Problem Solving in Operation Management

Patricia Esperanza Balderas-Cañas
Gabriel de las Nieves Sánchez-Guerrero Editors
Problem
Solving In
Operation
Management
Problem Solving In Operation Management
Gabriel de las Nieves Sánchez-Guerrero
Editors
Problem Solving
In Operation Management
Editors
Patricia Esperanza Balderas-Cañas Gabriel de las Nieves Sánchez-Guerrero
Faculty of Engineering Faculty of Engineering
National Autonomous University of Mexico National Autonomous University of Mexico
Mexico City, Mexico Mexico City, Mexico
ISBN 978-3-030-50088-7 ISBN 978-3-030-50089-4 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-50089-4
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of
the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,
broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information
storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology
now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant
protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book
are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the
editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any
errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional
claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Prologue
Currently, Systems Thinking is a holistic, transdisciplinary, dynamic, and construc-

tivist approach that allows explaining realities through their understanding and
knowledge, considering the context and purpose of the systems that give it meaning,
structures and functions that make it up, and processes, procedures, and actors that
involved create a complex dynamic.
Since its inception, the metadiscipline of Systems Thinking has linked thought
and action, and has traveled between the fields of scientific research and problem
solving. It is through plural participation that its action is focused primarily on com-
plex systems, either from the analysis of problematic situations, planning, design,
optimization and even implementation.
The book shows a brief look at the potential of Systems Thinking in Problem
Solving for intervention, management, and planning in organizations. It presents
eight research works that are integrated in two parts: methodologies and techniques.
The contributions with a methodological orientation are shown from the first to the
fifth chapter of the book, and from the sixth to the eighth chapter, the contributions
are directed towards the techniques.
It is increasingly common to find the use of Systems Thinking in the solution of
problems of private, governmental, and social sector organizations. Systems
Thinking is a conceptual framework that allows understanding reality and with it
addressing the problems of organizations making use of mathematics, dynamic sys-
tems, optimization methods, planning, economics, social sciences, and behavior
sciences among others. It combines theory and practice, quantitative and qualitative
aspects, both necessary and complementary worlds for the solution of problems.
The country needs to plan its future. The lack of planning in our country for solution
of problems has led us to react more than to prevent or design our future. For this rea-
son, faced with the complexity we find the problems once we have them, although we
must accept that more and more we are looking for an objective image of the country
we want. Perhaps if we had had this image in the past, we would not have lost half of
our territory or we would not have made the same mistakes year after year. Although
the General Law of Planning of the Republic has been enacted since 1930, it was not
until 1980 that the first Global Development Plan 1980–1982 was drawn up. We can
say that a culture of planning in the country is beginning to be developed.
v
vi Prologue
In order to act and transform reality, it is also necessary to have a set of methods
and techniques for solving problems, and in this sense also in the country there has
been a technical acculturation in the public, private, and social sectors. Mathematics
is increasingly used. It is no longer seen as that cold, abstract part full of symbols.
Today mathematics is immersed in planning, optimization methods, and simulation
having an innumerable set of applications.
In tune with the above, the book is emblematic. In its first part, Chaps. 1, 2, 3, 4,
and 5, it presents a series of chapters aimed at developing theoretical-methodological
aspects. The second part, Chaps. 6, 7, and 8, focuses on the use and development of
models at the technical level, which allow us to approach the knowledge of reality
and the solution of specific problems.
In order to improve the functioning and management of the organizations, the
book proposes in its first chapter the theoretical basis for the diagnosis of organiza-
tions that is constructed from the point of view of the complexity sciences, the
conceptual principles for the elaboration of a diagnosis and a procedure to carry it
out, from the point of view of the sciences of complexity, and new social theories.
A relevant stage in this procedure is the dynamic analysis of the organization. In this
stage, various elements that define its complexity are identified, such as its attrac-
tors, branches, chaotic states, strange attractors, situations on the edge of chaos, and
its process or auto organization attempts, which can serve as the basis for building
models of computational simulation.
Starting out with the theoretical support of systems thinking, the methodological
basis of interactive planning and the necessary and complementary use of quantita-
tive and qualitative techniques, the second chapter offers a participative process for
building trend scenarios. Such process is comprised of five phases: (1) definition of
the system and explanation of current situation, (2) forecasts integration, (3) incor-
poration of the predictions, (4) future image creation, and (5) description of the
connection between the visualized present and future. Using this process, the case
study Valle de Toluca Aquifer Scenario by 2020 is presented.
Chapter 3 analyzes consultancy as a systemic intervention process. Three explana-
tion lines are defined about the ineffectiveness of such activity: (a) the conditioning of
consultancy to client’s preferences, (b) the conditioning of consultancy to the consul-
tant’s practices and knowledge, and (c) the dominating factors in the consultancy sce-
nario which may be certain techniques, practices, tools, methods, and methodologies
at time of implementation. Furthermore, on the basis of Midgley’s systemic interven-
tion notion, systemic theoretical methodological elements are identified and found in
the consultancy process, which establish favorable conditions to the process.
The fourth chapter analyzes the innovation process, seeking to maintain or
achieve a competitive advantage in the organization. The author establishes that the
innovation process that occurs in organizations has no lineal pathway nor is mani-
fested in quiet organizational conditions. It is postulated that three ruptures occur
during the process: the rupture of use—associated to a need of the selected market,
the technological rupture—associated to the technological requirements, and the
economic rupture—associated to the viable strategic price. The process focuses on
defining at least three technical objects to be assessed (which can be products, pro-
cesses, procedures, services, or methods). The objects are evaluated using different
tools, which value its potential in all three mentioned ruptures.
Prologue vii
Part one of the book concludes with Chap. 5, to show the application of digraphs
in the analysis of mathematical knowledge representation systems in the field of
secondary education. The methodology is presented and discussed to analyze, under
a systemic approach, the visual reasoning procedures that are given with the use of
mathematical representations in the learning of differential calculus topics, in the
upper intermediate level. The methodology helps in knowing how the one who
learns acquires and utilizes some mathematical representation systems and how he/
she organizes them to produce acceptable answers in the school setting. The sys-
tems are modeled using digraphs, and through an experience with high school stu-
dents, the robustness of the proposed methodology is shown.
In the second part of the book, the sixth chapter develops a modeling process which
allows for park location out of the selection of green areas in an urban area. The pro-
cess begins with the structuring of the problem and ends with the use of a procedure
that interacts between a Geographical Information System (GIS) and a discrete loca-
tion multi-objective optimization model. The incorporation of GIS facilitated the
visual representation of map information as well as data that the zones have. Also, a
study case carried out in Delegación Cuauhtémoc of Mexico City is described.
The seventh chapter proposes a model for locating bi-level services using a drug
distribution network in the State of Mexico, which has been originally presented as
one with a sole objective. The strategy to solve multi-objective problems has been
useful in situations where there is more than one objective, which in many cases
may contradict themselves, but this approach does not consider the possible inter-
dependency among them, a condition that takes multilevel programming into
account. The proposed model was applied to a distribution of medication networks
in the State of Mexico, for which it offers the best locations for warehouses.
Finally, the book concludes with the eighth chapter that offers an alternative for
the determination of the demand in the control of inventories using fuzzy sets. It
deals with the need that many Mexican enterprises have of having an alternative to
determine the demand in inventory control, such being considered an additional or
unnecessary cost, it’s carried out with the basis of experience and subjective judg-
ments by the administration. To take advantage of this need, the use of fuzzy sets
was used to determine the demand and its behavior in inventories control for the
MRP models and EOQ. Considering the demand as a fuzzy number, its calculation
is executed under uncertainty conditions, and in this way, it incorporates the subjec-
tive knowledge and the administrative experience for its determination.
Finally, the thought of systems in the solution of problems, from the methods and
techniques of optimization, planning, and simulation, will have an increasing devel-
opment in the measure that they are directed to obtain the best possible result, and
in this way raise the quality of life of society. These tools will be very powerful in
the twenty-first century, and this book shows it.
Mexico City, Mexico Manuel Ordorica Mellado

viii Prologue
WATER
SCENARIO
BUILDING
TREND
SCENARIOS
Consulting
process
CONSULTING
CHAP 3
mental
framework
INTERVENTION
VISUAL
THINKING
SCHOOL
LEARNING
MATH
REPRESENTATIONS
BI-LEVEL NETWORKS
PROGRAMMING
CHAP 7
DISTRIBUTION
PROBLEM
SOLVING
FUZZY
OPTIMIZATION
INVENTORY
ORGANIZATIONS PLANNING AND FUZZY
DEMAND
FUZZY
OPTIMIZA
MRP
FUZZY
THINKING OF APPLIED
SYSTEMS
EOQ
FUZZY
COMPLEXITY
DIAGNOSIS
DYNAMICS
DIFFERENTIATION
INNOVATION
MANAGEMENT PROCESS
CHAP 4
RUPTURES
MODELING
MULTI- PROCESS
CRITERIA
LOCATION LOCALIZATION
Structure of Part I
Introduction
This book is about problem solving in management of systems engineering cases.

The content is presented in two parts, one for methodologies and the second for
techniques. In the first chapter, a methodology for the diagnosis of the organization
dynamics is discussed from the point of view of the Complexity Approach in order
to improve and solve problems related with its operation and management.
The author of the second chapter reasons about a process for building trend in
planning scenarios for problem solving in public and private organizations by five
phases: (1) system definition and explanation of the current situation, (2) integration
of forecasts, (3) integration of the predictions, (4) the construction of the future
image, and (5) a description of the connection between the present and the future.
The third chapter is dedicated to explaining the organizational consulting inef-
fectiveness where three reasons are presented. Two of those reasons are associated
to the actors involved in the consulting process; the third reason is associated to the
intervention process in problem solving.
In the fourth chapter, the objective of the author is identify the technological,
economic, and usage ruptures, for the purpose of showing their importance in the
stabilization of a process, aimed at reaching a transformation, named the innovation
process. In problem solving, the innovation will be considered as “the introduction
of a new or significantly improved product or process of a new marketing or organi-
zational method in the company’s internal practices or external relations.”
The author of the fifth chapter presents and discusses a methodology to analyze,
under a systemic approach, the visual reasoning processes given with the use of
mathematical representations when learning Differential Calculus at a high school
level. Her interest knows how those who learn, acquire, and use some of the systems
of mathematical representation organize them to produce acceptable responses in
the school environment.
ix
Contents
Part I Methodologies
1 Theoretical-Methodological Basis
for Complex Organization Diagnosis �� 3
Felipe de Jesús Lara-Rosano
1.1 The Dynamic Diagnostic of a Complex Organization�� 3
1.2 Organizations as a Complex System�� 4
1.3 Analysis of Complex Organization�� 6
1.3.1 Analysis of Complex Organization Dynamics�� 6
1.4 Diagnostic of Complex Organizational Dynamics �� 11
1.5 Conclusions�� 15
References and Bibliography�� 15
2 Methodology for Building Trend Scenarios�� 17
2.1 Background �� 17
2.1.1 Scenarios in Interactive Planning�� 18
2.1.2 Trend Scenarios�� 21
2.2 Proposed Procedure�� 26
2.2.1 System Analysis and Current Situation Explanation�� 27
2.2.2 Forecasts Integration �� 28
2.2.3 Predictions Integration�� 29
2.2.4 Construction of Future Image �� 29
2.2.5 Connection Between Present and Future:
Scenario Writing �� 29
References�� 43
3 Consulting as a Systemic Intervention Process �� 47
Benito Sánchez-Lara and Oscar Everardo Flores-Choperena
3.1 Introduction�� 47
3.2 Consultancy Problems�� 48
xi
xii Contents
3.3 Consulting Process�� 50

3.3.1 Kubr’s Consulting Process�� 51
3.3.2 Morfín’s Consulting Process�� 51
3.3.3 Block’s Consulting Process�� 52
3.3.4 Systems Method of Ochoa-Rosso�� 52
3.3.5 Summarizing the Consulting Processes�� 53
3.4 Systemic Intervention �� 54
3.4.1 Consultancy as a Systemic Intervention �� 54
3.4.2 Critical Thinking in Consultancy�� 55
3.4.3 Systemic Intervention Conditions
in Consulting Practice �� 60
References�� 63
4 The Role of Technological, Economic, and Usage
Ruptures in the Innovation Process�� 65
Cozumel A. Monroy-León
4.1 The Context of Innovation�� 65
4.2 Problem to Be Addressed�� 69
4.3 Innovative Process�� 71
References�� 78
5 Digraphs in the Analysis of Systems’ Representation
of Mathematical Knowledge �� 81
5.1 Representation of Mathematical Knowledge�� 81
5.2 Visual Reasoning�� 82
5.3 Representation Systems of Mathematical Knowledge
and Visual Reasoning�� 84
5.3.1 Visual Reasoning and Visualization�� 86
5.4 Analysis of Systems of Representation of Math Knowledge �� 89
5.4.1 Categories �� 91
5.5.1 Pedagogic Implications and Recommendations �� 96
Annex 1: Extract of the Teaching Guide�� 97
Path of Water Flow Coming Out from a Hose �� 97
Annex 2�� 98
Part II Techniques
6 Decision-Making with Multicriteria Optimization
and GIS for Park Locations�� 105
Mayra Elizondo-Cortés and Adela Jiménez-Montero
6.1 The Problem of Park Locations in Mexico City �� 105
Contents xiii
6.2 Modeling Process for Park Locations �� 106

6.3 Structuring the Problem of Park Location
and Mathematic Modeling Methodology�� 107
6.4 Application for Delegación Cuauthémoc in Mexico City�� 112
References�� 115
7 A Service Location Model in a Bi-level Structure�� 117
Zaida E. Alarcón-Bernal and Ricardo Aceves-García
7.2 Bi-level Programming Models�� 118
7.3 Model Approach�� 119
7.3.1 P-Median Location Model�� 119
7.3.2 General Model�� 119
7.3.3 Formulation�� 120
7.3.4 Bi-level Programming Problems�� 121
7.3.5 Definitions�� 121
7.3.6 Discrete Bi-level Problem�� 122
7.4 Formulation of Bi-level Search Services Model�� 123
7.4.1 General Model, Problem (4) �� 123
7.4.2 Solution Method �� 125
7.4.3 Algorithm�� 125
7.5 Model Application�� 127
8 Determining the Demand in Inventory Policies
for Mexican Companies Using Fuzzy Sets�� 135
Ricardo Aceves-García and Zaida E. Alarcón-Bernal
8.1.1 Techniques Known and Used for Controlling
Inventories in Mexico �� 136
8.1.2 Data from Inventory Records, Problems
with Uncertainty and EOQ and MRP Models�� 137
8.2 Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Model
with Fuzzy Demand, Without Production or Deficit�� 139
8.2.1 Analysis of Results �� 146
8.3 MRP Model Considering the Demand of a Fuzzy Number�� 147
8.3.1 Demand as a Fuzzy Number �� 154
References�� 156
Index�� 159
About the Authors
Ricardo Aceves-García studied Chemical Engineering at the Autonomous

University of Puebla, Mexico, and obtained a master’s in sciences and a PhD in
Operational Research from the National Autonomous University of Mexico
(UNAM). He has been working in various projects in the field of Transportation,
Operational Research, and Optimization for both public and private organizations.
At present, he is a Full-Time Professor and Researcher at the Engineering Graduated
School of the UNAM, and his main lines of research are process optimization, net-
work transportation, location services, and services operations.
Zaida E. Alarcón-Bernal obtained a doctoral degree in Engineering in the area of

operations research, a master’s degree in Engineering (Hons.), and a degree in
Actuarial Science, all from the National Autonomous University of Mexico. She is
a Full-Time Professor at the Engineering Faculty of the UNAM in the Biomedical
Systems Engineering Department. She belongs to the research group on Optimization
in Service Companies in the Systems Engineering Department of the Engineering
Faculty at the UNAM. She has participated in several consulting projects in public
and private institutions. Her lines of research include hospital logistics, bi-level pro-
gramming, and stochastic programming.
Patricia Esperanza Balderas-Cañas holds a PhD (Hons.) in Pedagogy, a master’s

degree in Mathematics Education, and a degree in Mathematics, all of them from
UNAM. She is Full-Time and Definitive Professor in the Systems Engineering
Department, UNAM-FI. Her research lines are on operations research (inventory
theory, combinatorial optimization, and systems modeling) and structural model for
learning research.
Felipe de Jesús Lara-Rosano holds a Doctoral degree in Systems Engineering

from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). He was Senior
Researcher in the Institute for Applied Sciences and Technology, where he coordi-
nated the Group of Cybernetics and Complex Systems and now coordinates the
Academic Program of Social Complexity at the Center for Complexity Sciences of
xv
xvi About the Authors
the UNAM. He is Life Senior Member of the IEEE and his current interests are
around the analysis, modeling, and simulation of complex social systems.
Mayra Elizondo-Cortés has a Doctoral and Master’s degrees in Operations

Research from the School of Engineering of the UNAM and a degree in Applied
Mathematics and Computation. She is a Full-Time Professor in the Systems
Engineering Department, UNAM- FI. Her main lines of research are optimization,
simulation, and multicriteria analysis applied essentially to logistics and supply
chain processes. She has published notes on Computational Complexity and
Simulation and articles in the Journal of Applied Research and Technology,
International Journal of Automotive and Mechanical Engineering, and Journal of
Engineering Research and Technology.
Oscar Everardo Flores-Choperena has a master’s degree in Engineering from

UNAM, also studied Industrial and Systems Engineering at UNITEC. He partici-
pated in the TREPCAMP Entrepreneurship Advanced Program at UC Berkeley.
Nowadays he is pursuing master´s degree in Technology Management at UNAM. He
has been a business consultant for based technology enterprises, he applied lean
methodologies for rapid business model validation, and supports the creation of 10
startups; he has applied consulting as a systemic intervention process for the univer-
sity’s high-technology business incubator at the National Autonomous University
of Mexico.
Adela Jiménez-Montero has a degree in Applied Mathematics and Computation

and a master’s degree in Operations Research from the School of Engineering at
UNAM. She has 9 years of experience in risk for the financial sector, having worked
with two of the largest banking institutions in Mexico. Her professional career
began in BBVA, working as a risk adviser for RBB and mortgages products. She is
currently working for HSBC as Risk Manager of retail customers and has collabo-
rated in the process of defining original strategies for credit cards and customer view
analysis, topics related to the pre-approval process of credits, costs and processes
optimization, customer's segmentation, fraud monitoring and control, income infer-
ence, development of growth strategies, and risk control, taking care of both cus-
tomer and bank benefits.
Cozumel A. Monroy-León obtained her PhD in Industrial Engineering from the

National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble, France. For 2 years she worked in the
Health Policy Coordination of the Medical Benefits Directorate of the IMSS,
designing projects that improve the quality of care of the beneficiaries. From 2006
to 2017, she was a subject Professor at the UNAM Engineering graduate where she
taught courses on Technological Innovation, Technology Management,
Organizational Change Management, and Technological Development for New
Products.
About the Authors xvii
Manuel Ordorica-Mellado is an actuary, demographer specialized in mathemati-

cal demography, a doctor of Operations Research, and a Mexican academic from El
Colegio de México (COLMEX). He was President of the Mexican Demographic
Society. He studied the actuary career at the Faculty of Sciences of the National
Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). Later, he obtained the demography
master's degree from COLMEX. He obtained his doctorate with an honorable men-
tion in Engineering with a specialty in Operations Research at UNAM, with his
doctorate thesis “The Kalman Filter in Population Planning.” He was Head of the
Department of Demographic Evaluation and Analysis in the General Directorate of
Statistics at the National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics (INEGI).
From 1977 to 1987, he was Director of Population Studies of the National Population
Council (CONAPO), as well as consultant in population education for the United
Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). In the area
of teaching and academia, he is Professor-Researcher in Demography and the
Doctorate in Population Studies at COLMEX. He is a Member of the Editorial
Board of Population magazine (INED, Paris).
Manuel Ordorica es actuario, demógrafo especializado en demografía
matemática, doctor en investigación de operaciones y académico mexicano de El
Colegio de México. Fue presidente de la Sociedad Mexicana de Demografía.
Estudió la carrera de actuario en la Facultad de Ciencias de la Universidad Nacional
Autónoma de México. Posteriormente cursó la maestría de Demografía por El
Colegio de México; se doctoró con mención honorífica en Ingeniería con especiali-
dad en Investigación de Operaciones en la UNAM, con su tesis de doctorado El
filtro de Kalman en la planeación demográfica. Fue jefe del departamento de evalu-
ación y análisis demográfico en la Dirección General de Estadística en el Instituto
Nacional de Estadística Geografía e Informática (INEGI). De 1977 a 1987 fue
director de Estudios de Población del Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO),
así como consultor en educación en población de la Organización de las Naciones
Unidas para la Educación, la Ciencia y la Cultura (UNESCO). En el área de docen-
cia y de la academia es coordinador de la Maestría en Demografía y del Doctorado
en Estudios de Población en COLMEX. Fungió como director del Centro de
Estudios Demográficos y de Desarrollo Urbano de El Colegio de México. Forma
parte del Consejo Editorial de la revista Population (INED, París).
Gabriel de las Nieves Sánchez-Guerrero holds a Doctoral degree (Hons.) in

Systems Engineering from the Engineering Graduate School at UNAM. Nowadays
he is Full-Time and Definitive Professor in the Systems Engineering Department of
the Faculty of Engineering (UNAM-FI). His research interests include the heuristic
techniques for participatory planning and systems interactive evaluation. His cur-
rent research is heuristic systemic evaluation.
Benito Sánchez-Lara holds a Doctoral and master’s degrees in the Engineering

Program from the UNAM and the bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering.
Nowadays is Full-Time Professor in the Systems Engineering Department of the
UNAM-FI, where is involved in Organizational and Transportation Systems
Planning. His research interests include logistics and supply chain, tactical plan-
ning, resilience, and viable systems analysis.
Contributors
Ricardo Aceves-García Department of Systems, Faculty of Engineering, National

Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
Zaida E. Alarcón-Bernal Department of Biomedical Systems Engineering,
Faculty of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico
City, Mexico
Patricia Esperanza Balderas-Cañas Department of Systems, Faculty of
Engineering, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
Felipe de Jesús Lara-Rosano Complexity Sciences Center, National Autonomous
University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
Mayra Elizondo-Cortés Department of Systems, Faculty of Engineering, National
Oscar Everardo Flores-Choperena Materials Research Institute, National
Autonomous University of Mexico, Chalco, Mexican State, Mexico
Adela Jiménez-Montero Department of Systems, Faculty of Engineering,
National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
Cozumel A. Monroy-León Department of Systems, Faculty of Engineering,
National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
Gabriel de las Nieves Sánchez-Guerrero Department of Systems, Faculty of
Engineering, National Autonomous, University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
Benito Sánchez-Lara Department of Systems, Faculty of Engineering, National
xix
Part I
Methodologies
Introduction
This book is about problem-solving in management of systems engineering cases.

The content is presented in two parts, one for methodologies and the second for
techniques. In the first chapter, a methodology for the diagnosis of the organization
dynamics is discussed from the point of view of the complexity approach in order to
improve and solve problems related to its operation and management.
The author of the second chapter reasons about a process for building trend in
planning scenarios for problem-solving in public and private organizations by five
phases: (1) system definition and explanation of the current situation, (2) integration
of forecasts, (3) integration of the predictions, (4) the construction of the future
image, and (5) a description of the connection between the present and the future.
The third chapter is dedicated to explaining the organizational consulting inef-
fectiveness where three reasons are presented. Two of those reasons are associated
with the actors involved in the consulting process; the third reason is associated with
the intervention process in problem-solving.
In the fourth chapter, the objective of the author is to identify the technological,
economic, and usage ruptures, for the purpose of showing their importance in the
stabilization of a process, aimed at reaching a transformation, named the innovation
process. In problem-solving, the innovation will be considered as “the introduction
of a new or significantly improved product or process, of a new marketing or orga-
nizational method in the company’s internal practices or external relations.”
The author of the fifth chapter presents and discusses a methodology to analyze,
under a systemic approach, the visual reasoning processes given with the use of
mathematical representations when learning differential calculus, at a high school
level. The interest of the research focuses on recognizing how the students acquire
and use some systems of mathematical representation and how they organize them
to produce acceptable answers in the school environment.
Chapter 1
Theoretical-Methodological Basis
for Complex Organization Diagnosis
Felipe de Jesús Lara-Rosano
1.1 The Dynamic Diagnostic of a Complex Organization
In the present context of rapid change and turbulence, it is needed to transform the
organizations to give them greater viability, adaptability, efficiency, and dynamism
(McMillan 2008).
This implies a challenge that is neither a minor nor cosmetic: it is necessary to
develop new strategies and methods to improve organizations. This leads to the
design of new management practices and the development of different forms of
interaction between the organizational system elements (Stacey 2001) and formu-
lates operational processes more flexible and suitable to this circumstance while
attaining standards of quality and excellence.
To do this, it has been taken into account that from the 1980s onward, a new sci-
ence approach was developed, which has revolutionized physics, chemistry, and
biology (Nicolis and Prigogine 1994). It is the complex systems approach, which
comprises, among others, the self-organized systems theory (Holland 1995), the
complex adaptive systems theory, the dynamics of social networks theory (Newman
et al. 2006), chaos theory (Eve 1997), and fractal geometry (Mandelbrot 1987).
In the social sciences, innovative approaches to social theory have appeared also,
based on the interaction of individual agents (Epstein 2006; Epstein and Axtell
1996), self-organization, and social emergency (Sawyer 2005). Among these
approaches, the ones that stand out are social constructivism (Giddens 1991, 1998),
symbolic interactionism (Blumer 1969; Hewitt 1976), complex responsive pro-
cesses in organizations (Stacey 2001), society and social systems theory (Luhmann
1984), sociocybernetics (Geyer and van der Zouwen 1992; Lara-Rosano 2002),
computational sociology (Gilbert 2008), sociomatics (Castañeda 2009), sociophys-
ics (Galam 2012), and communities of practice (Wenger 1998).
F. de Jesús Lara-Rosano (*)

Complexity Sciences Center, National Autonomous University of Mexico,
Mexico City, Mexico
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 3

P. E. Balderas-Cañas, G. de las N. Sánchez-Guerrero (eds.), Problem Solving
In Operation Management, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-50089-4_1
4 F. de Jesús Lara-Rosano
This research proposes principles for the dynamic diagnosis of an organization

from the viewpoint of complexity sciences and the new social theories, in order to
improve the organizational operation and management.
1.2 Organizations as a Complex System
Knowledge is building, by the knowing subject, a conceptual representation of the

real object or process to be known, in a way that this representation is an appropriate
reflection of reality with a vision to solve a problem. This process of building a
conceptual model of reality based on perceptual experiences constitutes an episte-
mological process. This epistemological process must be based on a theoretical con-
ceptual frame, which is the paradigm (Kuhn 1970), which lets you decipher this
reality according to a worldview.
A paradigm consists of a set of basic concepts or categories, structured in a sys-
tem of relationships that gives life to a theory about reality. The conceptual model
of the focused reality, which is the result of a construction through paradigm, con-
stitutes the study object where problems and specific solutions can already be
defined. Conceptual models of reality, through relevant modeling methodologies,
can lead to simulation computational models, which allow for the explanation,
reproduction, and prediction of researched elements’ behavior (see Fig. 1.1).
One of the developed paradigms in recent years, to assist in defining the object
of study, is the paradigm of complex systems. Through it, a focused portion of real-
ity under study is conceptualized as a complex system, while the rest of reality that
influences or is influenced by the system is defined as the system environment.
Then, from the complexity sciences, an interpretation process of the complex sys-
tem’s dynamics is developed, in which parts of this are functionally structured in an
explanatory model of its behavior.
A complex system is made up of hierarchies by interrelated subsystems, each of
which in turn contains its own subsystems and so on, until reaching certain basic
elemental components of the complex system that depend on the problem to be
solved. In each of its levels, the system presents interactions and feedback among its
elements, which are nonlinear and dynamic. As a result of such interrelations, prop-
erties in the superior level emerge which none of its components of inferior level
present. For example, the living human body is made up of hierarchies by different
body systems, each of which is made up of organs, where there are nonlinear and
dynamic interrelations and feedback that originate emergent properties in the imme-
diate higher level, which none of the members present. Thus, the digestive system
can process food, decomposing it into its fundamental elements and absorbing them
into the blood, but none of its isolated organs can do it. Then, the study of a complex
system implies the introduction of totality notions, hierarchy, self-organization, and
emergency, and analyzing the phenomena therein as products of properties which
arise as a whole but are not manifested.
1 Theoretical-Methodological Basis for Complex Organization Diagnosis 5
Fig. 1.1 Methodological Computational

outline for creating the model or
subject of study (Source: simulation
Prepared by the authors)
Conceptal
model or
subject of study
Relevant Theoretical Paradigms
Paradigm of Complex Systems
Organizational Reality to Discover
Organization is an adaptive complex system of social nature, comprised of

human agents as basic members, which interrelate by communication between them
and also they carry out the different functions on an appropriate structure of the
division of labor, to fulfill the mission and objectives they have, both the organiza-
tion and its members.
Organization has properties, whose values depend on its history and define its
present state, as well as the way to transform a set of inputs and stimuli in responses
and behaviors. These properties constitute its state variables and are interconnected
in a complex network structure as a result of the systemic composition.
Organizations are open systems, because they require and are in active interac-
tion with a complex environment constituted by the natural environment, the artifi-
cial infrastructure, and the social environment in which they act. In this interaction
process, an organization changes state with time, and the states it takes are the prod-
uct of two factors: (a) the internal dynamics of the organization, which, as time
passes by, transforms the present state in a new different state, and (b) the interven-
tion of exogenous actions and events, which come from its environment, altering,
predictably or unpredictably, the organization’s state.
The internal dynamics of an organization does not emerge spontaneously in the
present but instead is always the result of a historical process. Consequently, in
analyzing such dynamic, the organization’s evolution should always be considered.
In the complex systems that include teleological members who pursue their own
agendas, as it happens in an organization, it is not enough to apply a casual approach,

but complemented with a teleological approach (Rosenblueth et al. 1950; Ackoff
and Emery 1972; Beautement and Broenner 2011).
Indeed, to analyze an organization, a teleological or intentional point of view
should be taken into account (Ackoff and Emery 1972; Lara-Rosano 2014) to con-
sider both the influence of casual mechanisms and teleological and anticipatory
mechanisms in the system and member’s behavior, which allows for the consider-
ation of the organization motivated by its objectives and, at the same time, to visual-
ize it with a casual approach, considering the historical and structural factors which
have taken the organization to its current situation.
Therefore, the internal dynamics of an organization is manifested in all its com-
plexity, when trying to analyze it to identify causes and reasons that have led it to
present a discrepancy between its current state and its desirable state. This analysis
and identification process of causes and reasons of this discrepancy, between its
current state and desirable state, is the organizational diagnostic. In this analysis, the
interactions among different hierarchical levels cannot be ignored, nor such interac-
tions can be isolated, decontextualizing them of their natural, artificial, and social
environment, but both interactions and the different aspects of the environment are
an inseparable part of such dynamic. This turns the diagnostic process into a com-
plex process in which, generally, various areas of knowledge should intervene in a
transdisciplinary way.
1.3 Analysis of Complex Organization
1.3.1 Analysis of Complex Organization Dynamics
The analysis of organizational dynamics aims to examine the temporary evolution

of the organization from an initial time, in order to understand the decisive factors
of this temporary evolution.
When analyzing the organization from the dynamic point of view, the first step is
to define its variables, which include three different types (Lara-Rosano 1990):
State variables, whose values determine its internal state in a given moment and
wherein the history of the organization is included. When the computational
model of the organization is built, the number of state variables should be neces-
sary and sufficient to understand the fundamental dynamics of the organization.
Input variables that are of two types: exogenous inputs and control parameters.
Inputs make up the different types of matter, energy, or information that the orga-
nization receives from its supra-system or its environment to process them and
obtain the outputs, products, or results given to such environment. The control
parameters are those variables susceptible to be directly manipulated intentionally,
by the organization’s management, the supra-system, or the environment in order
to modify the organization dynamics. The manipulation of these parameters

always involves a decision and a goal, for example, the acquisition of loans.
Output/response variables which, generated in the organization, are projected to the
environment as products or services and are the result of the control variable
actions on the organization and depend on the state of such. The response vari-
ables are also called output variables, and their key features are to be observable
and serve as a base to the organization’s performance evaluation.
The definition of significant input, state, and response variables in a given orga-
nization is one of the critical stages of its analysis, because from it depends, to a
large extent, the success of the next stages, as well as their utility and reliability.
The state variables of the organization define a multidimensional space called the
state space or phase space of the organization (Boccara 2004). In any practical prob-
lems, the state variables or functions of these are constrained to take values within
a certain range, defining a space of feasible states. The determination of these
restrictions involves a careful study of the organization and the interactions with its
environment.
The determination of space of feasible states of the organization is essential
because it defines the limits and ranges of the feasible solutions and, thus, the strate-
gies and heuristics appropriate for the efficient search of operational solutions to the
raised problems. Furthermore, it allows for the identification of critical restrictions
on which could be acted to modify them and thus broaden the problem-solving pos-
sibilities of the organization.
An organization can be on a regular or chaotic state, depending on groups’
behavior of potential trajectories. An organization is in a regular state if close trajec-
tories in an initial time would remain close as they evolve. An organization is in
chaotic state if initially close trajectories in an initial time are separated with time to
an exponential rate, without any intervention of external factors. In the long run, this
exponential divergence turns processes into unpredictable processes, because by
amplifying small errors in the initial conditions, it is impossible to predict in the
long run the state that the organization will have. For example, weather is a chaotic
process because even though its state can be predictable in the short term in the next
hours or days, it is totally unpredictable in the long term.
If the trajectories of a system that come from different initial states converge to a
limited region of the space of states, it is called an attractor, and the initial states of
the convergent trajectories form the attraction basin. Systems that reach an attractor
remain in it, unless fluctuations of the environment intervene. A dynamic system
can have two or more attractors, whose attraction basins are separated by borders
called separatrixes.
The identification of attractors is based on an analysis of past stages of the orga-
nization where it enjoyed stability, without notable changes by the environment and
identifying the state variables values in such circumstances. The regions of the
state’s space covered by these state variables’ values constitute the attractors of the
organization.
When the organization has great periods of stability in upcoming states, the
group of such states constitutes an inertial attractor.
This type of inertial attractor has three characteristics:
1. It’s efficient, when it comes to the organization not having to carry out new
searches of new stable states with new costs.
2. Since there are no new states, the organization does not have learning costs to be
able to handle itself in such states.
3. The organization keeps its already established relations with its environment and
enjoys the comfort of stable status quo.
However, even though sometimes inertia guarantees the survival and growth of the
organization in a stable environment, the same inertia can lead to a lack of adapta-
tion against untimely environmental changes and to a deterioration of the organiza-
tion’s ability to survive in such environment. Furthermore, inertia impedes it to
search for better states, which allow it to better fulfill its objectives.
The bifurcations are periods in time where there is a great instability and there
are several development alternatives of the organization, for example, a corporate
merger or a bankruptcy situation. The course to be taken depends on decisions in the
organization’s setting, including not taking action. The bifurcation detection in the
past of the organization allows for the identification of situations in the past, where
opportunities and threats of the environment played a definite role in decision-
making and the organization’s behavior, and it allows to be aware in future bifurca-
tions, to optimally handle the organization’s dynamics.
The regions of chaos are those where the organization’s behavior is totally irreg-
ular and unpredictable, having great uncertainty in the states that the organization
will assume in the future. Chaos refers to the organizations or some variables of
such and not its members. The regions of chaos can be identified in the records and
history of the organization and allow for the detection of turbulence and change
stages for which the organization had to go through in its birth and consolidation
process. Chaos, however, is not something negative necessarily as unpredictability,
diversity, and variety create innovation, and innovation is the author of a new order,
in giving new solutions to old complex problems (Kauffman 1993).
The attractors in which the dynamic systems behave chaotically are called
strange attractors (Ruelle and Takens 1971). In an organization, a strange attractor
can have two or more relative equilibrium regions around defined values. In such
cases, the trajectories in the space of states are attracted to these equilibrium regions,
orbiting around them, but without falling in its centers, but escaping successively
toward the basins of the remaining equilibrium regions, in an irregular and non-
repetitive way. An example of two or more strange attractors in an organization
would be power distribution in different cliques of the organization, where power
revolves around a clique during a certain period of time, to move to another clique
after. Having strange attractors is an emergent property of the chaotic complexity.
Strange attractors are found, also, from the history and records of the organization.
An organization at the edge of chaos is more stable, predictable, and controllable
than the chaotic one. The balance between order and chaos allows the organization
to have the ability to evolve in innovative ways. The soft systems participatory plan-
ning approach (Checkland and Poulter 2006) would be a procedure at the edge of
chaos that allows the organization to change but in an orderly manner and self-
organizing without external intervention. Therefore, this participatory planning
scheme of an organization, being at the edge of chaos, with its unpredictable trajec-
tories, is a source of diversity, variety, and creativity in human and social dynamics.
Thus, the unpredictable, the diverse, and the variety create novelty, and novelty is
the author of a new order, granting new solutions to old complex problems. In con-
trast, on a regular organization, its operation is predictable due to the fact that it does
not stray from the established and always gives the same solutions, whether they
work or not, affecting its adaptability to changes in its environment.
The stability at the edge of chaos is not equilibrium or lack of change: it is a drift
toward change that brings a greater ability to meet the objectives. In fact, complex
and adaptive organizations navigate between moderately unstructured states of slow
changes. These transformations provide conditions for the survival of the adaptive
complex organization and the connection with the past required for learning, analy-
sis, and reproduction. This navigation allows for random movements to stimulate
creativity and innovation.
The regions of states on the edge of chaos in an organization are also detected for
the analysis of its history and its records. The potential of the organization can be
defined as the ability to reach new functions and objectives, successfully dealing
with the fluctuation of its environment.
Fitness in a given environment is the probability of success of an organization to
survive and reach goals in that given environment. Fitness then depends on the state
of the organization as well as the state of each one of the systems of the environment
it interacts with.
For each environment state, we can then define fitness as a density function of
probability of success, a function which also receives the name of fitness landscape,
because in a two-dimensional space of states, it will have a sort of rugged shape
such as the face of the earth, with peaks that mean a greater fitness and dips that
mean a lesser fitness, along with the values of the variables of the given environment
state (see Fig. 1.2).
Fig. 1.2 Fitness landscape for a given environment (Source: Own elaboration)
The ruggedness of the fitness landscape depends on the number of members of a

system and the degree of interaction. In a steady environment, the organization
would have a single fitness landscape, the problem of estimating the points of great-
est fitness would be defined once, and the system’s management problem would be
reduced to taking it to states of maximum fitness. Nevertheless, in a changing envi-
ronment, there are as many fitness landscapes as there are environment states, and
the system’s management problem to maximize its fitness becomes a complex
problem.
On the other hand, the peaks in a fitness landscape not only vary in height but
also in acuity that in probability theory are called kurtosis (Marion 1995). Some of
them are so sharp that if the organization falls in one of them, the least of changes
in its state, considerably changes the organization fitness, which can lead to become
an inept organization in the same environment.
In other case when the fitness landscape is smooth and flat, there may be consid-
erable changes in the variables of the organization’s state, without altering its ability
by much: the organization is strong or resilient in that region of states.
The ruggedness of the fitness landscape depends on the interaction between vari-
ables of state of a system through feedback, in such a way that a change in one vari-
able of state may compensate for the changes in the other.
The potential of an organization is related to the obstacles, strengths, and
weaknesses.
Obstacles are situations that make it difficult to meet goals and, therefore, affect
the potential of the organization and may be internal, which are weaknesses with a
genesis inside the organization, and external, which originate in its environment.
There are three types of internal obstacles:
1. The lack of congruency between norms and practices refers to the discrepancies
between what the system claims as its norms, objectives, and values and what the
system actually practices in light of the empirical evidence. For example, there
are political regimes that call themselves democratic, announcing the pursuit of
a government of and for the people, when in reality the political power lies in the
hands of a person or a clique that decides everything in its favor.
2. Other type of internal obstacles is the conflicts between objectives of the system
or its members. Conflicts are debilitating to a system, in the sense that attention,
energy, and resources are consumed when they should be applied toward meet-
ing their own goals of the system.
3. “Bottlenecks” are defined as those characteristics which diminish the communi-
cation capacity, the information processing, and or the implementation of solu-
tions to system’s problems and that, as a consequence, limit its performance.
Strengths are those qualities or elements of an organization that in the past have
allowed it to perform at a high level of fitness and reach its goals and which con-
stitute the source of its comparative advantages in relation to other similar sys-
tems, and are the primary determinants of its successes. For example, the strength
of an organization may consist of its well-prepared human resources.
Weaknesses are the elements and structural and functional characteristics of the
system that may impede the meeting of functions and objectives and therefore lower
the system’s fitness.
1.4 Diagnostic of Complex Organizational Dynamics
The diagnostic of complex organizational dynamics is a research-action process to

