Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123 Background Brief:

President Biden’s Visit to Vietnam Scene
Setter
August 30, 2023

We are writing a report on President Biden’s trip to Vietnam next month and the
significance for regional politics. We request your assessment of the following issues:
Q1. How does President Biden’s trip compare to President Obama's, which took place
amid a seemingly marked shift in the relationship between the U.S. and Vietnam
decades after war?
ANSWER: The trips by Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden are a study in contrast.
President Obama laid the foundations for bilateral relations in July 2013 when he
hosted Vietnam’s President Truong Tan Sang at The White House. The two presidents
agreed to elevate bilateral relations to a comprehensive partnership.
This agreement enumerated nine areas of cooperation: political and diplomatic
relations, trade and economic ties, science and technology, education and training,
environment and health, war legacy issues, defense and security, protection and
promotion of human rights, and culture, sports, and tourism.
President Obama’s visited Vietnam in May 2016 during the last year of his presidency.
His visit was notable for the lifting of the ban on the sale of lethal weapons to Vietnam
and thus removed the last obstacle to fully normalized relations. Obama, however,
failed to deliver on one of the partnership’s major objectives “a comprehensive, high-
standard Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement...” Obama’s successor,
President Donald Trump, withdrew the United States from the TPP soon after he
took office in 2017.
President Biden will visit Vietnam on 10 September before his first term in office
ends. The Biden Administration aims to build on the foundations of the decade-long
comprehensive partnership. Vice President Kamala Harris and Defense Secretary
Lloyd Austin made official visits to Vietnam to initiate discussions on raising bilateral
relations to a strategic partnership.
President Biden and Communist Party of Vietnam General Secretary Nguyen Phu
Trong spoke by telephone and agreed to expand bilateral relations. Since that phone
call three Cabinet members travelled to Vietnam to negotiate the details – Secretary
of State Anthony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and U.S. Trade
Representative Katherine Tai.
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The visits by President Obama and Biden illustrate one enduring continuity in U.S
policy, that is, to assist Vietnam undertake the necessary economic and regulatory
reforms to so it can further integrate into the global economy.
Q2. What's the significance of the expected upgrade in ties? Will this change anything
in practice, and how will China view this?
ANSWER: Vietnam maintains a hierarchy of three tiers in its external relations:
thirteen comprehensive partnerships, thirteen strategic partnerships and four
comprehensive strategic partnerships (Russia, China, India and South Korea). The
differences appear marginal when the text of agreements for the three tiers are
compared. What sets these tiers apart is the seniority of members on the bilateral
coordinating mechanisms and the frequency of meetings. Generally, high-level
officials from strategic partners gain access to Vietnam’s “four pillars” of leadership:
party General Secretary, prime minister, state president and Chairman of the National
Assembly.
An upgrade in bilateral relations will lead to a revision and expansion of agreed areas
of cooperation and a multi-year Plan of Action that is regularly monitored.
China will be restrained and practical in its response as long as its interests are not
adversely affected. China too seeks dialogue with U.S. officials to discuss climate
change mitigation and trade differences. Vietnam will be at pains to mollify China that
it is not joining an anti-China coalition.
Q3. Has anything much changed in Vietnam's diplomatic/strategic thinking in regards
to China and the United States over the past few years (say, since Obama visited)? Are
there still parts of the Vietnam Communist Party more inclined towards getting closer
to the U.S., and more inclined towards China, or is there a consensus of sorts?
ANSWER: In 2003, Vietnam adopted a construct known as “cooperation and struggle”
(vừa hợp tác, vừa đấu tranh) as a framework for its relations with the major powers
regardless of their ideological orientation. The focus was on what areas of cooperation
were possible, and on what areas were Vietnam’s national interests harmed.
This “cooperation and struggle” construct was reviewed and refined ten years later.
In recent years the “cooperation and struggle” has been the subject of much internal
debate. Specifically, Vietnamese officials want to better define the “partner of
cooperation” (đối tác) and the “object of struggle” (đối tượng) so as to create a better
policy response.
There is consensus in Vietnam on its long-standing policy of “diversification and
multilateralization” of external relations. Vietnam seeks a dynamic equilibrium in its
relations with the major powers so it can leverage off differences among them.
Vietnam’s internal debates mainly focus on how to retain Vietnam’s freedom of action
in its relations with China and the United States through tactical adjustments in policy
rather than alignment with one against the other.
What is changing about Vietnam’s strategic thinking is how to adjust its foreign policy
strategy to the increasing polarization of the international system and a slowing of
global economic growth. Russia is now weakened, isolated and dependent on China.
Japan is more closely aligned with the United States. India too has shifted to greater
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defence engagement with the U.S. South Korea has joined Japan and the United States
in a trilateral partnership. Australia is the center-piece of AUKUS along with the United
Kingdom and the United States.
The U.S. and Europe have come closer together to oppose Russian aggression in
Ukraine. China is being singled out as the major challenge if not threat to the U.S.-led
western coalition.
The slowing of global economic growth plus China’s economic difficulties add pressure
on Vietnam to upgrade its relations with the United States and Australia in order to
take advantage of new technologies and new supply chains.
There are recurrent rumours in Hanoi that agreement has been reached by Vietnam
and the United States to leapfrog from a comprehensive partnership to a
comprehensive strategic partnership during President Biden’s visit. Vietnam and
Australia have already agreed to raise their relations to a comprehensive strategic
partnership with Singapore to follow.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “President Biden’s Visit to Vietnam Scene

Setter,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 30, 2023. All background briefs
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.