China Real Estate Developers

31 July 2023 | 7:20PM CST
China Real Estate Developers

Affordability support the first key to ASP and valuation
recovery; COLI and Seazen our top picks
We expect more supportive measures to be announced by the government in the 证券研究报告

coming week post the July Politburo meeting, especially if these policies could help Research | Equity
improve household affordability and better enforce the “16 measures”. We see the risk
王逸, CFA
to our base-case industry and developers’ (mainly SOEs and quality POEs) sales estimates Yi Wang, CFA
+86(21)2401-8930 | yi.wang@gsgh.cn
as skewed to the upside and thus an increasingly compelling risk reward to our coverage 高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司
universe (both developer and PM), currently representing average 48% and 64% upside Goldman Sachs (China) Securities
For the exclusive use of ZHANGKAILI.KELLYZ@BYTEDANCE.COM
Company Limited
potential to our target prices, respectively.
李薇
Demand: We believe in addition to restoring household confidence, the government Vicky Li
+86(21)2401-8926 | vicky.li@gsgh.cn
might aim to improve households’ debt service capacity in the coming policy support 高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司
measures. We estimate that allowing roll-over of short-term household debt or Goldman Sachs (China) Securities
Company Limited
measures that could increase households’ labor income as a share of GDP would have
more meaningful positive impact on both property sales and debt service capacity. In 徐时
Shi Xu
addition, direct government funding support to the urban village redevelopment +86(21)2401-8929 | shi.x.xu@gsgh.cn
program should also help unlock pending demand in these large cities and/or inventory 高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司
Goldman Sachs (China) Securities
digestion. Company Limited
Supply: On the other hand, we estimate a Rmb4tn-5tn funding deficit for the industry 王梦雯
Mengwen Wang
during 2023E and 2024E by assuming Rmb12.3tn property sales and most of the debt +86(21)2401-8932 |
can be rolled over before end-2024. We expect greater government intervention in the mengwen.wang@gsgh.cn
f9c5706cd612420f9ffd0fa73e5c612c
高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司
next round of policy easing, as the impact of an incremental market-driven approach so Goldman Sachs (China) Securities
Company Limited
far has been limited. Potentially this could bring in liquidity improvement beyond just
meeting completion targets. 景恺彦
Kaiyan Jing
We refresh our scenario analysis on property sales for the industry and our coverage +86(21)2411-8092 | kaiyan.jing@gsgh.cn
高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司
universe under different government stimulus assumptions. Our base-case scenario Goldman Sachs (China) Securities
Company Limited
assumes ASPs gradually stabilize and sales recover in 4Q with the government potentially
introducing the next round of policy easing in the coming months.
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We reiterate our preference for SOE developers (COLI, on the CL, is our top pick) and quality
POE developers (Seazen, on the CL) as we expect all-round policy support to sustain their
construction pipeline (and thus saleable resources) and given their already better liquidity
position vs. peers. In our current base case we forecast +3% aggregated contract sales growth
for our Buy-rated developer names in 2H vs. -15% for the rest. In addition, our preference
within the PM sector continues to be PM companies with an SOE background given their
better scale growth visibility (on the back of more solid affiliated developers’ pipeline support
and stronger third-party expansion competitiveness), greater earnings growth resilience and
healthier cash collection.
More effective policies could stablize the market
Home price measures from both official (NBS) and private sources (Zhuge, CREIS) largely show
that property prices peaked during 2H18-3Q21 (though nationwide primary ASP still grew
c.10-20% during this peak period, according to NBS and CREIS tracking). While our prior
dissection of CREIS’ c.80-cities ASP since 2021 highlighted concerns about property ASP
