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The Drama of International Relations - A South China Sea Simulation1
The Drama of International Relations - A South China Sea Simulation1
On Tuesday April 10, 2012, the BRP Gregorio del Pilar, a Philippines naval cutter,
intercepted eight Chinese fishing vessels on the Scarborough reef in the South
China Sea. Upon boarding the ships, the naval officers found a large quantity of
illegally harvested corals, giant clams, and sharks. Before the Chinese sailors
could be arrested, two Chinese naval vessels placed themselves between the fish-
ermen and the Philippines navy. The ensuing stand-off saw a rapid escalation of
diplomatic claim and counterclaim as well as military and social tensions
between the two countries and other interested states (the United States, in par-
ticular). While the Chinese vessels—along with their illegal catches—were even-
tually allowed to leave the area, the overarching problem of competing
sovereign claims in the South China Sea remained unaddressed.
1
This research was partly supported by a City University of Hong Kong Teaching Development Grant—Perceiving
Pseudo-reality: The Utility of Simulations, Project Number: 6000403. We are grateful to the three referees for their help-
ful comments. For any further information, please email ndthomas@cityu.edu.hk.
[Corrections added November 14, 2014 after original online publication. Grammatical changes have been made
to this article to improve clarity.]
Kempston, Tanya and Nicholas Thomas. (2014) The Drama of International Relations: A South China Sea
Simulation. International Studies Perspectives, doi: 10.1111/insp.12045
Ó 2013 International Studies Association
460 The Drama of International Relations
The April incident was by no means an isolated one for the South China Sea. In
the 6 months prior to the April confrontation, there had been numerous
diplomatic, military, and social confrontations between China and the South-East
Asia claimant states, usually Vietnam and the Philippines. Indeed, since the killing
of 70 Vietnamese sailors by Chinese forces in 1988, it is rare for a single year to go
by without some skirmish in the region. Complicating these tensions is the fact
that Japan, South Korea, Taiwan as well as China all receive a major portion of
their trade and energy supplies through this sea. Further complicating this issue is
the renewed presence of the United States in Asia and the importance it places on
an international solution to the sovereignty problem, diametrically opposite to the
bilateral-level solution that China seeks. In a region that is pursuing deeper inte-
responding to the complexities of the situation with which they are dealing. For
example, students who may have difficulties in fully assessing the risks of a rec-
ommended course of action can be both challenged and assisted by peers within
the group to more fully examine the implications of their recommendation. This
interaction of co-equals, or contingent scaffolding (Lantolf 2000), enables simula-
tion to be located as a learning strategy within the socioconstructivist tradition of
learning. The result of these types of activities is a better learning environment
for the students—one where their “metacognitive abilities, their capacity to apply
newly acquired skills and knowledge to real-life simulations, and the ability to
become self-directed learners” are enhanced (Boggs, Mickel and Holtom
2007:833).
International law fails to offer a clear solution to this problem (Scott 2012). As
Rahmen and Tsamenyi note, “the inconsistent perspectives and interpretations
of the law of the sea held by both littoral and user states ensure that the UN
Convention on the Law of the Sea (LOS Convention) [UNCLOS] is an inade-
quate basis for the establishment of [a] stable maritime regime” (2010:315–316).
ASEAN has also held meetings and issued Codes of Conduct on the South China
Sea issue, but these have all had a relatively limited policy impact. Complicating
the situation is the fact that all parties need to agree to binding arbitration to
resolve their claims, yet not all states have agreed to do so (most notably,
China). Given that the priorities of the states involved (in terms of resource
acquisition, access to sea lanes, and maintaining territorial integrity) are as
of this paper was to develop students’ awareness both of the general problem as
well as the country perspective. In addition, the students were required to collect
10 documents (briefing papers, press releases, think-tank studies) from their
country. It was stressed that these documents should reflect their chosen coun-
try’s real-world position on the South China Sea. These documents and the final
position paper were then uploaded to a common folder on Blackboard. Between
Week 6 (when the documents were submitted) and Week 11 (when the simula-
tion formally commenced), all groups were encouraged to read the other teams’
outputs, so that they could be well prepared for the exercise.
