WP City Risk Edited 12 01 2016 Box394848B PUBLIC

102982
CITY RISK
Public Disclosure Authorized
DIAGNOSTIC
FOR URBAN
RESILIENCE
IN INDONESIA
Iwan Gunawan, Saut Sagala, Suryani Amin, Hoferdy Zawani, Ruby Mangunsong
The World Bank Office Jakarta
Indonesia Stock Exchange Building, Tower II/12-13th Fl.
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav.52-53
Jakarta 12190, Indonesia
This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings,
interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The
World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent.
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as full attribution to this work is given.
Authors:
Iwan Gunawan
Saut Sagala
Suryani Amin
Hoferdy Zawani
Ruby Mangunsong
Contributors : The city of Balikpapan, Makassar, Semarang, Denpasar, Palembang, Yogyakarta, Abigail
C. Baca, Parwoto Tjondro Sugianto, Adjie Pamungkas, Jan Sopaheluwakan, Santo Dewatmoko
Federica Ranghieri, Zoe Elena Trohanis, Yulita Sari Soepardjo, Dini Sari Jalal, Jerry Kurniawan, Nugroho
Nurdikiawan Sunjoyo, Indra Irnawan
Cover photo : Iwan Gunawan

Photo Credit : Iwan Gunawan, Ruby Mangunsong, Hoferdy Zawani, Suryani Amin, Feris Fernanda
Maps, infographic, design & layout : Yohanes Cahyanto Aji, Adhi Wibowo
October 2015
CITY RISK
DIAGNOSTIC
FOR URBAN
RESILIENCE
IN INDONESIA
D
TABLE OF Contents
Foreword 1
1. Urbanization And Disaster And Climate Vulnerabilities In Indonesia 2
2. Framework For Building Urban Resilience 6
3. Rapid Risk Diagnostic as a Step Towards Building Urban Resilience 8
4. Rapid Risk Diagnostic of 6 cities 10

4.1. Balikpapan 12
4.2. Makasar 20
4.3. Palembang 28
4.4. Denpasar 36
4.5. Semarang 44
4.6. Yogyakarta 52
5. Next Steps 60
(Making concrete resilient investment: Winongo Resilient
River Redevelopment Case Study-Yogyakarta)
i
Abbreviations
ACCRN Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network
AMSL Above Mean Sea Level
Bappeda Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah (Local Planning Agency)
BLH Badan Lingkungan Hidup (Environmental Agency)
BMKG Badan Meteorologi dan Geofisika (Agency for Meteorology and Climatology)
BNPB Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (National Disaster Management Agency)
BPBD Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah (Local Disaster Management Agency)
BSB Balikpapan Super Block
CBD Central Business District
CPI Center Point of Indonesia
DCR Disaster and Climate Risk
DSDP Denpasar Sewerage Development Project
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GIS Geographic Information System
GRDP Gross Regional Domestic Product
HDI Human Development Index
NGO Non-Government Organization
ND Neighborhood Development
Pusdalops Pusat Pengendalian Operasi (Disaster Command Center)
PVMBG Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (Center of Volcanology and
Geological Hazard Mitigation)
RTBL Rencana Tata Bangunan dan Lingkungan (Neighborhood Development Plan)
RTRW Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah (Spatial Plan)
ii
Foreword
In 2012, the World Bank initiated the Building Urban Resilience in East Asia program, aimed
at increasing the resilience of cities to disasters and the impact of climate change by using a
risk-based approach to making public investment decisions. The objective is to demonstrate
a scalable methodology and practical tools for risk assessment that can be used for city-level
investment decisions. As part of this program, a book entitled “Building Urban Resilience:
Principles, Tools and Practice” was published in 2013, providing a framework to implement
urban resilience activities. With the support from East Asia Infrastructure for Growth (EAIG),
a regional trust fund supported by the Australian Government, an activity was conducted to
experiment with the implementation of this framework in Indonesia.
This activity started with engaging selected cities that have reasonable complexity and are
experiencing significant growth. The next step involved conversations about disaster and
climate risks confronting the cities and the options that they could consider in building
resilience. The result of this experiment is presented in this book. It is hoped that this will be
the first in a series of publications on the development and adaptation of principles, tools and
practices for urban resilience in the Indonesian context.
The book begins with two chapters on the disaster and climate vulnerabilities in the context
of Indonesian cities, and the basic framework developed by the World Bank Building Urban
Resilience in East Asia program. The subsequent two chapters describe the Rapid Risk
Diagnostic as the first step in the urban resilience engagement, and the summary of the
diagnostic findings in selected Indonesian cities. The final chapter provides a glimpse of how
options to invest in resilience can be materialized in practice as part of a city’s development.
Presented with many visuals, maps and illustrations, we hope the book will be enjoyable and
informative for urban development practitioners.
1
1. URBANIZATION AND DISASTER
AND CLIMATE VULNERABILITIES
IN INDONESIA
With an average annual urbanization rate estimated at 4.1% between

2000 and 2010, Indonesia is one of the most urbanized countries in Asia.
Its urban population, 54% in 2010, is projected to reach 68% by 2025.
Rapid urbanization leads to dense settlements and a concentration of
critical infrastructure. It is estimated that at least 110 million people in
60 Indonesian cities are regularly exposed to natural hazards, including
tsunamis, earthquakes, floods, as well as disasters related to climate
change.
Urbanization offers opportunities for Indonesia, potentially boosting

regional economic growth and creating vibrant cities and metropolitan
areas. Urbanization and the agglomeration economies that it generates
are an important element in Indonesia‘s development as a middle-
income country. If managed properly, urbanization can generate positive
returns that create opportunities for economic growth, poverty reduction
and shared prosperity.
City management may lack core competencies to manage sustainable

urbanization, as indicated by the many Indonesian cities developing
without a disaster risk perspective. This can lead to increasing
occurences of annual disasters and a higher than average death toll of
urban residents.
In addition, Indonesia’s cities’ resilience to natural disasters has been

weakened by the rapid construction of physical assets in urban areas
amid weak enforcement of building codes and zoning regulations.
Indonesia’s fast-paced, and not always well-planned, construction of
physical assets has seen demand for urban housing and commercial
facilities multiply over the past decade. Since weak enforcement of
spatial planning regulations are common, real estate and construction
activities are prone to deliver structures of substandard quality.
2
URBANIZATION IN INDONESIA
4.1% 54% 68%

AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION SHARE PROJECTED TO
RATE IN 2010 QUICKLY REACH
BETWEEN 2000-2010 PROJECTION BY 2025
Lack of Urban
Not Always Well Ecosystem Urbanized Country in Asia
Planned Build Up
CURENCES
OC
D
AR U
Potentially
Z
RB
HA
AN
boosting
IZAT
Rapid Demand regional
URBAN
ION
economic
ANGE
for Urban RESILIENCE

Housing and growth
CH
AG
Commercial
TE
LO
A M
M ER
CIL A TI
ON
Rising income
Rapid physical
construction
Creating vibrant
cities and
metropolitan areas
Figure 1. Urbanization, Disaster and Climate Vulnerability , and Resilience
3
Data on disaster occurrence and impact on housing show that in
Percentage of
the past decade the more urban areas of Indonesia have become
Reconstruction Budget
more vulnerable to natural disasters. Figure 2 shows a comparison
for Provinces (2011)
of the number of disaster-impacted buildings and houses over the
past two decades. Disaster impact on housing is a useful proxy for Total Budget
the degree of vulnerability of urbanized areas. In the past decade IDR 3.9 Trillions
alone, between 20 and 50 percent of post disaster reconstruction
budgets have been spent on housing. Statistics also show that the
proportion of post disaster budget in 2011 was concentrated in
urban provinces. This suggests that many assets have not been built
to appropriate standards in the first place.
6%
NON URBAN
PROVINCES
28%
HIGHLY URBANIZED
PROVINCES
66%
Figure 2. Comparison of disaster-impacted buildings and houses over MODERATELY URBANIZED
the past two decades. PROVINCES
High proportion of
housing reconstruction
budget spent on urban
areas
4
5
2. FRAMEWORK fOR
BUILDING URBAN RESILIENCE
The rapid expansion of built-up urban areas provides an opportunity to
develop and manage new settlements in a way that incorporate resilience
into urban planning. The aftermath of a natural disaster can prompt
decision-makers to push through with corrective and preventive action.
Resilience goes beyond risk mitigation measures. It increases preparedness
and the capacity to respond to disaster and swiftly recover from its
impact. However, this approach is not yet seen as a part of everyday
urban development, medium- and long-term investment planning, urban
governance, and risk management.
The World Bank in East Asia and the Pacific has compiled a set of tools
to help cities and rapidly growing urban areas to embark on urban
resilience investment. The tools comprise of three major building blocks:
1) Assessment and Diagnostic; 2) Resilience Measures; and 3) Enabling
Framework. Each building block consists of distinct components as
visualized in Figure 3, below.
RESILIENCE MEASURES
URBAN ECOSYSTEM
ASSESSMENT
MANAGEMENT
& DIAGNOSTIC
UPGRADING
URBAN
• Risk Assessment
• Socio-economic cost
benefit analysis
RISK SENSITIVE
LAND USE
ENABLING FRAMEWORKS
• Community participation and collaboration
• Geospatial Information and Analytics
• Recognition of residual risks and options for mitigation measures
• Disaster Risk Management Framework
• Early warning system
• Risk and Resilience Investment Financing
Figure 3. Building Blocks of Urban Resilience.

6
As urban space is a dynamic system with constant changes, telecommunications and power lines. This
risk assessment and diagnostic must become part of the may also include retrofitting assets such
day-to-day planning system and spatial management. as public buildings, private dwellings, and
Recognizing that development does not operate in an rearranging settlement layouts to enforce
empty space, building resilience can be achieved through zoning.
urban upgrading (i.e., ‘retrofitting’ existing systems to 3. Managing and restoring key ecosystem
be more resilient to particular risks), and/or managing elements and services, such as water
urban space as a human ecosystem, preserving its catchment and retention, green space,
interlinked and fragile components. Finally, to ensure that natural habitats; and maintaining the
resilience building can become an integral part of urban connectivity as well as functioning of this
management, a Disaster Risk Management framework natural system.
must be in place, and includes institutions, geospatial
information, and financing. In practice, city managers may not have the
above three activities in the right sequence.
This Urban Resilience framework outlines three major For example, a city may complete its land
components, namely: use planning process without incorporating
risk information or undertaking investment
1. Risk sensitive land use planning. This could range
on drainage. The following year that city may
from revising land use plans to take into account the
experience major flooding. The normal cycle
results of risk assessment, detailed land use zoning
for updating the land use plan may not come
in targeted development areas based on hazard
in 2 years. In such instances, the city needs to
micro zonation, and other instruments governing site
undertake special measures to address the
allocation and control.
flooding risk and incorporate them into their
2. Urban upgrading to apply zoning plans and regula- ongoing infrastructure development.
tions to bring existing infrastructure and assets to
resilient standards. This may include improving the
capacity and structural strength of key infrastructure,
such as drainage, roads and bridges, embankments,
7
3. RAPID RISK Diagnostic AS A STEP
TOWARD BUILDING URBAN RESILIENCE
To initiate urban resilience building efforts, risk assessment needs to be

