Climate Change-Induced Disaster and Its Impact on National Security of Nepal

Abstract

In 21 century, Climate change is the biggest contemporary challenge we are facing, as it does not
come under the traditional threats. However, it is a potential threat multiplier to the non-
conventional security domain. Despite being the most profound of the environmental change
problems confronting the world at large with a disproportionate impact on Asia, a few studies argue
the ramifications of climate change for national security. As a Himalayan country, Nepal, being
unique topographically with an altitude ranging from 60 m to 8848, is prone to various kinds of
disasters, including climate change induced among many. Existing scholarship on national security,
few have explored the potential threats due to the impacts of climate change, however, the domestic
literature lacks clarity on Nepal’s vulnerability towards this.

In this context, geographically located in the lap of the Himalayas, Nepal has been lagging far
behind in grasping the issue of climate change through the lens of National Security. This study
maps the possible connection between climate change and national security by examining the major
adverse environmental trends and disasters that posed a security threat to Nepal. It also aims to
explore the potential mitigating or adaptation measures of the effects of climate change on national
security which eventually helps security professionals, scholars and decision-makers. This article
uses a content analysis approach to make the conclusion through the collected information where
thematic analytical interpretation is used.

Keywords: Climate Change, National Security, Disaster, Threat, Security Stressors, Human
Security, Securitization.

Introduction
Climate change is the biggest contemporary challenge facing humanity in the 21st century. It does
not fit into the domain of traditional threats to national security but is a threat multiplier to Human
Security. Climate change is likely to influence large scale human migration, economic and social
depression over scarce natural resources and political systems which cause a higher degree of
uncertainty. In general, security is the condition of being protected from danger, or freedom from
care, anxiety or apprehension (Barnett, 2003). Crucial for action is addressing climate change
threats to Himalayan countries, small island states and states that are least developed, as
environmental destabilization may lead to a major economic, environmental and political crisis that
may not just affect these states but the world as a whole. The literature indicates that climate change
undermines national security dimensions by increasing environmental degradation, resource
scarcity, large scale human migration and damage to infrastructure.

The security implication of climate change is a topic of important academic research in which
international scholars begin to experience the force of climate change impacts. Several studies have
been conducted in many parts of the world based on security issues related to climate change.
Nonetheless, few studies argue that it poses a long-term threat, with significant implications for
quality of life and greatest challenge for certain individuals, communities, nation-states and even
the globe (Scheffran and Battaglini, 2011). Nepal being a least developed country geographically
located in the lap of the Himalayas has been lagging far behind in grasping the issue through the
lens of National Security. Warming in Nepal is projected to be higher than the global (WB & ADB,
2021). To reduce climate-induced threats that contribute to national security, there is a need to
develop an integrated approach at local and national levels to formulate and implement sustainable
adaptive strategies.
There is a vast array of literature regarding the issues related to National Security, the impact of
Climate change and Climate change adaptation but very few Books, Research work and articles
have enlightened the relationship between Climate Change and National Security. The majority of
the available literature related to the topic has agreed that climate change cannot be viewed through
the lens of natural phenomena but needs serious study and research. Most of the developed
countries and even the United Nations have recognized/accepted climate change as a ‘Threat
Multiplier’. Nepal, being a mountainous country geographically located in the lap of the Himalayas
is one of the most vulnerable countries in terms of climate change (IPCC report 2022). Due to the
difficult geographical terrain disaster response operations are becoming much complex and costly
in terms resource mobilization in case of mega disasters occur. Being a least developed country
with limited resources, Nepal needs to pay special attention and be prepared with an appropriate
security model to cope with the threat posed by climate change in the future. Undergraduates,
graduates and doctoral students should be encouraged to research and participate in such projects
and capstone initiatives which could assist planners/decision-makers.

This paper maps the possible connections between climate change and national security with special
emphasis on disaster caused by climate change particular reference to Nepal. It further examines the
major environmental trends and key climate change-induced disasters that posed a security threat to
the country. It concludes with a range of recommendations on how least developed countries like
Nepal could mitigate the security threats posed by climate change.

Research Methodology
This paper follows ……………….This is the qualitative research developed based on discourse
analysis and exploratory research design. The research design helps in the exploration of current
scenarios regarding climate change induced disasters and their security implications. Research also
elucidates how non-traditional threat like climate change is emerging as a security challenge in
modern security studies through systemic study. The sources of data for this study are based on
secondary data. The secondary data sources are related books, previous research, reports on the
media, daily reports and reviews on various local and international newspapers, magazines,
journals, news channels, and documentaries as well as different websites on the internet. Literatures
were identified for review through a comprehensive search by using electronic and non-electronic
databases. Related published literature and documents have been searched in a systematic way
using a range of keywords relating to climate change and its impacts on national security.

