Who Believes in Roswell?

Who Believes in
Roswell?
Discovering the Profile of the
Roswell Believer
Frank Borzellieri
Western Academic Press

Copyright © 2011 Western Academic Press
All rights reserved, including the right to reproduce this book or parts thereof.
First Printing

New York, New York
www.culturalstudiespress.com
Additional copies of this book may be ordered directly from the publisher.
Library of Congress Control Number: 2011909509
Borzellieri, Frank.
Who believes in roswell?: discovering the profile of the roswell
believer/ Frank Borzellieri, George Noory.
New York, NY : Cultural Studies Press, 2011.
p. cm.
ISBN 978-0-9815407-2-6
Cover photograph from "Forbidden Planet" is a public domain photo.
Manufactured in the United States of America.

Dedicated to
Tama DeBoer
Contents
Foreword 1
Preface 2
1. Introduction 5
2. How the Survey for this Thesis

was Conducted 10
3. How this Thesis is Written 13
4. The Raw Results (Without Analysis

Pertaining to Belief in Roswell) 15
a. What do People Know

About Roswell? 15
b. Extraterrestrials, Religious
Commitment and Education 17
c. Conspiracy Theories and
Alien Contact 18
d. Religious Beliefs, Geography,
Politics, Age and Gender 20
e. Cover-Ups, Popular Culture
and the Paranormal 22
5. Analysis of Answers
Cross-Referenced with
Belief in Roswell 25
a. Roswell-Related Questions 28
b. Personal Demographics 44
c. Geographic Demographics 68
d. Personal Belief System 75
e. Outer Space and Extraterrestrials 95
f. Popular Culture 109
g. Conspiracy Theories 122
6. Conclusion 130
References 140
Appendix A 141
Appendix B 143
About the Author 159

Who Believes in
Roswell?
Discovering the Profile of the

Roswell Believer
Foreword 1
Foreword
By George Noory
Roswell is a topic that has fascinated people for many years.
It is a subject which certainly fascinates the listeners to my radio
show, Coast to Coast AM. Did space aliens really crash in the desert
in Roswell , New Mexico in the summer of 1947, followed by an
elaborate government coverup? Or was the entire incident just the
malfunction of a weather balloon, as the government said at the
time? While we may never know for sure exactly what happened so
many decades ago, there is one thing I know for certain: the passions
on both sides of this issue are very high.
In fact, the Roswell incident often ranks right up there with the
Kennedy assassination regarding passion. Those who believe space
aliens crashed at Roswell are as committed to their point of view as
skeptics who do not believe. On my radio show, I once sponsored a
debate on the truth of the Roswell incident between the ufologist
Stanton Friedman and the skeptic Michael Shermer. Listener
reaction was predictably passionate as both men made their cases
with great skill and intensity.
There have been many books written about the Roswell
incident, as well as hundreds of magazine and newspaper articles.
But the book you hold in your hands is amazingly different. For all that
has been written about Roswell, Frank Borzellieri has discovered
something that has never been thoroughly researched before: the
profile of both the Roswell believer and the Roswell skeptic.
I first met Frank Borzellieri when he did Coast to Coast AM
upon the release of his book, “The Physics of Dark Shadows.” Now,
Frank has made a wonderful addition to the literature on the most
important UFO incident in history. I have no doubt that everyone
interested in the Roswell incident – no matter what side you are one
– will find this book as interesting and enjoyable as I did.
2 Who Believes in Roswell?
Preface
I was sitting in class, a graduate student at Fordham University
in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. The degree I was
pursuing was a Masters in Public Communications and my class was
a requirement called Media Research Methods. The assignment we
had with us was a one-paragraph idea for a proposal for a thesis. The
thesis is a requirement in order to get the Masters Degree.
My professor was Paul Levinson, one of the most unorthodox
professors I’ve ever had – and also one of the best. He sometimes
sings in class, frequently engages in very unsuccessful class com-
edy, and his politics are often all wrong. We enjoyed debating each
other while the rest of the class looked on, amazed. But Levinson is
also a successful author (including novels, which I have not yet
attempted) and is a frequent guest on radio and television news
programs. A true Fordham media guy.
On this particular day, Levinson was calling on students to read
their paragraphs out loud. What particular ideas did we come up with
for a prospective thesis? I read my paragraph to the class, something
about racial statistics in crime rates. Levinson walked over to my
desk, took the paper from my hand, and ripped it up, throwing it in the
garbage. “One of the most boring things I’ve ever heard,” he said.
Now Levinson is lucky that I share his sense of humor. I
responded quickly, “OK, I’ll research the profile of people who
believe aliens landed at Roswell.”
“I love it! Go ahead and do it,” he said.
A few months later, Levinson was my official mentor for my
Masters thesis, and the title of my work was “Who Believes in
Roswell?” What people have to understand is that I was no different
from any other student. Although I was already a published author,
my only objective with this thesis business was doing what was
required to graduate and get my degree. There was no thought of a
book.
Levinson had told me that the minimum number of responses
to any survey question was 30, in order to be considered valid
Preface 3
research. Although I had comprised a questionnaire, I had no real

way of getting responses other than to email it to my friends and beg
them to fill it out. After a month, I had a handful of responses.
It was then suggested to me to place an ad on craigslist, which
I describe in detail later in this book. I started getting responses like
crazy. When I had my next student-mentor meeting with Levinson
to discuss my progress, he was stunned when I told him that I had
120 responses. He told me to continue placing the ad. The more
responses I had, the more impressive and valid the research, he said.
It was at that meeting that Levinson said if the responses kept
coming in at that rate, a book would be a serious consideration. I
placed the ad for three months in 39 different locations. Final tally –
1,066 responses.
At Fordham, a Masters candidate has to defend his thesis in
front of a group of three, the mentor and two other readers. Virtually
all of the time, the readers require that the author make certain
changes. My thesis was accepted exactly as I wrote it. Levinson told
me that it was maybe the third time in his experience that a thesis was
accepted without requiring any changes. He also said it was one of
the most exciting theses he had come across, and the possibilities
were numerous, including, of course, a book.
While each of us had ideas as to how to go about getting a
publisher for a book proposal of this type, Levinson interviewed me
for his podcast and I submitted a proposal for an article based on the
thesis for Skeptic Magazine. The editor of Skeptic, Michael Shermer,
accepted the article and published it. As a Catholic School adminis-
trator, I joked with my pastor that I was being published in an atheist
magazine.
As my agent and I continued to search for a publisher, I realized
that I had one basic problem: the thesis was not written as a book;
it was written as a thesis – not my usual style and very “academic.”
I would have to do something to jazz it up, to enhance its salability and
increase the enjoyment factor for readers. It was then that I came
up with the idea to interview four experts – two prominent Roswell
believers and two prominent skeptics. I spoke with famed Roswell
author and ufologist Stanton Friedman and Roswell believer and
author Tom Carey, and two disbelievers, well-known skeptic Joe

Nickell and Skeptic magazine’s Michael Shermer. I would include
their comments in the book regarding specific findings.
I must say that it was an absolute pleasure interviewing these
four men. Not only did I enjoy putting on my journalist’s cap again
(I am an adjunct professor of journalism), but their insights made for
what I believe to be indispensable additions to this book. I am grateful
to all of them for taking the time to read the thesis and for agreeing
to audio-taped interviews. Although they frequently had harsh
words for each other, I have nothing but admiration and respect for
the integrity of their points of view.
In this entire endeavor, from the moment I began the thesis to
the date of this book’s publication, I have been completely neutral –
merely the imparter of facts and findings – a role I’m not used to,
given the ideological nature of most of my books and writings. To this
day no one knows my own views on whether or not Roswell really
happened.
I want to also thank my mentor, Paul Levinson. In addition to
being my mentor for the thesis, he was also my professor for two
classes at Fordham. He is an academic in the truest sense – someone
who fiercely defends free speech in a university in an age of
ridiculous speech codes. He has an unbelievably creative mind and
his enthusiasm for far-out notions like time travel and science fiction
rubs off on his students. Hence, this book would not have happened
without him.
I must thank the lovely Tama DeBoer, who came up with the
idea of placing my Roswell survey on craigslist and to whom this
book is dedicated. I also want to thank all those anonymous
respondents to my survey. The thesis could not have happened
without them. I’m also grateful to those who emailed me after filling
out the survey, asking me to keep them posted on my findings.
Special thanks to George Noory, who wrote the Foreword to
this book. As the host of the world-famous radio show Coast to
Coast AM, George is a great Roswell enthusiast. I have enjoyed
doing his show in the past and it is my hope that this book will add to
the enjoyment of all those who are fascinated by this most interesting
and controversial topic.
Introduction 5
Introduction
What is commonly known as the “Roswell incident” or simply
“Roswell” has captivated the imaginations of people in all possible
walks of life. Persons interested in space travel, people who
research the possible existence of intelligent aliens from outer space,
ufologists, conspiracy buffs, anti-government types, science fiction
fans, religious people, those involved in paranormal study, and the
just plain curious all have an interest in the Roswell incident. Even
people who have no particular involvement in any of the aforemen-
tioned fields still have opinions on Roswell, the possible existence of
extraterrestrial life, and whether or not extraterrestrials have ever
visited Earth.
Although everyone who has at least heard of the Roswell
incident vaguely understands it to be a purported occurrence of
aliens from space crashing on Earth, followed up by an alleged
government cover-up, it would be instructive to lay out a more
specific detailed account of the incident. Because this thesis is not
intended to be an exhaustive recap of the Roswell incident per se, nor
is it written to advocate a particular position as to whether or not the
Roswell incident actually occurred, the details imparted forthwith
are merely those which are very commonly known to anyone with
a cursory knowledge of the Roswell incident. Most of these specific
details on the incident and its aftermath, therefore, are imparted
strictly from common basic knowledge. A desire for exhaustive
information on any aspect of the Roswell incident and its aftermath
can be obtained from the thousands of books and articles written
about the case, as well as many reputable online sources.
On or around July 4, 1947, in the town of Roswell, New
Mexico, strange materials and debris were recovered in a field by
farmer William “Mack” Brazel, who notified local authorities (Carey
& Schmitt, 2009). Upon statements being made to the local press
about the recovery of the unusual materials, speculation began
circulating that the debris was “not of this world.” This publicity over
the incident prompted the Roswell Army Air Field to call a press
conference and issue a statement they believed would once and for
all end speculation about exactly what the materials were. The army
said that the debris was from a weather balloon, rather than from a
“flying saucer,” as one newspaper had called it (Saler, Ziegler, &
Moore, 1997). The press conference ended speculation for the most
part, and the incident was dormant from the public consciousness for
31 years (Randle, 2000).
The entire Roswell incident was revived in the late 1970’s
when famed ufologist Stanton T. Friedman interviewed Army Major
Jesse Marcel, who some three decades prior had, he said, been part
of a possible military cover-up after Marcel recovered and examined
the unusual material, which included metals that would not wrinkle
or burn (Pflock, 2001). He asserted to Friedman that the recovery
was not really a weather balloon and he believed the authorities may
have been covering up the discovery of alien spacecraft and even
possible bodies of extraterrestrials. He had kept all this a secret for
some 30 years. So although the Roswell incident itself occurred in
1947, the fame of Roswell can actually be traced to the Marcel-
Friedman interview in 1978 (Berliner & Friedman, 1997).
In the subsequent years since Marcel’s revelation in 1978, an
entire Roswell industry has sprouted – countless books have been
written on the case, a major motion picture has been produced, a
television series has been launched, annual Roswell conventions are
held in the city of Roswell, and endless speculation involving
different adversarial camps espousing points of view have arisen
(“Alien Believers,” 1997). Today, the very word “Roswell” is
synonymous with the notions of extraterrestrials and government
cover-ups.
The purpose of this thesis, therefore, is to determine through
the use of an exhaustive detailed research questionnaire who exactly
believes that aliens from outer space landed (or crashed) at Roswell.
This detailed survey uncovers the personal qualities and
characteristics people possess who believe that extraterrestrials of
intelligence (who had the capability to create the necessary technol-
ogy and spacecraft to travel to Earth) actually landed at Roswell,
New Mexico in 1947, and that the entire thing has been covered up
Introduction 7
by the United States government.

Indeed, what cultural or demographic qualities, as well as what
belief systems, would incline people to believe in the reality of
extraterrestrials at Roswell? Is there a definite pattern whereby the
preponderance of certain qualities and characteristics in particular
persons would compel them to believe in the existence of aliens? Or
are personal qualities and characteristics entirely irrelevant? Is there
no distinct pattern in those who believe? Just as I would think
devoutly religious Christians may be more likely to believe in the
claimed visions and appearances of the Virgin Mary than casual and
non-believers, it is the purpose of this thesis to determine if the same
kinds of assumptions apply to believers in aliens at Roswell.
Are believers in Roswell more or less religious than the
average person? Are atheists less likely to be believers in Roswell?
Is there a sliding scale from very religious to atheist that mirrors
belief in Roswell?
Is it the case that the more educated one is, the less likely one
is to believe in Roswell? Is it the case that people who are extremely
informed on the specific details of Roswell are more or less likely to
believe? Or are people simply slaves to their pre-conceived notions?
Put another way, are people open-minded enough that even if they
are inclined to believe one way or another about Roswell, are they
more or less apt to change their minds upon hearing the detailed
facts?
Are the believers more likely to be those who simply want to
believe? Do the facts and the evidence matter at all?
Are those who believe in an afterlife more likely to believe in
Roswell? Does a belief in the existence of the spirits of loved ones,
or of extrasensory perception – psychic powers and the paranormal
– contribute to a pattern that may incline someone to believe in
Roswell? Are superstitious people anywhere more prone to believe
in space aliens?
Is there a difference between those who believe in the
possibility of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe and those who
believe in Roswell, or are people who believe in one more likely to
believe in the other? Certainly there are people who believe in
intelligent life elsewhere in the universe, but who reject Roswell on

the specific merits of the case. But how common is it for one person
to hold both views at the same time?
Are people who despise government more likely to believe in
Roswell because they are more inclined to think government would
cover up something like proof of extraterrestrials, or is that personal
quality irrelevant? What about age? Are the older and wiser less
likely to believe in Roswell? Are young imaginative minds more likely
to believe?
What about race and gender? Is there any significance at all
to those characteristics? And what about geographic location? Do
political beliefs affect one’s view of Roswell?
On the religious issue, most people pick up their beliefs from
their parents. So in that sense, how much of belief in Roswell is based
on faith? It would seem that those who are insistent that intelligent
life exists in the cosmos would be more likely to believe in Roswell.
Are military people more or less likely to be distrustful of
government, and does that view carry over into any opinions they
may have on Roswell? Likewise, conspiracy theories abound about
the assassination of President Kennedy and, more recently, about
the events of September 11, 2001 (Tuckett, 2005). In both cases,
many people believe in United States government involvement. Are
believers in conspiracies more likely to believe in a government
conspiracy about a Roswell cover-up, or is each case judged on its
individual merits?
Popular culture often has a huge effect on people’s opinions.
Therefore, it is important to know whether or not fans of science
fiction are more inclined to believe in Roswell. Are regular viewers
of the television series “Roswell” believers in the alien version or is
the show merely entertainment? Is membership in a UFO organiza-
tion an indicator in belief in Roswell, or is it the opposite – that
informed people on the subject know enough to reject Roswell?
There are also many people who believe they themselves have
been contacted by aliens (Friedman, 2008). Others believe the
government has been contacted, and still others know of someone
who claims to have been contacted. Do these characteristics add to
Introduction 9
the profile of the Roswell believer?

It is definitely a worthwhile and interesting undertaking to
attempt to discover the answers to all these questions, which would
answer the big question: who is most likely to believe in Roswell,
based on the personal characteristics one possesses?
There has been one known previous survey conducted which
addressed the Roswell issue (“Poll: U.S.,” 1997). In June 1997, on
the 50th anniversary of the Roswell incident, CNN and Time
Magazine conducted a poll of 1,024 adults. Two-thirds of the
respondents stated that they believed that extraterrestrials landed in
Roswell, New Mexico in 1947. This is an astoundingly high figure.
It could be true that the CNN/Time poll itself received skewed
answers because of the craze over the 50th anniversary of Roswell.
The poll also contained answers to other questions which may very
well give an indication of how a respondent’s overall mentality
affected the answer to the Roswell question. For example, 80
percent said they believed the government was hiding information
about the existence of extraterrestrials. That is a very interesting
response because it indicates that more people believe in extrater-
restrials in general than they do specifically as it pertains to Roswell.
In the Time/CNN poll, 64 percent said they believe aliens have
contacted humans, and 37 percent believe aliens have contacted the
government. Interestingly, better than 90 percent of the same
respondents said that they themselves had never had contact with an
alien, nor did they know someone who did. So clearly, most
respondents were stating what they simply believed, not what they
had personally experienced (or thought they had experienced).
Although the Time/CNN poll did not ask any of the detailed questions
that are addressed in this thesis, the responses are interesting
nonetheless.
No poll or survey has ever been done that would answer the
questions that are answered by this thesis – determining who
believes in the alien version of Roswell. Therefore, the results and
analysis in this thesis are the first of its kind.
How the Survey for this

Thesis was Conducted
In order to obtain the profile – the characteristics, as well as the
personal beliefs and demographic information – on who exactly
believes that aliens landed at Roswell, New Mexico, a detailed
survey of 43 questions was constructed and distributed throughout
the United States. The questionnaire was distributed over a three-
month period from September through December 2009 through an
online advertisement on craigslist.org in the following locations
within the United States: Peoria; north Mississippi; Sacramento;
Tallahassee; Medford (OR); Houston; Chicago; New York City;
Roswell; Minneapolis; Las Vegas; Los Angeles; Seattle; Kansas
City; Richmond (VA); Maine; Des Moines; Bismarck; San Diego;
Milwaukee; Dallas; Denver; Montgomery (AL); Philadelphia; St.
Louis; Cleveland; Buffalo; Miami; Atlanta; Detroit; Boston; Pitts-
burgh; Washington (DC); Indianapolis; Hartford; Austin; Nashville;
San Francisco; and Raleigh (NC).
The advertisement was a link which read as follows: “FREE
- Take my Alien ‘Roswell’ survey (for my Masters thesis).”
Upon clicking on this link, the respondent was then taken to the
full text of the ad, which read as follows: “Please take my
anonymous ‘Roswell’ survey to help me with my Masters thesis at
Fordham University. The ‘Roswell incident’ was the alleged landing
of space aliens in Roswell, New Mexico. The survey is fast and fun.
Just click on this link. Thanks!” The ad concluded with the following
link:
h t t p : / / w w w . s u r v e y m o n k e y . c o m /
s.aspx?sm=ImVgnc_2fsWbFIMwE_2bDWbBKA_3d_3d
This link then took respondents to the actual questionnaire,
which was created through surveymonkey.com. There was a brief
introduction to read (see Appendix A), followed by the 43 questions.
Upon each respondent’s completion of the questionnaire, the results
were immediately added to the total and the new percentages were
tabulated. As responses came in during the three-month period, the
How the Survey was Conducted 11
percentages were continually updated. The total number of re-

sponses to the survey was 1,066.
The key question in the survey, referred to herein as “Question
Two” explicitly asks the respondent’s opinion of Roswell. The exact
wording of the question was as follows: “Do you believe in the two
major specific contentions that define the ‘Roswell incident’ – that
extraterrestrials landed in Roswell, New Mexico in 1947, and that
the government covered it up?”
Respondents had the choice of five different answers to this
question: 1. “Not at all”; 2. “Unlikely”; 3. “Possible”; 4. “Very
likely”; 5. “Certain of it.”
The answers to Question Two were then cross-referenced
against all of the other 42 questions (or, in the language of
surveymonkey.com, “crosstabbed”). The heart of this thesis is the
section in which the actual crosstabbing of each question with
Question Two is analyzed – thereby determining the profile of people
who believe that aliens landed at Roswell.
The 1,066 responses to this survey are an impressive total
because they provide an extremely high degree of validity and
reliability to the questions asked and the analysis provided. While no
survey or poll can provide a perfect reflection of true public
sentiment, this survey is diverse enough to inspire very high confi-
dence in its findings.
The responses provide a wide cross-section of the American
public. The responses were solicited equitably through the advertise-
ments on craigslist.org, so no particular group was favored. The only
group which was specifically solicited was members of UFO
organizations (through emails to several UFO organizations), so the
4.1 percent of respondents who belong to such organizations and
answered the questionnaire is undoubtedly higher than the percent-
age of UFO organization members in the public at large. A
discernible number of UFO organization members was needed in
order to measure their responses in a statistically valid way.
In addition, although no particular effort was made to solicit
responses from any demographic group, there may be something
inherently skewed about soliciting from craigslist.org. For example,
city residents may be more likely to go on craigslist.org than

suburbanites or small town residents because the website caters
somewhat to cities. So the percentage of city dwellers may be higher
than average. Respondents who identify themselves as liberals may
be higher than the American citizenry in general because liberals
tend to live in cities at a higher rate than non-liberals, and city
dwellers probably respond to craigslist.org at a higher rate. Also, the
elderly are less likely to use computers than the young, so the results
may understate the elderly. Nevertheless, outside those small items,
the respondents are a very diverse group. The responses are so
widely dispersed in virtually every category, that the results certainly
reflect an accurate and valid picture of who believes what about
Roswell. Because the sampling is so diversified geographically, the
sampling is extremely reliable. The respondents themselves took
care of diversifying everything else.
How this Thesis is Written 13
How this Thesis is Written

This thesis is divided into sections and subsections. After the
introduction and the sections on how the survey was conducted and
how this thesis is written, there follows two sections on the survey
results themselves. The first section provides what is herein referred
to as the “raw results” of the survey, meaning the actual percentages
of the optional answers to the survey questions – without analysis
cross-referenced to the question of belief in Roswell.
The next section is the heart of this thesis, the section where
each question is crosstabbed with Question Two on Roswell. This
is where it is revealed what percentage, for example, of those who
believe in an afterlife also believe in Roswell, or which religious
group is most or least likely to believe or disbelieve Roswell, and so
on. This section is further divided into subsections separated by
categories, such as geographic area, personal beliefs, etc.
Furthermore, in the analysis section, the results are arrived
at by taking respondents’ answers to Question Two and cross-
referencing the answers with the other questions. Therefore, it is
necessary to explain how Question Two is constructed and how the
answers are treated herein. In answering Question Two, respon-
dents were purposely given five choices – two indicating a belief that
space aliens landed at Roswell, two indicating disbelief, and one
indicating the belief that space aliens landing is merely “possible” but
cannot be certain either way. The main purpose of the choice of
“possible” is to filter out those who are unsure. Moreover, it was
crucial in formulating the responses that there be five total response
choices and not only three. Two of the responses indicating belief in
Roswell allow those who have some doubt, but not much, to still
register belief in Roswell. The two responses are “Certain of it” and
“Very likely.” If not for the option of responding “Very likely” there
was the risk that unless a person was absolutely sure, the person
would pick the “possible” choice. That would have been detrimental
to the study. The choice of “Very likely” allows some small doubt
while clearly placing the person in the “believer” category. The same
goes for the disbelievers. They also have two choices, “Not at all”
and “Unlikely.” And again, the “Unlikely” choice allows room for
some doubt while avoiding the “possible” category and keeping the
respondent clearly in the disbelieving category.
Throughout the pages of this thesis, there is frequent use of the
phrases “believe Roswell” and “disbelieve Roswell.” For the pur-
poses of this thesis, whenever the phrase “believe Roswell” is used,
it means believing in the alien version of Roswell – that there were
extraterrestrials there, not that there was merely an incident there
(which of course is factual). Likewise, to “disbelieve Roswell”
means to not believe that aliens landed there. It is equally important
to point out that when the phrase “believe in Roswell” is used, it
means that respondents have chosen either “Very likely” or “Certain
of it” to Question Two. For the most part, those two answers are
combined when referring to respondents’ belief in Roswell. Simi-
larly, when the phrase “disbelieve Roswell” is used, it means
respondents have chosen either “Not at all” or “Unlikely” to
Question Two.
In almost all cases when the word “Roswell” is used, it means
the alien version of Roswell, not merely the city or the incident.
Sometimes the “possible” category is cited in this thesis
(meaning those who answered “possible” to Question Two) and the
percentages are given for those who chose that response, but for the
most part, the two main choices (believing or disbelieving in Roswell)
identified through the four possible choices, are the main focus of this
report.
The Raw Results 15
The Raw Results

(Without Analysis Pertaining to
Belief in Roswell)
The total raw results to the survey, without crosstabbing the

questions with respondents’ belief or disbelief in Roswell, are
interesting. The responses provide the views of a wide cross-section
of the American public. (To view the raw results, see Appendix B).
What Do People Know About Roswell?
Only 6.5 percent of all respondents stated that they knew

