In Capital-Letters: SURNAME: First name: Student #: Room: ……………………………….

……

.
MIE231F - PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS - Final Examination
Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto
December 2021, B. Benhabib

The examination is 150 minutes.

The examination comprises 12 multi-part, different-valued questions worth a total of 100 points. You may use any
type of calculator. You may use your official FACULTY aid sheet and the given tables, but nothing else.

You must answer all questions (including all their sub-parts) within spaces
allocated:
* You may NOT use the specific spaces allocated for specific questions (or
their sub-parts) for answering other questions (or their sub-parts).
* You may NOT use the backs of the pages for your answers.
Backs of pages will NOT be marked.

Do not unstaple this package

Q1: /5

Q2: /5

Q3: /10

Q4: /10

Q5: /10

Q6: /10

Q7: /10

Q8: /10

Q9: /5

Q10: /10

Q11: /10

Q12: /5

Total: /100
1/13 Good Luck!
In Capital-Letters: SURNAME: First name: Student #: Room: ……………………………….……

1. Define possibility versus probability for a random experiment, and for a deterministic experiment,
respectively.

Each entry (of the four below, (i) to (iv)) must be 10 words or less. (Penalty of minus 1 point for every word above
10 will be applied per entry).

MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK FOR FULL MARKS!

a) Random experiment: [3 Points]

(i) Possibility: The potential for an event to ace

An event can occur .

________________________________________________________________________________________

(ii) Probability: The likelyhood for an event to occur

.

b) Deterministic experiment: [2 Points]

(i) Possibility:

________________________________________________________________________________________

(ii) Probability:

2/13 Good Luck!

In Capital-Letters: SURNAME: First name: Student #: Room: ……………………………….……

2. Two fair dies are available – one is two-sided and the other is three-sided: The two-sided die’s faces are
labeled as (1, 3), and three-sided die’s faces are labeled as (2, 3, 4), respectively. The game at hand is the
rolling of both dies and reading the sum of the two dies’ outcomes (e.g., 1+4=5).

MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK FOR FULL MARKS!

c) Express the complete sample space. [1 Point]

----------------------------------------------

S={
3,415,6 7

d) Express the Event A whose outcomes have a value of less than 6. [1 Point]

A={
3,415
e) Express the Event B whose outcomes have a value of more than or equal to 4. [1 Point]

B={
4,516,73

f) A random trial is carried out. What is the probability of Event A having occurred, having been told that
Event B has already occurred? [2 Points]

PLAID
PITY EÉ É
Anis 4,5
It 3
Ef
Plank
pB ft ft ft I

Your answer: __________________________________

3/13 Good Luck!

In Capital-Letters: SURNAME: First name: Student #: Room: ……………………………….……

3. A 50 mV signal is input to a measurement instrument, which has a (plus) +2 mV systematic error, due to
improper calibration.

The electronic noise of this instrument (i.e., random error) has a (Normally-distributed) population mean of 0 mV
and standard deviation of 1 mV, respectively.
All errors are unknown to the user.
MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK FOR FULL MARKS!

What is the probability that a random measurement of the 50 mV input signal would be outside the ±5% range
of the input signal? [10 points]

measurement will be 2 off 5 of 50 is 2.5

Mx Our

II stiff rein

22.5 72.5
what is probability that noise is a

But since calibration is 2

the

Your answer: __________________________________

4/13 Good Luck!

In Capital-Letters: SURNAME: First name: Student #: Room: ……………………………….……

4. A company manufactures O-rings of diameter that have a Normal Distribution: µx = 25 mm and sx = 1 mm.
Their customers include NASA, Canadian Tire, and Active Surplus, who are supplied O-rings with the
following properties:

NASA: 25 ± 0.001 mm (all O-rings in this range)

Canadian Tire: 25 ± 0.1 mm (all O-rings in this range, but excluding those sold to NASA)
Active Surplus: Everything else (i.e., all O-rings, but, excluding those sold to NASA and Canadian Tire)

MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK FOR FULL MARKS!

