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CHAPTER-THREE
3.1Aggregate Demand and Aggregate supply with more than two sectors
Aggregate demand and aggregate supply are used in macroeconomics in order to see how the
general price level, the total output level, and employment level are determined which have
direct impact on national income.
Aggregate demand: -
It shows the total quantity of goods and services which will and able to purchase
at each possible price level in a given period of time, usually one year. The value
of aggregate demand in any year will depend on decisions taken by:
Households(C)
Firms (I)
Government(G)
Buyers in the oversees (international
trade)(NX)
While market demand relates a price of a given good to its consumption level,
aggregate demand relates the general price level to total desired sending on
national outputs.
In aggregate demand when income changes, it is necessary to know how this
affects real income which intern has effect on national output. When General
Price level changes it affects the money national income and will affect money
expenditures.
Aggregate Demand:-
Curve slopes Downward to the Right
Have negative relation with general price level when
other things remain unchanged
Highly influenced by the price level or price index.
There are two main reasons why aggregate demand curve slopes down ward from left to right:-
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erodes the real value of such assets so as the price level rises
economic agents will cut back on their expenditures
2) The interest Rate Effect
Assuming that the government money supply is fixed, when the
general price level increases:
Demand for money increases for more
expenditure.
To stay or get more satisfaction people
borrow money from creditors.
Interest rate increases since there is high
demand for money and fixed government
money supply.
Since investment and interest rate have
inverse relations this increases the cost of
production for firms and in turn it had
increases the price of outputs.
If the price increases sustainably it may
cause inflation which led the consumer not
to buy durable consumer goods
Therefore the aggregate demand has a curve rather than a straight line (market demand. This
because that there will be a big change in aggregate demand when there is a little change on
the general price level. Aggregate demand merely related to GDP measured through
expenditure method.
AD
Output, Y
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If expectation is Optimistic about the future Aggregate Demand increases and vice versa
D) Population income: - positively for some goods and negatively for others goods
E) Demographic change: - as population increases aggregate demand also increases
F) Foreign output (economic conditions): -one good of a given country needed more by
others exports will increases this in turn increases the aggregate demand.
G) Asset value: - as the asset value increases, population become more wealthier this will
increase the aggregate demand
H) Real interest rate: - inversely related to aggregate demand
I) The quantity of money in circulation: - positively related to the aggregate demand
Except the price level all determinates shifts the aggregate demand curve either to the right
or to the left.
Aggregate Supply: -
It indicates the total quantities of all goods and services which will and
able to supply at different price (each price) level usually one year. it has
a positive relation with the price level.
Price level is one aggregate supply determinant in both short and long run period. Short run
determinant of aggregate supply are: -
Long run determinants of aggregate supply are a change quantity and/or quality of factors of
production.
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3.2 The three aggregate supply curves and the two disputes of economists on
the slope of aggregate supply curve
P
a) p
Y Y
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Bullionism led countries to attempt to secure an excess of exports over imports of Gold through
export subsidies, import duties and creating market through colonies. State action was
believed to be necessary to cause the developing capitalist system to further the interest of the
state.
Unlike these mercantilists viewed money as a spur to economic activity. In the short run
mercantilists argued that an increase in quantity of money would led to an increase in demand
for commodities and would stimulate production and employment. One role for the state
action in mercantilists view was to insure that markets exists for all goods produced. I.e.
consumption, both foreign and domestic must be encouraged to the extent that production
advanced. As against this J.S.MILL said once “consumption never needs encouragement.”
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For classiclas:
Free market mechanism would work to provide market for all goods that were
produced.
The legislator, therefore, need not give himself any concern about
consumption.
The production of a given quantity of output will generate sufficient demand
for that output.
Hence they gave a little explicit to factors that determine the overall demand
i.e. aggregate demand.