The study spotlights the climate change associations with national security in general, major
indications of climate change including major disasters and possible adoption measures to the
challenges posed by Climate Change in National Security of Nepal. References cited in the
literature were searched and imported studies were collected in full text. The data obtained from
various sources have been analyzed by using content analysis where thematic analytical (following
its six-step) interpretations have been used. Theoretically, this study follows an idea of critical
constructivism incorporating a theoretical perspective into the field research to enhance the broader
rameworkframework of climate change and National Security. This study contains scientific and
empirical data collected from both primary and secondary sources, hence the research is qualitative
in nature.

Conceptual Framework
The researcher has attempted to apply a few concepts applicable to the proposed study. Different
scholars have presented Climate Change in different ways based on their own interests. For
instance, businessmen and entrepreneurs engaged in the industry related to fossil fuel and
automobiles deny the fact in which 97% of climate scientists believe. This study basically focuses
on anthropogenic climatic change and its consequences keeping the skeptic and climate change
denier’s views in the backdrop. Irrespective of international border, class of people and status of the
 country, climate change affects everywhere. However, lowland and mountainous countries are
much affected ones. Researcher for the proposed study examine the various types of disasters
caused by climate change to analyze their consequences which ultimately impact the overall
National Security of Nepal. The major focus area of the study is based on the conceptual framework
of analyzing the interrelationship between climate change-induced disaster and its implications on
the overall National security discourse of Nepal.

CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED

DISASTERS ISSUE

R
A E
P S
N
E R
F I V
E L A I EVENTS
A A
L D S
A D D
R N L E S
S R I E
T D G E T
H O C G
H S L V I O
U R
Q L
F G
O E E N
A
R
U I F M L M

CONSEQUENCES
L H D
A D E T S
O T A
K E R E
O L I M
T
E S
D T I
S P
I O
E
N
N
G

Migration/ Scarcity of Resources Loss of Lives and Property

Economic Instability
Civil Unrest Insecurity Climate Refugee Weakened Enforcement of Law and Order

IMPACT
IMPACT ON NATIONAL SECURITY OF
NEPAL

Figure 1: Conceptual Framework

Different Perspectives on Climate Change

In the academic discourse, there is still a debate on whether Climate change is real or just a Natural
phenomenon. It is not easy to distinguish the disasters whether it is induced by climate change or
Natural one. But visualizing the frequency of disaster occurrence and its nature many literatures
have concluded that climate change is real and a significant subject to various
academics/professionals. There exists a strong crowd that wears a different perspective on climate
change. The thought of climate change can broadly be categorized into three different perspectives
describe as below;

Anthropogenic Climate Changes: Change is inevitable. Everything changes and so does the
climate. Pondering through the path of evolution, our mother Earth has undergone a considerable
amount of change in her topography, atmosphere and inhabitants as well. Due to human activities
(Burning fossil fuel, deforestation, burning woods ets) increases the emission of Green house gases
in the atmosphere cause rise in temperature of the overall earth surface. Climate change is real and
will have wide-ranging consequences in many areas, including security (Rawal, 2021).

Skeptic thought of climate Change: Many conspiracy theorists consider the issue as a 'politicized
strategy' to project a vilified image of natural phenomena to impose control over the population by
inculcating a sense of fear in the masses. John Coleman, the co-founder of the Weather Channel,
strongly criticises the prioritization of Global Warming and considers the issue as the 'baloney'
(Coleman, 2014). This counterintuitive skepticism lets us see through the wall of quasi-narration of
certain interest groups, who are churning the wheels for financial gains, in the capitalist-led
economy.

Climate Change Deniers: Making it a global issue, a large amount of resources are being spent to
address the impending and existing challenges and threats. The 'climate change deniers' opine that
every year large sum of tax-payers' money is spent on Climate research, predominantly only by
those individuals who support and further the hypothesis of climate change and its impacts
(Coleman, 2014). COP 28 was conducted in Dubai, ensuring more commitment from the developed
nations in the form of 'Climate Finance', which seems to cross the threshold of 100 billion USD as
envisaged during COP 21 in 2015 (COP28, 2023). As the most saleable commodity has been the
cultivation of consternation, the issue has been in full swing in recent decades. However, the claims
and arguments enunciated by the 'deniers' are less justifiable and pose major contradictions if we
look over the facts and figures.

