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 Political Science
Research Methods
Eighth Edition

Janet ButtolphJohnson
H. T. Reynolds
Jason D. Mycoff
University of Delaware

($)SAGE I c!!!s
Los Angeles I London I New Delhi
Singapore I Washington DC
 . .

Appendixes 605 Appendix D: F Distribution 611

Appendix A: Normal Curve Tail
Glossary 617
Probabilities 605
Index 625
Appendix B: Critical Values from
t Distribution 607
Appendix C: Chi-Squared Distribution
Values for Various Right-Tail
Probabilities 609
----• Tables, Figures,
and Features
Tables 6-5 Mail Survey Incentive Experiment 183
6-6 Results from Hypothetical Quasi-
1-1 Independent Expenditures, 2000-2014 39
Experiment 188
1-2 Casualty Sensitivity by Mission
6-7 Haiti and Dominican Republic
Type and Inequality Cue 43
Compared 190
2-1 Methodological Perspectives in 6-8 Natural Experiment "Results" 191
Political Science 70 6-9 Randomized and Quasi-Experiments
Compared 195
4-1 Voting by Democrats, Republicans, 6-10 Some Observational and Statistical
and Others for a Sales Tax Increase 120 Designs 197
4-2 Concept Development: The 6-11 Mills Method of Difference 201
Relationship between Economic
Development and Democracy 124 7-1 Fifty Random Numbers 221
5-1 Correlations of Leadership Power
7-2 An Abbreviated List of Supreme Court
Nominees, 1787-2011 222
Measures 142
7-3 Stratified Sample of Student Majors 226
5-2 Interitem Association Validity Test
143 7-4 Properties of Samples of Different Sizes 239
of a Measure of Liberalism
5-3 Hypothetical Index for Measuring
Freedom in Countries 152 9-1 Policy Agendas Project Policy Topics 280
5-4 Provisional Likert Scale to Measure 9-2 Policy Agendas Project Datasets 281
Concept of Liberalism 156 9-3 Presidential Personality Types 284
5-5 Guttman Scale of Attitudes toward
Abortion 158 10-1 Types and Characteristics of Surveys 302
5-6 Items Measuring Landowner Attitudes
toward Riparian Buffers on Their 11-1 Inequality and Socioeconomic Measures
Streamside Property, Sorted into for Twenty-One Developed Democracies 350
Dimensions Using Factor Analysis 161 11-2 Frequency Distribution: Beliefs about
Power in the United States 352
6-1 Voting Intention by Ad Exposure 169 11-3 The Effect of Missing Data on
6-2 Results of Hypothetical Media Percentages 354
Experiment 175 11-4 The Effect of Missing Data on
6-3 Pre- and Posttest Scores in Non- Percentages: Large Effect 355
Repeated-Measurement Experiment 181 11-5 Hypothetical Incomes in Two
6-4 Pre- and Posttest Scores in Repeated- Communities 357
Measurement Experiment 182 11-6 Calculation. of the Median 359
xi
 ..
xii POLITICALSCIENCERESEARCHMETHODS

11-7 Deviations from the Mean 364 13-13 2008 Presidential Vote by Party 436
11-8 Calculation of the Variation and 13-14 Gays in the Military: A Gender Gap? 437
Standard Deviation for Three 13-15 Voter Turnout by Gender 443
Hypothetical Sample Populations 365 13-16 Voter Turnout by Social Class 443
11-9 Summary of Descriptive Statistjcs 368 13-17 Opinion on Civil Liberties:
11-10 Typical Presentation and Tolerance of Dissent 444
Exploratory Graphs 384 13-18 Observed and Expected Values
under Hypothesis of Independence 446
12-1 Types of Inferential Errors 391 13-19 Relationship between X and Y Based
12-2 Large-Sample 2-Tailed Test of a Mean 398 ·on Sample of 300 447
12-3 Large-Sample Test of a Proportion 403 13-20 Relationship between X and Y Based
12-4 Confidence Intervals Calculated for on Sample of 3,000 448
Four Different Confidence Levels 408 13-21 Large-Sample Difference-of-Means
12-5 Confidence Intervals for Various Test (Gender by Attitudes toward
Sample Sizes at 95 Percent Level the Military) 456
of Confidence 408 13-22 Small-Sample Difference-of-Means
Test 460
13-1 Levels of Measurement and Statistical . 13-23 Difference of Proportions Test
Procedures: A Summary 416 (Gender by Attitudes toward
13-2 Level of Partisanship: Donating "Feminists") 466
Money 421 13-24 Measurements on Y within
13-3 Level of Partisanship: Finding Three Categories of X 469
Compromise versus Sticking to 13-25 Typical ANOVATable Format 472
Your Convictions 424 13-26 ANOVA Results 473
13-4 Cross-Tabulation of Gender by 13-27 ANOVATable and F-Test 477
Party Identification 425 13-28 Predicted Gini Scores 489
13-5 Row Percentages Are Not the 13-29 Regression Sums of Square and
Same as Column.Percentages 426 R-Squared and r 492
13-6 Example of a Nil Relationship 13-30 Raw and Standardized Union Density
between Region and Opinions about Scores 498
Comprehensive Immigration Reform 427 13-31 Example of Raw Scores Converted
13-7 Example of a Perfect Relationship to Standardized Values 499
between Region and Comprehensive 13-32 Regression of Gini on Union Density 501
Immigration Reform 428 13-33 Summary Statistics for GDP and
13-8 Attitudes toward Gun Control by Literacy in Ninety-Seven Countries 503
Liberalism 429 13-34 Regression Results: Literacy on Income 505
13-9 Table with Concordant, Discordant, 13-35 Regression Estimates for Two Groups 507
and Tied Pairs 432 13-36 Supreme Court Justices 512
13-10 Perfect Positive and Negative 13-37 The Effects of Case Deletion 513
Relationships 434
13-11 Perfect Monotonic Relationship 435 14-1 Relationship between Attitudes
13-12 Perfect bul Not Monotonic toward Government Spending and
Relationship 435 Presidential Vote 520
 Tables,Figures,and Features xiii

14-2 Spurious Relationship between 15-1 Percentage of Women, White Women,

Attitudes and Presidential Voting and Women of Color in State
When Income ls Controlled 521 Legislature, 2010 586
14-3 Relationship between Attitudes and 15-2 Unstandardized Regression
Presidential Voting after Income Is Coefficients (and Standard Errors)
Controlled 522 for the Percentage of Women,
14-4 Total Relationship between White Women, and Women of
Region and School Prayer 523 Color in State Legislatures 597
14-5 Controlled or Contingent or
Conditional Relationships 525 Figures
14-6 Results of Regression of Inequality on 1-1 Redistribution Coefficients by
Union Density and Labor Protection 531 Average Voter Turnout 9
14-7 Observed and Predicted Gini 1-2 The Top 1 Percents Share of National
Scores and Residuals 533 Income, Mid-1970s versus Circa 2000 10
14-8 The Effects of Deleting a Case with 1-3 The Richest 1 Percent's Share of
a Large Residual 534 National Pretax Income, 1960-2007 11
14-9 Global Test 537 1-4 Negative Proportion of Negative
14-10 Full and Reduced Models with R2 539 and Positive Interruptions Received
14-11 99 Percent Confidence Intervals by Women from Men by Group
for Inequality Model 541 Decision Rule 21
14-12 US Supreme Court Justices and 1-5 Ratio of Women's to Mens Positively
Socioeconomic Background 543 Interrupted Speaking Turns,
14-13 Some Models Using Dummy Variables 545 Mixed Groups (Raw) 22
14-14 Supreme Court Decisions by 1-6 Trends in Personal Integrity Rights 24
Social Status 546 1-7 Civil Liberty Protection by
14-15 Raw and Standardized Inequality Data 557 Regime Type 26
14-16 Citizen Involvement in Democracy 1-8 Trends in Civil Liberties Protection,
Data 560 1979-2007 27
14-17 Marginal Distribution of 1-9 Probability of Strong Acceptance by
Political Contributions 560 Party ID and Party Cue 32
14-18 Modeling Binary Responses 563 1-10 Lobbying the House Commerce
14-19 Effects of Varying Age While Holding Committee: Public Interest Groups,
Income Constant on Predicted Private Interest Groups, and the
Donations 567 1997 NMQS Regulations 34
14-20 Effects of Varying Income While 1-11 Effects of Friendly Lobbying on
Holding Age Constant on Predicted Legislative Activity 35
Donations 568
14-21 Likelihood Ratio Chi-Square Test 573 2-1 Proximities on Immigration Issues 56
14-22 Likelihood Ratio Chi-Square Test of
Individual Parameters in the Model 574 3-1 Basic Search on ·web of Science
14-23 Probabilities and Odds 576 Data.base 88
14-24 Predicted Odds of Political 3-2 Results of Cli,cking on Article Title
Donation by Income Level 579 on Web of Science Database 89
xiv POLITICALSCIENCERESEARCHMETHODS

3-3 Results of Clicking on "Times Cited» 9-1 Example of Search for Syria in
for Article on Web of Science 2012 William Hague Speech 276
Database 90 9-2 Example Data Matrix Showing
3-4 A Well-Constructed Literature Review 98 Results of Content Analysis of
British Leader Speeches 277
4-1 Arrow Diagram of Adequacy of · 9-3 Presidential Support Data at
Medical Insurance and Voter PollingReport.com 286
Turnout Examples 109 9-4 Gallup Daily Tracking Data for President
4-2 Two Causal Models of Vote Obama from PollingReport.com 288
Choice llO
10-1 Stimulus Activates Many Beliefs,
5-1 Mokken Scale of Public Opinion Desires, Motives ... 298
about National versus State/Local 10-2 Matching Sampling Frames to
Government R~ponsibilities for Target Population 3ll
Specific Policy Areas 160
ll-1 Median Incomes for Communities
6-1 Causal and Spurious Relationships 169 AandB 360
6-2 Models of Advertising Exposure ll-2 The Quartiles and Interquartile
and Voting 170 Range 363
6-3 Logic of Randomized Controlled ll-3 Properties of a Normal Distribution 367
Experiment 174 ll-4 Shapes of Distributions 370
6-4 Simple Posttest Experiment 180 11-5 CO 2 Emissions, 1958--2010:
6-5 Example Quasi-Experiment 186 Dramatic Climate Change? 374
6-6 Some Possible Effects of an 11-6 Bar Chart of Party Identification 376
Intervention 192 11-7 Dot Chart 378
6•7 Example Intervention Analysis 193 11-8 Histogram of Women's Ages
6-8 Small-N Designs and Hypothesis (Normal Curve for Comparison) 380
Investigation 199 11-9 Boxplot of Left-of-Center Strength
6-9 l:.ogic of Survey Design 205 in Legislatures 382
6-10 Design with Control Variable 205 11-10 Top 1% Income Share in
6-11 Political Ideology Self-Identification, the United States, 1913-2013 383
1974-2010 208
12-1 Steps in Hypothesis Testing 393
7-1 Population and, Sample 214 12-2 Using the Standard Normal
7-2 The Problem of Inference 230 Distribution 395
7-3 Distribution of 1,000 Sample 12-3 Results from a Large-Sample Test
Proportions (Sample Size= 10) 233 of a Mean (Example z-Test Results
7-4 Distribution of 1,000 Sample from a Software Package) 397
Proportions (Sample Size = 50) 237 12-4 Finding the t Value 400
7-5 Distribution of 1,000 Sample 12-5 Results from a Small-Sample Test
Proportions (Sample Size = 500) 238 of a Mean (Example t-Test,Results•
7-6 The Process of Making Inferences from a Software Package) 401
from Samples 240 12-6 Factors That Affect Significance 404
 Tables,Figures,and Features xv