present and solve specific problems of the organization, where members and inves-
tigators participate with its perceptions and organizational activities in the develop-
ment of solutions to said problems, through a social learning process (Checkland
and Poulter 2006).
According to the previous discussion, the diagnostic of organizational dynamics
must meet the following conditions:
1. Must be the instrument used to identify and solve real problems of the organization
2. Must be ideal in terms of direct, indirect, opportunity, and long-term environ-
mental costs, for the people in the organization as well as for those affected by it
3. Must take into account and use the resources and social capital of the organization
To begin a process of complex organizational dynamic analysis, those responsible
for the organization’s management must have a subjective perception of the context
and the problem. Indeed, they must recognize that it’s not about a situation of rou-
tine and that a new focus that reveals all opportunities possible is necessary, but do
not know how to change or what are the costs, risks, and benefits of change
(Beautement and Broenner 2011).
The methodology for the diagnostic of organizational dynamics consists of the
following stages:
1. Analysis of the organization and its environment, including problems, resources,
values, and restrictions, from different points of view. This requires participatory
activities and research (problems, resources, values, and restrictions, from differ-
ent points of view through participatory workshops with employees of the
organization).
A synthetic microanalysis is used to integrate the different elements of the
organization in an object of study (Auyang 1988).
In synthetic microanalysis, the object of study is understood as a whole. This
approach allows explaining of organizational behaviors at a holistic level,
through a macro-description and a macroanalysis.
Macro-description characterizes concisely the great characteristics of the
organization in terms of global concepts, e.g., capital, passive, active, marketing
participation, number of employees, etc. It condenses the universe of micro-
configurations in a few informative macro-variables. Its focus is synthetic ana-
lytical. Macro-descriptions use macro-concepts related to systems such as
wholes and do not refer to its members.
When the organization has been defined as a whole as well as its composite
nature, then you begin to search for underlying micro-mechanisms, which con-
stitute microexplanations. Micro-descriptions characterize the organization in
terms of the states of most relevant members, such as the state of sales per prod-
uct, client and supplier portfolio, number of factories, etc. The amount of infor-
mation required is large, because the number of possible states grows
exponentially with the number of members, by which a strict selection must be
made of the most determining elements to solve the problem we’re dealing with.
As a result of the micro-description in the context of the large macro-
description, a systemic model of the organization may be built, using some of the
best tested techniques, which would allow for interactive simulation, such as
systems’ dynamics.
On the other hand, systems affect and are affected by the dynamic nature of
the environment that may be placid with familiar manifestations; changing but
foreseeable, confirmed by established processes and apt to be discovered; defy-
ing, with innovative emerging patterns that can be explored looking for adapta-
tion; or turbulent, messy, apparently hazardous, and chaotic, with transitory
events full of opportunities and apt to experiment and learn (Beautement and
Broenner 2011).
In the analysis of the environment, the following should be identified:
• The environmental structure, meaning, the systems’ relations that they estab-
lish among themselves the various elements of such environment, as well as
their nature.
• The environmental threats, which are potential environmental behaviors that
may negatively affect the organization. For example, the approval of new fis-
cal regulations may constitute a threat for some importing or exporting
sectors.
• The environmental opportunities, which are potential environmental behav-
iors which may positively affect the organization. For example, the incorpora-
tion of Mexico to the Pacific Alliance may represent an opportunity for
manufacturing enterprises with cheap but high-quality products.
Next, we analyze the structure of the organization, specifying characteris-
tics, such as (Ackoff 1999):
• The type of organization: public, private, or both
• The labor process, including types of accessories, operations, and transforma-
tions they execute, type of intermediate and final products, and partial and
total efficiencies
• Past and present performance evaluations including the evaluation of deci-
sions made
• Formal power structure, including the formal organization chart, the distribu-
tion of decision-making power, and the participation of the various positions
in the organization’s responsibilities
• Informal power structure of the organization, parallel decision routes, and
influential groups; informal organization chart
• General policies of the organization and organizational culture, rules of the

game of the organization, and fostered, tolerated, and fought values
• Employment policies: selection, admission, formation, promotion, and
replacement of personnel
• Information flow charts inside and outside of the organization, information
emitters, transmitters, receptors and processors, efficiency, and quality
2. Definition of a desired scenario by the organizational community, through a par-
ticipatory prospective approach for the definition of short-, mid- and long-range
goals. This activity also requires participatory workshops. As a result, the orga-
nizational team produces a strategic plan to guide the development process.
3. Assignment of priorities to objectives, restrictions, and resources by the organi-
zational community and a hierarchy of problems to be resolved in the develop-
ment process, to schedule actions to be taken. For that one must consider the
intentional components of the organization with their own objectives. These own
objectives do not have the same priorities or may even be mutually counter-
imposed; therefore, an essential task is not only to identify the objectives but also
to estimate its priority for the members.
Two types of objectives stand out:
1. Own objectives, which are the objectives that are self-assigned by each inten-
tional member. The definition of own objectives indicates a certain member
autonomy, since such objectives are a reflection of one’s own interests.
2. The functions, which are the objectives that a supra-system imposes upon its
systems components, with the intention of collaborating for the supra-system to
meet its own objectives. Functions are defined by the supra-system and assumed
by the system component, which implies a normative dependency or heteron-
omy. The intentional members must then define themselves, in terms of own
objectives, as well as functions, specifying the following elements (Gelman and
Negroe 1982):
• A member’s own objectives
• The functions or role the member will carry out in his/her supra-system
• The relationships the member establishes, along with other members at the
same level which are part of the same supra-system
• The functions to perform in the element each one of the subsystems that
make it up
• The collaborative relationships, conflict, and exploitation created between the
various teleological members at all levels
1. Identification of appropriate resources to solve the defined problems, including
executive and operational activities, sources of information, financial resources,
and identification of alternative information and communication technologies.
2. Programming, implementation, and follow-up of concrete actions to solve the
problems defined in the framework of the sciences of complexity (Beautement
and Broenner 2011). This requires evaluating strategies against a space of
p ossibilities, so that the intention can be modified and social practices can be
adapted. What could happen? Are strategies valid?
Next the intervention must be prepared, shaping and adapting social practices,
deciding whether certain behaviors or interventions are tailored to the situation.
Should we change?
Finally, we must elaborate appropriate options to carry out the intervention,
given the dynamic context. It is necessary to create a balance of what is desired with
what is possible and establish a list of options that could be appropriate under cer-
tain circumstances. The management subsystem must develop talents such as exec-
utive flexibility; capacities like multi-scale capacity, ability to organize groups, to
become adaptable to different contexts; have a participatory attitude, foster trans-
parency and trust, have a transdisciplinary and inclusive focus, and be a promoter of
evaluation.
We must detect the drivers of change and adjust the degree of adequacy of abili-
ties to the context, to correspond to the nature of the gaps and tensions of change.
Are options relevant for the context? Is there a need to expand or reduce activities
as the context dynamics changes, for which we must use a fractal approach indepen-
dent from the scale and type of context?
For periodic monitoring of strategies, it is necessary to evaluate its direct effects
on the state variables.
The evaluation of the complex organizational dynamics has three phases:
Determining the initial values of the state variables relevant to the problem, before
the intervention
Defining desirable future values of the state variables at the end of the process
of change
Measuring the actual values of these variables in the present moment in which the
evaluation is done, to value the changes reached in regard to the objectives in
order to assess the changes made with respect to the objectives
The diagnostic of the organization indicates the current state and discrepancies
between it and its objectives, as well as the causes and motivations of these discrep-
ancies. This way, in this diagnostic, they must be shown, likewise, the obstacles,
weaknesses, and threats the organization suffers to reach its objectives, as well as
the strengths, potential, and opportunities it joins, including its attractors with its
attraction basins, its bifurcations, chaotic states, strange attractors, situations at the
edge of chaos, emergent transformations and processes or self-organizing attempts
and ability to estimate its future behavior possibilities, considering the possibility of
stability at the edge of chaos, as a complex adaptive organization operating in
diverse environment scenarios.
The diagnosis is, given its explanatory nature, an essential element in any attempt
to better the organization’s dynamics.
Regardless of the specific diagnostic of the organization that investigates its
structure, functions, state, environment, potential, and dynamics, it is better to
compare the organization in the study with similar organizations, with the purpose
of evaluating its performance.
This comparative process of diagnostic is called benchmarking, and to carry it
out, it is necessary to adopt a common evaluation framework, made up of common
analysis categories and observable and measurable indicators.
1.5 Conclusions
This work explained the principles for the dynamical diagnostic of complex organi-
zations, from the point of view of sciences of complexity, with the purpose of
improving the design and management of the organization, and relates this concept
with the processes of definition and solution of problems in an organization. For
that, a procedure is shown for the systemic analysis of the organization, in which it
defines its elements, environment, dynamics, variables, space of states, structure,
and potential. A diagnostic of itself is included with it. In the organization’s dynam-
ics, various elements are identified which define its complexity, such as its attrac-
tors, bifurcations, chaotic states, strange attractors, situations at the edge of chaos,
and processes or self-organization attempts, which may be used as a basis for simu-
lation models to explain the organization dynamics and better its management
processes.
Under this scheme, a methodology was proposed to evaluate the follow-up of the
dynamics of complex organization through the definition of state variables of the
organization. The evaluation of the complex organization dynamics has three stages:
1. The determination of initial values of the state variables, before interven-
tion begins
2. The definition of desired future values of the state variables, when finalizing the
process of change
3. The measuring of real values of such variables in the present moment when the
evaluation is made, to value the changes reached in regard to the objectives
References and Bibliography
R.L. Ackoff, Re-creating the Corporation: A Design of Organizations for the 21st Century (Oxford
University Press, Oxford, 1999)
R.L. Ackoff, F.E. Emery, On Purposeful Systems (Aldine Atherton, Chicago, 1972)
H.E. Aldrich, Organizations and Environment (Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, 1979)
S.Y. Auyang, Foundations of Complex System Theories in Economics, Evolutionary Biology and
Statistical Physics (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1988)
P. Beautement, C. Broenner, Complexity Demystified: A Guide for Practitioners (Triarchy Press,
Devon, 2011)
H. Blumer, Symbolic Interactionism (Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, 1969)
N. Boccara, Modeling Complex Systems (Springer, Berlin, 2004)
G. Castañeda, Sociomática: El estudio de los sistemas adaptables complejos en el entorno socio-

económico. El Trimestre Económico LXXVI(1), No. 301 enero - marzo, 5–64 (2009)
P. Checkland, J. Poulter, Learning for Action: A Short Definitive Account of Soft Systems
Methodology and its Use for Practitioners, Teachers and Students (Wiley, Chichester, 2006)
J.M. Epstein, Generative Social Science (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2006)
J.M. Epstein, R. Axtell, Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up (MIT
Press, Cambridge, 1996)
R.A. Eve, Chaos, Complexity, and Sociology: Myths, Models, and Theories (Sage Publications
Inc., Thousand Oaks, 1997)
S. Galam, Socio-Physics: A Physicist’s Modeling of Psycho-Political Phenomena (Springer,
New York, 2012)
O. Gelman, G. Negroe, La planeación como un proceso de conducción. Revista de la Academia
Nacional de Ingeniería, México. 1(4), 253–270 (1982)
F. Geyer, J. van der Zouwen, Socio-cybernetics, in Handbook of Cybernetics, ed. by C. V. Negoita,
(Marcel Dekker, New York, 1992), pp. 95–124
A. Giddens, Modernity and Self-Identity. Self and Society in the Late Modern Age (Polity Press,
Cambridge, 1991)
A. Giddens, The Third Way. The Renewal of Social Democracy (Polity Press, Cambridge, 1998)
N. Gilbert, Agent-Based Models (Sage, Los Angeles, 2008)
C. Gros, Complex and Adaptive Dynamical Systems (Springer, Berlin, 2008)
J.P. Hewitt, Self and Society (Allyn and Bacon, Boston, 1976)
J.H. Holland, Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity (Helix Books (Paperback),
New York, 1995)
S.A. Kauffman, The Origins of Order (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1993)
T.S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1970)
F. Lara-Rosano, Metodología para la planeación de sistemas: un enfoque prospectivo (Dirección
General de Planeación, Evaluación y Proyectos Académicos, UNAM, México, 1990)
F. Lara-Rosano, Cibernética y Sistemas Cognitivos, in Ingeniería de Sistemas: un enfoque inter-
disciplinario, ed. by J. Acosta Flores, (Alfaomega Grupo Editor, México, 2002), pp. 44–70
F. Lara-Rosano, Complejidad en las Organizaciones, in Encuentros con la Complejidad, ed. by
J. Flores, M. Mekler, (Siglo XXI y UNAM, México, 2011)
F. Lara-Rosano, Petri models of purposeful complex dynamic systems, in ISCS 2014
Interdisciplinary Symposium on Complex Systems, ed. by A. Sanayei, O. E. Rössler, I. Zelinka,
(Springer, Heidelberg, Alemania, 2014), pp. 183–191
N. Luhmann, Social Systems (Stanford University Press, Stanford, 1984)
B. Mandelbrot, Los Objetos Fractales (Tusquets Editores, Barcelona, 1987)
R. Marion, The Edge of Organization: Chaos and Complexity Theories of Formal Social Systems
(Sage Publications Inc., Thousand Oaks, 1995)
E. McMillan, Complexity, Management and the Dynamics of Change (Routledge, London, 2008)
M. Mitchell, Complexity: A Guided Tour (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2009)
M. Newman, A.-L. Barabási, D.J. Watts, The Structure and Dynamics of Networks (Princeton
University Press, Princeton, 2006)
G. Nicolis, I. Prigogine, La Estructura de lo Complejo (Alianza Editorial, Madrid, 1994)
D. Ruelle, F. Takens, On the nature of turbulence. Commun. Math. Phys. 20, 167–192 (1971)
R.K. Sawyer, Social Emergence: Societies as Complex Systems (Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, 2005)
Rosenblueth, A. et al. (1950) Purposeful and Non-Purposeful Behavior. Philosophy of Science,
Volume 17, Number 4, pp. 318–330
R.D. Stacey, Complex Responsive Processes in Organizations (Routledge, London, 2001)
E. Wenger, Communities of Practice (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1998)
Chapter 2
Methodology for Building Trend Scenarios
2.1 Background
History of those who have dedicated to announce future situations, or to look or

write about what is coming in the future, is integrated with a lot of names, for
example, the Hebrew prophets announcing the future, I Ching book from ancient
China, Dodona and Delphic oracles in ancient Greece, writers Jules Verne and
Herbert George Wells, famous biochemist Isaac Asimov, or futurist Alvin Toffler.
Society has learned that it is convenient to look to the future from experience and
science, because any person or nation has tomorrow assured, natural, financial, and
material resources are limited, and people feel and think in different ways. Besides,
human being has also learned that thinking about the future can make human diffi-
culties decrease and have the hope of a better tomorrow. Thinking in the future to
assure having or being has been and is a practice in all cultures living in Earth.
From ancient times, mankind has developed many ways to visualize future, from
magic rites, religious acts, oracles, or astrology to modern methods like strategic
planning, prospective, or futurology, that integrate in the so-called future studies
(Slaughter 2002, pp. 350). At the same time, instruments and techniques have been
designed to support their realization, like grimoires and magic formulas, medita-
tion, intoxicating substances, astrological charts, Delphi expert consultancy tech-
nique, Box-Jenkins analysis of time series, multiple simulation models, scenarios, etc.
Many decades ago, Ackoff expressed concisely that the gap between scientific
and technologic development and@ its assimilation in humanity was growing, so
learning and adapting capacity of society was fragile, and in consequence, moving
forward in time to look into the future was more difficult (Ackoff 1981, pp. 3–6).
This situation is observed in other complex and uncertain situations that make
G. de las N. Sánchez-Guerrero (*)

Department of Systems, Faculty of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Mexico,
Mexico City, Mexico
e-mail: gsg@unam.mx

18 G. de las N. Sánchez-Guerrero
difficult to do forecasts @and propose to “look” to the future with another approach,
like the many international financial system crisis, the increasing collective vio-
lence, or weather’s changes. This has helped future studies to reappear and, particu-
larly, in scenarios building as a good choice to deal with turbulence of different
social contexts. For instance, the variable weather conditions have caused unex-
pected floods and long droughts, producing complex situations with high uncer-
tainty and risk, hydrometeorological models are increasingly less reliable, and
decision-makers try to complement them with other proposals that gave them more
reliability. Scenarios are an option to fulfill this purpose.
UNESCO’s World Water Assessment Programme suggests using scenarios as a
practice in environment future studies (WWAP 2012, pp. 244). Also, this proposal
has become clearer in many articles about scenarios published in specialized maga-
zines, such as Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Futures, Foresight,
Agricultural Systems, Ecological Economics, European Journal of Operational
Research, Long Range Planning, etc.
2.1.1 Scenarios in Interactive Planning
Planning
Planning assumed as the anticipated rational decision-making (Ackoff 1970, p. 2) is

studied as a scientific discipline since second half of the twentieth century. Then, it
has evolved through the years, being applied to many objects and situations, accord-
ing to certain needs and interests. Being from transdisciplinary nature, planning has
taken a lot from other scientific, technic, and, also, artistic disciplines, resulting in
multiple types and approaches and integrating in a knowledge field that becomes
difficult to delimitate its limits.
In this chapter, we delimit scenarios inside interactive planning, which sustain
that, if future doesn’t exist, it is possible to build it from will (free will) @and
accepting context restrictions and makers self-restrictions. These limitations can be
attended, depending on the attitude to the future that is adopted, being inactive,
reactive, preactive, or proactive (interactive) (Ackoff 1981, pp. 51–65).
Taking systems’ thinking as background, Ackoff proposes interactive planning’s
concept and states that the interactive planner has a creative thinking, promotes
people involved participation, and seeks systems’ learning and adaption (Ackoff
1981, p. 63). Interactive planning process is integrated by five phases: formulation
of the mess, ends planning, means planning, resource planning, and design of
implementation and control (Ackoff 1981, p. 74). In the first phase, reference sce-
narios’ preparation is located; and in the second, idealized design development
occurs (frequently called as normative scenario). Then, inside the second phase,
reference scenarios and idealized design are compared to determine the gaps of
divergences that planning will pursue to “fill.” In third, fourth, and fifth phases,
Ackoff doesn’t consider scenarios explicitly.
2 Methodology for Building Trend Scenarios 19
Scenarios
Frequently, the word scenario, when read or listened to, is associated with the idea
of theatre, visualizing like a space where a scene is taking place, where is an ambi-
ent and circumstances surrounding the actors. In@ sceneries’ rebuilt past, present,
or future, possible scenes can be represented, but finally scenarios’ aim is to com-
municate the interpretation of a specific situation.
From 1950, scenario planning as a concept was introduced from the army to
industrial and governmental sectors. In first place, scenarios were used to describe
future situations with the purpose to design military plans and take decisions.
Beginnings of the 1960s from the twentieth century, Herman Kahn spread @sce-
nario as a concept in future studies, and then, Theodore J. Gordon, H. Hayward,
Olaf Helmer, and Norman Dalkey, among others, continued its development as a
technique. In France, at the end of World War II, Gaston Berger developed futurist
studies known as prospective, which later were continued by Bertrand de Jouvenel,
Futuribles International promoter. Nowadays, it is possible to distinguish two main
trends: the logical intuitive school and prospective school (O’Brien 2004, p. 711;
Bradfield et al. 2005, p. 800).
There are several proposals to classify scenarios: Börjeson et al. (2006, p. 725)
integrate them in predictable, exploratory, and normative factors. Van Notten (2003,
p. 426) gathers them in simple, complex, decision support, intuitive, exploratory,
and formal factors. Julien et al. (1974, p. 255) group them in exploratory scenarios
(trend and framework) and anticipated scenarios (normative and in contrast). In
these classifications, it seems that the focus is in the future and, in general, scenario
theme has been developed in this way, although visualized futures are supported by
past and present situations.
This article takes the idea that four states exist to describe scenarios: a current,
past, and future (trend or desired) state, as shown in Fig. 2.1.
De León (2010, p. 20) reviews “scenario” as a term, finding that there are a big
number of definitions to conceptualize it, depending on the scientific discipline in
which it is developed (Theron et al. 2009, p. 620), that is necessary to indicate that
there are many scenario approaches like different types of future studies, which
have several objectives (Höjer et al. 2011, p. 3); in other words, there is no a unique
orientation in scenarios (Durance and Godet 2010, p. 1488); however, scenarios are
in the middle of debate (Wright 2003, p. 7). Some definitions analyzed are:
• It is a story that leagues historic and present events with hypothetical future epi-
sodes; scenarios are mechanisms to produce relevant information to take any
decision (Van der Heijden 2005, p. 15).
• It is an imaginary sequence of events, @in which is taken into account complex
elements, from which is formed a coherent, systematic, comprehensive, and pos-
sible story (Coates 2000, p. 116).
• They are resources to order @alternate future perceptions and surroundings
where decisions can be taken (Chermack 2005, p. 61).
Future
Desired
Events
Scenario
NBA
National
Selection Future
Trend
Major
Scenario
League
Current Team
Scenario Selection
of my
Neighborhood
Past
Scenario
Fig. 2.1 Four states in scenario description (Source: Sánchez-Guerrero 2016)
• They are alternate creations of future representations built from people participa-
tion: experts, strategist, and administrators (Varum and Melo 2010, p. 356).
• It is a description (usually from a possible future) that assumes intervention of
many key events or conditions that can occur between original situation time and
an established time after (Durance and Godet 2010, p. 1489). These authors
emphasize that building has to have a scientific basis, particularly, using formal
analytic models.
Considering the aforementioned, on this chapter, two basic concepts are used in
the definition of scenarios:
• The sequence or combination of analytically structured events that conduces to
build a possible future
• The description of a possible future with logical arguments based in experience
In this way, we consider that scenario is conceptualized as a system, that is part
of interactive planning process, and is the result of dialogue and reflection of people
involved, that use reliable information (statistical and/or opinions) to describe a
future state, starting from present and a historical review. It uses a conceptual, meth-
odological, and analytic technical background, integrates heuristic planning, and
describes (builds), in a comprehensive, coherent, simple, possible, and credible
way, how current situation connects with the visualized future.
In other words, scenarios are stories elaborated by actors involved in a system
that want to represent scenes that show hypothetical future situations where a
dynamic of actors is recreated,@ the events and trends dynamics in a determined
historic context.
Because the present is the only time that exists, from here and now, it can be
rebuild any version of history and also look future from different ways. There is no
unique answer, so we have to avoid keeping with fixated or prejudged ideas. It is
important to remind that anything is possible and when human being imagines
something, the idea takes the germ of its realization.
Scenario, as a systemic construction, demands the active participation of stake-
holders. An open participation (of assembly) with stakeholders of the system is
functionally difficult, because gathering all frequently is not possible and the
dynamics in these forums is easily contaminated. Leading the elaboration process
with all will demand a lot of work and requires a special place, and the cost will
increase. Beside, dynamic handling would have major difficulties. It is convenient
to try people participate in a structured way, being this with a work plan, in small
groups and with organizational levels. A good option is designing similar groups as
suggested by Ackoff (1981, p. 163–168) in circular organization.
2.1.2 Trend Scenarios
Marco Polo and Christopher Columbus are names that identify great explorers, and
they were people that took risks inquiring the unknown and opened new paths to
mankind. In this way, trend scenarios are stories that pretend to explore and stay
ahead to the future, being virtual incursions from explorers that narrate possible
future situations in which can be found obstacles and opportunities.
Relating Ackoff’s planning typology (1981, Chap. 3) and Fig. 2.1, the current
and past scenarios are the product of facts’ structuration and adopt, respectively, an
inactive “doing nothing” or reactive “of nostalgia” attitude. The future trend sce-
nario adopts the preactive attitude of “going ahead of future,” based in significant
variable projection, supposing a following of trends. Meanwhile, desired future sce-
nario limits to “redesign future” with a proactive attitude. Here, reference is exclu-
sively made to trend scenarios. Ackoff (1981, p. 75) puts trend scenarios in the first
phase of planning interaction cycle, which he calls particularly reference scenarios.
Özbekhan (1974, p. 75) calls them logic future, and Bright (1978, p. 41) refers them
as forecasts.
Ackoff (1981, p. 59) distinguishes forecasts from reference projections. He men-
tions that a reference projection is an extrapolation of an acting feature that has had
a system since recent past and probably will have in the future, supposing that will
not have a significant change in its behavior (that is a common idea of a prognostic);
meanwhile, he associates forecast with prediction. He mentions that forecasts are
white-lab-coat-dressed oracles helped by computers. In a different way, Wheelwright
and Makridakis (1976, p. 4–5) consider very important both (traditional) quantita-
tive and (based on predictions) qualitative forecasts.
In this chapter, it is considered that a forecast is a value anticipated estimation of
a variable that is part of a future event based in objective current or past information.
For making a forecast, it is used as an analytical model and focused in a time
horizon. Forecast supposes that analyzed phenomenon and its context do not change
inside the time horizon considered.
It is necessary to develop a trend scenario use of forecasts but is not the only
thing. With expert opinion and its formal use, underpinnings of prediction, scenar-
ios are complemented. We understand prediction as a structured expert opinion,
both inside or outside of organization, being this opinion valuable and useful to
comprehension and knowledge of studied system’s future. Expert opinion is very
important when there is a significant level of risk and/or uncertainty and has no
continuous, reliable, and appropriate information about studied phenomenon; but
having reliable and appropriate information and a low risk and uncertainty level,
expert opinion always is important and recommended; if an expert is wrong, experts
frequently look for facts, mostly imperceptibles, from what we have to focus.
Guiding prediction efforts of a group expert when they are participating in a
trend scenario development, it is considered that they have system analysis and
“logic route” that offers a forecast as supply; it can take too long to distinguish if
they do not have it, if an event is more probable than the other. This can be in detri-
mental for some experts, arguing that they are being leaded or that they have a
restrained creativity. However, in practice we have observed many times that when
an expert opinion is wanted in a planning reunion to visualize a future image, they
themselves wonder if any of the participants has measured or predicted a variable or
parameter behavior: SCT-IMT-UNAM (1998), IMTA (2006), and CONAGUA-
IMTA (2013),1 among other experiences.
According to Ackoff (1981, p. 80–84), system analysis implies as follows: loca-
tion of study system object in time and space, identification and contrast of relations
between systems with each subsystem, and relations between system with its supra-
system. In other words, study object delimitation as a system; spatial, temporal, and
realized productive activity location; system aims: vision, objectives, goals, mis-
sion; validate the organization in the flowchart reality; in situ verification of materi-
als, money, command lines and information flow; in situ verification of policies,
practices, strategies, and tactics vs. written in documents; administration style;
graphic review of past and current results; review of various actors involved (stake-
holders analysis); internal and government regulations that concern the company
and how to apply them.
Future study using trend scenarios does not pretend that results obtained are
really going to happen; it is pretended to focus to the future. Trend scenarios look to
explore and describe viable and possible future situations and explain phenome-
non’s relevant variables and its dynamic relations, considering what would happen
in the future according to its trends. They pretend to identify what possible events
can detonate current trends’ push, which will inhibit or maintain them. Likewise,
looks to identify what significant breaks or discontinuities can occur in the future,
also relating possible effects of other decisions and some external random events.
1
Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transporte (SCT), Instituto Mexicano del Transporte (IMT),
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua
(IMTA), Comisión Nacional del Agua (CONAGUA)
During its development, it is important to identify if some events can occur sev-
eral times and cause cyclical variations or if they occur occasionally. Cyclic or
extraordinary phenomena analysis helps, not only to interpret better the studied
phenomenon, it also allows to distinguish that it is possible to produce discontinui-
ties intentionally, because, also, these have occurred before.
Consequently, a trend scenario is the description of a possible future, and it is the
result of integrating forecasts and predictions for a determined phenomenon or sys-
tem. In this chapter, a process for its development is proposed.
Different processes have been suggested for elaborating trend scenarios. Here
are described some shortly:
Schoemaker (1995, p. 31) suggests seven phases: scope definition, stakeholders’
identification, basic trends’ identification, key uncertainties’ identification, original
scenario themes’ identification, consistence and plausibility verification, and learn-
ing scenarios’ development. These seven phases can be grouped into four: system
analysis, forecasts’ elaboration and analysis, scenario description, and finally a sce-
nario evaluation.
Godet (2000, p. 10) considers, inside scenario planning process, five steps for
elaboration: problem formulation-system exam, diagnosis, key variable identifica-
tion, firm dynamic, and scenario composition. In this proposal, five steps can be
gathered in three big stages: system analysis, trend analysis, and scenario
composition.
Jouvenel (2000, p. 42) establishes five phases: problem definition and horizon
selection, system elaboration and variable identification, data collection and hypoth-
esis development, possible future states’ exploration, and strategic options’ sketch.
In the same way, five phases can be grouped into three: system analysis, forecasts
elaboration, and scenario composition.
Fink and Schlake (2000, p. 39) suggest four stages: key factors’ detection, future
projections’ prospective, scenario calculation and formulation, scenario analysis,
and mapping and interpretation. In this proposal, four stages are known as system
analysis, forecasts elaboration, scenario composition, and evaluation.
Unfortunately, the previous authors describe their processes without being more
explicit in conceptual or methodological frameworks that sustain them and, also, in
definition of some terms. From aforementioned processes, it is inferred that they
part from a system analysis, then forecasts are made, then scenario is composed and
validated. The need of complement forecasts with predictions has been expressed.
In essence, what is suggested is to reunite both schools: intuitive logic and prospec-
tive school. There is an international and multiple disciplinary opinion about to
erase boundaries between quantitative and qualitative, among different scientific,
social, and humanistic disciplines, and even between schools of thought associated
to many regions of the world. Systemic thought, transdisciplinary search, and back
to human essence are a big tsunami.
Conceptual Development
Now, previous thoughts are integrated with Chermack, Gharajedaghi, and Checkland
ideas, aiming to create a procedure for trend scenarios’ development. We consider
that it is important to pick up who presents theoretical-methodological basis about
system thinking and planning, and, in Chermack’s case, because he proposes very
important approaches for scenario elaboration and evaluation based in system think-
ing and planning.
Chermack (2005, p. 65, 2011, p. 66) suggests that scenario development is part
of planning itself. Likewise, he forms the scenario conceptualization as a system
and proposes, with a systemic approach, a five-phase process: project preparation,
scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation, and project
evaluation. Also, Chermack gives scenario a process meaning and highlights con-
text relevance of scenario planning. Chermack is not more precise on how to do the
scenario exploration and building.
In order to complete Chermack’s suggestion, it can be picked up Gharajedaghi’s
system concept (2011, p. 93). He considers four relevant aspects for a system defini-
tion: structure, functions, process, and context. If scenario is conceptualized like a
system, then, based in Gharajedaghi, the aspects he proposes have to be part of a
scenario conception.
Also, Chermack’s system and process idea are added to Checkland’s methodol-
ogy (1981, p. 169, 286) used for elaborating a conceptual model. This is used for
identifying relevant aspects or activities that integrate scenario elaboration process.
Checkland’s methodology consists in these steps:
1. Study object is conceived as a productive system, where people interact (execu-
tive, employees, workers’ union, suppliers, customers, machinery and equip-
ment, money, raw materials, information, inputs, processes, products, etc.) with
a determined purpose in a specific context.
2. There are different system elaborations (pertinent systems) that depend on the
role people or groups involved play and goals they want in the system. The aim
is to get a unique representative elaboration, given its dynamic nature.
3. System construction is made answering two questions: What is it? and What
does the system do? In order to answer the first question, Checkland proposes to
write root system definition, which consists in describing concisely six signifi-
cant elements for the system performance: world vision or system’s raison d ́etre
(Weltanschauung); transformation process in which inputs are transformed in
products (transformation); benefitted or affected people from system activities
(customer); actors or people that make principal system activities (actor); system
owner that can decide if system no longer exists (owner); context or environmen-
tal restrictions that have to be taken as given (environmental). Based in previous
description, the second question can be answered in three steps: a list is gener-
ated with the minimum number of verbs (in infinitive form) that describe neces-
sary activities or functions required to fulfill with previous description; verbs are
connected to lines, like a process, according with a logical sequence; with arrow-
heads over the lines is indicated the lookalike essential flow.
4. Necessary resources’ flows are identified for system accomplish with its reason
d́etre, according with established transformation process, representing them dif-
ferently from logical dependencies.
5. Verbs’ number is watched seeking that does not increase as much as half a dozen
that a logical connection exists between them and have same detail level. Finally,
to prove that elaboration expresses what is and does the system.
6. Should it be necessary, make elaborations of different desegregation levels,
depending on needs.
Checkland associates an external evaluation being to all system elaboration that
realizes monitoring and control duties, measures system performance, and allows
its learning and adaption.
Using Chermack, Gharajedaghi, and Checkland system ideas, the steps or phases
of trend scenario elaboration process are deduced. Scenario, conceptualized as a
system, it is defined with next expression:
Scenario Si as a system
Si = F ( s,f ,p,c,a )t
i
Where s: structure, f: functions, p: processes, c: context, a: actors, t: time, i: possi-

ble models
Indeed
• s: Structure (system elements, its relations and nature)
• f: Functions (element’s dynamic relations and its properties to fulfill its goals)
• p: Processes (structure and functions interaction; transformation rules of inputs
to products)
• c: Context (system that includes study system object)
• a: Actors (benefitted and affected parties: owner, employees, customers, suppli-
ers, competitors, close society and other actors)
There will be (i) different elaborations, depending on relevant system actors,
considered hypothesis, and time dynamic (t). Considering our definition or trend
scenario previously expressed, its root definition is: A system for owners (of sce-
narios) that helps decision-making inside planning process and turbulent organiza-
tion context before it. Receives as input the structured problem, needs, demands and
organization interests and produces viable norms for decision-making. Process
shows connection between present and identified viable futures, initializing with
system analysis and using forecasts and predictions. It is elaborated in a participa-
tive and plural way by internal and external organization experts; and it is a useful
instrument to evaluate alternatives based on visualized futures, besides being an
organizational learning tool that allows to establish a dialogue between organiza-
tion’s stakeholders. The aforementioned reflects “what it is”.
Then, conceptual model is elaborated, where previous aspects are integrated

using a transformation process.
Context: Is the environment where scenario is developed and “lives” current sys-
tem. It is a turbulent environment, full of contingencies and multiple dynamic rela-
tions, which originates its complexity.
Structured is constituted with: system analysis, analytical estimation of fore-
casts, expert consultancy, future image elaboration, and document that connects
current situation with future image.
The functions (verbs) are to analyze, forecast, predict, build, and write, functions
that are needed to fulfill with goal in decision making and organizational learning,
see Fig. 2.2. Number of system’s significant verbs or elements, 7 ± 2, has been stud-
ied by different authors. For further information, Sánchez-Guerrero (2016, Chap. 3)
can be reviewed. Previously, these functions were explained concisely, however, in
the next section are described in detail.
Actors are who elaborates scenario, users of it, the decision maker and among
other participants.
Scenario elaboration process is the interaction of previous aspects, organized as
a transformation process. It receives as an input the structured problem and gener-
ates scenarios as a product to aim the goal.
2.2 Proposed Procedure
Three people groups interact in a continuous and narrow way during the trend sce-
narios elaboration: customer, planning group and experts.
In the beginning, customer and planning group establish reference terms in
which scenario or scenarios will be elaborated. Conditions will be established about
objectives and expected results, as well as costs, time and technical specifications:
information, planning horizon, suppositions, and basic values to support scenario;
potential experts and communication process continue between them.
Planning group elaborates forecasts using statistical information, formal analyti-
cal tools and simulation techniques. Besides, captures experts’ opinion to integrate
the predictions through applying heuristic participative planning techniques and
with them build scenarios. During the elaboration always are adjusts in interaction
with customer.
It is understood by customer or the organization that will use scenario, particu-
larly, who will contact planning group. Customer can be the decision maker, but not
necessarily.
In this chapter it is considered as an expert the individual which opinion has great
value and usefulness to predict and evaluate intuitively the relative occurrence and
importance of different factors, referring to a determined object or system. These
experts can be internal and/or external of the organization and its participation’s
dynamics can be structured, using organization leveled small groups, similar to
Ackoff’s proposal in circular organization.
Expert’s role is similar to Delphic oracle. Having a great reliability, should the
Oracle’s Pythia had predicted only misfortune, it would emerge a “Goodwill
Oracle”; then, exactly the opposite had occurred whether all answers would be flat-
tering. It is difficult that an expert always accept any opinion, accepting all would
deny him his analysis capability and decrease his reliability; on the other hand,
rejecting always all kind of opinion also will put his capacity as an expert in doubt
(Sánchez-Guerrero 2003, p. 127).
Based in Fig. 2.2, steps for trend scenario elaboration are presented in Fig. 2.3,
and then will be explained.
2.2.1 System Analysis and Current Situation Explanation
In this step, phenomenon is conceptualized as a system to study and placed in its spe-
cial and temporal dimensions. Problem that motivates the scenario elaboration is for-
mulated. Also the analysis level and planning horizon is settled. Objectives and
expected results are established and, based on the system analysis; significant variables
are identified to be studied. Likewise, basic hypothesis or suppositions in which vari-
ables will be projected are specified, and finally the based current situation is repre-
sented. Identifying relevant variables for scenario elaboration is crucial. It can be used
a conceptual diagram for identifying them. It is desirable that only needed variables be
(in small number 7 ± 2), that will be at the same hierarchical level, and, if it is possible,
being mutual exclusive (Sánchez-Guerrero 2003). Also, it is recommended to use in
this step other heuristic participative techniques, as TKJ, SOWT, NGT, among others.
Monitor and control
Predict
Scenarios:
Problematic Viable
needs, Analyze Build Write guidelines
demands, for
interests decision-
making
Forecast
Fig. 2.2 Trend scenario elaboration as a system. (Source: Translated from Balderas and Sánchez-
Guerrero 2015)
Problematic: needs, demands,

interests
1.
System analysis and
current situation
explanation
2. 3.
Forecasts integration Predictions integration
4.
Construction of future
image
Feedback
5. Scenarios:
Evaluation: Connection between
monitoring and viable
present and future: guidelines for
control scenario writing (Possible action
actions)
Fig. 2.3 Procedure for develop trend scenarios. (Source: Translated from Balderas and Sánchez-
Guerrero 2015)
2.2.2 Forecasts Integration
Variables are projected to the future using mathematics tools and supposing a con-
tinuous trend: Decomposition Method, using Time Series, Multiple Regression
Analysis, Box – Jenkins, among others. Using these techniques supposes that a
series of historic observations representing an underlying path of analyzed phenom-
enon are available. And they have randomness, being this lacking in purpose, cause
or order appearance. In other words, it is well known as a forecast. It is important
having information, when possible: reliable, necessary and timely. It requires a con-
sistent theoretical, methodological, and technical background. It is convenient to
acknowledge that in Mexico are multiple difficulties for getting information, some
are: (a) It is poor and scattered, (b) There are some official sources with different
versions on the same point, (c) The capture formats of the information are changed
frequently, (d) They are published with different format and with different purposes,
(e) There is discontinuity in the gathering of information, (f) The information pres-
ents distortions from who are collecting it, etc.
2.2.3 Predictions Integration
In this step the forecast results are received and complement gathering structured
expert judgement.
A group of experts is reunited and based on their expertise, they identify some
relevant variable and determine the possible trends in the analyzed phenomenon. In
this step it is necessary to use a theoretical, methodological and technically consis-
tent frame. Some heuristic participative techniques can be used such as: Nominal
Group Technique (NGT), Delphi, S-curve, Cross Impact Analysis, Morphological
Analysis, among others (Sánchez-Guerrero 2016). It is desirable to combine tech-
niques, for example, from Delphi analysis a Morphological dynamic analysis
(Ritchey 2011). Later on, a dynamic of trends can be analyzed using Cross-Impact.
2.2.4 Construction of Future Image
As shown in Fig. 2.3, Information from previous phases is integrated in this step. It
may be that people involved in previous steps be the same that elaborate future
image, however, it can be a different group or, also, like other occasions, the plan-
ning group. It is a hard task in which future image is elaborated using participant’s
creative visualization and rationally analyzed information. Using hermeneutic pro-
cedure (Beuchot 2004) or using a dialectic debate (Mason and Mitroff 1981) can
produce good results.
2.2.5 onnection Between Present and Future:

