Chapter 1 - 5 - Oluwalayomi Olayinka - Factors That Influence Voter's Behavior2

CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
Elections are a fundamental part of any democracy, providing citizens with the opportunity to
choose their leaders and participate in the governance of their country (Tiwari & Dhoundiyal,
2020). However, voter turnout in Nigeria has been declining in recent years, raising concerns
about the health of the country's democracy (Omotola & Aiyedogbo, 2012). Several factors have
been identified as contributing to voter apathy in Nigeria, including economic hardship, lack of
trust in the government, electoral violence, and general apathy (Moliki, & Dauda, 2014).
In addition to these general factors, specific factors can influence voter behavior in Lagos State,
such as religion, ethnicity, party affiliation, and the quality of candidates (Nwankwo, 2019).
Lagos State is religiously and ethnically diverse, and party loyalty is strong among its residents.
The quality and competence of candidates running for office also play a crucial role in
influencing voter choices (Ezegwu et al., 2015).
The 2023 gubernatorial and presidential elections in Lagos State are shaping up to be highly
competitive, with several major parties fielding strong candidates. The outcome of these
elections will depend on a combination of the factors discussed above and more (Jombo &
Bamigbose, 2023).
The desire for democratic, accountable leadership and a paradigmatic political system has been a
global trend, gaining momentum in Africa during the early 1990s (Diamond & Plattner, 2010).
This surge in democratic aspirations led to the organization of elections and is intertwined with
the complex issue of voter behavior.
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In the 1990s, several African states began holding relatively competitive elections, often
accompanied by "National Conferences" involving incumbent governments, civil organizations,
and political groups aiming to influence the voting behavior of the populace (Nyong, 2017).
Voting behavior refers to the patterns and trends that dictate how individuals participate in
elections and the multifaceted factors that sway their voting choices.
The study of voting behavior is rooted in the late 18th century, with various factors influencing
Africans' electoral decisions (Koter, 2013). Nigeria, a diverse and complex nation, witnesses
numerous factors that influence voters' decisions during elections, including but not limited to
ethnicity, religion, regionalism, and economic status.
While elections in Nigeria are often perceived as free and fair, instances of voter fraud and
violence have been recorded. Nonetheless, a substantial number of Nigerians actively participate
in the electoral process. Understanding Nigeria's political landscape and improving the electoral
system hinges on deciphering the motivations behind individuals' voting choices.
Social scientists, led by Paul Lazarsfeld, initiated academic research into voting behavior at
Columbia University in 1940, pioneering the application of survey research to the study of
electoral behavior (Madubuegwu et al., 2022). The democratization of Nigerian political life
traces its roots back to the colonial and post-independent eras, marked by a collaboration
between some Nigerians and the British in the colonization and decolonization of Nigeria
(Sulemana, 2022).
Nigeria, a democratic nation with a federal system of government, is characterized by intricate
ethnic divisions. These ethnic affiliations have a profound influence on the country's social
structures and political dynamics. Ethnic identity is at the core of the nation's social fabric, a
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phenomenon that emerged during colonial and post-independent Nigerian politics when the three
primary ethnic groups formed a delicate balance upon which the political climate rested (Ajayi,
2021).
This ethnic diversity has had far-reaching consequences, from electoral fraud to challenges in
conducting censuses, often accompanied by opposition from different regions and ethnic groups.
The persistent presence of ethnic identity in various aspects of Nigerian life has fueled
contentious episodes in the nation's history, including the civil war and other civil unrest (Reed
& Mberu, 2015).
Due to Nigeria's entrenched ethnic loyalties, assessing historical voting patterns and electoral
outcomes through a strict modern party identification lens has proven challenging
(Erhunmwunse, 2023). Religious and racial influences are frequently used to group and identify
voters. However, recent electoral trends, as observed in the 2023 general elections in Nigeria,
indicate a shift (Ojukwu et al., 2023). Voters are increasingly aligning with political parties
based on national issues and modern party identification, transcending traditional ethnic and
religious inclinations.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Nigeria, like many democracies, faces a critical challenge concerning declining voter turnout,
raising concerns about the democratic health of the nation (Omotola & Aiyedogbo, 2012).
Despite the foundational principle of elections enabling citizens to choose their leaders, the
country experiences a significant decline in voter participation. Several factors contribute to this
decline, including economic hardship, widespread distrust in the government, instances of
electoral violence, and a pervasive sense of apathy among the populace (Moliki & Dauda, 2014).
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These challenges are not unique to Nigeria but are part of a complex interplay of socio-economic
and political factors that hinder citizens' active participation in the democratic process.
Furthermore, specific to Lagos State, a diverse and dynamic region, the complexity of voter
behavior is compounded by factors such as religious affiliations, ethnic diversity, strong party
loyalties, and the quality of candidates (Nwankwo, 2019). The religious and ethnic diversity in
Lagos State adds layers of complexity to the voting patterns, with residents often voting based on
religious or ethnic inclinations. Additionally, party affiliations significantly influence voting
behavior, and the competence of candidates running for office plays a crucial role in shaping
voter choices (Ezegwu et al., 2015).
The 2023 gubernatorial and presidential elections in Lagos State present was a pivotal moment,
requiring a thorough understanding of these complex factors. Several major parties are fielded
strong candidates, intensifying the competition (Jombo & Bamigbose, 2023). This situation
demanded an in-depth analysis of the multifaceted factors influencing voters' decisions to
comprehend the evolving nature of voter’s behavior.
Moreover, the historical context of Nigeria's electoral landscape further complicates the issue.
The nation's political evolution, marked by colonial influences and ethnic divisions, has led to
challenges in evaluating voting patterns through a contemporary lens. Ethnic loyalties have
historically played a significant role, in assessing electoral outcomes challenging (Erhunmwunse,
2023). Although religious and racial influences have also been prevalent, recent shifts,
particularly observed in the 2023 general elections, suggest a transformation in voter alignment.
There is a discernible move towards political parties based on national issues and modern party
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identification, indicating a departure from traditional ethnic and religious voting tendencies
(Ojukwu et al., 2023).
In light of these challenges and transformations, this study aims to delve into the intricate web of
factors shaping voters' behavior during the 2023 gubernatorial and presidential elections in
Lagos State. By employing a multifaceted approach and drawing from historical and
contemporary influences, this research seeks to unravel the complexities of voter behavior,
offering valuable insights essential for informed policy-making and the enhancement of
democratic practices in Nigeria.
1.3 Aim and Objective of the Study
The broad aim of this study is to comprehensively investigate and analyze the various factors
that influence voters' behavior during the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential elections in Lagos
State, with a specific focus on the Mainland Local Government Area. To achieve this broad aim,
the study will pursue the following specific objectives:
1. To examine the role of ethnicity in shaping voter preferences and behavior during the
2023 presidential and gubernatorial election in Lagos State.
2. To assess how religious affiliation impacts voter decision-making during elections in
Lagos State.
3. To identify and analyze the diverse factors that shape voter preferences and choices
during the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential elections in Lagos State.
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1.4 Research Questions
To achieve the objectives and fulfill the aim of this study, the following research questions will
be addressed:
1. How does ethnicity influence the voting preferences and behavior of voters during the
2023 presidential and gubernatorial elections in Lagos State?
2. To what extent does religious affiliation affect the decision-making process of voters
during the 2023 elections in Lagos State?
3. What are the specific factors, beyond ethnicity and religion, that play a significant role in
shaping the preferences and choices of voters during the 2023 Gubernatorial and
Presidential elections in Lagos State?
1.5 Significance of the Study
The study investigating factors influencing voters' behavior during the 2023 Gubernatorial and
Presidential elections in Lagos State bears substantial significance for a wide array of
stakeholders, enriching our comprehension of electoral dynamics and democratic governance. Its
importance is multifaceted:
Firstly, it provides a foundation for enhanced policy development. Policymakers, political
parties, and electoral commissions can draw on its insights to craft informed policies and
strategies, thereby fortifying the integrity of the electoral process and encouraging greater voter
participation.
Moreover, the study contributes to the advancement of electoral transparency. By shedding light
on the intricate determinants of voter behavior, it aids in identifying potential vulnerabilities
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within the electoral system, facilitating efforts to improve transparency, reduce electoral
violence, and boost voter confidence in the democratic process.
Furthermore, this research supports informed voter education. A deeper understanding of the
factors influencing voter choices is essential for designing effective voter education programs,
empowering citizens to make informed decisions and thereby fortifying the foundations of
democratic participation.
For political parties and candidates, this study offers a strategic advantage. Understanding the
concerns and expectations of Lagos State's electorate enables tailored campaign strategies,
potentially leading to more impactful campaigns and a more representative political landscape.
Academically, the study enriches the body of knowledge in political science and electoral
studies, serving as a reference point for future research into the dynamics of Nigerian elections.
It also plays a role in promoting social harmony by emphasizing the importance of inclusivity
and tolerance in the electoral process, which can contribute to the reduction of ethnic and
religious tensions during elections.
Additionally, this research is vital for ensuring democratic stability. A deeper understanding of
the factors driving voter behavior is crucial for maintaining and strengthening the democratic
fabric of Lagos State and Nigeria as a whole. At the community and local level, the findings are
instrumental for identifying specific concerns and priorities, enabling better community
development and governance.
On a broader scale, the study provides insights that contribute to the global understanding of
democratic processes, serving as a reference for international organizations, governments, and
researchers seeking to comprehend the intricacies of diverse and dynamic electoral contexts.
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In summary, this research has academic, practical, and global implications. It fosters a more
transparent, inclusive, and informed electoral system, thereby strengthening democracy and
promoting civic engagement in Lagos State and Nigeria as a whole.
1.6 Scope of Study
This research employs a Cross-Sectional Descriptive Study or Survey Research design to
investigate factors influencing voter behavior during the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential
elections in Lagos State, focusing on the Mainland Local Government Area. It encompasses
registered voters who actively participated in these elections within the Mainland Local
Government Area, using a sample size of 200 respondents. Inclusive criteria include Mainland
residency, age 18+, eligibility to vote in 2023, and consent. Exclusion criteria involve non-
residents, under-18s, ineligibility to vote, and lack of consent. Data collection comprises
structured questionnaires with Likert scales and in-depth interviews. The analysis involves
descriptive statistics and chi-square tests to uncover significant patterns in voter behavior during
the 2023 elections in Lagos State.
1.7 Definition of Terms
1. Election: An election is a formal process in a democracy where eligible citizens cast their
votes to choose their representatives or decide on specific political matters.
2. Voting: Voting is the act of expressing one's preference or choice by casting a ballot in
an election, referendum, or other decision-making process.
3. Voting Behavior: Voting behavior refers to the patterns and trends that dictate how
individuals participate in elections, including the factors that influence their choices, such
as candidate selection, party affiliation, and issue preferences.
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4. Electoral Turnout: Electoral turnout is the percentage of eligible voters who participate
in an election by casting their ballots. It is a measure of voter participation.
5. Ethnicity: Ethnicity is a social and cultural identity based on shared cultural, historical, or
ancestral attributes, often influencing an individual's political choices.