carried out. However, since most urban areas develop naturally, high
resolution data -- instrumental for conducting risk assessment --are not
usually readily available. At the same time, cities continue to grow, adding
new areas or modifying existing ones. This potentially introduces new risks
and vulnerabilities.
In practice, most city governments and their residents are quite familiar with the
occurrences of low impact and high frequency events, like floods, landslides, or
even small earthquakes. These events are considered ‘normal’, yet their causes
and impact are not often observed properly. As the city grows, these events
become exacerbated over time and their impact become more complex to
analyze.
Rapid risk diagnostic can be used to initiate a conversation between city
officials and stakeholders on disaster and climate risks, their general
spatial distribution, and how they influence the city’s growth pattern and
trends. Using available low resolution data such as atlases, records of events
as remembered by residents or information reports, and news on investment
developments, specific geographic areas around natural hazards and
investment locations can be easily pinpointed. Such rudimentary but targeted
diagnosis, just like a general physician diagnosing illness symptoms, may
lead to city managers having a clearer picture of issues and locations to focus
on. More detailed and thorough risk assessments can then be conducted in
smaller geographic areas where generating new and higher resolution data
will be more manageable and less costly. Figure 4 illustrates the concept of risk
diagnostic as a conversation starter for more detailed risk assessment.
Figure 4. City Rapid Risk Diagnostic leading to Detailed Assessment.
8
The diagnostic applies a simple process of compiling existing data on: (i) the cities’ overall spatial structure,
and their growth trends and directions; (ii) the pattern of disaster occurrence and the main affected areas;
and (iii) an understanding of major urban investments being undertaken.
• Land consolidation
• Ecosystem restoration
• Mitigating infrastructure
• Disaster management system
• (micro) hazard zoning • Early warning system
• New risk-based RTRW • Blue and green open spaces
• Reducing vulnerabilities
• Community empowerment
Figure 5. Flow of city rapid risk diagnostic.
Development creates a dynamic and changing spatial structure, and influences the pattern and direction
of growth. Development also increases vulnerability to the environment and society. Disaster occurs
in vulnerable locations. With the knowledge of a city’s risk profile and resilience options, vulnerable
investments, are addressed to reduce disaster risk, decrease vulnerability, and improve spatial structure.
The rapid risk diagnostic preparess a city’s risk profile, by providing a storyline of each city in terms of location,
concentration of risks and urban investment activities, and options for integrating resilience into those on-
going urban investments. As the concept of urban resilience is relatively new, it is important that the risk
profile provide visual illustration of how a resilient city could physically look like. More importantly the city risk
profile also provide a list of measures that can be undertaken to boost resilience along the two previously-
described pillars of urban upgrading and ecosystem management/restoration.
9
4. RAPID RISK
DIAGNOSTICS of
6 cities
Rapid risk diagnostics have been carried out in Indonesia
in six medium and large cities as a pilot project. The six
cities are: Balikpapan, Makassar, Palembang, Denpasar,
Semarang, and Yogyakarta.
Balikpapan
Palembang
Makassar
Semarang
Yogyakarta
Denpasar
Figure 6. Index map of pilot cities
The aim of this disaster and climate profiling is three-

fold. First, to identify the key locations and urban
infrastructure to be prioritized in order to create
urban resilience. Second, to assess the prospects of
incorporating risk reduction in urban development
planning. Third, to provide strategy options for building
urban resilience. The strategy options focus on three
instruments:
(i) risk-based land use and infrastructure investment
planning; (ii) urban ecosystem management; and (iii)
urban infrastructure upgrading for resilience.
The six cities selected to pilot the diagnostic are
combination of metropolitan and large cities in
Indonesia. This type of city is most at risk from disaster
and climate change due to their complex system and
density. They face growing issues which drive risks.
These cities experience hazard events that adversely
affect populations.
10
11
4.1. BALIKPAPAN RISK PROFILE
Balikpapan is a seaport city located on the east coast of
Spatial
Structure
Borneo Island in East Kalimantan Province. The location
makes the city a strategic hub for fisheries and tourism. It
34,018 Ha
Pattern is also a resource-rich region, known for its abundance of COVERING AREA
petroleum and gas. (Bappeda, 2012)
270C 555-973 mm/

month 51,66% 42.33%
Average Temp. Rainfall Intensity (20,090.57 Ha) (21,305.57 Ha)
(Bappeda, 2012) (BMKG, 2013) Topography are Slope between
Hilly area 15%-40%
555,579 1,32% 4.07% 1,107.85 people/

km 2
Population Growth Rate Poverty Rate Population density

(BPS, 2012) (BPS, 2012) (BPS, 2012)
Most of Balikpapan’s population live in Balikpapan Tengah sub-district – the center of

the city. The sub-district has more than 8,900 people per square kilometer, or about 8
times more than the population density of all of Balikpapan.
Pattern and Unsurprisingly, capital-intensive urban developments are taking place, including
Direction of freeway development, airport expansion, coastal road development, and industrial park
Growth development. New settlements continue to expand rapidly to the north and eastern
coast sections of Balikpapan. Development on the west coast is also intensifying,
particularly for industrial activities.
12
CATCHMENT AREA
32 River Basin
(Bappeda, 2012)
1,545 Ha
(78,307,413m3 Capacity)
of flood retention structure/
small dam known as Bendali
Kabupaten Kutai
Kartanegara
West Balikpapan
East Balikpapan
Central Business District North Balikpapan
Sub-Central Business District
Sub-District Population Center

Sub-Central Business District with
Growing Trends
Existing Growth Trends
Emerging Growth Trends

South Balikpapan
Sepinggan Airport Expansion Zone
ay
Central Balikpapan
B
Makassar Strait
an
pap
Kariangau Industrial Expansion Zone

ik
Bal
Reclamation Expansion Zone
% LAND USE IN NON-BUILT UP AREAS

10.96% Balikpapan Spatial Plan (Bappeda, 2012)
(5,517.36 Ha)
Built up area Protected Area 68.95%
Agriculture 17.1%
The existing built up area (5,517.36 ha or 10.96%) Settlement 6.25%
stretches along the south coast of Balikpapan Industry 3.13%
(Bappeda, 2012), comprising of settlements, Transportation & Infrastructure 1.17%
Public Facilities 1%
industrial activities, commercial activities, and Trade & Service 0.84%
public buildings. Others 1.56%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
13
Pattern of Overall, the city is prone to four types of hazards: flood,
Disaster
Occurrences
landslide, fire, and drought. The city will also potentially be
impacted from a rise in sea levels, as Kalimantan coastal areas
have experienced an upward trend of sea level. This could
0.755 cm/
year
upward trend
exacerbate flooding, intensify coastal erosion, changes in of sea level
deposition, and salt intrusion in groundwater and/or river water.
Floods affecting the river basin and lowland

34%
200
84,9 Ha
area, particularly during rainy season, are due 150
IO
N)
Area that T
to high rainfall intensity and poor drainage 100
UN
DA
always (IN CY) 78
systems. One of the areas most impacted is UEN
flooded 50 25,84 Ha FRE
Q
the business district along MT Haryono Street. (
6
0
2012 2013
Fires occur mostly in areas with higher

population density. Fires are becoming more 30-45 triggers
frequent annually. In addition to residential Minute to forest fire
fires, other sources of fire hazards are coal-bed, reach the The most risky locations
as most forest areas in the city have coal-bed scene are in the northern part
underneath, and hence are prone to fire.
High landslide risks are scattered in the areas of Batu Ampar, Damai, Gunung Bahagia,
Gunung Samarinda, Gunung Sari Ilir, Karang Joang, Kariangau, Klandasan Ulu, Lamaru,
Sepinggan, Teritip and Telaga Sari (BLH, 2012). In 2013, a landslide occurred on Soekarno
Hatta Street (Bappeda, 2013). The increasing number of landslide events every year is
quite alarming.
1,318.66 Ha 29,657 Ha 20,028.94 Ha 85%

high risk area MEDIUM risk LOW risk area red-yellow
area podzolic soil*
*The hills and valleys in the city of Balikpapan are dominated by red-yellow podzolic soils. This condition
makes the city of Balikpapan prone to landslide during the rainy season.
14
The development in Balikpapan is concentrated in southern
part of the city and so is the population. The denser and
West coast industrial estate more developed areas presented in darker colors are the
development, including land areas prone to disasters, particularly fires and floods. These
reclamation, will further affect areas are where most of the city’s economic activities take
the water quality and coastal place and where strategic infrastructure is located.
ecosystem (e.g. declining
coverage of natural mangrove Settlement expansion to
forest). the northern part of the
city increased the risk of
floods and landslides in the
downstream and coastal
areas.
West Balikpapan East Balikpapan

North Balikpapan
Flood
The coastal road
Fire development plan
Penajam Paser Utama and expansion plan of
Landslide District South Balikpapan Sepinggan Airport are
located in the area prone to
ay
Medium Density Central Balikpapan flooding and sea level rise.

B
an
(35-110 person/Ha) Both investments will affect

pap
the natural carrying capacity

ik
High Density
Bal
of the areas and increase risks

(111-273 person/Ha) Makassar Strait of sea level inundation.
The urban poor, who live in slum areas, are more vulnerable to disasters
4,07% due to their lower capacity in performing adaptation and recovery.
OF THE TOTAL The majority of the slums is along the west coast (Balikpapan Bay) and
POPULATION south coast (Makassar Strait), specifically in six villages (Baru Ulu, Baru
(BPS, 2011)
Tengah, Margasari, Klandasan Ulu, Klandasan Ilir, and Gunung Bahagia)
17,425 covering 55.68 ha or 61.12% of all slum areas in the city. Slum areas
also exist in hilly areas (Muara Rapak and Sepinggan village) covering
PEOPLE
24.96 ha or 26.41% of all slums and river basin areas (Mangga Besar
6,022 and Ajiraden river) covering 11.34 ha or 12.47%.
HOUSEHOLDS
15
Kutai Kartanegara
District
West Balikpapan North Balikpapan

East Balikpapan
Penajam Paser Utama

District
South Balikpapan
Flood Control Investment
Bay
Central Balikpapan
Fire Mitigation Plan/Response Path
pana
ikp
Landslide Prevention
Bal
Slum Upgrading
In the medium and long term, the key issues that will dominate 1. flood
Major
Balikpapan are: (i) effective flood control investment; (ii) control
Urban
landslide prevention; and (iii) minimization of the impact of 2. landslide
Investments
industrial and coastal development. The latter is in response to prevention
the Balikpapan Spatial Master Plan which is oriented toward 3. minimization
coastal reclamation, in view of the prospect of the rise in sea INDUSTRIAL
level induced by climate change. AND COASTAL
development
impact
16
For flood control and anticipating the rise in sea levels, Balikpapan can refer to the
lagoon concept in Foster City, California, for the area’s coastal road development plan.
Balikpapan would also benefit from the lessons learned by Brisbane in Australia, which
used backflow prevention infrastructure as part of the integrated drainage system.
Resilience
Options
Risk-based infrastructure investment planning options include continuing investments on