“nothing at all” about the Roswell incident. The percentage of people
who truly know nothing about Roswell may actually be higher
because it may be that anyone who clicks on the ad in the first place
would at least know something about Roswell in order to be
motivated to take the survey. On the other hand, if there is a skew
at all, it may not be that high because the ad asks the respondent to
help out with a Masters thesis, and also indicates that taking the
survey is free, and that it concerns an alleged alien landing. Those
words alone may have sparked some interest in people to take the
survey. Whichever way this is skewed, it clearly does not shift the
amount in any largely discernible way.
The second lowest response to the question of “how much do
you know” about Roswell was the other extreme – 9.3 percent
stated that they know “very much.” The highest response was from
those who know “only the very basics” (33 percent), followed
closely by 30.5 percent who said they know a “moderate amount.”
20.8 percent said they know “more than average.” So fully 30.1
percent – almost one-third of all respondents – stated that they knew
either “very much” or “more than average.” 63.5 percent knew
either “the basics” or a “moderate amount.” The survey results,
therefore, indicate a very healthy result, a total of 93.6 percent,
stating they know something of Roswell. The more interesting
finding, of course, will be distinguishing the extent a person believes

that Roswell actually happened with that person’s level of knowl-
edge about the case.
Question Two in the survey is the key question around which
all the other questions revolve. It states, “Do you believe in the two
major specific contentions that define the ‘Roswell incident’ – that
extraterrestrials landed in Roswell, New Mexico in 1947, and that
the government covered it up?” (Those who believe in only one of
the contentions – that the government was covering up, but not about
aliens – is handled in a different survey question). Without yet
analyzing the characteristics of the person who believes in the alien
version of Roswell, the raw results are as follows: (once again, the
extreme answers are the ones with the lowest percentages, but it is
the combination of responses that may prove most enlightening) 10.5
percent answered “not at all,” while 8.1 percent said they were
“certain of it” that Roswell happened. 17.1 percent said the Roswell
incident was “unlikely”; 24.6 percent said it was “very likely”; and
the highest response, 39.8 percent, said it was “possible.” Another
way to look at these responses is to consider that fully 72.5 percent
of all respondents state that the alien version of Roswell is possible,
very likely or certain. That is an astounding figure by itself.
Conversely, only 27.6 percent believe the alien version certainly did
not happen or is unlikely. But excluding the category of “possible,”
32.7 percent believe in Roswell, while 27.6 percent disbelieve
Roswell.
57.5 percent of those surveyed said that their opinions about
Roswell were based on the specific facts of the case as they know
them, while 42.5 percent said their opinions were based on their pre-
conceived notions. Presumably, therefore, a healthy 42.5 percent
were admitting that their belief in Roswell was based on what they
are inclined to believe, regardless of the facts. It must be pointed out
that this manner of thought applies to both those who believe or
disbelieve in Roswell.
The Raw Results 17
Extraterrestrials, Religious Commitment and

Education
On the more general question as to whether or not respondents

believe in the possibility of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe,
by far the most common answer (39.6 percent) was “very likely.”
A full 28.4 percent are “certain of it.” Again, this is an astounding
result as a total of 68 percent believe either very likely or are certain
of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe. Add in the 24.6 percent
who think it “possible” and the total jumps to 92.6 percent who
believe or think it possible that there is intelligent life out there. Only
5.6 percent answered “unlikely” to this question, while only 1.8
percent answered “not at all.” These numbers provide a good
background for analysis in comparing those who believe in intelligent
life in general with those who specifically believe in Roswell.
The numbers come down a bit when respondents are asked
whether or not they believe those extraterrestrials have ever visited
Earth, so clearly there is a division between those who believe in
intelligent life elsewhere in the universe, and those who believe Earth
has actually been visited. 33.3 percent believe it is “possible” that
extraterrestrials have visited Earth, followed by 27.5 who think it is
“very likely.” 16.8 percent say it is unlikely, while 14.4 percent say
they are certain of it. The lowest response, 8 percent, answered “not
at all” to this question. So once again, the trend with this survey
reveals that people are very much inclined to believe that “we are not
alone.” Fully 75.2 percent believe it is very likely, certain, or possible
that Earth has been visited by aliens. Only 24.8 percent believe that
it is unlikely or not at all possible.
Only 7.5 percent of respondents have watched and are very
familiar with the television series “Roswell,” followed by 11.6
percent who said they were “somewhat” familiar with it. The highest
percentage (50.1) answered that they had heard of it but never
watched it. 30.8 percent never heard of it. So a total of 80.9 percent
never watched the show.
The religious question is very interesting also. America is a
religious country, although the results of this questionnaire indicate
a difference between self-described religious persons and those

who actually identify with a particular religion or attend services. To
the question, “How religious are you?” respondents most commonly
answered that they were “believer, but not very religious” (31
percent). Another 24.6 percent said they were somewhat religious,
followed by 14.1 percent who said they were very religious. 19.4
percent said they were agnostic and 10.9 percent said atheist. So a
total of 69.7 percent of respondents were (at minimum) believers.
It will also be interesting to see any correlation between
education level and belief in Roswell. The most common response
was people with “some college” (36.8 percent), followed closely by
those with Bachelors degrees (33 percent). Masters degree recipi-
ents made up 16.1 percent of respondents, and PhD’s made up 3.2
percent. High school graduates comprised 8.4 percent. Students
currently in high school were only 1.3 percent, and high school
dropouts were 1.2 percent.
49.6 percent identified themselves as “moderately” fans of
science fiction. 23.3 percent said they were “very much” fans, and
22.9 percent said “not at all.” 4.2 percent identified themselves as
“devout” fans of science fiction. So the question will be: is there any
connection between one’s interest in science fiction and one’s belief
in Roswell?
Almost one-third (32.3 percent) said they have a background
in science, which jumps out as being especially high. Perhaps the
question was asked too broadly (“Do you have a background in
science?”) Indeed, this may cover everything from nuclear physi-
cists to high school science teachers.
12 percent of respondents have been in the military, while 88
percent have not.
Conspiracy Theories and Alien Contact
In an attempt to gauge any connection between those who

believe in other conspiracy theories, the highest total of responders
(33.1 percent) answered “probably” to the question of whether
President Kennedy’s assassination was part of a conspiracy.
The Raw Results 19
Another 15.1 percent answered “almost certainly.” Therefore,

almost half (48.2 percent) believe in the conspiracy theory. Only 9
percent said “definitely not,” and 24 percent said “very unlikely,”
making the total of non-believers 31 percent. The final 19.7 percent
said they were unsure.
Fewer people believe in the conspiracy that the United States
government knew in advance about September 11th, but the num-
bers are still very high. 30.3 percent said that it was “likely” and 10.9
percent said “very certain,” making the total 41.2 percent who
believe in a conspiracy about September 11th. But the highest total
of responders was those who answered “unlikely” (38 percent).
20.8 percent said “definitely not,” making the total of non-believers
58.8 percent, almost double the number of non-believers in the
Kennedy assassination conspiracy.
In keeping with the American religious tradition, 58.3 percent
of respondents believe in an afterlife; only 14.7 percent do not. The
remainder (26.9 percent) is unsure.
Likewise, 57.8 percent believe in a “personal God,” and 21.8
percent do not. 20.4 percent are unsure.
The question was asked, “Are you open to the possibility that
the ‘Roswell incident’ could be true – if you would allow yourself to
listen to a well-informed expert on the case?”, which was another
way of asking an earlier question, with the additional choice option
of “maybe” and with the addition of knowing the answer to whether
or not they believe in Roswell. 68 percent answered yes, thereby
stating that they would have an open mind. 27.3 percent did answer
“maybe.” Only 4.7 percent said, “No, nothing could convince me.”
Another astonishing result is that 60.1 percent believe that
aliens have contacted humans. 39.9 percent do not believe it.
Conversely, almost identical percentages gave the opposite
answer when asked if they believed aliens had ever contacted the
United States government. 37.3 percent said aliens had contacted
the government, yet 62.7 percent answered no to that question.
Nevertheless, it is still an astonishingly high figure that more than
one-third of respondents believe aliens have contacted the United
States government.
Only 5.5 percent of respondents say that they themselves have

been personally contacted by aliens, with the balance (94.5 percent)
stating no.
But a higher figure (14.2 percent) stated that they knew
someone personally who claimed to have been contacted by aliens.
So clearly, the trend seems to be the more impersonal and distant the
contact, the more likely people are to believe it. According to the
survey results, belief in alien contact is highest when asked if aliens
have contacted humans in general (60.1 percent), followed by the
United States government (37.3 percent), followed by the 14.2
percent (people they know – although it should be pointed out that
that percentage refers to knowing people who claim to have been
contacted, not that the respondents necessarily believe them),
followed by the respondents having been contacted themselves (5.5
percent).
Religious Beliefs, Geography, Politics, Age and

Gender
Without regard to level of commitment, the most common

religion among respondents was a tie between Protestants and
Catholics (21 percent each). These were followed by atheist/
agnostic (20.4 percent); then “spiritual, but no specific religion” (19.3
percent); and other (13.9). Jewish respondents comprised 3.4
percent, with Moslems (0.5 percent) and Hindus (0.5 percent)
barely registering. These results mirror fairly closely the actual
percentages of United States citizens, demonstrating that the survey
respondents are accurately diversified.
Interestingly, while the survey results indicate that respondents
are basically religious, that fact does not translate into attendance at
religious services. The most common answer to the question of
attending religious services was “never or almost never” at 43.7
percent. So clearly there is a large cross-section of people who are
religious but do not attend services. Indeed, the second most
common answer was “seldom” (23.4 percent), followed by “some-
times” at 19 percent. Those who answered “regularly” were at the
The Raw Results 21
lowest percentage (13.9 percent).

This survey is geared toward Americans, so it is no surprise
that 94.3 percent of respondents were born in the United States.
Only 5.7 percent said they were not.
An even greater percentage was raised in the United States
(96.4 percent), even if they were not born here. Survey respondents
were raised in the following sections of the country: Midwest (31.2);
Northeast (29.7); South (14.3); West coast (8.7); Southwest (5.1);
Northwest (5); North central (2.5). While these percentages may
not be a perfect reflection of the actual population disbursement,
they certainly provide a healthy geographic diversity.
Of respondents not born in the United States, the highest total
was Europe (2.2 percent), followed by South America, Asia and
Mexico at 0.8 percent each; 0.7 percent were born in Canada; 0.3
percent were born in Australia; none were born in Africa. So clearly,
foreign input into the survey was negligible.
The race of respondents was similarly not an exact reflection
of American racial statistics, once again probably due to those who
tend to use computers, the internet, and craigslist.org. But the
responses again reflected a good diversity of races. Whites com-
prised 86.7 percent of respondents. Those of mixed race were 5.3
percent, while non-white Hispanics were 4 percent. Blacks were 2.3
percent and Asians 1.8 percent.
Respondents’ political views are probably somewhat more
liberal than average. While many Americans identify themselves as
conservative, the most common answer on this survey was “liberal.”
Once again, this disparity may be attributable to the fact that more
city dwellers answered the survey than suburbanites, and city people
tend to be more liberal than small town America or suburb dwellers.
30.2 percent identified themselves as “liberal,” with 12.4 percent
saying “very liberal.” 16.3 percent answered “conservative,” with
4.8 percent stating “very conservative.” “Moderate” was answered
by 26.9 percent, and “apolitical” was given by 9.3 percent. So a total
of 42.6 percent stated they were liberal or very liberal. A total of 21.1
percent were conservative or very conservative.
Similarly, 66.7 percent said they “most closely identified”
themselves as Democrats, while 33.3 percent identified as Repub-

licans. An unusually high number of respondents skipped this
question altogether (6.7 percent), undoubtedly due to the absence of
an intermediate choice such as “independent” or “neither.” This
absence was done on purpose because the question was worded
“most closely identify yourself,” meaning that even if someone were
an independent or moderate political thinker, a person usually leans
one way (albeit slightly) or another. So the desired answers were
obtained.
The most common age group to respond to the survey was 30-
49 at 38.5 percent, followed closely by 18-29 at 33.6 percent and 50-
65 at 23.8 percent. Those over 65 responded at a 3.2 percent rate
and ages 14-17 the fewest at one percent.
Women responded to the survey at an almost 6 to 4 ratio (58.6
to 41.4 percent), somewhat higher than the general population and
probably a reflection more of women’s likelihood to use craigslist.org
rather than more of an interest in anything related to Roswell.
Cover-Ups, Popular Culture, and the Paranormal
As could probably be predicted, fully 80 percent of respondents

believe that the government was engaged in a cover-up at Roswell,
even if it wasn’t about aliens. Only 11.8 percent believe that the
government version was truthful. 8.2 percent believe that the
question didn’t apply because they believe aliens were there. So that
8.2 percent who believe the government was lying about aliens
brings the total to 88.2 percent of people who believed that the
government was lying about something at Roswell.
85.6 percent did not know what Project Mogul is (the secret
government defense operation that was being conducted near
Roswell). That figure would undoubtedly be higher if UFO organi-
zation members had not been specifically solicited for this survey.
The total of 14.4 percent did know what Project Mogul is.
Regarding general interest in the topic of UFO’s and extrater-
restrials, 54.6 said they were “somewhat interested,” while 27.8
percent said they were “very interested.” 17.6 percent stated they
The Raw Results 23
were not interested in these topics.

Better than two-thirds (68.1 percent) of respondents said that
popular culture, such as movies and science fiction, had no effect on
their view of the Roswell incident. The remaining 31.9 percent said
that popular culture did get them “curious and interested” in Roswell
and affected their opinion.
4.1 percent of respondents were members of UFO organiza-
tions. While this figure appears small, UFO members were specifi-
cally solicited for this survey, so the true number in the United States
of those belonging to a UFO organization is undoubtedly smaller than
the one in 25 persons who took this survey.
The solicitation to take this survey was distributed by adver-
tisement to every geographic location within the United States.
Notwithstanding the probably higher response of those living in
cities, the breakdown of respondents is diverse, with 41.5 percent
living in cities, 37.2 percent in suburbs, and 21.3 percent in small
towns.
The majority of respondents (52.3 percent) answered “not at
all” to the question of whether or not they were superstitious.
However, this was followed closely (44.1 percent) by those who
were “somewhat” superstitious. 3.6 percent said they were “very
much” superstitious, making the overall pattern a 52-48 total, slightly
favoring those who are not superstitious to any degree.
Medical doctors (0.9 percent) and lawyers (1.3 percent)
comprised such a small percentage of respondents that no substan-
tial interpretation of their views can be extracted from the results.
2.1 percent of respondents were members of the clergy.
7 percent of respondents were connected with a fan club of a
popular television program. Of those, 2.8 percent were involved with
a fan club of a science fiction show, while the remainder (4.2
percent) was involved with a non-science fiction show’s fan club.
With regard to belief in psychic powers, 22.4 percent said they
believed “very much.” The highest response (40.1 percent) said they
believed in psychic powers “in a small number of people.” This
brings the total of believers to 62.5 percent. Another 22.3 percent
said they were unsure. 15.2 percent did not believe in psychic
powers at all.
Likewise, 51.3 percent believed in the existence of spirits of
deceased loved ones. 19.7 percent did not and 29 percent were
unsure.
Similarly, 56.3 percent believed in the paranormal (telepathy,
mediumship, precognition, clairvoyance), while only 16.9 percent did
not. The remaining 26.7 percent were unsure.
Analysis of Answers 25
Analysis of Answers
Cross-Referenced with
Belief in Roswell
This section represents the heart of this report. All responses
to the survey questions are heretofore cross-referenced with the
question on belief in Roswell. The findings, therefore, are first
presented as individual factual “items”, followed by the actual
percentages involved and speculation as to why a certain finding
exists. This section is also separated by sub-sections in which
questions are grouped by specific categories.
This is also the section in which the four experts offer their
commentary on specific findings. Since I will forthwith be referring
to them simply by name, I will state a brief biography for each man
up front, listing not only their impressive credentials, but explaining
what qualifies them to comment specifically on the Roswell incident.
Michael Shermer is a Roswell skeptic and disbeliever. He is
the Founding Publisher of Skeptic magazine and editor of Skeptic.com,
a monthly columnist for Scientific American, and an Adjunct
Professor at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman Univer-
sity. Dr. Shermer’s latest book is “The Believing Brain: From Ghosts
and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies — How We Construct Beliefs
and Reinforce Them as Truths.” He also wrote “Why Darwin
Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design”, and he
is the author of “The Science of Good and Evil and of Why People
Believe Weird Things.” Dr. Shermer received his Ph.D in the history
of science from Claremont Graduate University (1991). He was a
college professor for 20 years, and since his creation of Skeptic
magazine has appeared on such shows as The Colbert Report, 20/
20, Dateline, Charlie Rose, and Larry King Live. Dr. Shermer was
the co-host and co-producer of the 13-hour Family Channel televi-
sion series, Exploring the Unknown.
Stanton T. Friedman is a Roswell believer and the author of
several books about the case. He is the original civilian investigator

of the Roswell incident and is the author of “Crash at Corona: The
U.S. Military Retrieval and Cover-up of a UFO” and “Flying
Saucers and Science: A Scientist Investigates the Mysteries of
UFOs: Interstellar Travel, Crashes, and Government Cover-ups.”
Stanton Friedman received his Bachelors and Masters degrees in
physics from the University of Chicago in 1955 and 1956 respec-
tively. He spent 14 years working as a nuclear physicist on the
development of such advanced technological systems as nuclear
aircraft, fission nuclear rockets, fusion rockets, and portable nuclear
power-plants for space and terrestrial applications. He became
interested in flying saucers in 1958 and since 1967 has lectured about
them at more than 600 colleges and over 100 professional groups in
all 50 states, all 10 Canadian provinces, and in 18 other countries. He
has appeared on hundreds of radio and television programs, has
debated at Oxford University and on the radio show Coast to Coast
AM. The city of Roswell named him to their Roswell UFO Hall of
Fame in 2010.
Joe Nickell is a full-time professional paranormal investigator
and a Roswell skeptic and disbeliever. He is the “Investigative Files”
writer for Skeptical Inquirer science magazine and travels around
the world investigating strange mysteries at the fringes of science.
Joe Nickell is in his fourth decade as an investigator of historical,
paranormal, and forensic mysteries, myths and hoaxes. He is the
author of “Real-Life X-Files: Investigating the Paranormal” and the
co-author of “The UFO Invasion: The Roswell Incident, Alien
Abductions, and Government Coverups.” Dr. Nickell is a former
stage magician, private investigator and academic. He has a Ph.D
in English, focusing on literary investigation and folklore He has
exposed many forgeries, including the notorious “Jack the Ripper
Diary,” and has authenticated many treasures. He is a skeptical
ufologist, one who studies reports of unidentified flying objects
(UFOs). He has conducted hands-on examinations of phenomena
such as statues exhibiting heartbeats and icons that “weep” oily tears
He has have visited pilrimage sites, conducted experiments regard-
ing the Shroud of Turin, and shaken the bloody hand of a purported
Analysis of Answers 27
stigmatist.
Tom Carey is a Roswell believer and the co-author of the
bestseller “Witness to Roswell,” which will form the basis for an
upcoming feature-length movie about Roswell titled, “Majic Men.”
He also contributed a chapter about Roswell in the UFO anthology
titled, “UFOs & Aliens: is Anybody Out There?” After a stint in the
Air Force where he possessed a top secret clearance, Tom Carey
received a Masters Degree in anthropology from California State
University, Sacramento. He then received a fellowship to pursue a
Ph.D in anthropology at the University of Toronto. Dr. Carey
became the MUFON (Mutual UFO Network) State Section Direc-
tor for Southeastern Pennsylvania (1986-2002). In that capacity, he
investigated local UFO sightings in the Delaware Valley. Since
1991, his research has focused solely on the Roswell incident. He
was a Special Investigator for CUFOS (the J. Allen Hynek Center
for UFO Studies) from 1992-1997 and served on its Board of
Directors from 1997-2001. His portrait appears in the Hall of Fame
at the International UFO Museum and Research Center in Roswell.
With Don Schmitt, Tom Carey was the investigative consultant for
the top-rated 2002 Sci Fi Channel documentary, “The Roswell
Crash: Startling New Evidence.” He has appeared on Larry King
Live, the Fox News Channel, Coast to Coast AM radio show, the
Jeff Rense Show and many other television and radio shows.
Roswell-Related Questions
ITEM: The more knowledge one has about the Roswell
incident, the more one is likely to believe the alien version of
Roswell.
ITEM: Those who know very much about Roswell are

five and a half times as likely to believe Roswell as to
disbelieve Roswell.
ITEM: Those who know very much about the Roswell

incident are four times more likely to believe the alien
version of Roswell than those who know nothing or only the
very basics about the case.
Survey results show that there is indeed a correlation between

the amount of knowledge a person has about the Roswell incident
and the degree to which that same person believes the alien version
of Roswell. In fact, belief in the alien version of Roswell corresponds
symmetrically with the amount of knowledge a person has about the
case.
Unlike the purported haunting of the Amityville Horror house,
where people who know more about the case and live in closer
proximity to the alleged events at the house tend to disbelieve or
know the haunting to be a hoax, with Roswell it is the reverse. The
more a person knows about Roswell, the more a person believes the
alien version.
Of those who know “very much” about the Roswell incident,
two-thirds (66.6 percent) believe that the alien version is either “very
likely” to have happened or are “certain of it.” If those who believe
at least that Roswell is “possible” are added in, then the figure jumps
to 87.6 percent. In other words, 87.6 percent of those who know very
much about Roswell believe at minimum that the alien version is
possible.
Only 12.1 percent of those who know very much about
Roswell Related Questions 29
Roswell believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all.

Of those who know “more than average” (but less than “very
much”) about Roswell, the number of those who believe in Roswell,
while still fairly high, drops considerably. Those who know “more
than average” believe that Roswell is either “very likely” or are
“certain of it” at a 47.9 percentage – a drop of 18.7 points from those
who know “very much.” When adding into those who know “more
than average” and believe Roswell is “possible,” the figure jumps to
83.6 percent. So of those who know “more than average” about
Roswell, 83.6 percent believe the alien version is at least “possible.”
This is a drop of only 4 points from those who know “very much” and
at the same time believe Roswell is at least possible. Clearly, the big
shift from those who know very much to those who know more than
average is in the “possible” category (21 percent of those who know
“very much” and 35.7 percent of those who know “more than
average” say that Roswell is only “possible”). Those who know very
much are obviously more sure of the truth of Roswell than those who
simply know more than average.
Moreover, 16.2 percent of those who know “more than
average” believe that Roswell did not happen at all or is unlikely. This
is now a predictable rise of 4.1 points from those who know “very
much.” The pattern is clear: the less one knows about Roswell, the
more likely one is to doubt it.
Continuing downwards in knowledge about Roswell, those
who know only a “moderate amount” about the case believe that
Roswell is “very likely” or are “certain of it” at a 31 percent clip –
a drop of 35.6 percentage points from those who know “very much”
and a drop of 16.9 percentage points from those who know “more
than average.” When adding in those who believe Roswell is
“possible,” the figure jumps to 73.4 percent, almost as high as those
who know “more than average.” Once again, the shift is to the
“possible” category, meaning that decreasing knowledge about
Roswell leads to increasing doubt.
Also predictable is the rise of those who think Roswell is
unlikely or did not happen at all among the group which knows a
“moderate amount.” That figure jumps to 26.4 percent – 14.3 points
Knowledge of the Roswell Incident
17.3%
66.6% 17.9%
47.9% 31.0%
47.8%
35.8%
16.2% 26.4%
12.1%
Know Very Know More Know Know Only Know