6. Religious Affiliation: Religious affiliation refers to an individual's adherence to a
specific religious belief or denomination, which may influence their voting decisions
based on moral or ethical considerations.
7. Party Affiliation: Party affiliation is a voter's association or loyalty to a particular
political party, which can significantly influence their voting choices in favor of
candidates from that party.
8. Candidate Quality: Candidate quality refers to the perceived competence, qualifications,
and characteristics of political candidates running for office, which may impact a voter's
decision to support them.
9. Electoral Fraud: Electoral fraud involves illegal or fraudulent activities that undermine
the integrity of an election, such as vote rigging, voter suppression, or ballot tampering.
10. Issue Preferences: Issue preferences pertain to a voter's prioritization of specific policy
or societal issues, such as healthcare, education, or the economy, which can shape their
voting decisions in alignment with candidates who share their stances on these issues.
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CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Preamble
In this section, the study provides a concise overview of critical dimensions related to election
dynamics, voter behavior, and influencing factors. We emphasize the significance of elections as
the foundation of democracy, highlighting the challenges involved in conducting free and fair
elections, particularly in diverse, multi-ethnic contexts like Lagos State. Voter behavior's central
role is acknowledged, and influenced by individual, social, and political factors, including age,
gender, education, income, social environment, party affiliation, candidate attributes, and media
influence. Ethnicity's impact on voter preferences is explored, especially in multicultural regions
like Lagos State. The study also introduces the theoretical frameworks of Rational Choice
Theory and Sociological Theory, which underpin the research. Finally, we identify gaps in the
existing literature, highlighting the need for further investigation into the complexities of voter
behavior in Lagos State's electoral landscape.
2.2 Conceptual Review
In this section, the Conceptual Review provides a foundational exploration of election dynamics,
voter behavior, and influencing factors. It elucidates the essence of elections as the bedrock of
democratic societies, discussing the elements of voter behavior, including individual, social, and
political aspects. Socioeconomic factors and ethnicity's roles in shaping voter preferences are
addressed, essential in Lagos State's diverse context.
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2.2.1 Understanding the Dynamics of Elections
Elections are the cornerstone of democratic societies, serving as the fundamental mechanism
through which collective voices are heard, and political leaders are chosen (Smith & Benavot,
2019). These pivotal events are crucial for the functioning of democracies, as they involve the
selection of candidates from a pool of contenders, ultimately shaping the trajectory of
governance. Definitions of elections may vary, but they universally underscore their democratic
significance. Obegolu (Polsby et al., 2023) defines elections as the act of choosing individuals
from a larger group, while Encyclopaedia Britannica (Gado, 2019) describes them as the process
by which a society's members express their political decisions by voting for opposing candidates
or parties.
The organization of entirely free and fair elections is a complex endeavor, as evidenced by
challenges faced globally (Yusuf, 2019; Genyi & Ortom, 2018). These challenges often arise
from prevailing sociocultural conditions, impacting not only underdeveloped nations but also
advanced ones. The decision to participate in elections or abstain from voting is heavily
influenced by a myriad of factors deeply rooted in the sociocultural backgrounds of individuals
(Axford, 2018). In the context of Nigeria, a nation characterized by its multi-ethnic tapestry and
diverse religious orientations, voting and electoral processes become even more intricate.
The complexities of elections in Nigeria, a microcosm of diversity and cultural plurality, are
further accentuated by the interplay of ethnicity, religion, and various cultural nuances (Austine
et al., 2016). In this context, voting patterns are not solely based on policies and party affiliations
but are often intricately tied to communal identity and social norms. The dynamics of elections in
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Lagos State during the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential Election are particularly interesting,
as they reflect the broader challenges and intricacies of the Nigerian electoral landscape.
According to Hamalai et al., (2017), understanding the Dynamics of Elections in Lagos State is
vital for several reasons. Firstly, Lagos State is one of the most populous and politically
influential regions in Nigeria, making it a microcosm of the nation's diverse electoral landscape.
Secondly, the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential Election holds immense significance, as it is a
crucial opportunity for Lagosians to elect leaders who will shape the future of their state and the
nation as a whole. Lastly, the unique sociocultural factors that influence voter behavior in Lagos
State deserve special attention due to their potential to impact the overall democratic process.
2.2.2 Understanding Voting Behavior and Party Identification
Voting, a fundamental pillar of democratic decision-making, serves as the primary method
through which citizens in a democracy select candidates for public office and collectively
express their views on critical issues (Al Khawatreh et al., 2023). This process amalgamates
individual perspectives into a coherent basis for decision-making, underpinning democratic
governance. Voting is, in essence, a behavioral process that reflects how voters make choices,
encompassing the myriad factors that influence their selection of a candidate or political party
(Antwi, 2018). It serves as a fundamental mechanism in democratic societies, where individuals
collectively and rationally choose candidates for public office based on perceived collective
benefits.
Voter Behavior, a central focus in the realm of political science, constitutes a collection of
individual electoral behaviors such as political campaign involvement, voter turnout, and
candidate preference (Kittel & Marcinkiewicz, 2012). Understanding voter behavior involves
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considering an array of factors, as it's not solely determined by a single cleavage in vote choices,
such as class, religion, or ethnicity. Rather, it's the cumulative impact of various persisting
divisions that shapes voting patterns. Structural or sociological approaches emphasize the
interplay between individuals and their social contexts, delving into how socioeconomic class,
language, nationality, religion, and rural-urban distinctions influence voting. Voting patterns can
also be associated with the unique characteristics of specific geographic regions, utilizing
ecological or aggregate statistical methods (Arbia, 2012). Social psychology theories explore
how a voter's political preferences relate to psychological traits and attitudes. Additionally,
rational-choice explanations offer insights into voting behavior as a result of cost-benefit
calculations made by voters, evaluating the relative appeal of various election outcomes
concerning the issues at hand and the policies advocated by candidates.
Party Identification plays a significant role in contemporary democracies, as citizens often align
themselves with a specific political party based on the belief that it will best serve their political,
social, and economic interests (Gilens, M., & Page, 2014). This identification reflects a sense of
connection to social groups associated with a particular political party, rooted in personal and
affective attachment. People choose the party they identify with based on their feelings toward
these social groups. For instance, a person who strongly relates to social groups commonly
associated with a particular party, such as Republicans, is likely to have a strong and comfortable
identification with that party. Party identification comprises two core dimensions: social
identification and partisan affect (Huddy et al., 2014). Social scientists have identified party
identification as a fundamental aspect of public political psychology, serving as a mechanism
through which the political effects of class divisions are transmitted to the electoral arena. In
earlier eras, such as the 1960s, the majority of individuals identified themselves as middle- or
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working-class, forming strong affiliations with political parties representing their economic
interests.
2.2.3 Factors Influencing Voter Behavior
The study of voter behavior in democratic elections represents a critical focus for political
scientists and social researchers. Understanding the intricate web of influences that shape the
choices made by individuals at the ballot box is not only an essential aspect of electoral studies
but also a fundamental underpinning of democratic processes themselves. According to Sinclair
(2012), it categorizes the factors that shape voter behavior into three broad categories: individual,
social, and political.
1. Individual Factors:
Individual characteristics and attributes have long been recognized as influential factors
in voter behavior. Age, for instance, plays a pivotal role (Jennings & Niemi, 2015).
Research consistently reveals that younger voters tend to espouse more liberal political
ideologies, often aligning themselves with candidates who champion progressive policies
(McCarthy & Santucci, 2021). Conversely, older individuals are more likely to hold
conservative views and therefore may be inclined to support candidates who emphasize
traditional values and policies. This age-based division in political orientation is a well-
documented and significant factor in voter behavior.
Gender is another individual factor that exerts influence. Studies show that women are
often more likely to support candidates who prioritize social issues, such as healthcare,
education, and social equality (Alcaraz et al., 2020). In contrast, men tend to be more
inclined to support candidates who focus on economic issues, such as job creation, fiscal
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policy, and taxation. The role of gender in shaping voter preferences underscores the
importance of examining not just who votes but why they vote as they do.
Education and income levels are also fundamental individual factors. Highly educated
individuals tend to align themselves with candidates whose policies and platforms
resonate with their educational attainment (Bovens & Wille, 2010). On the other hand,
income can significantly shape political perspectives, guiding individuals toward
candidates whose positions align with their economic interests. This aspect of voter
behavior highlights the interconnected nature of social and economic variables with
electoral choices.
2. Social Factors:
Voter behavior is not solely determined by individual attributes; it is equally influenced
by social factors (Sinclair, 2012). These encompass the influence of an individual's social
environment, including family, friends, and social groups. The theory underlying this
influence posits that individuals are often swayed by the opinions of those they respect
and trust. Thus, voters may be more likely to support candidates endorsed by their social
circles. Social factors extend to voter turnout as well, with individuals residing in
communities characterized by high levels of voter engagement being more likely to
participate. This effect is driven by social norms that encourage civic participation within
these communities.
3. Political Factors:
The political arena plays a central role in shaping voter behavior. This category
encompasses the influence of political parties, candidates, issues, and the broader
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political climate (Hobolt & Spoon, 2012). Research has explored the impact of party
affiliation, candidate positions on key issues, and the overall political climate on voter
choices.
Party affiliation is a core element of political factors. Individuals often align themselves
with political parties that they believe best represent their values, interests, and
ideologies. Party platforms serve as guiding beacons for voters, influencing their
decisions and alignment with candidates who endorse similar policies.
Candidate stances on key issues are equally influential. Voters often make their choices
based on a candidate's positions regarding issues they hold dear. (Landa & Pevnick 2021)
Candidates who address concerns considered vital by the electorate are more likely to
gain support, reflecting the issue-driven nature of electoral choices.
The broader political climate is another pivotal factor. Elections characterized by high
stakes or charismatic candidates can inspire increased voter participation. A sense of
urgency or excitement regarding a particular candidate or issue often spurs individuals to
the polls.
In sum, the factors influencing voter behavior are multifaceted and interrelated. Moreover, the
unique sociocultural context of Lagos State during the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential
Election introduces additional complexities into the equation.
2.2.4 Political Parties and Candidate Characteristics
The dynamics of voter behavior in the electoral landscape have long been a subject of interest for
political scientists and researchers (Schmitt-Beck, 2019). Among the myriad factors that
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influence voters, the role of political parties and the characteristics of candidates stand out as a
pivotal and extensively studied aspect.
1. Political Parties:
Political parties are integral components of democratic systems, serving as platforms for
candidates to present their ideologies, values, and policy agendas. As such, they play a
critical role in shaping the political landscape and guiding voter behavior (Biswas, 2023).
Voters often rely on party affiliation as a shorthand method to assess a candidate's
