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18 January 2023 | 4:01PM EST

Americas Technology: Internet

Q4 ‘22 Gaming Industry Preview – Analyzing the Industry


Debates & Estimates
Ahead of the Q4 ’22 earnings season, we take the opportunity to frame some of the Eric Sheridan
+1(917)343-8683 | eric.sheridan@gs.com
key operating performance and industry themes that we expect to encounter within Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

the gaming (PC, console, mobile) industry in the coming weeks. In summary, we Lane Czura
+1(917)343-8682 | lane.czura@gs.com
see the industry facing: 1) a console cycle that is beginning to track along more Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

normative trends as global supply chain issues abate post-pandemic; 2) calendar Pierre Riopel
+1(212)934-4505 | pierre.riopel@gs.com
2023/2024 are set up across the industry with a robust pipeline of content releases Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
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that could be supportive of re-accelerating revenue growth while also raising some Sarah Boulos
+1(212)357-0476 | sarah.boulos@gs.com
concerns about competitive intensity; 3) mobile gaming headwinds beginning to Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

stabilize (post pandemic lift in growth/engagement followed by mid ’21 to mid ’22
headwinds from Apple privacy changes); & 4) open-ended questions about how
volatile consumer behavior (with the majority of investor expectations aligned with a
downtick or recession) could impact spending habits in the coming 6-9 months.

We also present updated estimates for our GS Global Gaming TAM (addressable
market) – framed as ~$228bn in 2021, across ~3bn players globally. Mobile
accounts for a majority of spend at ~$143bn in 2021 (or ~63% of total), while
console game software (~$47bn, ~21%) and PC games (~$38bn, ~17%) accounted
for the remainder of the market. We expect the market to decline -6% YoY in 2022e
(to ~$214bn), led by ongoing weakness in mobile (-11% YoY). For the forward
2023-2026 period, we see growth reaccelerating to a +7% CAGR, as mobile

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recovers (towards a more normalized +9% CAGR) and as console and PC see a
slight reacceleration towards a +3/+5% annual cadence, respectively. In terms of
forward estimates, we broadly inject an additional layer of conservatism in revenue
estimates over the coming 6-9 months to reflect the uncertain backdrop for
consumer spending and low visibility into content launches (apart from already
announced titles). As a derivative impact, such reduction in revenue (when coupled
with strong content pipeline development costs) puts a downward pressure on
near-term earnings estimates (which could prove to be conservative). Looking
long-term, we are increasingly constructive on the broader industry backdrop (as
reflected in our updated global industry modeling).

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC
certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
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Exhibit 1: Summary of Ratings & 12-Month Price Targets


12-Month 12-Month Current % Upside /
Ticker Company Rating
PT (Old) PT (New) Price Downside
EA Electronic Arts Neutral $126 $131 $124 6%
RBLX Roblox Sell $24 $19 $37 -49%
TTWO Take-Two Interactive Buy $150 $155 $105 48%
APP AppLovin Buy $33 $21 $11 93%
PLTK Playtika Neutral $15 $15 $10 53%
UBI Ubisoft Neutral € 37 € 22 € 20 10%
SCPL Sciplay Buy $20 $22 $16 38%

Pricing as of 01/17/23 close

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


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GS Global Gaming Market

We present updated estimates for our GS Global Gaming TAM (Exhibit 2), first
introduced by our Japan Games & Entertainment team in their recent initiation (link). We
size the Global Gaming market at ~$228bn in 2021, across ~3bn players globally. Mobile
accounts for a majority of spend at ~$143bn in 2021 (or ~63% of total), while console
game software (~$47bn, 21%) and PC games (~$38bn, 17%) accounted for the
remainder of the market. We expect the market to decline -6% YoY in 2022e (to
~$214bn), led by ongoing weakness in mobile (-11% YoY). For the following 2023-26e
period, we see growth reaccelerating to a +7% CAGR, as mobile recovers (towards a
more normalized +9% CAGR) and as console and PC see a slight reacceleration towards
a +3/+5% annual cadence, respectively. On a regional basis (Exhibit 3), North America
was the largest region in terms of spending in 2021, at ~25% of total, followed by China
at 20% and Western Europe at 17%.
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Exhibit 2: Global Gaming Market - By Platform (GSe) Exhibit 3: Global Gaming Market - By Region (GSe)
$bn $bn

300 300

250 250
93
Global game market ($ bn)

Global game market ($ bn)

86
78
200 200 62 71
183 9
169 51 63 8
155 15
141 10 8 15
150 143 128 150 9 16 8 14
124 39 8 14 47
28 17 13 45
7 43
96 24 7 46 38 40
80 14 14 40
100 100 21 6 46
68 5 12 33 42 44
54 46 48 12 32 38 40
38 39 42 44 30 36 37
35 25
50 34 34 50 26 29
31 33 20 22 68 73
48 50 51 53 52 57 54 59 63
31 33 46 47 46 38 40
23 25 27 31
- 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

Console game software PC Mobile / Tablet North America Western Europe China Japan Korea Others

Source: IDC, Newzoo, CNG, MSCT, App Annie, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Source: IDC, Newzoo, Kadokawa, MSCT, App Annie, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global

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Research Investment Research

Forward Pipeline Remains Robust

Ninth Console Cycle Expected to Surpass Prior Cycle By 2025


Coming out of the pandemic, there has been a focus on how the console cycle is
evolving for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S as investors expect AAA publishers to
hold off on releasing key premium titles (with the exception of annual sports franchises)
until there is a large enough installed base. Given the lack of disclosure around Xbox
consoles, we assess how Sony’s PlayStation 5 (release date Nov 2020) has performed
relative to PlayStation 4 (release date Nov 2013). As can be seen in Exhibit 4, the
PlayStation 5 has sold less units on a cumulative basis compared to PlayStation 4 during
the same timeframe given supply constraints tied to the pandemic as the PlayStation 5
was released in November 2020. With this, there has also been a lower cumulative
tie-ratio (software units per hardware unit) to date as AAA publishers have delayed
premium titles, with management teams citing production delays related to COVID and

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Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

longer development cycles to take advantage of advanced technology with the new
generation of consoles. Goldman Sachs’ Sony analyst Minami Munakata forecasts
PlayStation 5 sell-in and cumulative tie ratio to be on par with PlayStation 4 by 2024,
with the expected positive inflection in the PlayStation 5 tie ratio in 2023 indicating that
AAA publishers will be releasing more premium titles in 2023 and beyond.

Exhibit 4: Current Console Cycle vs. Prior Console Cycle - Unit Sell-In & Tie Ratio
mm

140 14.0

120 12.0

100 10.0

80 8.0

60 6.0
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40 4.0

20 2.0

0 0.0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7

PS4 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

PS5 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

PS4 Unit Sell-In PS5 Unit Sell-In PS4 Cumulative tie ratio PS5 Cumulative tie ratio

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

While the 9th generation of consoles still lags behind the 8th generation (in terms of
lifetime units sold on a comparative basis), AAA publishers’ pipeline remained robust in
FY2023 (Exhibit 5) with the recent launches of Overwatch 2, Marvel’s Midnight Suns,
NHL 2023 and Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope in 3FQ23 and the upcoming launches

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of more games in 4FQ23, including Star Wars Jedi: Survivor, Dead Space, PGA TOUR,
Grand Theft Auto: The Trilogy (mobile). We note that Ubisoft recently pushed Skull and
Bones to early FY24 (start April 2023), with management highlighting the extra time
being allocated towards polishing the game (which was slated for FY23 prior to the
announcement).

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Exhibit 5: FY2023 Pipeline


3FQ23 (Released)
Company Game Platform
ATVI Overwatch 2 PS5, Xbox X|S, PC, XBO, PS4, Switch
ATVI World of Warcraft: Dragonflight PC
EA NHL 2023 PS5, Xbox X|S, PS4, XBO
EA Need for Speed Unbound PS5, Xbox X|S, PC
TTWO PGA Tour 2K23 PS5, Xbox X|S, PC, XBO, PS4
TTWO New Tales from the Borderlands PS5, Xbox X|S, PC, XBO, PS4, Switch
TTWO Marvel's Midnight Suns PS4, XBO, Switch
UBI Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope Switch
UBI Just Dance 2023 Switch, PS5, Xbox X|S, PC

4FQ23
Company Game Platform
EA Star Wars Jedi: Survivor PS5, Xbox X|S, PC
EA Wild Hearts PS5, Xbox X|S, PC
EA Dead Space PS5, Xbox X|S, PC
EA PGA TOUR TBA
EA Super Mega Baseball TBA
TTWO WWE 2K23 TBA
TTWO Grand Theft Auto: The Trilogy (mobile) iOS | Android
TTWO Kerbal Space Program 2 PC (PS5, Xbox X|S to follow)
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Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Looking beyond FY2023, AAA publishers have a robust set of content planned, most
notably: Diablo IV (ATVI; expected in June CY2023), GTA VI (TTWO; timing TBA), Avatar:
Frontier of Pandora (UBI; expected in FY2024), and an array of content from UBI’s
Assassin’s Creed franchise.

Exhibit 6: Forward Pipeline in FY2024 & Beyond


FY2024 & Beyond
ATVI Diablo IV
ATVI Warcraft Arclight Rumble [mobile]
ATVI Call of Duty
ATVI Crash Team Rumble
EA FIFA
EA Madden
EA Formula 1
EA UFC
EA NHL
EA The Lord of the Rings: Heroes of Middle-Earth
EA Immortals of Aveum

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TTWO NBA 2K
TTWO PGA 2K
TTWO WWE 2K
TTWO GTA VI
TTWO Star Wars Hunters [cross-platform Switch, iOS, Android]
TTWO Judas
TTWO After Us
UBI Skull and Bones
UBI Avatar: Frontier of Pandora
UBI Prince of Persia
UBI Beyond Good & Evil 2
UBI AC: Mirage
UBI AC: Codename Red
UBI AC: Codename Jade [mobile]
UBI AC: Codename Hexe
UBI AC: Project Infinity
UBI TC: The Division Year 5
UBI TC: The Division Resurgence [mobile]
UBI TC: The Division Heartland [F2P on PC/Console]
UBI TC: Rainbow Six [mobile]
UBI Xdefiant [F2P on PC/console]

Source: Company data, Compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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Spend & Engagement Have Started to Stabilize in Q4’22

As can be seen below in Exhibit 7, US video game sales (across content, hardware and
accessories) started to stabilize in October, following almost a full year of declines (with
November +3% YoY and December stable). The improvement was mostly driven by
hardware sales, which declined -9% YoY in October, but grew by a meaningful +45%
YoY in November and +16% YoY in December (with Oct only representing ~13% of Q4
sales, vs. Nov 39%, Dec 48%), as the latest consoles continue to see adoption. Content
sales grew +2% YoY in October and declined -5%/-3% YoY in November/December.
Accessories sales declined -8% YoY in October and grew +10%/2% YoY in
November/December. We note that October is the smallest month in terms of absolute
dollar contribution to Q4’22, only representing 24% of total sales, vs.
November/December accounting for 35%/42%.
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Exhibit 7: US Video Game Sales


$mm, Nov ‘20-Dec ‘22

$9,000 160%
$8,000 140%
120%
$7,000
100%
$6,000 80%
$5,000 60%
$4,000 40%
$3,000 20%
0%
$2,000
-20%
$1,000 -40%
$0 -60%
Jan-21

Jun-21
Jul-21

Jan-22

Jul-22
Nov-20
Dec-20

Feb-21
Mar-21

Nov-21
Dec-21

Feb-22

Jun-22
Mar-22

Nov-22
Dec-22
Sep-21

Aug-22
Sep-22
Aug-21
Apr-21
May-21

Oct-21

Apr-22
May-22

Oct-22

Video Game Hardware Video Game Content


Video Game Accessories YoY Growth - Hardware
YoY Growth - Content YoY Growth - Accessories

Source: NPD, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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Looking at the top selling games in the US (Exhibit 8), november’s top 10 included the
following games from our covered companies: ATVI’s Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II
(2022) (#1), EA’s FIFA 23 (#6), Madden NFL 23 (#5) and TTWO’s NBA 2K23 (#7). In
December, the top 10 included: ATVI’s Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II (2022) (#1,
stable), EA’s Madden NFL 23 (#4, up +1 position), FIFA 23 (#5, up +1 position), Need for
Speed: Unbound (#8). However, we note that the monthly rankings are highly
dependent on timing of release and that this data tracks sales for the US only, with
certain titles over/under-indexing to the US (e.g., Madden vs. FIFA). Looking at the last
twelve months, which tends to show more stability relative to monthly rankings, the top
10 included one title from ATVI (Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II (2022) (#1) and two
titles from EA (Madden NFL 23 (#3) and FIFA 23 (#7)).

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Exhibit 8: Top 10 US Games (November, December & LTM as of December)


US Sales
November December LTM as of Dec 2022
1 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II (2022) (ATVI) 1 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II (2022) (ATVI) 1 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II (2022) (ATVI)
2 God of War Ragnarök 2 Pokémon Scarlet/Violet* 2 Elden Ring
3 Pokémon Scarlet/Violet* 3 God of War Ragnarök 3 Madden NFL 23 (EA)
4 Sonic Frontiers 4 Madden NFL 23 (EA) 4 God of War: Ragnarök
5 Madden NFL 23 (EA) 5 FIFA 23 (EA) 5 LEGO Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga
6 FIFA 23 (EA) 6 Sonic Frontiers 6 Pokémon: Scarlet/Violet*
7 NBA 2K23* (TTWO) 7 Elden Ring 7 FIFA 23 (EA)
8 Gotham Knights 8 Need for Speed: Unbound (EA) 8 Pokémon Legends: Arceus*
9 Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales 9 Mario Kart 8* 9 Horizon II: Forbidden West
10 Mario Party Superstars* 10 Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII: Reunion 10 MLB: The Show 22^
*Digital sales not included; ^Xbox & Switch digital sales not included

Source: NPD, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

To provide a quarterly health check of gaming user growth and engagement, we


leverage trends from Steam (the leading online digital PC games marketplace) and
Twitch (the leading live gaming streaming platform) - we believe these data points are
useful for flagging inflection points in overall engagement trends. As can be seen in
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Exhibit 9 Steam’s peak concurrent users saw continued momentum during Q4’22.
Twitch viewership hours (Exhibit 10) continued to decline YoY, with Q4’22 declines of
-8% worse vs. Q3’22 (-2%) and total hours watched down sequentially Q/Q, as
December represented the lowest point of 2022 and declined -11% YoY.