Determine the respective percentages of O-rings sold to the three customers: NASA, Canadian Tire, and
Active Surplus, respectively. [10 points]

FEY
NASA:

9991 425.0017 1 9 1 26 to
Pk
gig
1 z 24.999 25 O.OO1IO.CO
Q

a Mx

Your answer: __________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________
Canadian Tire:

2 Ox
P 0 1 1109602 0.0796

Itala
24.9 25.1
2
24.9 EXE 5 1

29.9
25 0 q
0.46oz
7 96

7.96 06 51
7.96
Your answer: __________________________________
______________________________________________________________________

4
Active Surplus:

lool 7.691 92
Your answer: __________________________________

5/13 Good Luck!

In Capital-Letters: SURNAME: First name: Student #: Room: ……………………………….……

5. The following data was collected for 75 car tires – they represent time-to-first-failure. It is assumed that the
probability distribution for this case is a Weibull Distribution.

Life (units of ×105 km) 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7

Number of Tires 20 40 10 2 2 1

MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK FOR FULL MARKS!

Describe a step-by-step algorithm (#1 to 4), in total of 30 words or less, to determine the (approximate)
distribution statistics [µx and sx]. (Penalty of minus 1 point for every word above 30 will be applied). [10 points]

1)
Convert Number of tire values to proportions

2)
Calculate
by summing proportions multiplied by
mean

their respective time to first failure values

3)
o bei ne s bid
I
4)
of
6/13 Good Luck!
In Capital-Letters: SURNAME: First name: Student #: Room: ……………………………….……

6. A manufacturer claims that its tires’ lifetime, X, is best approximated with a Weibull Distribution: a = 0.001
and b = 2 –– all units of ×105 km.

In order to verify the claim (i.e., a = 0.001 and b = 2), a sample of 5 tires are tested, of which (exactly) 4
survive beyond x* = 5 –– all units of ×105 km.

MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK FOR FULL MARKS!

a) What is the probability of a tire surviving beyond x* = 5? (All units of ×105 km.) [5 points]

ox's
FK P x 57 1 the
Kya
cooks
te

Your answer: __________________________________

b) Assuming that P(Tire Life > 5) = 0.90, regardless of your answer in Part (a), verify the claim above for a
comfort level of 5%? (All units of ×105 km.) [5 points]

Your answer: ________________________________________________________________________________

7/13 Good Luck!

In Capital-Letters: SURNAME: First name: Student #: Room: ……………………………….……

7. A bottle-filling machine dial is to be calibrated. The dial has two settings: S and L. It is assumed that there
exists no relationship between the settings. The engineer-in-charge fills 10 bottles at each setting,
respectively, and measures the volume of each with a perfect instrument (i.e., no errors). The following data is
collected.

Sample Mean Sample Standard Deviation

S 4 1
L 11 2
MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK FOR FULL MARKS!
Estimate the confidence interval for each dial setting (i.e., for the population mean) for confidence levels of
90%, as well as 0%, respectively. [10 points]

S: he so t distribution CL l d 0.9070 0 i
gag
Kia 1 9
It f too f Entre E It tf toes f
Enron E Y 1 833
4 1 833

3.42 EM true 4.58

3ÉÉÉ
air e
at ol oh I entree
e 4.5g
Your answer for 90%: __________________________________

tix 4
Your answer for 0%: _________________________________

_________________________________________________________________________________

L: It f to as f Em true E I t l taos fu n 9
11 1.833 Eo E M true Ell 1.833
9 841 E M true E 12.159

at ol CL It ultra 11

9.841
EM x 112.159
Your answer for 90%: __________________________________

by 11
Your answer for 0%: _________________________________

8/13 Good Luck!

In Capital-Letters: SURNAME: First name: Student #: Room: ……………………………….……

8. Two train-seat manufacturers, A and B, compete for a contract with Via-MIE. You are asked to select the
manufacturer with the longer (mean) seat life and, thus, compare (Normally-distributed) population-mean
estimates of seat life. Each manufacturer provides you with a sample and the data below.
The sample size n is the same for companies.

Sample Mean Sample Standard Deviation

Manufacturer A 5.1 1
Manufacturer B 5.2 0.1

MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK FOR FULL MARKS!

