Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam and the U.S.-China-
Russia Triangle
September 10, 2023

The President of the United States plans to visit Hanoi with the intent of strengthening
ties between the two countries. We request your assessment of the following:
Q1. Why do you think Vietnam became such a significant point for the U.S. foreign
policy? What can President Biden bring to the table when he visits Hanoi?
ANSWER: Vietnam became a focal point for U.S. diplomacy when Vietnam became the
sixth member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in July 1995, the
same month Vietnam and the United States normalised relations.
In 2003, Vietnam adopted a policy of “cooperation and struggle” in its relations with
the major powers. Vietnam was responding to friction with socialist China in the South
China Sea, and growing cooperation with the United States, a former enemy.
Vietnam’s Defence Minister made his first visit to the United States in 2003 and thus
initiated a reciprocal exchange of defence ministers every other year.
Vietnam gradually emerged as a potential U.S. security partner as it became a member
of the World Trade Organisation in 2007, a non-permanent member of the UN Security
Council for the first time in 2008-2009 (and again in 2020-21), and inaugural host of
the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus in 2010.
A major turning point occurred during President Barack Obama’s term in office when
Vietnam and the U.S. agreed in 2013 to raise bilateral relations to a comprehensive
partnership covering nine major areas of cooperation. Since that time Vietnam has
been identified as an important security partner in all U.S. national security strategies,
particularly because of Chinese assertiveness and intimidation in the South China Sea.
Also, the U.S. has sought to counter the appeal of China’s Belt and Road Initiative
launched in 2013.
Since President Biden assumed office, the U.S. has lobbied Vietnam to upgrade
bilateral relations to a strategic partnership to end the situation where the U.S. was
listed at the bottom of Vietnam’s three-tiered hierarchy of partnerships –
comprehensive, strategic and comprehensive strategic.
Q2. What economic goals does the US hope to achieve by strengthening the relations
with Vietnam?
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ANSWER: It is notable that the United States is not a party to the two most important
multilateral regional free trade agreements, the Comprehensive and Progressive
Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP), to which Vietnam is a member.
Biden is motivated mainly by economic issues such de-risking economic dependence
on China by securing a reliable supply chain for Vietnamese semiconductors and a
more favourable environment for American investment, including American
businesses relocating from China. Biden hopes Vietnam will be a founding member of
his Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity.
A longer term goal for President Biden is to support Vietnam transition to a hi-tech
economy through technology transfer (ecommerce and a digital economy), green
energy transition to meet emission reduction targets to mitigate climate change.
Q3. Addressing local media in Hanoi during a recent visit, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet
Yellen hailed Vietnam as "a key partner" in the effort to reduce dependence on China
by expanding manufacturing in the U.S. and with trusted partners. Do you think that
Vietnam has any interest in becoming part of the US-led global coalition against China?
ANSWER: There are two aspects to your question. First, Vietnam will not abandon its
four no’s defence policy (no alliances, nor foreign military bases, no joining one
country to oppose another, and no use of force in international relations). Vietnam
will not join any U.S.-led anti-China coalition.
The second aspect is Vietnam’s goal of becoming an industrial country with a high
income by 2045, as adopted by the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of
Vietnam in 2021. The U.S. is Vietnam’s largest export market. Because the U.S. is not
a member of the CPTPP and RCEP, Vietnam needs to update and modernise its
bilateral trade agreement with the United States. This is an even more pressing issue
because of the slowdown of global economic growth and China’s domestic economic
difficulties.
In sum, the economic interests of Vietnam and the U.S. are complimentary .
Q4. Vietnam has comprehensive strategic partnerships with only four countries,
China, Russia, India and South Korea. How do you assess the significance of China and
Russia for Vietnam?
ANSWER: Relations with Russia are built on the legacy of the former Soviet Union.
The Russian Federation was Vietnam’s first strategic partner. The centre piece of this
relationship has been the sale of arms and military technology to Vietnam so it can
defend itself. There are also economic ties of importance, such as VietSovPetro, a joint
venture for oil and gas exploration and production, and education and training for
Vietnamese students. Some estimates put the total number at over 50,000 since the
Soviet Union recognized Vietnam in 1950.
Vietnam and China are bound by geography. China was the first country to recognize
the Democratic Republic of Vietnam in 1950. It also provided support for Vietnam’s
resistance against France and the United States.
China and Vietnam fought a border war in 1979 and only normalized relations in late
1991. Since then China has emerged as Vietnam biggest trade partner.
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Vietnam’s economy was affected when China abruptly closed its borders and locked
down during the COVID pandemic. Vietnam’s exports to China fell.
Both China and Vietnam are one-party states that share a common socialist ideology.
After the collapse of socialism in Eastern Europe through colour revolutions, Vietnam
and China shared a common interest in opposing the West’s strategy of peaceful
evolution.
However, maritime and territorial disputes in the South China Sea have proved to be
a continuing irritant in bilateral relations since 1992. China’s current economic
difficulties have affected Vietnam’s growth prospect and made it imperative for Hanoi
to look to the U.S. and Europe
Q5. Why has Vietnam been reluctant to support Western sanctions against Russia?
ANSWER: Vietnam has a long-standing policy of opposing the unilateral imposition of
sanctions by one state against another. Vietnam has bitter experience as a result of
the U.S. trade embargo imposed in the 1960s during the Vietnam War.
Vietnam opposes not only Western sanctions on Russia but sanctions on Myanmar.
Vietnam’s position is that it will comply with sanctions only if they are approved by
the United Nations Security Council.
Vietnam is also practical, it does not want to harm relations with a Russia, a long-
standing reliable partner. With one exception, Vietnam and the majority of ASEAN
members have abstained in the UN General Assembly on resolutions critical of Russia.
Vietnam voted against the resolution to suspend Russia’s membership on the UN
Human Rights Council.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam and the U.S.-China-Russia Triangle,”

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 10, 2023. All background briefs are
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.