The majority of climate scientists assert that climate change is real and is induced by human beings.
This axiom has been scientifically proven by the scientists of 195 countries in an assessment of the
reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations' body for
assessing the science related to climate change. These peer-reviewed studies and research suggest a
discernible human influence on the global climate. These anthropogenic changes directly or
indirectly affect every sector of human life, environment and security.

Why climate change a significant subject to Nepal?

Nepal is highly vulnerable to climate change and has already experienced changes in temperature
and precipitation at a faster rate than the global average. Due to its geography, Nepal is exposed to a
range of climate risks and water-related hazards triggered by rapid snow- and ice-melt in the
mountains and torrential rainfall episodes in the foothills during the monsoon season. Millions of
Nepalese Nepali are estimated to be at risk from the impacts of climate change including
reductions in agricultural production, food insecurity, strained water resources, loss of forests and
biodiversity, as well as physical damage to lives and property (NPC,2022, p.9). Hence, Nepal is
ranked as one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change.

Due to its high altitudes, diverse terrain and weather variability, Nepal’s environment is
exceedingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The country faces flooding, landslides,
monsoons, food shortages and a rapidly changing ecosystem. Climate change will have untold
consequences on Nepal’s population, especially among rural and marginalized groups, and could
cause economic, social and health problems. Due to a combination of political, geographic, and
social factors, Nepal is recognized as vulnerable to climate change impacts, ranked 128th out of 181
countries (WB & ADB, 2021, p.8).

Literatures have shown that climate change affects comparatively more to lowlands and high
Himalayan countries. Nepal has an agrarian economy. Soil erosion, landslides and unpredicted and
extreme weather patterns have a direct impact on crop production. It even affect quality of crops
lowering nutrition due to its chain effect during photosynthesis process (.......cite). On the other
hand, a large portion of the population is dependent on natural resources for livelihood. Rapid
melting of mountains & glaciers, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), increased frequency of
landslides & flash floods, resource scarcity and limited resources and infrastructure to address
climate-induced disasters are the major variables that made climate change an important subject in
the Nepali context.

How Climate Change Impacts Each Type of Natural Disaster

Climate change has specific and pronounced impacts on various natural disasters. Many literatures
and most of the climate scientists have proved that climate change has a linkage with disastrous
activity. Major disasters and their linkage with climate change are as described as below;

Floods: Floods are the most frequent natural disaster and have impacted every country. The
connection between floods and climate change come down to a few ways that climate change is
impacting water. Higher temperatures lead to increased levels of evaporation, creating denser
clouds that hold more water. This eventually leads to heavier precipitation that can cause flooding.
More frequent and intense storms such as hurricanes can lead to floods (Crimmins, 2022).

Earthquakes: The connection between earthquakes and climate change is slightly less
straightforward and certainly less influential. Most earthquakes occur when tectonic plates within
the Earth’s crust change or move. Many things can lead to this, but where climate change comes
into play is once again related to water. Earthquakes can be triggered or prevented by variability in
stress on a fault between tectonic plates. Stress on these faults is impacted by surface water from
rain or snow. When there is heavier rainfall, this precipitation and any subsequent flooding increase
stress and decrease seismicity. When the season dries up and there’s less water, the weight on the
Earth’s crust decreases and this can lead to microseismicity (Buis, 2019). As of now, the majority
of the connection between earthquakes and climate change is with microseismicity. Climate change
could cause more earthquakes and volcanic eruptions by increasing the weight of water on the
Earth's crust (Blackett, 2023).

Extreme Temperatures: Climate change can lead to both extreme high temperatures and extreme
low temperatures. The unique biodiversity of the globe as a whole is at risk due to climate change.
Shifts in temperature and precipitation can disrupt ecosystems, affecting flora and fauna. This has
implications for biodiversity conservation and the livelihoods of communities dependent on these
ecosystems. The connection with extremely high temperatures is more intuitive greenhouse gases
are being trapped in the atmosphere and this leads to warming (Crimmins, 2022). Global warming
has created water scarcity in the Himalayan river basin due to glacier melt, resulting mass migration
in search of alternatives. ‘Climate refugee’ becoming one of the buzz word in the field of security
studies is also caused by extreme temperature and global warming.

Landslides: Steep terrains in the Himalayas and hilly regions are susceptible to landslides, which
can be triggered by heavy rainfall or glacial melt. Climate change contributes to increase
precipitation variability, elevating the risk of landslides and posing threats to infrastructure and
communities. Landslides are connected to rainfall as well. Due to climate change’s impact on
evaporation and precipitation, more frequent and intense rainfall events can lead to more landslides.