13-1 How Political Scientists Think 14-6 Contributed to Political

about Inequality 413 Organizations by Age 561
13-2 Types of Correlation 417 14-7 Logistic Functions 565
13-3 Strong and Weak Relationships 418 14-8 Effects of Independent Variables on
13-4 Simple Interpretation of Table Predicted Probabilities 569
Percentages: Liberalism and
Gun Control 430
Helpful Hints
13-5 Political Activity by
Partisanship 451 Types of Assertions 51
13-6 Union Liberalism by Nominating Keep Terms Straight: Theoryversus Fact 55
President's Party 452 Assumptions of Empirical Research 65
13-7 Dot Chart of Y by Categories of X: How to Come Up with a Research
Means Differ 469 Topic 80
13-8 Dot Chart of Y by Categories of X: Differentiating Scholarly from
Means Do Not Differ 471 Nonscholarly Literature 83
13-9 Engaged Citizen Scores 474 Pyramid Citations 85
13-10 Engagement Scores by Levels of Finding a Term on a Page 90
Partisanship 476 Debating the Level of
13-11 Confidence Intervals for All Measurement 148
Differences among Means 478 Creatin.g an Index of Speakers' Institutional
13-12 Construction of a Scatterplot 481 Powers 154
13-13 Inequality by Union Density 483 Causality versus Correlation 168
13-14 Data Points Do Not Fall on "Population" 213
Regression Line 485 Is a Sample Always Less Accurate? 215
13-15 Predicted and Observed Values of Y 487 Notation 216
13-16 Values of R-Squared 493 Sampling in the Real World 227
13-17 Degree and Direction of Correlation 496 How Large a Sample? 239
13-18 Curvilinear Relationship 497 Is the Sample Good Enough? 314
13-19 Literacy by GDP per Capita 504 Ask the Right Questions 342
13-20 Literacy by Log GDP per Capita 506 The Mean as a Predictor 358
13-21 Two Regressions Fitted to Literacy Inspect Graphs First 377.
Data 507 Summary of Notation 394
13-22 The Effect of an Outlier 508 Examine Variables One by One 414
13-23 Does Presidential Ideology Affect Study Graphs Carefully 418
Judicial Behavior? 510 Categories with "Too Few" Cases 423
Variation in ANOVA 470
14-1 Causal and Noncausal Relationships 518 A Reminder about Confidence Intervals
14-2 Total and Contingent Relationships 519 and Tests of Statistical Significance 479
14-3 How to Interpret Conditional A Tip and a Warning 482,,.
Relationships 526 Assumptions of Linear Models 530
14-4 "Liberalism" of Economic Rulings Interpreting Models with Dummy
by Justice's Family Background 543 Variables and Interaction 554
14-5 Interaction 551 Probability versus Odds 580
 -,.

xvi POLITICALSCIENCERESEARCHMETHODS

How It's Done The phi Coefficient 448

Calculate Small-Sample Difference-of-
Proportions and Percentages 353
Means Tests 458
The Mean 356
Large-Sample Confidence Intervals for a
The Median 360
Difference of Means 462
The Variance for a Sample 365
Small-Sample Confidence Intervals for a
The Standard Deviation for a Sample 366
Difference of Means 464
Calculating the Observed z 396
Calculating Sums of Squares 475
The Construction of Confidence Intervals 407
Calculation of Estimated Regression
Building a Cross-Tabulation 422
Coefficients 486
Computing Ordinal Measures of
Calculating Sums of Squares and R2 494
Association 431
The Correlation Coefficient 495
Calculating Lambda 442
----• Preface
A political science student may ask, "My interest is government and politics; why
do I have to study research design, question wording, document analysis, and sta-
tistics?" Our goal in PoliticalScienceResearchMethodsis to address this question by
demonstrating that with a modicum of effort applied toward studying these topjcs,
undergraduates can analyze many seemingly complicated political issues and con-
troversies in ways that go far beyond accounts in the popular press and the political
arena.

PoliticalScienceResearchMethods,now in its eighth edition, continues to hold true

to the three primary objectives that have guided us since the book's inception.
Our first objective is to illustrate important aspects of the research process and
to demonstrate that political scientists can produce worthwhile knowledge about
significant political phenomena using the methods we describe in this book. To
show this as vividly as possible, we begin again with several case studies of polit-
ical science research drawn from different areas of the discipline that addr~ss key
issues and controversies in the study of politics. We made an effort in this edi-
tion to include a wide variety of examples from the main subfields of political
science. We continue to make changes to fulfill our other two objectives: (1) to
give readers the tools necessary to conduct their own empirical research proje~ts
and·evaluate others' research, and (2) to help students with limited mathematical
backgrounds understand the statistical calculations that are part of social science
research. Though we are increasingly concentrating on what various procedur~s
can (and cannot) tell us about the real world, we've tried to include examples of
procedures and their associated calculations most likely to be used by students.
We still provide separate computational details from th~ narrative by placing many
equations in "How It's Done" boxes. The book makes an efforr to encourage stu-
dents to understand and think about the practical and theoretical implications of
statistical results. We hope that by meeting these goals, this book will continue to
satisfy the needs of our undergraduate and graduate students as they embark on
their studies in the field.

Structure and Organization of the Book

In this eighth edition we have responded to feedback that called for a tighter focus
on what instructors say matters most. We carefully streamlined each chapter to
deliver greater clarity of concepts and added new learning objectives to encourage

xyii
xviii POLITICALSCIENCERESEARCHMETHODS

close reading of main takeaways. In addition, a new, colorful interior visually

highlights the content's accessibility.

Because research methods may overwhelm some students at ~rst, we have gone
to some length (in the first chapter, especially, but also throughout the book) to
stress that research methods topics can be relevant to the understanding of current
events. This book is organized to show that research starts with ideas and then
follows a series of logical steps. Chapter 1 introduces the case studies that are
integrated into our discussion of the research process in the subsequent chapters.
We chose these cases, which form the backbone of the book, to demonstrate a
wide range of research topics within the discipline of political science: American
politics, public administration, international relations, comparative politics, and
public policy. We refer to these cases throughout the book to demonstrate the
issues, choices, decisions, and obstacles that political scientists typically confront
while doing research. We want to show what takes place behind the scenes in the
production of research, and the best way to do this is to refer to actual articles.
The advantage to. this approach; which we feel has been borne out by the book's
success over the years, is that it helps students relate substance to methods. For
this edition, we added a new example of research into the gender gap in politics,
which is especially useful as it demonstrates the use of direct observation as a data
collection method. We updated and extended the example on income inequal-
ity and redistribution in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Develop-
ment (OECD) countries and its causes to include research into the relationship
between income inequality and political representation in the United States. This
topic still links nicely to the example on voter turnout. The exai:npl~of control of
the bureaucracy remains as before. Our discussion of research into human rights
abuse continues to track the evolution of that topic. In relating research on the
effects of negative campaign advertising, we incorporate new research related to
independent spending on campaign advertising by Super PACs. Our coverage of
research on judicial politics includes research on the increasingly partisan percep-
tions of Supreme Court decisions. Finally, we changed the example concerning
public opinion about US military involvement in foreign affairs; we now refer to
recent research on the relationship bet:ween public support for war and awareness
of disparities in the distribution of the burden of casualties across communities
and groups in the United States.

Chapter 2 examines the definition of scientific research and the development of

empirical political science. We discuss the role of theory in the research process
and review some of the debates in modern and contemporary political science. In
response to adopter input, chapter 3 still focuses on the task of helping students
to identify and refine appropriate research topics. For adopters who plan to have
their students conduct independent research projects, it makes sense to intro-
duce this topio early in the discussion of the research process. This.chapter also
 Preface xix

contains an extended discussion of how to conduct and write a literature review.

Chapters 4 and 5 address the building blocks of social scientific research:
hypotheses, core concepts, variables, and measurements. Chapter 6 covers
research design with an expanded discussion of small-N studies, and includes a
handy table that summarizes and compares the features of alternative research
designs. Chapter 7, on sampling,' precedes the chapters on data collection, based
on the reasoning that sampling is not used solely by those conducting survey
research but also by those using other data collection methods. It also provides
important background information for anyone interested in public policy and
current events.

Chapters 8 through 10 discuss data collection, with an emphasis on the research

methods that political scientists frequently employ and that stud~nts are likely to
find useful in conducting or evaluating empirical research. We consider the prin-
ciples of ethical research and the role of human subject review boards and note
the ethical issues related to methods of data collection. We examine first-hand
observation in chapter 8 and document analysis and the use of aggregate data
in chapter 9; the latter now includes an extended example of research based on
content analysis. Chapter 10, on survey research, includes a discussion of ques-
tionnaire design and tips for face-to-face interviewing. In addition, chapters 9 and
10 also include updated and Web-based sources of aggregate statistics and survey
questions and data.

Chapters 11 through 14 focus on data analysis: How do we interpret data and ·

present them to others? All four chapters contain updated examples and discus-
sions. These are supplemented by a host of new figures and tables designed to
illustrate the various techniques in as friendly and intuitive a way as possible. We
also strengthened the discussion of tests of statistical signifi!=ance.Chapter 12, on
statistical inference, has been streamlined and shortened to focus on the statement
and testing of statistical hypotheses and includes examples of significance tests for
means and proportions as well as calculating confidence intervals. Our goals are
to make the logic of the tests more comprehensible and to stress the differences
among statistical, theoretical, and practical significance. In chapter 13, we investi-
gate relationships between two varia.bles.Chapter 14 includes material on logistic
regression, an increasingly important statistical tool in social research. In all of this,
we attempted to be as rigorous as possible without overwhelming readers with
theoretical fine points or computational details. The content is still accessible to
anyone with a basic understanding of high school algebra. Our goal, as always, is to
provide an intuitive understanding of these sometimes intimidating topics without
distorting the concepts or misleading our readers.

Finally, in chapter 15, we present a new research report, using a published jour-
nal article that investigates whether satisfaction with life is greater for dtizens of
xx POLITICALSCIENCERESEARCHMETHODS

countries with larger public sectors or for those who live in countries where the
market plays a larger role. This research example ties in well with the research on
income inequality used throughout the book to illustrate the research process. As
in the past, this article is annotated, although we have changed the format so that
studE;ntscan see more clearly where in the article the authors address key aspects
of the research process. We strongly suggest that instructors who assign a research
paper have their students consult the example in this chapter and use it to pattern
their own writing.

In addition to the "How It's Done" feature, the "Helpful Hints" boxes continue to
give students practical tips. Each chapter contains suggested reading lists and lists
of terms introduced. A glossary at the end of the book, with more than 250 defini-
tions, lists important terms and provides a convenient study guide.

Companion Web Site:

Student and Instructor Resources
......••••••••••••••••••••••.•.•.••.••....................••••.••.•.......•....••.
~

The edge every student needs

~SAGE edge™
forCQ Press
http://edge.sagepub.com/johnson8e

SAGE edge offers a robust online environment featuring an impressive array of

tools and resources for review, study, and further exploration, keeping both instruc-
tors and students on the cutting edge of teaching and learning. SAGE edge content
is open access and available on demand. Learning and teaching have never been
easier!

SAGE edge for Students provides a personalized approach to help students

accomplish their coursework goals in an easy-to-use learning environment.

• An online action plan includes tips and feedback on progress through

the course and materials, which allows students to individualize their
learning experience.
• Mobile-friendly eFlashcards strengthen understanding of key concepts.
• Mobile-friendly practice quizzes encourage self-guided assessment and
practice.
• Chapter summaries with learning objectives reinforce the most
important material.
 Preface xxi

• Carefully selected Web resources enhance exploration of key topics.

• Datasets and files are available for Workingwith PoliticalScienceResearch
, Methods,FourthEdition.

SAGE edge select for Instructors supports teaching by making it easy to integrate
quality content and create a rich learning environment for students.

• Test banks built on Bloom's Taxonomy provide a diverse range of test

items with Respondus test generation.
• Editable, chapter-specific PowerPoint® slides offer flexibility when
creating multimedia lectures.
• Instructor manual summarizes key concepts to ease preparation for
lectures and class discussions.
• A set of all the graphics from the text in PowerPoint, PDF,and JPEG
formats can be used for class presentations.