flood control infrastructure and implementing evacuation plans in the event of flooding
or rising sea levels (integration between the new development areas at the coast with
the mainland). Disaster and climate risk information also needs to be strengthened to
support risk-sensitive land use and infrastructure planning.
The involvement of the community and the private sector in urban ecosystem
management is needed for improving greenery in water catchment areas in conserving
mangrove forests. In addition, zoning control and strict permit issuance for landslide and
flood prone areas need to be exercised.
Urban infrastructure upgrading is focused on slum areas. The most essential infrastructure
are: (i) seawalls for protecting coastal areas including vulnerable slums; and (ii) fire
response paths which are developed by clearing and strengthening pathways,
particularly on the west coast of Balikpapan Bay and in the slum areas of Klandasan Ulu.
17
Learning from the success in greenery and with rapid development and increasing
conservation, active involvement of the rainfall intensity. If this is the case, the
private sector in incorporating resilience projected locations for the development
into on-going investments is possible. of Bendali and other drainage facilities
Investments in Balikpapan is quite high, so it as listed in Balikpapan’s Spatial Master
is important to clarify the indirect economic Plan need to be secured immediately.
returns as an incentive. However, it is This is to avoid the conversion of
important to ensure a legal basis for making functions of those critical locations.
mandatory for investors to integrate flood When some designated areas Bendali
control and hazard safety measures in their have been occupied by private use, a
investments. negotiation should be considered to buy
the land with market price.
Balikpapan needs effective measures to
control flooding, particularly in anticipation The new developments along the south
of greater coastal development. Bappeda and east coast requires countermeasures
(2012) has planned to adopt the lagoon or in the rise of sea levels, such as land
seaside lake concept, which will control the elevation and floating construction,
flow of water emitting from the river to the particularly around the coastal road
sea. It will resemble a giant pool 50 meters development areas and Sepinggan
in diameter, located around the Balikpapan airport. Building a sea wall to protect
Super Block (BSB). If the concept is applied, the activities along the south and east
the land reclamation for coastal roads will coast of Balikpapan is one alternative.
orient towards the river sanctuaries. There Furthermore, floating slums in 6
will at least be 3 (three) locations built as (six) villages (Baru Ulu, Baru Tengah,
flood channels. The lagoon concept can Margasari, Klandasan Ulu, Klandasan
also function as tourist destinations, such as Ilir, and Gunung Bahagia) could be
restaurants and other attractive sites. upgraded to reduce the frequency and
severity of flooding, and to transform
In the upper and mid stream areas, them into neighborhood attraction.
Balikpapan has implemented several
countermeasures to prevent flooding
periodically, including river normalization,
drainage system development and
maintenance as well as bendali construction.
Currently, the city is constructing its fourth
bendali that is expected to reduce by 80
percent the flooding of MT Haryono street.
However, instead of declining, flooding has
increased. The provision of such infrastructure
should therefore be accelerated to cope
18
Makassar Strait
19
4.2. Makassar RISK PROFILE
Makassar, the capital city of South Sulawesi Province, is a coastal
Spatial
Structure
Pattern
city strategically located as the gateway to Eastern Indonesia and
a trading hub. The city has substantially developed its coastal 175,77 km 2
areas, including its west and north coasts, where more industrial COVERING AREA
and commercial activities are concentrated. Furthermore, sporadic (Bappeda, 2014)
development also occurs along the main two rivers, Tallo River and
Jeneberang River, jeopardizing the sustainability of conservation
areas along the river basins.
270C 260 mm/

month 0-5% 0 -10 m AMSL
increase from 1993 to Rainfall Intensity Topography
2012 about 0.5 °C (BMKG, 2013)
1,352,136 1,65% 6,330 people/

km 2
Population Growth Rate Population density

(BPS, 2012) (BPS, 2012)
(Bappeda, 2014)
In 2008, Makassar’s Human Development Index (HDI) reached 77.09, then increased to 79.55 in 2012.
The increase of HDI could be a result of the city development. Furthermore, the number of poor have
declined, from 64,477 persons in 2008 to 46,355 persons in 2012, declining further by 2014 to 44,217
persons.
Pattern and Urban development in Makassar originally began in the west coast and has expanded
Direction of to the north and east. According to the master plan, the city is divided into several
Growth development zones:
• The Old Town, mainly commercial activities;
• Panakukkang Area, mainly consists of offices and settlements;
• East Biringkanaya, mainly consists of education facilities;
• North Biringkanaya, consists of industries; and
• Mariso, at the southern of the city and the islands at Makassar Strait, mainly for
tourism.
20
Makassar plans to have
several development District Maros
centers. The centers serve
different land uses and/or
economic activities: industrial,
warehouse, global business
and maritime. Seaport expansion Airport
Expansion
UJUNG TANAH
TALLO
WAJO
OALA
MAKKASAR
UJUNG PANDANG PANAKKUKANG District Maros
MARISO
Central Business District
RAPOCINI
MAMAJANG
MANGGALA
Center Development
TAMALATE
Subdistrict
Prospective Economic
SUNGUMINASA
Zone
Housing
Old Town
District Takalar
Green Zone
KE GOWA / KE GOWA /
TAKALAR TAKALAR
42% % LAND USE

(73,82 km2) (Bappeda, 2012)
Built up area
Between 2011 to 2012, the amount of wet-farm Built Up Area 42%
land has been reduced by 5,316 hectares due to Plantation (Dry Land) 15%
Wet Land 8%
land conversion to settlements and commercial Fishpond 7%
areas. This reflects the city’s economic dynamic, Others 28%
fueled by the industrial and trade sector. 0 10 20 30 40 50
21
Pattern of Makassar is prone to three types of hazards: flood, fire, and strong wind. It is potentially
Disaster also prone to earthquakes, although so far, the frequency and the intensity has been
Occurrences relatively small. Most epicenters have been far from the city. As a coastal city, Makassar is
also prone to the rise in sea levels, affecting particularly the smaller islands that belong to
Makassar’s administration such as Kodingareng, Barrang Lompo, and Barrang Caddi.
2,058
Loss
2,397
(million IDR)
The height of inundation from flooding 47,028
1,488
ranges between 30 and 50 cm, in 19 Building
Damage
1,462 2011
10,879
locations, including the main access road 2012
2013
3,720
Affected
to Sultan Hasanuddin Airport and the toll People
1,115
47,028
road entrance (Tol Reformasi). 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
Fire events have increased over the years, mostly in highly

populated areas. On average, the number of events is 113 per 113 /year
The number
year.
of events
Within the period of 1993 – 2002, the sea level in Makassar Strait
m
rose up to 7.5 cm. By 2050, it is estimated that the sea level increasesea level rise
1.14
in Makassar could reach 1.14 m. The most at risk areas are Tallo, by 2050
Biringkanaya, Mariso, Tamalanrea, and Wajo Subdistricts.
Whirlwind of 50 to 60 kilometers per hour affect residential areas in

Barombong, Tamalate, Manggala, Panakkukang, Tallo, and Biringkanaya
subdistricts.
22
The high-risk zones in Makassar are those located
along the east coast and the city center. The
villages along the coast are vulnerable to the rise
in sea levels, particularly the CPI business district, District Maros
Soekarno-Hatta seaport, and Tallo River estuary. The
areas that are at risk to strong winds and fire are
those in the city center, whereas the areas that are at
risk to flooding are those nearby the estuary of Tallo
River. BIRINGKANAYA Airport
Expansion
The Center Point of

Indonesia (CPI) is a UJUNG TANAH
TAMALANREA
newly developed area in
Makassar. Located along TALLO
the east cost of the city, it
is expected to be a new District Maros
commercial and tourism UJUNG MAKKASAR
PANDANG PANAKKUKANG
spot, next to the already
famous Losari Beach.
This area will feature
residential apartments Development and density in
and waterfront urban Makassar are concentrated on
MARISO
development. the west side of the city along
MAMAJANG
RAPOCINI the coast. High-density areas
MANGGALA are located near the city center
TAMALATE
and along the coast of Makassar
where the old city originated.
SUNGUMINASA Flood Medium Density

(35-110 person/Ha)
District Gowa Fire
High Density
Typhoon (111-273 person/Ha)
Sea Level Rise

District Takalar
Some 11 percent of poor families in this coastal area live in Ujung Tanah
35,097 Sub-district, while 7.1 percent live in Tallo Sub-district and 6.93 percent
HOUSEHOLDS live in Mariso Sub-district. Buloa Village in Tallo Sub-district is where poor
communities are concentrated. They are vulnerable to disaster and climate
risks. The number of households who live in riverbank or tidal areas is 55,915.
58,268
UNIT HOUSE
IN SLUM
23
District Maros
BIRINGKANAYA
Seaport expansion Airport

Expansion
TAMALANREA
UJUNG TANAH
TALLO
WAJO
MAKKASAR
UJUNG PANAKKUKANG District Maros
PANDANG
MARISO
RAPOCINI
MAMAJANG
TAMALATE
Flood Control
Investment
SUNGUMINASA
Fire Mitigation Plan/

Response Path
Urban Upgrading
Reducing Strong
Wind Risk
In the medium and long term, the key measures to reduce risk in 1. flood
Major Makassar are: (i) effective flood control; (ii) fire mitigation; and (iii)
Urban control
minimizing the impact of coastal development caused by land 2. Fire
Investments reclamation. The development along the coasts should anticipate the mitigation
disaster and climate risks, particularly the rise in sea levels. The key through
locations that need attention for resilience investments are Tallo and retrofiting
Jeneberang river basins, as well as the east coast where the Center 3. Sea level
Point of Indonesia (CPI) is located. In addition to those, the area of impact of
Soekarno-Hatta seaport is in an area vulnerable to a rise in sea levels. coastal
development
24
Most of the coastal development area in Makassar is the result of land reclamation, land
readjustment and port facility improvement. Its development had included disaster-
proof infrastructure such as utility tunnels and an earthquake-resistant berth. In addition,
various cutting-edge shared utility systems help this 21st century city, such as district
heating and cooling systems, as well as emergency underground water tanks.
Resilience
Options
The options for risk-based infrastructure investment planning include effective flood
control, by managing development upstream, as well as holistic improvement of
the drainage networks. The area is equipped with secondary and local drainage
systems, a solid waste management system, and water infiltration mechanisms such as
biopore, catchment wells, and rainwater harvesting. All these should be the minimum
requirement to which developers must comply. The municipality can ask the private
sector to build a mini polder in order to improve the quantity of water catchment areas.
Urban ecosystem management measure are needed, such as revitalization of mangrove

forests in coastal areas as well as conserving forests and water catchment areas
upstream in order to reduce sedimentation in the estuaries, particularly Tallo estuary,
which has increased due to high land conversion. Building a number of water retention
ponds in upstream areas of the Tallo catchment should be considered.
Urban infrastructure upgrading is focused on slum areas above water elevated housing
compound in riverbank and tidal prone areas. Slum infrastructure upgrading can be
implemented by adopting the Urban Poor Consortium (UPC) model. The model has
been tried out in several small-scale pilots in other region.
Urban infrastructure upgrading is focused on slum areas. The most essential infrastructure
is the seawall to protect coastal activities, including slums vulnerable to sea level rise.
Fire response paths need to be built by clearing and strengthening pathways in densely
populated slums.
25
Principles of sustainable coastal Makassar needs to limit
development should be mainstreamed development in lowland areas.
in planning regulations. The City Clear and well-defined elevation
Spatial Plan (RTRW) has outlined standards for infrastructure and
strategies to strengthen mitigation reclamation are required to ensure
and adaptation in the coastal areas. the connectivity of drainage
The focused areas are the west coast systems from the mainland to the
(Losari Beach and Centerpoint of lowland. Other measures that will
Indonesia), the north coast (North help include ensuring the continuity
Beach and Untia Beach), and the of river normalization of the three
riverbanks (Jeneberang, Tallo, and main rivers (Jeneberang, Tallo, and
Pampang). Pampang) and improvement of the
urban canal system (pumping canal
The strategies include: of Panampu and Jongaya).
1) Revitalizing the areas through
well-planned, controlled, and limited Makassar should also prioritize
reclamation activities, by complying balancing built-up areas with
with the regulations related to green open space and mangrove
mitigation and adaptation (i.e. forests, particularly in the coastal
sedimentation and abrasion); and riverbank areas. In addition,
groundwater use in coastal areas
2) Stipulating elevation standards for
should be limited to reduce
coastal development;
land subsidence. Consequently,
3) Developing drainage systems; controlling development upstream
4) Adopting the waterfront concept should be part of the efforts to
when developing coastal and improve the function of water
riverbank areas, by integrating built- catchment areas, in order to control
up areas with green open spaces and flooding in the lowlands. This policy
productive mangrove forests. implementation requires effective
cooperation with the upstream
regions, particularly Maros and
Gowa Districts.
26
27
4.3. palembang RISK PROFILE
Palembang is the economic center of South Sumatra Province. The
Spatial
Structure
Pattern
spatial development of Palembang developed according to the
expansion of economic and service activities in the region, including
mining and plantation. The city’s growth started with the Musi
400.61 km 2
COVERING AREA
River, which has been utilized as the area’s main transportation (Bappeda, 2012)
channel since the early stages of the region’s development. Many
industrial activities are located by the Musi river.
270C 167-250 mm/

month 2-20 m AMSL
Average Temp. Rainfall Intensity Located in a low-lying area.
(Bappeda, 2012) (BMKG, 2012) (Bappeda, 2012)
1,455,284 1,76% 0,14% 4,800 people/

km 2
Population Growth Rate Poverty Rate Population Density

(BPS, 2010) (BPS, 2012) (BPS, 2012) (BPS, 2012)
Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Palembang in the last three years is
dominated by manufacturing industry (BPS, 2012). There has been an increase on trade,
hotel and restaurant contribution to the GDP.
Pattern and Over the last decade, Palembang has experienced rapid physical development initiated
Direction of by both the government and the private sector. Major investments are underway which
Growth may generate an increase in population, in supporting activities such as residential areas,
and trigger complex environmental and land use issues. Intensified urban activities are
increasing the vulnerability of Palembang.
Further, the urban area is expanding towards the northern and eastern part of
Palembang. Governmental offices and settlements initiated development in the
east, while residential areas expanded into the north. More recently, development
is gravitating towards the south, where small industries and business activities are
emerging. This development has become more intense with the establishment of
28 Jakabaring, a new development center.
New economic centers are being established at Sako,
Jakabaring and Sukarami. These developments will
entail conversion of land from agricultural land and
CATCHMENT wetlands, to built-up areas, comprised of proposed
16 River Basin Flow
to Musi River
settlements, commercial and services establishments,
Sukarami
industry, offices, and public buildings.
(Bappeda, 2012)
Sako
Jakabaring

