Europe

MARS bulletin – 3rd April 2007
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
DIRECTORATE GENERAL JRC
JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
AGRIFISH Unit
MARS
BULLETIN
Vol. 15 – n° 2
February – March 2007
Mail version
Campaign analysis
For further information please contact:

J.R.C. - IPSC
AGRIFISH Unit
I-21020 Ispra (VA)
fax: +39-0332-789029
mars-stat@jrc.it
Editorial staff: B. Baruth, M. Bettio, R. Gonfalonieri, G.Genovese, C. Lazar, F. Micale, G. Narciso, A. Royer, I. Savin - AGRIFISH
Unit/JRC
Data production: I. Cerrani - AGRIFISH Unit/JRC, Alterra (NL); Meteoconsult (NL); MeteoFrance (Fr); VITO (B)
1
Contents
CAMPAIGN ANALYSIS
1. Crop yield forecasts
2. Agrometeorological overview
2.1 Temperatures and Evapotranspiration
2.2 Rainfall and Climatic water balance
2.3 Weather forecast for next days (4-12 April)
3. Campaign analysis at country level
3.1 EU-27
3.2 Black Sea area
3.3 Eastern Countries
3.4 Maghreb countries
4. SPOT VEGETATION satellite analysis
MAPS
5. Development stage of winter wheat and rapeseed
6. Temperature and precipitations in February 2007
7. Temperature and precipitations in March 2007
2
1. Crop yield forecasts

MARS STAT yield forecasts at EU25 level: 31 MARCH 2006
European Union 27 Yield (t/ha)
CROPS %
Average %
2006 2007 2007/
5 years 2007/06
Average
TOTAL CEREALS 4.7 5.0 4.8 +5.9 +4.4

Soft wheat 5.4 5.7 5.5 +6.0 +4.9
Durum wheat 2.8 2.9 2.6 +4.6 +10.6
Total wheat 5.0 5.3 5.1 +5.5 +5.4
Spring barley 3.4 3.7 3.7 +9.5 +2.0
Winter barley 5.1 5.3 5.0 +3.5 +6.2
Total barley 4.1 4.3 4.2 +6.3 +4.0
Grain maize 6.5 6.7 6.5 +3.0 +3.9
Other cereals (1) 3.0 3.1 3.2 +5.5 +4.5
Rape seed 2.9 3.0 3.0 +3.6 +1.0
Yield figures are rounded to 100 kg
(1) Sorghum, rye, maslin, oats, triticale, mixed grain other than maslin, millet, buckwheat
Sources:
2006 yields come from EUROSTAT CRONOS
2007 yields come from MARS CROP YIELD FORECASTING SYSTEM
2. Agrometeorological overview
Still unseasonable mild conditions over the majority of the continent. A winter tail in second half of March
brought strong wind and risk of frost damages. Rather dry in many of the Mediterranean and Black Sea areas
whilst wetter in central and north EU. Heavy rain in Sicily.
2.1 TEMPERATURES AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION

Following a quite mild January, again in February and March warmer than seasonal temperatures occurred
(except west EU, Greece and Maghreb). Drastic changes in central and west EU in the second half of March.
Certainly 2007 winter can be considered one of the mildest out of the last 20 years: only 1990 and 2001 presented
similar thermal conditions. At the end of March, in the whole central and eastern EU the accumulated active
temperatures (GDD with base temperature = 0°C) were present largely in surplus: in average 130-150 GDD but with
maximum of 200-230 GDD between Romania and Hungary. Only in the west side of the continent (namely: Ireland,
south-west France, central and west Spain, Portugal and Maghreb) more seasonal values were recorded. The milder
than seasonal temperatures were not uniformly distributed over the period: in February the higher temperatures
(both minimum and maximum were 6-8° above the LTA) occurred mainly in central EU, Italy and Balkans, while in
Sweden and Finland very cold conditions were recorded (even <-35°C); more seasonal in Spain, UK and Ireland; on
mid March the warm front moved eastward and in the west and central EU a drastic drop (mainly on minimum
values) occurred. Obviously, due to the higher absolute temperatures in March, the effect on the cumulated GDD
3
surplus was larger in this month than in February. As compared to the seasonal average, the largest anomalies were
recorded in March both for minimum values (in Spain with 6-8°C below LTA) and maximum (in central Italy, south-
west and south France, Ukraine and Russia with 10-12°C above LTA and in Turkey with 18-19°C above LTA). Again in
March, due to the cold air mass eruption, frost events occurred, but in general coupled with snow, which likely
prevented crop canopy damages. The lowest temperatures occurred in Spain (-7.5°C in Aragon and Castilla y Leon, -
7.0°C in Cataluña) and south France (-7.3°C in Provence) between 22nd and 25th of March. In these areas crop
damages were likely.
The above-mentioned thermal conditions influenced positively the value of the potential evapotranspiration,
mainly in March. At the end of March, the cumulated values were significantly above the seasonal average in east
EU (mainly Romania, Poland, Benelux, Denmark and north Germany) and Eastern Countries (e.g.: Ukraine, Belorussia
and Russia).
2.2 RAIN AND CLIMATIC WATER BALANCE
Dry conditions in Mediterranean regions (except Italy and Balkans), Portugal and Ukraine. Rather wet in
France, northern Spain, Balkans and southern Italy. Intense showers in Sicily.
As a whole, in EU countries during the considered period in general the rain was not limiting the potential crops
production, except in specific regions: southern and eastern Spain, central and southern Portugal, north-west Italy,
where it was scarce. In effect, the rain was abundant and largely spread in February on the majority of the EU
territory: in many cases (North Spain, France, southern UK, Germany, western Poland, Denmark, southern Sweden,
Romania, Hungary) was largely above the seasonal cumulated values (>+50% of LTA and in some areas even >
100%). On the contrary in some Mediterranean regions persisted relative dry conditions with a shortage of water
supply: southern and eastern Spain, southern France (Rhone Valley), north-western Italy (Po valley), eastern Greece
(Makedonia) and the Black Sea basin. However, in these areas thanks to the quite low winter crop water
consumptions (early stage of development of the active crops) the climatic water balance presented shortfall but
not dramatic values.
In March the rainy events moved partially southward and some areas affected by shortage rain received abundant
and beneficial water supply: southern Italy, eastern Greece, south-eastern Spain, Maghreb (>100 mm above LTA). In
Sicily some intense showers (>160 mm on 9th of March) occurred with possible local over welling and temporary
floodings. In these areas the rain will permit to have consistent soil water reservoirs for future reproductive stages of
development of winter crops (e.g.: durum wheat). But still some regions received less rain as expected: southern
Spain, southern Portugal, Rhone Valley, Po valley, eastern Ukraine, southern Turkey and Morocco, where the soil
water content was even more depleted (deficit estimable around 80-100 mm). In these areas, considering the more
advanced crops development, the potential yield could be affected and the final result will strongly be linked to the
future water supplies.
2.3 WEATHER FORECASTS FOR NEXT DAYS (APRIL 4-12)
TEMPERATURES: Temporary decrease in Spain and Morocco, followed by a progressive increase

