V ol. 18 No.

2 CH INES E JO U RN A L O F AER ON A U TICS M ay 2005

General Response Surface Reliability Analysis for Fuzzy Random

Uncertainty both in Basic Variables and in State Variables

L U Zhen zhou, SUN Jie

( School of A er onautics , Northw ester n Poly technical Uni versity , X i an 710072 , China)

Abstract: A general response surface( RS) met hod is pr esented for reliability analysis o f complex struc
tur e/ mechanism w ith fuzzy random uncertainty both in basic variables and in failure state variables. On
t he basis of equivalent transformation from fuzzy basic variable to random basic variable, the fuzziness
and randomness in the basic variables are considered simultaneously in t he presented general RS method.
O nce the fuzzy basic variables are transformed into the random basic var iables, the conv entional RS
method is employed to establish the g ener al RS for the complex structur e/ mechanism w ith implicit limit
state equation by finite element numerical simulation. F urt hermore, the general failure probability is de
fined accor ding to t he probability formula for fuzzy random ev ent by taking the fuzziness and randomness
in the failure safety state into consideration, and an appropriate fuzzy oper ator is adopted to calculate the
g eneral failur e pr obability for the complex structur e/ mechanism with mult iple implicit failure modes. Fi
nally, a g eneral reliability analysis of an elastic linkage mechanism is introduced to illustrate t he pr esent
method.
Key words: r eliability analysis; fuzzy; random; general response sur face; elastic linkage
考虑状态 与基本变量随机模糊性的 广义响 应面可 靠性分析 . 吕 震宙, 孙颉. 中国航 空学报 ( 英 文
版) , 2005, 18( 2) : 116- 121.
摘 要: 针对复杂结构、机构可靠性分析中的隐式极限状态方程, 建立了 可以同时考 虑基本变 量和
失效 安全 状态随机模糊双重不确定性因素的广义响 应面可靠性 分析方法。该 方法采用 模糊基 本
变量的等效随机化变换, 在不改变基 本变量 模糊分 布的情况 下, 建立了 基于有 限元分析 的复杂 结
构、
机构多个随机 模糊基本变量情况下的广义响应 面法, 利用广义响 应面函数 和模糊随 机事件 概
率的计算公式, 定义了复杂结构、机构广义失效概率的计算公式, 并给出 了多个模式 情况下体 系同
时考虑状态和基本 变量随机模糊性的 广义失 效概率计 算公式。 在弹性 连杆机 构强度刚 度多模 式
广义可靠性分析的应用算例说明了所提方法的合理性。
关键词: 可靠性分析; 模糊; 随机; 广义响应面法; 弹性连杆
文章编号: 1000 9361( 2005) 02 0116 06 中图分类号: V215. 1 文献标识码: A

Since tw o uncert aint ies, randomness and present[ 1- 3]

fuzziness, ex ist in t he complex st ruct ure/ mecha
nism, it is necessary to establish a general reliabili
t y met hod by t aking these t wo kinds of uncert ain
t ies into account . During t he past tw o decades, t he
g eneral reliability met hods have developed univer
sally. T he available general reliabilit y researches
can be classified in tw o categories. T he f irst cate
gory is devot ed to research t he effect of the fuzzy
st ate variable on t he failure probabilit y of t he struc
t ure/ mechanism, which is developed mat urely at
R eceived dat e: 2004 05 08; R evision received dat e: 2004 11 18
Foundation it em: Aviat ion Base Science Foundat ion( 00B53010) , A eronaut ical S cience Foundation( N 3CH0502) and Shaanxi Province N atural
Science Foundation( N 3CS0501)
. T he second research is t o invest igate
the eff ect of the additional f uzzy basic variables on
the failure probability of t he st ruct ure/ m echanism.
T he lat ter cat egory is principally based on t he dis
cret ization met hod[ 4, 5] , and the general reliabilit y is
transformed t o t he random reliability by introduc
ing t he probabilit y densit y funct ion in the dis
cret ization. In Ref. [ 6] , t he equivalent t ransf or
mat ion from fuzziness to randomness is employed t o
analyze the general reliabilit y. By summarizing t he
precious w orks on the general reliabilit y, it is found

