Rackunc

Prawdopodab
22 10
. .
20 23
.

·
za popmeduio
ex
-

nause zechrode .

zdanei

-socgli's
one my
riac
S

podst .
morcle
I
I
I model P
when karyca
presfrei
.

probabylist
mich
.
Mana
vic el
desic
model
geometry
T
-

my
ortatio byto o
prewdopodobierstme jego ,

waswosciach
(Hew
ovar
definig" pradopod
o
.

definigi desjometycnej) .

model
Byta mora let
dosycznym
o

pravdopodobienstwa .

Pryposuming :

prectmen

I
=
10 , probabylistyane
D b
F
,
Pe
I - prowidopodob
or
- o ciaio zoa-
.

e
Kore put
presti (signna) ne

fanlig' ,

elementarnych
Ac ject entine zola -

e
zdauerie naviom
cyli
dosmiadcenicwyrikow =>
Ac prypise
losoreg liaby pueoh ~

20
.

, 1]
p 5-> [0
1]
:

is TCA) prod
Klasysaym modell
-

zolculia A
prawdopodobiestra ebidr &
jet doczomy = 22-wisyst die .
=

podzloi ory & is zane niaui .

9 (A) = *
linba el .
26 A .

e
modelwungt Seby spis
Teu
 Geometrycug
model
pradapodabierta .

Many wim
2 do nieria
stedy goly prestria
,

·enters utosomicz
S

jalein's podebieren
&

stavic
I my
Iporagdmym) prosty lab
pasecsyamy ogolui
lab

Pretmeui RM
(urgemarone pr euhlidesowej) .
.

Winches sprse okeslone

Mothe
rotwatyd most

provolopoobicristo :

P(A)= gole :
x - miara Lebergue with

[Lebego]
Cayli
o
pole power de i

paypaollur pianzaymy ,

bjgfos puyp prest

R3
3-merWIR"
i
& nee
.

arowe ,

oolzig -mywei
·

aroua
objstos's .

zdanzen
tyme preypadke
is roozine I
nie skiadad
mote
sie ze
saystkich
podebiord prestmen e, lece
polguiez Lych ,
de
Korych to x (A) ist
nije .

payluad : Aniai Basic chag sig spotkec i

mich
ums
sonym micscn Katdez .

Prycrodi morencie me nice

spotkeria w

14
losougen misdy goding
16 i koletanke
i selve we
,

wit 15 min
wie
dinte
⑱; .

Jalie I it
prawoopodobienist wo ,
de

dojolie do
spotkavia ?
 Ami
Niech = [14 16] moment
pryiscia
-

↳Be [14, 16] Basi

-
- -

(tA , tB)
Iyuik exspengue. losowego
to
masego
.

& =

< (ta +B)

,
:
A , ti = [14 , 1673=
=

[14 , 16] = [14 , 16]

Ten sti motme sowas' :
mery
ti B

I
"-
I
Mu 16
i
13
kwadmat
o

+A
prassay my
boku 2

polu x()
=
2 2
.
=
=

Dla
htoege danc mic A (podation
sbione i pole)
unegrega
:

P(A)
1 PA)
=

4
Intereste was ederzenie A
,
e
te do
je
polegaisc Mage
 Do
dojoue goly
spotkania ,
:

eng
Basic
·

10 tB=[tA ta 4) +

pierime
pay ,
Lut
- D
Ania
pierane
20 -A =
[tB , +
+

]
pryiscie cresnic
Tapie sis
-
3
peoluo
mytsze prypade
~

Mothe to
podsumovac :

1
ti
-

+Al <
Cayli maste dancuie A to ,

A G(t A , +B) c
↳ c
=
:

tr ti ta let
Gotta
0
und
A-t -2) +

bx +A
--
+B + B =

It
/ - (tA ti)
,
< 12 : to th
2
ItA -

tB1- ,
Nanysyry : Eat*A
tart
=

top
W

16

m .................. II
-
-

it
B
*
A

Illittl ..........
↑

in -
-
-- -

14
16
->
ta
 PoleA 15
P(A) = = -
4
-

P/j =

Eah = =c

it
1
b
P 16 14)
=

= a .

-
- =

Pa +

24 y =

1 4 +

25
- =
is +
= -

is

P(A) =
2
) I =

=
15
~O 234
4 ,

drick
prykiad tamieny patyk no
:

losomych wiecach ,
do states try
kawaki
Jalic jest precodopodob
·
.

te
fragmentsw tych
2 more

: ?
zoty trijkgt
10
D
tee-
1
&
ztabich kawa
2 wie
=
nee How
trojkgta
by die
Niech
diego's patyke mymosi 1 .

x ,
y
& (0 1)
,
-

punkty protamania
patyene
x +

y
·
0 1 X
R
x(v2) pole()
=

Partist enginee
cieulie
1 -
=

1 =
1
=

r =

G(x, y) : x
,
yz(0 ,
1) ,
x
y)
kwadmet
atwanty(bez Bregdr)
bez
prekgtme (x
;

y)
over =

b
cy0xz digosciomi
a
, ,
bokon

jaliego's trijkgta (E) a +

b >
Na2

b +
C &
van

c +

a)b

drie unotlino's ci!

Many
N 0x x <
y<1
a
et
-
inI

adite
0 1

· ⑧
(y z)
x >1
y )yx
+ -
-

adde y)) c x
(y
-

x) +
(1 -

x 3

e I
(1 y) x)y x c
>y xx
- =
+ - -
 < 1
⑳0<y x

Nanaulei :
wtedly anelogicie

0
+
:
y
x -

y(z
A =

((x y)E ,
: te
wizystlie warumlei
,
agli
no

A ay x()
-

zay zax y[I)3

-[ +

-x
=

!---------
y
y 1- ---------- ↑

I in
V-
,

--- = y
z

- ↑
~

..