eastward; still some frost events in east EU
Today and tomorrow, in Spain and Morocco a temporary reduction of temperatures is forecasted (Fig.1), but
in the following days progressively the temperatures will increase and the warm front will move eastward.
Starting from the 7th, the maximum temperatures could reach over 20°C in many areas in Spain, France, Italy
and in the internal territories of Eastern EU.
Anyway, still the minimum daily values will remain for some days below 0°C. A higher number of freezing
days are forecasted in Eastern EU and Eastern Europe, as well in the high lands of Turkey.
4
Fig.2
Fig.1
Fig.3 Fig.4
Fig.5 Fig.6
5
RAIN: beneficial rain in Mediterranean areas
Fortunately in the next days rain will be mainly concentrated in those areas now affected by shortage water
supply: south and east Spain, north of Morocco, Algeria and Greece (Fig.1, 2). In these areas, likely the rain
will interrupt a prolonged dry period, which depleted significantly the soil water content and where the
increase of temperatures will boost both the potential evapotranspiration and the crops water requirements
(due to the advancing stages of developments and the related “crops coefficient”).
On the contrary, no significant water supply will occur in the rest of the continent, except for east Turkey
(Fig.3-6).
Fig.1 Fig.2
Fig.3 Fig.4
Fig.5 Fig.6
6
3. Campaign analysis at country level

3.1. EU27
France: anticipated crops development under optimal conditions

The exceptional mild winter continued up to the beginning of March and the crop development was anticipated
by two decades for wheat and one month for the rapeseed very similar to the 2002 or 1990 plant cycle. From
mid March a general cold spell associated with snow in the eastern France has slowed down the crop growth but
should not have made frost kill damages.
The mild temperature should have limited the frost regulation of parasite and the plant will probably suffer in the
coming weeks from a higher parasite pressure.
Most of the country benefited from higher than seasonal rainfall (> 30%) from February to the 1st decade of March.
From then the precipitation remained lower than the seasonal values. For the coming vegetative growing period,
the crop can still rely on good soil moisture. However, Languedoc Roussillon and Provence Cotes d’Azur have water
reserves slightly lower than the average.
The early spring crop preparation should have been hindered early and late February by the rainfalls but should
have continued within normal conditions in March. In eastern the snow of March could have also interfered with the
field works.
Simulated Water-limited LAI for Wheat in LANGUEDOC- Development Stage for Rape seed in CENTRE (FR)
ROUSSILLON (FR)
6
200
5
150
4
units
m²/m²
3 100
2
50
1
0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Avg +2St_dev -2St_dev 1990 2002 2007 Avg +2St_dev -2St_dev 1990 2002 2007
13
Standardized Precipitation Index
Average values of Mean C-Tmean (°C) Period: 01/02 - 10/03 Corine Class: Non-irrigated arable land
12
Period: 01/02 - 10/03 Corine Class: Non-irrigated arable land Nuts code: FR France
2.0 2007
12
Nuts code: FR France
1.5 1990 1998 2004

1995
11 2001
1.0 2000
11 20022003
1991
0.5 1996
10 1993 1999
1977 1983
1989
1975 2006
10 0.0
2005
1982 1988
1984 1994
9 -0.5
1978 1992
1980
9 -1.0 1997
1976
8 1981
-1.5
1987
1979
1985
1986
1981
1976
1997
1980
1978
1992
1984
1994
1982
1988
2005
2006
1989
1983
1977
1999
1993
1996
1991
2002
2003
2000
2001
1995
1990
2004
1998
2007
1975
19851986
1979
Year Avg +Stdev -Stdev -2.0 1987
7
Germany: exceptional anticipated crop development with optimal soil

moisture
Germany experienced an exceptional mild winter. The average temperature remained above the average up to the
2nd decade of March. From then a limited cold spell affected the half southern of the country with negative
temperature. Despite the crop de-hardening these temperature drop associated with snow falls should not have
affected the crops. As result of the mild period wheat and rapeseed showed an anticipated crop development by
more than 4 decades like in 1989.
The precipitations were abundant at higher level than the seasonal value with two drier periods mid February and
mid March. The country experienced two main snow spells at the beginning of February and end of March. The
crops will benefit from optimal soil moisture and will not be water limited in the coming fast growing period. The
early spring sowing could have been slightly hindered by the precipitation particularly late February and March.
The mild and wet conditions should be favourable for the parasite development in the coming period.
Development Stage for Wheat in Deutschland (DE) Simulated Water-limited LAI for Wheat in Deutschland
(DE)
8
200
7
6
150
5
units
m²/m²
100 4
3
50 2
1
0 0
Deutschland - (DE)
11
Average values of Mean C-Tmean (°C)