C
Scenario Writing
Finally, scenario is written using narrations, with a logical structure that allows
establishing the relation between present and future. It is desirable that consequent
scenario admits to detect tensions, sequences, discontinuities, cycles, threats, and
opportunities, as well as be a document: global, coherent, concise, simple, credible,
and possible. It is important that scenario writer or writers get involved and be
reflected on it, that follow narrations in a linked way and allow observing them-
selves and thinking about probable impacts and reactions in their situation, so
system learning can be promoted. While this reading is seen in group and participa-
tive way, scenarios turn into dialogue and thinking resources.
Talking about a specific procedure for writing is very complicated, because each
scenario is written as a play; is unique. However, next some important and desirable
aspects for its writing are shown.
Location, problem definition, suppositions, objectives, and values. System is
places in space and time, in a historic process (for example, Toluca Valley aquifer in
the state of Mexico in the last three federal administrations and in a planning hori-
zon of 10 years). Problem definition. Herman Khan said that most important during
scenario elaboration was simply to think about the problem (for example, the
“silent” destruction of Toluca Valley Aquifer, CONAGUA-GTZ 2008). Suppositions
are axioms or truths that does not require to be proved, they are assumed and lead,
greatly, information capture, process, analysis, and interpretation (for example, un-
conditional support from state and federal government is assured to hydric sector).
Objectives indicate the way scenario will take (for example, global rescue of Toluca
Valley Aquifer environment). Values express ethic way for elaborate it and to reach
the objectives (for example, in a plural participation and respect plan in which users
can organize in associations).
Variables They consist in elaborate a list with relevant internal aspects that typify
studied system (for example, water extraction), relevant external aspects that typify
general surrounding of the system (for example, water supply for Mexico City),
specific aspects on which it will try to affect (for example, liquid pressure level of
wells) and concerning aspects about policies related to studied phenomenon (for
example, current regulations). Variables and its values identification is a hard and
thoughtful task, that looks to differentiate irrelevant factors and relations from
which are really needed. As aforementioned, relevant variable number is a small
one, therefore it is recommended to use conceptual diagrams, NGT, or other tech-
niques for its identification, besides using any simulation model for a better system
comprehension and knowledge.
Actors and events Actors are people or organizations that take a big role in system
study and are linked to identified variables (for example, COTAS, Basin Councils,
Operative Organisms, CONAGUA). In the other hand, events are events or situa-
tions with occurrence probability 1 or 0, in other words, can happen or not, and that
are associated to identify relevant variables. It is important to consider those events
that impulse or inhibit system trends (for example, urban growth in Lerma munici-
pality will increase 30% in the next 10 years. Another example, water volumes esti-
mation for its bill and later charge is affected by the poor control of wells without
authorized granting in Toluca Valley industrial zone).
Invariants, important and heavy trends Invariants are supposed permanent phe-
nomena since studied time horizon (for example, cracks in Toluca Valley Aquifer
region). An important trend is the one related to a relevant variable (for example,
there is a solid trend about great urban growth in Toluca, Lerma, and Metepec
municipalities). Heavy trends are movements affecting a long-lasting phenomenon
and are difficult to modify (for example, the poor distribution of income or low
educational level).
Carriers’ facts of future All normal trend or emerging processes show symptoms
that regularly are not visible for almost all people. If a holistic and historic perspec-
tive is used for past and current events, they can detect these elements that have the
potential to modify existing trend significantly, or “trigger” new trends, sometimes,
difficult to revert (for example, silent invasion of people to federal lands over two
decades, even some legally occupied, in borders or also inside wetlands that are in
the interior of Toluca Valley Aquifer, CONAGUA-DLEM 2008-2010).
Thirty-five years ago, sporadic struggles happened in little communities of the
country (for example, Irrigation District 03, Tula city, Hidalgo state or Jojutla town
vs. Tequesquitengo town in Morelos state), sometimes lightly armed, for the right of
water use. Today these conflicts are more frequent and less controllable (for exam-
ple, the defense Yaqui people from Vicam, Sonora state); is expected that in some
years armed social movements occur where water is in dispute. Mixed with other
forces that currently are distorting social order in our country, it is likely that terror-
ist attacks would be more regular and then have water infrastructure as a target and
cause social chaos. For more information, Becerra et al. (2006) can be consulted.
In Mexico, we have had events that, if they had been detected and faced in time,
could have change history. For that, it is desirable not to continue the Mexican trend
“Here nothing happens”. The armed uprising phenomenon of January 1st from
1994, headed by EZLN (Zapatist Army for National Liberation, for its acronym in
Spanish), did not “appear from nothing”, or one person’s idea. In this way, low gov-
ernment’s action to 1985’s earthquake had an important impact for creating new
social structures and triggered merging processes that transformed correlation
between political forces. Carrying facts of future represent frequently breaks in
trends and must be on focus.
Finally, developed scenario will answer to needs of: explanation, experimenta-
tion, quantification, foresight, and learning needs.
A general procedure for scenario elaboration, adding important elements for the
writing, is shown in Fig. 2.4.
Here is the Toluca Valley Aquifer (AVT) scenario. It is based in many docu-
ments, among the most representative are: SACMEX (2007), CONAGUA-GTZ
(2008), CONAGUA-REPDA (2009), Diario Oficial de la Federación (Official
Gazette of the Federation, DOF, August 28, 2009), CONAGUA-DLEM (2008-2010),
Alcamo and Gallopín (2009), Gallopín (2011), De León (2010), De León and
Sánchez-Guerrero (2011).
Planning horizon focused on was in 10 years. This scenario integrates quantita-
tive aspects of the forecasts obtained from analysis of trends in historical statistical
data and subjective occurrence probabilities simulations from relevant qualitative
Problematic: needs,
demands, interest
1.
System analysis and
current situation
explanation
2. 3.
Forecasts integration Predictions integration
4.
Construction of future
Feedback image
Evaluation: Scenarios:
monitoring and viable guidelines for
control 5. action
Connection between
present and future: 5.1
scenario writing (Possible Location, problem
5.5 actions) definition,
Carriers facts of
suppositions,
future
objectives and
values
5.4
5.3 5.2
Invariants, important
Actors and events Variables
and heavy trends
Fig. 2.4 General procedure to develop trend scenarios. (Source: Translated from Balderas and
Sánchez-Guerrero 2015)
events for system, derived from the experts opinion on which Cross Impact Analysis
technique and KSIM Impact-99 software were used (Niccolas 2000) The events,
occurrence probabilities, and impacts, and relations between them were defined
using Delphi expert consultancy technique. Scenario elaboration lasted around
7 months because a one-year-project about aquifer and region diagnosis was taken
as background. Process of one of the consequent scenarios is shown next.
System Analysis and Current Situation Explanation
Regarding macro location of AVT, it is located in the state of Mexico, it is one of the
eight aquifers in this state, and one of the thirty-seven in all Lerma-Chapala basin.
Specifically, is located inside High basin of Lerma River, to the South of Mexican
Highlands and bordered to the north by Atlacomulco – Ixtlahuaca aquifer, to the
South by Tenango hill, to the South West by Nevado de Toluca volcano, and to the
East by Sierra de las Cruces and Monte Alto, respectively. It covers a total area of
2,738 km2. It takes up 12.17% of the state of Mexico and has a population between
2 and 2.5 million inhabitants.
Regarding micro location, municipalities inside aquifer area are: Almoloya de
Juarez, Almoloya del Río, Atizapán, Calimaya, Capulhuac, Chapultepec, Xalatlaco,
Joquicingo, Lerma, Metepec, Mexicaltzingo, Ocoyoacac, Otzolotepec, Rayón, San
Antonio la Isla, San Mateo Atenco, Temoaya, Tenango del Valle (partially),
Texcalyacac, Tianguistenco, Toluca, Xonacatlán (partially), and Zinacantepec.
It is necessary for conceptualizing the aquifer as a system to know the functions
that realizes and are performed on it. Then, entrances and exits are established as a
black box. Aquifer supplies water to the region and Mexico City.
The main natural functions of the Aquifer are:
• Water storage
• Capturing rainwater and surface runoffs
System entrances are:
1. Natural recharge: belongs basically to infiltrated volumes by rainwater
(177.8 hm3)
2. Underground entrances from Nevado de Toluca and Sierra de las Cruces belongs
to horizontal water entrances form recharge zones (157.7 hm3)
3. Induced natural recharge: it is water volume annually returning to the aquifer in
consequence of irrigation (1.3 hm3)
System exits are:
1. Evapotranspiration: it is water loss from a surface by direct evaporation with
water loss by plant transpiration
2. Granted groundwater volume: There are annual volumes of extraction
(435.66 hm3)
3. Compromised natural discharge: There are water volumes that come from
springs or base volume of water from rivers fed by the aquifer, likewise under-
ground exits are considered, that should be continuous, so next hydrogeological
units do not be affected.
Brief problematic Accelerated urban and industrial growth of Toluca Valley in the
last decades has contributed mainly with environmental modifications. Most evi-
dent has been the high contamination or Lerma River, a sample of it is the constant
presence of all sort of garbage in all the riverbed, bad odor, aquatic fauna disappear-
ing, chemical analysis that show heavy metals waste, siltation and the poor or null
riverbed slope, and health issues of inhabitants. From its source, Lerma River is
contaminated with agricultural, industrial, and urban waste, particularly from
Tenango del Valle, Joquicingo, Rayón, San Antonio la Isla, and Texcalyacac munic-
ipalities. Along its riverbed, untreated flushes that, in some cases, are treated previ-
ously and even though fulfill CAN 01.001 norm regarding sewage, they not
accomplish established parameters in Lerma River’s classification published in
DOF on April 1st, 1996. A conceptual diagram regarding AVT problematic is shown
in the next Fig. 2.5.
Problem was established analyzing geographic and economic situation, hydric
situation, including water available, quality, uses, management tools aspects, politi-
cal and institutional aspects, water, health, and environment aspects, and extreme
phenomena (floods, cracks, and others). And finally, Watershed Sustainability indi-
cator was used, which is employed by many organizations and universities for
basins and other water resources evaluation. This line reflects a low sustainability
state comparing with other water resources in the world.
Planning horizon was settled for 10 years because limitations in data. Significant
variables for study were classified in main themes: (a) economy and demography,
(b) investments (technology and environment), (c) social, (d) extreme phenomena,
(e) intellectual training and capacity, (f) informed social participation, and (g) gov-
ernment. Actors: There are about 58 actors involved in AVT management and use,
like the National Water Commission (Comisión Nacional del Agua, CONAGUA)
Central Offices, Local Office of CONAGUA in state of Mexico (EDOMEX), Basin
Council, Underground Water Technical Council (Consejo Técnico de Aguas
Subterráneas, COTAS), municipal government, many NGOs, Academic Institutes,
among others.
Some hypotheses were: federal and state unconditional support to hydric sector
is supposed. It is supposed that experts interviewed have no political turn.
Variables grouped in subject matters were: demographic, economic, technologic,
water matters investments, social, government, environmental, extreme phenomena,
intellectual capital training, informed social participation.
Some carrying future events are:
1. Silent invasion to federal lands
2. Water denationalization
3. People massive evacuation by floods
Forecasts Integration
Once relevant variables established, data generation starts for planning horizon; in
this case, trends extrapolation and Brown technique for prognostics were used.
Trends extrapolation is based in continuity and “naïve” concept, in other words, it is
assumed that what happened in past will occur in the future.
The available information regarding hydric sector, and particularly of AVT, is
deficient in many ways, being some mentioned, it is out of date, wrong data from
2
Recharge volume to
Loss of Floods and the aquifer
biodiversity deforestation
Physical & Regional geology, local

Lagoon sanitary risks to conditions & land
Dryness the population dynamics
Piezometric Cracking &

Deforestation
levels subsidence
Extraction
Infrastructure Rain
risks
Treated water Water &
Change of Lerma
volume environment river slope
quality
Clandestine Floods
water trade Rainfall
water
Methodology for Building Trend Scenarios
Social catchment
Polluted water welfare
volume Urban
development
Land
Health invation
GDP
Extracted volumes for
Recharge
local consume and for
zone
several uses in the D.F.
Aquifer of Toluca Valley,

Mexico City and Metropolitan
area
Several
Risks
discharges Treatment plants
Pollutied water malfunctioning
discharges in superficial
water corps
Subsidences
Fig. 2.5 Toluca Valley Aquifer problematic. (Source: Own elaboration based on De León 2010)
35
source, differences in measurements, no continuity in facts, different results despite

equal variables measurement, among others, that cause limitations in prognostics
development. Some relevant variables forecasts are shown next.
According with CONAPO (2010) data, municipal population of AVT could be
between 2,500,000 and 3,000,000 inhabitants. On the other hand, following elabo-
rated projections in the study of water available in Toluca Valley (CONAGUA
2003), it is expected that up to 2020 exist about 17,000,000 inhabitants in the 23
municipalities inside the valley. If two projections aforementioned are compared, it
shows that official data is lower than considered in the last projection. For year
2005, census indicates that there are 2,500,000 inhabitants in the aquifer; mean-
while, for the same year, the other study indicated approximately 13,000,000
inhabitants.
In 2007 GDP was $ 40,875.00 MXN and prognostics reflected a growth trend
that vary from $ 65,000.00 to $ 80,000.00 million MXN (1993 prices) for 2020,
indicating an average growth rate from 2.72% to 3.66%. On the other hand, accord-
ing to official estimations, the national average economic growth of GDP is calcu-
lated not exceeding 3% for 2020.
According to forecasts concerning potable water range official data, coverage of
97.27% is estimated. Water availability for 2020 regarding prognostics can be about
185–481 hm3 range.
For year 2020, granted total volume will be about 339.94 Mm3, agricultural vol-
ume about 148.80 Mm3, public supply of 125.43 Mm3, and industrial supply of
65.71 Mm3.
It is estimated that water extraction for Mexico City in 2020 would be in
24.25–95.66 m3 millions range per year.
In year 1968 piezometric levels were in 16.8 m averages, for year 2020 are esti-
mated, on average, in 38.26 m.
Predictions Integration
Delphic and Cross Impact techniques were used. This stage had as an objective to
define events, estimate their occurrence probabilities, and analyze their trends that
might happen in AVT. Both trend aspects and no trend aspects based in experts’
opinion were considered. Experts selected belong to many organizations, as:
CONAGUA Central Offices, Local Office of CONAGUA in EDOMEX, UNAM
and UAEM-CIRA, IMTA, UAM-A, Civil Defense (Protección Civil) from EDOMEX.
Once participant experts were selected and confirmed their committed participa-
tion, Delphic rounds were generated:
1. First round. Its objective was to determine trend events (events that might happen
with a high occurrence probability)
2. Second round. Most important trend events selection and classification
3. Third round. No trend events were established (events that, if happen, might
change trends drastically)
4. Fourth round. Its objective was to assign occurrence probabilities to trend events
and no trend events by experts, and impact matrix fill in. For impacts record,
experts filled in two matrixes: in first one trend events with other trend events
were compared, and in second one trend events with no trend events.
The identification of events, their description, and both initial and final occurrence
probability are shown in Table 2.1. Same experts estimated initial probabilities and
final probabilities were Cross Impact analysis result.
Likewise, results obtained by applying KSIM-IMPACT 99 Cross Impact soft-
ware (Niccolas 2000) are shown in Fig. 2.6. This representation is interesting
because a final probability considering events’ interaction was calculated. Events
having a major occurrence probability were A- C- B and D
Construction of Future Image
Future image was elaborated began in the middle of the year 2010. It was realized
integrating the forecasts and predictions, maybe the experts’ contribution was the
most important thing in this part that, in their commentaries, when were inter-
viewed, showed their visions. Future image elaboration was realized partially in a
participatory way, and may not meet all directly, because of existing conditions, and
other constraints. These were the steps to elaborate future image:
1. Grouping events according to probabilities: events were classified following
high, medium, and low occurrence probabilities.
2. Elaborating relations: Once events grouped in high, medium, and low probabil-
ity, links between them were found. Conceptual diagram elaborated for system
analysis was reused; likewise links with carrying facts of future were established
Scenario Writing
Current trends regarding aquifer deterioration process seem to be the same: aquifer
over-exploitation, urban and productive zone growth, and lower water quality will
be the three key events of this process.
The high population growth (calculated in 2,500,000 and the 3,000,000 inhabit-
ants of aquifer’s municipalities) and high economic growth (estimated in a GDP
range about MXN $ 65,000,000 – MXN $ 80,000,000 for 2020) trends will be
reflected in a water demand growth for industrial and domestic use (for year 2020,
the total granted volume according to prognostics is situated in 339.94 Mm3,
148.80 Mm3 assigned for agricultural uses, 125.43 Mm3 for public supply, and
65.71 Mm3 for industrial supply), demand that will exceed availability, in other
words, aquifer would not have the capacity for supplying (water availability for year
2020, following prognostics, can vary in a range from 185 to 481 hm3) population
for the 23 municipalities, and far from it, supplying Mexico City.
Table 2.1 Identified events by experts

Initial Final
Event Description probability probability
A Aquifer over-draining trend will increase, basically because 0.87 0.9936
its inefficient use, and will result in a significant loss in
water availability for all purposes.
B Lack of institutional and normativity capacity for aquifer 0.67 0.9567
handling regulation will continue.
C Swamp waters will be reduced because natural and human 0.77 0.97071
draining, decreasing zone’s biodiversity.
D Underground water quality will be reduced because greater 0.70 0.9364
depths extraction and contact with highly contaminated
superficial waters.
E State of Mexico’s Development Plan, and particularly 0.72 0.95569
municipalities inside Toluca Valley, will promote a strong
urban-productive growth and informal market, extending
Valley’s urban zone gradually.
F Social conflicts will increase because water shortage and 0.67 0.66146
citizenship distrust to poor government actions.
G Continuous appearance of cracks with direction mostly to 0.68 0.84578
East-West and in some cases to North-South, resulting on
high vulnerability situations.
H No government cooperation will increase and more 0.53 0.90883
indigenous-peasant actions for natural resources defense,
located in Toluca Valley Highlands (mazahua, otomí, and
other people), will occur.
I Lerma’s two swamps will be amusement parks and 0.42 0.00892
Chinampas to promote sustainable agricultural use will be
built.
J Install a public transportation system in the region (a 0.53 0.96907
suburban train) will increase immigration to the zone.
K Weather change will produce temperature fall, rainfall levels 0.5 0.81967
will increase in AVT and reduction of hydric production in
Cutzamala system.
L Enrique Peña Nieto’s election as president will be favorable 0.38 0.56728
for institutional arrangements between Mexico City and
state of Mexico governments mainly related to water
importation policies.
M Mexico City’s water treatment plant building and operation 0.45 0.06542
(in Atotonilco de Tula town) will increase water regulation
to Mexico City and will drop water extraction in Aquifer.
N Water denationalization will modify supply and demand. 0.27 0.69781
Source: De León and Sánchez-Guerrero (2011)
It is detected that maybe agricultural use cannot cause major impact, because
number of cultivated hectares has a decreasing trend (93.15 million hectares for
2020, which represents 45% less than year 2007). This shows clear signs about most
possible future behavior of water use: required volume decreasing for agricultural
use as a consequence of population growth and agricultural soil changing to
Final Probability
Initial Probability 0.993
0.971
A 0.957
0.969
C 0.956
0.870 0.936
B 0.909
D 0.846
0.820
0.770 G
C
0.720
0.700
0.680 H 0.698
0.670 F 0.661
0.67
J K
0.567
0.53
0.530
0.5 N L
0.45
0.42
Software output
0.38
KSIM-IMPACT ‘99
0.22
I 0.06
0.001
Fig. 2.6 Cross impact analysis results. (Source: De León and Sánchez-Guerrero 2011)
industrial and urban, probably the major water use for 2010–2020 range will be
domestic.
The area urbanization (produced by economic development of the zone and its
nearness to Mexico City) will cause a major coverage in potable water and sewage
systems as a need that, according to trends, will be higher than forecasted national
average for 2020, in other words, population will have restricted access to potable
water infrastructure.
Strong immigration from Mexico City to the valley, due to real estate and con-
sumer goods “accessible” prizes in one of the 23 municipalities part of AVT, will
reinforce urbanization trend, which will cause marshes damage, impacting adversely
on the landscape, biodiversity, and superficial water volumes because human drain-
ing phenomena.
It is estimated that for year 2020, only 66% of sewage will be treated. This will
heighten contamination, which will affect health from inhabitants to environment.
Besides, it is highly probable that underground water will be contaminated as a
consequence of sewage and solid waste leaking, which will provoke that extracted
water can only be used for agricultural and industrial purposes and not for domestic
consumption. Experts indicate that underground water contamination will have a
93% of occurrence probability.
Municipal inhabitants will continue in risk of unhealthiness because the presence

of diseases related to aquifer contamination, this could cause gastrointestinal, respi-
ratory, and cutaneous epidemics. Another infection focus that will last is sewage
floods from Lerma River burst. Actually, it is considered to pipe the river to avoid
these situations, however, it would take the risk that contamination emerge from the
underground because current cracks in the zone could affect this infrastructure,
causing sewage infiltration from Lerma River to the aquifer.
It is possible to build water treatment plants for municipalities to counteract
superficial contamination, which still be operated by private sector companies with-
out government strict regulation. In a period of 5 years, these companies will follow
their usual practices to reduce costs: they will not use their total capacity or give the
necessary treatment for complex contamination that will exist in the area. It will be
from year 2015, after general problem of the aquifer be intensified, that will be
viable to have a better government and social control upon these companies.
The building of suburban train scheduled to start in 2015, that will connect
Observatorio station of the subway system from Mexico City with Toluca City,
Lerma, and Metepec, will have as a consequence a major immigration to the Valley,
due to mobilization facilities. In urban development plans it is considered that
Toluca, Lerma, and Metepec will be the municipalities with greatest population
growth in the region for the next 10 years.
The State of Mexico Development Plan is structured in three supports: social,
economic, and public security, where environmental is inside economic area. The
aforementioned shows that environmental issues are –and will be– treated from an
economic perspective, at least in the next years.
The current institutional and normative capacity is a decisive fact that increases
the probability of a violent and organized social crisis occurs between 2015–2020,
as a consequence of questionable institutional functionality and efficiency for
responding to water availability and area contamination issues; as a result, institu-
tions will be compelled to change their structures and ways of operation, with the
purpose to achieve a major functionality and efficiency in solving problems related
to this aquifer. This structural change will force to improve social participation
mechanisms in the community.
In 2010–2020 period will be two federal and two state elections. All indicates
that during electoral period of 2012, the probable two strongest president candidates
will take water issue only as a political tool, because both represent opposed inter-
ests regarding water, and main objective will be again to win elections before resolv-
ing aquifer problems.
If State of Mexico’s candidate wins the president election, institutional arrange-
ments between Mexico City’s government and State of Mexico’s government could
be favored (as always as same political party wins the election in Mexico City),
mainly in relation with aquifer sanity policies, although a significant advance can-
not be produced because economic interests from industries and companies that will
promote mostly economic and political policies than environmental. In the same
way, if left-wing party candidate wins the election, maybe agreements that benefit
Mexico City will be promoted, and aquifer sanitation advances could be lightly
greater than the other candidate because environmental administration trend given
in Mexico City, but it would not be significant. The problem with other administra-
tions has been dealt generally adapting political models from international contexts.
In other words, neither next federal nor state elections are promising to rescue
this aquifer. Maybe until future elections (2017 and 2018) political class will be
forced to act in an effective way because future problems and social pressure.
Investments regarding water (governmental and private) will show annual sig-
nificant grow (71% from 2010 to 2020). Likewise, international loan will also get
higher with the purpose to resolve overexploitation and contamination situation.
This will cause a major indebtedness in State of Mexico and the country.
Besides, denationalization mechanisms applied as a government policy come
from a worldwide trend; strongly supported by International Organisms (IMF and
IDB mainly) and transnational enterprises, especially French (Suez and Vivendi),
American (Bechtel-United Utilities), and Spanish (principally Aguas de Barcelona).
As a consequence of denationalization, rates and control systems can be modern-
ized and also can be installed “prepaid water” meter. Direct consequence of dena-
tionalization is water price increase for customers.
A major municipal opening for license to supply drinking water and sewage
treatment to private companies will be promoted. In the future, new licenses will be
made by government transaction offices, which will create a kind of oligopoly.
These government offices, one by one will be managed by private entities. Another
way of denationalization is the millionaire license transfers in black market, for year
2015 a great part of licenses will be from real estate and industries and a minor
percentage to agricultural use.
Consume habits will change, especially in less privileged sectors, mainly in
Tenango del Valle, Xonacatlán, and Otzolotepec municipalities, that are character-
ized by having lowest human development rate and a low active economic popula-
tion. If water is denationalized, social conflicts will appear because water will be a
lacking resource in private hands with unachievable rates for low-income level
people and situated in poorest municipalities.
Regardless of water denationalization, social conflicts will also emerge, because
water will be a low availability resource and highly competitive, and example of this
situation will be strong mobilizations of indigenous peasant communities that are
located in Highlands of Toluca Valley (mazahua, otomí people, and others) defend-
ing natural resources in their territory, likewise, no cooperative attitude with govern-
ment will be strongly perceptible.
In relation with extreme phenomena in the area it will presented two: floods and
cracking. Weather change will reinforce floods, because rainfall levels in the zone
will increase, additionally, floods will still affect and putting people at risk, and
construction on lagoon areas will continue due to high demand on real estate. It will
be massive evacuations of people by floods because Valley has a high vulnerability
in this matter, which can modify urban and population trends. Floods will not only
affect infrastructure, also cracks that will appear continuously.
The suburban train projects can be affected by these cracks, as in installation as
its operation. Weather change also can promote aquifer recharge and different uses
of rainfall water. Although, serious and long drought seasons can occur, which
could cause a decrease of superficial and underground waterbody volumes in stud-
ied area and in others of external character, like Cutzamala system dam (which can
cause that Mexico City increases its extraction volumes in Toluca Valley aquifer,
generating a lower water supply for its municipalities). Solutions that will be intro-
duced over the course of 2010–2015 will be: the artificial aquifer recharge, applica-
tion of rainfall water collecting policies and technologies, and sewage treatment in
domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses. Another project, although not directly
related to aquifer, is that when big plant from Atotonilco for more than 60% of
Metropolitan Area of Mexico City sewage treatment will be installed, waste water
will be reused, which can contribute to reduce extracted water by Mexico City.
It is proposed that turn swamps on to recreational parks with the purpose to pro-
tect place biodiversity, generate tourism income, and create pleasant urban environ-
ments. This project will still be inoperable, due to represents a different alternative
that contradicts traditional solutions (that consist in building big infrastructure
constructions).
Regarding future intellectual capital training, it will be necessary to rain human
resources in matters of recharge, administrative management of water, rainfall tech-
nology, and environmental risk management.
AVT future is clouded without organized social participation, its future is not in
hands of science and technology or academic world, and it is in hands of political
agents, of their will and correlation of forces that result of informed and organized
social participation.
2.3 Conclusions
Methodology proposed, despite of others, has as an advantage that is supported by

system thinking, assigns trend scenario elaboration inside planning process and
considers quantitative and qualitative techniques are necessary and complementary.
It proposes five steps for its construction, particularly, five important aspects for its
writing.
The process of building the scenario allowed to “Toluca Valley Aquifer’s” stake-
holders to recognize aquifer as a system where many actors, problematics, objec-
tives, decision-making, interests and demands interact. It is normal that every
stakeholder do their activities and think that what they are doing is right, although
is not normal that they recognize that their actions are impacting whole system.
A trend scenario saturated by numbers and tables is a cold document that does
not lead to decision-making awareness. A trend scenario written only in an artistic
way, without objective information and analytic method resulted basis, will be a
weak tool in decision-making moments. A complete trend scenario has to be a prod-
uct that conjugates our analytic and synthetic thinking, in other words, it should
offers studied phenomenon awareness and simultaneously rational arguments that
lead to decision-making and organizational learning. With both approaches the
plausibility increases. Trend scenario elaboration demands will, time, money, infor-
mation, knowledge, and experience. From 6–18 months is the time estimated to
fulfill it. As long as we do plan a continuous language in our organization and sce-
narios a frequent tool to visualize future, preparing time will reduce.
One of the most difficult tasks is transforming data into narration. For that, it is
highly recommended to use diagrams or matrixes that interrelate the different events
and by them write the scenario.
References
R.L. Ackoff, A Concept of Corporate Planning (Wiley, New York, 1970)

R.L. Ackoff, Creating the Corporate Future (Wiley, New York, 1981)
J. Alcamo, G. Gallopín, Building a 2nd Generation of World Water Scenarios. UNESCO-WWAP
(United Nations World Water Assessment Programme, Paris, 2009), p. 13
P. Balderas, G. Sánchez, Ingeniería de sistemas, metodologías y técnicas. México: Plaza y
Valdes (2015)
M. Becerra, J. Sainz, C. Munoz., Los conflictos por el agua en Mexico. CIDE, Gestión y Política
Pública XV(1), 111–143 (2006)
M. Beuchot, Hermenéutica, analogía y símbolo (Herder, Barcelona, 2004)
L. Börjeson, K. Höjer, T. Ekvall, G. Finnveden, Scenario types and techniques: Toward a user’s
guide. Futures 38, 723–739 (2006)
R. Bradfield et al., The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business plan-
ning. Futures 37(8), 795–812 (2005)
J. Bright, Practical Technological Forecasting (The Industrial Management Center, Austin, 1978)
P. Checkland, Systems Thinking, Systems Practice (Wiley, Chichester, 1981)
T.J. Chermack, Studying scenario planning: Theory, Research, suggestions, and hypotheses.
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 72, 59–73 (2005)
T.J. Chermack, Scenario Planning in Organizations: How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios
(Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc., San Francisco, 2011)
J.F. Coates, Scenario planning. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 65, 115–123 (2000)
CONAGUA – GTZ. Comisión Nacional del Agua – Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische
Zusammenarbeit, Informe final: Plan de manejo de la Cuenca del Río Lerma en el Valle de
Toluca (CONAGUA, México City, 2008)
CONAGUA. Comisión Nacional del Agua, Zonas de reseva de agua potable para la ciudad de
Toluca 2030 (CONAGUA, México City, 2003)
CONAGUA. Comisión Nacional del Agua, Registro público de derechos del agua (REPDA). En
continua actualizacioón (CONAGUA, México City, 2009)
CONAGUA-DLEM, Plan de manejo de la cuenca del Acuifero Valle de Toluca (CONAGUA,
México City, 2008-2010)
CONAGUA-IMTA. Comisión Nacional del Agua-Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua,
Foros de consulta del Programa Nacional Hídrico 2013-2018 (CONAGUA-IMTA, México
City, 2013)
CONAPO. Consejo Nacional de la Población, Proyecciones de la población 2010-2050. SEGOB
(CONAPO, México City, 2010)
R. De León, La construcción de escenarios: Escenarios al 2020 para el Acuífero Valle de Toluca.
Tesis de maestría, UNAM, México, 2010
R. De León, G. Sánchez-Guerrero, Construcción de escenarios: Escenario del Acuífero Valle de
Toluca, in Memorias XIV Congreso Internacional de Investigación en Ciencias Administrativas,
(ACACIA, Boca del Río, 2011), pp. 50–65
DOF. Diario Oficial de la Federación, Declaratoria de clasificación del río Lerma que establece su
capacidad de asimilación y dilución (Gobierno de la República, México City, 1996)
DOF. Diario Oficial de la Federación, Actualización del balance hídrico, 28 de agosto (Gobierno
de la República, México City, 2009)
O. Durance, M. Godet, Scenario building: Uses and abuses. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 77,
1488–1492 (2010)
A. Fink, O. Schlake, Scenario management: An approach for strategic foresight. Compet. Intell.
Rev. 11(1), 37–45 (2000)
G. Gallopín, Global Water Futures 2050: Five Stylized Scenarios (United Nations World Water
Assessment Programme, Paris, 2011), p. 20
J. Gharajedaghi, Systems Thinking: Managing Chaos and Complexity (Elsevier, Inc., Morgan
Kaufmann, New York, 2011)
M. Godet, The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and pitfalls. Technol. Forecast. Soc.
Chang. 65, 3–22 (2000)
M. Höjer, K. Dreborg, R. Engström, U. Gunnarsson, A. Svenfelt, Experiences of the development
and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish national environmental objectives. Futuras 43,
1–15 (2011)
IMTA. Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, La investigación científica, desarrollo tec-
nológico y formación de Recursos humanos del sector hídrico en México. Memoria de la
Reunión de Planeación Participativa (IMTA, Jiutepec, Morelos, 2006)
H. Jouvenel, A brief methodological guide to scenario building. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
65, 37–48 (2000)
P. Julien, P. Lamonde, D. Latouche, La méthode des scénarios en prospective. L’ Actualité
Économique 51, 253–281 (1974)
R. Mason, I. Mitroff, Challenging Strategic Planning Assumptions, Theory, Cases and Techniques
(Wiley, New York, 1981)
H. Niccolas, Aplicación de la matriz de impactos cruzados en procesos electorales del estado
de Hidalgo: Desarrollo de la herramienta de software KSIM Impact-99. Tesis de Maestría,
UNAM, México, 2000
F. O’Brien, Scenario planning-lessons for practice from teaching and learning. Eur. J. Oper. Res.
152, 709–722 (2004)
H. Özbekhan, The emerging methodology of planning. Fields Fields 10, 63–80 (1974)
T. Ritchey, Wicked Problems – Social Messes: Decision Support Modelling with Morphological
Analysis (Springer, New York, 2011)
SACMEX. Sistema de Aguas de la Ciudad de México, Estudio de los niveles estáticos y dinámicos
de los acuíferos del Valle de Toluca para la interpretación del abatimiento que han presentado
los acuíferos del Valle de Toluca, Ixtlahuaca-Atlacomulco en los últimos 50 años (SACMEX,
México City, 2007)
G. Sánchez-Guerrero, Técnicas heurísticas participativas para la planeación: procesos breves de
intervención (Plaza y Valdes, México City, 2016)
G. Sánchez, Técnicas participativas para la planeación. México: Fundación ICA (2003)
P. Schoemaker, Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Manag. Rev. 36(2),
25–20 (1995)
SCT-IMT-UNAM. Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transporte - Instituto Mexicano del
Transporte - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Seguridad y competitividad del
sistema en el transporte carretero de cara al siglo XXI. Memoria de la Reunión de Planeación
Participativa (SCT-IMT-UNAM, Querétaro, 1998)
R.A. Slaughter, Futures studies as a civilization catalyst. Futures 34(2), 349–363 (2002)
O. Theron et al., Methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios: The exam-
ple of the SEAMLESS integrated framework. Environ. Sci. Policy 12, 619–630 (2009)
K. Van der Heijden, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation (Wiley, Chichester, 2005)
P. Van Notten, J. Rotmans, M. van Asselt, D. Rothman, An updated scenario typology. Futures 35,
423–443 (2003)
C.A. Varum, C. Melo, Directions in scenario planning literature: A review of the past decades.
Futures 42, 355–369 (2010)
S.C. Wheelwright, S. Makridakis, Forecasting Methods for Management (Wiley, New York, 1976)
A. Wright, Using Scenarios to Challenge and Change Management Thinking: , Working Paper
Series (University of Wolverhampton, Business School, Telford, 2003)
WWAP. World Water Assessment Program, The United Nations World Water Development Report
4: Managing Water under Uncertainty and Risk (UNESCO, Paris, 2012)
Chapter 3
Consulting as a Systemic Intervention
Process
Benito Sánchez-Lara and Oscar Everardo Flores-Choperena
3.1 Introduction
Companies rely on consultancy experts or firms to solve organizational problems,

which frequently involve operations, volume, and creation. Consulting failures have
been widely reported in the literature, along with the identification of a variety of
causes and proposals to solve them. Three categories of consulting failures have
been identified, which are related to consultancy actors and consulting intervention
processes: 1) consultancy responses to customer preferences; 2) consultant prac-
tices and knowledge; and 3) the techniques, practices, tools, methods, and predomi-
nant methodologies used in the consultancy.
Systemic theoretical and methodological elements have also been identified in
consultancy processes, which are integrated in different stages and establish favor-
able conditions for processes. Identified elements are based on systemic interven-
tion concepts from Midgley (2000), who defined them as proposed actions realized
by an agent to create a change that considers system limits. When these elements are
included in the consulting process, it is improved by creating conditions that favor
positive results. Furthermore, the chance of changing a typically heuristic process
into a rational process increases from the additional elements.
This chapter is structured into five sections. The first section discusses consul-
tancy and its issues, whereas the second section describes some consulting pro-
cesses. The next section features systemic intervention characteristics. In the fourth
B. Sánchez-Lara (*)
Mexico City, Mexico
e-mail: blara@unam.mx
O. E. Flores-Choperena
Materials Research Institute, National Autonomous University of Mexico,
Mexico City, Mexico

48 B. Sánchez-Lara and O. E. Flores-Choperena
section, systemic-theoretical-methodological elements are proposed for the consult-

ing process. Finally, conclusions of the work are presented.
3.2 Consultancy Problems
Consultancy has been defined by authors such as Appelbaum and Steed (2005),
Block (2009), Kubr (2009), Morfin (1993), Graubner (2006), and Schein (1988) as
an external professional service provided by specialized and qualified consultants.
The offered services aim to solve problems, discover and evaluate opportunities,
improve organizational learning, and establish solutions.
Companies that resort to consultancy expect beneficial results and changes; how-
ever, in many cases, interventions provided by consultants are ineffective. Surveys
by Mohe and Seidl (2007) indicate that consultancy customers only consider these
interventions to be moderately effective. Besides indicating improvement areas,
little empirical research has focused on the conceptualization and operationalization
of what makes a consulting intervention successful from a customer’s perspective
(Bronnenmayer et al. 2014). Zackrison and Freedman (2003) defined ineffective
consultancy in terms of incomplete achievements, time expended, and resources
and information used.
In a Mexican context, formal research on consultancy effectiveness is lacking,
but some authors have associated benefits with it. El Colegio de Mexico (2012)
reported that there is a relationship between low competitiveness of small and
medium enterprises and the insufficient number of consultants who support them.
Fondo PyME is a government support program aimed at small and medium-sized
enterprises.
The PyME Fund has resources for consultancy services. Some of these resources
are designated for instructors and consultants’ formation, whereas other resources
are allocated to elaborate methodologies, contents, and support materials for train-
ing and consultancy. The results of a Fondo PyME Evaluation showed that this fund
has no influence on employment or wages in the short term; statistical evidence for
the effects on sales is not consistent. It should be noted that evaluation results are
integrated and do not define results by categories.
The Ministry of Economy (la Secretaría de Economía 2010), in their bulletin
Nuestras empresas, Secretaría de Economía (2010) reported that the General
Consulting Program, with resources from the SME Fund, had supported 39 projects
in 2010 for an amount of MXN $71.9 million, benefitted 3421 enterprises, and
retained 14,505 employees. The National Consultancy Program PyME-JICA sup-
ported 121 enterprises for an amount of MXN $3,662,384 and retained 2803
employees.
González-Sánchez (2012) indicated that consultant activity is strategic for enter-
prises; for example, increase of people employed and income growth in this indus-
try are 3.8% and 16.5%, respectively National Institute of Statistics and Geography
of Mexico (INEGI). In an interview with Ortiz-Ruiz (2009), Toru Moriguchi,
3 Consulting as a Systemic Intervention Process 49
Chairman of Consulting Service Division, said that young consultants in Mexico

are not properly recognized; this is in contrast to Japan, where consultants are
employed as entrepreneurs or engineers for at least for 30 years before being con-
sultants. This nonconformity has emerged as a result of the Economic Association
Strengthening Agreement between Japan and Mexico.
Furthermore, despite the relevance of consultancy, the attention paid to the sub-
ject in academic research is surprisingly low, resulting in insufficient empirical data
on consultancy practice (Bronnenmayer et al. 2014). However, a literature review
by Flores-Choperena (2011) and Flores-Choperena and Sánchez-Lara (2011) iden-
tified three reasons for ineffective consultancy, based on the experience of some
experts in the consultancy field. These reasons are associated with consulting actors
and intervention strategies. The first reasons for ineffectiveness occurs when the
consulting activity is based on customer preferences (Block 2009). Therefore, a
company (considered to be the client) may assume that the answer to its needs is a
consulting intervention; thus, it turns to a consultant, which is considered to be an
agent of change that can solve problems reported by the company. In some way, the
client has already diagnosed and identified some issues that cause dissatisfaction,
discontent, and inefficacy in activities, chores, processes, functions, etc.
In this situation, the consultant focuses entirely on what the customer requires.
The idea of satisfying customer needs, as a result of the intervention process, dis-
torts the purpose of consultancy because the customer has an expected result in
mind, even though the role of any consultancy is to increase the capacity of its client
to innovate (Lessem et al. 2010). Therefore, the client will not accept suggested
solutions that are not of interest. Furthermore, if the customer wants to achieve
some change during the consulting process, the consultant will be conditioned to
perform actions associated with what the customer expects; this conditioning could
lead to consultancy being well done but incorrect.
In the second reason, the consultancy is limited by the practices and knowledge
of the consultant (Midgley 2000). The customer may not realize the origin of his
problems; however, he has a feeling that something is going wrong. Therefore, the
customer puts his trust in the consultant to take part in his company; he expects that
this intervention will improve the current condition of the company because of the
knowledge base of a highly qualified consultant (Lessem et al. 2010). The consul-
tant actor must identify and express problems to solve, formulate or select solutions,
and implement solutions. In these circumstances, theoretical-methodological limi-
tations and the experience of the consultant actor can distort the way the interven-
tion takes place and its results; in other words, the consultant has a gap between his
or her education and practical experience (Lessem et al. 2010). In other cases, the
consultant may assume a critical or reflexive attitude in the diagnosis and solution
formulation processes. As a result, the consultant selects and apply methods or tech-
niques in which he is an expert; in other words, the consultant tries to solve all
problems with the same tool.
The third line of explanation is related to the second. In the consulting field, suc-
cessful tools are transformed into popular panaceas (Ackoff 1995, 2000), which
often can monopolize consultancy practice because they are frequently requested by
customers and offered by consultants. The benefits of these tools, which are associ-
ated with globally recognized enterprises, are reported in the literature—most often
by consultants who studied in executive programs. Examples include management
by objectives (MBO), business process re-engineering (BPR), and the Balance
Scorecard (BSC), which were developed by consultant “gurus” such as Peter
Drucker (MBO), Michael Hammer and James Champy (BPR), and Robert Kaplan
and David Norton (BSC) (Lessem et al. 2010). That a company implants some of
the tools considered popular panaceas becomes a requirement to access a market
and an evaluation criterion used by regulatory institutions and companies that sub-
contract services.
The implementation of tools considered to be panaceas does not consider the
needs or conditions of the company; it is not diagnosed in order to determine its
properties and potential related to the problems that want to be solved or improved
by the consultant. The solution is implanted without a critical thought about the
limitations and scope of each tool, using them only as fashion or for accomplishing
a market requirement.
The aforementioned ideas associated with consultancy ineffectiveness explain in
some way the next set of problems:
• At the end of consulting interventions, the customer is not satisfied with the
results, changes made in the organization are not complete, or the problem of
interest is not solved.
• Through consultancy, the customer only wants to obtain a certificate or seal that
fulfills regulations or requirements.
• The customer and consultant have assumed incorrectly that the company is pre-
pared or has the proper conditions for the tool they want to implement.
• The customer and consultant do not know the theoretical-methodological infor-
mation on which many tools are based on and which demonstrates their limita-
tions and scope.
• The decision to implement a certain tool is influenced by the perception that the
customer or consultant have of its effectiveness, for many are panaceas to solve
all problems.
• The consultant’s professional profile is broad; as a result, there are marked dif-
ferences in intervention approaches, as well as in promised and achieved results.
• The success of enterprises in a specific market is defined by whether a specific
tool has been implemented. Therefore, in a consultancy relationship, the cus-
tomer asks for that specific tool and then a consultant implements it without
investigating the company’s needs and conditions.
3.3 Consulting Process
There are different consulting models and processes described in the literature
(Kubr 2009; Kurpius et al. 1993; Lippitt 1977; Lorenzo et al. 2007; Morfin 1993;
Schein 1986); in general, they are focused on the customer’s satisfaction as the last
objective. This section describes four consulting processes developed by Kubr

