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The PredictAD project: development

of novel biomarkers and analysis


software for early diagnosis of the
rsfs.royalsocietypublishing.org Alzheimer’s disease
Kari Antila1, Jyrki Lötjönen1, Lennart Thurfjell2, Jarmo Laine3,
Marcello Massimini4, Daniel Rueckert5, Roman A. Zubarev6, Matej Orešič1,
Research Mark van Gils1, Jussi Mattila1, Anja Hviid Simonsen7, Gunhild Waldemar7
Cite this article: Antila K, Lötjönen J, and Hilkka Soininen8
Thurfjell L, Laine J, Massimini M, Rueckert D, 1
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, PO Box 1300, 33101 Tampere, Finland
Downloaded from https://royalsocietypublishing.org/ on 15 October 2021

Zubarev RA, Orešič M, van Gils M, Mattila J, 2


GE Healthcare, Stockholm, Sweden
Hviid Simonsen A, Waldemar G, Soininen H. 3
Nexstim Ltd, Helsinki, Finland
4
2013 The PredictAD project: development University of Milan, Milan, Italy
5
of novel biomarkers and analysis Imperial College London, London, UK
6
Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
software for early diagnosis of the Alzheimer’s 7
Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark
8
disease. Interface Focus 3: 20120072. University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsfs.2012.0072
Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia affecting
36 million people worldwide. As the demographic transition in the devel-
One contribution of 25 to a Theme Issue ‘The oped countries progresses towards older population, the worsening ratio
virtual physiological human: integrative of workers per retirees and the growing number of patients with age-related
approaches to computational biomedicine’. illnesses such as AD will challenge the current healthcare systems and
national economies. For these reasons AD has been identified as a health pri-
ority, and various methods for diagnosis and many candidates for therapies
Subject Areas:
are under intense research. Even though there is currently no cure for AD, its
computational biology, biomedical effects can be managed. Today the significance of early and precise diagnosis
engineering, systems biology of AD is emphasized in order to minimize its irreversible effects on the ner-
vous system. When new drugs and therapies enter the market it is also vital
Keywords: to effectively identify the right candidates to benefit from these. The main
objective of the PredictAD project was to find and integrate efficient bio-
Alzheimer’s disease, early diagnosis,
markers from heterogeneous patient data to make early diagnosis and to
clinical decision support systems monitor the progress of AD in a more efficient, reliable and objective
manner. The project focused on discovering biomarkers from biomolecular
Author for correspondence: data, electrophysiological measurements of the brain and structural, func-
Kari Antila tional and molecular brain images. We also designed and built a statistical
model and a framework for exploiting these biomarkers with other available
e-mail: kari.antila@vtt.fi
patient history and background data. We were able to discover several
potential novel biomarker candidates and implement the framework in soft-
ware. The results are currently used in several research projects, licensed to
commercial use and being tested for clinical use in several trials.

1. Introduction
Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia. Costs associ-
ated with dementia account for equivalent to about 1 per cent of the gross
domestic product of the whole world [1]. Currently, dementia affects approxi-
mately 36 million people worldwide. This number is expected to double during
the next 20 years [1]. The prevalence of AD in Europe will rise rapidly with the
ageing population. According to [2] the current ratio of four European working
age people per retiree will change to 2 : 1 by the year 2050. This will challenge
the current healthcare systems and national economies with the problem of

& 2013 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
providing good quality care to a growing number of people 2
with fewer resources available per patient. proteomics PET imaging MRI

rsfs.royalsocietypublishing.org
The current consensus is that the preventive actions and
therapies for AD should be started as soon as possible in
order to be effective. This emphasizes the importance of biomarker
early diagnosis. In Europe, the diagnosis of AD is made metabolomics extraction and TMS/EEG
about 20 months after the appearance of symptomatic quantification
memory problems [3]. However, the disease is known to pro-
gress for several years or even decades prior to appearance statistical
of the first clear symptoms. Despite this long period of memory and modelling and patient info
other tests analysis (age, sex, etc.)
progression, early diagnosis of AD remains a great challenge.
Unfortunately, there is currently no cure for AD although