Much Than Moderate the Basics Nothing At
Average Amount All
Believe in Roswell
Do Not Believe in Roswell
higher than those who know “very much,” and 10.2 points higher
than those who know “more than average.”
The next least knowledgeable group of respondents, those who
know “only the very basics” about Roswell, comprises the highest
percentage of all respondents to the survey (33 percent of the total).
This group continues the trend of the less knowledge about Roswell,
the less belief in it. Of those who know “only the very basics,” only
17.9 percent believe that Roswell “very likely” happened or are
“certain of it.” This is a drop of 48.7 percentage points from those
who know “very much.” Broken down even further, a miniscule 2.5
percent of those who know “only the very basics” are “certain” that
Roswell happened; 15.3 percent think it “very likely.”
The percentage rises dramatically for the “only the very
basics” group when adding in those who believe Roswell is “pos-
sible” (46.1 percent), making the total of the “only the very basics”
group who believe Roswell is at least possible 64 percent. This
continues the downward trend in belief and the trend toward bulking
up the middle of the road “possible” category.
Those who know “only the very basics” believe at a rate of
35.8 percent that Roswell either did not happen at all or is unlikely
to have happened – a jump of 9.4 points from the slightly more
knowledgeable group, those who know a “moderate amount.”
Finally, there is the least knowledgeable group of all, those who
know “nothing at all” before reading the introduction to the survey.
While this group comprises the lowest number of total respondents
to the survey (6.5 percent), they are a crucial and interesting part of
the respondents. And indeed they continue the trend, making up the
lowest total of those who believe Roswell “very likely” happened or
are “certain of it,” only 17.3 percent. Another 34.7 percent believe
that it is “possible” that Roswell happened, making it 52 percent of
that group believing that Roswell is at least possible – again the
lowest percentage. Moreover, a whopping 47.8 percent of those
who know “nothing at all” believe that Roswell is unlikely to have
happened or do not believe it happened at all, a jump of 12 points from
the next most skeptical group, those who know “only the very
basics.”
An easier way of following the trend is to point out that those
who know very much about the Roswell incident are four times more
likely to believe the alien version of Roswell than those who know
nothing or only the very basics about the case. And those who know
very much are more than twice as likely to believe the alien version
of Roswell as those who know a moderate amount. Those who know
very much about Roswell are five and a half times as likely to believe
Roswell as to disbelieve Roswell. Those who know more than
average are three times as likely to believe Roswell as to disbelieve
Roswell.
On the other hand, those who know only the basics about
Roswell are twice as likely to disbelieve Roswell as to believe
Roswell.
And those who know nothing about Roswell are four times as
likely to disbelieve the Roswell incident as those who know very
much, and are three times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those
who know more than average.
There is no doubt now that this trend of knowledge-belief exists
with regard to the Roswell incident. The question is why. With over
1,000 people surveyed, the trend is both stubborn and consistent, with
an unwavering sliding scale where belief in Roswell rises or
diminishes symmetrically with how much one knows about the case.
This is contrary to some anecdotal experience I have with the
Amityville Horror house. When people have been asked what they
know generally about the Amityville Horror, they answer simply that
it involves a haunted house. However, the closer people live to New
York, the less likely they are to believe that the house was haunted.
The only explanation for this is that New Yorkers are more likely to
know the details of the case, which were reported more frequently
and in more detail in New York than in the rest of the country. Most
people do not realize that a federal judge ruled the haunting a hoax
based on evidence. More people in New York seem to know this.
While there has never been a poll or survey conducted about this, my
anecdotal experience shows that this is the case.
Likewise with the Kennedy assassination. Some people for
many years believed the conventional wisdom – that there simply
had to be some kind of conspiracy involved. But as many of the same
people became more knowledgeable and educated about the foren-
sic evidence, they finally concluded differently – that Lee Harvey
Oswald indeed acted alone.
Why the more knowledge one has about Roswell, the more one
is likely to believe it can be explained in two ways. It is the classic
chicken-egg conundrum. What comes first – the knowledge or the
belief? Are people whose pre-conceived propensities are to believe
that such an amazing event is possible simply more likely to make the
effort to educate themselves and find out more about this incredible
story because they find it so interesting? Or does the knowledge

come first? Is it the case that an otherwise neutral person began
reading about Roswell, and the more he discovered, the more he
believed? Is the evidence that convincing?
It is probably the case that those who have an interest in
extraterrestrial life, space flight, and the cosmos are both more
inclined to educate themselves about these things, and similarly,
more apt to believe something like Roswell, which conforms to their
natural inclinations.
Naturally, the prominent Roswell believers are unsurprised by
this finding and believe it buttresses their own views and the facts
that they have uncovered. Stanton Friedman says, “That’s exactly
what I’d expect. After giving 700 lectures, I can say that I have a
great deal of faith in the ability of the public to reach rational
conclusions if they get the data presented to them. Often they will
have opinions that are based on tabloids or are based on noisy
negativists or a quick two minutes on a television show, but when
they really dig in and they learn about the facts, then I would expect
them to be more convinced because the facts are very convincing.”
Friedman adds, “People who have made a serious effort to get
information would of course be convinced by the facts presented by
those of us who have done in-depth research.”
Tom Carey agrees. “Most people who do not believe some-
thing happened of an alien nature at Roswell really don’t know
anything about it or they know very little. Once they start reading the
literature they say, ‘Oh my God. I didn’t know there was this much
information about it.’ We have changed some skeptical minds with
the facts.”
Carey also refers to a debate he had with the Roswell skeptic
Bill Nye. “The sad fact was that he didn’t know anything about
Roswell. The information really points to an extraterrestrial event.
People like Michael Shermer and Bill Nye have a belief system that
doesn’t allow for this. Those people are stuck in a warp.”
Expectedly, Shermer and fellow skeptic Joe Nickell have an
entirely different take on the finding that knowledge of Roswell
increases belief in Roswell. Nickell states, “It’s one of the most
interesting findings and probably the most crucial in order to really

understand what’s going on. At first you would think that the more
you know about something, the better informed you are. In a
scientific way, you’ve been empirical, you know the evidence and
you’re making a reasoned judgment. You would think, therefore,
that the more you shed light on something like Roswell or even the
Shroud of Turin, the more skeptical you would be.
“But what’s happening is that people have access to books,
most of which are pro – the information that’s coming out is not
skeptical. There are skeptical books on Roswell and on the Shroud
of Turin but they don’t sell well. Believers are buying books because
they want to reinforce their beliefs.”
Nickell elaborates on how different people handle evidence. “I
believe there are two polarities of approaching evidence,” he says.
“One approach uses the organ above the neck, is reasoned and
evidence-based and careful and cool and looks to amass facts and
lets the evidence speak and reaches a conclusion. That’s my
skeptical approach. The other method would be – particularly with
the paranormal – they think with the organ below the neck. They feel
it in their hearts, their gut reaction. These are emotional responses.
With the paranormal, believers tend to respond with their hopes and
their fears. They hope we are not alone in the universe, so they
believe in Roswell.”
Shermer thinks believing in something about which one pos-
sesses more knowledge is actually a matter of human nature and the
way the brain works. He states, “The average person is not thinking
like a scientist. With the average person, we know from other studies
that just simply comprehending an idea leads you to accept it as true
more likely than if you don’t comprehend it.
“For example, Sam Harris did a study in 2008, a brain scan
study at UCLA, in which he contrasted statements that were
obviously true, statements that were obviously false and statements
where you couldn’t tell if they were true or false. They had a whole
series of these while people were picking ‘true’, ‘false’ or ‘uncer-
tain’ on a keyboard inside the brain scanner. What he found was that
the fastest, quickest and most rewarding button to push, according
to the brain, was the things that were obviously true. You grasp it,
you understand it, you accept it.”
ITEM: Those who base their opinion of Roswell on their

preconceived notions rather than on the facts of the case are
twice as likely to hold the opinion that Roswell didn’t happen.
ITEM: Those who believe Roswell are two and a half

times as likely to base their beliefs on the specific facts of the
case rather than on their pre-conceived notions.
One of the important questions in this analysis is whether or not

someone’s opinion of Roswell is based on pre-conceived notions or
on the specific facts of the case. This is key because human nature
is such that one’s own established belief system often plays a huge
role in one’s view of a particular event. A perfect example is the
historical proofs of Christ’s resurrection (not those based on faith).
Christian apologists such as William Lane Craig have engaged in
many debates and speeches laying out the historical physical
evidence for the resurrection, such as the empty tomb, the post-
crucifixion appearances of Christ, the change in the personalities of
the disciples, and so forth. Craig, for example, goes out of his way
to assure that he is presenting only the physical evidence and nothing
more. Yet naturalists, who have an a priori disinclination to believe
anything supernatural, tend to rule out the resurrection as something
that is simply impossible, notwithstanding the physical evidence. In
the same vein, Christian believers based on faith are much more
inclined to believe the physical evidence of an event that they already
believe because of their predispositions. It is simply very hard to get
people to change their very strongly-held core beliefs, even with
impressive facts.
Therefore, it is interesting to know to what extent one’s
preconceived notions play a role in one’s ultimate opinion about
Roswell. This applies to both believers and non-believers in Roswell.
Undoubtedly, there are those who will never believe in Roswell,
short of shaking hands with an alien, and those who will believe
simply out of a strong desire to believe. The question is so pertinent

that it was asked twice in the survey, in two different ways. The first
question was straightforward, asking if one’s opinion was based on
the specific facts or on pre-conceived notions.
Of those who base their opinion of Roswell on their pre-
conceived notions, 39.5 percent believe Roswell did not happen,
while 21.5 percent believe Roswell is “very likely” or are “certain of
it.”
Looked at another way, 28.1 percent of those who believe
Roswell is “very likely” or are “certain of it” based their opinion of
the case on their pre-conceived notions. Over two and a half times,
71.8 percent, based their belief in Roswell on the specific facts of the
case. This would indicate more of a trend toward listening to the
facts on the part of believers, rather than a determination to believe
no matter the evidence.
Of those who believe Roswell is “unlikely” or do not believe it
at all, 60.7 percent hold that belief based on their pre-conceived
notions. The remaining 39.2 percent state that their view is based on
the specific facts of the case. Presumably then, this 39.2 percent
group might believe in Roswell if the facts were more convincing to
them. The 60.7 percent who do not believe in Roswell and base their
opinion on their pre-conceptions are essentially admitting that the
idea of aliens landing on Earth is simply too fantastic to believe, no
matter what evidence is presented to them.
So those who disbelieve Roswell are twice as likely to base
their beliefs on their pre-conceived notions as those who believe
Roswell.
The middle of the road group, those who think Roswell is
“possible,” break down as follows: 58.3 percent base that belief on
the specific facts, while 41.6 base it on their pre-conceived notions.
What all of this tends to show is that it is simply harder for
people with strongly-held pre-conceptions to believe in something as
incredible as Roswell as it is for those with such strong beliefs to
disbelieve it. Since more non-believers base their view on their pre-
conceptions, this would also tend to demonstrate that the facts have
got to be very convincing to get natural skeptics to believe.
Since 67 percent of total respondents believe Roswell is at least

“possible,” the answers to this question also tend to show that for
71.8 percent of believers, the facts of the case are, in fact, quite
convincing.
Joe Nickell defends the proposition that it is perfectly fine to
disbelieve Roswell based on one’s pre-conceived notions because of
the extraordinary nature of the Roswell claim. “We have to look at
this issue in its broader context,” he says. “If we were talking about
something that was a dispassionate issue like whether or not an
airplane crashed, where there were few motivations to get on a
Pre-Conceived Notions or Specific Facts
28.1%
41.6%
60.7%
71.8%
58.3%
39.2%
Believe in Do Not Believe

Roswell Believe in Roswell is
Roswell "Possible"
Base Opinion of Roswell on Pre-Conceived Notions
Base Opinion of Roswell on the Specific Facts of the Case

particular hypothesis, then I think people can do a pretty good job in

looking at the evidence. But what happens with something like
Roswell is that at face value, at first sight, it seems far-fetched.”
He continues, “I think you can be wrongly skeptical toward
something like whether or not the Holocaust happened. I advocate
that we be skeptical towards those things to which skepticism is due.
We need to prioritize our skepticism. We have a saying: ‘Extraordi-
nary claims require extraordinary proof.’ I’m never one who
dismisses things out of hand. I’m not a debunker. I advocate
investigating claims. I am a former detective. But when you hear
something like Roswell, your suspicions should go up.”
On the other side, Stanton Friedman thinks the finding “makes
perfect sense” and is exactly what he expects, but in a negative
sense. He also has harsh words for Nickell’s methods. “Roswell’s
got a huge amount of data which is misrepresented. Joe Nickell said
about ten years ago that a public relations guy made it up to get
attention. The notion that Walter Haut would put out a phony story
is just untrue [referring to the army’s public information officer at
Roswell at the time of the incident]. Ten years later, Nickell puts out
the same story. ‘Don’t bother me with the facts. My mind’s made
up.’”
Tom Carey is equally disdainful of what he views as the closed
mind of the typical Roswell skeptic. He says, “Those are your
professional skeptic class. A psychologist would have to tell you why
they believe that way. There’s no level of proof you can offer that
will change their minds. They’re set in stone. The more knowledge
you get about Roswell, the more you come over to the side this really
happened.”
Michael Shermer, who says he disbelieves Roswell “without a
smidgen of doubt,” mocks the kind of evidence that Friedman has for
Roswell. “He has no evidence,” Shermer says. “His evidence is
what I call negative evidence. It’s ‘Look, there’s a blacked out
paragraph here on this document.’ That’s not evidence. That’s just
missing data. That doesn’t mean anything. You can’t infer anything
from it.”
Shermer continues, “Ninety-five percent of all UFO sighting
claims are fully explicable by things like swamp gas, balloons, planes
and birds. Five percent are anomalies. This is what’s called the
‘residue problem’ in science. There’s always a residue of unex-
plained mysteries in any field, in any theory and it’s a good thing or
graduate students wouldn’t have anything new to do. If theories
explained everything, science would be over, and no science is ever
over. There’s always a residue of weird anomalies that can’t be
explained. But before you overturn the prevailing theory, your new
theory has to explain the other 95 percent and the five percent. For
the Stan Friedmans of the world, the five percent represents an
entirely new world view, even though his world view doesn’t explain
all the other sightings.”
ITEM: Those who believe in Roswell are more than

three times as likely to be convinced by an expert’s argument
as those who disbelieve Roswell.
A separate question was asked, “Are you open to the possibil-

ity that the ‘Roswell incident’ could be true – if you would allow
yourself to listen to a well-informed expert on the case?” This was
a similar way of asking the previous question.
To this question, 93.1 percent answered “yes” who had said
they believed Roswell “very likely” happened or were “certain of it.”
Obviously, it makes total sense that one who believes Roswell
happened would also state they could be convinced by an expert’s
argument. 6.6 percent of those who are certain or think it very likely
that Roswell happened answered “maybe” they could be convinced
by an expert. Clearly, in this case they already believe in Roswell.
27.2 percent of those who believe it “unlikely” that Roswell
happened or do not believe it at all, said that an expert’s argument
could convince them. This reveals two things: First, this 27.2 percent
are simply unconvinced by the evidence of Roswell as it stands.
Second, this figure is related to the 40 percent figure of the previous
question – those who said their disbelief in Roswell is based on the
facts as they are. The answers, therefore, are fairly consistent,
allowing for the slight difference in the way the questions were
Convinced by an Expert's Argument

0% 0%
15.9%
27.2%
93.1% 76.0%
56.8%
23.9%
6.6%
Roswell "Possible"
Yes, I Could be Convinced by an Expert's Argument About Roswell
"Maybe" an Expert's Argument Could Convince Me
No, Nothing Could Convince Me
asked.
15.9 percent who of those who said Roswell was “unlikely” or
did not believe it at all, answered, “No, nothing could convince me.”
This admission that not even an expert’s arguments could convince
them buttresses the answer on the previous question. While a full
60.7 percent of those who think Roswell didn’t happen base their
belief on their pre-conceived notions, 15.9 percent are so adamant
and sure in their core beliefs that nothing could change their minds.
The remainder clearly falls into the group which answered “maybe”
to the question on the expert’s argument – 56.8 percent of those who
do not believe in Roswell said “maybe” they could be convinced by
an expert. So adding that 56.8 percent with the 15.9 percent for
whom nothing could convince them, the totals are consistent, given
the slight difference in the way the questions were asked.
So those who believe in Roswell are more than three times as
likely to be convinced by an expert’s argument as those who
disbelieve Roswell.
In other words, after exhausting the analysis of both these
questions, the trend still holds that people who are more likely to be
affected by their core beliefs and their pre-conceived notions are
more likely to not believe in Roswell than to believe.
ITEM: There is strong belief that the government

engaged in some sort of cover-up at Roswell, even by those
who do not believe there were aliens there.
Respondents were asked, “Do you believe that the govern-

ment was engaged in a cover-up at Roswell, even if it was not about
aliens?” There were three choices: yes, the government was hiding
something; no, the government version was truthful; and “Question
doesn’t apply – I believe aliens were there.”
Over 80 percent of all respondents believe that the government
was hiding something at Roswell. Obviously and by definition, those
who are certain that Roswell happened, or think it very likely, believe
that the government was hiding something at Roswell. That explains
why 80.6 percent of those who believe in Roswell answered that the
government was hiding something and the other 19.3 percent said
that the question doesn’t apply because aliens were there.
The significant part of the analysis is how people who disbe-
lieve the alien version of Roswell feel about a government cover-up
of some kind. And indeed, of those who believe Roswell unlikely or
did not happen at all, 61.5 percent still believe that there was a cover-
up of some kind, with 38.1 percent believing that the government
version was truthful.
Of those who think Roswell is only “possible,” an overwhelm-

ing 92.7 percent believe the government was hiding something. Only
3.1 percent of those who think Roswell only “possible” believe the
government version was truthful. And 4.1 percent of those who think
Roswell is “possible” believe the question doesn’t apply because
they believe aliens were there (which is an anomaly of sorts since
those people should have answered “certain” or “very likely” about
Belief in a Government Cover-Up at

Roswell even if it was not about Aliens
0% 4.1%
19.3% 3.1%
0% 38.1%
92.7%
80.6%
56.8%

Roswell "Possible"
Yes, Government was Hiding Something
No, Government Version of Roswell was Truthful
Question Doesn't Apply - Aliens Were There

Roswell if they believe aliens were there).

What all of this shows is that even if the alien version is
dismissed, the belief that the United States government covered up
whatever actually took place at Roswell is extremely high. It is the
one question in the survey on which believers on both sides of the
Roswell question most agree.
ITEM: A person who has heard of Project Mogul is

almost three times as likely to believe in Roswell as to
disbelieve it, and is significantly more likely to believe in
Roswell than a person who has not heard of Project Mogul.
It is logical that members of UFO organizations know a great

deal about Roswell and therefore, Project Mogul, which is the
military activity that the government now claims it was keeping a
secret at Roswell in 1947. But even people who do not belong to any
UFO organization can still know about Project Mogul if they are
sufficiently interested in Roswell and have read up on it. Naturally,
those who have heard of Project Mogul would know much more
about Roswell than the average person and would probably be more
likely to believe in the alien version of Roswell.
Of those who have heard of Project Mogul, 49.3 percent
believe that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. Only 17.3
percent of those who have heard of Project Mogul think Roswell is
unlikely or did not happen at all. So a person who has heard of Project
Mogul is almost three times as likely to believe in Roswell as to
disbelieve it. 33.3 percent of those who have heard of Project Mogul
think Roswell is “possible.”
Of those who have not heard of Project Mogul, an identical
number, 29.5 percent, both believe and disbelieve in Roswell. The
remaining 40.9 percent of those who have not heard of Project
Mogul think Roswell is “possible.”
So a person who has heard of Project Mogul is by 20
percentage points (49.3 to 29.5) more likely to believe in Roswell
than a person who has not heard of Project Mogul.
The results of this question serve to further buttress the fact
that the more knowledge one has about Roswell, the more likely one
is to believe Roswell.
Heard of Project Mogul
49.3% 29.5%
Believe in Roswell
29.5%
17.3%
Have Heard Have Not

of Project Heard of
Mogul Project Mogul
Personal Demographics
ITEM: Those with a college degree are less likely to
believe in Roswell than those without a college degree. The
less education a person has, the more likely he is to believe
in Roswell.
Education level is another interesting quality to analyze as to

whether or not it affects belief in Roswell. The results indicate that
possession of a college degree – any college degree – decreases the
probability of one believing in Roswell. In other words, an increase
Personal Demographics 45
in educational attainment from Bachelors to Masters to PhD doesn’t

seem to affect the results. But those with only high school or some
college form a demarcation in belief in Roswell.
Overall, those with a college degree (Bachelors, Masters,
PhD) believe that it is unlikely that Roswell happened or do not
believe it at all at a 34.1 percent rate. So more than one in three
persons with a college degree does not believe in Roswell.
On the other hand, those without a college degree (high school
graduates, high school dropouts, current high school students, and
those with some college) do not believe in Roswell at all or think it
unlikely at a 20.4 percent rate, a drop of 14 points from those with
college degrees.
Non-degreed people believe Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it at a percent of 42.3. Only 23.9 percent of those with
college degrees believe Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. The
difference, therefore, between the two groups with regard to
believing in Roswell (18 points) is even greater than the difference
in non-belief. The remainder fall into the “possible” group, with 37.2
percent of the non-degreed group believing that Roswell is only
“possible,” and the degreed group believing Roswell is “possible” at
41.9 percent.
This educational category continues to be interesting when
broken down even further. PhDs believe Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it at a 23.5 percent rate. Likewise, those with Bachelors
degrees believe Roswell is very likely or are certain of it at a 25.9
percent rate. But those with Masters degrees believe in Roswell the
least, at a rate of 19.8 percent. Since the Masters degree comes in
between the Bachelors and the PhD, there doesn’t appear to be any
explanation as to why Masters degree recipients believe in Roswell
at six points lower than those having Bachelors or four points lower
than PhDs.
35.2 percent of PhDs believe Roswell is either unlikely or did
not happen at all. 32.4 percent of Bachelor degree recipients believe
Roswell to be unlikely or did not happen at all. Once again, the highest
percentage of disbelievers is Masters recipients, at 37.4 percent.
Breaking down non-degreed people, 40.8 percent of those with
Education Level
23.5%
23.5% 19.8% 25.9% 50.5%

53.8% 21.4%
40.8%
35.2% 37.4%
32.4%
19.1% 28.5%
20.6%
15.3%
PhD Masters Bachelors Some High High Currently

College School School in High
Graduate Dropout School
Believe in Roswell
some college believe Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. 50.5
percent of high school graduates believe Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it. 53.8 percent of high school dropouts believe it very likely
or are certain. Only those currently in high school buck the trend –
believing at a 21.4 percent rate that Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it. This can be explained by simply acknowledging that
those currently in high school are constrained into that category by
their age, not by any permanent status. So with this exception, a
decrease in educational attainment among those without college
degrees results in more of a belief in Roswell.
Disbelief in Roswell shows the same trend. 20.6 percent of
Education Level
23.9%
42.3%
Believe in Roswell
34.1%
20.4%
College No College
Degree Degree
those with some college believe Roswell is unlikely or do not believe

it at all. 19.1 percent of high school graduates believe Roswell is
unlikely or do not believe it at all. Only 15.3 percent of high school
dropouts think Roswell unlikely or do not believe it at all. And once
again, those currently in high school go slightly against this trend, as
28.5 percent believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all.
“This finding completely makes sense,” Michael Shermer
says. “Educated people across the board are less religious, less likely
to believe in the paranormal, ESP, and conspiracy theories. All of the
survey findings over the past 25 years on ESP find a reverse
correlation with education. As education goes up, the belief in those
things goes down.”
Shermer continues, “Now you would think, given the state of
our of educational sophistication and being the most technologically
scientific nation on earth, that belief would be practically zero, but it
isn’t. It’s the differences between, say 60 percent belief in ESP
versus 40 percent. It’s still amazing that so many people with college
degrees and graduate degrees still believe in these things. That’s the
only thing that’s surprising.”
Joe Nickell agrees. “I’m not surprised by that finding,” he says.
“The more education you have, the more you are inclined to be a
critical thinker instead of making a judgment from your heart and
then looking for evidence to support your belief. This idea of starting
with a belief and then looking for evidence that supports you is a
tendency that is countered by education. Education teaches you to
not make snap judgments.”
Stan Friedman and Tom Carey have different takes on this
finding. Friedman blames the preponderance of false information put
out about Roswell. Friedman says, “This is one of the more
interesting findings. What we’ve had is the very successful anti-
UFO propaganda put out by Carl Sagan, by the people who get
television time, and by professors of astronomy. [The mentality is]
it is not the right thing to do, to believe in flying saucers. And if you
don’t believe in flying saucers you can’t believe in Roswell.
“I was speaking at an engineering college. After a while
students were nodding their heads in agreement. This despite the
fact that there is no other UFO case in which the government has
spent as much time and effort to say nothing happened. There are
two major reports on Roswell. You can’t find even one major report
on other UFO cases. The Roswell report story was on the front page
of the New York Times.”
Carey also had a unique and interesting view of this education
finding. “At first I thought it was odd but as I thought about it I said
I see what’s going on here. People with advanced degrees have a
status in life, a lot of them are professional people. The higher the
degree the greater the status. My own experience from interviewing
over hundreds of people over 20 years –– public figures, politicians,
doctors, lawyers –– is that they almost universally come down on the
side of ‘I don’t know anything about this. I don’t want to talk about
it. I don’t believe in it.’ It’s because their livelihood depends on their
reputation and professional credibility. And UFO’s are still poison to
these people. They don’t want their name in the same paragraph as
a UFO, let alone Roswell.”