Solutions manual is provided for Workingwith PoliticalScienceResearchMethods,

FourthEdition.

Accompanying Workbook
...................................................................................
In addition to updating all of the Web site materials, Jason Mycoff has substan-
tially revised the accompanying workbook, Workingwith PoliticalScienceResearch
Methods,FourthEdition,providing many new exercises while retaining the ones we
feel worked well in the previous edition. Based on user feedback, he looked for
opportunities to add more problems for practicing statistical calculations, more
vari~tion in subfield coverage, and new datasets. The new edition also includes
the student version of SPSS so students can work with their own copy in courses
that use SPSS. Each workbook chapter briefly reviews key concepts covered by
the corresponding chapter in the text. Students and instructors will find datasets
and other documents and materials used in the workbook exercises at http://edge
.sagepub.com/johnson8e. The datasets, available on a variety of platforms, may also
be used for additional exercises and test items developed by instructors. Instructors
may want to add on to the datasets or have their students do so as part of a research
project. A solutions manual for adopters of the workbook is also available online at
http://edge.sagepub.com/johnson8e.

In closing, we would like to make a comment on statistical software. Instructors

remain divided over the extent to which computers should be part of an intro~uc-
tory research course and what particular programs to require. While the student
version of SPSSis included with the workbook, neither the workbook exercises nor
the textbook problems are written specifically for SPSS. We encourage instructors
xxii POLITICALSCIENCERESEARCHMETHODS

and students alike to explore the many online statistical resources such as SDA,
ICPSR, American Factfinder, Rice Virtual Statistics Lab, and Vassarstats in addition
to software like SPSS, STATA,and SAS for their analytical needs. 1

Acknowledgments
We would like to thank our careful reviewers who helped us shape this new edi-
tion: Susan Allen, University of Mississippi; Elisabeth Carter, Keele University; Mat-
thew Childers, University of Georgia; Govinda Clayton, University of Kent; Ashlie
Delshad, West Chester University; and Christopher Raymond, Queens University
Belfast. Each of these reviewers has helped make the eighth edition stronger than
ever, and we are grateful for their assistance.

We would like to thank several people who have contributed to this edition: Talia
Greenberg, our copy editor; Olivia Weber-Stenis, our production editor; and Eric
Garner, assistant managing editor of production. We are especially thankful for
the continued support and patience of acquisitions editor Sarah Calabi and senior
development editor Nancy Matuszak at CQ Press. A book with as many bells and
whistles as this one needs many sets of eyes to watch over it. We are glad to have
had.,so qiany good ones.

Janet Buttolph Johnson

H. T. Reynolds
]~son D. Mycoff

1 Virtually all of the computationsin the textbook were performedwith R, a statistical programming
environment.Although perhapstoo difficult for many undergraduates,R is assuminga greater
prominencein political science, and we encourageinstructorsand students to explorethis resource,
which is totally in the public domain. The programand.libraries, documentation,tutorials, books,and
other instructional materials can be found on the R Website: R DevelopmentCoreTeam(2011). R: A
language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundationfor Statistical Computing,Vienna,
Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL http://www.R-project.org/
---• About the Authors
Janet ButtolphJohnson is associate professor of political science and international
relations at the University of Delaware, where she specializes in public policy, state
and local politics, and environmental policy and politics.

H. T. Reynolds is professor emeritus of political science at the University of

Delaware. He is author of GoverningAmerica, with David Volger; The Analysis of
NominalData, SecondEdition;and several articles on methodology.

Jason Mycoff is associate professor of political science and international relations

at the University of Delaware. His research is on American political institutions, in
particular the US Congress, congressional committees, and parties.

xxiW
 Introduction

-
CHAPTER OBJECTIVES
1.1 Illustrate that political scientists-use empirical
research methods to investigafe important
questions about politics and government.
1.2 Discuss the ways that research on inequality
examines the importance of group power in
d~termining winners and los~rs.
1.3 Relate how research attempts to explain why
sotl'le people participate in politics more than
otliers.
,v!' Summariie findings into wh"ataccounts for the
.
gendef gap in elected off(ceholders...
1.5 Explain the approach of studies into the
repression of human rights.
1.6 tdentif¥ the obstacles of researching judicial
decision making.
·1.1 Describe the technical issues considered in
studying lobbying and oversight of federal
agencies.
1.8 Relate the results of studies on the effect of
campai~n advertjsing on voters.
1,.9.Discuss the findings of research on the factors
influencing public support for US military
involvement.

POLITICAL SCIENTISTS ARE INTERESTED in learning about and under-

standing a variety of important political phenomena.

Some of us are interested in the political differences among

countries and wonder why women make up a larger percentage
of legislators in some countries than in others, or we may wonder
what conditions lead to stable and secure political regimes without
civil unrest, rebellion, or government repression.

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2 CHAPTER1

Another area of interest is the relationships and interactions between

nations and how some nations exercise power over others.

Other political scientists are more interested in the relationship between

the populace and public officials in democratic countries and, in
particular, whether or not public opinion influences the policy decisions
of public officials.

Still others are concerned with how particular political institutions

function. Does Congress serve the interests of well-financed groups
rather than of the general populace? Do judicial decisions depend
upon the personal values of individual judges, the group dynamics of
judicial groups, or the relative power of the litigants? To what extent can
American presidents influence the actions of federal agencies? Does the
use of nonprofit service organizations to deliver public services change
government control of and accountability for those services?

These are just a very few examples of the types of questions· political scientists
investigate through their research.

This book is an introduction to empirical research-a methodology that requires

scholars to clearly state hypotheses or propositions than can be evaluated with
actual, "objective" observation of political phenomena. Students should learn
about how political scientists conduct empirical research for three major reasons.
First, citizens in contemporary American societx are often called upon to evalu-
ate arguments and research about political phenomena. Debates .about the wis-
dom of the death penalty, for example, frequently hinge on whether or not it is
an effective deterrent to crime, and debates about term limits for elected officials
involve whether or not such limits increase the competitiveness of elections and
the responsiveness of elected officials to the electorate. Similarly,evaluating current
developments in the regulation of financial markets can be informed by research
on what influences the behavior of regulatory
agencies and their staff. In these and many other
cases, thoughtful and concerned citizens find that
Get the edge on your studies at they must evaluate the accuracy and adequacy of
edge.sagepub.com/johnson8e the theories and research of political (and other
social) scientists.
Read the ctic;1ptera11dthen take advc;1ntage
of the onfirie resources to A second reason is that an ,undqstanding of
• take a.quiz to find out what you've learned; empirical research concf;pts is integrally related
• test your knowteoge with key term flashcards; to students' assimilati9n and evaluation ~f knowl-
• explore data sets to practice your skills, edge in their coursework. An important result
of understanding the scientific research pro-
cess is that a student may begin to think more
®SAGE edgeM
for CO.Press
 Introduction 3

independently about concepts and theories presented in courses and readings. For
example, a student might say, "That may be true under the given conditions, but
I believe it won't remain true under the following conditions." Or, "If this theory
is correct, I would expect to observe the following." Or, "Before I will accept that
interpretation, I'd like to have this additional information." Students who can spec-
ify what information is needed and what relationships among phenomena must be
. observed in support of an idea are more likely to develop an understanding of the
subjects they study.

A third, and related, reason for learning about political science research methods
is that students often need to conduct research of their own, whether for a term
paper in an introductory course on American government, a research project in an
upper-level seminar, a senior thesis, or a series of assignments in a course devoted
to learning empirical research methods. Familiarity with empirical research meth-
ods is generally a prerequisite to making this a profitable endeavor.

The prospect of learning empirical research methods is often intimidating to stu-

dents. Sometimes, students dislike this type of inquiry because it involves numbers
and statistics. To understand research well, one must have a basic knowledge of
statistics and how to use statistics in analyzing data and reporting research findings.
However, the empirical research process that we describe here is first and foremost
a way of thinking and a prescription for disciplined reasoning. Statistics will be
introduced only after an understanding of the thought process involved in empiri-
•.
cal research is established, and then in a way that should be understandable to any
student familiar with basic algebra.

Thus, the plan for this book is as follows:

Chapter 2 discusses what we mean by the scientific study of political

phenomena. We also review the historical development of political
science as a discipline and introduce alternative perspectives on what
is the most appropriate approach to the study of political phenomena;
not all political scientists agree that politics can be studied scientifically
or that the results of such efforts have been as useful or inclusive of
important political phenomena as critics wish.

In chapter 3, we address an aspect of the research process that often poses

a significant challenge to students: finding an interesting and appropriate
research topic and developing a clearly stated research question.
Therefore, in this edition we show how to explore "the literature" and
find out what political scientists and others have written about political
phenomena in order to sharpen the focus of a research topic, a discussion
that came later in previous editions. Chapter 3 focuses on investigating
relationships among concepts and developing explanations for political
4 CHAPTER 1

phenomena. It also includes an example and discussion of how to write

the literature review section of a research paper.

Chapter 4 builds on the discussion in chapter 3 by adding the "building

blocks~ of scientific research: defining complex concepts, hypotheses,
. variables, and units of analysis.

Chapter 5 addresses the challenge of developing valid and reliable

measures of political phenomena. It also discusses how our choices
about how we measure variables affect the statistics we may use later to
analyze the data we collect.

Chapter 6 presents research designs, both experimental and

nonexperimental. The strengths and weaknesses of research designs are
discussed, particularly as they relate to causality. The concepts of internal
validity and external validity are reviewed here as well.

Chapter 7 covers the logic and basic statistical features of sampling.

Various types of samples, including probability and nonprobability
samples, are described. Much of our information about political
phenomena is based on samples, so an understanding of the strengths
and limitations of sampling is important.

Chapter 8 is the first of three chapters discussing the major methods

used by political scientists and other social scientists to collect data.
This chapter reviews the main methods and the reasons for chqosing
one method over another. It focuses on observation as a data collection
method.

qiapter 9 focuses ori the multitude of documents available for use

by political scientists, ranging from media clips to diaries to written
speeches to the vast body of data collected by government as well as
private organizations. It includes a discussion of content analysis, a
quantitative approach to analyzing documents.

Chapter 10 discusses interviewing and survey research or polling. It

reviews various types of polls and their strengths and weaknesses, as well
as the design of survey instruments.

Chapter 11 offers an extensive discussion of descriptive statistics and

the analysis of single variables. We present a variety of graphical options
useful in displaying data, as visual representations of data are often an
extremely effective way to present information. Tips on recognizing and
avoiding misleading uses of graphical displays are an essential part of this
chapter.
 Introduction 5

Chapter 12 is devoted to the concepts of statistical inference, hypothesis

testing, and calculating estimates of population parameters. This chapter
builds on the foundation established in the earlier chapter on sampling.

Chapter 13 then moves on to the analysis of bivariate data analysis-the

investigation of the relationship between two variables.

Chapter 14 is the final statistics chapter. Here we explore statistical

techniques used in the quest for explanation and demonstrating causality.
These involve multivariate analysis, as the explanation of a political
phenomenon rarely is based on simply one other factor or variable.

As in previous editions, we conclude with an annotated example of

an actual, peer-reviewed research article. Chapter 15 contains a new
example that allows students to see the discussion and application
of many of the concepts and statistical procedures covered in earlier
chapters.

Researchers conduct empirical studies for two primary reasons. One reason is to
accumulate knowledge that will apply to a particular problem in need of a solution
or to a condition in need of improvement. Research on the causes of crime, for
example, may be useful in reducing crime rates, and research on the reasons for
poverty may aid governments in devising successful income maintenance and social
~ welfare policies. Such research is often referred to as applied research because it
has a fairly direct, immediate application to a real-world.situation.

