Professional Documents
Culture Documents
the gaming (PC, console, mobile) industry in the coming weeks. In summary, we Lane Czura
+1(917)343-8682 | lane.czura@gs.com
see the industry facing: 1) a console cycle that is beginning to track along more Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
normative trends as global supply chain issues abate post-pandemic; 2) calendar Pierre Riopel
+1(212)934-4505 | pierre.riopel@gs.com
2023/2024 are set up across the industry with a robust pipeline of content releases Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
that could be supportive of re-accelerating revenue growth while also raising some Sarah Boulos
+1(212)357-0476 | sarah.boulos@gs.com
concerns about competitive intensity; 3) mobile gaming headwinds beginning to Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
stabilize (post pandemic lift in growth/engagement followed by mid ’21 to mid ’22
headwinds from Apple privacy changes); & 4) open-ended questions about how
volatile consumer behavior (with the majority of investor expectations aligned with a
downtick or recession) could impact spending habits in the coming 6-9 months.
We also present updated estimates for our GS Global Gaming TAM (addressable
market) – framed as ~$228bn in 2021, across ~3bn players globally. Mobile
accounts for a majority of spend at ~$143bn in 2021 (or ~63% of total), while
console game software (~$47bn, ~21%) and PC games (~$38bn, ~17%) accounted
for the remainder of the market. We expect the market to decline -6% YoY in 2022e
(to ~$214bn), led by ongoing weakness in mobile (-11% YoY). For the forward
2023-2026 period, we see growth reaccelerating to a +7% CAGR, as mobile
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
recovers (towards a more normalized +9% CAGR) and as console and PC see a
slight reacceleration towards a +3/+5% annual cadence, respectively. In terms of
forward estimates, we broadly inject an additional layer of conservatism in revenue
estimates over the coming 6-9 months to reflect the uncertain backdrop for
consumer spending and low visibility into content launches (apart from already
announced titles). As a derivative impact, such reduction in revenue (when coupled
with strong content pipeline development costs) puts a downward pressure on
near-term earnings estimates (which could prove to be conservative). Looking
long-term, we are increasingly constructive on the broader industry backdrop (as
reflected in our updated global industry modeling).
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC
certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
18 January 2023 2
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
We present updated estimates for our GS Global Gaming TAM (Exhibit 2), first
introduced by our Japan Games & Entertainment team in their recent initiation (link). We
size the Global Gaming market at ~$228bn in 2021, across ~3bn players globally. Mobile
accounts for a majority of spend at ~$143bn in 2021 (or ~63% of total), while console
game software (~$47bn, 21%) and PC games (~$38bn, 17%) accounted for the
remainder of the market. We expect the market to decline -6% YoY in 2022e (to
~$214bn), led by ongoing weakness in mobile (-11% YoY). For the following 2023-26e
period, we see growth reaccelerating to a +7% CAGR, as mobile recovers (towards a
more normalized +9% CAGR) and as console and PC see a slight reacceleration towards
a +3/+5% annual cadence, respectively. On a regional basis (Exhibit 3), North America
was the largest region in terms of spending in 2021, at ~25% of total, followed by China
at 20% and Western Europe at 17%.
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
Exhibit 2: Global Gaming Market - By Platform (GSe) Exhibit 3: Global Gaming Market - By Region (GSe)
$bn $bn
300 300
250 250
93
Global game market ($ bn)
86
78
200 200 62 71
183 9
169 51 63 8
155 15
141 10 8 15
150 143 128 150 9 16 8 14
124 39 8 14 47
28 17 13 45
7 43
96 24 7 46 38 40
80 14 14 40
100 100 21 6 46
68 5 12 33 42 44
54 46 48 12 32 38 40
38 39 42 44 30 36 37
35 25
50 34 34 50 26 29
31 33 20 22 68 73
48 50 51 53 52 57 54 59 63
31 33 46 47 46 38 40
23 25 27 31
- 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
Console game software PC Mobile / Tablet North America Western Europe China Japan Korea Others
Source: IDC, Newzoo, CNG, MSCT, App Annie, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Source: IDC, Newzoo, Kadokawa, MSCT, App Annie, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Research Investment Research
18 January 2023 3
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
longer development cycles to take advantage of advanced technology with the new
generation of consoles. Goldman Sachs’ Sony analyst Minami Munakata forecasts
PlayStation 5 sell-in and cumulative tie ratio to be on par with PlayStation 4 by 2024,
with the expected positive inflection in the PlayStation 5 tie ratio in 2023 indicating that
AAA publishers will be releasing more premium titles in 2023 and beyond.
Exhibit 4: Current Console Cycle vs. Prior Console Cycle - Unit Sell-In & Tie Ratio
mm
140 14.0
120 12.0
100 10.0
80 8.0
60 6.0
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
40 4.0
20 2.0
0 0.0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
PS4 Unit Sell-In PS5 Unit Sell-In PS4 Cumulative tie ratio PS5 Cumulative tie ratio
While the 9th generation of consoles still lags behind the 8th generation (in terms of
lifetime units sold on a comparative basis), AAA publishers’ pipeline remained robust in
FY2023 (Exhibit 5) with the recent launches of Overwatch 2, Marvel’s Midnight Suns,
NHL 2023 and Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope in 3FQ23 and the upcoming launches
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
of more games in 4FQ23, including Star Wars Jedi: Survivor, Dead Space, PGA TOUR,
Grand Theft Auto: The Trilogy (mobile). We note that Ubisoft recently pushed Skull and
Bones to early FY24 (start April 2023), with management highlighting the extra time
being allocated towards polishing the game (which was slated for FY23 prior to the
announcement).
18 January 2023 4
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
4FQ23
Company Game Platform
EA Star Wars Jedi: Survivor PS5, Xbox X|S, PC
EA Wild Hearts PS5, Xbox X|S, PC
EA Dead Space PS5, Xbox X|S, PC
EA PGA TOUR TBA
EA Super Mega Baseball TBA
TTWO WWE 2K23 TBA
TTWO Grand Theft Auto: The Trilogy (mobile) iOS | Android
TTWO Kerbal Space Program 2 PC (PS5, Xbox X|S to follow)
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
Looking beyond FY2023, AAA publishers have a robust set of content planned, most
notably: Diablo IV (ATVI; expected in June CY2023), GTA VI (TTWO; timing TBA), Avatar:
Frontier of Pandora (UBI; expected in FY2024), and an array of content from UBI’s
Assassin’s Creed franchise.
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
TTWO NBA 2K
TTWO PGA 2K
TTWO WWE 2K
TTWO GTA VI
TTWO Star Wars Hunters [cross-platform Switch, iOS, Android]
TTWO Judas
TTWO After Us
UBI Skull and Bones
UBI Avatar: Frontier of Pandora
UBI Prince of Persia
UBI Beyond Good & Evil 2
UBI AC: Mirage
UBI AC: Codename Red
UBI AC: Codename Jade [mobile]
UBI AC: Codename Hexe
UBI AC: Project Infinity
UBI TC: The Division Year 5
UBI TC: The Division Resurgence [mobile]
UBI TC: The Division Heartland [F2P on PC/Console]
UBI TC: Rainbow Six [mobile]
UBI Xdefiant [F2P on PC/console]
18 January 2023 5
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
As can be seen below in Exhibit 7, US video game sales (across content, hardware and
accessories) started to stabilize in October, following almost a full year of declines (with
November +3% YoY and December stable). The improvement was mostly driven by
hardware sales, which declined -9% YoY in October, but grew by a meaningful +45%
YoY in November and +16% YoY in December (with Oct only representing ~13% of Q4
sales, vs. Nov 39%, Dec 48%), as the latest consoles continue to see adoption. Content
sales grew +2% YoY in October and declined -5%/-3% YoY in November/December.
Accessories sales declined -8% YoY in October and grew +10%/2% YoY in
November/December. We note that October is the smallest month in terms of absolute
dollar contribution to Q4’22, only representing 24% of total sales, vs.
November/December accounting for 35%/42%.
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
$9,000 160%
$8,000 140%
120%
$7,000
100%
$6,000 80%
$5,000 60%
$4,000 40%
$3,000 20%
0%
$2,000
-20%
$1,000 -40%
$0 -60%
Jan-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Nov-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Mar-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Sep-21
Aug-22
Sep-22
Aug-21
Apr-21
May-21
Oct-21
Apr-22
May-22
Oct-22
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Looking at the top selling games in the US (Exhibit 8), november’s top 10 included the
following games from our covered companies: ATVI’s Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II
(2022) (#1), EA’s FIFA 23 (#6), Madden NFL 23 (#5) and TTWO’s NBA 2K23 (#7). In
December, the top 10 included: ATVI’s Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II (2022) (#1,
stable), EA’s Madden NFL 23 (#4, up +1 position), FIFA 23 (#5, up +1 position), Need for
Speed: Unbound (#8). However, we note that the monthly rankings are highly
dependent on timing of release and that this data tracks sales for the US only, with
certain titles over/under-indexing to the US (e.g., Madden vs. FIFA). Looking at the last
twelve months, which tends to show more stability relative to monthly rankings, the top
10 included one title from ATVI (Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II (2022) (#1) and two
titles from EA (Madden NFL 23 (#3) and FIFA 23 (#7)).
18 January 2023 6
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Exhibit 9 Steam’s peak concurrent users saw continued momentum during Q4’22.
Twitch viewership hours (Exhibit 10) continued to decline YoY, with Q4’22 declines of
-8% worse vs. Q3’22 (-2%) and total hours watched down sequentially Q/Q, as
December represented the lowest point of 2022 and declined -11% YoY.
35 2,500 140%
120%
30 2,000 100%
25 80%
1,500
20 60%
40%
15 1,000
20%
10
500 0%
5 -20%
0 - -40%
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
1/1/2020
5/1/2020
7/1/2020
9/1/2020
3/1/2021
5/1/2021
9/1/2021
3/1/2022
5/1/2022
7/1/2022
9/1/2022
3/1/2020
1/1/2021
7/1/2021
1/1/2022
11/1/2020
11/1/2021
11/2/17
11/2/18
11/2/19
11/2/20
11/2/21
11/2/22
2/2/18
5/2/18
8/2/18
2/2/19
5/2/19
8/2/19
2/2/20
5/2/20
8/2/20
2/2/21
5/2/21
8/2/21
2/2/22
5/2/22
8/2/22
Source: Steam, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Sully Gnome, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
18 January 2023 7
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
On a geographic level, Asia and LatAm have seen the most momentum in terms of
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
share gains over the past several years (Exhibit 12). We use app downloads as a proxy
for market share and note that Asia has increased share from 35% in Q1’18 to 41% in
Q4’22 (and LatAm from 17% to 21%). More recently, all regions have seen YoY declines
in app downloads in Q4’22 as the mobile environment remains challenged (Exhibit 13).