position on a wide range of issues. Parties serve as identifiers of distinct political
ideologies and platforms, and individuals who share these values may form a sense of
party identification. Party identification anchors the voting choices of many citizens, who
consistently align themselves with a particular party due to shared values and beliefs.
Research in political science has illuminated the profound impact of party identification
on voter behavior (Turner & Ryan, (2023). Studies have shown that voters tend to
support candidates affiliated with the party they identify with, often engaging in straight-
ticket voting. This phenomenon underscores the significance of party affiliation as a
guiding factor in electoral choices. Furthermore, the perceived policy consistency and
alignment with party values play a critical role in attracting voters to specific candidates.
2. Candidate Characteristics:
While party affiliation offers a foundation for understanding a candidate's political
orientation, voters also evaluate candidates based on their characteristics (Harrison et al.,
2023). Charisma, experience, qualifications, and trustworthiness are attributes that hold
sway over voter decisions.
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Charisma, in particular, is a characteristic that can exert a compelling influence.
Charismatic candidates possess the ability to connect with voters on a personal level,
evoking enthusiasm and trust (Young, 2017). Research has shown that charisma can
transcend political differences, inspiring cross-party support as voters are drawn to the
personality and leadership style of the candidate (Dahal & Head, 2016). Charismatic
candidates often evoke a sense of hope and optimism among voters, which can be a
powerful motivator.
Experience and qualifications are also key factors in voter decision-making. Voters often
seek candidates with a proven track record of public service, relevant experience, and
expertise in areas that align with their concerns (Bauer, 2020). Candidates who can
demonstrate a deep understanding of the issues at hand and a capacity to address them
effectively may gain the trust and support of voters.
Trustworthiness is another vital candidate characteristic. In an era marked by political
polarization and skepticism, voters seek candidates who convey honesty, integrity, and a
commitment to fulfilling their promises. Trust in a candidate is a cornerstone of voter
decision-making, as individuals want to believe that their chosen representative will act
in their best interests.
However, the interplay between political parties and candidate characteristics is a complex and
multifaceted process. Parties offer a broader framework for understanding a candidate's general
alignment with certain values and policies, while candidate characteristics provide voters with a
more personalized and relatable connection to the candidate.
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2.2.5 Socioeconomic Factors and Voter Behavior
The relationship between socioeconomic factors and voter behavior is a critical aspect of
understanding the complexities of electoral politics. Considering the interplay between income,
education, and occupation, they influence the choices made by voters in democratic elections
(Häusermann & Kriesi 2015). Against the backdrop of the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential
Election in Lagos State, these socioeconomic factors take on a heightened significance, given the
diverse and dynamic sociocultural context.
1. Income:
Income level serves as a fundamental determinant of voter behavior. Research has
consistently highlighted the impact of income on political participation and electoral
choices (Mukherjee et al., 2023). Higher-income voters tend to display higher levels of
political engagement, which often translates into increased voter turnout. This
phenomenon can be attributed to several key factors. Individuals with higher incomes
often have greater access to political information and resources, enabling them to make
more informed decisions. Moreover, their economic stability is closely tied to political
outcomes, reinforcing their motivation to participate in the electoral process and vote in
ways that align with their economic interests.
Studies have shown that voters with higher incomes tend to support candidates and
policies that are perceived to be conducive to economic prosperity, such as tax policies
that may directly affect their financial well-being (Bøggild, 2016). Income-based
divisions in the electorate reflect the diverse economic interests at play in the political
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arena, with higher-income individuals often favoring candidates and parties that promote
economic growth and fiscal responsibility.
2. Education:
Educational attainment is another influential socioeconomic factor in voter behavior.
Voters with higher levels of education are consistently more likely to engage in the
electoral process. The connection between education and political participation can be
attributed to several contributing factors. More educated individuals often have a greater
awareness of political issues and a deeper understanding of the complexities of the
political landscape. Their educational experiences equip them with critical thinking skills
that are valuable when assessing candidates and their policy proposals.
Educated voters tend to be more discerning in their decision-making, evaluating
candidates based on their qualifications, positions on key issues, and the potential impact
of their policies. This suggests that the educational divide in the electorate can
significantly shape electoral outcomes, with educated voters potentially having a stronger
influence on the democratic process.
3. Occupation:
Occupational backgrounds and affiliations represent an additional dimension of
socioeconomic influence on voter behavior. Different occupational groups often exhibit
distinct political preferences, guided by their perceived economic interests and priorities.
For instance, union members tend to support candidates and parties that prioritize labor
rights, workers' interests, and social welfare policies. This aligns with their economic
interests and the desire for policies that protect workers' rights and well-being.
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Conversely, business owners and those in management roles often lean towards candidates and
parties perceived as advocates for pro-business policies, lower taxation, and deregulation. This
occupational divide is emblematic of how individual economic circumstances and affiliations
can influence political choices, reflecting the multifaceted nature of voter behavior.
2.2.6 Media Influence on Voter Behavior
In the contemporary political landscape, the media stands as a formidable and influential force in
shaping public opinion and, by extension, voter behavior. The media's portrayal of candidates,
the dissemination of political messages, and the spotlight on critical issues all serve as pivotal
elements that mold the choices made by the electorate. In the context of the 2023 Gubernatorial
and Presidential Election in Lagos State, a bustling media hub, the influence of the media on
voter perceptions and decisions takes center stage.
Media Portrayal of Candidates:
The media plays a pivotal role in mediating the relationship between political candidates and the
voting public. The portrayal of candidates in the media holds the potential to significantly
influence voter behavior. The media's framing of candidates is integral to shaping how voters
perceive their qualifications, integrity, and suitability for public office.
The portrayal of candidates in the media can have a profound impact on voter preferences. If the
media emphasizes a candidate's positive attributes, accomplishments, and policy positions, voters
are more likely to be drawn to that candidate. Conversely, if the media focuses on negative
stories, controversies, or shortcomings of a candidate, voters may become more skeptical and
less likely to support them.
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The media employs various techniques and narrative strategies to frame political candidates,
including news reporting, opinion pieces, televised debates, and social media discourse. These
framing mechanisms can have significant consequences for voter perceptions and behavior,
underscoring the importance of understanding how the media portrays candidates in the unique
sociocultural context of Lagos State.
Dissemination of Political Messages:
The media is a primary conduit for the dissemination of political messages during election
campaigns. Political candidates and parties leverage various media platforms to communicate
their policies, positions, and campaign messages to the electorate. The media's role in amplifying
these messages, as well as its editorial choices regarding what to cover and how to cover it, can
significantly shape voter perceptions and behavior.
Media coverage has the power to influence the salience of political issues and the prominence of
candidates in the minds of voters. When the media extensively covers specific issues or amplifies
particular policy proposals, it can impact which topics voters prioritize and which candidates
they perceive as better equipped to address these issues. This media-driven agenda-setting
process can lead to shifts in voter behavior as individuals align their choices with the issues that
receive the most attention in the media.
Influence on Voter Turnout:
The media's role in influencing voter turnout is a critical aspect of its impact on the democratic
process. Extensive media coverage of an election can serve as a catalyst for increased voter
engagement. When the media covers an election extensively and provides information about
candidates, issues, and the stakes involved, it can motivate voters to turn out at the polls.
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Media outlets often employ various strategies to enhance voter turnout, such as voter education
initiatives, candidate debates, and comprehensive election coverage. Furthermore, the media's
framing of an election as high-stakes and consequential can create a sense of urgency and
importance among voters, motivating them to participate in the electoral process.
In Lagos State, as a vibrant media hub with a diverse and dynamic sociocultural landscape, the
influence of the media on voter behavior is pronounced. The confluence of traditional and digital
media outlets provides voters with a multifaceted view of candidates and issues.
2.2.7 Role of Ethnicity in Voter Preferences
The role of ethnicity in shaping voter preferences is a central and multifaceted factor in
understanding the dynamics of voter behavior during elections. Ethnic identity holds the power
to significantly influence the choices made by voters, and its impact on the electoral landscape is
profound. In the context of the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential Election in Lagos State, a
region characterized by its diverse and multi-ethnic population, ethnicity adds an intriguing and
complex layer to the study of voter behavior.
Ethnicity and Voter Priorities:
One of the striking features of the role of ethnicity in voter preferences is its capacity to shape
the political priorities of individuals from different ethnic backgrounds. This phenomenon is not
unique to Lagos State but is observed globally. For example, in the United States, Hispanic
voters are more likely to support candidates who prioritize immigration reform, reflecting their
specific concerns and interests. In contrast, African American voters often support candidates
who focus on racial justice issues, aligning with their distinct policy priorities.
23
In the Nigerian context, where ethnic affiliations are deeply ingrained in the sociopolitical fabric,
ethnicity often plays a profound role in shaping voter preferences. Individuals frequently
gravitate toward candidates who share their ethnic or regional background, believing that these
candidates are better equipped to represent and advocate for their interests. The perception that
candidates from one's own ethnic group are more attuned to the unique challenges and
aspirations of their community influences voter choices. This dynamic contributes to the
diversity of preferences within the electorate and significantly impacts electoral outcomes.
Lagos State's Multi-Ethnic Landscape:
Lagos State's diverse demographic makeup and multi-ethnic nationalism add a layer of
complexity to the role of ethnicity in voter behavior. Lagos is a microcosm of Nigeria's rich
tapestry of ethnic diversity, with residents hailing from various ethnic backgrounds, including
Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa, and numerous minority groups. Each ethnic group in Lagos State carries its
own historical, cultural, and political narratives, which contribute to the intricate mosaic of the
electorate.
Understanding how ethnicity influences voter behavior in Lagos State necessitates a nuanced
exploration of how ethnic affiliations intersect with other factors such as candidate quality, party
ideology, and campaign messaging. Research has shown that while ethnicity is a significant
influence, it does not operate in isolation. Voters' decisions are often shaped by a combination of
factors, making it essential to comprehend the interplay between ethnicity and these other
determinants.
The role of ethnicity in voter preferences is a fundamental aspect of electoral politics, and it is
especially relevant in Lagos State.
24
2.3 Theoretical Framework
In this section, the study provides an overview of the conceptual framework. The analysis is
grounded in two fundamental theories, Rational Choice Theory (RCT) and Sociological Theory.
RCT posits that voters are rational actors who make decisions to maximize utility, taking into
account costs, benefits, and policy preferences. On the other hand, Sociological Theory examines
how social factors, such as income, education, and ethnicity, influence voting patterns. These
theories collectively offer valuable insights into the decision-making processes of voters, serving
as a framework for comprehending the intricate dynamics of voter behavior in the diverse
sociopolitical landscape of Lagos State. This section forms the theoretical basis for the study's
exploration of the factors that shape voter behavior during the 2023 Gubernatorial and
Presidential Election.
2.3.1 Rational Choice Theory (RCT)