Researchers also conduct empirical research to satisfy their intellectual curiosity

· about a subject, regardless of whether the research will lead to changes in govern-
ment policy or private behavior. Many political scientists, for example, study the
decision-making processes of voters, not because they are interested in giving prac-
tical advice to political candidates but because they want to know if elections give
the populace influence over the behavior of elected public officials. Such research
is sometimes referred to as pure, theoretical, or recreational research to indicate
that it is not concerned primarily with practical applications. 1

Political scientists ordinarily report the results of their research in books or arti-
cles published in political science research journals (see chapter 3 for <!discussion
of how to find articles in these journals). Research reported in academic journals
typically contains data and information from which to draw conclusions. It also
undergoes peer review, a process by which other scholars evaluate the soundness of
the research before it is published. Occasionally, however, political science research

Recreationalresearchis a term used by W. Phillips Shively in TheCraft of Political Research,2nd ed.

(Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1980), chap. 1.
 "
6 CHAPTER1

questions and analyses appear in newspapers and magazines, which have a wider
audience. Such popularly presented investigations may use empirical political sci-
ence methods and techniques as well.

In the remainder of this chapter, we describe several political science research projects
that were designed to produce scientific knowledge about significant political phe-
nomena. We refer to these examples throughout this book to illustrate many aspects
of the research process. We present them in some detail now so that you will find the
later discussions easier to understand. We do not expect you to master all the details
at this time; rather, you should read these examples while keeping in mind that their
purpose is to illustrate a variety of research topics and methods of investigation. They
also show how decisions about aspects of the research process affect the conclusions
that may be drawn about the phenomena under study. And they represent attempts
by political scientists to acquire knowledge by building on the research of others to
arrive at increasingly complete explanations of political behavior and processes.

Research on Inequality
.....................................•.............................................
In 1936 Harold Lasswell published Politics:Who GetsWhat, When, How.2 Ever since,
political scientists have liked this title because it succinctly states an important
truth: politics is about winning an1 losing. No political system, not even a perfectly
democratic one, can always be all things to all people. Inevitably, policies favor
some and disadvantage others. So important is this observation that one of political
science's main tasks is to discover precisely which individuals and groups benefit
the most from political struggle and why.

A major controversy in the early years of the twenty-first century has been the
apparent growth of economic inequality in the ·united States. Although there is
disagreement among social scientists about the extent of the problem, many now
believe that large disparities in income and well-being threaten not just the econ-
omy but democracy as well. At•tinies the rhetoric can become feverish:

The 99.99 percent is lagging far behind. The divide between the haves
and have-nots is getting worse really, really fast.... If we don't do
something to fix the glaring inequities in this economy, the pitchforks are
going to come for us. No society can sustain this kind of rising inequality.
In fact, there is no example in human history where wealth accumulated
like this and the pitchforks didn't eventually come out. You show me a

2 Harold Lasswell, Politics: WhoGets What, When,How (New York: Hittlesey House, 1936). A
more recent statement of the idea is found in Benjamin I. Page, WhoGets What from Government
• (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1983).
 Introduction 7

highly unequal society, and I will show you a police state. Or an uprising.
There are no counterexamples. None. It's not if, it's when. 3

Other commentators, however, are not as concerned:

If one looks at after-tax income, the increase in income inequality

over time is greatly reduced. If one goes further and factors in the
government's attempts to redistribute income, income inequality is
not increasing in the U.S. at all. This after-tax, after-transfer income
essentially is a measure of how much stuff you can consume (either
by buying it or because somebody gave you free stuff). And, as
demonstrated by Gary Burtless of The Brookings Institution (a center-left
think tank), income inequality measured this way has actually decreased
in the U.S. over the decade from 2000-2010. 4

Inequality has concerned political scientists for decades. Democracy, after all,
assumes political equality, and if people have widely varying levels of income, are
they (can they be) politically equal? Before reaching definitive conclusions, how-
ever, one needs to study systematically and objectively the level, the causes, and the
effects of disparities in income and wealth.

In a 2005 study, Lane Kenworthy and Jonas Pontusson analyzed trends in the
distribution of gross market income-the distribution of income before taxes
and government transfers-for affluent Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) countries using data from the Luxembourg Income
Study.5 Kenworthy and Pontusson were interested in whether inequality in market
income had increased and to what extent government policies had responded to
changes in market income inequality. In particular, they were interested in testing
the median-voter model developed by Allan H. Meltzer and Scott f Richard.6

According to the median-voter model, support for government redistributive spend-

ing depends on the distance between the income of the median voter and the average
market income of all voters. The greater the average.market income is in comparison
to the median income, the greater the income inequality and, thus, the greater the

3 Nick Hanauer, "The Pitchforks Are Coming ... for Us Plutocrats," Politico, June 2014. Accessed
December 28, 2014. Available at http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-
comi ng-for-us-plutocrats-108014.html#. VKMNwsk08uc
4 Jeffrey Dorfman, "Dispelling Myths about Income Inequality," Forbes,May 8, 2014. Accessed
December 27, 2014. Available at http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffreydorfman/2014/05/08/dispelling-
myths-about-income-inequality/ · ·
5 Lane Kenworthy and Jonas Pontusson, "Rising Inequality and the Politics of Redistribution in Affluent
Countries," Perspectiveson Politics 3, no. 3 (2005): 449-71. Available at http://www.u.arizona.
edu/-lkenWor/pop2005.pdf
6 Allan H. Meltzer and Scott F. Richard, "A Rational Theory of the Size of Government," Journal of
Political Economy89, no. 5 (1981): 914-27.
8 CHAPTER 1

demand from voters for government spending to reduce this gap. Countries with the
greatest market inequalities should have more such government spending.

One way to test the median-voter model is to see whether changes in redistribution
are related to changes in market inequality. One would expect that larger changes
in market inequality would cause larger changes in redistribution if governments
are responsive to the median voter. Kenworthy and Pontusson found this to be the
case, although the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom did not fit the
pattern very well. In further analyses in which they looked at country-by-country
responsiveness to market inequality over several decades, they found that most
OECD countries arf responsive to market income inequalities, although to varying
degrees, and that the United States is the least responsive.

Perhaps, Kenworthy and Pontusson suggested, government responsivene$s to mar-

ket inequality is related to voter turnout. If one assumes that lower-income voters
are less likely to turn out to vote than are higher-income voters, then one would
expect that the lower the turnout, the less likely governments would be pressured
to respond to income inequality. The median-voter model still would apply, but in
countries with low vot~r turn~ut, the median voter would be less likely to represent
lower-income households. Kenworthy and Pontusson used regression analysis and
a scatterplot (you will learn about these in chapter 12), shown in figure 1-1, to
show that the higher the voter turnout, the more responsive a country is to market
income inequality. The results provide a possible explanation for why the United
States is less responsive to changes in market inequality than are other nations:
the United States has the lowest turnout rate among the nations included in the
analysis.

These research findings are interesting in view of another body of research that we
will consider shortly: the possibility that since the mid-1950s, the bottom classes in
America have been increasingly dropping out of electoral politics.

In 2010 an entire issue of the journal Politics& Societywas devoted to the topic
of income inequality. In the lead article, "Winner-Take-All Politics: Public Policy,
Political .Organization, and the Precipitous Rise of Top Incomes in the United
States," Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson took issue with much of the previous
research on the causes of income inequality in the United States.7 First, they dis-
missed economic accounts that attri~ute growth in inequality to "apolitical pro-
cesses of economic change" for failing to explain differences among nations, as
illustrated in figure 1-2. This figure shows that the top 1 percent's share of national
income is the highest in the Unite'd States (16%) and that it increased the most,

7 Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson, "Winner-Take-All Politics: Public Policy, Political Organization,
and the Precipitous Rise of Top Incomes in the United States," Politics & Society38, no. 2 (2010):
152-204.
 Introduction 9

FIGURE 1-1 Redistribution Coefficients by Average Voter

Turnout

Redistribution
Coefficients
1.0
Nth

.7

.4

us
.1 -1-------,-----,-----~------,------,
50 60 70 80 90 100
Voter Turnout (%}

Source:Reprinted from Lane Kenworthy and Jonas Pontusson, "Rising Inequality and the Politics of
Redistribution in Affluent Countries," Perspectiveson Politics3, no. 3 (2005): 462.
Note:Asl = Australia; Can = Canada; Den = Denmark; Fin = Finland; Ger= Germany; Nth = The
Netherlands; Swe = Sweden; UK= United Kingdom; US= United States. Presidential elections for
the United States; general parliamentary elections for the other countries. Redistribution data are
for working-age households only.

almost doubling, between the 1970s and 2000. Second, they attacked previous
political analyses on three counts: for downplaying "the extreme concentration of
income gains at the top of the income ladder" (figure 1-3 shows the gain in the top
1 percent's share of national pretax income from 1960 to 2007), for missing the
important role of government policy in creating what they called a "winner-take-
all" pattern, and for focusing on the median-voter iiiodel and electoral politics
instead of important changes in the political organization of economic interests.
They argued that the median-voter model and the extreme skew in income don't
add up. Even accounting for lower turnout among lower income voters, the dif-
ference between the income of the median voter and the incomes at the very top
is too big to argue that politicians are responding to the economic interests of the
median voter.

Their explanation f?r the "precipitous rise" in top incomes in the United States
rejects the median-voter model. Instead, they argue that policies governing corpo-
rate structure and pay, the functioning of financial markets, and the framework of
10 CHAPTER 1

FIGURE 1-2 The Top 1 Percent's Share of National Income,

Mid-1970s versus Circa 2000

180/o

1.6% I• 1973-75 • circa 2000 I

140/o

120/o

100/o

80/o

60/o

40/o

20/o

Source:Andrew Leigh, "How Closely Do Top Incomes Track Other Measures of Inequality?"
EconomicJournal 117, no. 524 (2007): 619-33, http://econrsss.anu.edu.au/-aleigh/pdf/ ·
ToplncomesPanel.xls, cited in Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson, "Winner-Take-All Politics: Public
Policy, Political Organization, and the Precipitous Rise of Top Incomes in the United States,"
Politics & Society 38, no. 2 (2010): fig. 2, p. 160. Copyright© 2010 SAGE Publications. Reprinted
by Permission of SAG~ Publications.

industrial relations have had much to do with changes in pretax income (so-called
market income).

More recent research on winners and losers in politics has focused on the impact
of economic inequality on political represttntation in government, whether the
Republican and Democratic Parties differ in their response to wealthy constitu-
ents, and whether minorities fare better under Democratic rather than Republican
administrations. In his research, Thomas ]. Hayes examines Senate. responsive-
ness to economic constituencies for the 107th through the 111th Congresses.8
Hayes had to overcome a common problem encountered by political scientists
who want to study how closely the voting records of members of Congress match
public opinion in their districts-quite often national opinion polls do not contain
enough respondents from every district to gauge district public opinion accurately.

8 Thomas J. Hayes, "Responsiveness in an Era of Inequality: The Case of the U.S. Senate," Political
Research Quarterly 63, no. 3 (2012): 585-99.
 Introduction 11

FIGURE 1-3 The Richest 1 Percent's Share of National Pretax

Incoine, 1960-2007

20%

18%
Cl)
e1s%
8
,5140/o
ii
5120/o
:;
z10%
0
Cl) 8% --=r----- ...
Cl
J!!
C 60/o
~
~ 4%

2% Kennedy/
Johnson

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

:......................................................... !Ii!:!'.~
............................................. .
Sources:
Thomas Piketty and Emmanual Saez, "Income Inequality in the United States, 1913-
•. 1998," Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 1 (2003): 1-39; updated tables and figures for
Piketty and Saez available at http://elsa.berkeley.edu/-saez/TabFig2007.xls, as cited in Jacob S.
Hacker and Paul Pierson, "Winner-Take-All Politics: Public Policy, Political Organization, and the
Precipitous Rise of Top Incomes in the United States," Politics & Society 38, no. 2 (2010): fig. 1,
p. 156. Copyright© 2010 SAGE Publications. Reprinted by Permission of SAG~ Publications.