Carey also said that many of these people are being downright
dishonest, secretly harboring the opinion that Roswell might be true
but not wanting to admit it for career and status reasons.
ITEM: A background in science makes one slightly less

likely to believe in Roswell.
By a small percentage, those with a background in science are

less likely to believe in Roswell than those without a background in
science. Of course, the “background in science” category is not
broken down any further, so it includes everyone from nuclear
physicists to high school biology teachers, making these small
percentage differences probably insignificant. 29.5 percent of those
with a background in science believe Roswell is very likely or are
Background in Science
29.5%
34.1%
Believe in Roswell
31.9%
25.7%
Background No Background
in Science in Science
certain it happened, while 31.9 percent believe Roswell is unlikely or

did not happen at all. Of those without a background in science, 34.1
percent believe Roswell is very likely or are certain of it, while 25.7
percent of that group believe Roswell unlikely or did not happen at
all. So the difference between the two groups on both questions is
about only four points.
Without breaking down the “background in science” any
further, it is hard to know whether full-time scientists, who tend to
be naturalists, would be greater doubters than Catholic high school
biology teachers. Nevertheless, the small trend may show the
beginnings of a more significant difference if further broken down.
ITEM: Those who have been in the military are both

more likely to have a strong belief in Roswell and a strong
disbelief in Roswell than those without military experience.
Since Roswell involves a military cover-up and includes

members of the military who were both part of the cover-up and
those who exposed the cover-up, military people may have a unique
outlook on something as fantastic as Roswell. Are military people
more knowledgeable about what the government is capable of and,
therefore, have a higher degree of skepticism about government? Or
are military people more likely to defend their government?
The fact is that the survey results show a definite higher belief
in Roswell by people with a military background than those who have
no military experience. 37.7 percent of those who have been in the
military believe Roswell is very likely to have happened or are certain
of it. 33 percent think it is unlikely or are certain that it did not happen.
Of those with no military background, 31.8 percent believe
Roswell is very likely or are certain of it, with 27 percent believing
Roswell to be unlikely or did not happen at all. This is also interesting
because the percentage of military doubters is also higher than non-
military doubters. What that means is that in the middle category,
those thinking Roswell is only “possible,” the military answer is only
29.1 percent. The non-military answer of “possible” is 41.1 percent.
So it seems that military people are more certain of their answer

(whatever that answer may be). Nevertheless, it is revealing that
military people by a solid six points are more likely to believe strongly
in Roswell than non-military people.
Tom Carey has a very unique take on this finding and actually
distinguishes between officers and enlisted men. He says, “Most of
my interviews over the years have been with military people or their
survivors and the one thing that stands out for me is that it depends
on your rank. The officer class by and large did not buy into Roswell.
Most of the witnesses to an extraterrestrial event have come from
the enlisted ranks. Those who retired on government pensions
wouldn’t talk about it or denied the reality of it. Those who point to
extraterrestrials are non-careerists not on a government pension.”
Military Experience
37.7%
31.8%
Believe in Roswell
33.0% 27.0%
Military No Military
Experience Experience
ITEM: Catholics are the most likely of any specific

religious group to believe in Roswell, followed by Protes-
tants. Jews are the least likely religious group to believe in
Roswell. Atheists and agnostics are significantly less likely
than all religious believers to believe in Roswell.
Since the United States is overwhelmingly a Christian country,

the highest response to the survey by religion (without regard to level
of commitment) was from Catholics and Protestants. The survey
results allowed for all possible reasonable responses, including
“other”, “spiritual but no specific religion”, and “atheist/agnostic.”
Undoubtedly, many of the respondents who placed themselves in
those categories were born into Christian families, but the analysis
will view people by the category in which they placed themselves.
It should be pointed out that the number of respondents who
answered “Moslem” or “Hindu” were so small as to make any
analysis of them as distinct groups statistically invalid. So while
Moslems and Hindus cannot be analyzed separately, they will be
included for the purposes of analysis in “non-Christians”, “believers”
or “non-atheist/agnostics.” Furthermore, Catholics and Protestants
will be analyzed separately and also together as “Christians.”
Of the specific religions, Catholics had the highest rate of
response with 34.9 percent believing Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it. They were followed by Protestants, who believe by 27.3
percent that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. Jews were the
least likely of the specific religions to believe in Roswell, at 22.2
percent. Disbelieving in Roswell also fell into the same order among
the specific religions, with Jews having the highest rate of disbelief
and Catholics the lowest. Jews believe that Roswell is unlikely or did
not happen at all at 36.1 percent, Protestants at 31.3 percent, and
Catholics at 25.5 percent.
The group that actually has the highest rate of belief in Roswell
is the “spiritual, but no specific religion” respondents. They believe
at 47.8 percent that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it, and at
only 14.6 percent that Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. Of
those who answered “other,” 36.4 percent believe that Roswell is
Specific Religion
22.2% 19.9%
27.3%
34.9%
47.8%
36.4%
42.1%
25.5% 31.3%
36.1% 14.6% 18.2%
Catholic Protestant Jewish Spiritual, Other Atheist/

No Agnostic
Specific
Religion
Believe in Roswell
very likely or are certain of it, and only 18.2 percent believe that
Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all.
Predictably, the atheist/agnostic group had the lowest rate of
belief in Roswell, 19.9 percent, and the highest rate of disbelief in
Roswell at 42.1 percent. This is consistent with the previously
established trend that atheists and agnostics are simply the least
inclined to believe anything that they cannot see tangibly and for
which there is no definitive proof.
Of all religious “believers” (all categories excluding atheists
and agnostics) 35.9 percent believe that Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it, 16 points higher than atheist/agnostics.
Christians as a group (Catholics and Protestants) believe in
Roswell at 31.1 percent, 8 points higher than Jews. Non-Christian

believers (including Hindus and Moslems) believe in Roswell at 41.3
percent, although this number is skewed in a higher direction
because of the high totals of the “spiritual” group and the “other”
group. What this question reveals is that religious believers of any
kind are significantly more likely than atheists or agnostics to believe
in Roswell.
Of the four men offering commentary, Stanton Friedman is the
only one who was born a Jew. He says he was raised in a Jewish
home, was first married in a Jewish ceremony, went to Temple, and
also taught religion at one time. Although today he is unsure of the
existence of God and is basically agnostic, he does offer an insider’s
view of what he terms the basic Jewish mentality. As to Jews being
the least likely of all the major religions to believe in Roswell, he said,
“At first, I found this surprising, being Jewish. But the reliance on the
word from ‘on high’ is much higher among Catholics than among
Jews. Protestants are somewhere in the middle. You have three
Jews, you get five opinions. Jews don’t buy into anything. It is partly
that [Jewish character or nature]. It is the wanting to go along with
authority figures, scientists being on the top of the heap. Carl Sagan
was Jewish and put out strong anti-UFO propaganda.”
Tom Carey, who was raised Lutheran, is Catholic on his
father’s side but is now agnostic, agrees. “Stan is right. Jews tend
to be hard-wired liberals and leftists and it goes along with that.
Catholics are more blue collar and less educated.”
Michael Shermer, who describes himself as an atheist, but says
he probably technically is an agnostic since the existence of God is
“unknowable,” says, “Jews are more educated than Catholics so the
education factor explains that.”
Joe Nickell, who is not religious, actually agrees with Friedman’s
take on Jewish nature. “I think he has something there. That
comports with my personal experience. My knowledge of Jews and
rabbis I know is that they tend to be a skeptical lot.” But Nickell
focuses more on Catholic belief than Jewish disbelief. “I think
Catholics have all the good stuff. They have weeping statues; they
have stigmata; they have the Shroud of Turin. It’s a long, long list of
really dubious claims. Methodists just don’t have those. Catholics

have them in profusion. If you were raised in a culture that
encourages magical thinking, such as Lourdes, if you are encour-
aged to think those things are likely, you are inclined to say, ‘Faith
first, science second.’”
Nickell also comments on the confusing finding that those who
identify themselves as “spiritual” surpass even Catholics in their
belief in Roswell. He says, “When I hear that term, and I hear it quite
a bit in my line of work, I hear people frequently say ‘I’m not so much
religious but spiritual.’ I hear that from New Agers, who tend to
believe in astrology and getting in tune with their chopras, and
alternative medicine and clairvoyance, and so on. It would seem to
me that that crowd would be just ripe for believing in something like
Roswell because the New Agers strike me as being a group that
tends to think with their emotions. I’ve known many New Agers who
are often a lovely bunch, but they tend to decide on something
emotionally, then look for evidence to back it up.”
ITEM: The more conservative one’s politics, the more

likely one is to believe in Roswell. But those who are
apolitical are the most likely to believe in Roswell.
Respondents were asked to describe their politics, and in one

of two very interesting results, high level of belief in Roswell
corresponds directly with how conservative one’s politics are. Of
those who described their politics as “very conservative,” 43.1
percent believe that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. Those
who label themselves “conservative” believe in Roswell at 36.6
percent. “Moderates” believe at 30.2 percent. Of those who are
“liberal,” 29.7 percent believe Roswell is very likely or are certain of
it. The “very liberal” believe in Roswell the least, 24.4 percent. So
the trend follows consistently from very conservative to very liberal,
without any deviation.
Disbelief in Roswell follows almost the same scale. The more
liberal one’s politics, the less likely one believes in Roswell. Those
who are very liberal believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at
all at 34.3 percent. Liberals disbelieve Roswell at 28.8 percent.
Conservatives actually jump over moderates here in disbelief at 27.9
percent, with moderates disbelieving Roswell at 26.4 percent. Those
who are very conservative disbelieve at the lowest rate, 25.4
percent. As usual, all of the remaining percentages for all the groups
fall into the “possible” answer of belief in Roswell.
In this question’s other remarkable finding, those who are
“apolitical” are the most likely to believe in Roswell, believing at a
higher percentage than all the ideological categories. “Apolitical” is
defined, of course, as having no interest or association with politics.
The apolitical believe that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it
at 47.9 percent, which is four points higher than the very conserva-
tive, and 23 points higher than the very liberal. So the apolitical are
twice as likely to believe in Roswell as the very liberal.
Apolitical people also have the lowest rate of disbelief in
Roswell. Only 18.3 percent of apolitical people believe Roswell is
unlikely or did not happen at all.
Analysis of this question’s results should actually be done in
two separate categories. First, as to why belief in Roswell corre-
sponds to the degree of one’s conservative versus liberal politics, and
second, why those with no interest in politics have the highest belief
in Roswell.
Regarding one’s politics, it would seem that the results confirm
the question about one’s religious belief. Just as the more religious
someone is the more likely one is to believe in Roswell, conservatives
tend to be more religious than liberals. This would be consistent with
the notion that religious people are more likely to take things “on
faith”, and are therefore more likely to believe something as fantastic
as Roswell without the kind of tangible definitive proof that the non-
religious require.
On the other result of this question, there does not appear to be
any obvious reason as to why the apolitical are more likely to believe
in Roswell than people who have political leanings. The Roswell
incident is not a political event, other than perhaps bringing out a
propensity to distrust the government which, in different eras, has
been the province of both liberals (as during the Vietnam War) and
conservatives (as at the time of the Waco incident). Only a further
examination of apolitical people might explain this finding.
All of this is consistent with a separate finding about knowledge
of Roswell. Of those who know more than average or very much
about Roswell, 41 percent are very conservative; 36.5 percent are
conservative; liberal, 24.3 percent; very liberal, 28.1 percent; apoliti-
cal, 30.6 percent.
In yet another separate finding that shows consistency, con-
servatives are indeed more religious than liberals. Of those who
describe themselves as very religious, the percentages are as
follows: very conservative, 37.2 percent; conservative, 26.7 percent,
Political Philosophy
43.1% 24.4%
36.6% 29.7%
30.2% 47.9%
28.8% 34.3%
25.4% 27.9% 26.4%
18.3%
Very Conservative Moderate Liberal Very Apolitical

Conservative Liberal
Believe in Roswell

liberal, 9.1 percent; very liberal, 4.5 percent.

Skeptic Michael Shermer’s best guess is that the political
finding is a substitute for education. “I think my liberal friends would
say liberals are more educated, but I don’t know.” Joe Nickell, who
describes himself as a liberal, says, “There might be a correlation
between conservatism and fundamentalist religion.” Nickell focuses
on the unusual finding about the apolitical when he states, “I would
make an analogy between this finding and the finding about spiritual
people. Apolitical people would be more outsiders, more distrustful
of authority, more maverick in their thinking. They’d be more given
to making their own decisions. ‘I think for myself, I don’t need any
scientific priestcraft to tell me what to think.’ That could be good, but
it can also be that people who have crank beliefs often are mavericks
who think for themselves.”
Roswell believer Tom Carey states, “This finding is explained
by the fact that conservatives tend to be more like real folks who
want to be left alone. Low profile. Liberals tend to be activist and
cause-oriented. It goes with their status and they believe their
reputation will be besmirched if they’re associated with subjects like
UFO’s.”
Stanton Friedman says, “I was a little bit surprised by the
finding. Maybe conservatives are ready to believe the government
doesn’t tell us the truth. I was intrigued with that. I grew up orthodox.
No pork until age 16. I taught Sunday school. I was in choir, went to
temple, my son was bar mitzvahed. I consider myself a Jew. I don’t
know if I believe in God. I probably call myself liberal, but not left-
wing.”
ITEM: There is virtually no difference between Repub-

licans and Democrats regarding belief in Roswell.
Respondents were asked which of the two major political

parties they most closely identify themselves with. It is no surprise
that party affiliation is a less reliable philosophical indicator than
specific ideological descriptions like liberal or conservative. There
are, after all, many conservative Democrats and many moderate
Republicans. So it should come as no surprise that party identifica-

tion is less meaningful when determining one’s likelihood to believe
in Roswell.
In fact, Republicans and Democrats are virtually indistinguish-
able regarding their level of belief in Roswell. 33.8 percent of
Republicans believe Roswell is very likely or are certain of it, while
32.2 percent of Democrats believe so.
Likewise, Republicans believe Roswell is unlikely or did not
happen at all at a 29 percent rate. Of Democrats, 27.4 percent
believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all.
What this all indicates is that political ideological labels are
much more useful in determining likelihood to believe Roswell than
party affiliation.
In a separate but interesting finding, Republicans know more
about Roswell than Democrats, even though this does not translate
into different degrees of belief. 35.5 percent of Republicans know
more than average or very much about Roswell, while 25.7 percent
of Democrats know as much.
Political Party
33.8% 32.2%
Believe in Roswell
29.0% 27.4%
Republican Democrat
ITEM: Non-whites are more likely than whites to be-

lieve in Roswell. This is true for non-whites both collectively
and each group separated individually – blacks, Hispanics,
and those of mixed race.
The overwhelming majority of respondents to this survey were

whites. However, with the exception of Asians, there were suffi-
cient numbers of responses from all the major races to determine
individual results about them. The response from Asians was too
low, thereby making any statistical analysis about them invalid.
However, Asians were included when calculating figures for non-
whites as an aggregate group.
Respondents classified themselves as black, white, mixed,
Asian, or non-white Hispanic. The category “mixed” was included
so as to not require an inordinate number of combinations. So
“mixed” is by definition ambiguous. But it is important that the three
major American classifications (black, white, and Hispanic) be
analyzed.
The highest rate of belief in Roswell was from the “mixed”
group, with 48.2 percent of mixed race people believing that Roswell
is very likely or are certain of it. Of mixed race people, 19.6 percent
believe Roswell unlikely or did not happen at all.
Of the three major groups in the United States, blacks had the
highest rate of belief in Roswell. Of blacks, 45.8 percent believe that
Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. Blacks also had the lowest
rate of disbelief in Roswell (lower even than mixed race people).
Only 16.6 percent of blacks believe Roswell is unlikely or did not
happen at all.
Non-white Hispanics believe Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it at 38 percent, while 26.3 percent believe Roswell is
Whites had both the lowest rate of belief in Roswell and the
highest rate of disbelief. 31.4 percent of whites believe Roswell is
very likely or are certain of it, while 28.4 percent of whites believe
Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all – less than a three point
Race
38.0% 31.4% 48.2%

45.8%
26.3% 28.4%
19.6%
16.6%
Blacks Non-White Whites Mixed Race

Hispanics
Believe in Roswell
difference. The remaining numbers for all races fell into the
“possible” answer with regard to belief in Roswell.
Of all non-whites added together as a group (including Asians),
38.4 percent believe Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. Of all
non-whites, 23 percent believe Roswell unlikely or did not happen at
all.
These results by race can only be attributable to other qualities
that racial groups possess. For example, non-whites may be more
religious than whites and are on average less educated, both qualities
that correspond with a higher rate of belief in Roswell.
Joe Nickell has a perspective on blacks in particular. “As a civil

rights worker I’m certainly very defensive about nonwhites as
minorities and feel they need to be defended and protected. I find that
they may be more religious. I remember what happened after the
phony faith healer Peter Popoff was caught – his hearing aid was
actually a radio receiver and he wasn’t getting a word of knowledge
from God about people’s illnesses, but backstage his wife was
reading to him what people had written out on prayer cards. After
that scandal had basically ended his career, I went to Toronto to see
his appearance and I was astonished at the great number of African-
Americans who were at a Popoff crusade. It really angered me that
he was really taking advantage of the relatively unsophisticated and
more poorly educated.”
Nickell also had a take on Hispanics. “I think it’s being less
Race
38.4% 31.4%
Believe in Roswell
23.0% 28.4%
Non-Whites Whites
(Including
Asians)
educated, coming from poorer areas. And the same with Hispanics
regarding Virgin Mary sightings, where someone has seen the face
of the Virgin Mary in tree bark. And they’re lined up. I’ve seen a
large number of Hispanics being drawn to something like that. I think
if you polled them you would find they are by and large more religious
and less educated and more likely to go with their feelings.”
Stan Friedman also comments on blacks. “I was rather
interested in the finding because I find there aren’t too many blacks
involved in ufology. But I think it would be natural for people who
don’t believe the government has always played it straight, and
certainly blacks and native populations have good reason to believe
the government doesn’t always do nice things. Remember slavery
was legal. It reflects a larger picture of distrust in government. White
guys in power don’t want there to be aliens.”
Tom Carey states, “The only thing I can think of is education.
Distrust in government might make them believe in conspiracy
theories more, and the lower educational level.”
ITEM: The older a person is, the more likely that

person will believe in Roswell.
Surprisingly, age is a very reliable indicator as to the likelihood

of a person believing in Roswell. Of the five age categories that
respondents are in, only the 14-17 bracket had such a low response
that a separate analysis on that age range is statistically invalid.
While those aged 14-17 cannot be analyzed individually, they are
included in the “below 50” category. Responses to the other four age
ranges indicate that the older a person is, the more likely the belief
in Roswell.
Those over 65 had the highest rate of belief in Roswell at 41.1
percent, believing that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it.
Those aged 50-65 believe Roswell at 39.2 percent. People in the 30-
49 age group believe in Roswell at 34.8 percent. The group with the
lowest belief in Roswell is the ages of 18-29, who believe that

Roswell is very likely or are certain of it at 25 percent.
When dividing the respondents into only two groups – those 50
and above and those below 50 – the results are just as clear and stark.
39.5 percent of those 50 and above believe Roswell is very likely or
are certain of it, while those below 50 believe at a 30.1 percent rate,
a significant 10 point drop for the younger group. This is a remarkably
consistent finding.
Even more remarkable are the possible reasons for it. Clearly,
it is mistaken to believe that “older and wiser” makes one less likely
to believe in something as fantastic as Roswell. To those who
strongly disbelieve that aliens landed at Roswell, it must come as a
shock that the oldest segment of the population is the one which most
believes in the alien version of Roswell. And it must be an equal
shock to find that the youngest in society are the least likely to
believe. Of course, to those who adamantly believe in the alien
version of Roswell, this finding probably makes perfect sense.
There are several possible explanations for this. First, it may
simply be that the case for Roswell is so convincing that mature
minds are more likely to grasp it. But that becomes circular reasoning
and brings the discussion right back to the beginning, as to whether
or not the evidence for aliens is convincing.
It may also be that older Americans have seen more alleged
conspiratorial behavior by the government, such as the Kennedy
assassination, the Vietnam War, and September 11th, and are
considerably influenced by it.
Moreover, older people may have more knowledge about
Roswell or may be more religious than young people. And it has
already been shown that the more religious one is, the more likely one
is to believe in Roswell.
Disbelief in Roswell is almost as consistent across the age
ranges. The only deviation from this trend is that those over 65 also
have the highest rate of disbelief in Roswell – 35.2 percent – as well
as having the highest rate of belief. This means that those over 65
are the most certain in their beliefs and have the lowest rate of
answering “possible”, only 23.5 percent.
The rest of the responses are consistent with the original
finding. Those aged 18-29 have the highest rate of disbelief, 31.1
percent. Those aged 30-49 disbelieve Roswell at 27.2 percent, and
those aged 50-65 disbelieve at 22.6 percent. All those under age 50
disbelieve Roswell at 29 percent, and those 50 and over disbelieve
at 24.1 percent.
Clearly happy with the finding and unsurprised by it are the
Roswell believers, Tom Carey and Stanton Friedman. Carey says,
Age
41.1%
34.8% 25.0%
39.2%
35.2% 31.1%
27.2%
22.6%
Over 65 50-65 30-49 18-29
Believe in Roswell

“It has to do with knowledge. The older you are the more chance
you’ve had to read about Roswell, see documentaries, movies and
more experiences in life. This falls right into the finding about
knowledge. The people who believe in Roswell are more knowl-
edgeable. The more knowledge you have, the more you tend to
believe Roswell involved the landing of an alien space ship.”
Friedman agrees, stating, “[The finding is] very fascinating.
This is something that has changed drastically. Previously, the older
generation wouldn’t believe in UFO’s. We were taught that our solar
system was unique. Now the best argument for UFO’s is that we
can’t possibly be the only ones around because people have gotten
a much better appreciation of how old and how big the universe is.”
Not surprisingly, the skeptics Michael Shermer and Joe Nickell
see this age finding in a somewhat different light. Shermer states, “I
Age
30.1%
39.5%
Believe in Roswell
29.0%
24.1%
50 and Over Under 50

(Including
Age 14-17)
was surprised at the finding at first simply because I thought as you

get older you get more skeptical, but it’s probably due to the
awareness factor. I suspect it’s an indirect proxy for something else,
probably just awareness of Roswell in the first place – that the
younger the person the less aware the person is of the details of
Roswell or what happened. A younger person has seen fewer
documentaries about it, although that seems hard to believe because
the History Channel is always pumping out documentaries on it.
Although the History Channel is probably watched by older guys and
not by people in their 20’s and 30’s. Age is just a proxy for
awareness.”
Nickell was more circumspect, stating, “The finding did sur-
prise me a bit. But maybe education is not as high the farther back
you go. It may be that the over 65 group is not as well-educated,
maybe not as exposed to some critical thinking. It is a little puzzling.”
ITEM: There is no significant difference between men

and women and belief in Roswell.
Although survey results show that men have more knowledge

about Roswell than women, there is virtually no statistical difference
in belief in Roswell. Men believe that Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it at a rate of 33.6 percent, while 31.6 percent of women
hold this belief, a difference of 2 points, which is statistically
insignificant.
Men believe that Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all at
29.2 percent; women at 26.3, only a slightly higher difference of 2.9
points. Women, therefore, have a slightly higher percentage of
believing Roswell is only “possible”, 42 percent compared to men at
37 percent.
In an interesting separate finding, 42 percent of men either
know more than average or very much about Roswell, while only
21.2 percent of women know as much about Roswell. So even
though men’s knowledge of Roswell is double that of women’s,

belief in Roswell is the same.
(Two questions on the survey asked if respondents are medical
doctors, lawyers, or members of the clergy. The responses provided
such low numbers that any statistical analysis would be invalid.)
Gender
33.6% 31.6%
Believe in Roswell
29.2% 26.3%
Men Women
Geographic Demographics
ITEM: People born in the United States are more likely
to believe in Roswell than those not born in the United States.
ITEM: People not born in the United States are more

likely to disbelieve Roswell than those born in the United
States.
Geographic Demographics 69
Born in or Outside the United States
25.0%
32.7%
Believe in Roswell
35.0%
27.3%
Born in the Born Outside

United the United
States States
Respondents were asked two separate questions regarding

birth. First, they were asked whether or not they were born in the
United States. If not, respondents were asked to specify in what
country or continent they were born. While the number of responses
to the question of place of birth outside the United States was not high
enough for each individual country or continent to be analyzed
separately, and therefore was not statistically valid, the aggregate
total of those born anywhere in the world other than the United
States was high enough to form a valid conclusion by counting them
together as “not born in the United States.”
94.3 percent of all respondents to this survey were born in the
United States because this survey was for the most part geared
toward Americans, as Roswell was an event that took place in the
United States and about which more Americans would know than
non-Americans. To the extent that place of birth has any bearing on
one’s belief in Roswell, the results are nevertheless interesting. 32.7

percent of those born in the United States believe that Roswell is
very likely or are certain of it, which is almost identical to the entire
survey response to that question. Those not born in the United States
do not, therefore, skew the overall results because their number is
so small. Of those not born in the United States, 25 percent believe
Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. This is a drop of 7 points,
probably attributable to general lack of knowledge about the case.
Of those born in the United States, 27.3 percent believe
Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. 35 percent of those not
born in the United States believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen
at all. So the difference is consistent regarding both belief and
disbelief in Roswell. The results are still somewhat ambiguous
because (since the survey was chiefly aimed at Americans) the
survey question does not distinguish between those “not born in the
United States” who came here as infants and were raised here and
those who came in their 20’s. So the results may be less significant
than they first appear. Nevertheless, the results do show a differ-
ence in responses.
Once again, the indication is that simple lack of knowledge and
interest in what was an American event results in less of a belief in
the alien version.
ITEM: People not raised in the United States are less

likely to believe in Roswell than people raised in the United
States.
ITEM: For those raised in the United States, there is no

greatly discernible difference in belief in Roswell among the
different geographic areas of the country.
There is certainly a distinction between being raised in America

and being born here. Where a person was raised is often a far greater
indicator of influence on a person’s belief system than where a
person was born or where a person currently resides. Nevertheless,
it is significant that those not raised in the United States responded

in the same manner as those not born in the United States, buttressing
the results to the question about birth. Just as those not born in the
United States had the lowest rate of believing in Roswell at 25
percent, those not raised in the United States believe in Roswell at
26.3 percent. This is a similar drop of 9 points, since those raised in
the United States believe in Roswell at a 34 percent rate. This shows
a consistency across these separate questions.
People not raised in the United States disbelieve Roswell at a
percentage of 42.1, also a higher rate than those raised in the United
States, who disbelieve Roswell at a 28.5 percent rate. This is also
similar to the response of those not born in the United States.
Respondents were asked in what section of the United States
they were raised. There was no greatly discernible difference in
belief in Roswell among the different geographic areas in the United
Raised in or Outside the United States
26.3%
34.0%
Believe in Roswell
42.1%
28.5%
Raised in Raised
the United Outside the
States United States
Geographic Section of the U.S.
23.5%
36.9% 35.1% 32.8%

