Actual

Week Demand
1 800
2 1400
3 1000
4 1500
5 1500
6 1300
7 1800
8 1700
9 1300
10 1700
11 1600
12 1500
13 2300
14 2300
15 2000
16 1750
17 1750
18 2250
19 1350
20 1900
21 2500
22 2600
23 2650
24 2100
25 2150
26 2800
27 2875
28 2300
29 2350
30 2100
 3-Period 9-Period
Actual Moving Moving
Week Demand Average Average
1 800
2 1400
3 1000
4 1500 767
5 1500 1000
6 1300 1033
7 1800 1433
8 1700 1533
9 1300 1600
10 1700 1600 1267
11 1600 1567 1367
12 1500 1533 1389
13 2300 1600 1544
14 2300 1800 1633
15 2000 2033 1722
16 1750 1600 1600
17 1750 1417 1594
18 2250 1233 1600
19 1350 1917 1706
20 1900 1400 1539
21 2500 1450 1572
22 2600 1533 1683
23 2650 2333 1717
24 2100 2583 1756
25 2150 2450 1967
26 2800 2300 2011
27 2875 2350 2128
28 2300 2608 2197
29 2350 2658 2431
30 2100 2508 2481
 Simple Moving Average

Actual Demand 3-Period Moving Average 9-Period Moving Average

3000

2500

2000
Values

1500

1000

500

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Week
e

30 35
 Demand Squared Absolute
Period t Dt Forecast Ft Error Et Error Errror At % Error
0
1 2,024.0
2 2,076.0
3 1,992.0
4 2,075.0
5 2,070.0
6 2,046.0
7 2,027.0
8 1,972.0
9 1,912.0
10 1,985.0
2,017.9

α= 0.05
 Dataset_3

Quarterly Demand for Tahoe Salt

Period Demand
Year, Qtr t Dt
01,2 1 8,000
01,3 2 13,000
01,4 3 23,000
02,1 4 34,000
02,2 5 10,000
02,3 6 18,000
02,4 7 23,000
03,1 8 38,000
03,2 9 12,000
03,3 10 13,000
03,4 11 32,000
04,1 12 41,000

Quarterly Demand at Tahoe Salt

45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
Demand

25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
01,2 01,3 01,4 02,1 02,2 02,3 02,4 03,1 03,2 03,3 03,4 04,1

Year, Quarter
 Moving Avg

Absolute
Period Demand Forecast Error Error
t Dt Ft Et At % Error MAPEt
1 8,000
2 13,000
3 23,000
4 34,000
5 10,000
6 18,000
7 23,000
8 38,000
9 12,000
10 13,000
11 32,000
12 41,000
13
14
15
16

45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000 De
25,000 man
20,000 d
15,000 Dt
10,000
5,000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Tahoe Salt Forecasts Using Four-Period Moving Average

 Exp Smoo

Demand Absolute Error

Period t Dt Forecast Ft Error Et At MAPEt
0
1 8,000
2 13,000
3 23,000
4 34,000
5 10,000
6 18,000
7 23,000
8 38,000
9 12,000
10 13,000
11 32,000
12 41,000

45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000 Demand
20,000 Forecast
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Tahoe Salt Forecasts Using Simple Exponential Smoothing

 Holt

Absolute Error
Period t Demand Dt Forecast Ft Trend Tt FITt Error Et At % Error MAPEt
0
1 8,000
2 13,000
3 23,000
4 34,000
5 10,000
6 18,000
7 23,000
8 38,000
9 12,000
10 13,000
11 32,000
12 41,000

α
β

45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000 Demand
20,000 Forecast
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
20,000 Forecast
15,000
10,000
5,000
Holt
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 Deseasonalized
Demand Average of the Seasonal Deseasonalized Forecasted
Period t Dt Same Quarter Factor Demand Demand
0
1 8,000
2 13,000
3 23,000
4 34,000
5 10,000
6 18,000
7 23,000
8 38,000
9 12,000
10 13,000
11 32,000
12 41,000

Overall Average

REGRESSION
A
B
Reseasonalized
Forecasted Absolute
Demand Error At MAPEt TSt
Forecast Errors for Tahoe Salt Forecasting

Forecasting Method MAD MAPE(%)

Four-period moving average
Simple exponential smoothing
Holt's model
Regression
 Deseason.
Period Quarter Demand Qtr Avg SF Demand
1I 600
2 II 1550
3 III 1500
4 IV 1500
5I 2400
6 II 3100
7 III 2600
8 IV 2900
9I 3800
10 II 4500
11 III 4000
12 IV 4900

Overall
Average
Deseason. Reseason.
Forecast Forecast Error Abs Err APE

MAPE
A
B