Droughts: Another side of the water spectrum is droughts, though they result from the same
process (Crimmins, 2022). Droughts are a natural part of the climate cycle, but climate change is
making them more frequent, severe, and prolonged. While higher levels of evaporation lead to
eventual severe rainfall, in some regions, this shift means drier conditions due to the loss of the
evaporated water, which can lead to drought and dried-out soils and vegetation.

Volcanic Activities: There is some evidence to suggest that climate change could increase
eruptions in a similar way that they impact seismic activity, through lessening the pressure on the
Earth’s surface. In this case, this decreased pressure causes more hot magma to come in contact
with aquifers, which triggers eruptions (Crimmins, 2022). But Similar to earthquakes, volcanic
activity has a less direct relationship with climate change. Climate change can also cause more
volcanic eruptions by increasing the amount of magma in the Earth's mantle (Blackett, 2023).

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF): A glacial lake outburst flood occurs when the dam
containing a glacial lake fails the sudden and intense flooding that results in catastrophic for nearby
communities. When glaciers melt, the water can seep into cracks in the Earth's crust, causing them
to widen and weaken (Blackett, 2023). These floods have already caused hundreds of fatalities
across the world, destroying downstream communities and stunting the socio-ecological integrity in
their wake. Climate change will increase the frequency and severity of GLOFs.

Climate Change and National Security

Rapidly changing climatic conditions exacerbate the challenges to the security of the nation. The
National Security, unlike the traditional concept (Limited to protection from conventional military
threats only) possesses multiple dimensions, comprising economic, food, physical, environmental,
border, energy and cyber security, which are mutually interrelated and interwoven (UNEP, 2022).
Climate change is also becoming a multi-perspective phenomenon. In a similar way, the dimension
of national security is increasing in the world day by day. The modality of security differs from
country to country. Therefore, it needs a better understanding of country specific scenarios. The
scenario of Nepal is also a specific subject matter in this regard because of its own inherent
multidimensional features related to its geography, geopolitics and national economy (Paudel,
2021).

Climate change implicates the economy of the nation, which in turn affects all other elements. The
adverse effects of change induce varied disasters, which directly impede the productivity of the
nation. For instance, a flood could sweep all the crops that have been cultivated in the region,
causing economic strain for the farmers. The food sector, from production to supply, management
and consumption, will directly suffer from this issue. A slight impact can also have a critical effect,
as observed in 2018 impact of El Nino in various parts of the world, compelling India to restrict the
export of non-basmati rice and affecting the supply chain of the world (Schewe, 2018).

National security is primarily associated with managing conventional threats with military
capabilities but in the modern concept, it is more engaging in handling non-traditional issues like
pandemics, climate change and more inter-state issues by applying all the available resources in an
integrated approach. Climate change can affect the security dimension in multiple ways. If any
disaster occurs, it directly impedes its functioning and effectiveness, multiplying the threats to the
maximum as the defensive mechanism is paralysed. The increase in severe climate change-related
disasters has also warranted larger engagement of security forces in Humanitarian Assistance and
Disaster Response Operations. The 2014 Jure landslide, 2017 Terai flood, 2019 Bara Parsa
rainstorm, and 2021 Melamche and Manang floods are instances that have already demonstrated
how the forces are compelled to enhance their engagement and capabilities in humanitarian and
disaster response operations whereas their primary responsibility is to defend the nation (Malla,
2023).

Similarly, climate-induced disasters cause greater loss of lives and property and reduce the
availability of resources, creating competition among the population, thereby resulting in mass
displacement and creating the 'Climate Refugee' crisis. This hunt for resources causes further
conflict, as witnessed in history (Conger, 2020). For example, water scarcity in Latin America led
to mass emigration towards Central America. Likewise, the next commodity for which war will be
waged shortly will be 'drinking water,' as its access has been alarmingly limited. Navigating over
the Pacific region, many island nations are facing existential threats due to sea level rise.
While seeing over the issue with militarily glance, the impact of climate change impedes the usage
of technology and equipment which are crucial for the defense and also increases the frequency,
scale, and complexity of operations, making them more expensive. Hence, the effects of climate
change sea-level rise; water, food and energy scarcities, mass migration, upsurge in local and global
conflicts and pandemics pose a significant threat to national security (Rawal, 2021).