River Port Low Density
Existing Sub-district Population Center
Industrial Medium Density
Airport High Density
Growth Trends Jakabaring Sport Centre
The land use is dominated by settlements, commercial

34,29% and services, industry, offices, and public buildings.
(13,736.24 Ha)
Built up area Settlement 25%
(Bappeda, 2012) Wetland 15%
Office 14%
52,28% of the city consists of wetland Industry 10%
Road Network 10%
while the rest is plain areas. (Bappeda, 2012)
Paddy Field/Agriculture 10%
Forest 10%
Others 6%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Source: Local Environment Status Report, Palembang Environmental 29
Agency (BLHD), 2012
Pattern of Palembang is prone to two main types of hazards: flood and fire. The locations of flood
Disaster hazards are relatively evenly distributed across the city since Palembang was originally
Occurrences composed from wetlands. The areas that are highly prone to flood are those located
along Musi Riverbank. In the case of fire, the most vulnerable part is the central area. In
addition to those hazards, localized typhoons have also hit Palembang several times,
since deforestation had created more barren land which had caused micro climate to
change triggering unstable local weather pattern.
About 7,125 hectares of Palembang are susceptible to flooding; some

83 hectares are periodically flooded and over 7,000 hectares lowland 7,125 Ha
and watershed areas are frequently flooded during the rainy season. The Area
duration of the floods is also increasing. In 2007, floods lasted only a few regularly
hours, but in 2013, the inundation lasted a few days. In February 2013, flooded
massive flooding occurred, impacting 54 villages in 9 subdistricts: Gandus,
Ilir Barat I, Ilir Barat II, Ilir Timur I, Kemuning, Kertapati, Plaju, Seberang
Ulu I, and Seberang Ulu II. Several public facilities and roads were affected
as well, including Karyajaya Terminal, R. Soekamto Street, Mayor Ruslan
Street, and May Salim Batubara Street. This indicates higher vulnerability
and diminishing risk management capacity.
On average, fire events occurred 6 times a month and distributed evenly across
Palembang. Out of 107 villages, 43 villages are prone to fire hazards. The vulnerability
to fire is generated by the many buildings built of easily flammable material. Fire prone
locations are across several high density commercial areas, such as Seberang Ulu I
Village, Kelurahan 1 Ilir Village, 2 Ilir Village, 1 Ulu Village, 7 Ulu Village, 3 Ulu Village,
and 10 Ulu Village. Palembang is also affected by the peat fire commonly occuring in the
surrounding districts. Palembang is vulnerable due to population density and building
conditions (particularly in slum areas), type of land use (along riverbank and wetland), as
well as the absence of community level countermeasures in dealing with natural hazards.
30
Ineffective drainage systems to carry Airport
increasing inflow during the rainy District Banyuasin
season has been exacerbated by
high sedimentation in the drainage Sukarami Industrial Area
Subdistrict Sukarami
channels downstream. This reduces
the channels’ capacity and increase
Subdistrict Sako
risks of flooding.
By converting and reclaiming
wetlands, Palembang is expanding
towards the fringe areas in all
Kasiba-Lisiba
directions. Talang Kelapa Subdistrict Sematang Borang
Subdistrict Alang-Alang Lebar
Subdistrict Kalidoni
Subdistrict
Kemuning Subdistrict
Ilir Timur II
Subsdistrict Ilir Barat I
Subdistrict
Ilir Timur I Pusri Industrial Area
Subdistrict
Bukit Kecil
Subdistrict Gandus Subdistrict

Subdistrict
Ilir Barat II
Seberang Ulu II Pertamina
Industrial
Subdistrict Area
Seberang Ulu I
Jakabaring
Karya Jaya
Business Area
Flood
Gandus
Fire Agropolitan The growth of the city began
from Musi River, which, since
has long been the area’s main
Medium Density channel for transportation – of
(102-241 person/Ha) Karya Jaya goods and of people.
Business Area
High Density
(242-261 person/Ha)
There are more than 22,000 poor in the area, or about 15 percent of
15,15% the population (BPS, 2012). Some 212,800 houses are of permanent
Live below structure, while more than 42,000 constructions are semi permanent
poverty line and some 28,300 units are built on temporary structures (Ministry of
(BPS, 2011)
Public Works, 2009). Semi-permanent houses are also found in slum
settlements across 42 of 107 villages in Palembang. Slum settlements
22,430 in Palembang are generally located along the riverbank areas, such as
Keramasan River, Sekanak River, and other tributaries.
PEOPLE
(BPS, 2011)
31
District Banyuasin
Subdistrict Sukarami
Subdistrict Sako
Subdistrict Sematang Borang

Subdistrict Alang-Alang Lebar
Subdistrict Kalidoni
Subdistrict Subdistrict
Kemuning Ilir Timur II
Subdistrict Ilir Barat I
Subdistrict
Bukit Kecil
Subdistrict Gandus Subdistrict Subdistrict
Ilir Barat II Seberang Ulu II
Subdistrict
Seberang Ulu I
Controling Urban Wetland Convertion

Fire Mitigation Plan/Response Path
Building Evacuation Plan
The key issues Palembang faces are: (1) controlling the 1. WETLAND
Major
increasing conversion of wetland to built-up areas; (2) CONVERSION
Urban
prevention and reduction of flood risks; and (3) minimization of control
Investment
the negative environmental impact of rapid development along 2. FLOOD
the riverbanks. REDUCTION
Land acquisition through the conversion of wetlands is critical, 3. MINIMIZE
and demands that the city balances economic growth and IMPACT
environmental sustainability. RIVERBANK
DEVELOPMENT
32
Palembang has already enacted Local Regulation Number 11 Year 2012, regarding
Supervision of Wetland Utilization and Control, in order to ensure proper implementation.
Hence the experience of Manchester City in the UK and New Jersey in the USA could
be adopted. Manchester City revitalized the riverside through zoning control, while New
Jersey provided incentives for voluntary conservation of wetlands. Both approaches seek
Resilience
to balance environmental conservation with economic development, capitalizing on
Options
wetlands as a water attraction and a a historical district for preservation.
Risk-based land use and infrastructure investment planning:

The key issue for resilience of Palembang is how to capitalize flood risk zoning into multi
spatial sub-urban retrofitting (particularly in the densely populated downtown/old city). Land
consolidation and water management should also be integrated, in order to produce a
canal-rich waterfront downtown with waterways as alternatives for public transportation. Also
required is urban settlement design and housing architecture that are flood-resilient.
Development on reclaimed wetlands should entail strict requirements on the provision of
disaster mitigation infrastructure and of water catchment preservation, through retention
pools, biophores, rainwater harvesting, etc. Neighborhood Development Plans (RTBL)
are needed in areas with specific urban functions and key investments. For example, the
Jakabaring area.
The city needs at least an additional 30 pools through which runoff can be channeled and
retained during peak flow periods.
The city has also established detailed procedures for evacuation along the main corridors,
including the development of evacuation routes and training programs, as well as facilities in
the event of an emergency.
Urban infrastructure upgrading for resilience:

Make mandatory building code requirements that minimize fire risk.
The Municipality of Palembang has carried out various actions to control flooding, including
river normalization, construction of retention pools, construction of retaining walls (turap), and
formation of river diversions.
Urban ecosystem management option:
Located along a major river with most of the land being wetlands, Palembang has the
opportunity to transform itself as a waterfront city. It can adopt a development approach
that is water-sensitive, in order to maintain its ecosystem and hydrologic functions, while
capitalizing on its natural and cultural heritage.
33
Integrated investments in reconverting A priority investment could be for
former wetlands into “rebuilt” blue the creation and improvement of the
spaces, as well as land consolidation canal network and waterways as new
and settlement retrofitting could return and alternative public transportation.
Palembang back to its glory days as a Flood prevention through
water-oriented economy. redevelopment of the Musi River
corridor into a historic district with
As Palembang is expanding by its Ampera Bridge and surrounding
converting and reclaiming wetlands, commercial areas on both sides
it can mitigate the impact of this of the river -- currently prone to
conversion by introducing water- flooding -- can be equipped with
sensitive development in the Jakabaring more integrated flood protection
area. measures through a system of canals
This means entailing strict requirements and embankments. Combined with
for providing disaster mitigation urban upgrading, the corridor could
infrastructure and maintaining be developed as a prime tourist
water catchment areas, through the attraction, to highlight the city’s
provision of retention pools, biophore, heritage as a trading hub of the
and rainwater harvesting. Detailed Sriwijaya Kingdom.
Neighborhood Development Plans
(RTBL) can be formulated to integrate
built up areas with the surrounding water
features.
34
35
4.4. denpasar RISK PROFILE
Denpasar is the capital city of Bali Island Province and one of
Spatial
12,778 Ha
Indonesia’s main tourist destinations. While originally dependent on
Structure farming and agriculture, the area has transformed into an integrated
Pattern location for trade, services and government. Tourism started in Sanur COVERING AREA
on the coast, but urban growth has since been influenced by tourism (Bappeda, 2012)
and trade activity along the eastern coast.
260C 1,819 mm/

month 59% 82.2%
Average Temp. Rainfall Intensity situated within Slope is flat with
(Bappeda, 2012) (BMKG, 2013) 0-25 m AMSL slope between
0-2%
people/
804,905 4% 3,95% 10,084 km 2
Population Growth Rate Poverty Rate Highest Population

(BPS, 2011) (BPS, 2012)
(BPS, 2011) density in West
Denpasar
Pattern and The city expanded from the central part of the city, which used to be the center of
Direction of Badung Kingdom. The area then became an integrated location of trade, services
Growth and municipal center, and extensive growth in Sanur led to expansion in the southern
part of Denpasar. Housing complexes, factories and warehouses proliferated in North
Denpasar, while Margaya in West Denpasar is becoming a commercial area, in order
to support economic spillover from tourism in Kuta, Badung District.
A new residential area is also emerging in Gunung Talang in western Denpasar,
previously dense with paddy fields.
36
The Sanur beach area
in the Southeastern
corner of the city
started to grow in the
1960s.
The early days Denpasar was

concentrated at the city center, where
markets, government offices and
commercials are located, in the old site
of Badung Kingdom.
Housing
Trade and service area
Tourism Between 2005 and 2006,
Green open space another drastic change
occurred, with respect to
Central Business District farmland: paddy fields
shrunk by 51 hectares, or
Sub-Central Business District 1.84% of total land use,
and new housing were
Sub-District Population Center built on 117 hectares, or
1.52% of the total land
Existing Growth Trends availability.
LAND USE Denpasar (Bappeda, 2012)