Exhibit 11: Global Mobile Gaming Market Revenue YoY Growth Exhibit 12: Regional Share of App Downloads
% YoY %
50% 100%
90%
40% 80%
70%
30%
60%
50%
20%
40%
30%
10%
20%
0% 10%
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Jul-20
Nov-21
Jul-19
Nov-19
Nov-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Nov-22
May-19
May-22
Jan-19
Mar-20
May-20
Mar-19
Jan-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
0%
-10%
Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: SensorTower, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
When examining the gaming market by genre (Exhibit 14), we note that most genres
experienced YoY declines in recent months (in line with the broader mobile
environment), with large declines in lifestyle, RPG (role-playing games), and shooter
18 January 2023 8
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
games (decreasing -28%, -27%, and -25% YoY in Q4’22 respectively). The 2 biggest
categories within the mobile gaming market are RPG and strategy, which have also seen
double digit declines this quarter. However, hypercasual games continue to be a
consistent bright spot, growing +10% YoY in Q4’22 (vs. +1% in Q4’21), despite the
broader weakness in casual games, and with particular strength in Bricks Ball Crusher,
Kick the Buddy and Numberzilla: Number Match Game. When segmenting the global
gaming market by category (Exhibit 15), most categories saw YoY declines (Casual -10%
YoY, Mid-Core -18% YoY, Sports & Racing -13%), while Casino games were roughly
stable (+1% YoY).
100% Tabletop
90% Strategy
80%
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
Sports
70% Simulation
Shooter
60%
50%
RPG
40%
30% Racing
Puzzle
20% Lifestyle
Hypercasual Geolocation
10% Casino
Arcade
0% Action
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-22
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jan-18
Nov-18
May-19
Jan-20
May-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Jan-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
Nov-22
Mar-18
May-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
May-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
May-22
Sep-22
Sep-19
Sep-20
Action Arcade Casino Geolocation Hypercasual Lifestyle Puzzle
Racing RPG Shooter Simulation Sports Strategy Tabletop
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
in $bn
$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jan-18
Apr-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Oct-22
18 January 2023 9
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
games outside of mobile (e.g., Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope and Just Dance 2023)
and to the push-out of Skull & Bones from FY23 into FY24, the company also pointed to
weakness in bookings from casual mobile games as a headwind.
We do not view this commentary as indicative of worsening trends for our broader
mobile coverage, as the rate of change in the overall mobile environment appears to be
stable to slightly improving sequentially (as declines appear to be stabilizing; Exhibit 11).
Instead, we believe that Ubisoft’s commentary of incremental weakness was more tied
to i) its specific mention of casual games (which have underperformed mobile overall;
Exhibit 15) and ii) the relative underperformance of the company’s portfolio against the
broader mobile market (as suggested by Sensor Tower data; Exhibit 17).
AppLovin) increased their share of the global gaming market in recent months
(approaching 15%, as defined by Sensor Tower; Exhibit 16). Based on Sensor Tower
data, app downloads and revenue for most of the major publishers saw YoY declines in
Q4’22 , but with most seeing improving trends intra-quarter (similar to the broader
gaming market). For mobile revenue (Exhibit 17), Sensor Tower data would suggest that
Light & Wonder (Sciplay) performed best at +13% YoY, while Ubisoft performed worst at
-32% YoY. For app downloads (Exhibit 18), AppLovin saw a -57% YoY decline in Q4’22,
while Electronic Arts saw a +54% YoY increase (despite revenues indicated -11% YoY).
Exhibit 16: Select Companies Market Share of Global Gaming Exhibit 17: Worldwide Revenue Growth by Publisher
Market % YoY
% Share
15% 40%
30%
15%
20%
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
14% 10%
0%
14% -10%
-20%
13%
-30%
13% -40%
12%
Jun-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Nov-21
Dec-21
Nov-22
Dec-22
Feb-21
Mar-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-21
Apr-22
Aug-21
May-21
Sep-21
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Oct-21
May-22
Select Companies include revenue from: Activision Blizzard, Ubisoft, Take-Two Interactive, Source: SensorTower, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Electronic Arts, Roblox, Playtika, and Scientific Games International
18 January 2023 10
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
Looking across our video game coverage space, we also leverage SensorTower data to
examine current-quarter trends for each publisher, looking at top-10 grossing games and
estimates of consolidated metrics across revenue growth, market share dynamics, and
engagement (i.e., time spent/MAU). It is worth noting that the data is derived from
third-party sources and might differ from official company-reported figures.
n Revenue. Activision Blizzard experienced (0.2)% YoY growth in Q4, after a strong Q2
and Q3, ending the year at 7.5% YoY revenue growth in 2022.
n Share. Activision Blizzard has maintained its market share of around 4% since June
2022 which we attribute to the June release of Diablo Immortal.
n Time per user. Time spent/MAU is a mixed bag, with Candy Crush Saga, Candy
Crush Soda Saga, and CoD Mobile (Activision Blizzard’s top 3 games) continuing to
decline YoY while Pet Rescue Saga maintained healthy YoY growth rates.
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
18 January 2023 11
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Exhibit 19: ATVI Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
ATVI 15.3% 7.5% -8% -1% 2% 0% 12% 5% 30% 18% 17% 7% -9% 4% 7% -0.2%
1 Candy Crush Saga 23% 17.3% -6% 9% 19% 26% 37% 33% 17% 22% 21% 13% -8% 1% 16% 2%
2 Candy Crush Soda Saga 11% -7.7% -19% -10% -6% -3% 5% -3% -10% -14% -11% -13% -13% -8% -8% -9%
3 Call of Duty®: Mobile 31% -19.9% -51% -25% -16% -27% -8% -28% -17% -46% -28% -31% -28% 17% -2% -7%
4 Hearthstone 4% -4.8% -9% -14% -33% -23% 49% 16% 40% -22% 11% 38% -53% -22% -44% -41%
5 Farm Heroes Saga 27% -26.6% -54% -7% -18% -22% -24% -23% -25% -36% -36% -39% -33% -29% -27% -30%
6 Candy Crush Friends Saga -31% -34.7% -4% -31% -27% -31% -38% -31% -32% -29% -33% -39% -42% -38% -45% -42%
7 Bubble Witch 3 Saga -22% -23.0% -1% -32% -23% -24% -20% -19% -16% -17% -19% -24% -27% -27% -27% -27%
8 Candy Crush Jelly Saga -4% -21.0% -17% -12% -16% -24% -20% -17% -14% -18% -23% -24% -28% -29% -27% -28%
9 Pet Rescue Saga -10% -19.3% -9% -20% -15% -16% -16% -24% -21% -20% -21% -16% -20% -18% -25% -21%
10 暗黑破坏神:不朽 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Market Share
ATVI 3.0% 3.6% 1% 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 3.5% 3.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0%
1 Candy Crush Saga 1.4% 1.8% 0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
2 Candy Crush Soda Saga 0.5% 0.5% 0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
3 Call of Duty®: Mobile 0.8% 0.7% 0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9%
4 Hearthstone 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
5 Farm Heroes Saga 0.2% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
6 Candy Crush Friends Saga 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Bubble Witch 3 Saga 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Candy Crush Jelly Saga 0.1% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Pet Rescue Saga 0.1% 0.0% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
10 暗黑破坏神:不朽 0.0% 0.5% 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth
1 Candy Crush Saga 5.6 5.3 -6% 6.6% 3.9% 0.6% -4.2% -8.0% -1.6% -1.9% -4.7% -10.2% -13.1% -15.3% -18.4% -15.6%
2 Candy Crush Soda Saga 6.7 6.3 -6% -6.1% -3.4% -5.0% -6.7% -11.1% -8.5% -5.6% -1.2% -6.1% -3.5% -6.1% -9.5% -6.4%
3 Call of Duty®: Mobile 8.1 7.1 -13% -9.9% -11.0% -18.2% -8.5% -19.0% -11.0% -13.9% -14.1% -18.8% -15.1% -7.7% -10.0% -11.1%
4 Hearthstone 9.2 10.3 11% 13.7% 21.3% 15.6% 18.5% 16.9% 15.3% 8.8% 18.9% 11.1% 0.5% -1.1% 1.4% 0.3%
5 Farm Heroes Saga 4.8 4.8 -1% -5.3% -1.3% -2.0% -0.7% 6.7% 4.5% 6.4% -0.8% -5.3% -3.6% 7.0% -9.9% -2.5%
6 Candy Crush Friends Saga 4.8 4.7 -2% 2.2% 3.3% -1.9% -8.7% 3.6% 0.6% -3.9% 2.6% -3.3% 0.5% -5.0% -11.5% -5.4%
7 Bubble Witch 3 Saga 4.6 4.5 -3% 8.4% 0.1% 4.3% -5.3% -5.2% -2.0% -0.9% 8.2% -6.7% -15.6% -3.7% -16.7% -12.2%
8 Candy Crush Jelly Saga 6.1 5.9 -4% 6.9% 5.9% -5.4% -12.0% -2.5% 4.5% 0.3% -0.9% -0.6% -9.8% -15.1% -16.9% -13.9%
9 Pet Rescue Saga 4.9 5.4 11% 1.5% 4.5% 7.7% 13.2% 11.7% 11.7% 19.6% 9.6% 23.0% 10.1% 16.8% -0.2% 8.6%
10 暗黑破坏神:不朽 N/A 5.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
n Revenue. EA’s top mobile games are seeing negative double-digits % revenue YoY
declines in Q4’22 (with the exception of FIFA Mobile at +85% YoY in the quarter).
n Share. As a result, 2022 market share is relatively flat to slightly down on a YoY
basis.
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
n Time per user. Time Spent/MAU is seeing varying trends across the portfolio in
Q4’22 (but generally better than revenues) with a notable divergence in the top
games (some with positive YoY growth and some with deeper declines).