Interface Focus 3: 20120072


different strategies for treating and managing AD and its best biomarkers and optimal models, implementation
effects are under investigation. Some of these are therapies in software for computer-assisted diagnosis
targeting the illness directly, such as anti-amyloid plaque
agents, or prevention strategies, such as lifestyle changes. Figure 1. Types of data, steps of analysis and the flow of information as realized in
When new drugs or prevention strategies become available, the PredictAD project. The types of input data are shown in parallelograms. Blue
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early diagnosis becomes even more essential because the can- parallelograms represent data which are required to be quantified for statistical
didates in need and to benefit from these therapies are to be analysis, whereas orange represent data already in quantified and measurable
identified at earliest possible stage. Moreover, objective and form. The two main steps of analysis are shown generalized in two red squares.
evidence-based observation of the success of the treatment The main results are shown in a green rounded rectangle.
is vital when following the efficacy of the chosen therapy.
This is especially important when developing and testing
new drugs and other candidates for therapies. and whether the metabolic interactions follow their normal
Today AD is clinically diagnosed by taking physical and pathways. In the case of a disease such as AD, these inter-
neurological examinations, and checking other signs of intellectual actions are presumably disturbed. In the project, we used
impairment through standard neuropsychological and cogni- metabolomics to reveal potential biomarkers for detecting
tive tests. In addition to these measures, the current guidelines AD [7]. This was done by analysing blood serum samples
for the diagnostics of AD [4–6] emphasize the role of various from three different groups: healthy controls, patients with
biomarkers. These include measures from magnetic resonance mild cognitive impairment (MCI), a possible pre-stage of AD,
imaging (MRI), positron emission tomography (PET), cerebro- and patients with AD. The samples were analysed with sensi-
spinal fluid (CSF) protein profiles as well as genetic risk profiles. tive mass spectrometer platforms capable of detecting tiny
The main objective of the PredictAD (www.predictad.eu) differences in concentrations of metabolites. The mass
EU-funded VPH research project (June 2008 to November spectrometer data were analysed with a software platform
2011) was to find and integrate efficient biomarkers from designed to detect the presence of known and yet unknown
heterogeneous patient data to make early diagnosis, and pro- metabolite groups and to compare the differences in metabolite
gress monitoring of AD in a more efficient, reliable and concentrations between the three groups of subjects. The results
objective manner. This article summarizes the work done in were used to test which kind of metabolites have potential to
biomarker discovery from different data sources, and in be biomarkers indicating the processes related to AD.
developing a data-driven clinical decision support tool for Proteins are large macromolecules that take part in most
combining and effectively exploiting the information in functions of the living cell from structural formation to guid-
these biomarkers. The main types of data and steps of ing the various biological processes in the cell. The synthesis
analysis are shown in figure 1. and function of proteins especially in the neurons of the brain
are affected by AD. During the project, in a rather similar way
to metabolites, protein concentrations were analysed with a
sensitive mass spectrometer and a special software was
2. Data and methods developed and used, and to analyse and interpret the results
2.1. Biomarkers from biomolecular data [8]. This analysis was first done by pooling the samples from
Reliable indicators of AD such as traces of beta-amyloid and four different groups: healthy, stable MCI (SMCI), progress-
protein tau in the brain can be extracted from CSF. Unfortunately, ive MCI (PMCI), a condition to be progressed to AD, and
collecting of CSF is a rather invasive and even somewhat risky AD to find stronger signals of differences with these groups
procedure. This makes the extraction of CSF-based biomarkers and to narrow the scope of potential proteins. These analyses
challenging and unpractical for early detection by large-scale were then repeated for individual samples to identify the best
screenings. Developing CSF-based biomarkers is also challen- protein biomarker candidates for indicating AD.
ging owing to the sensitive measurements required, which
often leads to poor cross-institutional consistency. For these
reasons, the possibilities of using easily available and low cost 2.2. Biomarkers from electrophysiology
blood samples are gaining more attention. AD is known to cause abnormal structural and functional
Metabolites are by definition the small molecules in the degeneration of the brain. The brain goes through constant
blood involved in metabolism, which is a common definition changes during lifetime, and the challenge is to identify
for the vital series of chemical reactions that take place in the which of those are related to normal ageing and which are
living body. The existence of different metabolites in blood caused by AD or other diseases. Electroencephalography
give indications on how cells live, breathe and communicate, (EEG) can be used for characterizing the electrophysiology of
the brain, known to be affected in AD. Measuring typical One of the most promising methods in the early diagnosis 3
evoked responses requires interaction with the subject, which of AD is PET imaging using a molecular tracer that binds