Rational Choice Theory (RCT), a foundational framework in the study of voter behavior, has its
roots in the field of economics. It was first developed by prominent economists and political
scientists in the mid-20th century (Foka-Kavalierak & Hatzis, 2011). RCT, as applied to the
realm of political science and voter behavior, is instrumental in understanding how individuals
make rational decisions in the context of elections. This literature review explores the key
concepts of RCT, its application to voter behavior, and its relevance to the study of Factors That
Influence Voter Behavior during the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential Election in Lagos
State.
Propounders and Historical Development:

Rational Choice Theory emerged from the works of economists and political scientists in the
mid-20th century, According to Palda (20110, notably:
25
Duncan Black (1948): Duncan Black, a Scottish economist, introduced the concept of the median
voter theorem, which laid the foundation for RCT in the context of elections. His work in the
field of public choice theory provided the initial insights into how voters make rational choices
based on their preferences.
Anthony Downs (1957): Anthony Downs, an American economist and political scientist, further
developed RCT in his seminal work, "An Economic Theory of Democracy." Downs introduced
the concept of rational voters who seek to maximize their utility by casting their votes for the
candidate or party that aligns most closely with their preferences. His work significantly
influenced the application of RCT to political behavior.
Key Concepts of Rational Choice Theory:
The core concepts of RCT in the study of voter behavior include:
Utility Maximization: RCT posits that voters aim to maximize their utility or well-being through
their choices. This concept reflects the idea that voters make rational decisions based on the
perceived benefits and costs of their choices, considering potential outcomes and consequences.
Cost-Benefit Analysis: RCT emphasizes the importance of cost-benefit analysis in decision-
making. Voters evaluate candidates and policies by weighing the potential benefits they offer
against perceived costs, including trade-offs and potential adverse outcomes.
Instrumental Voting: Rational voters are viewed as instrumental actors who cast their votes as a
means to achieve specific policy goals or influence political outcomes. Voting is seen as a
strategic action aimed at achieving desired results.
26
Information Processing: RCT assumes that voters are well-informed and capable of processing
information effectively. Informed voters collect information about candidates, parties, and
policies, which informs their decision-making.
Application to Voter Behavior:
The application of Rational Choice Theory to the study of voter behavior is centered on
examining how voters make rational choices based on the core concepts outlined above. Key
aspects of this application include:
Candidate Evaluation: RCT suggests that voters assess candidates based on qualifications, policy
positions, and the potential benefits they offer. Voters select candidates who align with their
preferences and promise to deliver favorable outcomes.
Issue Prioritization: RCT implies that voters prioritize issues based on their significance to them.
Voters choose candidates and parties that are more likely to address these prioritized issues
effectively.
Party Identification: Within the RCT framework, party affiliation may serve as a heuristic for
guiding voter choices, especially when voters lack detailed information about individual
candidates or specific policy proposals.
Relevance to the Study:
The relevance of Rational Choice Theory to the study of Factors That Influence Voter Behavior
during the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential Election in Lagos State is underpinned by its
ability to elucidate how voters approach their decision-making process. It offers insights into
how informed decisions are made, utility is maximized, costs and benefits are assessed, and
27
issues are prioritized in a complex sociopolitical landscape. RCT provides a theoretical
foundation for investigating the rational calculations and decision-making processes that guide
voter behavior in Lagos State's vibrant and diverse electoral context.
2.3.2 Sociological Theory
Sociological theory, a foundational framework for understanding the intricate web of factors that
influence voter behavior, has its origins in the works of eminent sociologists and theorists over
the course of the 20th century (Buechler, 2016). This literature review delves into the key
concepts of sociological theory, its application to the study of Factors That Influence Voter
Behavior during the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential Election in Lagos State, and its
relevance in comprehending the sociocultural and structural dynamics that shape voting
decisions.
Profounder and Historical Development:
According to Bramson, (2015), Sociological theory, as applied to political behavior, owes its
development to the contributions of several influential figures in the field of sociology:
Max Weber (1864-1920): Max Weber, a German sociologist, is known for his work on the
sociology of religion, bureaucracy, and social action. His ideas on social structures, authority,
and the impact of cultural values on human behavior laid the groundwork for the sociological
examination of how social structures influence voting behavior.
Emile Durkheim (1858-1917): Emile Durkheim, a French sociologist, made significant
contributions to the study of social integration and the role of social norms in shaping individual
behavior. His work on collective conscience and group solidarity is foundational to
understanding the impact of group affiliations on voting choices.
28
Robert K. Merton (1910-2003): Robert K. Merton, an American sociologist, introduced the
concept of manifest and latent functions within social structures. His ideas on the unintended
consequences of social structures are relevant to the study of how various social institutions
influence voter behavior.
Key Concepts of Sociological Theory:
Social Structures: Sociological theory emphasizes the role of social structures, including family,
community, religious institutions, and socioeconomic divisions, in shaping individual behavior.
Social structures frame social norms, expectations, and values, thereby influencing voting
decisions.
Socialization: Socialization processes play a pivotal role in sociological theory. Individuals
acquire their political attitudes, values, and behaviors through interactions with family, peers,
educational institutions, and media. These processes form the basis for political identities and
preferences.
Group Affiliation: The theory underscores the significance of group affiliations and
identification in shaping voter behavior. Individuals often align with social, religious, or ethnic
groups that share common values and interests, impacting their voting choices.
Social Class and Economic Factors: Economic disparities and social class are key concepts
within sociological theory. Socioeconomic status can significantly influence voting behavior,
with individuals from different economic backgrounds prioritizing distinct policy issues and
candidates who align with their economic interests.
29
Application to the Study:
The application of sociological theory to the study of Factors That Influence Voter Behavior in
the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential Election in Lagos State involves examining how social
structures, socialization processes, group affiliations, and socioeconomic factors influence voter
choices:
Social Structures and Voting: Sociological theory is applied to understand how various social
structures within Lagos State, including religious communities, neighborhood associations, and
cultural groups, impact voter behavior. These structures serve as sources of political socialization
and influence individuals' perceptions of candidates and parties.
Socialization and Political Identity: The study explores how political socialization processes in
Lagos State shape individuals' political identities. Family, educational institutions, and media
contribute to the formation of political attitudes and values, which in turn affect voting choices.
Group Affiliation and Voting Patterns: Sociological theory informs the exploration of how group
affiliations, such as ethnic or religious identities, influence voting patterns. The study can
investigate why individuals often vote in alignment with their group's perceived interests and
preferences.
Socioeconomic Factors and Voting Behavior: The theory's focus on social class and economic
factors is applied to investigate how individuals' economic backgrounds and socioeconomic
status influence their voting choices. Economic disparities within Lagos State are examined in
relation to voter behavior.
30
Relevance to the Study:
Sociological theory's relevance to the study of Factors That Influenced Voter’s Behavior during
the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential Election in Lagos State is underscored by its ability to
elucidate how sociocultural, structural, and identity-related factors mold voting decisions. Its
application offers a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between social structures,
group affiliations, and individual socioeconomic factors in shaping voting choices in Lagos
State's diverse and dynamic sociocultural context.
In summary, sociological theory, developed by influential sociologists over the years, provides a
robust framework for investigating the multifaceted influences on voter behavior. It allows for a
contextual and nuanced analysis of how sociocultural and structural dynamics intersect with
individual choices in the realm of voting.
2.4 Empirical Review
In a study by Ihembe (2022), the implications of undemocratic candidate selection methods in
Nigeria's political landscape are critically examined. Adopting the illiberal theory of democracy
as the analytical framework, Ihembe's research sheds light on the prevalence of illegal
regulations governing party primaries, leading to frequent judicial interventions in contested
primary elections. These legal discrepancies disrupt the democratic process, impacting
participatory democracy and political competition, fundamental elements for democratic
consolidation. The study highlights the nation's struggle with illiberal democracy, evident in its
stagnation within a "political gray zone." To mitigate these challenges, Ihembe's study
recommends amendments to the Electoral Act, allowing for the resolution of disputed primaries,
and advocates for the introduction of direct primaries to enhance transparency and inclusivity.
31
The research underscores the urgent need for reforms to fortify Nigeria's democratic foundations
in the face of undemocratic practices.
In Obah-Akpowoghaha's (20130 study, an in-depth analysis of Nigeria's political intricacies
illuminates the factors determining the emergence of political party candidates and the
consequential impact of a lack of internal democracy within these parties on the democratic
consolidation process. Rooted in a meticulous survey-based research methodology, the study
unearths compelling insights: a staggering 95% of respondents identify money and social class as
pivotal factors shaping candidates' positions in Nigerian elections, underlining the financial
disparities influencing political outcomes. Additionally, 90% of respondents underscore the
dominance of power incumbency and godfatherism in candidate selection. Moreover, the study
highlights the detrimental effects of tribalism, ethnicity, nepotism, and sectionalism within party
politics, factors recognized by almost 90% of respondents. These findings substantiate the
study's core conclusion that internal party dynamics have profound negative implications for
Nigeria's democratic consolidation. The undue influence of financial disparities, social
stratification, incumbency, and ethnic considerations underscores a pressing need for reform
within Nigeria's political parties, emphasizing the urgency of promoting transparent, inclusive,
and democratic internal party processes to facilitate the consolidation of Nigeria's democracy.
Nwankwo et al.'s 2017 study presents a thorough examination of the escalating problem of voter
abstention in South Eastern Nigeria, a pressing issue that has cast a shadow on Nigerian
democracy since 2003. The study recognizes that voter turnout serves as a fundamental yardstick
for democratic performance and is instrumental in evaluating the health of a democracy. Through
a comprehensive research approach encompassing a literature review, questionnaire survey, and
rigorous data analysis, the study identifies and elucidates eight core factors that contribute to the
32
surge in voter abstention in the region. These factors encompass socioeconomic disparities,
societal trust deficits, unemployment, registration challenges, corruption, intimidation, and
poverty. The study underscores the potential adverse implications of increasing voter abstention
on the Nigerian democratic landscape and emphasizes the critical need for reforms in economic
policies, governance, and electoral institutions to foster greater inclusivity and participation,
ensuring the vitality and resilience of Nigeria's democratic foundations.
Adigun's 2020 study delves into the critical issue of declining voter turnout in Nigerian
presidential elections, recognizing its significance as a fundamental measure of electoral
democracy. Amidst two decades of uninterrupted democracy in Nigeria, the observed decline in
voter participation since 2003 poses a significant challenge to the democratic process. The
study's analysis of violence, socioeconomic factors, and candidate popularity reveals a