(2009), Morfin (1993), Block (2009), and Ochoa-Rosso (1985) in order to illustrate
and explain what a consulting process is. An important finding is that the list of
consulting process proposals is large; however, there are similarities in the steps
proposed and the intervention methods.
3.3.1 Kubr’s Consulting Process
Kubr (2009) indicated that the consulting process is based on a strong customer–
consultant relationship, where the latter is considered to be a professional in his or
her field. Kurb’s consulting process stages are initiation, diagnosis, planning the
means, application, and conclusion.
In the initiation stage, the consultant works on the customer relationship, trying
to obtain information in order to create a general overview of the current situation,
desire for change, and situations that cause the customer’s dissatisfaction. At the
end of this stage, the consultant has to make an initial analysis of the situation and
preliminary action plan. If the proposal is interesting to the customer, a consultancy
contract is established.
During the diagnosis stage, the consultant and customer work together at estab-
lishing the company’s current situation, identifying the problem, expressing the
objectives for intervention, and proposing and evaluating alternative solutions.
When planning the means, the problem’s solution is identified. This has to be
evaluated by the customer and satisfy the planned objective. The selected solution
selection should be participative, with an aim to address all stakeholder expecta-
tions. In addition, an action plan and strategy to realize changes are developed, in
addition to considering eventualities during implementation.
In the application stage, the solution is implemented. If new problems or obsta-
cles arise, it becomes necessary to review the solution and action plan. Finally, for
the conclusion stage, the consultant presents the results to be evaluated by the cus-
tomer, gives the process report, establishes commitments, and, possibly, creates a
future collaborative relationship.
3.3.2 Morfín’s Consulting Process
Morfín’s (1993) consulting process features three phases: diagnosis, operation, and
conclusion. The diagnosis phase is the most complex because it includes the first
conversations with the customer, problem delimitation and expression, generation
of solutions, and selection and elaboration of intervention strategies. The operation
phase is the intervention, during which the customer–consultant relationship is
strengthened; the consultant obtains permission to perform the intervention, so he or
she must be able to execute it and establish the best intervention conditions. The
concluding phase includes monitoring and control of intervention results, as well as

furnishing of the documents and commitments agreed upon with customer.
3.3.3 Block’s Consulting Process
Block (2009) established five phases in the consultancy process: access and con-
tract, data collection and evaluation, information exchange and planning, execution,
and extension or conclusion. In the access and contract phase, the customer evalu-
ates whether the consultant is the appropriate person to perform the intervention; it
includes meetings, presentations, and questions between the customer and consul-
tant; in addition, the customer indicates the expected results from the intervention.
The second phase is performed by the consultant, who evaluates the situation identi-
fied by the customer and attempts to structure the problem, identifies people involved
in the change, and collects data; the problem to solve is formulated in this phase.
The next phase is the customer–consultant information exchange. In this phase,
the information obtained in the previous phase is presented to the customer; the
customer’s collaboration in the analysis is important but not required. It is important
to emphasize change resistance caused by the consulting intervention. For some
people, this is the planning phase. Then, the plan is executed in the fourth phase,
based on the customer–consultant agreement. This phase is executed by one or both
of them. Finally, an intervention report is presented and, if necessary, the interven-
tion scope is extended and the customer–consultant relationship continues.
3.3.4 Systems Method of Ochoa-Rosso
Using a Mexican context, Ochoa-Rosso (1985) suggested two intervention proce-

dures. Although they are not specifically referred to as consulting processes, both
are focused on real productive systems. The first is directed to productive systems
on which corrections or improvements to functioning have to be made, whereas the
second is directed to systems for which growth or reductions must be planned.
Both procedures have marked similarities, including system identification, sys-
tem and context analysis, pre-test of alternatives, selecting alternatives, and control
after implantation. Important differences include the type of analysis that is per-
formed before presenting solutions or design alternatives; the first analysis is
restricted only to the system and the other also considers the context. Another is the
performance diagnosis that is applied before making corrections or improvements
on productive systems.
Unlike the consulting processes described previously, the Ochoa-Rosso (1985)
method does not indicate a procedure for establishing some sort of customer–con-
sultant relationship. Rather, the method focuses more on the process than on trans-
active relationships between customer and consultant.
3.3.5 Summarizing the Consulting Processes
The consulting processes documented in this section share some common elements
and highlight the customer–consultant relationship as a decisive factor. They are
useful as guides or models. However, they do not consider the conditions on which
consultancy is developed, such as complexity, plurality, and context.
If we consider consultancy as an activities system, according to Dodder and
Sussman (2002), complexity can be found in three dimensions:
1. Internal, which is given by the number of activities involved and their
interconnections.
2. Behavioral, which is given by emerging behavior with its origin in the group of
activities and interactions; these dimensions emphasize the difficulty in system-
atizing consultancy stages and uncertainty regarding response times for changes
made, as well as possible counterintuitive behaviors that emerge.
3. Evaluative, which is given by competence between decision-makers and stake-
holder perspectives; different points of view about performance, process, or con-
sultancy results can occur.
Regarding plurality, consultancy is shown as a customer–consultant relationship
in which the customer establishes his or her requirements and perspectives, and the
consultant offers his or her proposed solutions and interventions strategies. With
this definition, it can be assumed that the customer and consultant are people that act
individually; however, they can be groups that together are considered to be the
customer or the consultant. In the same way, the importance of people involved is
dissolved. Additionally, according to Flood and Jackson (1991), depending on the
stakeholder’s profile, interests, and objectives, the relationships may be singular,
plural, or coercive.
In singular relationships, stakeholders share interests, values, and beliefs that are
highly compatible; they agree on means and ends, participate in decisions-making,
and act based on agreed-upon objectives. In plural relationships, participants have
certain compatibility of interests, values, and beliefs; however, they differ on some
points. They do not necessarily agree on means and ends, but a commitment is pos-
sible; they participate in decision-making and act based on agreed-upon objectives.
The extreme relationships are coercive, in which participants do not share interests.
Values and beliefs are in conflict, they disagree on means and ends, and a real com-
mitment is not possible; some stakeholders limit others in decision-making, and
there is no agreement about objectives.
Consulting as a change process confronts the problem that the context of the
company also changes. Emery and Trist (1965) said that the context can range from
placid to turbulent. The placid context is considered the simplest, in which an enter-
prise’s purposes, as well as its problems, remain practically unchanged; problems
do not emerge systematically but randomly. On the other extreme is the turbulent
context, in which dynamic processes and systemic problems emerge. Other authors
expanded on the number of contexts; for example, Baburoglu (1988) proposes a
vortex context and Roggema (2008) discussed the swarm context.
3.4 Systemic Intervention
Midgley (2000) suggested that an intervention methodology is systemic if three

characteristics are explicit. The first involves critical thinking about limits of the
system on which the intervention is made, consequences, and possible outcomes of
decision making. Then, attempts should be made to identify the system, its boundar-
ies, and its context—in other words, include, exclude, and marginalize properly.
This identification is related to the principles and values of the consultant, as through
them the limits and scope of the consultant’s own intervention can be evaluated.
This ethical element, guiding the actions toward the objectives, becomes important
because it considers their consequences on an intervention.
Considering that consultancy takes place in the company, Midgley’s (2000)
approach involves a tactical planning method to identify critical areas where the
intervention has to be made. These can be functions, processes, or physical areas of
the same company. The identification of limits includes defining the problematic
and the scope of the consulting work. The second characteristic is judgment, which
has to be included in the methods selection for guiding the intervention. It is impor-
tant to perform a selection exercise in which the largest number of methods and
tools are analyzed, taking into consideration multiple criteria to define the proper-
ness of their use. In this way, complexity, plurality, and context conditions can be
considered. In this analysis, the largest possible number of methods should be
explored; this would assure the appropriate selection according to specific criteria.
This activity aims to ensure efficiency in Ackoff’s (1971) approach, with the best
selection and achievement of expected results.
Action is the third characteristic. Actions in consultancy are determined in a
local context, suitable to a temporal horizon, considering an improvement idea and
its objective. A systemic intervention takes into account that any action has to be in
order to improve a critical area.
Considering the aforementioned characteristics, Midgley (2000) defined sys-
temic intervention as an action with purpose, performed by an agent to create a
spatial and temporal change. Also included in this definition can be the limitations
of change through visualizing the consequences and possible outcomes, and method
selection by exploration. In this way, each intervention is unique and temporal, and
has judgments and critical principles that guide its actions.
3.4.1 Consultancy as a Systemic Intervention
The consulting processes reviewed previously do not explicitly describe stages

characterized by critical thinking and analysis, with the exception of action.
Therefore, the second objective of this chapter is to identify and place theoretical-
methodological elements of systemic intervention in the consultancy process which,
when integrated in all of its stages, establish favorable conditions for the process
itself. It is assumed that the consulting process will be a systemic intervention. The
theoretical-methodological elements are presented in the following sections and
placed in the consultancy process.
3.4.2 Critical Thinking in Consultancy
Critique should be a reflexive process in which the consultant and customer are
involved, in addition to other stakeholders in the consultancy, to delimitate and con-
textualize the enterprise, function, or area on which the intervention will be per-
formed through the consultancy. Boundary definition is an arbitrary activity but not
trivial. Therefore, the consultant or customer can decide for how long or where to
direct the consultancy; however, this decision requires one to know what is not
being considered. The predicament of boundary definition involves deciding which
problems will not be resolved or which are not in the scope of solution, which is to
exclude and even marginalize them.
The condition of critical thinking in the consultancy should determine the pur-
pose of the intervention and the tasks of the consultant. The aforementioned condi-
tions assume that the consultant has theoretical-methodological knowledge and
experience to mentally structure the intervention, which then leads to delimitation.
A mental structure is elaborated with knowledge and experience and can be mod-
ified through time according to a consultant’s skills and the abstraction methods that
he or she uses to gather information in the environment. Following Ramaprasad and
Mitroff (1984), the mental structures can guide a consultant to determining the pur-
pose of an intervention and the means to modify the status quo through them in
three ways. The first way is the application of a preexisting mental structure. This
implies an arbitrary selection process, not necessarily reflexive, from which the
intervention method is selected, considered suitable, and executed. The selection is
led by judgment standards, based in knowledge and experience; the standards are
sided with the purpose of the intervention. The definition of the standards is very
important; dichotomous standards are not recommended. The use of this mental
structure is associated with the second explanation of consultancy ineffectiveness,
in which the consultant determines the intervention approach. Also associated is a
deductive perspective that considers the situation as a well-defined problem, as
Bishop (1967) stated.
The second way is basic abstraction. Here, using observations of the problem
and data collected from it, the consultant determines what should be included,
excluded, and marginalized. The observation skills of the consultant should be
developed broadly. The use of this structure can be associated with the definition of
what Bryson (1988) called strategic aspects.
The third way is reflective abstraction. This is only possible if a consultant’s
experience and knowledge, which form his mental structure, are combined and a
reflective exercise is performed to make changes to the structure. The consultant’s
aims to evolve his or her mental structure. In general, this is the recommended
approach.
In summary, the essential component of the critique is the elaboration of a mental
structure, with which the purpose of the intervention can be determined and its
means can be selected. This elaboration must be the product of a participative pro-
cess between the consultant and customer, in which ideas are discussed and the
relationships between reality and functioning perspectives can be identified. The
same process has to show the assumptions of the consultant and customer, as well
as generate a rich but not absolute worldview.
Bishop (1967) identified three consultancy stakeholders: the customer, the con-
sultant, and a third party. Their interactions can generate multiple approaches to the
problem and possible solutions that may be in conflict. Therefore, it is necessary to
discover hidden assumptions and interests of each one, so that other points of view
can be understood.
The elaboration of a mental structure includes the design or definition of inclu-
sion, exclusion, or marginalization criteria. These can produce standards that have
to be shared by all consultancy stakeholders in order to have a shared improvement
idea and to choose between the alternatives. In addition, consultancy can be placed
in time and space in order to identify changes (if they occurred) after the interven-
tion ends.
A consultancy’s mental structure, in which the individual observations of the
stakeholders prevail, has to be shared and elaborated using individual mental struc-
tures. To explore this idea, Churchman (1971) and his inquiry systems for the elabo-
ration of mental models are used. These systems are described next.
Leibnizian System According to this inquiry system, it is possible to synthesize
reality to a rational or logical representation. A reality structure is properly logical
and can be expressed in the same terms. It is based on a formulated representation
with a theoretical framework before collecting data and facts; reality cannot be
understood unless a formal theory of it exists. This form is the perfect example of
deductive thinking.
Lockean System This is the opposite of the Leibniz system; however, a fact, con-
clusion, or proposition is not considered objective unless two or more “experts”
agree and share their observations and conclusions. This system is the best choice
for well-structured problems, where there is a consensus about nature’s problem and
its solution. This system is an example of inductive thinking.
It is necessary to point out that agreement between stakeholders is essential
because as it adds value to what is considered as reality, allowing refuting or sus-
taining of the elaborated assumptions. These assumptions about elaborated reality
are maintained unless another stronger and more detailed account emerges, which
unavoidably causes a change; this is reflective abstraction (Popper 2002; Ramaprasad
and Mitroff 1984).
Kantian System This system uses both aforementioned inquiry systems. It is rec-
ommended for poorly structured problems that lack consensus. The idea is to obtain
different points of view and potential aspects of the problem.
Hegelian System While the Kantian system considers Leibnizian and Lockean as
complementary systems, the Hegelian system considers them to be thesis and
antithesis (depending on what occurred first), with an opportunity to integrate them.
The Hegelian system is dialectic; the conflict is the principle involved in order to
show assumptions behind each world representation. In this way, reality is created
through conflict and confrontation of opposing points of view.
Singerian System The Singerian system proposes a systemic visualization of the
solution. Activities are interrelated, and reality is identified by changes or solutions.
It is considered to be a perfect example of interdisciplinary integration and also
antireductionism. Figure 3.1 illustrates this kind of inquiry system.
This method is adapted to a desired purpose. It can begin at any stage of the solu-
tion process, or it can be fragmented and grouped depending on the case. The four
stages of Fig. 3.1 guide to the solution, and there are 3555 arrangements to tackle it.
For more details, see Mitroff et al. (1974) and Suarez Rocha (1995).
Fig. 3.1 A vision of systems for problem-solving. (Source: Mitroff et al. 1974)
Judgment in Consultancy
The term judgment implies the capacity of a decision-maker to make correct deci-
sions, create valuable opinions, or make reasonable conclusions after a process
(CUP 2011; OUP 2011). For the purposes of this chapter, the term is associated with
the decision made as a consequence of the decision-maker’s capacity—in this case,
the consultant.
In consultancy, judgment is a method to solve a problem based on the consul-
tant’s knowledge about a set of justified theoretical elements of the subject. Under
this idea, it is accepted that methodological pluralism is based on theoretical plural-
ism; this means that first theory and then method. The method selection is done by
a critical examination of stakeholders’ standards—including, excluding, and/or
marginalizing theoretical elements considering the standards. When the standards
are defined and accepted, the measure of the consultancy results makes evident the
changes.
Midgley (2000) proposed that accepting the idea of theory first and then method
implies an evaluation of the utility of theory in terms of it being considered more or
less useful for the expected purpose. In addition, accepting theoretical pluralism (in
other words, accepting more than one theory for intervention) leads both consultant
and customer to a selection that, when both have a small group of theoretical and
methodological elements and experience, slants intervention and produces the fol-
lowing three problems:
• The consultant cannot understand and synthetize the different ideas of the stake-
holders, particularly of the customer.
• Questions about the selected method can emerge along the consultancy, which
decreases the action’s vitality and efforts.
• The consultant and customer have their own interpretations. The expert consul-
tants associate problems to their research field, work, or experience area. For
example, a quality specialist perceives quality problems.
To guarantee a suitable method selection in terms of the solution, it is recom-
mended to use at least two inquiry systems. Therefore, the judgment will be the
result of a critical thought, even about the scope of the solution.
Given the selection, the mental structure is modified across time, so it is neces-
sary to prompt changes through refinement and perfection. Figure 3.2, proposed by
Ramaprasad and Mitroff (1984), illustrates three stages in a mental structure devel-
opment; at the farthest point, the refinement for intuition and interpretation is
reached.
The dimensions in the graph are reflective abstraction and basic abstraction. On
the ordinate axis are two forms of judgment, emotional and logical; the first one is
subjective (with feelings), whereas the second one is objective and emphasizes logi-
cal reasoning. On the abscissa axis are two forms of abstraction or perception, sensi-
tive and intuitive; the first emphasizes acquiring information through the senses,
whereas the second collects information through the unconscious.
Refined / Thought
Judgmental Abstraction/Judgment
Primitive
Structure
Ideal development of
Non refined/Emotional
mental structure
Refined
Structure
Unrefined/Sensitive
Basic Abstraction/Perception
Fig. 3.2 Development of a mental structure. (Source: Ramaprasad and Mitroff 1984)
In addition to the recommendation of using at least two inquiry systems in the

method selection, it is suggested to combine abstraction methods to strengthen and
refine the mental structure that is used to formulate the problems and standards to
identify improvements.
From the combination of abstraction forms, Ramaprasad and Mitroff (1984) pro-
posed four personalities of the participants in the consultancy: synthetic linker, ana-
lyzer, data observer, and technical processer. In critique and judgment, the synthetic
personality is the most convenient, whereas the technical processer is the least
convenient.
Figure 3.3 shows a proposed cycle for elaboration and refinement of a mental
structure with the elements described in the two first sections. In Fig. 3.3, the pro-
cess starts in the real plane, then goes to perception and judgment, reaches refine-
ment through inquiry systems, and then turns to action, finishing again in the real
world. This cycle, despite its differences, follows Checkland’s (1991) suggestion
about soft systems methodology.
Action in Consultancy
The consulting process is oriented to a problem’s solution and its actions to achieve
improvements. Therefore, it is considered that the action characteristic is implied in
the consulting practice. In processes such as concept design, the action characteris-
tic is not implied.
MENTAL STRUCTURE (A) INQUIRING SYSTEM
JUDGEMENT DEDUCTIVE
ABSTRACTION
REFLECTIVE
EMOTIONAL MENTAL
INDUCTIVE STRUCTURE
(B)
REASONED
DEDUCTIVE
PERCEPTION INDUCTIVE
ABSTRACTION
DIALECTIC
BASIC
SENSITIVE
PRAGMATIC ACTION
INTUITIVE
REALITY
Fig. 3.3 Development of a mental structure. (Source: Flores-Choperena 2011)
3.4.3 Systemic Intervention Conditions in Consulting Practice
Systemic intervention can be summarized as a unique actions system performed in

a local and sectorial environment in a given time period. It is critically and thought-
fully selected by considering the experience and theoretical-methodological ele-
ments of the stakeholders, with the elaboration of the intervention favoring
improvements. This definition allows one to consider consulting as a systemic inter-
vention, as well as all conditions implied be fulfilled: reflexive thinking and cri-
tiques about the predicament and problem of interest, its limits, environment, scope,
and possible effects, in addition to stakeholders’ creativity, participation, and legiti-
mation. Keeping in mind the aforementioned definition and description of systemic
intervention conditions developed in the previous section, an attempt to place sys-
temic intervention conditions in the consultancy process is shown next.
It is considered that the critique condition has to be placed in the detection and
problem definition phase. The customer and consultant should identify or formulate
the problem to solve through consultancy. The judgment condition is placed along
with the formulation or elaboration of a solution, which is proposed, formulated,
and selected by the customer and consultant.
The action condition has to be placed in the solution implementation and results
evaluation phases, where customer and consultant execute actions and value their
results. Placing each systemic intervention condition in the consulting process is an

action that opens the possibility to define methodological instruments that allow
these conditions to operate in the process—in other words, instruments that promote
reflective critique and judgment between stakeholders in consultancy, particularly
in the problem and solutions formulation, respectively.
Considering that critique and judgment are conditions that are associated with
the consulting process, but knowing that these are favorable attitudes that consulting
stakeholders may or may not develop, it is recommended to include not only ana-
lytic participative techniques, but also heuristic ones.
Fig. 3.4 is an attempt to summarize the aforementioned by grouping the consult-
ing and systemic intervention phases and including theoretical-methodological ele-
ments. Additionally, in a dynamic systems approach, the influence of consulting
conditions is shown.
CONSULTING PROCESS
GENERATNG/
START/LOCATION/ DIAGNOSTIC/ FORMULATING INTERVENTION/ CLOSE/TERM/
ACCESS INFORMATION OF CHANGES EXECUTION CONTROL
OR SOLUTIONS
CRITICAL REFLECTION
(Transitive Process)
SYSTEMIC INTERVENTION
Inquiring system and mental

structure. COMPLEXITY
Inclusion criteria, exclusion and
margining.
Evaluation standards.
PLURALITY
(Decision Process)
Refining of
JUDGMENT
mental structuring
and solution
selection
ACTION (Acting
Process)
CONTEXTUAL
CHANGES Actions
Fig. 3.4 Location of systemic methodological-theoretical elements in consulting. (Source:

Author’s own elaboration)
3.5 Conclusions
Three reasons for consulting ineffectiveness were identified in this chapter, which
are associated with consultancy actors and the nature of an intervention process.
Succinctly, these lines of explanation are as follows:
• The consulting practice is conditioned by customer preferences.
• The consulting practice is conditioned by the consultant’s experience and
knowledge.
• Some techniques, practices, instruments, methods, and methodologies dominate
the consulting practice scenario.
Consulting as a systemic intervention can be defined as a unique actions system
that is performed in a local and sectorial environment over a specific time period,
selected in a critical and thoughtful way, and designed to consider customer and
consultant experience and theoretical-methodological judgment elements, in order
to make improvements.
The definition of consulting as a systemic intervention process highlights the
purpose and customer, in which the consultant must be interested, keeping in mind
what is not considered, included, excluded, and marginalized. It also takes into con-
sideration the intervention’s purpose and consultant’s role. Furthermore, it empha-
sizes selection of a suitable solution. The theoretical elements for making consulting
a systemic intervention are as follows: (1) systemic delimitation and contextualiza-
tion, (2) mental structure refinement by the customer and consultant, and (3) clas-
sification of theory over method to define proper solutions.
Methodological elements for making consulting a systemic intervention can be
summarized in the inclusion of instruments that encourage reflective critique and
judgment between consulting stakeholders, specifically in the problem and solu-
tions formulation. These instruments can turn into analytic, participative, and heu-
ristic techniques. It is recommended that techniques fulfill not just one characteristic,
but all three as much as possible. Making consulting a systemic intervention, with
critique, judgment, and action conditions, includes reducing conditionings and
biases in the consultancy process, as promoted by the customer and consultant.
Effectiveness in consulting practice—measured in terms of scope fulfillment,
expended time, employed resources, and available information—can increase, mak-
ing it a systemic intervention. Scope, time, and resources can be improved by spend-
ing a small amount of time and resources practicing critical thought and utilizing
consultancy stakeholders’ knowledge and experience. Reflective actions and deci-
sions are always preferred.
References
R.L. Ackoff, Towards a system of systems concepts. Manage. Sci. 17(11), 661 (1971)
R.L. Ackoff, Wholeing the parts and righting the wrongs. Syst. Res. 12(1), 43–46 (1995)
R.L. Ackoff, Recreación de las corporaciones: un diseño organizacional para el siglo XXI (Oxford
University, México City, 2000), pp. 257–277
S.H. Appelbaum, A.J. Steed, The critical success factors in the client–consulting relationship.
J. Manag. Dev. 24(1), 68–93 (2005)
O. Baburoglu, The vortical environment: The fifth in the Emery–Trist levels of organizational
environments. Hum. Relat. 41(3), 181–210 (1988)
B.A. Bishop, Planning as a process of social change, in (1998) Public Involvement Techniques:
A Reader of Ten Years Experience at the Institute for Water Resources, ed. by J. L. Creighton,
D. Priscoli, D. Jerome, C. Mark, (Institute for Water Resources. U.S. Corps of Engineers,
Alexandria, 1967)
P. Block, Consultoría sin fisuras (Granica, México, 2009)
M. Bronnenmayer, B.W. Wirtz, V. Göttel, Success factors of management consulting. Rev. Manag.
Sci. 10, 1–34 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11846-014-0137-5
J.M. Bryson, A strategic planning process for public and non-profit organizations. Long Range
Plann. 21(1), 73 (1988)
P.B. Checkland, Systems Thinking, System Practice (Wiley, Chichester, 1991)
C.W. Churchman, The Design of Inquiring Systems: Basic Concepts of Systems and Organization
(Basic Books, New York, 1971)
CUP, Cambridge Dictionaries Online (2011), from http://dictionary.cambridge.org/
R. Dodder, J. Sussman, The Concept of a CLIOS Analysis Illustrated by the Mexico City Case:
Working Paper Series (Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineering Systems Division,
Cambridge, 2002)
El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, Evaluación específica de Costo–
Efectividad 2010-2011, del Fondo de Apoyo para la Micro, Pequeña y Mediana Em- presa (El
Colegio de México, México City, 2012). www.colmex.com
F.E. Emery, E.L. Trist, The causal texture of organizational environments. Hum. Relat. 18(1),
21–32 (1965)
R.L. Flood, M.C. Jackson, Creative problem solving: Total systems intervention (Wiley, Chichester,
1991), pp. 223–245
O.E. Flores-Choperena, La consultoría como un proceso de intervención sistémica, Tesis de
Maestría, UNAM, 2011
O.E. Flores-Choperena, B. Sánchez-Lara, La consultoría como un proceso de intervención sis-
témica, Memorias del XV Congreso Internacional de Investigación en Ciencias Administrativas
(ACACIA) (Veracruz, México City, 2011)
I. González-Sánchez, Consultoría: Un largo camino en México, Consultoría (Industria del
Conocimiento, Cámara Nacional de Empresas de Consultoría, México City, 2012)
M. Graubner, Task, Firm Size, and organizational Structure in Management Consulting: An
Empirical Analysis from a Contingency Perspective. Series: ebs- Forschung, Schriftenreihe
der EUROPEAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Schloß Reichartshausen, vol 63 (Deutscher
Universitätsverlag, Weisbaden, 2006)
M. Kubr, La consultoría de empresas: guía de la profesión (Limusa, México City, 2009)
D.J. Kurpius, D.R. Fuqua, T. Rozecki, The consulting process: A multidimensional approach.
J. Couns. Dev. 71(6), 601–606 (1993)
R. Lessem, A. Schieffer, R. Moussavian, Rethinking management consulting: Towards integral
consulting. Transit. Stud. Rev. 17, 194–203 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11300-010-0141-7
G.L. Lippitt, Research on the consulting process. Acad. Manage. Proc. 1977, 153–157 (1977)
M.L. Lorenzo, M.L. Santos, L.P. Lara, Aspectos generales sobre el origen y conformación de los
servicios consultivos. Ciencias de la Información 38(1/2), 41–50 (2007)
G. Midgley, Systemic Intervention: Philosophy, Methodology, and Practice (Kluwer Academic/

Plenum Publishers, New York, 2000)
I.I. Mitroff, F. Betz, L.R. Pondy, F. Sagasti, On managing science in the systems age: Two schemas
for the study of science as a whole systems phenomenon. Interfaces 4(3), 46–58 (1974)
M. Mohe, D. Seidl, The consultant-client relationship: A systems-theoretical perspective.
Munchnerbetriebswirtschaftliche Beitrage Munich Bus. Res. (2), 1–38 (2007)
J. Morfin, Consultoria para el cambio dentro y fuera de la empresa (Gernika, México City, 1993)
F. Ochoa-Rosso, Método de los sistemas (Facultad de Ingeniería, UNAM, Mexico City, 1985)
S. Ortiz-Ruiz, Consultoría: ¡Fuera Máscaras!” (CNN Expansion, 2009), http://www.cnnexpansion.
com/manufactura/2009/01/27/consultoria-fuera-mascaras
OUP, Oxford dictionaries, 2010 (2011), from http://oxforddictionaries.com/
K.R. Popper, Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge (Routledge
Classics, London, 2002)
A. Ramaprasad, I.I. Mitroff, On formulating strategic problems. Acad. Manag. Rev. 9(4),
597–605 (1984)
R. E. Roggema, Swarm planning: A new design paradigm dealing with long-term problems associ-
ated with turbulence, in Ramirez et al. Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New Methods
for Applying Scenarios, (Routledge, London, 2008)
R.E. Roggema, Swarm planning: A new design dealing with long-term problems associated with
turbulence, in Ramirez HYPERLINK “http://et.al” et.al. Business Planning for Turbulent
Times: New Methods for applying Scenarios, (Routledge, London, 2008)
E. Schein, Consultoría de procesos: su papel en el desarrollo organizacional (Addison-Wesley
Iberoamericana, Argentina, 1986)
E. H. Schein, Process Consultation Volume I: Its Role Organization Development, rev. ed. Adison-
Wesley, 1988
Secretaria de Economía, Boletín Nuestras Empresas, Volumen 1, Num. 4, Octubre de 2010, http://
www.contactopyme.gob.mx/archivos/boletin/boletin4.pdf
J. Suarez Rocha, Un Modelo Cualitativo del Proceso de Solución de Problemas, El Modelo
Diamante (Facultad de Ingeniería, UNAM, México City, 1995)
R.E. Zackrison, A.M. Freedman, Some reasons why consulting interventions fail. Organ. Dev.
J. 21(1), 72–79 (2003)
Chapter 4
The Role of Technological, Economic,
and Usage Ruptures in the Innovation
Process
Cozumel A. Monroy-León
4.1 The Context of Innovation
As pointed out in the special report of The Economist magazine (2007, 1–32), inno-
vation has ceased to be exclusively part of the developed countries. The organiza-
tions of developing countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, 2005) also invest part of their budget in research and development of
new products, processes, work methods, or services, which allow them to be com-
petitive in this globalized world. To this end, the countries or organizations – in
developing countries – create areas devoted to this purpose, such as research and
development laboratories or market research departments.
Generally, the term innovation is related to the generation of new technologies
(Carayannis et al. 2015, 8), this is to say, with the creation of technological innova-
tions, such as the Mac computer, cell phone, Internet, and LCD screen. However,
technological innovations are not the only ones; there are other types of innovations
(Prax, Buisson and Silberzahn 2005, 49; Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development, 2005) such as (1) innovation of the service that McDonalds came
up with, by introducing the concept of self-service in fast food (The Economist
2007, 3); (2) the organizational innovation produced by a new way of working, by
introducing a quality control circle (Cole 2001, 8–10); (3) innovation of a process
where there are significant changes in techniques, equipment, or information sys-
tems used (Lager 2010, 286); and (4) product innovation: such is the case of the
sustainable gasket developed by UNAM’s Engineering Institute for a Mexican com-
pany specializing in gaskets (Benitez 2012) or the financial innovation exemplified
with the development of the banking system by the Medicis or the invention of the
agricultural credit by McCormick (Prax, Buisson and Silberzahn 2005, 49).
C. A. Monroy-León (*)
Mexico City, Mexico

66 C. A. Monroy-León
There are different definitions of innovation (Schumpeter 1934; Christensen

1997; Carayannis et al. 2015, 7), in this work innovation will be defined as “[…] the
introduction of a new or significantly improved product (good or service), of a pro-
cess, of a new marketing method or of a new organizational method in the compa-
ny’s internal practices, the organization of the workplace or external relations […]
A common characteristic of all types of innovation is that they should have been
introduced”. (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2005),
this is to say, that such innovation has had to be launched and accepted in a distinct
market or that has been used in the company’s operations where such innovation is
intended to be carried out.
Similarly, that innovation is not only considered “[...] to be effective should be
simple and focused; it should create new users and new markets; it should be con-
ducted in a specific and clear way“[...] (Drucker 2002) but also it should meet a need
with the purpose to be integrated into a market. This last condition will be consid-
ered as an essential characteristic in all the different types of innovation mentioned
in the previous page. However, as stated by M. Jung, Y. Lee, and H. Lee, in order to
achieve innovation, the success or failure of technological marketing considers as
critical factors the insufficient capital, market conditions deterioration, and insuffi-
cient marketing capabilities (2015, 1–22).
Authors such as Henderson and Clark (1990, 12) or Markides and Geroski (2005,
12) classify innovations into four areas, according to the impact that each one has
regarding the dimensions that each one of these authors establishes. The first ones –
Henderson and Clark – categorize innovations into two dimensions (Fig. 4.1). The
horizontal dimension impacts the product, service, or components of the process,
while the vertical captures the impact of the relationship between the tangible and
intangible components, which support its creation. In this way, the radical and
incremental innovations are obtained, on both ends. Radical innovation establishes
a new dominant design and new essential concept designs represented in compo-
nents that, together, constitute a new architecture; it breaks the existent paradigms
Without change
INCREMENTAL Modular
Relationship
between
concepts and
essential Radical
Arquitectural
components
Innovation
With change
Relnforced Destroyed
Essential concepts
Fig. 4.1 Classification of innovation. (Source: Henderson and Clark (1990))

4 The Role of Technological, Economic, and Usage Ruptures in the Innovation Process 67
and creates new markets (Colombo et al. 2015, 1–7). On the other hand, incremental
innovation redefines and expands the established design through the improvement
of an individual component; there are no changes in the relationships of the essen-
tially designed concepts. The architectural innovation reconfigures an established
system and component relationships in a different way. Finally, modular innovation
changes the essential concept designs, such as is the case of the replacement of the
analog and digital phones.
Markides and Geroski (2005, 12), on the other hand, consider the following two
dimensions to classify the different types of innovations: the effects of innovation
on consumer’s habits and behaviors and the impact generated by innovation to the
tangible and intangible assets of organization (Fig. 4.2). When classifying the type
of innovation to be carried out, the characteristics of the target market are known
and there is a clearer idea of how much transformation there will be in the assets of
organization.
As noted in Markides and Geroski’s matrix, radical innovation completely desta-
bilizes the intangible (knowledge and experience) and tangible assets (material and
human resources), and it produces a great change in the consumer’s habits. Strategic
innovation destroys the assets of organization, but it does not have an important
impact in the consumer’s habits. On the other hand, development innovation has
little impact on the assets of organization and the consumer’s habits and behaviors.
Finally, greater innovation has no important changes in the assets of organization,
but it does have a greater impact on the consumer’s habits and behaviors.
To this end, the cell phone and automobile at the moment of creation and intro-
duction in the intended market are radical innovations. Over time, companies that
produce both of these products seek to maintain their market making technological
changes, without modifying the consumer’s usage, generating strategic innovations.
Greater innovations aim to expand their segment on the market by impacting the
Greater
GREATER RADICAL
Impact on
consumer’s
habits and
behaviors DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC
Innovation
Lower
Improve Destroy
Impact of innovation on the tangible and intangible

assets of organization
Fig. 4.2 Classification of innovation. (Source: Markides and Geroski (2005))

consumer’s behavior; such is the case of a dairy farm which introduces milk of
250 milliliters in the market, a presentation that they didn’t have before. With this
introduction the dairy farm seeks to integrate in its market people that, due to their
daily activities, need containers which allows them to transport their milk in a secure
and practical way. On the other hand, development innovation aims to maintain its
market by carrying out a significant improvement which will keep their customer’s
attention, such is the case of a kid’s cereal and when a children’s movie comes out,
they change the color of the box with the purpose of having it in context in regards
to what their children’s market is living.
The creation of an innovation can bring advantages, but it also brings challenges.
Within the advantages, we can name that an innovation can make a great impact in
organization, when this is developed with the aim to generate a competitive advan-
tage (Porter 1998a, b, 165). In such a way that innovation produces important effects
in the company’s structure, such as its growth or allowing for market’s expansion.
In the case of strategic innovations, the competitive advantage can generate – when
finding the new components that will stabilize the assets of organization – a reduc-
tion of time or in production costs. Radical innovations – where intangible and
tangible assets are destroyed and it has a strong impact on the consumer’s behav-
ior – will allow knowing new technical characteristics and new market possibilities.
! It is important to know that innovation can be achieved – to obtain or maintain a
competitive advantage – through two types of relationships: “business to business”
(BtoB) and “business to consumer” (BtoC) (Prax, Buisson and Silberzahn 2005,
52). The advantage of the first relationship is that you have better control of the
costs when achieving the bid of the desired service, as the development time of a
product is reduced when the provider specializes in the requested field. The disad-
vantage is that when a relationship with a specific provider exits, the expansion to
other markets is limited. On the other hand, in regard to “business to customer,” the
consumer is the fundamental element in the social acceptance of an innovation. In a
way that the innovator needs to offer new utilities of the product, service, or process
to innovate and find new market alternatives in order to assure its acceptance.
Some of the challenges faced by an individual or company interested in making
an innovation are (Porter 1998a, b, 220) difficulty in (1) finding new market oppor-
tunities or new characteristics of the product, service, or process that one wants to
innovate; (2) balancing the new market opportunities – not defined – with the exis-
tent tangible and intangible resources, which are defined and limited; (3) “control-
ling” the risks linked to unpredictable and mysterious behavior of the target market;
and (4) having access to the new tangible and intangible assets in order to generate
innovation.
As introduced, the existence of four types of innovation and their classification
according to (1) the relationship between the essential concepts and components or
(2) the impact caused to the consumer’s behavior and/or the assets of organization
makes us question the following two points: Which elements and tools allow us to
achieve an innovation? Which steps must be followed to generate an innovation that
meets the needs of the established market?
4.2 Problem to Be Addressed
Cases such as the one of 3M with “Post-it” (Von Hippel et al. 2003, 39–64) demon-
strate how an innovation does not follow a linear path and how it faces many changes
before achieving the differentiation, which allows for the introduction into a market
and to meet a need. The creation of an innovation does not emerge in a continuous
way (Cole 2001, 19); to think that a lonely genius invents a spontaneous and differ-
ent idea which will be introduced in a market that meets a need immediately is
erroneous. The definition of the characteristics which achieve the differentiation of
the new product, service, process, or economic model in order to achieve the inno-
vation to be accepted in the market is carried out through a series of transformation
(Hargadon and Sutton 2003, 66).
The difficulty to achieve an innovation in a simple and easier way questions not
only about the stages to obtain it but also about the indicators which will allow for
its viability measurement (Alcaide-Marzal and Tortajada-Esparza 2007, 33–57) in
order to analyze the capability that an organization has to innovate (Zabala-
Iturriagagoitia et al. 2007, 85–106).
Hargadon and Sutton (2003, 65–93) propose four stages to achieve innovation.
These consist of (1) collecting key ideas coming from different places; (2) develop-
ing and defining ideas obtained discussing them with other members in order to
understand how and why the idea functions, in such a way that the positive and
negative aspects are known; (3) imagining other application possibilities of the
ideas found; and (4) moving from promising concepts to a reality of service, prod-
ucts, processes, and economic models.
In contrast, Peter F. Drucker considers that in order to achieve innovation, it
should (2001, 272–275):
1. Analyze the opportunities through one of the following sources: an unexpected
event, an incongruence in what is desired, an answer to a concrete problem, a
change in the industry or market’s structure, a demographic change, a change in
perception, and acquiring new knowledge
2. Go out, question, and listen to know what the market is searching for and wants
3. Be simple and focus in a definite market
4. Begin with focused innovations to meet a need in particular
5. Have leadership in order to achieve differentiation with the competition
Similarly, Drucker proposes three points that should be avoided (2001, 275–276):
(1) being too smart not to see the details for defining the market and identifying the
need of such; (2) branching out and losing sight of the real need that the selected
market wants; and (3) innovating for the future, as it is difficult to evaluate the
impact that will have in future years.
Due to the existing difficulty to make an innovation, to define a specific market
and identify its need in order to differentiate itself in regard to the competition, this
work proposes an “innovation process” composed of seven stages that will allow us
to achieve an innovation.
Fig. 4.3 Innovation

process – nonlinear. IDEA
(Source: Own elaboration)
formulation
Definition of technical objects
Technological analysis
Usage analysis
Economic analysis
Evaluation of technical objects
Definition of the
INNOVATIVE PROPOSAL
As seen in Fig. 4.3, the innovation process proposed in this research begins with
the idea of what we want to innovate. The first transformation is carried out when
this idea gives rise to what we will name “technical object” (Gaillard 2000, 40). It
is suggested to obtain three “technical objects” from an idea in order to evaluate
which one of them we can obtain a product, service, or process that complies with
the characteristics of an innovation: to meet a need and to have a definite market to
achieve differentiation from the competition. The subsequent transformations to
identifying the three technical objects will be carried out through three types of
analysis: technological, usage, and economic. Each analysis will allow us to obtain
the characteristic – technological, of usage, and economic – wherewith we will dif-
ferentiate the product, service, or process in order to obtain an innovation. The
obtained characteristics will be called technological rupture, usage rupture, and eco-
nomic rupture, respectively. Finally, the innovation process will end with the selec-
tion of one of the three technical objects; to do this, the different ruptures will be
evaluated for each technical object, choosing the one that best meets the established
need, in such a way that we will obtain a definite innovative offer.
The objective of this work is to show the importance of technological and eco-
nomic usage ruptures in the stabilization of the innovator process. Because, as we
mentioned earlier, the trajectory of an innovation is not lineal. The comprehension
of said process is carried out with the presentation of each stage independently, giv-
ing the impression of a linear sequence. However, each stage provides an element
that will support having ruptures; this is why there is a dependency between the
various stages of the innovation process.
Innovation is achieved through a series of transformations that allow for the
defining of its characteristics to differentiate it from competition. This
differentiation can be achieved through market selection and the identification of a

need in such a way that once the process of innovation has been stabilized – stabili-
zation is achieved when ruptures have been identified – the interested person or
organization will be able to obtain an innovative product, process, or service.
4.3 Innovative Process
Figure 4.3 shows that the innovation process presented in this document is made up
of seven stages. Each one of them is described in this section. The technological and
economic analysis of usage, will be explained though the use of tools that will allow
for the technological, economic or usage rupture, depending on the case. As stated,
we will call rupture to a characteristic that will allow the product to separate the
product, service or process from the competition.
The first stage to generate an innovation corresponds to the concretization of an
idea. A formalized idea is the result of the convergence of a problem with a means
that can be understood by the people who will be the innovation’s market. We con-
sider that (1) idea is the mental representation of something material or immaterial
and (2) the formalization of the idea is created through one of the following two
situations: the possibility to exploit an existing means or the possibility to solve an
identified problem (Gaillard 2000, 36–39). To exemplify the formalization of an
idea, we will present the case of a marathon runner where the problem he faces dur-
ing a competition is the inefficient hydration caused by the loss of liquid in the
container handed to him by the event organizers at the hydration stations. Remember
that the hydration of a marathon runner takes place during the run. It is such that the
runner, in order to solve the problem he is having, resorts to the mental representa-
tion of the means that will allow him to have an efficient hydration. That way, his
idea in this situation will be a container that will stop the excessive loss of hydrating
liquid during movement.
The formalization of an idea does not involve the way nor the means by which an
identified problem will be resolved. In order for it, the idea can be transformed in a
commercial offer. For this we consider the second stage of the proposed innovation
process, the definition of what we will call “technical object.” The technical object
is the tangible form of the idea: meaning, the immaterial form of the offer which
will be concretized in a prototype or a concept (Gaillard 2000, 40–44). The materi-
alization of the technical object in a product, service, or process will be achieved
once the technological and economic usage characteristics are identified – rup-
tures – that will allow for the evaluation if the technical object is capable of covering
the needs of the established market.
The second stage in the innovation process considers the creation of three techni-
cal objects for a defined idea. If we consider again the example of the marathon
runner, the three technical objects for the presented idea being proposed are: (1) a
light container with a small liquid output. (2) A ball which can be swallowed with a
body similar to that of a hot dog with the hydrating liquid inside of it and (3) An
edible sponge which could absorb enough liquid, but when the runner drinks does
not squeeze. Even if the materialization of something that could become an innova-
tive product, service, or process has been initiated, the identification of technical
objects does not define the elements that each one of them must have in order to
meet the needs of the established market. For example, in our second technical
object, the type of liquid to be used is not specified nor the material of the ball,
which may not dissolve with the liquid used, neither the size of the circumference
that is to be swallowed.
The elements for each one of the technical objects are defined during the follow-
ing three stages: usage analysis, technological analysis, and economic analysis. The
proposed sequence to get ruptures will have, as the first step, the technological anal-
ysis, followed by the usage analysis, and will end with the economic analysis. We
must point out that the three stages are mutually dependent. In other words, we may
not obtain the usage rupture (UR) without considering the technological rupture
(TR) and the economic rupture (ER). The transformation of a technical object into
an innovative offer takes place through a back and forth of structuring which may
consider the needs of an established market and the technical economic viability of
the immaterial innovative offer, meaning that, it is necessary to identify the quadrant
where the technical object is located within the Markides and Geroski Matrix
(2005, 12).
Upon learning the impact the technical object will have over: (1) The consumer’s
patterns and behavior and (2) The tangible and intangible characteristics needed to
achieve the materialization of the technical object, comprised of the weight that
each of the ruptures have in the type of innovation to generate (Fig. 4.4) without
losing sight that in order to achieve any time of innovation it is necessary to consider
the three analyses: usage, technological and economic. As shown in Fig. 4.4, those
innovations where both variables would impact are considered zones of uncertainty,
GREATER RADICAL
Innovation Innovation
Uncertainty Uncertainty
Zone Zone
Innovation
impact on UR / ER UR / TR / ER
consumer
patterns and
EB TR / EB
behaviors
Innovation of STRATEGIC
DEVELOPMENT Innovation
Comfort Uncertainty
Zone Zone
Innovation impact on the organization’s

tangible and intangible actives
Fig. 4.4 Position of ruptures according to innovation type. (Source: Own elaboration)
because in order to generate the innovation we must focus on two or three ruptures,
creating a detailed usage and/or technological analysis to achieve the differentiation
regarding the competition. In the case of a technical object generating an innovation
of development, the person or organization wanting to generate an innovation, must
consider that their proposal is located in a comfort zone.
When working with a technical object that leads to an innovation of development
only attempts to resist the invasion of a new product, service, or process, as men-
tioned earlier, are sought to be held on to the market segment (Fig. 4.5). This hap-
pens through an improvement attempt to the existing product, service, or product
where the current technology is at the end of its life cycle: there’s no progress and
there is no market increase (Prax, Buisson and Silberzahn 2005, 57), in such a way
that conducting an improvement is less costly by not having to: (1) Make important
changes to the intangible and tangible characteristics of the organization and (2)
Define a new market and a new need. The danger of generating innovations of
development as a means to reach a competitor’s advantage is that, within a certain
time, this innovation stops being dominant when faced against a new technology
that increases its competitiveness.
Because in order to reach a radical innovation, special attention must be given in
the three ruptures – meaning that, the technological, economic, and usage ruptures,
carry the same weight – we work with a technical object that generates a radical
innovation in order to explain the way the presented tools in the technological,
usage, and economic analyses let us obtain the characteristics that make it possible
to differentiate an innovative offer. As mentioned, these three analyses are interde-
pendent but the proposed sequence in this innovation process is: (1) Technological
analysis, (2) Usage analysis and (3) Economic analysis.
The technological analysis considers that a technology is comprised of four
parts: the theoretical knowledge, experience, raw materials, and the material and
human resources (Gaillard 2000, 182–189). The “Technical Elements Table” is the
Competitiveness
Improvement tentative
to resist the invasion
of the new product
New
Technology
TIME
Fig. 4.5 Innovation dynamics. (Source: Own elaboration)