18 January 2023 12
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Exhibit 20: EA Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
EA -1.1% -18.4% -17% -31% -17% -23% -29% -13% -16% -16% -23% -19% -18% -13% -3% -11%
1 Star Wars™: Galaxy of Heroes -6.3% -25.3% -19% -35% -22% -15% -23% -22% -32% -16% -32% -21% -23% -37% -26% -29%
2 Golf Clash -2.2% -24.1% -22% -22% -14% -27% -31% -25% -25% -23% -23% -22% -32% -25% -20% -26%
3 Design Home: Dream Makeover -28.6% -24.3% 4% -32% -32% -33% -38% -36% -33% -29% -20% -20% -10% -1% -8% -7%
4 FIFA Mobile: FIFA World Cup™ 3.6% 35.3% 32% -21% 38% 50% 9% 49% 23% 16% -6% 1% 0% 63% 201% 85%
5 SimCity BuildIt -8.9% -19.4% -10% -30% -26% -26% -17% -19% -22% -26% -28% -17% -10% -7% -4% -7%
6 Madden NFL 23 Mobile Football 130% -25.3% -155% -36% -1% -40% -44% -22% -18% -22% -37% -31% -17% -16% -20% -17%
7 The Sims™ FreePlay -7.6% -29.0% -21% -15% -18% -27% -42% -46% -42% -38% -19% -29% -24% -16% -33% -25%
8 Covet Fashion: Model Makeover -25.9% -23.4% 2% -33% -15% -31% -30% -21% -26% -26% -26% -23% -22% -22% -7% -17%
9 Need for Speed™ No Limits 13.6% -48.8% -62% -15% -12% -30% -50% -59% -67% -65% -63% -61% -58% -57% -48% -54%
10 Kim Kardashian: Hollywood -29.7% -44.8% -15% -34% -42% -50% -52% -47% -36% -45% -50% -53% -47% -35% -47% -43%
Market Share
EA 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3%
1 Star Wars™: Galaxy of Heroes 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
2 Golf Clash 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
3 Design Home: Dream Makeover 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
4 FIFA Mobile: FIFA World Cup™ 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
5 SimCity BuildIt 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
6 Madden NFL 23 Mobile Football 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
7 The Sims™ FreePlay 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
8 Covet Fashion: Model Makeover 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
9 Need for Speed™ No Limits 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Kim Kardashian: Hollywood 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth
1 Star Wars™: Galaxy of Heroes 11.1 10.1 -8% -2.0% -3.1% -10.1% -0.8% -3.4% -6.7% -6.6% -3.0% -14.4% -17.5% -15.8% -13.9% -15.7%
2 Golf Clash 5.9 6.3 6% -6.7% -13.5% 6.5% 7.5% 14.6% 6.3% -0.5% 36.9% 7.8% -3.6% 15.2% 2.6% 4.1%
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
3 Design Home: Dream Makeover 2.5 2.9 14% 15.0% 19.3% 22.3% 15.2% 0.4% 6.9% 22.5% 19.6% 9.9% 18.8% 17.9% -0.9% 11.7%
4 FIFA Mobile: FIFA World Cup™ 5.7 5.7 0% -12.0% -9.5% -2.5% 6.1% -0.7% 5.5% -3.5% -8.9% -18.6% -0.6% 11.0% 42.1% 16.6%
5 SimCity BuildIt 4.7 4.5 -5% 4.0% 9.3% -7.2% -8.5% -11.8% -4.4% -10.6% -9.2% -2.3% -3.8% -3.1% -7.6% -4.8%
6 Madden NFL 23 Mobile Football 4.3 3.6 -15% -29.7% -16.8% -22.7% -11.6% 9.5% -15.4% -7.5% -10.5% -11.5% -10.3% -21.7% -21.4% -18.0%
7 The Sims™ FreePlay 3.4 3.4 0% 7.2% 17.0% 7.6% 1.6% 6.1% 1.6% 0.7% -0.6% -10.1% -11.8% -12.1% -6.2% -10.0%
8 Covet Fashion: Model Makeover 4.7 4.2 -12% -8.1% -8.5% -10.3% -13.2% -2.8% -5.2% -6.3% -3.0% -13.8% -20.2% -27.3% -22.3% -23.3%
9 Need for Speed™ No Limits 1.7 1.7 -1% -13.2% 7.9% 2.2% 7.1% 21.5% 2.6% 3.9% -4.9% -7.6% -3.5% -9.1% -13.6% -8.9%
10 Kim Kardashian: Hollywood 4.5 4.5 0% 13.3% 7.7% 22.7% 7.8% -4.4% -2.1% -4.2% 4.6% 1.1% -10.0% -16.5% -6.6% N/A
Take-Two (TTWO)
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
18 January 2023 13
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Exhibit 21: TTWO Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
TTWO -1.1% -13.1% -12% -11% -9% -10% -14% -15% -15% -16% -15% -15% -14% -11% -14% -13%
1 Toon Blast -8.0% -20.4% -12% -7% -3% -8% -21% -17% -21% -30% -29% -33% -27% -25% -23% -25%
2 Empires & Puzzles: Match-3 RPG -6.6% -8.6% -2% -12% -7% -12% -12% -4% -7% -18% 1% -6% -20% 2% -8% -9%
3 Merge Dragons! -24.0% -6.4% 18% -22% -20% -19% -20% -20% -8% -10% -4% -2% 4% 24% 22% 16%
4 Toy Blast -1.0% -24.7% -24% -26% -19% -16% -21% -27% -28% -25% -28% -32% -26% -25% -24% -25%
5 Zynga Poker ™ - Texas Hold'em 11.3% 2.3% -9% 6% 2% 0% 0% -13% -14% 3% 2% 10% 28% 10% -7% 9%
6 CSR 2 Drag Racing Car Games -16.4% -25.3% -9% -37% -40% -27% -19% -43% -40% -21% -20% -13% -5% -16% -24% -15%
7 Wizard of Oz Slots Games 3.2% -23.7% -27% -18% -19% -21% -26% -26% -21% -27% -26% -26% -24% -23% -28% -25%
8 Harry Potter: Puzzles & Spells N/A -25.8% N/A -27% -24% -30% -28% -26% -23% -19% -25% -28% -22% -26% -32% -27%
9 Golf Rival 29.3% -11.2% -41% 3% -5% -4% -11% -14% -14% 7% -15% -10% -25% -19% -26% -24%
10 Hit it Rich! Casino Slots Game 9.5% -6.6% -16% -28% -17% -25% -25% -13% -10% 4% 2% 8% 10% 15% 1% 8%
Market Share
TTWO 2.9% 2.8% 0% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8%
1 Toon Blast 0.5% 0.4% 0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
2 Empires & Puzzles: Match-3 RPG 0.4% 0.4% 0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
3 Merge Dragons! 0.2% 0.2% 0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
4 Toy Blast 0.2% 0.2% 0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
5 Zynga Poker ™ - Texas Hold'em 0.1% 0.2% 0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
6 CSR 2 Drag Racing Car Games 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
7 Wizard of Oz Slots Games 0.1% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Harry Potter: Puzzles & Spells 0.4% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
9 Golf Rival 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
10 Hit it Rich! Casino Slots Game 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth
1 Toon Blast 7.7 8.2 6% 19.9% 14.7% 13.2% 16.5% 20.0% 6.2% -1.4% 11.4% -2.6% 3.1% -5.5% -10.5% -4.3%
2 Empires & Puzzles: Match-3 RPG 16.6 16.2 -2% -6.3% -2.3% -4.8% -4.7% 3.9% 0.8% -3.4% -1.6% -2.9% 2.1% 2.1% -7.7% -1.3%
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
3 Merge Dragons! 9.4 11.7 25% 21.3% 20.7% 39.4% 42.2% 33.7% 27.8% 24.0% 41.9% 21.6% 13.9% 9.0% 13.9% 12.2%
4 Toy Blast 7.7 8.7 13% 14.9% 14.3% 13.7% 30.7% 14.2% 10.3% 18.1% 22.8% 10.1% 7.7% 10.4% -1.6% 5.3%
5 Zynga Poker ™ - Texas Hold'em 2.6 2.9 9% 6.9% 4.4% 17.1% 16.6% 26.1% 21.5% 4.2% 9.6% 10.0% 9.4% -1.1% -16.5% -3.8%
6 CSR 2 Drag Racing Car Games 3.2 2.7 -17% -17.7% -11.6% -8.5% -16.4% -25.1% -6.5% -0.4% -24.2% -19.8% -23.6% -26.9% -18.4% -22.9%
7 The Wizard of Oz Magic Match 3 5.8 5.2 -11% -13.2% -12.1% -11.3% -9.3% -8.1% -8.1% -7.6% -10.5% -13.7% -15.6% -13.2% -8.3% -12.5%
8 Harry Potter: Puzzles & Spells 7.6 8.3 8% 19.5% 19.0% 19.9% 23.3% 19.9% 11.9% 8.9% 9.7% 1.8% -2.1% -12.2% -12.2% -8.8%
9 Golf Rival 4.8 5.3 11% 16.6% 38.6% 37.7% 39.0% 19.0% -1.4% 14.9% 4.4% -11.4% -7.4% 6.4% -6.3% -2.6%
10 Hit it Rich! Casino Slots Game 9.9 9.8 0% -9.8% -9.9% -9.8% -2.3% -4.4% -6.2% 5.5% 4.2% 5.6% 4.2% 23.5% 2.1% 8.8%
Ubisoft (UBI)
n Revenue. Ubisoft’s mobile games are seeing YoY deep negative double-digits %
declines in the aggregate for the Q4’22 months, with weakness in some of the
company’s high-grossing games.
n Share. Market share dynamics have remained relatively stable on a YoY basis in
Q4’22.
n Time per user. Time spent/MAU is a mixed bag with particular weakness in
Growtopia and South Park in 2022 vs 2021, with some momentum in Hungry
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Dragon.
18 January 2023 14
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Exhibit 22: UBI Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
UBI -27.2% -31.9% -5% -29% -25% -35% -35% -33% -35% -33% -29% -32% -34% -29% -32% -32%
1 Might & Magic: Era of Chaos -30% -25.6% 4% -26% -26% -32% -32% -20% -26% -15% -16% -36% -32% -21% -26% -26%
2 Hungry Shark World 4% -28.6% -32% -13% -13% -20% -15% -26% -44% -45% -34% -22% -39% -40% -32% -37%
3 Growtopia -14% -23.5% -9% -25% -5% -29% -28% -17% -15% -22% -11% -26% -28% -31% -44% -36%
4 South Park: Phone Destroyer™ -25% -41.8% -17% -32% -29% -44% -36% -43% -43% -45% -45% -49% -47% -35% -52% -45%
5 Hungry Shark Evolution -5% -20.5% -16% -13% -12% -21% -34% -28% -26% -28% -14% -7% -22% -23% -17% -21%
6 Just Dance Now -11% -40.0% -29% -43% -49% -51% -57% -51% -44% -44% -38% -30% -27% -26% -20% -24%
7 Horse Haven World Adventures -36% -52.6% -16% -59% -63% -67% -57% -64% -62% -48% -52% -42% -42% -40% -33% -39%
8 Hungry Dragon -13% -16.6% -4% -12% -12% -23% -22% -33% -32% -16% -8% -21% -15% 0% -6% -8%
9 Assassin’s Creed Rebellion -41% -17.8% 23% -32% -12% -28% -21% -25% -4% -17% -10% -8% -27% -6% -23% -19%
10 Mighty Quest For Epic Loot RPG -66% -81.6% -16% -68% -67% -70% -64% -58% -76% -76% -99% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100%
Market Share
UBI 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
1 Might & Magic: Era of Chaos 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Hungry Shark World 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Growtopia 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 South Park: Phone Destroyer™ 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Hungry Shark Evolution 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Just Dance Now 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Horse Haven World Adventures 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Hungry Dragon 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Assassin’s Creed Rebellion 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Mighty Quest For Epic Loot RPG 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
Roblox (RBLX)
n Revenue. Roblox saw revenue decline YoY in the negative double-digits % in Q4’22,
but sequentially better vs. the sharper YoY declines seen in Q3’22.
n Share. Market share remained largely stable on a YoY basis, with a slight uptick
towards the end of the quarter.
n Time per user. Time Spent/MAU was volatile throughout the quarter, with October
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
2022 showing nearly double digit YoY growth, which faded in November and
December.
