Population

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IGCSE Geography CIE Your notes
1.1 Population Dynamics

Contents
1.1.1 Population
1.1.2 Population Change
1.1.3 Population Policies
Page 1 of 25
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1.1.1 Population
Your notes
Population Increase
The world's population is increasing by approximately 80 million people a year
In 1804 the world population was 1 billion
Population growth was steady and low
It then took just over 100 years for the population to double to 2 billion
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Exam Tip
Your notes
In the exam you may be asked to describe population change on a graph. Remember to consider
the following points
What is the main trend? Is it increasing, decreasing or staying about the same?
Has the change been rapid or slow?
Have changes occurred during specific times?
Are there any anomalies?
Don't forget to use figures from the graph
The rate of increase after 1930 was then more rapid and led to a population explosion
The fastest increase in population happened during the 1980s and 1990s
Population growth rate is the average annual change of the population siz e during a set period
of time, usually a year
The population is still increasing but at a slower rate
In 1970 the growth rate was 2%
In 2022 the growth rate is under 1%
It is predicted by the UN that the population will stabilise at around 11 billion in 2100
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Your notes
Exam Tip
Population increase is not the same as the population growth rate. The population can increase
at different rates. The rate at which it is increasing is known as the population growth rate.
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Overpopulation & Underpopulation

Every area has a carrying capacity this is the number of people that an area can support Your notes
Overpopulation occurs when there are more people in an area than can be supported by its
resources and technology
Underpopulation occurs when there are more resources available than the population can
use effectively
Overpopulation can lead to increased:
Levels of pollution
Crime rates
Unemployment or underemployment
Levels of food and water shortages
Pressure on services such as hospitals and schools
Underpopulation also has consequences including:
Fewer people pay taxes which can lead to higher taxes
Underused resources, which can lead to waste
A shortage of workers
Lower levels of exports and production which affects the wealth of an area
Fewer customers for goods and services
The optimum population occurs when there is a balance between the number of people and the
resources/technology available
It is the optimum population that results in the highest standard of living because:
There are not so many people or so few resources that the standard of living falls
There are enough people to develop the resources of the country
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Your notes
Optimum Theory of Population
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Worked example
Your notes
Study Figure 1.1 which shows information about population and
resources
How does the balance between population and resources differ

between a country which is under-populated and one which is
over-populated?
[1]
Answer:
An under-populated country has more resources than population but an over-populated
country has more population than resources [1]
Exam Tip
It is important to remember that over-population is not simply that there are a lot of people and
under-population is not there are few people. The terms refer to the balance between
population and resources. There may be many people in a country, but it is only over-populated
when there are too few resources to support that population.
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Case Study: Nigeria

Nigeria's population is over 217 million and is forecast to reach 400 million by 2050 and 1 billion by Your notes
2100
Lagos is predicted to become the world's largest city by 2100
30% of the population live in poverty earning less than $515 a year
The urban population has increased from 18% in 1960 to almost 53% in 2021
Nigeria is experiencing rapid population growth at 2.5%
Nigeria's population density is 226 people per km2
In Lagos, the population density reaches 6871 people per km2
Resources
Nigeria has many resources including oil, gas, iron ore, coal, z inc and arable land
The resources do not provide wealth to the whole population due to:
Poor management
Ownership by foreign companies
Corruption
The top 5 richest Nigerians own and control more resources than the remaining 95% combined
Combined with rapid population growth, it means that currently, resources are not supporting the
population
Causes of over-population
The high birth and fertility rates are the main cause of the rapidly increasing population
The age of marriage in some areas can be as low as 13 and 45% of women are married before they
reach 18
This increases the number of children each woman has; due to being married and of
childbearing age for longer
The fertility rate is 5.32 births per woman (2019)
Larger families are traditionally associated with higher social status
In the past infant mortality rates have been high 125 per 1000 (1990) this decreased to 72 per 1000
High infant mortality rates are associated with high fertility rates as women have more
children to ensure that some survive to adulthood. It takes time for this to adjust to lower
infant mortality rates
Religious beliefs lead to larger family siz e
Lack of education about family planning and contraception
The decreasing death rate also contributes to the rising population
Life expectancy is increasing
The death rate has fallen from 19 per 1000 (1990) to 11 per 1000 (2020)
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Your notes
Population of Nigeria
Impacts of overpopulation
Lack of fresh water which leads to the spread of disease
29% of children in Nigeria do not have enough water to meet their daily needs
Increased levels of water, air and land pollution
Lagos has one of the highest levels of air pollution of any city in the world
Increased cultivation of land for food which leads to soil erosion and desertification
40 million people in northern Nigeria are at risk of losing their livelihoods due to
desertification
19.5 million faces acute food insecurity
Increased pressure on already poor services such as health and education
Higher crime rates
High youth unemployment has led to increased gang activity and militant groups
Development of informal settlements around cities particularly Lagos
An estimated 70% of the population of Lagos lives in informal settlements
66% live on less than US$1 a day
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Case Study: Canada