compelling finding: candidate popularity, manifested through voters' preferences for tribe,
political party affiliation, and trust in candidates' abilities, emerges as the most influential factor
in the declining voter turnout. While violence and socioeconomic factors are noted, their impact
appears less pronounced. These findings emphasize the pivotal role of candidate appeal and
inclusivity in electoral strategies, signifying the importance of addressing declining voter turnout
to uphold the core principles of electoral democracy in Nigeria.
2.5 Gaps of Literatures
While the reviewed studies contribute significantly to the understanding of democratic processes
and challenges in Nigeria, several gaps in the existing literature are evident. Firstly, there is a
need for further research on the practical implementation of the recommended reforms and
policy changes proposed in these studies. For instance, Ihembe's study recommends amendments
to the Electoral Act, but the actual feasibility and implications of such amendments require in-
33
depth exploration. Similarly, Obah-Akpowoghaha's emphasis on the importance of promoting
transparent and inclusive internal party processes calls for empirical investigations into the
effectiveness of such reforms in mitigating the negative impacts of illiberal internal party
dynamics.
Secondly, the reviewed studies mainly concentrate on specific aspects of the political process,
such as candidate selection, voter abstention, or declining voter turnout. There is a lack of
comprehensive studies that connect these aspects to provide a holistic understanding of the
challenges facing Nigerian democracy. Future research should aim to bridge these gaps by
examining the interplay between these factors and their combined impact on democratic
consolidation.
Additionally, the studies often rely on survey-based methodologies to gather data, which may
have limitations in terms of generalizability. A more extensive and diverse data collection
approach, including qualitative methods like in-depth interviews and ethnographic studies, can
provide a richer understanding of the complexities of Nigerian politics.
Lastly, there is a need for a more robust examination of the role of civil society, media, and
international actors in influencing democratic processes in Nigeria. These actors play crucial
roles in shaping the political landscape, and their impact on democratic consolidation warrants
more attention in the literature.
In conclusion, while the reviewed studies provide valuable insights, they also reveal gaps in the
literature, which can serve as a roadmap for future research endeavors to enhance the
understanding of democratic challenges and opportunities in Nigeria.
34
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHOD
3.1 Preamble
In this chapter, we outline the research methods employed in the study, "Factors That Influenced
Voters' Behavior During the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential Election in Lagos State: A
Study of Mainland Local Government Area, Lagos State." The research design, population,
sample size, sampling technique, data collection methods, and data analysis procedures are
discussed in detail.
3.2 Research Design
This research employed a Cross-Sectional Descriptive Study or Survey Research design,
incorporating quantitative data collection methods to investigate the factors that influenced
voters' behaviour during the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential election in Lagos State, with a
specific focus on Mainland Local Government Area. The study gathered data through structured
surveys with closed-ended questions to analyze respondents' demographic characteristics and
their views on the role of ethnicity, religion, age, education, and other factors in shaping electoral
preferences and choices.
3.3 Population and Sample Size of the Study
The population of interest for this study comprises registered voters within the Mainland Local
Government Area, Lagos State, who actively participated in the 2023 gubernatorial and
presidential elections. The Mainland Local Government Area serves as the geographical scope
for the research, and the study focuses on understanding the voting behavior and preferences of
this specific voter population.
35
To ensure the practicality of data collection and analysis while maintaining the study's
robustness, a representative sample size of 200 respondents has been selected. This sample size
is deemed sufficient to provide valuable insights into the factors that influenced voters’ behavior
during the 2023 elections in Lagos State, particularly within the Mainland Local Government
Area.
The choice of 200 respondents as the sample size is based on a balanced consideration of
research feasibility and statistical significance. It ensures that the data collected will be
manageable within the research constraints while still providing meaningful insights.
Additionally, the sample size aligns with the typical size of samples used in studies of similar
scope and nature, making it suitable for the study's objectives.
Inclusive Criteria:
● Residency: Participants must be registered voters in the Mainland Local Government
Area of Lagos State.
● Age: Participants must be 18 years old or above.
● Ability to Vote: Participants must be eligible to vote in the 2023 Gubernatorial and
Presidential election.
● Consent: Participants must provide informed consent to participate in the study.
Exclusive Criteria:
● Non-residents: Individuals who are not registered voters in the Mainland Local
Government Area of Lagos State will be excluded.
● Age Limit: Individuals under the age of 18 will not be included in the sample.
36
● Ineligibility to Vote: Individuals who are not eligible to vote in the 2023 election (e.g.,
non-citizens) will be excluded.
● Lack of Consent: Individuals who do not provide informed consent will not be
considered for the study.
3.4 Sampling Technique
A random sampling technique was employed to select the study participants. In this case, simple
random sampling was utilized to ensure a fair and unbiased selection process. This technique
allowed for each potential participant within the defined population to have an equal and
independent chance of being included in the study. Consequently, a representative sample of 200
respondents from the Mainland Local Government Area, Lagos State, was randomly selected,
ensuring that the findings could be generalized to the broader population of voters in this area.
3.5 Data Collection and Research Instruments
Data for this study was collected through a combination of structured questionnaires and in-
depth interviews. The structured questionnaires were designed to gather quantitative data
pertaining to respondents' demographic information, voting patterns, and their attitudes towards
various factors that influenced their behavior during the 2023 elections. Additionally, in-depth
interviews were conducted with a subset of the sampled population to obtain qualitative insights
into their voting experiences and perceptions.
The structured questionnaires utilized a Likert scale, which included the following response
options: "Strongly Agree," "Agree," "Cannot Say," "Disagree," and "Strongly Disagree." This
scale allowed for the quantitative assessment of respondents' attitudes by measuring their levels
of agreement or disagreement with specific statements related to the study's focus.
37
Section A: Respondents' Demographic Characteristics
In this section, respondents were asked to provide details about their demographic
characteristics, including information related to gender, age, marital status, religion, ethnic
affiliation, occupation, and education. These demographic variables served as crucial
background information to better understand the composition of the study population.
Section B: Ethnicity and Voter Preferences in the 2023 Elections
This section of the questionnaire was designed to explore the role of ethnicity in shaping voter
preferences during the 2023 elections. Respondents were presented with statements related to
trust in other tribes, the association between voting for someone from their tribe and
developmental outcomes in their geopolitical zone, perceptions of charity beginning at home,
and the satisfaction derived from voting for someone from their tribe. The Likert scale was
employed to gauge respondents' levels of agreement or disagreement with these statements,
allowing for a quantitative assessment of their attitudes toward ethnicity's impact on voter
preferences.
Section C: Religion and Voter Decision-Making in Lagos State
In this section, the questionnaire delved into the influence of religious affiliation on voter
decision-making during elections in Lagos State. Respondents were presented with statements
addressing the relationship between an aspirant's religion and their competence to rule, the
creation of opportunities for people from the aspirant's ethnic affiliation, the determination of an
aspirant's capacity to perform, and the sense of belonging provided by the religious affiliation of
aspirants. Similar to Section B, the Likert scale was applied to measure respondents' levels of
38
agreement or disagreement with these statements, facilitating a quantitative assessment of their
attitudes towards religion's influence on voting decisions.
Section D: Factors Influencing Voter Preferences in Lagos State
This section of the questionnaire explored a range of factors that shape voter preferences and
choices during elections in Lagos State. Respondents were presented with statements regarding
the role of political elites in promoting tribalism for political gains, the creation of tension by
political elites during elections, the exploitation of poverty-related issues by political elites, the
impact of electorates' interest (or lack thereof) on political elites, general insecurity's
discouragement of electorates, the manipulation of ethnic cleavages by elites, and the
coordination within political parties. As in previous sections, the Likert scale was used to gauge
respondents' levels of agreement or disagreement with these statements, enabling a quantitative
assessment of their attitudes towards these factors.
3.6 Method of Data Analysis
Upon collection, the gathered data was systematically analyzed utilizing quantitative methods.
The quantitative data extracted from the structured questionnaires was meticulously entered into
statistical software, specifically SPSS, to ensure accuracy and precision in the analysis process.
In the initial phase of analysis, descriptive statistics were employed. Frequencies and percentages
were calculated comprehensively to provide a succinct summary of the demographic
characteristics, voting patterns, and attitudes exhibited by the respondents. These measures not
only offered a snapshot of the participants' profiles but also facilitated a deeper understanding of
their voting behaviors and perceptions.
39
Subsequently, the statistical software, SPSS, was utilized to perform various inferential analyses.
These analyses included chi-square tests to discern associations and relationships among
different variables. By employing these tests, the study was able to identify significant patterns
and correlations within the dataset, allowing for nuanced interpretations of the factors
influencing voters' behavior during the 2023 elections.
The utilization of SPSS software ensured a rigorous and systematic analysis, enabling the
research team to draw meaningful conclusions from the collected data. Through these analytical
approaches, the study was able to provide valuable insights into the complex interplay of
variables shaping voters' attitudes and patterns during the specified elections in Lagos State.
3.7 Scope and Limitation of the Study
This research employs a Cross-Sectional Descriptive Study or Survey Research design to
investigate factors influencing voter behavior during the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential
elections in Lagos State, focusing on Mainland Local Government Area. It encompasses
registered voters who actively participated in these elections within Mainland Local Government
Area, using a sample size of 200 respondents. Inclusive criteria include Mainland residency, age
18+, eligibility to vote in 2023, and consent. Exclusion criteria involve non-residents, under-18s,
ineligibility to vote, and lack of consent. Data collection comprises structured questionnaires
with Likert scales and in-depth interviews. Analysis involves descriptive statistics and chi-square
tests to uncover significant patterns in voter behavior during the 2023 elections in Lagos State.
However, the study has certain limitations. Its findings are specific to the Mainland Local
Government Area and may not be applicable to other regions in Lagos State or the entire
country. The random sampling method, while robust, may still exhibit some bias, and data
40
collection methods are subject to respondent bias. Additionally, the study primarily focuses on
the 2023 elections, potentially limiting its applicability to broader trends in voter behavior.
Furthermore, it does not delve deeply into the influence of broader social and political factors on
voter behavior.
41
CHAPTER FOUR
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULT
4.1 Introduction
Data collected for this study were statistically analyzed and all results from the analysis were
presented below. The hypotheses were tested using frequencies and percentages.
Table 4.1: Respondents’ Demographic Characteristics
The characteristics of respondents were profiled, presented were information on participants’
age, sex, education, marital status, religion and occupation furnished the basis for the socio-
demographic analyses for the study.
Variables Levels Frequency Percentage
Sex Male 106 53%