35.3% 30.1% 29.2%
38.4%
31.5%
29.6% 32.2%
24.1% 28.3% 26.3%
15.3%
North West Midwest Southwest South Northwest Northeast

Central Coast
Believe in Roswell
States. The results were as follows for those who believe Roswell
is very likely or are certain of it: Northeast, 29.2; Northwest, 30.1;
South, 32.8; Southwest, 35.1; Midwest, 35.3; North central, 38.4;
West coast, 36.9.
So the 26.3 percent belief of those not raised in the United
States is lower than for those raised in the United States, and is lower
than each of the seven individual geographic areas of the country.
This is probably due to simple disinterest and lack of knowledge
about the fantastic story of Roswell. The importance of this question
is that the results confirm the results of the question about place of
birth.
Tom Carey attributes the finding to simple lack of interest. “I
found that odd because of so many cases in other countries. Maybe
they just haven’t heard of Roswell. That’s why I’m less interested
in Rendlesham Forest [a British UFO case],” he says.
Stanton Friedman, on the other hand, has spoken about
Roswell in different countries and is uncertain about the finding. He
says, “I don’t know what to make of that. I haven’t had any greater
resistance to my views overseas.”
ITEM: People who live in small towns are more likely to

believe in Roswell than those who reside in cities or suburbs.
Interestingly, people who live in small towns are more likely to

believe in Roswell than those who reside in cities or suburbs. Of
those who live in small towns, 39.8 percent believe that Roswell is
very likely or are certain of it. People who live in cities believe
Roswell is very likely or are certain of it at a rate of 32 percent.
People who live in suburbs came in a close third, with 29.1 percent
believing that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it.
This is a fascinating finding because there are small towns all
over America, so it cannot be pinpointed to a geographic location.
Moreover, there was no real variance in belief in Roswell by
geography. And the eight point difference is substantial. Cities and
suburbs are separated by only two points, but cities and suburbs are
separated from small towns by eight points and eleven points
respectively.
What makes a small town resident more likely to believe in
Roswell? Taken by itself, the answer is a mystery. It may be, of
course, that small town residents simply have more of the qualities
that incline people to believe in Roswell and that have been revealed
through other questions in this survey. It could be that small town
residents are more religious, have fewer college degrees, and are
more interested in topics such as UFO’s and extraterrestrials.
Michael Shermer speculates, stating, “It makes me wonder if
it is it the red state-blue state thing. It might be educated elite liberals
Small Towns, Cities and Suburbs
39.8% 32.0% 29.1%
27.7% 29.8%
23.4%
Small Cities Suburbs

Towns
Believe in Roswell
living in cities and the rural bumpkins living out in the sticks, which
would then be correlated with education.”
Stanton Friedman thinks it is more about the nature of small
town people. “I have found that people from small towns know
people in their community,” he says. “I think they are more alert to
other people, more trusting and would be much more likely to
sympathize with something that happened near a place like Roswell,
which at the time had about only 25,000 people. They don’t have the
cynicism. Also, they probably have more people who are willing to
talk about their experiences.”
Tom Carey thinks that small town residents simply “tend to be
more conservative.”
Personal Belief System 75
Personal Belief System

ITEM: The more religious one is, the more one is likely
to believe in Roswell.
How religious belief relates to Roswell is one of the more

interesting items in this analysis. Although on the surface religious
belief would seem to be unrelated to a belief in whether or not aliens
landed in Roswell, the fact is that atheists and agnostics tend to be
skeptical about anything that is fantastic, that they cannot view in the
natural world, or for which there is not actual physical proof. Most
of them tend to be naturalists and therefore skeptics about anything
paranormal. While aliens at Roswell is not technically paranormal,
it would make sense that the more one believes in the supernatural,
of which religion is a part, the more inclined one would be to believe
in Roswell.
And indeed, more than half of all atheists – 55.1 percent –
believe it is unlikely that Roswell happened or did not happen at all.
Only 25.8 percent of atheists believe Roswell is possible. Less than
one in five atheists – 18.9 percent – believe that Roswell is likely to
have happened or are certain of it.
Agnostics, who are not as hard-line as atheists, believe at a
30.5 percent rate that Roswell is either unlikely or did not happen at
all. It makes sense, therefore, that 43.6 percent of agnostics believe
Roswell is possible. Clearly, moving from atheist to agnostic, the rate
of disbelief in Roswell lessens and the rate of those who think it
possible rises. 25.7 percent of agnostics believe that Roswell is likely
or are certain of it, a predictable rise from the atheist view.
Moving along toward becoming more religious, of those
respondents who identify themselves as “believer, but not very
religious,” 21.5 percent believe that Roswell did not happen at all or
is unlikely. This is a drop of 34 points from atheists and a drop of 9
points from agnostics. So the trend continues that the more religious,
the more one believes in Roswell. Of the “believer, but not very
religious” category, 41.8 percent think Roswell is possible, virtually
the same number as agnostics, so the “possible” category continues

to be a refuge for the unsure. However, the significant differences
are in the categories that more pin people down to a belief or
disbelief, and the trend with religious belief continues to hold. 36.6
percent of the “believer, but not very religious” people believe that
Roswell is either very likely or are certain of it. This is an 18 point
jump from atheists and an 11 point jump from agnostics.
Moving upward in degree of religiousness, of those who are
“somewhat religious,” 20.3 percent believe that Roswell is either
unlikely or did not happen at all. Again, this is a drop in disbelievers
of 35 points from atheists and 10 points from agnostics. It is virtually
identical to the “believer, but not very religious” category. 44.8
percent of the “somewhat religious” group believes Roswell is
possible, while 34.8 percent believe that Roswell is likely or are
certain of it.
The two groups – “believer, but not very religious” and
“somewhat religious” have almost identical numbers, very probably
because the two categories are so similar that people could have put
themselves comfortably in either one.
But the final category, the “very religious,” continues the trend
of the more religious, the more likely to believe in Roswell. 39.3
percent of the “very religious” believe that Roswell is likely or are
certain of it. This is the highest percentage of any group, albeit only
3-4 points higher than the previous two categories. Nevertheless, the
trend does indeed continue. Interestingly, the trend deviates some-
what in that the very religious believe at a rate of 28 percent that
Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all, which is actually an 8 point
rise from the previous two categories. 32.6 percent of the “very
religious” believe Roswell is possible, which is only 7 points different
from atheists. What that curious number shows is that the “possible”
category in this instance once again serves as a haven for the unsure.
The trend clearly shows that the more certain categories are where
the clear trends are made.
It does appear from these results that religious belief to any
degree does affect the likelihood of belief in Roswell, as opposed to
an atheist or agnostic outlook. It is significant that of the five
Religious Beliefs
18.9%
25.7% 39.3%
36.6%
34.8%
55.1%
30.5%
28.0%
21.5% 20.3%
Atheists Agnostics Believer, But Somewhat Very

Not Very Religious Religious
Religious
Believe in Roswell
categories of religious belief, the trend is upward in that the degree

of religiousness moves with degree of belief in Roswell.
Stanton Friedman has harsh words for some atheists. He says,
“The key is that word ‘believe.’ I’m convinced that Roswell
happened based on the evidence, not on any belief system. Atheists
who insist that they’re not going to believe in anything, it would be
consistent that they don’t believe in Roswell. It’s the Shermer thing
– ‘show me a body.’ I’ve never seen a neutron or a gamma ray, but
I believe in them. There are different kinds of science. After all, I
can’t produce an eclipse.”
Obviously, Tom Carey agrees, stating, “Atheists don’t believe
in anything that they can’t hold in their hands and smell. But I found
that finding interesting because my a priori belief was that the more
religious a person is the less likely they would believe in Roswell.”
ITEM: A person who believes in an afterlife is two and

a half times as likely to believe in Roswell as a person who
does not believe in an afterlife.
ITEM: A person who does not believe in an afterlife is

two and a half times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than a
person who believes in an afterlife.
While belief in an afterlife and belief in a personal God are very

similar – and usually adherence to one means adherence to the other
– the questions were asked separately. Conventional wisdom
dictates that non-believers in an afterlife or a personal God are
generally skeptics and would be more inclined to disbelieve some-
thing as fantastic as Roswell, and indeed survey results show that the
conventional wisdom is valid, and strikingly so.
While 39.2 percent of those who believe in an afterlife believe
that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it, only 16 percent of those
who do not believe in an afterlife believe Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it. What this means is that a person who believes in an
afterlife is two and a half times as likely to believe in Roswell as a
person who does not believe in an afterlife.
In an even more striking contrast, 20.9 percent of those who
believe in an afterlife think that Roswell is unlikely or did not happen
at all. But 51.3 percent of those who do not believe in an afterlife
believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. That means those
who do not believe in an afterlife are more than two and a half times
more likely to disbelieve Roswell than those who believe in an
afterlife.
Another striking finding from these numbers is that a person
who believes in an afterlife is twice as likely to believe Roswell as
to disbelieve Roswell (39.2 to 20.9 percent).
Moreover, a person who does not believe in an afterlife is more

than three times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as to believe Roswell
(51.3 to 16 percent).
Those who answered “unsure” about an afterlife split evenly
on the Roswell question. 26.8 percent believe Roswell is very likely
or are certain of it, while 29.3 percent think Roswell is unlikely or did
not happen at all.
Once again, those who answered that Roswell was only
“possible” occupy the middle ground. 39.7 percent of those who
believe in an afterlife answered “possible” to the Roswell question;
32.6 of those who do not believe in an afterlife believe Roswell is only
Belief in an Afterlife
16.0%
26.8%
39.2%
51.3%
29.3%
20.9%
Believe in Do Not Unsure About

an Afterlife Believe in an an Afterlife
Afterlife
Believe in Roswell

“possible”; and 43.7 of those unsure about an afterlife answered

“possible” to the Roswell question.
Joe Nickell thinks the finding makes sense. “I think believers
in an afterlife are apt to be motivated by appeals to their emotions.
If I tell someone that I’m talking to their dead mother, you really can
bypass people’s critical thinking and go right to their heart. They can
have tears running down their cheeks because they are accepting it
on an emotional level.” Stanton Friedman agrees, “The believer
mentality allows for things that you can’t prove, things that you can’t
get your mitts on. The finding makes sense to me.”
ITEM: A person who does not believe in a personal God

is twice as likely to not believe in Roswell as to believe in
Roswell.
ITEM: Belief in a personal God makes someone sub-

stantially more likely to believe in Roswell than to disbelieve
Roswell. Someone who believes in a personal God is also
much more likely than a disbeliever in God to believe in
Roswell.
The trend basically holds when respondents are asked if they

believe in a personal God. Of those who do believe in a personal God,
35.4 percent believe that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it.
Those who do not believe in a personal God believe that Roswell is
very likely or are certain of it at a 22.2 percentage, a drop of 13 points
from those who do believe in a personal God.
Of those who believe in a personal God, 23.8 percent believe
that Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. Of those who do not
believe in a personal God, 41.3 percent believe Roswell is unlikely or
did not happen at all.
So a person who does not believe in a personal God is twice as
likely to not believe in Roswell as to believe in Roswell.
Those who are “unsure” about a personal God believe Roswell
at a 34.7 percent rate, disbelieve Roswell at 24.2 percent, and think
Belief in a Personal God
22.2%
35.4% 34.7%
41.3%
23.8% 24.2%
Believe in Do Not Unsure About

a Personal Believe in a a Personal
God Personal God God
Believe in Roswell
Roswell is only “possible” at 40.9 percent.

Those who believe in a personal God believe Roswell is only
“possible” at 40.7 percent, and those who do not believe in a personal
God believe that Roswell is “possible” at 36.3 percent.
The contrast between believers and disbelievers in a personal
God as their beliefs relate to Roswell is as striking as the analysis of
those who believe in an afterlife. There seems to be one logical
explanation for this, that people who are inclined to believe in the
supernatural (God and an afterlife) are simply more likely to believe
in something for which there is no definitive proof and which requires
a streak of faith. Disbelievers in the supernatural are usually
consistent in not believing something for which there is not tangible
and definitive evidence.
ITEM: Those who attend religious services regularly

are the least likely to believe in Roswell, but the degree to
which someone is religious is a much better distinguisher of
someone’s level of belief in Roswell than attendance at
religious services.
Attendance at religious services and the frequency of atten-

dance shows a mixed result as an indicator of one’s level of belief
in Roswell.
This is the case because those who attend religious services
regularly have the lowest rate of belief in Roswell. Clearly, there are
many self-described members of religious groups or spiritual people
who simply do not attend religious services.
Of those who attend religious services regularly, 23.4 percent
believe Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. Those who attend
regularly also have the highest rate of disbelief in Roswell, with 39.3
percent believing Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. So
considering the question of which religion one belongs to and this
question of service attendance, it may be that a believing Catholic
who does not attend services is the most likely to believe in Roswell.
Those who answered that they attend religious services
“sometimes” have the highest rate of belief in Roswell at 39.7
percent. They also have the lowest rate of disbelief in Roswell at
19.3 percent. It is a very strange finding that regular religious service
attendees believe in Roswell the least, and “sometimes” attendees
believe in Roswell the most.
Of those who attend religious services “seldom,” 33 percent
believe that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. 22 percent of
“seldom” attendees believe Roswell is unlikely or do not believe it at
all.
Likewise, those who answered “never or almost never” to
their frequency of attending religious services believe in Roswell at
a 31.7 percent rate. They believe Roswell is unlikely or did not
happen all at a 30.3 percent rate.
So very strangely, with regards to belief in Roswell, those who

attend religious services “seldom” or “never or almost never” fall in
between the highest group (“regularly”) and the lowest group
(“sometimes”).
While on the surface this may seem to somewhat buck the
trend of atheists and agnostics being the least likely to believe in
Roswell, there a few points that can be made. First, despite America
being a very religious country compared to the rest of the industri-
alized world, attendance at religious services for many people is not
a defining characteristic of being “religious” or spiritual. Clearly by
the responses to this survey, there is an enormous cross-section of
people who claim to be religious or to belong to a specific religion yet
Attend Religious Services
23.4%
31.7%
39.7% 33.0%
39.3%
30.3%
19.3% 22.0%
Regularly Sometimes Seldom Never or

Attend Attend Attend Almost
Never Attend
Believe in Roswell

do not attend services.

Second, those who answered “never or almost never” to this
survey question understood that that question was not intended as an
absolute reflection on their religiousness or spirituality. Also, the
answer “never or almost never” was the most common answer
given overall (43.7 percent – almost half of all respondents). Yet on
the separate question, 70 percent of all respondents said they were
at minimum “believers.” Therefore, the trend solidly shows that
atheists and agnostics are the least likely to believe in Roswell,
whether believers attend religious services or not. It is just as clear
that the more religious one is, the more one is likely to believe in
Roswell.
Moreover, the fact that the “sometimes” attendees are the
most likely believers in Roswell seems to negate that more regular
attendees are the least likely to believe.
If the four groups are combined (“regularly” and “sometimes”
in one group, and “seldom” and “never or almost never” in another
group) the results seem to even out. The attendee group believes in
Roswell at 32.8 percent. The non-attendee group believes in
Roswell at 32.2 percent, a statistical tie.
The best conclusion to be reached regarding the results of this
question is that attendance at religious services does not indicate for
many people how religious they are, even though regular attendees
at religious services are the least likely to believe in Roswell. In other
words, attendance at religious services is not a particularly definitive
distinguisher of the level of belief in Roswell. The degree to which
someone is religious is a much more reliable distinguisher.
ITEM: The more superstitious a person is, the more

ITEM: Someone who is very superstitious is more than

twice as likely to believe in Roswell as someone who is not
superstitious at all.
ITEM: Someone who is not superstitious at all is more

than three times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as someone
who is very superstitious and twice as likely to disbelieve
Roswell as someone who is only somewhat superstitious.
In keeping with the theme that people who are more inclined
to believe things on faith or who believe in the supernatural or
paranormal are more likely to believe in Roswell than naturalists, it
follows that superstitious people are much more inclined to believe
in Roswell than those who are not superstitious. This continues to be
a fascinating finding because the Roswell incident (if it happened) is
not actually a case of the paranormal or supernatural. Nevertheless,
it does involve believing in something so fantastic, and without
definitive tangible proof, that the finding is consistent with other
findings in this analysis.
Of those who describe themselves as “very much” supersti-
tious, an astounding 60.5 percent believe Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it. Only 10.5 percent believe that Roswell is unlikely or did
not happen at all.
Of those who are “somewhat” superstitious, there is a drop of
25 points in belief in Roswell. 34.8 percent believe Roswell is very
likely or are certain of it. 19 percent believe Roswell is unlikely or did
not happen at all.
Of those who answered that they are “not at all” superstitious,
28.9 percent believe that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it.
36.3 percent believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all.
So once again there is a definite sliding scale in that the degree
one believes in Roswell rises with the degree one is superstitious.
Someone who is “very much” superstitious is more than twice
as likely to believe in Roswell as someone who is “not at all”
superstitious. And someone who is “not at all” superstitious is more
than three times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as someone who is
“very much” superstitious. Although the difference in belief in
Roswell is 6 points between those who are “somewhat” supersti-
tious and those who are “not at all,” the difference between those
two groups is much wider regarding disbelief in Roswell, a differ-
ence of 17 points. So those who are “not at all” superstitious are

almost twice as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who are
“somewhat” superstitious.
Joe Nickell’s take on this finding is people’s propensity to
believe in fantastic things. He says, “Whether you are talking about
New Agers, Bigfooters, flying saucers, ghosts and psychic phenom-
ena, crop circles, ancient astronauts theories, fortune telling, astrol-
ogy, or lake monsters. If you’re inclined to believe a far out idea you
may be inclined to believe another far out idea.”
Superstition
28.9%
60.5%
34.8%
36.3%
19.0%
10.5%
Very Much Somewhat Not at All

Superstitious Superstitious Superstitious
Believe in Roswell

ITEM: The more a person believes in the existence of

psychic powers, the more likely the person will believe in
Roswell.
ITEM: People who believe very much in the existence

of psychic powers are seven times as likely to believe in
Roswell as people who do not believe in psychic powers at all
and are five and a half times as likely to believe in Roswell as
to disbelieve Roswell.
ITEM: People who do not believe in psychic powers at

all are seven times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those
who believe very much in psychic powers and eight and a half
times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than to believe
Roswell.
There is a remarkably high difference in belief in Roswell

among the varying degrees of belief in the existence of psychic
powers. The more likely someone believes in psychic powers, the
more likely the person will believe in Roswell. In fact, the differences
in belief in Roswell are substantial as the degree in belief in psychic
powers rises.
Respondents were asked if they believed in the existence of
psychic powers. Those who answered “yes, very much” were far
and away the biggest believers in Roswell, with 55.5 percent
believing Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. Only 10.1 percent
believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. So people who
believe very much in the existence of psychic powers are five and
a half times as likely to believe in Roswell as to disbelieve Roswell.
The next group was those who believed in psychic powers “in
a small number of people.” Of that group, 36.7 percent believe that
Roswell is very likely or are certain of it, a 19 point drop from those
who believe very much in psychic powers, but still 17 points higher
than those who are “unsure” about the existence of psychic powers.
Of those who believe in psychic powers in a small number of people,
17.5 percent believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. So
the decrease in belief in psychic powers coincides with the decrease

in belief in Roswell. The “small number of people” group is also twice
as likely to believe in Roswell as to disbelieve in Roswell.
Those who believe in psychic powers in a small number of
people are also four and a half times as likely to believe in Roswell
as those who do not believe in psychic powers at all, and twice as
likely to believe in Roswell as those who are unsure about the
existence of psychic powers.
The next group consists of those who answered that they are
“unsure” about the existence of psychic powers. Of those, 19
percent believe Roswell is very likely or are certain of it, while 34.7
percent believe that Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. The
trend continues. Those who are unsure about the existence of
psychic powers are twice as likely to believe in Roswell as those who
do not believe in psychic powers at all.
The group with the lowest level of belief in Roswell is the group
which answered that they “not at all” believe in psychic powers. Of
those, only 8 percent believe Roswell likely or are certain of it. But
68.3 percent believe Roswell unlikely or did not happen at all.
Therefore, people who do not believe in psychic powers at all
are eight and a half times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than to
believe Roswell. They are seven times as likely to disbelieve Roswell
as those who believe very much in psychic powers, four times as
likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who believe in psychic powers
in a small number of people, and twice as likely to disbelieve Roswell
as people who are unsure about psychic powers.
What is remarkable about the findings of this question is that
the four different degrees to which a person believes in psychic
powers are as separated from each other as the degrees to which
the same people believe in Roswell. And again, this is a clear
indication that those who do not believe in things paranormal or
supernatural are far less likely to believe in something as fantastic as
Roswell. And of course the findings also show that those who most
confidently believe in something as extrasensory as psychic powers
are also the most likely to believe in something like Roswell.
Both the skeptics and Roswell believers agree on the reasoning
Belief in Psychic Powers
8.0%
19.0%
55.5% 68.3%
36.7%
34.7%
17.5%
10.1%
Very Much Believe in Unsure About Do Not At All
Believe in Psychic Existence of Believe in
Psychic Powers in a Psychic Psychic
Powers Small Powers Powers
Number of
People
Believe in Roswell
for this finding. Stanton Friedman states, “I was struck by that finding
because with psychic powers you don’t have something to hold onto.
There is a mentality that if you don’t have a piece of something, there
can’t be anything there. Psychic powers are elusive. It opens your
mind, makes you more open to stuff that can’t be cut and dried, sliced
and diced in a laboratory.”
Tom Carey concurs. “This finding goes along with belief in

extraterrestrials and ESP; it opens the window to believe in extra-
sensory, out of the ordinary things.”
Michael Shermer references what he terms “patternicity,”
which he defines as “the tendency to find meaningful patterns in
meaningless noise.” He elaborates on patternicity by asking, “Why
do people see faces in nature, interpret window stains as human
figures, hear voices in random sounds generated by electronic
devices or find conspiracies in the daily news? Patternicity applies
not only to conspiracy theorists but to the paranormal, ESP, psychic
power – beliefs all lumped under the category more likely to believe
everything versus less likely to believe everything.”
ITEM: Those who believe in the spirits of deceased

loved ones are more than three times as likely to believe in
Roswell as to disbelieve it.
ITEM: Those who believe in the spirits of deceased

loved ones are more than three times as likely to believe in
Roswell as those who do not believe in the spirits, and more
than twice as likely to believe Roswell as those who are
“unsure” about the spirits.
ITEM: Those who do not believe in the spirits of

deceased loved ones are four and a half times as likely to
disbelieve Roswell as to believe in Roswell, and are five
times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than those who
believe in the spirits. They are more than twice as likely to
disbelieve Roswell as those who are unsure about the spirits.
To the casual observer, a belief in the spirits of deceased loved

ones has no relation whatsoever to the belief that aliens landed at
Roswell. Why is a person who believes in one so much likelier to
believe in the other? But as the results of this survey have shown,
there is a definite relationship between the two. As has been shown
on the questions of religious belief and superstition, people who are

inclined to believe things that have to do with the paranormal or
supernatural – things that cannot be definitely proven through
naturalist means and which people cannot quantify in a tangible way
– are also more inclined to believe in something as incredible as
space aliens landing at Roswell. This trend continues on this question
of spirits.
Respondents were asked if they believe in the existence of the
spirits of deceased loved ones. Of those who answered yes, 45.7
percent believe that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it, while
only 12.7 percent believe that Roswell is unlikely or did not happen
at all. 41.4 percent believe Roswell is “possible.” So those who
believe in the spirits are more than three times as likely to believe in
Roswell as to disbelieve it.
Of those who answered no, they did not believe in the spirits
of deceased loved ones, 14.8 percent believe that Roswell is very
likely or are certain of it. This is a drop of 30 points from those who
do believe in the spirits of deceased loved ones. Moreover, those
who believe in the spirits are more than three times as likely to believe
in Roswell as those who do not believe in the spirits.
Of those who do not believe in the spirits, 63.1 percent believe
that Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. That means that those
who do not believe in the spirits are four and a half times as likely to
disbelieve Roswell as to believe in Roswell, and are five times more
likely to disbelieve Roswell than those who believe in the spirits. 22
percent of those who do not believe in the spirits believe Roswell is
“possible.”
Of those who say they are unsure about the existence of the
spirits of deceased loved ones, 20.5 percent believe that Roswell is
very likely or are certain of it, while 30.2 percent believe Roswell is
unlikely or did not happen at all. 49.1 percent of those unsure about
the spirits believe Roswell is “possible.”
So those who believe in the spirits of deceased loved ones are
still more than two times as likely to believe Roswell as those who
are “unsure” about the spirits. Those who are unsure about the spirits
Belief in Spirits of Deceased Loved Ones
14.8%
20.5%
45.7% 63.1%
30.2%
12.7%
Believe in Unsure About Do Not

