DLL Engineering Simple Reliability Calculations

Empirical Failure Rate

Calculate a failure rate and confidence limits based on your failure history
Input Data
Time period for observations 1 years
Number of failures observed 5
Results Failure rates Equivalent MTBFs
Best estimate of failure rate 5.67 per year 1546 hours
90% confidence interval - upper bound 10.51 per year 834 hours
90% confidence interval - lower bound 2.61 per year 3355 hours
Use this calculation to find out the failure rate and MTBF from your observed failure history.
Notice how the confidence bounds move in towards the best estimate as you collect more data.
This calculation assumes you are counting failures over a given time period, as is the usual case,
rather than measuring the time period for a given number of failures.

Note: If you see a "#NAME?" error and you are using Excel 2007 or earlier, please contact DLL Engineering for alternative file.
 Tel. +44 (0)1824 702178 / 07944 448334
dan@dllengineering.co.uk

For more sophisticated analysis of failure data,

including analysing trends in failure data to
help identify causes of failure, please contact
DLL Engineering.
DLL Engineering Simple Reliability Calculations

Availability
Calculate Availability or 'Uptime' for your equipment
Input Data
Failure rate 2 per year 4383 MTBF hrs
Repair time (MTTR) 48 hours
Planned maintenance time 72 hours per year
Results
Availability excl. planned mtce 98.92%
Availability incl. planned mtce 98.10%
Use this calculation to find out the Availability (also known as 'Uptime') for your plant or
equipment, based on failure rate and MTTR (Mean Time to Repair). Availability can be
calculated excluding or including downtime for planned maintenance.

Reliability
Calculate Reliability i.e. probability of no failures in a given time period
Input Data
Failure rate 0.01 per year
Time period 10 years
Results
Probability of no failures 90.48% This term is called 'Reliability'
Probability of one or more failures 9.52%
Use this calculation to find out the Reliability (the probability of no failures) in a given time
period. This is used for low-likelihood high-consequence events to determine if the
likelihood is acceptable. The calculation assumes constant failure rate.
 Tel. +44 (0)1824 702178 / 07944 448334
dan@dllengineering.co.uk

For more detailed analysis of Availability and

Reliability of engineering systems (whether
simple or complex systems), including varying
failure rates and optimisation of maintenance
downtime, please contact DLL Engineering.
DLL Engineering Simple Reliability Calculations

Probability of r failures in a given time period

Calculate the probability of multiple failures over time
Input Data
Failure rate 0.1
Time period 5
Number of failures of interest r 2
Results
Probability of 2 failures 7.58%
Probability of 2 or more failures 9.02%
Use this calculation to determine the probability of a particular number of failures occuring
over a given time period. Usually, 'r or more failures' is of most relevance. The calculation
assumes constant failure rate.

Probability of r failures in n independent events

Calculate the probability of multiple failures in a number of events
Input Data
Probability of 1 failure in 1 event 0.01
Number of independent events n 50
Number of failures of interest r 3
Results
Probability of 3 failures 1.22%
Probability of 3 or more failures 1.38%
Use this calculation to determine the probability of a particular number of failures r out of a
total number of possible failures ('events'). For example, the number of events could be a
number of identical components each with a given failure probability. Usually, 'r or more
failures' is of most relevance. Events are assumed to be independent: in practice common
mode failure should also be addressed.

Note: If you see a "#NAME?" error and you are using Excel 2007 or earlier, please contact DLL Engineering for alternative file.
 Tel. +44 (0)1824 702178 / 07944 448334
dan@dllengineering.co.uk

For more detailed analysis, including varying

failure rates and consideration of Common
Mode Failure, please contact DLL Engineering.
DLL Engineering Simple Reliability Calculations

Has Failure Rate Really Changed?

Determine the confidence in whether underlying failure rate has really changed
Input Data
Old number of failures per time period 6
New number of failures per time period 4 Tel. +44 (0)1824 70
Results
Confidence that failure rate has changed 58.6%
When we see a reduction in failures (or safety incidents) from one period to the next we tend to think For further analysis of per
that performance has improved. Conversely, when we see an increase in failures we think statistical hypothesis testi
performance has worsened. In practice, where the number of events is relatively small, the effects of whether changes have be
random chance can easily mislead us. This calculation shows the confidence level that a change in contact DLL Engineering.
number of failures in a given time period truly represents a change in underlying failure rate. For
Engineering purposes, to really believe that the failure rate has changed we need to see a result of at
least 90%. Notice how the confidence increases when larger numbers are used.

Note: If you see a "#NAME?" error and you are using Excel 2007 or earlier, please contact DLL Engineering for alternative file.
 Tel. +44 (0)1824 702178 / 07944 448334
dan@dllengineering.co.uk

For further analysis of performance data, and

statistical hypothesis testing to determine
whether changes have been successful, please
contact DLL Engineering.