
Chapter VIII, Article 52 - Regional Arrangements
• Nothing in the present Charter precludes the existence of
regional arrangements or agencies for dealing with such
matters relating to the maintenance of international peace
and security as are appropriate for regional action provided
that such arrangements or agencies and their activities are
consistent with the Purposes and Principles of the United
Nations.
 3. How Should ASEAN Respond?
• In response to Myanmar Crisis ASEAN Leaders’ stated:
• “we reiterated that the political stability in ASEAN Member States is
essential to achieving a peaceful, stable and prosperous ASEAN
Community. We underscored the need to maintain our unity,
Centrality, and relevance in the region and to collectively address
common challenges.”
• ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting Statement, April 24, 2021
• Why not declare that China’s grey zone tactics against the Philippines,
Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia threaten a peaceful, stable and
prosperous ASEAN Community that ASEAN must address?
 ASEAN Should Invoke the Treaty of Amity and
Cooperation in Southeast Asia (1976)
• Article 10
• Each High Contracting Party shall not in any manner or form
participate in any activity which shall constitute a threat to
the political and economic stability, sovereignty, or territorial
integrity of another High Contracting Party.

• The People’s Republic of China acceded to the TAC on

October 8, 2003
 ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation
in Southeast Asia 1976
• Article. 15
• In the event no solution is reached through direct negotiations, the
High Council shall take cognizance of the dispute or the situation and
shall recommend to the parties in dispute appropriate means of
settlement such as good offices, mediation, inquiry or conciliation.
The High Council may however offer its good offices, or upon
agreement of the parties in dispute, constitute itself into a committee
of mediation, inquiry or conciliation. When deemed necessary, the
High Council shall recommend appropriate measures for the
prevention of a deterioration of the dispute or the situation.
 ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation
in Southeast Asia 1976
• Article 16
• The foregoing provisions for this Chapter shall not apply, to
dispute unless all the parties to the dispute agree to their
application to that dispute. However, this shall not preclude
the other High Contracting Parties not party to the dispute
from offering all possible assistance to settle the said
dispute. Parties to the dispute should be well disposed
towards such offers of assistance.
 ASEAN Should Condemn China’s
Grey Zone Tactics
• ASEAN Foreign Ministers/ASEAN Summit should issue a Joint
Statement
• Grey Zone tactics threaten sovereignty, sovereign jurisdiction of member
states and affect ASEAN peace and security
• Demand China clarify its Law on Coast Guard - ”waters under China’s
jurisdiction”
• Declare any action taken under the Coast Guard Law would be a violation of
international law if carried out in maritime zones of the Philippines, Vietnam,
Malaysia or Indonesia
• ASEAN should raise this issue with China and other Dialogue Partners
• ASEAN Chair, ASEAN Secretary General, ASEAN Country Co-ordinator
4. How Should ASEAN Littoral States Respond?
• Conduct bilateral discussions with China
• Form an informal caucus inside ASEAN
• Lobby for ASEAN Plus 4 (Quad) Dialogue (parallel to ASEAN Plus 3)
• Raise China’s grey zone tactics at international fora
• Keep on, keeping on… assert sovereignty on daily basis
• Constant diplomatic protests
• Publicity – ‘naming and shaming’ after incidents
• Counter China’s lawfare – national legislation
• Operationalize ASEAN Coast Guard Forum
 5. Concluding Remarks
• ASEAN Littoral States should resolve their maritime disputes and
address IUUF (Illegal, Unreported, Unregulated Fishing)
• Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia
Constraints
• ASEAN Chairs Brunei (2021) and Cambodia (2022) are reactive, not
proactive
• Myanmar will replace the Philippines as ASEAN Country Coordinator
for China (2021-24)
• Myanmar Crisis will distract and divide ASEAN
• COVID-19 will remain a long-term factor
 How Should ASEAN Respond to China’s
‘Grey Zone’ Tactics in the South China Sea?

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to
3rd Virtual International Conference
on the South China [West Philippine] Sea
hosted by the National Youth Movement West Philippine Sea
Manila, The Philippines,
May 22-23, 2021