Determine the smallest possible sample size, n, that both manufacturers have provided you with, for a
confidence level of at least 99% in the determination of which company is better. [10 points]

CL 994 1 0 0 0 01 0.005
9
Tat CI B is better w o k Cl
nah h

Ia tf ZE E It f ZE SI Zo cos 2.575

2 575
5 I t
t 5.2 2 575
4
2.575 f 2.575
fi 5 2 5 I
2.575 0.1

FI 28.325
n 802 3

in

Your answer: __________________________________

9/13 Good Luck!

In Capital-Letters: SURNAME: First name: Student #: Room: ……………………………….……

9. Two bus-seat manufacturers, A and B, compete for a contract with Via-ECE. You are asked to select the
manufacturer with the smaller variance and, thus, compare population-variance estimates of seat life. Each
manufacturer provides you with a sample and the data below. Assume Normally-distributed variable.

Sample Size Sample Mean Sample Standard Deviation

Manufacturer A 3 5 1
Manufacturer B 3 25 1

MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK FOR FULL MARKS!

Determine the largest confidence level with which you can claim one company is better than the other.
[5 points]

Assuming A is better than B

j
X 3 X crest
43 11 1
X B VE A
1 2 I E E a
p
CL L O H
É

Your answer: __________________________________

10/13 Good Luck!

In Capital-Letters: SURNAME: First name: Student #: Room: ……………………………….……

10. Calibration of a bottle-filling machine yields a least-squares-fitted line of y = 500x. Sample size used for the
calibration was 3, !̅ = 1, s = 1, and Sxx = 1.

MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK FOR FULL MARKS!

a) For input x = 1, determine the 95% confidence interval for the true population mean value, using the above
regression line. [5 points]
V 2
0.95 1 0 0 0.05
58 0.025 y
500 n 3

g tgsfttTgIemy
sc
iEy.tt sfte.EE
500 4.30311
FHI shy 1500 4.303 1
fo
503.04 1
496.9644

Your answer: ___________________________________________

b) For input x = 2, determine the 100% confidence interval for the true population mean value, using the
above regression line. [2 points]

For loot CL O Entrues max volume

Your answer: ________________________________________

c) For input x = 3, determine the 0% confidence interval for the true population mean value, using the above
regression line. [3 points]

500137 1500
Fa O'lo Lt y My
Your answer: ________________________________________

11/13 Good Luck!

In Capital-Letters: SURNAME: First name: Student #: Room: ……………………………….……

11. A Geometric Distribution is defined as follows: If an infinite size population has a success proportion p and
a failure proportion q = 1- p, then, the probability distribution of the random variable X, which defines the
number of the trial (e.g., 1st, or 5th, or 17th) that results in the first success (i.e., all previous attempts resulted in
failure), is given by:

g(x;p) = pqx-1, x = 1, 2, 3, ….

For a population of components (fabricated on the same machine), where only 5% meet engineering
specifications (i.e., success), please answer the following questions.
MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK FOR FULL MARKS!
a) Determine the individual probabilities of x = 1, 2, 3, and 4. [5 points]

P x 1 10.05 0.9550 0.05

2 0 95 0.0475
P x 0 05
IO 04513
P X 3 10.05 0.95
0.05 0.9513 0 04287
P X 4

b) Draw the above geometric probability function and the cumulative geometric probability function (side by
side) for x = 1, 2, 3, and 4. Do not need to be to-scale. [5 points]

P XE 1 P A1 0.05
0.05 0.0975
P XE2 P x2 PCA1 0.0475 0.14263
0.04513 O 0975
PIX 3I PIXEL
pp I I P x 4 P X E3 0,04287 0 17263 0 1855

0.1855 o

0.143 no

I ii
i
12/13 Good Luck!
In Capital-Letters: SURNAME: First name: Student #: Room: ……………………………….……

12. Guess your own grade, X, for this final exam, and calculate its probability of being within ∓2 points of your
real (to be) earned grade, including this question, #10. Note: X is a discrete and integer variable. [5 points]

MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK FOR FULL MARKS!

Please state your assumptions clearly.

Guessed X = GO .
P 58 EXE 62

P X E 62 P X 57
P G1 P 60 P 59 P 58
PIG 2

t
to t
t t tot th E
S O to and including 100

Your answer: __________________________________

HAPPY NEW
YEAR!
13/13 Good Luck!