61.29% Agriculture 21%
Housing 61.29%
(7,831 Ha) Swamp 9%

Built up area Forest 5%
dominated by housing Fishpond 3%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Today, housing complexes dominated land use of Denpasar. The expansion of settlements is clear. Of the
total land availability of 12,778 hectares, more than 61 % is used for housing, while rice fields occupy some
21 % of land, state-owned forest land take up 4.21% of land. The rest of the land is divided up as follows:
grassland has 3.10%, community forests have 0.59%, non-rice farming takes up 0.27%, fishponds comprise
0.08% of land, while the rest of the land -- 9.20% -- comprise of sands, swamps and wetlands. 37
Pattern of Settlement-dense Denpasar is prone to several types of hazards, including floods,
Disaster fire, tsunami, earthquakes, strong wind and landslides. Given the population density,
Occurrences Denpasar is also prone to other types of disaster, such as flood-related disease outbreaks
and poor sanitation. Denpasar is particularly vulnerable due to population density and
land use activity near hazard prone areas. The existence of slum settlements in the city
also contributes to vulnerability, particularly related to fire hazards.
There are 18 locations in Denpasar that are prone to

flooding: they are across 11 villages and cover an area of 18 location
495 hectares. Flooding occurs due to poor drainage and Area that always
high rainfall intensity. flooded
Fire is the disaster that occurs most frequently, especially in highly dense settlements
and in some commercial areas from east to south.
As it lies on the active Australian and Indonesian plates, Denpasar has the potential of
experiencing an earthquake and a tsunami. According to Indonesia’s earthquake index,
Denpasar is categorized as “high-risk”. The possibility of tsunami in Bali is high since it is
situated in between two earthquake generators. The epicenters are likely located at the
ocean south of Bali Island.
Landslides in Denpasar commonly occur in relatively limited areas that have steep
slopes, such as riverbanks. However, as riverbanks are considered attractive and are
rapidly converted into built-up spaces, they become risk areas and require serious
attention.
Whirlwind have also struck Denpasar several times, at speeds between 5 and 20 knots
or about 30 kilometers per hour.
38
Subdistrict Abiansemal
District Badung
Areas that are prone to flooding Subdistrict Mengwi Subdistrict Sukawati

District Badung District Gianyar
are along the rivers: Mati River, Subdistrict
Badung River, Sidakarya, and Denpasar Utara
the Talang Mountain area.
Subdistrict
Meanwhile, fire occurs in Denpasar Timur
densely populated locations,
such as the Sanur area and
Gajah Mada street.
City Centre
Subdistrict Kuta Utara
District Badung
Subdistrict
Denpasar Barat Provincial
Government Office
Sanur Beach
Subdistrict IT
Denpasar Selatan T RA
N GS
DU
BA
S A IN
M UD
Flood
DIEAN
R AO
HC
Fire
IN
Subdistrict Kuta
EDAN
IA
District Badung
Tsunami
Medium Density
(105-147 person/Ha) Benoa
High Density BU Seaport
(148-411 person/Ha) Airport
298000 10Õ20Ó
Some 62 % of built up areas are settlements (Bappeda, 2011). West Denpasar

61 has 13 slum areas across 11 villages, consisting of 589 housing units and 605
Slum Location households. In total, the slum areas cover 23.1 hectares.
(Bappeda, 2011)
In South Denpasar, 18 slum areas are scattered across 10 villages and consist
23,1 Ha of 361 housing units, impacting 417 households and 2.67 hectares.
SLUM AREA
In East Denpasar, 24 slum areas across 11 villages have 453 housing units,
impact 519 households and 4.9 hectares.
In North Denpasar, there are 6 slum areas across 11 villages, with 267 housing
units, 373 households is 373. The total size of of the slum area is 44,206.05 m2. 39
Subdistrict Abiansemal
District Badung
Subdistrict Mengwi Subdistrict Sukawati

District Badung District Gianyar
Subdistrict
Denpasar Utara
Subdistrict
Denpasar Timur
Subdistrict Kuta Utara

District Badung
Subdistrict
Denpasar Barat
Subdistrict IT
Denpasar Selatan T RA
GS
D UN
BA
S A IN
M UD
DIEAN
R AO
HCIN
Subdistrict Kuta
EDAN
IA
District Badung
Flood Control
Investment
Fire Mitigation Plan/ BU
Response Path
298000 10Õ20Ó
Major As a tourist city, Denpasar continues to prioritize development in 1. flood

Urban coastal areas. control
Investment The municipality routinely conducts river dredging or normalization, 2. landslide
particularly in areas frequently struck by flooding, such as Loloan, prevention
Badung, and Padang Sambian. Besides those rivers, the Spatial Plan 3. River
(RTRW) mandates normalization in other major rivers: Ayung River, dredging
Mati River, Buaji River, Ngejung River, along with their tributaries,
which function as regional and urban drainage channels.
40
In the medium and long term, Denpasar should focus on three measures:
(i) flood mitigation; (ii) tsunami preparedness in tourist areas, fish processing areas,
and high-density settlements; (iii) fire mitigation.
Flood mitigation should be integrated with infrastructure development, with
Resilience the river basins managed and flood-prone areas clearly designated. Coastal
Options management, economic and social development should apply risk-based land use
and infrastructure investment planning, by synchronizing zoning regulations.
Balance between upstream and downstream development is also important,
particularly as Badung District is under the framework of the Sarbagita secretariat,
that is Denpasar, Badung, Gianyar, and Tabanan. This joint secretariat allows for
horizontal coordination and decision-making in other jurisdictions.
Denpasar should also adopt a community-based fire management system, by
providing guidelines, standard operating procedures and training for community
volunteers and hotel association.
Risk-based land use and infrastructure investment planning, includes accelerating the
implementation of comprehensive flood mitigation, ensuring controlled development
in flood-prone areas, tsunami risk-based land use and infrastructure investment
planning in coastal areas, as well as strengthening emergency and rescue capability
for a “Tourist-safe Denpasar”.
Urban infrastructure upgrading for resilience means fire mitigation planning should
be undertaken, specifically infrastructure improvement in order to improve service
coverage and response times during fire emergencies. Evacuation planning in every
community should be developed through a participatory approach.
Urban ecosystem management options: The RTRW of Denpasar specified Ngurah Rai
Forest Park in South Denpasar as the protected coastal area with mangrove forests.
Restoration of mangrove ecosystems along the coasts is urgently needed in order
to simultaneously reduce the impact of abration, sea level rise, and tsunami, as well
as offer a new tourist attraction. Denpasar could apply stricter spatial development
controls upstream, particularly settlement development in flood and landslide prone
zones in North and West Denpasar. One option to address this issue is to establish
inter-region cooperation, particularly with Badung District.
The prospects of incorporating resilience in on-going investments in Denpasar is
promising, because the RTRW has already incorporated some resilience measures,
particularly in response to the continuous development of the coastal areas. However,
there is a need to integrate it with existing investments, towards comprehensive,
water-sensitive, and tsunami-safe spatial development.
41
Honolulu, Hawaii, adhered to the Primary Urban Center Development for coastal area
concept – and Honolulu’s experience provides an example of balancing economic growth
with the needs of the residents. This concept could be considered by Denpasar, in order
to control rapid development that jeopardizes the natural ecosystem. The coastal area of
Honolulu is also equipped with tsunami mitigation measures, including updated community-
based evacuation plans. Denpasar could enhance its near coast ocean-floor data to
develop more accurate evacuation plans and utilize the Banjar (traditional village) as well
as the Pecalang (traditional safeguard) in designing evacuation plans and other mitigation
measures
DENPASAR SEWERAGE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (DSDP) Conditions Of Tsunami Evacuation Path Signage
Source: Poetoegraphy, 2008 In Sanur Area: Some Are Improperly Situated
And/Or Unclear
Source: Observation, 2013
The Sanur Tsunami Evacuation Map shown was

formulated by a working group under the leadership
of the BPBD. The plan provides guidance for more
detailed planning at the sub-village level.
To achieve a regionally integrated risk sensitive
development, it is important to recognize the
challenges in inter-municipal collaboration
and development coordination. The Sarbagita
Metropolitan Area cooperation scheme needs to be
tapped, since some triggers for potential disaster
are caused by development in upstream regions,
particularly in the northern part of Badung.
42
Similarly, disasters in Denpasar can impact other regions in the metropolitan area. The Sarbagita Joint
Secretariat can be empowered to foster effective multi-region cooperation in conducting seamless
risk analysis, and risk sensitive urban planning and investment. This entity can be utilized to implement
regionally comprehensive disaster-risk based land use planning and infrastructure development,
particularly to reduce the impact of land conversion in upstream regions.
The Secretariat could act as a facilitator to establish collective decision-making processes among
the local governments. Most importantly, the secretariat could initiate agreement that disaster and
climate risk reduction measures should be implemented in a synergy, through open and transparent
negotiation processes.
43
4.5. SEMARANG RISK PROFILE
Semarang is physically unique, with coastal areas, flat land,
Spatial
Structure
and hills. With 19 watersheds and 14 rivers, Semarang is one
of Java’s major port cities and plays a significant role in the 37,367 Ha
Pattern development of Central Java Province. COVERING AREA
(Bappeda, 2012)
North area slope of 0-2% at

27 C 0 84 mm/
month 0-3.5 m AMSL
Average Temp. Rainfall Intensity South area slope of 2-40% at
(Bappeda, 2012) (BMKG, 2013) 90-200m AMSL
1,544,358 1,11% 4.07% 4,087 people/

km 2

(BPS, 2011) (BPS, 2011) (BPS, 2012)
(BPS, 2012)
With the population concentrated in the city center, Semarang ranks as the country’s
6th most populated city (World Bank, 2012). The average population density is 4,087
persons per square kilometer, and the most densely-populated area is South Semarang,
with more than 14,000 person per square kilometer.
Pattern and In the past, the old town area of Semarang in the city’s northeast was the epicenter of
Direction of growth. Semarang’s urban development began in the 17th century, when the colonial
Growth administration (VOC) designated an area of 31 hectares, known as Kota Lama.
Today, Kota Lama Semarang is no longer a growth center. Gradually, social and
economic activity shifted to the city’s central business district (CBD). Since the
establishment of Tanjung Mas Seaport, activity is particularly concentrated along the
north coast.
44
TANJUNG MAS
SEAPORT
TRIMULYO
TERBOYO
TANJUNGMAS TERBOYO
WETAN BUS STATION
TERBOYO
MANGKANG TERBOYO KARANGROTO
KULON BANDARHARJO KULON
MANGUNHARJO
INDUSTRIAL
PANGGUNG
LOR
TUGU TAWANGSARI SEMARANG SEMARANG BANJARDOWO
TIMUR
MANGKANG AIRPORTUTARA KUNINGAN KEMIJEN
GAYAMSARI
AREA
Bugagan
WETAN KARANGANYAR
JERAKAH GEBANGSARI
PANGGUNG REJOMULYO TAMBAKREJO KUDU
MUKTIHARJO
TAMBAK KIDUL
GENUK
TERMINAL
TUGUREJO DADAPSARI
RANDU MLATIBARU KALIGAWE LOR GENUKSARI
Bonded Zone
HARJO
GARUT PURWOSARI
TAWANGMAS MLATIHARJO
PLOMBOKAN
PURWODINATAN
WONOSARI MANGKANG SEMARANG
BULU
KROBOKAN LOR PANDANSARI
KAUMAN BUGANGAN
KEBONAGUNG
MUKTIHARJO
BANGETAYU
PENDRIKAN BANGUNHARJO KULON
Wijayakusuma
SAWAHBESAR
BARAT KARANG LOR KRANGGAN
KEMBANGSARI JAGALAN REJOSARI
KIDUL SEMBUNGHARJO
AYU SEKAYU GABAHAN
SALAMANMLOYO PENDRIKAN SARIREJO
Bonded Zone KRAPYAK KALIBANTENG MIROTO