Canada is the second-largest country in the world Your notes
Population of 38.5 million
Population density of 4 people per km2
The rate of natural increase for Canada is 2.42 per 1000
Most of the net population increase is the result of immigration
Resources
Canada has vast resources:
Fishing - it has the longest coastline in the world
Largest producer of z inc and uranium
Timber
Gas, coal and oil
Gold, nickel, lead and aluminium
Major exporter of wheat
Causes of under-population
The main cause of under-population in Canada is the low birth and fertility rates
Low birth rate of 9 births per 1000
Fertility rate is 1.47 children per woman which is below the fertility replacement rate of 2.1
The reasons for these low rates include:
The average age for a woman to have her first child is 31 years, which means that her
childbearing years are reduced
Increased levels of family planning and access to contraceptives
Higher levels of education mean that women have careers and delay having children
It has many areas which are remote and difficult to access, building infrastructure for settlements
and industry would be costly
Impacts of under-population
Shortages of workers in a number of areas including:
Construction
Engineering
Food services
Health care
Low rates of unemployment
An ageing population means more people of retirement age
Fewer workers to pay taxes
Healthcare and other social costs increase as the population ages
Resources are not exploited fully reducing potential
Lack of services due to low demand particularly in rural areas
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Worked example
Your notes
Describe the impacts of over-population on a country
[4]
Identify the command word
The command word is 'Describe'
The focus of the question is 'over-population'
Take care to ensure that you focus on over-population
Answer
Any four from the following:
Lack of housing/overcrowded houses/shanty towns [1]
Pressure on health care [1]
Pressure on educational facilities [1]
Lack of employment/low wages [1]
Lack of food/farmland/starvation/need to import more food [1]
Pressure on water supplies/lack of water [1]
Pressure on sanitation/lots of waste/waste disposal problems [1]
Traffic congestion/jams [1]
Overuse of agricultural land/desertification/have to farm marginal land [1]
Deforestation [1]
Air/water pollution [1]
Poverty [1]
Pressure on electricity/power/fuel shortages [1]
Government introduces anti-natal policy [1]
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1.1.2 Population Change

Your notes
Population Change
Population Change
There are two ways in which a population can change:
Migration
Natural population change
Migration
Migration can cause the population to either increase or decrease
This occurs as the result of emigration or immigration
Net migration is the difference between the number of people moving into a country
(immigrants) and the number of people leaving the country (emigrants)
Exam Tip
Remember immigration and emigration are not the same. Immigration is the inward movement of
people into a country. Emigration is the outward movement of people from a country.
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Natural Population Change

Natural causes of population change Your notes
There are many factors which have combined to cause the rapid population increase including
improvements in:
Agriculture during the agricultural revolution led to higher yields and more varied diets
Medicine and medical care which reduces the death rate
Technology and transport, lead to a wealthier population which increases life expectancy
All these factors led to a decrease in the death rate
The birth rate remained has remained high mainly in LEDCs due to:
Lack of access to family planning and contraception
An increase in women surviving childbirth
Families continue to have large numbers of children to look after their parents in old age and
to help support the family
The culture of having larger families which takes many years to change
Religious reasons
Natural change in population is calculated by deducting the death rate from the birth rate
The combination of a decreasing death rate and high birth rate led to rapid natural increase and
population explosion
Population also changes as a result of migration into and out of a country/area
Natural decrease occurs when the birth rate is lower than the death rate
Demographic Transition Model