Climate change Induced disasters in Nepal

Flood: Nepal is frequently affected by water induced disasters. Floods are particularly associated
with summer monsoon rains, and are a feature of current climate variability. The country's more
than 6,000 rivers and rivulets, with a total of 45,000 km in length, support irrigated agriculture and
other livelihoods, but also wreak havoc in valleys and in the tarai when they overflow (Sapkota &
Rijal, 2016). During the 2008 Koshi flood, the barracks of the Nepali Army of Koshi Toppu
Wildlife Conservation were submerged, necessitating the relocation of troops, equipment, and
weapon systems to safer locations. Similar incidents occurred during the 2019 Rautahat and 2021
Nawalparasi events. Additionally, in 2021, the flood at Melamche alone caused a loss of 2 billion
NPR to the Melamche Water project. In the same year, 12 under-construction hydro projects were
damaged, with Madi Khola Hydro, a 44-megawatt project near completion, suffering the most
significant loss. Similarly, the Sanima and Sunkoshi hydro projects were damaged during the Jure
landslide dam burst flood in 2014, and the Upper Dordi Khola Hydropower project was damaged in
the 2019 flood. Around four dozen concrete bridges were damaged in the country during the 2021
monsoon (NDRRMA, 2021). Monsoon-led flooding in may 2023 has destroyed three suspension
bridges, five concrete bridges, and two hydro projects in Eastern Nepal (Malla, 2023).
Landslides: Landslide is another climate induced disaster often related to extreme rainfall and
flood events. It has a significant impact on communities and infrastructure. Nepal is a country of
uneven terrain and people of hills and mountainous region are considering being vulnerable to
landslides. Occurrence of landslides can be triggered by high precipitation hence climate change
can have a significant role in increasing the frequency of the precipitation which led to landslide.
During the 2021 monsoon, a military sentry post in Chunnumbri, Gorkha District, was swept away
by a flood in the Budigandagi River and the Helambu-based police office, and Armed Police Force
camp of the Melamchi Drinking Water Project was also destroyed by the flash flood the same year.
In 2015, a security base of the Nepali Army at Lamabagar, Dolakha, was buried by a landslide,
causing damage to equipment and the weapon systems (Malla, 2023).
GLOF: Nepal, due to its geographical location located in the range of Hindu Kush Himalays (also
called “Third Pole”) is vulnerable due to large number of glacial and snow concentration. Rapid
melting of Himalayas has resulted in the formation of new glacial lakes and the enlargement of
existing lakes due to the accumulation of meltwater behind loosely consolidated end moraine dams.
Such lakes are inherently unstable and can be subject to catastrophic drainage, which is consider as
potential source of danger to people and property in the valleys below them.
Drought: Due to climate change some part of the country might get excessive amount of rain while
other part might suffer from drought. Increasing temperature might trigger drought event. The
impact of the 2008-2009 winter droughts on farming and on local food security was severe
(Sapkota & Rijal, 2016). In that period, most monitoring stations received less than 50% of normal
rainfall, 30% recorded no precipitation at all and temperatures were 1-2°C above average (Sapkota
& Rijal, 2016).

Besides aforementioned events, there are many other climate induced disasters whose frequency
might be enhanced if the climate continues to change abruptly in projected pace. Nepal is one of the
most vulnerable countries to climate change, especially water-induced disasters and hydro-
meteorological extreme events resulting droughts, storms, floods and landslides.

National security implications by Climate change-induced disasters

Nepal is vulnerable to the various types of disasters due to climate change. Diverse terrain of Nepal
has its own unique characters. Tarai land is vulnerable to flood, hilly region vulnerable to landslides
and Himalaya region is vulnerable to glacial lake outburst flood and other ice melting events.
Figure below illustrates the major climate change induced disasters occurred in Nepal.
Figure 2: Severe Weather, Landslides and floods in Nepal
(Source: Emergency Response coordination Centre (ERCC)-2022)

Major security implications due to climate induced disasters are discussed below:
Threat to National Defense System: Security forces are the key respondent in case of mega
disasters occur. Location of security camps themselves are not secured in terms of landslides, flood
and other disasters. Flood at Koshi Army Barrck in 2008, Rautahat barrack in 2019 and
Nawalparasi in 2021 are few examples. Military bases and installations have frequently been
threatened by the consequences of climate-induced disasters such as floods, inundation, and
landslides. As the global consequences of climate change continue to unfold, Nepal finds itself
among the most vulnerable countries, bearing the brunt of these challenges (Malla, 2023).
Migration/Climate Refugees: Due to uncertainty of safety and security induced by adverse
weather events and disasters, people are shifting especially from Himalaya to hilly and hilly to
Tarai region to their comfort. Migration affects the balance on the existing society in terms of
resource, social culture and values. It can equally fracture the fabrics of harmonious co-existence
among hitherto peaceful groups that are divided along different cultural, ethnic, religious, and
political linings. The net effect could prove very unsettling for the stability and security of a state
(Onuoha & Ezirim, 2010). On the other hand, what security situation happens to the small states
like Nepal in case of huge number of refugees started to come from neighboring countries due to
extreme weather events? Can Nepal sustain them? These are the serious questions as far as National
security is concerned.