Note:Excluding capital gains.

(You will learn about sampling accuracy in chapter 7.) Luckily for Hayes, the
2004 National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES) included enough respondents
from every state. Also fortunately for Hayes, Republicans had unified control of
the national government for most of the 107th through 109th Congresses, while
Democrats controlled the Senate in the 110th and 111th Congresses with uni~
fied control for the 111 th, allowing him to compare the responsiveness of sena-
tors under periods of different party control of the Senate and its agenda. Hayes
divided NAES respondents into terciles based on income. He measured public
opinion using respondents' self-placement on an ideology scale ranging from -2
to 2 with lower values coded as liberal and calculated the average ideology score
for each of the three income groups. For senators, he used a measure designed
to summarize legislators' ideological positions based on all the votes they cast in
each Congress. Hayes then used regression analysis to see how senators' voting
 ..
12 CHAPTER 1

records matched up with the positions of each of the three income groups. Hayes
concludes that "Senators do not respond to the views of all their constituents in
an equal manner."9 Instead, he found significant responsiveness toward upper-
income constituents in each Congress. Regardless of which party controlled the
Senate, he was unable to detect responsiveness toward low-income constituents.
He also found that Republicans were more responsive than Democrats to mid-
dle-income constituents in the 109th Congress, and in the 107th Senate, respon-
siveness toward the upper-income constituents increased once Democrats took
control of the chamber, contrary to expectations that Democrats are less respon-
sive to upper-income constituents than are Republicans. As interesting as these
findings may be, they are limited in the extent to which they can be generalized
to the US Senate in other time periods or to the US House of Representatives.
Our last example of research on "who gets what" in politics uses data that cover a
considerably longer period of time.

Zoltan L. Hajinal and Jeremy D. Horowitz's research on racial winners and losers
addresses the question of whether there is a difference between the Republican
and Democratic Parties in the responsiveness to different constituencies, in this
case to minorities. 10 They note that Democratic Party leadership has argued that
liberal policies· in race, welfare, education, crime, and other social issues lead to
better outcomes for minorities, while the Republican Party argues that policies
that help the economy in general and reduce the size of government lead to higher
growth and higher incomes for all, including minorities, and provide a greater
benefit than that supplied by specific federal programs. Hajinal and Horowitz set
out to examine the evidence to see if it fits one claim over the other by looking at
the correlation between party control and minority well-being.11They decided to
measure party control by which party controls the presidency (although they also
checked to see if party control of Congress, the median ideology of the Supreme
Court, and percentage of US Court of Appeals judges nominated by a Democratic
president are important). They measured minority well-being in terms of black
median family income, unemployment, and poverty in some tests, while in others
they used criminal justice, educational attainment, and health indicators. They
also took into account differences in the condition of the national economy and
the likelihood that effects lag behind periods of party control. Their analysis con-
cluded that the black population fares better under Democratic presidents, with
black family income growing over $1,000 faster annually; poverty rates declining

9 Ibid., 595.
10 Zoltan L. Hajinal and JeremyD. Horowitz, "Racial Winnersand Losersin American Party Politics,"
Perspectiveson Politics 12, no. 1 (2014): 100-118.
11 Zoltan L. Hajinal and JeremyD. Horowitz, "Racial Winnersand Losersin American Party Politics,"
Perspectiveson Politics 12, no. 1 (2014): 100-18.
 Introduction 13

2.6 points faster, and unemployment rates falling almost one point faster than
under Republican administrations. 12 Hajinal and Horowitz also checked to see
if black gains came at the expense of whites. They found that whites also made
gains under Democratic administrations, but that the difference in gains for whites
under Democratic administrations as compared to Republican administrations was
much smaller than for blacks and were not statistically significant. But Hajinal and
Horowitz noted that more research needs to be done to determine which policies
account for minority gains.

The point of this example is not to make a statement about the value of particular
ideologies or parties. Instead, we want to stress·that important questions-what
could be more crucial than knowing who gets what from a political system?-
can be answered systematically and objectively,even if tentatively, through careful
thought and analysis. Among other things, this research demonstrates how polit-
ical scientists must take advantage of naturally occurring changes in our political

12 Their results are shown in the following table:

Party of the President and Annual Change in Black Economic Well-

Being: Regression
I
Average Annual Change Average Gain of Blacks
I
for Blacks Relative to Whites
-- -

Income Poverty Unemployed Income Poverty Unemployed

Democratic
president
~~dian income/
~
Inflation
1031
(276)***
'..011 '
(.054)
-213
-2.61
(.85)**
" .qoo ~ ~"'
(.000)
.48
-.87
(.38)*
.000,,
(.000)
.24
.
403
(193)*
.007
(.038)
-54.4
.
-2.41
(.82)**
.000
'(.000}'
.22
-.57
(.24)*
:ood
(.000)
.14
,
'
(63)*** (.18)* (.09)* (44.1) (.18) (.06)*
--•-1.59, ., ,,: ~ "
i' '
~inlaQor
s, ~

Changein oil
,:i f,<
'
753
,(5J8)'
.24
'/I; "Jl/Z5>
.002
"
-2.10

.011
<-31•;1!.ile,
(69)** _, ' ,d'63),
' -.60
(1.69)
5.80
'
-.005
'
-1.02
i.43)*
.001
l
prices (6.07) (.016) (.008) (4.26) (.015) (.005)
it,_ rTie
trend ':" ..::2110 , -.281 ·"..-1.20; !?"'
':..a65' -?.SQ. --'l,'15'\4
.,
' . , ,, (2654>'·:\, :(6.j2) (2.90)
" (1442) (6.12) (1.82)"
Democratic 974 1.80 -.44 921 .63 -.31
house (500) (1.90) (.70) (351)* (1.84) (,44)
,£-,
-,489
JDer112i.r,atii

Constant
,: '
~eo.afe "' ,{ ,.~
1:.~ -240
(388)
-2273
;,.2,6•
, (1.06)
-22.5
,1/:5!'

- ,D;oi_
dO

.34
J272t
-729
.
'- /63)
-22.7
'"-,1-3
(.31)
.13
' j'

fAdrR. squa'teti
(1523)
'1(!¥1' ,,.
~,.,11;:2""9!!;
(11.6)
' ' '.39 ' < . .35~·•t,',
(2.61)
'
(1070)
;;,,1_9
(11.3)
' .29
#;"'
(1.64)
• ·,.1g' 11' l
IN 57
'
40 ,51
--
, 57
'
40
' 51 '

***p<.001 **p<.01 *p<.05 standard error in parentheses

Ibid., 106
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
 DANCE ON STILTS AT THE GIRLS’ UNYAGO, NIUCHI

Newala, too, suffers from the distance of its water-supply—at least

the Newala of to-day does; there was once another Newala in a lovely
valley at the foot of the plateau. I visited it and found scarcely a trace
of houses, only a Christian cemetery, with the graves of several
missionaries and their converts, remaining as a monument of its
former glories. But the surroundings are wonderfully beautiful. A
thick grove of splendid mango-trees closes in the weather-worn
crosses and headstones; behind them, combining the useful and the
agreeable, is a whole plantation of lemon-trees covered with ripe
fruit; not the small African kind, but a much larger and also juicier
imported variety, which drops into the hands of the passing traveller,
without calling for any exertion on his part. Old Newala is now under
the jurisdiction of the native pastor, Daudi, at Chingulungulu, who,
as I am on very friendly terms with him, allows me, as a matter of
course, the use of this lemon-grove during my stay at Newala.
 FEET MUTILATED BY THE RAVAGES OF THE “JIGGER”
(Sarcopsylla penetrans)