Technical Technical Economic Key Sub-key

Providers
Element Characteristics Characteristics Elements Elements
Theoretical
Knowledge
Experience
Raw Materials
Material and Human

Resources
Fig. 4.6 Technical elements table. (Source: Own elaboration)
proposed tool to obtain the technical breakdown (Fig. 4.6); in it are embedded all
the necessary elements to allow the technical object to materialize into an innova-
tive product, service, or process. This tool allows not only to get the first global
visual of all the components – technical elements – but also allows for the under-
standing of the degree of dominance the person or innovative organization have
regarding the creation of the innovative offer. Investment into tangible and intangi-
ble resources is needed in order to achieve the materialization of the technical object.
With the identification of the key elements, the innovative person or organization
will learn the components that will allow them to reach a competitive advantage or
maintain the segment of the desired market, since these will allow to differentiate
from the competition. This means, the key elements will create technological rup-
tures. These elements must not be exchanged during the transformations made
along the innovation process, due to the fact that they are the core to achieve the
desired innovative offer. The sub-key elements are those with which we will be able
to make the characteristics equal – ruptures – offered by the competition.
In the case of technical object, the hydrating ball for marathon runners, where a
runner seeks to generate an innovation that meets the need previously men-
tioned must:
1. There are no technical elements in the category of experience, given that the run-
ner does not have knowledge of chemistry, materials, or of product development.
2. The materialization of the idea may be achieved through a relation BtoC or
BtoB. In the first, the economic and material resources needed must be found in
order to develop the innovative project. In the second, the technical parameters
will transfer and the necessary intangible and tangible resources in order for the
company interested in the innovation form the technical object.
3. The acquisition of theoretical knowledge that allows for the development of the
hydrating ball will take too long, that is the reason why having elements in this
section are not taken into consideration and a decision is made to hire a special-
ized engineer in this field, which will be a technical element in the area of human
resources.
4. The technical element regarding raw materials is “polymer xy” The technical
characteristics desired are: edible, not dissolvable when in contact with water or
a current energizing drink in the market, not rigid, and not allowing for liquid
dripping out.
5. The economic characteristic that each technical element is the market price, at
the time of purchase or contract of services of such technical element.
6. The key and sub-key technical elements are identified with the usage analysis.
The analysis of use allows us to get the usage rupture, this happens in two parts:
the internal analysis and the external analysis. For the internal analysis, a “pie chart”
(Fig. 4.7) is used as a tool having as the objective to show in a clear and organized
way the various market segments that may be interested (Gaillard 2000, 202–203)
in obtaining the Technical Objects (TO) created. In the case of the hydrating ball, it
was mentioned that the materialization of the technical object could come about
through a relation BtoB or BtoC, for the latter we will consider the marathons as the
first segment and, triathlons as the second segment. Those considered as market one
will be the Mexico City Marathon, the marathon, and the Mike Run to mention three
Segment2
OT3 OT3 Market2
OT2
Segment1
BtoC Market1
Segment2
BtoB OT2
Market1 Market2
Segment1 Idea
OT1
Market3
OT1
Market2 Market1
Segment3
Market1
Market1
Fig. 4.7 Pie chart. (Source: Own elaboration)

examples. The markets for the second segment will be the Great Triathlon Pacifico -
Mazatlán and the Los Cabos Ironman.
Once the segments are identified in the Pie Chart and the possible interested
markets, it must be analyzed whether the technological rupture really meets the
need of each of the selected markets. In such way that when conducting the internal
analysis, the innovator will discover the slice of pie – segment, market – where the
defined need is covered.
In the second part to obtain the usage rupture, external analysis, the competition
is the primordial component. This analysis is carried out through two tools: the
buyer’s usefulness matrix (Kim and Mauborgne 2003a, b, 97–100) (Fig. 4.8) and
the technical object value chart regarding the competition (Kim and Mauborgne
2003a, b, 2–35) (Fig. 4.9). In this analysis we must know the usage rupture of the
innovative product or service of the competition and the behavior of it with regards
to the key elements and our technical objects. In such a way that, when comparing
both ruptures the technical elements which produce differentiation will be defined:
the key elements that generate not only the usage rupture, but also the technological
rupture. In the same way, being able to compete with existing products or services
involve the consideration of the key elements of our competition, with some sub-
key elements of our innovation.
With the Buyer Usefulness Matrix (Fig. 4.8) you can identify – as the name indi-
cates- the usefulness the customer gets of our technical object or of the competi-
tion’s products or services. We must point out that it refers to a technical object
because up to this stage of the process our product or service has not been material-
ized, and will select the products or services from the competition that meet a simi-
lar meet to the one defined with our own technical objects.
The location of each one of the technical objects created and the services or
products of the competition in the Buyer Usefulness Matrix, takes place when the
Purchase Delivery Use Compliments Maintenance Recycling

Customer
Productivity
Simplicity
Comfort
Risk
Pleasure and
image
Environmental
Awareness
Fig. 4.8 Buyer usefulness matrix. (Source: Own elaboration)

High PRODUCT
Competition 2
Dominion
Level
Competition 1
Low
price easy options quickness precision

to use
Key and sub-key elements of the technical object
Fig. 4.9 Technical Object Value Chart regarding the competition. (Source: Own elaboration)
way the customer receives the need is identified. Kim and Mauborgne (2003a, b),
100–104) consider that the buyer’s usefulness cycle is made up of six stages: pur-
chase, delivery, use, compliments, maintenance, and recycling. These stages are
located in the horizontal field of the matrix and cannot be modified; in the vertical
field the person or organization wishing to create an innovation will locate, for each
technical object and servicer or product from the competition, the key characteristic
which provides the usage rupture. If when locating the key characteristic of our
technical object in the matrix is found that it is located in the same quadrant as that
of the competition, then, a rupture is not being created. The reader must remember
that ruptures allow for the differentiation from the competition.
Part two of the usage analysis, has the technical object value chart in regard to the
competition (Fig. 4.9) (Kim and Mauborgne 2003a, b, 10–11). In contrast with the
previous tool, this time the behavior of the competition in function with the key and
sub-key characteristics of our technical object. This chart is a qualitative tool where
the innovator will provide value, considered according to the technological analysis
and the first stage of the external analysis. We must point out that the highest point
in the chart corresponds to the key characteristic which causes the usage rupture. As
with the previous matrix (Fig. 4.8) the peak does not correspond to what the innova-
tor considers a usage rupture; however, it’s necessary to return to the key elements
in the Technical Elements Table (Fig. 4.6) in order to restructure the technical ele-
ments of the technical object and achieve usage ruptures with them.
Once: (1) All the technical elements are identified with which the technical
objects are created and, (2) The need of the selected market is defined, we can begin
with the economic analysis in order to obtain, on one side, the strategic price for the
market product or service and, on the other, the economic indicators – Net Current
Value and the Returned Investment – that allow the profitability of the innovative
offer. The strategic price not only is a function of the cost of production, but also the
price the competition offers its product or service (Kim and Mauborgne 2003a, b,
106–117). The person or business interested in creating an innovation must consider
that the selected price will be that which will allow them to be competitive and
assure investment return on the innovative project.
In case that a technical object innovates a process within an organization, the
economic analysis is quantified with indicators that allow to compare the situation
with project (benefits to obtain with the technical object) of a situation without proj-
ect (current situation within the organization). In a way that, the economic evalua-
tion will allow them to know the feasibility of the innovative project in the
established – usage, technological – conditions in order to assure economic feasibil-
ity of the innovative offer.
4.4 Conclusions
When using various proposed tools, it becomes validated that the process of innova-
tion does not have a linear trajectory. An innovation is acquired through a constant
restructuring of characteristics and technical elements in order to cover the needs of
the selected market. The identification of technical characteristics that allow for
technological, usage, and economic ruptures permit the stabilization of the innova-
tion process.
The identification of the need that the technical object must meet is crucial in this
process, this is what lets us know the key characteristics that the innovation will
offer. With the market segment defined it is possible to identify the existing compe-
tition and, this specify sub-key characteristics of our technical object.
In the same way it is important to underscore that identifying the type of innova-
tion to generate, allows for the positioning of ruptures that must happen. The stabi-
lization of the innovation process can be achieved through technological, usage, and
economic ruptures. In order for this to take place, the following must be defined: the
technological requirements (technological rupture), the key characteristics that
meet the selected need of the market (usage rupture), and the strategic price by
which our project will be financially feasible (economic rupture).
References
J. Alcaide-Marzal, E. Tortajada-Esparza, Innovation assessment in traditional industries. A pro-

posal of aesthetic innovation indicators. Scientometrics 72(1), 33–57 (2007)
T. Benitez, “Technological innovation process for a biodegradable resealable packaging”, Digital
theses, National Autonomous University of Mexico, (2012)
E. Carayannis, E. Samara, Y. Bakouros, Innovation and Entrepreneurship. Theory, Policy and
Practice (Springer International Publishing Switzerland, Switzerland, 2015), p. 232
C.M. Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1997)
R. Cole, From continuous improvement to continuous innovation. Qual. Manag. J. 8(4), 7–21 (2001)
M. Colombo, C. Franzoni, R. Veugelers, Going radical: Producing and transferring disruptive
innovation. J. Technol. Transf. 40, 663–669 (2015)
P. Drucker, The Essential Drucker (Harper Collins Publishers, United Kingdom, UK, (2001), 349
P. Drucker, “The Discipline of Innovation”, New York, Harvard Business Review, 2013,
143–156 (2002)
J.M. Gaillard “Marketing et Gestion dans la Recherche et Developpement”, Ed. Economica, 2da.
edicion, 374 (2000)
A. Hargadon, R. Sutton, “Creer un laboratoire d innovation” en Les meilleures Articles de la
Harvard Business Review sur l innovation, Editions d’ Organisation, 65–93 (2003)
R. Henderson, K. Clark, Architectural innovation: The reconfiguration or existing. Adm. Sci.
Q. 35, 9–30 (1990)
M. Jung, Y. Lee, H. Lee, Classifying and prioritizing the success and failure factors of technology
commercialization of public R&D in South Korea: Using classification tree analysis. J Technol
Transfer 40, 877–898 (2015)
C. Kim, R. Mauborgne, “Creer un nouvel espace de marche”, en Les meilleures Articles de la
Harvard Business Review sur l innovation, Editions d’ Organisation, 2–35 (2003a)
C. Kim, R. Mauborgne, “Sachez reconnaitre une idee gagnante quand vous la rencontrez”, en Les
meilleures Articles de la Harvard Business Review sur l innovation Editions d’ Organization,
96–125 (2003b)
T. Lager, Developing a process innovation work process: The LKAB experience. Int. J. Innov.
Manag. 14(2), 285–306 (2010)
C. Markides, P. Geroski, Fast Second: How Smart Companies Bypass Radical Innovation to Enter
and Dominate New Markets (Wiley, 2005), pp. 208
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, “Oslo Manual: A Guide to Collecting
and Interpreting Data on Innovation”, Grupo Tragsa, (2005), pp. 188
B. Prax, Silberzahn 2005, 49; Manual de Oslo Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo
Económico (2005)
M. Porter, Competitive Advantage. Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance (The Free
Press, New York, 1998a)
M. Porter, Competitive Strategy. Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors (The Free
Press, New York, 1998b)
J. A. Schumpeter, “The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital,
Credits, Interest, and Business Cycle”, Transaction Publishers, (1934), pp. 255
E. Von Hippel, S. Thomke, M. Sonnack, “L innovation chez 3M”, en Les meilleures Articles de la
Harvard Business Review sur l innovation, Editions d’ Organization, 39–64 (2003)
J.M. Zabala-Iturriagagoitia, F. Jimenez-Saez, E. Castro-Martinez, A. Gutierrez-Gracia, What
indicators do (or do not) tell us about Regional Innovation Systems. Scientometrics 70(1),
85–106 (2007)
Chapter 5
Digraphs in the Analysis of Systems’
Representation of Mathematical
Knowledge
5.1 Representation of Mathematical Knowledge
Knowing how learners represent their mathematical knowledge is a problem that

can be addressed by a systemic perspective (Ackof and Sasieni 1984), in which the
elements of the system studied are mathematical concepts, the relationships are
between said concepts, and one of the main objectives of the system is to answer
and create arguments for mathematical questions. In this way, the system of repre-
sentation of mathematical knowledge can also be seen as a structural model (Harary
et al. 1965). The structural models are represented as digraphs in which the nodes
correspond to the mathematical concepts, and the edges represent the relationships
between the concepts. These types of digraphs were used in Balderas (1998) to
study the learning of basic concepts in an introductory course of differential calcu-
lus at a senior high school level. It was documented based on the mental process of
students when the teaching and learning were supported by representations of the
mathematical concepts generated by media such as notebooks, boards, and printed
materials (books and teaching guides), as well as some technological resources
(e.g., advanced calculators, personal computers) by the student and the teacher. This
approach formed cognitive processes related to visual reasoning (Zazkis et al. 1996;
section 2, p. 13).
The term visual reasoning describes the mathematical thinking aspects based on
or expressed in visual images (Zimmermann 1991, p. 127). The study of visual
reasoning began as a result of cognitive integration (Goldin and Kaput 1996) by two
or more representations of concepts. Therefore, the visual reasoning associated with
mathematical representations (symbolic or algebraic, charts, numeric, tabular) and
discursive (natural language) were analyzed. Hereafter, this is simply referred to as
P. E. Balderas-Cañas (*)
Mexico City, Mexico
e-mail: empatbal@unam.mx

82 P. E. Balderas-Cañas
study representations. The process of visualization is strongly related to visual rea-

soning due to the fact that the first supports the second when a learner creates or
uses diagrams, figures, or charts to answer, whether it is created on paper, computer,
or mentally. All this information places us in the representation of the problem—
concepts which are discussed in a particular context of the learning and teaching of
mathematics (for teaching targeted for the learner, see Light and Cox 2001).
We speak of a representation as the effect of a mapping between the real world
and the mental model (Palmer 1978, p. 276). To document part of the mental pro-
cesses of students, a focal question is knowing what type of conceptual images they
possess in regard to the associated representations. It is assumed that learning is
built by the double process between the actions of the learner and his or her concep-
tualizations. In other words, the mental actions model the conceptual images (con-
ceptualizations) and, inversely, the images limit the actions (Piaget, quoted by
Thompson 1994, p. 230).
This chapter discusses the methodology, using a systemic approach, for the study
of visual reasoning when learning mathematical concepts at the senior high school
level. The following questions are specifically addressed: How do students use
study representations? How do they organize these representations to produce an
answer in school situations?
5.2 Visual Reasoning
The study of the questions presented above, under natural conditions of develop-
ment (school learning), requires a holistic perspective of inquiry (Lincoln and Guba
1985; Keeves 1999) for the systemic building of a school reality, where the follow-
ing influences are recognized:
• The principles of the researcher and the selected paradigm in the presenting of
research questions and hypothesis of the work.
• The theoretical framework used in the recollection and analysis of data, research,
and interpretation of findings.
• The context, meaning, and students as elements of a specific social group or in a
study program, the teacher, and the material resources in the classroom, etc.
Regarding the reliability of qualitative studies is has generally agreed to illustrate
the claims and assertions by episodes’ samples (Atkinson, Delamont and
Hammersley 1988, Taylor and Boydan 1984, quoted by Cobb and Whitenack 1996,
p. 225). In addition, the following considerations contribute to the reasoning and
justification of the analysis:
• The set of information is systematically analyzed, proving temporary assump-
tions based on written responses at a primary analytical level. From that analysis,
protocols are designed to carry out interviews with the participants, which then
5 Digraphs in the Analysis of Systems’ Representation of Mathematical Knowledge 83
produce interpretations and initial assumptions; this instance accounts for an

empirical construction.
• An extended stay of the researcher with the study participants (Lincoln and Guba
1985) elevates the level of credibility of the analysis because the experience of
observing and interacting with the participants provides a first-hand source,
which allows a critical internalizing when trying to explain the activity (the phys-
ical exchange between representations).
• Critical input by researchers who are close to the study but not familiar with the
participants offers alternative interpretations of the assumptions.
The participants in this study were 16- to 18-year-old high school students in the
area of physics-mathematics.
To identify the central methodological aspects, some written answers are illus-
trated for the activities included in the teaching guide of Annex 1. The following
four points include the main objectives of the teaching materials:
(a) Guide the learning of derivatives based on discursive representations (D), charts
(G), numeric (N), symbolic or algebraic (S), and tabular (T) materials, where
the graphic and tabular representations were primarily generated by advanced
calculators.
(b) Document the physical links between the individual study representations,
without interaction between participants, to analyze the individual
representations.
(c) Inquire about the cognitive integration between two or more internal represen-
tations of the concepts, starting with the links that the student established within
the external representations.
In this specific way, the interest focused on seeing how participants used their
resources to represent mathematical ideas. Questions are presented in discursive
form, but in reference to another or other study representations; this situation
demands an understanding of the referred concepts and is represented in various
ways by the student (potential demand of representation, DR). Some questions ask
for explanations without specifying or conditioning the type of representation to be
used in order for the participant to decide which one or ones to use to answer. See
Balderas (1998, p. 78) for more details on the teaching guide structure.
An interpretative element consists of pointing out that the use of a certain repre-
sentation does not mean they do not possess other representations of a specific con-
cept. In fact, a hypothesis of work says that “the student possesses a mental
representation of each concept, which is externally expressed by one or more of the
socially acquired representations.”
Variables of the study were the connections between the discursive representa-
tions, graphics, numeric, symbolic, and tabular materials that students showed when
participating in learning activities, to bring an answer closer to the question regard-
ing how representations are used and how they are organized, and to come up with
an answer in the school environment. Thereafter, it was necessary to study the
conceptual organization of the student (regarding concepts and the relationships

that connect them).
Lastly, the main source of information was written answers. The validation was
made by a triangulation process through interviews, with protocols designed to
prove the interpretations that created the construction of categories presented in
Sect. 3.
5.3 epresentation Systems of Mathematical Knowledge

R
and Visual Reasoning
In learning and teaching mathematics, the use of representations forces us to reflect

about the difficulties of creating them and interpreting them, both for the learner as
well as the teacher.
From a cognitive perspective, the problem of defining a representation is very
complex. Targeted discussions may more closely find the root of the problem of
cognitive representation (Palmer 1978) to the problems discussed by various
researchers that focus on educational problems (Janvier 1987; Janvier et al. 1993;
Dubinsky 1991, etc.). The discussion of the concept of representations can be
located in the context specific to the classroom.
The human mind, although limited for processing and for working with memory
capacity, is very effective at handling ideas and extremely complex processes. This
power is based on the interaction between two sources of experience organizations:
the structures inherent to long-term knowledge and the ability to exploit physical
means of organizing the experience—in the case of mathematics, the notation
systems.
To make sense of the processes that involve mental structures and physical pro-
cesses, a language is needed that includes separate “records” for each experience, as
well as for the interactions between them.
Kaput pointed out two types of operations: those that are mental and hypothetic
in nature, and the physical ones that are frequently noticeable. Between both types
of operations, cyclical processes occur. Two events stand out from physical and
mental operations: one that establishes a deliberate and active interpretation (“read-
ing”) and the other that is less active, less consistently controlled, and less seriously
organized, which consists of having mental phenomena evoked by physical matter
(“evocations”).
On the reverse side, two processes take place: the act of projecting the mental
structure of the existing material and the act of producing new structures, called
“writing,” which includes the physical creation of existing structures (Thompson,
1994, p. 230) at a mental level. Those mental operations produce images or mental
models. Piaget distinguished three types of mental images; the distinctions that he
outlined were based on how, according to the image, the reasoning actions were
associated with it. The research analyzed here mentioned a type that is formed by
the actions and reasoning of quantitative relationships (Piaget 1967, quoted by

Thompson, ib., p. 230). The categorizing of Piaget originally was created to take
into account the stay of the object, but there may also be “insight” (internalization)
in the creation of mathematical objects by a person (Dubinsky 1991; Sfard 1991;
Thompson 1994). When the development of the imagination of a person stops at
this beginning level, it may lead to mathematical understandings that are internal-
ized patterns of actions (Boyd 1992, quoted by Thompson 1994, p. 230).
Due to the fact that mental images come from various sources, they tend to be
highly idiosyncratic. Therefore, the interpretations associated with each external
representation of the same concept differ from one person to the next, which is a
distinctive feature of the thinking style and the cognitive structure. According to
Palmer (1978), a representation is “a configuration of a class which (entirely or
partially) corresponds to, or is associated by reference with, symbolizes or other-
wise represents something.” The representation does not occur in isolation; rather, it
usually belongs to highly structured systems, personally, idiosyncratically, cultur-
ally, and conventionally. This is due, inevitably, to the interpreting act involved
between the representation and the represented—a fundamental consideration to
distinguish when the student’s answers depend more on the representation than on
the concept. For example, the charts that students created on personal computers
with a chart builder included identifying extreme values of one more function than
of the concept itself (Balderas 1992, pp. 22 and 88).
An assumption made by experts claims that internal representations may con-
nect, but that the connections between internal representations may be stimulated by
the building of connections between the corresponding external representations
(Hiebert and Carpenter 1992, p. 66). A conceptual organization of a student ana-
lyzed through conceptual maps accounts for the relationships between concepts.
These relationships are key elements for the understanding of visual reasoning
because they link or connect the various representations associated with the present
concepts in conceptual organization, which is, in turn, a product of reasoning.
The conceptualization of that derivative as a product of the historic development
of its physical, numeric, graphic, and symbolic representations has its genesis in the
instrumental use that pushes forth the formation of several abstract notations for
math concepts, as well as in the reflection about the meaning and transcendence of
the same. For Piaget and Garcia (1989; quoted by Kaput 1994a, p. 85), a state of
consciousness happens after a more or less long process, which allows a particular
notion, such as in the case of the derivative, to be made up in a fundamental concept.
The passage from the instrumental to the state of consciousness of Piaget regard-
ing the derivative shows four time periods that may be analyzed. The first corre-
sponds to the use of a notion to determine tangent and quadrature, before the work
of Newton and Leibniz. The second is when Newton and Leibniz built it, whereas
the third was a time of exploration and development in the eighteenth century. The
last period is when it was defined in the nineteenth century (Kaput 1994a, p. 86).
The first two time periods are of great importance, as representations were created
and evolved, as considered in this study.
The present research builds a representation of the system that a student pos-
sesses, which is made up of concepts and the relationships between them, with the
objective of coming up with an answer. It examines how some electronic media may
be used to represent ideas and mathematical processes (Kaput 1992, p. 516) and
how to evaluate efficiency or inefficiency of the same. Specifically, this includes the
quick and sequenced production of graphics, the deployment of tabular arrange-
ments organized according to the scales used in the corresponding axis, the possi-
bilities of processing data statistically associated with phenomena of variation, and
the programming ability for the systemic and productive reproduction of algorithms.
It is also important to point out the interactive ability1 of advanced calculators, in
contrast to inherent media such as blackboards, because they produce physical reac-
tions to the actions embarked on. For example, pressing the ZOOM key produces
effects over the graphic view; pressing the TRACE key moves the chart from one
function and shows additional information, such as the coordinates of the point
where the cursor is located (intermittent asterisk), which can move the chart accord-
ing to the indications of the user (user actions).
5.3.1 Visual Reasoning and Visualization
The processing of visual information in itself is a perception through the sense of

sight, considered to be a component of cognitive activity that organizes sensory data
originating from the exterior (Campos and Gaspar 1995a, p. 3). The appropriate
knowledge is the result of the interaction between the cognitive activity of an indi-
vidual and reality (Piaget 1970, quoted by Campos and Gaspar, id.).
With the study of visual processing, we want to answer questions regarding how
a student uses information to interpret, identify, and compare visual information
included in teaching materials or observed on the screens of advanced calculators,
in the school setting, in order to produce answers to questions presented.
The systems of visual processing transform initial visual stimulus into neuronal
impulses, which allow us to detect and remember some acts about the information
received. In addition, we can reduce information; in other words, we do not remem-
ber in detail all experiences coming from our senses. This reduction is probably a
necessary function for the system of visual processing. Nevertheless, it also pro-
duces information when completing details about the base of the information stored
in the memory. In addition to storing information and recovering it, it is also possi-
ble to hold onto that information, remember experiences and things, and use what is
known when needed.
The processing of propositions is more complicated. After the identification of
individual segments, we must remember letters in a certain order to determine
1
Kaput distinguished between inert and interactive media by the capacity of the latter to respond
physically to the “inputs” (1994b, p. 380).
words, then combine the meanings of words and use them in grammatical rules that
are saved in the memory to later understand what a proposition means. For example,
in “the problem” and assignments 16 and 17 (Annex 1), propositional information
is included and the student is asked to create a graphic that represents such
information.
It is possible that the student proceeds, in a sequential form, by first recognizing
the information included in the problem sentence, then by recognizing the proposi-
tional information. Simultaneously, the student may perform a comparison and
complete the previously learnt information (relationships between coordinates of
points and scales in coordinated axis) to produce answers to the actions: represent
and point out.
The visual reasoning seen as a cognitive process produces a certain conceptual
structure. Its organization makes the subject express or solve a problem a certain
way. Particularly, the written or verbal answer reflects in itself a part of the knowl-
edge of a subject with regard to one or many concepts. The term visual reasoning
describes the aspects of mathematical thinking that are based or may be expressed
with visual images (Zimmermann 1991, p. 127). However, if these visual images
are a product of geometrical reasoning, as idealized mental entities, then they are
completely subordinate to axiomatic limitations (Fischbein 1994, p. 242). In the
same way, a geometric shape is a mental object that cannot only be reduced to usual
concepts or images; neither is only a concept because they are also spatial represen-
tations. The presence of graphic and tabular representations, whether external or
internal, confirm the visual reasoning and conceptual of the student.
Knowledge acquires some organization as a result of cognitive activity (Campos
and Gaspar 1995a, p. 6), not taking into account the level, range, or focus of the
activity. The other organizations may be understood as: “complex constellations of
information units (significant theme items, or concepts) together with a variety of
logical links which connect concepts in a particular way” (id.).
A conceptual organization, at a certain point, may be studied according to the
analytical method proposed by Campos and Gaspar (id., p. 8, and transl.), which
they called the Model of Propositional Analysis (MAP). This model was built to:
“identify main ideas in a conceptual organization and the organization of the same,
according with their conceptual and logical contents” (id., translation).2
In this study, we analyzed conceptual organization in relation to the use of repre-
sentations generated in advanced calculators, related to a type of mental process
denominated visualization. For Moses (1982), visualization is how to “understand
the problem, plan an attack [strategy] and carry out that plan, and finally look back
and take in all the knowledge gained” (p. 61, translation).
The behavior of the student when solving problems is very individualized: “Each
student focuses on a given problem, with his/her resources, cognitive structure,
inclinations and cognitive styles.” (Moses, id.). From there, one can also question if
2
For a more comprehensive review of the propositional analysis model, see Campos and Gaspar
(1995a, b).
there is a general technique, or a way of thinking, that brings forth a better perfor-
mance when solving problems, which encourages students to not feel frustrated and
to continue. Moses proposed visualization as a way of thinking “and not only as a
problem-solving strategy” (id., p. 63, transl.), through which students may better
understand a problem once they get an image of the situation, when drawing the
situation or building a concrete model. In any case, they will have translated the
problem through a visual means to their own perspective.
In visual reasoning, a variety of actions are involved, such as feel, imagine, and
draw, as well as “dream, draw diagrams, sculpt, manipulate concrete objects, and
manipulate objects mentally with our eyes closed.” (id., transl.). Any person creates
visual thoughts to a certain degree for which “creative performance of the solution
of problems may become better encouraging the visual thought in classroom activi-
ties.” (id., transl.)
The role that diagrams, schemes, graphs or any other representation plays during
problem solving may be explained, regarding math visualization, as follows.
[I]n mathematical visualization, [the interest lies] precisely in the student’s ability to draw
an appropriate diagram (with pencil and paper or in some cases, with a computer) to repre-
sent a concept or math problem; and use the diagram to reach the understanding, and as an
assistance in problem resolution. In math, visualization is not an end in itself, but rather a
means to an end, which is the understanding. Notice that, typically, one does not speak
about visualizing a diagram, but about visualizing a concept or a problem. Visualizing a
diagram simply means to form a mental image of the diagram, but visualizing a problem
means understanding the problem in terms of a diagram or visual image. Mathematical
visualization is a process of forming images (mental, or with paper and pencil, or with the
help of technology) and use such images effectively for the discovery and math understand-
ing. (Zimmermann and Cunningham 1991, p. 3)
In mathematics, the process of visualizing is very frequent because it is a discipline

that refers to the abstract objectification and representation of facts from reality.
Many of them come to a greater or lesser extent of visual experiences, which range
from primitive (e.g., hand movement) to the conceptualization of a tangent to a
circle or a curve. Three examples of research related to visualization are men-
tioned next.
Presmeg (1986) found five types of visual imagery in his research: concrete or
pictured, of patterns, relative to formulas, kinesthetic, and dynamic. The first one
refers to mental paintings, the second to relations contained in a scheme with visual-
spatial references, the third to relationship evocations, the fourth includes the imagi-
nation of body movements, and the fifth to movement (imagining the trajectory of
water coming out of a hose). It also establishes that a visual method of solution is
one that involves visual imagination, with or without the presence of a diagram, as
an essential part of the solution method or of algebraic (or analytical) methods. The
grade of visualization is in charge of the number of visual procedures present in the
solution of the problem (Moses 1977, quoted by Bishop 1989, p. 11). Krutestkii
(1976) referred to the student’s “geometric type.” He felt the need to visually inter-
pret the expression in an abstract mathematical relationship. In this idea, the prefer-
ence for a student’s way of thinking stands out. Suwarsono (1982; quoted by Bishop
1989, p. 10) pointed out that the grade of visualization is high if the correct answer
is obtained and the reasoning is based on a diagram drawn by the student, or by a

visual image built by the student.
The particular quality of visualization, addressed in the research, is the ability of
the student to draw a diagram (with paper and pencil or on a computer), to represent
a mathematical concept or a problem, and then use it to acquire understanding or
help to solve a problem (Zimmermann 1991, p. 3). Mathematical visualization then
becomes a means and an end toward learning the solution of a problem. It is said
that a problem is visualized when the problem is understood in terms of a diagram
or present visual image, whether physically or mentally visual. Lastly, it is agreed
that a student carries out a visualization act when, for example, the student labels
points in the Cartesian plane or finds points in the same, physically or mentally. The
decision to choose certain points is an analytical act in the sense expressed by
Zazkis et al. (1996).
5.4 nalysis of Systems of Representation

A
of Math Knowledge
The study of visual reasoning in question was formed based on the conceptual orga-
nization of the student associated with a teaching process, in the case of learning the
derivative conducted by learning material and designed to solve assignments with
an advanced calculator (Annex 1). In this study, discursive representations (text),
graphics, numeric and symbolic (algebraic) information, and tables (arranged with
double entrance) were used for the concepts of rate of change, instant rate of change,
velocity, secant, tangent, and curve direction, among others. Such representations
were presented in printed materials (handouts) by the researcher as well as by the
student. In advanced calculators, the student generated numeric, graphical, and tab-
ular results to provide answers to various questions formulated in teaching materials
(Annex 1) and in interviews (Annex 2), which were designed to inquire about the
connections between the mentioned representations.
A working hypothesis that guided the current research can be summarized in the
following concept: “Never forget that a particular action is a personification or an
illustration of a general relation, only for those who cognitively [speaking] already
have that relation. For those who are not like that, it is merely another action.”
(Kaput 1994b, p. 394).
Another objective of the study consisted of affirming that the advanced calcula-
tor allows the student to have experiences to build conceptual and procedural knowl-
edge, in regards to the derivative. It was also taken into account that: “for any given
topic, anybody has an idea, some description, even, an explanation by itself, obtained
through cultural processes and social interaction.” (Campos and Gaspar 1995a,
p. 8). When analyzing the data, the following was considered:
The mediation mechanisms are better defined as cognitive structures that are coded in lan-
guage only partially and, frequently, work at the level of tacit knowledge ... It is important
to highlight that when we think of a generalization in this way, the diversity of the school
environments becomes a gain, not a loss: when diversity is drastic, the subject faces all
types of novelties which stimulate its adaptation; as a consequence, the cognitive structures
of the subject integrate more and become more different. Once the novelty is faced and
adapted, the subject has a richer perception, and supposedly, acts more intelligently.
(Donmoyer 1992, p. 8)
An additional hypothesis of the work assumed that the students have vast scheme
repertoires, and the integration between conceptual images of two or more represen-
tations is encouraged. Therefore, the cognitive integration (Goldin and Kaput 1996)
was analyzed by two or more mental representations of the concepts, in a differenti-
ated manner, beginning with the verification of their presence.
An enriched conception of cognitive integration (IC) allowed us to obtain an
understanding of that process in such a way that it was possible to discover different
aspects or different angles of the same process. Therefore, in agreement with
Donmoyer (opacity. p. 81), questions were presented about the kind of IC. Studying
the process of IC required medially natural data, meaning descriptions with low
levels of inferences about the performance of the student and extracts of interview
transcripts.
The observation of the physical correspondence between two or more represen-
tations of the involved concepts in the study, in which students applied and inter-
preted, took us to the analysis of IC by written and oral answers. Regarding the
written answers and in the first level of analysis, the conceptual organization was
studied through MAP; here, the main ideas were identified in each conceptual orga-
nization, the organization by itself, and its conceptual and logical content (id, p. 10).
The presence and organization of concepts and relationships included in the
answers according to MAP were detected. First of all, the linguistic components3 of
the written answers were identified; those that corresponded to concepts and rela-
tions were preserved. Upon a first reading of the answers, protocols for the inter-
views were set in place; in their transcripts, the concepts and relations were also
identified.
Secondly, the physical correspondences were analyzed between representations
used by the participants in the item answers of the materials and protocols, with the
purpose of providing an account of the cognitive integration between the corre-
sponding mental images. The graphic components of the representations and cogni-
tive processes in math learning, in addition to the semantic and syntactic analysis of
the common and symbolic language, also required an analysis of visual reasoning.
This last analysis took place through written manifestations (text, graphic, sym-
bolic, and tabular) that occurred at an external level, in written answers as well as in
interviews.
In the third level of the analysis, the conceptual content of the answer was com-
pared with the conceptual expectations for each item, with the purpose of contextu-
alizing the answer. Tables 5.1 and 5.2 show a summary of the levels and stages of
the analysis.
3
Concepts and relationships as nouns and verbal forms, principally.
Table 5.1 Data organization from written answers

Level Number Stage
Conceptual 1. First analytical reading of the written answers
2. Codification in concepts, relationships, modifiers, connectives, and
other components of the answer
Organization 3. Categorization of proposals, concepts, and relationships (see columns
2, 3, and 4 of Chart 1, Annex 2)
4. Propositional mapping (see Fig. 5.2)
Representation 5. Codification of representations that the participant uses for concepts
and connections between them (see columns 5 and 6)
6. Configuration of each answer relative to the representations and
connections being studied (Fig. 5.1)
7. Comparison between the potential demand of representations of the
item and the representations used by the participant
Content 8. Conceptual content of the answer
Source: Own elaboration
Table 5.2 Data organization from interviews

Level Number Stage
Conceptual 1. Transcription of interview (see Chart 2, Annex 2)
2. Selection of participant interventions
Organization 3. Codification of concepts, relationships, modifiers, connectives, and
other components of the answer
4. Categorization of proposals, concepts, and relationships (see columns
2, 3, and 4 of Chart 3, Annex 2)
5. Propositional mapping
Representation 6. Codification of representations that the participant uses for concepts
and connections between them (see columns 5 and 6, Chart 3, Annex
2)
7. Configuration of each answer relative to the representations and
connections being studied (corresponding digraph)
8. Comparison between the potential demand of representations of the
item and the representations used by the participant
Content 9. Conceptual content of the answer
5.4.1 Categories
To document the physical correspondence between the representations being stud-

ied, the representations of the concepts that each participant used were coded for
one of the categories: D (common language or text), G (Cartesian chart), N (in terms
of arithmetic quantities and operations), S (in terms of algebraic language), and T
(numeric arrangements of two or more entries). In this stage, the building of the
category4 was given a concept represented by X, which alludes to the representation