pressures, we note 1/3rd of the c.70-100 cities with a price index available have since seen
property prices fall below the 2H18 level (which is 10%-15% below peak in 3Q21 nationwide).
We are watching two areas in particular for signs of stabilization or further weakness:
 Weaker secondary: Our cross-check (Exhibit 2) indicates a greater price decline in the
secondary market (49%/33% of sample saw secondary ASP decline per Zhuge/NBS) than
the primary market (21%/11% of sample saw primary ASP decline per CREIS/NBS). Given
a widespread price decline below the 2018 level (i.e. the beginning of the peak period),
households holding property of peak ASP vintage may be carrying a capital loss with weak
sentiment on the outlook for a price recovery.
 More supply pressure: As property sales generated since 2018 accounted for more than
half of total property sales, we estimate 70-90% of the value of outstanding mortgages
(Rmb39tn) would have been generated since 2018. Homeowners who purchased
property at peak ASP levels might become incrementally less incentivized to continue
mortgage payments and some could potentially choose to sell their properties, adding
more supply pressure to the market.
Therefore, we believe further government measures to stabilize the property market and
improve homebuyer confidence would be crucial to improve the supply-demand dynamics.
Please also refer to our prior reports (here, here, here and here) on the latest market
developments.
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Exhibit 1: Since 2018, most of the current outstanding Exhibit 2: We note a considerable portion of cities’ YTD
Rmb39tn in mortgages are for new property sales property ASPs have dropped below the late 2018 level
Share of 2018-1Q2023 property sales out of aggregate 1998- Number and share of cities with 1H23 property sales prices below
1Q2023, vs. estimated share of outstanding mortgage generated 2H18 level, by different city samples and sources
since 2018
Note: CREIS tracks c.100 cities' ASP on monthly basis, amongst which c.70 cities
has available data series for comparison vs. 2H18.
Source: NBS, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Zhugei, complied by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
We expect increasing policy focus on household affordability
We introduce our China household cash flow analysis1 to examine Chinese household liquidity
and potential headroom for a recovery in property sales. We believe this analysis helps us to
better understand what has impeded a recovery in housing demand than the conventional
household leverage assessment (i.e. debt exposure as % of GDP and disposable income, etc.)
that builds upon a balance sheet framework. Our key takeaways from historical data, as
summarized in Exhibit 3-9, are:
 Moderated cash flow in 2022: We estimate total China household inflow and outflow
continuously rose to Rmb89tn/75tn in 2021, and moderated to Rmb88tn/72tn in 2022,
amongst which i) 2018-21 registered negative household cash net flow (excl. new
household loans), underlined by high home purchases and debt services; while ii) 2022
saw a recovery in household net cash inflow, mostly driven by lower home purchases;
 In terms of breakdown, we see i) labor income continued to contribute over 70% of total
China household cash inflow, followed by household debt, with the latter has been
growing faster since 2014; ii) amongst household cash outflow, consumption
expenditure, home purchase and debt service are the three major items, with debt
service steadily climbing to 18% in 2022 (more than double the level in 2010) while the
share of home purchases and consumption expenditure respectively peaked/bottomed
out in FY20 and contracted/rose to 16%/62% in 2022, vs. average 22%/59% in 2019-2021.
1Our cash flow analysis framework took some reference from a study by ZHU He, deputy director of the
research department of China Finance 40 Forum (CF40) and WANG Shennan, professor from Beijing
Technology and Business University (Zhu & Wang).
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 Home purchases as % of household income peaked in 2020 and meaningfully declined