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can be challenging with patients having severe symptoms. to amyloid plaques.
One approach to overcome this is to measure how the brain During the project, we developed methods for the seg-
will respond to external electromagnetic stimulus. Transcranial menting and extracting features of spatio-temporal brain
magnetic stimulation combined with EEG (TMS/EEG) is a structures in MR and PET images. We focused on developing
novel non-invasive tool for measuring the strength of the fast and robust segmentation of the hippocampus, brain atro-
neural connectivity of the brain. According to the method, phy-rate measurements, tensor-based morphometry and
magnetic pulse is first applied to an area on the brain cortex manifold learning [12 –15]. We also developed tools for the
and its response is immediately measured using EEG. Precise analysis of FDG-PET and PET amyloid imaging [16,17]. The
localization of the coils sending the TMS pulses and the elec- clinical usefulness of these methods was evaluated in terms
trodes recording EEG with respect to the brain allows of robustness, accuracy and computation times by analysing

Interface Focus 3: 20120072


directing of the stimulation to the areas of interest and map- data from several patient cohorts.
ping of the responses around the cortex with great spatial
and temporal resolution. With the help of MRI, features of
brain anatomy can be correlated with recorded potentials. 2.4. Model and software for integrating biomarkers
TMS/EEG can be used to estimate the functional state of The availability of data in massive scientific cohorts collected
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brain unbiased by the cognitive impairment and subjective by large healthcare systems is a tremendous asset for scientific
functional performance of patients with AD. research. However making, holistic, truthful and objective view
In the project, we studied the responses of stimulating the of the state of the patient becomes very challenging as the data-
frontal cortex of healthy young volunteers, healthy elderly bases grow or when new databases or biomarkers become
volunteers and subjects with AD [9]. In another study [10], available. Effective use of the whole spectrum of data require
the motor cortex of three subject groups, healthy, MCI and simple, reliable, fast and intuitive ways of comparing new,
AD were stimulated and recorded. Our purpose was to ana- undiagnosed subject data against the existing databases.
lyse the correlation between the thickness of the cortex and Information sciences have developed a wealth of methods
strength of the electromagnetic field as a result to the stimu- for processing and analysing multi-dimensional heterogeneous
lation. A unified mathematical framework was developed to data. Most publications discussing the detection of AD from
analyse the TMS/EEG data, at the sensor as well as at the multiple patient measurements use the common classifiers
source level, including statistical analysis for identifying of statistics such as support vector machines. These classi-
the spatio-temporal pattern of brain activity significantly fiers define the most probable class label for a given patient
evoked by TMS. The methods for the data analysis were using a decision model derived from the training data. The
implemented in Matlab. use of such classifiers in the clinical practice requires either
very high classification accuracy validated in large patient
cohorts or an estimate about the reliability of the classification
2.3. Biomarkers from imaging data result for each respective case. When analysing complex dis-
The presence of medial temporal lobe atrophy (tissue loss) is eases, the biomarkers may not contain enough information to
a hallmark indicator of the AD. MRI provides an excellent separate the healthy from ill with high accuracy. Therefore,
tool for quantifying early and disproportionate brain atrophy. tools that enable the assessment of the reliability of the classifi-
Because manual delineation of different structures is highly cation are needed. Another challenge is that the transition from
laborious and subjective, automated and objective methods the healthy state to the disease state is not typically a discrete
are needed. A high number of image analysis techniques event, especially in neurodegenerative diseases where the dis-
have been developed for quantifying the size and shape of ease progresses very slowly. An index that reflects the disease
different brain structures, especially the hippocampus, amyg- probability or disease severity could provide a solution for
dala and entorhinal cortex in the context of AD. Other both of these challenges.
commonly used measures are cortical thickness, atrophy We addressed these needs by developing a novel frame-
rate from longitudinal data and voxel- and region-based work combining heterogeneous multi-source data and
characteristics using morphometric techniques [11]. Although providing an evidence-based index reflecting the probability
automated tools are developed actively in many research of the disease in the case of an individual subject [18]. This
groups, the development of robust, accurate and fast auto- index, called the Disease State Index (DSI), is computed by
matic methods has proved to be a very challenging comparing the measurements of a yet undiagnosed case
problem and automatic methods are still very much lacking against a large number of measurements from healthy and dis-
in clinical practice. eased subjects collected to databases. In addition, a graphical
In addition to structural imaging, functional imaging counterpart of DSI, the Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) was
offers complementary information about the status of the developed for visualizing the state of the patient in a way
brain. For example, fludeoxyglucose (FDG) PET images that a clinician can easily see and understand how different
show response to the glucose metabolism in the brain, measures of various biomarkers contribute to the index. A
which is highly correlated with the loss of neurons owing measure of relevance was defined to estimate the reliability
to AD, and is hence useful for monitoring the progression of DSI assessment in making every individual decision. The
and for determining the severity of the disease. MRI and framework was realized in the PredictAD software tool
FDG-PET both show secondary effects of the disease process. (figure 2) for the Microsoft Windows environment. The soft-
It is hypothesized that AD is caused by accumulation of amy- ware was implemented with an intuitive user interface and
loid plaques in the brain. Because of this there has been an the relevant components integrated so that it could be used
increased interest in in vivo imaging of amyloid deposits. as stand-alone clinical decision support system (CDSS).
4

