Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

President Biden to Visit
Vietnam: Scene Setter – 4
September 5, 2023

We are preparing a report related to US President Joe Biden’s visit to Vietnam, and
possibly announcing the upgrade of bilateral relations to the highest level.
Q1. What are the reasons and benefits for Vietnam to strengthen its ties with the
United States? Also, why this timing? Are there other reasons rather than the 10th
anniversary of the comprehensive partnership?
ANSWER: Vietnam has decided to upgrade its relations with the United States because
of changes in the global strategic environment. The international system is becoming
more polarised and fragmented. Russia has been weakened, isolated and more
dependent on China. Russia and China have formed a “partnership without limits” to
counter act the NATO coalition led by the United States. China has resumed pressure
on Vietnam in the South China.
Global economic growth has slowed due to the war in Ukraine and China’s domestic
economic difficulties. China-U.S. rivalry has intensified.
New coalitions have emerged. China is pushing for the expansion of BRICS to counter
the Group of 20. India has joined the Quad. AUKUS groups Australia, the United
Kingdom, and the United States. A trilateral partnership has been formed between the
U.S., Japan and South Korea. These trends are long-term.
Vietnam has set its sights on becoming a modern industrial country with a high income
by 2045. In the present strategic environment Vietnam’s ability to leverage off
differences among the major powers is narrowing. The slowdown of the global
economy and China’s economic difficulties reduce the resources Vietnam has
available to develop.
Vietnam has decided to reshape its external relations to maximize its leverage where
it matters most by developing new partnerships to take advantage of emerging
technologies. Vietnam has given priority to the United States because the U.S. is not
part of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Reginal
Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Vietnam is a party to the Biden
Administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework but progress is slow. Vietnam
needs to urgently upgrade its bilateral economic relations with the U.S. to lift its
economic growth.
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Q2. Is there any change in Vietnam's diplomacy in strengthening relations with the
United States? Or is this an extension of Vietnam's previous diplomacy?
ANSWER: Vietnam’s decision to upgrade relations with the United States marks a
major shift in its diplomatic strategy. In 2003, Vietnam adopted a strategy of
“cooperation and struggle” to manage its relations with the major powers, China and
the United States in particular. This conceptual framework was reaffirmed in 2013.
Subsequently Vietnamese officials and strategists have had a hard look at what they
call “partners of cooperation” and “objects of struggle.” The result has been a shift to
more practical diplomacy.
Since 2001, Vietnam has structured its external relations in three tiers: thirteen
comprehensive partnerships, thirteen strategic partnerships and four comprehensive
strategic partnerships for a total of thirty. Now Vietnam is breaking down artificial
barriers that impeded bilateral relations in order to form new more workable
relationships. In 2022 it raised relations with South Korea to a comprehensive strategic
partnership. This year Vietnam will elevate relations with the United States and
Australia to the same level. Next year it is likely Japan will follow.
These new partnerships will provide the framework for Vietnam to enhance economic
relations with major economic powers and access new technologies. Vietnam will be
able to leverage relations with U.S. allies South Korea and Australia in its dealings with
the United States.
Q3. What would be the implications for Indo-Pacific security if diplomatic relations
between the US and Vietnam were upgraded to “a comprehensive strategic
partnership”, alongside China and Russia?
ANSWER: An upgrade in U.S.-Vietnam relations to a comprehensive strategic
partnership will enhance Vietnam’s prestige and capacity to play a stronger role in
ASEAN and other multilateral fora.
The new relationship will not alter Vietnam’s long-standing policy of four no’s – no
foreign military bases, no alliances, no joining one country to oppose another country,
and no use of force in international relations.
The new relationship, however, will enhance Vietnam’s capabilities to defend itself
through defence industry ties with American defence contractors.
Q 4. How would China react if diplomatic relations between the US and Vietnam were
upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership, alongside China and Russia?
ANSWER: As long as Vietnam adheres to its policy of four no’s China is unlikely to take
any punitive action against Vietnam.
China and Vietnam are pursuing parallel paths in their efforts to engage with South
Korea, Australia, and the Philippines. China and Vietnam both seek stable economic
relations with the United States.
In sum, China will redouble its diplomatic efforts to influence Vietnam by stressing
their commonalities as socialist countries. China is likely to respond to Vietnam’s
requests to remove restrictions on cross border trade and to invest more in Vietnam’s
hi-tech industries.
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Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “President Biden to Visit Vietnam: Scene Setter
– 4,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 5, 2023. All background briefs
are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer.. To remove yourself from the mailing list
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.