Spirits of Spirits of Believe in
Deceased Deceased Spirits of
Loved Ones Loved Ones Deceased
Loved Ones
Believe in Roswell
are two and a half times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who
do believe in the spirits. Yet those who do not believe in the spirits
are more than twice as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who are
unsure about the spirits.
ITEM: Those who believe in the paranormal are almost

four times as likely to believe Roswell as to disbelieve
Roswell. They are four and a half times more likely to believe
in Roswell than those who do not believe in the paranormal.
They are two and a half times as likely to believe in Roswell
as those who are unsure about the paranormal.
ITEM: Those who do not believe in the paranormal are

seven times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than to believe
Roswell. They are almost six times more likely to disbelieve
Roswell than those who believe in the paranormal, and are
more than twice as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who
are unsure about the paranormal.
Respondents were asked if they believe in the paranormal

(telepathy, mediumship, precognition, clairvoyance) and the results
as they relate to belief in Roswell follow the same trend as the other
survey questions that dealt with supernatural or extrasensory mat-
ters. Not only does belief in Roswell rise when belief in the
paranormal rises, but the degree of belief in one corresponds with
degree in the other. Again, this is certainly attributable to the
inclination of some people to believe on faith that which they cannot
see or for which there is no tangible evidence.
Of those who believe in the paranormal, 45.8 percent believe
Roswell is very likely or are certain of it, while only 12 .4 percent
believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. So those who
believe in the paranormal are almost four times as likely to believe
Roswell as to disbelieve Roswell. 41.6 percent of those who believe
in the paranormal believe Roswell is “possible.”
Of those who do not believe in the paranormal, only 10.6
percent believe Roswell is very likely or are certain of it and a
whopping 70.9 percent believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen
at all. 18.4 percent of those who do not believe in the paranormal
believe Roswell is “possible.”
So those who do not believe in the paranormal are seven times
more likely to disbelieve Roswell than to believe Roswell. They are

almost six times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than those who
believe in the paranormal. And those who believe in the paranormal
are four and a half times more likely to believe in Roswell than those
who do not believe in the paranormal.
Of those who are unsure about the paranormal, 18.7 percent
believe Roswell is very likely or are certain of it, while 32.5 percent
Belief in the Paranormal
10.6%
18.7% 70.9%
45.8%
32.5%
12.4%
Believe in the Unsure Do Not

Paranormal About the Believe in the
Paranormal Paranormal
Believe in Roswell

Outer Space and Extraterrestrials 95
believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. 48.7 percent of

those who are unsure about the paranormal believe Roswell is
“possible.”
So those who believe in the paranormal are two and a half times
as likely to believe in Roswell as those who are unsure of the
paranormal. Those who do not believe in the paranormal are more
than twice as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who are unsure
about the paranormal.
Outer Space and

Extraterrestrials
ITEM: Belief in intelligent life elsewhere in the uni-
verse corresponds strongly to belief in Roswell. A person
who believes in intelligent life elsewhere in the universe is 34
times more likely to believe in Roswell than someone who
doubts intelligent life is out there.
ITEM: Those who believe strongly that there is intelli-

gent life elsewhere in the universe are five times as likely to
believe that aliens landed at Roswell as those who merely
believe intelligent life in the universe is “possible.”
ITEM: Only one in seven people who strongly believes

that that there is intelligent life elsewhere in the universe
believes that aliens did not land at Roswell.
One of the questions that would appear to have an obvious

correlation with whether or not one believes in Roswell is whether
or not one believes in the possibility of intelligent life somewhere else
in the universe. Plainly, there are many people who believe in
intelligent life in the universe but do not specifically believe in
Roswell. Logically, however, if someone does not believe that there
is intelligent life out there, by definition one could not believe in

Roswell at all. So how much does belief in intelligent life in the
universe correspond to belief in Roswell?
Of those who believe it is very likely or are certain that there
is intelligent life elsewhere in the universe, 43.4 percent also believe
that it is very likely or certain that there were aliens at Roswell.
Likewise, of those who believe it is very likely or certain that
intelligent life is out there, another 39.9 percent believe Roswell is at
least possible. So overall, 83.3 percent of those who believe it likely
or are certain that intelligent life is out there also believe that Roswell
is at least possible. Only 15.2 percent (one in seven) of those who
believe that it is likely or are certain that intelligent life is out there
believe Roswell is either unlikely to have happened or did not happen
at all.
This 15.2 percent is a surprising finding. It is no surprise that
68 percent of all respondents believe that there is intelligent life out
there, but it is surprising that of all those respondents who feel that
way, only 15.2 percent do not believe in Roswell. It is entirely
possible that far more people who believe generally in intelligent life
in the universe would doubt Roswell on the specific merits of that
case. So the most significant finding with regard to this question is
that a strong belief in intelligent life in the universe corresponds with
a very high percentage of belief that Roswell is at least possible and
a very low belief that Roswell didn’t happen.
Of those who only believe that it is “possible” that intelligent life
is out there (but are not sure of it) the number of believers in Roswell
drops substantially, to only 8.3 percent. A full 43.8 percent of those
who believe that intelligent life out there is only “possible” do not
believe in Roswell. This is another interesting finding. What this
shows is that only a strong belief in extraterrestrial intelligence
corresponds to belief in Roswell. Merely thinking it possible that
there is extraterrestrial intelligence does not translate into belief in
Roswell.
Of those who think it only possible that intelligent life is out
there, 47.7 percent also believe that Roswell is only possible (but are
Intelligent Life Elsewhere in the Universe

2.5%
8.3%
86.0%
43.4%
43.8%
15.2%
Believein Believe it Do Not Believe in

Intelligent Life "possible" that Intelligent Life
Elsewhere in the there is Intelligent Elsewhere in the
Universe Life Elsewhere in Universe
the Universe
Believe in Roswell
not sure of it).

Of those who do not believe that intelligent life is out there or
think it unlikely, only 2.5 percent believe that Roswell is likely or are
certain of it, while 86 percent of those who do not believe in intelligent

life believe Roswell unlikely or did not happen at all. So a person who
believes in intelligent life elsewhere in the universe is 34 times more
likely to believe in Roswell than someone who doubts intelligent life
is out there. This finding makes perfect sense, unlike the more
interesting finding that only one in seven who believes in intelligent
life in the universe disbelieves Roswell.
An interesting fact is that skeptic Michael Shermer falls into
the one-in-seven category of people who believe in intelligent life in
the universe but do not believe Roswell. Tom Carey comments on
this narrow group, stating, “Most people, even Carl Sagan, allow for
other life in the universe. Most intelligent people now believe there
is other life. [Shermer’s view] is the professional skeptical view and
that’s the big divide. Most people that have that particular stance are
people with high profiles.”
Stanton Friedman is also unsurprised at Roswell skeptics who
believe in intelligent life in the universe, saying, “They believe in
intelligent life out there. The list of people in the last hundred years
who believe there’s life out there has gone up steadily.”
Commenting on the astounding finding that people who believe
in the existence of intelligent life in the universe are 34 times more
likely to believe in Roswell than those who doubt there is intelligent
life out there, Joe Nickell says, “It goes to the crux of the situation.
I think the few people who believe in intelligent life in the universe
but don’t believe in Roswell are hypothetical believers, not emotional
believers.”
ITEM: Only a tiny 1.5 percent of people who believe

aliens have visited Earth do not believe aliens visited Roswell.
Two-thirds of those who believe aliens have landed on Earth
also believe aliens landed at Roswell.
There is a difference, of course, between believing that there

is intelligent life elsewhere in the universe and believing that some
intelligent beings have actually visited Earth. Likewise, it is entirely
possible to believe that extraterrestrials have visited Earth, but not at

Roswell. It is interesting to see how those various beliefs correspond
with each other. How all this sorts out is as follows:
Of those who believe it is very likely or are certain that
extraterrestrials have visited Earth, fully two-thirds (67 percent)
believe that it happened at Roswell. Astoundingly, only a tiny 1.5
percent who believe that aliens have landed on Earth do not believe
or think it unlikely that it happened at Roswell. The remaining 31.3
percent who think aliens have landed on Earth believe that Roswell
is at least possible. What jumps out most significantly is that a general
belief that aliens have landed on Earth influences to a large extent
the belief in Roswell.
Moreover, it is surprising that there is not a much bigger cross-
section of respondents who believe in general that aliens have visited
Earth, but reject the Roswell incident on its specific merits. That
clearly is not the case, as only 1.5 percent of that group disbelieves
Roswell.
On the other end of the question, obviously those who do not
believe that aliens have landed on Earth also disbelieve Roswell
(strangely, 2.3 percent of those who said they do not believe aliens
have visited Earth also said they believe in Roswell; 4.7 percent think
Roswell is possible). The remaining 92.9 percent do not believe
Roswell.
Of those who think it unlikely (leaving some room for the
possibility) that aliens have landed on Earth, 2.2 percent believe
Roswell, 77 percent disbelieve Roswell, and 20.6 percent think
Roswell is possible.
Once again, many people are in the middle: of those who think
it “possible” that aliens have landed on Earth, 68.3 percent think it
“possible” that it happened at Roswell. So this two-thirds figure is
consistent – two-thirds of those who think aliens have probably
landed on Earth also think it happened at Roswell; and two-thirds
who think it “possible” that aliens have landed on Earth also think
Roswell is “possible.” 12.1 percent of that group believes Roswell
and 19.4 percent disbelieves Roswell.
Aliens Have Visited Earth

4.7%
20.6% 2.3%
31.3%
2.2%
68.3%
92.9%
77.0%
67.0%
39.3%
12.1%
19.4%
1.5%
BelieveAliens Believe it is Believe it is Do Not Believe
Have Visited Possible that Unlikely that AliensHave
Earth AliensHave AliensHave Visited Earth
Visited Earth Visited Earth
Believe in Roswell
Believe Roswell is "Possible"
ITEM: A person who believes that aliens have con-

tacted humans is ten times more likely to believe in Roswell
than a person who does not believe aliens have contacted
humans.
ITEM: Those who do not believe that aliens have ever

contacted humans are twelve times more likely to disbelieve
Roswell than those who do believe aliens have contacted

humans and twelve times more likely to disbelieve Roswell
than to believe Roswell.
ITEM: A person who believes aliens have contacted

humans is ten times more likely to believe in Roswell than to
disbelieve Roswell.
It is important to ask a variety of survey questions about the

existence of aliens because the different questions serve to allow
someone to hold one belief about aliens but not necessarily another.
For example, it is entirely possible and logical to believe that aliens
landed at Roswell and at the same time believe that aliens in general
(unrelated to Roswell) have never contacted people or the United
Aliens Have Contacted Humans

4.9%
Believe in Roswell
51.4%
63.0%
5.4%
Believe Do Not Believe
Aliens Have Aliens Have
Contacted Contacted
Humans Humans
States government. Conversely, it is also possible and logical for a

person to believe that aliens did not land at Roswell, but at other times
aliens have contacted the government or the person himself. So
disbelieving Roswell specifically does not rule out believing in alien
contact of people or the government at other times.
One of the purposes, therefore, of having a variety of questions
about aliens is to thoroughly explore whether there is indeed a trend
whereby belief in various kinds of activities by aliens corresponds to
belief in Roswell. The conventional wisdom says that there will be
a connection. But the diversity of alien-related questions will serve
to pinpoint which specific beliefs about aliens incline people the most
to belief in Roswell.
As to whether or not respondents believe that aliens have ever
contacted humans, 51.4 percent of those who believe so also believe
that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. Only 4.9 percent of
those who do not believe that aliens have ever contacted humans
believe that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. So despite the
theoretical possibility that someone can hold disparate views about
aliens at the same time, the fact is that the belief that aliens have
contacted humans strongly coincides with the belief in Roswell.
More than half of those who believe aliens have contacted humans
also believe in Roswell. Yet only one in 20 people who believe aliens
have not contacted humans believe in Roswell. So a person is ten
times more likely to believe in Roswell if that person also believes
that aliens have contacted humans at some time.
Of those who believe aliens have contacted humans, only 5.4
percent believe that Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. Of
those who do not believe that aliens have ever contacted humans, 63
percent believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. This result
produces an even greater disparity. It means that those who do not
believe that aliens have ever contacted humans are twelve times
more likely to disbelieve Roswell than those who do believe aliens
have contacted humans.
Another way of demonstrating this trend is to point out that a
person who believes aliens have contacted humans is ten times more
likely to believe in Roswell than to disbelieve Roswell. And a person
who disbelieves that aliens have contacted humans is twelve times

more likely to disbelieve Roswell than to believe Roswell.
43.1 percent of those who believe aliens have contacted
humans believe that Roswell is only “possible.” Of those who do not
believe aliens have contacted humans, 31.9 percent believe Roswell
is only “possible.” So allowing for a middle ground answer such as
“possible” narrows the gap to 12 points. But those who gave “yes or
no” answers to the question of aliens contacting humans provide the
true difference as to how the answer to that question impacts views
on Roswell.
ITEM: Those who believe aliens have contacted the

government are more than four times more likely to believe
in Roswell than those who don’t believe aliens have con-
tacted the government.
ITEM: Those who believe aliens have contacted the

government are 63 times more likely to believe Roswell than
not believe Roswell.
ITEM: Those who do not believe aliens have contacted

the government are three times more likely to disbelieve
Roswell than to believe Roswell.
ITEM: Those who believe aliens have not contacted the

government are 44 times more likely to disbelieve Roswell
than those who do believe aliens have contacted the govern-
ment.
Since the claim at Roswell was that the government was

involved in a cover-up and there was some sort of contact between
aliens and the government, it would indicate that the connection
between belief in Roswell and belief in aliens having ever contacted
the United States government would be even greater than on the
question of whether aliens have ever contacted humans. And
Aliens Have Contacted the

U.S. Government
14.6%
63.1%
Believe in Roswell
44.8% Do Not Believe in Roswell
1.0%
BelieveAliens Do Not Believe
HaveContacted AliensHave
theGovernment Contacted the
Government
indeed, in one respect it is – with those who believe aliens have

contacted the government (not with those who don’t).
Of those who believe that aliens at some point have contacted
the United States government, 63.1 percent believe that Roswell is
very likely or are certain of it. That is even 12 points higher of a belief
in Roswell than the belief in Roswell of those who believe aliens have
contacted humans. A tiny one percent only of those who believe
aliens have contacted the United States government believe that
Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. That one percent figure
is astonishing in that it reveals that the belief in aliens having
contacted the United States government is synonymous with belief
in Roswell. It seems that those respondents are essentially saying the
“contact” they believe in is actually the Roswell contact. The
remaining 35.5 percent of those who believe aliens have contacted
the government believe that Roswell is “possible.”

Of those who believe that aliens have not contacted the
government, 14.6 percent believe that Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it. While this figure is very small, it is actually ten points
higher than the belief in Roswell of those who do not believe that
aliens have contacted humans. Of those who do not believe aliens
have contacted the government, 44.8 percent believe Roswell is
unlikely or did not happen at all. Again, while that figure is high, it is
19 points lower than the disbelief in Roswell of those who do not
believe aliens have contacted humans. The remaining 40.5 percent
of those who do not believe aliens have contacted the government
think Roswell is only “possible.”
So those who believe aliens have contacted the government
are more than four times more likely to believe in Roswell than those
who don’t believe aliens have contacted the government. And those
who believe aliens have contacted the government are a whopping
63 times more likely to believe Roswell than not believe Roswell.
Those who do not believe aliens have contacted the govern-
ment are three times more likely to not believe in Roswell than to
believe in Roswell. And those who believe aliens have not contacted
the government are 44 times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than
those who do believe aliens have contacted the government.
What all of this continues to prove is that a general belief in
aliens corresponds very strongly to belief in Roswell.
“This finding makes sense because they’re dealing with a
‘belief,’” says Joe Nickell. “Science is not a ‘belief’ business.
Science is saying whether or not there is evidence for something.”
ITEM: A person who believes he has had personal

contact with aliens is 13 times more likely to believe in
Roswell than to disbelieve Roswell.
ITEM: Those who believe they have had personal

contact with aliens are two and a half times more likely to
believe Roswell than those who do not believe they have
been contacted by aliens.
ITEM: Those who do not believe they have been

contacted by aliens are almost six times more likely to
disbelieve Roswell than those who do believe they have been
contacted by aliens.
Respondents were asked if they believed that they personally

have had contact with aliens. It is unlikely that any of those who
responded “yes” were claiming that they had contact specifically
with aliens at Roswell, since the event took place in 1947. Neverthe-
less, of those who believed they have had contact with aliens, 72.7
Personal Contact With Aliens
30.3%
72.7%
Believe in Roswell
28.9%
5.4%
Believe I Have Do Not Believe I
HadPersonal HaveHad
Contact With PersonalContact
Aliens With Aliens
percent believe that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. That
same group believes that Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all
at only a 5.4 percent rate. So a person who believes he has had
personal contact with aliens is 13 times more likely to believe in
Roswell than to disbelieve Roswell.
Those who do not believe they have had personal contact with
aliens believe at 30.3 percent that Roswell is very likely or are certain
of it; 28.9 percent believe that Roswell is unlikely or did not happen
at all, almost a statistical tie. So there is no trend of believing or
disbelieving in Roswell for those who do not believe they have been
contacted by aliens.
Obviously, the significant trend is with those who do believe
they have been contacted by aliens. They are two and a half times
more likely to believe Roswell than those who do not believe they
have been contacted by aliens.
Those who do not believe they have been contacted by aliens
are almost six times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than those who
do believe they have been contacted by aliens.
Once again, the trend of general belief in aliens overwhelm-
ingly affects one’s belief in Roswell.
ITEM: A person who knows someone who claims to

have been contacted by aliens is more than three times more
likely to believe in Roswell than to disbelieve Roswell.
ITEM: A person who knows someone who claims to

have been contacted by aliens is substantially more likely to
believe Roswell than someone who does not know such a
person.
ITEM: A person who does not know someone who

claims to have been contacted by aliens is twice as likely to
disbelieve Roswell as someone who does know such a
person.
Knows Someone Who Claims Alien Contact
29.4%
50.6%
Believe in Roswell
29.4%
15.9%
KnowsSomeone Does Not Know

Who Claims to SomeoneWho
HaveBeen Claims to Have
Contacted by Been Contacted by
Aliens Aliens
A question about whether a respondent knows someone

personally who claims to have been contacted by aliens is an
interesting one because it does not necessarily reflect the respondent’s
own beliefs. Someone can totally disbelieve the existence of aliens
altogether yet know someone who claims to have been contacted.
So the answers to this question may reveal simply that people tend
to associate with others who have the same opinions about aliens as
themselves.
In fact, the answers only show significance on the part of those
who know someone who claims to have been contacted by aliens.
Of those who know someone, 50.6 percent believe Roswell is very
likely or are certain of it, while only 15.9 percent of those who know
someone believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all.
Popular Culture 109
Therefore, a person who knows someone who claims to have been

contacted by aliens is more than three times more likely to believe
in Roswell than to disbelieve Roswell.
There is no statistical difference with regard to belief in
Roswell with people who do not personally know someone who has
been contacted by aliens. Of those who do not know such a person,
29.4 percent believe Roswell is likely or are certain of it, and 29.4
percent believe that Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. These
numbers are the same as those concerning people who have not
been contacted by aliens themselves. The movement in increasing
probability of belief in Roswell is with those who know someone who
claims to have been contacted by aliens.
What this question shows is that a person who knows someone
who claims to have been contacted by aliens is substantially more
likely (50.6 percent tot 29.4 percent) to believe Roswell than
someone who does not know such a person. And someone who does
not know a person who claims to have been contacted by aliens is
twice as likely to disbelieve Roswell as someone who does know a
person who claims to have been contacted by aliens.
One other possible reason for this disparity is that the person
whom the respondent knows has sufficiently convinced the respon-
dent of the existence of aliens, thereby increasing the respondent’s
likelihood to believe in Roswell.
Popular Culture
ITEM: Familiarity with the television show “Roswell”
does have an impact on whether or not one believes in
Roswell, but not a significant impact.
Of those who are very familiar with the television show

“Roswell,” 40 percent believe that the Roswell incident is either very
likely to have happened or are certain of it. Another 41.2 percent
think it is possible. So 81.2 percent of those who are very familiar
with the show believe Roswell is at least possible. Only 18.7 percent
of those very familiar with the show believe Roswell to be unlikely

or are certain it did not happen.
Of those who are only somewhat familiar with the show, the
numbers stay consistent. 42.2 percent of those believe Roswell
happened or is very likely to have happened. 37.3 percent of those
somewhat familiar with the show believe that Roswell is possible and
20.3 percent believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. So
there is no distinction between those who are very familiar with the
show and those who are somewhat familiar with the show in terms
of their belief in Roswell.
The numbers decrease only slightly for those who have heard
Familiarity with the TV Show "Roswell"
27.1%
42.2% 32.6%
40.0%
32.0%
27.7%
18.7% 20.3%
Very Somewhat Heard of it Never Heard

Familiar Familiar but Never of it
Watched it
Believe in Roswell

Popular Culture 111
of the show but never watched it. They believe Roswell happened
or think it likely to have happened at a percentage of 32.6. Of those
who have heard of the show but never watched it, 39.5 percent
believe that Roswell is possible. 27.7 percent believe Roswell is
unlikely or are certain it did not happen.
The numbers decrease more for those who have never heard
of the show. They believe that Roswell happened or is likely to have
happened at 27.1 percent. 40.8 percent of those who have never
heard of the show believe that Roswell is possible. 32 percent of
those who have never heard of the show believe that Roswell is
So it appears that one’s familiarity with the television program
“Roswell” does not have a profound effect on whether or not one
believes in Roswell. The number of believers increases only slightly
with one’s knowledge of the show.
Part of the examination of the show’s effect is the chicken-egg
phenomenon. What comes first? Does interest in a science fiction
show such as “Roswell” make you interested in the Roswell incident,
or does a pre-existing interest in the Roswell incident incline you to
watch the show?
ITEM: Devout science fiction fans are no more or less

likely than non-science fiction fans to believe in Roswell.
It is probably assumed that the more someone is a science

fiction fan, the more likely one is to believe in Roswell. This is for
obvious reasons. A fascination with science fiction would probably
incline someone to be more interested in Roswell than a non-science
fiction fan. And interest in Roswell seems to indicate a higher level
of belief in the alien version.
But surprisingly, there is very little difference in belief in
Roswell among varying degrees of interest in science fiction. Those
who describe themselves as “devout” fans of science fiction believe
that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it at 24.4 percent. The
“devout” think Roswell unlikely or did not happen at all at 28.8
Science Fiction Fans
30.0%
24.4% 32.4% 34.7%
33.7%
28.8% 25.5% 25.6%
Devout Very Much a Moderately a Not at all a

Science Science Science Science
Fiction Fan Fiction Fan Fiction Fan Fiction Fan
Believe in Roswell
percent. Of those who describe themselves as “very much” fans of

science fiction, 32.4 percent believe Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it. 25.8 percent of that group think Roswell is unlikely or
did not happen at all. The next group, those who say they are
“moderately” science fiction fans, believe at a 34.7 percent rate that
Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. The moderates also believe
at 25.6 percent that Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all.
Finally, those who say they are “not at all” science fiction fans
believe Roswell is very likely to have happened or are certain of it
at 30 percent, while 33.7 percent believe Roswell is unlikely or did
not happen at all. So the group with the lowest percentage of strong
belief in Roswell is the devout group of science fiction fans – the
Popular Culture 113
opposite of the conventional wisdom.