During Weeks 8–10, students were also provided with bundles of real news
reports from the preceding week on the South China Sea disputes. Again, it was
Simulation Exercise
The simulation is designed to be completed in two 3-hour lecture periods,
although the open-ended nature of the exercise allowed for a longer period of
time if needed. As the simulation was run over two weeks, students were
encouraged to use the intervening time to develop alliances or to further
3
Once the simulation began, the students better understood the utility of these pre-simulation documents. Dur-
ing the debriefing session and in the feedback questionnaire, students suggested that there should be “more mate-
rials from web-sites or newspapers before the simulation exercise.”
T ANYA K EM PSTON AND N IC HOLAS T HOMAS 465
The Chinese government has reminded the international community that the
accident has happened in Chinese territorial waters and it is the responsibility of
China to render assistance.
The Singaporean and Vietnamese governments are calling on the Chinese gov-
ernment to supply any assistance and to allow access for consular officials.
Philippines President Aquino called for international help, while urging his coun-
trymen to remain calm.
At the same time as this broadcast, the eight teams are provided with their first
set of public/secret information briefs. Reflecting this type of scenario, the infor-
mation contained in the briefs is asymmetrically provided with the main players
given more complete information, while the countries peripheral to the immedi-
ate event are given less information. However, countries that—in the real
world—are more likely to have better information on their neighbors were simi-
larly provided with equivalent levels of information in the simulation. For exam-
ple, Malaysia and Singapore were often better informed on each other’s issues
than—by contrast—Japan and Indonesia. This asymmetry was also reflected in
the objectives provided to each of the teams. While most of the teams were
required to find a multilateral or bilateral solution to the problem, two teams
(Singapore and the United States) were also required to undertake a recovery
operation of a covert listening post that was placed onboard the oil platform
and which may or may not have been responsible for the fire. In the second ses-
sion, Malaysia was also given the additional task of forging an ASEAN consensus
on the crisis.
4
Given the uneven number of students in the class (31), the group playing Japan only had three members with
the Trade and Foreign Affairs portfolios being merged into one. That was a result of classroom discussions as to
which group would have fewer members rather than any preconceived decision.
466 The Drama of International Relations
Evaluation
Observations
The simulation ran largely according to expectations. The combination of pre-
simulation exercises and lectures meant that students were generally well
informed of the situation in the South China Sea and the roles of regional states
and institutions in developing possible solutions. The time lag between these
exercises and the simulation also provided us with a deeper assessment of the
students’ strengths and weaknesses, both individually and within their teams.
The findings from this assessment allowed the simulation documents to be
re-edited to allow for a better fit between capabilities and objectives. This
background—along with the regular news broadcasts and information
briefs—successfully scaffolded the negotiation phases: allowing teams to realize
their objectives in creative ways while ensuring that “unreal” possibilities (for
example, Indonesia declaring war on China) did not eventuate.
Although the scaffold generally directed the flow of the simulation, at the
heart of the exercise were the bi- and multilateral negotiations run by the
T ANYA K EM PSTON AND N IC HOLAS T HOMAS 467
students during the two sessions. These negotiations were initially slow to start.
The first broadcast and information release were reviewed by the teams, who
then developed a preliminary strategy, which then led to a flurry of diplomatic
activity. Initially, both the China and United States teams remained apart from
the main negotiations. The United States preferred to work through Singapore,
while China was more passive—wanting other teams to approach them rather
than make the first approaches. The ASEAN states were divided in their negotia-
tions. As expected, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Singapore discussed mutual
strategies as a core group, with Malaysia and Indonesia in more peripheral roles
and adopting more inclusive negotiations to realize their objectives. A similar
tactic was also employed by Japan, although the real-world alliance of Japan and
Debriefing
The debriefing was held in the final week of semester, with a semistructured
feedback session as well as a review questionnaire. The purpose of the debriefing
was twofold: first, it was designed to explore the pedagogical utility of running a
simulation. In particular, we were seeking to understand how the simulation
added value to the intended learning outcomes for this course, especially in
terms of enhancing students’ awareness of contemporary politics and deepening
their awareness of the theoretical models drawn upon during the semester; sec-
ond, in receiving the feedback, to determine whether the simulation should be
retained for future iterations of this class and—if so—how could its utility be
strengthened.