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 Gen eral R esponse Surf ace R eliability Analysis for Fuzzy R andom
M ay 2005 U ncert aint y both in Basic V ariables and in St at e V ariables ∀ 117 ∀

that few references are concerned w it h the case in of x j ( j = n f+ 1, n f+ 2, , n ) . Based on t he equal

w hich t he fuzzy and random uncert ainties ex ist ent ropy of fuzzy uncert aint y and random uncert ain
both in t he basic variables and in the st at e vari t y, Eq. ( 1) is used to transform the FPD int o t he
[ 6]
ables. T he present paper discusses t he above case PDF equivalent ly ,
for t he complex st ruct ure/ m echanism. For t he i( xi)
f i( xi) = i = 1, 2, , n f ( 1)
fuzziness in the basic variables, t he equivalent
transformat ion f rom t he fuzzy basic variable to t he
! i( x i ) dx i

where f i ( x i ) denot es t he equivalent PDF corre

random basic variable is used, w here t he form of
sponding to t he i th fuzzy v ariable x i . Once all t he
the fuzzy possibilit y distribution ( usually referred
fuzzy basic variables are t ransformed t o t he random
to m embership funct ion ) is unchangeable. T hen
variables, Eq. ( 2) can be applied t o calculate t he
the g eneral reliability is t ransf orm ed to the random
general failure probability for a failure mode w ith
reliabilit y reasonably and the g eneral limit st at e e
n f f uzzy variables and n- n f random variables[ 7] ,
quat ion can be const ructed by t he t radit ional re n
f n

! !
sponse surf ace ( RS) met hod based on the finit e ele
Pf = f i ( xi) f j ( x j ) dx 1 dx 2 dx n
ment analysis for t he complex st ruct ure/ mecha f i= 1 j = n+ 1
f

nism. Once the approx im at e analyt ical relationship ( 2)

bet ween t he state variables and t he basic variables where f is t he failure region defined by t he sing le
is obt ained, the general f ailure probability can be failure mode.
calculated for t he sing le fuzzy f ailure mode, w here As m modes are included in t he complex
the f uzziness of the state variable is considered and struct ure/ mechanism syst em, Eq. ( 2) is rew ritt en
the probabilit y formula of t he fuzzy random event as f ollow ing,
n
is employed. F or the multiple fuzzy failure modes f n

of t he structure/ mechanism syst em, the f uzzy op P f, ( s) = ! ! f,s i= 1

f i( xi)
j = n+ 1
f
f j ( x j ) dx 1 dx 2 dx n
erat ors are used t o calculat e t he general failure
( 3)
probability of t he system. At last, an example of e
where P f, ( s) is t he general failure probability of t he
last ic linkage mechanism ex plains t he eng ineering
system w ith m failure modes, and f, s is the f ail
application of t he present met hod.
ure reg ion defined by t he m failure modes.
1 Equivalent T ransform ation from F uzzy
2 General Reliability by T aking the F uzzy
Variable to Random Variable and the
Random U ncert ainties both in the Basic
General Reliability under M ultiple Vari
Variables and in the State Variables into
able
Account
T he basic variables, such as applied loads, ge
ometrical dimensions and material properties etc. , T he t radit ional reliability is established on t he
binary state assumpt ion, where t he boundary be
are assumed as x i ( i = 1, 2, , n ) for t he complex
t w een t he safet y region and the failure region is e
st ruct ure/ m echanism. For taking f uzzy random
uncertaint y into account , the former n f ( n f < n ) laborated by t he limit st at e equation. Obviously,

basic variables, i . e. , x i ( i = 1, 2, , n f ) , are as this binary st at e assumpt ion cannot incorporate t he

sumed as fuzzy variables, and t he latt er n- n f ba gradual failure process reasonably. H ence t he fuzzi

sic variables, i . e. , x i ( i = n f + 1, n f + 2, , n), ness should be introduced to t he f ailure state and

are assumed as random variables. i ( x i ) ( i = 1, 2, the safety state.

, n f ) is the fuzzy possibility dist ribut ions( F PD)
of x i ( i = 1, 2, , n f ) ; f j ( x j ) ( j = n f+ 1, n f+ 2,
, n ) is t he probabilit y density funct ions ( PDF)
!
f
( g) is used to describe t he membership of
the state variable g to the fuzzy failure reg ion,
which characterizes t he gradual process f rom saf et y

© 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license. http://www.cnki.net
 ∀ 118 ∀ LU Zhen zhou, SU N Jie CJA

st ate to failure st at e. ! ( g)
s
is the membership of P r, ( s) , when t wo uncert aint ies, i . e. , fuzziness
the state variable g to t he f uzzy safet y reg ion, then and randomness, ex ist both in t he basic variables
!( g ) = 1 - ! ( g ) . After the fuzziness of t he and in the state variables simult aneously.
st ate variable is considered, t he general failure If the analytical relat ionship bet ween t he state
probability P f may be rew ritt en in Eq. ( 4) corre variables and t he basic variables is known, the nu
sponding to Eq. ( 2) for t he sing le f ailure mode, merical integrat ion and t he numerical simulat ion
and t he general reliability is calculat ed by Eq. ( 5) , can be applied to obtain P f, ( s) and P r, ( s) in Eqs.
n
f n ( 6) and ( 10) respect ively . Eq. ( 11) uses ex pecta
Pf = !! i= 1
f∀i ( x i )
j= n + 1
f
f j ( xj ) !f t ion of sam ples t o evaluat e the P f, ( s) ,
N m