Impact on Economy: Operations to address the mega disaster and catastrophes are obviously
costly itself. The loss of snow in the mountains, destruction of biodiversity, loss of heritage sites
due to disasters and unpredictable weather conditions affect economy of the country. There is a
growing concern on the effects of climate change on livestock production. Literature shows that
climate change adversely affects livestock and poultry. Additionally, Erosion of soil, severe
landslides and flood affect the agricultural product which ultimately affect economy of the country.
An indicative analysis of the impacts of climate change on water-induced disasters at the national
level estimates that the additional average expected annual direct cost could be equivalent to 1.1%/
year of current GDP by mid-century (over and above existing damages), with an upper estimate of
almost 3%/year production (Sapkota & Rijal, 2016).

Environmental Degradation: Air pollution is among the foremost reasons of environmental

degradation caused by climate change that is already apparent in the country. In 2022, the Air
Quality Index (AQI) ranked Nepal among the top 16 most polluted countries in the world. Air
pollution-related Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is now responsible for around
16.3 percent of total deaths in the country, a significant increase from 6.1 percent in 1990.
Moreover, recent years have seen an increase in health problems such as allergies, cancers, and
neurological effects (Malla, 2023).

Effect on Development: The destruction of infrastructure and development work due to disasters
will ultimately push the country decades behind in terms of prosperity. Now, imagine if Nepal,
which is always craving for development, continues to bear such periodic devastation due to climate
change-related disasters what will be the situation in next two to three decades. Indeed, it is a very
sensitive issue that requires national and international attention (Malla, 2023).

Likelihood of Conflict: Scarcity of resources, loss of lives and property can create a social conflict.
Besides this, internal migration from rural to urban areas for the ease of living and ensure safety and
security life is also on the rife. The looming threat of social conflict arises from the potential social
inequality and resource disputes, particularly over water. Ultimately, the deterioration of social and
cultural values may culminate in social conflicts, which in turn undermine national security (Malla,
2023). On the other hand, if a government is perceived to be incapable of addressing these climate-
exacerbated stressors, it can produce heightened senses of marginalization and deprivation amongst
the affected population and a stronger sense of resentment towards the government. The net effect
could prove very unsettling for the stability and security of a state (Onuoha & Ezirim, 2010).

Effects on International Relation: National situation will inevitably affect international relation.
Experts claim that the impending water crisis resulting from climate change will deteriorate
international relations. The construction of one-sided flood protection structures by our southern
neighbor in the form of road networks along the border area may lead to unforeseen situations in
terms of foreign relations (Malla, 2023). Furthermore, new trend of cloud seeding projects lunched
by both neighbors and its effects on natural weather system would be another issue of international
relation. Being small state like Nepal, to sustain Climate refugees due to climate related events
would become another threat to national security if in case such situation occur .

Recommendations

The culmination of this research underscores the critical imperative for urgent and comprehensive
climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies tailored to the unique context of Nepal. The
following key points are highlighted to guide future action:

Awareness Programs: Different scholars have presented Climate Change in different ways based
on their interest. Common consensus and understanding are highly required to come up with an
actionable plan. For this, awareness program at all levels is highly necessary. Government should
encourage the concerned authorities to incorporate lessons at school and college in order to make
aware budding brains regarding climate change, environmental conservation and
mitigating/adaptation into their curricula.

Recognition of Vulnerabilities: It is paramount to acknowledge Nepal’s distinct vulnerability to

climate change, accentuated by its Himalayan landscape. Specific challenges such as glacial lake
outbursts, altered water resources, and heightened landslide risks demand immediate attention and
tailored solutions. Based on the degree of risk government or the concerned authority should level
the areas (High Risk, Risky and mild zone) based on their vulnerability in order to save lives and
property.