As noted elsewhere, debriefing sessions are an integral aspect of simulation
exercises (Chapin 1998; Lantis 1998; Smythe 2002; Dougherty 2003; Zeff 2003;
Shaw 2004; Asal 2005; Weir and Baranowski 2008). This is especially important
where the structure of the simulation and/or the participants’ individual per-
spectives strengthen an identification with the issue. As Ebner and Efron have
noted, “participants often want to relieve the story, working out their anger, frus-
tration, and sense of accomplishment, while trainers need to focus on analyzing
the dynamics, the tools used, and the skills practiced” (2005:391).
T ANYA K EM PSTON AND N IC HOLAS T HOMAS 469
The debriefing session also allowed students the space to develop more holis-
tic conclusions on the simulation. Rather than simply being concerned with how
their country performed relative to the other teams, the debriefing allowed stu-
dents the space to collectively reflect on the real-world South China Sea situa-
tion, in addition to current Sino-US and Sino-Japanese relations. During the
debriefing, students variously noted the difficulties of balancing domestic and
regional priorities for individual states and how this balance became even more
problematic as the number of states with deeper levels of engagement increased.
Students were also able to use the debriefing to collectively reflect on the theo-
retical models they had been exposed to in the main part of the course. While
no students declared that they deliberately adopted a realist, institutionalist, or
TABLE 1. Post-simulation Survey. Please Score the Following Items on a 1–5 Scale with the Corre-
sponding Weights: 1 (Very Poor/Strongly Disagree), 2 (Poor/Disagree), 3 (Neutral/No Opinion, 4
(Good/Agree), and 5 (Very Good/Strongly Agree)
Question Text
As the results in Table 2 demonstrate, the simulation was well received by the
students—as an enabling mechanism for a deeper appreciation of regional poli-
tics and crises as well as an assessment exercise. The results from questions 1–6
(those focused on the pedagogical value of the simulation) showed a positive cor-
relation between the simulation and the development of students’ knowledge of
regional politics and crises. However, these results also show that more work needs
to be done to deepen the links between scholarship and simulation, particularly
the links between theory and practice. This had already been raised during the
debriefing session. (Some areas where changes might be instigated to address this
shortcoming are discussed below.) Finally, as the results from questions 7–9 high-
lighted, there was strong support from the students for the simulation to be
1 – – 1 15 3 4.10 4 95 19
2 – – 7 11 1 3.68 4 63 19
3 – – 5 11 3 3.89 4 74 19
4 – – 6 7 6 4 4 68 19
5 – 1 6 11 1 3.63 4 63 19
6 – – 3 10 6 4.15 4 84 19
7 – – 1 4 14 4.68 5 95 19
8 – – 2 8 9 4.36 4 89 19
9 – – 1 7 11 4.52 5 95 19
T ANYA K EM PSTON AND N IC HOLAS T HOMAS 471
which were attended by all team members from the relevant countries. The
debriefing session identified these meetings as potentially very useful additions,
if they were more structured events. It was suggested that these meetings be
more restricted to only the team leaders or their representatives. It was further
recommended that sidebar meetings only involving foreign, defense, or trade
ministers should be held at regular intervals during the simulations. It was noted
that such “mini-summits” would not only reflect real-world practices but also
would provide a greater voice for all team members.
Third, the debriefing session yielded useful ideas as to the composition of
the teams. All the teams were comprised of ministerial and presidential/prime
ministerial positions. The briefing documents were tailored to these portfolios
Conclusion
This article charted the implementation of a graduate-level simulation, one
based on real-world tensions and issues. In a globalized world, where the impacts
of crises in distant corners of the world can have a near-immediate impact on
our lives, ensuring that students of IR have a better understanding of the inter-
play between diplomacy and crisis negotiation is an important pedagogical tool.
In the absence of any involvement in actual crises, simulations allow students to
develop an appreciation for the interplay of different actors, objectives, and out-
comes. As Wilkenfield (2002:540) noted, such activities allow us all to “fill in the
gaps in our knowledge and ultimately allow us to generalize beyond our limited
experiential environment.”
472 The Drama of International Relations
provocative escalation of the current crisis and allow the Leahy to continue on
its humanitarian mission.
In related news, there has been a massive surge in support for China’s actions
from its online community, with many calling for more aggressive action to
safeguard Chinese sovereignty. We expect that there will be demonstrations in
support of this action throughout China. There may also be online pledges of
further support given the strength of emotions here over these disputed islands.
We can only wait to see how the authorities in Vietnam and Singapore will
respond to this latest challenge.
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