over the past few years to less than 20%; consumption expenditure as % of disposable
income remained broadly steady at 63% in 2020-22 and slightly below average 65% in
2016-2019.
 We note a decline in household capability to service overall debt and interest payment
(i.e. labor income minus consumption expenditure against total debt service and interest
payment) to respectively 1.2X and 4.6X in 2022, vs. average 1.3X/4.7X in 2018-2022; that
said, we think household debt and interest coverage have remained at a safe level
(overseas experiences suggest 1.5X for interest coverage is safety threshold).
 A dip in mortgage balance: We estimate mortgage balance accounted for 52% of total
household debt by end-22, lower than average 54% in 2018-2021, and new mortgage
accounted for a) only 18% of FY22 gross new household loan additions, vs. avg. 37% in
2018-2021, and b) 21% of FY22 property sales, vs. avg. 38% in 2018-2021.
Exhibit 3: China household aggregated cash inflow and Exhibit 4: … with net cash flow (excl. new loans) recovering
outflow moderated in 2022 to positive levels, mainly driven by lower home purchases
Total China household cash inflow and outflow, 2008-2022 China household net cash flow and net cash flow (excluding new
household loans), 2008-2022
Source: NBS, Wind, MOF, PBOC, Chinawealth, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Source: NBS, Wind, MOF, PBOC, Chinawealth, Goldman Sachs Global Investment
Research Research
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Exhibit 5: Labor income continues to contribute over 70% of Exhibit 6: Debt service as % of total household cash outflow
total China household cash inflow has been rising in recent years
Breakdown of China household cash inflow, 2008-2022 Breakdown of China household cash outflow, 2008-2022
Research Research
Exhibit 7: Home purchases as % of household labor income Exhibit 8: Despite rising debt services, we see household debt
trended down since 2020 and interest coverage ratio remaining at a safe level
Share of consumption expenditure and home purchases as Household debt services and coverage ratio for China, 2008-2022
percentage of household labor income, 2008-2022
Note: * We use (Labor income- Consumption) expenditure as the numerator; we see
1.5X interest coverage ratio as safety threshold from overseas experiences
Source: NBS, Wind, MOF, PBOC, Chinawealth, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Source: NBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Research
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Exhibit 9: Mortgages accounted for 52% of total household Exhibit 10: … and only 18% of FY22 gross new loan additions,
debt exposure by end-22, lower than avg 54% in 2018-21 vs. prior 30%-40% level
China household debt balance by loan types, 2008-2022 China household debt gross addition by loan types, 2008-2022
Source: Wind, PBOC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: NBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Debt service capacity improvement could lift the headroom for