Thus, the two features of the classical analysis arose as part of the attack on mercantilism:
The labor demand curve is downward sloping. The higher real wage (w/p) the lower level of
labor input demanded by the firms and vice versa.
w
ND= f ( ) -----------------------------------------------labor demand equation
p
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The labor supply curve is upward sloping. The higher real wage (w/p) the higher level of labor supplied
by the individuals and vice versa.
w
NS= g ( ) -----------------------------------------------supply demand equation
p
At equilibrium ND=NS, this equilibrium determines output, employment and real wage which
are endogenous in the model.
W/p NS
W/p*
ND
N* N
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W/p NS3 P
W3/p3 NS1
W/p*
W1/p1 ND3
NS* ND*
ND1
N Y
From Fig 5 as we can see at higher prices like p3 given money wage constant labor supply will
decrease because at higher price given money wage corresponds to lower real wage and will
shift labor supply upward to the left (ND3) and for that given money wage and increased price
level (p3) more labor is demanded at a higher price level because that money wages
corresponds to lower real money wage for firms hence labor demand curve shifts up to the
right (ND3). Then the money wage increase up to W3 until the labor market come to the
equilibrium state. Hence aggregate supply curve is vertical and this vertical aggregate supply
curve illustrates the supply determined nature of output in classical model.
All demand side factors have no role in determining output and employment. Like: -
Quantity of money
Level of government spending
Level of investment demand by business sector
In general
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By 1930’s our world face great economic depression. The economy was
unable to adjust or came at full employment level.
John Maynard Keynes: -
An English economist during this 1930’s.
Developed a theory to explain that equilibrium is
not necessary established at full employment.
Believed that an economy can become locked in
macroeconomic equilibrium with high cyclical
unemployment.
Said classical self correction mechanism will not
work in high cyclical unemployment.
According to this school of thought: -
Wages and price are inflexible down ward at least
in the short run.
Wages, rents and other production costs are set
by contracts in the short run and cannot be
reduced until the contract is expired sometime in
the future.
Government role is important to influence
aggregate demand to ensure full employment.
The key to Keynes analysis was the role of
aggregate demand
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P AS
P* Ad2
Ad1
Q1 Q2 Q
Intermediate Range
They combined classical and Keynesian thought to form the present AS curve.
AS
P classical range
Intermediate range
Keynesian
Eq Q
Eq-indicates the maximum output the economy can produce (full employment output level).
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Market equilibrium and aggregate demand and aggregate supply equilibrium reached through
the same method. Microeconomic equilibrium find through the interaction of market demand
market supply. Similarly macroeconomic equilibrium find through the interaction of aggregate
demand and aggregate supply. The interaction of aggregate demand and aggregate supply
determines: -
The output
The general price level and employment level in the economy.
Of all the economic fluctuations in world history, the one that stands out as particularly large,
painful, and intellectually significant is the Great Depression of the 1930s. During this time
countries experienced massive unemployment and greatly reduced incomes.
This devastating episode caused many economists to question the validity of classical economic
theory. According to that theory, national income depends on factor supplies and the available
technology, neither of which changed substantially from 1929 to 1933. In 1936 the British
economist John Maynard Keynes revolutionized economics with his book The General Theory of
Employment, Interest, and Money.
Keynes proposed that low aggregate demand is responsible for the low income and high
unemployment that characterize economic downturns. He criticized classical theory for assuming
that aggregate supply alone—capital, labor, and technology—determines national income.
Unlike to this output also depends on the demand for goods and services. Demand, in turn, is
influenced by monetary policy, fiscal policy, and various other factors.
The Keynesian cross: is a model of Keynes designed to explain the relationship between
expenditure and output. Accordingly there are two types of expenditure:
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Actual expenditure: it is the amount households, firms, and the government spends on
goods and services which is equal with the GDP.
Planned expenditure: it is the amount households, firms, and the government would like
to spend on goods and services.
In closed economy, since net exports are zero, we write planned expenditure E as the sum of
consumption C, planned investment I, and government purchases G:
E=C+ I +G
To this equation, we add the consumption function
C=C (Y −T )
This equation states that consumption depends on disposable income (Y −T), which is total
income Y minus taxes T.
To keep things simple, for now we take planned investment as exogenously fixed:
I =I .