I
~ ~
2 - - -- X

I 1

k
P(A) =

() =
=

1 =
0 25
,
 docrytas
metody)
Stanistan Man i
sobie
Monte Carlo .

problemy
sko mplikowaue gobie righte policy ceits ,
,
:

metod losovenia
vowigzu Sie
pany usyciu

Prawolopodobieustwo warumhose
i colanenia viezaletive .

Ai B to colomena
det .

zaistmy ,
te

(A , B el,
golue jest (2 F
, ,
P)
.

prectmenis probabilistycing) .

Jesli P(B) >0

to
licebs ,

P(A/B)
PAB
=

maxywaydoa birt
e

ener
201
zeiscia zoanenia B .

as
kasycanym model prewolopodobierstma :

P(A(B) =

A =I
By =
i
geometry canym :

P(A(B) =
=

/ is
 2

A
B

P(A/B) moni
jake osic
A
20 mape

Golybys my elperyment lo
sory
more
well
or

powtomyli b . witle
rasy P(A(B) monimyI
jalie agici kingch
; eluperyment ow
~ e
,

zesto is cossto tee A .

pryliad Kostka Niech A zoenenie

Raucony
: .

polegapace me

rzystemic panyliliaby
ouck B colament
.

pol me ezyk .

interact scrch 121

rejuni 6
=

co

1
.

I
P(AB) =

I =
Pain ,

$(94 , 5,
4 S3)
64)
=

3/6 ⑧
=I
zolette

-It thech sack

pryluad :

,
als Bo
mejim
1 P(A1B) =

0
I zolauenia

I
=

niezelete, be B
wie
upiynzio
B imme-> wow we P

to mentche 4263)
TymcreeP(A)
: = =

↑ut
=
36 =

42&
 #
is
pierossym prypadlu
zdomenic
P(A/B) PCA) :

cyli zajscic B
piya na

cause zojscia edanemia A .

idenerate
Intricitieod secze to se
,

zolete siebic
wrojammie .

Natomast i
drugin prypadu Ipnyl
↑(A)B) P(A) cyli zolament B
=

, rescia
A
wie
upigea ecouse me
.

Talie zamen chadliby

pary ,
my
niezdletugui
me
zywac

P(B)
P(A)B) =
P(A) &
An
atuadamy ,
be >0

Pe =

P(A)
- cauwatmy .
Ie
- ~bonosc
↑(AnB) =

P(A) P((z) -
take same
ezykolibyimy
Yantai +adue P
a
badaisP(B(A) P(B) =

we
notue
usi
od
by
0
goly P(A) >0

Ai
det .
Zoarzenia Bra niezaletme ET

P(AnB)
=

P(A) .

P(B) ·

·
Zoaremia A , B C
, 1 niezdlt me

P(AnnC) =
P(A) .

P(B) P(C) ·

iP(AnB) P(A) P(13)

I
goly spatione tyll
=

se

P(Brc) =

P(B) P(C) .

to to
minimy
war. te
I
,

P(cnA) =

P(C) p(A) - A B C
, 13 parami
,

riezalt he
 Do niezdetuos i
↓snes4
xotmelme
I s scythe war .

· Zotarzenia An ,
Az , ... golyAn s wierdethe ,

· a

vszystkich parami rotrych in , is .. ik ,

cocodi
P(Ain Aiz ... Aic)=
=

P(Ain) ·

P(Aiz) .
.... P(Aic) ,
K =

2 3 . m
.,
. .

, ,

Dabowdue nothing elemename eye e

·

rodzinie se miezaletie
, goly
katoly koniceomy alad tych zdance
ist
I wezaletry Legodeut 2 def .

10
pop redlet·) .

Komentar :

P(AnBrC) =
P(A)
I
-

(C)
+niesdetuos
parami
P(C)
P(B) P(B1C)
=
-

P(AnnC) =
a(1) .

P(Bnc)(/P(Brd)
PB)
· ile P>0
=

Pt)

P(A/Brc) =

P(A) = wymaganie
weskorce
tege w .

strin
wa seus
,

pierwszyMiezoletuosci
warnnek

~def .

A, B C
,
 prykiad : 2 niezaltio's a
parami
coamen A, B, C

sc
synike peine
vie niecolet no

2= moneta
Raucony
.

& =

98 ,
RR
,
RO
,
RRY ,
121 =
4

I
mypadi
not A rucie onci
piercossym
on
-

me no

midec'
,
te Ai B iC A 40 =

0
,
ORY 2 1A1 =

,
19 Michalet re , 2
P(A) 1/2
=

=
,y

·2mute B -

~drugim nucie
mypad
2
one

miezaletme
700, ROY 1B)
=

B =

P(B)
=

2 =

Y2
to sams
C- wobu mutach
mypadio
(2) 2
RR
=

2
-

er

I en
-(AnB) P(2003) P(h)

4(B)
4 f z
= .
= =
-
=

P(Brc) =

4(4003)
=

G =

7 = -
= P(B) .

P(C)
&
(21A) =
P(4003) =

7 =

=z = P(c) P(k) -

No all P(A) P(B) P(C) E 2 = 46 F 4(4004)

=
.
.
=
.

,
=
- =

I P(Annc)
-
=

nie mi penei niezeletmos i

nine inescetro's a
parati
prylad 2 warunku P(AnBrC) P(A) P(B) P(C)
=
:
.
.

nie niezeletno's's parami

wynike

Rucony monets I new .

A-wypadiomet
B-sypadi once
-zdanenie vianoline

Ocayniscie P(ArBnc) P(y) =

=
0 =

P(A) .

P(B) ·

P(C)
all
P(AnB) =
P(03) =

& =
Y P(A) p(B)
=
-