Daily Rainfall and Snow Period: 01/02 - 24/03 Corine Class: Non-irrigated arable land
12 10
Nuts code: DE Deutschland
11 RAIN
10 9
SNOW
9
8
7 8
6
5 7
4
3
2 6
1
0 5
1987
1985
1979
1986
1997
1981
1980
1982
1996
1988
2006
1976
1994
1992
1984
1978
1977
2005
1999
2003
1989
1983
1991
1993
2004
2002
1998
1995
2000
2001
1990
2007
1975
01-Feb 01-Mar
Source: JRC-MARS database Year Avg +Stdev -Stdev
Development Stage for Wheat in Deutschland (DE) Simulated Potential LAI for Wheat in Deutschland (DE)
200 7
6
150 5
m²/m²
units
4
100
3
2
50
1
0 0
8
UK and Republic of Ireland: a mild but wet winter, more seasonal and drier
since mid March
Following a mild start to the year, at the beginning of February more seasonal temperatures were restored; but
only for a short period, because again in mid February warmer conditions returned. In the second half of March
more seasonal thermal conditions occurred. However, during the period the temperatures always remained within
the normal ranges of variation and no significant extreme events occurred. Late light frost events were recorded in
the last part of March but without significant impact on active crops, also thanks to snow cover. As a whole, in the
considered period, the temperatures were on average 1.5°/2°C above the seasonal mean and therefore the
cumulated active temperatures presented 70-90° GDD above the LTA values (+25/30%). Consequently, all of the
developments of the active crops, but especially for winter rape seed, were boosted. At the end of March, winter
cereals’ stages were 15-20 days in advance and more than 30 days for rape seed (practically at flowering stage).
Similar conditions occurred in 1998 and 2002 and more advanced stages were recorded only in 1990.
The very advanced and sensitive stages of development reached (e.g. rape seed) and the probability to have late
frost events (normally possible until the end of April), expose those crops to future risks, despite the seasonal
forecasts show still mild conditions for the next months.
During the period, the rains were abundant (on average +20/25% as compared to LTA), and frequent (more than 15
rainy days), especially in western UK, more seasonal in IE.
Mainly in east UK, persistent rain and mild temperatures determined favourable conditions for pest and diseases
and for nitrogen leaching. Therefore, the current high crops potentiality could be reduced given the absence of an
appropriate crop management and protection. The rainfalls and snow (mainly in Wales and Scotland) were also on
obstacle for spring sowing (e.g. barley).
Daily
Eastern - (UK) Development Stage for Rape seed in Eastern (UK)
Cumulated
values Daily and Cumulated rain
16 120
------ Current period
14 200
------ Average (1975-2005) 100
12
80 150
10
units
8 60
100
6
40
4 50
20
2
0 0 0
1-Feb 1-Mar Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Source: JRC-MARS database Avg +2St_dev -2St_dev 2005 2006 2007
9
Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxembourg: exceptionally mild and wet

After a very mild winter Belgium and The Netherlands experienced the highest average temperature for February-
March since 1975. The end of March was characterized by a colder spell that did not reach frost kill temperature. As
a result of this exceptional mild condition the vegetation development is anticipated by one month for the wheat
and forty days for the rapeseed like in 1989 and 2002.
The BENELUX recorded from 20 to 60 mm above the seasonal rainfalls which represent one of the wettest February-
March for the last 30 years. The replenished soil moisture will benefit to the crops at a re-growth stage. However the
early spring crops sowing should have been hindered.
The lack of significant frost spell in winter that usually reduced the parasite pressure ans the on going mild
temperature associated with the wet conditions should facilitate the development of pests and diseases in the
coming days.
12
Simulated Water-limited LAI for Wheat in Nederland Average values of Mean C-Tmean (°C)
(NL) 12
Period: 01/02 - 24/03 Corine Class: Non-irrigated arable land
8 11 Nuts code: BE België/Belgique/Belgien
7 11
6 10
5 10
m²/m²
4 9
3 9
2 8
1 8
0 7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1987
1979
1986
1985
1980
1997
1981
1982
1976
1978
1988
1992
1984
1994
2006
1977
1983
1989
1996
2005
1999
1993
1991
2003
2004
2002
2001
2000
1998
1995
1990
2007
1975
Avg +2St_dev -2St_dev 1989 2002 2007 Year Avg +Stdev -Stdev
Development Stage for Rape seed in Standardized Precipitation Index

België/Belgique/Belgien (BE)
Nuts code: NL Nederland
2.0 2007
1.5 1990
200 2000
1998 2002
2001
1.0 1995
1993 2004
1991 2003
150 1999
0.5 1989
units
2005
1983
2006
1975 1992
100 0.0
1977
1994 1996
-0.5 1978 1984
50 1976 1981
1988
-1.0 1982
1997
0 1980
-1.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1985
1986
Avg +2St_dev -2St_dev 1989 2002 2007 1979
-2.0 1987
10
Italy: warmer than normal up to mid March; drier in the north, beneficial rain
in southern areas.
The two months were characterized by milder than seasonal temperatures. Both the minimum and the maximum
daily values remained above the seasonal average (on average 2-3°C) since the second dekad of March. Therefore,
the active temperatures presented higher accumulation values around 80-120° GDD as compared to LTA. Similar
thermal conditions occurred in 1990, 2001 and 2002. Geographically, the surplus GDD was not uniformly
distributed: the highest values (>200) were recorded in central Italy, along the Adriatic and in the Po valley; lighter
surplus occurred in the southern part, in Sicily and North-west. In the second half of March a drastic temperature
reduction occurred (in average 6-8°C, even larger in southern areas). Despite that, as a whole, the plants’ growth
was accelerated and at the end of March, the development stages were, on average, 1 or 2 weeks in advance as
compared to the LTA and similar to 2001; even more advanced in Central Italy. As a whole, only a few frost days was
recorded and solely in the Po valley the minimum reached -3° or -4°C in mid February, but likely without evident
damages.
In general, the rainfalls were scarce in northern and central areas whilst in southern, and in particular in Sicily, they
were abundant and well spread over the period (12-15 rainy days). In Sicily, at the beginning of March, intense
showers occurred, determining the second wettest year since 1975 (the wettest was 1996); the soil reservoirs were
filled and are available for the future reproductive stages of winter crops (durum wheat).
On the contrary, in the Po valley, and in particular in the north-west, dry conditions, already started during the
previous autumn, persisted. The water deficit was around 50-60 mm (-40/-50% as compared to LTA) but is estimable
around 200 mm since last October (-60%). In the Po valley the current campaign is the second driest since 1975 (the
absolute driest was 1990). Fortunately the weather forecast for the next weeks shows high probability to have
relevant water supplies.
Italia - (IT) NORD OVEST - (IT)

Cumulated active temperatures (0°C) Cumulated rain
600 400
------ Current period 350 ------ Current period
500 ------ Average (1975-2005) ------ Average (1975-2005)
300
400
250
300 200
150
200
100
100
50
0 0
01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Oct 01-Nov 01-Dec 01-Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar
Source: JRC-MARS database
11
Spain: A bad start of the season followed by a significant improvement in