Integrated Strategy: Emphasizing an integrated approach is essential. Understanding the

interconnected impacts of climate change on natural disasters, ecosystems, agriculture, and
livelihoods is crucial. Climate change, a non-military asymmetric threat has multidimensional
security implications which demand an integrated national security strategy. Collaboration among
government agencies, local communities, and international partners is imperative for a holistic and
effective response in case of handling mega disasters. Nevertheless, an integrated approach is
needed to address the security challenges emanating from climate change at the strategic level. The
first step for the strategists is to recognize the effects of climate change and identify the inter-
relationship of the various risks in national and international security. They should then ascertain
the long- and short-term approaches, instruments and institutions to deal with the root causes, and
their manifestations in security challenges (Rawal,2021).

Adaptive Measures: As Darwin's theory regarding natural selection and survival of the fittest says
“As the environment changed, the species affected by these changes changed in response to changes
in the environment” there is no way other than adaptation. Advocacy for the development and
implementation of adaptive measures is central to mitigating identified threats. This encompasses
infrastructure enhancements, the establishment of early warning systems, sustainable land-use
planning, and initiatives fostering livelihood diversification in communities dependent on
vulnerable sectors. Experts also claim that the consequences of climate change have started
interfering with military tactics and technologies. The changing operational environment due to
shifts in weather patterns and the occurrence of more frequent and severe extreme weather
conditions have altered operational environments, making military operations more unpredictable
and challenging for planning and execution (Malla, 2023).

Research, Sharing of Knowledge and experiences: The imperative for ongoing research cannot
be overstated. A nuanced understanding of the evolving dynamics of climate change impacts in the
region is vital for informed decision-making. National and international knowledge sharing is the
key to developing more effective solutions and policies.

Threat Assessment, planning and preparation: The geo-strategic location of Nepal has always
made it vulnerable when it comes to National Security. For the country like Nepal, having the
limited resources and capacity on hand to deal with climate change-related operations is much
costly. On the other hand management of the internal migration and likelihood of conflict is another
issue of National security. Being a country situated between two overly populated countries,
considering the existing border control system what security challenge does Nepal face if in case to
handle climate refugees comes from both neighbors. Hence, requires thorough assessment and
needs to be prepared to address accordingly.

International Cooperation: Highlighting the importance of international cooperation is essential

in addressing the transboundary nature of climate change impacts. United Nations agencies and
regional organizations are the best-suited partners to address the long-term effects of climate
change. Thus, for inter-agency coordination, there is a need to create a climate security focal point
at the highest level of each country’s bureaucracy. The last step will be to plan to treat the
symptoms and fundamental causes discretely while addressing their causal relationship holistically
(Rawal, 2021). Recognizing the shared environmental challenges, collaborative efforts can
significantly bolster resilience and promote sustainable development in Nepal.

Proactive action in protection of environment: Government needs finding innovative ways to

combat the effects of climate change and inculcate new behaviors to slow down the impending
consequences of human activity on the environment. In order to foster the go green campaign, Solid
plan can be implemented like, encouraging students for plantation upon joining the
School/university and nurture it until graduation. Scientific ways of waste management following
3R (Reduce, Reuse and Recycle) principle. Pragmatic and timely measure needs to be taken
proactively to identify the threat and ensure possible risk reduction.

Conclusion

Climate change and national security have become a buzz words in recent years in the field of
security studies for the last several decades. The issue of climate change is highly complex and
critical. The occurrence of climate change-induced disasters in Nepal has the potential to threat the
overall framework of national security through natural catastrophes. Mass migration, scarcity of the
important resources, mobilization of security forces handling catastrophes with limited resources
and involvement of friendly foreign nations’ armed forces in the name of humanitarian assistance
are a few issue related to national security. Furthermore, the issue of climate change may also be
fueled by the competition for energy resources encompassing fossil fuels, renewable energy
infrastructure and power generation. The potentialities of security impact from climate change
require proactive measures, regional and international cooperation and comprehensive strategies to
integrate climatic adaptation and disaster risk reduction. National efforts to build disaster resilience
to reduce the likelihood of impact by promoting equitable resource management along with
addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability will be a milestone in mitigating conflicts rooted
in climate change-induced disasters in future.

Unlike other security challenges, the effect of climate change has an intertwined global
phenomenon. To the Himalayan country like Nepal, Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, as
well as Disaster Risk Reduction and Response, should be the topmost priorities for the nation.
Climate change should be viewed and addressed through the lens of national security.
Unfortunately, to date, the government has not given them due consideration and has treated them
as ad-hoc ventures of thematic ministries. Climate change mitigation and disaster management
should also fall under the umbrella of the National Security Council. After all, national security is
the primary responsibility of the state. This critical non-military threat with high likelihood and
impact needs considerable attention and appropriate strategy to address the possible security
consequences. Indeed, the time has come for the nation to think beyond and above these critical
issues, as time is passing swiftly and the road ahead appears to be challenging and uncertain.