Exhibit 23: RBLX - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
Roblox 16% -11.9% -28% -9% 4% 0% -16% -23% -23% -15% -14% -14% -8% -15% -10% -11%
Market Share
Roblox 1.5% 1.5% 0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6%
Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth
Roblox 7.8 7.6 -4% -4.8% -3.3% -1.1% -8.5% -8.3% -0.6% -1.3% -7.6% -6.0% 9.9% -5.5% -3.6% -0.1%
Playtika (PLTK)
18 January 2023 15
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Exhibit 24: PLTK Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
PLTK 4.1% -4.0% -8% -1% 2% -3% -4% -8% -7% -6% -4% -4% -6% -3% -3% -4%
1 Slotomania™ Slots Machine Game -22% -16.0% 5% -24% -17% -21% -13% -19% -25% -14% -22% -15% -13% -8% -1% -7%
2 Bingo Blitz™ - BINGO games 9% 9.3% 0% -8% 17% 10% -1% -1% 0% 3% 12% 16% 24% 17% 21% 21%
3 Solitaire Grand Harvest 56% 22.3% -34% 65% 59% 24% 12% 6% 3% 8% 15% 22% 14% 20% 20% 18%
4 June's Journey: Hidden Objects 28% 27.3% -1% 57% 11% 38% 57% 24% 54% 48% 21% 14% -10% 13% -1% 0%
5 House of Fun: Casino Slot Game -3% -27.4% -24% -29% -25% -35% -35% -29% -33% -36% -27% -31% -24% -12% -13% -16%
6 WSOP Poker: Texas Holdem Game 2% -3.6% -6% 3% 8% -5% -8% -4% -7% -2% 1% -4% -6% -6% -14% -9%
7 Best Fiends - Match 3 Games 12% -8.8% -21% 12% 14% 6% -5% -8% -11% -17% -15% -19% -21% -22% -19% -21%
8 Caesars Slots: Casino games 0% -6.3% -6% 11% 7% -6% -5% -3% -6% -9% -5% -15% -11% -15% -19% -15%
9 Redecor - Home Design Game 118% -32.2% -150% -17% -18% -20% -21% -17% -21% -29% -35% -45% -48% -61% -54% -55%
10 Board Kings: Board dice games 10% -21.5% -31% -24% -16% -14% -24% -33% -17% -37% -6% -19% -33% -11% -25% -24%
Market Share
PLTK 2.1% 2.3% 0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
1 Slotomania™ Slots Machine Game 0.4% 0.4% 0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
2 Bingo Blitz™ - BINGO games 0.4% 0.5% 0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
3 Solitaire Grand Harvest 0.3% 0.3% 0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
4 June's Journey: Hidden Objects 0.2% 0.3% 0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
5 House of Fun: Casino Slot Game 0.2% 0.2% 0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
6 WSOP Poker: Texas Holdem Game 0.2% 0.2% 0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
7 Best Fiends - Match 3 Games 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
8 Caesars Slots: Casino games 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
9 Redecor - Home Design Game 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
10 Board Kings: Board dice games 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth
1 Slotomania™ Slots Machine Game 4.5 3.8 -16% -15.1% -22.4% -16.4% -14.6% -17.1% -11.0% -21.7% -4.6% -13.2% -13.6% -11.5% -22.8% -16.3%
2 Bingo Blitz™ - BINGO games 1.8 1.8 -2% -24.7% 7.9% 4.5% -4.1% -6.0% -15.6% -13.5% -0.3% 13.4% 3.8% 26.1% -0.2% 9.4%
3 Solitaire Grand Harvest 3.8 3.4 -11% 4.1% -0.5% -16.7% -18.8% -20.5% -22.3% -12.1% -1.3% -17.0% -9.0% -4.4% -11.8% -8.5%
4 June's Journey: Hidden Objects 7.0 7.1 2% -6.7% -13.3% -12.1% -3.9% -8.0% 30.8% 27.8% 21.8% 6.1% -1.2% 9.0% 5.3% 4.3%
5 House of Fun: Casino Slot Game 2.1 2.5 20% 11.4% 15.8% 22.7% 35.2% 4.0% 23.4% 14.8% 64.7% 39.3% 16.5% 9.6% 2.6% 9.1%
6 WSOP Poker: Texas Holdem Game 2.3 2.7 17% 19.9% 30.7% 13.9% 15.5% 21.1% 38.5% 30.1% 23.7% 15.1% -1.2% 9.3% 3.8% 3.8%
7 Best Fiends - Match 3 Games 6.8 6.7 -1% 1.8% 7.5% 1.1% 6.8% 5.2% 4.2% 0.6% 0.1% -7.4% -8.0% -10.9% -10.3% -9.7%
8 Caesars Slots: Casino games 1.6 2.3 43% 41.1% 38.5% 41.6% 28.5% 29.4% 32.7% 71.3% 70.4% 75.4% 35.8% 34.2% 31.8% 33.8%
9 Redecor - Home Design Game 3.3 3.4 1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% -16.9% -0.1% -2.0% 4.0% -9.7% 3.8% 26.6% 4.5% 11.1%
10 Board Kings: Board dice games 1.9 2.7 43% 55.0% 75.6% 77.4% 72.3% 73.2% 67.1% 56.8% 41.9% 24.7% 12.4% 2.8% -5.6% 2.7%
SciPlay (SCPL)
n Revenue. SciPlay’s mobile game revenues are trending higher, with positive
double-digits % YoY growth throughout Q4’22, a slight reacceleration vs. Q3’22.
n Share. This apparent revenue outperformance translated into YoY market share gains
in Q4’22 (and in FY 2022).
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
n Time per user. Similar divergence in the Time Spent/MAU trends across the
portfolio during the quarter.
18 January 2023 16
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Exhibit 25: L&W Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
L&W 3.0% 6.0% 3% -5% 3% 6% -2% -1% -3% 9% 10% 15% 6% 14% 20% 13%
1 Jackpot Party - Casino Slots 4% 7.2% 3% -8% 0% 9% -3% -4% -12% 8% 15% 23% 9% 21% 28% 19%
2 Quick Hit Slots - Casino Games 2% 38.0% 35% 15% 28% 25% 23% 34% 58% 71% 43% 42% 35% 40% 40% 38%
3 Gold Fish Casino Slot Games 23% -3.1% -26% 0% 11% 8% -1% -5% -5% -6% -9% -10% -14% -4% -2% -7%
4 88 Fortunes Slots Casino Games 3% -5.5% -9% 3% 0% 2% -1% -4% -1% -8% -6% -14% -21% -13% -4% -13%
5 Bingo Showdown - Bingo Games -12% -30.6% -19% -27% -20% -27% -36% -37% -32% -31% -32% -31% -32% -34% -28% -31%
6 MONOPOLY Slots - Casino Games -13% 4.1% 17% -24% -21% -22% -14% -11% -2% 1% 10% 31% 47% 27% 28% 33%
7 Hot Shot Casino Slots Games -25% -17.3% 8% -34% -30% -17% -28% -17% -23% -24% -12% -9% -5% -5% -2% -4%
8 Backgammon Live™ Board Game 44% 2.7% -41% -20% 8% 14% 7% 4% -5% -1% -2% -2% 7% 9% 13% 10%
9 Blazing 7s Casino: Slots Games -29% -31.0% -2% -23% -26% -19% -7% -43% -41% -42% -32% -25% -26% -44% -46% -39%
10 Live Hold’em Pro Poker -34% -23.1% 11% -37% -47% -31% -45% -47% -32% -25% -15% -28% -31% 73% -13% -5%
Market Share
L&W 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
1 Jackpot Party - Casino Slots 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
2 Quick Hit Slots - Casino Games 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
3 Gold Fish Casino Slot Games 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
4 88 Fortunes Slots Casino Games 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Bingo Showdown - Bingo Games 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 MONOPOLY Slots - Casino Games 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Hot Shot Casino Slots Games 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Backgammon Live™ Board Game 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Blazing 7s Casino: Slots Games 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Live Hold’em Pro Poker 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Time Spent/MAU YoY Growth
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
1 Jackpot Party - Casino Slots 4.8 5.1 7% 12.6% 12.5% 12.4% -1.8% -1.9% -1.2% 7.9% 8.7% 9.2% 8.6% 9.4% 9.8% 9.3%
2 Quick Hit Slots - Casino Games 3.0 3.0 -1% 14.6% 14.8% 15.4% 14.2% 14.2% 15.0% -9.6% -8.8% -9.5% -17.7% -17.3% -17.4% -17.5%
3 Gold Fish Casino Slot Games 2.9 2.9 1% 10.7% 10.0% 8.7% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% -2.5% -2.0% -3.0% -1.6% -1.1% -1.9% -1.6%
4 88 Fortunes Slots Casino Games 2.7 2.8 2% -1.6% -2.6% -2.1% 10.1% 8.3% 8.2% 2.8% 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 2.7% -1.3% 0.6%
5 Bingo Showdown - Bingo Games 4.6 4.4 -4% 2.8% 3.0% 3.3% -8.1% -5.7% -6.7% -6.4% -3.8% -5.2% -6.2% -5.2% -5.3% -5.6%
6 MONOPOLY Slots - Casino Games 0.7 0.9 40% 32.8% 32.8% 33.8% 40.4% 44.1% 45.0% 40.3% 41.9% 41.8% 42.2% 40.2% 41.2% 41.2%
7 Hot Shot Casino Slots Games 4.4 4.1 -7% -4.0% 7.1% -4.5% -1.9% -4.7% -2.5% -6.1% -10.6% -10.1% -16.1% -17.5% -11.7% -15.0%
8 Backgammon Live™ Board Game 4.6 4.5 -3% 13.5% 12.1% 12.9% 8.9% 10.3% 7.6% -17.4% -16.1% -16.3% -16.8% -17.7% -17.6% -17.3%
9 Blazing 7s Casino: Slots Games 3.9 3.3 -16% -5.5% -12.9% -20.5% -24.3% -35.6% -6.4% -12.9% 2.9% -15.8% -20.9% -20.3% -13.7% -18.3%
10 Live Hold’em Pro Poker 1.1 1.1 3% -3.9% -14.9% -9.7% -20.1% -22.7% 41.8% 42.0% 28.7% 13.8% 22.7% 0.1% 3.8% 8.2%
AppLovin (APP)
n Revenue. AppLovin’s mobile game revenues are down substantially YoY, with more
pronounced weakness in the company’s top 4 mobile titles over the period.
n Share. This dynamic has led to lower market share YoY in 2022.
n Time per user. Time Spent/MAU trended down on a YoY basis for most of the top
10 mobile games.