March
Following a dry spell that lasted from December up to the third decade of January, climatic conditions improved
significantly in March in the main winter cereal production areas of Spain. There were diffuse rains in Castilla-Leon,
Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura and Andalucía and even some snow falls in the north-east (Aragon). Crops which
have been sown late in autumn 2006 and had suffered from the water shortages in the emergence and first tillering
phases should have taken advantage of the recovery of topsoil moisture. Temperatures, which usually see a marked
distinction between the north and south of the country, were, this year, uniformly high, with the minimum levels
systematically above the 0 degrees limit for most of the period. In mid of March there was a reduction in
precipitation, especially in the south, but it was soon recovered in the last decade of the month, when rainfall
picked up again especially across the south west regions. This break of precipitation in the course of a rather wet
winter season could actually be considered positive for field preparation works in view of spring crops planting.
Overall conditions can be considered positive for winter cereals. Expected yield for durum wheat takes into account
the favourable condition and stands at 2.5 t/ha, significantly increased on 2006 (+40%) but also on the 5 yrs average
(2 t/ha), which is however affected by the disastrous 2005 and 2006 season. Soft wheat, mostly concentrated in the
north of the country, is estimated at 3 t/ha (11% on 2006) on the same trend as durum wheat but affected by the
drier conditions in the east of the country. Winter barley yield is expected at 2.6 t/ha (+2.8 % on 2006).
Relative Soil Moisture for Wheat in ANDALUCIA (ES) CASTILLA Y LEON - (ES)
140 Daily Rainfall and Snow
11
120 10 RAIN
9
100 SNOW
8
7
mm/mm
80
6
60 5
4
40 3
20 2
1
0 0
Avg +2St_dev -2St_dev 2001 2000 2007
15-Jan 15-Feb 15-Mar
CASTILLA Y LEON - (ES) CATALUNA - (ES)

Cumulated rain Minimum daily temperatures
100
10 +2Stdev
80 ------ Average (1975-2005) 7
Average
60 4 (1975-2005)
1
40 -2Stdev
-2
20
-5
0 -8
15-Jan 15-Feb 15-Mar 15-Jan 15-Feb 15-Mar
12
Portugal: Climate improves going into spring with a positive outlook for
crops
Winter 2007 in Portugal has had a climatic evolution similar to that of neighbouring Spain. The sowing season had
been hampered and delayed by intense rain causing access problems for machinery. The period that followed, until
the end of January, saw a sensible reduction in rainfall but, considering that there was a short cold spell, conditions
should not have affected crops in the dormancy phase. Precipitation picked up again in the second and third
decade of February, more significantly in the west and north part of the country (Norte). The evolution to the end of
March saw again a reduction of precipitation especially in the south. Since these areas are the most relevant for the
cultivation of winter cereals, this trend, coinciding with the beginning of the shooting phases could negatively
affect crops. Considering the variability of the first months of 2007 and the uncertainties of the season ahead the
estimate for soft wheat is the order of 1.8 t/ha, slightly increased with respect to the 5 yrs average , but significantly
lower than 2006 (2.33 t/ha). Winter barley, developing later should have been less affected by the dry period of at
the beginning of March and taken benefit from the latest rains. Yield forecast is for 1.6 t/ha.
Relative Soil Moisture for Wheat in ALENTEJO (PT) NORTE - (PT)

140 Daily Rainfall and Snow
120 36
RAIN
32
100 28 SNOW
24
mm/mm
80
20
60
16
40 12
8
20
4
0 0
Avg +2St_dev -2St_dev 2001 2000 2007 Source: JRC-MARS database
13
Greece: Very dry conditions in January and February, improving in March

Winter 2007 started with a rain deficit over most of the country. Precipitation during the month of January was over
60% lower than the long term average of the same period and this was reported to be the driest January in 50 years.
Conditions were worse in the east, in Kentriki Makedonia which is also the bread basket of the country; here the
overall cumulated moisture deficit was over 50 mm. The drought started easing in February and great part of the
deficit was recovered within the last decade of March. Just as January and February ranked among the worst of the
last 32 years in terms of precipitation, the last 2 decades of March, were among the best in the same length of time.
This trend was reported over most of the main agricultural areas of the country from Anatoliki Makedonia to
Thessalia and the Adriatic coast. Temperatures to present are higher than normal for most of the period with a
decreasing North-South trend. The described conditions are conducive to an early brake of vernalization of winter
cereals and, at this point in time, the climatic conjuncture with sufficient moisture in the topsoil and warm weather
can be considered favourable to crop development. The same considerations are valid for barley even though it is
still early due to the delayed development. Given the precocity in development of wheat, the risk of damages due
to late frost or the return of dry spells is significant and so is the susceptibility to pest and diseases. In light of this
climatic trend the expected yield for durum wheat is estimated at around 2 t/ha, slightly increased on the 5 years
average. Soft wheat which is more common in the north-west is forecasted at 2.9 t/ha. For barley the expected yield
stands at around 2.35 t/ha, with a slight increase on 2006.
Average values of Mean C-Tmean (°C) ANATOLIKI MAKEDONIA THRAKI -

Cumulated rain
8
120
Nuts code: GR11 ANATOLIKI MAKEDONIA THRAKI
7 100
------ Average (1975-2005)
6 80
5 60
4 40
3
20
2
0
1996
1980
1993
1985
1982
2003
1987
2000
2006
1992
1991
1997
1981
1998
1983
2004
1984
2005
1986
1999
1989
1979
1990
1978
1988
1994
2002
1995
1977
2007
2001
1976
1975
Year Avg +Stdev -Stdev
KENTRIKI MAKEDONIA - (GR) THESSALIA - (GR)

mm Daily Rainfall and Snow in grid29/03/2007 nr. 37079 Minimum daily temperatures
20 12 +2Stdev
18 RAIN
SNOW
16 8
14 Average
(1975-2005)
12 4
10
8 0 -2Stdev
6
4 -4
2
0 -8
1-Feb 1-Mar 15-Jan 15-Feb 15-Mar
Source: JRC-MARS database Source: JRC-MARS database
14
Denmark, Sweden and Finland: unstable February, mild and wet March in DK
and SE, quite cold February in FIN.
In DK and SE, in both months the weather was quite variable despite in general milder than seasonal temperatures
occurred (mainly in March). During the period, the minimum values remained generally higher than seasonal values
but however some degrees below zero. Some colder north atlantic air mass erupted, with associated snowy events:
light snow was recorded during the first and third decade of February. In March, maximum values progressively
increased and also unseasonable high temperatures were recorded: around 15-16°C on 12th of March. Those
conditions probably interrupted the winter cereals’ dormancy. At the end of March the cumulated GDD showed a
significant surplus: more than 200° GDD as compared to the climatic average (80° GDD).
Rainy and light snowy events were quite frequent during the period and especially in March. Consequently, an
abundant water supply was recorded, but also lower levels of solar radiation, particularly relevant at that latitude.
In Finland, again February was characterized by changeable and quite cold conditions: consecutive cold waves
determined also extreme events (<-30°C). Then, in March rapidly the temperatures increased and the maximum
reached values largely above the seasonal average. However, some snowy events occurred and at the end of March
and the snow cover was still partially present, prolonging the crops dormancy stage.
Danmark - (DK) ITA-SUOMI - (FI)