Y”, denoted by X → Y. This is a bidimensional connection in the sense that it is
established for two representations5 X and Y, and two of the five representations D,
G, N, S or T, but different; therefore, theoretically, there are 20 possible bidimen-
sional connections.
Code X → Y was used for the representations of concepts according to the type
of representation X that was used by the student for his or her answer to the item and
for the indirect reference made to the other representation Y. The context that
allowed the determination of the type of representation and the reference to another
was the teaching material and the participant’s actions with such material and with
the calculator. The code X → Y by itself accounts for the connection between two
representations and can be used as a base for the coding of connections. The set
R = {D, G, N, S, T} of representations being studied is considered to be a set of
points. The set of bidimensional connections is a set of “edges.” or “lines” that go
from one point to the next, the configurations obtained for each item’s answer can
be represented as digraphs.6
Such configuration is a digraph, which is defined as two finite sets (representa-
tions and connections) for which there are two functions in the set of connections.
The range is included in R, which defines the starting point X and the ending point
Y in connection X → Y. The common notation (X, Y) is not used for the bidimen-
sional connection because X → Y is a closer notation to the empirical reference.
The axioms that meet the digraphs are as follows:
A1: Set R is finite and not empty.
A2: The bidimensional connections set is finite.
A3: There are no different bidimensional connections with the same starting and
ending points; there are no parallel lines.
A4: There are no connections within the same point; in other words, there are
no loops.
Certain features of digraphs allow the description of the representative structure
of the participants. Three particularly interesting features are complete configura-
tions, entirely disconnected and transitive (Harary et al. 1965, p. 12). The first one
means there is at least one bidimensional connection between any pair of represen-
tations. The second indicates that the participant’s answer does not include bidimen-
sional connections. The third provides information about the jumps between
bidimensional connections, when these are analyzed in relation to the sequence in
the answer.
A rationale for the use of digraphs to represent configurations between bidimen-
sional connections is as follows: the patterns of relationships between pairs of rep-
resentations are studied; in that sense, they “may serve as a mathematical model of
4
This sense of dimensional term does not refer to the mathematical connotation.
5
Suggested term by G. P’olya (Harary et al. 1965, p. 2)
6
Suggested term by G. P`olya (Harary, et. al. 1965, p.2)
the structural properties of [an] empirical system about relations between element
pairs.” (id. P. 2). For example, with the adjacency matrixes of digraphs, line spacing
is generated and can show which one is the base connection that each participant
showed in his or her answers. An interpretation of digraphs generated by the con-
figurations of bidimensional connections lies in the coordination between empirical
elements, “concepts represented in one form” and “relations or references between
two representations”, and their points R = {D, G, N, S, T} and the directed edges
(arrows).
The third category is made up of tridimensional connections represented by an
arrangement of three different letters, from among D, G, N, S, and T, in the shaded
regions of Fig. 5.1. The order is not significant and denotes the presence of a rela-
tionship r between two concepts represented in any of the following possibilities:
X → Y r X → Z or X → Y r Y → Z or X → Y r Z → Y
Ten tridimensional connections were documented in Balderas (1998): DGN,

DGS, DGT, DNS, DNT, DST, GNS, GNT, GST, and NST.
Both bidimensional as well as tridimensional connections allow for indirect
inquiry about the cognitive integration that the participant made between the studied
representations. In each written answer, a propositional map was created, such as in
the case of Fig. 5.2, in which concepts were identified as relationships and
propositions.
Concepts belonging to two or more propositions, called nuclear concepts

(Campos and Gaspar 1995a), were identified in shaded areas of the corresponding
figure. Associated with each propositional map, the sequence of concepts that gen-
erated a sequence of representation was identified, which informed how much of the
potential demand of representation was reflected, in which proportion each repre-
sentation was used, and which types of bidimensional connections were identified
in such answer (Fig. 5.3).
a b MA D G N S T
D D 0 1 0 1 0
G 0 0 0 0 0
T G N 0 0 0 1 1
S 0 1 0 0 1
S N T 0 0 0 0 0
Tridimensional connections: DSG, DSN, SNT Adjacency matrix MA
Fig. 5.1 Digraph for a configuration of bidimensional and tridimensional connections and the
adjacency matrix (MA) for bidimensional connections. (a) Tridimensional connections of DSG,
DSN, SNT. (b) Adjacency matrix (MA). (Sources: Balderas 1998 and prepared by the author)
Fig. 5.2 Propositional map of Rocky’s written answer to item 2.4.1. (Source: Balderas 1998)
Representations
T
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Sequence
Fig. 5.3 Sequence of representations in one answer to item 2.4.1. (Source: Balderas 1998)
The sequencing charts of representations and bidimensional connections for

each item and participant facilitated the analysis of the three previous questions.
In the horizontal axis, the sequence of concepts included in the written answers
according to the order of appearance was recorded. In the vertical axis, the represen-
tations being studied were recorded, in alphabetical order, to facilitate the compari-
son of the sequence of the participants. Noted with a small square was the
representation X that the student used for a concept. A circle indicates the represen-
tation Y that alluded to another or the same concept, but was represented differently.
In this way, we were able to identify a sequence of bidimensional connections
X → Y, in each answer.
Fig. 5.4 Grid
The data organization was made according to the stages listed in Tables 5.1 and
5.2. At the end of the first four stages, matrix arrangements were prepared, as shown
in the first four columns of Chart 2 (see Annex 2) and the corresponding maps.
Finally, the student interventions were selected from the interview transcriptions
(excerpts) and the written answers were similarly analyzed. For example, the inter-
view’s excerpt was codified as illustrated in Fig. 5.4. Then, the corresponding matrix
arrangement was built, resulting from the selection of a participant’s interventions
(codified with letter A), and the first four stages of the first analysis level were devel-
oped (Table 5.2). The data thus obtained was used to compare the written answers,
becoming an important interpretation framework for the study (see Annex 2).
5.5 Conclusions
This chapter presented an analysis method for the study of the representation sys-
tems of the mathematical knowledge acquired through problem-solving activities,
based on visual reasoning and use of calculators with advanced capabilities by high
school students. This method allowed us to show that the variations in the use of
representations D, G, N, S, and T were determined by the relationships between the
concepts even more so than by the concepts themselves.
Participants responded mainly with discursive representations. In the case of
algorithms, they proceeded correctly with symbolic representations, which con-
nected to discursive and numeric representations. They scarcely connected the sym-
bolic with the graphic and the symbolic with the tabular representations, on both the
written answers and answers obtained during the interviews. Connections were not
found between the graphic and tabular representations.
In general terms, participants met the potential demand of representations (DR),
which indicated they interpreted the information included in the items and pro-
duced answers based on the representations included in them. Such fact was an
indication that the studied representations D, G, N, S, and T were available in the
participants—this is to say, they were part of their resources, even though they did
not always form representation systems that are strongly connected, which made
the passing from one representation to the other more difficult and the communica-
tion of ideas turned ambiguous. Therefore, a discrepancy among the used represen-
tations in the instruments and the ones the student used to answer was not
considered. The representation systems used by the participants were modeled
through digraphs, which turned out to be very complete, entirely disconnected, and
transitive, which indicated solid representation systems that were weak and idio-
syncratic. In fact, the participant’s answers to problem 2.2 showed their decision to
label points, which was considered a visualization act; their decision to choose
certain points when explaining their answers was an analysis act in the sense of
Zazkis (opacity. p. 22).
The matter presented in Annex 1 was initially interpreted as a graphic situation
by all participants with some details; so, in this item, representation G was available
as part of the tacit knowledge (Campos and Gaspar 1995a, p. 3) and was associated
with the concepts that the sentence has. However, only one participant discussed the
situation in speed terms and two made reference to gravity. Coincidences in the
forms of representation of water flow thorough a hose were not part of group inter-
action, as reported in Balderas (2011); instead, it was explained from cultural
aspects of students.
By comparing the line spacing of each adjacency matrix, it is inferred that Diana
and Mirell had a base with more connections than Viridiana, regarding item 2.4.1,
whereas Omega, Fernando, and Rocky had a better base than Rafael.
5.5.1 Pedagogic Implications and Recommendations
The results of the analyzed investigation indicate the need to use symbolic represen-
tations in learning materials, with links among the discursive and numeric represen-
tations, to help students incorporate the use of symbolic representations to express
ideas. The learning material by itself should use symbolic representations related to
the discursive and numeric representations of the same concepts. The didactic dis-
course included in the learning materials should promote relationship building
among the concepts represented in a wide variety for the students to have solid
representation systems.
Annex 1: Extract of the Teaching Guide
Path of Water Flow Coming Out from a Hose7

Background
In different inhabited places, it is quite common to see people use hoses to water
plants or trees in parks and gardens. The constant and free water flow (the same
quantity and without obstructing with fingers or valve) forms a jet of water.
Henceforward, through activities and questionnaires, you will be studying the
path that the water follows once it comes out of a hose—in other words, the form of
the jet of water. It is very important that you explain both procedures and answers
thoroughly. You are free to use drawings, graphs, and words in your explanations.
Assignment: 15. On the back of this paper, make a drawing that represents the
previous matter.
Path Direction
The Problem
Which path should the water take when coming out of the hose so the jet gets to the
base of a tree that is 2 meters away from where the water is coming out (measured
by the floor), which is 1 meter high from the floor?
Assignments:
16. Illustrate the conditions of the problem in a diagram (to do this, use the back of
the page).
17. Now, represent the conditions of the problem on a Cartesian Plane; to do this,
use the following grid. Also mark:
(a) The coordinates of points S and A, corresponding to where the water is
coming out (S) and the tree’s base (A), and
(b) The direction of the water when coming out of the hose.
Answer the three following questions on the back of this page.
2.2.1 Which direction does the jet of water follow when coming out freely?
2.2.2 What is its mathematical model?
2.2.3 Is there only one possible path for the jet of water?
18. If your answer to question 2.2.3 is NO, on your graphic screen of your calcula-
tor create three different path examples passing through points S and A, and
answer questions 2.2.4, 2.2.5, and 2.2.6.
7
Part 2, taken from Balderas, P. (1998).
2.2.4 What is the mathematical model of each path? Answer:

2.2.5 What range vision (or window) did you use in assignment 18? Answer:
2.2.6 What direction does each path have when coming out? Answer:
2.2.7 Therefore, what is your answer to the problem stated on page 23? Answer:
2.3 Only one path
Write the answers to questions 2.3.1 and 2.3.2 on the back of this page.
2.3.1 What restriction or condition to the situation do you propose so the jet of
water follows a particular path?
2.3.2 What direction does the water have on point A (base of tree) with regard to
that particular path?
2.4 Water speed
Answer questions 2.4.1 and 2.4.2 in the space below on this page.
2.4.1 What speed does the water have when getting to the base of the tree in the
particular path of question 2.3.1?
2.4.2 What relationship does the path direction and the water speed have on
point A?
Annex 2 (Figs. 5.5, 5.6, 5.7, 5.8, and 5.9)
Two-dimensional Tridimensional Total Connections per

Item Proposal concepts Relationships
Connections Connections Item
C1: speed R1: of the D
C2: water R2: goes 1. D→S
C3: increase 2. D→G DSG T G
2.4.1 P1 R3: this means
C1: speed 3. D→S DSG
R4: goes
R5: to be 4. D→S
C4: greater S N
C2: water 5. D→G

R6: gets 6. D→G
C5: highest point
R7: of 7. D→G
C6: parabola
P2 R8: is
C7: 1 8. N→S
R9: falls
C8: gravity 9. D→S DNS
C1: speed 10. D→S
R10: goes
C3: growth (increase) 11. D→S
P3 C9: point R11: is 12. D→G
C7: 1 13. N→S
P4 C5: highest point 14. D→G
R12: is
C10: 0 15. N→S
P5 R13: is
C7: 1 16. N→S
C1: speed 17. D→S
P6 R14: increase DSG
C11: lapse 18. D→G
Fig. 5.5 Chart 1. Rocky's codified answer in proposals, concepts, relationships, and connections.
(Source: Balderas, P. (1998))
Simultaneous
Cod. Part. Content Annotations
Intervention
1.8.9, what is the answer you propose
189Ro01 /
for 1.8.9?
189Ro02 A The slope gets closer to 8...

[read his/her written
answer]
Uh-huh! Here’s the conclusion, how is
189Ro03 /
it that you know? How do you get it?
189Ro04 A Mmm
189Ro05 / You go back to your page 19 [from the guide, story]
189Ro06 A it says that the slope gets closer to 8
Yes, how do you know?, are you

189Ro07 /
looking at your table 4?
A al 8
It is assumed that here is point 1, 12
189Ro08 A right? oh no, its here, right?, here is
zero x is 1 and here is 2, then in that
/ uh-huh!
/ yes
point the slope will be 8
189Ro09 / How do you know that that’s 8?
iAh!, because by looking at it we can / yes .

189Ro10 A see that going up the slope is 8.04 / mmhu.
and going down is 7.96 / mmhu
189Ro11 / uh-huh! and then...
189Ro12 A Then this.. on that point between

those two is 8
Ok, you propose the 8 very good,
189Ro13 / this... in the item.., it them tells you on
1.8.10 ..., what is your answer?
Fig. 5.6 Chart 2. Excerpt from interviewing Rocky corresponding to item 1.8.9. (Source: Balderas,
P. (1998))
Reference Two-dimensional Tridimensional

Code Prop. Concepts Relationships Connections Connections
C1: slope 1. D→S
189Ro02 P1 R1: gets close to DNS
C2: 8 2. N→T, N→S
R2: it is assumed
189Ro08 P2 C3: here [x2,y2] R3: is 3. D→T DST
C4: point 1,12 4. S→T
C5: here [h]
R4: is 5. S→T NST
C6: zero
6. N→T
C7: x 7. S
R5: is
C8: 1 R6: y (and) 8. N→S DNS
C9: here [x] 9. D→S DNS
189Ro08 P3 R7: is
C10: 2 10. N→T, N→S
R8: then
C4: point [1,12] R9: in 11. D→T
C1: slope 12. D→S
R10: is going to be 13. N→T, N→S DNS
C2: 8
C11: by looking
R11: we see 14. D
C12: up
15. D→T
C1: slope R12: is 16. D→S DNS
C13: 8.04 17. N→T, N→S DNT
R13: y (and)
C14: down R14: is 18. D→T
189Ro10 P4 DNT
C15: 7.96 R15: then 19. N→T, N→S
R16: in DNT
C4: point [1,12] 20. D→T DST
R17: between 21. D→S
C16: two [values] DNS
R18: is 22. N→T, N→S
C2: 8
Fig. 5.7 Chart 3. Rocky’s answer emitted during the codified interview in proposals, concepts,
relationships, and connections. (Source: Balderas, P. (1998))
Fig. 5.8 Chart 4. Graphs by group of the sequences of the representations showed on the written
answers. (Source: Balderas, P. (1998) and prepared by the author)
ITEM Diana Viridiana Mirell Omega Fernando Rafael Rocky
D D D D D D D
2.4.1 T G T G T G T G T G T G T G
S N S N S N S N S N S N S N
Co. DNS, DSG DNS, DSG

DNS, DSG NSG DNS, DSG
Tri NSG NSG
D→S D→S
D→S D→S
(NR) N→S N→S
MA D G N S T MA D G N S T MA D G N MA D G N S MA D G N S MA D G N S T MA D G N S
D 0 1 0 1 0 D 0 0 0 1 0 D 0 1 0 D 0 1 0 1 D 0 0 0 0 D 0 0 0 0 0 D 0 1 0 1
MA
G 0 0 0 0 0 G 0 0 0 0 0 G 0 0 0 G 0 0 0 0 G 0 0 0 0 G 0 0 0 0 0 G 0 0 0 0
N 0 1 0 1 0 N 0 0 0 1 0 N 0 1 0 N 0 0 0 1 N 0 0 0 1 N 0 1 0 1 0 N 0 0 0 1
S 0 1 0 0 0 S 0 0 0 0 0 S 0 1 0 S 0 0 0 0 S 0 1 0 0 S 0 0 0 0 0 S 0 0 0 0
T 0 0 0 0 0 T 0 0 0 0 0 T 0 0 0 T 0 0 0 0 T 0 0 0 0 T 0 0 0 0 0 T 0 0 0 0
Fig. 5.9 Chart 5. Two-dimensional and tridimensional connections (Co. Tri.), found in the partici-
pants’ written answers. (Source: Balderas, P. (1998) and prepared by the author)
R. Ackof, M. Sasieni, Fundamentos de Investigación de Operationes (LIMUSA, México, 1984)., 6a

P. Balderas, Adquisición de conceptos de cálculo con apoyo de la graficación en microcomputa-
dora Tesis maestría. México, UACPYP-CCH UNAM (1992)
P. Balderas, La representatión y el razonamiento visual en la enseñanza de la matemática. Tesis
doctoral, Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (1998)
P. Balderas, Modelación de las representaciones matemáticas generadas por la interacción en
pequeños grupos, En Ingeniería de Sistemas. Investigación e Intervención, P. Balderas, y
G. Sánchez, (coords.) (Facultad de Ingeniería – Plaza y Valdés, México), pp. 67–92. ISBN:
978-607-402-394-7 (Plaza y Valdés), 978-607- 02-2408-9 (UNAM) (2011)
A. Bishop, Review of research on visualization in mathematics. Focus on learning problems in
mathematics, (11), 1, Winter, pp. 7–16 (1989)
M.A. Campos, S. Gaspar, The propositional analysis model: A concept- link approach to text-
based knowledge organization analysis. Reportes de investigación. México, IIMAS-UNAM,
(5), 46, junio (1995a)
M.A. Campos, S. Gaspar, The propositional analysis model: Semantic analysis of correspondence
in knowledge construction. Reportes de investigación. México, IIMAS-UNAM, (5), 49, octu-
bre (1995b)
P. Cobb, J. Whitenack, A method for conducting longitudinal analyses of classroom videorecord-
ings and transcripts, educational studies in mathematics, (30), 3, abril (1996)
R. Donmoyer, Argumentos para la investigacióon de estudios de caso: redefinición de conceptos
de validez interna y externa, En Investigación Etnográfica en Educación, eds. by M. Rueda,
M.A. Campos. UNAM, pp. 65–86 (1992)
E. Dubinsky, Reflective Abstraction in Advanced Mathematical Thinking. En D. Tall (ed.)
Advanced Mathematic Thinking (Dordrecht, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1991) p. 95-123.
Fischbein, The Interaction between the Formal, the Algorithmic, and the Intuitive Components
in a Mathematical Activity. En R. Biehler, R. W. Scholz, R. Sträber, B. Winkelmann (eds.)
Didactics of Mathematics as a Scientific Discipline, Dordrecht, Kluwer Academic Publishers,
p. 231–245 (1994)
G. Goldin, J. Kaput, A joint perspective on the idea of representation in learning and doing math-
ematics, in Theories of Mathematical Learning, ed. by L. Steffe et al., (Lawrence Erlbaum
Associates, Hillsdale, 1996), pp. 397–430
F. Harary, R. Norman, D. Cartwright, Structural Models: An Introduction to the Theory of Directed

Graphs (Wiley, New York, 1965), p. 415
J. Hiebert, T. Carpenter, Learning and teaching with understanding, in Handbook of Research
on Mathematics Teaching and Learning, ed. by D. A. Grouws, (NCTM, New York, 1992),
pp. 65–97
C. Janvier, Translation processes in mathematics education, in Problems of Representation in the
Teaching and Learning of Mathematics, ed. by C. Janvier, (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates,
Publishers, Hillsdale, 1987), pp. 27–32
C. Janvier, C. Girardon, J. Morand, Mathematical symbols and representations, in Research Ideas
for the Classroom: High School Mathematics, ed. by P. S. Wilson, (Macmillan, New York,
1993), pp. 79–102
J. Kaput, Technology and mathematics education, in Handbook of Research on Mathematics
Teaching and Learning, ed. by D. A. Grouws, (NCTM, New York, 1992), pp. 515–556
J. Kaput, Democratizing access to calculus: New routes to old roots, in Mathematical Thinking and
Problem Solving, ed. by A. Schoenfeld, (Lawrence Erbaum Associates, Publishers, Hillsdale,
1994a), pp. 77–156
J. Kaput, The representational roles of technology in connecting mathematics with authentic expe-
rience, in Didactics of Mathematics as a Scientific Discipline, ed. by R. Biehler, R. W. Scholz,
R. Sträβer, B. Winkelmann, (Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1994b), pp. 379–397
J. Keeves, Overview of issues in educational research, in Issues in Educational Research, ed. by
J. Keevs, G. Lakomski, (Pergamon, The Netherlands, 1999)
V.A. Krutestkii, in The Psychology of Mathematical Abilities in Schoolchildren, eds. by T. Joan
Teller (trad.), J. Kilpatrick, Y. Wirszup (The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1976)
G. Light, R. Cox, Learning and Teaching in Higher Education (Paul Chapman Publishing,
London, 2001)
Y. Lincoln, E. Guba, Naturalistic inquiry (Sage Publications, Newbury Park, 1985), p. 416
B. Moses, Visualization: A problem-solving approach. Math Monograph, 7, April,
pp. 61–66 (1982).
S.E. Palmer, Fundamental aspects of cognitive representation, in Cognition and Categorization,
ed. by E. Rosch, B. Lloyd, (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Publishers, Hillsdale, 1978),
pp. 259–303
N. Presmeg, Visualization and mathematical giftedness. Educ. Stud. Math. 17(3), 297–311 (1986)
A. Sfard, On the dual nature of mathematical conceptions: Reflections on processes and objects as
different sides of the same coin. Educ. Stud. Math. 22, 1 (1991)., Springer.
P. Thompson, Images of rate and operational understanding of the fundamental theorem of calcu-
lus. Educ. Stud. Math. 26, 2–3 (1994)
R. Zazkis, E. Dubinsky, J. Dautermann, Coordinating visual and analytic strategies: a study of
students’ understanding of the group D4. J. Res. Math. Educ. 27(4), 435–457 (1996)
W. Zimmermann, Visual thinking in calculus, in Visualization in Teaching and Learning of
Mathematics, ed. by W. Zimmermann, S. Cunningham, (Washington, The Mathematical
Association Of America, 1991), pp. 127–137
W. Zimmermann, S. Cunningham (eds.) Visualization in Teaching and Learning Mathematics,
Washington: The Mathematical Association of America (1991)
Part II
Techniques
Introduction
In the sixth chapter a modeling process is presented that allows us to make decisions
using optimization multi-criteria and the location of parks from the selection of a set
of green areas conducive, in urban areas such as Mexico City. This modeling pro-
cess consists of steps ranging from the structuring of the problem to the use of a
procedure that interfaces between a Geographic information system (GIS) and
multi-criteria optimization model of discrete location. By using this procedure,
results are obtained for locating parks.
The principal aim of the seventh chapter is to show a network location services
model for a specific problem, which has originally been formulated with just one
objective. The multi-objective strategy has been useful in situations where there is
more than one objective and where in many cases they may be contradictory. Such
approach does not consider interdependence among each other. Multi-level pro-
gramming, on the other hand, does take it into consideration, which allows for a
hierarchical organization of the objectives and the consideration of relationships
among them.
Finally, in the eighth chapter, an alternative to determinate the demand for the
inventory control by ussing fuzzy sets for its calculation under uncertainty is shown,
and in this way, the subjective knowledge and administrative experience is incorpo-
rated in its determination.
104 Part II Techniques
Chapter 6
Decision-Making with Multicriteria
Optimization and GIS for Park Locations
Mayra Elizondo-Cortés and Adela Jiménez-Montero
6.1 The Problem of Park Locations in Mexico City
Urban planning and renovation have a very important role in increasing the quality
of life of citizens. Green places, such as parks, represent an essential element for
quality of life in urban zones. It has been demonstrated that parks generate great
social, environmental, economic, and health benefits for urban populations
(Sorensen et al. 1998; Nowak et al. 1997; Chiesura 2004; Grace et al. 2008).
In Mexico City (also known as the Federal District in Mexico), overpopulation
and limited open space complicate the construction of parks to meet international
standards of 9 m2 of green area per inhabitant, as a sustainability and welfare param-
eter of urban spaces. Additionally, the World Health Organization (WHO) suggests
that parks are located near housing, so residents can walk there within 15 minutes.
Fortunately, Mexico City’s government and the Environment Department (Secretaría
del Medio Ambiente, SMA) have shown interest in preserving and increasing spaces
that contribute to society’s welfare. Therefore, the Environment Law of the Federal
District, published in the Official Gazette of the Federal District, has set regulations
that regulate and promote urban parks.
Decision-making processes for urban planning and renovation are complex
because of the number and types of factors that are involved. The relationships
between these factors are generally not linear. The location of public spaces, such as
parks, is a complex problem because several criteria are used to determine whether
a space is suitable to become a park (Salazar and Garćıa 2005, 299–300), even when
it is planned for very developed cities, such as Mexico City. Deciding where to
locate a park is not a simple task because there are many conflicts of interest.
Unfortunately, this decision may be based on an analyst’s subjective perception of
M. Elizondo-Cortés (*) · A. Jiménez-Montero

Mexico City, Mexico
e-mail: mayra.elizondo@comunidad.unam.mx

106 M. Elizondo-Cortés and A. Jiménez-Montero
certain variables, giving importance to the required investment. There are some cri-
teria that, if considered together, could strike a balance between a necessary invest-
ment and benefits, but this is not commonly done; it is rarely considered that a
proper park location determines whether or not a population will receive benefits
proportionated by these spaces. A poor analysis of a park location can result in
inhabitants not visiting it because of a lack of accessibility or security, thus missing
out on the resources. Therefore, it is important to perform a careful analysis for
locating parks as a strategic planning activity, considering the existence of an a
priori assumption, the cost of providing a service to inhabitants when locating and
then building the park to fulfill international standards, and the costs resulting from
a bad location decision. It is necessary to provide acceptable solutions and support
authorities in making decisions on park locations. A systemic view of economic,
cultural, social, and environmental factors could create successful policies to
improve the quality of life in urban areas, but this situation makes such processes
very complex (Baycan-Levent et al. 2009, 219–239; Neema and Ohgai 2010).
6.2 Modeling Process for Park Locations
In real life, there are often circumstances that add complexity to a problem; for
example, objectives may not be clear, definitions for different elements of the prob-
lem may be ambiguous, assumptions that have to be made can be inaccurate, the
necessary logic structure may not be well-understood, there may be a great scope of
action on what it is possible to do, or it may not be known if a solution really exists,
among others. When these circumstances arise, the problem is poorly structured.
Strategic problems, as well as service location problems, frequently are character-
ized by these circumstances, as well as great uncertainty in results. It is considered
very risky if things go wrong; furthermore, the circumstance may occur in a highly
dynamic environment (Pidd 1996).
Modeling is the process of developing and using models to understand, change,
administrate, and control a part of reality. These models can be qualitative, mathe-
matic, or both (Grace et al. 2008). Before deciding what models to use, it is neces-
sary to perform a problem structuration stage, in which the modeler takes a poorly
defined and implicit view of reality and molds it to be well defined, well understood,
and rational for other people. Important differences exist between reality and the
model. For example, reality is complex, ambiguous, and poorly defined, whereas
the model is simple, concrete, and well-defined. As for the simple model, the simple
adjective can be understood as a model that has few elements and relationships, and
for that reason it can be not very representative. However, in the context of model
building, simple should mean being fully explicit and capable of being tested and
evaluated by other people. At this point, it is useful to distinguish between trying to
resolve a well-structured problem, which is solving, and trying to obtain knowledge
on a poorly structured problem, which is modeling (Fig. 6.1).
In this chapter, a mathematic modeling methodology is proposed, designing a
procedure that allows an objective to be achieved from a structured problem—which
6 Decision-Making with Multicriteria Optimization and GIS for Park Locations 107
Fig. 6.1 Important Reality Model

differences between reality
and models. (Source: Own Complex Simple
elaboration based on Ambiguous Concrete
Pidd 1996)
Poor-defined Well-defined
in this case is to determine the best places for building parks accounting for restric-
tions and different objectives.
6.3 tructuring the Problem of Park Location

S
and Mathematic Modeling Methodology
The first phase for solving the problem of park location is its structuration. In a well-
structured problem, the analysis objectives are clear, assumptions that have to be
made are obvious, all necessary data are available and ready to use, and the logic
structure behind the analysis is well understood. All of these items can be obtained
by measuring the consequences clarification, decision clarification, uncertainties
clarification; defining the framework; formulating the hypothesis; developing the
model’s sequence; and formulating tentative conclusions. These activities in a prob-
lem’s structuration process have to be undertaken by an inquisitive mind that takes
many research questions with a spirit of discovery (Pidd 1996). A general process
used to structure a problem is shown in Fig. 6.2.
In this structuration process, one of the first questions is: What makes a specific
place a great prospect for being a park? Majid et al. (1983) evaluated park locations
based on the utility they generate, defined by users’ activities and nearby homeown-
ers’ willingness to pay more for the services generated by parks.
Erkip (1997) focused on defining factors that should be taken into account in
these decisions: service factors such as distance, accessibility, travel time, comfort
measurement, security, physical appeal, maintenance; and user factors, such as
nearby population characteristics, density, homogeneity, age, gender, income level,
and education level. In other research done in Valencia, Spain, Salazar and Garćıa
(2005) found that park proximity is an essential element that influences people to
pay high costs in order to obtain the benefits of having a park close to them. Including
this and other information in the structuring process, it can be concluded that prox-
imity is a critical aspect. However, a number of factors must be considered, which
have been thus far limited to economic aspects that are apparently simple to quan-
tify. In addition, not all criteria can be modeled mathematically, nor is possible to
obtain all necessary information for the model.
Another question is whether optimization models have been used for public
place locations. It was observed that are many uses of discrete and continuous local-
ization models, as well as solution techniques for this purpose (ReVelle et al. 2007).
However, current models use one or two evaluation criteria, emphasizing the
Fig. 6.2 Problem To reflect

structuration as a constant
exploration. (Source: Own
elaboration)
To answer To ask
distance criterion. A study on urban park locations by Molano and Sarmiento (2007)
was used as a framework to develop the multi-criteria location model used in this
chapter.
A third question that is important in the problem structuration process is whether
the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) is favorable. Many studies on
public service locations (Zhou et al. 2013), particularly parks (Lee and Graefe
2004), have used GIS. GIS has tools for multi-criteria analysis; however, this analy-
sis only allows one to evaluate spatially represented criteria—that is, it cannot
consider restrictions related to costs and available resources.
Analyzing available information and following a problem structuration problem
leads to three essential points. First, when it concerns to public service locations,
objectives about costs and benefits are pursuit. In this context of location of public
services, pursuit means that they are sought, that is, it is necessary to achieve both
cost and benefit objectives, that is, minimize costs and at the same time maximize
social benefits, which can be intangible and difficult to achieve or calculate mone-
tarily. Benefits are difficult criteria to quantify. In this case, it is related to having a
park to promote its use; that is, the park should be near users or be accessible,
assuming that a conveniently located park is more likely to have visitors. Many
selection criteria about suitable areas for parks can be considered simultaneously
with the help of mathematic models. However, it is very important to analyze and
delimitate the problem, as well as define the scope and predicted results. Therefore,
for factors that were to be evaluated but had concerns about information availability
and model suitability, the following criteria were considered:
(a) Investment (park building costs)
(b) Geographic coverage (number of blocks covered)
(c) Population coverage (number of people who benefitted)
(d) Accessibility (traffic density)
Other propositions for models that follow the same line of work, for cities like
Mexico City, could also incorporate important criteria such as poverty decrease,
natural habitat restoration, biodiversity, and culture protection (Wang et al. 2012).
Goal or multi-criteria programming (GP) has been used in decision-making based
on the achievement of different criteria or objectives that we want to reach. These
models include diverse objective-functions in the same model, which contributes to
ensuring that the solutions found correspond to the needs of the people involved in the
decision-making process. The idea of GP is to establish an acceptance level for each

criterion. Under this multi-criteria approach, there are other methods for decision-
making that combine qualitative and quantitative techniques; this is referred to as the
analytic hierarchy process. An example of this, applied to validation of proposals for
urban renovation in Hong Kong, is shown in the work of Grace et al. (2008).
Second, based on the obtained information and considering the aforementioned
criteria, a multi-criteria mathematic optimization model was developed—specifi-
cally, a discrete location model. This tool was used because service location theory
allows one to determine the ideal location for a service, considering several restric-
tions. To develop the model, which interacts with GIS, the mathematic modeling
methodology shown in Fig. 6.3 was used. The proposed model is multi-objective
because it has different objective-functions to reach; this aspect is important because
it increases problem view and is intended to develop solutions that achieve, as much
as possible, all planned objectives.
Third, as previously mentioned, GIS was used for collecting data, analysis, and
results presentation. GIS has been defined as a computer system (PLC) for captur-
ing, storing, analyzing, and visual presentation of spatial data (Clarke 1995). A GIS
is integrated essentially by a set of spatial or cartographic information and a data-
base that contains the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of this information
(Villa et al. 1996; Wong and Jusuf 2008; Oh and Jeong 2007; Zhou et al. 2013).
When solving this problem for the selected case study, it was intended to develop
a group of available urban areas that are suitable for becoming parks. These results
can be used to make decisions according to population and government needs, as
well as ensure that the investment would be located in the best place.
OBJECT/SYSTEM
Why? What we are looking for?

Finding? What we want to know?
MODEL VARIABLES AND PARAMETERS
Known? What we know? How? How can we observe the model?

Hypothesis? What can we assume? Improvement? How can we improve our model?
Predictions? What does our model Predict?
MODEL PROOFS
Validation? Are our predictions valid?
MODEL PREDICTIONS
Verification? Are our predictions good?
VALIDATED AND ACCCEPTED PREDICTIONS
Use? How can we use the model?
Fig. 6.3 Mathematic modeling methodology. (Source: Dym 2004)

The model applied is an adaption of Molano and Sarmiento (2007), which also
deals with park locations using a multi-objective model. Some modifications were
made to adjust it to Mexico City’s needs. The multi-objective model used in this
chapter is shown as follows:
max f1 = ∑z j (6.1)
j∈J
max f2 = ∑ pi yi (6.2)
i∈I
max f3 = ∑vi yi (6.3)

i∈I
min f4 = ∑ci yi (6.4)

i∈I
Subject to
zj ≤ ∑y
i∈W j
i (6.5)
Ij zj ≥ ∑y ,
i∈W j
i ∀i ∈ I (6.6)
amin ≤ t ∑ai yi + ∑xi (6.7)

i∈I I i∈I s
amax ≤ t ∑ai yi + ∑xi (6.8)

i∈I I i∈I s
xi ≥ tmin ymin , ∀i ∈ I s (6.9)
xi ≤ ai yi , ∀i ∈ I s (6.10)
zj ≤ ∑y ,
i∈W j
i ∀j ∈ J (6.11)
∑y
i∈W j
i =1 (6.12)
∑y
i∈W j
i ≥2 (6.13)
z j ∈ {0,1} , ∀j ∈ J (6.14)
yi ∈ {0,1} , ∀i ∈ I (6.15)
xi ≥ 0, ∀i ∈ I S (6.16)
Expressions (6.1), (6.2), (6.3), and (6.4) represent model objectives; (6.5), (6.6),
(6.7), (6.8), (6.9), (6.10), (6.11), (6.12), and (6.13) express model restrictions; and
(6.14), (6.15), and (6.16) define the solution space of decision variables.
Specifically, expression (6.1) maximizes block coverage and achieves the geo-
graphic coverage criterion; (6.2) maximizes the benefitted population and achieves
the population coverage criterion; (6.3) maximizes the sum of traffic density indica-
tors (with this objective-function, the accessibility criterion is achieved); and (6.4)
minimizes the investment.
Expressions (6.5) determine that each block j only be covered (zj = 1) if some
prospect area i is selected and has block j in its coverage area; otherwise, if not a
single prospect area that can cover block j is selected, then the right side of restric-
tion (6.5) forces to zj = 0. Conversely, restrictions (6.6) force all blocks j that are
covered by prospect area i to be activated (zj = 1) if prospect area i is selected
(yi = 1).
Expressions (6.7) and (6.8) ensure that the sum of the destined areas for the park
from prospect areas are between amin and amax. Expressions (6.9) and (6.10) ensure
that if a prospect area i, where i ∈ IS, is selected, then the area in m2 of this, which
will be destined for the park, should be between tmin and ai.
Dealing with the multi-criteria model implies the use of an appropriate solution
technique. For this reason, programming methods with lexicographical goals are
used because this solution method defines relevant goals for the problem and assigns
priorities to them. The proposed solution diagram consists of two stages. In stage 1,
four mono-objective models are solved; these are formed by one of the equations
(6.1), (6.2), (6.3), and (6.4) (which define pursued objective) and restrictions (6.5),
(6.6), (6.7), (6.8), (6.9), (6.10), (6.11), (6.12), (6.13), and (6.14) (represented by
Omega), with the purpose of finding the ideal solution for each of the sub-problems.
In stage 2, we used the programming sequential methods by lexicographical goals.
Stage 1 gives the ideal solutions for each sub-problem; the results can be used in the
second stage to define minimum acceptable levels, which are calculated using the
alpha value, which indicates the minimum acceptable fraction of the obtained ideal.
For this second stage, it is necessary to order lexicographically objectives; that is, in
a sequential way, the solution for one objective is found so that defined goals can be
reached. In this process, value is incorporated, which represents the minimum
acceptable fraction of the ideal. The priority order used in this case follows the order
in which objectives in the model were shown; the purpose is to find a solution that
guarantees good results in indicators with a low cost.
Adding GIS to this research favored the visual representation of information in
maps, as well as data contained in the zones that form Mexico City and Delegación
Cuauhtémoc, in addition to characteristics that they have (e.g., blocks, population,
transportation infrastructure, roads, routes). Thus, through this tool, a favorable
visual representation of results and scenarios was achieved. Additionally, with GIS
integration using archives in the shape format of transportation infrastructure and

blocks, as well as a database of population per block, traffic density, benefitted
population, and blocks covered, parameters were obtained for every coverage area
developed for parks of Delegación Cuauhtémoc.
6.4 Application for Delegación Cuauthémoc in Mexico City
As previously mentioned, Mexico City has “delegaciones” that do not fulfill the interna-
tional standards of 9 m2 of parks per inhabitant. Our case study focused on one of these
areas with the lowest percentages in Mexico City: Delegación Cuauhtémoc. For
model functionality demonstration purposes, a catalogue of 19 parks was defined, as
suggested by the urban Development Unit (Unidad de Desarrollo Urbano) of
Delegación Cuauhtémoc. These spaces are damaged and do not meet with necessary
conditions for population use. However, they are capable of becoming parks for the
Delegación under study. Our model will select those that are suitable for an intervention.
The WHO suggested that parks be designed so that every resident lives near an
open space, no more than 15 minutes walking distance. Therefore, analysis was
performed for 5, 10, and 15 minutes, aiming to have a wide view of the impact of
travelling time on the population coverage of a park. Therefore, for each one of the
parks, three coverage ratio polygons were generated, with parameters for traffic
density, total population, and number of blocks close to each park. Once parameters
were defined, multi-criteria optimization models were formulated for each one of
the used scenarios; three coverage scopes were considered to perform an impact
analysis in the coverage polygons generated by parks.
Based on the parks available, both the optimization model and GIS were used;
the latter provided information about the parameters required for the model to
obtain a solution. The model solution and results analysis were obtained using the
following strategy:
(a) According to WHO, parks should be less than 15 minutes walking distance
from a citizen’s house. Therefore, for each area, three scenarios were developed
for coverage areas: (a) 5 minutes, (b) 10 minutes, and (c) 15 minutes.
(b) For each scenario, GIS provided traffic density, total population, and block cov-
erage parameters, data used in the multi-criteria optimization model. It was
solved by a lexicographic method, using LINGO 10 software. Results concern
the park numbers for which investments should be made, benefitted population,
and traffic density indicator. See Table 6.1.
(c) Validation is an important part of any model development. In this case, the sen-
sitivity analysis regarding the generated results of the model in relation to its
answer was performed, in the presence of parameter changes. With this analy-
sis, the same problem was solved for different parameter values. The model is
considered valid in terms of its high robustness and its response to extreme
values, since the results obtained when the behavior of the model with extreme
values was evaluated were as expected.
Table 6.1 Model solution given by LINGO 10

Objective function 5 minutes Coverage ratio 10 minutes 15 minutes
1 Blocks covered 51 161 253
2 Benefitted population 10,855 38,018 45,152
3 Traffic density 0.0661 0.05194 0.05509
4 Investment 533,197,971 517,172,638 533,197,971
a) 5 min b) 10 min c) 15 min
Fig. 6.4 Scenarios: (a) 5 minutes, (b) 10 minutes, (c) 15 minutes. (Source: Own elaboration)
GIS LINGO
Correction of necessary Formulation of

files for the analysis. the model
Generation of Integrate
coverage areas Problem
parameter
solution
Obtaining parameters:
• Road density Results
• Benefited population
• Coveraged blocks
Validation of
results
Presentation and
analysis of the results
Fig. 6.5 Workflow in GIS and LINGO. (Source: Own elaboration)