property sales recovery
We conduct a scenario analysis (Exhibit 11-12) on different cash flow, household labor
income and mortgage rate assumptions, to examine the potential for a recovery in home
purchase demand:
 Keeping other assumptions intact, a break-even or surplus scenario, in which we assume

respectively Rmb0tn/3tn net cash flow (excl. new household loans, vs. average Rmb1.7tn
and peak level Rmb4.3tn in 2008-2022, would suggest Rmb13.5tn/10.5tn home sales in
23E, i.e. +15%/-10% yoy, and Rmb12.5tn/9.5tn in 24E, i.e. +7%/-18% compared to FY22
level.
 We believe the ability for households to potentially roll over their short-term debt could
meaningfully help ease debt service stress and reinforce household cash flow, all else
equal. We estimate that ST debt repayments accounted for c.60%-70% of total annual
household debt repayments since 2010, or equivalent to c.45%-50% of total debt service.
Assuming a successful roll-over of ST debt in 2023E/24E, households would see
c.Rmb6tn/7.5tn less cash outflow, substantially improving their debt service coverage
ratio to approx. a 2.0X level, vs. our current estimate of 1.0X-1.1X for 2023E-2024E.
 We expect higher income distribution to households to meaningfully boost household

cash available for housing. We note that DM’s labor income as % of GDP stood at 55%-
65% since 2020, above China’s 50% in FY22. Taking 23E for example, our scenario analysis
suggests a 2-10pt yoy higher share of household labor income/GDP to 52%-60% in 23E
(vs. 50% in FY22 and DMs 55% to 65%) would help boost 23E property sales to Rmb14tn-
Rmb16.3tn in our break-even case, i.e. a 20% to 39% yoy growth, or Rmb11tn-Rmb13.3tn
under our surplus case, i.e. a -5% to 14% yoy growth, all else equal.
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 In addition, we believe lower mortgage rates might help: every 100bps reduction in
mortgage rate from the current weighted average level of 4.5% could translate into
approx. Rmb0.4tn additional property sales p.a. for both 2023E and 2024E under both
break-even and surplus scenarios, all else equal.
 That said, in Exhibit 13-14, we look at the current household debt service coverage
status: even assuming unchanged household total debt balance level since 2H23E, we see
growing pressure for household debt services and limited headroom for presales
recovery (i.e. debt service coverage ratio approaching 1X) while at the same time rather
limited headroom for presales recovery (i.e. pegged at Rmb10tn-13tn p.a. level). We
believe a potentially lower mortgage interest rate in combination with expanding income
distribution to the household sector might help boost home sales back to c.Rmb18tn p.a.
level while keeping household debt service coverage at 2018-21 levels.
Exhibit 11: We see some headroom for home purchases with household net cash flow remaining at
break-even status
Scenario analysis for 2023E/24E home purchases under different net flow (excl. new loans) cases
(Rmb tn) Break-even Surplus
Net flow (excl. new loans) 0.0 3.0
Home purchases in 23E 13.5 10.5
-- implied yoy agaisnt 22A 15% -10%
Home purchases in 24E 12.5 9.5
-- implied difference agaisnt 22A 7% -18%
Source: NBS, Wind, MOF, PBOC, Zhu & Wang, Chinawealth, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 12: Our scenario analysis suggests a higher share of household labor income/GDP (50% in FY22, vs. DMs 55% to 65%)
would meaningfully boost household cash available for housing purchases …
Scenario analysis for 2023E/24E home purchases under different net flow (excl. new loans) and labor income as share of GDP cases
Net flow (excl. new loans) Net flow (excl. new loans)
2023E Home purchases (Rmb tn) 2024E Home purchases (Rmb tn)
Break-even Surplus Break-even Surplus
50% 13.5 10.5 50% 12.5 9.5
Labor income as 52% 14.0 11.0 Labor income as 52% 13.1 10.1
% of GDP 55% 14.9 11.9 % of GDP 55% 13.9 10.9
60% 16.3 13.3 60% 15.3 12.3
Net flow (excl. new loans) Net flow (excl. new loans)
-- implied yoy agaisnt 22A -- implied difference agaisnt 22A
Break-even Surplus Break-even Surplus
50% 15% -10% 50% 7% -18%
Labor income as 52% 20% -5% Labor income as 52% 12% -14%
% of GDP 55% 27% 2% % of GDP 55% 19% -6%
60% 39% 14% 60% 31% 5%
Source: NBS, Wind, MOF, PBOC, Chinawealth, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Exhibit 13: Assuming unchanged household total debt balance Exhibit 14: Debt service ratio could potentially be improved
since 2H23E, we see growing pressure for household debt with lower mortgage rate and higher income distribution to
service and limited headroom for a recovery in presales the household sector
Implied Home purchases and debt service coverage ratio under Implied Home purchases and debt service coverage ratio under
household cash flow break-even and surplus cases, 2008-2024E household cash flow break-even and surplus cases and more
favorable mortgage rates/income distribution conditions, 2008-
2024E
Note: * debt service coverage ratio stay the same under both cases
Research Research
Exhibit 15: Summary of key calculations and assumptions in our household cash flow for our scenario analysis
Source: NBS, Wind, MOF, PBOC, Zhu & Wang, Chinawealth, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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More public intervention to address industry funding gap
After updating our analysis for the latest developer industry financial statements (prior
discussions here and here), we now estimate a Rmb4tn-5tn funding deficit assuming i)
Rmb12.3tn property sales for 2023-2024 (i.e. -8%/flattish yoy respectively) and ii) most of the
debt can be rolled over before end-24E; iii) cash balance to stay at c.10% total asset level in
order for developers to keep normal operations. In our view, such funding would need to be
filled by a) potential inventory sales (our estimated inventory balance at Rmb64tn/63tn by
end-23E/24E), b) a meaningful recovery in property sales (echoing our household cash flow
analysis) or c) additional debt raising as well as liquidity supported by various government
credit enhancement programs.
Exhibit 16: The developer industry in general will still see challenges, with Rmb4tn-5tn funding deficit over the coming 2 years...
Our updated industry financials model
(Rmb tn) 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E

Requirement 1: (total liabilities - presales
deposits) to (total assets - presales 74% 74% 75% 77% 77%
deposits)
Requirement 2: net debt to equity