Cumulated active temperatures (0°C) Minimum daily temperatures
250 7
+2Stdev
200 ------ Average (1975-2005) 0
-7 Average
150 (1975-2005)
-14
100 -2Stdev
-21
50
-28
0 -35
01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Feb 01-Mar
15
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania: two frost waves in February, warmer than usual in
March
The precipitation received during this period was slightly below the long term average.
The solar radiation was above the long term average.
As a result of lower precipitation and increased evaporation capacity the climatic water balance was below normal
level, but till the end of March it remained positive (with a decreasing graduation from North to South).
The thermal resources available for the considered period were slightly above normal and the number of days with
temperatures below 0°C was with 10 days lower than in an average year.
The remote sensing data suggest a higher than normal growth of vegetation.
For Estonia the development stage is above long term average. For this indicator the most similar year is 2002.
Eesti - (EE) Development Stage for Wheat in Latvija (LV)

Minimum daily temperatures
+2Stdev
3 200
Average
-3 (1975-2005) 150
-2Stdev
units
-9
100
-15
50
-21
-27 0
01-Feb 01-Mar
Lietuva - (LT)
Non-irrigated arable land
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Avg 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007

0.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Source: CNDVI based on SPOT Vegetation - JRC MARS database
16
Poland: high temperatures recorded in the whole country

The country has experienced a mild end of winter and a warm spring. Cumulated active temperatures for winter
crops since the beginning of February are more than 200% higher than the long-term average. The northern part of
the Country experienced two cold air irruptions around 11th and 23rd February. The intensity of these events has
been higher in the north eastern regions than in the north western ones. Rainfalls have been characterized by slight
although almost daily events; this is partially able to explain the irradiation levels, in most cases below the long-
term values.
Winter wheat is anticipating the end of the tillering phase by about 1-month; in the south western regions it is
entering the stem elongation stage. In some regions, problems related to soil moisture excess could have been
confirmed. Rapeseed is at the middle of the vegetative phase with about a 3-week advance. Also for this crop, the
soil water content is reaching high values in many parts of the Country.
ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE - (PL) ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE - (PL)

Daily Rainfall and Snow Maximum daily temperatures
12
11 RAIN 17
10 +2Stdev
SNOW
9 12
8
7 7
6 Average
5 (1975-2005)
2
4
3
2 -3
-2Stdev
1
0 -8
Cumulated and Daily Radiation

ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE - (PL) 300
13 250
11
200
9
150
7
100
5
50
3
1 0
------ Current period ------ Long-term
1-Feb
17
Czech and Slovak Republics: 2007 started as a warm and wet season
Meteorological conditions experienced by Czech and Slovak Republics are similar to those described for Austria.
Cumulative rainfalls have started exceeding the average values from the end of February and are now about 50 %
higher than the long-term average. Maximum values of cumulated rainfall within the two countries have been
recorded in the western part of Slovak Republic (Bratislavsky and Zapadne) and in the Eastern part of the Czech
Republic (Severovychod, Jihovychod, and Stredni), therefore at the border between the two Countries. Frequent
rainfall events have been associated with irradiance level not very high, especially between the end of February and
the beginning of March. Temperatures are depicting an extraordinary year, although the vegetative phase so
shorter than the average could indicate a sub-optimal potential from a productive point of view. Like for Austria, the
combined effect of the abundant rainfall and of the warm thermal conditions could possibly have a triggering effect
on diseases.
CNDVI (non-irrigated arable land Corine class) shows values much higher than the average, because of the
anticipated crops cycles which are leading to an early canopy development. Winter wheat has entered the stem
elongation stage with about a 1-month advance with respect to the long – term average. Some problems due to
soil water content excess could have verified in some areas because of the combined effect of melting snow and
precipitations. For the same reasons, spring barley sowings could have encountered some difficulties related to the
accessibility to the field for the machines. Rapeseed is in the second part of a vegetative phase which is expected to
be more than 20-day shorter than the average.
Ceska Republika - (CZ) Ceska Republika - (CZ)

250 Cumulated active temperatures (0°C) Minimum daily temperatures
------ Current period 7
+2Stdev
200 ------ Average (1975-2005) 3
150 -1
Average
-5 (1975-2005)
100
-9
50
-13 -2Stdev
0 -17
Slovenská Republika - (SK)

Slovenská Republika - (SK) Non-irrigated arable land
Daily Rainfall and Snow
12 0.8
11 RAIN
10
SNOW
9 0.6
8
7
6 0.4
5
4
3 0.2
2 Avg 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007
1
0.0
0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
01-Feb 01-Mar
Source: JRC-MARS database Source: CNDVI based on SPOT Vegetation - JRC MARS database
18
Austria: extraordinary high temperatures recorded since the beginning of the

year
The country experienced temperatures considerably higher than the average for the whole considered period. Daily
thermal minima were always above the average and maxima fell below the average only for a couple of days
around the 21st of March, due to a storm event. The extraordinary availability of thermal units is shortening the
crops vegetative phase. Cumulated rainfalls are exceeding the standard values of about 100 %. Problems due to soil
moisture excess could affect the crops because of the combined effect of rapid melting snow due to high
temperatures and abundant rainfall. This, combined with the discussed high temperatures, could depict a
favourable condition for diseases. No frost damages are expected in all of the country.
Winter wheat: a 1-month advance in development is simulated for winter wheat because of the high temperature.
This is an extraordinary value: the current development stage – beginning of stem elongation – has been reached
with more than 1-decade advance also compared to the value corresponding to the average minus 2 standard
deviations. Soil moisture excesses are simulated between February and March.
Spring barley is probably experiencing unfavourable sowing conditions in some areas because of the soil moisture
excess which is threatening field accessibility. In some cases, mild temperatures could have induced farmers to
anticipate the sowings: this could have avoided problems related to field-accessibility.
About a 1-month advance in development is simulated also for rapeseed, currently in the second part of the
vegetative phase.
Österreich - (AT) Development Stage for Wheat in Österreich (AT)
Cumulated rain
140
120 ------ Current period 200
------ Average (1975-2005)
100
150
80
units
60 100
40
50
20
0 0
01-Feb 01-Mar
Avg +2St_dev -2St_dev 2005 2006 2007
Slovenia: temperatures higher than average