Exhibit 9: Steam Players Exhibit 10: Twitch Viewership


mm mm, % YoY

35 2,500 140%
120%
30 2,000 100%
25 80%
1,500
20 60%
40%
15 1,000
20%
10
500 0%
5 -20%

0 - -40%

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1/1/2020

5/1/2020

7/1/2020

9/1/2020

3/1/2021

5/1/2021

9/1/2021

3/1/2022

5/1/2022

7/1/2022

9/1/2022
3/1/2020

1/1/2021

7/1/2021

1/1/2022
11/1/2020

11/1/2021
11/2/17

11/2/18

11/2/19

11/2/20

11/2/21

11/2/22
2/2/18
5/2/18
8/2/18

2/2/19
5/2/19
8/2/19

2/2/20
5/2/20
8/2/20

2/2/21
5/2/21
8/2/21

2/2/22
5/2/22
8/2/22

Players In-Game Total hours watched YoY Growth

Source: Steam, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Sully Gnome, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Mobile Gaming Data Indicates That Declines Stabilized Through Q4’22

Analyzing Trends in the Global Mobile Gaming Market


To provide a quarterly health check of mobile gaming user growth and engagement, we
leverage Sensor Tower data to track iOS & Android app downloads, users, and
engagement across major publishers and markets. We believe these data points are
useful for flagging inflection points in region-specific and overall engagement trends. The
global mobile gaming market has been under pressure for the last several quarters as
macro pressures weigh on the consumer and third party data suggesting YoY revenues
declines for every month of 2022. While the YoY declines seen in Q4’22 worsened
relative to Q3’22, trends started to improve intra-quarter as the -12% YoY declines seen
in December were better than the ~-15% YoY declines seen in Oct/Nov (Exhibit 11).

On a geographic level, Asia and LatAm have seen the most momentum in terms of
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share gains over the past several years (Exhibit 12). We use app downloads as a proxy
for market share and note that Asia has increased share from 35% in Q1’18 to 41% in
Q4’22 (and LatAm from 17% to 21%). More recently, all regions have seen YoY declines
in app downloads in Q4’22 as the mobile environment remains challenged (Exhibit 13).

Exhibit 11: Global Mobile Gaming Market Revenue YoY Growth Exhibit 12: Regional Share of App Downloads
% YoY %

50% 100%
90%
40% 80%
70%
30%
60%
50%
20%
40%
30%
10%
20%

0% 10%

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Jul-20

Nov-21
Jul-19

Nov-19

Nov-20

Jul-21

Jul-22

Nov-22
May-19

May-22
Jan-19

Mar-20
May-20
Mar-19

Jan-20

Mar-21
May-21
Jan-21

Jan-22
Mar-22
Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

0%
-10%

-20% RoW LatAm Asia Europe North America

Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: SensorTower, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 13: App Downloads by Region


in mm
App Downloads (m) Improvement (%)
4Q22 3Q22 4Q21 TTM QoQ YoY TTM
North America 880 974 1,149 1,023 -10% -23% -14%
Europe 1,873 2,011 2,425 2,119 -7% -23% -12%
Asia 3,736 4,255 4,284 4,250 -12% -13% -12%
LatAm 1,890 2,143 2,258 2,116 -12% -16% -11%
RoW 835 864 851 831 -3% -2% 0%
Source: SensorTower , Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

When examining the gaming market by genre (Exhibit 14), we note that most genres
experienced YoY declines in recent months (in line with the broader mobile
environment), with large declines in lifestyle, RPG (role-playing games), and shooter

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games (decreasing -28%, -27%, and -25% YoY in Q4’22 respectively). The 2 biggest
categories within the mobile gaming market are RPG and strategy, which have also seen
double digit declines this quarter. However, hypercasual games continue to be a
consistent bright spot, growing +10% YoY in Q4’22 (vs. +1% in Q4’21), despite the
broader weakness in casual games, and with particular strength in Bricks Ball Crusher,
Kick the Buddy and Numberzilla: Number Match Game. When segmenting the global
gaming market by category (Exhibit 15), most categories saw YoY declines (Casual -10%
YoY, Mid-Core -18% YoY, Sports & Racing -13%), while Casino games were roughly
stable (+1% YoY).

Exhibit 14: Global Gaming Market Revenue by Genre


%

100% Tabletop
90% Strategy
80%
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Sports
70% Simulation
Shooter
60%

50%
RPG
40%

30% Racing
Puzzle
20% Lifestyle
Hypercasual Geolocation
10% Casino
Arcade
0% Action
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-22
Jul-20

Jul-21
Jan-18

Nov-18

May-19

Jan-20

May-20

Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21

Nov-21
Jan-22
Jan-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Nov-22
Mar-18
May-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

May-21

Sep-21

Mar-22
May-22

Sep-22
Sep-19

Sep-20
Action Arcade Casino Geolocation Hypercasual Lifestyle Puzzle
Racing RPG Shooter Simulation Sports Strategy Tabletop

Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 15: Global Gaming Market Revenue by Category

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in $bn

$3.5

$3.0

$2.5

$2.0

$1.5

$1.0

$0.5

$0.0
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Jan-18

Apr-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Oct-22

Casino Casual Mid-core Sports & Racing

Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Implications of Ubisoft’s Recent Business Update (January 2023)


Ubisoft published a business update on January 11, where it meaningfully reduced its
outlook for FY23 bookings growth (to down more than -10% YoY from >+10% prior).
While Ubisoft attributed most of the downward revision to softness in newly-released

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Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

games outside of mobile (e.g., Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope and Just Dance 2023)
and to the push-out of Skull & Bones from FY23 into FY24, the company also pointed to
weakness in bookings from casual mobile games as a headwind.

We do not view this commentary as indicative of worsening trends for our broader
mobile coverage, as the rate of change in the overall mobile environment appears to be
stable to slightly improving sequentially (as declines appear to be stabilizing; Exhibit 11).
Instead, we believe that Ubisoft’s commentary of incremental weakness was more tied
to i) its specific mention of casual games (which have underperformed mobile overall;
Exhibit 15) and ii) the relative underperformance of the company’s portfolio against the
broader mobile market (as suggested by Sensor Tower data; Exhibit 17).

Analyzing Mobile Revenue and Downloads Across our Coverage


Video game companies in our coverage (which include Activision Blizzard, Ubisoft,
Take-Two Interactive, Electronic Arts, Roblox, Playtika, Light & Wonder (Sciplay), and
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AppLovin) increased their share of the global gaming market in recent months
(approaching 15%, as defined by Sensor Tower; Exhibit 16). Based on Sensor Tower
data, app downloads and revenue for most of the major publishers saw YoY declines in
Q4’22 , but with most seeing improving trends intra-quarter (similar to the broader
gaming market). For mobile revenue (Exhibit 17), Sensor Tower data would suggest that
Light & Wonder (Sciplay) performed best at +13% YoY, while Ubisoft performed worst at
-32% YoY. For app downloads (Exhibit 18), AppLovin saw a -57% YoY decline in Q4’22,
while Electronic Arts saw a +54% YoY increase (despite revenues indicated -11% YoY).

Exhibit 16: Select Companies Market Share of Global Gaming Exhibit 17: Worldwide Revenue Growth by Publisher
Market % YoY
% Share

15% 40%
30%
15%
20%

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14% 10%
0%
14% -10%
-20%
13%
-30%
13% -40%

12%

12% Activision Blizzard AppLovin Corp Electronic Arts


Jan-21

Jun-21
Jul-21

Jan-22

Jun-22
Jul-22
Nov-21
Dec-21

Nov-22
Dec-22
Feb-21
Mar-21

Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-21

Apr-22
Aug-21
May-21

Sep-21

Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Oct-21

May-22

Light and Wonder Playtika Roblox Corporation


Take-Two Interactive Ubisoft

Select Companies include revenue from: Activision Blizzard, Ubisoft, Take-Two Interactive, Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Electronic Arts, Roblox, Playtika, and Scientific Games International

Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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Exhibit 18: Worldwide App Downloads Growth by Publisher


% YoY

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%

Activision Blizzard AppLovin Corp Electronic Arts


Light and Wonder Playtika Roblox Corporation
Take-Two Interactive Ubisoft

Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


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Looking across our video game coverage space, we also leverage SensorTower data to
examine current-quarter trends for each publisher, looking at top-10 grossing games and
estimates of consolidated metrics across revenue growth, market share dynamics, and
engagement (i.e., time spent/MAU). It is worth noting that the data is derived from
third-party sources and might differ from official company-reported figures.

Activision Blizzard (ATVI)

n Revenue. Activision Blizzard experienced (0.2)% YoY growth in Q4, after a strong Q2
and Q3, ending the year at 7.5% YoY revenue growth in 2022.
n Share. Activision Blizzard has maintained its market share of around 4% since June
2022 which we attribute to the June release of Diablo Immortal.
n Time per user. Time spent/MAU is a mixed bag, with Candy Crush Saga, Candy
Crush Soda Saga, and CoD Mobile (Activision Blizzard’s top 3 games) continuing to
decline YoY while Pet Rescue Saga maintained healthy YoY growth rates.

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Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Exhibit 19: ATVI Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
ATVI 15.3% 7.5% -8% -1% 2% 0% 12% 5% 30% 18% 17% 7% -9% 4% 7% -0.2%
1 Candy Crush Saga 23% 17.3% -6% 9% 19% 26% 37% 33% 17% 22% 21% 13% -8% 1% 16% 2%
2 Candy Crush Soda Saga 11% -7.7% -19% -10% -6% -3% 5% -3% -10% -14% -11% -13% -13% -8% -8% -9%
3 Call of Duty®: Mobile 31% -19.9% -51% -25% -16% -27% -8% -28% -17% -46% -28% -31% -28% 17% -2% -7%
4 Hearthstone 4% -4.8% -9% -14% -33% -23% 49% 16% 40% -22% 11% 38% -53% -22% -44% -41%
5 Farm Heroes Saga 27% -26.6% -54% -7% -18% -22% -24% -23% -25% -36% -36% -39% -33% -29% -27% -30%
6 Candy Crush Friends Saga -31% -34.7% -4% -31% -27% -31% -38% -31% -32% -29% -33% -39% -42% -38% -45% -42%
7 Bubble Witch 3 Saga -22% -23.0% -1% -32% -23% -24% -20% -19% -16% -17% -19% -24% -27% -27% -27% -27%
8 Candy Crush Jelly Saga -4% -21.0% -17% -12% -16% -24% -20% -17% -14% -18% -23% -24% -28% -29% -27% -28%
9 Pet Rescue Saga -10% -19.3% -9% -20% -15% -16% -16% -24% -21% -20% -21% -16% -20% -18% -25% -21%
10 暗黑破坏神:不朽 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Market Share
ATVI 3.0% 3.6% 1% 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 3.5% 3.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0%
1 Candy Crush Saga 1.4% 1.8% 0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
2 Candy Crush Soda Saga 0.5% 0.5% 0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
3 Call of Duty®: Mobile 0.8% 0.7% 0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9%
4 Hearthstone 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
5 Farm Heroes Saga 0.2% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
6 Candy Crush Friends Saga 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Bubble Witch 3 Saga 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Candy Crush Jelly Saga 0.1% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Pet Rescue Saga 0.1% 0.0% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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10 暗黑破坏神:不朽 0.0% 0.5% 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth
1 Candy Crush Saga 5.6 5.3 -6% 6.6% 3.9% 0.6% -4.2% -8.0% -1.6% -1.9% -4.7% -10.2% -13.1% -15.3% -18.4% -15.6%
2 Candy Crush Soda Saga 6.7 6.3 -6% -6.1% -3.4% -5.0% -6.7% -11.1% -8.5% -5.6% -1.2% -6.1% -3.5% -6.1% -9.5% -6.4%
3 Call of Duty®: Mobile 8.1 7.1 -13% -9.9% -11.0% -18.2% -8.5% -19.0% -11.0% -13.9% -14.1% -18.8% -15.1% -7.7% -10.0% -11.1%
4 Hearthstone 9.2 10.3 11% 13.7% 21.3% 15.6% 18.5% 16.9% 15.3% 8.8% 18.9% 11.1% 0.5% -1.1% 1.4% 0.3%
5 Farm Heroes Saga 4.8 4.8 -1% -5.3% -1.3% -2.0% -0.7% 6.7% 4.5% 6.4% -0.8% -5.3% -3.6% 7.0% -9.9% -2.5%
6 Candy Crush Friends Saga 4.8 4.7 -2% 2.2% 3.3% -1.9% -8.7% 3.6% 0.6% -3.9% 2.6% -3.3% 0.5% -5.0% -11.5% -5.4%
7 Bubble Witch 3 Saga 4.6 4.5 -3% 8.4% 0.1% 4.3% -5.3% -5.2% -2.0% -0.9% 8.2% -6.7% -15.6% -3.7% -16.7% -12.2%
8 Candy Crush Jelly Saga 6.1 5.9 -4% 6.9% 5.9% -5.4% -12.0% -2.5% 4.5% 0.3% -0.9% -0.6% -9.8% -15.1% -16.9% -13.9%
9 Pet Rescue Saga 4.9 5.4 11% 1.5% 4.5% 7.7% 13.2% 11.7% 11.7% 19.6% 9.6% 23.0% 10.1% 16.8% -0.2% 8.6%
10 暗黑破坏神:不朽 N/A 5.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Electronic Arts (EA)

n Revenue. EA’s top mobile games are seeing negative double-digits % revenue YoY
declines in Q4’22 (with the exception of FIFA Mobile at +85% YoY in the quarter).
n Share. As a result, 2022 market share is relatively flat to slightly down on a YoY
basis.