53% 68% 73% 86% 88%
(excl. PCS)
Requirement 3: cash/S-T debt ratio 2.5X 1.5X 1.4X 1.2X 0.9X
P&L (Rmb tn)

National property sales 16.0 18.2 13.3 12.3 12.3
yoy 0% 14% -27% -8% 0%
Revenue 11.9 15.5 13.9 14.5 14.6

COGS -8.1 -11.6 -11.5 -12.2 -12.4
Gross Profit 3.7 3.9 2.4 2.3 2.2
Net Profit 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
B/S (Rmb tn)
Cash 11 7 6 6 4
Inventory 64 66 66 64 63
Account receivables 11 14 12 12 11
Other assets 21 19 18 18 17
Total assets 106 106 102 99 96
ST debt 4 5 5 5 5
LT debt 17 15 15 15 14
Presale deposits 26 28 28 27 26
Account payables 27 26 25 25 24
Other Liabilities 12 12 12 12 12
Total liabilities 86 86 84 83 80
Total equities 21 20 18 16 16
Source: NBS, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Exhibit 17: ...assuming a cash balance at 10% of total assets, remaining debt would have to be addressed with asset disposals,
Rmb tn 2022 2023E 2024E

Beginning cash balance 6.9 6.4 5.5
Cash inflow 15.5 13.5 13.8

Property sales 13.3 12.3 12.3
Assume % current year cash collection ratio 80% 83% 85%
Cash received from contracted sales 14.8 12.8 13.1
Other income (ie. rental) 0.7 0.7 0.7
Cash outflow -16.5 -14.1 -13.6

Land premium -5.2 -3.6 -3.4
Construction cost -8.7 -7.9 -7.5
SG&A -0.7 -0.6 -0.6
Business tax and LAT -0.7 -0.7 -0.7
Income tax -0.0 - -
Net interest expense -1.2 -1.4 -1.3
Interest expense -1.3 -1.5 -1.3
Interest income 0.1 0.1 0.1
Dividend -0.0 - -
Other working capital changes 1.1 -0.2 -0.6

Account receivables 2.1 0.1 0.5
Account payables -1.2 -1.3 -2.2
Others 0.3 1.0 1.1

Funding gap before financing cash flow 7.0 5.5 5.2
Net debt repayment (assume S-T debt to rollover) -0.6 -0.0 -0.7
Implied ending cash balance 6.4 5.5 4.5

Target cash balance @ 10% of total asset 10 10 10
Shortfall to be filled by inventory sales/
additional debt raising/credit enhancement -3.8 -4.4 -5.2
Source: NBS, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risk-reward skewed to the upside; top picks Buy-rated COLI and Seazen
(both on CL)
Stocks under our coverage saw a strong performance at the beginning of the year on
expectations of a recovery in property sales post reopening as well as the potential impact
from the government’s “16 measures”. But with the property market starting to soften after
April gains, share price declines started to accelerate until early June when expectations on
policy measures increased alongside rising concerns on accelerating ASP decline, even in high-
tier cities. However, the rebound soon faded on muted policy reaction after that.
The July Politburo meeting revived policy easing expectations, leading to 18% and 15%
rebounds in our developer and PM coverage in recent days and most names are back to June
highs. Our developer and PM sector is currently trading at an average 0.6x 2023E P/B and 12x
2023E P/E (against 19% 2023E-2025E EPS CAGR), still at the lower-end of its trading range
since this downturn. We believe physical market stabilization is key for a valuation recovery in
both SOE and POE stocks in our coverage.
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Exhibit 18: Share price performance of coverage developers Exhibit 19: 12mth trailing P/B of Coverage developers YTD, vs.
YTD, vs. yoy growth of monthly national property sales yoy growth of monthly national property sales
Source: Datastream, Company data, NBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Source: Datastream, Company data, NBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment
Research Research
Exhibit 20: Share price performance of coverage PM Exhibit 21: 12mth forward P/E of coverage PM companies
companies YTD, vs. yoy growth of monthly national property YTD, vs. yoy growth of monthly national property sales
sales
Source: Datastream, Company data, NBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Source: Datastream, Company data, NBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment
Research Research
We will assess in detail the impact to the industry and our coverage universe once details of
the policy easing are announced. We do not expect a massive stimulus to drive a full
turnaround of the industry outlook but rather a gradual stabilization in ASP and a recovery in
sales in 4Q, assuming the government introduces next round of policy easing in the coming
months. Below, we summarize our bear, base and bull-case scenarios for government policy
easing and corresponding 2H23 property sales for the industry and our coverage universe:
 Bear-case: The government does not implement many new types of easing in the coming
months or macro challenges persist;
 Base-case: The government gradually introduces new easing in the coming months that
moderately improve affordability and reduce industry liquidity pressure (i.e., more public
intervention);
 Bull-case: The government launches policies in the coming weeks that substantially
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improve affordability (equivalent to a 10% reduction in property prices) and meaningfully