Temperatures higher than the average characterized February and March. In particular, daily minima have always
maintained at values between 1 and 2 standard deviations higher than the long-term average. Cumulated
precipitations since the beginning of February are about 100% higher than the mean value, mainly because of the
important event verified on 19th March.
Winter wheat is at the mid-stem elongation stage with a 1-month advance compared to the 5-year average.
Although the abundant precipitations recorded since the beginning of February, no significant problems related to
soil moisture excess are simulated. Spring barley should not have suffered for the storm event occurred at the end
of the second decade of March. Extraordinarily warm thermal conditions are pushing rapeseed development to
pass the mid of the vegetative phase with a 25-day advance.
Slovenija - (SI)
Cumulated rain
160
140 ------ Current period
120 ------ Average (1975-2005)
100
80
60
40
20
0
01-Feb 01-Mar
19
Hungary: 1-month advance is simulated for winter crops cycles

Temperatures strongly higher than the average have been recorded since the beginning of the year, inducing
winter crops to strong advances in the crop cycles. Also precipitations have been higher than the average (almost
+60 % compared to the long-term average for the whole Country), especially in the western Regions. Main rainfall
events have been concentrated in February in the eastern regions (e.g. Eszak-Alfold), in March in the western ones
(e.g. Nyugat-Dunantul). South eastern regions experienced satisfactory irradiance levels.
Winter wheat entered the stem elongation phase with about a 1-month advance with respect to the 5-year average.
In spite of the precipitations higher than the average, simulated soil moisture is close to the average. This suggests
that no problems related to field accessibility should have affected spring barley sowings. Rapeseed is in the second
part of the vegetative phase and presents a 25-day advance compared to the norm.
DEL-DUNANTUL - (HU) Development Stage for Rape seed in Magyar (HU)

10
+2Stdev 200
6
2 150
units
Average
-2 (1975-2005) 100
-6
50
-10 -2Stdev
-14 0
01-Feb 01-Mar
Cumulated and Daily Radiation

DEL-ALFOLD - (HU)
400
15
350
13 300
11 250
200
9
150
7
100
5 50
3 0
------ Current period ------ Long-term
1-Feb
20
Romania: the warmest winter in the last 30 years

A mild February – March (the sum of active temperatures above long terms averages was enough for the unfolding
of two new leaves) ended the warmest winter from the last 30 years. Simulated development of winter wheat was
with about two standard deviations above the normal (the most similar year till now is 2002).
The precipitation received during February was slightly above the long term average and the two rain events from
February improved partially the climatic water balance (-5 mm for March –February 2007, which is above the long
term average of -13 mm and much better than -48 mm recorded for the similar period of the reference year 2002).
Average values of Mean C-Tmin (°C) România - (RO)

Cumulated rain
1
80
Nuts code: RO România
0
60 ------ Average (1975-2005)

-1
-2 40
-3
20
-4
-5
0
01-Feb 01-Mar
1985
1996
1987
1976
2003
1993
1999
1978
2006
1979
1984
1982
1980
1992
1981
2002
1989
1997
2000
2005
1986
1977
2004
1990
1995
1994
1998
1991
1983
1988
2001
2007
1975
România - (RO)
Cumulated active temperatures
400
(0°C)
350 ------ Current period
300 ------ Average (1975-2005)
250
200
150
100
50
0
01-Feb 01-Mar
21
Bulgaria: the warmest winter in the last 31 years

The mild period February – March was the warmest winter of the last 31 years. During these last two months 16
days with minimum temperatures below 0°C were recorded (compared with a long term average of 29 days) and
only one day with the minimum temperature below -5°C (long term average for this threshold is 14 days). During
the considered period, the sum of active temperatures (Tbase=0°C) exceeded the normal level with more than 160
degree days and this was enough to provide a gain of two leaves on the main stem of winter wheat plants.
The development stage is anticipated for all the winter crops. It is expected that the soil moisture will decrease
quicker than usual due to an increasing water demand of better developed crops. Expressed as an average for the
all agricultural areas of the country the precipitation received since beginning of February are close to normal level.
The wetter than normal areas are located along the southern of Danube, meanwhile the agricultural areas from
eastern Bulgaria were drier than usual.
The climatic water balance (calculated since 1st November) was lower than usual, but still positive.
The level of solar radiation was close to normal, excepting some northern areas which were slightly above. The
higher values of CNDVI based on SPOT Vegetation data are in agreement with the simulation of an anticipated
development stage and a high LAI.
Bulgaria - (BG) Development Stage for Wheat in Bulgaria (BG)
Cumulated active temperatures

450
(0°C)
400 200
350 ------ Average (1975-2005)
300 150
250
units
200 100
150
100 50
50
0 0
01-Feb 01-Mar
22
3.2. BLACK SEA AREA
Turkey: Dry and warm in the west, cold and wet in the north east
The winter climate over the main cereal production areas of western and central Anatolia was characterized by
alternating periods of intense rain and dry spells. From January to the beginning of February intense rain and snow
spread from northern Turkey south-eastward. Dry conditions continued to prevail in the west (Bati Marmara) and in
the south-west of the country, particularly on the Aegean coastal regions with a reduction of over 20% in
precipitation with respect to the long term average. Throughout this period the Black Sea area was not affected and
precipitation remained in the norm. There was a dry spell between mid February to early March followed however
by a pickup in precipitation in the last decade of this month. All through winter, average temperatures remained in
the norm, slightly higher in western and central Turkey, lower in the east. The start of the shooting phase of wheat
should be favoured by the present conditions of temperature and top soil moisture. Shooting of burley, the
cultivation of which prevails in the west, is slightly delayed and its outcome depends on the climatic developments
of the next few weeks.
Given the described conditions, the expected yield of winter wheat is quite uncertain and could still be influenced
by such hazards as late frost events in April or dry spell in central Anatolia during May/June. At the moment a
reasonable estimate is on the average levels of 2.24 t/ha for wheat and 2.5 t/ha for barley.
BATI ANADOLU - (TR) BATI ANADOLU - (TR)