And assume that fiscal policy—the level of government purchases and taxes—is fixed:
G=G ,
T =T
Combining these five equations, we obtain
E=C(Y −T )+ I +G .
This equation shows that planned expenditure is a function of income Y, the level of planned
investment I , and the fiscal policy variables G andT .
Planned Expenditure as a function of Income
Planed Expenditure, E
E=C(Y −T )+ I +G
MPC
1
Income, output, Y
Planned expenditure depends on income because higher income leads to higher consumption,
which is part of planned expenditure. The slope of this planned-expenditure function is the
marginal propensity to consume, MPC.
At equilibrium of the economy:
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Planed Expenditure
A E=C+ I +G
0
45 Y
Equilibrium Income
The equilibrium in the Keynesian cross is at point A, where income (actual expenditure) equals
planned expenditure.
The Adjustment to Equilibrium in the Keynesian Cross: If firms were producing at level Y1,
then planned expenditure E1 would fall short of production and firms would accumulate
inventories (a). This inventory accumulation would induce firms to reduce production. Similarly,
if firms were producing at level Y2, then planned expenditure E2 would exceed production, and
firms would run down their inventories (b). This fall in inventories would induce firms to raise
production. In both cases, the firms’ decisions drive the economy toward equilibrium.
Expenditure, E Actual Expenditure
Y1
a Planed Expenditure
E1 A
E2 b
0
Y2 45
Y1 Equilibrium Income Y2 Y
In summary, the Keynesian cross shows how income Y is determined for given levels of planned
investment I and fiscal policy G and T. We can use this model to show how income changes
when one of these exogenous variables changes.
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∆Y (1) ∆ G
E1=Y1 A
0
45 (2)
An increase in government purchases of ∆ G raises planned expenditure by that amount for any
given level of income (1). The equilibrium moves from point A to point B, and income rises
from Y1 to Y2. Note that the increase in income ∆ Y (2) exceeds the increase in government
purchases∆ G . Thus, fiscal policy has a multiplied effect on income.
∆Y MPC × ∆ T (1)
E1=Y1 A
(2)
Y1=E1 Y2=E2
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A decrease in taxes of ∆ T raises planned expenditure by MPC × ∆ T for any given level of
income. The equilibrium moves from point A to point B, and income rises from Y1 to Y2. Again,
fiscal policy has a multiplied effect on income.
Just as an increase in government purchases has a multiplied effect on income, so does a decrease in
taxes.
In this section:
We explain the role of money and interest rate in the Keynesian
system
We construct a model that shows how interest rate and income are
jointly determined
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R0
R1
I0 i1 I
I E0= C+I0+G0
Y0 Y1 Y
A decrease in interest rate increases the investment from I0I1 and this shifts the aggregate
expenditure up.and y0 moves y1
I. Money
II. Non money assets ( bonds)
Money
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Bonds
Liquidity is the property for an asset that measures the ease for that the asset can be turned in
to currency without lose of value.
Keynes chose the second one to emphasis the relationship between interest rate and money.
This is because equilibrium in one market implies equilibrium in the other. Hence equilibrium
interest rate determined by factors affecting;
R Ms
R0
Md
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Transaction Demand
Precautionary demand
Money also hold for the case of unexpected expenditures such as medical
or repair bills
Keynes believed that the amount held for this purpose depends positively
on income.
Keynes asked why an individual would hold any money above the two demands earlier
discussed. He answered this by speculative demand for money.
Speculative demand
People hold money way beyond the two motives even when bonds pays
interest and money does not.
As Keynes stated such additional demand for money exists because of
Uncertainty about future interest rates
The inverse relation between change in
interest rate and the price of bond.
For example assume that you bought a perpetual bond at a price of $ 1000 at interest rate of
5
5% ( =0.05=5 % ¿. The bond entitled you payment of $50 per year. Now if
100
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Table1
A decline in interest rate results in capital gain on previously existing bonds and vice versa. At
high interest rate the expected return on bonds will be negative, and money will be the
preferred asset.