Fig. 6.4 shows a work diagram in which activities performed in GIS and LINGO
10 are summarized. The interaction between both technologies can be seen in
Fig. 6.5.
Results were obtained by a sensitivity analysis, which indicated that investments
should be directed to three parks from the first catalogue of 19: Jardín de las Artes
Gráficas, Jardín Ignacio Chávez, and Jardín Alexander Pushkin. Using this solution
(considering 15 minutes’ coverage, following WHO standards), 253 blocks will be
reached (representing 20.9% of the optimal value) and 45,152 people would benefit
(reaching 67.7% of the optimal value). With this selection, the largest population
would benefit, block coverage and traffic density indicators would be maximized,
and cost would be minimized.
6.5 Conclusions
Research was conducted by modeling methodologies for a problem structuration

framework, as well as mathematic modeling .They were oriented to the develop-
ment itself. Their correct use allowed the proper techniques for the stated problem
and also contributed to the research field.
In this chapter, an interactive procedure was developed following a multi-criteria
mathematic optimization model to determine a group of locations suitable to becom-
ing parks. In addition, this procedure was applied to develop a subgroup of parks
where investments should be made inside Delegación Cuauhtémoc. This informa-
tion will be useful as support for decision makers. The proposed model was
improved because Molano and Sarmiento (2007) model claimed to change variables
into binary numbers; we adjusted a restriction from model analysis and validation
so that binary variables were not necessary, which required less computing effort for
the model using LINGO 10 resources. Joining different objective-functions in a
service location model is favorable in terms of satisfaction concerning intended
results. At this point, the mathematic tool is useful because results considering dif-
ferent points of view are obtained, which gives a more participative and realistic
view compared with mono-objective optimization and this becomes a more useful
support for decision-making. Using GIS was relevant for application development;
in addition to providing spatial information and necessary parameter values for opti-
mization models that were otherwise nearly impossible to obtain, results analysis
and presentation were easier. Thus, a clearer idea about the generated impact could
be obtained, incorporating different values analyzing diverse scenarios.
Using tools such as GIS allows one to perform spatial analysis of public service
accessibility—in this case, parks. Future studies should analyze different groups to
consider special needs of the population (Zhou et al. 2013) Thus, it will be impor-
tant to highlight the interaction’s originality and creativity between optimization
tools and GIS. Indeed, the proper use of operations research methodology provides
verified and validated results for real-life problems.
References
T. Baycan-Levent, R. Vreeker, P. Nijkamp, A multi-criteria evaluation of green spaces in European

cities. Eur. Urban Reg. Stud. 16(2), 219–239 (2009)
A. Chiesura, The role of urban parks for the sustainable city. Landsc. Urban Plan. 1(68),
129–138 (2004)
K. Clarke, Analytical and Computer Cartography (Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, 1995)
C. Dym, Principles of Mathematical Modeling (Elsevier Academic Press, New York, 2004)
F. Erkip, The distribution of urban public services: The case of parks and recreational services in
Ankara. Cities 14(6), 353–361 (1997)
K. Grace, L. Lee, H. Edwin, W. Chan, The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach for assess-
ment of urban renewal proposals. Soc. Indic. Res., Springer 89(1), 55–168 (2008)
B. Lee, A. Graefe, GIS: A tool to locate new park and recreations services. Park. Recreat. 30(10),
34–41 (2004)
I. Majid, J. Sinden, A. Randall, Benefit evaluation of increments to existing system of public facili-
ties. Land Econ. 59(4), 1–16 (1983)
A. Molano, O. Sarmiento, Modelo de localización de áreas urbanas para construcción de nuevos
parques vecinales en Bogotá, Tesis de maestría, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, 2007
M. Neema, A. Ohgai, Multi-objective location modeling of urban parks and open spaces:
Continuous optimization. Comput. Environ. Urban. Syst. 1(34), 359–376 (2010)
D. Nowak, J. Dwyer, G. Childs, Beneficios y costos de manejo de áreas verdes urbanas. Manuscrito
para publicación en Annales del Seminario sobre Áreas Verdes Urbanas (1997, diciembre)
K. Oh, S. Jeong, Assessing the spatial distribution of urban parks using GIS. Landsc. Urban Plan.
82, 25–32 (2007)
M. Pidd, Tools for Thinking: Modeling in Management Science (Wiley, Chichester, 1996)
C. ReVelle, H. Eiselt, M. Daskin, A bibliography for some fundamental problema categories in
discrete location science. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 184(3), 817–848 (2007)
S. Salazar, L. Garćıa, Estimating the non-market benefits of an urban park: Does proximity matter?
Land Use Policy 24(1), 296–305 (2005)
M. Sorensen, V. Barzetti, K. Keipi, J. Williams, Manejo de áreas verdes, Documento de buenas
prácticas (Mayo, Washington, D.C., 1998)
F. Villa, M. Ceroni, A. Mazza, A GIS-based method for multi-objective evaluation of park vegeta-
tion. Landsc. Urban Plan. 35(4), 203–212 (1996)
G. Wang, J.L. Innes, S.W. Wu, J. Krzyzanowski, Y. Yin, S. Dai, X. Zhang, S. Liu, National
Park Development in China: Conservation or Commercialization? Ambio, Springer 41(3),
247–261 (2012)
N. H. Wong, S. K. Jusuf. GIS-based greenery evaluation on campus master plan. Landsc. Urban
Plan., 84(2), 166–182 (2008)
S. Zhou, Y. Cheng, M. Xiao, X. Bao, Assessing the location of public and community facilities for
the elderly in Beijing, China. Geo J., Springer 78(3), 539–551 (2013)
Chapter 7
A Service Location Model in a Bi-level
Structure
Zaida E. Alarcón-Bernal and Ricardo Aceves-García
7.1 Introduction
Many operational systems may be modeled as networks. In some cases, the problem
involves the location of some service to meet the demand of one or various clients;
in a search model, the objective is to locate a set of services which supply a group
of clients scattered in a region.
However, most of the work found regarding location theory focuses on problem-
solving emphasizing a single criterion, which generally refers to distance minimiza-
tion (costs, travel time, physical distance, etc.).
When including multicriteria, it shows great progress in regard to traditional
modeling, due to the fact that a large number of alternatives can be incorporated in
decision-making. The multicriteria programming problems are useful to solve situ-
ations where more than one objective, attribute, or goal has to be accomplished but
does not incorporate interdependency among them. This is why multilevel program-
ming arises. The multilevel problems include multiple objectives and consider the
relationships between them according to a hierarchy. These problems incorporate
some characteristics of the multicriteria problems and include the game theory
approach. The simplest model of multilevel programming is the bi-level
programming.
The bi-level programming model deals with hierarchical optimization problems,
which have a second optimization problem as part of their restrictions. In all cases,
the higher-level problem or leader is used to reflect the objective to accomplish a
Z. E. Alarcón-Bernal (*)
Department of Biomedical Systems Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, National
R. Aceves-García
Mexico City, Mexico

118 Z. E. Alarcón-Bernal and R. Aceves-García
certain goal, which cannot be carried out without considering the reaction of the
follower’s problem (Dempe 2002).
In this work, the aim is to use a network services search model with two objec-
tives, considering that a hierarchical relation is present among the same and that one
depends on the solution of the other. The model contemplates two main objectives:
minimal investment and demand satisfaction.
7.2 Bi-level Programming Models
Multilevel optimization problems are a logic extension of mathematical program-

ming, which consider the inclusion of multiple objectives and the relationships
between them, in addition to being a generalization to Stackelberg’s problem
(Stackelberg 1934) for non-cooperative games.
The simplest case of multi-level programming is the bi-level model (BLPP),
which deal with hierarchical problems in two levels (leader and follower), meaning
optimization problems which have a second optimization problem as part of their
restrictions. In all these cases, the leader problem is used to reflect the objective of
accomplishing a certain goal, and this cannot be accomplished without considering
the reaction of the sub-alternate part of the decisions (follower’s problem).
The bi-level problem’s approach arises out of Stackelberg’s model (Stackelberg
1934), which is a strategic game in economics, in which the first player makes a
movement and the following player reacts rationally to the first’s election. In this
game, the gain of one player does not imply the loss of other; the players make deci-
sions in a specific order, the second player react logically to the decision of the first,
and both players have perfect information about strategies and payments.
The approach as a mathematical model initially appeared in the works of Braken
and McGill (1973) who presented it as a mathematical programming model with
optimization problems in the restrictions. However, as the bi-level and multilevel
programming problems, they were introduced by Candler and Norton (1977).
Based in Stackelberg’s game, various authors have contributed to the develop-
ment of the bi-level and multilevel programming. The main ones are Aiyoshi and
Shimizu (1981); Bard and Falk (1982); Bialas, Karwan, and Shaw (1980); Candler
and Norton (1977); Wen (1981); and Benson (1989).
In regard to the properties, Bard (1984) proposed an equivalency with the single
level mathematical problems. Subsequently, some authors such as Ishisuka (1988);
Savard and Gauvin (1990); Chen and Florian (1991); Bi and Calami (1991); Dempe
(1992); Ye and Zhu (1993); Outrata (1993); and Vicente and Calamai (1994) have
proposed necessary and sufficient optimality conditions, in addition to the ones pro-
posed by Bard.
With regard to complexity, Jeroslow (1985) showed that the bi-level problem is
NP-hard. Years after, Bard (1991) and Ben-Ayed and Blair (1990) confirmed this
result through shortest tests. Hansen et al. (1992), established that the lineal BLPP
is strongly NP-hard.
7 A Service Location Model in a Bi-level Structure 119
Considering the different characteristics of the problems, the solution strategies

proposed to solve these types of problems can be divided into six main types:
• Extreme point algorithms used for continuous problems.
• Branch and bound algorithms have been applied to convex bi-level problems
and, even though they are associated with great computational efforts, are capa-
ble of finding the global optimal solution.
• Complementary pivot algorithms, combining ideas of extreme point and branch
and bound.
• Descending methods, which incorporate descending directions that look for opti-
mal local points.
• Method of penalty functions, which include exact penalty functions and are lim-
ited to local optimal calculations.
• Heuristic methods, as genetic algorithms and neural networks.
However, problems with whole restrictions have not been paid attention to, and
only a few algorithms have been proposed, among which stand out the ones from
Bard and Moore (1992) which use as strategy branch and bound. In this work, a
whole bi-level programming model is presented which will be solved with the men-
tioned algorithm.
7.3 Model Approach
7.3.1 P-Median Location Model
Many systems can be modeled as networks. In the network search models, the most
common criteria consist of minimizing the cost function in relation to travel time,
distances, and possibly other aspects of the trip. These types of criteria are known
as medians, where a given set of location enters which covers each demand center
in the system and an optimal set minimizes the negative effect of the trip. Locations
that optimize a criterion like such refer to medians in networks.
7.3.2 General Model
Suppose there is a given network, for which a set of nodes V = {v1, · · ·, vn}. Each
arch (i,j) of the network has a weight associated c(i,j). In most median location
problems, the networks are built in such a way that the demand centers are located
on the nodes, for which each node vi has an associated demand g(i).
If it is considered that the supply center is located in point x ∈ G, then the average
time of the supply center to the random request in the network is:
i =1
∑ g ( i ) t ( x, i )
n
where t(x, i) refers to the shortest travel time of x ∈ G to vi ∈ G.

An absolute median of a given network is the location x∗ which minimizes the
average travel time. If we have p supply centers to be located, p optimal locations
should be determined. This problem is known as p − median problem.
7.3.3 Formulation
Let N = {1, · · ·, n} the set of indexes for potential location of the medians and
A = {1,…,m} the set of indexes for the demand centers. For each i ∈ N, j ∈ A where
ci,j is the client assigned cost j to the median searched in location i.
For the problem, the following decision variables are defined:
yi ={ 1, if the median is located in location i

0, in another case
{
xij =
1, If the demand center j is assigned to the median located in i
0, in another case
i N , j A
The problem (1) can be formulated as:
min ∑ ∑ cij xij (7.1.1)

i∈N j∈ A
Subject to:
∑ xij = 1, ∀j ∈ A (7.1.2)
i∈N
∑ yi = p (7.1.3)
i∈N
xij ≤ yi , ∀j ∈ A, i ∈ N (7.1.4)
xij ∈ {0,1} , yi ∈ {0,1} , ∀j ∈ A, i ∈ N (7.1.5)
Restrictions (7.1.2) guarantee that each client is assigned to a distribution center.

Restriction (7.1.3) makes sure that eight locations are exactly selected for the medi-
ans. Restrictions (7.1.4) make sure that the clients are assigned to a median only if
such as been selected. Restrictions (7.1.5) specify that the decision variables
are binary.
7.3.4 Bi-level Programming Problems
Bi-level programming problems (BLPP) are mathematical programming problems

where the set of all variables is broken into two vectors x and y; x will be chosen as
an optimal solution of the second problem parameterized in y.
In all cases, the superior-level problem is used to reflect the objective of accom-
plishing a certain goal, and such cannot be accomplished without considering the
reaction of the inferior part of the decisions. An important structure of this problem
is the hierarchical relation between two types of decision-makers.
A bi-level programming problem (2) can be formulated as follows:
min F ( x,y ) = c1 x + d1 y (7.2.1)

x∈X
Subject to : A1 x + B1 y ≤ b1 (7.2.2)
min f ( x,y ) = c2 x + d2 y (7.2.3)

y∈Y
Subject to : A2 x + B2 y ≤ b2 (7.2.4)
Where:
c1 , c2 ∈  n , d1 , d2 ∈  m , b1 ∈  p , b2 ∈  q , A1 ∈  pn , B1 ∈  pm , A2 ∈  qn , B2 ∈  qm
For x ∈ X ⊂  n , and y ∈ Y ⊂  m , F : X × Y → R and f : X × Y → 
The sets X and Y add restrictions as higher or lower fees or integrality requisites.
Once the problem leader selects an x, the first term on the follower’s problem in the
objective function turns into a constant and can be taken out of the problem; in such
a case, f(x, y) turns into f(y). The decision sequence means that y can be seen as a
function of x, that is, y = f(x).
7.3.5 Definitions
(a) Set of restrictions of BLPP:
S  {( x,y ) : x ∈ X , y ∈ Y , A1 x + B1 y ≤ b1 , A2 x + B2 y ≤ b2 }
(b) Feasible region of the follower’s problem for each fixed x ∈ X:
S ( x )  { y ∈ Y : B2 y ≤ b2 − A2 x}
(c) Rational reaction of the inferior problem for y ∈ S(x):
{ }
P ( x )  y ∈ Y : y ∈ argmin  f ( x, y ) : y ∈ S ( x )  t
(d) Inducible region:
Q  { ( x,Y ) : ( x,y ) ∈ S , y ∈ P ( x )}
To prove the aforementioned, it is assumed that S is not empty and compact. And for
all decisions taken by the leader, the lower problem will have a set of answers, this
is to say,
P ( x) ≠ φ
Set P(x) defines the reaction, while region S represents the set on which the leader
will achieve the optimal.
7.3.6 Discrete Bi-level Problem
The problem (3) will be considered with the following formulation:
min F ( x,y ) = c1 x + d1 y (7.3.1)

x∈X
Subject to : A1 x + B1 y ≤ b1 (7.3.2)
min f ( y ) = d2 y (7.3.3)
y∈Y
Subject to : A2 x + B2 y ≤ b2 (7.3.4)
where:
c1 ∈  n , d1 , d2 ∈  m , b1 ∈  p , b2 ∈  q , A1 ∈  pn , B2 ∈  pm , B2 ∈  qm ,
X ⊂  n and Y ⊂  m
where Sl(y) = {x ∈ X : A2x ≤ b2 − B2y} for every y ∈ Y and Su = {(x, y) : A1x + B1y ≤ b1}
for each x ∈ X. It should be assumed that optimal solution to the lower-level prob-
lem is unique. ℝ
Considering that X = ℝ n and Y = ℝ m in the linear bi-level problem (L-BLPP), we

have the following models:
1. Discrete linear bi-level problem where X = Zn and Y = Zm
2. Discrete-continuous linear bi-level problem where X = Z and Y = Rm
3. Continuous-discrete linear bi-level problem where X = Rn and Y = Zm
7.4 Formulation of Bi-level Search Services Model
The proposed model describes a network with production centers, distribution

centers, and client zones considering only one product. The network is structured
in such a way that production centers only supply distributors and these, in turn,
only service their clients. The plant will take the role as qualified, not the
warehouses.
These are the parameters:
i∈P Set of distribution plants

j∈A Set of candidate zones for warehouses
k∈F Set of clients
M Number of warehouses to be searched
oj Fixed operations cost if a warehouse is found in j
Ci Capacity of plant i
dk Demand of client k
c
ij Transportation cost per product unit from plant i to warehouse j
sjk k. Transportation cost per product unit from warehouse located in j
to client
t
jk Delivery time from warehouse located in j to client k
Decision variables:
xij Amount of product to be transported from plant i to distribution center located in j.
{
y jk =
1, If wharehouse is located in j
0, in another case
zj = { 1, If wharehouse is located in j
0, in another case
7.4.1 General Model, Problem (4)
Minimize
z = ∑ ∑ xij cij + ∑ ∑ dk s jk y jk + ∑ o j z j (7.4.1)

i∈P j∈ A k∈F j∈ A j∈ A
Subject to:
∑ xij ≤ cij , ∀i ∈ P (7.4.2)

j∈ A
∑ xij ≥ ∑ dk y jk , ∀j ∈ A (7.4.3)
i∈P k∈F
∑ zj ≤ M (7.4.4)
j∈ A
xij ∈ Z + (7.4.5)
Minimize
∑ ∑ t jk y jk (7.4.6)
k∈F j∈ A
Subject to:
∑ y jk = 1, ∀k ∈ F (7.4.7)
j∈ A
y jk ≤ z j , ∀j ∈ A, ∀k ∈ F (7.4.8)
y jk ∈ {0,1} , z j ∈ {0,1} (7.4.9)
In the objective function of the leader problem, we seek to minimize the transporta-
tion costs, from the plants to the warehouses in the first result. In the following term,
we seek to minimize the transportation costs from the warehouses to clients. And
the last term refers to the warehouse operation costs, if located in j.
With restriction (7.4.2), we guarantee that the number of products sent does not
become higher than the capacity of the plant. In (7.4.3), we guarantee that what
leaves the warehouses is not greater to what arrives there. With the inequality
(7.4.4), we guarantee that the number of established warehouses is less or equal to
the number of requested warehouses (median). And (7.4.5) establishes the integral-
ity for x. The objective function of the follower problem is (7.4.6), and the intent is
to minimize delivery time, from warehouses to clients. With (7.4.7), we guarantee
that only one warehouse delivers to each client. In (7.4.8), we guarantee that a ware-
house j can deliver to a client k if the warehouse was located j. With (7.4.9), vari-
ables yjk,zj are restricted to be binary.
7.4.2 Solution Method
The algorithm shown next was developed by Bard (1998) to solve whole bi-level
problems with binary restrictions in the variables. The key of the algorithm is the
acknowledgment of each solution to the binary problem it must have a solution to:
in the set of rational reactions. When the search is limited in this way, it is possible
to easily cover the inducible region points, formulating and solving the following
parameterized program (5) (Roodman 1972):
Minimize
f ( y ) = d2 y (7.4.10)
Subject to:
A1 x + B1 y ≤ b1 (7.4.11)
A2 x + B2 y ≤ b2 (7.4.12)
F ( x,y ) = c1 x + d1 y ≤ α (7.4.13)
j =1
∑ xj ≥ β (7.4.14)
n
x ∈ X, y ∈ Y (7.4.15)
where the parameters α and β initially take the values of ∞ and 0, respectively.
Restriction (7.4.13) forces compensation between both objective functions. The
inequality (7.4.14) restricts the sum of the variables controlled by the leader and in
this way selects ramification variables.
7.4.3 Algorithm
An implied numbering centered in the leader’s variables of decision and applied to

problem (4) is used to resolve the binary problem. The algorithm examines the
points that satisfy the constraints (7.4.11, 7.4.12, 7.4.13, 7.4.14, and 7.4.15), set x
and the corresponding values, then, solve again to get a new point in the inducible
region. Adjusting α and β in each iteration, the algorithm continually diminishes the
value of the lead objective function objective until the problem is no longer feasible.
Being W = {1,. . .,n}, in the k-nth algorithm iteration. The set Wk of variables
assigned during iteration k. A vector path Pk of longitude l = |Wk| corresponding to a
designation of xj = 0, xj = 1 for j ∈ Wk. Vector Pk identifies a partial solution for the
variables controlled by the leader in the l-nth of the search tree; it also indicates the
order in which the variables were established.
Being:
k + = { j : j ∈ Wk and x j = 1}
k − = { j : j ∈ Wk and x j = 0}
k 0 = { j : j ∈ Wk }
After iterations k, you get ℝk, which is the set of covered points in the inducible
region, and you obtain F as a greater dimension associated with the function object
of the leader:
{
F = min F ( x,y ) : ( x,y ) ∈ e k }
where F = ∞ , at the beginning of algorithm.
To solve the model, we used the following algorithm (Fig. 7.1):
Actualizar conjuntos
Sk+ , Sk-- ,Sk0 y Pk
-- --
F == min{F , F ( x k , y^ k ){
--
a == F 1 β == 1 + |Sk+ |
,
Sí
Inicialización
k == 0 , Sk+ == ∅, Sk-- ,== ∅ ?
Hay alguna ?
El punto está
Sí Etiquetar el nodo
Sk0 == {1, ... , n{ solución en la región
factible? como explorado
-- inducible?
a == ¥ , β == 0, F == ¥
No Sí No
β == 0
No ?
Existe algún
Terminar nodo no
etiquetado?
Fig. 7.1 Solution algorithm for bi-level binary programs. (Source: Own elaboration)
7.5 Model Application
The model presented in the previous sections was used to solve a medication distri-
bution problem by a pharmaceutical enterprise in some clinical sites of the State
Health Department of the State of Mexico (ISEM).
To meet the duty, the enterprise must have, at least, a warehouse that meets the
characteristics determined by ISEM. Additionally, the contract specifies the inven-
tory that each pharmacy must keep (demand center), as well as the delivery time in
case an emergency occurs, which happens when the demand center makes an
unusual request of a product and the product is not available.
Clinics are classified according to its dimension, the services it offers, and the
care it provides. The attributes and size of each clinic determine the number of
SKUs needed for medications and medical material for urgent care. The SKUs
include the most requested products. With this information we’re able to determine
the delivery frequency. The average daily SKU requests in the client zones are
shown in Table 7.1
For the general delivery, it takes place through a monthly distribution planning
for the distribution and storing of products, in order to meet with the inventory regu-
lations; nevertheless, because the demand for medication for each health center is
random, daily adjustments take place.
The systems used by the enterprise become inefficient the moment an emergency
occurs, because the inventory of the rest of the pharmacies is destabilized, poten-
tially creating another emergency, and thus, the initial planning becomes obsolete.
A new programming and distribution will be required which will generate new
expenses.
Because of this previous information, pharmaceuticals propose the option of
placing three micro-warehouses (at the most) near the health clinics, which will take
care of emergency situations, with the intent of reducing costs that lack of supply
generates and the attention times in case of an emergency. The micro-warehouses
must be placed in the bigger health clinics, since these have more available space for
placing; these are shown in Table 7.2.
Table 7.1 Daily average demand in zones of clients

Outpatient visit clinic Average demand/day
Acolman 110
Axapusco 110
Nopaltepec 70
Otumba 60
San Martín de las Pirámides 80
Temascalapa 120
Teotihuacán 110
Source: Prepared by the authors based on information provided by the health clinics
Table 7.2: Health clinic candidates for establishing micro-warehouses

Health clinic Type Location
Dr Gustavo Baz Specialized hospital Tepexpan
Hospital Municipal Bicentenario General hospital Otumba
Psiquiátrico Dr. Adolfo Nieto Psychiatric hospital Tepexpan
Carlos María de Bustamante CEAPS Nopaltepec
Source: Prepared by the authors based on the information provided by the Health Department
The main objective is to minimize shipping costs, from the warehouse to the
micro-warehouses and from these to the pharmacies, as well as the building and
operational costs, considering the restriction the distributions must do at minimal
time, as established in the contract with ISEM.
To solve the problem, the following information is taken into account:
• There is only one distribution plant (general warehouse) with an additional ship-
ping capacity of 700 units of medication.
• Candidate locations to place a micro-warehouse must have the characteristics on
Table 7.3.
• It is required to locate at least three micro-warehouses in the area.

• The transportation costs of the general warehouse to each candidate are shown in
Table 7.4.
• The daily demand, given as the average historical demands by type of health
clinic, by municipality, is point out in Table 7.5.
• Times and delivery costs are shown in Table 7.6.

The model for the pharmaceutical problem (6) is formulated as:
4 7 4 4
Min z = ∑ x j c j + ∑ ∑ dk s jk y jk + ∑ o j x j (7.6.1)
j =1 k =1 j =1 j =1
Subject to:
4
∑ xij ≤ 700 (7.6.2)
j =1
7
x j − ∑ dk y jk ≥ 0, j = 1,…, 4 (7.6.3)
k =1
4
∑ zj ≤ 3 (7.6.4)
j =1
xj ∈ Z+ (7.6.5)
Table 7.3 Operational expenses of candidate locations

Health clinic Monthly operational costs
Dr Gustavo Baz 583.74
Hospital Municipal Bicentenario 583.74
Psiquiátrico Dr. Adolfo Nieto 1652.43
Carlos María Bustamante 1752.43
Source: Prepared by the authors based on the information provided by the pharmaceuticals
Table 7.4 Shipping expenses from the main warehouse to the candidate locations
Monthly shipping
Origin Destination cost
San Martín Obispo Dr. Gustavo Baz 585.47
San Martín Obispo Hospital Municipal Bicentenario 673.46
San Martín Obispo Psiquiátrico Dr. Adolfo Nieto 582.72
San Martín Obispo Carlos María de Bustamante 709.99
Table 7.5 Daily average demand by client area

Outpatient visit clinic Demand
Acolman 110
Axapusco 110
Nopaltepec 70
Otumba 60
San Martín de las Pirámides 80
Temascalapa 120
Teotihuacan 110
4 7
Min ∑ ∑ t jk y jk (7.6.6)
j =1 k =1
Subject to:
4
∑ y jk , k = 1,…, 7 (7.6.7)
j =1
y jk ≤ z j , j = 1,…, 4; k = 1,…, 7 (7.6.8)
y jk ∈ {0,1} , z j ∈ {0,1 (7.6.9)

Table 7.6 Trip time from micro-warehouses to demand centers

Origin Destination Time (min)
Dr. Gustavo Baz Acolman 96
Dr. Gustavo Baz Axapusco 231
Dr. Gustavo Baz Nopaltepec 82
Dr. Gustavo Baz Otumba 68
Dr. Gustavo Baz San Martín de las Pirámides 84
Dr. Gustavo Baz Temascalapa 267
Dr. Gustavo Baz Teotihuacán 122
Hospital Municipal Bicentenario Acolman 211
Hospital Municipal Bicentenario Axapusco 117
Hospital Municipal Bicentenario Nopaltepec 40
Hospital Municipal Bicentenario Otumba 27
Hospital Municipal Bicentenario San Martín de las Pirámides 44
Hospital Municipal Bicentenario Temascalapa 256
Hospital Municipal Bicentenario Teotihuacán 121
Psiquiátrico Dr. Adolfo Nieto Acolman 142
Psiquiátrico Dr. Adolfo Nieto Axapusco 242
Psiquiátrico Dr. Adolfo Nieto Nopaltepec 95
Psiquiátrico Dr. Adolfo Nieto Otumba 81
Psiquiátrico Dr. Adolfo Nieto San Martín de las Pirámides 100
Psiquiátrico Dr. Adolfo Nieto Temascalapa 241
Psiquiátrico Dr. Adolfo Nieto Teotihuacán 154
Carlos María de Bustamante Acolman 303
Carlos María de Bustamante Axapusco 104
Carlos María de Bustamante Nopaltepec 12
Carlos María de Bustamante Otumba 57
Carlos María de Bustamante San Martín de las Pirámides 87
Carlos María de Bustamante Temascalapa 266
Carlos María de Bustamante Teotihuacán 188
Source: Prepared by the authors
where:
j ∈ A Set of candidate zones for warehouses
k ∈ F Set of clients
fj Set cost of operation if a warehouse is located in j
dk Demand from client k
cij Transportation cost by product unit from plant i to warehouse j
tjk Delivery time from warehouse located in j to client k
Decision variables:
xij Amount of SKUs to be delivered from the plant to the distribution center
located in j
Table 7.7 Results

SKUs sent from
Health clinic Will establish a warehouse the plant
Dr. Gustavo Baz Yes 300
Hospital Municipal Bicentenario Yes 400
Psiquiátrico Dr. Adolfo Nieto No 0
Carlos María de Bustamante No 0
Source: Prepared by the authors based on the model application results and its solution
For the formulation proposed above, the locations of the candidates and the cli-
ent areas were taken into account in the order presented in the tables. Solving the
proposed model using the packages LINGO 11 and Maple as tools, the following
results were obtained:
The ideal solution to the bi-level problem is reached in points:
x = ( 300,400 ) y1 = (1,0,0,0,1,0,1)
With:
z = (11
, ,0,0 ) , y2 = ( 0,111
, , ,0,1,0 ) , F = 2223, y3 = ( 0,0,0,0,0,0,0 ) , f = 742,
y4 = ( 0,0,0,0,0,0,0 )
With the results obtained, it is intended to optimize the number of micro-ware-

houses, as well as the way they should be supplied by establishing which pharma-
cies should be supported.
The distribution centers must be located: one at Hospital Dr. Gustavo Baz in
Tepexpan and another one in Hospital Municipal Bicentenario in Otumba (candi-
dates 1 and 2; see Table 7.7).
The first warehouse will serve the hospitals located in Acolman, San Martín de
las Pirámides, and Teotihuacán and the second Axapusco, Nopaltepec, Otumba, and
Temascalapa, all this at a cost of $ 2,223.00 (Mexican pesos).
7.6 Conclusions
In this work, a model of search in a network was constructed in such a way that
more than one objective can be considered, ordering them according to their impor-
tance, using as a base the bi-level programming. A bi-level model was developed,
considering a problem restricted by a lower level one.
The particular structure of bi-level and multilevel programs allows for the formu-
lation of a great number of practical problems, which involve a hierarchical decision
process.
First, it involves more than one objective, which allows the consideration of at
least two goals for each problem; also, consider that the answer to the objectives is
subject to the reaction of another of greater importance.
Proposing a problem with multiple objectives linked to a hierarchical relation
brings the math programming models closer to a reality, which is the intended goal
to emulate.
The main solution algorithms for discreet problems are comprehensive, separa-
tion, and relaxing numbering methods. The algorithm proposed and used for solv-
ing bi-level searching problems such as the one presented is one of separation and
relaxation. Separation consists of writing the bi-level problem as one, of only one
level, manipulating the problem structure to add the objective function of the higher
level as a boundary restriction, and with its relaxation verifying that each solution is
feasible.
Regarding computer experience, when using MAPLE 13 to solve the case study,
the maximum time to run the algorithm was 2 minutes with 40 variables, 12 of the
leader function (broken in binaries) and 28 of the follower function. Nevertheless,
with a more appropriate language, both solution times may be improved.
In general, the algorithm finds good solutions quickly when branching out sev-
eral times by iteration; this allows highlighting non-feasible solutions quickly, since
branching out one variable at a time increases significantly the computer effort.
A case study was used to show the application of the model developed and the
solution through a proposed algorithm. In the case study, the pharmaceutical enter-
prise, in charge of planning medication distribution to a series of health clinics,
considers as a priority to minimize the delivery costs of a product item, while still
considering that delivery time must be minimum, which is the requirement of the
Health Institute. The cost function’s priority is a key point in the development of the
solution; therefore, the math model proposal as bi-level allowed the solution to be
closer to the reality.
E. Aiyoshi, Shimizu, Hierarchical decentralized systems and its new solution by barrier method.
IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 11, 444–448 (1981)
G. Savard, J. Gauvin, The steepest descent direction for the nonlinear bilevel programming problem.
Technical Report G-90-37, Groupe d’ Études et de Recherche en Analyse des Décisions (1990)
G. M. Roodman, Postoptimality analysis in zero-one programming by implicit enumeration. Naval
Res. Logist. Quarterly. 19(3), 435–447 (1972)
H. Benson, On the structure and properties of a linear multilevel programming problem. J. Optim.
Theory Appl. 60, 353–373 (1989)
H. Stackelberg, Market Structure and Equilibrium (Springer-Verlag Wien, New York, 1934)
J. Bard, Optimality conditions for the bilevel programming problem. Naval Research Logistics
Quarterly 31, 13–26 (1984)
J. Bard, Some properties of the bilevel programming problem. J. Optim. Theory Appl. 68,
Technical note, 371–378 (1991)
J. Bard, Practical Bilevel Optimization. Algorithms and Applications (Kluwer Academic

Publishers, Boston, 1998)
J. F. Bard, J.E. Falk, An explicit solution to the multi-level programming problem. Comput. Oper.
Res. 9(1), 77–100 (1982)
J. Bard, J. Moore, An algorithm for the discrete bilevel programming problem. Nav. Res. Logist.
39, 419–435 (1992)
J. Braken, J. McGill, Mathematical programs with optimization problems in the constraints. Oper.
Res. 21, 21–37 (1973)
J. Outrata, Necessary optimality conditions for Stackelberg problems. J. Optim. Theory Appl. 76,
305–320 (1993)
J. Ye, D. Zhu, Optimality conditions for bi-level programming problems. Technical Report
DMS-618-IR, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria (1993)
L. Vicente, P. Calamai, Geometry and local optimality conditions for bi-level programs with qua-
dratic strictly convex lower level. Technical Report #198-O-150294, Department of Systems
Design Engineering, University of Waterloo (1994)
O. Ben-Ayed, C. Blair, Computational difficulties of bilevel linear programming. Oper. Res. 38,
556–560 (1990)
P. Hansen, B. Jaumard, G. Savard, New branch and bound rules for linear bilevel programming.
SIAM J. Sci. Stat. Comput. 13, 1194–1217 (1992)
R. Jeroslow, The polynomial hierarchy and simple model for competitive analysis for competitive
analysis. Math. Program. 32, 146–164 (1985)
S. Dempe, A necessary and sufficient optimality condition for bilevel programming problems.
Optimization 25, 341–354 (1992)
S. Dempe, Foundations of Bilevel Programming (Kluwer Academic Publishers, United States of
America, 2002)
U. Wen, Mathematical methods for multilevel linear programming. PhD thesis, Department of
Industrial Engineering, State University of New York at Buffalo (1981)
W. Bialas, M. Karwan, J. Shaw, “A parametric complementary pivot approach for two-level linear
programming.” State University of New York at Buffalo. 57 (1980)
W. Candler, R. Norton, Multilevel programming. Technical Report 20, World Bank Development
Research Center, Washington D.C. (1977)
Y. Chen, M. Florian, The nonlinear bilevel programming problem: A general formulation and opti-
mality conditions. Technical Report CRT-794, Centre de Recherché sur les Transports (1991)
Y. Ishisuka, Optimality conditions for quasi-differentiable programs with applications to two-level
optimization. SIAM J. Control. Optim. 26, 1388–1398 (1988)
Z. Bi, P. Calami, Optimality conditions for a class of bilevel programming problems. Technical
Report #191-O-191291, Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of
Waterloo (1991)
Chapter 8
Determining the Demand in Inventory
Policies for Mexican Companies Using
Fuzzy Sets
Ricardo Aceves-García and Zaida E. Alarcón-Bernal
8.1 Introduction
The management of inventories is one of the most basic links in the supply chain,
and the optimization forms part of a greater planning process within the chain.
While this may not be the only one, it is the most important because the rest of the
processes (distribution, limits, production, and materials) mostly depend on the
inventory strategy chosen.
If we consider the main components of a system of inventories to be demand
pattern, supply pattern, operation restrictions, request policies, and total inventory
cost, it is possible to establish that due to these components, inventories are used as
buffers between supply processes and demand.
The main differences between these two processes are internal factors such as
customer service, scale economies, and easiness of operation, which depend on the
decisions taken by the administrators or inventory, production, and sales managers,
and external factors such as demand, supply process, and delivery time, which gen-
erally are buried under uncertainty.
The easiest way to avoid uncertainty of these processes, which has been for the
demand, is to keep more units than those anticipated in inventory (security inven-
tory). For restocking supply, keeping a security inventory may justify minimizing
risk. As for the delivery time, that is, the time lapse between issuing an order and
This chapter used the research of Flores Brito (2010).
R. Aceves-García (*)
Mexico City, Mexico
e-mail: aceves@unam.mx
Z. E. Alarcón-Bernal
Department of Biomedical Systems, Faculty of Engineering, National Autonomous
University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico

136 R. Aceves-García and Z. E. Alarcón-Bernal
receiving the product, also keeping a security inventory may guarantee minimizing
uncertainty.
Considering the importance of determining demand in inventory control, since
its behavior is little known, it is possible to establish that uncertainty originates in
the lack of information or historical data about the behavior of the same, as well as
there is difficulty because of this lack to estimate a distribution of possibilities func-
tion, which represents it.
As a result, the effective determination of demand is one of the main problems of
enterprises, which generally is specified based on the experience and judgments
subject by the administration, linguistically described as “the approximate demand
is of b units” (Behret and Kahraman 2011).
8.1.1 echniques Known and Used for Controlling Inventories

T
in Mexico
In 2007 the corporation Corporate Resources Management (CRM) conducted a

study on the Mexican industry about techniques known and used for controlling the
system of inventories. The results were published in Campos (2010), where corpo-
rations of various economic sectors and different sizes participated (39% large, 37%
medium, and the remaining small and micro), obtaining the following results.
Regarding the best known techniques, the results were Point of Reorder 92.7%,
Economic Order (EOQ) 87.2%, Material Requirements Planning (MRP) 78.0%,
Maximum and Minimum 75.6%, Periodical Reviews 67.5%, and System
Kanban 50%.
In regard to the most used, the study concluded that 90.2% preferred Point of
Reorder for the planning of inventories, a very simple technique which is better for
materials that show a constant demand, a very unusual characteristic in today’s mar-
kets, and its result generates excess and lack of materials; next was the technique of
Economic Order (EOQ) with 76.9%, then Maximum and Minimum with 65.9%,
and, lastly, Periodical Reviews with 37.5%.
On the other hand, only 58.5% has used the MRP technique, which requires a
certain control over the management of planning variables (forecast, delivery time,
and lot size), as well as applying a historical statistic of data, to be updating
information.
According to this study, the best known and used in Mexico are Point of Reorder
and Economic Order, simple determining techniques of low maintenance with char-
acteristics that are rarely found in the real world, which do not guarantee good ser-
vice to the corporation.
The low use of MRP (Material Requirements Planning) technique continues to
draw attention, even though the corporations that use it, generally the variables that
supply the said system (such as the case of inventory of security, forecast, or lot-
ting), are not properly calculated by a total lack of knowledge of the various models
8 Determining the Demand in Inventory Policies for Mexican Companies Using Fuzzy… 137
and techniques of inventories administration; likewise, demand behaviors are not

properly analyzed, and it is assumed as known and constant. Inventory levels are
also not updated regularly.
Other important aspect discussed in these article is the little or nonexistent fre-
quency with which it provides maintenance and updates to the dates and variables
of the inventories system; for this action to be considered, there is an additional cost
in Mexican companies, a delicate aspect in the administration of the same.
Consequently, the safety inventories and the quantity of materials to be ordered are
generally not adequate.
Besides, in this study (Campos 2010), the frequency of use was also determined;
and about this concept, two perspectives were analyzed: the first one refers to the
percentage of the controlled parts for the technique and second, the percentage of
total sum of all inventories.
The first perspective, Point of Reorder, controls the largest volume of materials,
while the second, Periodical Reviews, controls the least amount of parts.
As far as the sum of inventories is concerned, the study showed that MRP con-
trols from 10% to 25% of the units, which in total value equals 40–60%, which
indicates that MRP is used to control products that most impact costs.
Consequently, the inventories models which will be used in this job are MRP and
EOQ, being the most utilized in the Mexican industry. The former is applied to
control products that impact costs the most, and the second to control the largest
volume of materials. The strategy of using fuzzy sets to determine demand was also
proposed, which is one of the main problems that Mexican companies have when
managing their systems of inventories, which generally are estimated based on sub-
jective experience and judgments, since it is considered an additional cost to pro-
vide maintenance and updates to the data and system variables. So these models will
be presented and resolved considering the demand as a fuzzy number, allowing for
the incorporation the experience and empirical knowledge that we have to deter-
mine estimation and behavior.
8.1.2 ata from Inventory Records, Problems with Uncertainty

D
and EOQ and MRP Models
Inventory control is an important field in the supply chain. An adequate regulation

of the same may significantly improve company profit. In 1913, the Economic
Order Quantity (EOQ) equation was introduced by Harris (1990). Since then, a
great number of academic works have been published which describe numerous
basic model variables EOQ. For a review, see Brahimi et al. (2006).
The EOQ model tends to have few parameters, and all data entries to the model
are assumed to be known, so the amount of the order which minimizes the total cost
function may easily be determined. This model also assumes that demand charac-
teristics and delivery time are known with certainty, which renders having a simple
and direct mathematical structure to model demand during delivery time.