Daily Rainfall and Snow Minimum daily temperatures
18 9 +2Stdev
16
RAIN 5
14
SNOW Average
12 1 (1975-2005)
10
-3
8
-2Stdev
6 -7
4 -11
2
0 -15
15-Jan 15-Feb 15-Mar 01-Feb 01-Mar
BATI MARMARA - (TR) Relative Soil Moisture for Wheat in EGE (TR)
Cumulated rain
100 140
------ Current period 120
80 ------ Average (1975-2005)
100
60
mm/mm
80
40 60
40
20
20
0 0
01-Feb 01-Mar
Avg +2St_dev -2St_dev 2001 2000 2007
23
Ukraine: Mild winter, dry in south-eastern

Wheat forecast:
The highest degree development of winter crops is in advance with more than one month. The year with the most
similar developmental pattern for the period January - March is 2002. In contrast 2002, the number of days with
temperatures below -10°C was with about 40% lower (7 days for the period November 2006 March 2007, compared
with 12 days from the winter 2001-2002). The global radiation was close to the long term average.
The rain received during February -March was lower than usual (less one standard deviation) but this period can be
considered as exceptional dry only for the south eastern areas. No good rains are foreseen for the first 10 days of
April, except a slight alleviation (4th April) for the south-eastern areas of concern. The precipitation regime for the
considered period from the comparison year (2002) was slighter better but the climatic water balance since January
2007 was better than in 2002. There are still good chances for an average winter wheat yield.
Conditions for the spring field labours are somehow advantaged by the drier than usual soil but not optimal for
crop emergence.
120
Development Stage for Wheat in Ukrayina (UA) Cumulated values of C-RAINFALL (mm)
Period: 01/02 - 31/03 Corine Class: Cultivated and managed
100
Nuts code: UA Ukrayina
200
80
150
60
units
100
40
50
20
0 0
1975
1986
1991
1982
1989
2003
2007
1997
1990
2002
1985
1987
1976
1996
1992
1998
1999
1983
2000
2004
1995
1984
1988
1993
1994
1979
1980
2005
1977
1981
2001
2006
1978
Avg +2St_dev -2St_dev 2002 2006 2007
24
3.3. EASTERN COUNTRIES
Belarus: two frost waves in February, warmer than usual in March

The minimum temperature dropped twice below -20°C (11 and 23rd of February). Locally, the level of -30°C was
reached in the north-western Belarus, but the optimal snow cover (around 15 cm) reduced partially the impact of
the frost. After the first week of March the increasing of temperatures re-launched the growth of winter crops (the
sum of active temperatures was enough for the unfolding of one new leaf) but also increased the vulnerability to
late frosts due to dehardening. Simulated development of winter wheat was with about two standard deviations
above the normal.
The precipitation received during this period was close to the long term average till the last ten days of March when
it dropped below normal (-20mm).
Belarus - (BY)
6 +2Stdev
-6 Average
(1975-2005)
-12
-2Stdev
-18
-24
01-Feb 01-Mar
Russia: good conditions for winter crops
The period under analysis is the last stage of the dormant period of winter crops in all regions of European Russia.
The winter started later than normal, and the period before was optimal for winter crops' development. The remote
sensing indicators demonstrate good status of winter crops before the winter.
The maximum of the cold air invasion took place at the end of January, when the minimal air temperature in many
regions was lower than - 20 degrees. However, lowing of air temperature was accompanied by snow. As a result the
winter crops were protected from frost action in the main winter crop growing regions. Only in Tatarstan, the
thickness of snow cover was extremely low, which should lead to winter crop damage in this region. The map below
demonstrates difference in risk of crop damage during the current winter (colour), and difference of the situation
with the previous winter (hatchings). In general, the current winter was more favourable for winter crop than the
previous winter.
The warm December and 1st half of January should lead to a high soil moisture content, which creates good
conditions for the spring period of crop growth.
It is likely to be that the percentage of winter crops killed by frost during this winter is lower than in previous years.
Only in Tatarstan unfavourable winter conditions could affect nearly 30-50% of winter crops. However, in general
for the European part of Russia the meteorological conditions were close to optimal for winter crops during the
current winter period, and were better than in the previous season.
25
Risk of winter crop damage during the winter

(Tatarstan - red line; Krasnodar - blue line)
80
amount of potentially risky days per winter
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
year
26
3.4. MAGHREB COUNTRIES
Maghreb: Recent rainfalls are supporting cereal development

Western Maghreb (Morocco) reported normal rainfall levels from the third decade of January to February. Conditions started
becoming drier going into March, especially in the agricultural regions east of Gibraltar (Centre-North) and in the South.
These events coincided with the delicate phases of tillering and heading of wheat. Recent rains however could partly help
recover on available soil moisture and support the crops in the flowering and yield formation phases. Yield forecast for wheat
in Morocco is 1.3 t/ha increased on 2006 (+30% but reduced on the 5yrs’ average. The same trend is expected for barley (0.74
t/ha). Looking eastward to Algeria and Tunisia, January was characterized by scarce rainfall along the Mediterranean coast,
from Algeria to Tunisia. With average temperatures below 8-9°C, crops were still in vernalization and the water deficit should
not have affected development. From February onward rainfall was abundant on most of the coastal regions of Algeria,
improving in the east, over Tunisia, where it also rained inland. Temperatures were reported normal for the whole season.
Wheat and also barley, past the flowering stage should have taken advantage of these conditions. Expected yield of wheat in
Algeria stands at 1.27 t/ha improved on 2006 and on the same level as in the 5 yrs; a similar trend is expected for barley in
Algeria and for wheat and barley in Tunisia, 1.72 t/ha and 1 t/ha respectively.
al-Maghribiya - (MA) Tunesie - (TN)