Female 94 47%
20 – 30 years 67 33.5%
Age 31 – 40 years 101 50.5%%
41 years & above 32 16%
Single 83 41.5%
Marital status Married 89 45.5%
Divorced 11 5.5%
Widowed 17 8.5%
Christianity 101 50.5%

Religion Islam 97 48.5%
Others 2 1%
42
Ethnic affiliation Yoruba 78 39%
Ibo 62 31%
Hausa 35 17.5%
others 25 12.5%
Occupation Civil servant 85 42.5%
Trader 25 12.5%
Private job 45 22.5%
Unemployed 40 20%
Student 5 2.5%
Never schooled 5 2.5%
Education Primary education 35 17.5%
Secondary education 40 20%
College of
education/Polytechnic. 40 20%
University education 80 40%
Table 4.1 presents a snapshot of the demographic characteristics of the study's respondents. The
gender distribution is fairly balanced, with 53% being male and 47% female. In terms of age, the
majority fall in the 31-40 years bracket, making up 50.5% of the sample, while 33.5% are aged
20-30 years, and 16% are 41 years and above, indicating a significant presence of middle-aged
participants. Regarding marital status, 45.5% are married, 41.5% are single, 8.5% are widowed,
and 5.5% are divorced. Christianity prevails as the dominant religion at 50.5%, followed closely
by Islam at 48.5%, while only 1% adhere to other, unspecified religions. In terms of ethnicity,
the Yoruba group leads at 39%, followed by the Ibo group at 31%, Hausa at 17.5%, and other
ethnicities at 12.5%. The occupation of the respondents varies, with 42.5% being civil servants,
22.5% having private jobs, 12.5% being traders, 20% unemployed, and 2.5% being students.
Furthermore, 40% of the respondents possess a university education, while 20% have secondary
education, 17.5% have primary education, and 2.5% have attended college of
43
education/polytechnic. Interestingly, 2.5% of the respondents have never received any formal
education. These demographic insights shed light on the composition of the respondent sample,
providing valuable context for understanding their potential perspectives on the research
questions.
4.2 Analysis of Result
Table 4.2
1: What is the role of ethnicity in shaping voter’s preferences and behaviour during the
2023 presidential and gubernatorial election?
Variable N Percentage %
I do not trust the capacity of any other tribe aside where I belong
Strongly Agree 51 25.5 %
Agree 44 22%
Cannot say 62 16%
Disagree 28 14%
Strongly Disagree 15 7.5%
Total 200 100
Voting someone from my tribe comes with development within our
geopolitical zone
Strongly Agree 68 49%
Agree 65 32.5%
Cannot say 42 6%
Disagree 22 11%
Total 200 100
I feel charity begins from home
Strongly Agree 57 43.5%
Agree 68 34%
Cannot say 45 7.5%
Disagree 25 12.5%
Total 200 100
I feel a sense of satisfaction in voting someone from my tribe
Agree 70 35%
Neutral 47 8.5%
Disagree 24 12%
Strongly 3 1.5%
Total 200 100
44
In Table 4.2, the role of ethnicity in shaping voter preferences and behaviors during the 2023
presidential and gubernatorial elections is examined through four key questions. The responses
reflect a range of attitudes and beliefs within the study population. Notably, a significant portion
of respondents express strong reservations about trusting other tribes, with 25.5% strongly
agreeing that they do not, and 22% in agreement, while 16% are uncertain (cannot say). The
belief that voting for someone from their own tribe brings development within their geopolitical
zone is prevalent, with 49% strongly agreeing and 32.5% in agreement, leaving only 6%
uncertain. Meanwhile, perceptions on "charity beginning at home" reveal a significant
agreement, as 43.5% strongly agree and 34% agree. However, a notable portion of respondents,
12.5%, disagree with this notion. Lastly, regarding the satisfaction derived from voting for
someone from their tribe, 28% strongly agree, and 35% agree, while 8.5% are neutral, suggesting
some respondents may not find tribal voting as satisfying. This table underscores the intricate
interplay of ethnicity in influencing voter preferences and behaviors, illustrating the complexity
and diversity of perspectives within the study population.
Table 4.3
2: How does religious affiliation impact voter’s decision-making during elections in Lagos
State?
1. An aspirant’s religion does not determine his/her competence N Percentage