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
18 January 2023 17
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Exhibit 26: APP Top 10 Games - Revenue Growth, Market Share, & Time Spent
2021 2022 % Change Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Q4'22
YoY Revenue Growth
APP 36.9% -26.0% -63% -21% -18% -25% -25% -29% -29% -29% -30% -30% -29% -26% -22% -26%
1 Project Makeover 999% -41.5% -1041% -42% -39% -36% -39% -45% -47% -49% -51% -46% -40% -35% -30% -35%
2 Matchington Mansion -25% -39.9% -15% -40% -35% -43% -41% -46% -42% -41% -45% -47% -40% -32% -28% -33%
3 West Game 6% -27.4% -33% -27% -19% -34% -30% -25% -32% -23% -24% -33% -27% -30% -24% -27%
4 Clockmaker: Match 3 Games! 23% -33.2% -56% -17% -22% -29% -27% -30% -32% -33% -42% -45% -44% -40% -38% -41%
5 Cash Tornado™ Slots - Casino 207% 22.5% -184% 69% 77% 40% 44% 31% 10% 0% -3% 2% -4% 1% 3% 0%
6 Wordscapes -17% 1.2% 18% 2% 6% 9% 8% 2% 2% 6% 12% -1% -10% -10% -12% -10%
7 Final Fantasy XV: A New Empire -47% -51.2% -4% -38% -38% -43% -49% -54% -51% -50% -64% -53% -60% -62% -51% -58%
8 Cooking Madness -A Chef's Game 79% 9.6% -69% 76% 70% 62% 41% -1% -5% -10% -19% -31% -28% -22% -19% -23%
9 Bingo Story – Bingo Games 37% -63.3% -100% -56% -48% -66% -65% -74% -65% -69% -62% -62% -66% -60% -67% -64%
10 Game of War - Fire Age -29% -19.0% 10% -30% -35% -44% -41% -27% -23% -21% -5% 6% 3% -5% -5% -3%
Market Share
APP 1.8% 1.5% -0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
1 Project Makeover 0.4% 0.3% -0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
2 Matchington Mansion 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
3 West Game 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
4 Clockmaker: Match 3 Games! 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
5 Cash Tornado™ Slots - Casino 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
6 Wordscapes 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
7 Final Fantasy XV: A New Empire 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
8 Cooking Madness -A Chef's Game 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
9 Bingo Story – Bingo Games 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Game of War - Fire Age 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
18 January 2023 18
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Below we highlight our updated estimates (including vs. consensus) and our
valuation/PT methodologies for each Gaming company under our coverage. We take this
opportunity to roll-forward our operating forecasts and valuation methodology ahead of
the end of those companies’ fiscal year in the weeks ahead.
We slightly lower Playtika's in-app revenues (mainly through lower daily paying user assumptions) as IDFA continues to be an
PLTK Playtika Neutral $15 $15 $9.80 53% overhang on mobile revenues as well as weaker consumer spend in an economic downturn. In addition, we slightly increase our
assumptions for R&D as management navigates balancing long-term investments against current economic volatility.
We reflect Ubisoft's meaningfully reduced outlook for bookings growth and non-IFRS operating income, which the company
introduced on January 11. We now model FY23 bookings decline of (11)% YoY (from prior 10%) reflecting recent Q3 titles' (Mario
UBI Ubisoft Neutral € 37 € 22 € 20 10%
and Just Dance) underperformance, softness in mobile, and delay of Skull & Bones. In addition, we lower our non-IFRS EBIT
to €(506)mm to reflect lower bookings base as well as €500mm amortization impact.
SCPL Sciplay Buy $20 $22 $15.98 38% We make no changes to our operating assumptions for SCPL.
Electronic Arts (EA) - Maintain Neutral Rating; Increase PT to $131 (from $126)
We slightly revise our topline assumptions down to account for Apex Legends
weakness which is partially offset by strength from FIFA (with the timing of the World
Cup being a contributor). In addition, we downwardly revise our assumptions around
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
opex to reflect slight deleverage for R&D and S&M in FY24 as EA navigates balancing
investments for the long-term with current economic volatility.
Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
Net Revenues $ 1,915 $ 1,870 -2% $ 7,691 $ 7,616 -1% $ 8,049 $ 7,995 -1% $ 8,556 $ 8,503 -1%
Net Bookings $ 2,515 $ 2,470 -2% $ 7,793 $ 7,718 -1% $ 8,151 $ 8,097 -1% $ 8,658 $ 8,605 -1%
Non-GAAP Gross Profit $ 1,955 $ 1,920 -2% $ 6,035 $ 5,977 -1% $ 6,332 $ 6,278 -1% $ 6,749 $ 6,681 -1%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin 77.8% 77.8% 0bps 77.4% 77.4% 0bps 77.7% 77.5% -15bps 77.9% 77.6% -30bps
Non-GAAP EBIT $ 1,036 $ 1,017 -2% $ 2,457 $ 2,429 -1% $ 2,652 $ 2,514 -5% $ 2,876 $ 2,718 -5%
Non-GAAP EBIT Margin 41.2% 41.2% 0bps 31.5% 31.5% -7bps 32.5% 31.1% -149bps 33.2% 31.6% -163bps
FCF $ 1,671 $ 1,658 -1% $ 1,407 $ 1,392 -1% $ 1,831 $ 1,752 -4% $ 1,947 $ 1,860 -4%
Non-GAAP EPS $ 2.99 $ 2.94 -2% $ 7.03 $ 6.96 -1% $ 7.68 $ 7.30 -5% $ 8.47 $ 8.03 -5%
18 January 2023 19
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
EV/2025 FCF 11.9x 16.7x 23.3x
P/2025 EPS 10.7x 14.8x 20.4x
Capital Structure Adjustments
Adjusted Net Debt - 2024E $ (1,180) $ (1,180) $ (1,180)
Shares Outstanding - 2024E 271.8 271.8 271.8
M&A Valuation
Adj. EBITDA (FY25) $ 2,866
Adj. EBITDA Margin 33.3%
Target multiple 19.0x
Enterprise Value $ 54,459
Less net debt $ (1,180)
Equity Value $ 53,279
Shares 271.8
M&A Value $ 196
Implied ratios:
EV/2025 FCF 29.3x
P/2025 EPS 24.4x
Weightings
Fundamental 100% 85% 100%
M&A 0% 15% 0%
Key Risks: Higher or lower unit and live services estimates for both its annualized (i.e.,
FIFA, Madden) and non-annualized titles (i.e., Battlefield); Continued integration
18 January 2023 20
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
struggles with recent acquisitions (i.e., Glu); Heightened government regulation (esp.
around loot boxes and other micro transactions); Greater or lower receptivity to new
games than what’s currently priced in; Potential loss of licensing agreements for key IP
(e.g., Madden, FIFA); Increased competition in both the console and mobile market as
tools for development become more commoditized.
this lower revenue trajectory to also impact margins, as elements of fixed cost growth
cause operating deleverage and as the company signaled its intention to continue
investing towards growth despite a more volatile environment (across e.g., headcount
and CapEx).
Exhibit 31: RBLX Estimate Changes: Q4’22, 2022, 2023 and 2024
$mm, except per share data
Q4 2022 2022 2023 2024
Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
GAAP Revenue $ 683 $ 571 -16% $ 2,329 $ 2,217 -5% $ 2,773 $ 2,637 -5% $ 3,319 $ 3,006 -9%
Total Bookings $ 849 $ 890 5% $ 2,822 $ 2,863 1% $ 3,446 $ 3,276 -5% $ 4,129 $ 3,738 -9%
DAUs 61 59 -3% 56 56 -1% 66 63 -3% 77 71 -8%
Bookings per DAU $ 14.00 $ 15.07 8% $ 50.00 $ 51.09 2% $ 51.75 $ 51.60 0% $ 53.56 $ 52.87 -1%
Adj. Gross Profit $ 654 $ 686 5% $ 2,173 $ 2,204 1% $ 2,670 $ 2,539 -5% $ 3,201 $ 2,898 -9%
Gross Margin 77.0% 77.0% 0% 77.0% 77.0% 0% 77.5% 77.5% 0% 77.5% 77.5% 0%
FCF $ 43 $ 30 -31% $ 23 $ 10 -58% $ 106 $ 43 -59% $ 398 $ 246 -38%
Adj. EBITDA $ 104 $ 104 0% $ 277 $ 278 0% $ 337 $ 288 -15% $ 523 $ 377 -28%
Adj EBITDA Margin 12.2% 11.7% -4% 9.8% 9.7% -1% 9.8% 8.8% -10% 12.7% 10.1% -20%
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Exhibit 32: RBLX - GS Estimates vs. Consensus
$mm, except per share data
Q4 '22 2023 2024
% GS vs. % GS vs. % GS vs.
GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons GS Est Cons Est Cons
GAAP Revenue $ 571 $ 661 -14% $ 2,637 $ 2,664 -1% $ 3,006 $ 3,074 -2%
Total Bookings $ 890 $ 862 3% $ 3,276 $ 3,292 0% $ 3,738 $ 3,807 -2%
DAUs 59 n/a n/a 63 n/a n/a 71 n/a n/a
Bookings per DAU $ 15.07 n/a n/a $ 51.60 n/a n/a $ 52.87 n/a n/a
Adj. Gross Profit $ 686 $ 656 4% $ 2,539 $ 2,539 0% $ 2,898 $ 2,961 -2%
Gross Margin 77.0% 76.2% 1% 77.5% 77.1% 0% 77.5% 77.8% 0%
FCF $ 30 $ 13 133% $ 43 $ (6) n/a $ 246 $ 206 20%
Adj. EBITDA $ 104 $ 90 16% $ 288 $ 242 19% $ 377 $ 357 5%
Adj EBITDA Margin 11.7% 10.5% 12% 8.8% 7.3% 20% 10.1% 9.4% 7%
Our 12-month $19 PT (from $24) is based on an equal-blend of: (1) EV/Bookings applied
to our 2024 (from 2023) estimates and; (2) a modified DCF using an EV/FCF-SBC
multiple applied to our 2027 (from 2026) estimates discounted back 3 years.