Nevertheless, the lack of culture in place to gather data and maintain history of the
same makes operation of this model difficult.
In the same fashion as in traditional literature about inventories, the fuzzy
Economical Order Quantity (EOQ) model has provided a genesis in the evolution of
fuzzy models of inventories. According to Guiffrida, Alfred L. Kent State (2010),
six works have discussed the basic EOQ model, under different parameter schemes.
The following table shows this review, where C indicates the model with non-fuzzy
parameter/attribute and F denotes the model with fuzzy parameter/attribute.
The model MRP has received much attention, and there is plenty of literature
about it (Orlicky 1975). Nevertheless, the classic solution procedures that have been
used do not optimize production decisions. Having as the objective to count with
optimum solutions to minimize costs, the MRP problem has been studied through
mathematical programming, considering the problem with a determinist structure,
which allows for having a more manageable model.
MRP has been used primarily when there is a dependency between items’
demands; the use of this model of control of inventories allows for the reduction of
their levels and may predict the material requirements for the horizon of planning
(Table 8.1).
However, its implementation requires precise and complete information about
the demand of materials and production planning. Having this information implies
that companies manage control and registry of activities, which is the reason why
few Mexican companies use this model.
For the fuzzy model of Material Requirements Planning (MRP), only a few
research works have been accomplished. In Lee and Wu (2006), the application of
Fuzzy Sets Theory is to the problem of lot size in an MRP system of one stage. In
Mula et al. (2008), is developed a new lineal programming model, labeled NNRPD,
for short-term production planning in a MRP manufacturing environment with
capacity restrictions, multi-product, multi-level, and multi-period. In Vasant (2004),
a curve is used as a belonging function for the selection of a mixture of products in
a chocolate factory, where the information available is imprecise or fuzzy. In Mula
et al. (2007), a model of optimization is formulated which takes into account the
uncertainty that exists in the demand in the market, as well as pending orders
Table 8.1 Fuzzy models for EOQ

Parameter of entry quantity Order Maintenance Annual
Model to order cost cost demand
Park (1987) C C
Vujosevic (1996) C C
Lee and Yao (1999) F C
Yao et al.(2000) F F
Yao and Chiang C F
(2003)
Wang et al. (2007) C C
Source: Alfred L. Guiffrida, Kent State University. Cap 8. Fuzzy, Inventory Models
(delayed), the concept of possibility programming is used. Such focus allows for the
modeling of ambiguity of the market’s demand, information of costs, etc., which
could be present in the production planning systems. In Pendharkar (1997), the
fuzzy dynamic programming is used to solve a problem of inventories with produc-
tion programming, where the linguistic states, such as “stock must be zero at the end
of the planning horizon” and “reduce, as much as possible, production capacity,” are
used to describe administratively the fuzzy aspirations for the inventory and the
reduction in production capacity, of a possible market pullout.
Then, in both models, it is required to have several parameters for its perfor-
mance; in this work, demand is considered as the primary parameter to be known.
Therefore, it is necessary to have with information to determine it or with a strategy
by which it can be estimated.
A strategy to consider for the inventories control systems with this problem is the
theory of fuzzy sets, which was introduced by Zadeh (1975) and can be applied to
model the demand behavior more realistically and use empirical and subjective
knowledge of the administration.
8.2 conomic Order Quantity (EOQ) Model with Fuzzy

E
Demand, Without Production or Deficit
The Economic Order Quantity models, as already mentioned, represent in Mexico a

considerable percentage among the most widely used, still present in companies,
particularly micro, small, and medium. The basic EOQ calculates the reposition of
order size for an inventory system; for a determined item, see Soodong and Noble
(2000). The average CP(Q) cost depends on the amount of Q orders that are done to
cover the demand and the number of units stored. In the following figure, we can
observe how CP(Q) is convex function. And in Q* the values of costs for maintain-
ing inventory and for ordering are the same (Fig. 8.1).
Assumed in the model are the following: The demand for items is a known and
positive constant. The delivery time is zero, meaning that any time frame done is
received immediately. And the involved costs are also known. The behavior of the
policy of inventories for an Economic Order Quantity model, without production or
deficit, is presented in the following figure (Fig. 8.2).
The diagram presented in Fig. 8.3 was the result of the analysis conducted with
the solution of several examples when using different EOQ models and different
fuzzy numbers; in the determination of demand, see Flores Brito (2010). The appli-
cation of proposal stages, for the incorporation of demand, as a fuzzy number in the
Economic Order, allows for the solution systematically, bringing the results in a
simple way and facilitating its analysis.
Stages of the solving process:
(a) According to the data that you have in the problem and at the behavior of the
storage level, the model to be applied is decided.
# Storage Cost Average Ordering

2370
2133
1896
1659
1422
1185
948
711
474
237
0
95 285 475 665 855 1045 1235 1425 1615 1805 1995
Fig. 8.1 Graphic of the average cost in an EOQ model. (Source: Hillier and Lieberman. Mac
Graw Hill. Quantitative methods for administration, Cap. 11)
Storage Level
Time
T T T
Fig. 8.2 Model behavior with no production or deficit. (Source: Hillier and Lieberman. Mac Graw
Hill. Quantitative methods for administration, Cap. 11)
(b) The definition of demand as a fuzzy number implies that knowledge is within
certain information values. For example, if demand is defined as a triangular
fuzzy number, it means its value can be found within three data (minimum, the
most likely, and the maximum). The definition of a fuzzy number can be deter-
mined, through the membership function, or for its graphic representation. It is
necessary to get values for the α-cuts; at this point, it is necessary to determine
the “step length,” which means the increase that α − cuts will have, where / can
be found between 0 and 1. The value of the increase will imply the precision of
the calculations.
(c) It is recommended to do the calculations separately, this is to say, for the equa-
tions which determine the optimum policy, first making the calculations that do
not include the part of the fuzziness; once these values are obtained, the
fuzziness is incorporated. For this point we will have many values for each vari-
Select the model

of Economic Order
Define demad as a fuzzy

number
Add to the other

Using the
calculations the fuzziness
α-cuts
of the demand
Calculate the values for the

variables to be determined
as fuzzy numbers
Deviations
analysis
Calculate the Using the

approximations for each α-cuts
one of the other variables
End
Fig. 8.3 Proposed stages to solve the model of EOQ, with the con demand as a fuzzy number.
(Source: Prepared by the authors)
able, according to the step length of the α − cuts that have been decided on; this
is due to the fact that calculations have been made for each value of the demand
related to the α − cuts.
(d) When calculating each variable, a fuzzy number will be obtained, which origi-
nated from the incorporation of the demand as a fuzzy number; in this way if the
demand has been defined as a triangular fuzzy number (TFN), the results for the
other variables will originate a TFN as well. It is recommended to make graphs
for each variable, as this allows for results verification.
(e) Once the calculation has been done, using the demand as a fuzzy number (FN),
it is necessary to carry out an approximation to the obtained FN; the difference
between the calculations and approximations is that the calculations are
obtained using the equations and the demand as a FN, while the approximations
are obtained using only the values which resulted from the calculations and
which define the FN, calculating the α-cuts; that is to say, now each variable is
considered as an FN. The aforementioned allows for a definite result for certain
values; if the demand is a trapezoidal fuzzy number (TrFN), then they will be
obtained for the other variables TrFN. Differences between the calculated val-
ues and the obtained approximations can be observed in the graphs.
(f) When we have the graphs where we observe the calculated values and the
approximations for each one of the variables, we can get to the end of the pro-
cess if the differences between one curve and another one are not representa-
tives; otherwise, it is recommended to make an analysis of the deviations’ curves.
Following is an example of the Economic Order model without production and
without deficit, considering the unknown demand, which is solved as a diffuse EOQ
model, following the previous stages.
Be the following data: d=?, units/year; k = 25 um/order; and C = 6.25 um/unit.
Where h is 20% of the purchase cost as per the company’s policy, therefore h = (20)
(6.25) = 1.25 um*unit/year. To determine the optimum amount per order that should
be used to minimize the costs, establish what is the average cost associated with the
optimum order amount, specifying how many orders would the company making
per year.
For this case it is considered that the demand is not clearly known, which hap-
pens in various real situations. It is admitted that the demand is a triangular fuzzy
number (stage 2) in the following manner:
˜
d = ( a,b,c )
˜
d = ( 5800,8500,13700 )
Its membership function is defined as:
 0, if x < 5800
 x − 5800
 , if 5800 ≤ x ≤ 8500
 2700
µd ( x ) =  (8.1)
 − x − 13700 , if 8500 ≤ x ≤ 13700
 5200
 0, if x > 13700

And can be written for the α − cuts
d∝ = 5800 + ( 8500 − 5800 ) α ,13700 − (13700 − 8500 ) α  , α ∈ [ 0,1] (8.2)
Now the calculations for the α − cuts are carried out, with an increment of 0.1, from
0 to 1 (Table 8.2).
The way to do the calculations consists in solving the part that is not fuzzy and
incorporating the fuzzy part after (stage 3); it is important to mention that at the end
a new fuzzy number for each variable will be obtained.
For example, to determine the required amount (Q), the area which involves the
ordering cost will be solved (k) and the cost to maintain in inventory (h). On the
other hand, the fuzzy number d will be calculated, this last calculation will be
Table 8.2 Calculations of the α dα

α − cuts
0 5800 13700
0.1 6070 13180
0.2 6340 12660
0.3 6610 12140
0.4 6880 11620
0.5 7150 11100
0.6 7420 10580
0.7 7690 10060
0.8 7960 9540
0.9 8230 9020
1 8500 8500
carried out for the α − cuts, and precision will depend on the person doing the
calculations. In this case, the increment of α is 0.1.
For each determined variable (stage 4), the graph from the obtained fuzzy num-
ber is presented, considering the demand as TFN. Subsequently an approximation is
presented, which means taking into account the three real numbers that define the
number and make the ∝ − cuts, as opposed to obtaining the values by calculating
with fuzzy number d.
Determining the amount of the order is obtained by incorporating the fuzzy part
and the non-fuzzy part.
2k
Q= ⋅ 5800 + ( 2700 ) α ,13700 − ( 5200 ) α (8.3)
h
In Table 8.3, the obtained results are shown for the order size.
From Table 8.3, it can be observed, in the first column, the values for α with a
step length of 0.1; in columns 2 and 3, the results of the application of the formula
Q are presented, considering the demand as a fuzzy number; and columns 4 and 5
show the results of the triangular approximations (using the limits obtained from the
calculations of columns 2 and 3); this can be represented as follows.
The fuzzy number is obtained, whose triangular approximation (stage 5) is:
˜
Q = ( 482,583,740 )
In the graphs, it is observed that the difference between the Q value obtained from
the calculations, using the TFN of the demand, and the value of the triangle approxi-
mation is minimum, as shown in the following figure.
In the same way that Q was obtained, the value for the following variables is
calculated (continuation from stage 4); next the results from the calculations are
presented and the corresponding graphs (Fig. 8.4).
Table 8.3 Triangular calculations and approximates of Q

˜
Q  482 + (101) α , 740 − (157 ) α 
α Q
0 482 740 482 740
0.1 493 726 492 725
0.2 504 712 502 709
0.3 514 697 512 693
0.4 525 682 522 677
0.5 535 666 532 662
0.6 545 651 543 646
0.7 555 634 553 630
0.8 564 618 563 615
0.9 574 601 573 599
1 583 583 583 583
m(Q) 1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
Fig. 8.4 Graphic representation of Q. (Source: Prepared by the authors with data from Table 8.3)
The length of period (T) and the number of requests (N) are variables which are
demand-driven; however, the value of N is obtained, using the value of Q previously
calculated.
The obtained results are presented for the N variable in Table 8.4.
˜ ˜
The N value has a triangular approximation same as N = ( 2,15,19 ) . Whereof,
the graphic representation is Fig. 8.5.
˜
Table 8.4 Calculation and triangular approximations of N
dα
N= ˜
Q N = 12 + ( 3 ) α ,19 − ( 4 ) α 
α
0 12 19 12 19
0.1 12 18 12 18
0.2 13 18 13 18
0.3 13 17 13 17
0.4 13 17 13 17
0.5 13 17 13 17
0.6 14 16 14 16
0.7 14 16 14 16
0.8 14 15 14 15
0.9 14 15 14 15
1 15 15 15 15
m(N) 1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
10 12 14 16 18 20
Fig. 8.5 Graphic representation of number of requests (N). (Source: Prepared by the authors with
data from Table 8.4)
In the same way for T, it was necessary to calculate it without the fuzzy part and
do the calculations after, including the fuzzy part. The results from the calculations
for α − cuts are represented in the following table, followed by the results of the
approximations of T as a fuzzy number.
The results are represented graphically in Fig. 8.5.
Finally, the average cost of the inventory, which also depends on the demand, is
defined as follows as TFN.
The graphic representation is shown in the following figure (Fig. 8.6).
T Triangular Approximation
m('I') 1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
0
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
05
05
06
06
07
07
08
08
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
Fig. 8.6 Graphic representation of the length period (N). (Source: Prepared by the authors with
8.2.1 Analysis of Results
The comparison between the data obtained and the fuzzy numbers determined by
calculating approximations using α − cuts has been presented in the graphs and
tables shown. It can be observed that the approximation is acceptable; therefore, it
is considered necessary on this context to calculate general expressions for the devi-
ation between the real curves and its approximations which, on the other hand, give
rise to more complicated Eqs. (8.14); for this example, the result can be written as
follows:
Q = ( 482,583,740 )CP
ˆ ( Q ) = ( 602,729,925 ) (8.4)

T = ( 0.054,0.0686,0.083 ) N = (12,15,19 ) (8.5)
From the previous results, it can be said that the most probable value for Q is
583 units, while the smallest and greater values for the size of the request are 482
and 749, respectively. For CP (Q), T, and N, a similar description is given, as the
calculations depend on the same triangular fuzzy number (TFN) (Fig. 8.7).
Table 8.5 Calculations and triangular approximations of T
2k 1
T= ⋅ ˜
h dα T = 0.054 + ( 0.014 ) α , 0.083 − ( 0.015 ) α 
α
0 0.08305 0.05403 0.054 0.083
0.1 0.08118 0.05509 0.055 0.082
0.2 0.07943 0.05621 0.057 0.080
0.3 0.07779 0.05740 0.058 0.079
0.4 0.07625 0.05867 0.060 0.077
0.5 0.07480 0.06003 0.061 0.076
0.6 0.07342 0.06149 0.063 0.074
0.7 0.07212 0.06306 0.064 0.073
0.8 0.07089 0.06475 0.066 0.071
0.9 0.06972 0.06659 0.067 0.070
1 0.06860 0.06860 0.069 0.069
CP Triangular Approximation of CP
m(CP) 1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0 CP(Q)
580 630 680 730 780 830 880 930
Fig. 8.7 Graphic representation of CP, which depends on Q. (Source: Prepared by the authors with
8.3 RP Model Considering the Demand

M
of a Fuzzy Number
In 1947 George Dantzig developed the simplex algorithm to solve linear program-
ming (LP) problems. This technique is applied to a variety of problems in the fields
of industry, health, economy, transportation, etc. For this reason, linear program-
ming is a well-studied area and one of the most used tools by companies.
Table 8.6 Calculations and triangular approximations of CP
˜  36852 + (17002 ) α ,

CP  Q  = 2hk ⋅ dα + cdα CP ( Q ) =  
α   86550 − ( 32696 ) α 
0 36852 86550 36852 86550
0.1 38553 83283 38552 83281
0.2 40254 80015 40252 80011
0.3 41955 76746 41953 76741
0.4 43656 73477 43653 73472
0.5 45356 70208 45353 70202
0.6 47056 66938 47053 66932
0.7 48756 63668 48753 63663
0.8 50455 60397 50454 60393
0.9 52155 57126 52154 57124
1 53854 53854 53854 53854
The application of fuzzy sets in mathematical programming for the most part con-
sists of transforming the classic theories in equivalent fuzzy models (see Kaufmann and
Gil 1987). In practical situations, for a typical linear programming problem, it is not
reasonable to demand that the objective function or the restrictions be specified in a
precise way; in such situations, some type of fuzzy linear programming should be used.
Fuzzy or flexible linear programming (FLP) can be applied in different cases,
for example, when the right side of the restrictions is a fuzzy number or when the
technological coefficients are fuzzy numbers or when both previous cases are pres-
ent. This work only focuses on analyzing the first case, due to the fact that the
parameter to be determined is the demand and corresponds to the right side of a
restriction. Such types of restrictions are called flexible restrictions.
A linear programming problem with flexible restrictions is defined as follows.
Maximize
n
z = ∑c j x j (8.6)
j =1
Subject to
n
∑a
j =1
ij x j ≤ Bi , i = 1, 2, 3,…, m (8.7)
x j ≥ 0, j = 1, 2, 3,…, n (8.8)
Considering that Bi is a fuzzy number of trapezoidal form (TrFN), with the following
membership function:
 1, x ≤ di

 − x + di + pi
Bi =  , di ≤ x ≤ di + pi (8.9)
 pi
 0, x ≥ di + pi

where x ∈ ℜ .
As can be seen in Fig. 8.8, the graphic form of the fuzzy number is linear and
descendent of di to (di + pi)di.
Once the type of fuzzy number that will be used to represent the parameter under
uncertainty has been defined, to solve FLP, it is necessary to calculate the fuzzy set
of optimal values; thus, it is necessary to calculate the superior limit (zu) and inferior
(zl) for the objective function. The way to calculate these limits is found when solv-
ing a problem LP for each z, as follows:
LP problem to obtain zl
Maximize
n
z = ∑c j x j (8.10)
j =1
subject to
n
∑a
j =1
ij x j ≤ di , i = 1, 2, 3,…, m (8.11)
x j ≥ 0, j = 1, 2, 3,…, n (8.12)
LP problem to obtain zu
Maximize
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2 pi
0
0 di di+pi
Fig. 8.8 Fuzzy number for the FLP problem. (Source: Mula et al. (2007))
n
z = ∑c j x j (8.13)
j =1
subject to
n
∑a
j =1
ij x j ≤ di + pi , i = 1, 2, 3,…, m (8.14)
x j ≥ 0, j = 1, 2, 3,…, n (8.15)
It can be seen that each new LP considers the limits of the fuzzy number. The fuzzy
set of optimal values is represented by G, which is defined as follows:
 1, zu ≤ CX

 CX − z
G ( x) =  l
, zl < CX < zu (8.16)
z −
 u l z
 0, CX ≤ zl

Introducing a new variable, λ where λ ∈ [0,1], we have the following LP problem

(see Zimmermann 1993).
Maximize
λ (8.17)
subject to
CX − zl
λ≤ (8.18)
zu − zl
n
λ pi + ∑aij x j ≤ di + pi , i = 1, 2, 3,…, m (8.19)
j =1
λ x j ≥ 0, j = 1, 2, 3,…, n (8.20)
where λ represents the maximum grade of membership, inside the fuzzy set of opti-
mal values (G(x)), value which varies between zl and zu (see Martínez Fonseca 2001).
Reordering the objective function, we obtain the following:
Maximize
λ (8.21)
subject to
λ ( zu − zl ) − CX ≤ zl (8.22)
n
λ pi + ∑aij x j ≤ di + pi , i = 1, 2, 3,…, m (8.23)
j =1
An MRP model is presented next, considering the flexible restrictions, that is, as a
fuzzy linear programming model. Thereafter, a numeric example is presented,
which allows for an analysis of the results, considering the demand of a number
under uncertainty. To solve it, the material studied in this section will be applied.
The following model was proposed in (Kaufmann and Gil 1987). However, for
the purpose of this work, some modifications have been done. As observed, the
model handles capacity and demand restrictions; in demand restrictions, the restric-
tion is balance between what we have, what is owed, and what is required.
For capacity restriction, the model includes overtime costs and idle time; how-
ever, such restriction may not contemplate such terms, if the company that utilizes
it does not cover such costs or if it is not required to analyze them in the system.
Therefore, capacity restriction will be defined only according to the time required
to produce the item or items and by the produced quantity in a period, which cannot
go over the available capacity in such period.
The model’s formulation is as follows:
Minimize
I T R T
z = ∑∑ ( cpi pit + cii INVTit + crd i Rd it ) + ∑∑ ( ctocrt Tocc rt + ctex rt Tex rt ) (8.24)
j =1 t =1 r =1 t =1
subject to
INVTi ,t −1 − Rd i ,t −1 + pi ,t −TSi + RPi ,t − INVTi ,t + Rd i ,t = di ,t ; ∀i, ∀t (8.25)
Rd i ,T = 0; ∀i (8.26)
pit , INVTi ,t , Rd i ,t , Toc rt , Tex rt ≥ 0; ∀i, ∀r , ∀t (8.27)
The objective function of this model includes, as first part, the minimization of the
sum of the costs, such as costs for producing the produced quantity, inventory costs
for material quantity found in inventory, and the costs for missing material for
each item.
In the second part of the function, the sum of the costs originated by overtime
and idle time is minimized by the resources.
The first restriction is to cover the demand, which is a balance between what
comes in, what goes out, and what is withheld of the product (i), during a period of
time (t).
The second restriction is necessary for when the company has a limited capacity,
as it includes the capacity to produce the resources, in a given case that the company
includes overtime policies, are considered into this restriction.
The third restriction for each product (i) allows for the delays to be covered in the
last period and, lastly, the non-negative restrictions.
Considering a fuzzy number does exist which represents the uncertainty and as a
consequence, the demand’s behavior is as follows.
 1, if x ≤ di

 − x + di + pi
Bi ( x ) =  , if di ≤ x ≤ di + pi (8.28)
 pi
 0, if x ≥ di + pi

The model is defined as shown below, where we can see that the objective function
and the demand restriction are modified; the other restrictions are defined in the
same way.
Maximize
λ (8.29)
Subject to
I T
λ ( zu − zi ) − ∑∑ ( cpi pit + cii INVTit + crd i Rd it )
j =1 t =1
(8.30)
R T
+ ∑∑ ( cttoc rt Toc rt + ctex rt Tex rt ) ≤ − zi
r =1 t =1
( )
λ d(it )u − d(it )l + INVTi ( t −1) − Rd i ( t −1) + pit − TSi + RPit − INVTit + Rd it
(8.31)
≤ dit ; ∀i, ∀t
I
∑AR
i =1
ir Pit + Toc rt − Tex rt = CAPrt , ∀r , ∀t (8.32)
Rd iT = 0; ∀i (8.33)
pit , INVTit , Rd it , Toc rt , Tex rt ≥ 0; ∀i, ∀r , ∀t (8.34)
Following is an example of the MRP model, considering the unknown demand and
without capacity restrictions; the problem is solved as a fuzzy MRP model. The
modifications that were done in the objective function and the restrictions that cover
the demand are explained, and finally the obtained result is presented, considering
the demand as a fuzzy number. Due to the extension of the modified code, such code
is not presented. The software utilized to solve it was LINGO 6.0 (LINGO/PC s.f.).
The problem considers 11 items, of which only one is the final product; to build
such item, it is necessary to mix and assemble with the scrap items. In the following
figure, the list of materials is introduced (Fig. 8.9).
MESA
1 Producto Final
Productos
intermedios
MEZCLATINTILLA PINTURAACABADO MESASINACABAR
2 11 3
Productos
ALCOHOL TINTILLA ROBLE ROBLE Cobón CLAVOS UA
básicos
9 10 7 8 5 4 6
Fig. 8.9 Materials to produce a table. (Source: Mula et al. (2007))
The demand for the final product for the following four periods is shown in
Table 8.7.
The data presented in this problem is estimated data. For example, production
capacity restrictions are not considered; what is considered is to cover the demand
and to fulfill product production due to other subproducts.
In Table 8.8, costs of production, storage, and scraps for each product are pre-
sented, as well as the initial inventory. The example does not consider material
delivery for scheduled receiving.
With this data, the model can be formulated to solve it with LINGO. The number
of periods modeled are T = 1, 2, 3, 4; the number of products is 11, for which I = 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. The objective function seeks to minimize the sum of the
costs, for which this is defined as follows: (cost to produce the product i times the
production of i) + (cost for inventory of i times the inventory of i) + (cost for scraps
of i times scraps of i) for everything i and for everything t.
The variables are defined for all the products and for all the periods, for example,
p11 means the production of the product i = 1 in the period t = 1, variable inv34 means
the inventory of the product i = 3 in the period t = 4, and so on.
As observed in the previous model, restrictions were added which allow for the
determination of the demand of the products, which depend of the final product. For
each product i, four restrictions were added to cover the demand, of t = 1...4. The
characteristics of the model are that there are a total of 131 variables and 57 restric-
tions. The model was solved in 50 iterations, resulting in a value in the objective
function of $ 951,824.00 (Mexican pesos).
Table 8.7 Demand for the Period Final product

final product for the
1 100
four periods
2 160
3 160
4 240
Table 8.8 Costs and initial inventory of the products

Product Cost to produce $ Cost to store $ Cost for scraps $ Initial inventory (units)
1 100 4 2 0
2 40 5 8 0
3 30 5 2 0
4 2 0.3 5 250
5 10 5 5 10
6 10 3 7 10
7 120 6.48 58 15
8 130 6.48 58 15
9 50 2.22 2 5
10 70 2.22 0 10
11 100 2.22 25 5
8.3.1 Demand as a Fuzzy Number
The use of the demand as a fuzzy number means that modifications need to be
made, so it is necessary to add a new variable and to modify the restrictions of the
demand. For this, the model for each one of the limits needs to be solved.
Obtain the differences and solve the model again. First, it is necessary to define
the demand as a fuzzy number; in such case, it is defined as a trapezoidal fuzzy
number. Then the objective function’s limits are calculated, to alter define a model
which includes both limits in the restrictions.
For the period t = 1, the demand behaves as shown in the following figure
(Fig. 8.10).
With membership function, where x ∈ ℜ
 1, if x ≤ 100
 − x + 250

Bi ( x ) =  , if 100 ≤ x ≤ 250 (8.35)
 150
 0, if x ≥ 250
For the following periods, the data are shown in Table 8.9.
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2 150
0
0 100 250
Fig. 8.10 Behavior of the demand for period t = 1. (Source: Elaborated by the authors)
Table 8.9 Data per period Period di di + pi

2 160 280
3 160 280
4 240 360
The following modification is made on one of the restrictions.
i =1 (8.36)
=
inv10 0=
, rd10 0, inv14 = 0 (8.37)
X f ∗ (150 ) + ( inv10 − rd10 + p11 − inv11 ) ≤ d11 (8.38)
X f ∗ (120 ) + ( inv11 − rd11 + p12 − inv12 ) ≤ d12 (8.39)
X f ∗ (120 ) + ( inv12 − rd12 + p13 − inv13 ) ≤ d13 (8.40)
X f ∗ (120 ) + ( inv13 − rd13 + p14 − inv14 ) ≤ d14 (8.41)
As observed in the previous restrictions, the value found in parenthesis is the result
of the difference between the limits of the fuzzy number. Letter x is equal to the
Greek letter λ (new variable). The value of the right is the superior limit.
For the following restrictions, the same procedure is carried out. It is necessary
to consider that the demand of the other products depends on the demand of product
1; thus, in the model, the value in parenthesis is defined by the inferior demand and
the demand with the growth.
The objective function changes to a function of maximizing the new variable,
and the previous changes, using the zu and zl.
The modified model has the following characteristics, 132 variables and 59
restrictions, and was solved in 54 iterations. The value of the objective function is $
940,077.54 (Mexican pesos).
By comparing the results, it can be observed that a better solution was obtained,
by making the restrictions more flexible.
8.4 Conclusions
From the analysis of this work, it can be concluded that in the Mexican companies,
the use of models for inventory administration is a problem, because they generally
don’t have databases to administer such models and they see this as an additional
expense for the company. They use the experience and empirical knowledge of the
ones in charge of inventory administration to determine any necessary parameter for
decision-making, specifically to estimate the demand, and generally the security
inventories and the amount of requested materials are excessive.
As established in this study, a simple tool, of easy application and not so costly,
which allows for the solution of this problem of Mexican companies, is the fuzzy
sets. With such tool it is possible to determine the demand for inventory systems,
even when there is no statistical information, but incorporating the experience and
knowledge of the administration as empirical information.
Since it is very important to determine the demand and its behavior in the inven-
tory control, using fuzzy sets to estimate it proves to be a very promising alternative
for the Mexican industry.
References
H. Behret, C. Kahraman, A fuzzy optimization model for single-period inventory problem.

Proceeding of the World Congress on Engineering, Vol. 11, 6–8 July, London, U.K. (2011)
N. Brahimi, S. Dauzere-Peres, N. Najid, A. Nordli, Single item lot sizing problems. Eur. J. Oper.
Res. 168(1), 1–16 (2006)
J. Campos, Arte en la administración de inventarios de materias primas. (2010). Online http://
www.logistica.enfasis.com/notas/7284-arte-la-administracion-inventarios-materiasprimas,
consulting date: May 26
B.B. Flores Brito, MRP y EOQ bajo un entorno de incertidumbre aplicando conjuntos bor-
rosos. Tesis para obtener el grado de maestría. Programa de Posgrado en Ingeniería.
UNAM. Noviembre (2010)
Guiffrida, Alfred L. Kent State University Kent, Ohio, Chapter 8: Fuzzy inventory models, in
Inventory Management: Non-Classical Views, ed. by M. Y. Jaber, (CRC Press, Boca Raton,
2010), pp. 173–190
F. Harris, How many parts to make at once. Factory, The Magazine of Management, 1913, 10(2):
135–136, 152; reprinted in Operations Research. 38(6), 947–950 (1990)
A. Kaufmann, J. Gil, Técnicas operativas de gestión para el tratamiento de la incertidumbre
(Hispano Europea, S. A, España, 1987)
H. Lee, J. Wu, A study on inventory replenishment policies in a two-echelon supply chain system.
Comput. Ind. Eng. 51(2), 257–263 (2006)
P. Martínez Fonseca, Conjuntos Borrosos y Algunas Aplicaciones (Tesis UNAM, México, 2001)
J. Mula, R. Poler, J.P. Garcia, Material requirement planning with fuzzy constraints and fuzzy
coefficients. Fuzzy Set. Syst. 158, 783–793 (2007). no. 150
J. Mula, R. Poler, J.P. Garcia-Sabater, Capacity and material requirement planning modelling by
comparing deterministic and fuzzy models. Int. J. Prod. Res. 46(20) (2008)
J. Orlicky, Material Requirements Planning (McGraw Hill, London, 1975)
P.C. Pendharkar, A fuzzy linear programming model for production planning in coal mines.
Comput. Oper. Res. 24, 1141–1149 (1997)
C. Soodong, J. Noble, Determination of economic order quantities (EOQ) in an integrated material
flow system. Int. J. Prod. Res. 38(14), 3203–3226 (2000). Taylor and Francis Ltd
P. Vasant, Optimization in Product Mix Problem Using Fuzzy Linear Programming. Department
of Mathematics, American Degree Program Nilai International College Malaysia, 1–25 (2004)
L.A. Zadeh, The concept of a lingüistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning.
Inform. Sci. 8, 199–249 (1975)
H.J. Zimmermann, Fuzzy Set Theory and Its Applications, 2nd edn. (Kluwer Academic Publishers,
Boston, 1993)
Index
A C
Advanced calculators, 81, 83 Checkland’s methodology, 24, 25
Aquifer Cognitive integration (IC), 90
entrance, 33 Cognitive perspective, 84
exits, 33 Cognitive processes, 81
functions, 33 Conceptualizations, 82
future events, 34 Consultancy, 48
hypotheses, 34 in academic research, 49
subject matters, 34 activity, 48
themes, 34 consulting process, 49
AVT problematic, 35 critical thinking, 55
customers, 48, 49
implementation of tools, 50
B ineffectiveness, 50
Benchmarking, 15 judgment, 58
Bi-level programming, 117–119 mental structure, 55
application, 127 in Mexican context, 48
average demand, 127 monopolize, 49
complexity, 118 PyME Fund, 48
micro-warehouses, 128 strategic aspects, 55
properties, 118 theoretical-methodological limitations, 49
solution, 128 Consulting practice, 62
types, 119 Consulting process, 59
Bi-level programming problems (BLPP) definition, 62
definitions, 121 diagnosis phase, 51
discrete, 122, 123 dimensions, 53
Bi-level search services model intervention procedures, 52
algorithm, 125, 126 Kurb’s consulting process, 51
problem, 124 literature, 50
solution, 125, 126 placid context, 53
Block consulting process, 52 problem’s solution, 51
Boundary definition, 55 stakeholders share interests, 53
Business to business (BtoB), 68 Corporate Resources Management
Business to consumer (BtoC), 68 (CRM), 136
Buyer usefulness matrix, 76 Critical thinking, 55

In Operation Management, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-50089-4
160 Index
Cross impact analysis, 39 I

Customer–consultant information Innovation, 65
exchange, 52 achieve, 69
Customer–consultant relationship, 51 advantages, 68
avoid, 69
challenges, 68
D classification, 66, 67
Daily average demand, 129 consumer’s behavior, 68
Data organization, 91 definitions, 66
Decision variables, 130 dimensions, 67
Decision-making, 105, 109 dynamics, 73
park location, 106 problems, 69
public spaces, 105 stages, 69
urban areas, 106 types, 68
Decision variables, 130 Innovation process, 69–71, 73, 74, 78
Delegación Cuauhtémoc, 112 elements, 72
Demand of representations (DR), 96 first stage, 71
Differential calculus, 81 nonlinear, 70
Distribution, 120, 123, 127, 128, 130–132 second stage, 71
Dynamic diagnosis, 4 technical object, 72
Dynamic environment, 106 tools, 71
Input variables, 6
Interactive planning process, 18
E International financial system crisis, 18
Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Interpretative element, 83
equation, 137–139 Inventory and fuzzy demand, 139, 154
analysis of results, 146
average cost, 140
deficit, 140 K
fuzzy, 138, 139, 142, 143, 145 Kantian system, 57
parameters, 137 Kurb’s consulting process, 51
solution, 141 Kurtosis, 10
Economic rupture (ER), 72
L
F Learning materials, 96
Fitness landscape, 10 Leibniz system, 56
Flexible linear programming (FLP), 148 Linear programming (LP), 147
Forecast, 22 Location, 117, 119, 120, 128, 129
Forecast integration, 34, 36 Lockean system, 56
Formulation, 120
Future image, 37
Fuzzy number, 154–156 M
Material requirements planning (MRP), 138, 152
first restriction, 151
G flexible restrictions, 151
Geographic Information System (GIS), 108 inventories, 137
Goal or multi-criteria programming (GP), 108 low use, 136
Guiding prediction, 22 model formulation, 151
objective function, 151
second restriction, 151
H solution procedure, 138
Heavy trends, 31 third restriction, 152
Hegelian system, 57 use, 138
Index 161
Mathematical knowledge, 81 fitness landscape, 9

bidimensional connections, 92, 93 inertial attractor, 8
concepts, 82, 92 input variables, 6
conceptual methodology, 11, 12
expectations, 90 objectives, 13
images, 82 obstacles, 10
organization, 89 order vs. chaos, 8
and procedural knowledge, 89 output/response variables, 7
conceptualization, 85 phases, 14
digraphs, 81, 92 potential of, 9
electronic media, 86 state variables, 6
human mind, 84 structure, 12, 13
internal representations, 85 Organizations
mental images, 85 adaptive, 9
mental operations, 84 complex system, 4
mental representations, 90 interaction process, 5
mental structures, 84 internal dynamics, 5, 6
operations, 84 interrelated subsystems, 4
structural models, 81 methodological outline, 5
tridimensional connections, 93 open system, 5
visualization, 82 Output/response variables, 7
visual processing, 86
Mathematic modeling methodology, 106, 109
Mental processes, 82 P
Mental structure, 58, 59 Pie chart, 75
Micro-warehouses, trip time, 130 Planning, 18, 34
Ministry of Economy, 48 Predictions integration, 36, 38
Modeling process Problem structuration process, 108
circumstance, 106 Programming methods, 111
structured problem, 106
Model of propositional analysis (MAP), 87
Morfín’s consulting process, 51 R
MRP fuzzy, 138, 148–150 Radical innovation, 66
Multi-criteria approach, 109 Ruptures, 70–74, 76–78
Multi-criteria model, 111
Multi-criteria optimization model, 112
Multi-criteria programming, 117 S
Multi-objective model, 110 Scenarios
classification, 19
definition, 19, 20
N environment future studies, 18
Networks, 117, 119 interactive planning, 18
planning, 19
states, 20
O systemic construction, 21
Ochoa-Rosso method, 52 writing, 37, 39–42
Optimization models, 107 Shipping expenses, 129
Organizational dynamics, 6 Singerian system, 57
attractors, 8 State Health Department of the State of
bifurcations, 8 Mexico (ISEM), 127
chaos, 8 State variables, 6
chaotic process, 7 Structuration, 107
diagnostic, 11 park locations, 108
feasible states, 7 process, 107
162 Index
Systemic approach, 82 future study, 22

Systemic intervention, 55, 60 phases, 23
in actions, 54 procedure, 28
characteristics, 54 actors/events, 30
identification, 54 forecast integration, 28, 29
methodology, 54 future image construction, 29
theoretical and methodological invariants, 30
elements, 47 narrations, 29, 30
predictions integration, 29
system analysis, 27
T variables, 30
Teaching guide, 97, 98 process, 23
Teaching materials, 83 stages, 23
Technical elements, 74 Triangular fuzzy number (TFN), 141
Technical object value chart, 77
Technological analysis, 73
Technological rupture (TR), 72 U
Theoretical-methodological elements, 55 Urban planning
Toluca Valley Aquifer (AVT) and renovation, 105
scenario, 31 Usage rupture (UR), 72
Trapezoidal form (TrFN), 148
Trapezoidal fuzzy number (TrFN), 141
Trend scenarios, 21 V
carriers, 31 Visual information, 86
aquifer area, 33 Visualizing a diagram, 88
procedure to develop, 32 Visual method, 88
quantitative aspects, 31 Visual processing, 86
system analysis, 33 Visual reasoning, 81, 83, 87, 88
conceptual model, 26 conceptual organization, 87
definition, 25 individual segments, 86
development, 24 interpretative element, 83
elaboration process, 26, 27 qualitative studies, 82
forecast, 23 validation, 84
functions, 26 visual images, 87

Problem Solving in Operation Management

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Problem Solving in Operation Management

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Patricia Esperanza Balderas-Cañas

Gabriel de las Nieves Sánchez-Guerrero Editors

ISBN 978-3-030-50088-7 ISBN 978-3-030-50089-4 (eBook)

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021

Currently, Systems Thinking is a holistic, transdisciplinary, dynamic, and construc-

Mexico City, Mexico Manuel Ordorica Mellado

This book is about problem solving in management of systems engineering cases.

3.3 Consulting Process���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 50

6.2 Modeling Process for Park Locations ���������������������������������������������� 106

Ricardo Aceves-García studied Chemical Engineering at the Autonomous

Zaida E. Alarcón-Bernal obtained a doctoral degree in Engineering in the area of

Patricia Esperanza Balderas-Cañas holds a PhD (Hons.) in Pedagogy, a master’s

Felipe de Jesús Lara-Rosano holds a Doctoral degree in Systems Engineering

Mayra Elizondo-Cortés has a Doctoral and Master’s degrees in Operations

Oscar Everardo Flores-Choperena has a master’s degree in Engineering from

Adela Jiménez-Montero has a degree in Applied Mathematics and Computation

Cozumel A. Monroy-León obtained her PhD in Industrial Engineering from the

Manuel Ordorica-Mellado is an actuary, demographer specialized in mathemati-

Gabriel de las Nieves Sánchez-Guerrero holds a Doctoral degree (Hons.) in

Benito Sánchez-Lara holds a Doctoral and master’s degrees in the Engineering

Ricardo Aceves-García Department of Systems, Faculty of Engineering, National

This book is about problem-solving in management of systems engineering cases.

Felipe de Jesús Lara-Rosano

1.1 The Dynamic Diagnostic of a Complex Organization

F. de Jesús Lara-Rosano (*)

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 3

This research proposes principles for the dynamic diagnosis of an organization

1.2 Organizations as a Complex System

Knowledge is building, by the knowing subject, a conceptual representation of the

Fig. 1.1 Methodological Computational

Relevant Theoretical Paradigms

Paradigm of Complex Systems

Organizational Reality to Discover

Organization is an adaptive complex system of social nature, comprised of

agendas, as it happens in an organization, it is not enough to apply a casual approach,

1.3 Analysis of Complex Organization

1.3.1 Analysis of Complex Organization Dynamics

The analysis of organizational dynamics aims to examine the temporary evolution

to modify the organization dynamics. The manipulation of these parameters

The ruggedness of the fitness landscape depends on the number of members of a

1.4 Diagnostic of Complex Organizational Dynamics

The diagnostic of complex organizational dynamics is a research-action process to

• General policies of the organization and organizational culture, rules of the

References and Bibliography

G. Castañeda, Sociomática: El estudio de los sistemas adaptables complejos en el entorno socio-

Gabriel de las Nieves Sánchez-Guerrero

History of those who have dedicated to announce future situations, or to look or

G. de las N. Sánchez-Guerrero (*)

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 17

2.1.1 Scenarios in Interactive Planning

Planning assumed as the anticipated rational decision-making (Ackoff 1970, p. 2) is

Fig. 2.1 Four states in scenario description (Source: Sánchez-Guerrero 2016)

2.1.2 Trend Scenarios

Where s: structure, f: functions, p: processes, c: context, a: actors, t: time, i: possi-

Then, conceptual model is elaborated, where previous aspects are integrated

2.2 Proposed Procedure

2.2.1 System Analysis and Current Situation Explanation

Monitor and control

Problematic: needs, demands,

2.2.2 Forecasts Integration

2.2.3 Predictions Integration

2.2.4 Construction of Future Image

2.2.5  onnection Between Present and Future:

Mexico City, Mexico Manuel Ordorica Mellado

3.3 Consulting Process�� 50

6.2 Modeling Process for Park Locations �� 106

1.1 The Dynamic Diagnostic of a Complex Organization

1.2 Organizations as a Complex System

1.3 Analysis of Complex Organization

1.3.1 Analysis of Complex Organization Dynamics

1.4 Diagnostic of Complex Organizational Dynamics

2.1.1 Scenarios in Interactive Planning

2.1.2 Trend Scenarios

2.2 Proposed Procedure

2.2.1 System Analysis and Current Situation Explanation

2.2.2 Forecasts Integration

2.2.3 Predictions Integration

2.2.4 Construction of Future Image

2.2.5 onnection Between Present and Future:

System Analysis and Current Situation Explanation

Construction of Future Image

3.2 Consultancy Problems

3.3 Consulting Process

3.3.1 Kubr’s Consulting Process

3.3.2 Morfín’s Consulting Process

3.3.3 Block’s Consulting Process

3.3.4 Systems Method of Ochoa-Rosso

3.3.5 Summarizing the Consulting Processes

3.4 Systemic Intervention

3.4.1 Consultancy as a Systemic Intervention

3.4.2 Critical Thinking in Consultancy

3.4.3 Systemic Intervention Conditions in Consulting Practice

4.1 The Context of Innovation

4.2 Problem to Be Addressed

4.3 Innovative Process

5.1 Representation of Mathematical Knowledge

5.2 Visual Reasoning

5.3 epresentation Systems of Mathematical Knowledge