reduce industry liquidity pressure (resulting in no more defaults from large-scale private
developers), such as relaxing presale deposit controls and more enhanced enforcement
of the 16 measures.
Exhibit 22: We estimate industry sales would post -29%/-16%/+2% yoy in 2H23E in our bear/base/bull policy scenarios…
Bottom-up estimate of industry sales in 2H23E
Source: NBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 23: …and developers in our coverage universe to post median presales -4%/+6%/+16% in 2H23 in our bear/base/bull case
scenarios, post the 1% yoy recovery in 1H23

Summary of our 2H23E presales forecast for developers in our coverage universe
Note: Some coverage FHLP developers' implied 2H23E yoy contract sales growth might appear high, largely distorted by base effect.
Source: Company announcements, CRIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Even in our bull-case scenario, while we await details on potential policy easing, we remain
cautious for developers which have seen recent liquidity pressures; Sell on R&F and KWG,
Neutral on Powerlong. We reiterate our preference for SOE developers (our top pick COLI is
on the CL) and quality POE developers (Seazen, also on the CL), given we expect all-round
policy support to sustain their construction pipeline (and thus saleable resources).
In our current base case we forecast +3% aggregated contract sales yoy growth for our Buy-
rated developer names in 2H23E vs. -15% for the rest. In addition, our preference within the
PM sector continues to be PM companies with an SOE background given their better scale
growth visibility (on the back of more solid affiliated developers’ pipeline support and
stronger third-party expansion competitiveness), greater earnings growth resilience and
healthier cash collection.
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COLI and Seazen remain our top picks in the sector

COLI (688.HK): COLI’s shares have priced in the highest impairment loss among SOE (state-
owned enterprise) peers, which we consider is unjustified given COLI’s peer-leading asset
quality and liquidity position. With potential market stabilization/recovery in 4Q as per our
expectation, we believe COLI is best positioned to take share from POEs. We expect COLI’s
share price to continue to outperform on the back of its strong balance sheet to capture low-
cost investment for future growth amid a volatile industry environment. We look for 18% yoy
contract sales growth in 2H vs. average 6% for our covered SOE names and our Bear/Bull-case
(Exhibit 23) suggests 8%/28% growth in 2H for COLI vs. -23%/-7% for our covered SOE names.
The stock is trading at 0.5X 2023E P/B and 4.7% 2023E dividend yield vs. SOEs average of 0.6X
and 5%. Reiterate Buy (on CL) and 12-month NAV based price target of HK$28.4, implying 56%
upside. Key risks: Sales and margin miss; below expectation land banking scale that could
hamper its longer-term growth outlook.
Seazen (1030.HK): We not only see higher beta of valuation recovery in the near term on
likely abating financing concerns (faster than peers) amid more focused government easing
cycle, but also a longer runway for valuation upside on its earnings trajectory that is more
visible than peers given its sizable mall portfolio, which we think will benefit from potential
government policy stimulus to boost consumption further as mentioned during July politburo
meeting. Although we expect -10% yoy decline of contract sales in 2H vs. 5% for POE average,
we believe stable rental income contribution and growth (10-12% of topline, 35-40% of gross
profit and 10-15% yoy rental growth for 2023E-2024E) should more than offset the impact
from lower sales (partly due to base effect; developers which have seen recent liquidity
pressures have significantly low base for 2H last year). The stock is trading at 0.3X 2023E P/B
vs. SOE developers average at 0.6X, and we see the liquidity concerns overly weighing on the
stock at current levels. We reiterate Buy (on CL) and 12-month NAV based price target of
HK$4.3, implying 154% upside. Key risks: Execution slippage of mall operations may trigger
margin erosion, liquidity pressure and reputation risk; weaker property sales on prolonged
property demand weakness despite policy easing; unexpected difficulties in access to funding.
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Exhibit 24: China developers' valuation comparisons