to rule.
Agree 36 18%
Cannot say 59 29.5%
Disagree 22 11%
Total 200 100
2. An aspirants religion creates opportunities for people from
his/her ethnic affiliation
Agree 35 17.5%
45
Cannot say 62 31%
Disagree 22 11%
Total 200 100
3. An aspirants religion determines his/her capacity to perform
Agree 35 17.5%
Cannot say 62 31%
Disagree 32 16%
Strongly Disagree 22 11%
Total 200 100
4. Religious affiliation of aspirants gives electorates’ a sense of
belonging
Agree 47 23.5%
Cannot say 50 25%
Disagree 29 14.5%
Strongly Disagree 12 6%
Total 200 100
5. An ethnic affiliation give electorate an opportunity to make
demands
Agree 43 21.5%
Cannot say 55 27.5%
Disagree 30 15%
Total 200 100
6. An aspirants ethnic affiliation benefit his geopolitical zone
during political appointment
Agree 36 18%
Cannot say 59 29.5%
Disagree 22 11%
Total 200 100
7. An aspirants ethnic affiliation makes better agitation for his
own people
Agree 35 17.5%
Cannot say 62 31%
Disagree 22 11%
Total 200 100
46
In Table 4.3, the intricate dynamics of religious affiliation and its impact on voter decision-
making during the 2023 elections in Lagos State are revealed. The responses reflect a diverse
spectrum of opinions within the study participants. Notably, on the question of whether an
aspirant's religion determines their competence to rule, 30% strongly agree that it should not be a
determining factor, but 29.5% are uncertain, indicating significant indecision. Similarly, when
assessing whether an aspirant's religion creates opportunities for their ethnic affiliation, 29%
strongly agree, yet 31% are uncertain, showcasing a level of ambiguity. Regarding the belief that
an aspirant's religion influences their performance capacity, 24.5% strongly agree, but 31% are
uncertain, revealing substantial uncertainty in this aspect. The question of religious affiliation
providing a sense of belonging to electorates also presents ambiguity, with 25% uncertain.
Similarly, the impact of ethnic affiliation on voters' ability to make demands and an aspirant's
geopolitical zone during political appointments reflects a significant level of uncertainty, with
27.5% and 29.5% uncertainty, respectively. This table underscores the complexity and diversity
of perspectives within the electorate, emphasizing the nuanced nature of religious factors in
shaping voter decisions in Lagos State.
Table 4.4
3: What are the different factors that shape voter preferences and choices during the
elections in Lagos State?
1. Elites push tribalism for political gains during the 2023 elections
Strongly Agree 60 30
Agree 36 18
Cannot say 59 29.5
Disagree 22 11
Strongly Disagree 23 11.5
Total 200 100
2. Political elites created tension during the 2023 elections
Agree 35 17.5
47
Cannot say 59 29.5
Disagree 22 11
Strongly Disagree 26 13
Total 200 100
3. Poverty related problem were exploited by the political elites
Strongly Agree 49 24.5
Agree 35 17.5
Cannot say 61 30.5
Disagree 32 16
Total 200 100
4. Poor interest shown by electorates gave political elites the leeway to push
their agenda
Agree 47 23.5
Cannot say 38 19
Disagree 41 20.5
Strongly Disagree 12 6
Total 200 100
5. General insecurity in the political process discouraged electorates in
the 2023 election
Agree 35 17.5
Cannot say 50 25
Disagree 62 31
Total 200 100
6. Elites are always out to secure victory at all cost using ethnicity for
political reasons
Agree 36 18
Cannot say 62 31
Disagree 22 11
Total 200 100
7. Political parties lack internal coordination hence this affect their
political actions during elections
Agree 35 17.5
Cannot say 62 31
Disagree 22 11
Total 200 100
8. Political elites lacks interest in free and fair election
48
Agree 35 17.5
Cannot say 61 30.5
Disagree 32 16
Total 200 100
In Table 4.4, the intricate tapestry of factors shaping voter preferences in Lagos State's elections
is unveiled. The data illustrates a diverse range of perspectives on key issues. Firstly, significant
portions of respondents express concerns about political elites exploiting tribalism and creating
tension for electoral gains, with 30% strongly agreeing and 29% uncertain regarding these
aspects. Additionally, the exploitation of poverty-related problems by elites is a notable concern,
as 24.5% strongly agree and 30.5% are uncertain. The table also highlights the impact of general
insecurity on voter confidence, with 20% strongly agreeing and 25% uncertain about its
discouraging effect. Furthermore, the use of ethnicity as a political tool raises apprehensions, as
seen in 28.5% strongly agreeing and 31% uncertain. Internal coordination issues within political
parties also draw attention, with 29% strongly agreeing and 31% uncertain about this challenge.
Lastly, the question of political elites lacking interest in free and fair elections reveals significant
uncertainty, with 30.5% uncertain about this aspect. Overall, Table 4.4 portrays a complex
landscape of voter concerns, emphasizing the multifaceted nature of factors influencing electoral
decisions in Lagos State.
4.3 Analysis of Research Findings
In light of this study's extensive analysis of the data from Tables 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, and 4.4, it
becomes undeniably clear that tribal and ethnic disparities exert a profound influence on the
Nigerian electoral process. These disparities are pivotal factors that cannot be dismissed, given
the empirical evidence and responses from the study participants.
49
While ethnicity plays a pivotal role, it is vital to acknowledge that it is not the sole determinant
of electoral outcomes. The data showcases that other variables also contribute significantly to
shaping these outcomes. These include age, educational standards, religion, and gender. These
factors collectively create a multifaceted backdrop against which electoral results are determined.
They provide additional dimensions that must be considered when assessing the electoral
landscape in Nigeria.
Furthermore, the study's analysis underscores the intricate relationship between ethnicity and the
Nigerian electoral system. This relationship goes beyond mere observation; it is an active
mechanism employed by political leaders for their own self-interest. These leaders, in pursuit of
political gain, often manipulate ethnic affiliations to provoke cultural, religious, and sectional
sentiments. This practice is a testament to how ethnicity is harnessed as a tool for political
strategy in Nigeria.
Perhaps the most compelling observation from the study's findings is the fact that election results
often adhere to ethnic lines. This phenomenon illuminates the extent to which political elites
leverage ethnic cleavages to secure victory. It is a manifestation of how ethnicity, rather than a
mere backdrop, is actively manipulated in the electoral arena.
In sum, the study's comprehensive analysis reinforces the notion that ethnicity is a dominant and
often exploited element in the Nigerian electoral process. While other factors also hold
significance, the impact of ethnicity cannot be overstated. It is a dynamic and integral aspect of
Nigerian politics, one that shapes and, at times, skews electoral outcomes, reinforcing the
complex nature of the country's political landscape. A comprehensive discussion of the findings
of this study will be discussed in the next chapter.
50
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION
5.1 Introduction
This chapter provides the summary, conclusion and recommendations based on the findings of
the research study after the administration of research instrument. It summarizes the whole
research work, concludes based on study findings and proffers useful recommendations.
5.2 Summary
In this comprehensive analysis of survey data focusing on the 2023 Gubernatorial and
Presidential Election in Lagos State, with a particular emphasis on Mainland Local Government
Area, significant findings have emerged concerning the factors that significantly influence voter
behavior and decision-making.
The study was initiated by profiling the demographic characteristics of the respondents,
revealing critical insights into their age, gender, education, marital status, religion, and
occupation. Notably, the sample displayed a well-balanced gender distribution, with 53% of
respondents being male and 47% female. The study found that the majority of respondents fell
within the 31-40 age bracket, representing 50.5% of the sample, highlighting the prevalence of
middle-aged participants. Additionally, the diverse composition of marital status, religion, and
occupation offered valuable insights into the respondent sample's diversity, providing context for
understanding their potential perspectives on the research questions.
The analysis then explored the role of ethnicity in shaping voter preferences and behaviors,
revealing a range of attitudes and beliefs within the study population. Many respondents
51
expressed significant reservations about trusting other tribes and believed that voting for
someone from their own tribe leads to regional development. Notably, the concept of "charity
beginning at home" garnered substantial agreement, although a noteworthy portion disagreed.
The satisfaction derived from voting for someone from one's tribe also drew varied responses,
reflecting the intricate interplay of ethnicity in influencing voter preferences and behaviors.
The study further delved into the impact of religious affiliation on voter decision-making during
the elections. The responses reflected diverse perspectives within the study participants. Notably,
respondents exhibited uncertainty and varied opinions regarding whether an aspirant's religion
should determine their competence, create opportunities for their ethnic affiliation, or influence
their performance capacity. The question of religious affiliation providing a sense of belonging
to electorates also presented ambiguity, suggesting that religious factors are multifaceted in
shaping voter decisions.
Lastly, the analysis explored a wide array of factors that shape voter preferences and choices
during elections in Lagos State. Respondents expressed concerns about political elites exploiting
tribalism, creating tension, and exploiting poverty-related problems for electoral gains.
Insecurity's impact on voter confidence was also a notable concern. The use of ethnicity as a
political tool raised apprehensions. Additionally, issues related to internal coordination within
political parties and the lack of interest in free and fair elections among political elites were
subjects of discussion.
In conclusion, this in-depth analysis of survey data on the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential
Election in Lagos State underscores the complexity and diversity of factors influencing voter
behavior. The findings shed light on the intricate interplay of ethnicity, religion, and various
52
societal concerns in shaping voter preferences and choices. These insights provide a deeper
understanding of the dynamics of the electoral process in Lagos State and offer valuable context
for future research and policy considerations.
5.3 Conclusion
In conclusion, the study has provided valuable insights into voter behavior during the 2023
Gubernatorial and Presidential elections in Lagos State, particularly within the context of
Mainland Local Government Area. By addressing the research questions, the study has shed light
on the intricate factors influencing voters' decisions.
The findings underscore the significant role of ethnicity in shaping voting preferences. A
substantial portion of the respondents expressed a strong inclination towards voting within their
own tribe, emphasizing the impact of tribal identity on their electoral choices. However, it is
important to note the diversity of perspectives within the electorate; not all respondents shared
this sentiment, indicating a complex interplay of influences.
Religious affiliation emerged as another influential factor. While some respondents believed an
aspirant's religion should not determine their competence to rule, there was considerable
uncertainty surrounding this issue. Similarly, the role of religion in creating opportunities for
specific ethnic affiliations sparked varied opinions among the respondents. These results
emphasize the diversity of beliefs and attitudes within the electorate, showcasing the complexity
of religious factors in voter decision-making.
Beyond ethnicity and religion, the study highlighted a range of concerns related to political
dynamics. Respondents expressed worries about political elites exploiting tribalism, creating
tension, and manipulating poverty-related problems for political gains. Internal coordination
53
challenges within political parties and concerns about the commitment of political elites to free
and fair elections further contributed to the multifaceted landscape of voter preferences.
In summary, this research illuminates the multifaceted nature of voters' behavior in Mainland
Local Government Area, Lagos State, during the 2023 elections. The findings emphasize the
need for a nuanced understanding of the electorate, acknowledging the diverse factors that
influence their decisions. Policymakers, electoral stakeholders, and political candidates can use
these insights to develop targeted strategies that resonate with the concerns and preferences of
the voters, ultimately fostering a more informed and engaged electorate in future elections
5.3 Recommendations
Based on the findings of the study on Factors that Influenced Voters' Behavior during the 2023
Gubernatorial and Presidential Elections in Lagos State, particularly in Mainland Local
Government Area, the following recommendations are put forth:
● Voter Education Programs: Implement voter education programs that focus on the
importance of informed decision-making. These programs should aim to raise awareness
about the complexities of ethnicity and religious affiliation in voter behavior. Education
can help voters make decisions based on a broader understanding of candidate
qualifications and issues rather than solely on ethnicity or religion.
● Promote Ethical Campaigning: Encourage political parties and candidates to refrain from
exploiting tribalism and religious affiliations for political gains. Regulations and ethical
standards for political campaigning should be reinforced to ensure fair and responsible
electoral competition.
54
● Strengthen Political Party Coordination: Enhance the internal coordination within
political parties. Improved coordination can help parties convey a coherent and
compelling message to the electorate, focusing on issues and candidate qualifications
rather than divisive factors.
● Ensure Free and Fair Elections: Efforts should be made to ensure free and fair elections.
Voters' confidence in the electoral process is crucial, and it can be bolstered through
transparent and unbiased electoral practices. Addressing concerns about electoral
integrity can mitigate the impact of distrust on voters' behavior.
● Encourage Civic Engagement: Promote civic engagement among voters, irrespective of
their ethnic or religious background. Encouraging active participation in political
processes, such as community forums and town hall meetings, can provide voters with a
platform to voice their concerns and engage in constructive dialogue.
● Address Socioeconomic Factors: Recognize the influence of poverty-related problems on
voter behavior and work toward addressing these issues. Targeted social and economic
policies can help alleviate voter concerns about poverty and its exploitation by political
elites.
● Diversity in Candidate Selection: Political parties should strive for diversity in their
candidate selection processes to better represent the various ethnic and religious groups
within the electorate. This can help reduce perceptions of bias and foster inclusivity in the
political arena.
● Ongoing Research and Data Collection: Continuously monitor and research voter
behavior and preferences to adapt strategies and policies as the political landscape
55
evolves. Regular data collection and analysis can provide a more up-to-date
understanding of the factors influencing voters.
5.4 Suggestion for Further Studies
For further studies on the subject of voter behavior in the context of elections, particularly in
Lagos State, the following suggestions can guide researchers in exploring and expanding upon
the existing knowledge:
● Longitudinal Studies: Conduct longitudinal studies that track voter behaviour over
multiple election cycles. Long-term data collection can provide insights into evolving
trends and how external factors, such as changes in political leadership and
socioeconomic conditions, influence voter choices.
● Comparative Analysis: Compare voter’s behavior in Lagos State with other regions in
Nigeria or other countries with similar electoral systems. This comparative approach can
reveal unique regional dynamics and offer broader perspectives on voter behavior.
● In-Depth Qualitative Research: Complement quantitative data with in-depth qualitative
research, such as focus group discussions and interviews. This can help researchers
understand the underlying motivations and emotions that drive voter decisions, providing
a more holistic view of the subject.
● Analysis of Candidate Characteristics: Investigate the impact of candidate characteristics
beyond ethnicity and religion, such as educational background, experience, and policy
positions. Understanding how these factors influence voter behaviour can provide a
comprehensive understanding of candidate appeal.
56
● Geospatial Analysis: Employ geospatial analysis to study the spatial distribution of voter
behavior. This approach can reveal regional variations and the impact of geographical
factors on voting preferences.
● Social Media and Technology: Examine the role of social media and technology in
influencing voter behavior. With the increasing use of digital platforms in political
campaigns, understanding their impact on voter decisions is crucial.
● Experimental Studies: Conduct experimental studies to test the effectiveness of
interventions aimed at reducing the influence of ethnicity and religion on voter behavior.
For example, explore the impact of information campaigns or candidate debates on voter
decision-making.
● Post-Election Analysis: Analyze voter behavior in the aftermath of elections to assess the
impact of election outcomes on future voting preferences. Understanding how election
results influence subsequent voter behavior can provide valuable insights.
● Youth and First-Time Voters: Focus on the behavior of youth and first-time voters, as
they represent a dynamic and potentially influential segment of the electorate. Investigate
their unique motivations and concerns in making voting choices.
● Comparative Studies on Ethnic and Religious Diversity: Explore the role of ethnic and
religious diversity in voter behavior in various regions and countries. Investigate how
different levels of diversity impact electoral outcomes.
● Policy Implications: Examine the policy implications of voter behavior studies. How can
the insights gained from research be translated into effective policies and strategies for
electoral stakeholders, political parties, and government bodies?
57
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63
APPENDIX
UNIVERSITY OF LAGOS
FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
MASTER OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS (MPIA)
REQUEST TO COMPLETE QUESTIONNAIRE
I am a Postgraduate student of the above-named institution conducting a research on “Factors
That Influenced Voter’s Behaviour During the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential Election in
Lagos State: A Study of Mainland Local Government Area, Lagos State”. I would be very
grateful if you could respond to the questions as contained in the questionnaire designed for the
study. Your responses shall be strictly held in confidence. This is purely an academic exercise.
Thank you.
OLAYINKA, Oluwalayomi Esther
Researcher
SECTION A: RESPONDENTS' DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS
Please use tick boxes to indicate your responses.
1. Sex [ ] Male [ ] Female
2. Age [ ] 20 – 30 years, [ ] 31 – 40 years, [ ] 41 years & above
3. Marital Status: [ ] Single, [ ] Married, [ ] Divorced, [ ] Widowed
4. Religion: [ ] Christianity, [ ] Islam, [ ] Other (Please specify: ________)
5. Ethnic Affiliation: [ ] Yoruba [ ] Igbo [ ] Hausa [ ] Others (Please specify: ______
64
6. Occupation: [ ] Civil Servant [ ] Trader [ ] Private Job [ ] Unemployed [ ] Student
7. Education: [ ] Never Schooled [ ] Primary Education [ ] Secondary Education [ ]

