Q EF ERROR MAE Measn squared error

1 200
2 250
3 175 225 -50 50 2500
4 186 212.5 -26.5 26.5 702.25
5 225 180.5 44.5 44.5 1960.25
6 285 205.5 79.5 79.5 6320.25
7 305 255 50 50 2500
8 190 295 -105 105 11025
59.25 4167.95833333333
Moving Average 3 ( 3 previous valeues take the averagw Error MAE 3
Moving Average for the third period

Mean absolute error to evaluate the perormance

208.3
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (ALPHA 0.1) EROR
200 0
200 50
205 -30
202 -16
200.4 24.6
202.86 82.14
211.074 93.926
220.467 30.4666
40.8916
Quarter (x) Sales(y) x square xy Y(PREDICITIONS ERROR
1 600 1 600 801.2821 -201.2821
2 1550 4 3100 1150.897
3 1500 9 4500
4 1500 16 6000
5 2400 25 12000
6 3100 36 18600
7 2600 49 18200
8 2900 64 23200
9 3800 81 34200
10 4500 100 45000
11 4000 121 44000
12 4900 144 58800
x average 6.5 650 268200
y average 2779.167
B
B1 359.6
B0 FIND THE AVERAGE OF Y ===441.6 441.6
N=12
PREDICTIONS(NXT PERIOD)
13 5116.4
14 5476.282
15 5835.897
16 6195.513
MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR

AVERAGE OF MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR 296.15

Quarter (x) Sales(y) Quarter (x)Sales(y)
1 600 1 600
2 1550 2 1550
3 1500 3 1500
4 1500 4 1500
5 2400 5 2400
6 3100 6 3100
7 2600 7 2600
8 2900 8 2900
9 3800 9 3800
10 4500 10 4500
11 4000 11 4000
12 4900 12 4900
13
14
15
16
B0

PREDICTIONS(NXT PERIOD)
13
14
15
16
YEAR PERIOD(X) Quarter Sales(y) AVERAGE OF THE SAME QUARTER OF EACH YEAR SEASONAL INDEX
1 1 1 600 2266.6 0.815573
1 2 2 1550 3050 1.097458
1 3 3 1500 2700 0.97152
1 4 4 1500 3100 1.115449
2 5 1 2400 2779.15
2 6 2 3100
2 7 3 2600
2 8 4 2900
3 9 1 3800
3 10 2 4500
3 11 3 4000
3 12 4 4900 #DIV/0!
SEASONAL INDEX DESEASONALISED SEASONAL INDEX/FACTOR
735.679
1412.355