When adding the percentages of those who think Roswell is at
least possible with “very likely” and “certain” that Roswell hap-
pened, the people who are “not at all” fans of science fiction believe
that Roswell is at least possible at 66.2 percent. The “devout” believe
Roswell is at least possible at 71 percent, a close number between
these two groups at opposite extremes.
So it is either an anomaly or a fact that interest in science fiction
genuinely has no bearing on belief in Roswell. That would explain
that those who are “not at all” fans of science fiction disbelieve
Roswell (33.7 percent) only slightly more than devout fans (28.8
percent). The truth is that whatever the cultural effects on people’s
belief in Roswell, being a fan of science fiction is not a significant
one.
ITEM: Those whose views have been affected by popu-

lar culture are more likely to believe in Roswell than those on
whom culture has had no effect.
ITEM: Those who have not been affected by popular

culture are more than twice as likely to disbelieve Roswell as
those who have been affected by popular culture.
Popular culture has an enormous influence in American

society. Frequently, people are influenced by cultural trends and
often become interested in something because of its cultural influ-
ence. Movies, television and music all greatly influence what people
enjoy and influence what people become interested in. It is perfectly
normal, therefore, that because of all the science fiction movies
about aliens, space travel, etc., that people will become interested in
real-life events that mirror science fiction. Respondents were asked
if popular culture affected their view of the Roswell incident
(whatever that view may be).
Naturally, it is logical to assume that those most influenced by
science fiction movies and the like would more likely be interested
in Roswell and so more likely to believe in the alien version of

Roswell.
Indeed, of those who answered that popular culture got them
“curious and interested,” 36.2 percent believe that Roswell is very
likely or are certain of it. Of those who said that popular culture had
“no effect” on their view of Roswell, 30.8 percent believe that
Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. So those whose views have
been affected by popular culture are more likely to believe in Roswell
than those on whom culture has had no effect.
The greater difference is in the likelihood of disbelieving
Roswell. Those who have been affected by popular culture believe
that Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all at 15.7 percent. But
those who have not been affected by culture believe Roswell is
unlikely or did not happen at all at a rate of 33 percent. So those who
have not been affected by popular culture are more than twice as
likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who have been affected by
popular culture.
This question about cultural influence in general is more in line
with the conventional wisdom than the very specific question about
the television show, “Roswell.” It is no surprise that those whose
opinions of Roswell have been influenced by culture are more likely
to believe in Roswell.
“I expect this finding because popular culture is the only way
most people find out about Roswell,” says Stanton Friedman.
“Television, movies, appearances by guys like me. Part of my
concern is about how the world gets educated. It also depends on
how you define popular culture. It raises the question, where do
people get their information, from television and the internet or from
books? What’s the proportion? That bothers me.”
Tom Carey adds, “There are a lot of shows about Roswell on
TV; people are seeing that.”
On the skeptical side, Michael Shermer asserts, “Roswell is a
pop culture thing. It’s not a scientific question. It’s a pop culture
question. The event itself is a pop culture phenomenon. There was
no Roswell until 1979. UFO literature in the 60’s makes no mention
of Roswell. It was a non-event.
Popular Culture 115
“You also see the effect of the ‘positive feedback loop.’ More
people hearing about it and more people coming forward with their
stories of Roswell. Conflation and confabulation and false memories
– people exaggerating their stories.”
Joe Nickell agrees, stating, “Roswell is an important phenom-
enon on the American scene. Today, if you went into a toy store you
would see the official portrait of the alien is the little big-eyed big-
headed humanoid. When you start seeing the Roswell hoaxes like
the infamous alien autopsy, it was fitting this culturally evolved
concept of what the alien would look like.”
Effect of Popular Culture
30.8%
Believe in Roswell
36.2%
33.0%
15.7%
Popular Popular
Culture Culture Has
Affects View No Effect on
of Roswell View of
Roswell
ITEM: The greater the interest in UFO’s, the higher

the likelihood of belief in Roswell.
ITEM: People who are “very interested” in UFO’s and

extraterrestrials are more than six times as likely to believe
in Roswell as to disbelieve Roswell.
ITEM: Those who are “very interested” in UFO’s are

six times as likely to believe in Roswell as those who are “not
interested.”
It may be conventionally assumed that those who are inter-

ested in the general topic of UFO’s and extraterrestrials are more
likely to believe in Roswell because they are more apt to possess
more knowledge about Roswell than the average person. While
some very knowledgeable people who have a great interest in
UFO’s and extraterrestrials may disbelieve Roswell on the merits of
that specific case, the fact is that the greater the interest in UFO’s,
the higher the likelihood of belief in Roswell.
Of those who say they are “very interested” in the topic of
UFO’s and extraterrestrials, 57.9 percent believe that Roswell is
very likely or are certain of it, while only 8.9 percent believe Roswell
is unlikely or did not happen at all. 33.3 percent of those who are
“very interested” in UFO’s believe Roswell is “possible.”
This is an extraordinarily high figure. 91 percent, therefore, of
those interested in UFO’s believe that Roswell is at least possible.
So people who are “very interested” in UFO’s and extraterrestrials
are more than six times as likely to believe in Roswell as to disbelieve
Roswell.
Of those who say they are “somewhat interested” in the topic
of UFO’s and extraterrestrials, 27.1 percent believe that Roswell is
very likely or are certain of it, while 24.9 percent believe Roswell is
unlikely or did not happen at all. The remaining 47.8 percent of that
group believe that Roswell is “possible.”
So there is an enormous drop of 30 points from those who are
Popular Culture 117
Interest in UFO's
9.6%
65.5%
27.1%
57.9%
24.9%
8.9%
Very Interested Somewhat Not Interested
in UFO's Interested in in UFO's
UFO's
Believe in Roswell
“very interested” in UFO’s and extraterrestrials to those who are

“somewhat interested” in UFO’s regarding belief in Roswell. In
other words, those who are “very interested” in UFO’s are more
than twice as likely to believe in Roswell as those who are
“somewhat interested.” Moreover, those who are “very interested”
in UFO’s are almost three times less likely to disbelieve Roswell than
those who are “somewhat interested.”

These numbers are very significant because they show a huge
drop-off between two groups which both have an interest in UFO’s.
Clearly, there is a wide gulf between being very interested and being
only somewhat interested. Obviously the gulf is even wider from
those who are “not interested.”
Of those who are “not interested” in the topic of UFO’s and
extraterrestrials, only 9.6 percent believe that Roswell is very likely
or are certain of it, while 65.5 percent believe Roswell is unlikely or
did not happen at all. The remaining 24.7 percent of this group believe
Roswell is “possible.” So people who are “not interested” in UFO’s
are more than six times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as they are to
believe Roswell.
Moreover, those who are “very interested” in UFO’s are six
times as likely to believe in Roswell as those who are “not inter-
ested.” Those who are “somewhat interested” in UFO’s are three
times as likely to believe Roswell as those who are “not interested.”
Those who are “not interested” in UFO’s are seven times
more likely to disbelieve Roswell than those who are “very inter-
ested” in UFO’s and two and a half times more likely to disbelieve
Roswell than those who are “somewhat interested.”
These statistical gaps between the three categories of interest
in the topic of UFO’s and extraterrestrials make an overwhelming
case for the fact that the degree of interest in UFO’s greatly
influences one’s propensity to believe that aliens landed at Roswell.
“Everyone in the UFO community believes this or they
wouldn’t be doing it,” says Michael Shermer. “But they are unlike
SETI [Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence] scientists who are
very careful and cautious and nuanced in their thinking because they
are scientists.”
Popular Culture 119
ITEM: UFO organization members are ten times as

likely to believe in Roswell as to disbelieve Roswell.
ITEM: UFO organization members are more than twice

as likely to believe in Roswell as non-members.
Plainly, membership in a UFO organization is an indication of

very deep interest and enjoyment regarding extraterrestrials, close
encounters, and space travel. Obviously, members of the various
MUFON (Mutual UFO Network) organizations will more definitely
know more about Roswell than the average person and will undoubt-
edly be more inclined to believe in Roswell.
UFO Organization Membership
69.7% 30.0%
Believe in Roswell
28.5%
6.9%
UFO Not a UFO
Organization Organization
Member Member
Of UFO organization members, 69.7 percent believe that

Roswell is very likely or are certain of it. Only 6.9 percent of UFO
organization members believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen
at all. That means UFO organization members are ten times as likely
to believe in Roswell as to disbelieve.
Non-members split evenly regarding belief and disbelief in
Roswell, with 30 percent believing Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it and 28.5 percent believing Roswell is unlikely or did not
happen at all.
So UFO organization members are more than twice as likely
to believe as non-members.
This result is in keeping with the trend that those who are more
interested in the subjects of UFO’s, aliens, and space travel are more
ITEM: People who belong to fan clubs of television

programs, whether science fiction or not, are somewhat more
likely to believe in Roswell than people who do not belong to
any fan club.
In keeping with the trend that interest and knowledge of

Roswell translates into higher probability of belief in Roswell, those
who are members of television show fan clubs are more likely to
believe in Roswell than those who are not, although the difference
is not staggering. This result seems to further the pattern of those
who are affected by popular culture being more inclined to believe
in Roswell. Clearly, taking the time and possible expense to actually
join a fan club is even more of a commitment to a show than merely
watching it regularly on television.
There is no greatly discernible difference between fans of
science fiction shows and non-science fiction shows (only two
points) with regard to belief in Roswell. Disbelief in Roswell
between those two categories of fans is higher. But the highest level
of disbelief in Roswell, as well as the lowest level of belief, lies with
those who belong to no fan club at all.
Popular Culture 121
TV Fan Club Membership
38.6% 31.7%
36.6%
27.2% 28.1%
20.0%
Member of a Member of a Not a Member of a

Science Fiction Non-Science TVProgramFan
TVProgramFan Fiction TV Club at All
Club ProgramFanClub
Believe in Roswell
Of those who are members of fan clubs of a science fiction

program, 36.6 percent believe Roswell is very likely or are certain
of it, while 20 percent believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen
at all. Of those who are members of fan clubs of a program that is
not science fiction, 38.6 percent believe Roswell is very likely or are
certain of it, while 27.2 percent believe Roswell is unlikely or did not
happen at all.
Those who do not belong to a television show fan club at all
believe Roswell is very likely or are certain of it at 31.7 percent, and
believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all at 28.1 percent.
So once again, being affected by popular culture does affect
the likelihood of one believing in Roswell.
Conspiracy Theories
ITEM: A belief in a Kennedy assassination conspiracy
coincides overwhelmingly with a belief in a conspiracy at
Roswell. Likewise, those who do not believe in a Kennedy
assassination conspiracy also tend to not believe in a Roswell
conspiracy.
ITEM: Those who are almost certain of a JFK con-

spiracy are ten times more likely to believe in Roswell than
those who definitely do not believe in a JFK conspiracy. They
are four times more likely to believe in Roswell than those
who think a JFK conspiracy is very unlikely, and by 20 points
are more likely to believe in Roswell than those who believe
probably in a JFK conspiracy.
ITEM: Those who definitely do not believe in a JFK

conspiracy are eight times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as
those who almost certainly believe in a JFK conspiracy. They
are almost four times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those
who think there probably was a JFK conspiracy, and by 23
points are more likely to disbelieve in Roswell than those
who think a JFK conspiracy is very unlikely.
If the Roswell incident is anything, it is the belief in a conspiracy

theory. Whether a person believes in Roswell or not, everyone
agrees that believing in Roswell is believing in a government
conspiracy to cover up the fact that aliens landed in Roswell in 1947.
An important part of this survey is to determine if there is a
certain type of person who is inclined to believe in conspiracy
theories, and if a given person believes in one or many conspiracy
theories, is that person more likely to believe in Roswell.
The two great conspiracy theories of this generation are the
Kennedy assassination and September 11th. Are people who
believe in those conspiracy theories more likely to believe in
Roswell? Of those who answered “almost certainly” to the question
Conspiracy Theories 123
of whether President Kennedy’s assassination was part of a

conspiracy, an astounding 60.6 percent said that Roswell is very
likely or they are certain of it. Only 8.7 percent of that group said
Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all. Already the results are
astonishingly revealing. The 60.6 percent figure is 25 points higher
than the average response to this survey question, showing a clear
connection between believing in a JFK conspiracy and believing in
Roswell.
Of those who answered “probably” to the Kennedy assassina-
tion question, 39.1 percent believe Roswell very likely or are certain
of it. While this is a drop of 21 points from those who answered
“almost certainly” to the JFK question, it is still higher than the
average response to this survey question. Of those who answered
“probably” to the JFK question, 18.2 percent said Roswell was
unlikely or they did not believe it at all. This is a rise of 10 points from
those who answered “almost certainly” but is still very low and
continues the trend that the more one is certain of a conspiracy
regarding JFK, the more one is certain of a Roswell conspiracy.
Of those who answered “very unlikely” to the JFK question,
only 15.3 percent believe that Roswell is very likely or are certain of
it, a huge drop of 45 points from those who answered “almost
certainly” to the JFK question. Again, this is now a predictable
answer. Not believing in a JFK conspiracy mirrors non-belief in a
Roswell conspiracy. Those who answered “very unlikely” to the
Kennedy question think Roswell unlikely or do not believe it at all at
a percentage of 45.2, a predictable rise of 37 points from those who
answered “almost certainly” to the Kennedy question.
Finally, there is the group with the least belief in a Kennedy
conspiracy, those who answered “definitely not” to the JFK ques-
tion. Of that group, a whopping 68.2 percent said that Roswell is
unlikely or did not happen at all – a 60 point rise from the group on
the other extreme that answered “almost certainly” to the JFK
question. The 68.2 percent figure is 41 points higher than the average
answer to that survey question about belief in Roswell. Those who
answered “definitely not” to the JFK question believed at only 5.8
percent that Roswell is likely or are certain of it.
Belief in a Kennedy Assassination

Conspiracy
5.8%
15.3%
60.6% 39.1% 31.7%

68.2%
45.2%
18.2% 20.1%
8.7%
Almost Probably Very Unlikely Definitely Unsure
Certainly Not
Believe in Roswell
Those who are “unsure” about a JFK conspiracy believe

Roswell at 31.7 percent and disbelieve Roswell at 20.1 percent.
What all of this means is that those who are almost certain of
a JFK conspiracy are ten times more likely to believe in Roswell than
those who definitely do not believe in a JFK conspiracy. They are
four times more likely than those who think a JFK conspiracy is very
unlikely, and by 20 points are more likely to believe in Roswell than
those who believe probably in a JFK conspiracy. Moreover, those
who are almost certain of a JFK conspiracy are seven times more
likely to believe in Roswell than to disbelieve Roswell. Those who

believe probably in a JFK conspiracy are twice as likely to believe
Roswell as to disbelieve Roswell.
Likewise, those who definitely do not believe in a JFK
conspiracy are eight times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those
who almost certainly believe in a JFK conspiracy. They are almost
four times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who think there
probably was a JFK conspiracy, and by 23 points are more likely to
disbelieve in Roswell than those who think a JFK conspiracy was
very unlikely.
Moreover, those who definitely do not believe in a JFK
conspiracy are 11 times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than to
believe Roswell. And those who think a JFK conspiracy very
unlikely are 3 times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as to believe
Roswell.
The relation between the answers to these two questions is
stark and clear. There is an obvious relation between believing in the
Kennedy assassination conspiracy and belief that aliens landed at
Roswell. The connection is so overwhelming and unambiguous that
there is a sliding scale of belief between the two. As belief rises or
falls dramatically in one, it rises or falls at the same rate in the other.
“Conspiracies appeal to our hopes and our fears,” says Joe
Nickell. “Roswell, the idea that aliens are coming to earth, can be a
hopeful sign but maybe the aliens mean us ill, and maybe the
government is covering up the awful truth. These are impulses to the
point of paranoia, not logical and rational or well thought out.
“The skeptic is going to be someone who has learned not to
make an emotional judgment, but to look at evidence. The average
skeptic would be someone who values the evidential approach. Of
course, I know debunkers who simply have decided categorically
that flying saucers are not visiting earth and ghosts are not haunting
houses and they are very dismissive. They’re not willing to look at
another case because they think they’ve already looked at the basic
evidence and find it so wanting that they’re not willing to look at the
next case.”
Nickell adds, “We ought to investigate cases because science
can be wrong and science doesn’t know everything but because

other things can be learned. We can learn about ourselves and our
world.”
He concludes, “Religion and conspiracy theories are often
very tied up together. As folklorists have said, Satan is the source of
all evil conspiracies and God is the protector.”
ITEM: A belief that the United States government

either knew in advance about September 11th or had some-
thing to do with it corresponds overwhelmingly with a belief
in a conspiracy at Roswell. Likewise, those who do not
believe in a September 11th conspiracy also tend to not
believe in a Roswell conspiracy.
ITEM: Those who are very certain about a September

11th conspiracy are three times as likely to believe Roswell
as those who believe definitely that there was no September
11th conspiracy. They are two and a half times as likely to
believe in Roswell as those who think it unlikely that there is
a September 11th conspiracy.
ITEM: Those who are very certain of a September 11th

conspiracy are six times as likely to believe Roswell as to
disbelieve Roswell.
ITEM: Those who believe definitely not in a September

11th conspiracy are five and a half times more likely to
disbelieve Roswell than those who are very certain of a
September 11th conspiracy.
To further buttress the connection between believing in other

great conspiracy theories with belief in Roswell, the same question
was asked regarding September 11th. Respondents were asked if
they believed the United States government knew in advance or had
something to do with it. Of those who answered “very certain” to this
question, an astonishing 60.3 percent said Roswell was very likely or

were certain of it. This was the same percentage as those who gave
that answer to the Kennedy question. Only 10.3 percent of those
“very certain” about a September 11th conspiracy believe that
Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all.
Those who answered “likely” to the September 11th question
also said that Roswell was very likely or were certain of it at a
percentage of 41.4, again almost identical to those who answered
this way about the JFK question. And again, this continues the trend
that the stronger the belief in one conspiracy, the stronger the belief
in Roswell. Those who answered “likely” to the September 11th
question said that Roswell was unlikely or did not believe it at all at
a low 13 percent, but a little higher than those who said “very certain”
about September 11th.
Predictably, those doubting a September 11th conspiracy also
doubted Roswell – and again the degree of doubt in one coincides
with the degree of doubt in the other. Of those who answered
“unlikely” to the September 11th question, only 24.5 percent believed
that Roswell is very likely or are certain of it, a 36 percent drop from
those who said “very certain” to the September 11th question. Of
those who answered “unlikely” to September 11th, 28 percent
believed Roswell was unlikely or did not happen at all, a rise of 18
points from those who are “very certain” of September 11th and a
rise of 15 points from those who answered “likely” to September
11th.
Finally, those who gave the most definitive negative statement
about a possible September 11th conspiracy by answering “defi-
nitely not” continued the trend. Only 20.4 percent of that group said
Roswell was very likely or are certain of it. 56.3 percent of those who
answered “definitely not” about September 11th said that Roswell
was unlikely or did not happen at all. This is a rise of 46 points from
those who gave the answer on the other extreme, “very certain”
about September 11th.
So those who are very certain about a September 11th
conspiracy are three times as likely to believe Roswell as those who
believe definitely that there was no September 11th conspiracy.
They are two and a half times as likely to believe in Roswell as those
who think it unlikely that there is a September 11th conspiracy.
Those who believe definitely not in a September 11th con-
spiracy are five and a half times more likely to disbelieve Roswell
than those who are very certain of a September 11th conspiracy, are
five times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who think a
September 11th conspiracy likely, and are twice as likely to disbe-
lieve as those who think a September 11th conspiracy unlikely.
Moreover, those who are very certain of a September 11th
Belief in a September 11th Conspiracy
20.4%
60.3% 24.5%
41.4% 56.3%
28.0%
13.0%
10.3%
Very Likely Unlikely Definitely
Certain Not
Believe in Roswell

conspiracy are six times as likely to believe Roswell as to disbelieve

Roswell. Those who believe a September 11th conspiracy is likely
are three times as likely to believe Roswell as to disbelieve Roswell.
And those who believe there is definitely not a September 11th
conspiracy are almost three times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as
to believe Roswell.
What all of this shows is that despite people’s insistence that
they look at the facts of each particular case in order to make a
judgment, there is simply no doubt that there is a personality trait that
inclines some people to believe in conspiracy theories. Whatever the
merits are to that belief, there is also no doubt that it pervades
people’s thinking across the board and applies to most of the major
conspiracies. Had questions about Bigfoot and Martin Luther King’s
assassination been added to the survey, there is little doubt that the
trend would have continued.
Roswell believer Tom Carey, who does not believe in a JFK or
September 11th conspiracy, says, “Conspiracy theories are interest-
ing. It’s like a mystery novel. Why do people like mysteries? It’s the
same thing.”
Stanton Friedman adds, “The finding makes sense to me.
There are still people who believe that governments can’t keep
secrets. And people who believe governments are good, honest,
decent, and always tell the truth.”
Regarding September 11th, Joe Nickell states, “The type of
person who would be given to believe that the government planted
explosives there would believe anything.”
Michael Shermer says, “These conspiracy believers are likely
to believe most conspiracies are real, the Obama birthers, the 9/11
truthers, and conspiracies about Bildebergers, the Rothschilds, and
the Rockefellers.”
Conclusion
The survey conducted for this thesis is the first exhaustively
detailed survey ever constructed to answer the question of who
believes in Roswell. The findings are very interesting and often
fascinating.
While no personal characteristic can be linked to belief in
Roswell at an absolute rate, the answers to the questions frequently
show a definite pattern and consistency regarding the multi-faceted
profile of the person who is most likely to believe that aliens landed
at Roswell, New Mexico, in 1947. Since the Roswell incident is such
a fantastic event, any finding that reveals the profile of someone who
believes Roswell is both interesting and worth knowing.
It has been clearly determined through this survey that the
more knowledge a person has about the Roswell incident, the more
likely that person is to believe that aliens landed at Roswell. This is
true not only in fact but in degree, as demonstrated by the results
showing that those who know very much about Roswell are five and
a half times as likely to believe Roswell as to disbelieve Roswell.
Those who know very much about Roswell are also four times
more likely to believe the alien version of Roswell than those who
know nothing or only the very basics about the case. They are also
more than twice as likely to believe the alien version as those who
know only a moderate amount.
What is also clear is that those who know nothing about
Roswell are four times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who
know very much about the case, and are three times as likely to
disbelieve Roswell as those who know more than average.
Moreover, those who know more than average are three times
as likely to believe Roswell as they are to disbelieve Roswell. And
those who know only the basics about Roswell are twice as likely to
disbelieve Roswell as to believe Roswell. So there can be no doubt
that the degree of knowledge about the Roswell incident corre-
sponds in proportion to the degree that one believes or disbelieves the
Roswell incident.
Conclusion 131
It is also true that those who base their opinion of the Roswell
incident on their pre-conceived notions rather than on the facts of the
case are more than twice as likely to hold the opinion that Roswell
didn’t happen. This would indicate that disbelievers in something as
fantastic as Roswell are more set in their beliefs than potential
believers and are less likely to change their minds based on specific
facts presented to them. This finding is buttressed by a separate
finding that those who believe Roswell are two and a half times as
likely to base their beliefs on the specific facts of the case rather than
on their pre-conceived notions.
Survey results also show that those who believe Roswell are
more than three times as likely to be convinced by an expert’s
arguments as those who disbelieve Roswell. All of this tends to be
consistent with survey findings that show that skeptics are less likely
to be convinced by evidence than non-skeptics.
The one thing the survey shows that most respondents agree
on is that there was a government cover-up of some kind, even by
those who do not believe there were aliens at Roswell.
Given the fact that the more knowledgeable about the Roswell
incident one is, the more likely one is to believe Roswell, it is therefore
consistent that the questionnaire reveals that those who have heard
of Project Mogul are almost three times as likely to believe in
Roswell as to disbelieve it, and are significantly more likely to believe
Roswell than those who have not heard of Project Mogul.
The survey also produces interesting findings with regard to
the personal demographics of respondents. Results indicate that
those with a college degree are less likely to believe in Roswell than
those without a college degree. Indeed, the less education a person
has, the more likely he is to believe in Roswell.
In addition, a background in science makes one slightly less
likely to believe Roswell, although the characterization of “back-
ground in science” is not narrowly defined and can include every-
thing from high school science teachers to nuclear physicists.
Results also show that those who have been in the military are
more likely to have a strong belief in Roswell than those without
military experience.
Regarding religious affiliation, the survey shows that Catholics

are the most likely of any specific religious group to believe in
Roswell, followed by Protestants. Jews, on the other hand, are the
least likely religious group to believe in Roswell, while atheists and
agnostics are significantly less likely than all religious believers to
believe in Roswell.
On political philosophy, results show that the more conserva-
tive one’s politics, the more likely one is to believe in Roswell. But
at the same time, those who indentify themselves as “apolitical” are
the most likely to believe in Roswell. So the fact that conservatives
are most likely to believe applies only to those who identify them-
selves as having a political persuasion, not apolitical people. Interest-
ingly, this does not translate into any differences regarding political
party affiliation. There is virtually no difference between Republi-
cans and Democrats regarding belief in Roswell.
Regarding race, results indicate that non-whites are more
likely than whites to believe in Roswell. This is true for non-whites
both collectively and each group separated individually – blacks,
Hispanics, and those of mixed race. On age, the older a person is, the
more likely that person will believe in Roswell. But with gender, there
is no significant difference between men and women regarding
belief in Roswell.
Geographic demographics clearly indicate that people born in
the United States are more likely to believe in Roswell than those not
born in the United States. Similarly, those not born in the United
States are more likely to disbelieve Roswell than people born in the
United States. This trend continues with the survey findings regard-
ing where people are raised. Those not raised in the United States
are less likely to believe in Roswell than those raised in the United
States. However, the results also show no greatly discernible
difference in belief in Roswell among the different geographic areas
of the United States.
Nevertheless, an interesting demographic finding is that people
who live in small towns are more likely to believe in Roswell than
those who reside in cities or suburbs.
The correlation between personal belief systems and belief in
Conclusion 133
Roswell is fascinating. Indeed, survey results show that the more