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
n Time per user. Time Spent/MAU is seeing varying trends across the portfolio in
Q4’22 (but generally better than revenues) with a notable divergence in the top
games (some with positive YoY growth and some with deeper declines).

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Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Exhibit 20: EA Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
EA -1.1% -18.4% -17% -31% -17% -23% -29% -13% -16% -16% -23% -19% -18% -13% -3% -11%
1 Star Wars™: Galaxy of Heroes -6.3% -25.3% -19% -35% -22% -15% -23% -22% -32% -16% -32% -21% -23% -37% -26% -29%
2 Golf Clash -2.2% -24.1% -22% -22% -14% -27% -31% -25% -25% -23% -23% -22% -32% -25% -20% -26%
3 Design Home: Dream Makeover -28.6% -24.3% 4% -32% -32% -33% -38% -36% -33% -29% -20% -20% -10% -1% -8% -7%
4 FIFA Mobile: FIFA World Cup™ 3.6% 35.3% 32% -21% 38% 50% 9% 49% 23% 16% -6% 1% 0% 63% 201% 85%
5 SimCity BuildIt -8.9% -19.4% -10% -30% -26% -26% -17% -19% -22% -26% -28% -17% -10% -7% -4% -7%
6 Madden NFL 23 Mobile Football 130% -25.3% -155% -36% -1% -40% -44% -22% -18% -22% -37% -31% -17% -16% -20% -17%
7 The Sims™ FreePlay -7.6% -29.0% -21% -15% -18% -27% -42% -46% -42% -38% -19% -29% -24% -16% -33% -25%
8 Covet Fashion: Model Makeover -25.9% -23.4% 2% -33% -15% -31% -30% -21% -26% -26% -26% -23% -22% -22% -7% -17%
9 Need for Speed™ No Limits 13.6% -48.8% -62% -15% -12% -30% -50% -59% -67% -65% -63% -61% -58% -57% -48% -54%
10 Kim Kardashian: Hollywood -29.7% -44.8% -15% -34% -42% -50% -52% -47% -36% -45% -50% -53% -47% -35% -47% -43%
Market Share
EA 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3%
1 Star Wars™: Galaxy of Heroes 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
2 Golf Clash 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
3 Design Home: Dream Makeover 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
4 FIFA Mobile: FIFA World Cup™ 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
5 SimCity BuildIt 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
6 Madden NFL 23 Mobile Football 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
7 The Sims™ FreePlay 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
8 Covet Fashion: Model Makeover 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
9 Need for Speed™ No Limits 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Kim Kardashian: Hollywood 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth
1 Star Wars™: Galaxy of Heroes 11.1 10.1 -8% -2.0% -3.1% -10.1% -0.8% -3.4% -6.7% -6.6% -3.0% -14.4% -17.5% -15.8% -13.9% -15.7%
2 Golf Clash 5.9 6.3 6% -6.7% -13.5% 6.5% 7.5% 14.6% 6.3% -0.5% 36.9% 7.8% -3.6% 15.2% 2.6% 4.1%
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3 Design Home: Dream Makeover 2.5 2.9 14% 15.0% 19.3% 22.3% 15.2% 0.4% 6.9% 22.5% 19.6% 9.9% 18.8% 17.9% -0.9% 11.7%
4 FIFA Mobile: FIFA World Cup™ 5.7 5.7 0% -12.0% -9.5% -2.5% 6.1% -0.7% 5.5% -3.5% -8.9% -18.6% -0.6% 11.0% 42.1% 16.6%
5 SimCity BuildIt 4.7 4.5 -5% 4.0% 9.3% -7.2% -8.5% -11.8% -4.4% -10.6% -9.2% -2.3% -3.8% -3.1% -7.6% -4.8%
6 Madden NFL 23 Mobile Football 4.3 3.6 -15% -29.7% -16.8% -22.7% -11.6% 9.5% -15.4% -7.5% -10.5% -11.5% -10.3% -21.7% -21.4% -18.0%
7 The Sims™ FreePlay 3.4 3.4 0% 7.2% 17.0% 7.6% 1.6% 6.1% 1.6% 0.7% -0.6% -10.1% -11.8% -12.1% -6.2% -10.0%
8 Covet Fashion: Model Makeover 4.7 4.2 -12% -8.1% -8.5% -10.3% -13.2% -2.8% -5.2% -6.3% -3.0% -13.8% -20.2% -27.3% -22.3% -23.3%
9 Need for Speed™ No Limits 1.7 1.7 -1% -13.2% 7.9% 2.2% 7.1% 21.5% 2.6% 3.9% -4.9% -7.6% -3.5% -9.1% -13.6% -8.9%
10 Kim Kardashian: Hollywood 4.5 4.5 0% 13.3% 7.7% 22.7% 7.8% -4.4% -2.1% -4.2% 4.6% 1.1% -10.0% -16.5% -6.6% N/A

Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Take-Two (TTWO)

n Revenue. Take-Two continued to see negative double-digit % YoY declines during


Q4’22, but slightly better than those seen in Q3’22.
n Share. Take-Two largely maintained a stable market share on a YoY basis in 2022.
n Time per user. Time Spent/MAU is trending broadly ahead of revenues in the Q4’22
months, although most in the top 10 saw YoY declines.

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462

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Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Exhibit 21: TTWO Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
TTWO -1.1% -13.1% -12% -11% -9% -10% -14% -15% -15% -16% -15% -15% -14% -11% -14% -13%
1 Toon Blast -8.0% -20.4% -12% -7% -3% -8% -21% -17% -21% -30% -29% -33% -27% -25% -23% -25%
2 Empires & Puzzles: Match-3 RPG -6.6% -8.6% -2% -12% -7% -12% -12% -4% -7% -18% 1% -6% -20% 2% -8% -9%
3 Merge Dragons! -24.0% -6.4% 18% -22% -20% -19% -20% -20% -8% -10% -4% -2% 4% 24% 22% 16%
4 Toy Blast -1.0% -24.7% -24% -26% -19% -16% -21% -27% -28% -25% -28% -32% -26% -25% -24% -25%
5 Zynga Poker ™ - Texas Hold'em 11.3% 2.3% -9% 6% 2% 0% 0% -13% -14% 3% 2% 10% 28% 10% -7% 9%
6 CSR 2 Drag Racing Car Games -16.4% -25.3% -9% -37% -40% -27% -19% -43% -40% -21% -20% -13% -5% -16% -24% -15%
7 Wizard of Oz Slots Games 3.2% -23.7% -27% -18% -19% -21% -26% -26% -21% -27% -26% -26% -24% -23% -28% -25%
8 Harry Potter: Puzzles & Spells N/A -25.8% N/A -27% -24% -30% -28% -26% -23% -19% -25% -28% -22% -26% -32% -27%
9 Golf Rival 29.3% -11.2% -41% 3% -5% -4% -11% -14% -14% 7% -15% -10% -25% -19% -26% -24%
10 Hit it Rich! Casino Slots Game 9.5% -6.6% -16% -28% -17% -25% -25% -13% -10% 4% 2% 8% 10% 15% 1% 8%
Market Share
TTWO 2.9% 2.8% 0% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8%
1 Toon Blast 0.5% 0.4% 0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
2 Empires & Puzzles: Match-3 RPG 0.4% 0.4% 0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
3 Merge Dragons! 0.2% 0.2% 0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
4 Toy Blast 0.2% 0.2% 0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
5 Zynga Poker ™ - Texas Hold'em 0.1% 0.2% 0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
6 CSR 2 Drag Racing Car Games 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
7 Wizard of Oz Slots Games 0.1% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Harry Potter: Puzzles & Spells 0.4% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
9 Golf Rival 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
10 Hit it Rich! Casino Slots Game 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth
1 Toon Blast 7.7 8.2 6% 19.9% 14.7% 13.2% 16.5% 20.0% 6.2% -1.4% 11.4% -2.6% 3.1% -5.5% -10.5% -4.3%
2 Empires & Puzzles: Match-3 RPG 16.6 16.2 -2% -6.3% -2.3% -4.8% -4.7% 3.9% 0.8% -3.4% -1.6% -2.9% 2.1% 2.1% -7.7% -1.3%
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3 Merge Dragons! 9.4 11.7 25% 21.3% 20.7% 39.4% 42.2% 33.7% 27.8% 24.0% 41.9% 21.6% 13.9% 9.0% 13.9% 12.2%
4 Toy Blast 7.7 8.7 13% 14.9% 14.3% 13.7% 30.7% 14.2% 10.3% 18.1% 22.8% 10.1% 7.7% 10.4% -1.6% 5.3%
5 Zynga Poker ™ - Texas Hold'em 2.6 2.9 9% 6.9% 4.4% 17.1% 16.6% 26.1% 21.5% 4.2% 9.6% 10.0% 9.4% -1.1% -16.5% -3.8%
6 CSR 2 Drag Racing Car Games 3.2 2.7 -17% -17.7% -11.6% -8.5% -16.4% -25.1% -6.5% -0.4% -24.2% -19.8% -23.6% -26.9% -18.4% -22.9%
7 The Wizard of Oz Magic Match 3 5.8 5.2 -11% -13.2% -12.1% -11.3% -9.3% -8.1% -8.1% -7.6% -10.5% -13.7% -15.6% -13.2% -8.3% -12.5%
8 Harry Potter: Puzzles & Spells 7.6 8.3 8% 19.5% 19.0% 19.9% 23.3% 19.9% 11.9% 8.9% 9.7% 1.8% -2.1% -12.2% -12.2% -8.8%
9 Golf Rival 4.8 5.3 11% 16.6% 38.6% 37.7% 39.0% 19.0% -1.4% 14.9% 4.4% -11.4% -7.4% 6.4% -6.3% -2.6%
10 Hit it Rich! Casino Slots Game 9.9 9.8 0% -9.8% -9.9% -9.8% -2.3% -4.4% -6.2% 5.5% 4.2% 5.6% 4.2% 23.5% 2.1% 8.8%

Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Ubisoft (UBI)

n Revenue. Ubisoft’s mobile games are seeing YoY deep negative double-digits %
declines in the aggregate for the Q4’22 months, with weakness in some of the
company’s high-grossing games.
n Share. Market share dynamics have remained relatively stable on a YoY basis in
Q4’22.
n Time per user. Time spent/MAU is a mixed bag with particular weakness in
Growtopia and South Park in 2022 vs 2021, with some momentum in Hungry

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Dragon.

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Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Exhibit 22: UBI Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
UBI -27.2% -31.9% -5% -29% -25% -35% -35% -33% -35% -33% -29% -32% -34% -29% -32% -32%
1 Might & Magic: Era of Chaos -30% -25.6% 4% -26% -26% -32% -32% -20% -26% -15% -16% -36% -32% -21% -26% -26%
2 Hungry Shark World 4% -28.6% -32% -13% -13% -20% -15% -26% -44% -45% -34% -22% -39% -40% -32% -37%
3 Growtopia -14% -23.5% -9% -25% -5% -29% -28% -17% -15% -22% -11% -26% -28% -31% -44% -36%
4 South Park: Phone Destroyer™ -25% -41.8% -17% -32% -29% -44% -36% -43% -43% -45% -45% -49% -47% -35% -52% -45%
5 Hungry Shark Evolution -5% -20.5% -16% -13% -12% -21% -34% -28% -26% -28% -14% -7% -22% -23% -17% -21%
6 Just Dance Now -11% -40.0% -29% -43% -49% -51% -57% -51% -44% -44% -38% -30% -27% -26% -20% -24%
7 Horse Haven World Adventures -36% -52.6% -16% -59% -63% -67% -57% -64% -62% -48% -52% -42% -42% -40% -33% -39%
8 Hungry Dragon -13% -16.6% -4% -12% -12% -23% -22% -33% -32% -16% -8% -21% -15% 0% -6% -8%
9 Assassin’s Creed Rebellion -41% -17.8% 23% -32% -12% -28% -21% -25% -4% -17% -10% -8% -27% -6% -23% -19%
10 Mighty Quest For Epic Loot RPG -66% -81.6% -16% -68% -67% -70% -64% -58% -76% -76% -99% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100%
Market Share
UBI 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
1 Might & Magic: Era of Chaos 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Hungry Shark World 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Growtopia 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 South Park: Phone Destroyer™ 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Hungry Shark Evolution 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Just Dance Now 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Horse Haven World Adventures 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Hungry Dragon 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Assassin’s Creed Rebellion 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Mighty Quest For Epic Loot RPG 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth