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Figure 2. Screenshot of the PredictAD software tool. Top-left: Patient details window contains basic information about the patient. Bottom-left: timeline of Entries
window shows an overview of all patient measurement in function of time. It shows also if the measured value points towards a disease or healthy state. The window is
interactive and pressing any of the measurements provides details in the Entry preview window. Top-centre: Entry preview window provides details of different patient
measurements (here Mini Mental State Examination). The ‘Analyze’ button directs the user to detailed analysis of data, e.g. image segmentation. Top-right: Disease state
fingerprint (DSF) window shows the DSF of the patient. DSF is interactive and the user can study freely different hierarchical levels of the tree. Detailed analysis of DSF
can be entered by the ‘Explore’-button. Bottom-right: Disease state index (DSI) window shows the DSI of the patient. This window is linked to the DSF window. As user
selects any of the items in the DSF, the details of the item are shown, i.e. probability density distributions with the patient measurement overlaid, number of cases used
for computing the distributions and contributions of different measures at the lower hierarchical levels to the selected item.

verified with individual samples ( p  0.01). Higher levels of


3. Results isoAsp were also found on females. This study together
3.1. Biomarkers from biomolecular data with previous findings gives grounds to a hypotheses that
In our study of metabolites, we found groups of molecules isoAsp might be a significant marker in early processes
which show significantly lower levels in subjects with AD resulting to AD.
[7]. Our data included samples from the first entry to the hos- To summarize, we managed to achieve promising results
pital and from the follow-up visit several years later when the by discovering novel and verifying previously hypothesized
symptoms were severe enough to make the diagnosis. The molecular level signatures. Our findings suggest that hypoxia,
best power ( p ¼ 0.0135) of separating the subjects with AD oxidative stress, membrane lipid remodelling and abnormal
at the baseline was found in a group of ether phospholipids protein aggregation might have role in early AD. Establish-
that are significant building blocks of cell membranes. The ment of pathogenic relevance of predictive biomarkers such
best model having a combination of metabolites included as these may not only facilitate early diagnosis, but may also
with age was able to separate patients with AD area under help identify new therapeutic avenues.
curve (AUC) performance 0.81. The setting gave us the
opportunity to test the power of different sets of metabolites
in predicting which MCI patients will eventually progress to 3.2. Biomarkers from electrophysiology
AD (PMCI) and which will remain stable (SMCI). The model We were able to demonstrate, that TMS-evoked potentials
with the best power of predicting the progression had three applied to frontal cortex are reduced in AD patients when
metabolites (2,4-dihydroxybutanoic acid, unidentified car- compared with age-matched or younger healthy controls
boxylic acid a phosphatidylcholine). With this setting, we [9]. Interestingly no significant difference in the TMS-
were able to achieve reasonably good AUC ¼ 0.77. evoked potentials between healthy young and healthy elderly
Our main discovery in proteomics was the high level of controls was found. This suggests that normal age-related
isoaspartyl (isoAsp) residues ( p ¼ 0.03) in blood plasma of frontal lobe atrophy does not affect cortical excitability, but
patients with AD [8]. Increased levels were discovered by is weakened on patients with AD. We also discovered a cor-
pooling and analysing samples from healthy controls against relation between cortical thinning and weaker cortical
samples from MCI and AD patients. These results were excitability on the motor cortex [10]. The previously reported
effect of increased excitability in AD on the sensorimotor 3.4. Model and software 5
cortex, possibly compensating the loss of cortical volume, In the study of Mattila et al. [18], we used the baseline data