The demographic transition model illustrates the five generalised stages of population change
that countries pass through as they develop
It shows how birth and death rates change over time and how this affects the overall population
as the country
Page 13 of 25
Your notes
The Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1
The total population is low
High birth rates due to lack of contraception/family planning
High death rates due to poor healthcare, poor diet and famine
High infant mortality which leads people to have more children so that some children survive to
adulthood
Stage 2
The total population starts to rise rapidly
Birth rates remain high as people continue to have large families
Death rates decrease as a result of improved diets, better healthcare, lower infant mortality and
increased access to clean water
Stage 3
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The total population continues to increase but the rate of growth begins to slow
Birth rate begins to fall rapidly due to increased birth control, family planning, increased cost of
raising children and low infant mortality rate Your notes
Death rate still decreasing but at a slower rate as improvements in medicine, hygiene, diet and
water quality continue
Stage 4
The total population is high and is increasing slowly
The birth rate is low and fluctuating due to accessible birth control and the choice of having
fewer children as well as delaying the age women start to have children
The death rate is low and fluctuates
Stage 5
The total population starts to slowly decline as the death rate exceeds the birth rate
The birth rate is low and slowly decreasing
The death rate is low and fluctuates
Worked example
Explain why birth rates are still high in many LEDCs
[4]
Identify the command word
The command word is 'explain'
The focus of the question is 'birth rates'
Take care to ensure that you focus on LEDCs (Less Economically Developed Countries)
Answer
Any two from the following with an explanation or any four from the following:
Lack of /don’t use/cannot afford contraception [1]
Lack of education about contraception/about problems of large families [1]
Children needed for work/to earn money/for farming; needed to look after elderly/no
pensions [1]
Children needed to do household chores or example – fetching wood/water, cleaning
the house, and looking after younger children [1]
Traditional views about large families/polygamy/families want a male child [1]
Religious/cultural views on contraception/abortion/family siz e [1]
High infant mortality/they have more babies so some will survive [1]
Early marriages/teenage pregnancy [1]
Lack of emancipation for women/women don’t have careers/lack of education for
women [1]
No access to sexual (family) health clinics including abortion, etc. [1]
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Population Change
All countries have different rates of population change Your notes
Population growth rates are currently highest in LEDCs such as Niger, Mali and Zambia
Population growth rates are lowest in MEDCs
In some MEDCs such as Italy and Japan, the population is decreasing as the number of deaths
is higher than the number of births
World population growth rates

These changes are dependent on three factors:
Fertility
Mortality
Migration
Fertility
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As well as the birth rate, fertility can also be measured by the fertility rate
There are a number of factors affecting fertility which can be categorised as social, economic or
political Your notes
Social Economic Political
Infant mortality rate - when Cost of having children - in

this is high the fertility rate also
MEDCs the cost of raising Pronatalist policies encourage
tends to be high as women children may reduce the women to have children and
have more children to ensure number of children a woman increase the fertility rate
some survive to adulthood has
Lack of pensions - in LEDCs
Education - higher levels of Anti-natalist policies
children are needed to care for
education lead to lower fertility encourage women to have
elderly parents as there are no
rates as more women are in fewer children which
pensions. This increases the
formal employment decreases the fertility rate
fertility rate
Contribution to family income
Religion - religious beliefs can - in LEDCs children often work
influence how many children a to contribute to family income
woman has so more children are needed,
increasing the fertility rate
Healthcare - the availability of
contraception and family
planning
Mortality
The death rate is affected by a range of factors:
Quality of, and access to, healthcare
Natural disasters - famine, drought
Diseases such as HIV/AIDS
War/conflict
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Worked example
Your notes
Give three reasons why death rates vary from country to country
[3]
Answer
Any three from ideas such as (variations in the amount/quality of):
health care/hospital/clinics/medicines [1]
number of people per doctor/availability of doctors [1]
food supply/diet/famine/starvation [1]
water supply/quality/drought [1]
sanitation/hygiene [1]
diseases or examples/AIDS or HIV [1]
wars [1]
vaccinations [1]
education about healthcare/disease [1]
care for the elderly/pensions [1]
Page 18 of 25
Case Study: Niger

In 1960 the population of Niger was 3.3 million Your notes
By 2021 the population had reached nearly 25 million
A population growth rate of 3.8%
This is the combination of a high birth rate and a rapidly decreasing death rate
High Birth Rate
The reasons for the high birth and fertility rates in Niger include:
The average age of marriage is 15.7 years meaning that women have more childbearing years
Low levels of education for women only 4 out of 10 girls finish primary school
High value is placed on large families
Only 12% of women use modern contraception
Fertility Rate in Niger

The death rate in Niger is decreasing falling from 29 per 1000 (1960) to 8 per 1000 (2020)
The decreasing death rate has been the result of:
Increased urbanisation - which improves access to services such as healthcare and food
Better food and clean water supply
Improved access to healthcare
Government policies to improve farming practices which have increased food supplies
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Free healthcare to pregnant women improving mother and baby survival rates
Impacts Your notes

A highly dependent population of young people below the age of 15
Increased pressure on schools and health services
A younger population should increase economic growth but job and wealth distribution is uneven
Increased rural-urban migration to seek work
Development of illegal settlements on the edges of cities
Food shortages - an estimated 2.5 million people are suffering from food insecurity
Reducing population growth

In 2014 Niger adopted a framework to promote fertility reduction by:
Abolishing child marriage (marriage under the age of 18)
Improving access to education
Improved access to health services, contraception and family planning advice
Girls and women no longer need permission from parents/husbands to access
contraception
Married and/or pregnant girls can still go to school to ensure they continue to receive an
education
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Case Study: Japan

In 2010 Japan's population reached 128.1 million people Your notes
In 2020 the population had decreased to 125.8 million people
Japan has a population change rate of -0.3%
This is a combination of a low birth rate and an ageing population
Japan's Population Structure
Low Birth Rate