1 Might & Magic: Era of Chaos 7.5 7.8 4% -0.1% 1.2% 1.7% 22.2% 19.7% 20.4% -1.8% -0.3% -2.9% -2.2% 0.8% -0.9% -0.8%
2 Hungry Shark World 1.0 1.1 3% 4.6% 9.8% 8.5% 8.6% -11.5% 4.1% 6.0% -7.2% -3.0% -6.1% 12.2% 12.0% 6.0%
3 Growtopia 13.3 9.3 -31% -8.4% -12.2% -1.2% -2.6% -21.4% -19.6% -37.4% -53.4% -49.0% -49.4% -47.2% -45.2% -47.4%
4 South Park: Phone Destroyer™ 4.3 3.3 -22% -24.5% -24.3% -21.9% -25.9% -21.2% -29.6% -28.3% -30.7% -32.8% 1.0% -17.3% -4.0% -7.0%
5 Hungry Shark Evolution 0.9 1.0 1% -2.1% 4.5% -2.9% 1.5% -8.0% -9.0% -4.8% 2.7% 3.8% 4.9% 15.4% 12.6% 10.8%
6 Just Dance Now 0.5 0.5 0% 5.3% -2.6% 2.8% 17.4% 7.1% 6.9% 3.0% -0.6% -2.5% -20.0% -7.4% -1.3% -9.7%
7 Horse Haven World Adventures 2.5 2.3 -8% -26.1% -26.3% -26.0% -32.1% -27.7% -7.4% 11.8% 12.7% 12.7% 13.5% 9.2% 10.1% 11.0%
8 Hungry Dragon 0.9 0.9 7% 13.4% 3.0% 13.5% -3.9% -15.4% -6.2% 10.0% 96.9% -48.5% -4.6% 21.1% 18.0% 10.8%
9 Assassin’s Creed Rebellion 2.8 2.9 3% 10.9% 7.6% 8.7% 25.7% 24.2% 24.1% -8.5% -9.4% -10.3% -9.5% -12.0% -11.4% -10.9%
10 Mighty Quest For Epic Loot RPG 1.8 1.7 -9% 1.5% -10.0% -11.8% -9.8% -5.9% -1.5% 3.1% -17.2% -17.7% -12.6% -19.3% -9.5% -13.7%

Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Roblox (RBLX)

n Revenue. Roblox saw revenue decline YoY in the negative double-digits % in Q4’22,
but sequentially better vs. the sharper YoY declines seen in Q3’22.
n Share. Market share remained largely stable on a YoY basis, with a slight uptick
towards the end of the quarter.
n Time per user. Time Spent/MAU was volatile throughout the quarter, with October

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
2022 showing nearly double digit YoY growth, which faded in November and
December.

Exhibit 23: RBLX - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
Roblox 16% -11.9% -28% -9% 4% 0% -16% -23% -23% -15% -14% -14% -8% -15% -10% -11%
Market Share
Roblox 1.5% 1.5% 0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6%
Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth
Roblox 7.8 7.6 -4% -4.8% -3.3% -1.1% -8.5% -8.3% -0.6% -1.3% -7.6% -6.0% 9.9% -5.5% -3.6% -0.1%

Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Playtika (PLTK)

n Revenue. Playtika’s mobile game revenues declined to the negative single-digit %


YoY over the Q4’22 months, but with meaningful variance across the portfolio (as
several games are seeing much better/worse trends).
n Share. Market share remained largely stable on a QoQ basis, as better-than-industry
revenue declines has led to market share gains in FY 2022.
n Time per user. Similar divergence in the Time Spent/MAU trends across the

18 January 2023 15
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

portfolio (with notable strength in some of the company’s casino games).

Exhibit 24: PLTK Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
PLTK 4.1% -4.0% -8% -1% 2% -3% -4% -8% -7% -6% -4% -4% -6% -3% -3% -4%
1 Slotomania™ Slots Machine Game -22% -16.0% 5% -24% -17% -21% -13% -19% -25% -14% -22% -15% -13% -8% -1% -7%
2 Bingo Blitz™ - BINGO games 9% 9.3% 0% -8% 17% 10% -1% -1% 0% 3% 12% 16% 24% 17% 21% 21%
3 Solitaire Grand Harvest 56% 22.3% -34% 65% 59% 24% 12% 6% 3% 8% 15% 22% 14% 20% 20% 18%
4 June's Journey: Hidden Objects 28% 27.3% -1% 57% 11% 38% 57% 24% 54% 48% 21% 14% -10% 13% -1% 0%
5 House of Fun: Casino Slot Game -3% -27.4% -24% -29% -25% -35% -35% -29% -33% -36% -27% -31% -24% -12% -13% -16%
6 WSOP Poker: Texas Holdem Game 2% -3.6% -6% 3% 8% -5% -8% -4% -7% -2% 1% -4% -6% -6% -14% -9%
7 Best Fiends - Match 3 Games 12% -8.8% -21% 12% 14% 6% -5% -8% -11% -17% -15% -19% -21% -22% -19% -21%
8 Caesars Slots: Casino games 0% -6.3% -6% 11% 7% -6% -5% -3% -6% -9% -5% -15% -11% -15% -19% -15%
9 Redecor - Home Design Game 118% -32.2% -150% -17% -18% -20% -21% -17% -21% -29% -35% -45% -48% -61% -54% -55%
10 Board Kings: Board dice games 10% -21.5% -31% -24% -16% -14% -24% -33% -17% -37% -6% -19% -33% -11% -25% -24%
Market Share
PLTK 2.1% 2.3% 0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
1 Slotomania™ Slots Machine Game 0.4% 0.4% 0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
2 Bingo Blitz™ - BINGO games 0.4% 0.5% 0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
3 Solitaire Grand Harvest 0.3% 0.3% 0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
4 June's Journey: Hidden Objects 0.2% 0.3% 0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
5 House of Fun: Casino Slot Game 0.2% 0.2% 0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
6 WSOP Poker: Texas Holdem Game 0.2% 0.2% 0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
7 Best Fiends - Match 3 Games 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
8 Caesars Slots: Casino games 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM

9 Redecor - Home Design Game 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
10 Board Kings: Board dice games 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth
1 Slotomania™ Slots Machine Game 4.5 3.8 -16% -15.1% -22.4% -16.4% -14.6% -17.1% -11.0% -21.7% -4.6% -13.2% -13.6% -11.5% -22.8% -16.3%
2 Bingo Blitz™ - BINGO games 1.8 1.8 -2% -24.7% 7.9% 4.5% -4.1% -6.0% -15.6% -13.5% -0.3% 13.4% 3.8% 26.1% -0.2% 9.4%
3 Solitaire Grand Harvest 3.8 3.4 -11% 4.1% -0.5% -16.7% -18.8% -20.5% -22.3% -12.1% -1.3% -17.0% -9.0% -4.4% -11.8% -8.5%
4 June's Journey: Hidden Objects 7.0 7.1 2% -6.7% -13.3% -12.1% -3.9% -8.0% 30.8% 27.8% 21.8% 6.1% -1.2% 9.0% 5.3% 4.3%
5 House of Fun: Casino Slot Game 2.1 2.5 20% 11.4% 15.8% 22.7% 35.2% 4.0% 23.4% 14.8% 64.7% 39.3% 16.5% 9.6% 2.6% 9.1%
6 WSOP Poker: Texas Holdem Game 2.3 2.7 17% 19.9% 30.7% 13.9% 15.5% 21.1% 38.5% 30.1% 23.7% 15.1% -1.2% 9.3% 3.8% 3.8%
7 Best Fiends - Match 3 Games 6.8 6.7 -1% 1.8% 7.5% 1.1% 6.8% 5.2% 4.2% 0.6% 0.1% -7.4% -8.0% -10.9% -10.3% -9.7%
8 Caesars Slots: Casino games 1.6 2.3 43% 41.1% 38.5% 41.6% 28.5% 29.4% 32.7% 71.3% 70.4% 75.4% 35.8% 34.2% 31.8% 33.8%
9 Redecor - Home Design Game 3.3 3.4 1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% -16.9% -0.1% -2.0% 4.0% -9.7% 3.8% 26.6% 4.5% 11.1%
10 Board Kings: Board dice games 1.9 2.7 43% 55.0% 75.6% 77.4% 72.3% 73.2% 67.1% 56.8% 41.9% 24.7% 12.4% 2.8% -5.6% 2.7%

Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

SciPlay (SCPL)

n Revenue. SciPlay’s mobile game revenues are trending higher, with positive
double-digits % YoY growth throughout Q4’22, a slight reacceleration vs. Q3’22.
n Share. This apparent revenue outperformance translated into YoY market share gains
in Q4’22 (and in FY 2022).

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
n Time per user. Similar divergence in the Time Spent/MAU trends across the
portfolio during the quarter.

18 January 2023 16
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Exhibit 25: L&W Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
L&W 3.0% 6.0% 3% -5% 3% 6% -2% -1% -3% 9% 10% 15% 6% 14% 20% 13%
1 Jackpot Party - Casino Slots 4% 7.2% 3% -8% 0% 9% -3% -4% -12% 8% 15% 23% 9% 21% 28% 19%
2 Quick Hit Slots - Casino Games 2% 38.0% 35% 15% 28% 25% 23% 34% 58% 71% 43% 42% 35% 40% 40% 38%
3 Gold Fish Casino Slot Games 23% -3.1% -26% 0% 11% 8% -1% -5% -5% -6% -9% -10% -14% -4% -2% -7%
4 88 Fortunes Slots Casino Games 3% -5.5% -9% 3% 0% 2% -1% -4% -1% -8% -6% -14% -21% -13% -4% -13%
5 Bingo Showdown - Bingo Games -12% -30.6% -19% -27% -20% -27% -36% -37% -32% -31% -32% -31% -32% -34% -28% -31%
6 MONOPOLY Slots - Casino Games -13% 4.1% 17% -24% -21% -22% -14% -11% -2% 1% 10% 31% 47% 27% 28% 33%
7 Hot Shot Casino Slots Games -25% -17.3% 8% -34% -30% -17% -28% -17% -23% -24% -12% -9% -5% -5% -2% -4%
8 Backgammon Live™ Board Game 44% 2.7% -41% -20% 8% 14% 7% 4% -5% -1% -2% -2% 7% 9% 13% 10%
9 Blazing 7s Casino: Slots Games -29% -31.0% -2% -23% -26% -19% -7% -43% -41% -42% -32% -25% -26% -44% -46% -39%
10 Live Hold’em Pro Poker -34% -23.1% 11% -37% -47% -31% -45% -47% -32% -25% -15% -28% -31% 73% -13% -5%
Market Share
L&W 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
1 Jackpot Party - Casino Slots 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
2 Quick Hit Slots - Casino Games 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
3 Gold Fish Casino Slot Games 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
4 88 Fortunes Slots Casino Games 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Bingo Showdown - Bingo Games 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 MONOPOLY Slots - Casino Games 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Hot Shot Casino Slots Games 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Backgammon Live™ Board Game 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Blazing 7s Casino: Slots Games 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Live Hold’em Pro Poker 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM

1 Jackpot Party - Casino Slots 4.8 5.1 7% 12.6% 12.5% 12.4% -1.8% -1.9% -1.2% 7.9% 8.7% 9.2% 8.6% 9.4% 9.8% 9.3%
2 Quick Hit Slots - Casino Games 3.0 3.0 -1% 14.6% 14.8% 15.4% 14.2% 14.2% 15.0% -9.6% -8.8% -9.5% -17.7% -17.3% -17.4% -17.5%
3 Gold Fish Casino Slot Games 2.9 2.9 1% 10.7% 10.0% 8.7% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% -2.5% -2.0% -3.0% -1.6% -1.1% -1.9% -1.6%
4 88 Fortunes Slots Casino Games 2.7 2.8 2% -1.6% -2.6% -2.1% 10.1% 8.3% 8.2% 2.8% 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 2.7% -1.3% 0.6%
5 Bingo Showdown - Bingo Games 4.6 4.4 -4% 2.8% 3.0% 3.3% -8.1% -5.7% -6.7% -6.4% -3.8% -5.2% -6.2% -5.2% -5.3% -5.6%
6 MONOPOLY Slots - Casino Games 0.7 0.9 40% 32.8% 32.8% 33.8% 40.4% 44.1% 45.0% 40.3% 41.9% 41.8% 42.2% 40.2% 41.2% 41.2%
7 Hot Shot Casino Slots Games 4.4 4.1 -7% -4.0% 7.1% -4.5% -1.9% -4.7% -2.5% -6.1% -10.6% -10.1% -16.1% -17.5% -11.7% -15.0%
8 Backgammon Live™ Board Game 4.6 4.5 -3% 13.5% 12.1% 12.9% 8.9% 10.3% 7.6% -17.4% -16.1% -16.3% -16.8% -17.7% -17.6% -17.3%
9 Blazing 7s Casino: Slots Games 3.9 3.3 -16% -5.5% -12.9% -20.5% -24.3% -35.6% -6.4% -12.9% 2.9% -15.8% -20.9% -20.3% -13.7% -18.3%
10 Live Hold’em Pro Poker 1.1 1.1 3% -3.9% -14.9% -9.7% -20.1% -22.7% 41.8% 42.0% 28.7% 13.8% 22.7% 0.1% 3.8% 8.2%

Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

AppLovin (APP)

n Revenue. AppLovin’s mobile game revenues are down substantially YoY, with more
pronounced weakness in the company’s top 4 mobile titles over the period.
n Share. This dynamic has led to lower market share YoY in 2022.
n Time per user. Time Spent/MAU trended down on a YoY basis for most of the top
10 mobile games.

