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A Simple Guide to the Con dence

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There is uncertainty everywhere: in simple decisions like shooting a basketball or complex

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ones like analyzing a data set. Uncertainty isn’t random, however, and you can usually
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predict, within a certain amount, how accurate your estimate will be. The con dence
Nov 3, 2016
interval formula is a way to calculate uncertainty in a given experiment. This article will
detail the con dence interval formula, why it’s important, and how to use it.

Con dence Interval Formula and De nition

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The con dence interval formula is an equation that, given a predetermined con dence
level, provides a range of values that you expect your result to fall within if you conduct the Academic Academic Research
experiment again.
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The most common con dence level is 95%, but other levels such as 90% and 99% can also Assessments
be used. If you use 95%, for example, you think that 95 out of 100 times, the estimate will
fall within the parameters of the con dence interval.

The formula for the con dence interval looks like this:

The con dence level is set by the alpha value used in the experiment and represents the
number of times (out of 100) you think the expected result will be reproduced. If the alpha
was .1, then the con dence level will be 1-.1=.9, or 90%.

The overall con dence interval represents the average of your estimate plus or minus the
variation within the estimate. This is the expected range of values, with a certain amount of
con dence, your values to fall into.

Why Is the Con dence Interval Formula Important?

Establishing a con dence interval is important in terms of probability and certainty. The
formula laid out above allows survey conductors to estimate how well results will be
reproduced and what they expect with a high degree of accuracy. Setting clear expectations
is an important part of understanding how well a survey is understood, acted on, and how
accurate an initial set of data might be. Additionally, setting expectations can be helpful
when conducting a customer needs analysis.

The con dence interval formula is also helpful for establishing con dence in a given
audience. When conducting surveys and outreach with your customers, it can be useful to
understand what they think and how they respond. The con dence interval allows you to
use this information to accurately predict how they should respond to future experiments
and will tell you if something changes in the audience.

Con dence Interval Formula Use Guide & Example

Here is a step-by-step guide for using the con dence interval formula. For this example, we
will use an imaginary sample of people shooting 100 free throws.

Find the Average Result

The rst piece of information you need is the sample mean. This is the average result
across all participants. To nd this, add up all the scores and divide them by the number of
participants.

Our sample for shots made is 75, 80, 75, 80, 90, 75, 85, 75, 90, 80. Adding these up and
dividing by the total shooters (10) gives us 80.5. This means that across all shooters, the
average score was 80.5. The con dence interval will calculate the certainty that the next
experiment will score the same average amount of shots.

Calculate Standard Deviation

After nding the sample average, you need to calculate the standard deviation. This will be
the difference from the average for the sample size. To nd the standard deviation, you
must subtract the sample mean from each individual result and square each answer. Then,
add them all up, and take the square rook of that number. This will be the sample standard
deviation.

For our example data set, this looks like: (75 – 80.5)² + (80 – 80.5)² + (75 – 80.5)² + (80 – 80.5)²
+ (90 – 80.5)² + (75 – 80.5)² + (85 – 80.5)² + (75 – 80.5)² + (90 – 80.5)² + (80 – 80.5)² = 30.25 +
0.25 + 30.25 + 0.25 + 90.25 + 30.25 + 20.25 + 30.25 + 90.25 + 0.25 = 322.5 ÷ 10 total shooters =
32.25.

Find Standard Error & Margin of Error

You can now use the sample mean and standard deviation to calculate the standard error
of your study. This number will represent how closely the sample represents the total
population. In our example of free throws, you calculator the standard error by dividing the
standard deviation by the size of the study: 32.25 / 10 = 3.225.

After guring out the standard error, you can easily calculate the margin of error. This tells
you how con dent you can be when conducting the same experiment for the total
population. A larger margin of error will mean less con dence in reproducing the results. To
nd this, multiply the standard error by two. For our data, this looks like: 3.225 x 2 = 6.45.

Plug in Your Numbers

Once you have your numbers, you can plug them into the formula and calculate your
con dence interval. We will assume that the Z-value is 95% and, therefore, 0.95.

Con dence interval (CI) = ‾X ± Z(S ÷ √n) = 80.5 ± 0.95(32.25 ÷ √10) = 80.5 ± 0.95(32.25 ÷ 3.16) =
80.5 ± 0.95(10.21) = 80.5 ± 9.70 = 90.2, 70.8.

Analyze the Results

The con dence interval formula determines if your results are likely to be repeated for the
total population of your sample. Higher con dence shows a higher probability of repetition,
while lower con dence shows a lower likelihood of seeing the same results. With these
numbers, you can get an accurate picture of the boundaries of expected results when you
conduct your experiment again. With that, you can analyze population changes and
predicted data.

Our con dence interval for people shooting free throws was between 90.2 and 70.8 free
throws made. This means the average amount of shots made should fall between these two
values (with 95% con dence) for the whole population.

Conclusion
With the con dence interval formula, you can accurately predict where people will land
based on previous results and your estimated con dence. This can help predict many
things, from future data to population changes, and hopefully, this guide helped uncover
some important insights for your next experiment.

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Paul VanZandt
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