rsfs.royalsocietypublishing.org
was also recorded. This mechanism was not found on MCI from the Alzheimer’s disease neuroimaging initiative (ADNI;
patients, which might indicate that the progression of the dis- http://www.adni-info.org/, accessed 26 October 2012.) to
ease proceeds with different dynamics in the structure and benchmark the ability of the DSI to model disease progression
function of neuronal circuits from normal conditions via from elderly healthy controls to AD and its ability to predict
MCI to AD. conversion from MCI to AD. We found that the DSI provides
When combined, the results show that it is possible to well-behaving AD state estimates that correspond well with
extract synthetic indices of cortical excitability and effective the existing diagnoses. For predicting conversion from MCI
connectivity from TMS/EEG data that significantly correlate to AD, the DSI attains performance similar to state of the art
with clinical measures of cognitive decline. Thus, TMS/EEG reference classifiers. The results suggest that the DSF estab-
technology has clear potential in defining novel biomarkers

Interface Focus 3: 20120072


lishes an effective decision support and data visualization
for the diagnostics of AD. framework for improving AD diagnostics, allowing clinicians
to rapidly analysse large quantities of diverse patient data.
The validation of the implementation of DSI/DSF frame-
3.3. Biomarkers from imaging data work in a software solution (figure 2) showed that its use
We developed a method of segmenting the hippocampus, improves clinicians’ diagnostic accuracy and their confidence
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which is one of the first areas of the brain affected by AD, about their decisions compared with current diagnostic
from MRI images [12]. The reliability of method was verified work-flows [20,21]. Our results show that using the tool diag-
by comparing the results against a semi-automatic method. nosis could be made with high accuracy for 50 per cent of MCI
A Dice similarity of 0.87 between the methods was achieved. cases about twelve months earlier than is currently possible
The speed of the method was found sufficient for use in clini- [22]. One of the innovations in PredictAD is the stratification
cal practice. The rates of hippocampal atrophy, i.e. tissue loss, of populations, i.e. patients can be categorized to clear and
in consecutive MRI scans were also studied [13]. We devel- less-clear cases based on the property of continuity of the
oped a method which segments image pairs or triplets in a DSI. As the ADNI data from about 400 cases was used in
single step in order to compute an estimate of the rate. We this study, these numbers do not contain improvements that
found different patterns of atrophy between the healthy are obtained by including the novel blood, amyloid-PET and
and subjects with AD and significant ( p , 0.01) correlations TMS/EEG-based biomarkers. If these markers were used,
between atrophy measurements and other clinical variables the numbers would presumably be significantly better. Unfor-
such as Mini Mental State Examination. Beyond hippocampus, tunately there is yet no cohort having all these data available.
we studied whole brain feature extraction using tensor-based
morphometry [14]. We found that use of a selection of multiple
templates gives significantly better classification accuracy
(normal versus AD 86%, stable MCI versus progressive MCI
72,1%) than can be achieved with conventional single template 4. Discussion
methods. Changes in total of 84 brain areas were analysed and The significance of early diagnosis of AD has been recog-
the best ones in classifying normal versus AD were found to nized and emphasized in many different forums and
be close to the hippocampus. In another study, modern mani- contexts. Success in developing effective means for the
fold-learning-based techniques were used to map similar early diagnosis would have major impact first in the devel-
patients close to each other in the new manifold space [15]. oped countries and later in the rest of the world owing
When brain image biomarkers were combined non-imaging to the demographic transition towards older population.
biomarkers, we found that the addition of biomarkers such Despite large past and on-going efforts in developing early
as genotype, and the concentration of beta-amyloid residue diagnosis of AD the problem remains largely unsolved. It is
in CSF to the classifier improved the classification results the current understanding that no simple and easy solution
(normal versus AD, stable MCI versus progressive MCI and will likely be discovered soon.
normal versus progressive MCI). Our contribution to solving the problem was not to focus
In the study of Gray et al. [16], we focused on combining on finding a single indicator, but to develop a methodology
functional FDG-PET data with MRI images. By co-registering which is capable of using the little clues and hints collected
FDG-PET and MRI images, and analysing FDG-PET signal along the patient history in a systematic fashion. The signifi-
strengths on several brain areas in two time points, we cance and relevance of the available information were tested
were able achieve state of the art level classification accuracy against past data on similar patients whose outcome has been
(normal versus AD 88%, SMCI versus PMCI 65%). In another documented. This way decisions on whether to take more
PET study [17], we explored the relation between hippocam- tests or give diagnosis and estimate the state of the disease
pal atrophy in MRI images and beta-amyloid deposit signals on already collected information could be made. This meth-
traced with [18F]flutemetamol. The study showed that MRI odology was realized in a usable and intuitive way and so
and PET provide complementary information for diagnostics. that the reliability and accuracy of the developed methods
Overall, we did a comprehensive validation for used and were verifiable. By putting together a team of experts of sev-
developed MR image analysis methods: data from six cohorts eral disciplines such as molecular chemistry, bioinformatics,
consisting of almost 2000 subjects in total were used. In a medical imaging, statistics, software engineering, business
specific comparison study, it was found that no single and clinical medicine, we were able to study, develop and
method appeared clearly superior to the others [19]. It was oversee steps from fundamental research to clinically usable
shown that the combination of the results from all developed software implementation. We also believe that having scien-
method improves the diagnostic accuracy. tists, engineers, and clinicians working in collaboration,
there are significantly better chances of enabling results of impact in several ways. Accurate an early diagnosis would 6
fundamental research to benefit the clinical routine. delay the progression AD, and thus likely reduce the need