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462

18 January 2023 17
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Exhibit 26: APP Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
APP 36.9% -26.0% -63% -21% -18% -25% -25% -29% -29% -29% -30% -30% -29% -26% -22% -26%
1 Project Makeover 999% -41.5% -1041% -42% -39% -36% -39% -45% -47% -49% -51% -46% -40% -35% -30% -35%
2 Matchington Mansion -25% -39.9% -15% -40% -35% -43% -41% -46% -42% -41% -45% -47% -40% -32% -28% -33%
3 West Game 6% -27.4% -33% -27% -19% -34% -30% -25% -32% -23% -24% -33% -27% -30% -24% -27%
4 Clockmaker: Match 3 Games! 23% -33.2% -56% -17% -22% -29% -27% -30% -32% -33% -42% -45% -44% -40% -38% -41%
5 Cash Tornado™ Slots - Casino 207% 22.5% -184% 69% 77% 40% 44% 31% 10% 0% -3% 2% -4% 1% 3% 0%
6 Wordscapes -17% 1.2% 18% 2% 6% 9% 8% 2% 2% 6% 12% -1% -10% -10% -12% -10%
7 Final Fantasy XV: A New Empire -47% -51.2% -4% -38% -38% -43% -49% -54% -51% -50% -64% -53% -60% -62% -51% -58%
8 Cooking Madness -A Chef's Game 79% 9.6% -69% 76% 70% 62% 41% -1% -5% -10% -19% -31% -28% -22% -19% -23%
9 Bingo Story – Bingo Games 37% -63.3% -100% -56% -48% -66% -65% -74% -65% -69% -62% -62% -66% -60% -67% -64%
10 Game of War - Fire Age -29% -19.0% 10% -30% -35% -44% -41% -27% -23% -21% -5% 6% 3% -5% -5% -3%
Market Share
APP 1.8% 1.5% -0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
1 Project Makeover 0.4% 0.3% -0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
2 Matchington Mansion 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
3 West Game 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
4 Clockmaker: Match 3 Games! 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
5 Cash Tornado™ Slots - Casino 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
6 Wordscapes 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
7 Final Fantasy XV: A New Empire 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
8 Cooking Madness -A Chef's Game 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
9 Bingo Story – Bingo Games 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Game of War - Fire Age 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth


1 Project Makeover 5.2 5.7 10% 18.5% 27.8% 20.5% 18.9% 17.7% 8.3% 2.5% -4.1% -1.2% 5.0% 5.8% 5.5% 5.4%
2 Matchington Mansion 6.6 6.2 -5% -4.8% -6.0% -2.9% -3.6% -5.6% 3.8% -14.3% -6.9% -6.3% -7.7% -3.6% -4.9% -5.4%
3 West Game 2.9 2.6 -8% -29.7% -12.1% -12.2% 10.4% -18.7% -8.3% 1.8% 0.2% -0.5% -2.2% -1.0% -2.3% -1.8%
4 Clockmaker: Match 3 Games! 8.7 8.6 -1% 11.8% -8.2% -4.1% 8.1% -1.9% 3.4% -7.2% 6.4% -5.0% 0.3% 0.2% -15.6% -5.5%
5 Cash Tornado™ Slots - Casino 2.9 3.7 28% 25.3% 27.2% 28.2% 38.7% 40.4% 40.1% 21.3% 22.1% 22.9% 22.8% 23.4% 22.9% 23.0%
6 Wordscapes 2.5 2.3 -11% -15.6% -10.8% -17.3% -15.4% -13.8% -12.3% -14.7% -12.6% -7.2% -1.7% -4.0% 0.8% -1.7%
7 Final Fantasy XV: A New Empire 8.1 7.1 -13% -16.6% -16.7% -16.2% -10.9% -8.6% -10.7% -10.9% -12.1% -11.4% -12.8% -10.2% -12.3% -11.8%
8 Cooking Madness -A Chef's Game 2.4 2.3 -5% 5.1% -2.3% -5.1% -5.3% -12.4% -5.7% -6.8% 0.3% 0.2% -10.2% -10.7% -9.0% -9.9%
9 Bingo Story – Bingo Games 2.9 3.0 2% 8.7% 5.2% 2.8% 0.4% -0.5% 1.5% 2.7% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 1.4% 0.1% 1.2%
10 Game of War - Fire Age 3.2 2.9 -10% -17.6% 16.3% -10.6% -12.9% -9.4% -50.0% -4.2% -7.7% -8.4% 15.1% -10.8% -8.8% -1.9%

Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462

18 January 2023 18
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Company Valuations & Key Risks

Below we highlight our updated estimates (including vs. consensus) and our
valuation/PT methodologies for each Gaming company under our coverage. We take this
opportunity to roll-forward our operating forecasts and valuation methodology ahead of
the end of those companies’ fiscal year in the weeks ahead.

Exhibit 27: Summary of Estimates & 12-Month Price Target Changes


Price Price
Current % Upside /
Ticker Company Rating Target Target Summary of Estimate Changes
Price Downside
(Old) (New)
We slightly revise our topline assumptions down to account for Apex Legends weakness which is partially offset by strength from
FIFA (with the timing of the World Cup being a contributor). In addition, we downwardly revise our assumptions around opex to
EA Electronic Arts Neutral $126 $131 $124 6%
reflect slight deleverage for R&D and S&M in FY24 as EA navigates balancing investments for the long-term with current
economic volatility.
We reflect the monthly December disclosure, which came in above expectations. However, we embed a more moderate sequential
progression into 2023 to allow for a potentially more challenging consumer spending environment and make more significant
RBLX Roblox Sell $24 $19 $37 -49%
downward revisions to our long-term forecasts as we model slower user growth in the UCAN, which is RBLX’s most mature and
highly monetized region.
We slightly revise our topline assumptions down to account for Grand Theft Auto weakness during the quarter. In addition, we
downwardly revise our assumptions around gross margin (as FY24 will have a full year of contribution from the Zynga acquisition
TTWO Take-Two Interactive Buy $150 $155 $105 48%
which has a lower margin profile) as well as higher opex assumptions as TTWO navigates balancing investments for the long-term
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with current economic volatility.


We modestly revise our apps revenue upward in Q4'22 to reflect better than expected app revenue data. These slight upward
revisions were offset by lower software revenue given continued IDFA headwinds and the economic downturn weighing on
APP AppLovin Buy $33 $21 $11 93%
AppLovin's end demand market. Given the revenue mix shift, we lower our operating margins to reflect a bigger percentage of
revenue coming from apps which has an inherently lower margin profile.

We slightly lower Playtika's in-app revenues (mainly through lower daily paying user assumptions) as IDFA continues to be an
PLTK Playtika Neutral $15 $15 $9.80 53% overhang on mobile revenues as well as weaker consumer spend in an economic downturn. In addition, we slightly increase our
assumptions for R&D as management navigates balancing long-term investments against current economic volatility.

We reflect Ubisoft's meaningfully reduced outlook for bookings growth and non-IFRS operating income, which the company
introduced on January 11. We now model FY23 bookings decline of (11)% YoY (from prior 10%) reflecting recent Q3 titles' (Mario
UBI Ubisoft Neutral € 37 € 22 € 20 10%
and Just Dance) underperformance, softness in mobile, and delay of Skull & Bones. In addition, we lower our non-IFRS EBIT
to €(506)mm to reflect lower bookings base as well as €500mm amortization impact.

SCPL Sciplay Buy $20 $22 $15.98 38% We make no changes to our operating assumptions for SCPL.

Pricing as of 01/17/23 close

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Electronic Arts (EA) - Maintain Neutral Rating; Increase PT to $131 (from $126)
We slightly revise our topline assumptions down to account for Apex Legends
weakness which is partially offset by strength from FIFA (with the timing of the World
Cup being a contributor). In addition, we downwardly revise our assumptions around

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
opex to reflect slight deleverage for R&D and S&M in FY24 as EA navigates balancing
investments for the long-term with current economic volatility.

Exhibit 28: EA Estimate Changes: FQ3’23, FY23, FY24 & FY25


$mm, except per share data
3FQ23 2023 2024 2025

Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
Net Revenues $ 1,915 $ 1,870 -2% $ 7,691 $ 7,616 -1% $ 8,049 $ 7,995 -1% $ 8,556 $ 8,503 -1%
Net Bookings $ 2,515 $ 2,470 -2% $ 7,793 $ 7,718 -1% $ 8,151 $ 8,097 -1% $ 8,658 $ 8,605 -1%
Non-GAAP Gross Profit $ 1,955 $ 1,920 -2% $ 6,035 $ 5,977 -1% $ 6,332 $ 6,278 -1% $ 6,749 $ 6,681 -1%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin 77.8% 77.8% 0bps 77.4% 77.4% 0bps 77.7% 77.5% -15bps 77.9% 77.6% -30bps
Non-GAAP EBIT $ 1,036 $ 1,017 -2% $ 2,457 $ 2,429 -1% $ 2,652 $ 2,514 -5% $ 2,876 $ 2,718 -5%
Non-GAAP EBIT Margin 41.2% 41.2% 0bps 31.5% 31.5% -7bps 32.5% 31.1% -149bps 33.2% 31.6% -163bps
FCF $ 1,671 $ 1,658 -1% $ 1,407 $ 1,392 -1% $ 1,831 $ 1,752 -4% $ 1,947 $ 1,860 -4%
Non-GAAP EPS $ 2.99 $ 2.94 -2% $ 7.03 $ 6.96 -1% $ 7.68 $ 7.30 -5% $ 8.47 $ 8.03 -5%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

18 January 2023 19
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Exhibit 29: EA - GS Estimates vs. Consensus


$mm, except per share data
3FQ23 FY2023 FY2024
% GS vs. % GS vs. % GS vs.
GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons
Net Revenues $ 1,870 $ 1,894 -1% $ 7,616 $ 7,659 -1% $ 7,995 $ 8,271 -3%
Net Bookings $ 2,470 $ 2,475 0% $ 7,718 $ 7,763 -1% $ 8,097 $ 8,269 -2%
Non-GAAP Gross Profit $ 1,920 $ 1,909 1% $ 5,977 $ 6,026 -1% $ 6,278 $ 6,401 -2%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin 77.8% 77.1% 63bps 77.4% 77.6% -19bps 77.5% 77.4% 13bps
Non-GAAP EBIT $ 1,017 $ 1,052 -3% $ 2,429 $ 2,482 -2% $ 2,514 $ 2,696 -7%
Non-GAAP EBIT Margin 41.2% 42.5% -131bps 31.5% 32.0% -51bps 31.1% 32.6% -154bps
FCF $ 1,658 $ 1,034 60% $ 1,392 $ 1,439 -3% $ 1,752 $ 1,907 -8%
Non-GAAP EPS $ 2.94 $ 3.04 -3% $ 6.96 $ 7.14 -3% $ 7.30 $ 7.88 -7%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet

Our $131 12-month PT (from $126) is based on a blended fundamental (85%


weight)/M&A (15% weight) valuation methodology. Specifically:

n Fundamental: 25x EV/FCF-SBC multiple (unchanged) applied to our FY25 (from


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FY24) FCF-SBC estimate.


n M&A: 19x EV/Adj. EBITDA (unchanged) to our FY25 (from FY24) estimates,
consistent with recent video game transactions.

Exhibit 30: EA 12m Valuation Analysis


$mm, except per share data
Scenario Analysis
Downside Base Upside
Fundamental Valuation $ 86 $ 119 $ 164
% upside/downside -31% -5% 31%
FCF-SBC (FY24E) $ 999 $ 1,161 $ 1,279
Margin 12.5% 14.5% 16.0%
FCF-SBC (FY25E) $ 1,105 $ 1,245 $ 1,446
Margin 13.0% 14.6% 17.0%
EV / 2025 FCF-SBC 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
FCF-SBC CAGR ('23-'25) 16% 23% 33%
EV / FCF-SBC to Growth 1.25x 1.08x 0.92x
Enterprise Value $ 22,108 $ 31,115 $ 43,366
Implied ratios:

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
EV/2025 FCF 11.9x 16.7x 23.3x
P/2025 EPS 10.7x 14.8x 20.4x
Capital Structure Adjustments
Adjusted Net Debt - 2024E $ (1,180) $ (1,180) $ (1,180)
Shares Outstanding - 2024E 271.8 271.8 271.8

M&A Valuation
Adj. EBITDA (FY25) $ 2,866
Adj. EBITDA Margin 33.3%
Target multiple 19.0x
Enterprise Value $ 54,459
Less net debt $ (1,180)
Equity Value $ 53,279
Shares 271.8
M&A Value $ 196
Implied ratios:
EV/2025 FCF 29.3x
P/2025 EPS 24.4x

Weightings
Fundamental 100% 85% 100%
M&A 0% 15% 0%

12 month PT $ 86 $ 131 $ 164


% upside/downside -31% 4% 31%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Key Risks: Higher or lower unit and live services estimates for both its annualized (i.e.,
FIFA, Madden) and non-annualized titles (i.e., Battlefield); Continued integration

18 January 2023 20
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

struggles with recent acquisitions (i.e., Glu); Heightened government regulation (esp.
around loot boxes and other micro transactions); Greater or lower receptivity to new
games than what’s currently priced in; Potential loss of licensing agreements for key IP
(e.g., Madden, FIFA); Increased competition in both the console and mobile market as
tools for development become more commoditized.

Roblox (RBLX) - Maintain Sell Rating; Lower PT to $19 (from $24)


We reflect the company’s latest monthly disclosure of revenue and user growth, which
broadly came in above expectations for the month of December. We also embed a more
moderate sequential progression into 2023, to allow for a potentially more challenging
consumer spending environment. We make more significant downward revisions to our
long-term forecasts (into 2026-2027) as we model slower user growth in the US and
Canada (UCAN), which is RBLX’s most mature and highly monetized region (3-7x vs.
other regions) with this adjustment causing an outsized impact on Bookings. We expect
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this lower revenue trajectory to also impact margins, as elements of fixed cost growth
cause operating deleverage and as the company signaled its intention to continue
investing towards growth despite a more volatile environment (across e.g., headcount
and CapEx).