CABEAN KIDUL BRUMBUNGAN SAMBIREJO TLOGOSARI BANGETAYU
KULON BULUSTALAN PEKUNDEN KULON
MUGASSARI KARANGTURI SIWALAN TLOGOSARI WETAN
TAMBAKAJI BOJONGSALAMAN
KARANGTEMPEL WETAN
GONDORIYO PURWOYOSO
KALIBANTENG
KIDUL BONGSARI BARUSARI
SEMARANG KARANGKIDUL PENGGARON
NGALIYAN KEMBANGARUM GISIKDRONO SELATAN PANDEAN TLOGOMULYO
LOR
RANDUSARI PLEBURAN
LAMPER KALICARI
NGEMPLAKSIMONGAN LEMPONGSARI PETERONGAN GAYAMSARI PEDURUNGAN
PODOREJO BRINGIN WONODRI TENGAH
MANYARAN
LAMPER PALEBON
NGALIYAN PETOMPON
BENDUNGAN TEGALSARI
LOR LAMPER PEDURUNGAN
LAMPER TENGAH PEDURUNGAN
KALIPANCUR BENDAN GAJAHMUNGKUR KIDUL LOR PENGGARON
WATES BAMBANKEREP CANDI GEMAH
KIDUL
SAMPANGAN NGISOR
CANDISARI JOMBLANG
GAJAH MUNGKUR WONOTINGAL
SENDANGGUWO
PEDURUNGAN
BENDAN KALIWIRU KIDUL
DUWUR
Taman Industri
KARANG KARANGANYAR
REJO GUNUNG PLAMONGAN
TANDANG KEDUNGMUNDU
KEDUNGPANI SARI
PESANTREN JATINGALEH
BSB Bonded SUKO EJO

R JANGLI
SADENG
NGADIRGO
WONOPLUMBON
Zone KANDRI TINJOMOYO NGESREP

SAMBIROTO SENDANGMULYO
MANGUNHARJO
JATIBARANG
Central Business District WONOLOPO SEKARAN
SUMURBOTO TEMBALANG BULUSAN

JATIREJO KALISEGORO
MIJEN MIJEN GUNUNG
SRONDOL
KULON
TEMBALANG
PATI
Sub-Central Business District CEPOKO
PEDALANGAN METESEH
JATISARI NONGKOSAWIT KRAMAS

PATEMON
diponegoro
SRONDOL
WETAN
Sub-District Population Center TAMBANGAN

PURWOSARI NGIJO
PADANGSARI
ROWOSARI
GUNUNGPATI
BANYUMANIK BANYUMANIK university
Existing Growth Trends POLAMAN MANGUNSARI BANYUMANIK
BUS STATION
PAKINTELAN
JABUNGAN
Growth Trends BUBAKAN

KARANGMALANG PLALANGAN
CANGKIRAN PUDAKPAYUNG
GEDAWANG New settlements grow toward the
Housing SUMUREJO
southern part of the city include
Banyumanik and Tembalang.
Old Town
The city has expanded in various directions. New settlements were established in the southern part of the
city, including Banyumanik and Tembalang.
To control development, Semarang ensured that measures to reduce risks and manage disasters are
included in the Spatial Planning (RTRW), specifically through zoning regulations. However, despite the
presence of disaster risks, the by-law Semarang Spatial Plan for 2011 – 2031 has not fully recognized
potential key hazards such as flooding and landslides.
45
Pattern of The city is prone to seven types of hazards: flooding, land Sea Level Rise
Disaster
Occurrences
subsidence, sea level rise, landslides, fire, strong wind, and
drought. Hazards with potentially the most impact are floods,
land subsidence, and sea level rise. Flooding predominantly
7,88 mm/
year
and reaches 1.7 – 3.0
affects the north coast of Semarang, due to high rainfall intensity, km from the shore to
land subsidence, road inundation, and poor drainage systems. the mainland
Flooding greatly impacts commercial activities.
Flooding occurs more frequently in the northern part of Semarang and

mostly caused by tidal floods and poor drainage systems. Some 91 91
villages are particularly prone to flooding (ACCCRN, 2010; BPBD, 2010; villages in
Fire Department, 2010). The drainage systems are ineffective and carry Semarang
increasing inflow streams during the rainy season. High sedimentation are prone to
in the drainage channels downstream means reduced capacity and flood
greater vulnerability to floods.
Fire hazards occur more frequently in the city center, where economic activity is
concentrated.
The rate of Sea Level Rise in Semarang is about 7.88 mm/year, and reaches 1.7 – 3.0
km inland. This leads to inundation of some 7,500 to 8,500 hectares and economic
losses due to disruption of commercial activities.
Landslides occur in the south, specifically the eight villages in Gunung Pati subdistrict.
46
TRIMULYO
TANJUNGMAS TERBOYO
WETAN
MANGUNHARJO
PANGGUNG
LOR
UTARA TIMUR
MANGKANG KEMIJEN
KUNINGAN
WETAN KARANGANYAR
JERAKAH GAYAMSARI GEBANGSARI
MUKTIHARJO
RANDU
TUGUREJO TAMBAK
HARJO
KIDUL DADAPSARI MLATIBARU KALIGAWE LOR GENUKSARI GENUK
GARUT PURWOSARI
PLOMBOKAN
PURWODINATAN
BULU KAUMAN BUGANGAN
WONOSARI KROBOKAN LOR
SEMARANG PANDANSARI KEBONAGUNG
MUKTIHARJO
BANGETAYU
PENDRIKAN BANGUNHARJO SAWAHBESAR KULON
KIDUL SEMBUNGHARJO
AYU SEKAYU GABAHAN
SALAMANMLOYO PENDRIKAN MIROTO SARIREJO
KRAPYAK KALIBANTENG CABEAN KIDUL BRUMBUNGAN SAMBIREJO TLOGOSARI BANGETAYU
KARANGTEMPEL WETAN
GONDORIYO PURWOYOSO
KALIBANTENG
LOR
RANDUSARI PLEBURAN
LAMPER KALICARI
MANYARAN
LAMPER PALEBON
NGALIYAN PETOMPON
BENDUNGAN TEGALSARI
KIDUL
SAMPANGAN NGISOR
CANDISARI JOMBLANG
SENDANGGUWO
PEDURUNGAN
DUWUR
KARANG KARANGANYAR
TANDANG KEDUNGMUNDU
KEDUNGPANI SARI
SUKO EJO
R JANGLI
SADENG
NGADIRGO
WONOPLUMBON
KANDRI TINJOMOYO NGESREP
MANGUNHARJO
JATIBARANG
WONOLOPO SEKARAN

JATIREJO KALISEGORO
MIJEN MIJEN GUNUNG
SRONDOL
KULON
TEMBALANG
PATI PEDALANGAN METESEH
CEPOKO
PATEMON SRONDOL
WETAN
PURWOSARI NGIJO ROWOSARI
TAMBANGAN PADANGSARI
GUNUNGPATI BANYUMANIK
BANYUMANIK
Flood
POLAMAN MANGUNSARI
JABUNGAN
PAKINTELAN
Medium Density BUBAKAN

KARANGMALANG PLALANGAN Fire
(57-140 person/Ha) CANGKIRAN PUDAKPAYUNG
GEDAWANG
Sea Level Rise

High Density
SUMUREJO
(141-298 person/Ha) Land Slide
Settlement expansion to the south and southwest; declining mangrove ecosystems

73,140 along the north coast. The densely populated and dominantly covered by built-up
PEOPLE areas are illustrated using darker colors. Hence, the darker colored areas represent
those with higher vulnerability to disasters, particularly fire, sea level rise and land
42 subsidence. Those are areas of major economic activity and strategic infrastructure.
LOCATION
Accordingly, the impact of disasters here will be more significant than in other parts
of the city.
In 2009, some 73,000 people in Semarang lived in poverty (BPS, 2009). In 2012,
a study carried out by the Islamic University of Sultan Agung (Unissula) reported that
slum areas had grown to 42 locations, and so have the number of squatters. 13 of
these slums are in North Semarang. 47
TRIMULYO
TANJUNGMAS TERBOYO
WETAN
MANGUNHARJO
PANGGUNG
LOR
UTARA TIMUR
MANGKANG KEMIJEN
KUNINGAN
WETAN KARANGANYAR
JERAKAH GAYAMSARI GEBANGSARI
MUKTIHARJO
RANDU
TUGUREJO TAMBAK
HARJO
KIDUL DADAPSARI MLATIBARU KALIGAWE LOR GENUKSARI GENUK
GARUT PURWOSARI
PLOMBOKAN
PURWODINATAN
BULU KAUMAN BUGANGAN
WONOSARI KROBOKAN LOR
SEMARANG PANDANSARI KEBONAGUNG
MUKTIHARJO
BANGETAYU
PENDRIKAN BANGUNHARJO SAWAHBESAR KULON
KIDUL SEMBUNGHARJO
AYU SEKAYU GABAHAN
SALAMANMLOYO PENDRIKAN MIROTO SARIREJO
KRAPYAK KALIBANTENG CABEAN KIDUL BRUMBUNGAN SAMBIREJO TLOGOSARI BANGETAYU
KARANGTEMPEL WETAN
GONDORIYO PURWOYOSO
KALIBANTENG
LOR
RANDUSARI PLEBURAN
LAMPER KALICARI
MANYARAN
LAMPER PALEBON
NGALIYAN PETOMPON
BENDUNGAN TEGALSARI
KIDUL
SAMPANGAN NGISOR
CANDISARI JOMBLANG
SENDANGGUWO
PEDURUNGAN
DUWUR
KARANG KARANGANYAR
TANDANG KEDUNGMUNDU
KEDUNGPANI SARI
SUKO EJO
R JANGLI
SADENG
NGADIRGO
WONOPLUMBON
KANDRI TINJOMOYO NGESREP
MANGUNHARJO
JATIBARANG
WONOLOPO SEKARAN

JATIREJO KALISEGORO
MIJEN MIJEN GUNUNG
SRONDOL
KULON
TEMBALANG
PATI PEDALANGAN METESEH
CEPOKO
PATEMON SRONDOL
WETAN
PURWOSARI NGIJO ROWOSARI
TAMBANGAN PADANGSARI
GUNUNGPATI BANYUMANIK
Flood Control POLAMAN MANGUNSARI BANYUMANIK
Investment PAKINTELAN
JABUNGAN
BUBAKAN
Fire Mitigation Plan/ KARANGMALANG PLALANGAN
Response Path CANGKIRAN PUDAKPAYUNG

GEDAWANG
SUMUREJO
Landslide Prevention
Sea Level Rise Control
Semarang’s north coast is exposed to multi-hazard high 1. flood

Major
risks, while areas in the south and southwest are exposed to control
Urban
landslide. The Neighborhood Development Plan (RTBL) that 2. landslide
Investment
includes the accompanying zoning regulation in high-risk areas, prevention
particularly the northern part, is essential, in order to reduce 3. minimization
environmental damage. It should be noted that fiscal discretion INDUSTRIAL
in Semarang is low and fluctuates from year to year, ranging AND COASTAL
from 8% to 20%. This indicates that Semarang needs other development
sources of financing to ensure investments towards resilience. impact
48
Risk-based infrastructure investment planning options. New developments along the
north coast require countermeasures to sea level rise, such as land elevation and floating
construction, particularly in new areas for industrial development near Achmad Yani
Airport and the expansion of Tanjung Mas Seaport.
Semarang should formulate and implement a risk-based Neighborhood Development
Planning (RTBL) for industrial and other strategic areas in the north coast and in Central
Semarang.
The city must also control groundwater use. Options include improving the supply of tap/
pipe water, as well as utilizing rainwater harvesting in all sub-districts, particularly in the
north coast areas.
Undertake a strategic natural environment review on the RTRW under climate change
criteria, in order to inform existing and future development investment in the high risk
areas.
Urban Infrastructure upgrading: As part of Semarang’s flood response program, since