Cumulated rain Cumulated rain
140 160
120 ------ Current period 140 ------ Current period
------ Average (1975-2005) 120 ------ Average (1975-2005)
100
100
80
80
60
60
40 40
20 20
0 0
20-Jan 20-Feb 20-Mar 20-Jan 20-Feb 20-Mar
al Djazair - (DZ)
200
Cumulated values of C-RAINFALL (mm)

180
Period: 15/02 - 30/03 Corine Class: Cultivated and managed Minimum daily temperatures
160
Nuts code: TN03 Banzart 13 +2Stdev
140
120
10
Average
100
7 (1975-2005)
80
60
4 -2Stdev
40
1
20
0
-2
1977
1994
1997
1981
2002
1990
1978
2000
1980
1999
1995
1998
1991
1989
2003
2001
1984
1987
2004
1975
1988
1983
1992
1993
1986
2006
1979
1985
1982
2007
2005
1976
1996
Year Avg +Stdev -Stdev Source: JRC-MARS database
27
4. SPOT-VEGETATION satellite analysis

Well advanced vegetation development throughout Europe
The NDVI map on arable lands (Corine Class) is showing the relative differences with the NDVI values of the second
March decade taken from the average from 1998 until 2006. Positive deviations from the long term average can be
found almost throughout the whole of Europe. Biomass accumulation is especially advanced in central and eastern
Europe.
This is as well reflected in the profiles for the non irrigated arable land with exceptional high values. The profile for
Thüringen in Germany shows biomass accumulation since the second decade of February with values high above
the average. The same is true for the NDVI values of the Centre of France. Values are increasing since the second
decade of January and showing an advancement of 5 decades (second decade of May) compared to the long term
average. The positive trend that has been shown for Castilla Y Leon (Spain) in January continued throughout
February and March with biomass accumulation and an advancement of three decades compared to last year. A
comparable situation is also found for Lombardia in Italy with constant biomass accumulation throughout the
winter months.
28
THUERINGEN - (DE) CENTRE - (FR)

Non-irrigated arable land Non-irrigated arable land
0,8 0,8
0,6 0,6
0,4 0,4
0,2 0,2
Avg 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 Avg 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007
0,0 0,0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Source: CNDVI based on SPOT Vegetation - JRC MARS database Source: CNDVI based on SPOT Vegetation - JRC MARS database
CASTILLA Y LEON - (ES) LOMBARDIA - (IT)

Non-irrigated arable land Non-irrigated arable land
0,8 0,8
0,6 0,6
0,4 0,4
0,2 0,2
Avg 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 Avg 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007
0,0 0,0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Source: CNDVI based on SPOT Vegetation - JRC MARS database Source: CNDVI based on SPOT Vegetation - JRC MARS database
29
5. DEVELOPMENT STAGE OF WINTER WHEAT AND RAPESEED
30
6. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATIONS IN FEBRUARY 2007
2.4
31
7. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATIONS IN MARCH 2007
32

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MARS bulletin – 3rd April 2007

For further information please contact:

1. Crop yield forecasts

TOTAL CEREALS 4.7 5.0 4.8 +5.9 +4.4

2.1 TEMPERATURES AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION

2.2 RAIN AND CLIMATIC WATER BALANCE

2.3 WEATHER FORECASTS FOR NEXT DAYS (APRIL 4-12)

TEMPERATURES: Temporary decrease in Spain and Morocco, followed by a progressive increase

RAIN: beneficial rain in Mediterranean areas

3. Campaign analysis at country level

France: anticipated crops development under optimal conditions

1.5 1990 1998 2004

Year Avg +Stdev -Stdev -2.0 1987

Germany: exceptional anticipated crop development with optimal soil

Average values of Mean C-Tmean (°C)

Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxembourg: exceptionally mild and wet

8 11 Nuts code: BE België/Belgique/Belgien

Development Stage for Rape seed in Standardized Precipitation Index

Italia - (IT) NORD OVEST - (IT)

Spain: A bad start of the season followed by a significant improvement in

CASTILLA Y LEON - (ES) CATALUNA - (ES)

Relative Soil Moisture for Wheat in ALENTEJO (PT) NORTE - (PT)

Greece: Very dry conditions in January and February, improving in March

Average values of Mean C-Tmean (°C) ANATOLIKI MAKEDONIA THRAKI -

Year Avg +Stdev -Stdev

KENTRIKI MAKEDONIA - (GR) THESSALIA - (GR)

Danmark - (DK) ITA-SUOMI - (FI)

Eesti - (EE) Development Stage for Wheat in Latvija (LV)

Avg 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007

Source: CNDVI based on SPOT Vegetation - JRC MARS database

Poland: high temperatures recorded in the whole country

ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE - (PL) ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE - (PL)

Cumulated and Daily Radiation

Ceska Republika - (CZ) Ceska Republika - (CZ)

Slovenská Republika - (SK)

Austria: extraordinary high temperatures recorded since the beginning of the

Slovenia: temperatures higher than average

Hungary: 1-month advance is simulated for winter crops cycles

DEL-DUNANTUL - (HU) Development Stage for Rape seed in Magyar (HU)

Cumulated and Daily Radiation

Romania: the warmest winter in the last 30 years

Average values of Mean C-Tmin (°C) România - (RO)

60 ------ Average (1975-2005)

Year Avg +Stdev -Stdev

Bulgaria: the warmest winter in the last 31 years

Bulgaria - (BG) Development Stage for Wheat in Bulgaria (BG)

Cumulated active temperatures

3.2. BLACK SEA AREA

BATI ANADOLU - (TR) BATI ANADOLU - (TR)

Ukraine: Mild winter, dry in south-eastern

3.3. EASTERN COUNTRIES

Belarus: two frost waves in February, warmer than usual in March

Russia: good conditions for winter crops

Risk of winter crop damage during the winter

3.4. MAGHREB COUNTRIES

Maghreb: Recent rainfalls are supporting cereal development

al-Maghribiya - (MA) Tunesie - (TN)

Cumulated values of C-RAINFALL (mm)

Year Avg +Stdev -Stdev Source: JRC-MARS database

4. SPOT-VEGETATION satellite analysis

THUERINGEN - (DE) CENTRE - (FR)

CASTILLA Y LEON - (ES) LOMBARDIA - (IT)

5. DEVELOPMENT STAGE OF WINTER WHEAT AND RAPESEED

6. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATIONS IN FEBRUARY 2007