Exhibit 31: RBLX Estimate Changes: Q4’22, 2022, 2023 and 2024
$mm, except per share data
Q4 2022 2022 2023 2024

Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
GAAP Revenue $ 683 $ 571 -16% $ 2,329 $ 2,217 -5% $ 2,773 $ 2,637 -5% $ 3,319 $ 3,006 -9%
Total Bookings $ 849 $ 890 5% $ 2,822 $ 2,863 1% $ 3,446 $ 3,276 -5% $ 4,129 $ 3,738 -9%
DAUs 61 59 -3% 56 56 -1% 66 63 -3% 77 71 -8%
Bookings per DAU $ 14.00 $ 15.07 8% $ 50.00 $ 51.09 2% $ 51.75 $ 51.60 0% $ 53.56 $ 52.87 -1%
Adj. Gross Profit $ 654 $ 686 5% $ 2,173 $ 2,204 1% $ 2,670 $ 2,539 -5% $ 3,201 $ 2,898 -9%
Gross Margin 77.0% 77.0% 0% 77.0% 77.0% 0% 77.5% 77.5% 0% 77.5% 77.5% 0%
FCF $ 43 $ 30 -31% $ 23 $ 10 -58% $ 106 $ 43 -59% $ 398 $ 246 -38%
Adj. EBITDA $ 104 $ 104 0% $ 277 $ 278 0% $ 337 $ 288 -15% $ 523 $ 377 -28%
Adj EBITDA Margin 12.2% 11.7% -4% 9.8% 9.7% -1% 9.8% 8.8% -10% 12.7% 10.1% -20%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Exhibit 32: RBLX - GS Estimates vs. Consensus
$mm, except per share data
Q4 '22 2023 2024
% GS vs. % GS vs. % GS vs.
GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons
GAAP Revenue $ 571 $ 661 -14% $ 2,637 $ 2,664 -1% $ 3,006 $ 3,074 -2%
Total Bookings $ 890 $ 862 3% $ 3,276 $ 3,292 0% $ 3,738 $ 3,807 -2%
DAUs 59 n/a n/a 63 n/a n/a 71 n/a n/a
Bookings per DAU $ 15.07 n/a n/a $ 51.60 n/a n/a $ 52.87 n/a n/a
Adj. Gross Profit $ 686 $ 656 4% $ 2,539 $ 2,539 0% $ 2,898 $ 2,961 -2%
Gross Margin 77.0% 76.2% 1% 77.5% 77.1% 0% 77.5% 77.8% 0%
FCF $ 30 $ 13 133% $ 43 $ (6) n/a $ 246 $ 206 20%
Adj. EBITDA $ 104 $ 90 16% $ 288 $ 242 19% $ 377 $ 357 5%
Adj EBITDA Margin 11.7% 10.5% 12% 8.8% 7.3% 20% 10.1% 9.4% 7%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet

Our 12-month $19 PT (from $24) is based on an equal-blend of: (1) EV/Bookings applied
to our 2024 (from 2023) estimates and; (2) a modified DCF using an EV/FCF-SBC
multiple applied to our 2027 (from 2026) estimates discounted back 3 years.

n 5.0x EV/Bookings (unchanged) or 0.35x EV/Bookings-to-growth applied to our 2024

18 January 2023 21
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

estimates.
n 40.0x EV/FCF-SBC multiple (unchanged) applied to our 2027 estimates discounted
back 3 years at 12%. The discount rate represents CAPM using the blended average
of companies within our coverage universe consisting of: (1) 3% risk free rate
(based on the normalized 10-year rate); (2) average beta of ~1.3; (3) equity risk
premium of 7%.

Exhibit 33: RBLX 12m Valuation Analysis


$mm, except per share data
Scenario Analysis
Downside Base Upside
Valuation $ 9 $ 19 $ 32
% upside/downside -76% -49% -15%
Bookings (FY23E) $ 2,949 $ 3,276 $ 3,604
Downside/Upside Adjustment -10% - 10%
Bookings (FY24E) $ 3,289 $ 3,738 $ 4,186
Downside/Upside Adjustment -12% - 12%
EV / 2024 Bookings 2.0x 5.0x 7.5x
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Bookings CAGR ('22-'24) 7% 14% 21%


EV / Sales to Growth 0.28x 0.35x 0.36x
Enterprise Value $ 6,578 $ 18,688 $ 31,395
FCF-SBC (FY27E) $ 79 $ 125 $ 197
FCF-SBC Margin % 2.0% 3.2% 5.0%
FCF-SBC CAGR ('24-'27) -159% -169% -180%
FCF-SBC to Growth -0.19x -0.24x -0.33x
EV / 2027 FCF-SBC 30.0x 40.0x 60.0x
Discount Rate 15.0% 12.0% 10.0%
Discount Period (Years) 3 3 3
Enterprise Value (2026) $ 2,368 $ 4,986 $ 11,841
Discounted Enterprise Value (2023) $ 1,557 $ 3,549 $ 8,897
Weighting
EV derived from Bookings 50% 50% 50%
EV derived from FCF-SBC 50% 50% 50%
Enterprise Value $ 4,068 $ 11,118 $ 20,146
Capital Structure Adjustments
Adjusted Net Debt - 2023E $ (2,106) $ (2,106) $ (2,106)
Shares Outstanding - 2023E 704 704 704

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Key Risks: higher than expected engagement and monetization on the platform;

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
potentially higher ARPDAU as a result of Roblox paying out more to developers and
attracting developers at a higher clip with more of them focusing on older demographic;
& greater than expected operating leverage on R&D and spend on trust and safety
driving higher EBITDA margins.

Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) - Maintain Buy Rating; Increase PT to $155 (from
$150)
We slightly revise our topline assumptions down to account for Grand Theft Auto
weakness during the quarter. In addition, we downwardly revise our assumptions
around gross margin (as FY24 will have a full year of contribution from the Zynga
acquisition which has a lower margin profile) as well as higher opex assumptions as
TTWO navigates balancing investments for the long-term with current economic
volatility.

18 January 2023 22
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Exhibit 34: TTWO Estimate Changes: FQ3’23, FY23, FY24 and FY25
$mm, except per share data
3FQ23 2023 2024 2025

Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
Net Bookings $ 1,454 $ 1,438 -1% $ 5,489 $ 5,419 -1% $ 7,100 $ 6,926 -2% $ 8,380 $ 8,204 -2%
Non-GAAP Gross Profit $ 926 $ 915 -1% $ 3,508 $ 3,465 -1% $ 4,544 $ 4,357 -4% $ 5,163 $ 5,046 -2%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin 63.7% 63.7% 0% 63.9% 63.9% 0% 64.0% 62.9% -2% 61.6% 61.5% 0%
Non-GAAP EBIT $ 212 $ 210 -1% $ 912 $ 900 -1% $ 1,555 $ 1,185 -24% $ 2,033 $ 1,742 -14%
Non-GAAP EBIT Margin 14.6% 14.6% 0% 16.6% 16.6% 0% 21.9% 17.1% -22% 24.3% 21.2% -12%
Adj. EBITDA $ 234 $ 231 -1% $ 974 $ 962 -1% $ 1,648 $ 1,286 -22% $ 2,130 $ 1,850 -13%
Adj. EBITDA Margin 16.1% 16.1% 0% 17.7% 17.8% 0% 23.2% 18.6% -20% 25.4% 22.5% -11%
FCF $ 330 $ 329 0% $ 501 $ 499 0% $ 1,268 $ 802 -37% $ 1,622 $ 1,292 -20%
Non-GAAP EPS $ 0.88 $ 0.87 -1% $ 4.06 $ 4.00 -1% $ 6.99 $ 5.21 -25% $ 9.37 $ 7.99 -15%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 35: TTWO - GS Estimates vs. Consensus


$mm, except per share data
3FQ23 FY2023 FY2024
% GS vs. % GS vs. % GS vs.
GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM

Net Bookings $ 1,438 $ 1,469 -2% $ 5,419 $ 5,488 -1% $ 6,926 $ 6,952 0%
Non-GAAP Gross Profit $ 915 $ 944 -3% $ 3,465 $ 3,500 -1% $ 4,357 $ 4,506 -3%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin 63.7% 64.2% -1% 63.9% 63.8% 0% 62.9% 64.8% -3%
Non-GAAP EBIT $ 210 $ 224 -6% $ 900 $ 909 -1% $ 1,185 $ 1,532 -23%
Non-GAAP EBIT Margin 14.6% 15.2% -4% 16.6% 16.6% 0% 17.1% 22.0% -22%
Adj. EBITDA $ 231 $ 246 -6% $ 962 $ 986 -2% $ 1,286 $ 1,501 -14%
Adj. EBITDA Margin 16.1% 16.7% -4% 17.8% 18.0% -1% 18.6% 21.6% -14%
FCF $ 329 $ 347 -5% $ 499 $ 520 -4% $ 802 $ 905 -11%
Non-GAAP EPS $ 0.87 $ 0.90 -3% $ 4.00 $ 3.99 0% $ 5.21 $ 6.42 -19%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet, Visible Alpha Consensus Data

Our $155 12-month target price (from $150) is based on a 30x EV/FCF-SBC multiple
(unchanged) applied to our FY25 (from FY24) estimates.

Exhibit 36: TTWO 12m Valuation Analysis


$mm, except per share data
Scenario Analysis
Downside Base Upside

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Valuation $ 69 $ 155 $ 198
% upside/downside -34% 48% 89%
FCF-SBC (FY24E) $ 138 $ 444 $ 381
Margin 2.0% 6.4% 5.5%
FCF-SBC (FY25E) $ 638 $ 918 $ 997
Margin 8.0% 11.5% 12.5%
EV / 2025 FCF-SBC 20.0x 30.0x 35.0x
FCF-SBC CAGR ('23-'25) 87% 124% 133%
EV / FCF-SBC to Growth 0.23x 0.24x 0.26x
Enterprise Value $ 12,762 $ 27,529 $ 34,897
Implied ratios:
EV/2025 FCF 9.9x 21.3x 27.0x
P/2025 EPS 8.6x 19.4x 24.8x
Capital Structure Adjustments
Adjusted Net Debt - 2024E $ 904 $ 904 $ 904
Shares Outstanding - 2024E 171 171 171

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Key Risks: Engagement and user growth; Lower units and live services sales for key
titles and lower receptivity to new games; slower than expected growth in the newly
expanded mobile segment; Slower integration with recent acquisitions (namely, Zynga)
and possible game release delays &/or core franchise decay; potential loss of licensing
agreements for key IP & heightened government regulation; Increased competition in
the console and mobile markets; Current macroeconomic headwinds sustain and/or are

18 January 2023 23
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

more severe than expected; TTWO is also exposed to the volatility caused by investors’
risk appetite for growth stocks.

AppLovin (APP) - Maintain Buy Rating; Lower PT to $21 (from $33)


We modestly revise our apps revenue in Q4 to reflect (30)% YoY declines from prior
(35)% YoY declines given better than expected app revenue data. These slight upward
revisions were offset by lower software revenue given continued IDFA headwinds and
the economic downturn weighing on AppLovin’s end demand market. Given the revenue
mix shift, we lower our operating margins to reflect a bigger percentage of revenue
coming from apps which has an inherently lower margin profile.

Exhibit 37: APP Estimate Changes: Q4’22, 2022, 2023 and 2024
$mm, except per share data
Q4 2022 2022 2023 2024

Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
Total Revenue $ 688 $ 687 0% $ 2,802 $ 2,801 0% $ 2,806 $ 2,805 0% $ 3,222 $ 3,146 -2%
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM

Software Revenue $ 332 $ 304 -8% $ 1,075 $ 1,047 -3% $ 1,369 $ 1,338 -2% $ 1,727 $ 1,613 -7%
Enterprise Client 573 563 -2% 573 563 -2% 613 603 -2% 653 643 -2%
Revenue per SPEC $ 1,895 $ 1,879 -1% $ 1,895 $ 1,879 -1% $ 1,990 $ 1,973 -1% $ 2,388 $ 2,249 -6%
Apps Revenue $ 355 $ 383 8% $ 1,727 $ 1,755 2% $ 1,438 $ 1,466 2% $ 1,495 $ 1,532 2%
Non-GAAP Gross Profit $ 532 $ 531 0% $ 2,129 $ 2,111 -1% $ 2,172 $ 2,153 -1% $ 2,526 $ 2,446 -3%
Gross Margin 77.3% 77.3% 0bps 76.0% 75.4% -61bps 77.4% 76.8% -63bps 78.4% 77.8% -65bps
Adj. EBITDA $ 246 $ 254 3% $ 1,050 $ 1,057 1% $ 1,134 $ 1,100 -3% $ 1,426 $ 1,327 -7%
Adj EBITDA Margin 35.8% 37.0% 114bps 37.5% 37.7% 28bps 40.4% 39.2% -118bps 44.3% 42.2% -209bps

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 38: APP - GS Estimates vs. Consensus


$mm, except per share data
Q4 '22 2023 2024
% GS vs. % GS vs. % GS vs.
GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons
Total Revenue $ 687 $ 692 -1% $ 2,805 $ 2,802 0% $ 3,146 $ 3,131 0%
Software Revenue $ 304 $ 310 -2% $ 1,338 $ 1,353 -1% $ 1,613 $ 1,566 3%
Enterprise Client 563 n/a n/a 603 n/a n/a 643 n/a n/a
Revenue per SPEC $ 1,879 n/a n/a $ 1,973 n/a n/a $ 2,249 n/a n/a
Apps Revenue $ 383 $ 381 0% $ 1,466 $ 1,450 1% $ 1,532 $ 1,565 -2%
Non-GAAP Gross Profit $ 531 $ 533 0% $ 2,153 $ 2,214 -3% $ 2,446 $ 2,491 -2%
Gross Margin 77.3% 77.1% 0% 76.8% 79.0% -3% 77.8% 79.5% -2%

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Adj. EBITDA $ 254 $ 259 -2% $ 1,100 $ 1,073 3% $ 1,327 $ 1,222 9%
Adj EBITDA Margin 37.0% 37.5% -1% 39.2% 38.3% 2% 42.2% 39.0% 8%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet

Our $21 12-month price target (from $33 prior) is based on an equal blend of (1)
EV/Sales applied to our 2024 estimates (from 2023) and (2) a modified DCF using
EV/GAAP EBITDA multiple applied to our 2027 estimates (from 2026) discounted back 3
years. Specifically:

n 2.5x EV/Sales (from 5.0x) applied to our updated 2024 estimates. Our use of 2.5x
EV/Sales multiple compares to its comp set 5-year historical +/- 1 std dev. trading
range of 1.2-5.4x. We modestly lower our EV/sales multiple to slightly below the
midpoint of the range given increased concern around AppLovin’s growth trajectory
into 2023 as the broader macro environment and IDFA headwinds weigh on
AppLovin’s end demand market.
n 10x EV/GAAP EBITDA (from 12.0x) applied to our 2027 estimates discounted back 3
years at 12%. We downwardly revise the multiple given the macro environment and
IDFA headwinds weighing on AppLovin’s end demand market. Our use of a lower
multiple is also applied to modestly lower forward operating assumptions in

18 January 2023 24
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

out-years. The discount rate represents CAPM using the blended average of
companies within our coverage universe consisting of: (1) 3% risk free rate (based
on the normalized 10-year rate); (2) average beta of ~1.3; (3) equity risk premium of
7%.