REFERENCES

Barnett, J. and N. Adger, (2007). Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Poli. Geog.,
26: 639-655. DOI: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.03.003

Barnett, J., (2003). Security and climate change. Global Environ. Change, 13: 7-17. DOI:
10.1016/S0959- 3780(02)00080-8

Blackett M. (2023). Climate change could be triggering more earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
World Economic Forum, Aug 14. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/08/climate-
change-trigger-earthquakes-volcanoes.

Coleman, J. (2014, November 2). CNN's Reliable Sources with host Brian Stelter. (B. Stelter,
Interviewer)

Conger, J. (2020). How Is Climate Change Affecting Global and National Security? Brink.
Crimmins M., (2022). How Climate Change Impacts Each Type of Natural Disaster. World on Fire,
September 7. https://www.pbs.org/wnet/peril-and-promise/2022/09/how-climate-change-
impacts-each-type-of-natural-disaster.

DCA. (2021). When Climate becomes a Threat, Evidence of Climate Change Induced Loss and
Damage in Nepal.

Emilio M.. (2015). Global Climate Change as a Threat to U.S. National Security.Journal of
Strategic Security 8, no. 5, 134-148. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/jss/vol8/iss5/13

Gambhir M., (2021 Apr).Climate Change and its Implications on India’s National Security.Centre
for Land Warfare Studies: Victory through Vision. 2021,
Aprilhttps://www.claws.in/static/IB-281_Climate-Change-and-its-Implications-on-India
%E2%80%99s-National-Security.pdf.

Gambhir M., (2021, April). Climate Change and its Implications on India’s National
Security.Centre for Land Warfare Studies: Victory through Vision.
https://www.claws.in/static/IB-281_Climate-Change-and-its-Implications-on-India
%E2%80%99s-National-Security.pdf

IPCC (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryVolum
e.pdf.

Joshua W Busby (2007 Nov ). Climate Change and National Security. Council on Foreign
Relations an Agenda for Action: 32.
https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/wps/cfr/0002812/index.html

Lieberman B., (2019, July 23). A Brief Introduction to Climate Change and National Security. The
Yale School for Climate Connection. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/a-brief-
introduction-to-climate-change-and-national-security.

Malla S. B. (2023). Climate Change: Catalyzing Threat To The National Security. The kathmandu
post, July 30.
NPCCBS, (2022). Climate Change Related Indicators of Nepal . Government of Nepal National
Planning Commission Central Bureau of Statistics Ramshah Path, Thapathali Kathmandu,
Nepal.

Obi N., (2011, Sep).Climate Change and Its Implication for National Security.Journal of
Environmental Research and Policies.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361394819

Onuoha F.C., and Ezirim G.E., (2010). Climatic Change and National Security: Exploring the
Conceptual and Empirical Connections in Nigeria. Journal of Sustainable Development in
Africa:12.

Paudel, R. R. (2021). Dimension of National Security and Development of Nepal. Unity Journal,
III(2020), (190-201).

Rashid M., Pereira J. J., Begum R. A, Aziz S., and MokhtarM. B., (2011, Jan). Climate Change and
its Implications to National Security. American Journal of Environmental Sciences.

Rawal S. S., (2021, April 8). Climate change and national security. The Kathamndu Post.
https://kathmandupost.com/columns/2021/04/08/climate-change-and-national-security

Sapkota R. & Rijal K.,(2016 Sep). Climate Change and Its Impacts in Nepal. Central Department of
Environmental Science, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal.

Scheffran J., Brzoska M.,, Brauch H.G., Link P.M. and Schilling J. (2012),. Climate Change,
Human Security and Violent Conflict: Challenges for Societal Stability”. Hexagon Series on
Human and Environmental Security and Peace :8.

Scheffran, J. and A. Battaglini, 2011.Climate and conflicts: The security risks of global warming.
Reg. Environ. Change, 11: 27-239. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-010-0175-8

Schewe E., (2018, Oct 25). Why Climate Change Is a National Security Issue. JSTORE.
https://daily.jstor.org/why-climate-change-is-a-national-security-issue.

Sharma R., (2022). Evolution of Nepal’s National Security Council and National Security. Unity
Journal, IV(2022), 144-160.Prithivi Narayan Shah Research Center.

WB & ADB (2021), Climate Risk Country Profile: Nepal. The World Bank & Asian Development
Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA.
Yadav L. (2022,May 06). National Security challenges for Nepal in the 21st Century. Telegraph
Nepal.