Source: Datastream, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 25: China PM companies' valuation comparisons
Source: Datastream, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Disclosure Appendix
Reg AC
We, Yi Wang, Vicky Li, Shi Xu, Mengwen Wang and Kaiyan Jing, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about
the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research division.
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Quantum
Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of
a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets.
Disclosures
The rating(s) for China Overseas Land & Investment and Seazen Group Ltd is/are relative to the other companies in its/their coverage universe: Agile Group, CIFI
Holdings, China Evergrande Group, China Jinmao Holdings, China Merchants Shekou Inds Zone, China Overseas Grand Oceans Group, China Overseas Land &
Investment, China Resources Land, China Vanke (A), China Vanke (H), Country Garden Holdings, Gemdale Corp., Greentown China Holdings, Guangzhou R&F
Properties, Joy City Property Ltd., KWG Group, Longfor Group, Poly Developments and Holdings, Powerlong Real Estate Holdings, Red Star Macalline Group, Seazen
Group Ltd, Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town, Sunac China Holdings
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US securities law) as of the month end preceding this report: Seazen Group Ltd (HK$1.73)
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(HK$18.40) and Seazen Group Ltd (HK$1.73)
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Group Ltd (HK$1.73)
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Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships

Goldman Sachs Investment Research global Equity coverage universe
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15
Price target and rating history chart(s)

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China Real Estate Developers - Affordability Support The First Key To ASP and Valuation Recovery COLI and Seazen Our Top Picks

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China Real Estate Developers - Affordability Support The First Key To ASP and Valuation Recovery COLI and Seazen Our Top Picks

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We expect more supportive measures to be announced by the government in the 证券研究报告

More effective policies could stablize the market

has available data series for comparison vs. 2H18.

We expect increasing policy focus on household affordability

 Home purchases as % of household income peaked in 2020 and meaningfully declined

Debt service capacity improvement could lift the headroom for

 Keeping other assumptions intact, a break-even or surplus scenario, in which we assume

 We expect higher income distribution to households to meaningfully boost household

More public intervention to address industry funding gap

(Rmb tn) 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E

Requirement 2: net debt to equity

Requirement 3: cash/S-T debt ratio 2.5X 1.5X 1.4X 1.2X 0.9X

P&L (Rmb tn)

Revenue 11.9 15.5 13.9 14.5 14.6

Source: NBS, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Rmb tn 2022 2023E 2024E

Cash inflow 15.5 13.5 13.8

Cash outflow -16.5 -14.1 -13.6

Other working capital changes 1.1 -0.2 -0.6

Others 0.3 1.0 1.1

Implied ending cash balance 6.4 5.5 4.5

Source: NBS, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

improve affordability (equivalent to a 10% reduction in property prices) and meaningfully

Source: NBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

scenarios, post the 1% yoy recovery in 1H23

Source: Company announcements, CRIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

COLI and Seazen remain our top picks in the sector

Exhibit 24: China developers' valuation comparisons

Source: Datastream, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 25: China PM companies' valuation comparisons

Source: Datastream, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships

Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships

Price target and rating history chart(s)

Ratings, coverage universe and related definitions

Global product; distributing entities

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