Exhibit 39: APP 12m Valuation Analysis


$mm, except per share data
Scenario Analysis
Downside Base Upside
Valuation $ 8 $ 21 $ 38
% upside/downside -27% 91% 245%
Sales (FY23E) $ 2,524 $ 2,805 $ 3,085
Downside/Upside Adjustment -10% - 10%
Sales (FY24E) $ 2,768 $ 3,146 $ 3,523
Downside/Upside Adjustment -12% - 12%
EV / 2024 Sales 1.5x 2.5x 4.0x
Sales CAGR ('22-'24) -1% 6% 12%
EV / Sales to Growth -2.54x 0.42x 0.33x
Enterprise Value $ 4,153 $ 7,865 $ 14,094
GAAP EBITDA (FY27E) $ 1,588 $ 1,720 $ 1,776
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM

GAAP EBITDA Margin % 38% 41.2% 43%


GAAP EBITDA CAGR ('24-'27) 12% 15% 16%
EBITDA to Growth 0.41x 0.66x 0.91x
EV / 2027 GAAP EBITDA 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x
Discount Rate 15.0% 12.0% 10.0%
Discount Period (Years) 3 3 3
Enterprise Value (2026) $ 7,941 $ 17,205 $ 26,645
Discounted Enterprise Value (2023) $ 5,221 $ 12,246 $ 20,018
Weighting
EV derived from Sales 50% 50% 50%
EV derived from GAAP EBITDA 50% 50% 50%
Enterprise Value $ 4,687 $ 10,055 $ 17,056
Capital Structure Adjustments
Adjusted Net Debt - 2023E $ 1,440 $ 1,440 $ 1,440
Shares Outstanding - 2023E 407.7 407.7 407.7

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Key Risks: Changes to data privacy and regulation impacting effectiveness of ad tech
solutions; any changes to technical requirements or policies governing the Apple App
Store or Google Play Store; competitors have significant resources with well-established
brands (i.e., Facebook Audience Network, etc.); & Apple’s Private Relay service might

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
cause incremental headwinds with more stringent rules as it relates to on devise
fingerprinting.

Playtika (PLTK) - Maintain Neutral Rating; Maintain PT of $15


We slightly lower Playtika’s in-app revenues (mainly through lower daily paying user
assumptions) as IDFA continues to be an overhang on mobile revenues as well as
weaker consumer spend in an economic downturn. In addition, we slightly increase our
assumptions for R&D as management navigates balancing long-term investments
against current economic volatility.

18 January 2023 25
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Exhibit 40: PLTK Estimate Changes: Q4’22, 2022, 2023 and 2024
$mm, except per share data
Q4 2022 2022 2023 2024

Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
Total Revenue $ 634 $ 624 -2% $ 2,619 $ 2,608 0% $ 2,766 $ 2,661 -4% $ 2,922 $ 2,822 -3%
In-App Purchases $ 615 $ 605 -2% $ 2,542 $ 2,531 0% $ 2,687 $ 2,585 -4% $ 2,840 $ 2,742 -3%
DPUs (000s) 315 310 -2% 315 313 0% 329 316 -4% 346 332 -4%
DPUs (mm) 8.9 8.6 -3% 9 9 -1% 9 8 -7% 9 8 -7%
Conversion rate 3.6% 3.6% 1% 3.3% 3.3% 0% 3.8% 3.9% 3% 4.0% 4.1% 4%
Revenue per DPU $ 21 $ 21 0% $ 22 $ 22 0% $ 22 $ 22 0% $ 23 $ 23 0%
Advertising Revenue $ 19 $ 19 -1% $ 77 $ 77 0% $ 79 $ 76 -4% $ 81 $ 80 -2%
GAAP Gross Profit $ 456 $ 449 -2% $ 1,886 $ 1,878 0% $ 1,995 $ 1,919 -4% $ 2,110 $ 2,037 -3%
Gross Margin 72% 72% 0% 72% 72% 0% 72% 72% 0% 72% 72% 0%
GAAP Operating Income $ 114 $ 112 -2% $ 457 $ 455 0% $ 531 $ 501 -6% $ 612 $ 576 -6%
Operating Margin 18% 18% 0% 17% 17% 0% 19% 19% -2% 21% 20% -3%
ADJ. EBITDA $ 217 $ 214 -1% $ 907 $ 904 0% $ 961 $ 933 -3% $ 1,045 $ 1,027 -2%
Adj. EBITDA Margin 34% 34% 0% 35% 35% 0% 35% 35% 1% 36% 36% 2%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 41: PLTK - GS Estimates vs. Consensus


$mm, except per share data
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM

Q4 '22 2023 2024


% GS vs. % GS vs. % GS vs.
GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons
Total Revenue $ 624 $ 628 -1% $ 2,661 $ 2,654 0% $ 2,822 $ 2,823 0%
In-App Purchases $ 605 n/a n/a $ 2,585 n/a n/a $ 2,742 n/a n/a
DPUs 310 n/a n/a 316 n/a n/a 332 n/a n/a
DAUs 9 n/a n/a 8 n/a n/a 8 n/a n/a
Conversion rate 3.6% n/a n/a 3.9% n/a n/a 4.1% n/a n/a
Revenue per DPU $ 21 n/a n/a $ 22 n/a n/a $ 23 n/a n/a
Advertising Revenue $ 19 n/a n/a $ 76 n/a n/a $ 80 n/a n/a
GAAP Gross Profit $ 449 $ 453 -1% $ 1,919 $ 1,915 0% $ 2,037 $ 2,037 0%
Gross Margin 71.9% 72.2% 0% 72.1% 72.2% 0% 72.2% 72.2% 0%
Operating Income $ 112 $ 114 -2% $ 501 $ 500 0% $ 576 $ 553 4%
Operating Margin 17.9% 18.2% -1% 18.8% 18.8% 0% 20.4% 19.6% 4%
Adj. EBITDA $ 214 $ 220 -3% $ 933 $ 950 -2% $ 1,027 $ 1,033 -1%
Adj. EBITDA Margin 34.3% 35.0% -2% 35.1% 35.8% -2% 36.4% 36.6% 0%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet

Our $15, 12-month PT (unchanged) is based on a blended fundamental (85%


weight)/M&A (15% weight) valuation methodology.

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
n Fundamental: 17.0x EV/FCF-SBC multiple (from 22.5x) applied to our FY24 (from
FY23) FCF-SBC estimate. We lower our EV/FCF-SBC multiple to 17x which implies
12x EV/FCF (compared to its comp set historical trading range of 12-20x) to reflect
continued IDFA pressure and weaker consumer spend.
n M&A: 2.5x EV/Revenue multiple (from 3.5x) applied to our FY24 (from FY23)
estimates. We lower the absolute EV/Revenue multiple to reflect the midpoint of
smaller and private mobile gaming studios transactions in the ~2-3x EV/sales range,
as the gap between public and private valuations starts to narrow.

18 January 2023 26
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Exhibit 42: PLTK 12m Valuation Analysis


$mm, except per share data
Scenario Analysis
Downside Base Upside
Valuation $ 7 $ 14 $ 21
% upside/downside -22% 49% 122%
FCF-SBC (FY23E) $ 266 $ 303 $ 333
Margin 10.0% 11.4% 12.5%
FCF-SBC (FY24E) $ 339 $ 392 $ 423
Margin 12.0% 13.9% 15.0%
EV / 2024 FCF-SBC 12.0x 17.0x 22.0x
FCF-SBC CAGR ('22-'24) 33% 43% 49%
EV / FCF-SBC to Growth 0.36x 0.39x 0.45x
Enterprise Value $ 4,063 $ 6,662 $ 9,311
Implied ratios:
EV/2024 FCF 7.4x 12.2x 17.1x
P/2024 EPS 6.8x 13.1x 19.5x
Capital Structure Adjustments
Adjusted Net Debt - 2023E $ 1,230 $ 1,230 $ 1,230
Shares Outstanding - 2023E 377.9 377.9 377.9

M&A Valuation
Valuation $ 15
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM

% upside/downside 60%
Revenue (FY24) $ 2,822
Adjustment -
Target multiple 2.5x
Revenue CAGR ('22-'24) 4%
EV/Sales-to-growth 0.62x
Enterprise Value $ 7,054

Weightings
Fundamental 100% 85% 100%
M&A 0% 15% 0%

12 month PT $ 7 $ 15 $ 21
% upside/downside -27% 56% 118%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Key Risks: Game launches, as Playtika has a limited track record of launching new
games which could indicate a greater level of execution risk, which could create
meaningful upside or downside to our current operating estimates; User acquisition
costs, as Apple’s changes to IDFA has resulted in limited visibility in mobile game

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
publishers’ ability to target high lifetime value users, and a improvement/worsening in
those headwinds would be a source of upside/downside; Competition, as new forms of
entertainment become available and as AAA publishers continue to release mobile
versions of key IP, but with potential upside should competitive intensity decline;
Ownership structure, which could result in heightened regulatory scrutiny, particularly
for future acquisitions or investments in U.S. businesses.

Ubisoft (UBI) - Maintain Neutral Rating; Lower PT to €22 (from €37)


Ubisoft published a business update on January 11 where it meaningfully reduced its
outlook for FY23 bookings growth (to down more than -10% YoY from >+10% prior) as
well as non-IFRS operating income (to €(500)mm from €400mm). We now model FY23
bookings decline of (11)% YoY (from prior 10%) reflecting the underperformance of
recent FQ3 titles (Mario and Just Dance), softness in mobile, and delay of Skull &
Bones. In addition, we lower our non-IFRS EBIT to €(506)mm to reflect lower bookings
base as well as €500mm amortization impact from upcoming premium and free-to-play
games and newly canceled titles.

18 January 2023 27
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Exhibit 43: UBI Estimate Changes: 2H23, FY23, FY24, & FY25
€mm, except per share data
2H23E 2023 2024 2025
Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
Net Bookings (Non-IFRS) € 1,644 € 1,194 -27% € 2,344 € 1,893 -19% € 2,645 € 2,082 -21% € 2,821 € 2,223 -21%
Non-IFRS GP € 1,446 € 1,042 -28% € 2,064 € 1,660 -20% € 2,320 € 1,831 -21% € 2,466 € 1,958 -21%
Gross Margin 88% 86.8% -83bps 88.0% 87.6% -42bps 87.7% 87.9% 21bps 87.4% 88.1% 66bps
Non-IFRS EBIT € 542 (€ 367) n.a € 403 (€ 506) n.a € 546 € 369 -32% € 599 € 414 -31%
Non-IFRS EBIT Margin 32.9% -30.8% -6372bps 17.2% -26.7% -4393bps 20.6% 17.7% -289bps 21.2% 18.6% -258bps
IFRS EPS € 2.09 (€ 4.98) n.a € 0.60 (€ 6.67) n.a € 1.74 € 1.12 -36% € 2.00 € 1.38 -31%
Adj. EPS € 2.85 (€ 3.83) n.a € 2.05 (€ 4.85) n.a € 2.85 € 1.86 -35% € 3.09 € 2.08 -33%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 44: UBI - GS Estimates vs. Consensus


€mm, except per share data
2H23 FY2023 FY2024
GS Est Cons Est Cons. GS Est FactSet Cons. GS Est Cons Est vs.
Net Bookings € 1,194 € 1,196 0% € 1,893 € 1,895 0% € 2,082 € 2,184 -5%
Non-IFRS GP € 1,042 € 1,044 0% € 1,660 € 1,662 0% € 1,831 € 1,927 -5%
Gross Margin 87.2% 87.3% -5bps 87.7% 87.7% -4bps 87.9% 88.2% -29bps
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM

Non-IFRS EBIT (€ 367) (€ 382) 4% (€ 506) (€ 521) 3% € 369 € 382 -3%


Non-IFRS EBIT Margin -30.8% -31.9% 116bps -26.7% -27.5% 75bps 17.7% 17.5% 25bps
IFRS EPS (€ 4.98) n/a n/a (€ 6.67) (€ 3.92) -70% € 1.12 € 1.27 -12%
Adj. EPS (€ 3.83) n/a n/a (€ 4.85) (€ 3.02) -60% € 1.86 € 1.93 -4%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet, Visible Alpha Consensus Data

Our €22 12-month PT (from €37) is based on a blended fundamental (85% weight)/M&A
(15% weight) valuation methodology, specifically:

n Fundamental: 16x EV/IFRS EPS multiple (from 20.0x) applied to our FY25 (from
FY24) EPS estimate. Over the past ~15 years, AAA gaming publishers have traded in
a +/-1 standard deviation range of 18-32x on GAAP/IFRS PE (or 25x on average) with
UBI trading at 14-32x (or 23x on average). Given UBI’s execution risk and uncertainty
around titles coming to market (with management recently canceling 3
unannounced projects in addition to the 4 already announced in July 2022), we
lower our FY23 EV/IFRS EPS multiple towards the lower end of Ubisoft’s historical

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
trading range.
n M&A: 19x EV/Adj EBITDA multiple (unchanged) applied to our FY25 (from FY24)
estimates.