religious a person is, the more likely that person is to believe in the
alien version of Roswell. This is one of many findings that demon-
strates that those who tend to believe in matters supernatural or
paranormal also tend to have a higher level of belief in Roswell.
Belief in an afterlife is also a significant indicator of the level
of belief in Roswell. A person who believes in an afterlife is two and
a half times as likely to believe in Roswell as a person who does not
believe in an afterlife and twice as likely to believe in Roswell as to
disbelieve in Roswell. A person who does not believe in an afterlife
is two and a half times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than a person
who believes in an afterlife and three times as likely to disbelieve
Roswell as to believe in Roswell.
Likewise, findings show that belief in a personal God makes
someone substantially more likely to believe in Roswell than to
disbelieve Roswell. Someone who believes in a personal God is also
much more likely than a disbeliever in God to believe in Roswell. A
person who does not believe in a personal God is twice as likely to
not believe in Roswell as to believe in Roswell. But in what appears
to be an anomaly of sorts, those who attend religious services
regularly are the least likely to believe in Roswell. This is probably
explained by survey results which seem to show that the degree to
which someone is religious is a much better distinguisher of someone’s
level of belief in Roswell than attendance at religious services.
Similarly, the more superstitious a person is, the more likely to
believe in Roswell. In fact, someone who is very superstitious is
more than twice as likely to believe in Roswell as someone who is
not superstitious at all. And someone who is not superstitious at all
is more than three times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as someone
who is very superstitious and twice as likely to disbelieve Roswell as
someone who is only somewhat superstitious.
The trend continues regarding belief in psychic powers. The
more a person believes in the existence of psychic powers, the more
likely the person will believe in Roswell. Broken down further,
people who believe very much in the existence of psychic powers
are five and a half times as likely to believe in Roswell as to disbelieve
Roswell. They are three times as likely to believe in Roswell as

people who are unsure about the existence of psychic powers, and
are seven times as likely to believe in Roswell as people who do not
believe in psychic powers at all.
Moreover, people who do not believe in psychic powers at all
are eight and a half times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than to
believe Roswell. They are seven times as likely to disbelieve Roswell
as those who believe very much in psychic powers, four times as
likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who believe in psychic powers
in a small number of people, and twice as likely to disbelieve Roswell
as people who are unsure about psychic powers.
Analyzed further, those who believe in psychic powers in a
small number of people are four and a half times as likely to believe
in Roswell as those who do not believe in psychic powers at all, and
twice as likely to believe in Roswell as those who are unsure about
the existence of psychic powers. They are also twice as likely to
believe in Roswell as to disbelieve in Roswell.
The survey found this trend to be consistent regarding the
belief in the spirits of deceased loved ones. Those who believe in the
spirits of deceased loved ones are more than three times as likely to
believe in Roswell as to disbelieve it, and are more than three times
as likely to believe in Roswell as those who do not believe in the
spirits. They are also more than twice as likely to believe Roswell as
those who are “unsure” about the spirits of deceased loved ones.
Moreover, those who do not believe in the spirits of deceased
loved ones are four and a half times as likely to disbelieve Roswell
as to believe in Roswell, and are five times more likely to disbelieve
Roswell than those who believe in the spirits. They are more than
twice as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who are unsure about
the spirits. Those who are unsure about the spirits of deceased loved
ones are two and a half times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those
who do believe in the spirits.
Predictably, those who believe in the paranormal (telepathy,
mediumship, precognition, clairvoyance) are almost four times as
likely to believe Roswell as to disbelieve Roswell. They are four and
a half times more likely to believe in Roswell than those who do not
Conclusion 135
believe in the paranormal and are two and a half times as likely to
believe in Roswell as those who are unsure about the paranormal.
The findings also show that those who do not believe in the
paranormal are seven times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than
to believe Roswell. They are almost six times more likely to
disbelieve Roswell than those who believe in the paranormal, and are
more than twice as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who are
unsure about the paranormal.
On survey questions relating to outer space and extraterrestri-
als, the results clearly show that belief in intelligent life elsewhere in
the universe corresponds strongly to belief in Roswell. Those who
believe strongly that there is intelligent life elsewhere in the universe
are five times as likely to believe that aliens landed at Roswell as
those who merely believe intelligent life in the universe is “possible.”
Only one in seven people who strongly believes that that there is
intelligent life elsewhere in the universe believes that aliens did not
land at Roswell.
Regarding alien contact, only a tiny 1.5 percent of people who
believe aliens have visited Earth do not believe aliens visited
Roswell. Two-thirds of those who believe aliens have landed on
Earth also believe aliens landed at Roswell. This shows a strong
correlation between belief in alien contact of some kind and belief in
Roswell.
In addition, a person who believes that aliens have contacted
humans is ten times more likely to believe in Roswell than a person
who does not believe aliens have contacted humans. A person who
believes aliens have contacted humans is also ten times more likely
to believe in Roswell than to disbelieve Roswell.
Similarly, those who do not believe that aliens have ever
contacted humans are twelve times more likely to disbelieve Roswell
than those who do believe aliens have contacted humans and are
twelve times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than to believe
Roswell.
The trend continues regarding aliens contacting the govern-
ment. Survey results show that those who believe aliens have
contacted the United States government are more than four times
more likely to believe in Roswell than those who don’t believe aliens
have contacted the government. They are an astounding 63 times
more likely to believe Roswell than not believe Roswell.
Conversely, those who do not believe aliens have contacted the
government are three times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than
to believe Roswell and are 44 times more likely to disbelieve Roswell
than those who do believe aliens have contacted the government.
Belief in personal contact with aliens has just as stark a
correlation with belief in Roswell. People who believe they have had
personal contact with aliens are 13 times more likely to believe in
Roswell than to disbelieve Roswell and are two and a half times more
likely to believe Roswell than those who do not believe they have
been contacted by aliens.
On the other hand, those who do not believe they have been
contacted by aliens are almost six times more likely to disbelieve
Roswell than those who do believe they have been contacted by
aliens.
The trend is similar but not as stark for those who know
someone who claims to have been contacted by aliens. The findings
are that a person who knows someone who claims to have been
contacted by aliens is more than three times more likely to believe
in Roswell than to disbelieve Roswell and is substantially more likely
to believe Roswell than someone who does not know such a person.
Again, the converse is true. A person who does not know
someone who claims to have been contacted by aliens is twice as
likely to disbelieve Roswell as someone who does know such a
person.
Survey findings show somewhat nuanced results regarding the
effect of popular culture on people’s belief in Roswell. Sometimes
there is a clear effect and sometimes not. For example, familiarity
with the television show “Roswell” does have an impact on whether
or not one believes in Roswell, but not a significant impact. And
devout science fiction fans are no more or less likely than non-
science fiction fans to believe in Roswell.
But when respondents were explicitly asked if popular culture
affected their view of the Roswell incident, those whose views have
Conclusion 137
been affected by popular culture are more likely to believe in Roswell

than those on whom culture has had no effect. Those who have not
been affected by popular culture are more than twice as likely to
disbelieve Roswell as those who have been affected by popular
culture.
Survey results, however, are very clear when it comes to the
correlation between interest in UFO’s and belief in Roswell. The
results broken down show that people who are “very interested” in
UFO’s and extraterrestrials are more than six times as likely to
believe in Roswell as to disbelieve Roswell and are more than twice
as likely to believe in Roswell as those who are “somewhat
interested.” They are also almost three times less likely to disbelieve
Roswell than those who are “somewhat interested” and are six times
as likely to believe in Roswell as those who are “not interested.”
Moreover, people who are “not interested” in UFO’s are more
than six times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as they are to believe
Roswell and are seven times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than
those who are “very interested” in UFO’s. They are also two and
a half times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than those who are
“somewhat interested.”
Those who are “somewhat interested” in UFO’s are three
times as likely to believe Roswell as those who are “not interested.”
So the degree of interest in UFO’s certainly rises and falls with the
degree of belief in Roswell.
Given the previous findings, it comes as no surprise that people
who are members of UFO organizations are ten times as likely to
believe Roswell as to disbelieve, and are more than twice as likely
to believe in Roswell than people who are not members of UFO
organizations.
Findings also show that people who belong to fan clubs of
television programs, whether science fiction or not, are somewhat
more likely to believe in Roswell than people who do not belong to
any fan club.
Since one of the primary aspects of the entire Roswell incident
is that it is widely believed to involve a government conspiracy, a
major survey finding is that there is a clear connection between the
belief in past conspiracy theories and belief in Roswell.

A belief in a Kennedy assassination conspiracy coincides
overwhelmingly with a belief in a conspiracy at Roswell. Likewise,
those who do not believe in a Kennedy assassination conspiracy also
tend to not believe in a Roswell conspiracy.
Analyzed further, those who are almost certain of a JFK
conspiracy are ten times more likely to believe in Roswell than those
who definitely do not believe in a JFK conspiracy. They are four
times more likely to believe in Roswell than those who think a JFK
conspiracy is very unlikely, and by 20 points are more likely to believe
in Roswell than those who believe probably in a JFK conspiracy.
Those who are almost certain of a JFK conspiracy are seven times
more likely to believe in Roswell than to disbelieve Roswell. Those
who believe probably in a JFK conspiracy are twice as likely to
believe Roswell as to disbelieve Roswell.
On the other side, those who definitely do not believe in a JFK
conspiracy are eight times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those
who almost certainly believe in a JFK conspiracy. They are almost
four times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as those who think there
probably was a JFK conspiracy, and by 23 points are more likely to
disbelieve in Roswell than those who think a JFK conspiracy is very
unlikely.
Those who definitely do not believe in a JFK conspiracy are 11
times more likely to disbelieve Roswell than to believe Roswell. And
those who think a JFK conspiracy very unlikely are 3 times as likely
to disbelieve Roswell as to believe Roswell.
Survey findings are similar for the other great modern con-
spiracy theory, September 11th. A belief that the United States
government either knew in advance about September 11th or had
something to do with it corresponds overwhelmingly with a belief in
a conspiracy at Roswell. Likewise, those who do not believe in a
September 11th conspiracy also tend to not believe in a Roswell
conspiracy.
Those who are very certain about a September 11th con-
spiracy are three times as likely to believe Roswell as those who
believe definitely that there was no September 11th conspiracy.
Conclusion 139
They are two and a half times as likely to believe in Roswell as those
who think it unlikely that there is a September 11th conspiracy.
In addition, those who are very certain of a September 11th
conspiracy are six times as likely to believe Roswell as to disbelieve
Roswell. Those who believe a September 11th conspiracy is likely
are three times as likely to believe Roswell as to disbelieve Roswell.
The trend continues with those who do not believe in such a
conspiracy. Those who believe there is definitely not a September
11th conspiracy are almost three times as likely to disbelieve Roswell
as to believe Roswell. They are also five and a half times more likely
to disbelieve Roswell than those who are very certain of a Septem-
ber 11th conspiracy, are five times as likely to disbelieve Roswell as
those who think a September 11th conspiracy likely, and are twice
as likely to disbelieve as those who think a September 11th con-
spiracy unlikely.
The findings herein are amazing and worthwhile on a topic so
many Americans find fascinating. The findings will serve as a
significant starting point on any further research into the Roswell
incident.
References
Alien believers flock to Roswell for ‘crash’ anniversary.
(1997). Retrieved from
http://www.cnn.com/TECH/9707/02/roswell.anniversary/
Berliner, D., & Friedman, S. T. (2004). Crash at Corona: The

U.S. military retrieval and cover-up of a ufo. New York, NY:
Paraview.
Carey, T. J., & Schmitt, D. R. (2009). Witness to Roswell:

Unmasking the government’s biggest cover-up. Franklin Lakes,
NJ: Career Press.
Friedman, S. T. (2008). Flying saucers and science: A

scientist investigates the mysteries of ufos: Interstellar travel,
crashes, and government cover-ups. Franklin Lakes, NJ: Career
Press.
Pflock, K. T. (2001). Roswell: Inconvenient facts and the

will to believe. Amherst, NY: Prometheus.
Poll: U.S. hiding knowledge of aliens. (1997). Retrieved from

http://www.cnn.com/US/9706/15/ufo.poll/
Randle, K. D. (2000). The Roswell Encyclopedia. New

York, NY: HarperCollins.
Saler, B., Ziegler, C. A., & Moore, C. B. (1997). UFO crash

at Roswell: The genesis of a modern myth. Washington, DC:
Smithsonian Institution Press.
Tuckett, K. (2004). Conspiracy theories. New York, NY:

Berkley.
Appendix A 141
Appendix A
Introduction to the questionnaire
What do you think about the “Roswell

incident”?
This survey, which I am conducting for my Masters thesis at
Fordham University, is intended to discover the extent of people’s
knowledge and opinions of the “Roswell incident.” It is a simple
multiple choice survey that should take about five minutes to
complete. All responses are anonymous, even to me. So please be
thorough and accurate. Thanks for your help — Frank Borzellieri.
What is commonly known as the “Roswell incident” or simply
“Roswell” is as follows: In July of 1947, in the town of Roswell, New
Mexico, strange materials were recovered in a field by a farmer who
notified local authorities. Speculation began circulating that the
debris was “not of this world.” The incident prompted the Roswell
Army Air Field to call a press conference and issue a statement
saying the debris was from a weather balloon, not a “flying saucer.”
The press conference ended speculation for the most part, and the
incident was dormant from the public consciousness for 30 years.
The entire Roswell incident was revived in 1978 when Army
Major Jesse Marcel stated that in 1947 he had been part of a military
cover-up after he recovered and examined the unusual materials,
which included metals that would not wrinkle or burn. Marcel had
participated in the press conference that deceived the public. He said
the recovery was not really a weather balloon and he believed the
government was covering up the discovery of alien spacecraft and
even possible bodies of extraterrestrials. He had kept all this a secret
for 30 years.
Since Marcel’s revelation in 1978, an entire Roswell industry
has sprouted – hundreds of books have been written on the case,
more than one major motion picture has been produced, a television
series has been launched, annual Roswell conventions are held in the
city of Roswell, and endless speculation has arisen. Today, the very
word “Roswell” is synonymous with the notions of extraterrestrials
and government cover-ups.
Appendix B 143
Appendix B
Actual results of the questionnaire
based on 1,066 responses
1. Before reading the introduction to this survey, how

much did you know about the “Roswell incident”?
Response
Percent
Nothing at all 6.5%
Only the very basics 33.0%
Moderate Amount 30.5%
More than average 20.8%
Very much 9.3%
2. Do you believe in the two major specific conten-

tions that define the “Roswell incident” – that extra-
terrestrials landed in Roswell, New Mexico in 1947,
and that the government covered it up?
Response
Percent
Not at All 10.5%
Unlikely 17.1%
Possible 39.8%
Very Likely 24.6%
Certain of it 8.1%
3. Is your opinion of the “Roswell incident” based on the

specific facts pertaining to Roswell as you know them, or on
your pre-conceived notions? (In other words, you
theoretically might believe or not believe in Roswell, but the
facts of the case convince you otherwise.)
Response
Percent
My opinion is based
on my preconceived
notions 42.5%
Specific facts
affect my opinion 57.5%
4. Do you believe in the possibility that there is

intelligent life somewhere else in the universe?
Response
Percent
Not at All 1.8%
Unlikely 5.6%
Possible 24.6%
Very Likely 39.6%
Certain of it 28.4%
5. Not specific to the “Roswell incident,” do you

believe that extraterrestrials have ever visited Earth?
Response
Percent
Not at All 8.0%
Unlikely 16.8%
Possible 33.3%
Very Likely 27.5%
Certain of it 14.4%
Appendix B 145
6. Have you ever watched the television series

“Roswell”?
Response
Percent
Watched it, very familiar
with it 7.5%
Somewhat familiar with it 11.6%
Heard of it, but never
watched it 50.1%
Never heard of it 30.8%
7. How religious are you?

Response
Percent
Atheist 10.9%
Agnostic 19.4%
Believer, but not very religious 31.0%
Somewhat religious 24.6%
Very religious 14.1%
8. What is your education level?

Response
Percent
Currently in high school 1.3%
High School Dropout 1.2%
High School Graduate 8.4%
Some College 36.8%
Bachelors 33.0%
Masters 16.1%
PhD 3.2%
9. Are you a fan of science fiction?

Response
Percent
Devout 4.2%
Very Much 23.3%
Moderately 49.6%
Not at all 22.9%
10. Do you have a background in science?

Response
Percent
Yes 32.3%
No 67.7%
11. Have you ever been in the military?

Response
Percent
Yes 12.0%
No 88.0%
Appendix B 147
12. Do you believe President Kennedy’s assassination

was part of a conspiracy?
Response
Percent
Almost Certainly 15.1%
Probably 33.1%
Very Unlikely 24.0%
Definitely Not 8.0%
Unsure 19.7%
13. Do you believe the United States government

knew about September 11th in advance or had
something to do with it?
Response
Percent
Very Certain 10.9%
Likely 30.3%
Unlikely 38.0%
Definitely Not 20.8%
14. Do you believe in an afterlife?

Response
Percent
Yes 58.3%
No 14.7%
Unsure 26.9%
15. Do you believe in a personal God?

Response
Percent
Yes 57.8%
No 21.8%
Unsure 20.4%
16. Are you open to the possibility that the “Roswell

incident” could be true – if you would allow yourself to
listen to a well-informed expert on the case?
Response
Percent
Yes 68.0%
Maybe 27.3%
No, nothing 4.7%
could convince
me
17. Do you believe aliens have ever contacted

humans?
Response
Percent
Yes 60.1%
No 39.9%
Appendix B 149
18. Do you believe aliens have ever contacted the

United States government?
Response
Percent
Yes 37.3%
No 62.7%
19. Do you believe that you personally have had

contact with aliens?
Response
Percent
Yes 5.5%
No 94.5%
20. Do you personally know of someone who has

claimed to have been contacted by aliens?
Response
Percent
Yes 14.2%
No 85.8%
21. Without regard to level of commitment, what

religion are you?
Response
Percent
Catholic 21.0%
Protestant 21.0%
Jewish 3.4%
Moselm 0.5%
Hindu 0.5%
Other 13.9%
Spiritual but no specific religion 19.3%
Atheist/Agnostic 20.4%
22. Do you attend religious services?
Response
Percent
Regularly 13.9%
Sometimes 19.0%
Seldom 23.4%
Never or Almost Never 43.7%
23. Were you born in the United States?

Response
Percent
Yes 94.3%
No 5.7%
Appendix B 151
24. In what section of the United States were you

raised?
Response
Percent
Northeast 29.7%
South 14.3%
Southwest 5.1%
Midwest 31.2%
West coast 8.7%
Northwest 5.0%
North central 2.5%
Not raised in the United States 3.6%
25. What is your race?
Response
Percent
Black 2.3%
White 86.7%
Mixed 5.3%
Asian 1.8%
Non-white 4.0%
Hispanic
26. How would you describe your politics?

Response
Percent
Conservative 16.3%
Very Conservative 4.8%
Liberal 30.2%
Very liberal 12.4%
Moderate 26.9%
Apolitical 9.3%
27. With which political party would you most closely

identify yourself?
Response
Percent
Republican 33.3%
Democrat 66.7%
28. What is your age?

Response
Percent
14-17 1.0%
18-29 33.6%
30-49 38.5%
50-65 23.8%
Over 65 3.2%
Appendix B 153
29. What is your gender?

Response
Percent
Male 41.4%
Female 58.6%
30. Do you believe that the government was engaged

in a cover-up at Roswell, even if it was not about
aliens?
Response
Percent
Yes, the government was
hiding something
80.0%
No, the government
version was truthful
11.8%
Question doesn't apply - I
believe aliens were there
8.2%
31. Do you know what Project Mogul is?
Response
Percent
Yes 14.4%
No 85.6%
32. Are you interested in the topic of UFO’s and

extraterrestrials?
Response
Percent
Very interested 27.8%
Somewhat interested 54.6%
Not interested 17.6%
33. Has popular culture, such as movies and science

fiction, affected your view (whatever that view may be)
of the “Roswell incident”?
Response
Percent
Yes, it got me curious
and interested 31.9%
No effect 68.1%
34. Are you a member of a UFO organization?

Response
Percent
Yes 4.1%
No 95.9%
Appendix B 155
35. Which best describes where you live?
Response
Percent
City 41.5%
Suburb 37.2%
Small town 21.3%
36. Where is your place of birth?

Response
Percent
United States
94.3%
Africa 0.0%
Asia 0.8%
Europe 2.2%
South America 0.8%
Australia 0.3%
Mexico 0.8%
Canada 0.7%
37. Are you superstitious?

Response
Percent
Very much 3.6%
Somewhat 44.1%
Not at all 52.3%
38. Are you a medical doctor or lawyer?

Response
Percent
M.D. 0.9%
Lawyer 1.3%
Neither
97.7%
39. Are you a member of the clergy or any religious

order (nun, rabbi, minister, etc.)?
Response
Percent
Yes 2.1%
No 97.9%
40. Are you in any way connected to a fan club of a

popular television program?
Response
Percent
Yes, a science fiction show 2.8%

Yes, but not science fiction 4.2%
No
93.0%
Appendix B 157
41. Do you believe in the existence of psychic

powers?
Response
Percent
Yes, very much 22.4%
Yes, in a small number of people 40.1%
Not at all 15.2%
Unsure 22.3%
42. Do you believe in the existence of the spirits of

deceased loved ones?
Response
Percent
Yes 51.3%
No 19.7%
Unsure 29.0%
43. Do you believe in the paranormal (telepathy,

mediumship, precognition, clairvoyance)?
Response
Percent
Yes 56.3%
No 16.9%
Unsure 26.7%
Other Books by Frank Borzellieri
The Unspoken Truth: Race, Culture and Other Taboos (New

Century, 1999)
It Happened in New York (Globe Pequot, First Edition 2000;

Second Edition 2006)
Don’t Take It Personally: Race, Immigration, Crime and

Other Heresies (New Century, 2004)
The Physics of Dark Shadows: Time Travel, ESP, and the

Laboratory (Cultural Studies Press, 2008)
Lynched: A Conservative's Life on a New York City School

Board (CSP, 2009)
To order other books by Frank Borzellieri,

visit:
www.culturalstudiespress.com
About the Author 159
About the Author

Frank Borzellieri is adjunct professor of journalism and media
writing at St. John’s University in New York City. He is the author
of six books and has written hundreds of newspaper articles
published in a variety of journals including Newsday, USA Today,
the New York Daily News, and many others.
He has been profiled in many major newspapers and maga-
zines including the New York Times, Washington Times, New York
Post, and the Village Voice.
Frank Borzellieri has appeared on many television programs
including ABC’s 20/20, the Ricki Lake Show, Geraldo Rivera , Fox
Sunday Morning, Good Morning America, Leeza Gibbons and
scores of radio shows including Coast to Coast AM, Sean Hannity,
Alan Colmes, Curtis Sliwa, and Bob Grant.
He has Masters degrees in public communications and educa-
tion.
The Cover Photograph
The photograph used on the cover design of this book is a public
domain photo depicting the flying saucer prop from the 1956 classic
motion picture, “Forbidden Planet.”
According to the Los Angeles Times, the “silver saucer is 82

inches in diameter and constructed of wood, steel and fiberglass and,
according to the Profiles in History auction house, it is ‘a marvel of
1950s engineering.’”
The Times reported, “The miniature was the chief prop used
to create the memorable screen images of United Planets Cruiser C-
57D in the landmark sci-fi film.”

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Manufactured in the United States of America.

2. How the Survey for this Thesis

3. How this Thesis is Written 13

4. The Raw Results (Without Analysis

a. What do People Know

About the Author 159

Discovering the Profile of the

research. Although I had comprised a questionnaire, I had no real

author Tom Carey, and two disbelievers, well-known skeptic Joe

by the United States government.

intelligent life elsewhere in the universe, but who reject Roswell on

the profile of the Roswell believer?

How the Survey for this

percentages were continually updated. The total number of re-

city residents may be more likely to go on craigslist.org than

How this Thesis is Written

The Raw Results

The total raw results to the survey, without crosstabbing the

What Do People Know About Roswell?

Only 6.5 percent of all respondents stated that they knew

finding, of course, will be distinguishing the extent a person believes

Extraterrestrials, Religious Commitment and

On the more general question as to whether or not respondents

a difference between self-described religious persons and those

Conspiracy Theories and Alien Contact

In an attempt to gauge any connection between those who

Another 15.1 percent answered “almost certainly.” Therefore,

Only 5.5 percent of respondents say that they themselves have

Religious Beliefs, Geography, Politics, Age and

Without regard to level of commitment, the most common

lowest percentage (13.9 percent).

themselves as Democrats, while 33.3 percent identified as Repub-

Cover-Ups, Popular Culture, and the Paranormal

As could probably be predicted, fully 80 percent of respondents

were not interested in these topics.

several books about the case. He is the original civilian investigator

ITEM: Those who know very much about Roswell are

ITEM: Those who know very much about the Roswell

Survey results show that there is indeed a correlation between

Roswell believe Roswell is unlikely or did not happen at all.

Knowledge of the Roswell Incident

Know Very Know More Know Know Only Know

Do Not Believe in Roswell

story because they find it so interesting? Or does the knowledge

interesting findings and probably the most crucial in order to really

ITEM: Those who base their opinion of Roswell on their

ITEM: Those who believe Roswell are two and a half

One of the important questions in this analysis is whether or not

simply out of a strong desire to believe. The question is so pertinent

Since 67 percent of total respondents believe Roswell is at least

Pre-Conceived Notions or Specific Facts

Believe in Do Not Believe

Base Opinion of Roswell on Pre-Conceived Notions

Base Opinion of Roswell on the Specific Facts of the Case

particular hypothesis, then I think people can do a pretty good job in

ITEM: Those who believe in Roswell are more than

A separate question was asked, “Are you open to the possibil-

Convinced by an Expert's Argument

Yes, I Could be Convinced by an Expert's Argument About Roswell