College of Education/Polytechnic [ ] University Education
SECTION B: ETHNICITY AND VOTER PREFERENCES IN THE 2023 ELECTIONS
1. I do not trust the capacity of any other tribe aside from where I belong.
[ ] Strongly Agree [ ] Agree [ ] Cannot say [ ] Disagree [ ] Strongly Disagree
2. Voting for someone from my tribe comes with development within our geopolitical zone.
3. I feel charity begins from home.
4. I feel a sense of satisfaction in voting for someone from my tribe.
[ ] Strongly Agree [ ] Agree [ ] Neutral [ ] Disagree [ ] Strongly Disagree
SECTION C: RELIGION AND VOTER DECISION-MAKING IN LAGOS STATE
1. An aspirant's religion does not determine his/her competence to rule.
2. An aspirant's religion creates opportunities for people from his/her ethnic affiliation.
3. An aspirant's religion determines his/her capacity to perform.
65
4. Religious affiliation of aspirants gives electorates a sense of belonging.
5. An ethnic affiliation gives electorates an opportunity to make demands.
6. An aspirant's ethnic affiliation benefits his geopolitical zone during political

appointments.
7. An aspirant's ethnic affiliation makes better agitation for his own people.
SECTION D: FACTORS INFLUENCING VOTER PREFERENCES IN LAGOS STATE
1. Elites push tribalism for political gains during the 2023 elections.
2. Political elites created tension during the 2023 elections.
3. Poverty-related problems were exploited by political elites
4. Poor interest shown by electorates gave political elites the leeway to push their agenda.
5. General insecurity in the political process discouraged electorates in the 2023 election.
66
6. Elites are always out to secure victory at all costs using ethnicity for political reasons.
7. Political parties lack internal coordination, affecting their political actions during
elections.
8. Political elites lack interest in free and fair elections.
67

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CHAPTER ONE

1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY

influencing voter choices (Ezegwu et al., 2015).

the complex issue of voter behavior.

accompanied by "National Conferences" involving incumbent governments, civil organizations,

ethnicity, religion, regionalism, and economic status.

system hinges on deciphering the motivations behind individuals' voting choices.

Nigeria, a democratic nation with a federal system of government, is characterized by intricate

& Mberu, 2015).

1.2 Statement of the Problem

decline, including economic hardship, widespread distrust in the government, instances of

religious or ethnic inclinations. Additionally, party affiliations significantly influence voting

voter choices (Ezegwu et al., 2015).

demanded an in-depth analysis of the multifaceted factors influencing voters' decisions to

comprehend the evolving nature of voter’s behavior.

historically played a significant role, in assessing electoral outcomes challenging (Erhunmwunse,

(Ojukwu et al., 2023).

democratic practices in Nigeria.

1.3 Aim and Objective of the Study

the study will pursue the following specific objectives:

2023 presidential and gubernatorial election in Lagos State.

2. To assess how religious affiliation impacts voter decision-making during elections in

during the 2023 Gubernatorial and Presidential elections in Lagos State.

2023 presidential and gubernatorial elections in Lagos State?

during the 2023 elections in Lagos State?

Presidential elections in Lagos State?

1.5 Significance of the Study

Firstly, it provides a foundation for enhanced policy development. Policymakers, political

on the intricate determinants of voter behavior, it aids in identifying potential vulnerabilities

violence, and boost voter confidence in the democratic process.

religious tensions during elections.

development and governance.

democratic processes, serving as a reference for international organizations, governments, and

promoting civic engagement in Lagos State and Nigeria as a whole.

1.6 Scope of Study

This research employs a Cross-Sectional Descriptive Study or Survey Research design to

the 2023 elections in Lagos State.

1.7 Definition of Terms

votes to choose their representatives or decide on specific political matters.

an election, referendum, or other decision-making process.

as candidate selection, party affiliation, and issue preferences.

in an election by casting their ballots. It is a measure of voter participation.

ancestral attributes, often influencing an individual's political choices.

6. Religious Affiliation: Religious affiliation refers to an individual's adherence to a

based on moral or ethical considerations.

7. Party Affiliation: Party affiliation is a voter's association or loyalty to a particular

candidates from that party.

8. Candidate Quality: Candidate quality refers to the perceived competence, qualifications,

decision to support them.

influence. Ethnicity's impact on voter preferences is explored, especially in multicultural regions

behavior in Lagos State's electoral landscape.

2.2 Conceptual Review

addressed, essential in Lagos State's diverse context.

selection of candidates from a pool of contenders, ultimately shaping the trajectory of

influenced by a myriad of factors deeply rooted in the sociocultural backgrounds of individuals

2.2.2 Understanding Voting Behavior and Party Identification

Voting, a fundamental pillar of democratic decision-making, serves as the primary method

individual perspectives into a coherent basis for decision-making, underpinning democratic

(Antwi, 2018). It serves as a fundamental mechanism in democratic societies, where individuals

rational-choice explanations offer insights into voting behavior as a result of cost-benefit

concerning the issues at hand and the policies advocated by candidates.

identification as a fundamental aspect of public political psychology, serving as a mechanism

2.2.3 Factors Influencing Voter Behavior