18 January 2023 28
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Exhibit 45: UBI 12m Valuation Analysis


€mm, except per share data
Scenario Analysis
Downside Base Upside
Fundamental Valuation € 15 € 22 € 31
% upside/downside -28% 8% 52%
IFRS EPS (FY24E) € 1.01 € 1.12 € 1.23
Adjustment -10.0% - 10.0%
IFRS EPS (FY25E) € 1.21 € 1.38 € 1.54
Adjustment -12.0% - 12.0%
PE 12.0x 16.0x 20.0x
IFRS EPS CAGR ('23-'25) n/a n/a n/a
PEG n/a n/a n/a
Enterprise Value € 2,848 € 3,812 € 4,945
Capital Structure Adjustments
Adjusted Net Debt - 2024E € 978 € 978 € 978
Shares Outstanding - 2024E 129 129 € 129

M&A Valuation
Adj. EBITDA (FY25) € 204
Adj. EBITDA Margin 9%
Target multiple 19.0x
Enterprise Value € 3,877
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM

Less net debt € 978


Equity Value € 2,899
Shares 129
M&A Value € 23

Weightings
Fundamental 100% 85% 100%
M&A 0% 15% 0%

12 month PT € 15 € 22 € 31
% upside/downside -26% 8% 53%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Key Risks: Execution on forward pipeline, where game delays, monetization levels or
better/worse execution could meaningfully impact our operating estimates; International
scale and levels of competition, where Ubisoft historically operated within a heightened
competitive environment – should competitive intensity increase then Ubisoft’s games
could see its user base and time spent in games shift to other games/platforms;
Employee productivity levels, as compared to its peers, Ubisoft’s developer headcount is

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
substantially higher (resulting in an overall lower margin profile) and changes in the pace
of hiring could create upside to margins (& conversely an area of downside if Ubisoft
continues to hire at historical levels).

Sciplay (SCPL) - Maintain Buy Rating; Increase PT to $22 (from $20)


We make no changes to our operating assumptions for SCPL.

Exhibit 46: SCPL - GS Estimates vs. Consensus


$mm, except per share data
Q4 2022 2022 2023 2024
% GS vs. % GS vs. % GS vs. % GS vs.
GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons
Total Revenue $ 176 $ 178 -1% $ 665 $ 658 1% $ 695 $ 702 -1% $ 742 $ 737 1%
Revenue per MPU $ 98 n/a n/a $ 98 n/a n/a $ 101 n/a n/a $ 103 n/a n/a
MPU 0.569 n/a n/a 0.564 n/a n/a 0.574 n/a n/a 0.603 n/a n/a
Payer conversion 9.7% n/a n/a 9.4% n/a n/a 9.7% n/a n/a 9.8% n/a n/a
MAUs 5.9 5.9 0% 6.0 6.1 -2% 5.9 6.4 n/a 6.2 7.0 n/a
DAUs 2.1 2.2 -5% 2.2 2.3 -3% 2.1 2.5 -15% 2.2 2.9 -24%
GAAP Gross Profit $ 123 $ 125 -1% $ 464 $ 465 0% $ 485 $ 499 -3% $ 519 $ 525 -1%
Gross Margin 70% 70% 0% 70% 71% -1% 70% 71% -2% 70% 71% -2%
ADJ. EBITDA $ 58 $ 60 -3% $ 186 $ 187 -1% $ 203 $ 207 -2% $ 220 $ 225 -2%
EBITDA Margin 32.8% 33.7% -3% 28.0% 28.4% -2% 29.2% 29.5% -1% 29.7% 30.6% -3%
GAAP EPS $ 0.30 $ 0.33 -10% $ 0.90 $ 0.96 -6% $ 1.05 $ 1.17 -10% $ 1.35 $ 1.41 -4%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet

18 January 2023 29
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Our $22 12-month price target (from $20) is based on a blend of fundamental (85%
weight)/M&A (15% weight) valuation methodology, specifically:

n Fundamental: 15x EV/FCF-SBC multiple (unchanged) applied to our 2024 (from


2023) estimates;
n M&A: 2.5x EV/Revenue multiple (unchanged) applied to our 2024 (from 2023)
estimates.

Exhibit 47: SCPL 12m Valuation Analysis


$mm, except per share data
Scenario Analysis
Downside Base Upside
Fundamental Valuation $ 9 $ 22 $ 30
% upside/downside -44% 39% 87%
FCF-SBC (FY23E) $ 118 $ 148 $ 156
Margin 17.0% 21.4% 22.5%
FCF-SBC (FY24E) $ 133 $ 159 $ 171
Margin 18.0% 21.5% 23.0%
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM

EV / 2024 FCF-SBC 5.0x 15.0x 20.0x


FCF-SBC CAGR ('22-'24) 0% 9% 12%
EV / FCF-SBC to Growth -10.31x 1.73x 1.60x
Enterprise Value $ 667 $ 2,387 $ 3,411
Implied ratios:
EV/2024 FCF 3.9x 14.1x 20.2x
P/2024 EPS 6.7x 16.5x 22.2x
Capital Structure Adjustments
Adjusted Net Debt - 2023E $ (468) $ (468) $ (468)
Shares Outstanding - 2023E 127.8 127.8 127.8

M&A Valuation
Revenue (FY24) $ 742
Adjustment -
Target multiple 2.5x
Revenue CAGR ('22-'24) 6%
EV/Sales-to-growth 0.45x
Enterprise Value $ 1,854
Less net debt $ (468)
Equity Value $ 2,322
Shares 128
M&A Value $ 18

Weightings

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Fundamental 100% 85% 100%
M&A 0% 15% 0%

Implied Valuation $ 9 $ 22 $ 30
% upside/downside -44% 37% 87%

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Key Risks: Game launches: SciPlay has a limited track record of launching new casual
games which could indicate a greater level of execution risk; User acquisition costs:
Over the past year, Apple’s changes to IDFA has resulted in limited visibility in mobile
game publishers’ ability to target high lifetime value users, therefore resulting in
near-term headwinds; Competition: As new forms of entertainment become available
and as AAA publishers continue to release mobile versions of key IP, SciPlay could
experience lower engagement in existing games; SciPlay’s ownership structure: SciPlay
is currently controlled by Scientific Games; SciPlay remains exposed to the volatility
caused by the global macroeconomic environment & investor risk appetite for growth
stocks.

18 January 2023 30
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Disclosure Appendix
Reg AC
We, Eric Sheridan, Lane Czura, Pierre Riopel and Sarah Boulos, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our
personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research division.

GS Factor Profile
The Goldman Sachs Factor Profile provides investment context for a stock by comparing key attributes to the market (i.e. our coverage universe) and its
sector peers. The four key attributes depicted are: Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple (e.g. valuation) and Integrated (a composite of Growth, Financial
Returns and Multiple). Growth, Financial Returns and Multiple are calculated by using normalized ranks for specific metrics for each stock. The
normalized ranks for the metrics are then averaged and converted into percentiles for the relevant attribute. The precise calculation of each metric may
vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region, but the standard approach is as follows:
Growth is based on a stock’s forward-looking sales growth, EBITDA growth and EPS growth (for financial stocks, only EPS and sales growth), with a
higher percentile indicating a higher growth company. Financial Returns is based on a stock’s forward-looking ROE, ROCE and CROCI (for financial
stocks, only ROE), with a higher percentile indicating a company with higher financial returns. Multiple is based on a stock’s forward-looking P/E, P/B,
price/dividend (P/D), EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF and EV/Debt Adjusted Cash Flow (DACF) (for financial stocks, only P/E, P/B and P/D), with a higher percentile
indicating a stock trading at a higher multiple. The Integrated percentile is calculated as the average of the Growth percentile, Financial Returns
percentile and (100% - Multiple percentile).
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM

Financial Returns and Multiple use the Goldman Sachs analyst forecasts at the fiscal year-end at least three quarters in the future. Growth uses inputs
for the fiscal year at least seven quarters in the future compared with the year at least three quarters in the future (on a per-share basis for all metrics).
For a more detailed description of how we calculate the GS Factor Profile, please contact your GS representative.

M&A Rank
Across our global coverage, we examine stocks using an M&A framework, considering both qualitative factors and quantitative factors (which may vary
across sectors and regions) to incorporate the potential that certain companies could be acquired. We then assign a M&A rank as a means of scoring
companies under our rated coverage from 1 to 3, with 1 representing high (30%-50%) probability of the company becoming an acquisition target, 2
representing medium (15%-30%) probability and 3 representing low (0%-15%) probability. For companies ranked 1 or 2, in line with our standard
departmental guidelines we incorporate an M&A component into our target price. M&A rank of 3 is considered immaterial and therefore does not
factor into our price target, and may or may not be discussed in research.

Quantum
Quantum is Goldman Sachs’ proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for
in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets.

Disclosures
The rating(s) for AppLovin Corp., Electronic Arts Inc., Playtika, Roblox, Sciplay Corp., Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. and Ubisoft
Entertainment SA is/are relative to the other companies in its/their coverage universe: ACV Auctions Inc., ANGI Homeservices Inc., Activision
Blizzard Inc., Airbnb Inc., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., AppLovin Corp., Bird Global Inc., Booking Holdings Inc., Bumble Inc., Chegg Inc., Chewy Inc.,
Coursera Inc., DoorDash Inc., DoubleVerify Inc., Duolingo Inc., Electronic Arts Inc., Etsy Inc., Expedia Group, Fiverr International Ltd., Frontdoor Inc.,
GoodRx Holdings Inc., Groupon Inc., IAC/InterActiveCorp, Lyft Inc., Match Group, Meta Platforms Inc., Nerdy Inc., Netflix Inc., Nextdoor Holdings,

abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Peloton Interactive Inc., Pinterest Inc., Playtika, Rent the Runway Inc., Roblox, Rover Group, Sciplay Corp., Snap Inc., Spotify Technology S.A., Take-Two
Interactive Software Inc., ThredUP Inc., Uber Technologies Inc., Ubisoft Entertainment SA, Upwork Inc., Vacasa Inc., Wayfair Inc., Xometry Inc., Yelp
Inc., ZipRecruiter Inc., eBay Inc.

Company-specific regulatory disclosures


Compendium report: please see disclosures at https://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this
compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research

Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships


Goldman Sachs Investment Research global Equity coverage universe

Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships


Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell
Global 47% 37% 16% 64% 58% 48%

As of January 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,201 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks
as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for
the purposes of the above disclosure required by the FINRA Rules. See ‘Ratings, Coverage universe and related definitions’ below. The Investment
Banking Relationships chart reflects the percentage of subject companies within each rating category for whom Goldman Sachs has provided
investment banking services within the previous twelve months.

Price target and rating history chart(s)


Compendium report: please see disclosures at https://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this
compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research

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Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Regulatory disclosures
Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations
See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or
co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co-managed
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The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts,
professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst’s area of coverage.
Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst
as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from
serving as an officer, director or advisor of any company in the analyst’s area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be
associated persons of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 or FINRA Rule 2242 restrictions on
communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts.
Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in
prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs
website at https://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States
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abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
New Zealand Act 1989) in New Zealand. This research, and any access to it, is intended for “wholesale clients” (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act
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Sales and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus consumption tax. See company-specific disclosures as to
any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance
Company.

18 January 2023 32
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

Ratings, coverage universe and related definitions


Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or
Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock’s total return potential relative to its coverage universe. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on
an Investment List with an active rating (i.e., a stock that is not Rating Suspended, Not Rated, Coverage Suspended or Not Covered), is deemed
Neutral. Each region manages Regional Conviction lists, which are selected from Buy rated stocks on the respective region’s Investment lists and
represent investment recommendations focused on the size of the total return potential and/or the likelihood of the realization of the return across their
respective areas of coverage. The addition or removal of stocks from such Conviction lists are managed by the Investment Review Committee or other
designated committee in each respective region and do not represent a change in the analysts’ investment rating for such stocks.
Total return potential represents the upside or downside differential between the current share price and the price target, including all paid or
anticipated dividends, expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The total
return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership.
Coverage Universe: A list of all stocks in each coverage universe is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage universe at
https://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
Not Rated (NR). The investment rating, target price and earnings estimates (where relevant) have been suspended pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy
when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or in a strategic transaction involving this company, when there are legal, regulatory
or policy constraints due to Goldman Sachs’ involvement in a transaction, and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman
Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for
determining an investment rating or target price. The previous investment rating and target price, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should
not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does
not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful
(NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

Global product; distributing entities


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abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
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This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we
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trading strategies are distinct from and do not affect the analyst’s fundamental equity rating for such stocks, which rating reflects a stock’s return

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Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet

potential relative to its coverage universe as described herein.


We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act
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18 January 2023 34

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