18 January 2023 21
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
estimates.
n 40.0x EV/FCF-SBC multiple (unchanged) applied to our 2027 estimates discounted
back 3 years at 12%. The discount rate represents CAPM using the blended average
of companies within our coverage universe consisting of: (1) 3% risk free rate
(based on the normalized 10-year rate); (2) average beta of ~1.3; (3) equity risk
premium of 7%.
Key Risks: higher than expected engagement and monetization on the platform;
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
potentially higher ARPDAU as a result of Roblox paying out more to developers and
attracting developers at a higher clip with more of them focusing on older demographic;
& greater than expected operating leverage on R&D and spend on trust and safety
driving higher EBITDA margins.
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) - Maintain Buy Rating; Increase PT to $155 (from
$150)
We slightly revise our topline assumptions down to account for Grand Theft Auto
weakness during the quarter. In addition, we downwardly revise our assumptions
around gross margin (as FY24 will have a full year of contribution from the Zynga
acquisition which has a lower margin profile) as well as higher opex assumptions as
TTWO navigates balancing investments for the long-term with current economic
volatility.
18 January 2023 22
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Exhibit 34: TTWO Estimate Changes: FQ3’23, FY23, FY24 and FY25
$mm, except per share data
3FQ23 2023 2024 2025
Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
Net Bookings $ 1,454 $ 1,438 -1% $ 5,489 $ 5,419 -1% $ 7,100 $ 6,926 -2% $ 8,380 $ 8,204 -2%
Non-GAAP Gross Profit $ 926 $ 915 -1% $ 3,508 $ 3,465 -1% $ 4,544 $ 4,357 -4% $ 5,163 $ 5,046 -2%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin 63.7% 63.7% 0% 63.9% 63.9% 0% 64.0% 62.9% -2% 61.6% 61.5% 0%
Non-GAAP EBIT $ 212 $ 210 -1% $ 912 $ 900 -1% $ 1,555 $ 1,185 -24% $ 2,033 $ 1,742 -14%
Non-GAAP EBIT Margin 14.6% 14.6% 0% 16.6% 16.6% 0% 21.9% 17.1% -22% 24.3% 21.2% -12%
Adj. EBITDA $ 234 $ 231 -1% $ 974 $ 962 -1% $ 1,648 $ 1,286 -22% $ 2,130 $ 1,850 -13%
Adj. EBITDA Margin 16.1% 16.1% 0% 17.7% 17.8% 0% 23.2% 18.6% -20% 25.4% 22.5% -11%
FCF $ 330 $ 329 0% $ 501 $ 499 0% $ 1,268 $ 802 -37% $ 1,622 $ 1,292 -20%
Non-GAAP EPS $ 0.88 $ 0.87 -1% $ 4.06 $ 4.00 -1% $ 6.99 $ 5.21 -25% $ 9.37 $ 7.99 -15%
Net Bookings $ 1,438 $ 1,469 -2% $ 5,419 $ 5,488 -1% $ 6,926 $ 6,952 0%
Non-GAAP Gross Profit $ 915 $ 944 -3% $ 3,465 $ 3,500 -1% $ 4,357 $ 4,506 -3%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin 63.7% 64.2% -1% 63.9% 63.8% 0% 62.9% 64.8% -3%
Non-GAAP EBIT $ 210 $ 224 -6% $ 900 $ 909 -1% $ 1,185 $ 1,532 -23%
Non-GAAP EBIT Margin 14.6% 15.2% -4% 16.6% 16.6% 0% 17.1% 22.0% -22%
Adj. EBITDA $ 231 $ 246 -6% $ 962 $ 986 -2% $ 1,286 $ 1,501 -14%
Adj. EBITDA Margin 16.1% 16.7% -4% 17.8% 18.0% -1% 18.6% 21.6% -14%
FCF $ 329 $ 347 -5% $ 499 $ 520 -4% $ 802 $ 905 -11%
Non-GAAP EPS $ 0.87 $ 0.90 -3% $ 4.00 $ 3.99 0% $ 5.21 $ 6.42 -19%
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet, Visible Alpha Consensus Data
Our $155 12-month target price (from $150) is based on a 30x EV/FCF-SBC multiple
(unchanged) applied to our FY25 (from FY24) estimates.
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Valuation $ 69 $ 155 $ 198
% upside/downside -34% 48% 89%
FCF-SBC (FY24E) $ 138 $ 444 $ 381
Margin 2.0% 6.4% 5.5%
FCF-SBC (FY25E) $ 638 $ 918 $ 997
Margin 8.0% 11.5% 12.5%
EV / 2025 FCF-SBC 20.0x 30.0x 35.0x
FCF-SBC CAGR ('23-'25) 87% 124% 133%
EV / FCF-SBC to Growth 0.23x 0.24x 0.26x
Enterprise Value $ 12,762 $ 27,529 $ 34,897
Implied ratios:
EV/2025 FCF 9.9x 21.3x 27.0x
P/2025 EPS 8.6x 19.4x 24.8x
Capital Structure Adjustments
Adjusted Net Debt - 2024E $ 904 $ 904 $ 904
Shares Outstanding - 2024E 171 171 171
Key Risks: Engagement and user growth; Lower units and live services sales for key
titles and lower receptivity to new games; slower than expected growth in the newly
expanded mobile segment; Slower integration with recent acquisitions (namely, Zynga)
and possible game release delays &/or core franchise decay; potential loss of licensing
agreements for key IP & heightened government regulation; Increased competition in
the console and mobile markets; Current macroeconomic headwinds sustain and/or are
18 January 2023 23
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
more severe than expected; TTWO is also exposed to the volatility caused by investors’
risk appetite for growth stocks.
Exhibit 37: APP Estimate Changes: Q4’22, 2022, 2023 and 2024
$mm, except per share data
Q4 2022 2022 2023 2024
Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
Total Revenue $ 688 $ 687 0% $ 2,802 $ 2,801 0% $ 2,806 $ 2,805 0% $ 3,222 $ 3,146 -2%
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
Software Revenue $ 332 $ 304 -8% $ 1,075 $ 1,047 -3% $ 1,369 $ 1,338 -2% $ 1,727 $ 1,613 -7%
Enterprise Client 573 563 -2% 573 563 -2% 613 603 -2% 653 643 -2%
Revenue per SPEC $ 1,895 $ 1,879 -1% $ 1,895 $ 1,879 -1% $ 1,990 $ 1,973 -1% $ 2,388 $ 2,249 -6%
Apps Revenue $ 355 $ 383 8% $ 1,727 $ 1,755 2% $ 1,438 $ 1,466 2% $ 1,495 $ 1,532 2%
Non-GAAP Gross Profit $ 532 $ 531 0% $ 2,129 $ 2,111 -1% $ 2,172 $ 2,153 -1% $ 2,526 $ 2,446 -3%
Gross Margin 77.3% 77.3% 0bps 76.0% 75.4% -61bps 77.4% 76.8% -63bps 78.4% 77.8% -65bps
Adj. EBITDA $ 246 $ 254 3% $ 1,050 $ 1,057 1% $ 1,134 $ 1,100 -3% $ 1,426 $ 1,327 -7%
Adj EBITDA Margin 35.8% 37.0% 114bps 37.5% 37.7% 28bps 40.4% 39.2% -118bps 44.3% 42.2% -209bps
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Adj. EBITDA $ 254 $ 259 -2% $ 1,100 $ 1,073 3% $ 1,327 $ 1,222 9%
Adj EBITDA Margin 37.0% 37.5% -1% 39.2% 38.3% 2% 42.2% 39.0% 8%
Our $21 12-month price target (from $33 prior) is based on an equal blend of (1)
EV/Sales applied to our 2024 estimates (from 2023) and (2) a modified DCF using
EV/GAAP EBITDA multiple applied to our 2027 estimates (from 2026) discounted back 3
years. Specifically:
n 2.5x EV/Sales (from 5.0x) applied to our updated 2024 estimates. Our use of 2.5x
EV/Sales multiple compares to its comp set 5-year historical +/- 1 std dev. trading
range of 1.2-5.4x. We modestly lower our EV/sales multiple to slightly below the
midpoint of the range given increased concern around AppLovin’s growth trajectory
into 2023 as the broader macro environment and IDFA headwinds weigh on
AppLovin’s end demand market.
n 10x EV/GAAP EBITDA (from 12.0x) applied to our 2027 estimates discounted back 3
years at 12%. We downwardly revise the multiple given the macro environment and
IDFA headwinds weighing on AppLovin’s end demand market. Our use of a lower
multiple is also applied to modestly lower forward operating assumptions in
18 January 2023 24
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
out-years. The discount rate represents CAPM using the blended average of
companies within our coverage universe consisting of: (1) 3% risk free rate (based
on the normalized 10-year rate); (2) average beta of ~1.3; (3) equity risk premium of
7%.
Key Risks: Changes to data privacy and regulation impacting effectiveness of ad tech
solutions; any changes to technical requirements or policies governing the Apple App
Store or Google Play Store; competitors have significant resources with well-established
brands (i.e., Facebook Audience Network, etc.); & Apple’s Private Relay service might
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
cause incremental headwinds with more stringent rules as it relates to on devise
fingerprinting.