The fertility rate in Japan is 1.36 births per woman, well below the fertility replacement rate of 2.1
The birth rate is 7.1 per 1000 people
The reasons for the low birth rate include:
Increasing numbers of women focussing on careers and delaying having children
Inability to afford buying/renting own home (70% of unmarried people live with their parents)
Declining marriage rate and increase in average age people get married (women 29.5 years,
men 31 years)
Economic insecurity - jobs are not as secure
The expense of children is high due to childcare costs
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Ageing population
The death rate has increased in Japan from a low of 6 per 1000 in 1982 to 11 per 1000 in 2020 Your notes
In that time life expectancy has increased from an average of 77 years to 84.36 years
This means the increased death rate is not due to poorer healthcare, diet or standard of living but
because the population is ageing
One-third of the population is over 60 years old and over 12% are over 75
Older people are more likely to become unwell and die
The more elderly the population, the higher the proportion of people who will die
Impacts
Shortage of workers
Increasing numbers of the population being retired there are not enough workers to replace
them
Fewer innovations
Closure of some services
Higher taxes
An ageing population puts more pressure on health service and pension payments
There is predicted to be a shortage of 380,000 workers for elderly care by 2025
Taxes have to be increased to pay for healthcare and pensions
School closures
Fewer children mean that schools and childcare facilities may close with the loss of jobs
An average of 450 schools close each year due to falling numbers
Economic stagnation
The economy does not grow due to a lack of workers and the closure of businesses and
industry
The standard of living does not improve or falls
Solutions
Development of robots to help with elderly care such as in the Shin-tomi nursing home in Tokyo
Immigration laws were revised in 2018 to attract foreign workers and help with the worker
shortage
The aim is to attract 340,000 new workers
The Angel Plan was a five year plan in 1994 to increase the birth rate, followed by the New Angel
Plan in 1999 and Plus One Policy in 2009 these all aimed to encourage people to have children by;
Improving the work environment to fit with family responsibilities
Better childcare services
Improved maternity and child health services
Better housing for families
Improved education facilities
Page 22 of 25
Plus One Proposal is the most recent policy and aims to increase 'parent-friendly' working and
the construction of 50,000 new daycare facilities
Your notes
Page 23 of 25
1.1.3 Population Policies

Your notes
Population Policies
Many countries have at some time had population policies in an attempt to either reduce or
increase their populations
Governments do this to try and achieve a balance between population and resources
Policies focus on birth rates and sometimes migration
Anti-natalist policies
The aim of anti-natalist policies is to reduce pressure on resources and improve the quality of
life for the whole population
These are policies introduced to reduce the birth rate
Policies can be law - as in China - or they can be voluntary
The best-known example is China's one-child policy which was in effect from 1979 to 2016,
although it was relaxed in 1999
The policy used a variety of methods to reduce the birth rate including:
Fines for having more than one child
Increased access to contraceptives and family planning education
Posters and adverts to promote the advantages of only having one child
Better employment opportunities for those with only one child
No payment for education or healthcare for second children
There were also reports of forced abortions and sterilisations
Promoting late marriages
Abortion was legalised
The policy has had many impacts including:
Affecting the male/female ratio due to the preference for male children
There are over 30 million more men under 20 than women under 20
Decrease in population growth rate
An ageing population
Other countries/special administrative regions which have had anti-natalist policies in the past
include:
Singapore 1972-1987
Taiwan 1964 - late 1970s
Pro-natalist policies
The aim of pro-natalist policies is to increase the population due to:
An ageing population which increases social and healthcare costs
A workforce shortage
Reduced payment of taxes due to fewer workers
There are a number of countries that have implemented pro-natalist policies including:
Page 24 of 25
France
Singapore - after 1987
Sweden Your notes
Russia
In France, past policies have included:
Discounts on public transport for families with three or more children
Increased paid maternity leave
Better mortgage deals
Tax allowances
Free childcare from 3 to school age
Cash incentives for mothers who stay at home to care for children
Subsidised holidays
The policies have led to one of the highest fertility rates in Europe
Measures that have been used elsewhere to encourage people to have larger families include:
Improved maternity and paternity leave/rights
Increased child benefits
Tax allowances for larger families which reduce tax payments
Baby bonus (Singapore)
Page 25 of 25

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Population

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Head to savemyexams.

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IGCSE Geography CIE Your notes

1.1 Population Dynamics

Overpopulation & Underpopulation

Optimum Theory of Population

How does the balance between population and resources differ

Case Study: Nigeria

Case Study: Canada

1.1.2 Population Change

Natural Population Change

Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model

World population growth rates

Infant mortality rate - when Cost of having children - in

Case Study: Niger

Fertility Rate in Niger

Impacts Your notes

Reducing population growth

Case Study: Japan

Japan's Population Structure

Low Birth Rate

1.1.3 Population Policies

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