Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

President Biden to Visit
Vietnam: Scene Setter – 7
September 8, 2023

We are preparing a study exploring how Vietnam approaches its relations with the
United States.:
Q1. What does it mean to Vietnam to put Washington on the same par with Beijing
and Moscow on Hanoi's hierarchy of diplomatic ties? If the upgrade falls short of
comprehensive strategic partnership, what messages does this convey?
ANSWER: Vietnam is responding to increasing polarization and fragmentation of the
international system, slowing of global growth, a weakened and isolated Russia, and
China’s domestic difficulties. All of these changes put Vietnam’s plans to become a
modern industrial country with a high income by 2045 into jeopardy.
Vietnam needs access to emerging technologies and investment from advanced
economies. Special attention must be given to the United States because it is
Vietnam’s largest export market and also because the U.S. is not party to any of the
free trade agreements Vietnam has joined including the Comprehensive and
Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership and Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership.
The elevation of the United States on a par with Russia and China is a necessary and
practical step to secure Vietnam’s national interests by accessing investment and
emerging technologies to enable Vietnam to meet its long term socio-economic
development goals.
It was the Biden Administration that pushed for an elevation of ties to a strategic
partnership. It was Vietnam that promoted raising relations to a comprehensive
strategic partnership. President Biden and Secretary Trong are likely to issue a short
joint statement on the new relationship. It will be left to high-level officials to work
out the details in a multiyear Plan of Action that will be monitored annually to see that
goals are met. In sum, it is these practical arrangements that are more important than
the description of bilateral relations.
Q2. Biden's visit comes at the invitation of party chief Nguyen Phu Trong, rather than
Biden’s counterpart Prewsident6 Vo Van Thuong. Does tbhis indicate that the Vietnam
Communist Party has moved past the ideological divide in its ties with the US?
ANSWER: Over the past two years Vietnamese officials have been reviewing and
revising Vietnam’s 2003 policy of “cooperation and struggle” (vừa hợp tác, vừa đấu
 2

tranh). In particular, Vietnam has refined the distinction between “partners of

cooperation” (đối tác) and “object of struggle” (đối tượng).
It is in this context that Vietnam’s party leader Secretary General Trong has given his
approval to raising bilateral relations with the United States to a comprehensive
strategic partnership along with South Korea (in 2022), Australia (later this year) and
Japan (next year).
Q3. With the US and China both as its comprehensive strategic partners, how will
Vietnam navigate in friction between the two superpowers? Is it more or less
difficult for Hanoi to strike a balance?
ANSWER: Raising the U.S. to a comprehensive strategic partner on a par with China
will not alter the reality of their strategic rivalry. Vietnam will manage the new
relations by not aligning with either China or the United States. For example, Vietnam
will continue to pursue its four no’s defence policy.
Vietnam will gain greater leverage with both major powers when relations with the
U.S. are raised. Vietnam will join with Singapore and other countries in urging China
and the United States to solve their own problems so the rest of the world doesn’t
suffer.
China will have to compete even harder to match economic cooperation between
Vietnam and the U.S. At the same time, China will seek greater economic access to the
United States and Australia as well despite the formation of AUKUS.
Q4. How is the level of trust between Hanoi and Washington vis-a-vis that between
Hanoi and Beijing now that both are poised to become Hanoi's highest-ranking
partners?
ANSWER: The level of trust is quite high because the United States has tacitly and by
action recognised the paramount role of the Vietnam Communist Party and its leader
in Vietnam’s political system. The Biden Administration’s reaffirmation of its respect
for Vietnam’s sovereignty and political system have put paid to idea that the United
States is seeking political evolution or a change in Vietnam socialist system.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “President Biden to Visit Vietnam: Scene Setter
– 7,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 8, 2023. All background briefs
are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer.. To remove yourself from the mailing list
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.