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Many approaches of using multiple biomarkers in the early for institutional care significantly. This point will become
detection of AD have been and are currently being studied. For critical when more effective therapies will emerge. Efficient
example, Fan et al. [23] have successfully combined biomarkers use of CDSSs would bring give more value to existing infor-
from structural and molecular imaging to classify the samples mation collected to reference databases and to the data
to MCI and AD patients. In recent work by Fonteijn et al. [24], collected by testing the subject being diagnosed. CDSSs will
the disease progression is modelled successfully through a help in objectively defining the point where enough evidence
series of consecutive events where a number of measurements has been collected and no potentially expensive, laborious or
of different biomarkers have been taken. A rough disease pro- even risky further test are needed. Evidence suggesting solid
gression model as proposed by Jack et al. [25] was used as cost versus benefit gains when using [18] was found based on
a basis. The same progression model is used in the work by Jedy- the cost per procedure data from project partner hospitals.

Interface Focus 3: 20120072


nak et al. [26]. There a disease progression score was composed These results are yet to be published.
from a number of sigmoid functions each of which were intro- To conclude, PredictAD took various steps towards
duced to estimate the disease progression as indicated by a more objective and efficient diagnostics in AD on several
respective biomarker. In contrast to our work the methods pro- fronts. We were able to make new discoveries by acquiring
posed in recent studies [24,26], assume a monotonic progression and analysing new data, developing novel, and redefining
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of the disease in light of the many measured biomarkers. As a current methods for reprocessing existing data and build-
potential advantage over our approach, the possible relative ing a framework in software that is capable of integrating
power of biomarkers in estimating the disease state during the and visualizing masses of heterogeneous data for the foun-
course of the disease is taken into account. A particular benefit dation of evidence-based clinical decisions. The project
of our approach over many other disease models is the ability provided several novel tools for biomarker discovery and a
to visualize the individual contributions of different biomarkers novel data-driven and evidence-based disease profiling.
with the DSF (figure 2) in the final disease index value. The results are currently used in several research projects,
Utilization of clinical disease support systems, such as licensed to commercial use and being tested for clinical use
discussed in Mattila et al. [18], has potential economic in several trials.

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