∃
( g( x 1 , x 2 , , x n ) ) dx 1 dx 2 dx n ( 4) 1 #
# f, ( s) =
P j= 1
!
fj
[ gj ( x k ) ] ( 11)
n
f n
N k= 1

Pr = !! i= 1
f∀i ( x i )
j= n + 1
f
f j ( xj) !s # f, ( s) is the approximate evaluat ion of
where P
P f, ( s) , and N is t he t otal number of the samples
( g( x 1 , x 2 , , x n ) ) dx 1 dx 2 dx n ( 5)
taken from t he equivalent joint probabilit y densit y
If m failure modes are included in a syst em, n
f n

the general failure probability P f, ( s) and reliabilit y funct ion i= 1

f i ( x i ) j= n+ 1
f j ( x j ) of t he fuzzy / ran
f
P r, ( s) for the syst em w ith m series f ailure modes, dom basic variables.
w here ! fj and ! sj ( j = 1, 2, , m ) are used t o de Generally, the numerical relat ionship bet ween
not e t he fuzzy f ailure region corresponding t o j th the st at e variables and the basic variables is know n,
failure mode, can be calculated by Eqs. ( 6) and but the analy tical one is unknown. In this case,
( 7) , the traditional response surface met hod mig ht be
n
n m
employed to est ablish t he approx imate analyt ical
!!
f

P f, ( s) = f i( xi) f j ( xj ) j #
= 1
!
fj
( gj ) ∀
i= 1 j= n + 1
f
relat ionship and simplify the calculat ion of P f, ( s) .
dx 1 dx 2 dx n ( 6) Once t he f uzzy basic variables are t ransformed int o
n n m the random basic variables equivalently by Eq.
!!
f

P r, ( s) = f i( xi ) f j( xj ) j∃
= 1
!
sj
( gj ) ∀ ( 1) , g j = g j ( x ) , t he approximate analyt ical ex
i= 1 j= n + 1
f
pression of g j = g j ( x ) , can be obt ained by t he it
dx 1 dx 2 dx n ( 7)
erat ive response surface met hod. Subst itute g i ( x )
w here g j = g j ( x 1 , x 2 , , x n ) ( j = 1, 2, , m ) is
into Eq. ( 6) , P f, ( s) can be calculat ed easily. On
the j th st at e variable corresponding t o the j th f ail
the ot her hand, once t he probabilit y densit y func
ure mode. !
fj
( g j ) and !
sj
( g j ) indicat e t he
t ion f G j ( gj ) of t he j t h st at e variable is obtained
memberships of the st ate variable g i to t he j th
approx im ately by numerical simulation, P fj , t he
fuzzy failure reg ion ! fj and fuzzy safety region ! sj
general f ailure probability of t he j t h f ailure mode,
respectively. Sy mbols % # & and % ∃& are t he oper
may be calculated by Eq. ( 12) , and t he boundary
ators t aking max imum and minimum. For t he j th
of P f, ( s) , the g eneral f ailure probability of the sys
failure mode, ! sj ( g j ) is t he com pensat ion of ! fj ∀
t em, may be obtained in Eq. ( 13) by the first or
( g j ) , i . e. , Eq. ( 8) holds
der reliability method for the series syst em,
! ( gj ) = 1 - ! ( gj ) ( 8) + ∋

!f
sj fj
Pf j = G ( gj ) ! ( gj ) dg j ( 12)
T hen t he follow ing equations hold apparent ly by - ∋ j fj

m
use of t he definit ions of the above operators. m

m m
P fj < P f, ( s) ( Mj = in
1
( P fj ) ( 13)
#
j= 1
!
fj
( gj ) = 1 - j ∃
= 1
!
sj
( gj ) ( 9) j= 1

P f, ( s) = 1 - P r, ( s) ( 10) 3 Exam ple

Eq. ( 10) show s that the compensation of P f, ( s) is An elast ic linkag e mechanism in a plane is

© 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license. http://www.cnki.net
 Gen eral R esponse Surf ace R eliability Analysis for Fuzzy R andom
M ay 2005 U ncert aint y both in Basic V ariables and in St at e V ariables ∀ 119 ∀

shown in Fig%1. T he sect ion of t he linkage is

round. T he diamet ers of four linkages are assumed
as random basic variables, and the rotating speed of
the active linkage is assumed as t he f uzzy basic
v ariable. By taking t he randomness and fuzziness
both in the basic variables and in t he state variables
into account, the g eneral f ailure probabilit ies of t he
single st reng th f ailure mode, sing le st if fness failure
mode and multiple st rengt h st if fness syst em failure
modes are discussed. T he ef fects of t he member
F ig. 2 T he g eneral failure probability of
ship f orm and paramet er on t he general failure
the st rength failur e mode
probability are invest igat ed.