The water-supply of New Newala is in the bottom of the valley,

some 1,600 feet lower down. The way is not only long and fatiguing,
but the water, when we get it, is thoroughly bad. We are suffering not
only from this, but from the fact that the arrangements at Newala are
nothing short of luxurious. We have a separate kitchen—a hut built
against the boma palisade on the right of the baraza, the interior of
which is not visible from our usual position. Our two cooks were not
long in finding this out, and they consequently do—or rather neglect
to do—what they please. In any case they do not seem to be very
particular about the boiling of our drinking-water—at least I can
attribute to no other cause certain attacks of a dysenteric nature,
from which both Knudsen and I have suffered for some time. If a
man like Omari has to be left unwatched for a moment, he is capable
of anything. Besides this complaint, we are inconvenienced by the
state of our nails, which have become as hard as glass, and crack on
the slightest provocation, and I have the additional infliction of
pimples all over me. As if all this were not enough, we have also, for
the last week been waging war against the jigger, who has found his
Eldorado in the hot sand of the Makonde plateau. Our men are seen
all day long—whenever their chronic colds and the dysentery likewise
raging among them permit—occupied in removing this scourge of
Africa from their feet and trying to prevent the disastrous
consequences of its presence. It is quite common to see natives of
this place with one or two toes missing; many have lost all their toes,
or even the whole front part of the foot, so that a well-formed leg
ends in a shapeless stump. These ravages are caused by the female of
Sarcopsylla penetrans, which bores its way under the skin and there
develops an egg-sac the size of a pea. In all books on the subject, it is
stated that one’s attention is called to the presence of this parasite by
an intolerable itching. This agrees very well with my experience, so
far as the softer parts of the sole, the spaces between and under the
toes, and the side of the foot are concerned, but if the creature
penetrates through the harder parts of the heel or ball of the foot, it
may escape even the most careful search till it has reached maturity.
Then there is no time to be lost, if the horrible ulceration, of which
we see cases by the dozen every day, is to be prevented. It is much
easier, by the way, to discover the insect on the white skin of a
European than on that of a native, on which the dark speck scarcely
shows. The four or five jiggers which, in spite of the fact that I
constantly wore high laced boots, chose my feet to settle in, were
taken out for me by the all-accomplished Knudsen, after which I
thought it advisable to wash out the cavities with corrosive
sublimate. The natives have a different sort of disinfectant—they fill
the hole with scraped roots. In a tiny Makua village on the slope of
the plateau south of Newala, we saw an old woman who had filled all
the spaces under her toe-nails with powdered roots by way of
prophylactic treatment. What will be the result, if any, who can say?
The rest of the many trifling ills which trouble our existence are
really more comic than serious. In the absence of anything else to
smoke, Knudsen and I at last opened a box of cigars procured from
the Indian store-keeper at Lindi, and tried them, with the most
distressing results. Whether they contain opium or some other
narcotic, neither of us can say, but after the tenth puff we were both
“off,” three-quarters stupefied and unspeakably wretched. Slowly we
recovered—and what happened next? Half-an-hour later we were
once more smoking these poisonous concoctions—so insatiable is the
craving for tobacco in the tropics.
Even my present attacks of fever scarcely deserve to be taken
seriously. I have had no less than three here at Newala, all of which
have run their course in an incredibly short time. In the early
afternoon, I am busy with my old natives, asking questions and
making notes. The strong midday coffee has stimulated my spirits to
an extraordinary degree, the brain is active and vigorous, and work
progresses rapidly, while a pleasant warmth pervades the whole
body. Suddenly this gives place to a violent chill, forcing me to put on
my overcoat, though it is only half-past three and the afternoon sun
is at its hottest. Now the brain no longer works with such acuteness
and logical precision; more especially does it fail me in trying to
establish the syntax of the difficult Makua language on which I have
ventured, as if I had not enough to do without it. Under the
circumstances it seems advisable to take my temperature, and I do
so, to save trouble, without leaving my seat, and while going on with
my work. On examination, I find it to be 101·48°. My tutors are
abruptly dismissed and my bed set up in the baraza; a few minutes
later I am in it and treating myself internally with hot water and
lemon-juice.
Three hours later, the thermometer marks nearly 104°, and I make
them carry me back into the tent, bed and all, as I am now perspiring
heavily, and exposure to the cold wind just beginning to blow might
mean a fatal chill. I lie still for a little while, and then find, to my
great relief, that the temperature is not rising, but rather falling. This
is about 7.30 p.m. At 8 p.m. I find, to my unbounded astonishment,
that it has fallen below 98·6°, and I feel perfectly well. I read for an
hour or two, and could very well enjoy a smoke, if I had the
wherewithal—Indian cigars being out of the question.
Having no medical training, I am at a loss to account for this state
of things. It is impossible that these transitory attacks of high fever
should be malarial; it seems more probable that they are due to a
kind of sunstroke. On consulting my note-book, I become more and
more inclined to think this is the case, for these attacks regularly
follow extreme fatigue and long exposure to strong sunshine. They at
least have the advantage of being only short interruptions to my
work, as on the following morning I am always quite fresh and fit.
My treasure of a cook is suffering from an enormous hydrocele which
makes it difficult for him to get up, and Moritz is obliged to keep in
the dark on account of his inflamed eyes. Knudsen’s cook, a raw boy
from somewhere in the bush, knows still less of cooking than Omari;
consequently Nils Knudsen himself has been promoted to the vacant
post. Finding that we had come to the end of our supplies, he began
by sending to Chingulungulu for the four sucking-pigs which we had
bought from Matola and temporarily left in his charge; and when
they came up, neatly packed in a large crate, he callously slaughtered
the biggest of them. The first joint we were thoughtless enough to
entrust for roasting to Knudsen’s mshenzi cook, and it was
consequently uneatable; but we made the rest of the animal into a
jelly which we ate with great relish after weeks of underfeeding,
consuming incredible helpings of it at both midday and evening
meals. The only drawback is a certain want of variety in the tinned
vegetables. Dr. Jäger, to whom the Geographical Commission
entrusted the provisioning of the expeditions—mine as well as his
own—because he had more time on his hands than the rest of us,
seems to have laid in a huge stock of Teltow turnips,[46] an article of
food which is all very well for occasional use, but which quickly palls
when set before one every day; and we seem to have no other tins
left. There is no help for it—we must put up with the turnips; but I
am certain that, once I am home again, I shall not touch them for ten
years to come.
Amid all these minor evils, which, after all, go to make up the
genuine flavour of Africa, there is at least one cheering touch:
Knudsen has, with the dexterity of a skilled mechanic, repaired my 9
× 12 cm. camera, at least so far that I can use it with a little care.
How, in the absence of finger-nails, he was able to accomplish such a
ticklish piece of work, having no tool but a clumsy screw-driver for
taking to pieces and putting together again the complicated
mechanism of the instantaneous shutter, is still a mystery to me; but
he did it successfully. The loss of his finger-nails shows him in a light
contrasting curiously enough with the intelligence evinced by the
above operation; though, after all, it is scarcely surprising after his
ten years’ residence in the bush. One day, at Lindi, he had occasion
to wash a dog, which must have been in need of very thorough
cleansing, for the bottle handed to our friend for the purpose had an
extremely strong smell. Having performed his task in the most
conscientious manner, he perceived with some surprise that the dog
did not appear much the better for it, and was further surprised by
finding his own nails ulcerating away in the course of the next few
days. “How was I to know that carbolic acid has to be diluted?” he
mutters indignantly, from time to time, with a troubled gaze at his
mutilated finger-tips.
 Since we came to Newala we have been making excursions in all
directions through the surrounding country, in accordance with old
habit, and also because the akida Sefu did not get together the tribal
elders from whom I wanted information so speedily as he had
promised. There is, however, no harm done, as, even if seen only
from the outside, the country and people are interesting enough.
The Makonde plateau is like a large rectangular table rounded off
at the corners. Measured from the Indian Ocean to Newala, it is
about seventy-five miles long, and between the Rovuma and the
Lukuledi it averages fifty miles in breadth, so that its superficial area
is about two-thirds of that of the kingdom of Saxony. The surface,
however, is not level, but uniformly inclined from its south-western
edge to the ocean. From the upper edge, on which Newala lies, the
eye ranges for many miles east and north-east, without encountering
any obstacle, over the Makonde bush. It is a green sea, from which
here and there thick clouds of smoke rise, to show that it, too, is
inhabited by men who carry on their tillage like so many other
primitive peoples, by cutting down and burning the bush, and
manuring with the ashes. Even in the radiant light of a tropical day
such a fire is a grand sight.
Much less effective is the impression produced just now by the
great western plain as seen from the edge of the plateau. As often as
time permits, I stroll along this edge, sometimes in one direction,
sometimes in another, in the hope of finding the air clear enough to
let me enjoy the view; but I have always been disappointed.
Wherever one looks, clouds of smoke rise from the burning bush,
and the air is full of smoke and vapour. It is a pity, for under more
favourable circumstances the panorama of the whole country up to
the distant Majeje hills must be truly magnificent. It is of little use
taking photographs now, and an outline sketch gives a very poor idea
of the scenery. In one of these excursions I went out of my way to
make a personal attempt on the Makonde bush. The present edge of
the plateau is the result of a far-reaching process of destruction
through erosion and denudation. The Makonde strata are
everywhere cut into by ravines, which, though short, are hundreds of
yards in depth. In consequence of the loose stratification of these
beds, not only are the walls of these ravines nearly vertical, but their
upper end is closed by an equally steep escarpment, so that the
western edge of the Makonde plateau is hemmed in by a series of
deep, basin-like valleys. In order to get from one side of such a ravine
to the other, I cut my way through the bush with a dozen of my men.
It was a very open part, with more grass than scrub, but even so the
short stretch of less than two hundred yards was very hard work; at
the end of it the men’s calicoes were in rags and they themselves
bleeding from hundreds of scratches, while even our strong khaki
suits had not escaped scatheless.

NATIVE PATH THROUGH THE MAKONDE BUSH, NEAR

MAHUTA

I see increasing reason to believe that the view formed some time
back as to the origin of the Makonde bush is the correct one. I have
no doubt that it is not a natural product, but the result of human
occupation. Those parts of the high country where man—as a very
slight amount of practice enables the eye to perceive at once—has not
yet penetrated with axe and hoe, are still occupied by a splendid
timber forest quite able to sustain a comparison with our mixed
forests in Germany. But wherever man has once built his hut or tilled
his field, this horrible bush springs up. Every phase of this process
may be seen in the course of a couple of hours’ walk along the main
road. From the bush to right or left, one hears the sound of the axe—
not from one spot only, but from several directions at once. A few
steps further on, we can see what is taking place. The brush has been
cut down and piled up in heaps to the height of a yard or more,
between which the trunks of the large trees stand up like the last
pillars of a magnificent ruined building. These, too, present a
melancholy spectacle: the destructive Makonde have ringed them—
cut a broad strip of bark all round to ensure their dying off—and also
piled up pyramids of brush round them. Father and son, mother and
son-in-law, are chopping away perseveringly in the background—too
busy, almost, to look round at the white stranger, who usually excites
so much interest. If you pass by the same place a week later, the piles
of brushwood have disappeared and a thick layer of ashes has taken
the place of the green forest. The large trees stretch their
smouldering trunks and branches in dumb accusation to heaven—if
they have not already fallen and been more or less reduced to ashes,
perhaps only showing as a white stripe on the dark ground.
This work of destruction is carried out by the Makonde alike on the
virgin forest and on the bush which has sprung up on sites already
cultivated and deserted. In the second case they are saved the trouble
of burning the large trees, these being entirely absent in the
secondary bush.
After burning this piece of forest ground and loosening it with the
hoe, the native sows his corn and plants his vegetables. All over the
country, he goes in for bed-culture, which requires, and, in fact,
receives, the most careful attention. Weeds are nowhere tolerated in
the south of German East Africa. The crops may fail on the plains,
where droughts are frequent, but never on the plateau with its
abundant rains and heavy dews. Its fortunate inhabitants even have
the satisfaction of seeing the proud Wayao and Wamakua working
for them as labourers, driven by hunger to serve where they were
accustomed to rule.
But the light, sandy soil is soon exhausted, and would yield no
harvest the second year if cultivated twice running. This fact has
been familiar to the native for ages; consequently he provides in
time, and, while his crop is growing, prepares the next plot with axe
and firebrand. Next year he plants this with his various crops and
lets the first piece lie fallow. For a short time it remains waste and
desolate; then nature steps in to repair the destruction wrought by
man; a thousand new growths spring out of the exhausted soil, and
even the old stumps put forth fresh shoots. Next year the new growth
is up to one’s knees, and in a few years more it is that terrible,
impenetrable bush, which maintains its position till the black
occupier of the land has made the round of all the available sites and
come back to his starting point.
The Makonde are, body and soul, so to speak, one with this bush.
According to my Yao informants, indeed, their name means nothing
else but “bush people.” Their own tradition says that they have been
settled up here for a very long time, but to my surprise they laid great
stress on an original immigration. Their old homes were in the
south-east, near Mikindani and the mouth of the Rovuma, whence
their peaceful forefathers were driven by the continual raids of the
Sakalavas from Madagascar and the warlike Shirazis[47] of the coast,
to take refuge on the almost inaccessible plateau. I have studied
African ethnology for twenty years, but the fact that changes of
population in this apparently quiet and peaceable corner of the earth
could have been occasioned by outside enterprises taking place on
the high seas, was completely new to me. It is, no doubt, however,
correct.
The charming tribal legend of the Makonde—besides informing us
of other interesting matters—explains why they have to live in the
thickest of the bush and a long way from the edge of the plateau,
instead of making their permanent homes beside the purling brooks
and springs of the low country.
“The place where the tribe originated is Mahuta, on the southern
side of the plateau towards the Rovuma, where of old time there was
nothing but thick bush. Out of this bush came a man who never
washed himself or shaved his head, and who ate and drank but little.
He went out and made a human figure from the wood of a tree
growing in the open country, which he took home to his abode in the
bush and there set it upright. In the night this image came to life and
was a woman. The man and woman went down together to the
Rovuma to wash themselves. Here the woman gave birth to a still-
born child. They left that place and passed over the high land into the
valley of the Mbemkuru, where the woman had another child, which
was also born dead. Then they returned to the high bush country of
Mahuta, where the third child was born, which lived and grew up. In
course of time, the couple had many more children, and called
themselves Wamatanda. These were the ancestral stock of the
Makonde, also called Wamakonde,[48] i.e., aborigines. Their
forefather, the man from the bush, gave his children the command to
bury their dead upright, in memory of the mother of their race who
was cut out of wood and awoke to life when standing upright. He also
warned them against settling in the valleys and near large streams,
for sickness and death dwelt there. They were to make it a rule to
have their huts at least an hour’s walk from the nearest watering-
place; then their children would thrive and escape illness.”
The explanation of the name Makonde given by my informants is
somewhat different from that contained in the above legend, which I
extract from a little book (small, but packed with information), by
Pater Adams, entitled Lindi und sein Hinterland. Otherwise, my
results agree exactly with the statements of the legend. Washing?
Hapana—there is no such thing. Why should they do so? As it is, the
supply of water scarcely suffices for cooking and drinking; other
people do not wash, so why should the Makonde distinguish himself
by such needless eccentricity? As for shaving the head, the short,
woolly crop scarcely needs it,[49] so the second ancestral precept is
likewise easy enough to follow. Beyond this, however, there is
nothing ridiculous in the ancestor’s advice. I have obtained from
various local artists a fairly large number of figures carved in wood,
ranging from fifteen to twenty-three inches in height, and
representing women belonging to the great group of the Mavia,
Makonde, and Matambwe tribes. The carving is remarkably well
done and renders the female type with great accuracy, especially the
keloid ornamentation, to be described later on. As to the object and
meaning of their works the sculptors either could or (more probably)
would tell me nothing, and I was forced to content myself with the
scanty information vouchsafed by one man, who said that the figures
were merely intended to represent the nembo—the artificial
deformations of pelele, ear-discs, and keloids. The legend recorded
by Pater Adams places these figures in a new light. They must surely
be more than mere dolls; and we may even venture to assume that
they are—though the majority of present-day Makonde are probably
unaware of the fact—representations of the tribal ancestress.
 The references in the legend to the descent from Mahuta to the
Rovuma, and to a journey across the highlands into the Mbekuru
valley, undoubtedly indicate the previous history of the tribe, the
travels of the ancestral pair typifying the migrations of their
descendants. The descent to the neighbouring Rovuma valley, with
its extraordinary fertility and great abundance of game, is intelligible
at a glance—but the crossing of the Lukuledi depression, the ascent
to the Rondo Plateau and the descent to the Mbemkuru, also lie
within the bounds of probability, for all these districts have exactly
the same character as the extreme south. Now, however, comes a
point of especial interest for our bacteriological age. The primitive
Makonde did not enjoy their lives in the marshy river-valleys.
Disease raged among them, and many died. It was only after they
had returned to their original home near Mahuta, that the health
conditions of these people improved. We are very apt to think of the
African as a stupid person whose ignorance of nature is only equalled
by his fear of it, and who looks on all mishaps as caused by evil
spirits and malignant natural powers. It is much more correct to
assume in this case that the people very early learnt to distinguish
districts infested with malaria from those where it is absent.
This knowledge is crystallized in the
ancestral warning against settling in the
valleys and near the great waters, the
dwelling-places of disease and death. At the
same time, for security against the hostile
Mavia south of the Rovuma, it was enacted
that every settlement must be not less than a
certain distance from the southern edge of the
plateau. Such in fact is their mode of life at the
present day. It is not such a bad one, and
certainly they are both safer and more
comfortable than the Makua, the recent
intruders from the south, who have made USUAL METHOD OF
good their footing on the western edge of the CLOSING HUT-DOOR
plateau, extending over a fairly wide belt of
country. Neither Makua nor Makonde show in their dwellings
anything of the size and comeliness of the Yao houses in the plain,
especially at Masasi, Chingulungulu and Zuza’s. Jumbe Chauro, a
Makonde hamlet not far from Newala, on the road to Mahuta, is the
most important settlement of the tribe I have yet seen, and has fairly
spacious huts. But how slovenly is their construction compared with
the palatial residences of the elephant-hunters living in the plain.
The roofs are still more untidy than in the general run of huts during
the dry season, the walls show here and there the scanty beginnings
or the lamentable remains of the mud plastering, and the interior is a
veritable dog-kennel; dirt, dust and disorder everywhere. A few huts
only show any attempt at division into rooms, and this consists
merely of very roughly-made bamboo partitions. In one point alone
have I noticed any indication of progress—in the method of fastening
the door. Houses all over the south are secured in a simple but
ingenious manner. The door consists of a set of stout pieces of wood
or bamboo, tied with bark-string to two cross-pieces, and moving in
two grooves round one of the door-posts, so as to open inwards. If
the owner wishes to leave home, he takes two logs as thick as a man’s
upper arm and about a yard long. One of these is placed obliquely
against the middle of the door from the inside, so as to form an angle
of from 60° to 75° with the ground. He then places the second piece
horizontally across the first, pressing it downward with all his might.
It is kept in place by two strong posts planted in the ground a few
inches inside the door. This fastening is absolutely safe, but of course
cannot be applied to both doors at once, otherwise how could the
owner leave or enter his house? I have not yet succeeded in finding
out how the back door is fastened.