Money held in an anticipation of a fall in bond price (a rise in interest rate) is Keynes
speculative demand for money. Hence at a lower interest rate people expect the interest rate
tends to raise (a fall in bond price) in the future hence speculative demand for money will
increase. Therefore there is an inverse relationship between the speculative demand for money
and the interest rate (fig 11). At a very lower and lower interest rate the graph for speculative
demand for money flatten out. Keynes termed this as liquidity trap (a situation in which at very
lower and lower interest rate where the speculative demand for money becomes nearly
horizontal)(fig 12).
R R
Md Md
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Md=l( y ,r )
A rise in income increases the money demand and expectation of a rise in interest rate
decreases the money demand.
Md=C 0+C1Y-C2r where C1>0(increase money demand due to “Y” and C2>0(decline in money
demand due to “r”)
First we identify combination of income and interest rate that equilibrate the money
market
Second we identify combination of income and interest rate that equilibrate the
commodity market
Third we will combine the two markets.
Money demand in the Keynesian model: Md= L(y,r)↔ Md = C0+C1y-C2r and for
exogenously determined money supply (Ms ), at equilibrium Ms= Md= C0+C1y-C2r
Fig 13 below shows an increase in income (Y0-Y1) increases the money demand at a
given interest rate due to transaction demand for money is positively related with
income. To restore the increased money demand to the fixed money supply, it requires
the interest rate to rise (ro-r1).
The higher the interest rate the lower speculative demand for money. Hence the
interest rate must rise until the decline in money demand just equal to the initial income
induced increase in the transaction demand for money.
The LM curve which shows combination of income and interest rate slopes upward. At
higher level of income, equilibrium in money market occurs at higher level of interest
rate.
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R2 C r2 C
R1 B r1 B
R0 A Md (Y2) r0 A
Md (Y1)
Md (Y0) M y
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r2
r1
← Md
r r LM2
R2 Ms LM1
↗ ↖
R1 Md2
Md1 M Y
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Or
Now our task is to find the combination of interest rate and income that equates saving and
investment (fig 16 below).
Investment Saving
A. R B. S S(Y)
R2 S2
R1 S1
R0 I(r) S0
I y
I2 I1 I0 Y2 Y1 Y0
c) The IS schedule
R2 C
R1 B
R0 A
Y2 y1 y0
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Illustration of fig 16
At interest rate R0, R1, R2 investment level will be I0, I1, and I3 in part a. to generate
saving savings S0, S1, and S2 equals to the level of investment, and income must be at Y0, Y1
and Y2 respectively. Therefore interest rate income combination (R0, Y0), (R1, Y1) and (R2, Y2)
are points along the IS curve in part C. Hence IS is downward slopping
Hence here IS will be steep if inertest elasticity of investment is low and IS will be flatter if
interest elasticity of investment is high.
I ( R )+G=S ( Y −T ) +T …………..@
Investment plus government spending: fig 17
Since Y=C+I+G
Actual
Planned 2
G Planned 1 IS2
IS1
Y1 Y2 Y1 Y2
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The intersection of the IS and LM curves represents simultaneous equilibrium in the market for
goods and services and in the market for real money balances for given values of government
spending, taxes, the money supply, and the price level.
Note: A change in either fiscal or monetary policy leads to changes in equilibrium output and
equilibrium interest rate.
Fiscal policy: an increase in G or a reduction in T shifts the IS curve out, hence both equilibrium
output and equilibrium interest rate increases.
Monetary policy: an increase in money supply shifts the LM curve out. Hence it will increase
output but it will decrease equilibrium interest rate.
Interaction of Fiscal and Monetary policies:
What would happen to equilibrium when there is an increase in tax?
a. If the government keeps money supply constant?
LM curve stay the same IS curve shift down hence equilibrium r and Y decrease.
b. If the government wants to keep interest rate constant?
The government should decrease money supply. This shifts both the IS and LM curve
inward. Hence it greatly reduces Y greatly as compared to A.
c. If the government holds the income level constant?
Here the government should increase the money supply, the LM curve shifts out and the
IS curve shifts down. This will lead to a reduction in the equilibrium interest rate
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