Professional Documents
Culture Documents
T. INDUSTRI / V
TASK I Of PPIC
1). Forecasting Demand with Simple Moving Average based on 3 week and 9 week.
2). Forecasting Demand with Weight Moving Average based on 5 and 6 Month
3). A firm's sales for a product line during the 12 Quarters of the past three years were as follows :
QUARTER SALES
1 602
2 1550
3 1500
4 1500
5 2400
6 3100
7 2600
8 2900
9 3800
10 4500
11 4000
12 4900
a). Plot Data
6000
5000
4000
QUARTER
SALES
3000
2000
1000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
The
Indeks Seasonal
Year
Q 1 2 3 Avg Factor
1 602 2400 3800 2,267.3 0.816
2 1550 3100 4500 3,050 1.097
3 1500 2600 4000 2,700 0.971
4 1500 2900 4900 3,100 1.115
Average 2,779.3
A B A/B
PERIODE QUARTER SALES FACTOR DESEAS LINEAR
1 1 602 0.816 737.7
2 2 1550 1.097 1,412.9
3 3 1500 0.971 1,544.8
4 4 1500 1.115 1,345.3
5 1 2400 0.816 2,941.2
6 2 3100 1.097 2,825.9
7 3 2600 0.971 2,677.7
8 4 2900 1.115 2,600.9
9 1 3800 0.816 4,656.9
10 2 4500 1.097 4,102.1
11 3 4000 0.971 4,119.5
12 4 4900 1.115 4,394.6
A B A/B
PERIODE QUARTER SALES FACTOR DESEAS LINEAR FACTOR FORECAST
1 1 602 0.816 737.7
2 2 1550 1.097 1,412.9
3 3 1500 0.971 1,544.8
4 4 1500 1.115 1,345.3
5 1 2400 0.816 2,941.2
6 2 3100 1.097 2,825.9
7 3 2600 0.971 2,677.7
8 4 2900 1.115 2,600.9
9 1 3800 0.816 4,656.9
10 2 4500 1.097 4,102.1
11 3 4000 0.971 4,119.5
12 4 4900 1.115 4,394.6
13
14
15
16
4). Forecast Demand with Simple Exponential Smothing with ∂ = 0.2 and 0.5
a).
FORECAST
MONTH DEMAND
∂ = 0.2 ∂ = 0.5
January 100 82 82
February 94 85.60 91.00
March 106 87.28 92.50
April 80 91.02 99.25
May 68 88.82 89.63
June 94 84.66 78.81
b).
{1} ∂ = 0.2
MAD = ( 1/n )∑ | ei |
= (1/5)*(86.31)
= 17.26
{2} ∂ = 0.5
MAD = ( 1/n )∑ | ei |
= (1/5)*(90.57)
= 18.11