Fig. 1 4 Linkage F ig. 3 T he g eneral failure probability of

the st iffness failur e mode
3. 1 Effect of the membership form on the gener
al failure probability
T he f orm of the membership describing t he
fuzziness of t he failure/ safe region has sig nificant
eff ect on the g eneral f ailure probabilit y. It should
be select ed by t he st at ist ics of the subjective inf or
mat ion. In t he paper, t hree forms are selected, i .
e. , linear membership, Cauchy membership and
normal membership[ 8] , as exam ples t o investigate
the eff ect s of t he mem bership forms.
F ig s. 2 4 show t he effects of t he membership F ig. 4 T he system general failure probability of
forms on the general failure probabilit y in dif ferent multi failur e mode
cases. Symbols F L , F C and F N express t he result s
most movement time, t he general failure probabili
corresponding t o linear, Cauchy and normal mem
t ies are bigger t han t he failure probabilit ies wit hout
berships respect ively in Figs. 2 4, and symbol M in
consideration of fuzziness in t he state variables,
F igs. 2 4 show s t he results w ithout considerat ion of
which shows t he conservat ive results of t he general
the fuzziness in the state variable.
failure probability . T he except ive non conservat ive
F rom F igs. 2 4, t he follow ing can be conclud
result about the general failure probabilit y appears
ed: ( 1) T he f ailure probabilit ies along w ith t he
at t he f irst movement t ime point , and it is resulted
movement time of the linkage have t he same t rend
from t he precision of the approximate response sur
for four cases, i . e. , F L, F C , F N and M ; ( 2) At

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 ∀ 120 ∀ LU Zhen zhou, SU N Jie CJA

f ace met hod and can be reduced by t he improved

response surface met hod.
3. 2 Effects of the membership parameter on the
general failure probability
T he effect s of t he membership paramet ers on
the g eneral f ailure probabilities of t he st if fness f ail
ure mode are show n in Fig%5 and F ig%6. T he
memberships of t he normal, linear and Cauchy
forms are g iven in Eqs. ( 14) - ( 16) respect ively,
1 g ( BL
Fig . 6 T he general failure probabilit y varies with L / C
! (g) = 2
f g - BL under linear/ Cauchy state membership function
exp - g > BL

( 14) 4 Conclusions
1 g ( BL
Based on t he equivalent transformation from
L- g
!
f
( g) = L - BL BL < g < L ( 15) the fuzzy uncert aint y to t he random one and t he

0 g )L probability of f uzzy random event, the general re

sponse surface method is present ed by t aking t he
1 g ( BL
fuzziness and random ness both in basic variables
! (g) = C
f
g > BL and in state variable int o account simultaneously,
C + 10( g - BL) 2
( 16) and t he calculation of general f ailure probabilit y is
w here the bott om lim it BL takes 0 for the sake of invest igated. T he applicat ion of the presented

conservation. Fig%5 gives t he t rend f or t he general met hod on an elastic linkage elaborat es t he f easibili

failure probability along wit h t he paramet ers , t he
shape paramet er of t he norm al m embership. Fig%6
g ives t he t rend for general failure probability along
w it h L and C, t he shape paramet er of t he linear
and Cauchy mem bership.
t y and t he validit y. It should be pointed out that
the effect s of the mem bership f orms and param eters
on the general failure probabilit y are significant . In
order to obt ain an accurat e result , it needs large
amount of informat ion to det erm ine t he member
ship. T he discussion of t he ef fects of membership
forms and paramet ers on the general f ailure proba
bility can provide a guidance for engineer applica
t ion.

Fig. 5 T he general failure probability varies with
under normal state membership function
It is shown t hat t he general failure probabili
t ies increase as t he increase of t he fuzzy failure re
g ions result ed from t he increase of t he parameters
, L and C .
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Biographies:
LU Zhen zhou Born in Huang shi
Hubei Province in 1966, she receiv ed B.
S. and M . S. from N orthw ester n Po ly
technical U niversity ( N PU ) in 1988 and
1990 respectively. She received doctor al
deg ree in 1993. She is now a pro fessor
and doctoral student superviso r in NPU .
Her research interests include reliability engineering, aircraft
structure design and associated technolo gies. T el: ( 029)
88460480, E mail: zhenzhoulu@ nwpu. edu. cn.
SUN Jie Born in Lu shi Henan Prov ince
in 1978, he received B. S. in mechanical
engineering in 2002 from N orth China
Institute of Water Conserv ancy and Hy
dr oelectric Po wer ( N CWU ) , and then
became a master candidate of N PU . His
r esearch interests include r eliability engi
neering and associated technologies. T el: ( 029) 88460480,
E mail: chinasunjie@ ho tmail. com.

© 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license. http://www.cnki.net