18 January 2023 25
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Exhibit 40: PLTK Estimate Changes: Q4’22, 2022, 2023 and 2024
$mm, except per share data
Q4 2022 2022 2023 2024
Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
Total Revenue $ 634 $ 624 -2% $ 2,619 $ 2,608 0% $ 2,766 $ 2,661 -4% $ 2,922 $ 2,822 -3%
In-App Purchases $ 615 $ 605 -2% $ 2,542 $ 2,531 0% $ 2,687 $ 2,585 -4% $ 2,840 $ 2,742 -3%
DPUs (000s) 315 310 -2% 315 313 0% 329 316 -4% 346 332 -4%
DPUs (mm) 8.9 8.6 -3% 9 9 -1% 9 8 -7% 9 8 -7%
Conversion rate 3.6% 3.6% 1% 3.3% 3.3% 0% 3.8% 3.9% 3% 4.0% 4.1% 4%
Revenue per DPU $ 21 $ 21 0% $ 22 $ 22 0% $ 22 $ 22 0% $ 23 $ 23 0%
Advertising Revenue $ 19 $ 19 -1% $ 77 $ 77 0% $ 79 $ 76 -4% $ 81 $ 80 -2%
GAAP Gross Profit $ 456 $ 449 -2% $ 1,886 $ 1,878 0% $ 1,995 $ 1,919 -4% $ 2,110 $ 2,037 -3%
Gross Margin 72% 72% 0% 72% 72% 0% 72% 72% 0% 72% 72% 0%
GAAP Operating Income $ 114 $ 112 -2% $ 457 $ 455 0% $ 531 $ 501 -6% $ 612 $ 576 -6%
Operating Margin 18% 18% 0% 17% 17% 0% 19% 19% -2% 21% 20% -3%
ADJ. EBITDA $ 217 $ 214 -1% $ 907 $ 904 0% $ 961 $ 933 -3% $ 1,045 $ 1,027 -2%
Adj. EBITDA Margin 34% 34% 0% 35% 35% 0% 35% 35% 1% 36% 36% 2%
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
n Fundamental: 17.0x EV/FCF-SBC multiple (from 22.5x) applied to our FY24 (from
FY23) FCF-SBC estimate. We lower our EV/FCF-SBC multiple to 17x which implies
12x EV/FCF (compared to its comp set historical trading range of 12-20x) to reflect
continued IDFA pressure and weaker consumer spend.
n M&A: 2.5x EV/Revenue multiple (from 3.5x) applied to our FY24 (from FY23)
estimates. We lower the absolute EV/Revenue multiple to reflect the midpoint of
smaller and private mobile gaming studios transactions in the ~2-3x EV/sales range,
as the gap between public and private valuations starts to narrow.
18 January 2023 26
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
M&A Valuation
Valuation $ 15
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
% upside/downside 60%
Revenue (FY24) $ 2,822
Adjustment -
Target multiple 2.5x
Revenue CAGR ('22-'24) 4%
EV/Sales-to-growth 0.62x
Enterprise Value $ 7,054
Weightings
Fundamental 100% 85% 100%
M&A 0% 15% 0%
12 month PT $ 7 $ 15 $ 21
% upside/downside -27% 56% 118%
Key Risks: Game launches, as Playtika has a limited track record of launching new
games which could indicate a greater level of execution risk, which could create
meaningful upside or downside to our current operating estimates; User acquisition
costs, as Apple’s changes to IDFA has resulted in limited visibility in mobile game
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
publishers’ ability to target high lifetime value users, and a improvement/worsening in
those headwinds would be a source of upside/downside; Competition, as new forms of
entertainment become available and as AAA publishers continue to release mobile
versions of key IP, but with potential upside should competitive intensity decline;
Ownership structure, which could result in heightened regulatory scrutiny, particularly
for future acquisitions or investments in U.S. businesses.
18 January 2023 27
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Exhibit 43: UBI Estimate Changes: 2H23, FY23, FY24, & FY25
€mm, except per share data
2H23E 2023 2024 2025
Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
Net Bookings (Non-IFRS) € 1,644 € 1,194 -27% € 2,344 € 1,893 -19% € 2,645 € 2,082 -21% € 2,821 € 2,223 -21%
Non-IFRS GP € 1,446 € 1,042 -28% € 2,064 € 1,660 -20% € 2,320 € 1,831 -21% € 2,466 € 1,958 -21%
Gross Margin 88% 86.8% -83bps 88.0% 87.6% -42bps 87.7% 87.9% 21bps 87.4% 88.1% 66bps
Non-IFRS EBIT € 542 (€ 367) n.a € 403 (€ 506) n.a € 546 € 369 -32% € 599 € 414 -31%
Non-IFRS EBIT Margin 32.9% -30.8% -6372bps 17.2% -26.7% -4393bps 20.6% 17.7% -289bps 21.2% 18.6% -258bps
IFRS EPS € 2.09 (€ 4.98) n.a € 0.60 (€ 6.67) n.a € 1.74 € 1.12 -36% € 2.00 € 1.38 -31%
Adj. EPS € 2.85 (€ 3.83) n.a € 2.05 (€ 4.85) n.a € 2.85 € 1.86 -35% € 3.09 € 2.08 -33%
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet, Visible Alpha Consensus Data
Our €22 12-month PT (from €37) is based on a blended fundamental (85% weight)/M&A
(15% weight) valuation methodology, specifically:
n Fundamental: 16x EV/IFRS EPS multiple (from 20.0x) applied to our FY25 (from
FY24) EPS estimate. Over the past ~15 years, AAA gaming publishers have traded in
a +/-1 standard deviation range of 18-32x on GAAP/IFRS PE (or 25x on average) with
UBI trading at 14-32x (or 23x on average). Given UBI’s execution risk and uncertainty
around titles coming to market (with management recently canceling 3
unannounced projects in addition to the 4 already announced in July 2022), we
lower our FY23 EV/IFRS EPS multiple towards the lower end of Ubisoft’s historical
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
trading range.
n M&A: 19x EV/Adj EBITDA multiple (unchanged) applied to our FY25 (from FY24)
estimates.
18 January 2023 28
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
M&A Valuation
Adj. EBITDA (FY25) € 204
Adj. EBITDA Margin 9%
Target multiple 19.0x
Enterprise Value € 3,877
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
Weightings
Fundamental 100% 85% 100%
M&A 0% 15% 0%
12 month PT € 15 € 22 € 31
% upside/downside -26% 8% 53%
Key Risks: Execution on forward pipeline, where game delays, monetization levels or
better/worse execution could meaningfully impact our operating estimates; International
scale and levels of competition, where Ubisoft historically operated within a heightened
competitive environment – should competitive intensity increase then Ubisoft’s games
could see its user base and time spent in games shift to other games/platforms;
Employee productivity levels, as compared to its peers, Ubisoft’s developer headcount is
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
substantially higher (resulting in an overall lower margin profile) and changes in the pace
of hiring could create upside to margins (& conversely an area of downside if Ubisoft
continues to hire at historical levels).
18 January 2023 29
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Our $22 12-month price target (from $20) is based on a blend of fundamental (85%
weight)/M&A (15% weight) valuation methodology, specifically:
M&A Valuation
Revenue (FY24) $ 742
Adjustment -
Target multiple 2.5x
Revenue CAGR ('22-'24) 6%
EV/Sales-to-growth 0.45x
Enterprise Value $ 1,854
Less net debt $ (468)
Equity Value $ 2,322
Shares 128
M&A Value $ 18
Weightings
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Fundamental 100% 85% 100%
M&A 0% 15% 0%
Implied Valuation $ 9 $ 22 $ 30
% upside/downside -44% 37% 87%
Key Risks: Game launches: SciPlay has a limited track record of launching new casual
games which could indicate a greater level of execution risk; User acquisition costs:
Over the past year, Apple’s changes to IDFA has resulted in limited visibility in mobile
game publishers’ ability to target high lifetime value users, therefore resulting in
near-term headwinds; Competition: As new forms of entertainment become available
and as AAA publishers continue to release mobile versions of key IP, SciPlay could
experience lower engagement in existing games; SciPlay’s ownership structure: SciPlay
is currently controlled by Scientific Games; SciPlay remains exposed to the volatility
caused by the global macroeconomic environment & investor risk appetite for growth
stocks.
18 January 2023 30
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Disclosure Appendix
Reg AC
We, Eric Sheridan, Lane Czura, Pierre Riopel and Sarah Boulos, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our
personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research division.
GS Factor Profile
The Goldman Sachs Factor Profile provides investment context for a stock by comparing key attributes to the market (i.e. our coverage universe) and its
sector peers. The four key attributes depicted are: Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple (e.g. valuation) and Integrated (a composite of Growth, Financial
Returns and Multiple). Growth, Financial Returns and Multiple are calculated by using normalized ranks for specific metrics for each stock. The
normalized ranks for the metrics are then averaged and converted into percentiles for the relevant attribute. The precise calculation of each metric may
vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region, but the standard approach is as follows:
Growth is based on a stock’s forward-looking sales growth, EBITDA growth and EPS growth (for financial stocks, only EPS and sales growth), with a
higher percentile indicating a higher growth company. Financial Returns is based on a stock’s forward-looking ROE, ROCE and CROCI (for financial
stocks, only ROE), with a higher percentile indicating a company with higher financial returns. Multiple is based on a stock’s forward-looking P/E, P/B,
price/dividend (P/D), EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF and EV/Debt Adjusted Cash Flow (DACF) (for financial stocks, only P/E, P/B and P/D), with a higher percentile
indicating a stock trading at a higher multiple. The Integrated percentile is calculated as the average of the Growth percentile, Financial Returns
percentile and (100% - Multiple percentile).
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
Financial Returns and Multiple use the Goldman Sachs analyst forecasts at the fiscal year-end at least three quarters in the future. Growth uses inputs
for the fiscal year at least seven quarters in the future compared with the year at least three quarters in the future (on a per-share basis for all metrics).
For a more detailed description of how we calculate the GS Factor Profile, please contact your GS representative.
M&A Rank
Across our global coverage, we examine stocks using an M&A framework, considering both qualitative factors and quantitative factors (which may vary
across sectors and regions) to incorporate the potential that certain companies could be acquired. We then assign a M&A rank as a means of scoring
companies under our rated coverage from 1 to 3, with 1 representing high (30%-50%) probability of the company becoming an acquisition target, 2
representing medium (15%-30%) probability and 3 representing low (0%-15%) probability. For companies ranked 1 or 2, in line with our standard
departmental guidelines we incorporate an M&A component into our target price. M&A rank of 3 is considered immaterial and therefore does not
factor into our price target, and may or may not be discussed in research.
Quantum
Quantum is Goldman Sachs’ proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for
in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets.
Disclosures
The rating(s) for AppLovin Corp., Electronic Arts Inc., Playtika, Roblox, Sciplay Corp., Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. and Ubisoft
Entertainment SA is/are relative to the other companies in its/their coverage universe: ACV Auctions Inc., ANGI Homeservices Inc., Activision
Blizzard Inc., Airbnb Inc., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., AppLovin Corp., Bird Global Inc., Booking Holdings Inc., Bumble Inc., Chegg Inc., Chewy Inc.,
Coursera Inc., DoorDash Inc., DoubleVerify Inc., Duolingo Inc., Electronic Arts Inc., Etsy Inc., Expedia Group, Fiverr International Ltd., Frontdoor Inc.,
GoodRx Holdings Inc., Groupon Inc., IAC/InterActiveCorp, Lyft Inc., Match Group, Meta Platforms Inc., Nerdy Inc., Netflix Inc., Nextdoor Holdings,
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
Peloton Interactive Inc., Pinterest Inc., Playtika, Rent the Runway Inc., Roblox, Rover Group, Sciplay Corp., Snap Inc., Spotify Technology S.A., Take-Two
Interactive Software Inc., ThredUP Inc., Uber Technologies Inc., Ubisoft Entertainment SA, Upwork Inc., Vacasa Inc., Wayfair Inc., Xometry Inc., Yelp
Inc., ZipRecruiter Inc., eBay Inc.