2010 the West Flood Canal (WFC) has seen improvements through normalization; the
repairs completed in 2013, and have significantly reduced the impact of flooding in the
northern and western parts of Semarang.
The East Flood Canal (EFC), on the other hand, has not been improved, at the time of
study for this publication in 2013. Coordinating the upgrading and operation of the canal
system is critical, as they are managed by different river authorities. Development of
areas in the south -- prone to landslides -- has been rapid.The hills in these areas need to
be strengthened, by building anchored walls, particularly where the slopes are steep, the
soil is unstable, and where important infrastructure need safeguarding. The municipality
should also enforce zoning control and apply stricter rules about the issuance of
construction permits.
Urban ecosystem management: To protect activity in the north coast, Semarang must
revitalize the area’s mangrove forests. This can reduce the impact of sea level rise, land
subsidence, and coastal inundation. Similarly, development upstream must be managed,
particularly settlement development in Banyumanik, Tembalang, and West Semarang.
Greenery programs, water harvesting, and other efforts to maintain water catchment
coverage should be integrated with any development that takes place in those areas.
49
Flood management remains a major task for Semarang. The existence
of West and East Flood Canals is not adequate in tackling the floods,
because of the compounding effect of land subsidence along the
coast. Semarang needs an integrated drainage system as well as
land acquisition schemes for flood-prone areas, so that they can be
cleared from built-up activities and repurposed as urban catchment
areas and coastal ecosystems.
Brisbane is the sister city of Semarang. Flood hazards occur
frequently in Brisbane, as the city was built on a river and close to
Moreton Bay, with many creeks and tributaries running through the
suburbs. During the summer months, severe storms with heavy rainfall
are common. These storms can result in flooding from Brisbane
River and connected creeks, storm surges along the coastal areas,
and overland flow flooding. Brisbane responded by developing an
integrated drainage system that covers the whole city. The system is
complemented by a backflow prevention device. The device ensures
that storm waters will flow only to one direction through a piped
storm water system, as well as minimize the amount of water that flow
back to the roads/surfaces.
This approach can be replicated in Semarang, along the two canals.
Development of the city’s coasts should recognize more water-
sensitive land use.
For the hilly parts of Semarang’s south, rain harvesting and controlled
development are options for reducing flood risks, conserving water,
and mitigating land subsidence. Here, the City of Sumida, Tokyo
can serve as inspiration. Having high rainfall and situated around two
large rivers -- Sumida and Arakawa rivers -- Sumida residents often
suffer from flooding but also paradoxically have inadequate water
supply. Semarang can adopt Sumida’s example, by regulating permit
requirements for property or residential developers in the Building
and Neighborhood Development Plan (RTBL).
But the implementation of rainwater utilization also requires the
support of municipal government officials, as well as cross-agency
cooperation and coordination. Local residents and businesses should
also be informed about the short- and long-term benefits of rainwater
utilization.
50
51
4.6. Yogyakarta RISK PROFILE
Yogyakarta is a tourist city with rich cultural heritage, located near
Spatial
Structure
Pattern
the south coast of Java Island. The city is part of the Special Region
Province of Yogyakarta and, due to urban agglomeration of its
surrounding cities and suburbs, has evolved into a metropolitan
3,250 Ha
COVERING AREA
city. The urban form took shape originally from the Sultan’s Palace, (Bappeda, 2012)
or Keraton, in the heart of the city. Settlements then grew in all

directions from the city center, as infrastructure such as road networks
and service centers developed. The development of tourism and
educational institutions has also influenced the city. As a result, built-
up areas are expanding towards the surrounding rural and riverbank
areas.
260C 200 mm/

month 82,2% 114 m AMSL
Average Temp. Rainfall Intensity southern part of the
(Bappeda, 2012) (BMKG, 2013) city is flat with slope
between 0-2%
428,252 1,32% 4.07% 13,177 people/

km 2

(BPS, 2012) (BPS, 2012) (BPS, 2012)
Pattern and Yogyakarta as a city dates back to 1755, from the Keraton, with the Royale Palace
Direction of Square and fortress as the city’s main elements. Later, a settlement for abdi dalem
Growth or the royal servants were built in the areas surrounding the Keraton.Traditionally,
Yogyakartans believe in the influence of Mount Merapi in the north and the coastal
area in the south, and hence the development of settlements should follow the same
pattern, in a north-south direction.
52
Gajah Mada
University
Kali Code
Yogyakarta
Lempuyangan
Train Station
Train Station
Provincial
Government
Office
Keraton Area
Housing
Trade and service area
Office and service area
Tourism
Green open space
The Keraton Area

Sub-District Population Centre

Yogyakarta used to be a relatively small city. In the 1930s, the city had a population of only 60,000 people
(Baiquni, 2004 in Baier, 2012).. The city has evolved into a metropolitan city, encompassing surrounding
cities and suburbs. Since the 1970s, migration to the city has grown rapidly. The city’s population now
crosses its administrative boundaries, particularly towards Sleman and Bantul districts.
In recent decades, new centers of commerce, education and tourism have grown in parallel with
developments of settlements, both formal and informal. As Yogyakarta has limited available land, rapid
migration into the city has resulted in low-income communities settling in natural disaster hotspots such,
as vulnerable riverbank slums (Bawole, 2012).
53
Pattern of Yogyakarta is prone to flooding, flash flooding of cold lava (lahar), landslides, strong
Disaster wind, earthquakes, and fire. Most flooding, lahar, and landslide events are concentrated
Occurrences in settlements located along the riverbanks, whereas fire occurs in densely populated
areas, particularly in the northern part of the city. Yogyakarta is also at risk from volcanic
ash rain, due to its proximity to Mt. Merapi, one of the world’s most active volcanoes.
Lying atop the active Opak fault between Yogyakarta and Bantul District, earthquakes pose
a constant threat to Yogyakarta. Earthquakes frequently occur at shallow depths, making
many structures very vulnerable. The first recorded earthquake in Yogyakarta Province
took place in 1840. Three earthquakes were followed by tsunamis. In 2006, Yogyakarta was
struck by a strong earthquake, causing more than 5,000 fatalities. The damage is estimated
to exceed USD $ 3.1 billion. According to the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology,
Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) and the Center of Volcanology and Geological
Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG), the latest and most damaging earthquake occurred on May
27, 2006; the quake had a magnitude of only 5.8 – 6.2 on the Richter scale (Bappeda,
2008). This hightlights the increase exposure of built up assets in recent years.
Most flooding, lahar, and landslide occurrences are concentrated in villages located along
the riverbank areas, including Code, Gajahwong, and Winongo River. Due to the expansion
of built-up areas and poor drainage systems, the capacity of water catchment areas has
declined. Lahar flows primarily through the Code River, a tributary of Mount Merapi.
Landslides, on the other hand, strike areas of high development density.
Fires in Yogyakarta also occur in densely populated areas, with the frequency being 40 to
50 times a year.
54
Code River
Winogo
er
Riv
ng
River
wo
KECAMATAN TEGALREJO
ah
Gaj
KEC.JETIS
e
KEC. GONDOKUSUMAN
KEC. GEDONGTENGEN
KEC. DANUREJAN
KEC.PAKUALAM
KEC. GONDOMANAN
KEC. WIROBRAJAN
KEC. NGAMPILAN
KOTAMADYA YOGYAKARTA
Bantul
District
KECAMATAN KRATON
Flood KEC. MERGANGSAN
Lahar
KECAMATAN UMBULAHARJO
Fire KEC. KOTAGEDE
KEC. MANTRIJERON
Landslide
Medium Density
(120-209 person/Ha)
High Density
(210-300 person/Ha) Bantul District
Major Population growth and expansion of built-ups areas related to tourism

Urban and educational institutions, increase Yogyakarta’s vulnerability to disaster
Investment risks. The situation is worsened by development projects carried out by
the private sector which did not pay adequate attention to environmental
impact, particularly in riverbank areas. Limited available land and high
demand for settlements, hotels, restaurants and other commercial activities
has forced development onto urban land that had been set aside as
conservation or watershed protected areas.
55
Code River
Winogo
er
Riv
ng
River
wo
KECAMATAN TEGALREJO
ah
Gaj
KEC.JETIS
e
KEC. GONDOKUSUMAN
KEC. GEDONGTENGEN
KEC. DANUREJAN
KEC.PAKUALAM
KEC. GONDOMANAN
KEC. WIROBRAJAN
KEC. NGAMPILAN
KOTAMADYA YOGYAKARTA
Bantul
District KECAMATAN KRATON
KEC. MERGANGSAN
KECAMATAN UMBULAHARJO
KEC. KOTAGEDE
Flood, Lahar, landslide
prevention Control
KEC. MANTRIJERON
Investment
Fire Mitigation Plan/
Response Path
Strong Wind Mitigation
Building Evacuation Plan
Major Increased construction has led to greater density along the Code, Winongo, and
Urban Gajahwong rivers. Development takes place despite the fact that the area is geologically
Investments unstable and prone to landslides. The rivers are also heavily silted by volcanic sediment,
reducing their channel capacity and causing frequent overflow. Overcrowding also increases
the risk to fire.
56
These three rivers are key urban ecosystems that need careful management to ensure
that rapid development will continue to balance between economic growth and
ecological wellbeing. Upstream development must be controlled. On-going investments
in waste management systems are required in order to control river pollution from
commercial and settlement activities along the riverbanks. The Kartamantul inter-
Resilience
administration Joint Secretariat can be beneficial and the city should take advantage
Options
of their presence in order to address more complex disaster regimes beyond their
administrative boundaries.
Risk-based infrastructure investment planning options include accelerating the

implementation of effective flooding, lahar, and landslides mitigation along the
riverbanks; and restricting the development of hotels, restaurants, and housing along
these areas.
Urban infrastructure upgrading should first formulate a fire mitigation plan, specifically
by providing fire hydrants in the most strategic and/or dense areas and improving
accessibility for emergency response.
Urban ecosystem management focuses on managing Yogyakarta’s watershed, by

controlling development from the upstream to the downstream region. Comprehensive
waste management is also required to control pollution. The city needs more green and
open spaces to preserve the urban microclimate.
57
Yogyakarta is a major tourist attraction with a rich
cultural heritage, as well as a center for education.
There is opportunity here to turn the city’s three
rivers into historic districts with environmental
attractions. The City of Kyoto, Japan -- sister city
to Yogyakarta -- can be the inspiration. Both cities
are rich in cultural heritage, and both are prone
to multiple disasters. Kyoto has several rivers
and canals, such as the Katsura and Kamogawa
(Kamo) rivers; the latter flows through the city and
has been designated as cultural heritage. The
watershed boundary area is preserved and used
by the government as green open space and
cyclist lane. It has become one of the city’s main
tourist attractions.
The Kampung development along the Code
river serves as a starting point for Yogyakarta,
and the community living along the rivers may
become the center point of any redevelopment
effort. Other rivers such as the Winongo and
Gadjahwong rivers can follow suit. One option
is to adopt a combination of riverbank natural
protection on the upstream segment of the rivers,
neighborhood upgrading on the middle segment,
and commercial development for tourism small
business on the lower segment. The three river
corridors can be turned into river walks with nature
attractions on the north, traditional kampung walks
in the middle, and souvenir arcades in the south
near the Palace areas.
Riverfront redevelopment can offer both resilience
and economic benefit more broadly for the
community and the city.
58
59
5. Next Step
Making concrete resilient investment:
Winongo Resilient River Redevelopment
Case Study – Yogyakarta
The aim of the Disaster and Climate Risk (DCR) Rapid