MAKONDE LOCK AND KEY AT JUMBE CHAURO

 This is the general way of closing a house. The Makonde at Jumbe
Chauro, however, have a much more complicated, solid and original
one. Here, too, the door is as already described, except that there is
only one post on the inside, standing by itself about six inches from
one side of the doorway. Opposite this post is a hole in the wall just
large enough to admit a man’s arm. The door is closed inside by a
large wooden bolt passing through a hole in this post and pressing
with its free end against the door. The other end has three holes into
which fit three pegs running in vertical grooves inside the post. The
door is opened with a wooden key about a foot long, somewhat
curved and sloped off at the butt; the other end has three pegs
corresponding to the holes, in the bolt, so that, when it is thrust
through the hole in the wall and inserted into the rectangular
opening in the post, the pegs can be lifted and the bolt drawn out.[50]

MODE OF INSERTING THE KEY

With no small pride first one householder and then a second

showed me on the spot the action of this greatest invention of the
Makonde Highlands. To both with an admiring exclamation of
“Vizuri sana!” (“Very fine!”). I expressed the wish to take back these
marvels with me to Ulaya, to show the Wazungu what clever fellows
the Makonde are. Scarcely five minutes after my return to camp at
Newala, the two men came up sweating under the weight of two
heavy logs which they laid down at my feet, handing over at the same
time the keys of the fallen fortress. Arguing, logically enough, that if
the key was wanted, the lock would be wanted with it, they had taken
their axes and chopped down the posts—as it never occurred to them
to dig them out of the ground and so bring them intact. Thus I have
two badly damaged specimens, and the owners, instead of praise,
come in for a blowing-up.
The Makua huts in the environs of Newala are especially
miserable; their more than slovenly construction reminds one of the
temporary erections of the Makua at Hatia’s, though the people here
have not been concerned in a war. It must therefore be due to
congenital idleness, or else to the absence of a powerful chief. Even
the baraza at Mlipa’s, a short hour’s walk south-east of Newala,
shares in this general neglect. While public buildings in this country
are usually looked after more or less carefully, this is in evident
danger of being blown over by the first strong easterly gale. The only
attractive object in this whole district is the grave of the late chief
Mlipa. I visited it in the morning, while the sun was still trying with
partial success to break through the rolling mists, and the circular
grove of tall euphorbias, which, with a broken pot, is all that marks
the old king’s resting-place, impressed one with a touch of pathos.
Even my very materially-minded carriers seemed to feel something
of the sort, for instead of their usual ribald songs, they chanted
solemnly, as we marched on through the dense green of the Makonde
bush:—
 “We shall arrive with the great master; we stand in a row and have
no fear about getting our food and our money from the Serkali (the
Government). We are not afraid; we are going along with the great
master, the lion; we are going down to the coast and back.”
With regard to the characteristic features of the various tribes here
on the western edge of the plateau, I can arrive at no other
conclusion than the one already come to in the plain, viz., that it is
impossible for anyone but a trained anthropologist to assign any
given individual at once to his proper tribe. In fact, I think that even
an anthropological specialist, after the most careful examination,
might find it a difficult task to decide. The whole congeries of peoples
collected in the region bounded on the west by the great Central
African rift, Tanganyika and Nyasa, and on the east by the Indian
Ocean, are closely related to each other—some of their languages are
only distinguished from one another as dialects of the same speech,
and no doubt all the tribes present the same shape of skull and
structure of skeleton. Thus, surely, there can be no very striking
differences in outward appearance.
 Even did such exist, I should have no time
to concern myself with them, for day after day,
I have to see or hear, as the case may be—in
any case to grasp and record—an
extraordinary number of ethnographic
phenomena. I am almost disposed to think it
fortunate that some departments of inquiry, at
least, are barred by external circumstances.
Chief among these is the subject of iron-
working. We are apt to think of Africa as a
country where iron ore is everywhere, so to
speak, to be picked up by the roadside, and
where it would be quite surprising if the
inhabitants had not learnt to smelt the
material ready to their hand. In fact, the
knowledge of this art ranges all over the
continent, from the Kabyles in the north to the
Kafirs in the south. Here between the Rovuma
and the Lukuledi the conditions are not so
favourable. According to the statements of the
Makonde, neither ironstone nor any other
form of iron ore is known to them. They have
not therefore advanced to the art of smelting
the metal, but have hitherto bought all their
THE ANCESTRESS OF
THE MAKONDE
iron implements from neighbouring tribes.
Even in the plain the inhabitants are not much
better off. Only one man now living is said to
understand the art of smelting iron. This old fundi lives close to
Huwe, that isolated, steep-sided block of granite which rises out of
the green solitude between Masasi and Chingulungulu, and whose
jagged and splintered top meets the traveller’s eye everywhere. While
still at Masasi I wished to see this man at work, but was told that,
frightened by the rising, he had retired across the Rovuma, though
he would soon return. All subsequent inquiries as to whether the
fundi had come back met with the genuine African answer, “Bado”
(“Not yet”).
 BRAZIER

Some consolation was afforded me by a brassfounder, whom I

came across in the bush near Akundonde’s. This man is the favourite
of women, and therefore no doubt of the gods; he welds the glittering
brass rods purchased at the coast into those massive, heavy rings
which, on the wrists and ankles of the local fair ones, continually give
me fresh food for admiration. Like every decent master-craftsman he
had all his tools with him, consisting of a pair of bellows, three
crucibles and a hammer—nothing more, apparently. He was quite
willing to show his skill, and in a twinkling had fixed his bellows on
the ground. They are simply two goat-skins, taken off whole, the four
legs being closed by knots, while the upper opening, intended to
admit the air, is kept stretched by two pieces of wood. At the lower
end of the skin a smaller opening is left into which a wooden tube is
stuck. The fundi has quickly borrowed a heap of wood-embers from
the nearest hut; he then fixes the free ends of the two tubes into an
earthen pipe, and clamps them to the ground by means of a bent
piece of wood. Now he fills one of his small clay crucibles, the dross
on which shows that they have been long in use, with the yellow
material, places it in the midst of the embers, which, at present are
only faintly glimmering, and begins his work. In quick alternation
the smith’s two hands move up and down with the open ends of the
bellows; as he raises his hand he holds the slit wide open, so as to let
the air enter the skin bag unhindered. In pressing it down he closes
the bag, and the air puffs through the bamboo tube and clay pipe into
the fire, which quickly burns up. The smith, however, does not keep
on with this work, but beckons to another man, who relieves him at
the bellows, while he takes some more tools out of a large skin pouch
carried on his back. I look on in wonder as, with a smooth round
stick about the thickness of a finger, he bores a few vertical holes into
the clean sand of the soil. This should not be difficult, yet the man
seems to be taking great pains over it. Then he fastens down to the
ground, with a couple of wooden clamps, a neat little trough made by
splitting a joint of bamboo in half, so that the ends are closed by the
two knots. At last the yellow metal has attained the right consistency,
and the fundi lifts the crucible from the fire by means of two sticks
split at the end to serve as tongs. A short swift turn to the left—a
tilting of the crucible—and the molten brass, hissing and giving forth
clouds of smoke, flows first into the bamboo mould and then into the
holes in the ground.
The technique of this backwoods craftsman may not be very far
advanced, but it cannot be denied that he knows how to obtain an
adequate result by the simplest means. The ladies of highest rank in
this country—that is to say, those who can afford it, wear two kinds
of these massive brass rings, one cylindrical, the other semicircular
in section. The latter are cast in the most ingenious way in the
bamboo mould, the former in the circular hole in the sand. It is quite
a simple matter for the fundi to fit these bars to the limbs of his fair
customers; with a few light strokes of his hammer he bends the
pliable brass round arm or ankle without further inconvenience to
the wearer.
SHAPING THE POT