As of January 1, 2023, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,201 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks
as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for
the purposes of the above disclosure required by the FINRA Rules. See ‘Ratings, Coverage universe and related definitions’ below. The Investment
Banking Relationships chart reflects the percentage of subject companies within each rating category for whom Goldman Sachs has provided
investment banking services within the previous twelve months.
18 January 2023 31
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
Regulatory disclosures
Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations
See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or
co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co-managed
public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs trades or may trade as a
principal in debt securities (or in related derivatives) of issuers discussed in this report.
The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts,
professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst’s area of coverage.
Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst
as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from
serving as an officer, director or advisor of any company in the analyst’s area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be
associated persons of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 or FINRA Rule 2242 restrictions on
communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts.
Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in
prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs
website at https://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States
The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and
regulations. Australia: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd and its affiliates are not authorised deposit-taking institutions (as that term is defined in the
Banking Act 1959 (Cth)) in Australia and do not provide banking services, nor carry on a banking business, in Australia. This research, and any access to
it, is intended only for “wholesale clients” within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. In
For the exclusive use of JONATHAN.SU@CELADONPARTNERS.COM
producing research reports, members of the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs Australia may attend site visits and other
meetings hosted by the companies and other entities which are the subject of its research reports. In some instances the costs of such site visits or
meetings may be met in part or in whole by the issuers concerned if Goldman Sachs Australia considers it is appropriate and reasonable in the specific
circumstances relating to the site visit or meeting. To the extent that the contents of this document contains any financial product advice, it is general
advice only and has been prepared by Goldman Sachs without taking into account a client’s objectives, financial situation or needs. A client should,
before acting on any such advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to the client’s own objectives, financial situation and needs.
A copy of certain Goldman Sachs Australia and New Zealand disclosure of interests and a copy of Goldman Sachs’ Australian Sell-Side Research
Independence Policy Statement are available at: https://www.goldmansachs.com/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html. Brazil: Disclosure
information in relation to CVM Resolution n. 20 is available at https://www.gs.com/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html. Where applicable, the
Brazil-registered analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, as defined in Article 20 of CVM Resolution n. 20, is the first author
named at the beginning of this report, unless indicated otherwise at the end of the text. Canada: This information is being provided to you for
information purposes only and is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, an advertisement, offering or solicitation by Goldman Sachs
& Co. LLC for purchasers of securities in Canada to trade in any Canadian security. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC is not registered as a dealer in any
jurisdiction in Canada under applicable Canadian securities laws and generally is not permitted to trade in Canadian securities and may be prohibited
from selling certain securities and products in certain jurisdictions in Canada. If you wish to trade in any Canadian securities or other products in
Canada please contact Goldman Sachs Canada Inc., an affiliate of The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., or another registered Canadian dealer. Hong Kong:
Further information on the securities of covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
India: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (India) Securities
Private Limited, Research Analyst - SEBI Registration Number INH000001493, 951-A, Rational House, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai
400 025, India, Corporate Identity Number U74140MH2006FTC160634, Phone +91 22 6616 9000, Fax +91 22 6616 9001. Goldman Sachs may
beneficially own 1% or more of the securities (as such term is defined in clause 2 (h) the Indian Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956) of the
subject company or companies referred to in this research report. Japan: See below. Korea: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for
“professional investors” within the meaning of the Financial Services and Capital Markets Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. Further
information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. New
Zealand: Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited and its affiliates are neither “registered banks” nor “deposit takers” (as defined in the Reserve Bank of
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
New Zealand Act 1989) in New Zealand. This research, and any access to it, is intended for “wholesale clients” (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act
2008) unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. A copy of certain Goldman Sachs Australia and New Zealand disclosure of interests is available at:
https://www.goldmansachs.com/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html. Russia: Research reports distributed in the Russian Federation are not
advertising as defined in the Russian legislation, but are information and analysis not having product promotion as their main purpose and do not
provide appraisal within the meaning of the Russian legislation on appraisal activity. Research reports do not constitute a personalized investment
recommendation as defined in Russian laws and regulations, are not addressed to a specific client, and are prepared without analyzing the financial
circumstances, investment profiles or risk profiles of clients. Goldman Sachs assumes no responsibility for any investment decisions that may be taken
by a client or any other person based on this research report. Singapore: Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W), which is
regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, accepts legal responsibility for this research, and should be contacted with respect to any matters
arising from, or in connection with, this research. Taiwan: This material is for reference only and must not be reprinted without permission. Investors
should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. United Kingdom: Persons who
would be categorized as retail clients in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority, should read this
research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have
been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are
available from Goldman Sachs International on request.
European Union and United Kingdom: Disclosure information in relation to Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Delegated Regulation (EU)
(2016/958) supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council (including as that Delegated Regulation is
implemented into United Kingdom domestic law and regulation following the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union and the European
Economic Area) with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment
recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of
conflicts of interest is available at https://www.gs.com/disclosures/europeanpolicy.html which states the European Policy for Managing Conflicts of
Interest in Connection with Investment Research.
Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau under registration number Kinsho
69, and a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association, Financial Futures Association of Japan and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.
Sales and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus consumption tax. See company-specific disclosures as to
any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance
Company.
18 January 2023 32
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs on a global basis.
Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics,
currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 21 006 797 897); in
Brazil by Goldman Sachs do Brasil Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A.; Public Communication Channel Goldman Sachs Brazil: 0800 727 5764
and / or contatogoldmanbrasil@gs.com. Available Weekdays (except holidays), from 9am to 6pm. Canal de Comunicação com o Público Goldman Sachs
Brasil: 0800 727 5764 e/ou contatogoldmanbrasil@gs.com. Horário de funcionamento: segunda-feira à sexta-feira (exceto feriados), das 9h às 18h; in
Canada by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd.; in Japan
by Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs New
Zealand Limited; in Russia by OOO Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the
United States of America by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in
the United Kingdom.
Effective from the date of the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union and the European Economic Area (“Brexit Day”) the following
information with respect to distributing entities will apply:
Goldman Sachs International (“GSI”), authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority (“PRA”) and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority
(“FCA”) and the PRA, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom.
European Economic Area: GSI, authorised by the PRA and regulated by the FCA and the PRA, disseminates research in the following jurisdictions
within the European Economic Area: the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, Italy, the Kingdom of Belgium, the Kingdom of Denmark, the Kingdom of
Norway, the Republic of Finland, the Republic of Cyprus and the Republic of Ireland; GS -Succursale de Paris (Paris branch) which, from Brexit Day, will
be authorised by the French Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de resolution (“ACPR”) and regulated by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de
resolution and the Autorité des marches financiers (“AMF”) disseminates research in France; GSI - Sucursal en España (Madrid branch) authorized in
Spain by the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores disseminates research in the Kingdom of Spain; GSI - Sweden Bankfilial (Stockholm branch) is
authorized by the SFSA as a “third country branch” in accordance with Chapter 4, Section 4 of the Swedish Securities and Market Act (Sw. lag
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
(2007:528) om värdepappersmarknaden) disseminates research in the Kingdom of Sweden; Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE (“GSBE”) is a credit
institution incorporated in Germany and, within the Single Supervisory Mechanism, subject to direct prudential supervision by the European Central
Bank and in other respects supervised by German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, BaFin) and
Deutsche Bundesbank and disseminates research in the Federal Republic of Germany and those jurisdictions within the European Economic Area
where GSI is not authorised to disseminate research and additionally, GSBE, Copenhagen Branch filial af GSBE, Tyskland, supervised by the Danish
Financial Authority disseminates research in the Kingdom of Denmark; GSBE - Sucursal en España (Madrid branch) subject (to a limited extent) to local
supervision by the Bank of Spain disseminates research in the Kingdom of Spain; GSBE - Succursale Italia (Milan branch) to the relevant applicable
extent, subject to local supervision by the Bank of Italy (Banca d’Italia) and the Italian Companies and Exchange Commission (Commissione Nazionale
per le Società e la Borsa “Consob”) disseminates research in Italy; GSBE - Succursale de Paris (Paris branch), supervised by the AMF and by the ACPR
disseminates research in France; and GSBE - Sweden Bankfilial (Stockholm branch), to a limited extent, subject to local supervision by the Swedish
Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinpektionen) disseminates research in the Kingdom of Sweden.
General disclosures
This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we
consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates and
forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as
appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority
of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst’s judgment.
Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment
banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division.
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, the United States broker dealer, is a member of SIPC (https://www.sipc.org).
Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and principal
trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, principal trading desks and
investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research.
The analysts named in this report may have from time to time discussed with our clients, including Goldman Sachs salespersons and traders, or may
discuss in this report, trading strategies that reference catalysts or events that may have a near-term impact on the market price of the equity securities
discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analyst’s published price target expectations for such stocks. Any such
trading strategies are distinct from and do not affect the analyst’s fundamental equity rating for such stocks, which rating reflects a stock’s return
18 January 2023 33
Goldman Sachs Americas Technology: Internet
individual preferences as to the frequency and manner of receiving communication, your risk profile and investment focus and perspective (e.g.,
marketwide, sector specific, long term, short term), the size and scope of your overall client relationship with GS, and legal and regulatory constraints.
As an example, certain clients may request to receive notifications when research on specific securities is published, and certain clients may request
that specific data underlying analysts’ fundamental analysis available on our internal client websites be delivered to them electronically through data
feeds or otherwise. No change to an analyst’s fundamental research views (e.g., ratings, price targets, or material changes to earnings estimates for
equity securities), will be communicated to any client prior to inclusion of such information in a research report broadly disseminated through electronic
publication to our internal client websites or through other means, as necessary, to all clients who are entitled to receive such reports.
All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Not all
research content is redistributed to our clients or available to third-party aggregators, nor is Goldman Sachs responsible for the redistribution of our
research by third party aggregators. For research, models or other data related to one or more securities, markets or asset classes (including related
services) that may be available to you, please contact your GS representative or go to https://research.gs.com.
Disclosure information is also available at https://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html or from Research Compliance, 200 West Street, New York, NY
10282.
© 2023 Goldman Sachs.
No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written
consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
abf1713081cf4bd28921692cb124a462
18 January 2023 34