Diagnostic is to promote evidence-based planning and
budgeting practice, by combining technical expertise with
community knowledge. Such a diagnostic allows decision
makers to identify high risk areas against existing and potential
natural hazards; this identification can help local governments
initiate disaster preparedness and prevention mechanisms.
The risk profile derived from the rapid diagnostic allows
municipalities to focus on development corridors that have
vulnerable population and assets and can improve the cities’
overall resilience.
This section outlines how the DCR Rapid Diagnostics
encourages local government and stakeholders to undertake
disaster and climate risk reduction efforts, by integrating
resilience into on-going or planned urban investment
in Indonesia. A case study was carried out in the City of
Yogyakarta, where the Risk Profile produced through the DCR
Rapid Diagnostic formed the basis for a pre-feasibility study on
redevelopment planning along the Winongo River, identified
by the diagnostic as a potential risk. The river redevelopment
plan provides a clearer picture on the spatial re-arrangement
required along the corridor. The process as presented in the
diagram below reflects continued conversation amongst
residents about disaster and climate risks and how to build
resilience through investments.
60
PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY
LOCATION OF RISK & WINONGO RIVER
INVESTMENT REDEVELOPMENT
Winongo River Riverwalk as Flood Mitigation and
Corridor Economic Development Strategy Spatial
Rearrangement
CITY RISK • Open Public Access – based on
PROFILE
Riverwalk
Hazard Zoning
• Flood Protection
• Park Upgrade
Along Winongo
RESILIENT OPTIONS Corridor
• Sanitation
• Upgrading • Solid Waste Management
• Redevelopment • New Hotel Development
• New town • In-situ Relocation
• Restoration
Figure 6. Risk diagnostic followed by continued “risk and resilience conversation”.
61
The Pre-Feasibility Study outlined, among others, the issues related to different segments of
the river, potential themes for redevelopment, and specific potentially transformative priority
projects. Along the Winongo River corridor, eight communities have already organized
themselves to manage the area. Each community is part of the conceptual development and
planning process.
POTENTIAL THEMES SUMMARY OF ISSUES
Problems:
• Area floods regurarly (worst
Nature Tourism within project area)
• Recreation/Sport Activities • Housing in floodplain
including Outbond
North • Inequality
• Dam for Water Activities Opportunities:
• Reflection Areas (forested park, Nature • Available (agricultural) Land =
bathing areas, etc.) candidate for relocation?
• Floodplain restoration • Scenic windng river
• Some F&B to support tourist • Near existing Karangwaru
• Riverwalk
• Significant institutions
Commercial Tourism Problems:
• Riverwalk with more Commercial Central • Most dense/crowded
nodes (F7B/markets) Commercial • Few roads and crossings
• 1st Phase of Kampung Opportunities
Wisata fourism walk within • Most central location to tourist
neighborhood • Gateway bridge and open space
• Performance Theather • Existing markets, Cokro retail
• Existing “theater”, museums.
Problems:
Cultural Tourism South • Water quality worsens
• Riverwalk with cultural focus downstream
• Art&Craft Market?
Arts & Opportunities:
• Also some nature tourism? Culture • Close to kraton/Taman Sari &
• Riverwalk with gentle topo, Heritage Attractions
dam/waterfall, enhance parks • School, theater, museum
• Craft production
• Accor project/fish market?
Figure 7. Issues and Potential Themes for Redevelopment of Winongo River, Yogyakarta.
62
As illustration, the central segments of the river have been designated as commercial areas for
community-based tourism, featuring traditional neighborhoods or “kampung” walks. Under such
plans, basic infrastructure for accessibility must be provided, and attractions as well as landscaping
further upgraded. Also required in the plan: improvements to existing embankments, construction
of pedestrian areas with proper drainage and sanitation, and development of commercial strips to
accommodate community businesses.
The Winongo Riverwalk Pre-Feasibility Study, carried out by AECOM (2014) and supported by the
World Bank, estimated between USD 94 to USD 157 million for the costs for resilient redevelopment.
This investment was estimated to bring economic benefits of between USD 30-70 million annually, or
USD 200-450 million total, capitalized at 15% over the life of the project. The calculations were based
primarily on commercial spending from tourists, and do not take into account additional benefits such
as improved health, economic productivity, flood prevention, increased property value, and improved
transit and mobility.
Tourist Streets & Kampung Walks

Certain streets should be given signage and landscape treatment to allow for these
connections between the different attractions, the commercial areas and the hotels.
Kampung Walk Tourism (Kampung Wisata)
Figure 8. Illustrative concept of ‘Kampung” walk along, Winongo River.

63
500
450
400
350
USD Millions
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Cost Financial Economic Cost Financial Economic
Benefit Impact Benefit Impact
Lower Estimate Higher Estimate
Figure 10. Summary of illustrative costs-benefits of Winongo riverwalk redevelopment
According to Indonesia’s spatial planning regulations, each city is required to develop a detailed spatial
plan at the scale of 1:5,000, including in areas with high population density such as the Winongo river
zone. The detailed spatial plans typically outline designations of land use or zoning regulations, which
broadly include settlement (low and high density), green open space, and river buffer zone, commercial
areas, etc. Under the existing planning hierarchy, exceptions to the general zoning (e.g., using part green
open space to accommodate settlements) can only be done through the development of Building and
Neighborhood Development Plans, also known as the RTBL (Rencana Tata Bangunan dan Lingkungan).
The RTBL provides an opportunity to codify existing spatial solutions needed for redevelopment into the
formal spatial plan. It requires high resolution maps at scales of up to 1:2,000.
Once a target area is identified and options for resilience selected, collaborative geospatial investigation
is carried out by local technical agencies and community, in order to identify areas where adjustment
and/or exception to the existing spatial plan is required to reduce the vulnerability. This exercise is called
Collaborative Hazard Microzoning delineation.
64
Identification Field hazard Thematic maps
of secondary data and
stakeholders mapping
delineation and interview verification workshop
Land-use zoning GIS studio work

Map validation recommendation to find to produce quality
local spatial solution geospatial
Figure 9. Process of Hazard Microzoning.
65
Hazard Microzoning is a detailed geo-
referenced thematic mapping (1:2,000
in scale) capturing existing hazards.
It includes geographical, socio-
economical, and structural profiles of
an area, such as land use parcels and
status, i.e. settlements, commerce,
public utilities, open space, etc.; key
assets and basic infrastructures; and
natural features i.e. river, swamp, bushes,
etc. The high resolution map provides
a better understanding of the spatial
distribution of disaster vulnerabilities and
also enables stock-taking of available
space where measures to reduce risk and
improve resiliency can be undertaken.
Such measures may include construction
of flood control structures, such as
embankment, small water retention
and overflow areas, as well as the
rearrangement of settlements to create
space for water. This process is about
finding local solutions to reduce disaster
and climate risks.
Collaborative hazard microzoning along
the Winongo River -- one of Yogyakarta’s
largest rivers -- had produced thematic
maps which identify likely hazards to be
incorporated in the RTBL. One output
of hazard microzoning, for example,
Figure 10. A thematic map illustrating one segment of identifies structures located within hazard
Winongo River. zones, and also available land parcels for
in situ relocation.
66
The hazard microzoning and the Pre-Feasibility Study identified several structural measures
and environment revitalization that will help increase resiliency. This multi-discipline
analysis, involving a diverse group of experts from economists, environmentalists,
hydrologists, community development specialists, legal advocates as well as community
representatives. With the help of experts and planners, the community and the government
can manifest their vision of riverwalk redevelopment.
Figure 11. Selected renderings of proposed design in Winongo (AECOM, 2014).
67
After
Before After
Figure 12A. River redevelopment in Karang Waru, Winongo implemented by the community under the
Neighborhood Development (ND) Program of the National Government.
Previous urban upgrading investments made along the Winongo river have provided concrete examples
of how redevelopment on riverbank areas can increase resilience to flood and landslide risks. Figure 12
A and B provide illustrative examples of the upgrading projects.
68
The Winongo River case study in Yogyakarta demonstrates the
case for investing in resilience, and that it can be initiated within
the city’s existing development programs, as well as other relevant
government investments in municipalities. The Disaster and
Climate Risk Rapid Diagnostic has helped cities identify risks
and select development corridors where resilient investments
can be implemented, without necessarily creating Disaster Risk
Management specific projects such as flood protection programs.
Many resilience-building investments can be integrated within
urban redevelopment spaces, such as along densely populated
river corridors. For example, segment number 1 out of the 8
segments within the Winongo River has been selected as a pilot
site for the Ministry of Public Works and Housing’s National
Slum Upgrading Program. The community-based Winongo
Redevelopment Plan enables the city to implement investment
plans for the designated segment. For fiscal year 2015, an
estimated of IDR 10 billion has been allocated for Slum Upgrading
Investment, which will improve access to basic service delivery,
promote positive externalities of lower-income households,
generate local income and reduce the area’s vulnerability to
disasters risk and climate change. The Rapid Risk Diagnostic has
provided the impetus for the city government and stakeholders
to embark on conversation on disaster risks – and this has led to
concrete investments towards urban resilience.
Figure 12B. River redevelopment projects implemented by the

Community with support from the City Government budget.
69
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76
77
The Book was developed based on the experiences of conducting disaster
and climate risk rapid diagnostic in the cities of Balikpapan, Denpasar,
Makassar, Palembang, Semarang and Yogyakarta in Indonesia around
2013. The rapid diagnostic produced city risk profiles which were used
as dialogue and conversation tool by the city government and their
stakeholders on addressing their most significant risk through resilient
urban investment.
The Book summarizes the risk profile and resilience options in each city as
well as provide illustrative example of concrete resilient urban investment,
primarily through risk sensitive land use zoning, urban upgrading, and
ecosystem management/rehabilitation using Yogyakarta as case example.
It also serves as practical implementation in Indonesia of the World Bank’s
Building Urban Resilience in East Asia framework, 2013.

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Cover photo : Iwan Gunawan

1. Urbanization And Disaster And Climate Vulnerabilities In Indonesia 2

2. Framework For Building Urban Resilience 6

3. Rapid Risk Diagnostic as a Step Towards Building Urban Resilience 8

4. Rapid Risk Diagnostic of 6 cities 10

With an average annual urbanization rate estimated at 4.1% between

Urbanization offers opportunities for Indonesia, potentially boosting

City management may lack core competencies to manage sustainable

In addition, Indonesia’s cities’ resilience to natural disasters has been

4.1% 54% 68%

for Urban RESILIENCE

Figure 1. Urbanization, Disaster and Climate Vulnerability , and Resilience

Figure 3. Building Blocks of Urban Resilience.

To initiate urban resilience building efforts, risk assessment needs to be

Figure 4. City Rapid Risk Diagnostic leading to Detailed Assessment.

Figure 5. Flow of city rapid risk diagnostic.

Figure 6. Index map of pilot cities

The aim of this disaster and climate profiling is three-

270C 555-973 mm/

555,579 1,32% 4.07% 1,107.85 people/

Population Growth Rate Poverty Rate Population density

Most of Balikpapan’s population live in Balikpapan Tengah sub-district – the center of

Sub-Central Business District

Sub-District Population Center

Existing Growth Trends

Emerging Growth Trends

Kariangau Industrial Expansion Zone

Reclamation Expansion Zone

% LAND USE IN NON-BUILT UP AREAS

Floods affecting the river basin and lowland

Fires occur mostly in areas with higher

1,318.66 Ha 29,657 Ha 20,028.94 Ha 85%

West Balikpapan East Balikpapan

Medium Density Central Balikpapan flooding and sea level rise.

(35-110 person/Ha) Both investments will affect

the natural carrying capacity

of the areas and increase risks

West Balikpapan North Balikpapan

Penajam Paser Utama

Risk-based infrastructure investment planning options include continuing investments on

270C 260 mm/

1,352,136 1,65% 6,330 people/

Population Growth Rate Population density

42% % LAND USE

Fire events have increased over the years, mostly in highly

Whirlwind of 50 to 60 kilometers per hour affect residential areas in

The Center Point of

SUNGUMINASA Flood Medium Density

Sea Level Rise

Seaport expansion Airport

Fire Mitigation Plan/

Urban ecosystem management measure are needed, such as revitalization of mangrove

270C 167-250 mm/

1,455,284 1,76% 0,14% 4,800 people/

Population Growth Rate Poverty Rate Population Density

Sub-Central Business District

The land use is dominated by settlements, commercial

About 7,125 hectares of Palembang are susceptible to flooding; some

Subdistrict Gandus Subdistrict

Subdistrict Sematang Borang

Controling Urban Wetland Convertion