SMOOTHING WITH MAIZE-COB

CUTTING THE EDGE

 FINISHING THE BOTTOM

LAST SMOOTHING BEFORE

BURNING

FIRING THE BRUSH-PILE

 LIGHTING THE FARTHER SIDE OF
THE PILE

TURNING THE RED-HOT VESSEL

NYASA WOMAN MAKING POTS AT MASASI

Pottery is an art which must always and everywhere excite the
interest of the student, just because it is so intimately connected with
the development of human culture, and because its relics are one of
the principal factors in the reconstruction of our own condition in
prehistoric times. I shall always remember with pleasure the two or
three afternoons at Masasi when Salim Matola’s mother, a slightly-
built, graceful, pleasant-looking woman, explained to me with
touching patience, by means of concrete illustrations, the ceramic art
of her people. The only implements for this primitive process were a
lump of clay in her left hand, and in the right a calabash containing
the following valuables: the fragment of a maize-cob stripped of all
its grains, a smooth, oval pebble, about the size of a pigeon’s egg, a
few chips of gourd-shell, a bamboo splinter about the length of one’s
hand, a small shell, and a bunch of some herb resembling spinach.
 Nothing more. The woman scraped with the
shell a round, shallow hole in the soft, fine
sand of the soil, and, when an active young
girl had filled the calabash with water for her,
she began to knead the clay. As if by magic it
gradually assumed the shape of a rough but
already well-shaped vessel, which only wanted
a little touching up with the instruments
before mentioned. I looked out with the
MAKUA WOMAN closest attention for any indication of the use
MAKING A POT. of the potter’s wheel, in however rudimentary
SHOWS THE a form, but no—hapana (there is none). The
BEGINNINGS OF THE embryo pot stood firmly in its little
POTTER’S WHEEL
depression, and the woman walked round it in
a stooping posture, whether she was removing
small stones or similar foreign bodies with the maize-cob, smoothing
the inner or outer surface with the splinter of bamboo, or later, after
letting it dry for a day, pricking in the ornamentation with a pointed
bit of gourd-shell, or working out the bottom, or cutting the edge
with a sharp bamboo knife, or giving the last touches to the finished
vessel. This occupation of the women is infinitely toilsome, but it is
without doubt an accurate reproduction of the process in use among
our ancestors of the Neolithic and Bronze ages.
There is no doubt that the invention of pottery, an item in human
progress whose importance cannot be over-estimated, is due to
women. Rough, coarse and unfeeling, the men of the horde range
over the countryside. When the united cunning of the hunters has
succeeded in killing the game; not one of them thinks of carrying
home the spoil. A bright fire, kindled by a vigorous wielding of the
drill, is crackling beside them; the animal has been cleaned and cut
up secundum artem, and, after a slight singeing, will soon disappear
under their sharp teeth; no one all this time giving a single thought
to wife or child.
To what shifts, on the other hand, the primitive wife, and still more
the primitive mother, was put! Not even prehistoric stomachs could
endure an unvarying diet of raw food. Something or other suggested
the beneficial effect of hot water on the majority of approved but
indigestible dishes. Perhaps a neighbour had tried holding the hard
roots or tubers over the fire in a calabash filled with water—or maybe
an ostrich-egg-shell, or a hastily improvised vessel of bark. They
became much softer and more palatable than they had previously
been; but, unfortunately, the vessel could not stand the fire and got
charred on the outside. That can be remedied, thought our
ancestress, and plastered a layer of wet clay round a similar vessel.
This is an improvement; the cooking utensil remains uninjured, but
the heat of the fire has shrunk it, so that it is loose in its shell. The
next step is to detach it, so, with a firm grip and a jerk, shell and
kernel are separated, and pottery is invented. Perhaps, however, the
discovery which led to an intelligent use of the burnt-clay shell, was
made in a slightly different way. Ostrich-eggs and calabashes are not
to be found in every part of the world, but everywhere mankind has
arrived at the art of making baskets out of pliant materials, such as
bark, bast, strips of palm-leaf, supple twigs, etc. Our inventor has no
water-tight vessel provided by nature. “Never mind, let us line the
basket with clay.” This answers the purpose, but alas! the basket gets
burnt over the blazing fire, the woman watches the process of
cooking with increasing uneasiness, fearing a leak, but no leak
appears. The food, done to a turn, is eaten with peculiar relish; and
the cooking-vessel is examined, half in curiosity, half in satisfaction
at the result. The plastic clay is now hard as stone, and at the same
time looks exceedingly well, for the neat plaiting of the burnt basket
is traced all over it in a pretty pattern. Thus, simultaneously with
pottery, its ornamentation was invented.
Primitive woman has another claim to respect. It was the man,
roving abroad, who invented the art of producing fire at will, but the
woman, unable to imitate him in this, has been a Vestal from the
earliest times. Nothing gives so much trouble as the keeping alight of
the smouldering brand, and, above all, when all the men are absent
from the camp. Heavy rain-clouds gather, already the first large
drops are falling, the first gusts of the storm rage over the plain. The
little flame, a greater anxiety to the woman than her own children,
flickers unsteadily in the blast. What is to be done? A sudden thought
occurs to her, and in an instant she has constructed a primitive hut
out of strips of bark, to protect the flame against rain and wind.
This, or something very like it, was the way in which the principle
of the house was discovered; and even the most hardened misogynist
cannot fairly refuse a woman the credit of it. The protection of the
hearth-fire from the weather is the germ from which the human
dwelling was evolved. Men had little, if any share, in this forward
step, and that only at a late stage. Even at the present day, the
plastering of the housewall with clay and the manufacture of pottery
are exclusively the women’s business. These are two very significant
survivals. Our European kitchen-garden, too, is originally a woman’s
invention, and the hoe, the primitive instrument of agriculture, is,
characteristically enough, still used in this department. But the
noblest achievement which we owe to the other sex is unquestionably
the art of cookery. Roasting alone—the oldest process—is one for
which men took the hint (a very obvious one) from nature. It must
have been suggested by the scorched carcase of some animal
overtaken by the destructive forest-fires. But boiling—the process of
improving organic substances by the help of water heated to boiling-
point—is a much later discovery. It is so recent that it has not even
yet penetrated to all parts of the world. The Polynesians understand
how to steam food, that is, to cook it, neatly wrapped in leaves, in a
hole in the earth between hot stones, the air being excluded, and
(sometimes) a few drops of water sprinkled on the stones; but they
do not understand boiling.
To come back from this digression, we find that the slender Nyasa
woman has, after once more carefully examining the finished pot,
put it aside in the shade to dry. On the following day she sends me
word by her son, Salim Matola, who is always on hand, that she is
going to do the burning, and, on coming out of my house, I find her
already hard at work. She has spread on the ground a layer of very
dry sticks, about as thick as one’s thumb, has laid the pot (now of a
yellowish-grey colour) on them, and is piling brushwood round it.
My faithful Pesa mbili, the mnyampara, who has been standing by,
most obligingly, with a lighted stick, now hands it to her. Both of
them, blowing steadily, light the pile on the lee side, and, when the
flame begins to catch, on the weather side also. Soon the whole is in a
blaze, but the dry fuel is quickly consumed and the fire dies down, so
that we see the red-hot vessel rising from the ashes. The woman
turns it continually with a long stick, sometimes one way and
sometimes another, so that it may be evenly heated all over. In
twenty minutes she rolls it out of the ash-heap, takes up the bundle
of spinach, which has been lying for two days in a jar of water, and
sprinkles the red-hot clay with it. The places where the drops fall are
marked by black spots on the uniform reddish-brown surface. With a
sigh of relief, and with visible satisfaction, the woman rises to an
erect position; she is standing just in a line between me and the fire,
from which a cloud of smoke is just rising: I press the ball of my
camera, the shutter clicks—the apotheosis is achieved! Like a
priestess, representative of her inventive sex, the graceful woman
stands: at her feet the hearth-fire she has given us beside her the
invention she has devised for us, in the background the home she has
built for us.
At Newala, also, I have had the manufacture of pottery carried on
in my presence. Technically the process is better than that already
described, for here we find the beginnings of the potter’s wheel,
which does not seem to exist in the plains; at least I have seen
nothing of the sort. The artist, a frightfully stupid Makua woman, did
not make a depression in the ground to receive the pot she was about
to shape, but used instead a large potsherd. Otherwise, she went to
work in much the same way as Salim’s mother, except that she saved
herself the trouble of walking round and round her work by squatting
at her ease and letting the pot and potsherd rotate round her; this is
surely the first step towards a machine. But it does not follow that
the pot was improved by the process. It is true that it was beautifully
rounded and presented a very creditable appearance when finished,
but the numerous large and small vessels which I have seen, and, in
part, collected, in the “less advanced” districts, are no less so. We
moderns imagine that instruments of precision are necessary to
produce excellent results. Go to the prehistoric collections of our
museums and look at the pots, urns and bowls of our ancestors in the
dim ages of the past, and you will at once perceive your error.
MAKING LONGITUDINAL CUT IN
BARK

DRAWING THE BARK OFF THE LOG

REMOVING THE OUTER BARK

 BEATING THE BARK

WORKING THE BARK-CLOTH AFTER BEATING, TO MAKE IT

SOFT

MANUFACTURE OF BARK-CLOTH AT NEWALA

To-day, nearly the whole population of German East Africa is
clothed in imported calico. This was not always the case; even now in
some parts of the north dressed skins are still the prevailing wear,
and in the north-western districts—east and north of Lake
Tanganyika—lies a zone where bark-cloth has not yet been
superseded. Probably not many generations have passed since such
bark fabrics and kilts of skins were the only clothing even in the
south. Even to-day, large quantities of this bright-red or drab
material are still to be found; but if we wish to see it, we must look in
the granaries and on the drying stages inside the native huts, where
it serves less ambitious uses as wrappings for those seeds and fruits
which require to be packed with special care. The salt produced at
Masasi, too, is packed for transport to a distance in large sheets of
bark-cloth. Wherever I found it in any degree possible, I studied the
process of making this cloth. The native requisitioned for the
purpose arrived, carrying a log between two and three yards long and
as thick as his thigh, and nothing else except a curiously-shaped
mallet and the usual long, sharp and pointed knife which all men and
boys wear in a belt at their backs without a sheath—horribile dictu!
[51]
Silently he squats down before me, and with two rapid cuts has
drawn a couple of circles round the log some two yards apart, and
slits the bark lengthwise between them with the point of his knife.
With evident care, he then scrapes off the outer rind all round the
log, so that in a quarter of an hour the inner red layer of the bark
shows up brightly-coloured between the two untouched ends. With
some trouble and much caution, he now loosens the bark at one end,
and opens the cylinder. He then stands up, takes hold of the free
edge with both hands, and turning it inside out, slowly but steadily
pulls it off in one piece. Now comes the troublesome work of
scraping all superfluous particles of outer bark from the outside of
the long, narrow piece of material, while the inner side is carefully
scrutinised for defective spots. At last it is ready for beating. Having
signalled to a friend, who immediately places a bowl of water beside
him, the artificer damps his sheet of bark all over, seizes his mallet,
lays one end of the stuff on the smoothest spot of the log, and
hammers away slowly but continuously. “Very simple!” I think to
myself. “Why, I could do that, too!”—but I am forced to change my
opinions a little later on; for the beating is quite an art, if the fabric is
not to be beaten to pieces. To prevent the breaking of the fibres, the
stuff is several times folded across, so as to interpose several
thicknesses between the mallet and the block. At last the required
state is reached, and the fundi seizes the sheet, still folded, by both
ends, and wrings it out, or calls an assistant to take one end while he
holds the other. The cloth produced in this way is not nearly so fine
and uniform in texture as the famous Uganda bark-cloth, but it is
quite soft, and, above all, cheap.
Now, too, I examine the mallet. My craftsman has been using the
simpler but better form of this implement, a conical block of some
hard wood, its base—the striking surface—being scored across and
across with more or less deeply-cut grooves, and the handle stuck
into a hole in the middle. The other and earlier form of mallet is
shaped in the same way, but the head is fastened by an ingenious
network of bark strips into the split bamboo serving as a handle. The
observation so often made, that ancient customs persist longest in
connection with religious ceremonies and in the life of children, here
finds confirmation. As we shall soon see, bark-cloth is still worn
during the unyago,[52] having been prepared with special solemn
ceremonies; and many a mother, if she has no other garment handy,
will still put her little one into a kilt of bark-cloth, which, after all,
looks better, besides being more in keeping with its African
surroundings, than the ridiculous bit of print from Ulaya.
MAKUA WOMEN